Not that I tilt (much), but I’m still a little upset about a hand I played a couple of weeks ago at Norwich Poker Club. Long story short, I have pocket 7s in a 3 way raised pot, flop comes 733, bet, call, I call. Blank on the turn. It all goes in (one guy is very short). Of course the other guy has pocket 3s. Of course he’s the only player on the table to have me covered. Nah, it’s ok, you win, you win.

I love watching this video every now and then, it just makes me remember that flopping top boat against quads isn’t that bad. Ahem.

Oh, I did forget to mention that I made it £20 blind (£0.50/£1.00 nlh btw) on my straddle half an hour later (tilt anyone) when the guy to my left (Richard Jones, international poker star and sponsored pro) makes it £75. I look down at aces (220 to 1 anybody) and instaship. He called with 10s (rightly so) and turns quads (wrongly so). Good night then.

It’s nomination time for awards from the American Copy Editors Society. Here’s how to enter two of the organization’s contests:

ROBINSON PRIZE: This award honors the copy editor of the year who demonstrates not only superior editing skills, but also mentoring and leadership ability. The deadline to nominate someone (or yourself) for the prize is Dec. 1, and you can do that with a handy online form.

HEADLINES: These awards go to the best headline writers in the country. There are six categories, including a student competition. Find out more about the contest at the ACES site. You can enter online this year.

Winners for all prizes will be announced at the ACES national conference in Philadelphia in April 2010. Online registration is under way, and I hope to see you there.

Well, Lady Luck didn’t look favorably upon the boys. They got pounded 8-1 Friday night in Legal then lost tonight 6-3. A point in their favor, Drayton Valley didn’t rack up any more goals in the third period, unfortunately the hole was just too deep for the Aces to dig themselves out of.

No one is complaining about a $100,000 mistake made by a southern New Jersey store clerk.

Indian Fields Market owner Domenic Galle says a man walked into the Bridgeton store and asked for a Deuces Wild scratch-off lottery ticket Monday night.

Galle says the clerk gave him an Aces High ticket instead.

The clerk chased after the man when she released she had made a mistake. But he was gone.

Galle says the man walked in an hour later with a $100,000 winner.

The man doesn’t want his name released.

A great game Saturday nite.  Down 2-0 after the first, tied 3-3 midway through the third.  6-4 final, an empty netter ensuring the win.

From October 31 to November 1, 2009, Force Recon ACES, Portugal conducted a 48-hour Military Airsoft Simulation in Estarreja, Portugal. Surveillance and Target Acquisition was the main subject for this Mil-Sim . It involves watching an area to see what changes and then the acquisition of targets based on that information.

The charity centered activity involved around 100 airsoft players and were able to donate food, clothing and toys to different charity institutions within the region. Best wishes to our brothers in Portugal!

Force Recon ACES

Force Recon ACES

via: Original Pinheiros Style

Good game last nite. The Aces finally won their first game of the season; now sitting at 1-4.

36 months and $750,000, for, according to former VECO CEO Bill Allen’s new hot shot lawyer George Terwilliger, Allen’s runaway passion for former Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski’s secretly negotiated Petroleum Profits Tax (PPT).  Terwilliger suggested to US District Judge John Sedgwick that Allen’s passion clouded his judgment and got the better of him, so much so, that he bribed Alaska legislators.

Remember the beloved PPT? That was the industrious scheme concocted by Murkowski and The Oil Producers behind closed doors.  Alaska’s 4^th Estate failed to explain it.  Your morning newspaper, the Anchorage Daily News, never once called the PPT a NET PROFITS TAX!  Nor did the ADN ever fulfill their social and unwritten pact to educate the public on something so basic, yet so vital!                       

The net profits game was not unique to the oil business.  Corporate film studios employed it as a way of dangling a carrot in front of aspiring, young Hollywood creative types. For decades, it was standard practice; studios would use creative net profits accounting practices to siphon profits from successful blockbuster films and then show on paper how much money they lost.  5% of nothing is still nothing.  Promised net profits were just empty pipe dreams.  The Federal Courts finally got involved and the net profits scheme became a nefarious thing of the past…at least in the film business.

In Frank Murkowski’s Alaska, The Producers dusted off and resurrected Hollywood’s net profits scheme and changed the name to the PPT. The PPT would forever tie Alaska’s primary revenue stream to the efficiencies of the oil producers while simultaneously incenting them to be inefficient; that is, the higher their costs (INEFFICIENCY) they could deduct, the less their royalty payments would be (INCENTIVE) and therefore the less revenue for the state of Alaska (INDUSTRIOUS SCHEME). 

Despite the tandem of strong-handed lobbying from Governor Murkowski combined with Bill Allen’s bribery of state lawmakers, and Ted Stevens yet-to-be-indicted son, Ben, presiding over the senate, the Alaska Legislature barely passed HB 3001 (the PPT) on August 10, 2006.  Murkowski signed the bill into law nine days later.  But, just like in Hollywood, the FEDS got involved and uncovered the plot.  And, given the money at stake-hundreds of millions; in fact billions of dollars would flow either into state coffers or inflate the already record-high Producers’ profits.  Had the PPT not been thrown out, the promised net profits would have literally become empty pipe dreams for Alaskans. 

Just eleven days after the PPT became law, Allen was with Republican Senator Fred Dyson heading to breakfast when they were confronted by the FBI.  Allen claimed during his sentencing statement to Judge Sedwick that after listening to the damning tapes he immediately decided to quit drinking and cooperate with the FEDS.  The next day, August 31, lawmakers’ offices in Juneau were raided by the FBI.  Politics in Alaska forever changed.

It’s been a while since the federal courthouse busied itself with anything related to the Alaska Corrupt Bastards Club.  Blame the Bush DOJ and the botched prosecution of the slam dunk trial of former Senator Ted Stevens.  Since the last time Bill Allen passed through courthouse security, he hired an infamous new gun.  George Terwilliger was George W. Bush’s key lawyer during the fraudulent Florida Recount following the 2000 election.  Remember the Brooks Brothers faux riot???  Yep; an associate of the Bush Crime Family right here in Anchorage representing Bill Allen at his sentencing.

36 Months and $750,000…

That’s the price Bill Allen will pay for his orchestrating the Corrupt Bastards Club.  Given the sentencing guidelines meted out by Judge Sedwick, 36 months was just 5 months shy of the maximum recommended by the federal government.  $750,000 was, in fact, the maximum fine Sedwick could impose, and, according to Sedwick, he would’ve imposed a higher fine if he could have because Allen’s crimes were motivated by greed.  And besides, that’s how neighbors do one another.

But, you know, according to Allen’s counsel, the amount of money involved in this case was only “lunch money” compared to the billions being spent on health care lobbying in Washington DC.

I’ve attended most of the CBC trials: Tom Anderson, Pete Kott and Vic Kohring.  I listened and watched enough audio and video surveillance tapes of drunken, corrupt legislators jockeying for positions of favor (read ASS KISSING) with Mr. Allen to last me, oh, I don’t know…at least 36 months.

These trials have been nothing short of high drama and tragic entertainment.  I laughed out loud at Pete Kott confusing Viagra with Ambien and punctuating every sentence with a boisterous Larry-the-Cable-Guy “Get ‘er DONE!”  And his desire to be a prison warden in Barbados was irony at its finest.  Watching Vic Kohring on trial made me want to just pack him a lunch and give him a sandwich.  He always reminded me of that really big 8^th grader that shaves and ought to be a senior.  There were also things that surprised me.  I caught myself feeling this strange and surprising grandfather-like affection and empathy for fallen oil-services tycoon, Bill Allen…the same Bill Allen who published the Anchorage Times-an honest diatribe in that they never pretended to be anything other than a right wing rag; a rag I passionately disagreed with.

Given Allen’s age, 72, his health, and his immediate accountability and cooperation with the federal prosecutors, I understand Judge Sedwick’s 36-month sentence.  I have no idea how they come up with those guidelines.  I do know it wasn’t the minimum sentence nor was it the maximum.  I believe, however, it was probably a reasonable sentence-all things considered.  Compared to the reality deficient and forever unaccountable Tom Anderson, Pete Kott and Vic Kohring, Bill Allen seemed saintly.   AND…Bill Allen never swore to uphold the public trust-something that Judge Sedwick failed to mention in justification of his relatively light sentence.  A conspiracy of this magnitude requires extensive corruption on both sides; the bribers-Bill Allen and his family, former VECO Vice President Rick Smith and the bribees-Kott, Kohring, Senator B, Bruce Weyhrauch, Beverly Masek and John Cowdery; it’s kind of like being single and cheating with someone who is married.  Who made a promise and took a vow? 

That matters.  The unmarried party is still immoral, but the married person wreaks more havoc.  Of course, both are corrupt.  In this case, the unmarried adulterer is Bill Allen and Co.  The married vow takers and promise breakers are our legislators that swore an oath to uphold the Alaska Constitution and the public trust.

These trials have been an ugly stain on Alaska’s government and oil industry.  And, judging by the prosecution’s comments in court this past week, we aren’t yet through.   Ben Stevens has been implicated in recordings but has not yet been indicted.  Bruce Weyhrauch received a delay courtesy of the 9^th circuit court. Alaska Congressman Don Young has paid massive attorney fees with his campaign trust.  There are others and yet even more questions.  What is going on with Jim Clark?  Who is he cooperating with and implicating? 

And, more than anything else, the thing that nags and gnaws at me is the damning audio tape of ConocoPhillips President Jim Bowles instructing Bill Allen to get the “…House to go ahead and gavel out and finish up and get them out of town…” at the very moment the PPT was in danger and facing tough opposition.  To me, the CBC points upwards from Bill Allen.  It leads to The Producers; ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and BP.  It was The Producers who were full-court pressing Allen to do their dirty bidding. 

As a result of the corrupted PPT, the Palin Administration proposed Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share (ACES).  Palin’s initial draft had many of the same problems as the PPT.  It was a net profits tax with unlimited deductions-contradicting her campaign promise to replace the PPT with a gross profits tax.  The ACES bill that Governor Palin signed into law on December 19, 2007 was completely remodeled and tweaked by key legislative Democrats; Senators Hollis French, Bill Wielechowski, and Kim Elton, along with Representatives Les Gara and Beth Kerttula worked long hours to insure ACES would balance “maximum benefit for Alaskans” with Producer investment incentives.  As a result, the Owner-State of Alaska immediately began earning its fair share of its resource wealth.  Ironically, those same Democratic Legislators that helped Palin pass marquee legislation became the target of her ire from the time she was on the campaign trail until the day she quit.  The McCain Campaign sent the “truth squad” to Alaska to viciously attack her former allies as they tried to understand and unravel Troopergate.

The local right wing talk radio jocks that dominate Alaska’s public airwaves and the Oil Producers have been crying foul ever since:

“We’re taxing ourselves out of jobs!”

“Investment is drying up on the North Slope!”

“We’ll never get a gas line!” 

“Alaska’s closed for business!”

“Last one to leave turn out the lights!”

“We’re growing government!” 

“We’re chasing investment out of the state!”

“We must repeal ACES before it’s too late!”

“SOCIALISTS!”

Well, once again, the right wing fear mongers were caught LYING.  We have had nearly two years under ACES and guess what?  Not only did the sky not fall, but, according to the October 18, 2009 issue of Petroleum News, at least one producer, ConocoPhillips, is doing more than just fine under ACES:

Alaska oil and gas production makes up about 12 percent of ConocoPhillips’ worldwide output.  In the first quarter of this year, Alaska operations earned the company $240 million, or 29 percent of its worldwide exploration and production income.

In the second quarter, ConocoPhillips had $725 million in E&P worldwide earnings: More than 55 percent of that, $404 million, came from its Alaska business.

I may be Just A Girl From Homer, but when 12% of your business accounts for 29% of your income, I’d say that part of your business-ALASKA-is doing pretty well!  And when that same 12% of your business accounts for more than 55% of your earnings in the next quarter…well I’d say that’s a pretty spectacular trend-or as my pop likes to say, “better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick”; especially given the worst worldwide recession since The Great Depression! 

Make no mistake.  These right wing radio talk jocks are nothing more than oil company shills.  They aren’t interested in Alaska’s constitutional mandate; that Alaska’s resources be developed for the maximum benefit of the people.  They sit there, day after day and pollute the public airwaves with their anti-Alaskan, misinformed, fear-mongering drivel.  They push their GOP ideology and they’re hardly entertaining-shilling rarely is.  They’ve basically morphed themselves into an interactive infomercial for the hard-line right-complete with callers.  It reminds me of those fake half hour gold informercials.

The best negotiated deals are those that are mutually beneficial.  ACES, clearly, is a win-win.  It’s good for Alaska and it’s good for The Producers.  Anyone who says different is either just a whore with oil dripping down their chin, or The Producers themselves.  The truth and proof lie in the income statements.

Now…how long, if ever, till the FEDS raid The Producers’ downtown offices?

Professor Jake Sherlock of the University of Missouri presented this video at a recent American Copy Editors Society conference. It’s a good reminder to always edit.

Shot the home open of the Athabasca Aces last night.  Not a bad game, disappointing result – 5-4 loss.  0-2 on the season.

I quickly found out I had forgotten a bunch of stuff from shooting last season.  Still, didn’t take too long to get the camera dialed back in.  I suspect it didn’t help that I went from shooting with a f1.8 lens to a f2.8 lens.  But having the 24-70 zoom was rather handy compared to being stuck at 50mm.  For the second period I just parked myself behind the Legal net and shot as the play came to me.  Totally different perspective from last years photos, but you have to be on the ball.

Then this morning I get an email of Facebook totally out of the blue.  Did I have any pictures from the game?  It was the goalie from the Legal Vipers looking for material for their website.

This camera thing might be starting to catch on.

This is the full text I was supposed to read at the 350 Day of Action.  The Cincinnati weather was freezing and windy, and the Fountain was spraying all over us.  So I cut it short for the sake of my audience, leaving out all the political nuances.  I said I would post it online for those who were interested–so here it is:

Hello. My name is Elizabeth Trombley, and I am a recent graduate from the University of Cincinnati. I studied International Affairs; I don’t have much of a background in environmentalism or climate change. Although I have long maintained an observer’s interest in environmental issues, I became actively involved after I attended PowerShift, a movement of concerned youth in Washington DC this past February. It instilled in me a sense of urgency when I realized that whatever humanity does today, will be my generation’s responsibility to deal with tomorrow. I want to make sure I will be dealing with a better world.

Perhaps it is this determination, combined with my background in global issues, that I was chosen by SustainUS to be one of 30 youth delegates to the watershed UN talks in Copenhagen this December.

SustainUS is an organization dedicated to sustainability and empowering youth worldwide. It is the only organization of its kind in the country. For the last eight years, SustainUS has been increasing youth stakeholder involvement at the UN. We are an accredited NGO that engages our policymakers at the international level.

This year at Copenhagen, we will join over 500 international youth form around the world to seek to ensure a bold, binding and just international climate treaty as our leaders discuss emission reduction targets, adaptation methods, mitigation opportunities, and ways to reduce global deforestation.

The conference is taking place from 7-18th of December in Copenhagen, Denmark. Officials from 192 countries, plus non-governmental organizations (like SustainUS!), and a large media contingent will be in attendance.

The treaty that will result from this is intended to take over for the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. All year, there have been ongoing negotiations to hammer out the details, but with only six weeks to go, there are still some serious issues that need to be worked out.　

For instance, science says that greenhouse gas emissions MUST reach their peak by 2020 to avoid catastrophic climate change. Emissions must be reduced by about 80-90% by 2050. Industrialized nations will need to reduce their output by about 25-40% within the next ten years to achieve  this. The problem is that these same nations’s commitments almost universally fall well short of the science.

Poor and developing nations of the world, like China, India, Brazil, Mexico and others, have all called for science-based pledges, and they resent richer nations’ lack of initiative when these nations are the ones most able to effect change.

Also note that India and China, along with the US, are the three key players at Copenhagen. Both India and China have huge national carbon emissions—China’s are now greater than the US’ even though their per capita emissions are very low—and both have indicated that they will not commit to reduce their emissions on the grounds that they have to alleviate poverty. The US is leery of making commitments when other major carbon emitters hesitate to commit—and the rest of the world sees no reason to be more ambitious when the US, historically the largest emitter, will not commit. Thus, the main hurdle to be cleared right now is not technical, it is political.

It is critical that we come to some type of international agreement this December. We have an ever-diminishing window of time to reverse carbon emissions and see that we do not create runaway climate change. But politics are not only global—the US faces similar issues domestically, as I am sure you are aware. Since the US is seen as a world leader on this issue, and other nations are not likely to feel obligated to solve the problem if our country—contributing 25% of global carbon emissions—sits idle. And US negotiators are liable to be forced to sit idle if Congress has not passed some type of legislation prior to the talks—our negotiators will simply be unable to negotiate without the legal go-ahead. Therefore, it is critical to the international agreement process that Congress pass climate legislation before December.

As a youth delegate to these talks, I am going to feel pretty embarrassed if I have to walk in without the US passing some type of legislation. But, there is something you can do to help. The House of Representatives has already passed ACES bill. Up now in the Senate is the Kerry-Boxer bill in the Senate.

Both need to be passed to be signed into law. This bill will need 60 Senatorial votes to pass—and we need to obtain those votes quickly. The healthcare debate has raged on for many months; we need to push the climate bill through much more quickly. And this is where you can help. Your Congressmen depend on citizens to guide their course of action—if they move slowly, it’s because they are getting mixed signals from their constituents. Likewise, massive support for bold climate legislation will ensure that bold climate legislation gets passed—quickly! I am asking you to contact your Senators—George Voinovich and Sherrod Brown—and let them know they need to pass strong climate legislation before the UN meets in Copenhagen. Senator Brown is fence-sitting on this issue—concerted citizen involvement can make all the difference! He needs to hear from you! Senator Voinovich has traditionally tried to build bipartisan compromises—he too is on the fence! That’s right, BOTH of our state’s senators can make a difference, if you tell them too!

Their local offices are right here in town, and I have been to both of them—you can walk in and speak with a representative. It is even more effective to contact their Washington DC offices—either by phone or by letter. There is contact information over there complete with talking points. I hope you can support me in this way.

While I am on the subject of support, I would like to add that I am required to fundraise for my trip to Copenhagen. I am doing this in a variety of ways—you can make a direct contribution to my organization, SustainUS, either online or by check. You can also donate directly to me, and I guarantee I will get the money where it needs to go.

I am also maintaining an online electronics-drive, so if you are not comfortable donating money, you can instead trade in any unwanted electronics on my behalf. All of this information is available on the table over there. I would also encourage you to take a look at my blog, which is where I update my progress on the road to Copenhagen. You can find it at www.LizToCopenhagen.wordpress.com. Again, this information is on the table over there.

Thank you for your attention and support.

I’d hoped to wait a little longer to move past 2009 and get into the real offseason stuff, but since the drumbeats are already starting (okay, and work is really boring today, too) we might as well get out ahead of what is sure to be a defining issue of the winter:

OHMYGOD OHMYGOD OHMYGOD WE NEED AN ACE NOW NOW ACE ACE

Which is basically the impression I’m getting from the general public right now. As always, Bill Plaschke’s the one who starts the negativity train rolling:

For the Dodgers to fulfill that promise, the first bit of education must occur in the front office, which needs to realize something that everyone from here to Nicaragua now understands.

They need an ace, or they will continue to be NLCS jokers.

The fact that they had to start castoff Vicente Padilla in Wednesday’s critical game makes one sort of statement.

The fact that Padilla was a complete wreck, giving up six runs in three innings, just confirms that statement.

In this championship series, the Dodger starters were 0-3 with a 12.59 ERA, and even the best bullpen in baseball couldn’t save that.

The ERA statement is a little unfair – so much of that is due to Hiroki Kuroda’s disaster in Game 3, and he’d likely have started a game regardless -  but for once, Billy’s not completely wrong. The pitching wasn’t championship quality in this series, and I don’t think anyone disagrees that upgrades will need to be made in the starting rotation if the Dodgers are going to go any further next year.

Here’s the thing, though, as I learned while listening to some hilarious calls on KABC’s DodgerTalk after the game (and good lord, Josh Suchon, I have no idea how you have the patience to deal with some of the comments you get there). Most people don’t seem to understand just how difficult it is to acquire an “ace”. It’s not like you snap your fingers and one just appears,  and as we’ve been through so many times, the fact that Ned Colletti didn’t come up with one in July says much less about his ability as GM than it does about the ridiculous demands made by Toronto for Roy Halladay and Cleveland’s questionable decision to accept Philadelphia’s package for Cliff Lee.

There’s so few pitchers of that quality that even exist, and if you have one, you’re not giving him up. On the rare occasions that one does hit the market, you’re either going to be paying a crushing price in talent, an enormous free agent contract, or both.

So before we start an offseason filled with bleatings of “we need an ace! I don’t care what it costs!” let’s try to define just how possible that’s going to be.

1. What is an ace?

How do you define an “ace”? There’s all sorts of nebulous ideas out there you’ll hear, like “knows how to win”, and “playoff tested”, and “veteran toughness”. Those are all bullshit. How many times have you seen Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, and – until this year – Cliff Lee in the playoffs? Yet, you’d still consider them “aces”, right? No, we’re going to do this with stats.

Let’s go with two Baseball Prospectus measures on this – VORP, and SNLVAR, which is “Support Neutral Value Above Replacement”, i.e., taking out the variables of offense and defense to measure just a pitcher’s contributions. (Full explanation here.)

So how many “aces” were there in 2009? One per team? Well, when you get down to #30 on those lists, you get names like Ted Lilly and Kevin Millwood. Quality pitchers to be sure, but hardly anyone’s definition of an “ace”. Completely arbitrarily, the top 20 seems to be a more appropriate cutoff, just based on the names there. As it happens, 19 names make the top 20 on both the VORP and SNLVAR leaderboards, with Jered Weaver and Wandy Rodriguez making one and just missing the other. We’ll include them, give Johan Santana, Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy injury exemptions, and go with 24 total pitchers; quibble all you want about whether these guys are “aces”, this is just unquestionably who the top pitchers were in 2009 – plus those three.

2) Who are the 2009 aces, then?

Zack Greinke
Adam Wainwright
Felix Hernandez
Tim Lincecum
Roy Halladay
Chris Carpenter
Jair Jurrjens
Matt Cain
Cliff Lee
Javier Vazquez
Justin Verlander
Wandy Rodriguez
Dan Haren
Josh Johnson
Clayton Kershaw
CC Sabathia
Jon Lester
Randy Wolf
Ubaldo Jimenez
Edwin Jackson
Jered Weaver
Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Brandon Webb

I’m sure a few things jump out at you from that list, like “there’s two Dodgers on it!!” (yep, we’ll get to that in a second) and “what about guys I know like Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt and John Lackey?!” Well, I shouldn’t have to explain Hamels, who got kicked around by the Dodgers twice in the NLCS after a mediocre season, and Oswalt’s been declining for four straight years, down to just league-average in 2009. While Lackey’s a solid pitcher, ERA’s of 3.75 and 3.83 the last two years hardly have him beating down Cy Young’s door. If Cy Young had a door. And wasn’t dead.

3) Oooh! Aces!! I want them now! Gimme gimme gimme! The cost be damned!

So now that we’ve defined 24 “aces”, what are the chances of the Dodgers actually ending up with any of these guys? 

No chance in hell, teams won’t move them, at least this offseason division (13): Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright, Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Jair Jurrjens, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Wandy Rodriguez, Jered Weaver

No chance in hell, within the NL West division (5): Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb

No chance in hell, hates the West Coast division (1): Javier Vazquez

Already Dodgers (2): Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf

Let’s not overlook that last point. While no one considers Wolf to be a top-level guy, by all measures he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2009. And Kershaw? Just leave the kid alone and let him be awesome. He’s done nothing but improve in his short career, dominating for much of 2009. You could make the case that he’s an “ace” right now – I did already, in July, pointing out that:

Look, what Kershaw is doing right now is simply unbelievable, as his 2.76 ERA is good for 11th in all of baseball. Forget his age for a moment, because the performances we’re seeing are outstanding no matter what year his was born. In the 9 starts since his 2.2 inning struggle on June 10, Kershaw’s pitched 56 2/3 innings… and given up all of five earned runs. That’s an ERA of 0.80, which would be awesome if it didn’t make the blood rush to my head hard enough to make me think I’m going to pass out. Really, you think there’s anyone in baseball that’s going to improve on that? There’s a pretty solid case to be made that Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for the last two months, and that’s even with Mark Buehrle doing nothing but throwing perfect games lately (he gave up 8 ER in 3.1 IP four starts ago).

If a guy like that is our best pitcher in 2010, I think I’ll be more than okay with that. Still, the only thing better than one ace is two, so…

4) So there’s only three aces who may or may not be available?

Sure seems that way - Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, and Roy Halladay, and even they’re not for sure. Hernandez made it to the bigs even earlier than Kershaw, and was outstanding at age 23 this year (19-5, 2.49 ERA, 217 K), so the only reason he even might be on the market is because he’s only a year away from free agency and the Mariners might not think they can keep him. If they make him available – a big if – it’s going to cost an ungodly haul of prospects and at least $180m in contracts, because he’s that good.

Johnson would be available for the same reason, as he’s in his arbitration years and the Marlins may not be able to afford him. He’s less of a sure thing than Hernandez if only because he had two years of arm troubles, but he came up huge this year (15-5, 3.23 ERA, 209 IP). However, he’s not free agent eligible until 2012 (I think), so the Fish might not feel pressure to move him just yet.

And then there’s Halladay, yet again. There’s no question that he’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory. But there is going to be a question about whether the new Toronto GM, Alex Anthopolos, is going to be as absurd in his requests as J.P. Ricciardi was. Either way, Halladay’s a free agent after 2010, so if you’re going to give up a boatload of prospects to get him, you’ll want to sign him – but how much are you going to want to give a guy who’ll be 34 in 2011 with over 2000 innings on that arm?

5) So you’re saying there’s no ace coming?

Well, I’m saying that there’s already an ace here in Clayton Kershaw, and I’m also saying that anyone who’s given up on Chad Billingsley is a fool. Don’t forget, the two aces everyone wanted to trade Billingsley for – Lee and Halladay – each ended up back in the minors after establishing themselves in the bigs. I’m not saying Billingsley needs to be farmed out, just that he’d hardly be the first young pitcher to struggle for a bit before regaining his game.

As I see it, there’s only those three top-tier guys that might be available. I think the cost for Hernandez would be prohibitive, and I don’t think the Marlins are ready to move Johnson. Now if the price for Halladay has dropped due to A) only getting him for 2010, rather than the ‘09 playoff push as well, and B) a new boss in town who’s more reasonable, then I’d be interested in exploring that – as long as it doesn’t take Kershaw or Billingsley.

No one wants to improve the pitching staff more than me; you just can’t forget that there’s only so many guys like that out there. After all, they wouldn’t be “aces” if every team had a bunch, would they?

Returning to the subject of yesterday’s Senate Climate hearing, I wanted to note the slightly surreal tone of the debate regarding uncertainty. The public testimony and Q&A shifted from typical explanations of what has been studied and reported by the CBO and others, to an almost philosophical discussion of man’s ability to know reality or in this case the reality of the cost climate legislation. I half expected them to start talking about “known unknowns”.

The GOP Senators loved hearing the experts admit there is a lot of uncertainty, but what does that uncertainty actually mean? If Climate legislation is cheaper then expected then the transition to a carbon free economy is easy. If climate legislation is more expensive than expected then the transition will be harder, but does that really constitute a reason for inaction? I’d argue the difficulty of the transition makes it only the more important to start sooner.

The first area you’d want to look at it why the climate change legislation would be more costly. The only likely reason for significantly higher cost is that science would find there simply are not discoverable energy technologies to replace fossil fuels no matter how much the market creates incentives to create them. If this was the case climate change legislation would be more costly and alter the cost benefit analysis.

However, it wouldn’t likely change the cost benefit analysis enough to make ignoring climate change the best path, nor would it mean to we could continue the status quo even if there was no climate change. Once you honestly evaluate the cost of inaction, it’s hard to imagine the costs would be higher. Further, there are limited fossil fuels available and if they are really impossible to replace as a power source it would be better to gradually phase them out then just proceed to use as if they’ll never run out risking economic catastrophe and continuing to ship money out the country while our competitors invest for the future.

The proper point of comparison is the cost of climate legislation starting today compared to the cost climate legislation waiting even longer when we’ve continued to increase our fossil fuel consumption even higher then it is today. In that comparison you’ll find that higher costs in today’s climate legislation will only be meet by even higher costs if we delay moving towards less fossil fuels, greater efficiency, alternative energy sources, and conservation.

It’s not a question if we should act on climate, it’s question of how much longer we pretend we have any choice in the matter.

-Chris

Carrots and Sticks spent the morning at Congressional hearings. I attended the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the costs of climate legislation.

One thing that struck me was the reasonable nature and tone of the questions. The majority of the questions on both sides of the aisle were intelligent and showed a solid understanding of the issue. I can’t read minds but I didn’t think any of the questions were motivated by dishonesty or intentional misrepresenting the truth. Which makes the questions terrible blog material.

Which gets to the perverse incentives that blogs and the media have regarding to the behavior of politicians. Senator asks reasonable question is a dog bites man story, so anybody looking for a story tries to find the most heated or otherwise entertaining event going on, which leads to a distorted view of reality. Instead of reading about the great majority of Congressional Republicans that don’t want to start McCarthy-style hearings on Democrats we read about Michelle Bachman. If tomorrow Chairman Rangel decides to act in conciliatory way to Republicans, and Chairman Frank decides to launch a emotional attack on Republicans, you can bet you won’t see Rangel on cable news shows.

-Chris

by Rinku Sen and Billy Parish

Last week, the Labor Department reported that youth unemployment stands at 18.2%, nearly twice the national average of 9.8%. The percentage of young people without a job is a staggering 53.4 percent, the highest figure since World War II. Looking deeper, the statistics for youth of color are terrible and telling.

According to the most recent data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 40.7% of black youth between 16-19 are unemployed, almost double the amount of whites teenagers (23%). For Latinos the same age, the rate is nearly 30%. Get a little older and the gap grows wider. Unemployment for black Americans aged 20-24 is 27.1%, over twice that faced by white youth (13.1%) in the same age range.

The glaring differences indicate that unemployment is not only decidedly raced, but also that the current economic condition is wholly unforgiving for young people of color. Only a massive, well-funded set of green jobs programs explicitly designed to close those racial gaps can create a truly vital, full-employment economy.

Without more opportunities for young people, those un- and under-employed will suffer in the short and long-term, especially in their ability to attend college, afford health insurance, buy homes, and save for retirement. In short, they won’t be able to make a living. The great promise of the green economy to end poverty as well as environmental suffering can only be fulfilled if we’re prepared to fight, not just for green, but also for racial and economic equity.

There’s a long history of clashes between environmentalists, workers’ organizations and racial justice movements, as each operated on the assumption that they had conflicting goals. Yet, the objectives of all three are interdependent for two big reasons. First, poor economies and environmental degradation have a disproportionate impact on communities of color. People of color occupy jobs in the most hazardous industries and homes in the most environmentally degraded neighborhoods. That’s not accidental. It is a predictable result of persistent segregation, which strips communities of color of their power, facilitating the discriminatory placement of toxic incinerators, power plants, factories, and other big polluters in their communities.

While economics has contributed to the dual degradation of the environment and communities of color, racism has accelerated environmental and economic problems. “White flight” from inner cities fueled suburban sprawl, leading to more driving, more highways, and more carbon in the atmosphere. And in industries like agriculture and food production, with prominent racial hierarchies, employers find it easy to generate competition and scapegoating between various groups of workers, killing unionization drives that could produce better wages and conditions for all of us.

Luckily, a growing number of people know better than to separate environmental and economic recovery from race. Local groups have started green jobs programs for young people that are inclusive and future-oriented. In Oakland, California, for example, the brand new Green Media Youth Center boasts a green job training program that can help create pathways out of poverty for young people in the city. Last Friday at the Center, Milani Pelley recorded her latest song in a brand new studio. Jhamel Robinson showed off the permaculture garden behind the building. And the list goes on.

But great programs here and there aren’t enough. We need to bring those programs to scale, and create both training and the actual jobs through federal, state and local policy. We need to spend real money funding job creation, and then closely monitor implementation to make sure new programs generate local hiring, affirmative action, great wages and benefits and long term career paths, among other elements that will make them work.

This year, a national alliance of organized labor and civil rights, social justice and environmental groups has worked to create a vibrant clean energy economy that can not only improve the environment and economy, but also close the racial gap. In the House version of the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES), this alliance secured the eleventh-hour addition of a billion dollars for green jobs training, as well as equity provisions for access to the jobs created. The Senate version released last week maintains those provisions.

These policies are a good start, but if they’re to survive and lead us to the additional billions and effective implementation that we need to get control of unemployment, we have to be prepared to fight on the race front, as well as the green. All signs indicate that opponents will bait American racism with brutal inventiveness. If the right’s attack on Van Jones isn’t enough of a warning, then we should take our lessons from the health care debate. We can expect conservative pundits to call equity guidelines reverse racism, or to put up immigrants rather than corporate pollution as the true cause of environmental collapse.

To counter that rhetoric, we need to be able to articulate more than a “lift all boats” approach – which improves things but leaves the racial and poverty gaps in place. We need to move support for a “fix all boats” approach that ensures full recovery for all. It’s our responsibility to change the rules and structures that threaten to exclude people of color from taking part in the new, green economy.

Young people are going to have to take the lead in this because they’ve got the most at stake. The decisions we make as a country now will affect them far longer than anyone else. The powers that be like to call these Millennials the first “post racial generation.” They claim that young people take racial equality so much for granted that fighting racism is low on their list of priorities. The polluters of the gray economy will take that idea straight to the bank, unless young people themselves make it clear that they understand racism shows up in all our issues, including the environment.

We should amplify and grow efforts to build an inclusive green economy. In doing so, we must always ask two key questions about new policies and programs: is it green, and is it fair?

Rinku Sen is the Executive Director of the Applied Research Center, which promotes racial justice through media, research, and activism.  Billy Parish is the founder of the Energy Action Coalition, a national youth clean energy coalition.

This entry is cross-posted at The Huffington Post.