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MARCH 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

jerewebbhomes — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 15:29:22 +0000

As I look at the March Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

1. Sales are up 20% from last month, and 8% up from this same month last year. Chart A3

2. Pending sales are up 21% from last month, and are up 12% from a year ago. New Construction surge continues up 34% from a year ago, resale pendings are up 5%. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

3. Distressed sales were down this month. Short Sales were 11% of the total sales this month. Record high 01/12 23%. REO sales were 8%. Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 19% of the sales “distressed” this month. Record high was 12/10 at 61%. This is the “healthiest” month since 09/08 in terms of the greatest % of Equity Sales! Chart A42

4. Short Sales closing success % unchanged, - 14% this month. 12/10 high of 22%. Low 1/10 at 10%. A53

5. The dollar volume was up 30% from last month and 38% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales. Chart A5

6. Year to date sales UP – 3% more units than a year ago Chart A4. The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year. ”Higher prices!” Chart A6.

7. Median Price Up for a home sold this month - $186,900. This is 3% UP from last month; and a 23% increase from this same month last year! Chart A10

8. New Construction Median price up this month – $253,070. This is up 5% from last month; and a 25% increase from this same month last year. Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold! Chart A9

9. Resale Median UP this month – $173,500. This is up 8% from last month; and a 26% increase from this same month last year. Record low 01/11 at $126,500. Chart A12.

14. Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down. This month’s 3.2 from 3.7 month’s of inventory last month. This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging. January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory. . . Record low may have been – 04/12 at 3.0! You have to go back to 05/06 to find a lower supply at 2.9! . .Chart A26.

15. Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down. Keep an eye on chart A27, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold! This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales. Chart A28 features a longer time period view of just the county wide average number. This month’s 3.5 from 4.1 last month.

16. New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down. Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.8 from 6.1 last month. February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 6.5. September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3. Charts A29 & A30

17. Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down. Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 3.5 last month. February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory. July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9. Charts A31 & A32

19. Future Business Forecast is up above 100%. A54. 132% - so closings next month should be up considerably from this month’s level. Last year at this time it was 130%.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222. Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com

FEBRUARY 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

jerewebbhomes — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 16:59:25 +0000

As I look at the February Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

Healthiest market in terms of Equity Inventory and Equity Sales since September 2008 except for a brief burst in August & September of 2012.
Best February sales month in terms of units closed in 6 years – have to go back to 2007 to find a higher February.
Sales $ volume up 20% over a year ago, unit volume up 4% – can you say “higher prices!”
Median resale equity pricing so far this year is 5% higher than the equity median pricing for 2012.
Looking at the 2 month rolling average for supply this February tops out lower than recent years so another sign that the market is moving in the right direction – 4.1 months of supply vs. 4.6 last year. New construction is 6.1 vs. 7.9 last year. Resale is 3.5 vs. 4.0 last year.

One cautionary note that I see buried deep in the numbers is this: the “future business forecast number” is not as strong at this point as it has been in the past.

2010 – 145%
2011 – 133%
2012 – 143%
2013 – 125%

This is a calculation that predicts closing levels in the next 30-60 days based upon new business written, pending levels, etc.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222. Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com

HOW MUCH ARE PRICES DOWN?

jerewebbhomes — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 21:12:14 +0000

How much is your home in Ada County worth today compared to a year ago?

1. Comparing the Median Sales price of a resale home in March 2011 to March 2010, the answer is a shocking 18% less.

2. Looking at a bigger picture and comparing the Year to Date Medians the answer is 20% less.

3. Finally going out still further and comparing the last 6 month’s Median the answer is 16% less

Notice of Default & Notice of Sale Filings 10/19/2009

Jeremy Erickson — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:43:22 +0000

For more information about the Real Estate Market in Ada county, Go to AdaCountyMarketReport.com.

For distressed Property Reports click here (NOD & NOS Tracking Charts and more)
For Ada County Market Reports Files Click here (New Construction and Resale Market reports for ada County)

If you have any questions on my data, or just in general please send me a email at jeremy@adacountymarketreport.com

thanks

Jeremy E

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Default and Notice of Sale recordings are way down for Ada County! See the trends here.

Jeremy Erickson — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:54:41 +0000

The filings from Ada County are out for the week, and the Notice of defaults are down to the 2nd lowest amount in the last 3 months. The Notice of Sales are also down too. From what I can tell in the short run, we are trending downward, but it doesn't take much to make it go back up. Now that I have over three months data collected from the NOD's and NOS's I think we can conclude that the filings are pretty sporatic, but the data is talking. We just need to dive further into it. I think it goes in phases, we have a real high week and then it goes down down down, then we have another high week, and then it goes down down down.. then it happens again. The problem that I see is the high weeks keep getting higher. I can't really put a lot into this theory yet until have a couple of months more data. My prediction is that in the next week or two the NOD's will be ski high again, and then we will start over again. So stay tuned, and tell me what you think, please leave your comments below.

Jeremy Erickson
AdaCountyMarketReport.com

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Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Default and Notice of Sale recordings are way down for Ada County! See the trends here.

Jeremy Erickson — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:54:29 +0000

Jeremy Erickson
AdaCountyMarketReport.com

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Distressed property percentages are slowly dropping in Ada County, See the resale report here!

Jeremy Erickson — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 17:50:09 +0000

Over the past couple of years that I have sent out market reports, I have never been serious about resale data. I have looked at it and studied it, but I was so focused in New Construction over the past 6 years that I didn't give it much thought. I have had a paradigm shift, like many others have had in this challenging market. I want to see the big picture on this Real Estate market, and the only way that I felt I could do that is really dive into all the sales and listing data on both sides of the spectrum for residential real estate. I have been collecting and sorting (resale) data over the past couple of months to see what would be useful to share with others that are trying to understand the market. I have created a new Resale Market Report for Ada County. I think it has opened my eyes to what is really happening out there in the market place. Enough talk, here is the link to the video that I created. And I am going to give you a link to download the report in pdf format. Just click here, and you will be directed to a page so you can download it. Make sure you look a the bottom of page to see the attachment to click on. Have a great Week!

Jeremy E

AdaCountyMarketReport.com

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Ada County Notice of Sales Recorded updated as of 9/02/2009

Jeremy Erickson — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 03:16:21 +0000

Notice of sale Recordings are down from last week. For more information, please got to AdaCountyMarketReport.com and click on Distressed Property Reports Page.

Jeremy E

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

NOD's were crazy high this week! NOS's were up too! check the charts out here.

Jeremy Erickson — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:07:49 +0000

Wow, can you believe the NOD's? (Notice of defaults) for the week. Its almost like they saved them up just to dump them on the pile this week. Trying to clear their desks before school starts. Not sure what that means, I guess we just continue to watch them and see where it takes us. It seemed like we were doing so good, then all the sudden someone just dumped a ton a bricks on the cart. Lets hope that its just an anomaly and not a trend. If you have an comments or questions, don't hesitate to leave a comment or send me a message directly. Have a good week! to see the entire spreadsheet, and the current Homeowners under default click here to navigate through the info.

Jeremy Erickson
(208) 991-3606 direct
(208) 379-5717 fax
jeremy@spluse.com

http://sites.google.com/a/schrenkerickson.com/distressed-property-reports/home

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Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Tracking ADA County Recorded Notice of Defaults

Jeremy Erickson — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 01:13:49 +0000

This is a Shot of one of my living Charts that resided on the Website. Go to http://www.jrerickson.com/ACMR/NDF_Chart.html# to get the live document. Every Week I put in the new amounts of defaults that are being recorded at the County. A lender after 90 Days will Send a “Notice of Default” to you if you haven’t been paying your mortgage. from there, they will proceed with Foreclosure process.

7619 W Bearcreek Ct, Boise, ID | Powered by Postlets

Jeremy Erickson — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:39:36 +0000

7619 W Bearcreek Ct, Boise, ID | Powered by Postlets

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Cities dump fees to bolster building in recession « IBR Real Estate Update

Jeremy Erickson — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 02:22:52 +0000

Cities dump fees to bolster building in recession

By ibrealestate

Associated Press

Developer Frank Varriale hoped his plans to build shops, apartments and a hotel in this sprawling Boise suburb would have become reality by now. Instead, about the only things standing on his land are knee-high wheat and corn.

But the city has taken steps to help revitalize those projects by eliminating what are commonly known as “impact fees” — charged by municipalities nationwide to pay for the additional services that come with increased development, such as schools, sewer lines and roads.

Meridian is among a growing list of hard-hit communities across the country that are lowering or suspending impact fees. Measures have been debated in Washington state, Texas, New Mexico, New Hampshire, California and elsewhere. Florida made it easier for residential developers to challenge fees; Arizona lawmakers froze them for two years.

Cities are increasingly realizing that they need to eliminate as many deterrants to development as possible during the economic slump, and the impact fee are among them.

“They want business to come here,” Varriale said.

Average 2008 fees were $1,520 in Texas; California’s average was $19,536, up 38 percent from 2004 excluding sewer and water fees, according to a 185-city survey by Duncan Associates, an Austin, Texas-based planning consultancy.

The trend to suspend or lower fees has prompted debate over whether spurring a construction resurgence is more important than forcing new businesses or residents to pay upfront for services, or if these communities are laying the groundwork for haphazard development and higher taxes for current residents.

In Meridian, the city suspended fire and police impact fees on commercial projects. For a 50,000-square-foot building, somebody breaking ground before Sept. 30 on Varriale’s land would save $15,500.

Varriale, who has already built about 1,000 residential homes on land surrounding his proposed commercial site, isn’t expecting any miracles from the council’s move. But he said every little bit helps.

“It’s just that upfront cost,” he said. “The lower you can keep that, the sooner you can turn a profit.”

via ibrealestate.wordpress.com

Interesting Article I saw in the Idaho Business Review.

How To Avoid Foreclosure

idadata — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:33:46 +0000

Here’s a short message that give you the full scoop on recent government actions that should help slow down the rate of foreclosure. I also have some helpful ideas for people who are actually in trouble right now!

Enjoy

Jacob Nordby

October '08 Real Data & Opinions--Ada County, Idaho

idadata — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:00:22 +0000

As we closed the month of October, the overall numbers are off about 20% for single family homes sold in Ada County compared to September 2008. For Ada County, 503 single family homes sold in September 2008 with a median sales price of $205,000. For October 2008, 400 single family homes sold with a median price of $195,500. That’s a 5% drop in median prices in 30 days. The distressed properties in the Valley are really taking their toll in the overall market place. Currently, we have 4200 active single family homes on the market. This reflects a 10 + month supply of active inventory.

With all the media hype set aside, I personally feel we are looking at being close (within a few month) of having the majority of our markets nearing the bottom. I cautiously state “close” simply due to the fact of the number of foreclosures we will be see coming into the market place with in the next 3-4 month. Ada County has 725 homes scheduled for foreclosure between now and the first part of Feb 2009. Several of these foreclosures will be satisfied prior to their sale date, but we will see a large majority of these places end up in the market place as bank foreclosures (REO properties). Within the last 45 days, several banks have really discounted their prices just to unload their default portfolio. We have seen a number of REO properties recently sell at 2003 prices!

Within the last 2 weeks in Ada County, 160 homes have gone pending and 55 of the homes were either short sale or a foreclosure. That’s 33% of the overall market! Current sellers need to really know how they are priced accordingly to the foreclosure and short sale inventory.

The North, North East and South East areas are fairing the best for holding values. It all comes back to the old saying… “Location, Location, Location”. If you’re thinking of buying before to long, you might want to start looking around. There are some REALLY good buys out there. Good enough buys that even if the overall market still drops a little, you’ll still be protected. Thinking about investing? We’re seeing a number of properties that are cash positive. There are currently several 3 bedroom homes in Boise for under $100,000!