There’s a nice old saying about how bewildering it is when you don’t quite realise that others find you a a colossal bore and embarrassment: “I brought my harp to the party, but no one asked me to play!” This must be how Don Brash and his productivity posse are feeling. Let’s not forget, they were specifically asked to bring their harps to the party, making their comprehensive snubbing the more painful.

Not only is no one asking them to play, but most of Parliament has indicated it would rather sit through a marathon concert by the Labour Party caucus women with a special descant by Helen Clark than hear a single note more of the productivity taskforce’s report.

Jane Clifton’s opening to her column in the latest print edition of The Listener. She makes some good points in her commentary. She thinks Brash was set up and Rodney as well.

A letter to the Editor of The Dominion Post on the Brash 2025 Report

2025 Task Force chairman Don Brash tells us that not only are his policies the only ones that will close the income gap with Australia, but that the reason they have not been followed is a lack of courage on the part of successive governments.

Yet, in 2005, as National Party leader, he denied vehemently Labour Party claims that these were his policies, presumably because he knew full well that if the public thought that they were, he would have gone down to catastrophic defeat.

So either he was guilty of what he now implies about former Labour leader Helen Clark and Prime Minister John Key, or he was planning to do what he said he would not.

In parliamentary terms, that makes him guilty of one of two banned words: the “H” word or the “L” word.

Whichever, one small fact might help: the income gap referred to grew by far the most in the very years (1984-1993) when Dr Brash’s economic prescription was most closely followed.

Dr MICHAEL CULLEN

Ohope

Down in the undergrowth something stirs.

Have yet to read the 2025 taskforce report, but am not surprised at the reception.

As Adam susepcted it appears to be full of tired nostrums. Indeed a 147 page political suicide note.

Given some comments Brash had made earlier Adam had hoped for something much better, but sadly it was not to be.

This should not be taken as agreeing with Key and English.

Brash seems to want to endlessly re-litigate the result of the 2005 election, which while understandable for him personally, isn’t really going to help anyone.

Colin Espiner on the Brash 2025 review

Je n’arrive pas à choisir entre la fabrication d’une fiction et le tourisme écologique
(Tarnac 0 – Copenhague 1)

There is no substitute for knowing about the environment, one’s adversary, and oneself. Alternative courses of action which are informed decisions rather than poor choices based on chance flow from knowledge. Without knowing what is going on, one is deaf, dumb, and blind–without reference point or compass. With knowledge, informed decisions are possible. The odds of accomplishing one’s purpose increase dramatically. The knowledge of others–their intentions, capabilities, and actions–is valuable in itself. It can add to our capacity for defense or our ability to compel an adversary to do our will when necessary. It can enable our capacity to deny, degrade, delay, or destroy an adversary’s assets, military capability, or will to resist. More importantly, their knowledge that we know is even more useful. It can increase deterrence–our ability to prevent another from doing something. Those technologies that increase our awareness–our ability to know, to “see the other side of the hill,” to have the basic information on which to make reasoned choices–are not only invaluable, they are a prerequisite to the efficient and effective deployment or employment of military force. Knowledge is the biggest force multiplier. Investment in emerging technologies, systems, and concepts of operations which increase our awareness–our knowledge–yield the greatest returns. Increasingly, space-based sensors; the computer architecture needed to collect, process, and distribute massive amounts of data; and the timely dissemination of such information will be critical to the successful deployment and employment of military force in the twenty-first century. The studies summarized below constitute efforts to enhance our awareness in a variety of ways. In that knowledge is power; they represent the cornerstone for how the USAF should provide for US security in 2025. They are critical to the ability for the US to adapt to a complex, constantly changing, and uncertain strategic environment.
Air and space forces are particularly well suited to enhancing awareness. They can operate at great distance from the continental US and provide the most rapid manner to “see” what is going on by a variety of means. They are the most timely assets to make continual assessments of an unfolding reality which may be hostile and closed to surface-based assets. Whether it is a manned aircraft, a UAV, or satellite in LEO or geosynchronous orbit, the USAF has a variety of platforms and capabilities to provide awareness for US decision makers. That capacity will improve greatly as we move towards 2025.
Awareness/Information Concepts and Systems
World Wide Information Control System
The World Wide Information Control System (WICS) is a system to supersede C4I. It seeks to gather, process, and present in-time information to military users. A secondary set of objectives is to provide uninterrupted, secure, global communications for military forces. It seeks to do so through an integrated system of low earth orbit data harvesters and geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) distributed processing using multispectral sensing and direct laser links to both GEO and LEO satellites for critical data transfers. The second way in which it operates is through BATTLE-NET, a streamlined, computer based, networked information database similar to the Internet but dedicated for military purposes. The key to the system is the connectivity and the accessibility of information in a timely manner. Access is gained through a personal interface card (PIC) for users across a layered access–tactical, operational and strategic. Development of WICS depends on the enhancement of the enabling technologies required–data collection, data processing, presentation, communications, and information control. These technologies will be pursued for the most part by commercial as well as military users. Hence, the costs, though great, do not have to be borne solely by the military. A number of technologies applicable to a WICS are either under way in research and development or likely to emerge within the next 30 years. Among these are high bandwidth laser communications, data compression systems, information protection, signal processing for distributed satellite communications, and improved networking technologies. WICS represents the ultimate in centralized control and decentralized execution for the military user.
2025 In-Time Information Integration System, (I3S)
This paper describes the system needed to integrate all sources of data in order to achieve “top sight vision.” This begins with the data collected from an array of sophisticated sensors linked in a global information net. This net, an in-time information integration system (I3S), incorporates artificial intelligence, neural nets, and fuzzy logic to produce an advanced computer systems architecture for data collection, transmission, and analysis. To do so will require terabyte capability and microprocessor “brains” working in an optical medium. These would be embedded throughout a three-dimensional distributed architecture to enhance timeliness, safeguard data, and provide back-up communications paths. The microprocessor brains would discriminate based on the type of information and data flows required by different users in different times.
This system would require a global grid of multiple intelligent plug-in nodes. It would have connectivity to a variety of input sensors and data users, be they land-, sea-, air-, or space-based. A critical element would be an enhanced visual display of an unfolding event, a particular place, or a segment of time one wished to view. This system would depend on emerging computer technologies and concepts such as quantum computer technology, holographic association, and nonlinear processing, optical computers, and even deoxyribonucleic acid computers. Such a system would have commercial as well as military applications. Cost sharing is critical to the development and deployment of such a system. Possessing such a system would enhance the ability of the US to claim the high ground in the struggle for information dominance and secure its superpower status well into the twenty-first century.

Organizing for Awareness
The Command or Control Dilemma: When Technology and Organizational Orientation Collide
Traditionally, the military response to increasing technological competencies has been greater centralization. Unfortunately, greater centralized control is the exact opposite of what is required to maximize the full benefits of the burgeoning advances in information technology. As the tempo of operations increases, so does the amount of information processed and the demand for faster decision making amid greater and greater data flows. We have had an information revolution. We can collect far more information in a faster cycle than ever before. Unfortunately, what we need is a decision-making revolution–a means by which we can make use of the information collected, a way to sort it, assess it, and act upon it in a timely and effective manner. [...] The ability to create a new system for readiness and sustainment measurement increases the commander’s awareness of his own forces and assets rather than those of the enemy or the strategic environment in general. Having an integrated system for measuring, adjusting, and forecasting readiness and training will help provide the USAF with a comparative advantage over its adversaries. This system is called Joint Readiness Assessment And Planning Integrated Decision System (JRAPIDS). JRAPIDS is a computerized data system to measure both operational and structural readiness in terms of responsiveness, training, and sustainability. It is an overall architecture for real-time assessment. It will automatically update the readiness status of individuals, units, and forces (active, guard, and reserve) while providing decision makers a comprehensive measure of readiness and sustainment that focuses on outputs. The final product consists of a time-variable, mission-scaleable matrix depicting capability available over time in a given theater of operations for a specific task or mission. This provides decision makers with an overall force management capability. Such a complex data collection, processing, and management system is possible if we desire it through the merging technologies of artificial intelligence and increased computing and communications capabilities.
Virtual Integrated Planning and Execution Resource System:

original document here

ΜΕΤΕΩΡΟΛΟΓΙΚΑ ΟΠΛΑ 13 ΧΡΟΝΙΑ ΠΡΙΝ….(1996)

In the United States, weather-modification will likely become a part of national security policy with both domestic and international applications. Our government will pursue such a policy, depending on its interests, at various levels. In this paper we show that appropriate application of weather-modification can provide battlespace dominance to a degree never before imagined. In the future, such operations will enhance air and space superiority and provide new options for battlespace shaping and battlespace awareness. “The technology is there, waiting for us to pull it all together” [General Gordon R. Sullivan, "Moving into the 21st Century: America's Army and Modernization," Military Review (July 1993) quoted in Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard Szymber, "Weather a Force Multiplier," Military Review, November/December 1995, 75].

A global, precise, real-time, robust, systematic weather-modification capability would provide war-fighting CINCs [an acronym meaning "Commander IN Chief" of a unified command] with a powerful force multiplier to achieve military objectives. Since weather will be common to all possible futures, a weather-modification capability would be universally applicable and have utility across the entire spectrum of conflict. The capability of influencing the weather even on a small scale could change it from a force degrader to a force multiplier. In 1957, the president’s advisory committee on weather control explicitly recognized the military potential of weather-modification, warning in their report that it could become a more important weapon than the atom bomb [William B. Meyer, "The Life and Times of US Weather: What Can We Do About It?" American Heritage 37, no. 4 (June/July 1986), 48]. Today [since 1969], weather-modification is the alteration of weather phenomena over a limited area for a limited period of time. [Herbert S. Appleman, An Introduction to Weather-modification (Scott AFB, Ill.: Air Weather Service/MAC, September 1969), 1].

In the broadest sense, weather-modification can be divided into two major categories: suppression and intensification of weather patterns. In extreme cases, it might involve the creation of completely new weather patterns, attenuation or control of severe storms, or even alteration of global climate on a far-reaching and/or long-lasting scale.
Extreme and controversial examples of weather modification-creation of made-to-order weather, large-scale climate modification, creation and/or control (or “steering”) of severe storms, etc.-were researched as part of this study… the weather-modification applications proposed in this report range from technically proven to potentially feasible.
Applying Weather-modification to Military Operations
How will the military, in general, and the USAF, in particular, manage and employ a weather-modification capability? We envision this will be done by the weather force support element (WFSE), whose primary mission would be to support the war-fighting CINCs with weather-modification options, in addition to current forecasting support. Although the WFSE could operate anywhere as long as it has access to the GWN and the system components already discussed, it will more than likely be a component within the AOC or its 2025-equivalent. With the CINC’s intent as guidance, the WFSE formulates weather-modification options using information provided by the GWN, local weather data network, and weather-modification forecast model. The options include range of effect, probability of success, resources to be expended, the enemy’s vulnerability, and risks involved. The CINC chooses an effect based on these inputs, and the WFSE then implements the chosen course, selecting the right modification tools and employing them to achieve the desired effect. Sensors detect the change and feed data on the new weather pattern to the modeling system which updates its forecast accordingly. The WFSE checks the effectiveness of its efforts by pulling down the updated current conditions and new forecast(s) from the GWN and local weather data network, and plans follow-on missions as needed. This concept is illustrated in figure 3-2. Two key technologies are necessary to meld an integrated, comprehensive, responsive, precise, and effective weather-modification system. Advances in the science of chaos are critical to this endeavor. Also key to the feasibility of such a system is the ability to model the extremely complex nonlinear system of global weather in ways that can accurately predict the outcome of changes in the influencing variables. Researchers have already successfully controlled single variable nonlinear systems in the lab and hypothesize that current mathematical techniques and computer capacity could handle systems with up to five variables. Advances in these two areas would make it feasible to affect regional weather patterns by making small, continuous nudges to one or more influencing factors. Conceivably, with enough lead time and the right conditions, you could get “made-to-order” weather [William Brown, "Mathematicians Learn How to Tame Chaos," New Scientist (30 May 1992): 16].
The total weather-modification process would be a real-time loop of continuous, appropriate, measured interventions, and feedback capable of producing desired weather behavior.
The essential ingredient of the weather-modification system is the set of intervention techniques used to modify the weather. The number of specific intervention methodologies is limited only by the imagination, but with few exceptions they involve infusing either energy or chemicals into the meteorological process in the right way, at the right place and time. The intervention could be designed to modify the weather in a number of ways, such as influencing clouds and precipitation, storm intensity, climate, space, or fog.
PRECIPITATION
“…significant beneficial influences can be derived through judicious exploitation of the solar absorption potential of carbon black dust” [William M. Gray et al., "Weather-modification by Carbon Dust Absorption of Solar Energy," Journal of Applied Meteorology 15 (April 1976): 355]. The study ultimately found that this technology could be used to enhance rainfall on the mesoscale, generate cirrus clouds, and enhance cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds in otherwise dry areas. [...] if we are fortunate enough to have a fairly large body of water available upwind from the targeted battlefield, carbon dust could be placed in the atmosphere over that water. Assuming the dynamics are supportive in the atmosphere, the rising saturated air will eventually form clouds and rainshowers downwind over the land.
Numerous dispersal techniques [of carbon dust] have already been studied, but the most convenient, safe, and cost-effective method discussed is the use of afterburner-type jet engines to generate carbon particles while flying through the targeted air. This method is based on injection of liquid hydrocarbon fuel into the afterburner’s combustion gases [this explains why contrails have now become chemtrails].
To date, much work has been done on UAVs [Unmanned Aviation Vehicles] which can closely (if not completely) match the capabilities of piloted aircraft. If this UAV technology were combined with stealth and carbon dust technologies, the result could be a UAV aircraft invisible to radar while en route to the targeted area, which could spontaneously create carbon dust in any location. If clouds were seeded (using chemical nuclei similar to those used today or perhaps a more effective agent discovered through continued research) before their downwind arrival to a desired location, the result could be a suppression of precipitation. In other words, precipitation could be “forced” to fall before its arrival in the desired territory, thereby making the desired territory “dry.”
FOG
Field experiments with lasers have demonstrated the capability to dissipate warm fog at an airfield with zero visibility. Smart materials based on nanotechnology are currently being developed with gigaops computer capability at their core. They could adjust their size to optimal dimensions for a given fog seeding situation and even make adjustments throughout the process. They might also enhance their dispersal qualities by adjusting their buoyancy, by communicating with each other, and by steering themselves within the fog. They will be able to provide immediate and continuous effectiveness feedback by integrating with a larger sensor network and can also change their temperature and polarity to improve their seeding effects [J. Storrs Hall, "Overview of Nanotechnology," adapted from papers by Ralph C. Merkle and K. Eric Drexler, Rutgers University, November 1995]. As mentioned above, UAVs could be used to deliver and distribute these smart materials. Recent army research lab experiments have demonstrated the feasibility of generating fog. They used commercial equipment to generate thick fog in an area 100 meters long. Further study has shown fogs to be effective at blocking much of the UV/IR/visible spectrum, effectively masking emitters of such radiation from IR weapons [Robert A. Sutherland, "Results of Man-Made Fog Experiment," Proceedings of the 1991 Battlefield Atmospherics Conference (Fort Bliss, Tex.: Hinman Hall, 3-6 December 1991)].
STORMS
The damage caused by storms is indeed horrendous. For instance, a tropical storm has an energy equal to 10,000 one-megaton hydrogen bombs [Louis J. Battan, Harvesting the Clouds (Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday & Co., 1960), 120]. At any instant there are approximately 2,000 thunderstorms taking place. In fact 45,000 thunderstorms, which contain heavy rain, hail, microbursts, wind shear, and lightning form daily [Gene S. Stuart, "Whirlwinds and Thunderbolts," Nature on the Rampage (Washington, D.C.: National Geographic Society, 1986), 130]. Weather-modification technologies might involve techniques that would increase latent heat release in the atmosphere, provide additional water vapor for cloud cell development, and provide additional surface and lower atmospheric heating to increase atmospheric instability. The focus of the weather-modification effort would be to provide additional “conditions” that would make the atmosphere unstable enough to generate cloud and eventually storm cell development. One area of storm research that would significantly benefit military operations is lightning modification… but some offensive military benefit could be obtained by doing research on increasing the potential and intensity of lightning. Possible mechanisms to investigate would be ways to modify the electropotential characteristics over certain targets to induce lightning strikes on the desired targets as the storm passes over their location.
In summary, the ability to modify battlespace weather through storm cell triggering or enhancement would allow us to exploit the technological “weather” advances.
SPACE WEATHER-MODIFICATION
This section discusses opportunities for control and modification of the ionosphere and near-space environment for force enhancement. A number of methods have been explored or proposed to modify the ionosphere, including injection of chemical vapors and heating or charging via electromagnetic radiation or particle beams (such as ions, neutral particles, x-rays, MeV particles, and energetic electrons) – [Peter M. Banks, "Overview of Ionospheric Modification from Space Platforms," in Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems (AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990) 19-1]. It is important to note that many techniques to modify the upper atmosphere have been successfully demonstrated experimentally. Ground-based modification techniques employed by the FSU include vertical HF heating, oblique HF heating, microwave heating, and magnetospheric modification [Capt Mike Johnson, Upper Atmospheric Research and Modification-Former Soviet Union (U), DST-18205-475-92 (Foreign Aerospace Science and Technology Center, AF Intelligence Command, 24 September 1992)].
Creation of an artificial uniform ionosphere was first proposed by Soviet researcher A. V. Gurevich in the mid-1970s. An artificial ionospheric mirror (AIM) would serve as a precise mirror for electromagnetic [EM]radiation of a selected frequency or a range of frequencies.
ARTIFICIAL WEATHER
While most weather-modification efforts rely on the existence of certain preexisting conditions, it may be possible to produce some weather effects artificially, regardless of preexisting conditions. For instance, virtual weather could be created by influencing the weather information received by an end user. Nanotechnology also offers possibilities for creating simulated weather. A cloud, or several clouds, of microscopic computer particles, all communicating with each other and with a larger control system could provide tremendous capability. Interconnected, atmospherically buoyant, and having navigation capability in three dimensions, such clouds could be designed to have a wide-range of properties… Even if power levels achieved were insufficient to be an effective strike weapon [if power levels WERE sufficient, they would be an effective strike weapon], the potential for psychological operations in many situations could be fantastic.
One major advantage of using simulated weather to achieve a desired effect is that unlike other approaches, it makes what are otherwise the results of deliberate actions appear to be the consequences of natural weather phenomena. In addition, it is potentially relatively inexpensive to do. According to J. Storrs Hall, a scientist at Rutgers University conducting research on nanotechnology, production costs of these nanoparticles could be about the same price per pound as potatoes [Ibid, Hall].
Weather affects everything we do, and weather-modification can enhance our ability to dominate the aerospace environment. The US Army has already alluded to this approach in their concept of “owning the weather.” Accordingly, storm modification will become more valuable over time [Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard Szymber, "Weather a Force Multiplier," Military Review, November/December 1995, 69]. As depicted, the technologies and capabilities associated with such a counter weather role will become increasingly important. The importance of space weather-modification will grow with time. Its rise will be more rapid at first as the technologies it can best support or negate proliferate at their fastest rates.
CONCLUSIONS
The ability to modify the weather may be desirable both for economic and defense reasons. The global weather system has been described as a series of spheres or bubbles. Pushing down on one causes another to pop up [Daniel S. Halacy, The Weather Changers (New York: Harper & Row, 1968), 202]. The lessons of history indicate a real weather-modification capability will eventually exist despite the risk. The drive exists. People have always wanted to control the weather and their desire will compel them to collectively and continuously pursue their goal. The motivation exists. The potential benefits and power are extremely lucrative and alluring for those who have the resources to develop it. This combination of drive, motivation, and resources will eventually produce the technology. History also teaches that we cannot afford to be without a weather-modification capability once the technology is developed and used by others. Even if we have no intention of using it, others will. To call upon the atomic weapon analogy again, we need to be able to deter or counter their capability with our own. As the preceding chapters have shown, weather-modification is a force multiplier with tremendous power that could be exploited across the full spectrum of war-fighting environments… But, while offensive weather-modification efforts would certainly be undertaken by US forces with great caution and trepidation, it is clear that we cannot afford to allow an adversary to obtain an exclusive weather-modification capability.

original document here

L’ambition nationale du Grand Paris, par Christian Blanc

Le 23 novembre, j’ai présenté à l’Assemblée le projet de loi qui sera l’acte I du Grand Paris. La veille, l’exposition des projets des dix équipes d’architectes-urbanistes, chargées par le président de la République d’imaginer l’urbanisme de la future métropole, fermera ses portes ; elle aura permis à un peu plus de 205 000 visiteurs de rêver aux visages possibles d’une ville-monde post-Kyoto. Ce projet de loi ne signera pas le passage du rêve à une réalité affaiblissant notre ambition. Car si nous avons tous le même grand désir et la même grande ambition, nous sommes aussi tous conscients du temps et des rythmes nécessaires pour transformer nos rêves en réalité.

Le Monde.fr

Un chantier qui devrait s’achever autour de 2025

• La Société du Grand Paris, créée par le projet de loi sur le Grand Paris, est chargée de la réalisation du métro. L’État sera majoritaire au conseil de surveillance où siègeront la Région et les huit départements d’Ile-de-France. Elle participera à l’aménagement des terrains autour des quelque quarante gares. L’État pourra signer des “contrats de développement territoriaux” sur ces zones avec les élus.
• Le tracé du métro sera arrêté par décret en Conseil d’État après consultation des habitants par la commission nationale du débat public.
• L’emplacement des gares sera connu fin 2010. Les travaux commenceront en 2013. Les premiers tronçons seront mis en service en 2017. Le chantier devrait être achevé autour de 2025.
• Le coût de la construction du métro est estimé par Christian Blanc à 21 milliards d’euros. Il prévoit une dotation d’État de 4 milliards et un emprunt de 17 milliards remboursables en quarante ans.
• Le projet de loi sur le Grand Paris crée l’établissement public d’aménagement du pôle scientifique du plateau de Saclay (Essonne).

Voir aussi

• Le Monde.fr – Grand Paris : faut-il croire au pari de Christian Blanc ?
• Le Monde.fr – Le projet du Grand Paris n’est pas métropolitain, par Daniel Behar et Philippe Estebe
• Le Monde.fr – “On ne dit pas non au Grand Paris”
• Le Monde.fr – Les architectes se sentent “comme le cresson autour du rôti”
• Le Monde.fr – Le mille-feuille politique de la région-capitale
• Le Monde.fr – Quel Grand Paris prépare Nicolas Sarkozy ?

Précédemment

• Patrick Guyennon.fr – Michel Bourdeau : “L’horizon de la ville n’est pas un mirage d’architecte”
• Patrick Guyennon.fr – Paul Chemetov : “Les mirages annoncés du Grand Paris se sont dissipés”
• Patrick Guyennon.fr – Le projet du Grand Paris est menacé de s’enliser dans la confusion, par Jean Nouvel

A lire !

• Paris et le désert français, par Jean-François Gravier (Flammarion, 1947)

I believe that in 2025, Americans will get their news in similar ways that they do today, but there will be a few changes. I think that newspapers will decline slowly and steadily, while online news will continue to grow at a very quick pace. Americans are all about receiving news as fast and as easily as possible, so I think that the use of handheld devices, such as iPhones, is vital to how people will get their news in 2025.

I think that it is hard to predict exactly how phones and other handheld gadgets can evolve any further than they already have, but I am positive that there will be many new devices by 2025 that will allow for the fastest and easiest ways for Americans to get their news. Also, I think that televisions will become more interactive by that time, with the possibility for touch-screen news on demand. I think that a very useful and innovative invention would be a TV/computer hybrid that would allow people to see news in ways that they never have before.

Overall, I think that the way that Americans get their news will remain primarily the same, but as always, technology will continue to evolve and we will see new innovations that we might have never thought were possible in the coming years.

Simon Hendery writes in the NZ Herald on efforts by the Welsh Regional Government to attract  Kiwi IT companies to set up there and some of the inducements on offer.

At the end of the article he writes:-

Perhaps just as importantly, we should be monitoring its success to see if we can win some business back in this direction.

New Zealand may not be able to offer the proximity to the huge European market that is a key selling point for IBW, but we have other selling points that are of interest to the technology industry, including our time zone (allowing overnight delivery of services to Europe during our business hours) and the “lifestyle” benefits that attract migrants from around the world.

I was disappointed with this comment. For high tech IT firms proximity for the sales people yes, but surely we can do the R&D here,especially once we have reliable heavy duty broadband, furthermore our cost structure is surely not as high. Why do we keep quoting lifestyle, we have as well the China FTA for example and the newly concluded Malaysian one.

Looking at 2025 aspirations surely we could design an investment regime that makes it attractive to set up here, rather than say in Wales. Maybe not!

New Zealand may be entering a new era of oil wealth according to our Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee.

He anounced yesterday that by 2025 our oil and gas reserves could earn us a mammoth $30 billion New Zeland dollars a year.

He says the tax reciepts from the $30 billion would be enough to wipe out our current cash deficit.

While this may be big news in little old New Zealand we will hardly be joining the big boys when it comes to petrolium.

To put the news into perspective Saudi Arabia has a whopping 267 billion barrels of proven oil reserves compared to our estimated 6.5 billion (which equals roughly 2.4 percent of their reserves)

See more on stuff here

I heard Don Brash on National Radio in an interesting discussion about the 2025 Taskforce with Kathryn Ryan. Last weekend I read articles on the Malaysian FTA, yesterday I listened to Lord Patten speak at the Wellington Regional Chamber of Commerce on trade and FTAs amongst other matters. We appear to be making progress with our ambitions to eventually achieve FTAs with India and Japan.

Yet I must admit that whilst this is all very good, it will be for nought if NZ companies do not take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves. In that regard as I noted the other day there are some grounds for concern.

Thus it was with considerable interest that I read Bridget Liddell’s timely and relevant article in Thursday’s NZ Herald.

Her article begins:-

Short-term thinking is undermining the ability of New Zealand’s businesses to make a serious impact internationally.

Kind of gets your attention.

Rightly she identifies:-

Our most successful companies overseas build constituencies across every aspect of their business, including governance, management, branding and marketing, channel partnerships, funding partnerships, media, interest groups and communities, online and off. All these pieces of the networking puzzle combine to build significant equity value over time.

Patient cultivation of networks is also important in building shareholder value

The key thrust is that business should build equity value and have that as their key objective, rather than revenue growth. Note also the emphasis in the comment on networks on which she has some very useful comments elsewhere in the article.

I might be inferring too much from the article, but I thought Mrs Liddell suggests that many NZ companies do not prepare properly to expand overseas; coupled with a revenue/commodity mind set rather than a value based one.

I agree fully with her closing statement:-

Now is the time for our companies to get smart about pulling the strategic levers that generate long-term gains in the United States and around the world.

It is by taking account of the points made in this article that NZ companies could begin to close the gaps not just with Australia, but with other countries. Smarts, strategy and focus are most likely to aid achievement of the 2025 objective, not the tired nostrums of the past.

Kevin Drum at Mother Jones makes a prediction:

I’ll stick with 2025 for now.  There may be small local papers around for longer than that, but no big city dailies.  New York will be the last to go, but in fifteen years newspapers will be a thing of the past even there.

Continuing from the previous post of charging a car, let’s discuss the future energy modules that we are going to use in our everyday gadgets like cell phones, notebooks, and others.

There is still a big possibility to use solar power with much more efficiency. Right now in regular solar cell modules, there is an almost record converting efficiency close to only 20%. Are you kidding me?! Is there anybody who seriously thinks that it is a max that we can get from the solar beams? Well, recently there were several claims of reaching the 40% in a huge commercial type solar panel that takes up lots of space in manufacturing facility. There is also a recent claim from Sharp of getting close to 36% conversion in solar cell using the triple-junction compound based on InGaAs (indium gallium arsenide). However, still, we have an absolute record of only 43% of converting efficiency in solar systems. That’s way too low. Well, yes, it’s kinda record breaking for now but there is a possibility that we can get close to 90% sometime in the future using special programmable matter’s lattice.

In addition to getting higher on the conversion efficiency, there are many other ways to integrating more technologies into the power systems, like mentioned above the programmable lattice. We are now only in the beginning of era that uses the fixed matter lattice. Later on, the scientists will be able to modify the lattice structure to adapt the matter to a new properties.

Now let’s try to incorporate the laser technology into the modifiable ultra high solar cell. Imagine that modified matter of solar cell is being hit by the high powered laser with the concentrated light beam with appropriate properties that sets off the building up of the power generating process like in nuclear systems. This way, the regular (well, at that time in the future it is going to be regular, not now) solar cell of one square centimeter could generate lots of energy that can support our everyday gadgets.

Combining all those technologies and developments, we would be able to setup the charging systems for our gadgets the following way: in our mobile phones or laptops we will have a receiver (like infrared one sometimes back in our laptops) that will act as a modified solar cell. Once we are low on the charge, once a week or so by that time, we just bring the gadget close to the charging station (like a power socket, available everywhere in our houses later on) facing the receiver portion of the gadget and getting a quick super charge shot by the charging station/module, which will be just a high powered laser beam hitting the modified solar cell setting off the energy release into the storage of the device.

And that’s only three technologies we’ve combined together to setup such a charging infrastructure: solar power, modifiable matter’s lattice, and laser beaming. Assuming there will be more appropriate technologies that could add on to the overall “charge shot” system, we might see the quick progress in such a system. When is it going to be ready on the mass market? What’s your opinion? I say 2025!

See you in the future… or now!

Life on Earth is a pure result of extreme coincidence. Life on Earth is the culmination of many independent variables, such as the tectonic plates, the moon, the Sun, atmosphere, liquid water, etc. We may imagine all of these variables as a super complex bank account password combined of 2 billion different symbols. The chances of other intelligent life being out there are as possible as the replication of the same 2 billion symbol password. If universe were infinite, other intelligent life would be probable, because there woudl be an infinite number of chances to replicate the “password”, however, we know that universe is not infinite, thus making other life a high improbability. The shape of the universe is sponge-like, and full of holes and cavities. Cavities are regions of matter with galaxies and etc, while the sponge-material between the cavities represents regions of anti-matter and/or dark matter.

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This is the story for the search for extraterrestrials. Does ET really exist. Go on a journey to find out. Visit alien planets in search of life. Dive into the oceans of distant moons. On earth Astronomers scan the Universe for alien life and seek out the answer to one of life’s greatest questions. Is there life on other worlds or could it be that we are completely and utterly alone?

Part One

Part Two

Part Three

Part Four

Gestern Abend nahm ich an der öffentlichen Sitzung (Workshop) im Rathaus Pfedelbach zum Gemeindeentwicklungsplan Pfedelbach 2025 teil. Es war ein sehr interessanter und kurzweiliger Abend, trotz 4,5 Stunden länge.

Frau Häsler und Frau Siegele von der LBBW Immobilien Kommunalentwicklung GmbH wurden von der Gemeinde Pfedelbach damit beauftragt, einen Gemeindeentwicklungsplan für Pfedelbach zu erstellen. Sie berichteten zuerst von ihrer Sicht, wie sie als Außenstehende Pfedelbach wahrgenommen haben. Dieser Bericht war sehr interessant, da die beiden Frauen sehr unbefangen und ohne eine “Pfedelbacher Brille” ganz anders hinschauen konnten.

Ihr Fazit lautete: Pfedelbach bewegt sich auf einem sehr hohen Standard, so dass es recht schwierig war überhaupt Defizite zu finden. Eher wurden Verbesserungsvorschläge bei bereits bestehenden Situationen eingebracht. So sollte Pfedelbach beispielsweise mehr auf die Seen und Bäche setzten die sie zur Verfügung haben. Schade sei, dass trotz vieler Bäche ein Zugang zum Wasser (vor allem für Kinder) kaum gegeben sei.

In einer langen Session wurden dann die Stärken und Schwächen Pfedelbach`s aus Sicht der 20 anwesenden Bürger und Bürgerinnen gesammelt und anschließend in zwei Gruppen diskutiert. Hauptkritikpunkte waren der hohe Verkehr im Ortskern, die verbessungswürdige Jugend- und Sozialarbeit sowie der Bereich Tourismus und Wegenetz. Hierzu wurden Ziele und entsprechende Maßnahmen erarbeitet, welche nun dem Gemeinderat als Ergebnisse präsentiert werden. Dieser muss dann wiederum entscheiden was von all dem in Angriff genommen werden kann und soll.

Bürgermeister Kunkel beschloss den Abend mit der Zusage, dass im Januar/Februar 2010 die Ergebnisse der Öffentlichkeit vorgestellt werden und dann auch Stellung dazu genommen wird, warum manche Dinge sofort, manche erst später und ander eventuell gar nicht umgesetzt werden.

Im gesamten war es eine sehr positive und lobenswerte Veranstaltung mit recht wenigen, dafür aber sehr engagierten Bürgern aus allen Alterschichten.

Hay tres grandes tipos de predicciones: tenemos las grandes tendencias que como mucho se atreven a aventurar unos porcentajes (como en “La bola de cristal (1): Pronósticos sobre energía 2030“); aquellos en los que se adelantan cantidades, lo que no deja de ser una variante del anterior (como en “La bola de cristal (2): algunos números para el 2025“); y por último los que son capaces de anticipar fechas y aventurar acontecimientos. Estos últimos tienen más de ciencia-ficción que predicción, y a veces son de un nivel de detalle casi hilarante. Me encantan.

El blog “The Futurist” tiene la credibilidad en esto de anticipar el futuro que cada uno quiera darle. No hay un think tank o un sesuso organismo tras él. Muy orientado a los temas de la Singularidad, tiene un enviadiable número de seguidores.

Como fervientes creyentes en la Singularidad, defienden la acelaración en el cambio, y en este caso en el crecimiento económico. Esto queda demostrado en el artículo “A Future Timeline for Economics” donde se aventura una línea del tiempo con la evolución hasta el año 2040 de la economía mundial, desde el punto de vista de la Singularidad:

2008-09: A pesar de la severa recesión en los EE.UU. y la desaceleración global, la capacidad de adquisión global sigue creciendo. No parece posible un crecimiento negativo del PIB mundial (lo que ocurre desde 1973) a pesar de los pésimos resultados en EE.UU. y Europa. La tasa de crecimiento del PIB mundial está en torno al 4,5% anual.

2010: El crecimiento del PIB mundial rebota fuertemente con un 5% anual. Más de 3 mil millones de personas viven ahora en economías emergentes que crecen más del 6% al año. Más de 80 países, incluida China, han alcanzado un índice de desarrollo humano de 0,800 o más, clasificándolos como países desarrollados.

2011: Más de 2 mil millones de personas tienen acceso a Internet de banda ancha a velocidades superiores a 1 Mbps, la mayoría de ellos a través de dispositivos móviles.

2013: Muchas casas unifamiliares en los EE.UU., particularmente en California, siguen teniendo un precio inferior a los niveles que alcanzó en la cima en 2006 (una predicción previa de The Futurist). Si se ajusta por el costo del capital en este período, muchos hogares de California han reducido su precio en un 50%.

2014: Las fuerzas deflacionarias económicas positivas introducidas por el impacto de la informática son grandes y generalizadas. Las industrias de semiconductores y almacenamiento tienen un tamaño conjunto de más de 800 mil millones $, desde de 450 mill millones en 2008. Un hogar medio en EE.UU. gasta ahora 2500 $ al año en semiconductores, almacenamiento, y otros artículos con precios desinflándose rápidamente. Los bienes adquiridos por 2500 $ en 2014 se podrán comprar por 1600 en 2015, 1000 en 2016, 600 en 2017, etc

2015: Un sedán de 4 puertas con un motor de 240 CV (que cuesta unos 5 céntimos/Km), estará disponible por 35.000 $ (media de su clase en precios de 2015). Este es el resultado combinado de los avances en materia de energía, nanomateriales e informática.

2016: Turismo médico supone 200 mil millones de $ al año de beneficio neto en los costes sanitarios en la economía de los EE.UU. La inversión en Salud se detiene, a excepción de las tecnologías más avanzadas para la extensión de la vida.

2018: Entre los nuevos vehículos vendidos, los de gasolina son ahora una minoría. Millones de vehículos se cargan diariamente a través de paneles solares, lo que supone un ahorro anual en combustible de unos 3000 $ anuales de 2008. Algunos vehículos eléctricos pueden costar tan solo 1 céntimo/Km.

2019: El índice Industrial Dow Jones supera los 25.000. El Nasdaq supera 5000, superando el récord establecido 19 años antes de principios de 2000.

2020: el PIB mundial per cápita supera los 15.000 dólares en 2008 (partiendo desde 8000 en 2008). Más de 100 de las naciones del mundo han alcanzado un índice de desarrollo humano de 0,800 o más, con la única excepción de las grandes concentraciones de pobreza que se encuentran en África y Asia meridional. Las necesidades básicas de alimentación, el vestido, la alfabetización, la electricidad y la vivienda están cubiertas para más del 90% de la humanidad. El comercio entre la India y EE.UU. llega a 400 mil millones de $ al año, frente a solamente 32 mil millones en 2006.

2022: Varios millones de personas de todo el mundo ganan más de 50.000 $ al año a través de actividades basadas en la web incluyendo: blogs, trueque, producción de vídeo, web de empresas, y las actividades económicas dentro de los mundos virtuales. Algunas de estas personas son menores de 16 años. Será portada el caso de niños que acaben ingresando a través de juegos y de forma legítima más de 1 millón de $.

2024: El hogar medio en los EE.UU. gasta ahora más de 5000 $ al año en productos y servicios relacionados con la informática, donde el valor recibido por cada dólar gastado se incrementa dramáticamente cada año. Estos incluyen electrónica, la biotecnología, el software, y productos de la nanotecnología. Incluso los coches se ‘actualizan’ como  un PC para recibir una mejora tecnológica mucho antes de que experimenten un fallo mecánico. Por supuesto, los productos y servicios adquiridos para estos 5000 dólares en el 2024 se puede obtener por 3200 en 2025, 2000 en 2026, 1300 en 2027, etc

2025: La impresión de los objetos sólidos a través de impresoras 3-D hace que las impresoras de bajo costo sean algo común en las hogares de clase media. Esto interrumpe la economía de la fabricación, y una renovación de la mayoría de modelos de fabricación de negocios.

2027: 90% de los seres humanos viven ahora en países con un Índice de Desarrollo Humano de la ONU más de 0.800 (en 2008 la definición de un “país desarrollado”, aproximadamente la de los EE.UU. en 1960). Muchos países asiáticos han logrado la paridad por cápita con Europa. Sólo en África contiene una mayor concentración de pobreza.

2030: Los Estados Unidos todavía tienen el mayor PIB nominal entre las naciones del mundo, superando los 50 billones de dólares en 2030. La economía de China es la segunda en tamaño. Ningún otro país llega a la mitad de alguno de ellos.

La tasa de crecimiento del PIB mundial ha superado el 5% al año. Al mismo tiempo se ha reducido la brecha per cápita desde 2000. Los EE.UU. crecen al 4% anual, mientras que China crece al 6%.

Existen 10.000 multimillonarios en todo el mundo, haciendo que pierdan algo de su exclusividad.

2032: Hay al menos 2 teravatios de capacidad fotovoltaica en funcionamiento en todo el mundo, generando un 8% de toda la energía consumida. Grandes granjas solares que cubren varios kilómetros cuadrados están en operación en el norte de África, el Oriente Medio, India y Australia. Estas granjas son visibles desde el espacio.

2034: El hogar medio de los EE.UU. gasta ahora más de 10.000 $ al año en productos y servicios relacionados con las TIC. Estos incluyen: software, electrónica, biotecnología, y productos de nanotecnología. Por supuesto, los productos y servicios adquiridos para este 10.000 dólares en el 2034 se pueden obtener por 6400 en 2035, 4000 en 2036, 2500 en 2037, etc

2040: rápida aceleración del crecimiento del PIB con la creación de una abundancia sorprendente que era inimaginable al comienzo del siglo. La desigualdad sigue siendo alta, pero esto es compensado por el hecho de que muchas fortunas individuales se han creado en tiempos muy cortos. Las herramientas básicas para producir riqueza están disponibles para al menos el 80% de todos los seres humanos.

El acusado aumento de la esperanza de vida distorsionan positivamente la economía, ya que ahora es posible mantenerse activo hasta bien pasada la edad de 80 años.

El turismo en el espacio es accesible para personas de clase media alta, y es muy solicitado.

Para que no todo sea de color de rosas, en el propio “The Futurist” se hace eco en “A Rebuttal to ‘Peak Oil’ Doomsday Predictions” de otros pronósticos más sombríos. La combinación del “peak oil” y una demanda creciente de energía desde los mercados emergentes lleva a un colapso económico global. En 2040 la economía mundial será mucho más pequeña que la actual, pocas personas podrán permitirse tener un automóvil, y el suministro eléctrico será poco fiable.

Pago de impuestos en 2021 (según FOUND en Wired)

Todos las predicciones que se recogen en el Proyecto A1 están en la sección “La Bola” (de cristal)

I lokalplaner skal det fremgå at nye byggerier med en tagkonstruktion under 30 graders hældning skal udføres med grønne tage.

Københavns  Klimaplan vedtaget 27. aug .

Rapporten er lang og din tid er måske knap. Men hvis jeg lige skulle pege på 2-3 sider du skylder dig selv at skimme, så er det kapitel 8. Her finder du 2 tilpasningsinitiativer (side 112-113) der omhandler henholdvis “Begrønning af byen” og “bygningstilpasning”.

Grønne tage er en af målsætningerne. Hele 325.000 m2 taggræsplæner over de næste 6 år! Det er altså en hel del. Du kan læse en fin artikel her på Ingeniøren.dk om netop dette initiativ.

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- Københavns Klimaplan (pdf, 138 sider)
- Sammenfatning af Klimaplan (pdf, 17 sider)

Du kan finde mere information her hos Københavns Kommune

Artikel Kompasiana “(1) Hiks.. Sedihnya Membaca Pidato Presiden 14 Agustus 2009” tentang kesangsian ketidaksejalanan program dan pelaksanaannya pemerintahan SBY 2009-2014 dengan sasaran utama, andai sejalan pun, adakah jaminan tercapainya sasaran utama oleh next generation 2014-2025. Sebuah artikel bagus melengkapi artikel saya, ”Tahun 2025 Makmur, Bukan Ilusi”. Saya memperoleh julukan pemberian rekan pengasuh blog Kompasiana, Seto Bukan Yudhoyono karena namanya kebetulan Seto Yudoyono tanpa ”h”. Ada-ada saja, terimakasih, sekarang saya manfaatkan.

Kalau itu benar, kita patut bersedih bagaimana sebuah mimpi besar yang juga impian kita semua, hanya dilaksanakan secara intuisi tanpa perencaan matang dan terarah, tanpa peta jalan (roadmap), strategi, dan tolok ukur pencapaian keberhasilan. Saya ilustrasikan di artikel kemarin itu dengan sederet garis bar hitam yang bergoyang, yang mengikut kemana saja pimpinan (”telunjuk”) mau. Tak penting menuju sasaran utama atau tidak, meski saya percaya semua pimpinan beritikad baik pasti ingin memajukan bangsa ini.

Tabel mini artikel dilampirkan ulang di sini sebagai contoh tolok ukur sederhana yang harus dilakukan Indonesia untuk mendongkrak potensi Pasar, Inovasi, dan Pendidikan untuk disebut maju. Angka rendah (< 20?) menunjukkan unggulan. Data Indonesia di tabel hanya karangan.

Ketiga parameter, secara kebetulan, membentuk sebuah lintasan runut, dari pendidikan yang memadai diharapkan melahirkan inovasi (kreativitas), yang didorong/diubah jadi komoditi yang diminati pasar. Menggunakan pola ini sebagai model, pikirkan diri kita masing-masing apa yang harus diperbuat agar impian makmur terwujud di tahun 2025. Dimulai dari ’ngeblog’.

Sekarang era informasi dimana internet sudah ada, blog sudah tersedia; masing-masing individu memiliki peluang sama besar untuk maju mendunia. Belajarlah’ngeblog’, lalu pikirkan hal kreatif menjadikan blog sesuatu yang bernilai hingga jadi duit. Ambil bilangan pesimistik 20% bloger Indonesia (total sudah 1 juta?) berhasil memetik 10 dolar saja per hari, kalikan 360 hari, ada berapa? Trilyun! Tidak bisa? Bloger Indonesia pintar lagi cerdas, apa-apa juga bisa!

Kurang realistik, katanya. Lihat jauh ke depan pemanfaatan lain blog sebagai perangkat strategis membangun ekonomi di negeri ini. Cobalah renungkan tidak hanya blog menghasilkan duit, tetapi juga dampaknya (industri, usaha). Peran blog menjadi penting dan harus diberdayakan; bayangkan di blog Kompasiana ada ruang khusus Kompasiana Blog Academia berisi Blog Untuk Pemula, Blog Bahasa Inggeris, Kisah Sukses Global Bloger Kompasiana, Paypal ala Kompasiana, Edublog, … pokoknya semua ketrampilan terkait iptek dan seni blog dan blogging. Haruskah semua ini menunggu pemerintah? Kesuwen, kelamaan.

Ini pikiran bodoh SBY yang bukan presiden, yang tetap optimis selalu ada jalan bagi bloger menuju tahun 2025 makmur, yang punya rencana, punya roadmap, punya strategi, punya tolok ukur pencapaian keberhasilan, … yang dijalankan, dan berhasil! Kalau kita tidak bangga dengan (maha)karya kita sendiri, lalu siapa?

Mari kita buktikan dengan beramai-ramai menciptakan sejarah baru.

Makmurlah Indonesiaku di 2025!

Besok kita merayakan ulang tahun kemerdekaan ke 64.

Menurut Visi Indonesia 2030 (oleh Yayasan Indonesia Forum), Indonesia akan menjadi kekuatan ekonomi nomor 5 dunia di tahun 2030 setelah Cina, India, Amerika, Uni Eropa. Perkiraan pendapatan per kapita Indonesia 18.000 dolar, inflasi 4.2%, PDB 5.1 triliun dolar, pertumbuhan ekonomi 6-7% per tahun. Tiga puluh perusahaan Indonesia masuk daftar 500 perusahaan terbaik dunia. Sebuah mimpi yang luar biasa.

Populasi diperkirakan mencapai 285 juta jiwa, namun dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi riil rata-rata 7,62 %, jauh lebih cepat dibandingkan laju inflasi yang 4,95 %, dapat ditafsirkan makmur! Indikasi ini diingatkan presiden dalam pidato kenegaraannya kemarin agar Indonesia “naik kelas” sebagai salahsatu negara maju tahun 2025.

Tinggal 15-20 tahun lagi! Bisakah?

Waktu 2 dasa warsa relatif sangat pendek. Apa rencana dan tindakan yang harus dan perlu dilakukan dalam kurun sependek itu agar Indonesia berkibar? Ini parameternya, antara lain.

‘Pe-er’ besar menunggu kita di depan! Data memberi sinyal kita harus bekerja luar biasa keras. (Data untuk Indonesia, hasil rekaan saja.) Siapa pun pemimpin negeri ini, sekarang, nanti, yang akan datang, harus bertekad keras menuntaskan ‘pe-er’ memegang teguh kemudi dan pedoman yang sama, melayarkan bahtera negeri menuju sasaran dalam waktu sesingkat-singkatnya. Dengan berpikir positif, nothing is impossible. Tinggalkan umbar semboyan, bermain-main, ikut diombang-ambing arus maju-mundur seperti gambar ini,

(Gerakkan telunjuk ke kiri dengan kecepatan tertentu sehingga garis bergerak mengikuti telunjuk; kebalikannya, gerakkan telunjuk ke kanan, garis ikut bergerak ke kanan. Telunjuk pimpinan, garis hitam kita.)

Apa pun pekerjaan atau jabatan saat ini, kita adalah pelayan. Syukuri dan jadilah pelayan panutan yang berbangga meladeni negeri tercinta dengan sebaik-baiknya, yang bekerja tanpa pamrih, tanpa dolanan. Masyarakat juga berhentilah mengeluh, cengeng, manja, apa-apa ‘nggak bisa, sedikit-sedikit minta.

Blog kini sudah berubah bentuk bukan lagi sekedar catatan harian, tetapi sebuah perangkat ampuh yang patut diperhitungkan sebagai bagian perjuangan mewujudkan impian 2025 -2030; ‘catch up.. or catch you later’ yang disadur bebas, “tangkaplah aku, … atau kutangkap dikau nanti!” Mari para bloger dan calon bloger, kita angkat “pena” dan bangun kekuatan kolektif dengan beramai-ramai menulis di blog.

‘Ngeblog’!

Gemah ripah loh jinawi, dirgahayu Indonesia!