Hey it’s those perpetual underachievers, the Indians. Things seemed so great in 2007. They had two aces (And were about to get another one the next year when Cliff Lee remembered he was good), they had a great center fielder (Sizemore), an up and coming second baseman (Cabrera), one of the best offensive catchers in baseball (Martinez, and Kelly Shoppach showed he was perhaps the best backup in baseball), the best defensive outfielder in the game (Guitierez), and a bunch of players that could decide to be phenomenal if circumstances allowed (Peralta, Hafner, Choo, Garko). They also had the makings of a solid bullpen with Betancourt and Perez having great seasons that year. And now, out of all of those players, they have only a few left. Hafner is ineffective and his contract appears to be weighing the whole team down. Peralta seems to be past his prime. Carmona can’t get it; he’s a head case. Perez lost it. Only Sizemore and Choo seem to have any value to them anymore, which is too bad, because if things had broken right for the Indians, they could have been a juggernaut for a few years in the Central; the Twins, White Sox and Tigers dodged a giant bullet. Is there any hope for the future in Cleveland? Kinda.

It feels like it’s been so much longer..

Catcher – I really have no idea what the plan is at catcher. They are rumors that Kelly Shoppach will be non tendered, which would seem to be a mistake, as he hit .261/.348/.517 in 2008. As a catcher. Additionally, he hit 21 home runs in only 403 PA’s. Obviously, this past year was a struggle. That can likely be explained by a 70 point drop in BABIP, since his line drive rate was the highest of his career in ‘09 (21.8%). He is almost sure to bounce back in 2010, and wouldn’t break the bank in arbitration in his second year of eligibility. The issue, of course, is Carlos Santana. Here’s a catching prospect who hit .290/.413/.530 in double A this past year. A year after OPS’ing over 1.000 in A+ in 2008. He has also shown the ability to walk more than he strikes out, a hallmark of superstars such as Pujols and Mauer. So… Santana looks to be a stud. But then there’s Lou Marson, who the Tribe received in the Cliff Lee trade. Marson has shown astounding walk rates in the minors, but not much else. Who among these three do you attempt to trade? Personally, I would try and shop Marson, banking on potential over prior results.

Give Carlos Santana a chance, won’t you?

1st Base – Wait.. do the Indians have a first baseman these days? Garko is gone. Hafner can’t do it. Is Matt LaPorta an option, because otherwise the top of the 1st base depth chart belongs to Andy Marte. The Andy Marte. I suggest an upgrade, perhaps even the return of Russel Branyan. Other possible options can be seen here.

2nd Base – They aren’t considering Luis Valbuena, are they? Valbuena showed solid walk rates in the minors, with a bit of pop. He then hit 10 home runs with the Indians in ‘09. His defense was fairly awful at shortstop, but a bit bit more tolerable at 2nd (-9.1 UZR/150), so perhaps with Cabrera at SS and Valbuena at second, middle infield defense will be at worst, acceptable for Cleveland. Cabrera has flashed quite a bit of prowess defensively (historically). Actually, given that it’s a time of rebuilding, I’d recommend the Indians go with Valbuena; he actually held his own overall offensively, stole some bases, and taking his minor league record into account, should be able to get on base more effectively in the future. Jason Donald figures to be a good alternative (.889 OPS at double A in ‘08), although he is coming back form a back injury.

Me? Second Baseman?

SS – The clumsily named Asdrubal Cabrera has developed into a decent middle infielder, although UZR shows he may be better suited as a second baseman (-.04 UZR/150 and -5.3 UZR/150 at second and short, respectively). He had a .799 OPS as a 23 year old in 2009, which is quite valuable. It looks like the Indians will be set at one of the middle infield positions for a while with Cabrera.

3rd Base – The even more clumsily named Jhonny Peralta is actually another decent piece for Cleveland. He’s still just 27, but he is a far cry from his first full season, in 2005, when he hit .292/.366/.520 with okay defense. This from a 23 year old shortsop. 2006 was a bad year, and then 2007-’08 were pretty good, with the OPS around .800 and 20+ homers. Last year was the worst year yet for Jhonny, as he hit just .254/.316/.375. His BABIP was basically the same as in prior years, as was his line drive %. Basically he just hit the bal on the ground constantly (50.2%, his highest by a good margin for his career) and naturally, his fly ball rate was at its lowest for Peralta’s career (30.6%). At 3rd base, that kind of production is going to get Jhonny traded (At best) or designated for assignment. There’s still time to rebound, and Peralta tends to rebound every other year or so.

Why you smiling? You’re chubby. Your name is mispelled. You couldn’t crack a .700 OPS last year. List goes on..

Outfield – Grady Sizemore probably doesn’t need to prove anything to anyone; he’s still an elite hitter, and his center field defense has historically been above average. Shin-Soo Choo finally got a full season under his belt, and excelled, hitting .300/.394/.489 with decent defense in right field. He even hit lefties pretty well (.823 OPS). The only potential problem is that he struck out 151 times, which likely won’t be a problem given Choo’s production. Then there’s young Matt LaPorta. He managed a .750 OPS, grounded mainly in decent power production (.442 SLG, .188 ISO). The issue, is that LaPorta’s plate discipline thus far hasn’t shown up in the majors (6.2% walk rate). But given that he still hasn’t had 200 PA’s in the big leagues, as well as his hitting pedigree, LaPorta stands a good chance to bust out in 2010 (Or 2011). His outfield defense was actually palatable (-.04 UZR/150), so overall I’d say the Indians have a decent outfield for 2010. But wait! They also have the impressive (OBP-wise), but powerless, Michael Brantley available. Give Brantley the left field job and put LaPorta at first (Unless they do acquire a first baseman). No upgrades needed.

DH – Travis Hafner, go away. Come again when.. well when it’s 2006 again. That’s the year when he probably should have won the MVP (1.097 OPS, 42 home runs). Lately, his old player skills have dissipated, likely due to a combination of age and his shoulder issues. He still managed a .823 OPS last year, but with only 16 home runs, and he was unable to stay healthy. Yet another Indian who has gone from a being a force to being well.. nothing useful.

Rotation:

ugggghhh

Jake Westbrook – A solid #3 starter when healthy. He missed all of ‘09 (And almost all of ‘08), however, with Tommy John surgery, and the rehab has not gone well. The Indians hope he’ll be okay to pitch on opening day, but that’s kind of up in the air at this point. Can he resume his ‘04-’07 4.00 FIP days? Maybe, but he’ll be 32 and anything but a sure thing next year. And he’s the ace.

David Huff – Decent walk rate, but hittable and doesn’t seem to have the ability to strike guys out (4.56 K/9). Fine as a #5.

Anthony Reyes – Has shown flashes of being a decent pitcher (2006 WS, 4.15 FIP in 2008) but has mostly sucked everywhere he’s been. He’s now 28, and has had only one season (Besides his cup of coffee in 2005) with a FIP below 5.25. He’s just not good. Fine for triple A.

Maybe drinking more would help you not be quite such an awful pitcher. Worked for David Wells.

Fausto Carmona – He had a great year in 2007. He had almost as much of a case for the Cy as C.C, but he hasn’t been the same pitcher since. He still gets ground balls (55.2% GB rate, although that is down nearly 10% from ‘07), but it’s the walks that have killed him. In 2007 he walked 2.55 per 9. That number has risen to 5.03 in 2009. You can’t succeed with that unless you are an extreme strikeout pitcher, and Carmona has never been that (5.58 K/9 for his career). Carmona either needs to give the bullpen another try, or else try the NL.. or perhaps a different line of employment.

Aaron Laffey – 1.04 K/BB ratio. That’s awful. So was the 1.62 WHIP from ‘09. He’ll be 25 next year. Maybe he’ll surprise me. I wouldn’t bet on it. He’s a #5/#6 at best.

Carlos Carrasco – The prize of the Cliff Lee deal, Carrasco sucked for the Indians as soon as he gave the big leagues a try. Given, he’s been rather overrated as a prospect for some time now, as he has tended to fluctuate between being borderline okay and good in the minors. In A+ ball in 2007 he had a 2.84 ERA (Albeit a 4.38 FIP to go with it). In 2008, he made 6 starts at AAA and had a 2.19 FIP with 46 K’s in 36.2 innings. He also gave up 8 unearned runs in that stint, while giving up more than a hit per inning. In 2009, he was solid at triple A, recording a 4.01 FIP with the Phillies’ triple A club, and a 2.92 with the Indians’. Will he finally have a good all around season next year? Probably not, but maybe in 2011.

Justin Masterson – The prize of the Victor Martinez deal, he had a 4.04 FIP between the Red Sox and Indians last year, with solid K numbers and bit too many walks. He has shown the ability to limit hits while posting good K/BB numbers throughout his minor league career. Bill James seems to think Masterson is legit, projecting him for 30 starts, a 4.00 ERA, and a K/BB of 2.04. He may very well be the #2 starter for the Tribe next year, so hopefully those projections come true, or are surpassed.

Jeremy Sowers – …had a .98 K/BB ratio in 123.1 innings. NON TENDER.

Cleveland needs to upgrade the rotation, badly. The minors don’t offer a lot of help, with Hector Rondon showing decent K/BB ratios in triple A, but appearing a tad hittable and (Apparently) requiring more seasoning before he’s ready. Adam Miller hasn’t had a full season since 2006. He’s good, or at least he was, so I suppose he could be a dark horse for the Indians in 2010, but it’s more likely he burns his throwing hand grilling hamburgers. Cleveland needs help outside the organization, but I don’t think they have the payroll room to add an impact starter from the free agent market. I say they trade one of their catchers (Not Santana) and one of their young question mark starters (I’d try Carmona) to the NL for some established pitching. Maybe a Joe Blanton or an Aaron Harang type.

Bullpen:

Jess Todd – A throw in to the Mark DeRosa deal, he had a 2.38 FIP for the Cardinals’ triple A affiliate. He struggled against major league hitters, allowing a .351 opponents average, but still managed a good strikeout rate (8.06). He’ll be 24 next year and looks like he’s developing into a solid middle reliever.

Jess Todd learns from the best (I actually have no idea who that is with him).

Tony Sipp – Sipp appeared to be a major success this past season, with a 2.90 ERA and 48 K’s in 40 innings. He posted great K/BB numbers in the minors, but gave up 25 walks in his 40 major league innings. That’s 5.63/9. That’s awful. His opponents BABIP was also just .253, bringing his FIP to a far less impressive 4.20. Expect some regression next year for the 26 year old.

Chris Perez – The centerpiece of the DeRosa deal (They did manage some good value for ol’ Mark), Perez was seen as the future closer for the Cardinals. Perhaps he can fulfill that role with the Indians. He gave up a rather obnoxious 8 home runs in his 57 innings in ‘09, but otherwise showed a lot of potential. After putting up ridiculous K numbers in the minors, Perez has now struck out 110 batters in 98.2 major league innings. He also allowed only 75 hits in that time. His walk rates have been a bit on the high side for both his minor league and major league career. What does this equate to? A solid middle reliever who hasn’t quite put it together yet. I look for a decent amount of improvement in 2010.

See, I can get stalked by old men, too, Jess Todd.

Jensen Lewis – Another Indians reliever with a great minor league career in terms of K rate, Lewis regressed this past year. But then most players on this team did. Lewis did survive as the team’s closer in 2008, and has put up decent K numbers in the majors (8.24). Last year, however, Lewis posted the highest walk rate of his career at 3.93. He’s still young, and still managed to limit hits, so I expect him to bounce back next year.

Kerry Wood – I don’t know. I really don’t. How can you really predict a Kerry Wood season? Honestly, he’s due for an injury at this point. If he stays healthy, expect better numbers than last year, when he at least continued to strike guys out and limit hits. But he’s always allowed a ton of walks and last year gave up 7 home runs, not great for a closer.

The bullpen is in okay shape. I would try Adam Miller there to see if he can catch lightning in a bottle and maybe close games at some point. If that works, and who knows, maybe it will, the Indians could have a dominant bullpen in ‘09.

Overall, this team strikes me as one of the most unlucky teams I’ve ever witnessed. They’ve had countless players fall off the face of the earth when they should have been in their primes (Hafner, Peralta, Rafael Perez, Carmona, Garko, Barfield) and have had a decent amount of players not develop like they should have (Marte, Jeremy Sowers, Miller, Beau Mills, among others). C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Franklin Guitierez and Casey Blake are all producing for new teams. I feel like GM Mark Shapiro has made all the right decisions, but this might be a case of awful managing. It’s quite possible that Eric Wedge absolutely sucked at motivating his players. Only when they had so much talent it was impossible to lose, were they able to contend. ‘04 ‘06, ‘08 were completely lost seasons where the Indians should have contended with the talent they had. Year to year, they had hardly any consistency from even their star players (Martinez was pretty damn bad in ‘08, Lee was terrible in ‘07, for example). I feel like Manny Acta might not be the right manager; he certainly sucked at motivating the Nationals this past year (After he departed, his successor, Jim Riggleman, proved that motivation was possible on that team). Acta should manage a team like the Mariners, or Royals, who are so stone age in their statistical analysis that a pro SABR manager would benefit them far more. The Indians make the right decisions on paper, generally, but something wasn’t right in the way they were managed, and I don’t envision much success for them next year, despite a decent offense and a young, flamethrowing bullpen. I don’t think Acta will motivate this team, and their rotation is pretty awful.

One of the bigger stories of last week was the Cincinnati Reds desire to cut payroll. It’s been reported that the Reds want to have a payroll less than the $73 million it was in 2009.

The easiest way to reduce payroll, of course, is to trade away some of your highest priced players. If the Reds were to trade some of their players, Aaron Harang, Brandon Phillips, Francisco Cordero, and Bronson Arroyo are the most likely trade candidates.

Arroyo plays the guitar just as well as he pitches

For the purposes of today’s post, let’s take a look at Arroyo. Here are the pros, the cons, and the teams who might be interested in trading for the Reds’ Guitar Hero.

PROS

Ever since Arroyo was traded to the Reds from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Wily Mo Pena (not one of Theo Epstein’s finer moments, though I didn’t mind the deal for the Red Sox at the time) in March of 2006, Arroyo has been one of the most durable pitchers in the game.

Arroyo over the last four years have averaged 34 starts a year and 218 innings pitched. Twice in that span he has led the National League in starts (2006 & 2008) and once led the league in innings pitched (2006).

In a game where starting pitchers average five innings and are constantly on the DL, Arroyo makes all his starts and goes deep into games.

Teams also have to like the fact that as Arroyo gets older, he is throwing more groundballs than ever. Arroyo’s groundball rate of 44.8 percent in 2009 was the highest of his career.

Lastly, Arroyo gained valuable postseason experience pitching for the Red Sox in 2003, 2004, and 2005. While he didn’t pitch well (7.41 ERA in 10 games) in those October’s, he usually does he best work late in the season.

Arroyo is 22-9 with a 3.22 ERA in his career during September and October.

Cons

While Arroyo is one of the most durable pitchers in the game, there is a lot of tread on his tires. Over the last three years, Arroyo has thrown 10,275 pitches. That ranks him sixth amongst all starters in baseball.

That’s a lot of pitches for a guy who is going to be 33-years-old in 2010.

And while Arroyo’s contract seems reasonable at one-year and $11 million with a club option for $11 million for 2011, we are in a down economy in baseball.

Normally, $11 million for a pitcher like Arroyo is not outlandish, but not only does a team have to assume his contract in a down economy, but they would also have to surrender a couple of prospects.

That’s a lot to ask a team for essentially a number three pitcher on a contending team.

Now that we have seen the pros and cons of Arroyo, let’s take a look at what teams could be possible trade partners.

New York Mets: Right now, the Mets rotation is Johan Santana and a bunch of question marks. The Mets can afford Arroyo’s contract and he would give the Mets a solid number two or three starter going into 2010.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland are all potential free agents leaving only Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw in the Dodgers’ rotation.

For a team who’s starters ranked 11th in the National League in innings pitched, Arroyo would be a welcomed site for Joe Torre.

New York Yankees: If the Yankees don’t feel Phil Hughes is ready to start and Andy Pettitte decides to retire, then Arroyo is a realistic option for the Yankees.

Minnesota Twins: I know this is a stretch because of Arroyo’s salary, but the Twins are looking to add a veteran starter or two this offseason. I would much rather have Arroyo than Carl Pavano, who they are looking to re-sign.

Seattle Mariners: The like the Mets, the Mariners have an ace in Felix Hernandez and then a bunch of question marks. With the Mariners great defense, Arroyo could thrive in the great northwest.

It would be a shame if the Reds had to trade Arroyo. With a great, young nucleus, the Reds are closer to contention than most people think.

I would say if the Reds were to shed salary, Arroyo is the most likely to go. His one-year contract and his performance to date would make him attractive to teams who need a starter.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Everybody is happy – the Mariners, Ken Griffey, Jr., fans in Seattle, and me…  Ken Griffey signed a one year deal to return to the Mariners in what could be his final hurrah.  The Kid turns 40 this month (!) and I might have to sneak off to Tampa to give him one last cheer.   Granted, he’s not going to be an impact player on the field, but few have his impact in the clubhouse or the community.  For a while, he was my favorite player in baseball and I am glad to have him around the game. [ESPN]

NL Gold Gloves…

Similar to the AL, there’s one arguably bad choice among the Gold Glove winners in the National League.  Certainly, there will be arguments, but otherwise the list is pretty solid.  Around the outfield, Matt Kemp, Shane Victorino and speedster Michael Bourn came home with trophies.  The infield features Ryan Zimmerman, Jimmy Rollins, Orlando Hudson, and Adrian Gonzalez.  The battery includes two Cards – Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.  [MLB]

That being said, the choice of Rollins is – like Jeter – one of fame and not of numbers.  Rollins has a very low range factor (3.96 chances per nine innings) and the best range of people playing around 100 games or so belonged to Brendan Ryan of St. Louis.  The guy who had surprisingly good stats was Miguel Tejada.  In my opinion, a healthy Troy Tulowitski is the best fielder of the bunch, so my vote would have gone there.

After years of Cactus, is Grapefruit in the Cubs Future?

Naples, Florida is in the running to host spring training for the Chicago Cubs, which would be a HUGE change for the north siders.  I mean, think of all the Chicagoans who retire to Arizona who will feel cheated!!!  Me – a Cubs fan living in Florida – would love it, but my hunch is that the Cubs are using this to get a better deal near their current home in AZ.  [MLB]

Other News…

Victor Zambrano’s mother was returned unharmed…  Apparently federal agents used a commando-styled attack to rescue the woman.  [ESPN]

Jamie McCourt denies having an affair and wants ownership of the Dodgers.  McCourt tried to get her old CEO job back and failed, and recently suggested that as a lady in a man’s world (law and business) she passed up plenty of opportunities for fun as a supportive wife…  [ESPN]

Brad Lidge’s surgery on his throwing elbow is considered a success and while he may miss a week or two of spring training, the hope is that he will close games on Opening Day and beyond for the Phillies.  [MLB]

Arizona’s Brandon Webb threw for the first time since his shoulder surgery.  First footballs, then baseballs from 60 feet.  Webb said he was encouraged by the progress.  [MLB]

Managerial Roller Coaster…

ESPN is reporting that Jim Riggleman will be announced as the new manager of the Washington Nationals.  Riggleman had the Nationals playing better down the stretch during his interim run last season.  [ESPN]

ESPN’s Gene Wojciechowski thinks it’s time for Mark McGuire to come clean about his past before he starts his future as hitting instructor for the Cards.  [ESPN]

Matt Williams will join Arizona and become a first base coach.  [SI]

Thanks for Playing!

Jason Varitek would rather take a pay cut and play for Boston than take his chances anywhere else.  So, ‘Tek signed his $3 million option and will return as Victor Martinez’s backup in 2010.  [ESPN]

Utility infielder Wilson Betemit is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Royals.  If so, he’s an insurance policy for the two players the Royals got from the White Sox in last week’s trade, Chris Getz and Josh Fields – oddly, two players Betemit backed up in Chicago…  [MLB]

Hot Stove News…

The Reds might deal Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, and Aaron Harang in this offseason.  Apparently, they have a cash flow problem…  [FanHouse]

Having locked in billions of dollars of salaries, the Yankees are rumored to be looking at acquiring more high-priced pitching.  Among those in the future could be Roy Halliday and John Lackey.  Seriously, if this happens we might as well cut the Yankees loose and call it good.  [SI]

Meanwhile, don’t rule out Lackey staying in Anaheim.  According to FoxSports, Anaheim will make a serious offer – and failing that, might go after Halliday, too.  [FoxSports]

Apparently, the Tigers are looking to trade Edwin Jackson following his solid season in Detroit.  According to FoxSports, it’s about the Benjamins…  [FoxSports]

Greg Zaun and Jason Schmidt filed for free agency yesterday, preceded by Eric Bruntlett one day earlier.  I wonder who will gladly pay Schmidt to ride the DL?  [MLB]

Former Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado is looking to play winter ball so people can see him play this winter prior to his signing a free agent contract.  Delgado missed most of 2009 with a hip injury.  [MLB]

Happy Birthday! For you Field of Dreams fans, Archibald “Moonlight” Graham was born on this day in 1877.

Others celebrating with cards, cake, or rememberances include:  Carl Mays (1891) – worthy of Hall of Fame inclusion based on his career but likely will never go because his pitch killed Ray Chapman in 1920, Joe Hoerner (1936), Ron Bryant (1947), Bruce Bochte (1950), Cub favorite Jody Davis (1956), Donnie Hill (1960), Greg Gagne (1961), Dave Otto (1964) – who I remember from his days pitching for Elk Grove High School back in Illinois, Slammin’ Sammy Sosa (1968), Homer Bush (1972), Aaron Heilman.  Wow – that’s a lot of former Cubs on this list…

MLBTradeRumors.com has a post up today about the potential 2011 MLB free agent market. Obviously depending on what happens this off-season and during next season, the free agent class could change. The position department is kind of weak, but the starting pitching is very interesting.

Among the position players, the 2011 free agent class is highlighted by C Joe Mauer, 1B Carlos Pena and Derek Lee, SS Derek Jeter, 3B Aramis Ramirez (Player Option) and OF Adam Dunn. I doubt Jeter is going anywhere and I see the club options of 1B Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, SS Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, and OF Brad Hawpe being picked up.

Closers Huston Street and Mariano Rivera will be available, and Brian Fuentes has a vesting option. Of course there are a lot of relievers on the market as there usually is a decent lot available every year.

The Starting pitchers available is where it gets good. Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Joe Blanton, Ted Lilly, Kevin Millwood, Javier Vasquez, and Jorge De La Rosa. Reds’ pitchers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo have club options which I think will be declined. Matt Cain (vesting option), Jeff Francis and Chris Young (club options) most likely will be staying with their respective teams.

2011 should be interesting. I can definitely see record breaking contracts for Joe Mauer and possibly Roy Halladay, though not too many years for Halladay.

Saturday night was a special night for our Cincinnati Reds — they managed to clinch their ninth consecutive non-winning (a small-market-team’s way of saying “losing”) season.

Can the Reds top last year’s record of 74-88?  Boy, that would be swell!  They have 12 more games to do it.

Given the fact that the Reds are, once again, not in the playoff hunt it’s probably not very comforting to hear that — as far as next season is concerned — Walt Jocketty is likely to stick with the current roster. 

In other words:

Don’t expect the Reds to be very active in the off-season. Again.

Tell me, does this roster give you any hope that the Reds can compete in 2010? 

C: Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hannigan
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Paul Jannish
3B: Scott Rolen
LF: Willy Patterson/Wladimir Balentien/Chris Dickerson/Laynce Nix
CF: Drew Stubbs
RF: Jay Bruce/Jonny Gomes/Darnell McDonald/Winner of Fox Sports Ohio’s ”Play Outfield for the Cincinnati Reds in 2010″ contest

P1: Aaron Harang
P2: Bronson Arroyo
P3: Homer Bailey
P4: Johnny Cueto
P5: Kip Wells? Seriously? Matt Maloney?

This roster is designed to instill fear into the hearts of man.  What the Reds failed to realize is that it’s supposed to instill fear in the hearts of the National League, not Cincinnati Reds fans.

If this roster somehow does give you hope, tell me why. 

If your hope is based off what this roster has done in September, against piss-poor teams playing for nothing but pride, post your thoughts somewhere else. 

And if your hope is caused by a 12-pack of Miller High Life, please wait until tomorrow to post your thoughts.

Finally, it appears that Milton Bradley and Marty Brennaman have more in common than just their initials.

For the past several days, life has been quite hectic. By tomorrow morning, life will be hectic like I’ve never experienced before.

I’m currently sitting in a hospital room with my wife as she is set to deliver our first child tomorrow morning. So I consider my umpteenth excuse for not writing a pretty darn good one.

Anxiously awaiting father or not, there hasn’t been a whole lot to write about concerning the Reds.

They did manage to string together five consecutive wins, including a sweep of the faltering Brewers.

They also managed to play five extra-inning games in their last 12 contests. I have scored only three games this season from the comfort of my living room (or the comfort of a hospital room), and all three have gone to extras. This has given me a new found respect for the official scorers who have to juggle all the pitching changes, double switches, and other scoring nuances.

Quick thoughts

I’m still not the biggest fan of the Scott Rolen trade, especially in light of the fact that they traded a promising young starter knowing full well they would be without Edinson Volquez for the majority of 2010. Even though I had become something of an Edwin apologist, I have to admit that Rolen, when healthy, does legitimize the lineup a little more. Also, no one can argue that he can  make plays at third base that Edwin can only dream of. If (and that’s a big IF) Rolen can stay healthy for the majority of 2010, he will certainly be a major contributer.

Bronson Arroyo has pitched himself back to respectability and hopefully back to quality trade value. I would be highly surprised if the Reds don’t move Arroyo, Harang, or Cordero. They almost have to trade at least one of them and I wouldn’t be shocked to see all of them or a combination dealt away.

Apparently, the Reds are going to bring back Johnny Cueto in the next week or so. My only question: why? What is the point in rushing him back at this point in the season? I have no idea how severe his injury was, but I would be careful with a guy who has thrown a ton of innings this year. I would be tempted to shut him down for the rest of this season and put him in winter ball when he goes home.

I know Drew Stubbs has been a AAA stud, but I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a guy strike out and the pace he does. Please don’t get me wrong; I’m not getting down on him, I’m just making a thought.

If the Cincinnati Reds want to get people like me excited about next season, they should give Brandon Phillips a few starts at shortstop. I like Paul Janish, but I’ve seen the back of his baseball card. Were Janish on a team that could hide his offense, he could be an every day starter. There’s no doubt the guy can pick it. With that being said,  I wouldn’t be too upset were he our starting shortstop next year.

The Reds brass need to have the nuts to admit when they’ve royally screwed up. They need to release Willy Taveras and eat the stupid contract they gave him.

I’m not sure when I’ll be able to post again, but I’ll try to let you know how my new little Reds fan is doing.

I imagine the hardest part about being a Major League manager (other than the cavities from all that free bubble gum) is answering the same questions every night.

The answers are easy when you’re winning, but when you’re losing you have to say things like:

“Micah was all right except for a couple pitches. He threw the ball fair, but the home runs hurt.”

– Dusty Baker on Micah Owings’ five run/five inning outing Friday night

Baker says stuff like that all the time — maybe because he has to — but it still doesn’t make any sense to me. You either pitch/play well or you don’t. There’s no in between. I don’t care if you pitched four innings of perfect ball if you gave up seven runs in the 5th inning.

On Saturday, Aaron Harang found a sure-fire way to not get traded this season: his appendix gave out on him, resulting in an emergency appendectomy.  He’s most likely done for the season, reducing the Reds’ daily starting-lineup payroll to $18.72.

Then Chris Dickerson hurt his ankle, most likely sending him to the DL.  Reducing the Reds’ daily starting-lineup payroll even further to $18.70.

Ryan Hannigan joined in the fun by leaving Sunday’s game, officially making the Reds’ daily starting-lineup payroll so low that they no longer have to pay taxes.  Crazy.

Homer Bailey had his best outing of the year on Sunday.  Against the Pirates.  I suppose I’ll count it.

My friend Wardo — a lifelong Red Sox fan (at least he’s not a Yankees fan), Beatles guru, and all around good guy — sent me this link (you have to login to view it — those Commie bastards).

It basically says what we already know:

The mathematical probability of the Reds’ (or sucky teams the like) clawing back into the pennant race this season is as astronomically low as Dusty Baker’s toothpick supply in September.

I’m reminded that there are about 40 games left this season, and I need to pretend to care about all of them most of them some of them a few of them.

It says something when the highlight of my sports week was watching Chad Ochocinco kick an extra point. In a pre-season game. That I recorded the day after it happened. And watched two days later.

John Smoltz’s career has life after beating San Diego Sunday.  Smoltz threw five shutout innings and fanned nine batters.  Maybe the AL is tougher than the NL – but it certainly helps to face a punchless San Diego team, too.  [MLB/SI]

For the second time in history (according to STATS, Inc, that’s who), Eric Bruntlett ended a game by himself – recording an unassisted triple play to help Brad Lidge avoid another blown save and give Pedro Martinez a win over his former team, the Mets.  The score stood 9 – 7 after a run scoring single by Daniel Murphy.  Murphy and Luis Castillo, who was on second, attempted a double steal when Jeff Francouer launched a Lidge pitch back up the middle where Bruntlett was moving…  Bruntlett caught the liner, stepped on second, and tagged Murphy.  [MLB/SI]

Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez will be more careful next time – he stabbed himself in the left hand with a falling steak knife, requiring a single stitch but keeping him out of the lineup for the next couple of days.  [SI]

Meanwhile, the Rockies have come to terms with free agent Jason Giambi, most recently released by the Oakland As.  He’d be a nice bench option, that’s for certain.  [ESPN]

Moving to the Rockies rotation, the pitching staff took a big hit when Aaron Cook hit the DL with a sore shoulder.  Cook had to leave Friday’s start with a strain and an MRI is scheduled for Monday.  If the Rockies have to use Adam Eaton down the stretch, pencil in San Francisco or the Dodgers as the Wild Card team in the NL.   Josh Fogg is the other option (not appreciably better), and Matt Herges got the call from AAA Colorado Springs to join the roster. [FoxSports]

Reds starter Aaron Harang’s season came to an end thanks to emergency appendectomy surgery.  He’ll see restricted activity for about three weeks before he can do anything physical in nature.  According to SI, Harang is the ninth player to head to the DL for Cincinnati, and the seventh to require surgery – which is an amazing number, really.  Fortunately, Scott Rolen came off the DL – but he can’t pitch.  [SI]

Boston may have claimed Billy Wagner off the waiver wire (the Mets haven’t decided whether to allow the claim, work a deal, or pull him back), but apparently the bullpen wouldn’t have done it.  Both Jonathon Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen weren’t excited about it when asked by WEEI radio earlier this weekend.  [ESPN]

FoxSports reported that David Eckstein will remain in San Diego next year and signed a contract extension for 2010…  He’s not really a championship level producer anymore, but he’s an extra coach for a young team and Eckstein does have a history of being on winning teams.  [FoxSports]

Here’s a position that won’t get much of an argument… FoxSports Jon Paul Morosi makes his case that Ichiro Suzuki will one day enter the Hall of Fame.   His take on it is mostly “Well, he has more hits than anybody, and Ken Griffey says he’s a Hall of Famer…”  Let’s look at it more subjectively.  Assuming he finishes the season and gets 16 more hits in the last 40 games or so – meaning he won’t get injured or suddenly freeze at the plate – Ichiro will have nine straight seasons of 200 hits, more than 2000 in his career, and his fourth season batting at least .350.  Dusting off a 1986 Bill James Baseball Abstract, his Hall of Fame calculator shows that Ichiro has  collected nearly 200 points of accomplishments that Hall of Fame voters tend to consider when voting for someone – which makes him, well, overqualified (the gray area is from 70 – 130; beyond that is pretty much guaranteed in, unless you are Pete Rose or Barry Bonds).  Then, you add that he was the first Japanese position player and remains one of the most skilled outfielders and hitters – he certainly qualifies as both famous and great.   Ichiro may wind up with more professional hits than Pete Rose when it’s all over – he could have 4500 hits if you count his days in Japan.

Hurry Back! Alfonso Soriano continues to miss games with a sore knee.  Gee – I thought it was his poor batting.  (Sorry – Angry Cub Fan in me typing that one…)  Marlins reliever Brendan Donnelly hits the DL with a calf strain.  I watched the play – I’m not sure what he did, but if he can’t field a grounder without getting hurt, he needs to step aside.  Phillies infielder Greg Dobbs also has a strained calf.  Cardinal starter Kyle Lohse just came off the DL – he heads back with a strained groin (hopefully his own).

Welcome Back! Miguel Cairo was called up by the Phillies to take Dobbs’ spot.  Did you see that Armando Benitez was signed by Houston?  He heads to Round Rock to see if he can still pitch.    Jason Grilli returned to Texas from the DL.  Seattle is giving one more shot to former Marlin Randy Messenger.  I can answer this for you – this Messenger has already been shot.

Pennant Chances:  Now that the season has entered its final quarter, let’s pronounce some races over…

Nobody is catching the Phillies or Cards.  The Yankees would have a significant collapse if they were to lose now, as would the Angels.  Even though it’s closer than before, I have faith in the Dodgers – but give Colorado a 15% chance to win, and San Francisco 10%.  The NL Wild Card is too close to call, but it’s going to be one of the teams from the West.  If someone were to surprise, it’s going to be Atlanta because they suddenly have a healthy pitching staff – but it’s getting late to put up a fight.  I’d give them a 15% chance of pulling it off.  The closest race is Detroit and Chicago in the AL Central, and I am relatively confident it will be Detroit by a nose because Chicago plays too sloppily to win.  Minnesota doesn’t have a fight in them this season thanks to a failing rotation.  The AL Wild Card will be the best race because Texas is good enough to win and Boston is just crazy enough to blow it right now.  I know – I picked Boston to win it all, but the last three weeks have been disastrous and I don’t see how they will get out of it.  I give Tampa a 15% chance of surprising somebody.

I go on vacation for one week and return to find a lot of changes in Reds nation. Unfortunately, losing is not one of them.

David Weathers to the Brew Crew?

Gonzo to the Bo Sox??

Harang and Arroyo clear waivers??? (Not really a surprise.)

Scott Rolen on the DL??? (Again, not really a surprise.)

Amazing.

What I found funny about each of the two trades was Walt Jocketty’s comments. Walt made it sound as though we were doing these two a favor by trading them to contenders. 

Speaking of favors, Walt could do everyone a huge favor by releasing Willy Taveras and just eating that mistake of a contract; but that’s neither here nor there.

Perhaps trading Stormy to the Brewers was a favor to him and the Brewers. It won’t be a favor to Bob Uecker’s blood pressure, that’s for sure.

Trading Gonzo to the Red Sox was a definitely a favor to him, but more like a cannonball shot to the side of the Red Sox’ vessel. They say they’ve had problems at short stop this season, but I’m not sure this is the band-aid they’re looking for.

Anyway, hopefully there’s a sucker out there willing to take a flier on the likes of Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang. I honestly hate writing that about Harang because I like the guy a lot, but the Reds Community Fund is only a charitable side operation of the organization. 

Last but not least, I can’t help but wonder how many times we’re going to have to read the words: “Rolen to the DL.” Granted, this time it was a result of a nasty pitch he took to the head against the Rockies – a fluke-type of injury. 

Is anyone else as ready for September call-ups as I am?

I’m not sure I buy this, but okay.  The Toronto Blue Jays were disappointed by Alex Rios’ production on the heels of a huge contract signing in 2008 – and placed him on waivers.  The White Sox put in a claim…  So, the Blue Jays could either (a) recall Rios and make a trade offer or just keep him, or (b) let the White Sox keep him and absorb his salary.  The Jays chose (b).  Sure it’s a cash savings, but do they really have a replacement for him?  Rios was the best centerfielder on the team – but they insisted on playing the older (and slower, and more injury prone) Vernon Wells out there.  And, the Jays get NOTHING.  No prospects, no short term help.  A year ago, this team should have been in the playoffs.  Now, Roy Halliday was placed on the trading block, A.J. Burnett left as a free agent, B.J. Ryan wasn’t allowed to work through his issues, and Alex Rios is gone.

For the White Sox, who haven’t really had a solid centerfielder all season, they get an immediate upgrade defensively and offensively (albeit for about $60 million over the next six seasons) and if Rios puts it together, they could have an impact player between elder statesman Jermaine Dye and the injured but exciting Carlos Quentin.  And all they had to do was claim a guy off of waivers?

Should I be worried that this is just a precedent and other teams wishing to dump salary will no longer trade for prospects but just drop the player and keep the cash?   Look out Texas, San Diego, and others.  If you don’t win, your players may not get traded – they may just get dumped.

Two Cubs horses are making doctor visits…  Carlos Zambrano had an epidural treatment to relieve pain in his back – sources saying its the third time (at least) that this has happened this season.  And now comes word that Aramis Ramirez’s left shoulder is ailing again and needs a doctor visit - the same shoulder he separated diving for a liner earlier in the season causing him to miss two months of the season.  [MLB/ESPN]

And it doesn’t get any better.  The same night the Cubs were clocked by the Rockies (and Troy Tulowitski’s seven RBI, five hit – cycle even – game last night), starter Tom Gorzelanny was hit by a grounder in the second inning and had to leave the game.  He should make his (well, Zambrano’s) next start.  [MLB]

Two years ago, he was the toast of the 2007 rookie crop.  Last year, he signed a five year extension.  In 2009, with a batting average hovering around .180 with little power and no confidence, Diamondback centerfielder Chris Young heads to AAA to find his swagger.  Gerrardo Parra will likely get the bulk of the playing time in center for Arizona.  [FoxSports]

The Phillies are going to tempt fate, move Jamie Moyer to the bullpen, and give a start Wednesday to Pedro Martinez.  For a couple of innings this might be fun.  After that, who knows…  Personally, I don’t want to see Pedro lose his 100th decision.  [FoxSports]

Dodger second sacker Orlando Hudson strained a groin when he had to quickly change directions on a deflected grounder Monday night and will likely miss at least Tuesday’s game while he heals.  So, he’s day-to-day until we hear otherwise…  [MLB]

Chad Billingsley’s hamstring will keep the Dodger ace from making his start this week, and if he can’t go next Monday will head to the DL.  [SI]

Another player leaving early with an injury is Reds starter Johnny Cueto, who will have his left hip flexor examined.  Cueto was running to first on a grounder when he limped and quit running about 45 feet down the line.  The Reds hurler has been off his game for a month, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a DL stint to rest up and comes back in September.  [MLB]

The Cards got some bad news – Todd Wellemeyer’s elbow was sore following a bullpen session and may miss his next start.  [SI]

And, two other pitchers may get moved soon - both Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang have cleared waivers, according to FoxSports.  Any takers out there?  I mean, a two month loan for a couple of guys who might be motivated to finish strong…  Milwaukee?  Houston?  Los Angeles?  Chicago?

Welcome Back!  Jared Burton (Reds), Chad Durbin (Phils) return from the DL.  Arizona signed Daniel Cabrera to a minor league deal.  I used to love watching Cabrera – big fastball and no idea what he was doing out there.  Maybe he’ll figure it out here – but I doubt it.  I’ll still watch.

Hurry Back!  Rodrigo Lopez got lit up by the Marlins, so the Phillies sent Lopez to AAA.

While Chris Sabo’s Goggles spent the last three days melting at Lollapalooza, the Reds quietly took 2-of-3 against the San Francisco Giants.   Good for them.

And they traded David Weathers to Milwaukee! 

Actually, I hear he wasn’t actually traded, he was just locked in a broom closet at Miller Park with a “Take me. Please!” Post-It note stuck to his forehead.  Apparently the Brewers took the bait.

Suckers.

It was nice to see Aaron Harang win his first game since the Clinton administration, and that the Scott Rolen trade is paying off in spades. 

I know, not Rolen’s fault, but how are the Reds going to WIN NOW if Rolen isn’t playing?  This team has a very small window of opportunity left and the time to strike is now!

Okay, not really.