Bank of America’s tail-risk warning may indeed be precisely the impetus needed for another Abu Dhabi (the emirate of last resort?) -financed bailout, though there is some question as to whether the technical defaults of two state-owned firms–Dubai World, an investment firm, and Nakheel, a real-estate subsidiary of Dubai World–necessarily imply the defacto default of the sovereign emirate as a whole in the first place. In fact, argues Gavan Nolan, a research analyst at Markit Group, a financial information services company:

“It should be made clear that the Dubai sovereign is not in any immediate danger of a default. The standstill, if it is mandatory, may constitute a technical default on Nakheel and Dubai World. However, the Dubai government did not make an explicit guarantee on the companies’ debt, and are under no legal obligation to honour the debt. This is clearly the position Dubai’s wealthy sister emirate Abu Dhabi favors. Its actions this week seem to indicate that, while it will support the sovereign, its backing is conditional. The funds are available – Abu Dhabi has immense oil resources and the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. Indeed, Dubai has already been advanced funds by Abu Dhabi. But it was quite clear that Nakheel and the rest of Dubai World will not be allowed to benefit from the largesse.”

The exact point was trumpeted by Saud Masud, a Dubai-based real estate analyst, in a comment made to Bloomberg:

“Abu Dhabi and Dubai have decided to seek to bolster long-term confidence in the market by forcing weaker parts of government businesses to take responsibility for bad decisions and could involve defaults at some Dubai firms, Masud said.”

Less debatable, however, is the absurdity of the hitherto resulting regional contagion, which immediately drove up the cost of protecting emerging-market sovereign debt against default. Default swap contracts on Abu Dhabi rose 23 basis points to 183, Qatar climbed 17 to 131, Malaysia was up 11 at 104, Saudi Arabia climbed 18 to 108, while Bahrain rose 22.5 to 217. Having said that, one could buy the theory that the Dubai announcement is merely the requisite impetus whereby the ‘risk rally’–which having essentially been on since March seemed destined to eventually taper–unwinds. If the rally does unwind, moreover, frontier and emerging markets, which represent the tail end of the risk curve, would be the first to feel it. Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius, for example, said on Friday that Dubai’s attempt to reschedule debt could indeed cause a “correction” in emerging markets.

Yet even a market correction per se should not correlate with a higher sovereign default risk–this is where the current, broad brushstroke of contagion should be arbitraged. Abu Dhabi and Qatar, for instance, remain as resource and reserve rich as ever, objectively speaking. But fund managers clamoring to keep in tact whatever YTD returns they have may be hesitant to brashly step in front of the bus so quickly–suggesting the sudden and drastic point spike may even have some more legs to it. Nevertheless, ultimately, as Silk Invest’s Baldwin Berges reminded investors on Friday, “the major driving forces for the GCC region’s economy are still intact: high reserves, low taxes (competitive advantage) and geographic location. It’s all about perspective, investor sentiment and above all valuation. The medium term investor could be looking at a great opportunity here.” Nolan concurs:

“The sovereign CDS market sometimes has a habit of conflating geographical proximity with economic similarity (eastern Europe earlier this year springs to mind). Unlike Dubai, the countries mentioned above have significant natural resources and their public finances are in better shape. To an extent this has been reflected in CDS spreads for some time (see chart above). It seems that Dubai is something of a special case and its problems are not necessarily found elsewhere.”

Das Wetter ist auch heute morgen wieder recht trübe, deshalb fällt der Abschied aus KL auch leichter. Nachdem ich nun alle Bilder, die ich online stellen wollte, hochgeladen habe, geht es nach dem Frühstück daran den Koffer entgültig zu packen.

Wir werden hier gegen 15:30 Uhr auschecken und mit Zul zum Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) fahren. Der Flug EY411 von KL nach Abu Dhabi geht zwar erst um 20:45, mit Boardingbeginn um 20:00, aber da wir wegen des Haddsch mit deutlich mehr Flugbewegungen rechnen, dürften die zeitlichen Reserven erforderlich sein. Wenn alles pünktlich klappt, sollten wir auch in Abu Dhabi keine Probleme haben, wo wir um 00:05 Uhr ankommen, um 01:05 an Bord von EY1 gehen und dann um 02:05 gen Frankfurt starten sollen. Geplante Landung in Frankfurt um 06:20 Uhr. Die gebuchte Weiterfahrt mit dem ICE 925 um 7:37 Uhr nach Nürnberg dürfte da zeitlich etwas optimistisch gewählt sein, aber so sind Buchungscomputer nun einmal. Vermutlich wird es dann also ein Zug später werden, danach fährt dann aber mal erstmal für 1,5 Stunden kein Zug in die Richtung mehr. Interessantes Taktungsschema bei der DB.

Dünyanın ultra lüks yatırım merkezi Dubai 59 milyar dolarlık borç batağında…
Projelendirdiği ultra lüks yatırımlarla dünyanın yeni çekim merkezi olan Dubai’de iflas paniği yaşanıyor. Körfez bölgesinin en gözde finans merkezi Dubai’de devlete ait en büyük yatırım şirketlerinden Dubai World’ün piyasaya olan 59 milyar dolar borcunu ödeyemeyeceğini açıklaması dünya finans piyasalarına bomba gibi düştü. Projeye finans sağlayan Avrupalı bankaların hisseleri inişte. Arjantin’in 2001’de yaşadığı 100 milyar dolarlık iflasın ardından en büyük iflas tehlikesiyle karşı karşıya kalan Dubai, Körfez bölgesi ve Arap ülkelerine karşı da güvensizlik uyandırdı. Önemli uluslararası derecelendirme kuruluşları not düşürdü.

70 DEV ALACAKLI KAPIDA

Borçlarını ödeyebilmek için alacaklılarından Mayıs 2010’a kadar 6 ay erteleme isteyen Dubai World’ün 70 civarında alacaklısı var. Bunlar arasında en başta Abu Dhabi Ticari Bankası geliyor. Ertelenmesi istenen borcun yaklaşık 40 milyar doları da Avrupa bankalarına ait. Bu bankalar arasında da Credit Suisse, HSBC, Barclays, Llyods ve Royal Bank of Scotland bulunuyor. Dubai yönetimi borç erteleme açıklamasının ardından uluslararası vergi ve danışmanlık şirketi Deloitte’a başvurarak Dubai World’ün yeniden yapılandırılmasını istedi.

PİYASAYA BORÇ 80 MİLYAR DOLAR

Fazla petrol geliri bulunmayan Dubai, hızlı büyümesini ve büyük inşaat projelerini finanse etmek için sermaye piyasalarına bağlı durumda. Son durumu yorumlayan İngiliz Matrix Group yöneticisi Norval Loftus, “Dubai, yatırımcıların en nefret ettiği duruma düştü” açıklamasını yaptı. Dubai’nin 80 milyar dolarlık borcunun 59.3 milyar doları Dubai World’den geliyor. Şirketin elinde 2008 sonu itibariyle 99.6 milyar dolarlık da varlık bulunuyor. Dubai’nin gelecek ay 4.3 milyar dolar ve ocakta da 4.9 milyar dolar borç ödemesi bulunuyordu.

EL MAKTUM’UN ÜLKESİ

Dubai Şeyhi Muhammed bin Raşid el Maktum (62), turizm ve finans merkezi haline getirmek için çalıştığı Dubai’yi Palmiye Adası, Burj el Arab Oteli ve dünyanın en uzun binası 800 metrelik Burj Dubai kulesi gibi iddialı projelerle meşhur etti.
ABD ekonomi dergisi Forbes’un sıralamasına göre, 12 milyar dolarlık kişisel servetiyle dünyanın en zengin 5. kraliyet mensubu. Abu Dhabi şeyhi el Nahyan ise 18 milyar dolarlık servetiyle en zengin 3. asil. El Maktum’un Hind bint Maktum bin Juma el Maktum ile Haya bint el Hüseyin adlı iki eşi bulunuyor. Haya bint el Hüseyin, Ürdün Kralı Abdullah’ın da kardeşi. Sekizi erkek, 11’i kız 19 çocuğu bulunan el Maktum çocuklarını spora teşvik ediyor. Kızı Maitha, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri tekvando milli takımında. Dünyanın en fazla yarış atına sahip ismi olarak bilinen el Maktum’un 68 atı İstanbul dahil olmak üzere birçok kentte koşuyor ve ödüller kazanıyor. El Maktum’un Japonya, Avustralya ve ABD’nin aralarında olduğu 6 ülkede haraları bulunuyor.
El Maktum, ülkedeki yatırımları gerçekleştiren Dubai Holding’in yüzde 99.67 hissesine sahip. Ülkesinde geleneksel kıyafetlerle dolaşmayı tercih eden el Maktum, özellikle at yarışları için İngiltere’ye gittiğinde ise bir İngiliz centilmeni gibi giyiniyor.

ÜNLÜLERİN YATIRIM MERKEZİ

Dubai’nin hızlı büyümesinde büyük rolü bulunan Dubai World, liman işletmeleri ve dünya çapında inşaat projelerine sahip. Dubai World’e ait inşaat şirketi Nakheel, halen yapımı devam eden çok iddialı ‘Palmiye Adası’ (Palm Jumeirah) projesinin sahibi. Palmiye Adası’ndan ev aldığı bilinen Brad Pitt ve eşi Angelina Jolie ile David Beckham gibi ünlülerin durma tehlikesi yaşayan Dubai projelerinden etkileneceği belirtiliyor.

“KUSURSUZ FIRTINA”

Torontolu RBC Capital Markets yöneticisi Nick Chamie, “Dubai, küresel likidite bolluğunun en büyük göstergesiydi. Bu olaydan sonra dünya çapında, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde iflaslar görülmeye başlanabilir” yorumunda bulundu. Nakheel’in ayakta
kalması için Dubai’nin şirkete çok büyük para enjekte etmesi gerektiğini belirten Commerzbank stratejisti Luis Costa ise, “Şu andaki şartlar kusursuz fırtına” dedi. İsviçre’nin en büyük bankası UBS, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri’nin Nakheel’in iflasını önleyeceğine inandıklarını açıkladı.(Milliyet)

Fiado – do árabe: gay, homossexual.

Acho engraçado as frases sobre vender fiado que pequenos estabelecimentos criam e grudam em placas e  adesivos perto dos seus caixas.

Tem umas boas…
“Fiado só para maiores de 90 anos acompanhado pelos pais”.
“Fiado é igual barba, senão cortar só cresce”.
“Fiado só para japonês mendigo”.
E por aí vai…

Por que será que essas frases também não estão em plaquinhas douradas  em cima de grandes mesas redondas de mogno ao lado de diretores, executivos, banqueiros e cedentes de crédito financeiro para outras empresas?
Será que é porque soa vulgar?
Os caras do mercado financeiro são uns puta de uns mau humorados?
Ou porque quem solicita um crédito alto geralmente tem um patrimônio e uma reputação a zelar e, com certeza, irá honrar seus compromissos?
Bom, pode ser tudo isso junto e misturado.
Não é pela inexistência da política do fiado nestas corporações que bancos e financeiras deixam de emprestar dinheiro ou prestar serviços para terceiros e esperar  um tempo para serem ressarcidos.   Bullshit! Merda de boi!
O crédito financeiro é igual ao vírus do HIV na Castro Street, em San Francisco: corre solto na veia!
Correu solto no financiamento do vestido de odalisca da princesinha árabe, Dubai.
A mais promissora e ocidental das ensolaradas cidades árabes – mais promissora que o Michael Phelps antes das Olimpíadas, mais ocidental que o Big Mac e a Coca-Cola juntos.
A euforia foi tanta que, boa parte dos guindastes mundiais viajou para Dubai para erguer seus nababescos e suntuosos prédios, hotéis e palacetes.  Celebridades e famosos de Hollywood e do mundo todo compraram terrenos e mais terrenos por lá.
O Jorge, da dupla Jorge e Matheus comprou um. Lindo!
O oásis de cristal, jóias e pedras preciosas estava sendo construído!
O destino preferido de estrangeiros, não só de férias – mas também de trabalho passou a ser a jóia dos Emirados Árabes.
Gente do mundo inteiro se conheceu, fez amizade e se relacionou nos gigantescos campos de construção e em serviços de hotéis e empresas de Dubai.
Assim como várias mulheres ficaram grávidas depois do festival de Woodstock, o mesmo aconteceu depois das grandes construções e levas de trabalhadores a Dubai.
O termo “filho de Woodstock”, designado para alguém que foi concebido na lisérgica temporada de 69, ganhou uma nova versão – “filho de Dubai”, ou, o  rebento que foi gerado por pais de nacionalidades diferentes em provavelmente algum quartinho apertado e quente da área de serviço de um hotel de luxo. Tipo: o mestre de obras Jamal de Trinidad e Tobago com a recepcionista búlgara Slovena.
E, quando no meio de toda essa neve, caindo aonde faz 45ºC, os boletos de cobrança começam a chegar e o petróleo não é suficiente para pagar as dívidas?
O turismo é grande, mas não tão grande ao ponto de quitar compromissos bilionários?
O frenesi é alto, mas baixo e inicial perto das gigantescas cifras que ostentam as polpudas cartas de cobrança.
O amigo vizinho Abu Dhabi, bem mais rico em petróleo, já disse que não vai e nem pode ajudar com muito.
Tem preocupações mais sérias: a caça pelas mais belas virgens do mundo para o seu sultão. Cuidado: sua irmãzinha pode ser uma!
E agora Alá?
As contas venceram e boa parte das construções não estão nem na metade!
O hipódromo de corrida de camelos, a kebaberia de esmeraldas e a sauna com essência de damasco nem sequer foram construídos!
Burlar algumas leis do Islamismo como não bater punheta em dias santos ou não beber álcool até que é fácil, difícil será burlar o crivo dos credores dos bancos internacionais!
Grande parte dos funcionários já deixou seus postos de trabalho e pegaram o primeiro vôo de volta para casa, as obras estão paradas e não tem mais dinheiro e óleo para fazer nada!
Será que isso é temporário ou esse é o fim de Dubai?
Será uma cidade de contos de fadas quebrada e construída pela metade?

E o Burj Al Arab, aquele hotel louquíssimo em formato de barco, construído no meio do deserto??????????

Não sei o que vai acontecer, para mim a extraordinária Dubai ainda parece ser surreal, como uma miragem no meio do deserto!

Jorge e Matheus live at Dubai!!!

Endlich gibt es ein paar Details, welche deutsche Banken und zu wieviel im Dubai-SankastenPonzi investiert sind. Soviel vorab, keine Überraschungen, DB, KFW, West LB:

(HT Zero Hedge)

Die nächste Frage ist, ist Griechenland das Dubai Europas? In Abu Dhabi leckt man sich jetzt schon die Finger, denn Dubai class assets sind für einen Appel und Ei zu bekommen. Die Daumenschrauben sind schon bereitgelegt.

From WSJ comes this report:

The cost of insuring Dubai’s sovereign debt against default surged for the third day in a row as the fallout from Dubai World’s restructuring announcement continues to fuel a flight from risk.

It now costs $664,000 to insure $10 million of Dubai sovereign debt against default for five years, up from $541,000 at Thursday’s New York close, according to data provider CMA. The cost of insuring the emirate’s sovereign debt has now more than doubled since Dubai World’s announcement Wednesday that it was seeking a six-month “standstill” on its debts with all lenders.

Dubai is one of the seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates. The state-controlled conglomerate is the largest corporate entity in Dubai, with interests in real-estate and ports.

The news also continues to affect other countries in the Middle East, in particular neighboring Abu Dhabi, which has also seen the cost of insuring its sovereign debt shoot up. It now costs $183,000 to insure $10 million of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign debt against default for five years, up from $160,000 at Thursday’s New York close.

“The credibility of the region and the way business is conducted there [has] been shattered, and the view that “the Ruler will always pay up”–that state-owned enterprises are effectively guaranteed by their sovereign paymasters–will no longer be taken as a given,” said Suki Mann, deputy head of credit research at Societe Generale SA.

It is important that the situation is clarified rapidly, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better, Mr. Mann said.

… and meanwhile from India this report from an unlikely source for business news, DNA:

Reacting cautiously to Dubai debt crisis, markets today recovered from day’s steep losses but still ended lower by over 220 points, with investors and economists and all foreseeing India perhaps gaining on the latest unravelling in the financial world.

Continuing its overnight sharp losses, the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex opened lower and in a knee-jerk reaction to Dubai debt repayment crisis further posted a sharp over 600-point losses on aggressive selling, primarily in realty and banking counters.

However, the trend was quickly reversed after the government said the crisis should not have any major impact on factors like employment and exports, which boosted the investor confidence. The Reserve Bank also said developments and the extent of the problem need to be studied which also boosted the confidence.
…
Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan ended sharply lower by between 1.10 per cent to 4.84 per cent. The broader 50-share Nifty of the National Stock Exchange dropped further by 63.80 points or 1.27 per cent to close at 4,941.75 from its last close.

Google informs us that BSE also stands for Bovine spongiform encephalopathy, aka mad cow disease.

Sebastian Vettel – Piede pesante. Secondo tempo in qualifica con una monoposto più pesante del compagno di squadra. Primo stint di gara controllando il ritmo di Hamilton più leggero di lui.
Seconda parte di gara nella quale ha dato un secondo al giro a Webber, in quel momento secondo.
Che dire, se avesse corso cosi per tutto l’anno, avrebbe vinto il mondiale un paio di mesi fa.

Mark Webber – Ruvido. Non ha nelle corde l’exploit o il colpo di genio che può avere Vettel, ma riesce quasi sempre a fare il suo dovere. Difende la posizione nel finale su Button usando tutto quello che può, ma di reggere il ritmo di Vettel non se ne parla.

Jenson Button – Discreto. Voleva legittimare il titolo con una gara all’altezza; ci è quasi riuscito, anche se al massimo poteva arrivare secondo. Non riesce a sorpassare Webber anche se ci ha provato in tutti i modi, ma in questa F1 moderna è già tanto vedere qualcuno che ci prova!

Rubens Barrichello  - Paperino. Anche questa volta gli succede qualcosa. Al via un pezzo della sua ala anteriore si stacca ed è costretto a correre cosi per tutta la gara.
Il suo ritmo non è male e non sapremo mai se con la macchina al massimo dell’efficienza avrebbe potuto raccogliere di più. Resta il fatto che se deve succedere qualcosa in casa-Brawn stiamo pur tranquilli che succederà a lui.

Nick Heidfeld – Ragioniere. Probabilmente è il lavoro che avrebbe fatto se non avesse intrapreso la carriera di pilota. Mai un guizzo, mai un colpo da ricordare; solita gara senza errori e conclusa in una buona posizione. La BMW si ritirerà, Nick troverà spazio nel 2010?

Kamu Kobayashi – Sorpresa. Questo qui è uno che va forte. Il Samurai non ha paura di nessuno, lotta con Button senza timori reverenziali e in gara risale dal 12esimo posto fino alla sesta posizione.
La Toyota si ritira e perde un sicuro ottimo pilota, chissà se qualcuno ne saprà approfittare.

Sebastien Buemi – Conferma. Dopo la grande gara del Brasile il pilota della Toro Rosso fa vedere di che pasta è fatto e surclassa di nuovo il compagno di team Alguersuari.
Gara senza errori, con sorpassi e sportellate; sta crescendo bene, in Red Bull continuano a garantirsi un futuro con piloti cosi.

Kimi Raikkonen – Arreso. La F60 ci mette 6 giri per scaldare le gomme. Nei primi sei giri Kimi perse una miriade di secondi dal gruppo di testa e la stessa cosa gli succede quando si ferma per il pit stop.
La sua gara finisce proprio nei primi giri, non poteva fare altro, visto che con questa macchina quello che poteva fare quest’anno l’ha fatto bene.

Giancarlo Fisichella – Impalpabile. In qualifica prende un secondo da Kimi. In gara parte bene, ma poi ai box sbaglia e gli tocca pure un Drive Through. Il ritmo non è malissimo, ma in frenata non riesce proprio a sfruttare la monoposto. L’ultima occasione in rosso per fare bella figura è andata. Ora basta cosi.

Lewis Hamilton – Capita. E’ la prima volta che si ferma per problemi meccanici dal 2007 ad oggi. Prima o poi doveva succedere. La gara poteva riservar lui un secondo posto sicuro, visto che vettel stava già scappando. Rimane il fatto che surclassa ancora una volta Kovalainen, ormai ex compagno di squadra.

If you weren’t impressed with the Abu Dhabi police department’s acquiring of a Nissan Skyline, be prepared to get blown away. The UAE has been known to be the master of PR in the region, meaning it knows how to put a spin on anything and you have to respect that!

To promote road safety in Abu Dhabi, the police force decided to showcase some of their cavalry. I had learned about the Skyline only recently, but I had no clue that they had a new Chevy Camaro, a custom Orange County Choppers (OCC) motorcycle dubbed “The Falcon”, and an open-wheel race car in full police gear (lights and sirens) called the F999 in their arsenal!

Thumbs up to the Abu Dhabi police for doing something different to raise awareness on the importance of road safety.

[Source: Abu Dhabi Police GHQ]

Following another US $ 5 billion bond from Abu Dhabi banks, Dubai asked for a freeze on debts till May 2010. Just after a series of assurances that Dubai will keep its promises and pay its debts, the announcement took the investors and economists by storm. It also created a question mark on the impact of such a request on the future of the Emirate. The news was carried by international media like the New York Times  and Financial Times which shows international interest in what is happening in Dubai and the future of this Emirate after the enormous growth it witnessed during recent years. The amount of debt due and total could reach US $ 80 billion according to certain estimates and everyone is looking to see how Dubai is going to get out of this crisis. It even sent stock markets tumbling. Read more about it here: http://www.politico.com/morningmoney/

La società, controllata dal governo di Dubai, ha contratto un debito per 59 miliardi di dollari. Panico nelle borse, durante la giornata di ieri, ed anche oggi sembra continuare l’andamento negativo su tutti i mercati.

Dall’emirato non arrivano voci chiare sull’entità della situazione, anche perchè tutto è chiuso per la festa religiosa di Eid al-Adha.

Qui il link all’articolo

Just a year after the global downturn  derailed  Dubai’s explosive growth, the  city is now  so  swamped  in  debt that  it’s  asking  for a  six-month  reprieve  on  paying  its bills.

Dubai Debt Fears Grip World Markets

This has cast a shadow on a world only just emerging from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s,  knocking markets  from Sydney to Sao Paulo and raising questions about Dubai’s reputation  as a magnet for international investment.

For India, which has tens of thousands of its citizens living  and working in the emirate,  the concerns are more direct:  thousands of its expats staring at job losses and  the economy, sharply reduced trade.

India, which gets nearly a quarter of the remittances from the United Arab Emirates and  has lakhs of laborers working in the region, could be worse off than most other nations  if the crisis escalates into a full-blown one  like the Russian or Argentinean crises of the past.

India’s exports to the UAE stood at $23.92 billion in FY09.

It is very likely that we may see one more leg of job losses in Dubai.

The only consolation for the region is that Abu Dhabi is booming.

Indian shares and the rupee fell in sync with other global markets where investors are fleeing for safety after Dubai debt trap concerns.

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex on Friday tumbled over 451.63 points to 16,403.30 points in the first ten minutes of trading on hectic selling by funds in line with weak global cues and concerns over Dubai’s debt.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty dropped by 140.50 points to 4865.05 points.

Brokers said the selling focus was more on banking and realty stocks after Dubai’s debt problems revived concerns about the global financial system and rattled markets across Europe and Asia.

Indian rupee fell 24 paisa to 46.55 against the dollar.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.4%.

Most European indices were about 2% lower after Asia tumbled.

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.6%, its biggest drop since August, and Brazil’s Bovespa Index slipped 1.1%. U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Credit-default swaps tied to debt sold by Dubai rose as much as 131 basis points to 571.

“Dubai isn’t doing risk appetite any favours at all and the markets remain in a vulnerable state of mind,” said Market analysts.

“We’re still in an environment where we’re vulnerable to financial shocks of any sort and this is one of those.”

Dubai request for debt ’standstill’ raises fear – Yahoo! News

UPDATES below

This story may or may not have large consequences for the United States.  I don’t know, but  it was a large red flag when I read it so I am passing it on to you for what you may make of it.  US firms are very much involved in the stupendous build up of Dubai with everything from the actual building to the technology installed in these buildings and business interests.  Our economy can’t stand too many more knocks and bumps without crumbling totally.

We have seen oil prices rising in recent weeks.  Remember this is a ready method of raising money in this oil rich portion of the world.  Higher energy prices at this point would be very hurtful and surely cause more lost jobs.  On the other hand,  rising oil prices may force congress to do what it should have done the last time oil prices went up, and that is open up our own  energy industry by lifting drilling bands  in Alaska and off shore.  Even tho this will not bring immediate oil to our reserves because development takes up to 10 years it will  bring on almost immediate jobs since the energy producing companies are the only ones who appear to have weather this down turn  still standing firm.

My concern is more for what will happen if things become much worst because in bad times people tend to look to the government to “DO SOMETHING”.  And people who are out of work and seeing themselves homeless or possibly homeless will give up liberties for a bit of what they think is security.    I hope and pray that if this is the first whisper opf another woprldwide blow to our economy that We the People remember that only in ourselves will we find the way back and never in a bigger and bigger and more dominating government.  Remember always that “Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”!

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Just a year after the global downturn derailed Dubai’s explosive growth, the city is now so swamped in debt that it’s asking for a six-month reprieve on paying its bills — causing a drop on world markets Thursday and raising questions about Dubai’s reputation as a magnet for international investment.

The fallout came swiftly and was felt globally after Wednesday statement that Dubai’s main development engine, Dubai World, would ask creditors for a “standstill” on paying back its $60 billion debt until at least May.

Markets took the news badly — with the Dubai woes and the continued fall of the U.S. dollar giving investors twin worries. Dubai’s move raised concerns about debt across the Gulf Region. Prices to insure debt from Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain all rose by double-digit percentages Thursday, according to data from CMA DataVision.

In Europe, the FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX and the CAC-40 in France opened sharply lower. Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai index sank 119.19 points, or 3.6 percent, in the biggest one-day fall since Aug. 31. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 1.8 percent to 22,210.41.

Wall Street was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and most markets in the Middle East were silent because of a major Islamic feast.

Asian stocks tumble amid Dubai fears, dollar slump – Yahoo! News

A second day of the  Asian and European markets tumbling will mean a bad day Wall Street today.  the US market was saved by yesteday being a holiday and thank goodness for the weekend coming up but things look like this is going to be the big bump we in america don’t need.

Any down dive on the market will give the Obamanation crowd the excuse they neeed to throw more money down the drain and set us up to follow Dubai and others that have gone bankrupt.  Oil is also down but that is only temporary IMO.  the dollar however is down against the Japanese yen.  Not knowing where to put their investment funds for safety the European and Asian market chose the yen over the long time king of the mountain  U.S. dollar.  Is congress listening at all??

Uncertainty over the ripple effects from Dubai World’s financial woes sent European markets plummeting Thursday, with benchmarks in Britain, Germany and France all losing more than 3 percent.

U.S. markets were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. But Friday was likely to be a rough session on Wall Stree with futures pointing sharply lower. Dow futures were down 327, or 3.1 percent, to 10,115.

Oil prices retreated in Asian trade, with benchmark crude for January delivery falling $3.87 to $74.06 a barrel.

The dollar was lower at 86.05 yen from 86.54 yen after swooning as low as 84.81. The euro fell to $1.4850 from $1.5021.

The BBC has reported that there are ‘concerns over Dubai’s financial health’ which have had a knock-on effect on European shares.

It stems from Dubai World asking creditors for extra time in paying off its debts.  The BBC and Reuters both suggest that the financial power of the United Arab Emirates will now shift to Abu Dhabi.

This news comes as no surprise to me.  I admit that I’m no expert on finance, nor am I an expert on the Middle East.  I have however, been to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi and there is an obvious difference between the two cities.

A more traditional view of Dubai

Flashy, frivolous…foolish?

Dubai is an urban jungle of the monstrous kind.  Driving from Abu Dhabi, you can spot it a while before you reach it; tower blocks of apartments competing with each other to reach the clouds, new corporate skyscrapers hoping to out-do the one built before, and cranes absolutely everywhere.  Here is a city that is expanding faster than even it can keep up with.  It’s flashy, frivolous…and now appears to be slightly foolish.

Move closer into the heart of the city and you get a glimpse of the world before oil; dhows buzzing about the river taking passengers from one side of the creek to the other, mosques peeking out between traditional style buildings.

Conversely, Abu Dhabi has an air of elegance about it.  Planned out meticulously, the infrastructure is set out in a grid system, much like the American way, enabling citizens to get around the island easily and efficiently.  It lacks the frenzied feel of its neighbour Dubai, and as the capital of the UAE, should feel more superior.

Retail v Culture

Both cities have been trying to attract tourism in recent years; Dubai promotes its cheap gold and diamonds, designer shopping and beach holidays, while Abu Dhabi has been busy building islands for its Cultural District. Aware that the oil won’t last forever Abu Dhabi is looking longer term.

British banks are now worried as more information on Dubai’s debt emerges.  Sky reports that ‘Barclays, RBS, Standard Chartered and HSBC’ all had sharp falls in shares today.

Is the Dubai dream over? I doubt it.  Will Abu Dhabi bail Dubai out? Possibly.  Whatever happens, it seems that Dubai’s amazing run on financial growth has finally faltered.  Perhaps they should get the town planners out and the financial planners in.

Question: What would you do if you were an ambitious emir with a pocket full of petrodollars to spend?

The answer is obvious: Grab a desert island, open up a Ferrari theme park and start gunning the engines.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi has a lot more on his mind than Ferrari fantasies in the desert. There are water theme parks to build, art museums to raise, golf courses to design, marinas to construct, polo clubs, villas and shopping malls to be created. All this is taking place at a pulsing pace on the scenic eco-reserve of Yas Island, 30 minutes west of Abu Dhabi by 10-lane expressway in the United Arab Emirates.

Yas Island, otherwise known as Bani Yas for the area’s original local tribes, spreads for about 33 square miles inside the Gulf of Oman. Once a full-fledged wildlife and nature reserve with an active conservation and breeding program, a little more than half the land is morphing into a $39 billion steroidal pleasure center, residential spot and business park promising to be nothing short of everything money can buy.

First there was the mad rush to complete the $40 million Yas Marina Circuit, by November 1 for the venue’s first Formula One event aptly named the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Aldar is also facilitating the building of roller coasters, a Ferrari Theater, a 900,000-square-foot retail mall, a 12–acre water park, four polo fields, a Warner Brothers theme park, an equestrian center, championship golf courses, a marina and floating harbor, beaches and beach clubs, an exhibition hall, a signature hotel overlooking the race track, drag race, rally driving, dune buggy and go-kart tracks, villas, apartments and lots of beach hotels. And that does not include the prince’s all-encompassing plans for a cultural district on nearby Saadiyat Island, where some of the world’s best-known design makers (think Frank Gehry, Jean Nouvel, Zaha Hadid and Tadao Ando) are building the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi, a branch of the Louvre, a maritime museum and a performing arts centre for world-class theatre and opera. A general completion date offered aims for 2014 with an overall infrastructure scheme for the city of the future that culminates in 2030.

For now guests of the new 500-room Yas Marina Hotel get a private window on the action as the 3.4 mile race course sporting 21 white knuckle turns runs right through the property, engines gunning at 200 mph.

But the park is meant to be a family attraction, too, offering not just top class racing events. Thrill-seekers won’t miss a G on the 210-foot twin rollercoaster drops that allow riders to race against each other to the bottom. Or they can get close to the real thing by test-driving the circuit with skilled instructors in the only Ferrari driving school in the world beyond the barriers of the Ferrari Maranello base.

Softer excitement can be found through go-kart racing, rally driving and dune buggying in the theme park. The Water Park in Yas Island provides refreshing action between the races but not without some gasps of its own. The Giant Maelstrom, Velkoma water bomber, Master Blaster and “hurricane” rides get the blood pumping. Other activities include cable water skiing, scuba diving and sand lounging.  Horse buffs can test their mettle on the polo fields or in the equestrian centre.

As more than 400 extinct-in-the-wild Arabian Oryx look on, joined by an odd assortment of African transplants from giraffes and hyenas to cheetahs, the quiet of this island preserve has also given way to an assortment of clean energy initiatives to power the new development: wind turbines, solar complexes, desalinization plants. The wildlife park was created more than a quarter century ago on the island to ensure the survival of Arabia’s endangered species. Archeological sites, too, have been discovered on Yas Island — the oldest to date being a pre-Islamic monastery dating back to 600 AD.

The Desert Islands Resort & Spa on Yas Island offers an assortment of rooms, suites and villas on the beach and provides access to the island’s natural preserves for rates starting at $400 per night. (971-0-2801-5400; desertislands.anantara.com)

Plans for Yas Island have brought a string of new hotel development activity now putting a shape on the island’s skyline. But a little luxury at the Kempinski Emirates Palace on the outskirts of Abu Dhabi may be the perfect complement to a Ferrari-focused holiday. Oversized rooms and suites pullout all the stops in “palace”-themed décor and come equipped with laptops, room controls, 52-62” plasmas, private terraces and private check-in/check-out. A dozen cafes and restaurants, a Moroccan-inspired Anantara Spa, a worldclass art exhibition gallery, fitness programs and a bevy of private beaches and pool areas make up the rest of the experience. Rates start at $585 per night. (971-2-6909-000; www.emiratespalace.com or www.kempinski.com).

Information:

• Visit Abu Dhabi
• 971-2-444-0444
• www.abudhabitourism.ae

El tema es muy relevante, global y puede afectar realmente la recuperación y la credibilidad del sistema mundial, nuestros ahorros y el futuro. No quiero ser apocalíptico. Nunca lo he pretendido y siempre he defendido el optimismo, pero como decía ayer, los excesos de euforia gratuitos son muy peligrosos y pueden afectar las sanas recuperaciones.

El mundo no está arreglado. Hay mucha deuda y mucha desconfianza. Hoy estamos en deflación, signos y señales de que hemos tocado fondo y otras previsiones alegres, pero cualquier día nos podemos despetar con un repunte inflacionario y una subida inesperada de los tipos de interés. Uno de los peligros más pertinentes procede de la deuda soberana. Y esto es como el dominó. Puede caer un país, y luego otro y más tarde otro.

La deuda que emiten los países no anda por ahí sonriendo. Está en manos de personas físicas y jurídicas. Sobre todo, bancos. Cuando un país, como ocurre con el holding Dubai World (lo mismo que decir Dubai a secas, pero queda más fino), pide aplazar el pago de su deuda, es que la alarma amarilla vuelve a cambiar de color: toca el naranja. Las cifras sobre la deuda de Dubai no son fácilmente cuantificables. Según informan diversas fuentes, la deuda de Dubai World podría ser de entre 22.000 millones de dólares a 59.000 millones y la del país 80.000 millones. Empezamos a saber cuántos bancos están atrapados.

¿Y después de Dubai? Estaremos atentos a la evolución de los diferenciales de los bonos a 10 años de todos los países respecto a Alemania, que sigue siendo nuestra referencia. Ni siquiera los europeos (Grecia está 200 puntos por encima) pueden estar tranquilos.

Se me olvidaba: suerte que hoy es Día de Acción de Gracias en Estados Unidos y no abren los mercados.

Fuente: Blogs Expansión

El gran holding de lujo estatal Dubai World pide aplazar su deuda durante seis meses

LONDRES, 26 (EUROPA PRESS)

Dubai sorprendió hoy a los inversores solicitando un aplazamiento de seis meses para Dubai World, el ‘holding’ estatal que ha desarrollado algunos de los proyectos inmobiliarios más extravagantes del mundo.

Según explica el diario ‘Financial Times’, planea el fantasma de un fallo en el ‘hub’ comercial de Oriente Próximo justo cuando se han producido los primeros síntomas de recuperación económica. Dubai aprovechó la época anterior a la crisis para generar un crecimiento espectacular gracias a la facilidad del crédito, por lo que se vio severamente afectada por la crisis financiera.

El movimiento de Dubai ha indignado a numerosos inversores que durante meses habían sido informados por el Gobierno de que la ciudad podría cumplir todos sus requerimientos de deuda bruta, que asciende a 80.000 millones de dólares, a pesar de la recesión y de la crisis inmobiliaria.

Dos horas después de anunciar que había obtenido 5.000 millones de dólares de dos bancos de Abu Dhabi, el departamento de Finanzas del país solicitó una moratoria hasta el próximo 30 de mayo para la financiación de la muy endeudada Dubai World y su problemática unidad de propiedades, Nakheel, que debe devolver 4.000 millones de dólares en bonos islámicos el próximo 14 de diciembre.

Dubai también lanzó una reestructuración del ‘holding’ estatal que supervisa el operador portuario DP Woeld, la compañía con sede en Reino Unido P&O Ferries y la firma de inversión Istithmar. Nakheel, sociedad que está detrás del proyecto de las islas artificiales, con propietarios tan célebres como David Beckham, ha tenido que despedir a cientos de trabajadores y a cesar su actividad con constructores debido a que los precios locales de las propiedades se han reducido a la mitad y a la sequía crediticia.

Símbolo de los excesos del país durante el periodo, la compañía estatal tuvo que cancelar el proyecto para la construcción de la torre más alta del mundo y de las islas artificiales de lujo debido al colapso del flujo de caja para su desarrollo.

“Esto destrozará la confianza de los inversores en Dubai; el proceso ha sido muy opaco e injusto para los inversores”, destacó el economista de Dubai’s Gulf Research Centre, Eckart Woertz.

Fuente: Cotizalia

Independent Political Analyst & Keynote Speaker, Daniel Silke comments on the economic crisis facing Dubai. All comments may be used in press reports with appropriate credits.

Don’t Write off Dubai Just Yet!

For many, there was a jealousy consumed with envy in their analysis of Dubai. Double-digit economic growth for over a decade made the Emirate a new economic model in a region that never before saw itself as a true global player. The audacity of development projects like The Palm and Burj developments were breathless achievements and a testimony to ingenuity and design. You couldn’t help but be impressed with the scale and size of property and residential projects – nor the strategic expansion of Emirates Airlines which was the catalyst in making the location of the Emirate critical to its economic development.

So, the “Debt Restructuring” or “Standstill” of some $80bn worth of loans just announced was justifiably enough to unnerve investors and the larger banking sector. Dubai’s exceptional growth path was built on debt. Its huge infrastructure projects financed by loans while its glamorous real estate companies played a global game of investing in assets as diverse as the Cape Town’s Waterfront, Barney’s clothing store in New York and the MGM Grand Casino in Las Vegas.

Sanctioned from the Sheikh’s palace, Dubai World and Nakheel (the largest of the property conglomerates) acted with impunity. A lack of any regulation or oversight enabled these companies to adopt the adage of “build and they will come” negating the market forces of demand and supply. Testimony to this is the many incomplete or vacant office towers that litter the desert along Sheikh Zayed Road – now a living monument to oversupply and market saturation.

But, for all the Western sniggering (and frustration) with Dubai’s current malaise, Dubai managed something of a miracle in a region beset by violence and social disintegration. For the first time, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum invested in his own region (or City) rather than accumulate vast sums of cash for the private use of the favoured class. Be it motivated by vanity (and who can deny that building the biggest and best are not vanity projects?), Maktoum laid the foundation for a remarkable Arab recovery.

Instead of looking inward and retracting into a religious or nationalist cocoon, Dubai stepped out of its comfort zone to create wealth and engage the world – and in particular the West – through the development of tourism and promotion of the City as a global player alongside London, New York and Paris. Dubai’s vision was much broader than just being a fleshpot in a hot, dusty and inhospitable part of the world. Making Dubai and example in the Arab world, exposing the region to outside influences (and vices) and creating a welcoming environment for business and leisure surely was an achievement rarely seen in decades of strife and disengagement with the West. And, the vision was copied by Abu Dhabi, Qatar and even conservative Saudi Arabia albeit on a more modest (and wiser) scale.

But here’s the rub. Although the vision of Maktoum and his Father can only be commended, the inability of the authoritarian nature of the state to effectively manage its execution coupled with an unexpected global financial crisis, has brought the Emirates credibility into disrepute. Without transparency and scrutiny in the public domain, a maverick state-sponsored capitalism took root that failed to temper the over-stimulated economy and bubble-like property market. Instead of putting checks and balances into corporate governance, the free-for-all reigned forth.

Ultimately, Dubai’s model was built around importing demand and services from the rest of the world. Its lack of any domestic market (and population), meant that the Emirate was vulnerable on virtually every front of its economy. Although Sheikh Maktoum enjoyed the luxury of having virtually no poor to worry about, relying on (often fickle) ex-pat skills and their purchasing power was almost a bigger millstone. And, with no domestic demand, every other sector of the economy had to be imported – from media conglomerates to services.  So, as the world contracted, so did Dubai. Bad timing combined with Authoritarian inertia and the narcotic effect of prestige, has placed the Emirate in a negative light. It’s credibility as an investment destination will take a long time to recover.

Ironically, what Dubai started, others will continue to emulate. Certainly Abu Dhabi looks set to come out of the crisis smiling. It too, watched carefully as its more flamboyant brother flirted with excess. And, it has learnt from the Dubai model. Watch Abu Dhabi market itself now as the region’s new emerging leader and take advantage of the stumbles across the Emirati line. With massive oil deposits as an insurance policy against the vagaries of the markets, Abu Dhabi knows it is now the proverbial son. Didn’t your Father always tell you that it’s fine to dabble in a risky business so long as you had something to fall back on? Abu Dhabi now has the ultimate fall-back position and with the Dubai model textbook in hand – warts and all – it can only come out trumps.

What is really mystifying is how badly the Dubai example was handled. The surprise Debt Standstill surely could’ve been massaged a little better. Again, the closed nature of the political system and the experimentation with a hybrid state capitalism in a state governed like a tribal familial authority showed that despite all the money in the world, good old fashioned Public Relations was lacking. Keeping investors informed and having international finance privy to problems was the only way to mitigate the fall-out from the present position. And, to think there are so many international PR companies with so many ex-pat PR practitioners waiting in the gleaming towers of the city who could’ve helped. Now it’s down to Deloitte to sort out the mess – at least the consultants will still have a role to play!

Dubai might be down – but it’s certainly not out. The Emirate has learnt some valuable lessons. Its brashness and assertiveness might have taken a knock – but it can come back fighting. Sheikh Maktoum is a visionary leader whose ego may now be dented, but the notion of integration with the rest of the world and the creation of an alternative financial and cultural hub is not something that should be allowed to flounder. The Dubai model, while unique in the Arab world is a light unto its neighbors and the world. While jealousy and envy might cause many to sneer at recent events, Dubai can (and should) get back on its feet. Don’t count it out just yet.

My last day in Dubai was a short one; my bus to the Abu Dhabi airport left in morning, leaving me no time for anything else. As I passed the Burj Dubai for the final time, I couldn’t help but wonder; what’s the master plan here? (if there even is one) 

There are few buildings near the Burj Dubai, and when viewed from the highway, it looks like it’s standing out by itself. And it is, really. Before they started construction in 2004, it was all only a patch of desert. In a handful of years they’ve built the worlds tallest building next to the worlds largest mall, next to one of the world’s tallest hotels (The Address Downtown at 306 metres is the 6th tallest building in the city, though it is still dwarfed by the monstrosity nearby).

Dubai is very much a work in progress, apparent even to a newcomer like me. Of the few cities I’ve been to in Australia and America, they had one thing in common; a CBD full of shops and office buildings, easily accessible on foot.  Maybe I didn’t go to the right places in Dubai, but I felt that something was missing. Taxis are required to go from place to place, and the main hubs are scattered over a 25km long strip. The souk I went to had a better atmosphere, but when compared to modern cities (and Dubai warrants the comparison) it just doesn’t feel the same.

Another thing that struck me in Dubai is how westernised it is. This can be a good thing for a westerner like me; everyone speaks English, all signs are in both Arabic and English, and the city has the same conveniences I take for granted back home. My taxi drivers all agreed that Dubai is a very safe city, the safest in the Middle East. While these are positives, it also means that I didn’t really experience much Arabian culture during my trip. What I experienced was more of a bastardized Western-Arab hybrid, and not much of a culture shock at all.

This does not mean I didn’t enjoy my trip; I think Dubai is a great place to visit, and I will definitely come back, preferably as part of a group. Some experiences I missed out on include the Burj Al Arab tour, going to the Wild Wadi Waterpark, indoor skiing, and visiting some of the other malls. And the future will bring even more touristy things to do; construction is underway on a Disneyland, a Universal Studios, and a giant sports stadium/centre called Sports City.

I write this in Frankfurt airport, my last stop before Stockholm. I’ll be there, speaking with Nick and Doug again, in a matter of hours. It’s strange to think I’ve planned to spend a year living in a freezing country, where I don’t speak the language and have no idea of where I’ll work.

Ah well; Sweden, here I come!

I’m thankful I’m not over-extended in my financial obligations. Well, sort of. Got plenty to pay back. I could use some oil money.

Maybe not. Dubai World is looking to the banks that lent them billions to hold off a little bit, according to yesterday’s New York Times:

The government of Dubai, in a blunt acknowledgment of the severity of its financial position, said on Wednesday that it had asked its banks for a six-month stay on its schedule of debt repayments.

The terse statement came in the middle of negotiations between creditors and Dubai World, the corporate arm of Dubai, which has led many of its most ambitious real estate projects, but is now struggling under the burden of $59 billion in liabilities.

For the banks that financed the debt-fueled ascent of Dubai — analysts’ estimates put its total debt at about $80 billion — the move by Dubai to obtain a standstill highlights a truth that many in the region had been trying to make clear to bankers. It is that Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich governing emirate of the United Arab Emirates, will not unconditionally bail out its more profligate neighbor. Instead, a genuine restructuring of Dubai’s debt, with pain being shared equally between Dubai and its bankers, needs to take place.

Try doing that with your credit cards. One by-product of this crazy borrow-and-spend oil economy is the world’s tallest building, the Burj Dubai. Check out this view from the top…

Abu Dhabi has already injected 10 billion US dollars several months ago, and bought significant entities such as Emirates Airlines amongst others.

My guess is Dubai has been trying to get more assistance from Abu Dhabi unsuccessfully, and has made this move in a final attempt to get AD to cough up.

But will it cough up enough to manage the debt of between 80 and 150 billion US dollars (depending on who you ask that is Dubai’s total debt)?

Here are a few articles from CNN today on the breaking news.  Will be *interesting* to see what happens to the Dubai Stock Market when it reopens on Sunday.

Has debt freeze exposed Dubai mirage?

Dubai shocks investors amid debt fears

By Simeon Kerr and Jennifer Hughes, FT.com

November 26, 2009 — Updated 1352 GMT (2152 HKT)

Investor confidence in Dubai, exemplified by its stunning architecture, has been shaken.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

 

• The size of Dubai World’s $22bn debt problem has been apparent for a year
• Bond markets reacted sharply to the news, investors demanded higher premiums
• BNP analyst: “Investors view this as shockingly bad news”
• Moody’s cut ratings on some government-related entities to junk status

(Financial Times) — Dubai has shocked investors by asking for a debt standstill at Dubai World, the government’s flagship holding company that has developed some of the world’s most extravagant real estate projects.

The move raised the spectre of default in the Middle East’s trading hub just as early signs of economic recovery have emerged. During the boom, Dubai rode the wave of easy credit generating phenomenal economic growth but was badly hit by the global credit crisis.

Dubai’s surprise move angered some investors who had been reassured by local officials for months that the city would meet all obligations on its $80bn (£48bn) of gross debt in spite of recession and a real estate crash.

“Investors view this as shockingly bad news,” said Rob Whichello of BNP Paribas. Two hours after announcing it had raised $5bn from two Abu Dhabi banks, the department of finance asked for a standstill until May 30 on all financing to the heavily indebted Dubai World and its troubled property unit Nakheel, which is due to pay back $4bn on an Islamic bond on December 14.

This will destroy confidence in Dubai,
the whole process has been so opaque and unfair to investors.

–Eckart Woertz

Dubai also launched a restructuring of the government holding company, which oversees ports operator DP World, the UK-based P&O Ferries and troubled investment company Istithmar. Nakheel, the developer behind the city’s Palm Islands that boast celebrity owners such as David Beckham, has had to shed thousands of staff and left contractors out of pocket as local property prices halved and credit dried up.

A symbol of Dubai’s pre-crunch excess, the government company has had to cancel plans for the world’s tallest tower and a constellation of reclaimed islands, as collapsing cash flow left the developer on the brink.

The government’s announcement came after the local stock market had shut and on the eve of the Eid holidays, during which most offices will be shut until December 6.

“This will destroy confidence in Dubai, the whole process has been so opaque and unfair to investors,” said Eckart Woertz, economist with Dubai’s Gulf Research Centre.

A spokeswoman for the department of finance said the government intended to ask all bondholders to extend until May. But the government said no decision had yet been made on how to deal with investors insisting on repayment in December.

The gaping size of Dubai World’s $22bn debt problem has been apparent for a year. But the government’s level of support has been clouded by politics and a lack of clarity on how much it could raise from international markets and the oil-rich capital of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi.

Bond markets reacted sharply to the news with investors demanding higher premiums to hold debt from the region. In London trade it cost about $460,000 annually over five years to insure $10m worth of Dubai government debt against default, compared with $360,000 on Tuesday. Prices rose for its neighbours with Abu Dhabi protection $100,000 more than on Tuesday.

Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service immediately downgraded the ratings of all six government-related issuers in Dubai following news of the repayment delay and left them on review for possible further downgrade.

Moody’s cut ratings on some government-related entities to junk status, while S&P cut ratings on some entities to one level above junk.

S&P said the restructuring “may be considered a default under our default criteria, and represents the failure of the Dubai government (not rated) to provide timely financial support to a core government-related entity.”

Das Image der krisenfesten Golfstaaten bekommt Risse: Nachdem das Emirat Dubai um Zahlungsaufschub für zwei Staatsholdings ersucht hat, herrscht Unruhe in der Finanzwelt. Das Emirat könnte in die Pleite schlittern, so die Befürchtung. Der Schuldenstand beträgt rund 80 Mrd. Euro. Ein großer Teil des Geldes war in den letzten Jahren in Großprojekte wie künstliche Inselwelten geflossen. Doch die Finanzkrise machte die Nachfrage nach derlei Luxus schlagartig zunichte. Für Dubai geht es allerdings um mehr als ein paar auf Eis gelegte Prestigeprojekte.

Mit einer soliden Basis aus Erdölmilliarden und scheinbar immer neuen Ideen für architektonische Superlative hat das Golfemirat Dubai bisher kaum als Krisenkandidat von sich reden gemacht.

Doch seit die Regierung die Gläubiger zweier Staatskonzerne um Zahlungsaufschub ersuchen musste, herrscht gröbere Unruhe in der Finanzwelt. Investoren fürchten die Zahlungsunfähigkeit des Emirats. Dubai selbst drohen die wachsenden Schulden einen Strich durch seine ambitionierten Zukunftspläne zu machen.

Staatsholdings in Finanznöten
Dubai hatte laut Meldungen der Emirates News Agency (WAM) die Kreditgeber der staatlichen Investmentholding Dubai World und ihrer Tochter Nakheel am Mittwoch ersucht, bis zum 30. Mai 2010 auf Rückzahlungen zu verzichten. Im selben Zug kündigte die Regierung unter Scheich Mohammed bin Raschid Al Maktum einen Umbau der beiden Staatskonzerne an.

Milliardenteure Prestigeprojekte
Diese hatten sich vor allem durch Prestigeprojekte wie die Dubai World, eine der milliardenteuren künstlichen Inselwelten vor der Küste, weltweit einen Namen gemacht. Mittlerweile sitzt Dubai, das Teil der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate (VAE) ist, auf einem Schuldenberg von rund 80 Mrd. Euro.

Geld für Rückzahlungen fehlt
Nakheel hat einen islamischen Bond (Anleihe, Anm.) über 3,5 Mrd. Euro begeben, der am 14. Dezember fällig wird. Dubai World steht laut “Handelsblatt” bei seinen Kreditgebern mit umgerechnet 39,3 Mrd. Euro in der Kreide. Ein weiterer Immobilienentwickler unter dem Dach von Dubai World, Limitless, muss mit 31. März fast acht Mrd. Euro refinanzieren.

Nun fehlt das Geld zur pünktlichen Rückzahlung. Diese galt, so die Zeitung, bisher als “Lackmustest für die Bonität Dubais”.

Image bekommt Risse
Parallel zum Ersuchen um ein Schuldenmoratorium beschaffte sich Dubai im Nachbaremirat Abu Dhabi fünf Mrd. Dollar (3,3 Mrd. Euro) als Teil eines seit Anfang des Jahres laufenden Finanzierungsprogramms. Ursprünglich wollte sich das Emirat doppelt so viel Geld leihen.

Mit dem möglichen Szenario eines Zahlungsausfalls bekomme “auch das Bild der enorm finanzstarken Golfregion Risse”, kommentierte am Donnerstag die “Financial Times Deutschland” (“FTD”). Immerhin waren Investoren aus den Golfstaaten während der Krise mehrfach als “rettende Engel” für westliche Unternehmen eingesprungen.

Emirat im Umbau
Dubai arbeitet seit Jahren am Umbau seiner Wirtschaftsstruktur. Grund ist die absehbare Erschöpfung der Rohölvorräte. Nur noch ein einstelliger Prozentanteil des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) stammt aus der Erdölwirtschaft.

Interessenten bleiben aus
Stattdessen versucht das Emirat, sich als internationales Zentrum für Finanzen, Handel und Tourismus zu etablieren. Teil dieser Strategie sind die zahlreichen Prestigeprojekte wie die künstlich aus Sand und Felsen im Meer aufgeschütteten Inselwelten “The World”, “The Palm Jumeirah” und “Dubai Water Front”.

Durch die Finanzkrise ging allerdings das Interesse am Luxus seitens westlicher Investoren schlagartig zurück. Das letzte Großprojekt, der Nakheel Tower mit einer Höhe von über 1.000 Metern und projektierten Kosten von über 25 Mrd. Euro, wurde vorübergehend auf Eis gelegt.

Das Laufhaus in Dubai

While on our tracked in the desert we found the white sand on the way to the roads area with its sand dune around, we followed the white road as it helps to got in a right way back home.