This is actually a part of Monsoon of Pakistan page

Date of issue  - August 31

Week long rains may cause flooding situation in Sindh

Low pressure in the Arabian sea – Another over Chhatisgarh

*Low pressure over coastal Gujarat and north-eastern Arabian sea is now over north-eastern Arabian sea, it may intensify further into a well-marked low pressure area in 24 to 48 hours (No threat of tropical activity). Yesterday’s low pressure over Orissa coast and Bay of Bengal is now over Chhattisgarh, it may move towards south-eastern Sindh on September 3 night.

*More thundershowers are expected in Sindh and south Punjab during the next few days with isolated heavy falls. Rains will be accompanied by strong winds especially in Sindh. Heavy falls may create flash flooding situation in the districts of Thatta, Mirpur Khas and Badin of Sindh, while chances of mild urban flooding in Karachi and Hyderabad during the current week. Isolated thundeshowers with scattered moderate falls are now also expected in Islamabad, North Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir till 24 to 36 hours. Monsoon has been very active in the monsoon belt of Pakistan especially Sindh during the last 24 hours.

*3 people have died in Sindh on August 30 due to heavy rainfalls while 20 people are injured in Thatta due to strong winds and heavy rainfall. The death toll is now 203 since June 25. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in few cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Multan got TR.
• Murree got TR.
• Sindh
• Padidan got 238 mm.
• Dadu got 130 mm.
• Nawabshah got 70 mm.
• Larkana got 48 mm.
• Sukkur got 38 mm.
• Mithi got 33 mm.
• Moen-jo-Daro got  23 mm.
• Hyderabad got 15 mm.
• Badin got 7 mm.
• Karachi got 5 mm.
• Balochistan
• Kalat got 21 mm.
• Zhob got 10 mm.
• Lasbella got 6 mm.
• Barkhan got 1 mm.

Date of issue – August 30

Threat of urban flooding in Karachi and Hyderabad due to week long rains

Flash flooding threat in South-eastern Sindh persist

Moon will be visible in Gwadar

*Eid’s Moon might be only visible in Balochistan especially in the coastal cities of the province that is Gwadar.

*Yesterday’s UAC over Gujarat moved to coastal Gujarat and north-eastern Arabian sea as a low pressure area (no tropical activity is expected),  while yesterday’s low pressure is now over Orissa and adjoining Bay of Bengal, moving in western direction.

*More thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected in Sindh and south Punjab, heavy falls may cause urban flooding in Karachi and Hyderabad, while flash flooding in Mirpur Khas and Badin districts. Winds across Sindh will be fast to strong. Overall the 5th monsoon spell will continue the whole week in Sindh due to the development of a low pressure area near Sindh. Monsoon moisture from Sindh will also affect south Punjab, where thundershowers with chances of isolated heavy falls persist too. However isolated thundershowers are expected in Islamabad, Khyber and Kashmir till 24 to 48 hours.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in few cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Multan got TR.
• Khyber
• Kakul got 1 mm.
• Parachinar got 8 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 22 mm.
• Nawabshah got 55 mm.
• Hyderabad got 4 mm.
• Mirpur Khas got 14 mm.
• Chhor got 19 mm.
• Balochistan
• Lasbella got 45 mm.

Date of issue – August 29

Thunderstorms in Sindh as forecasted by PWP – More expected!

*5th monsoon spell hits Sindh on August 29 as forecasted by PWP on August 26. Thundershowers with isolated moderate/heavy falls lashed various parts of Sindh including Karachi.

*Upper air cyclonic circulations over Madya Pradesh now over Gujarat and adjoining area. Fresh low pressure over the north-western sector of Bay of Bengal and adjoining area forms.

*Thunder/Rainfall with few moderate/heavy falls expected in Northern and Southern Punjab while isolated thundershowers are also expected in Islamabad, Kashmir and Khyber till 48 hours. More thundershowers with few isolated/scattered heavy falls expected in many parts of Sindh till 48 hours. In Karachi, there are chances of rainfall with isolated heavy falls on August 29 night and August 30.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in few cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 3 mm.
• Punjab
• Murree got 16 mm.
• Faisalabad got 13 mm.
• Bahawalpur got 9 mm.
• Sahiwal got 13 mm.
• Khyber
• Peshawar got 6 mm.
• Parachinar got 30 mm.
• Risalpur got 8 mm.
• Sindh
• Chhor got 19 mm.
• Hyderabad and Badin TR.
• Diplo got 33 mm.
• Balochistan
• Lasbella got 8 mm.

Date of issue – August 28

200 people lost their lives in weather-related incidents since June 25: PWP Media

Flooding threat persists in Sindh – Flash floods in FATA now

*Yesterday’s Upper air cyclonic circulations over Madya Pradesh that moved from Orissa is over south-west Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. Another UAC is over north-western Rajasthan, while another has formed in the Bay of Bengal’s north-western sector.

*Rainfall with isolated heavy falls expected in Islamabad, Punjab (North and South), Khyber (scattered heavy falls at few places) and Kashmir. Heavy rainfall in Khyber might create flash flooding situation in the province. These rainfall will continue till 4 to 5 days but there intensity is likely to slightly decrease after 2 to 3 days. In Sindh, monsoon moisture has started penetrating in the province under that influence thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected in the various parts of the province on August 29 and then increase is expected. Flooding threat persists especially in the already flood-hit regions in the province. In Karachi, chances of rainfall with isolated heavy falls expected from August 29 evening/night.

*5 people have died due to flash flooding in Landi Kotal area of FATA, death toll rises to 200 since June 25.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in few cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 2 mm.
• Punjab
• Sialkot got 89 mm.
• Murree got 29 mm.
• Lahore got 2 mm.
• Multan gto 3 mm.
• Khyber
• Parachinar 5 mm.
• Peshawar got 6 mm.
• Balochistan
• Kalat got 11 mm.

Date of issue – August 27

“Flood threat in south-eastern Sindh this week due to the expected heavy downpour”

*Upper air cyclonic circulations in the north-west Bay of Bengal along Orissa coast, intensified into a low pressure area over Orissa after moving slightly westwards. Yesterday’s western trough moves into India’s Kashmir.

*More thundershowers at times heavy expected in Islamabad, Punjab (North and South), Khyber and Kashmir. These rainfalls will continue till 4 to 5 days and then a decrease is expected. Frequent heavy showers may cause flooding situation in the these parts. Monsoon moisture will shift to southern parts of Pakistan during the next 36 to 48 hours. Under that influence, widespread heavy rainfalls are expected across Sindh from August 29 till 3 to 4 days and then a decrease is expected. In Karachi, heavy rainfall is expected from August 30 morning till 2 to 3 days after that decrease is expected. Overall heavy rainfall would cause flooding situation in south-eastern Sindh.

*Two people died in Punjab due to collapse of houses caused by dust storm, thus death toll rises to 195 since June 25.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in few cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 48 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got TR.
• Multan got 14 mm.
• Balochistan
• Quetta got 5 mm.
• Khyber
• Parachinar got 5 mm.

Date of issue – August 26

*A fresh UAC in north-west Bay of Bengal along the Orissa coasts. Western trough moving to India.

*More thundershowers at times isolated heavy expected in Islamabad, North-east Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir. Chances of light rainfall/showers in South Punjab while partly cloudy with drizzle in Sindh. 64 people have lost their lives in Kohistan now, death toll rises to 193 since June 25.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got traces.
• Punjab
• Jhelum got 7 mm.
• Bahawalpur got 14 mm.
• Multan got traces.
• Khyber
• Kohat got 240 mm.
• Parachinar got 60 mm.
• Peshawar got 73 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 14 mm.
• Hyderabad got TR.
• Larkana got 2 mm.
• Sukkur got 3 mm.

Date of issue – August 25

Moderate rainfall in Karachi!

4th monsoon spell starts in Sindh as forecasted by PWP!

“16 people dead as flash floods re-visit Kashmir: PWP Media”

*UAC over Punjab dissipated, while another UAC over North Chattisgarh and Utter Pradesh, a fresh UAC has formed over north-west Bay of Bengal along Orissa coast.

*Due to the presence of western trough and interaction between monsoon moisture, there are chances of isolated very heavy rainfall in Upper parts mainly Khyber, Giglit and Kashmir during the next 48 hours. Rainfall with chances of isolated heavy falls in Islamabad, Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Multan and other adjoining cities) till 36 to 48 hours. In Sindh, more rainfall with moderate falls are expected in Karachi, Thatta, Keti Bander, Hyderabad and with chances of isolated heavy falls in Mirpur Khas and Badin, while scattered light rainfall with chances of few isolated moderate falls also expected in Sukkur district in 24 hours. Some stray thunderstorms might form over Balochistan that could cause unseasonal rainfall in some parts due to interaction between western trough and monsoon moisture.

*Death toll rises in Pakistan due to weather related incidents since June 25 as flash flooding in northern Pakistan have killed some 16 people, the death toll is now 145 since June 25. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got TR.
• Punjab
• Jhelum got 72.6 mm.
• Sialkot got 32.4 mm.
• Lahore got 12.7 mm.
• Khyber
• Kohat got 54 mm.
• Parachinar got 15 mm.
• Cherat got 5 mm.
• Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 91.6 mm.
• Mangla got 57 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 0.5 mm.
• Hyderabad got TR.
• Nawabshah got TR.

Date of issue – August 24

PWP upgrades 4th monsoon spell for Sindh from ”very high” to “extremely high”. 

*Upper air cyclonic circulations over Utter Pradesh moves to East Punjab now over Pakistan’s  Punjab. A fresh UAC has formed in the Bay of Bengal along Orissa coast. A fresh western trough over Khyber and Gilgit extending to Jammu and Kashmir.

* Due to the likely interaction between western and eastern moisture, moderate rainfall with chances of isolated heavy falls are likely in Khyber, Northern Punjab including Lahore and Faisalabad, Gilgit region and Kashmir. Rainfall with chances of isolated heavy falls also likely in Islamabad till 48 hours. Overall this is the 6th monsoon spell in upper Pakistan and south Punjab. In the southern part of Punjab, moderate falls with chances of isolated heavy falls expected during the next 2 days including Multan.  In Sindh, 4th monsoon spell is likely to start after 24 to 36 hours, mainly from August 25 mid-day/evening. There are chances of isolated heavy falls especially in south-eastern parts while few parts of coastal Sindh that is Thatta district. Karachi may also get thunderstorm/rain during the same period.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Lahore got 25 mm.
• Sialkot got 18 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 47 mm.
• Khyber
• Parachinar got 3 mm.
• Kakul got 2 mm.

Date of issue – August 23

“Same forecast as predicted yesterday!”

*PWP upgrades 4th monsoon spell for Sindh to “very high”. Upper air cyclonic circulations over Utter Pradesh is moving westwards, sending monsoon moisture to Punjab and Kashmir. A fresh UAC might form in the Bay of Bengal along Orissa coast after few days, that may intensify into a low pressure area.

*Hot and dry in almost whole Pakistan in 24 hours after that the 6th monsoon spell will start in the upper parts of Pakistan that Islamabad, Punjab (both regions), Khyber and Kashmir. The spell will cause moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls with fast winds. Weather will remain hot and dry in Sindh in 48 hours, after 2 to 3 days the monsoon winds will to spread to southern parts of Pakistan and the 4th monsoon spell will begin in the Sindh province. Northern-eastern Balochistan might also see some showers after 2 to 3 days. As forecasted earlier by PWP, these monsoon spells are scattered in nature. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Sialkot got TR
• Khyber
• Parachinar got 2 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 7 mm.
• Chhor got 2 mm.
• Mithi got 17 mm.
• Balochistan
• Lasbella got 13 mm.

Date of issue – August 22

“Pakistan entering Active monsoon phase!”

*PWP forecasts 4th monsoon spell for Sindh to “high”. During the next few days, a fresh UAC might form in the Bay of Bengal along Orissa coast, that may intensify into a low pressure area.

*Hot and dry in almost whole Pakistan in 48 hours after that the 6th monsoon spell will start in Islamabad, Punjab (both regions), Khyber and Kashmir. The spell will cause moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls with fast winds. Weather will remain hot and dry in Sindh, after 3 to 4 days the monsoon winds to spread to southern parts of Pakistan and the 4th monsoon spell will begin in the Sindh province. Northern-eastern Balochistan might also see some showers after few days. Overall scattered rainy activity is likely to start in Pakistan in next 3 to 4 days and monsoon will enter active phase after few days. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Khyber
• Parachinar got 2 mm.
• Balakot got TR.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 8 mm.
• Hyderabad got 1 mm.
• Nawabshah got 34 mm.
• Moen-jo-Daro got 19 mm.
• Chhor got 16 mm.

Date of issue – August 21

“Thunderstorm/rain hits Karachi”

“Sindh under monsoon grip for 36 hours.”

“Fresh flooding in Badin and Kasur!”

*PWP upgraded the third monsoon forecast for Sindh which was forecasted since August 4 to “extremely high”. UAC over south-west Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. PWP successfully predicted the third monsoon forecast for Sindh as thundershowers occurred in various parts of the province including Karachi today. Under the next 24 hours, chances of more light/moderate showers likely in Sindh including Karachi till 36 hours (August 22 mid-day).

*Fresh flooding has hit Kasur, Punjab and Badin, Sindh as 8 and 20 villages have been sub-merged respectively. Monsoon intensity in upper parts of Pakistan has relaxed down since this morning, however some light showers expected in south Punjab and Kashmir. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Lahore got traces
• Noorpur got 70 mm.
• Kashmir
• Mangla got 11.
• Khyber
• Risalpur got traces.

Date of issue – August 20

Condition in Sindh worsens as 11 people die due to waterborne diseases

*PWP maintains third monsoon forecast for Sindh which was forecasted since August 4 to “moderate”. UAC over south-east Madya Pradesh.

*Monsoon moisture is present over upper parts of Pakistan therefore chances of isolated to scattered showers in few parts of Punjab in 24 hours while slim chances also present in Khyber and Kashmir. Hot and dry in Sindh in 24 hours, after that chances of light to moderate showers likely as 3rd monsoon spell likely to grip few parts of the province, mainly eastern Sindh for 48 hours. 11 people have lost there lives due to diseases caused by floods in Sindh as death toll from these floods rises from 30 to 41 while the overall death toll is 129 now. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 25 mm.
• Punjab
• Jhelum got 23 mm.
• Sargodha got 13 mm.
• Lahore got 7 mm.
• Khyber
• Kakul got 3 mm.
• Hunza got TR.
• Gilgit territory
• Gilgit got TR

Date of issue – August 19

*PWP maintains third monsoon forecast for Sindh which was forecasted since August 4 to “moderate”. UAC over Madya Pradesh and weakening rapidly, while another UAC over Orissa from Bay of Bengal moves to Chhattisgarh, it is moving westwards.

*Isolated to scattered showers may occur in one to two places of Punjab including Islamabad, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. Showers might cause some thunder/lightening in few places. Hot and dry likely in Sindh. In Karachi, the weather will remain partly cloudy with hot and humid afternoons. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Rainfall was below 15 mm in all parts of Pakistan
• Malam jabba got 12 mm.
• Islamabad got TR.

Date of issue – August 18

*PWP maintains third monsoon forecast for Sindh which was forecasted since August 4 to “moderate”. Yesterday’s low weakens into a Upper air cyclonic circulations over Utter Pradesh, while UAC over Assam moves into north-west Bay of Bengal.

*Isolated to scattered showers may occur in one to two places of Punjab including Islamabad, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. Showers might cause some thunder/lightening in few places. Hot and dry likely in Sindh including Karachi, temperatures might rise in few places. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Multan got traces.
• Faisalabad got 19 mm.
• Khyber
• Parachinar got 25.
• Else where it was hot and dry.

Date of issue – August 17

4 people lost their lives in Kashmir due to rainfall: PWP Media

*Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasted the third monsoon spell for Sindh on August 4. As of now it has been upgraded from “poor” to “moderate” status due to latest developments. Chances of rainfall this weekend across Sindh.

*Low pressure over north-west Utter Pradesh, fresh upper air cyclonic circulations over Assam and Bangladesh.

*5th monsoon is coming to an end in Upper Pakistan, more showers still likely in Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. Hot and dry in Sindh till next few days. Death toll rises to 118 in Pakistan. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 30 mm.
• Punjab
• Sargodha got 24 mm.
• Lahore got TR.
• Khyber
• Balakot got 9 mm.
• Peshawar got 7 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 7 mm.
• Sindh and Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – August 16

“2 people dead in eastern Sindh, death toll rises to 30 in eastern Sindh: PWP Media”

*Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasted the third monsoon spell for Sindh on August 4. As of now it is at “poor” status due to latest developments. It might be upgraded on August 17 night or August 18 morning.

*Well-marked low pressure weakened into a low pressure, it is present over south Haryana, it is not moving to Punjab as forecasted eariler due to the arrival of western trough from Pakistan. However heavy rainfall with isolated very heavy rainfall likely in North-western states of India due to this interaction.

*Monsoon moisture is entering some upper parts of Pakistan, thus isolated to scattered showers likely in Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. The 5th monsoon spell is continuing in upper parts which will end in 2 to 3 days. Hot and dry else where. In Karachi, some passing clouds will cover the sky. The death toll due to flash flooding in Sindh is now 30 and overall 114 people have lost their lives due to harsh weather since June 25 in Pakistan. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 6 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 4 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 4 mm also.
• Sialkot got 2 mm.
• Khyber
• Balakot got 22 mm.
• Parachinar got 2 mm.
• Sindh
• Chhor got 1 mm.
• Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – August 15

“2 lakh people affected in Sindh due to record-breaking rainfall: NDMA”

“112 peopled died since June 25: PWP Media”

*Second monsoon spell had hit Sindh on August 10 as forecasted by PWP on July 29. While the third monsoon spell for Sindh is “poor“, as per latest developments, PWP forecasted the third spell on August 4.

*Well-marked low pressure area over North-east Rajasthan moved to south Haryana and adjoining Utter Pradesh, this weather system may bring strong moisture laden winds to Punjab after causing heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall in New Delhi till next 2 to 3 days. The system is moving in NW direction.

*5th monsoon spell continues as western trough and monsoon moisture interacts in Upper Pakistan, however this will ease starting from August 15 night/August 16 morning as western trough moves into India. Under this influence isolated to scattered thundershowers with few heavy falls may occur in Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber and Kashmir till next 2 to 3 days with decrease each day.

*Widespread destruction is being reported from eastern Sindh due record-breaking rainfall few days back. 1 lakh people are said to be affected by reporters with 100 villages sub-merged while 34 people are killed in Sindh with 6 in Karachi due to incidents of roof collapsing. While for the same reason 2 people were killed in Punjab. Thus the death toll has been risen from 76 to 112 since June 25 in Pakistan due flash flooding, heat waves, wind storms and rain storms.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Lahore got 6 mm.
• Multan got TR.
• Bahawalpur got 3 mm.
• Khyber
• Rawalakot got 12 mm.
• Balakot got 7 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 23 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 3.8 mm.
• Mithi got 32 mm.
• Chhor got 3 mm.
• Balochistan
• Lasbella got 12 mm.
• Khuzdar got 12 mm also.

Date of issue – August 10

“Mithi, Sindh got 309 mm rainfall in 48 hours!”

*Second monsoon spell has hit Sindh on August 10 as forecasted by PWP on July 29. While the third monsoon spell is “poor“, as per latest developments.

*Low pressure is over south Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat, it may further deepen and head towards Sindh. An UAC is over Jharkhand.

*More thunderstorms likely in Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir till few days with isolated moderate falls. Severe but isolated heavy rainfall has occurred in south-eastern Sindh since yesterday night mainly in Mithi, more thunder/heavy showers likely in Mirpur Khas, Badin, Umerkot. While heavy rainfall likely in Karachi and Hyderabad. The rains will start from tonight and continue till 3 days with few gaps. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Multan got TR
• Khyber
• Kakul got 5 mm.
• Sindh
• Nagarparker 140 mm.
• Chachro 132 mm.
• Mithi got 85 mm.
• Hyderabad got 5 mm.
• Thatta got 3 mm.
• Karachi got TR
• Larkana got TR
• Badin got TR
• Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – August 9

“Extremely heavy rainfall brought Islamabad to standstill”

“9 people killed in Punjab: PWP Media”

*PWP maintains its second monsoon forecast to “extremely high” in Sindh, PWP on July 29 forecasted monsoonal activity in Sindh in August. PWP downgrades the third monsoon spell for Sindh from “moderate” to “poor”, the lowering of third forecast is based on latest developments.

*Yesterday’s low pressure area is now over Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan, it has absorbed the upper air cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab. The weather system will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next 48 hours, after that it might further intensify into a depression. UAC that formed in the Bay of Bengal has crossed West Bengal and it is now over Jharkhand.

Strong western trough moving into India after interacting with monsoon moisture and producing cloudbursts with record-breaking rainfall in Islamabad and Lahore. The rainfall was the highest in Islamabad in three hours. While rainfall in Lahore brought the city to standstill. More monsoon showers at times heavy in Islamabad, North-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot and other adjoining cities), Khyber and Kashmir, as 5th spell continues. In South Punjab (Multan and other adjoining cities) showers at times heavy likely too. In south-eastern Sindh, moderate showers could occur in August 10 and August 11 and then increase. Drizzle/light rainfall expected in Karachi.

*Extremely heavy rainfalls have taken the lives of 9 people in Punjab, raising the death toll from 67 to 76 since June 25.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 176 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 95 mm.
• Okara got 83 mm.
• Sahiwal got 46 mm.
• Khyber
• D.I Khan got 4 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 19 mm.
• Sindh
• Larkana got 22 mm.
• Moen jo Daro got TR.
• Balochistan
• Khuzdar got 14 mm.

Date of issue – August 8

Low pressure over Madya Pradesh and adjoining Utter Pradesh

Very heavy rainfalls in Punjab due strong western trough-eastern monsoon moisture

Heavy rainfalls approaching Sindh due to low pressure

4 people killed in Punjab: PWP Media

*PWP maintains its second monsoon forecast to “extremely high” in Sindh, PWP on July 29 forecasted monsoonal activity in Sindh in August. PWP downgrades the third monsoon spell for Sindh from “high” to “moderate”, the lowering of third forecast is based on latest developments.

*Yesterday’s UAC intensify into a low pressure area over north-west Madya Pradesh and adjoining parts of Utter Pradesh, it will further intensify and will maintain its intensity before coming to Sindh, its track has slightly changed now. Another UAC is over Punjab and West Bengal.

*Strong western trough enters Pakistan and has caused very heavy rainfalls in upper parts of Pakistan due to the interaction between monsoon moisture. More heavy monsoon showers in Islamabad, Punjab, Kashmir and Khyber as 5th monsoon spell gains intensity due to the presence of strong western trough. These rains have killed at least 4 people in Punjab due to collapse of houses raising the death toll from 63 to 67 since June 25. Heavy rainfalls with strong gusty winds likely in Sindh during this week.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got traces
• Punjab
• Lahore got 47 mm.
• Sialkot got 56 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 13 mm.
• Khyber
• Kakul got 68 mm.
• Peshawar got 26 mm.
• Risalpur got 46 mm.
• Dir got 55 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 18 mm
• Sindh remained dry

Date of issue – August 7

“5th monsoon spell continues”

“Strong weather system in formation”

*Upper air cyclonic circulations persists over south-east Utter Pradesh, it will intensify into a low pressure on August 7 late/August 8 (This weather system will affect south Pakistan). Another UAC is over Punjab, while another is off-the coast of West Bengal.

*Western trough that intensified, is moving towards Pakistan, under the influence of interaction between westerlies and easterlies, more moderate showers at times heavy with thunder/lightening in Islamabad, Punjab including Lahore, Khyber and Kashmir as 5th monsoon spell continues. In South Punjab too, thunder/showers likely including Multan. Drizzle may occur in coastal Sindh including Karachi in 48 hours. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 56 mm.
• Punjab
• Sahiwal got 7 mm.
• Sialkot got 12 mm.
• Sargodha got 13 mm.
• Kashmir
• Garhi got 28 mm.
• Kotli got 22 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 4 mm.
• Khyber
• Kakul got 17 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got traces
• Balochistan remained dry

Date of issue – August 6

“Proper monsoon to start in Pakistan this coming week”

“Two Weather system to affect Pakistan”

*PWP’s forecast and prediction about widespread rainfall issued on August 3, has been supported by the PMD who issued it on August 6. PWP issued a widespread rainfall update for whole Pakistan during the coming week. PWP upgraded its second monsoon forecast from “high” to “very high” in Sindh, PWP on July 29 forecasted monsoonal activity in Sindh in August. PWP upgraded the third monsoon spell for Sindh from “poor” to “moderate”, PWP forecasted on August 3 about the third monsoon spell in Karachi.

* Upper air cyclonic circulations persist over south-east Utter Pradesh, could intensify into a low pressure in few days. Another UAC is over Gujarat.

*Monsoon moisture still penetrating into upper parts of Pakistan therefore more monsoon showers likely in Islamabad, Punjab (Lahore, Sialkot, Faisalabad and other adjoining cities), Khyber and Kashmir. Light monsoon showers in South Punjab while drizzle in coastal Sindh including Karachi. Overall the fifth monsoon spell will continue in upper parts for many days, while the 4th monsoon spell and 2nd monsoon spell will start in few days in Sindh including Karachi. Hot and dry weather likely else where. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got traces
• Punjab
• Lahore got 1 mm.
• Mianwali got 5 mm.
• Okara got 19 mm.
• Noorpur got 6 mm.
• Khyber
• Bannu got 35 mm.
• D.I Khan got 23 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 11 mm.

Date of issue – August 5

*The UAC over Chhattisgarh moved to south-eastern Utter Pradesh, currently moving westwards. Another is over Gujarat.

*Western trough approaches Northern Pakistan and hence an interaction between the monsoon moisture is very likely. Fifth monsoon showers likely to continue in Islamabad, Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir till few days with isolated heavy falls. While light showers in South Punjab. Weather will remain cloudy/windy in coastal Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 8 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 28 mm.
• Murree got 24 mm.
• Faisalabad got 13 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 1 mm.
• Khyber
• Risalpur got 2 mm.
• Peshawar got 5 mm.
• Balochistan and Sindh remained dry

Date of issue – August 4

“No monsoon weather system over any part of Pakistan” 

“5th spell continues..”

*The UAC over Bay of Bengal crossed Orissa coast and is now present over Chhattisgarh, currently it is moving westwards. Another UAC is over Gujarat.

*A fresh western trough is over Afghanistan and is moving eastwards, level of monsoon moisture has increased in North-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Murree, Mianwali and other adjoining cities), Khyber and Kashmir under that influence moderate showers likely in these areas including Islamabad with fast to strong winds. Light showers could also occur in South Punjab during next 48 hours. The monsoon intensity will weaken in these areas by August 5 mid-day but will re-intensify on August 8 and by that time the 5th monsoon spell will start in South Punjab too. Monsoon showers are also expected in Sindh during end of second week including Karachi. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 38 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 17 mm.
• Sialkot
• Khyber
• Kohat got 41 mm.
• Balakot got 2 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 1 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 1 mm.

Date of issue – August 3

“Widespread monsoonal activity likely in coming week in Pakistan”

“PWP upgrades monsoon forecast”

5th monsoon spell starts

*The UAC over north Bay of Bengal has moved to north-west, may intensify into a low pressure area in few days, if conditions become favourable. The UAC persists over Gujarat.

*Hot and humid weather likely in 12 to 24 hours mainly upper parts of the country. Either from August 3 evening or August 4 morning, the 5th monsoon spell will start in North-eastern Punjab, Kashmir and parts of Khyber, the intensity of monsoon moisture will rise from August 3 night. Isolated moderate showers with few isolated heavy falls likely in Islamabad, North-eastern Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot and other adjoining cities), Khyber and Kashmir during the next few days overall the intensity will decrease on August 5 mid-day but the intensity will rise from August 8. Due to increase in level of moisture some drizzle likely in coastal Sindh during the next 24 to 48 hours.

*From August 8, the 5th monsoon spell will start in South Punjab and will continue in the above mentioned areas with scattered heavy rainfall. During the end of second week of August fresh monsoon activity likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Mirpur Khas, Badin, Keti and other adjoining cities, rainfall could be heavy at times with fast winds. Thus due to international parameters and meteorological analysis, PWP had upgraded its monsoon forecast for Sindh from “poor” to “moderate”, PWP did indeed told its readers on July 29 (Daily updates) about some monsoon activity in Karachi in coming weeks.  Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 7 mm.
• Punjab
• Sialkot got 6 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 1 mm.
• Khyber, Sindh and Balochistan remained dry

Date of issue – August 2

“Its poor at the moment”

*The UAC is over northwards in the Bay of Bengal, may intensify into a low pressure area in few days, if conditions become favourable. The UAC persists over Gujarat.

*Hot,humid and dry weather likely across the country except north-eastern Punjab and Kashmir where light drizzle to weak showers likely. 5th monsoon spell will start in 2 to 3 days in Upper Pakistan, the 5th/fourth/second monsoon spell may start in South Pakistan during second week of August. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecast “poor” chances of 2nd monsoon spell in coastal Sindh and south-eastern Sindh as of August 2, it will be upgraded or downgraded as day gets closer. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Lahore got 7 mm, all other parts of Pakistan remained dry.

Date of issue – August 1

“Clear skies to welcome Ramazan”

*The UAC that formed over the Bay of Bengal few days ago, is still present over North-West Bay of Bengal, may intensify into a low pressure area. Another UAC is over Gujarat, this Gujarat UAC will not affect Sindh.

*Hot and dry weather almost all parts of the country, except few parts of Kashmir where light showers likely. Due to hot and dry weather and clear/partly cloudy there are extremely good chances of sighting the Ramadan’s moon all over the country. In Karachi too the weather will remain clear/few clouds till the period of sighting the moon and few clouds will return after the time passes by. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Faisalabad got 6 mm.
• Kashmir
• Pattan got 9 mm.
• Khyber
• Malam Jabba got 22 mm.
• Balochistan 
• Khuzdar got 18 mm

Background

Much of Pakistan has received rainfall with the upper parts being battered by scattered heavy falls that has led to flash flooding in the Kohistan region of Khyber province, overall monsoon has been active in Pakistan since August 25. Temperatures were normal due to frequent cloud-cover while in some areas it rised. The level of humidty was high across the monsoon belt of Pakistan.

Factors

Pakistan's precipitation and temperature

*Monsoon supply from Arabian sea likely to stay, however intensity will decrease and increase from time to time.

*Fresh western trough entered Pakistan on August 25 and is over India’s Kashmir  and adjoining Gilgit region.

*Temperatures are expected to remain in comfort zone while humidity will remain high due to frequent showers in some areas.

Weather incidents: Flash flooding in Kohistan!

Kohat city has received a total of 240 mm rainfall, that is the highest in 24 hours in the province during the current monsoon season. Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in the local rivers that have now killed at least 63 people. The death toll is now 192 since June 25, all these deaths were a result of heat waves, windstorms, flash flooding and heavy rainfall. As compared to other monsoon season, this year the death toll is less compared to 2007, 2009 and 2010. People are requested to take precautions during any type of extreme weather.

• Fresh spells in Sindh

• What is next for Karachi?

• Eid’s moon will be visible!

Monsoon News of Pakistan

Monsoon rainfall have been below-normal is many areas excluding the upper parts of Pakistan where interaction between westerlies and easterlies led to enhance precipitation. Six monsoon spell have occurred in Upper Pakistan excluding the pre-monsoon spell. While four monsoon spells have occurred in Southern Pakistan with no pre-monsoon spell. Overall the monsoon was inactive in the month of July in southern parts of the country while it is expected to remain active till the end of August in Sindh. Following is the monsoon status in the country;

*Fresh that is the 5th monsoon spell is likely to start in Sindh during the start of coming week.

*Monsoon activity, 6th monsoon spell will continue in Khyber, North-east Punjab and Khyber with few gaps, new spell may also start in these areas.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

• Forecast for Sindh will be revised on August 31 if any new developments happens 

Pakistan Conditions: Outlook for August 30

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th monsoon spell in Sindh. PWP on August 26 predicts the fifth monsoon spell in south-eastern and coastal Sindh keeping certain meteorological parameters in mind. As of August 26, PWP forecasts;

” ‘High’ chances of monsoon hitting Sindh from start of the coming week.”

As of 7:00 pm PST August 26, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would move westwards, meaning inland by August 26 late night or August 27 morning and may gain strength to become a low pressure in 1 to 2 days, before moving to southern-western states of India, bringing widespread rainfall to these states of India. It might than lose intensity over Gujarat-Maharashtra. It will enter by maintaining its intensity in south-eastern Sindh on August 30 or August 31 according to GFS. The exact date however varies from model to model.

*Monsoon winds from upper parts of Pakistan will again shift to southern parts after 1 to 2 days, increasing moist winds in Sindh.

Following is the weather forecast that is expected;

Islamabad

The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

• 31°C to 34 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

• 32 °C to 35 °C in Lahore.
• 33°C to 48 °C in Faisalabad.
• 28°C to 33°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected after 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompained by thunder.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

• 34 °C to 36 °C in Multan.
• 34 °C to 38 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The fresh monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 and continue till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls mostly after August 29.

Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.

• 32 °C to 37 °C in Sukkur.
• 34 °C to 38 °C also in Larkana.
• 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly heavy in intensity with chances of isolated very heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat especially Mirpur Khas district. There are chances of flooding in Mirpur Khas and Badin districts. 

Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.

• 32 °C to 33 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 night/August 30 and continue 2 to 3 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in Karachi while chances of scattered heavy rainfall in Keti Bandar and Thatta.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

• 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.

The moon of Eid-ul-Fitr

Notice: “Due to Eid-ul-Fitr, Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will be partially closed from August 28 (Sunday) till September 4 (Sunday). Due to Eid holidays, PWP-FB and PWP-Twitter will also remain partially closed and normal activities will be resumed from September 4.”

The moon of Eid might be only visible in the province of Balochistan as the monsoon belt of Pakistan may have a partly cloudy/mostly cloudy weather with showers. Sindh might be under the influence of the 5th monsoon spell. The coastal parts of Balochistan especially Gwadar will have a clear sky thus the chances of viewing the moon is higher in the western parts of Pakistan.

Timing of PWP from August 28 till September 4 due to Eid

• 1:00 pm to 1:30 pm

• 7:30 pm to 8:30 pm

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

Memories of 2010 back in the region

16 people have died – number expected to rise!

Khyber now joins Sindh and Punjab

In what appears to be a similar repeat of last year’s flood, fresh flash flooding has occurred in North-west Pakistan affecting the region of Khyer-Pakhtunkhwa. Kohistan has been badly affected as 16 people have lost their lives. The death toll is expected to touch 35 in coming days as overnight heavy rainfall linked to the ongoing monsoon season have generated a flood that has destroyed dozen of houses in the region.

Similar scenes were seen as the government requested the Pakistan Army to send helicopters for relief efforts, hundreds of people are still stranded in the region where rescue teams are doing their utmost to help the people. There is a fear that more monsoon rains might hamper the rescue efforts and could unleash more floodings. Kohistan was one of the worst affected regions in Pakistan by devastating floods in 2010, which had killed a large number of people and displaced millions across the country.

Just few days back, it was the Sindh province in southern Pakistan that was badly affected due to record-breaking rainfall in the south-eastern parts, the flash flooding killed more than 30 people in the province. After the flooding, diseases are started spreading due to lack of attention by the government. Also in some parts of the Punjab province, the rise in the level of Sutlej river has caused many villages to sub-merge. Condition is likely to worsen as more areas of Pakistan are being flooded

Tremors were felt in Washington DC and New york

Washington monument affected!

No causality reported

A 5.9-magnitude earthquake centred in Virginia has shaken much of Washington DC and was felt as far north as New York City and Martha’s Vineyard. Parts of the Pentagon, White House and Capitol were evacuated. There were no immediate reports of injuries. This was one of the largest earthquakes on the east coast in quite a while, in many decades at least. Two nuclear reactors at the North Anna power station were taken off-line. Around the tiny town of Mineral, Virginia, masonry crumbled. In Washington DC, thousands poured into the streets as offices, including in the Pentagon and the Capitol, were evacuated. . Manhattan’s forest of skyscrapers could be felt gently shifting from side to side. All the schools in the capital were closed down due to safety reason while some people thought that it is a terrorist attack, as the anniversary of september attacks are just 10 weeks away.

There were no immediate reports of deaths, but fire officials in Washington said there were some injuries.

The east coast gets earthquakes, but they are usually smaller and the area is less prepared than California or Alaska. The west coast of America is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, with the areas around Alaska and the San Andreas fault in California, prone to earthquakes on a regular basis.

Weather forecasting is “Ghaib”- Unknown?

Some Muslims believe that weather forecasting is haram (forbidden) in Islam because it is the prediction of the unknown. Forecasting the weather does not come under the heading of astrology or claiming to have knowledge of the unseen, rather it is based on physical evidence and experience, and study of the natural laws established by God.

In Pakistan, few Islamic scholars have also declared weather forecasting as predicting the unknown and unseen, what ever the reason is, it is up to you what the people think is right. The recent example of declaring weather forecasting as “unholy” can be seen in Afghanistan.

Afghan Taliban declares weather forecasting as “Magic”

During the Soviet occupied Afghanistan, the Afghanistan Meteorological Authority (AMA) had one of the most advanced weather stations available at the time. But all was changed when the Taliban took over the country, after nearly destroying everything in the country, the Afghan Taliban eyed AMA. In 1996, Taliban destroyed its office as they though that predicting weather is magic and unholy in Islam. 100 years worth of weather records of Afghanistan were destroyed. Following events took place after the Taliban attack;

• Few months after that, crops were badly affected due to lack of information of drought.
• In 1998, an Afghan Airlines flight flew into unexpected weather, causing it to crash into a mountain, killing 45 people.

Is predicting weather really unholy or  fortune-telling?

Clouds surrounding the Mosque

No, Forecasting and predicting the weather that is predicting strong winds and storms or saying where clouds are expected to form or where rain is likely to fall is based on knowledge of the natural laws of God. One who has experience of these laws may say what he expects to happen on the basis of scientific theories or common experience, so he expects that and predicts it on the basis of likelihood, not certain knowledge, and he gets it right sometimes and gets it wrong sometimes. On the other hand, it is based on scientific data which is describing climatic conditions, because climatic conditions have to do with precise measurements that are known to them. Thus they may predict that certain conditions are likely to produce rain or not. That is like the primitive predication that we make when we see clouds forming, and thunder and lightning and thick clouds, and we usually say: “It is going to rain soon.”

In fact, meteorology does not tell us the Unknown. It only allows prediction with the help of apprehension and science that God condescends to us. In addition, this is done by looking at the meteorological maps, not by looking into the sky.

Although there is no doubt that it is God who knows weather better than his creature as weather is in his hands. Mankind has made improvements in weather science, but still 100% right predictions are still hard to make. Especially, as much as time delays, it is much harder to get precise predictions in forecast.. In the holy book of Islam, Quran it is written that;

1.  ”…Have you not seen how God makes the clouds move gently, then joins them together, then makes them into a stack, and then you see the rain come out of it….”

Some people suggest that spending money on the latest weather equipments is useless as weather is not in our hands but it is due to our efforts that millions people are saved in the world. Hurricanes, number one natural disaster in America, improvement in meteorological equipments have caused the death toll to decrease from thousand to just hundred, the number is expected to further reduce as mankind further advance into the field of meteorology. So is this all knowing the unknown?

Judgement day: Three Earthquakes await the Planet!

When we talk about Judgement day, we usually think of heaven and hell. But the question arises is that how judgement day will  occur? It is said that it will happen in the form of natural disasters raging from west to east. Most common believe is that earthquakes will rock the planet and mega tsunamis will wash away the planet. Though as compared to other religions in the world, Islam is the only one which gives a sort of more information on the events that are likely to happen before, during and after the Judgement day.

One thing that must be highlighted is that Islam shows that there will be abnormal weather and severe natural disasters that will show the signs of Judgement day. Weather is likely to play an important role on the “Last Day”. Although there are many other events too that will happen but weather will be also playing its role side by side. Most of us think that global warming will be the force that will eventually cause these wicked and unusual phenomena to happen. What ever the reason be, we might never know how it all will start.

Minor signs

There are around hundred minor signs given in Islam about Judgement day but few signs are of weather, which are as follows;

• Earthquakes will increase

Major signs

There are few major signs in Islam regarding Judgement day but almost all has links to meteorology and geology unlike the minor signs. Following are the major signs;

• Three severe Earthquakes 

One earthquake will occur in the East while the other in West. The third one will occur in the Arabian Peninsula, all of them will swallow the earth’s surface. Though no major scientific reason is available for these earthquakes as of yet but the Holy Prophet (PBUH) has said regarding the Arabian earthquake that;

“All of those people would sink but they would be resurrected and judged according to their intentions.”

The Eastern earthquake has been said to sink all the regions in that part of the world, some religious scholars have defined the term “sink” as tsunami, if that is the case then the March 2011 and 2004 tsunami must be kept in mind. The Western earthquake will also have a huge impact on the world, the most active fault line in the west is the California fault line. These earthquakes will send wave of destruction from all the corners of earth and eventually in the end a new world will born.

•  Smog will hover the world

“And Smog will surround the cities..”

The number of smog covering the cities has increased during the last few years mainly due to the increase in population and air pollution. Smog is a word derived from smoke and fog. The smog is highly dangerous form of air pollution that can cause breathing problems as well as eye infections. In Islam it is said that;

“Smog will occur due to the sins of the people as what evil have they done in their lives.”

There have been a great number of cases of smog in United States, United Kingdom, Iran, South-east Asia and many other countries.

These are the main weather-related and geological events that are considered minor signs of Judgement day, all other are related to the deeds and behavoir of people.

Judgement day begins!

Heaven or Hell: The real resting places of man

Copyright © 2011 Pakistan Weather Portal - All Rights Reserved

• Monsoon activity in Sindh!

• Weekend and Monsoon!

• UAC moving westwards!

Temperature and precipitation

Sindh province has experienced its second floods in a row though they were of different nature but the people faced same problems. Record-breaking monsoon showers created a flood-like situation in south-eastern Sindh that affected some 2 Lakh people. In the north few isolated flooding events have been reported as 5th monsoon spell is coming to an end in those areas. Temperatures are likely to remain high in some areas till 48 hours especially in Sindh while humidity will remain high in the monsoon belt of the country. What lies ahead for Pakistan? Well its week-long monsoon rains for some parts.

Monsoon is now on peak intensity and is likely to start to withdraw from last week of August or first week of September in Pakistan. Overall monsoon has been below normal in many southern parts of Pakistan.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 65% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.”

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the onset of Monsoon over coastal and south-eastern Sindh on July 28 till July 30 that PWP forecasted on July 15. PWP was right on track to predict that second monsoon spell over those same areas on August 10 till August 15, PWP forecasted the second monsoon rainfall on July 29. Now all eyes on the third monsoon spell.

Pakistan Weather: August 21 - August 22 mid-day

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on August 4 predicted the third monsoon rainfall. As of August 19, earlier PWP forecasted and said;

” ‘Moderate’ chances of monsoon hitting Karachi during the weekend of August.”

PWP maintains its third monsoon forecast to “moderate” and we hope that monsoon showers would start from August 21 till August 23 morning in Sindh.

The 5th monsoon spell is likely to come to end in upper Pakistan in 24 to 48 hours after that chances of light showers will continue till 2 to 3 days, during that period some temperatures could rise while humidity will rise. After those days the 6th monsoon spell will start in those areas. As for Sindh, third monsoon spell would start from August 21 and continue till 1 to 2 days. Overall it will be a short spell and after that a gap is likely.

As of 7:00 pm PST August 19, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that the upper air cyclonic circulations over Chhattisgarh will move to central Madya Pradesh from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it may lose its intensity and it may tore into different thunderstorm. The UAC will approach south-eastern Sindh by August 21 mid-day/evening. Eventually it will dissipate after 48 hours over south-eastern Sindh.

Islamabad

The 5th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital for 48 hours. Showers will be mostly steady with some lightening expected on August 19 night. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

• 33°C to 35 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon will continue till August 20 mid-day and after that chances of light showers. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.

In Northern Punjab, due to enhance monsoon activity, the temperatures found it difficult to rise and this condition is likely to continue. Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

• 33 °C to 36 °C in Lahore.
• 38°C to 40 °C in Faisalabad.
• 28°C to 33°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon is over however chances of light showers persist till 24 hours. Some more showers could occur on August 21 and August 22.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

• 37 °C to 40 °C in Multan.
• 39 °C to 41 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The 5th spell will begin from August 21 and continue till 48 hours. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity.

Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.

• 36 °C to 38 °C in Sukkur.
• 37 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
• 36 °C to 39 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 20 late night and continue till 1 to 2 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat.

Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.

• 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 21 night and continue 1 to 2 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of heavy falls in Keti Bandar and Thatta.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

• 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.

What lies ahead?-A long-range forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

• Widespread episode again?

“Notice: This is a long-range forecast of PWP, it will definitely change in coming days. But PWP wants to share this long-range forecast with its readers.”

More monsoon showers likely after 3 to 5 days in almost all the monsoon regions of the country with heavy rainfall expected at many places of Pakistan. It will be the 6th monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan while 4th monsoon spell in Lower Pakistan.

Death toll rises significantly since last week!!

• Death toll rises to 118 since August 17

Due to recent wave of heavy rainfall across Pakistan and flooding in Sindh the death toll has raised to 118 till August 17. PWP Media will keep you update on every weather incident in Pakistan.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to ask its readers that;

More stories are now unfolding about the recent flooding in Sindh. Fresh reports suggest that at least loss of Rs. 130 billion has happened in Sindh, Rains destroyed standing crops of cotton, paddy, sugarcane, onion, tomato, chillies, fodder and other seasonal vegetables to the tune of billions of rupees. Tando Muhammad Khan and Badin districts are the worst sufferers where rainwater submerged different kinds of standing crops on 1.5 million acres of land.

• Developing story in Sindh Province!

Floodwater submerged standing crop of paddy on around 0.9 million acres, sugarcane on 0.25 million acres, fodder on 0.25 million acres and onion, tomato on 0.25 million acres of land. Cotton crop suffered some 70 per cent damage. In terms of money, these two districts suffered roughly losses to the tune of Rs44.60 billion. The floodwater also damaged fish farms and poultry farms in coastal parts of Badin district. Reports said that around 1,000 fish farms and 800 poultry farms in Badin district were affected. Similarly, the floodwater destroyed standing crop on 2.5 million acres of land in four districts, Tando Allahyar, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot and Tharparkar. Cotton, sugarcane, vegetable, chillies and some others are the major crops. Kunri, district Tharparkar, is the biggest chilly market of the world. Tando Allahyar and southern parts of Hala are considered as hub of onion, which also suffered the worst blow. Overall 55 per cent standing crops suffered damages. Also some 0.3 million acres of land in affected in Sanghar district.

The Pakistan Institute of Labour Education and Research (PILER) demanded of the government to take immediate measures to restore normal life in the flood-hit areas. Pakistan Peace Coalition (PPC) is also demanding the government to provide shelters to the displaced people immediately.

Last time these areas were affected was in 1999, when powerful cyclone smashed the country’s coastline. The other was in 2003 and 2006, when heavy rainfall created similar flood-like situation in the province. Now there are chances of more monsoon showers in coming days in Sindh which could worsen the situation in the province however there is no immediate threat of widespread heavy rainfall in Sindh as of now.

Floods revisit Sindh – Two years in a row! - Part I

It has happened again as feared by the international communities early this year. Record breaking monsoon rainfall this time in Sindh have wrecked havoc somewhat similar to last year’s great floods. At least 30 people have been reported of losing their lives while some unconfirmed says that 50 people have died in eastern Sindh due to flooding. Record rainfall was between 250 mm to 350 mm, which caused much the problem. 15,000 tents have been distributed by the Pakistan Army in the flood-hit area, while 100 villages have been affected. 

All the cities, towns and villages give a look of either an ocean or a never ending lake. The devastation is widespread. All of Badin, Tando Muhamamd Khan, Tando Allah Yar, Mirpur Khas, Thatta and a few other districts have been affected. Waters have reached somewhere waist level and somewhere neck and shoulder levels. Hundreds of thousands of people are still stranded. National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) have told that over 2 lakh people in eastern Sindh have been affected while the Chief Minister of Sindh have said that 1 lakh are affected.

Army helping the affected people

Overall the situation is horrible in Sindh and there is fear that diseases like malaria, dengue and other diseases will spread in the province. In the Punjab, province at least 110 causes of dengue have been reported, which is being blamed on frequent monsoon showers in the province. Still some people displaced by last year’s are living in the camps, these fresh flooding is likely to cause much problems in the province and it is feared that it may have a direct impact on the already fragile economy of Pakistan. International organizations like UN, Oxfam etc already warned the government that conditions since last year have not be improved thus it wont be surprising if flood-like situation is seen this monsoon season too. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) in March had said that chances of floods were likely in the monsoon season in the upper parts due to heavy snowfall in winter and severe heat waves that followed it, while due to lack of construction in Sindh since last year, chances of flash flooding were likely in Sindh too. Prime Minister and Chief Minister of Sindh, however did visit the flood-hit districts of Sindh but people affected say that they want food and water as both these commodities have been hit hard by the floods. Already the monthly rising food prices in the country have caused a great deal  of problem in flood-hit areas as people are unable to buy food for their loved famalies. Great number of cattle is reported to be affected while those animals which survived are suffering various diseases due to stagnant polluted water.

A survey conducted by the National Rural Support Programme (NRSP) revealed that the districts Badin and Mirpurkhas have been worst affected. The NRSP in its damage assessment recommended that at least 17, 404 households needed food supplies, 11, 681 households needed shelters, 65, 552 required wash intervention, 17, 074 needed health interventions and 20, 922 affected required other necessities on emergency basis. UN humanitarian agencies in Pakistan are on standby after heavy rainfall in Sindh provinces.The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) conducted informal assessments last week in some areas where there had been a significant loss of homes, and district authorities were already relocating families to shelters.

La-Nina brings flooding to India during monsoon

Jama Mosque as monsoon clouds burst over New Delhi

During the middle of this year, many reports from the United States and Japan started circulating the world web that suggested that Indian monsoon-friendly La-Nina may return during the end of this year. There is no doubt that the scientists at the Regional Institute for global Change (RIGC) based in Tokyo had predicted the La-Nina conditions but the US National Weather Service were the first to suggest that La-Nina could return this year as well. Last year, La-Nina brought death and destruction to almost every part of the world from hurricanes to drought, the whole world was left shocked by the destruction in every part of the globe. La-Nina increased the hurricane activity in North Atlantic Ocean while the opposite in Pacific Ocean, severe flooding in Pakistan and North-west India and the list goes on and on.

La-Nina is an Indian monsoon-friendly, though without direct cause-effect relationship unlike its brother El-Nino which brought severe drought in India and Pakistan since the great drought of early 21st century and again in 2009. For the people of Indian Sub-continent La-Nina is regarded as a phenomena that brings rainfall while El-Nino only brings high pressures. In the other part of the world it is the complete opposite as climatic conditions vary from place to place just like human thinking.

El-Nino/La-Nina – South Oscillation

El-Nino and La-Nina in the month of June till September

Both these phenomena are famous for having irregularity, it is thought that they happen every 5 year respectively but this study is not supported by other scientist. Overall there are two types of this phenomena;

• El-Nino is a spanish word which means boy, it may also refer to a Christ child, because of the periodic warming in the Pacific near South America that happens around Christmas. It causes extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. It causes drought in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many countries of the world, while it causes wet conditions and floods in other part of the world. It has a deep effect on the Indian monsoon. It forms due to the warming of Pacific Ocean thus the number of typhoons are increased in Pacific ocean while Atlantic ocean usually becomes calm due to intense wind shear. El-Nino is also said to increase malaria disease in India.

• La-Nina is a spanish word which means girl. La-Nina is the complete opposite of El-Nino. It causes wet conditions and floods in the Sub-continent while drought and dry weather over other parts of the world. It happens due to the cooling of Pacific ocean.

La-Nina returning this year again?

It is only the Americans and Japanese that point finger towards La-Nina. Americans are less confident but the Japanese were much more confident.

Japanese Outlook for La-Nina

El-Nino - La-Nina: Difference between the two phenomenas

Japanese scientists have already said that La Nina conditions may already be happening. Scientists at the Regional Institute for global Change (RIGC) based in Tokyo have been saying this for quite some time. Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist at RIGC, said that

“The La Nina condition is currently on the way back. This condition is forecast to persist until early next year.”

La Nina would bring cool to wet conditions over southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil during the southern hemisphere summer.

Americans Outlook for La-Nina

Few days back the US National Weather Services too had officially changed its outlook for the Pacific into a “La Nina watch”.

The National Weather Service has forecasted that there is 50% chance of La-Nina returning while 50% chance of no La-Nina at all.

Nielsen Gammon working at the National Weather Service had this to say;

“It’s also important to remember the large computer models used by the weather service are predicting a weak to moderate. Not nearly as strong as the forecasts were saying at this time last year.”

All the super computers used the U.S do not show any sign of cooling of the Pacific. Last year’s strong La-Nina caused severe drought in the state of Texas in the United States, for the Americans it’s a bad news.

La-Nina coming with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)?

Indian Ocean Dipole matters for the monsoon

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) did mention that there has been some news about the returning of La-Nina with +IOD as of now that news stays in contact but only the Japanese scientist agree on that. Like ENSO, there are two types of Indian Ocean Dipoloe. IOD is an irregular phenomenon in which the western equatorial of the Indian Ocean becomes warmer while the eastern equatorial cooler.It affects the Sub continent, Australia, Indonesia and many other surrounding countries. There are two phases of Indian Ocean Dipole; 1. Positive IOD 2. Negative IOD

• Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) causes sea temperatures to rise in the western Indian Ocean with heavy precipitation in Sub-continent while it makes the sea temperatures cooler in the eastern Indian Ocean with drought or very little to no precipitation in Australia and Indonesia.
• Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) causes cooler sea temperatures in western Indian Ocean with no rainfall in the Sub-continent while eastern Indian Ocean becomes warmer with heavy precipitation.

But if positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) happens it is likely to be a weak one. It is forecasted by those same Japanese that it may form in next few months.

Whats for monsoon then?

There has been no strong weather system this year that could have the potential to bring widespread heavy rainfall to any part of the Sub-continent except for the deep depression BOB 02 during June in India and a strong low pressure during mid-August in Pakistan. Overall if we see the timings of the “expected” formation of La-Nina and weak +IOD, it shows that monsoon might be unaffected because the peak intensity of monsoon is from late July till early late August and after that monsoon withdraws during the second week of September. The Japanese and Americans have said that La-Nina (weak to moderate) may return after August (during Autumn), so it seems that the La-Nina will miss out the south-west monsoon if it forms. But the north-east monsoon might be affected by La-Nina which does not happen in Pakistan, but if  La-Nina happens.

Monsoon Special articles for 2011

You can read special monsoon article of current year (2011) by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Sub-continent awaits Monsoon season!-Part 1
• Monsoon threatened by Indian Ocean Dipole!-Part 2
• Monsoon 2011 and Cyclones – Sub-continent’s coastal threat?-Part 3
• Monsoon and its Dangers – How many people will die this year?- Part4
• When will Monsoon start over Pakistan? – In Detail!-Part 5
• Monsoon 2011: Backlash of the floods? – History of Pakistan floods in Detail-Part 6
• Monsoon rain of July 28, 2010 – Dark day, but more was ahead!-Part 7
• Much awaited monsoon showers lashes Karachi!-Part 8
• Little girl may return for Monsoon: La-Nina episode!-Part 9
• Heavy downpour in Karachi!-Part 10
  

• Flash/Urban flooding

• Two strong eastern systems

• One strong western trough

After experiencing a dull start to the monsoon of 2011, Pakistan is all set to get proper monsoon rainfalls that it used to get every year. Some parts of Pakistan had received above average rainfall while many parts faced below average rainfall. Early this year the United Nations (U.N) had published a report that suggested that probability of floods this year are high due to lack of construction in last year’s flood-hit regions, later a report from Oxfam international also reported the same things. But this year the monsoon rainfall were not active like last year mainly due to the lack of weather systems from the Bay of Bengal. Upper Pakistan has got showers due to the interaction between western troughs and monsoon moisture where as last year it was the interaction between strong western disturbance and a strong low pressure from the Bay of Bengal that created havoc in the country and later devastating floods sank 20% land of Pakistan. Now these same conditions are erupting as a strong low pressure is in making and a strong trough of western disturbance is over Afghanistan. Will history repeat itself? 

PWP upgraded its second monsoon forecast from ” very high” to “extremely high” in Sindh, PWP on July 29 forecasted monsoonal activity in Sindh in August. PWP upgrades third monsoon spell for Sindh from “moderate” to “high”, PWP forecasted the third spell on August 4.  Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is 75% confident with this forecast after observing different meteorological factors. But we may revise our third monsoon rainfall for Sindh.

Updates regarding Severe weather

PWP's map showing the track of two expected weather system

All the new updates will be issued below;

Update issued on August 10 at 7:00 pm PST – LAST UPDATE

Yesterday’s low pressure area is over South Rajasthan and adjoining North-western Gujarat, it will enter Sindh on August 10 late or August 11 morning, the low pressure may intensify further into a well-marked low pressure area in 48 hours.

Under the influence of this strong weather system, widespread heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall likely across Sindh especially south-eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Badin and adjoining cities), while heavy rainfall likely in coastal Sindh  too (Karachi, Thatta and Keti Bandar), overall the winds will be strong (56 to 60 km/h).

Update issued on August 10 at 2: 30 pm PST 

Heavy downpour expected in 48 hours across Sindh

Yesterday’s low pressure area is over south Rajasthan now, it is likely to move into Sindh on August 10 late or August 11 mid-day/ (change has again occurred in its arrival date), the low pressure may intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next 48 hours.It will move to and fro over Sindh again as forecasted eariler.

Under the influence of this strong weather system, widespread heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall likely across Sindh especially south-eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Badin and adjoining cities), while heavy rainfall likely in coastal Sindh  too (Karachi, Thatta and Keti Bandar), overall the winds will be strong (60 km/h), due to severe rainfall in Sindh, chances of flooding is likely. Rains as of latest forecast will start from today (have started in most parts)and last till August 14. While chances of rainfall in Karachi from evening (August 10).

Update issued on August 9 at 7:00 pm PST

“Chances of flooding in Sindh during the weekend”

Yesterday’s low pressure area is now over Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan, it has absorbed the upper air cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab. The weather system will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next 48 hours, after that it might further intensify into a depression due to change in track the rains have been delayed in Sindh but not vanished.

The system will move from south-eastern to central to coastal Sindh and eventually head to Makran coast as it will be in dissipating stages on August 16. The system might enter Sindh on August 12 now instead of previous dates. Under the influence of this weather system very heavy rainfall likely in Mirpur Khas, Badin, Umerkot and other towns and cities of south-eastern Sindh with very strong gusty winds (60 km/h). While heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds likely coastal cities of Sindh that is Karachi, Thatta and other adjoining cities. Hyderabad will also get rain during this period. The rains will now start from August 12 morning till August 15 mid-day. The system could drop heavy sheets of rainfall in Sindh, thus chances of flooding in Sindh during the weekend. Light to moderate showers might occur on August 10 in different parts of Sindh mostly south-eastern Sindh.

Update issued on August 9 at 2:00 pm PST

Yesterday’s low pressure over north-west Mayda Pradesh it will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in few days. Its track has changed since yesterday. It is likely to approach south-eastern Sindh on August 10/August 11, where it may further intensify. The system might will move to and fro over Sindh from August 10 till August 14 night, with strong intensity, during the period it will move towards upper Sindh then again to south-eastern Sindh and eventually from coastal Sindh to Makran coast on August 15.

Under the influence of this weather system, widespread rainfall with isolated very heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds (50 km/h to 60 km/h) likely in Sindh especially Mirpur Khas and Badin. Heavy rainfall also likely in coastal Sindh including Karachi from August 10 till August 14 night with few gaps. The system will head towards Makran coast on August 15.

Update issued on August 8 at 10:00 pm PST

Low pressure over north-west Madya Pradesh persists, it may further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next few days. It will follow a NW track towards upper Sindh and adjoining south Punjab instead of SW track. However change in track may occur in 24 hours after that no change likely.

Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall likely in upper and some parts of south-eastern Sindh including Sukkur. While the intensity of the rain will be heavy in coastal Sindh including Karachi. Winds are likely to be strong especially in upper and south-eastern Sindh where some wind storms may occur. Rains will start from August 10 and continue till August 14.

Update issued on August 8 at 3:00 pm PST

Yesterday’s UAC over Utter Pradesh has intensified into a low pressure area at present it is over north-west Madya Pradesh and adjoining areas of Utter Pradesh. The low pressure will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure area (strong weather system) before reaching Pakistan, it will maintain its intensity for few days. The system is now likely to move in a west direction according to GFS (towards south-eastern and Upper Sindh), instead of south-eastern Sindh and coastal Sindh to Makran coast.

Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall with very strong gusty winds likely across Sindh from August 10 to August 12 night/August 13 mid-day.

Update issued on August 7 at 9:00 pm PST

The upper air cyclonic circulations (UAC) over Utter Pradesh is likely to intensify into a low pressure in next 2 days (August 8 or August 9) now, it will acquire a south-west track before reaching Sindh on August 10/August 11. Certain models suggest it to intensify into depression, but it is more likely to become a low pressure or well-marked low.

Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds likely in Sindh from August 10 to August 12 night/August 13 mid-day.

Features of the weather systems

Below is the features of these weather systems (they may change as time passes by);

First low pressure

Most maps showing 200 mm rainfall in south-eastern Sindh.

An upper air cyclonic circulations formed in the central Bay of Bengal on July 28 that moved to north-west Bay of Bengal the same day, the UAC persisted over the north-west region of the Bay for many days. On August 2, the UAC moved to northern part of Bay of Bengal but the other day it once again headed to north-west Bay. After many days of stationary movement, the UAC on August 4 crossed the Orissa coast and late that day it entered Chhattisgarh. On August 5, the UAC moved to Utter Pradesh and the other day it moved to south-east Utter Pradesh. The UAC is currently moving in south-west direction after moving in a westwards direction. The Upper air cyclonic circulations are forecasted to intensify further, it will move from Utter Pradesh to Gujarat via Rajasthan and enter Sindh by August 11 morning/evening, it will completely enter Sindh on August 12 evening. It is very likely that this UAC will start to gain intensity to become a low pressure/well-marked low pressure on its way to Sindh. Very few models had went so far in suggesting that it would become a depression over land, that is something that is extremely rare. Overall the intensity of this system will be very strong.

Trough of western disturbance

On August 4, a western trough over the Afghanistan started moving towards Pakistan slowly, on August 5 it gained intensity and moved to north-east Afghanistan. It is currently moving in westwards towards Upper Pakistan. Interaction between western trough and strong monsoon moisture will take place in coming week in Upper Pakistan as forecasted by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

Second low pressure

Although it is too early to go in detail about this weather system but what PWP had observed about this system, PWP will share with its readers;

An upper air cyclonic circulations form over the Bay of Bengal and move inland on August 14 to Madya Pradesh, it will also move westwards. If it behaves as forecasted then it will bring the third spell to Sindh, if it is the opposite that no third monsoon rainfall in Sindh. Few days back, various meteorological parameters observed by the PWP showed that it will become a strong weather system (Low pressure) over Madya Pradesh and head towards South Punjab and upper Sindh. Whenever it forms or what ever track it selects, PWP will give updates.

This coverage will continue as long as chances of severe weather persist, it may also be canceled if conditions changes.

India

• From Orissa to Gujarat: A journey of UAC!

• Bay of Bengal in dead faint!

• No major weather system forming!
  

All India rainfall issued by the IMD

The monsoon is likely to remain active over parts of central India and the Gangetic plain during the weekend due to the expected upper air cyclonic circulations. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during next two days. Isolated heavy rainfall also likely over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on August 5.

The models used by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Centre and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Society at Columbia University, all show that no major rainfall is likely to generate. However Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) believes that monsoon should re-intensify from August 13.

Pakistan

• 5th – 4th – 2nd: Monsoon spells!!

• Karachi: Stages set for another monsoon spell!!

• Widespread monsoonal activity in Pakistan!

The 4th spell of monsoon in upper parts of Pakistan was extended due to two western trough that later moved to India few days back. The monsoon showers still continue to batter many parts of Northern Pakistan, even though the rains this year has been scanty. Pakistan is now entering that time of the year where monsoon is on its peak intensity, though this year the story has been different. Temperatures were mostly normal with slight increase as cloudy monsoonal weather prevailed much over the monsoon regions of the country as forecasted by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP). Humidity was extremely high in some northern parts of the country due to lack of westerlies as moist winds dominated the upper half of the country.What lies ahead for Pakistan? Well its week-long monsoon rains for some parts.

Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and Sindh. Monsoon covered the whole country on July 26, PWP forecasted on July 15 that monsoon will hit south-eastern and coastal Sindh during last week of July that came fruitful.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.”

PWP forecast: Valid from August 11 till August 12

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted on July 29 (Daily Update) that second monsoon spell may hit south-eastern and coastal Sindh in early August, earlier PWP forecasted and said;

“Moderate” chances of monsoon hitting Karachi during the end of second week of August.”

PWP upgraded that forecast to “high”, now PWP updates monsoon forecast to “extremely high” and we are confident that monsoon will cover the monsoon regions of Pakistan on August 11 mid-day or August 12 night. On August 5, PWP maintains it’s forecast to high at the moment.

Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during the coming week. Fifth monsoon spell has started in Islamabad, Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir. While the fifth monsoon spell will start to lose its intensity from August 6 mid-day or August 7 early morning, it will however gain intensity from August 8 while rains will continue in Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir till a week.

As of 6:00 pm PST August 21, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that the upper air cyclonic circulations over Chhattisgarh will move to south-east Utter Pradesh (happened on August 5). It will move westwards and enter Madya Pradesh where there are slim chances of intensification of this UAC into a low pressure/well-marked low pressure from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it may maintain its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to many parts of Pakistan (Punjab, Khyber and Sindh) while strong currents from Arabian sea while western trough will also enhance monsoonal activity over upper parts of Pakistan. The system will approach south-eastern Sindh by August 11 or August 12 morning, the system might maintain its intensity on its way to south Pakistan. Eventually it will start to dissipate after August 12 late .

Islamabad

The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 3, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will lose some of its intensity in next 2 to 3 days but will start to gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated above-heavy falls.

Mercury is expected to remain below normal in Islamabad;

• 32 °C to 35 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

Temperature from August 5 till August 12

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 3, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will lose some of its intensity in next 2 to 3 days but will start to gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated above-heavy falls.

In Northern Punjab, due to enhance monsoon activity, the temperatures found it difficult to rise and this condition is likely to continue. Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

• 34 °C to 36 °C in Lahore.
• 37 °C to 39 °C in Faisalabad.
• 28°C to 32°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 4, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will be weak in South Punjab till August 7, after that they will gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with scattered heavy falls.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

• 38 °C to 40 °C in Multan.
• 39 °C to 41 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The 4th spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till next 3 to 4 days with occasional gaps. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated very heavy falls.

Temperatures did slightly rise in some southern parts of the country while mercury found it difficult to rise in northern parts as cloudy cover and westerlies kept approaching the country.

• 39 °C to 42 °C in Sukkur.
• 40 °C to 41 °C also in Larkana.
• 40 °C to 42 °C in Nawabshah.

Precipitation from August 5 till August 12

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 2nd monsoon spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till next 3 days, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with isolated very heavy falls as a strong thunderstorm will be at the border of Gujarat-Sindh.

In Sindh, temperatures were in comfort zone with no high temperature though increase in humidity might have made it feel as if temperatures are rising;

• 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 2nd monsoon spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till 3 days, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with isolated very heavy falls.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

• 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi.

What lies ahead?-A long-range forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

• Two monsoon spells in August??
• 3rd monsoon rainfall for Karachi???
  

“Notice: This is a long-range forecast of PWP, it will definitely change in coming days. But PWP wants to share this long-range forecast with its readers.”

The third week (starting from August 14) is a little tricky as forecast and predictions are varying, some models including the famous GFS is showing a strong weather system over the state of Madya Pradesh to head towards Sindh-Gujarat while other show that due to moisture laden winds and enhanced monsoon activity the rains will continue in the monsoon belt of Pakistan even after the passing 4 days since Independence day. Although long-range forecast do change but it is something to watch as monsoon will be on its peak intensity from the second week of August.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) upgrades this forecast to “high”. This will be the third spell of monsoon in Sindh.

Death toll on hold as rains loses strength !

• Death toll remains at 63 since July 28

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had been observing the deaths in Pakistan that occur every monsoon season, since June 25 till July 28 a total of 63 people have died across the country the deaths have occurred due to heat waves, isolated flash flooding, windstorms and heavy rainfall. The death toll has not risen as the intensity and coverage of rain as reduced in the country while PWP do except that the death toll may rise as fresh monsoon activity likely from August 8, PWP Media will keep you update on every developing weather story in Pakistan.

Poll of the week

Are you satisfied with the monsoon performance this year in your city? tell Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) now;

Tornado as shown by national news channel

The former Soviet Union saw an unusual storm in the small town of Krasnozavodsk of the Moscow region. The world’s largest country usually gets extreme winter storms but a tornado send the country to think that what does global warming holds for Russia. What really happened?

On August 1, a rare and unusually powerful tornado created havoc in the city of Blagoveshchensk. Tornado had everything unusual; its strength, duration, location and the country in which it occurred. Russia does not have tornado-friendly climate like its cold war’s arch rival the United States of America.

First tornado since 2009

First tornado to be caught on camera in Russia

The twister lasted for 13 minutes, during its life time it killed 1 man while dozens were reported to be injured. The storm left pile of destruction every where it went, the resulting tornado shredded through the town, overturning cars, uprooting trees and destroying homes.  The  tornado was just 30 miles away from Moscow, Russia’s capital. Moscow region is also not new to tornadoes. Authorities in Russia’s Far East declared state of emergency in the wake of a powerful and rare tornado. The authorities in the Amur region estimate the damage to at 80 million rubles ($3 million), due to the storm.

It was the first tornado to sweep through any major city of Russia, the tornado has been labelled as “city tornado” due to its formation in the city. The twister struck Blagoveshchensk on Sunday night, killing one person and injuring dozens more. Blagoveshchensk, a city of 220,000 across the Amur River border from China, has a warm summer climate with occasional thunderstorms. However, tornadoes are rare, it will be not wrong if we say that tornadoes are extremely rare. Another formation of tornado in the city is unlikely but even if it does form, the tornado wont tell any body. Waterspouts are somewhat common, but once they hit land they die out.

History of tornadoes in Russia

Russia’s vast landmass does sometimes experience tornadoes. But it seems that many tornadoes have also formed near the Moscow region, following are the years of tornadoes that eyed Moscow;

• Tornado of June 29, 1904.
• Tornado of 1945.
• Tornado of 1970
• Tornado of 1971
• Tornado of 1984
• Tornado of 1987
• Tornado of 1994.
• Tornado of 1997, just 100 km away from Moscow city.
• Tornado of June 3, 2009

Great tornado of 1904

The 1904 tornado is one of only three disastrous tornadoes that occurred in central Russia in recorded history, the other being in 1984 and 2009. The 1904 tornado formed in the Moscow region and amazingly caused no deaths in the then-Soviet Union.

Formation of 1904 tornado

The formation of this tornado can be traced back to June 29, a summer thunderstorm formed in the Tular region of the Union, it then travelled northwards giving summer showers to many areas in its path the thunderstorm rapidly intensified due to good outflow and ample presence of moisture. When the cloud approached remote Moscow suburbs, it formed funnel cloud, and later a tornado formed that brought destruction. It was a F2 tornado on the Fujita Scale.

The Modern-day tornadoes of 1984

City came to standstill on August 1, 2011

Two tornadoes struck the region of Russia just North of Moscow. The first tornado was a very strong tornado as it was a F5 tornado on the Fujita Scale. The 1984 tornado outbreak was the worst in Russia, it killed a total of 4,00 people while some 213 people were injured

 Ivanovo tornado

This F5 tornado killed at least 95 people in the area while more than 130 people were injured. It was the largest, strongest and most long-lived tornado in the history of Russia as it covered a total of 81 miles (130 km).

Kostroma tornado

The exact strength in this tornado is not known but it is believed that it was a F4 tornado on the Fujita Scale, there are indications that the tornado may have attained F5 intensity. Widespread reports of destruction was reported from this tornado.

Post-Soviet Union tornado of 2009

It was the first tornado since 1984 that created havoc in the city of Krasnozavodsk, Moscow region. It was a F3 tornado on the Fujita Scale. The storm damaged some 40 buildings while 1 person was killed and some 180 people were injured when the tornado touched the ground. The tornado was the first intense tornado to impact the Moscow region in nearly 25 years.

Formation of 2009 tornado

On June 3, 2009, a low pressure area formed over the Baltic Sea that collided with a warm air, creating atmospheric instability in the atmosphere. The usual interaction caused some severe thunderstorms to form in a line in the Moscow region. One of the thunderstorms broke off and developed into a supercell about 30 km from Moscow.  The supercell gave birth to a powerful F3 tornado in Krasnozavodsk.

So the answer is that, no! it was not new.

This is actually a part of Monsoon of Pakistan page

July rainfall for major cities

Following are the rainfall recorded from Jule 1 till July 31 in the capital and provincial capital cities of Pakistan;

• Islamabad got 728 mm rainfall, above than monthly normal.
• Lahore got 405 mm rainfall, above than monthly normal.
• Muzaffarabad got 201 mm rainfall, below than monthly normal.
• Peshawar got 67.2 mm rainfall, above than monthly normal.
• Karachi got 8.2, below than monthly normal.
• Quetta got 1 mm, below than monthly normal.

Date of issue – July 31

“4th monsoon spell ends”

“Month ends with above monsoon rainfall in Punjab again”

*Upper air cyclonic circulations persist over north-west Bay of Bengal that could intensify into a low pressure in next few days. There is also another upper air cyclonic circulations over Gujarat.

*The 4th monsoon spell is over in the country as continental air is prevailing over most of the country however few events of showers still likely as western trough is present over Jammu & Kashmir. Light rainfall could also occur in North-eastern Punjab. While light drizzle in Karachi, south-eastern and coastal Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded today in Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Punjab
• Faisalabad got 27 mm.
• Lahore got 15 mm.
• Okara got 60.3 mm.
• Shorkot got 40 mm.
• Khyber
• D.G Khan got 12.5 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 27 mm.

Date of issue – July 30

4th spell coming to an end!

*The Upper air cyclonic circulations persist over South Punjab, while another UAC is over Bay of Bengal, it may intensify into a low pressure in few days.

*Western trough moves into Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining Pakistani areas,under that influence rainfall activity will decrease all over the Upper parts of the country. However due to presence of monsoon moisture, some more showers with isolated moderate falls still likely in North-eastern Punjab, while light showers also expected in South Punjab. While drizzle in coastal Sindh likely too till 36 hours. Weather will remain hot and dry in other parts of the country. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded till 11:00 am PST in some cities of Pakistan;

• Punjab
• D.G Khan got 2 mm.
• Jhelum got 3 mm.
• Mandi got 5 mm.
• Mangla got 2 mm.
• Kashmir 
• Astore got 5 mm.
• Khyber
• Parachinar got 6 mm.
• Kalam got 7 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got TR
• Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 29

*Upper air cyclonic circulations over coastal Sindh will dissipate in 12 hours, while another UAC is over South Punjab. Another UAC is over west Utter Pradesh. The fourth UAC is over north-west Bay of Bengal that may strengthen into a low pressure in few days.

*Western trough and monsoon moisture continues to interact over upper Pakistan under the influence of this interaction, more fourth monsoon showers at times isolated heavy likely in Islamabad, North Punjab, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. Lahore, Faisalabad and other adjoining cities could also get isolated heavy rainfall in 36 hours and then a decrease is likely but weak form of this spell will continue till end of July. In South Punjab, light to isolated moderate showers with thunder and lightening likely during the same period. In Sindh, south-eastern and coastal parts could get drizzle in next 2 days. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded till 11:00 am PST in some cities of Pakistan;

• Islamabad got 33 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 39 mm.
• Kamra got 18 mm.
• Mianwali got 30 mm.
• Murree got 24 mm.
• Khyber
• Malam Jabba got 2 mm.
• Cherat got 4 mm.
• Risalaur got 98 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 1 mm.
• Balochistan
• Sibbi got 28 mm.
• Barkhan got 17 mm.

Date of issue – July 28

Western and eastern interaction continues

2 people dead in Punjab: PWP Media

*The upper air cyclonic circulations is near Sindh coast and would dissipate in 36 hours, another UAC is over South Punjab. The third UAC has formed over north-west Bay of Bengal that may strengthen into a low pressure in few days.

*Western trough and monsoon moisture continues to interact over upper Pakistan under the influence of this interaction a thunderstorm has formed that PWP reported yesterday. More fourth monsoon showers at times isolated heavy likely in Islamabad, North Punjab, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. Lahore, Faisalabad and other adjoining cities could also get isolated heavy rainfall in 36 hours and then a decrease is likely but weak form of this spell will continue. In South Punjab, light to isolated moderate showers with thunder and lightening likely during the same period. In Sindh, south-eastern and coastal parts could get drizzle in next 2 days.

*2 more people have been killed by rains and winds in Punjab thus the death toll has rised to 63 in Pakistan since June 25, PWP will monitor the death rates during monsoon season. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded till 11:00 am PST in some cities of Pakistan;

• Punjab
• Faisalabad got 22 mm.
• Jhelum got 13 mm.
• Joharabad got 95 mm.
• Mianwali got 84 mm.
• Noorpur got 54 mm.
• Sargodha got 51 mm.
• Khyber
• Balakot got 12 mm.
• Islamabad, Sindh and Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 27

UAC moving westwards from Gujarat coast – Not a significant system now!

Western trough present over Pakistan – interacting with eastern moisture

2 people killed in Sindh while 8 in Bannu : PWP media

*Upper air cyclonic circulations after week long journey, touched the coast of Gujarat and are now moving westwards though it is extremely weak but one or two drizzle/light showers could occur in Karachi from July 28 mid-day/evening till July 29 night. Another UAC is over South Punjab which could cause some isolated thunder/light rain to moderate rain with chances (15%-25%) of few isolated heavy falls in Multan and other adjoining cities. A trough is also present over western coast of India.

*Western trough continues to interact with monsoon moisture over Upper Pakistan under that influence some more isolated heavy monsoon showers likely in Islamabad, north Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot and other adjoining cities) Kashmir and eastern Khyber. PWP has forecasted that there are chances (35%-45%) of development of a strong thunderstorm over Upper Pakistan by July 28 on PWP-FB. Death toll rises to 61 in Pakistan since June 25, as 2 people have died in Sindh due to recent wind storms/rains while 8 people have died in Bannu due to isolated flash flooding in the region. PWP media will keep an eye on death toll that occurs due to weather-related incidents in Pakistan during monsoon season. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded till 11:00 am PST today in some cities of Pakistan;

• Islamabad got 15 mm.
• Punjab
• Kamra got 25 mm.
• Mianwali got 31 mm.
• Khyber
• Malam Jabba got 21 mm.
• Cherat got 15 mm.
• Lower DIR got 15 mm also.
• Sindh
• Karachi got 7.2 mm.
• Hyderabad got 4 mm.
• Mithi got 2 mm.
• Balochistan
• Ormara got 6 mm.

Date of issue – July 26

“Monsoon hits Karachi as forecasted by PWP”

*As forecasted by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) since July 15, monsoon hit Karachi, coastal Sindh and south-eastern Sindh during last week of July as predicted by PWP. Monsoon hit Karachi on July 26 while south-eastern Sindh saw monsoon arrival on July 25.

*UAC is still present over south Gujarat while another is off the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

*Due to interaction between western trough and monsoon moisture more showers at times isolated moderate/heavy likely in Islamabad, Punjab and parts of Khyber. Chances of more but now drizzle/light spotty showers may occur in some parts of Sindh including Karachi. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded till 11:00 am PST today;

• Islamabad got 90 mm.
• Punjab
• Kamra got 68 mm.
• Murree got 20 mm.
• Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 32 mm.
• Khyber
• Risalapur got 175 mm.
• Sindh
• Badin got 31 mm.
• Chhor got 6 mm.
• Mithi got 3 mm.
• Nawabshah got 22 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 4 mm.

Date of issue – July 25

Low pressure now UAC – Another over BOB

Western and eastern interaction causes 129 mm rainfall in Islamabad till 6:00 pm 

9 lives taken today due to weather related incidents: PWP media

*Yesterday’s low pressure weakens into a upper air cyclonic circulations (UAC), it is over south Rajasthan and north Gujarat. Another UAC is over west central Bay of Bengal. Under the influence of the previous UAC, scattered moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall still likely in coastal  (Karachi, Keti, Shah bander) and south-eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Badin, Hyderabad) till July 26 mid-day, monsoon of 2011 has hit south-eastern Sindh as forecasted by PWP on July 15.

*A western trough over Giglit and Jammu & Kashmir persist that is still interacting with the monsoon moisture coming from the Arabian sea and UAC. Under the influence of these conditions scattered heavy rainfall to isolated very heavy rainfall likely in Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot and other adjoining cities), Kashmir and Khyber. This 4th spell will continue with peak but ocassional gaps in these areas till July 26 morning/mid-day/evening, then decrease is likely.  In Southern Punjab (Multan,Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan and other adjoining cities) the 4th spell will continue till July 26 morning, rain will be mostly light to moderate in South Punjab. In Upper Sindh (Larkana, Sukker and other adjoining cities), the 3rd spell will cause scattered moderate rainfall with slim chances of isolated heavy falls likely till July 26 mid-day.

*As forecasted by the Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) in Pakistan update’s article on July 21, very heavy rainfall have occurred in Islamabad and adjoining areas of Punjab thus some 5 people died in Rawalpindi while 4 have been reported to sink in a local nullah. Rising the death toll to over all 51 since June 25.  Following is the amount of rainfall recorded today in Pakistan of few cities till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad, capital got 50 mm. (Highest till 11:00 am in Pakistan)
• Punjab
• Sialkot got 8 mm.
• Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 2 mm.
• Khyber
• Risalpur got 18 mm.
• Peshawar got 2 mm.
• Sindh
• Hyderabad got 3 mm.
• Mirpur khas got 1 mm.
• Balochistan
• Lasbela got 9 mm.

Date of issue – July 24

Well-marked low pressure now a low pressure – rapidly weakening!

Western trough & Eastern moisture interaction: Very heavy rainfall in Punjab

Heat waves takes 2 more lives: PWP media report

*Yesterday’s well-marked low pressure has further weakened into a low pressure today. Its is over East Rajasthan and North-west Madya Pradesh, it is moving in a WSW direction towards Sindh. The low may reach Sindh now July 25 morning, while its influence may start in Sindh from July 24 mid-night. Under the influence of this system, widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall in Gujarat, Rajasthan and West Madya Pradesh in 24 to 48 hours then from July 25, scattered moderate rainfall (65%-70%) with chances (45%-55%) of isolated heavy falls and fast winds in coastal (Karachi, Keti, Shah bander) and South-eastern (Mirpur Khas, Badin, Hyderabad) Sindh till July 26 mid-day.

*There is a western trough over Giglit and Jammu & Kashmir that is interacting with the monsoon moisture coming from the Arabian sea and monsoon low pressure. Under the influence of these conditions scattered heavy rainfall to isolated very heavy rainfall and gusty winds likely in Islamabad, Northern Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot and other adjoining cities), Kashmir and Khyber. This 4th spell will continue with peak in these areas till July 26 morning/mid-day/evening, then decrease is likely.  In Southern Punjab (Multan,Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan and other adjoining cities) the 4th spell will continue till July 26 morning, rain will be mostly light to moderate in South Punjab. In Upper Sindh (Larkana, Sukker and other adjoining cities), the 3rd spell will cause scattered moderate rainfall with chances of isolated heavy falls likely from July 24 mid-day/July 25 morning till July 26 mid-day.

*Heat wave in upper Sindh has not vanished as 2 people have died due to heat stroke on July 23, thus the death toll has raised to 42 in Pakistan since June 25 according to Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s media reports. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded today in Pakistan of few cities till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad, capital got 99 mm. (Highest till 11:00 am in Pakistan)
• Punjab
• Jhelum got 49 mm.
• Lahore got 53 mm.
• Mangla got 51 mm.
• Murree got 35 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 21 mm.
• Rawalakot got 38 mm.
• Khyber
• Balakot got 79 mm.
• Peshawar got traces.
• Sindh
• Karachi got traces.
• Balochistan remained dry

Date of issue – July 23

“Depression now well-marked low pressure area”

“Western trough over North Pakistan”

*Yesterday’s depression is now over North Madya Pradesh as a well-marked low pressure area. It will move towards Sindh between July 24 and July 25.

*A western trough is over Gilgit and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir, it is interacting with monsoon currents from Arabian sea and monsoon low, under this influence isolated showers with thunder and winds likely in upper Pakistan that is Islamabad, Lahore, Faisalabad, Peshawar and other adjoining cities and increase after July 23 night. In lower Pakistan, the moisture from the well-marked low has started reaching Sindh, under that influence light showers in south-eastern Sindh and drizzle in coastal Sindh in 24 hours and increase there after. This is the 4th monsoon spell in Punjab, Khyber. While the second in Upper Sindh and 1st in south-eastern and coastal Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded today in Pakistan till 11:00 am PST:

• Punjab
• Lahore got 20 mm.
• Khyber
• Kalam got 2 mm.
• Other parts of Pakistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 22

“Low pressure gains strength to become a depression”

“4th monsoon spell has started in upper Pakistan”

*Yesterday’s low pressure has intensified into a depression and has moved from Jharkhand to south-east Utter Pradesh. Under the influence of this depression, widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Madya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Utter Pradesh and Gujarat. This depression will start to lose intensity in 24 hours and eventually become a well-marked low pressure area. Some models suggesting a WSW track while others are showing a WNW track. This system will affect Pakistan.

*The 4th monsoon spell has started in upper parts of Pakistan as monsoon moisture has started reaching upper parts of the country. Western trough is also interacting with the monsoon currents, therefore light to moderate showers likely during the next 48 hours in upper Punjab, Kashmir and parts of Khyber, rainfall intensity is very likely to increase from July 23 night in Upper parts of Pakistan. Rains will spread to other parts of the country after July 23 night, depending upon the track of this system. However drizzle in coastal Sindh and south-eastern Sindh in next 36 hours. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded today in Pakistan till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 68 mm.
• Khyber
• Balakot got 39 mm.
• Bannu got 25 mm.
• Kohat got 12 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 8 mm.
• Some cities of Punjab got traces.
• Sindh and Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 21

“Low pressure area over West Bengal”

*Strong equatorial cross flow over Arabian sea still persist. Yesterday’s UAC over West Bengal intensify into a low pressure area, while another UAC is over Utter Pradesh.

*Mostly dry, humid and hot likely over Pakistan during next 24 to 48 hours. There is a western trough over North Pakistan with weak monsoon moisture under that influence some isolated showers with thunder likely in 12 to 24 hours in Northern Punjab and Kashmir. Fresh monsoon rainfall to begin in some parts after 48 hours. Following is the rainfall recorded in Pakistan today till 11:00 pm PST;

• Sialkot, Punjab got 3 mm.
• Kotli, Kashmir got 2 mm.

Date of issue – July 20

*Strong equatorial cross flow over Arabian sea still persist. Satellite image indicates massive clouds over North-West Bay of Bengal and some parts India, mainly central parts. UAC is over Utter Pradesh, while another one is over West Bengal.

*A western trough in over Gilgit and Jammu & Kashmir, while monsoon currents are mostly absent in the country except some weak currents over Kashmir. No rainfall likely in Pakistan during next 24 hours to 48 hours, however light showers could occur in Kashmir. Heat wave have returned to southern Pakistan as temperatures were 45°C in some cities of Upper Sindh as forecasted by PWP. This heat wave have killed 4 people in Jamshoro today and the death toll has risen from 36 to 40. These deaths are all weather-related and have occurred since June 25. No rainfall occurred in Pakistan today.

Date of issue – July 19

*Strong equatorial cross flow over Arabian sea persist. Low pressure now not forming in the Arabian sea according to GFS.

*Western trough present over Northern Pakistan and India’s Kashmir, while weak monsoon moisture interacting with it. Some isolated light to moderate showers (chances 25%-30%) likely in parts of Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir, while drizzle in coastal Sindh (5%-10%) and light rainfall (chances 10%-20%) in south-eastern Sindh. Other parts of country will remain dry and hot. Following is the rainfall of some cities in Pakistan that occurred till 11:00 am PST today;

• Punjab
• Joharabad got 33 mm.
• Lahore got 28 mm.
• Khyber
• Peshawar got 7 mm.
• Sindh
• Diplo got 4 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 7 mm.

Date of issue – July 18

*Upper air cyclonic circulations over Gujarat, Madya Pradesh and Punjab, while a strong equatorial cross flow over Arabian sea. Some models are showing a low pressure to form in the Arabian sea off the coast of Gujarat-Maharashtra border in next 2 to 3 days. Extremely heavy rainfall likely over central western coast of India. at least 150,000 people affected by floods in eastern India

*A western trough in over Gilgit and India’s Kashmir, while weak monsoon currents are seen interacting with the western trough. Under that influence, light to moderate rainfall in parts of Punjab, Khyber and Khyber. Due to presence of moist-laden winds near Sindh, some isolated showers may occur in south-eastern Sindh, while drizzle may coastal and upper Sindh. These conditions will continue till 24 hours. Rise in temperatures in many parts of Pakistan can be seen today as forecasted by PWP. Following is the amount of rainfall in Pakistan today till 11:00 am PST, only these cities got rainfall;

• Punjab
• Mianwali got 50 mm.
• Noorpur got 14 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzzaffarabad got 7 mm.
• Khyber
• Parachinar got 5 mm.
• Sindh
• Chor got 4 mm
• Mithi got 2 mm
• Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 17

*Upper air cyclonic circulation present over North-west Bay of Bengal and Gujarat. Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over the south-western coastal areas of India including Bombay and Gujarat coast. Strong cross equatorial flow present in the Arabian sea and likely to persist.

*Hot and dry weather all over the country except some areas of Upper Sindh and South Punjab, where isolated showers likely during the next 24 to 36 hours. Third monsoon spell over in Pakistan, thus the temperatures have started rising in the country. Karachi saw 39 °C today due to change of wind direction, some clouds likely during night and the morning of July 18. Following is the amount of rainfall of some cities in Pakistan recorded till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 4 mm.
• Punjab
• Jhelum got 32 mm.
• Mangla got 44 mm.
• Sialkot got 13 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got traces
• Rawalkot got 13 mm.
• Khyber
• Parachinar got 12 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 13 mm.
• Sibbi got 12 mm.
• Sindh remained dry.

Date of issue – July 16

“There was no severe weather ahead in the first place!”

“Third spell coming to an end slowly slowly”

*There was never a chance of severe weather or any urban/flash flooding in the Upper parts of Pakistan as the national meteorological office issued severe weather warning yesterday. At the same time PWP issued a update on twitter and told that normal monsoon rainfall would occur in Upper parts of Pakistan and no severe weather or any kind of flooding was not likely and PWP was right.

*Yesterday’s monsoon low pressure over north Madya Pradesh and south Utter Pradesh dissipates.

*More thunderstorms likely as the third spell of monsoon continues in Upper Pakistan, though intensity has weakened in upper parts of Pakistan, there will be light to moderate rainfall in North Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir till July 17 mid-day. Islamabad could also get some showers till July 17. In Southern Punjab and upper Sindh, some isolated showers could occur till July 17 night. After July 17 night the third monsoon spell will be finished in Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir while the second monsoon spell will be finished in upper Sindh.

As for coastal Sindh, some light to moderate drizzle likely tomorrow, after that temperatures will rise in the country. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred till 11:00 pm PST;

• Islamabad got 83 mm.
• Punjab
• Kamra got 35 mm.
• Lahore got 1 mm.
• Multan got 6 mm.
• Murree got 35 mm.
• Sargodha got 41 mm.
• Sialkot got 12 mm.
• Khyber
• Balakot got 43 mm.
• Kakul got 22 mm.
• Kashmir
• Muzafarabad got 18 mm.
• Sindh
• Larkana got 10 mm.
• Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 15

“Low pressure over India”

“Western trough and monsoon currents interacting”

*A low pressure persists over India, it has moved from east to north Madya Pradesh. Under the influence of this weather system, widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over central and northern India.

*Western trough and strong monsoon currents are interacting with each other over Upper Pakistan. Under that influence scattered moderate rainfall to heavy rainfall with thunder and winds in north and south Punjab, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. Heavy rainfall expected in the cities of Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad, Muzaffarabad, Sahiwal, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Peshawar and other adjoining cities. Weather will remain hot and dry in Sindh and Balochistan, with few events of drizzle in coastal and south-eastern Sindh. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded today in Pakistan till 11:00 pm PST;

• Islamabad got 15 mm.
• Punjab
• Chakwal got 41 mm.
• Lahore got 1 mm.
• Kamra got 8 mm.
• Jhelum got 12 mm.
• Mandi-bahu-din got 75 mm. (Highest)
• Gujranwala got 30 mm.
• Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 15 mm.
• Kotli got 11 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 1 mm.
• Khyber
• Dir got 43 mm.
• Malam Jabba got 62 mm.
• Parachinar got 19 mm.
• Sindh and Balochistan remained dry and hot.

Date of issue – July 14

“Heavy monsoon rainfall to start in Upper Pakistan” 

*A weak low pressure Chhatisgarh, India persist. Under the influence widespread heavy rainfall likely over central, north-east, north-west and some western areas of India.

*Western trough and monsoon currents have started interacting with each other from July 14, during the next 2 days starting from July 14 night till July 16 night, heavy monsoon rainfall with isolated very heavy falls likely in Punjab including Lahore, eastern Khyber including Peshawar and Kashmir.South Punjab that is Multan, will also get heavy rainfall during the same period. Islamabad will also get heavy rainfalls with isolated very heavy rainfall during the same period, after July 16 night the rains will become scattered. This third monsoon spell will continue till July 18. These rainfall will be accompained by thunder, lightening and fast to strong winds. Other parts of Pakistan will remain dry, however in coastal Sindh few drizzle may occur till July 16. Following is the amount of rainfall in Pakistan recorded till 11:00 pm PST;

• Islamabad, capital got 78 mm. (highest)
• Punjab
• Kamra got 40 mm.
• Lahore got 22 mm.
• Murree got 32 mm.
• Sialkot got 44 mm.
• Kashmir
• Rawalakot got 50 mm.
• Khyber
• Kakul got 13 mm.
• Risalpur got 9 mm.
• Sindh and Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 13

“Low pressure over the Bay of Bengal”

“Third monsoon spell reaching Upper Pakistan tonight”

“Western trough reaching Pakistan on July 14 night”

*A weak low pressure area forms in the North-West Bay of Bengal, PWP gave a news about this low pressure on July 7. This weather system will increase monsoon activity over many parts of India.

*Third monsoon spell to start in Upper parts of Pakistan, moderate monsoon moisture and western trough are likely to start interacting from July 14 night, under thats influence moderate with isolated heavy rainfall likely in Northern Punjab, eastern Khyber and Kashmir. Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Sargodha and Islamabad will also get isolated heavy rainfall at times starting from tonight. In southern Punjab including Multan, some isolated rainfall with moderate falls likely from July 14 night. This third spell will start from July 13 night with drizzle, gain intensity on July 14 mid-day and continue till July 17 night/July 18 morning with occasional gaps, the intensity of monsoon moisture will increase from moderate to strong from July 14. Second monsoon spell may start in Upper Sindh including Sukkur around July 16 night and continue till 24 hours, as some thunderstorms might form over Upper Sindh.

In coastal and South-eastern Sindh including Karachi, due to the expected increasing level of monsoon moisture, mostly cloudy/cloudy weather will return with few events of drizzle. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded till 11:00 PST today;

• Lahore, Punjab got 19 mm.
• Rawalakot, Kashmir got 5 mm.
• Karachi, Sindh got traces.

Date of issue – July 12

“Low pressure forming in the Bay of Bengal”

“No Monsoon rainfall – Hot and dry in Pakistan till 24 to 48 hours”

*Upper air cyclonic circulations over North-West Bay of Bengal to convert into a weak low pressure on July 12 night (tonight) or July 13, PWP gave a news about this low pressure on July 7. This weather system will bring widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall to many parts of India, it may move westwards.

*Western trough to approach Pakistan on July 14 night or July 15 morning. Hot, dry and humid in almost all parts of Pakistan during the next 24 to 48 hours. Following is the amount of monsoon rainfall recorded till 11:00 pm PST today;

• No rainfall in any part of Pakistan except Barkhan, Baluchistan where 24 mm rainfall occurred.

Date of issue – July 11

*A fresh low pressure may form in the Bay of Bengal either tomorrow or day after tomorrow.

*Hot and dry in many parts of the country till 48 hours. Following is the amount of rainfall in Pakistan till 11:00 PST today;

• Jhelum got 2 mm.
• Mianwali got 3 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 2 mm.
• Malam jabba got 5 mm.
• Sindh and Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 10

*Isolated thunder showers might occur at one or two places of Punjab including Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan and other adjoining cities of Punjab. Overall dry and humid weather is expected in most parts of the country. This rainy second monsoon spell will end tonight or tomorrow morning, after that a dry period in expected all over the country for 24 to 48 hours. Following is the rainfall recorded today till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad got 20 mm.
• Kamra got 30 mm.
• Multan got TR.
• Risalpur got 33 mm.
• Barkhan got 4 mm.

Date of issue – July 9

“Monsoon covers India – One week ahead!”

“Monsoon advances into Upper Sindh as expected by PWP”

*Monsoon has advanced into the remaining parts of Rajasthan and has now covered whole India on July 9, a week eariler than normal onset date. Isolated heavy rainfall may occur in Gujarat and Rajasthan during the next 48 hours. Western trough present over Indian Kashmir.

*Monsoon has advanced into very few areas of upper Sindh while many areas of South Punjab, monsoon has covered Khyber, North Punjab and Kashmir completely, western trough now leaving Pakistan. More isolated to scattered rainfall likely in Punjab including Lahore and Faisalabad, Khyber including Peshawar and Kashmir. In Southern Punjab and Upper Sindh, Multan and Sukkur, may get isolated light rainfall. This spell will continue in Punjab, Upper Sindh, Khyber and Kashmir till 24 to 48 hours after that a brief gap is expected. In coastal parts of Sindh including Karachi may get drizzle during the next 48 hours with windy conditions, while south-eastern Sindh may get brief light rainfall in 48 hours. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred till 11:00 am PST today;

• Islamabad, capital got 75 mm.
• Punjab: Khanpur got 44 mm.
• Lahore got 104 mm.
• Sialkot got 98 mm.
• Khyber: Pattan got 48 mm.
• Peshawar got 30 mm.
• Sindh: Jacobabad got 31 mm.
• Rohri got 42 mm.
• Dadu got 3 mm.
• Sukkur got 8 mm.
• Larkana got TR.
• Balochistan: Barkhan got 16 mm.
• Quetta got 1 mm.

Date of issue – July 8

“Second spell of monsoon lashing Upper Pakistan”

“Monsoon surrounds whole Gujarat – Rajasthan to be surrounded in 2 to 3 days”

“Monsoon hitting Upper Sindh in 24 to 48 hours”

*Low pressure has dissipated over west Madya Pradesh. Monsoon has advanced over whole Gujarat and most of Rajasthan. It will advance over whole Rajasthan in 2 to 3 days and India will be covered by monsoon after that. A fresh low pressure area might form in the Bay of Bengal in about 4 to 6 days.

*Monsoon currents and western trough continue to affect Pakistan. Scattered light to scattered moderate with isolated heavy rainfall likely over North Punjab and eastern Khyber. In North Punjab, Lahore, Faisalabad and all other adjoining cities will get moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls. In Khyber, Peshawar will also get Moderate rainfall. In South Punjab, Multan will also get light rainfall with isolated moderate falls. This spell will continue till 2 to 3 days, after that a gap is expected.

In Sindh, Karachi and coastal Sindh will remain covered with few passing clouds or some cloudy cover that may cause drizzle till July 10 mid-night, conditions will be windy. Chances of monsoon entering Upper Sindh including Sukkur in next 48 hours, however rainfall will isolated drizzle/light rainfall in nature. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded today till 11:00 am PST;

• Islamabad, Capital got 12 mm.
• Mianwali, Punjab got 22 mm.
• Sialkot got 5 mm.
• Muzaffarabad, Kashmir got 16 mm.
• Bannu, Khyber got 67 mm.
• Peshawar got 3 mm.
• Kakul got 25 mm.
• Risalpur got 32 mm.
• While Sindh and Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 7

*A weak low pressure is now over Madya Pradesh and will keep causing isolated very heavy rainfall over the areas which are under its influence. Monsoon will further advance into some more parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan in 24 to 48 hours. A fresh low pressure might form in the Bay of Bengal in 4 to 5 days.

*Second monsoon spell has reached Punjab including Lahore, Kashmir, Islamabad and Khyber and under that influence scattered light to moderate showers with isolated heavy rainfall likely in some parts of Punjab and Khyber. The monsoon currents are also interacting with a western trough that is over Gilgit and Azad Kashmir, and moving towards Indian Kashmir. In South Punjab, Multan is also expected to get light to isolated moderate rainfall. Balochistan will remain hot and dry.The second monsoon spell will continue till 3 to 4 days in Upper Pakistan after that it is expected that a break will follow and after that a third spell of monsoon will hit these same areas. First Monsoon spell has not hit any part of Sindh yet, however drizzle is expected in Karachi till July 10 night, while light rainfall may also occur in south-eastern Sindh during the same period. Following is the amount of rainfall today till 11 am PST;

• Islamabad got 51 mm.
• Jhelum, Punjab got 73 mm.
• Murree got 49 mm.
• Sialkot got 35 mm.
• Gujarawala got 55 mm.
• Muzaffarabad, Azad Kashmir got 52 mm.
• Kakul, Khyber got 28 mm.
• Panjgur, Balochistan got 7 mm.
• Zhob got 4mm
• Sindh remained dry.

Date of issue – July 6

“Second monsoon spell to hit Punjab”

“Low pressure over India”

*The Low pressure area that was over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining Telengana has now moved over Vidarbha and adjoining south Chhattisgarh and Telangana. The low will bring widespread rainfall activity over India. Monsoon has hit some more parts of Gujarat, and the intensity of monsoon will gradually increase after 24 to 48 hours. The low is sending monsoon currents to Pakistan.

*The second spell of monsoon will hit Punjab including Lahore and Faisalabad either tonight or tomorrow morning, while eastern Khyber will get rainfall from tomorrow night. Scattered Light to Scattered moderate monsoon rainfall will occur in these provinces with isolated heavy falls till few days. Rainfall expected in Kashmir and Islamabad too during this period. Balochistan, that is large part will remain dry. Second monsoon rainfall expected in South Punjab including Multan from July 7 mid-night. In Sindh, south-eastern parts (Badin and Mirpur Khas) may get one or two brief first monsoon of 2011 light rainfall/showers from July 7 night. Coastal parts including Karachi will get some clouds/overcast, while chances of light rainfall from July 8.

*Altocumulus clouds and Cirrus clouds were observed in Karachi on July 6, that were coming from NE, winds also changed their direction from WSW to WNW this morning. Following is the amount of rainfall in Pakistan today;

• No rainfall occurred in any part of Pakistan today.

Date of issue – July 5

*UAC over Bay of Bengal converted into a low pressure, the system will revive the monsoon that was on short break, widespread rainiy activty likely over India including central india. Monsoon expected to advance into Gujarat and Rajasthan after 24 hours. The low will lose intensity rapidly.

*Hot, dry and Humid conditions over Punjab, Khyber, Balochistan, Sindh, FATA and Gilgit. However one or two showers might occur in Kashmir. Second spell of monsoon will start from after 48 hours in Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir. The first monsoon spell of 2011 “may” hit Sindh during next 3 to 4 days with strong gusty winds. However not all models suggest that first monsoon spell will hit Sindh any time soon.  Following is the amount of rainfall in Pakistan today;

• Parachinar got 24 mm rainfall.
• No rainfall was reported in Pakistan today.

Date of issue – July 4

*UAC forms over North-west Bay of Bengal, it should revive the monsoon that is on break for 3 days in India.

*Dry and humid weather likely over most parts of Pakistan, few isolated drizzle to light rain could occur in few parts of Northern Punjab and adjoining Khyber. Partly cloudy in coastal Sindh.

Following are the amount of rainfall in Pakistan today;

• Lahore, Punjab got 31 mm.
• Islamabad traces.
• Multan, Punjab traces.
• Jhang, Punjab got 62 mm.
• Sibbi, Balochistan got 33 mm.
• Sindh remained dry.

Date of issue – July 3

“Monsoon on break for 3 days!”

“Dry and humid mostly – Few rainfall in Punjab”

*Few isolated rainfall accompained by lightening/thunder with fast winds in parts Punjab especially Lahore and Faisalabad during next 36 hours to 48 hours, a weak western trough is over upper parts of Pakistan that is interacting with monsoon currents. Mainly hot, dry and humid else where with partly/mostly cloudy periods. Monsoon is now on break, should revive around July 6. Monsoon will then advance further in those areas where monsoon has not settled yet including Indian state of Gujarat and Rajasthan.

In Sindh, coastal areas and south-eastern parts will see partly cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions. Atleast 8 people have died in Punjab due to dust storms and rain, increasing the death toll to 29 since June 25 in Pakistan, these deaths were all weather-related. Following is the amount of rainfall;

• Islamabad got 5 mm.
• Mianwali got 17 mm.
• Risalpur go 41 mm.
• Sindh and Balochistan remained dry.

Date of issue – July 2

*More isolated rainfall with thunder/lightening with isolated moderate falls likely at few places of Punjab including Lahore, Faisalabad. In Multan, drizzle to light rainfall may occur however partly sunny conditions will prevail mostly. Islamabad, may get isolated rainfall too. In Khyber province, only eastern parts may get isolated light rainfall including Peshawar. In Balochistan, north-eastern parts may get some one or two isolated light rainfall. This spell will dissipate in 36 hours. After that dry with partly cloudy/cloudy weather with few events of drizzle/light rainfall but mostly dry weather expected in those areas till few days.

In Sindh, south-eastern parts that is Mirpur Khas and Badin may get drizzle. In coastal Sindh, partly cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions to prevail. Following are the monson rainfall recorded today;

• Lahore, Punjab got 16 mm.
• Multan, Punjab got 4 mm.
• Okara, Punjab got 57 mm.
• Sahiwal, Punjab got 32 mm.
• Muzaffarabad, Kashmir got 4 mm.
• D.I Khan, Khyber got 35 mm.
• Khuzdar, Balcohistan got 8 mm.
• Badin, Sindh got TR.

Date of issue – July 1

Bay of Bengal to get active soon for monsoon!

Monsoon in full swing in Punjab!

*A low pressure dissipated over central India. Western trough moving towards east, over Indian Kashmir.

*More scattered thunder showers likely in Northern Punjab including Islamabad and Lahore. While isolated showers in eastern Khyber and Azad Kashmir. In Southern Punjab, isolated rainfall with thunder likely including Multan. In Sindh, mainly sunny conditions in the province, however cloudy conditions with sunny intervals expected in coastal Sindh including Karachi. Following are the monsoon rainfall recorded on July 1 for some cities;

• Lahore, Punjab got 61 mm rainfall.
• Islamabad got 34 mm rainfall.
• Murree, Punjab got 30 mm rainfall.
• Multan, Punjab got TR.
• Kakul, Khyber got 15 mm rainfall.
• Barkhan, Balochistan got 12 mm rainfall.
• While Balochistan and Sindh remained dry.

Aftermath of Kashmir Earthquake: Common scene during Quakes!

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has faced a lot in its 64 year life, both in terms of man-made as well as natural disasters. Pakistan faces a severe threat from natural disaster but which disaster is the worst for Pakistan? Well, its earthquake. History has shown us that Pakistan is indeed situated near highly active fault line that could put risk to more than 170 million people living in the country. What are the precautions needed to avoid earthquake?

Precautions for Earthquake

Earthquake is an unexpected event which cannot be predicted in advance. Hence, the only way to save yourself, is with adequate preventive measures. Here is an earthquake safety checklist that will help you in your preparation work in this regard:

• The first step of earthquake safety precautions is to be sure that the building in which you are living, meets the earthquake construction requirements.
• Arrange all the cupboards of your house in such an order that the heavy items are stored in the lower racks. Thus you can ensure that those heavy items will not be thrown off like projectiles at the time of an earthquake.
• Secure the cupboard doors with latches, so that they do not open during an earthquake and prevent things kept inside them from falling off.
• Objects in your house like refrigerator, bookcases, air conditioners should be fastened to the wall properly, so that they can withstand maximum tremors.
• Keep hanging objects like lamps, mirrors, picture frames, hanging plants away from beds. Also make sure they are anchored properly, to prevent their fall.
• Fire may erupt inside the house after an earthquake. Hence, the fire extinguishers on each floor of the building should be strategically located, so that one can easily access them as and when they are required.
• Always keep an earthquake survival kit ready with you.
• At least one member of the family should have good knowledge of first aid measures which will help if someone gets a bad injury. This is important because the medical emergency services often gets overloaded after this kind of natural disaster. Even many of the medical equipment may not be in working condition after the incident.
• One of the most vital aspect is earthquake safety for kids. For this, you have to train them about the do’s and don’ts during an earthquake. Talk to them about how it feels when earthquake happens so that they can recognize it early. Teach them how they can seek protection by going under a desk or a table. Lets take a look at the earthquake activity in Pakistan!

Pakistan: A home to Earthquake!

Earthquake prone areas in Pakistan

Earthquake activity in Pakistan is mainly concentrated in the north and western sections of the country, along the boundary of the Indian plate and the Iranian and Afghan micro-plates. The Chaman Fault runs along Pakistan’s western frontier with Afghanistan from Kalat, in the northern Makran range, past Quetta and then on to Kabul, Afghanistan. A fault also runs along the Makran coast and is believed to be of the same nature as the West Coast fault along the coast of Maharashtra, India. An active subduction zone exists off the Makran coast.

This zone forms the boundary between the Arabian and the Iranian micro-plate, where the former subducts or dives beneath the latter. Thrust zones run along the Kirthar, Sulaiman and Salt ranges. There are four faults in and around Karachi and other parts of deltaic Indus, and Makran coast. The first is the Allah Bund fault that passes through Shahbundar, Jah, Pakistan Steel Mills, and runs through eastern parts of the city and ends near Cape Monz. This fault, in fact, has caused extensive damage in the past many centuries in the deltaic areas. The destruction of Bhanbhor in the 13th century and damage to Shahbundar in 1896 were caused by this fault. The other one emanates from the Rann of Kutchh. The third one is the Pubb fault which ends into Arabian sea near Makran coast and the last one is located in the lower Dadu district near Surajani and falls in the vicinity of Karachi. Tsunamis or tidal waves have also affected the coast of Pakistan. The worst case was in 1945 when an earthquake of magnitude 8 struck the Makran coast, waves as high as 12 meters were reported.

Historic Earthquakes in Pakistan

From the year 893 A.D till 1929, a total of 11 earthquakes have rocked the modern-day Pakistan. Following is a chart that shows the list of historic earthquakes in Pakistan since 893;

Almost all earthquake have occurred in Balochistan province but due to less population in the province and lack of construction, Balochistan has remained fairly safe from these earthquakes, not to mention that Balochistan is the most earthquake-prone region in the country. Apart from the Balochistan quakes, a total of 3 earthquakes have jolted the Sindh province with 2 reported from Sindh coastal area while the another hit Gujarat-Sindh border. It is also worth mentioning that none of these earthquakes have been documented except for the 1819 earthquake in Sindh-Gujarat border.

Allahbund Earthquake 1819

It occurred on June 16, 1819, an eye-witness account by the British officers, informing that 7,000 buildings were demolished, 1,150 person were buried alive in the ruins. A shallow stream about 7,000 feet (2133 metres) wide was formed and Rann which was previously disconnected with sea was filled with sea water spreading to large area.  Sindri fort 15 feet high above water   level,  and  a Talpur border check-post (now in India),  was submerged nearly totally and custom officers on the fort wall were rescued by a British ship. Total displacement of Allah Bund was 30 feet uplift and 10 feet depression due to vertical slipping at the fault plains. The earthquake is reported to have disbursed normal drainage pattern of Rann of Kutch and river Indus and the Indus river branches to the sea changed their course as can be seen from coastal maps of 1817 and 1830 AD.

Due to 1819 earthquake Shah Bunder port was abandoned and two new creeks namely Kukaiwari and Kadewari came in to existence between 1819 and 1837. Overall the earthquake killed some 3,200 people.

Modern day Earthquakes in Pakistan

From the year 1931 till 2011, Pakistan has seen many major earthquake including a tsunami in 1945, two years before independence.  Following is a chart that shows the list of historic earthquakes in Pakistan since 1931 till 2011;

Coastal area of Sindh is in active seismic zone. There is geological fault from Ahmedabad and Bhuj  and Ormara along Makran coast and another geological fault from  Ormara  to Gulistan about 80  kms west of Quetta to Jalalabad and then turning eastwards  under Himalayan foot hills through Kohistan towards Haryana in India and beyond, it is called Karakoram fault.  Another one is located Abbottabad, Mansehra, Kohistan and Swat district. The 2005 earthquake was more intensive than 1974 earthquake, which had created havoc in Pattan, Duba, Palas and other villages.

The first causes earthquakes along the northern Gujarat, Kutch, Rann of Kutch and affects Sindh coast and Karachi. In 1945 earthquake with epicentre in Makran between Pasni and Gawadar, Karachi also got shocks and some islands along Baluchistan coast disappeared and new ones emerged.  The 2003 earthquake destroyed many houses in Ahmedabad, destroyed almost the whole town of Bhuj and affected coastal area of Sindh including damage to some buildings in Nagar Parker, Islamkot, Mithi, Diplo and Badin  and bridges on roads south of Badin.

1935 Balochistan Earthquake

Camps can be seen during the post-1935 earthquake

At 3:02 am PST at Quetta, a powerful earthquake rocked the city and surrounding areas. The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.7 and anywhere between 30,000 and 60,000 people died from the impact. This ranks as one of the deadliest earthquakes that hit South Asia. The natural disaster ranks as the 23rd most deadly earthquake worldwide to date. In the aftermath of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, the experts cited the earthquake as being amongst the four deadliest earthquakes the South Asian region has seen; the others being the Kashmir earthquake in 2005, Pasni earthquake in 1945 and Kangra earthquake in 1905.

This earthquake is the worst natural disaster in Pre-Pakistan era.

1945 “Would-be-Pakistan” tsunami

1945 tsunami left a widespread destruction

On 28 November 1945 at 1:56 am (local time), a massive earthquake, off Pakistan’s Makran Coast generated a destructive tsunami in the Northern Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Its epicenter was at 24.5 N 63.0 E., in the northern Arabian Sea, about 100 km south of Karachi and about 87 km SSW of Churi (Balochistan), Pakistan. The earthquake was of 8.1 magnitude, major quake. A total of 4,000 people were killed.

1974 Hunza Earthquake

Hunza earthquake in 1974

This Earthquake was a magnitude of 6.2 and hit Hunza, Hazara and Swat districts of northern Pakistan on December 28, 1974. The quake had a shallow focal depth and was followed by numerous aftershocks. An official estimate of the number killed was 5,300 with approximately 17,000 injured. A total of 97,000 were reported affected by the tremor. Most of the destruction was centred around the village of Pattan, located about 100 miles north of the capital city of Islamabad. The village was almost completely destroyed. Landslides and rock falls contributed to the damage.

2005 Kashmir Earthquake

View of Islamabad after the 2005 earthquake

A 7.6-Richter scale quake struck the Kashmir region on the India-Pakistan border and parts of northwestern Pakistan on 8 October 2005. According to official figures, at least 73,000 people were killed and more than 3.3 million made homeless. Work even continues today to rebuild the damaged infrastructure.

This earthquake has been blamed for the economic down fall of Pakistan as in 2005 Pakistan’s economy was rising. The country was being considered to be placed on the rising economies of Asian, the credit goes to the Musharraf-led government but the earthquake hit the back bone of Pakistan and eventually and sadly the next year, Pakistan was placed on the failed states of the world at number 9.

2011 Pakistan Earthquake

An earthquake of magnitude of 7.2 rocked south-western Pakistan. The United States Geological Survey reported the earthquake took place on January 19 at 01:23 am PST. The depth of the earthquake was reported to be 84 kilometres. US seismologist, Don Blakeman, said the earthquake depth was revised to be deeper than originally thought – potentially limiting the effects.

Overall the earthquake was felt in India, Iran, Bahrain, Afghanistan, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirites. 2 women died due to this earthquake in Pakistan due to heart attack.

From the shores of Arabian sea to the great heights of K-2 : Earthquake threat persist!

Threat from Tsunami will always hanut Karachi

While Karachi lies close to a major fault line, it is situated on or close to four minor faults. The first is called the Allah Bund fault and it passes through the coastal town of Shah Bundar, the area around Pakistan Steel Mills and runs through eastern parts of the city ending near Cape Monz. Another fault lies in the Rann of Kutch near Sindh’s southeastern border with India. The third is called the Pubb fault which lies near the Mekran coast west of the city while a fourth is located in Dadu district on the northern boundary of Karachi. Some scientists say that the geographical location of Karachi is such that a natural curve is formed near the sea-shore, as a result, the possibility for a tsunami generated in Indian Ocean to hit the Karachi site is quite remote. . Karachi is sometimes regarded as safe from earthquake while sometimes it is the opposite.

Islamabad, the capital city of Pakistan sits on 5 major fault lines running through the city, all of which are capable of producing large earthquakes.

The officials said that when the 1960′s government had planned to declare Islamabad the federal capital, its seismic zoning was conducted. Geologists had warned the then government that Islamabad was prone to high intensity earthquakes because it was situated in an active earthquake zone. The officials said that it was not advisable to construct high-rise buildings in Islamabad. They said that no building structure higher than two stories should be allowed in the federal capital, as the earth crust in Islamabad could not sustain the weight of high-rise buildings. So Islamabad should be on alert for earthquakes.

What does the future holds for Pakistan?

Experts at the Geological center of Pakistan have warned that an earthquake of a magnitude of 6.5 or higher might hit Pakistan this year (2011). Although earthquakes can not be predicted but we Pakistanis must take every step to ensure that 2005 earthquake is not repeated because if that happens again then the sticks that are holding Pakistan will collapse and eventually it will be the collapse of Pakistan. All major cities of Pakistan are located on the fault line, which also crosses the centre of Margalla Hills.

No matter what any one says we Pakistanis should be ready for a big earthquake in future. At least that is what history tells us! 

Background

Precipitation (left) - Temperature (right): till August 4

Rains have been reported from almost all over the country in Pakistan since last week, while rains continue to batter some upper parts of the country. Temperature remained normal in many parts of the country while slightly above in some southern parts of the country. Overall high humidity was observed in the monsoon regions of Pakistan. Whats next? 

Temperature – high or low?

Temperatures are likely to remain in comfort zone in almost all parts of Pakistan due to monsoonal winds and moisture incursion prevailing over the region. In Karachi and coastal Sindh, the fast winds will keep the weather pleasant and temperatures are not likely to cross 35°C. In few areas of upper Sindh the temperatures could reach 45°C but overall no major heat wave is expected. In Punjab due to continuous and frequent cool western trough, the temperatures have dropped and they will remain in that place till 3 to 4 days. In Khyber province too, the temperatures are likely to remain in a comfort level. The advance of monsoon has caused temperatures to drop in Sindh and South Punjab. Following is the expected temperature forecast;

• 36 °C to 38 °C in Islamabad.
• 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi.
• 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.
• 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
• 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
• 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
• 42 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
• 41 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
• 39 °C to 43 °C in Nawabshah.

Death toll rises as rain lashes different parts of country

Due to monsoon rainfall, many people have lost their lives. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had been observing the deaths in Pakistan that occur every monsoon season, since June 25 till July 27 a total of 61 people have died across the country the deaths have occurred due to heat waves, isolated flash flooding, windstorms and heavy rainfall. On July 28,  2 people have been reported to die in Faisalabad due to the collapse of houses that was caused by a local dust storm, thus the death toll has risen to 63 till July 28.

Monsoon 2011  update

• 4th spell continues – break – 5th spell starts

• 2011: Karachi fears 2005 and 2008!

• Low forming in Bay?

India

Bay of Bengal has been more inactive since last year as no strong weather system is seen forming that would strengthen the monsoon. However as of July 28, an upper air cyclonic circulations have formed in the north-western Bay of Bengal that could deepen a bit and intensify into a low pressure area, however its track will be in focus after it transforms into a low pressure.

A tropical storm Nock-ten in the western Pacific ocean could also have an impact on the monsoon season as it continues to move westwards.

Pakistan

Satellite image of Pakistan in afternoon

All the monsoon regions of Pakistan have now received monsoon showers. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted on July 15 that monsoon arrival is likely in south-eastern and coastal Sindh including Karachi during last week of July and PWP was on the spot!

Monsoon hit south-eastern Sindh including Hyderabad on July 25 while coastal Sindh including Karachi a day later that is July 26.

Fourth monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan continues

The 4th monsoon spell continues to lash different parts of Punjab with rains starting to spread to South Punjab. The fresh western trough has enhanced the monsoon activity in Upper parts of Pakistan while the previous western trough is still present over India’s Kashmir. The Upper air cyclonic circulations have started attracting moisture to itself thus local thunderstorms may develop over South Punjab.

This 4th spell of monsoon will continue  till the end of July in Upper Pakistan including Khyber province though its intensity will decrease day be day as western trough moves into India and monsoon moisture decrease. After the 4th spell a break is expected and eventually the 5th monsoon spell may start between the first and second week of August.

Fresh monsoon spell in South Pakistan?

After witnessing the first monsoon spell in coastal and South-eastern Sindh, while third in Upper Sindh, many people living in Sindh especially Karachiites ask,”When will the second spell start?” 

The answer is that till August 5, there are no chances of any weather system coming to Sindh beyond that the weather is unclear. As for now the upper air cyclonic circulation has entered the Sindh coast and under the influence of this UAC, light drizzle could occur till July 29. The upper air cyclonic circulations would also strengthen the off shore trough over western coast of India. These circulations would dissipate in next 48 hours but the level of moisture incursion will remain low to moderate for drizzle for next few days in Karachi.

Poll of the week

Last week’s poll showed that 95% percent people wanted rains in Karachi while the remaining did not like rain at all. What will be the situation this time? Vote now so Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) could know your views;

Monsoon hits Karachi during last week of July!

Thunderclouds over Karachi during rainfall

Karachiites were waiting for some sort of relief from scorching heat since the beginning of the summer, after hearing from Islamabadis or Lahoris about rains, no doubt they used to feel that why no rain here in this crisis-hit city? after much praying, it seemed that nature has finally heard them as on July 26 heavens started to pour in Karachi. These were indeed the much awaited rains for Karachiites who had been eagerly waiting for rainfall since the beginning of the year.

The last rains Karachi had in 2011 was due to a non-monsoon system called western disturbance. On 29 January, 2011, an intense but short spell of rain lashed all parts of the city, at least 9 mm rainfall was recorded, this spell only lasted for 5 to 10 minutes and after that the sun cam shining again as Karachi shivered with cool winds. While the last monsoon rainfall was on 10 September, 2010, a strong well-marked low-pressure system approached Karachi and caused a heavy downpour of 78 mm, accompanied by strong gusting winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) that destroyed the roofs of some mud houses. So we can say that these were indeed a much awaited rainfall!

How did Karachi received this precipitation?

First monsoon shower in Karachi through the eyes of Ant.

On July 20, an upper air cyclonic circulations (UAC) formed over West Bengal that intensified into a low pressure on July 21 over the same area. On July 21 night, the low pressure system went under massive period of intensification that transformed into a depression that to over land. The depression started weakening the other day and went from West Bengal to Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh. From here it went to Madya Pradesh and slowly slowly entered Rajasthan on July 25. The moisture started to reach Sindh including Karachi from July 25, when the system weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation over North Gujarat and Rajasthan. But it was July 26 when this system moved to coastal Gujarat and thunderstorms started to develop over the North-eastern parts of Karachi at about 2:30 pm PST.

At first the thunderstorms kept facing stable air and lack of heat, not to mention that it had ample of moisture but stable air and lack of heat delayed its arrival but suddenly at about 2:51 pm PST the thunderstorms went from developing stages to mature stage process and this process was completed at about 4:45 pm PST and after 5:00 pm PST thunderstorms started lashing different localities of Karachi. The thunderstorms were not severe at all, they were poorly organized but managed to cause rainfall. The winds were from North-East at about 42 km/h, the temperature however dropped from 35°C to 27°C during the period of shower but high humidity made the weather unpleasant. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in Karachi due to this thunderstorm;

• 1 mm was recorded in Gulshan-i-Hadeed, Nazimabad, the Masroor airbase and North Karachi.
• 4.4 mm rainfall was recorded on University Road.
• 2 mm rainfall was recorded at Saddar.
• 3 mm rainfall was recorded at the PAF Faisal base.
• 7.2 mm rainfall was recorded at the Jinnah airport. (Highest of Karachi!)

Rains bring usual memory backs

Is more on the why?

Thunderstorm dissipating!

The Upper air cyclonic circulations (UAC) as of 9:32 am PST is over coastal Gujarat, it may move a slightly west wards thus bringing cloudy weather to south-eastern and coastal Sindh with a little drizzle or light showers. However thunderstorm saga appears to be over and dreams of heavy monsoonal rainfall at the moment have vanished away.

24 people dead in United States

132 million told to watch

Eastern United States on stand still

The eastern and some central parts of the United States are experiencing unbearable level of heat and humidity over the weekend, due to a large heat wave that has gripped the country for a week, mainly the eastern and central parts are affected.

More than 132 million people are under a Excessive Heat Warning or Watch or Heat Advisory. Temperatures are 32°C to 38°C  but they feel like 46°C or higher due to alarming level of high humidity

Many records have also been broken in the Record country. The heat wave shifted slightly further east on Friday and it is gradually turning much cooler in some north central states and the prairie provinces. It was a different story in the U.S. Midwest where Chicago’s O’Hare Airport reported 6.91 inches of rain overnight leading to flooded roads. Reason for such a high temperatures? A shroud of high pressure has taken a foot-hold over the U.S. from the Plains to the Northeast, and with it has brought temperatures well into the 40s °C   for half of the country. This situation is nothing new to Pakistan we experience this condition every year!

Waiting game is over for Karachi!

Heat wave takes 4 lives in Sindh – death toll rises to 40

Background

This week had been a little quiet in terms of  monsoon showers as no weather system has approached any part of the country, most weather system are dieing before entering Pakistan except for monsoon moisture which has been interacting with western troughs to enhance monsoon activity. Temperatures had increased in the country as forecasted by PWP. High humidity has also rised. Overall these are some things that have been observed during this week. Whats ahead?

Temperature – outlook

Temperature: July 21 till July 28

Overall the temperatures will be high in almost all parts of the country except Karachi and coastal Sindh due to fast winds. In parts of Upper Sindh and southern Punjab temperatures will hover around 45°C till next 2 to 3 days, then a decrease is expected. In Punjab and Khyber too, temperatures will decrease in next 2 to 3 days. Following is the expected temperature forecast (Forecast valid till 3 days), after that a decrease is very likely;

• 43 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
• 39 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
• 43 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
• 38 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
• 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi. (Not likely to change)
• 42 °C to 45 °C in Lahore.
• 38 °C to 40 °C in Islamabad.
• 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
• 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
• 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.

People of upper Sindh and southern Punjab should take precautions till 2 to 3 days and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities, as on July 20, at least 4 people were killed in Jamshoro, Sindh due to intense heat waves. The death toll has now reached 40 in Pakistan, all these deaths were weather-related from heat wave to rainstorms to floods since June 25.

Monsoon update 2011

Much awaited rains are here!!

Low pressure over Madya Pradesh

Pakistan to be covered with monsoon!

India

The soul of monsoon is unusually very quiet that is Bay of Bengal. The Bay usually produces low pressures or depressions that enhance monsoon activity but so far it is failed to do so. While the Arabian sea is doing all it could to keep monsoon alive, strong cross-equatorial flows over Arabian sea that along with trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, is bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to this part of India. But others are not so lucky.

Pakistan

Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and upper Sindh except for south-eastern and coastal Sindh, which are desperately waiting and are thirsty for first drop of rain. But as they that Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet, maybe that is true!

So Karachiites, it seems as if your waiting game is finally over as monsoon rainfall is expected.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Note: This is the forecast of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.

PWP's weather forecast for July 24 night till July 25 night

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi on July 15 but PWP later revised their forecast and said;

“High chances of monsoon hitting Karachi late this month.”

Now PWP upgrades that forecast to “very high”, at least 48 hours have passed but that forecast has not changed and we are confident that monsoon will cover while monsoon regions of Pakistan on July 24 mid-day. On July 23, PWP upgraded its monsoon forecast for Karachi from “very high” to “extremely high”, we are confident that monsoon will hit south-eastern Sindh and Karachi in 36 to 48 hours.

Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during late this month that is from July 23 night. The monsoon belt of Pakistan include Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber, north-eastern Balochistan, Kashmir and Sindh including Karachi other regions that is rest of Balochistan, FATA, rest of Khyber and Giglit are non-monsoon regions.

Low pressure can be seen as of July 21

As of 5:30 pm PST July 21, various models are indicating that the upper air cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal that  would cross West Bengal province and gain intensity into a low pressure area (happened as of July 21). The system would approach Madya Pradesh where it may lose intensity and become a UAC from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it will lose its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to upper parts of Pakistan with strong currents from Arabian sea. The UAC will approach Sindh by July 24/25 by that time the system will be highly sheared and it will tear into different parts of thunderstorms and eventually dissipating over the Arabian sea. Few of its thunderstorms will also reach as far as Oman.

As of 6:00 pm PST July 23, the western trough, Arabian sea’s moisture and low’s moisture is likely to interact over Upper Pakistan. The low rapidly intensified into a depression on July 22 over Jharkhand and moved from Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh to Madya Pradesh (The track as forecasted by PWP on July 21). On July 23, the depression weakened into a well-marked low over North Madya Pradesh. According to latest forecast, the system has moved towards western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. The system will weaken rapidly before coming to Sindh (maybe a UAC or remnant low, as forecasted earlier by PWP), the system will reach Sindh by between July 24 and July 25, it will be in dissipating stages at that time. Few of its moisture could reach Oman as well. Following is the forecast in detail for Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh;

Islamabad

The 4th spell of monsoon will begin from July 23 night and continue till 3 to 4 days, till July 27 mid-day. Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from July 23 night and will continue till July 27 mid-day, and decrease thereafter . Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will start from July 24 night and continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter.  Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with moderate falls likely.

Sindh

Rain forecast: July 21 till July 28

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore and other adjoining  cities. The 3rd spell will begin from July 24 mid-day an continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with few isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here too.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here as well.

Overall monsoon will cover all the monsoon regions of Pakistan and it is very likely that monsoon regions of Pakistan will be covered completely by monsoon on July 24 mid-day.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know how confident are it’s readers from Karachi, it would be better if Karachiites also comment about what they have voted for us to see the majority and different moods of Karachi;

Horn of Africa: drought-hit areas

What is Famine?

Famine implies having less than 2,100 kilocalories of food per day, acute malnutrition in more than 30 percent of the children and two deaths per 10,000 people every day, according to the Integrated Phase Classification, a food security measure used by the UN and other relief agencies.

“Famine hit region!”

The United Nations (U.N) has declared Somalia a “famine-hit region”, due to a severe drought affecting more than 10 million people in the Horn of Africa. Some of these areas in southern Somalia are controlled by Al-Qaeda inspired Shebab insurgents.

In Somalia, a total of 3.7 million people are suffering from drought. Consecutive droughts have affected the country in the last few years, while the ongoing conflict has made it extremely difficult for agencies to operate and access communities in the south of the country. Officials warned that unless urgent action was taken the areas afflicted by famine would grow. The UN said the humanitarian situation in southern Bakool and Lower Shabelle had deteriorated rapidly.

Meanwhile, the UN and US have said aid agencies need further safety guarantees from armed groups in Somalia to allow staff to reach those in need. Al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated group which controls large swathes of south and central Somalia, had imposed a ban on foreign aid agencies in its territories in 2009, but has recently allowed limited access. An estimated 10 million people have been affected in east Africa by the worst drought in more than half a century. Tens of thousands of desperate Somalis have been trying to flee their country to neighbouring Kenya or Ethiopia. More than 20 million people are in urgent need of food aid in eastern Africa, with charities warning of a full-blown humanitarian disaster.

It is the first time that the country has seen famine in 19 years. Countries affected across the region include parts of Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Djibouti, while the United States on Tuesday also urged secretive Eritrea to reveal how severely it has been hit by the drought. Few months back, La-Nina had been blamed for this drought.

Pakistan-India: Always bitter rivals

Pakistan and India, these are the two nations in the world that do not have an easy relationship. The Pak-Indo relations were never friendly in their 64 year life. The two nations were divided in 1947 from greater India before that, they were ruled by the Britishers. Since the independence the two countries have blamed each other for any unrest in the country. For a neutral observer, both the countries are equally blamed for high tension between them. But in June 2007, the Indian government’s India Meteorological Department (IMD) did a wicked and shocking thing that led many international weather experts and some newspaper to criticize the IMD. What was it? It was Cyclone Yemyin!

Yemyin – Yemen confusion!

Waves of Yemyin batter the Pakistani coast

After 4 years of cyclone Yemyin, most Pakistanis do not know much about this storm. Most shocking and amazing thing is that a private Pakistani T.V channel was showing the destruction left by Yemyin but in the end they made a horrible mistake, they thought that cyclone “Yemyin” came from Yemen, African country, that is why this storm is called “Yemyin”. If this storm did came from Yemen then I think that all the laws of physics are wrong as cyclones do not move from South to North for a very long time. Simiarily the PMD also made a mistake regarding Yemyin. During the time of cyclone Phet, the PMD issued a list of cyclones that formed in 2007 and affected the Pakistani coast. But instead of writing cyclone Yemyin that wrote Yemen cyclone, Yemen cyclone formed in 2008 that too in October, eventually they  corrected it in early 2011. It appears that many people in Pakistan were confused with these two cyclones.

Both are different storms, one has been named Yemyin in 2007 while the other was a formed near a country in 2008 called Yemen. However that 2008 storm did not achieve cyclonic strength. It was cyclone Yemyin in 2007 that had an interesting story.

Does IMD monitors the cyclones in this part of the world?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center responsible for forecasting tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. It is the responsibility of the IMD to monitor any cyclone that forms in the North Indian ocean and give timely warning and updates regarding any cyclone. When a tropical depression in the North Indian ocean touches 40 mph winds according to South Asian tropical scale then it is given a name, which is contributed by India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Srilanka, Maldives, Burma, Oman and Thailand. This trend started in the North Indian Ocean in 2004 on the request of World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Following is the list of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean;

What did the IMD do regarding Yemyin?

Cyclone Yemyin near peak intensity

A deep tropical depression from the Bay of Bengal crossed into the Arabian sea on June 24 and was being monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a center that is led by the United States. The JTWC and the IMD both started resuming warning for this system but the JTWC upgraded the system to a strong tropical storm status with winds up to 60 mph gusting to 80 mph according to SSHS, while the IMD kept the system at deep depression status with winds up to 35 mph. The JTWC gave the name “nameless” to the cyclone keeping international steps in mind, while the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forcefully named it “Yemyin“, their advisory told this on June 25 at about 8:00 pm PST;

” UPDATE: Tropical Cyclone Named & Numbered

This evening Tropical cyclone formed in Arabian Sea as per international practice has been named and numbered as follows 

1. Number: 03B

2. Name: YEMYIN “

Thus Cyclone Yemyin came to existence and finally got a name that it desperately needed since many days. So What, if the IMD did not name the cyclone? Naming a storm is very important, the cyclones that are named will attract much attention in the global media than a nameless one. People easily forget storms if they are named like 4B in 1998 or 4B in 2010, thus the tradition of naming the cyclones were introduced by western powers. The plan of IMD? well, Yemyin was very destructive in Pakistan and by not naming the storm was not making any story in any part of the world like previous disasters did. Though thanks to the JTWC, PMD, international weather experts and bloggers, Yemyin made it to the international press and finally the world started monitoring the situation in Pakistan.

Though even in the Indian media, Cyclone 03B was being referred to as Yemyin. Media outlets like Times of India and Hindustan times used the word “Yemyin” to describe the cyclone, not knowing that their met department still considers it as a mere depression. India might not have felt good to provide storm warnings for Pakistan but it is their job to do so and India should not let international politics interfere with any humanitarian work.

Hours before landfall – IMD’s cyclone website is offline!!

IMD issues its update on June 25

Cyclone Yemyin made landfall on June 26 along the Makran coast in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, according to famous weather bloggers of Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters and Margie Kieper, both were shocked and disgusted by the attitude of the IMD. These weather experts were following and monitoring this storm from time to time. Dr. Jeff has this to say;

Cyclone 03B was at least a strong tropical storm when it hit Pakistan, and was probably a Category 1 hurricane….Yet IMD never even gave the storm a name, and merely classified it as a a “deep depression,” with winds less than tropical storm force (39 mph). At 00 GMT June 26, two hours before landfall, the position of Cyclone 03B given by IMD was probably in error by at least 60 miles. One hour later, at 01 GMT, with landfall just one hour away, the IMD shipping advisory said that landfall was still 12 hours away. The IMD website, with the warnings, was offline and not available for approximately twelve hours beginning with the landfall period. It’s important not to judge IMD before all the facts are known, but I can’t fathom any excuse that can account for what appears, at best, to be criminal incompetence.

While Margie Kieper, hurricane hunter and blogger had this to say;

“Can you imagine this happening in the U.S? A hurricane hitting land and leaving thousands homeless, not warned on, and the warning agency website (IMD) down throughout the critical landfall period? This truly is unimaginable – yet this is what occurred yesterday … complicating this event is a history of hostility between India and Pakistan.”

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) showed a careless attitude towards Pakistan in 2007, even though the two countries had good relations in 2007. However, this is unacceptable that IMD’s cyclone warning website was offline throughout the critical period. Was there a load-shedding going in the future super power capital New Delhi?, they forecasted that landfall of this “depression” was still 12 hours away while the weak “category-1 hurricane Yemyin” was one hour from making a landfall and also the IMD showed a wrong track of this storm in 2007. If the IMD can not provide warning to its neighbours than it should resign from the post of Regional head as that is their job to do so.

Aftermath: Name 03B or 04B as Yemyin – IMD under pressure!

Yemyin destroys a high in Pakistan

In late June 2007, a deep depression 04B formed on June 28 and was being forecasted to become a cyclone, it was a deep depression on IMD scale and a weak tropical storm on SSHS scale. There was lot of tension if that 04B becomes a tropical storm on IMD scale, so what will happen to 03B? eventually 04B did not have time to become a cyclone but its remnants brought once again heavy rainfall to coastal Pakistan. If the 04B would have been named “Yemyin” then there would have been a great deal of problems in the media.

IMD acknowledges 03B as Yemyin in August!

After two months of neglecting 03B, the IMD upgraded the deep depression to cyclone Yemyin, the next name on the list. This was finalized when Super Cyclone “Sidr” was named in the Bay of Bengal. Though the IMD only upgraded it to a weak tropical storm status with winds up to only 40 mph. This is a clear example that India will do what ever to tease Pakistan not just in the world of politics but also India has started to do this in the world of nature. It is not wrong if we say that cyclone Yemyin was the most political storm in this region after cyclone Bhola in 1970.

India’s stance

PMD issues updates regarding Yemyin

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) did contacted an Indian meteorologist in 2010 regarding cyclone Yemyin, Mr.Tatiraju had this to say;

“I think that there was a mistake in identifying the storm’s intensity. RSMC New Delhi only names systems that have attained cyclone intensity.

And also that the India-Pakistan issue is very sensitive issue. Until given a proper reason, neither of the govts. should be blamed.”

Why should Pakistan be blamed for this error?, We gave a timely warning for our citizens. However this is true that there is a difference in IMD’s tropical scale and SSHS. But it was clear that depression 03B had gained tropical strength and had reached a severe cyclonic strength on the IMD scale while a weak category-1 hurricane level on SSHS.

Was it a really a strong tropical storm or category-1 hurricane

Infra red image of cyclone Yemyin - Note the eye of the storm

Cyclone Yemyin was at least a strong tropical storm or a weak category-1 hurricane. Just 12 hours before landfall, the cyclone was going trough intensification period and it started rotating like a normal strong tropical storm does. The cyclone developed spiral and outer bands, indicating intensification. For a brief period Yemyin had an eye visible through different types of satellite image with a well-defined center after landfall. The eye was cloud-filled but it was surrounded by large rotating thunderstorms. These are some of the features that clearly shows that Cyclone Yemyin was a weak category-1 hurricane not a depression as described by the IMD. There was enough evidence that the tropical storm reached hurricane strength

Weather Warfare between India and Pakistan

This is not the first time India has done this to Pakistan as a matter of fact in 1970, India did not pass information about  Cyclone Bhola that formed in the Bay of Bengal and the storm was heading towards East Pakistan. India remained silent and in a clever move it quietly ordered its sailors to return back to land before this monster storm approaches them, India did every thing it could so that this information is not leaked to Pakistan.

In 2005, a deep depression 05B formed in the Bay of Bengal on October 26, it was a weak tropical storm on SSHS scale. Pakistan upgraded the storm to a cyclonic storm status on the IMD scale but the IMD rejected that and eventually named another cyclone as “Baaz” on November 28. It seems as if India does not like any neighbouring country to cooperate with them in any field but as India wishes to become a super power it must cooperate with its neighbours.

Who is responsible?

Billboards collapses in Karachi during the storm

At least 250,000 people affected, while 730 dead with 200 alone in Karachi due to cyclone Yemyin. Who should be held accountable for these deaths? When will human beings realize that a common man does not care about the world of politics, they just want food for their families and nothing else. But it appears as if India wants politics in every part of life, their cyclone warning website was offline and they were forecasting false information when Pakistani were suffering nature’s wrath. India did this in 1970 and repeated this inhuman act in 2007, though relations were tough in 1970 but they were good in 2007. So what happened then?

India must realize that there is an enormous gap between politics and humanity, If India does not realize this and continues to do, then its dreams of becoming a super power will dissipate just like a hurricane dissipates over a land!

• “Ma-on” on a tropical storm

• Storm losing intensity now!

• Second strongest typhoon of Western Pacific Ocean 2011

Typhoon Ma-on in the Pacific Ocean

Typhoon Ma-on is the 14th storm, 7th tropical storm and the second typhoon of the western Pacific Ocean. It is the second most strongest typhoon of the current tropical season of western Pacific after Super typhoon “Songda”. On July 17, the typhoon entered the Philippines territory that is why the PAGASA has named it “Ineng”. The western Pacific Ocean season begins from April 11 till December 31. Some 30 storms form in this basin, which is one of the busiest tropical basins in the world.

Updates of Typhoon Ma-on

Following are the update of typhoon Ma-on;

Update issued on July 20 at 9:00 pm JST - LAST UPDATE

Ma-on has made partial landfall over Japan and it is now moving back to open sea waters of Pacific, it is expected to move in east direction and then again in a NE direction. It will affect no land now, it will keep on losing strength and eventually transform into a remnant extra tropical storm.

Update issued on July 19 at 9:50 pm JST

Typhoon Ma-on weakens to tropical storm Ma-on now. Weakening has occurred due to land-interaction, conditions are favourable for storm to maintain its tropical storm status till 24 hours. However the threat seems to be hitting over for Japan but still some heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy rainfall likely with high winds and severe waves. The storm will now start moving in North-east direction and head back to open sea. The storm will start to gradually weaken from tomorrow morning.

Update issued on July 18 at 12:20 am JST

Typhoon Ma-on continues to weaken and now is a category-1 hurricane with winds upto 85 mph. The storm is about 550 nm south-west of Tokyo, the track of the storm has not changed. The system is moving at 14 knots in North direction. Threat of extremely heavy rainfall persist along with high winds and high waves.

Update issued on July 18 at 3:15 pm JST

Despite forecast of typhoon Ma-on gaining strength, it appears that the storm is weakening. Typhoon Ma-on has not completed an eye wall replacement yet, which it should have done yesterday. The typhoon has been moving in a North direction since last few hours at 6 knots. It could still gain strength and become a category-3 hurricane again but its time is running out as it approaches the land. However it will be a minimal typhoon when it will reach Japan.

Update issued on July 17 at 9:00 pm JST

Typhoon Ma-on is going through eye-wall replacement as of now, it has slightly weakened but will re-intensify again and could become a category-4 hurricane as well. The typhoon is moving at 10 knots in North-west direction since few hours. Typhoon may intensify in 24 to 36 hours.

Update issued on July 17 at 6:48 pm JST

The typhoon is expected to continue on a west to north-west direction over the next 24 to 48 hours, then start turning more north-west to north, and eventually start moving in a north-east direction. Some intensification will occur during this time and Ma-on could become a super typhoon.

How did it form?

On July 9, an area of thunderstorm were found near the Wake Island, which became a tropical depression on July 11 and on July 12 it became a tropical storm “Ma-on”. On July 16, Typhoon Ma-on absorbed another tropical storm “Tokage” due to Fujiwhara effect and since then it is gaining strength as the condition are favourable for further intensification.

The typhoon at the moment is going to Philippines but it does not threaten any part of Philippines . However PAGASA issued a gale warning to fishermen and small sea craft in Central and Southern Luzon. It said strong to gale-force winds are expected to affect the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central and of Southern Luzon. But Ma-on will encounter a trough of low pressure that will attract the storm in a North to North-east direction, bring it very close to Japan. As the storm is moved a little towards the Philippines territory, it is also expected to enhance the South-West monsoon activity.

Japan the likely target

Still in the midst of its long recovery from the earthquakes and tsunami of early March, Japan must now keep a watchful eye on typhoon Ma-on, rapidly intensifying in the western Pacific. The typhoon is very likely to bring sheets of rainfall to southern Japan as it passes extremely close to the tsunami-hit country. Rainfall might be between 10 inches to 20 inches.

A wave that would submerge Pakistan!

Pakistan is a country of 187,343,000 (2011 est.) people. It has a lot of problems both internally and externally, from economic sector to defense sector, similarly Pakistan has also seen many worst natural disasters in its 64 year life. From the waters of the Arabian sea to the great heights of the Karakoram, all of the places between them have seen worst disasters.

Before the independence of Pakistan

Pakistan got independence from the British on August 14, 1947. The pre-1947 era also saw some disasters that wrecked havoc in western India (present-day Pakistan). Many cyclones were reported, but there estimated damage is unconfirmed. Following are those natural disasters, which have confirmed data regarding the number of deaths and damage;

1935 Balochistan Earthquake

Camps can be seen during the post-1935 earthquake

At 3:02 am PST at Quetta, a powerful earthquake rocked the city and surrounding areas. The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.7 and anywhere between 30,000 and 60,000 people died from the impact. This ranks as one of the deadliest earthquakes that hit South Asia. The natural disaster ranks as the 23rd most deadly earthquake worldwide to date. In the aftermath of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, the experts cited the earthquake as being amongst the four deadliest earthquakes the South Asian region has seen; the others being the Kashmir earthquake in 2005, Pasni earthquake in 1945 and Kangra earthquake in 1905.

This earthquake is the worst natural disaster in Pre-Pakistan era.

1945 “Would-be-Pakistan” tsunami

1945 tsunami left a widespread destruction

On 28 November 1945 at 1:56 am (local time), a massive earthquake, off Pakistan’s Makran Coast generated a destructive tsunami in the Northern Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Its epicenter was at 24.5 N 63.0 E., in the northern Arabian Sea, about 100 km south of Karachi and about 87 km SSW of Churi (Balochistan), Pakistan. The earthquake was of 8.1 magnitude, major quake. A total of 4,000 people were killed.

Disasters in 20th century – After the independence

During the 20th century, Pakistan saw a great number of natural calamities. The disasters severely hit the back bone of the economy of Pakistan. During the year 1970,a major category-3  Cyclone Bhola devastated East Pakistan that left some 500,000 people dead. Bhola is the deadliest cyclone in the history of mankind. In 20th century, a number of cyclones also devastated the western Pakistan, along with earthquakes. Following is the list of natural disasters in Pakistan during the 20th century;

Worst cyclones in 20th century

Cyclones that effect Pakistan lose much of their intensity by the time they reach country’s coastline. Following are the deadliest cyclones in Pakistan’s history, these cyclones caused fatalities greater than 100.

1965 Karachi cyclone

Not much is known about this cyclone but it is the deadliest tropical storm in the history of Pakistan as it caused 10,000 casualties in Karachi on 15 December.

Cyclone 2A 1999

Cyclone make landfall near Karachi - Clear eye indicates a powerful hurricane

This cyclone is the strongest and most intense cyclone in the history of Pakistan. A category 3 hurricane, it killed 6200 people in the country and made landfall in Shah Bandar at peak intensity on 20 May near Karachi city in Sindh province.

1993 Pak-Indo cyclone

A category 1 hurricane, it weakened over the sea near Sindh-Gujarat border due to high wind shear. However it caused massive rainfall and flooding in Karachi but Thatta and Badin districts were the worst affected where the cyclone killed 609 people and displaced some 200,000 others.

1964 Indus valley cyclone

It made landfall in Tharparkar and Hyderabad district in Sindh province in Pakistan on 12 June. However it caused a great loss of life and property in the province. It killed 450 people and left some 400,000 people homeless.

Worst flooding of 20th in Pakistan

Pakistan along with other nations of Indian-Sub continent have seen a lot of flooding especially during the monsoon season,Pakistan has seen 9 major flooding since 1947. Following is the worst flooding during the 20th century;

1950 “Kala Salab” floods 

Similar scenes were witnessed in 1950

Monsoon rain in 1950 killed an estimated 2,900 people across the country. Punjab Province, including the city of Lahore, was among the worst hit when the River Ravi flooded. Over 100,000 homes were destroyed, leaving around 900,000 people homeless. These floods were often called the Kala salab (Black flood).

1992 floods

It was considered the worst flooding in Pakistan since 1950, the monsoon rainfall caused massive floods that killed 1,000+ people and made some 13,000+ people homeless.

Worst Earthquake of 20th in Pakistan

During the 20th century, only minor earthquake occurred in Pakistan expect for one, which is as follows;

1974 Hunza Earthquake

Hunza earthquake in 1974

This Earthquake was a magnitude of 6.2 and hit Hunza, Hazara and Swat districts of northern Pakistan on December 28, 1974. The quake had a shallow focal depth and was followed by numerous aftershocks. An official estimate of the number killed was 5,300 with approximately 17,000 injured. A total of 97,000 were reported affected by the tremor. Most of the destruction was centred around the village of Pattan, located about 100 miles north of the capital city of Islamabad. The village was almost completely destroyed. Landslides and rock falls contributed to the damage.

Post-Independence: Worst Natural Disasters in the 21st century

Up till now that is 2011, some of major disasters have occurred in Pakistan from 2005 Earthquake to 2010 floods. Following is the worst natural disasters in Pakistan from 2000 till 2011;

Worst drought of 21st in Pakistan

Drought is an on and off phenomena in Pakistan, drought mostly affect the southern parts of Pakistan when there is no precipitation in the country. Following is the worst drought in Pakistan;

Drought of 1998-2002

Drought in Balochistan

Though this drought started from 1998 but gained intensity in 2000 till early 2002. The drought of 1998-2002 is considered worst in 50 years in Pakistan. The drought started in 1997 as El-Nino developed, but the drought gained intensity in 1998 and reached its peak in 2000 till 2001 and thus gradually weakened in 2002. The extreme drought also affected much of India and Afghanistan. The World Bank warned that the drought would inevitably hit economic growth of Pakistan. Thus it denoted several hundred-million dollars to help Pakistan through its worsening drought.

Worst earthquakes in Pakistan

Many earthquakes occurred in Pakistan during the 21st century, but the worst was the Kashmir earthquake;

2005 Kashmir Earthquake

View of Islamabad after the 2005 earthquake

A 7.6-Richter scale quake struck the Kashmir region on the India-Pakistan border and parts of northwestern Pakistan on 8 October 2005. According to official figures, at least 73,000 people were killed and more than 3.3 million made homeless. Work even continues today to rebuild damaged infrastructure.

Worst cyclones of 21st in Pakistan 

Less than four cyclones came close to Pakistan coast with cyclonic strength, following is the worst cyclone in Pakistan in 21st century;

Cyclone Yemyin

It killed 200 people alone in Karachi city on 23 June due to heavy rainfall and intense windstorms of 70 mph. It made landfall near the towns of Ormara and Pasni in the Balochistan province on 26 June where it killed 300 people. Overall it killed 730 people and affected the lives of 2 million people in Pakistan making it the third deadliest cyclone in the history of the country.

Worst flooding of 21st in Pakistan

Isolated floods occurred in Pakistan but in 2010 almost 20% land of Pakistan was sub-merged due to the worst flooding since 1950;

2010 Pakistan floods

2,000 people lost their lives in these floods in Pakistan and over 20 million affected. Pakistan had sought international help to cope with the catastrophe. Despite mass evacuations, there were fears the death toll will rise as flooding reached the southern province of Sindh and the risk of water-borne disease outbreaks increased in many areas. Still many people are living in camps after one year has passed by.

So many disasters!

The number of natural disasters have considerably increased in the 21st century in Pakistan as compared to 20th century, there have been more disasters in first 10 years of 21st century. The reason? the increase in population is the main problem that has led to increasing number of disasters. Whether a natural hazard such as a storm or a heat wave becomes a natural disaster depends not only on the intensity of the event, but also on the degree of physical and human devastation. When viewing disasters in relation to populations, analysts look at several factors, particularly the types of areas hit and the demographic groups affected. Better planning reduces the chances of severe disasters!

Background for upcoming weather

Upper and Northern parts of Pakistan are experiencing the third spell of current monsoon season which will continue till July 17 night. A western trough, which is interacting with monsoon moisture will enhance the activity over these areas. Humidity will remain high in all monsoon areas of Pakistan. Non-Monsoon regions that is Balochistan, FATA and western Khyber will remain dry. Some weak heat wave may occur in southern parts of Pakistan during the period.

Heat wave coming: Temperatures outlook

Sparrow drinking water

Temperatures have not changed and are not expected to change as compared to last update, except few southern parts that is Sindh, lower Balochistan and southern Punjab where it will increase. Following is the expected temperature in Sindh;

• 45 °C to 47 °C in Sukkur.
• 44 °C to 47 °C also in Larkana.
• 42 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
• 39 °C to 43 °C in Hyderabad.
• 32 °C to 34 °C in Karachi. (Not changed since last update)

1. Older people, especially those over 75 years old.
2. People suffering from mental ill-health, those with dementia, and those who rely on help from other people to manage day-to-day activities.
3. People who are bed-bound or have mobility problems.
4. People taking certain types of medication.
5. People with a serious chronic condition, particularly breathing or heart problems.
6. People who already have a high temperature from an infection.
7. People who use alcohol or illicit drugs.
8. Babies and young children, especially under four years old.
9. People who are physically active such as manual workers, or sportsmen and women.

Weather-related incident!

36 people have died since June 25 in Pakistan till July 15 due to weather related incidents. The deaths occurred due to heat waves, monsoon rainfall and river floodings. The death toll has not risen since July 6. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will keep tracking the death toll due to weather-related incident in Pakistan to show the people that how many citizens die during the monsoon season.

Monsoon 2011 update

• Third monsoon spell in full swing in Pakistan!

• Western trough and eastern currents interacting!

• Karachiites eagerly waiting for first drop of rain!

Third monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan

Lahore during a dust storm and rainfall

Lots of thunder, winds, rainfall, black clouds and lightening, this is what Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir and few parts of Gilgit are experiencing since few days. The third monsoon spell will continue till July 17 with occasional gaps, the interaction between a western trough and monsoon currents from the Arabian sea is the main cause that would cause some heavy rainfall but no flooding-like situation likely at the moment, at least not from the third spell. After July 17, a break is expected all over Pakistan but few isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out during that period. During the last week of July, a fourth spell of monsoon and a final monsoon rainfall of July is expected in these same areas.

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Will the Indian monsoon-friendly phenomena return back? Some experts at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) have forecasted that La-Nina will return from August.These were the same experts who said that the La-Nina of 2010 would be completely over in June, which proved true. Last year, La-Nina brought above normal monsoon to many parts of Indian Sub continent with worst flooding in decades in Pakistan.

They have also said that flooding rainfall may occur in most parts of Indian-Sub continent from August till October due to the return of La-Nina and emergence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole along with it

Similar forecast was issued by U.S experts few days back. Already the La-Nina is being blamed for heat waves in United States and worst drought in Africa. US says La-Nina will return in later this year. Question is, Will it affect the South-West Monsoon? If La-Nina occurs in September or October than most of its effect will be on North-East monsoon, which does not occur in Pakistan. So La-Nina must start in August for it to increase the intensity of South-West monsoon. But it is also worth mentioning that most weather models does not forecast any La-Nina or +IOD, they say that conditions are likely to be neutral till 2012. So will the Japanese be proved right?