Il 1UP, ossia il locale che ci ha ospitato per diversi mesi nelle nostre ranbat e nelle numerose smazzate infrasettimanali ha inaspettatamente chiuso i battenti per problemi finanziari. PEM, un duro colpo.
Con poco più di una settimana abbiamo dovuto traslocare la ranbat romana #2.5 –è stato un miracolo che la data non è slittata– in un altro locale del circuito ESC Italia, con tutte le dovute conseguenze: avvertire i giocatori, testare la location, assicurarsi che tutto sia ok et cetera. Da questo scenario tutt’altro che promettente ci siamo ritrovati con i consueti giocatori che hanno superato le 30 unità, e non ce l’aspettavamo davvero questa volta.
La nuova location, ovvero il Next Generation promette davvero bene. La lontananza invece per il momento si sta rivelando un problema, ma un compromesso in questo senso deve essere trovato.

Lontananza a parte ci siamo trovati bene, ma è un peccato perchè il 1UP era diventato l’epicentro della scena picchiante romana dove ormai i giocatori si riunivano diverse volte la settimana per giocare e confrontarsi insieme.
Il vecchio quartier generale crolla ma la Scena non si ferma, ed il Fato può anche metterci i bastoni tra le ruota ma deve tener conto che le difficoltà sono il nostro pane quotidiano.

powered by Arcade-Extreme: www.superstreetfighter4.it

Con il trascorrere del tempo il mio blog si è andato riempiendo di riflessioni personali, cinema, arcade ed altre argomentazioni completamente random.
Per cui si ricomincia da qui, con uno spazio interamente dedicato. L’evidente funzione principale di questo blog è (e sarà) quella di raccogliere le mie principali attività ed esperienze inerenti al panorama picchiante in Italia attraverso la nostra community di Arcade Extreme.

Per il momento sono presenti post trasferiti dall’altro blog, per il momento.
Un passo alla volta.

Questo è un periodo veramente d’oro per tutti gli appassionati di picchiaduro e in special modo di Street Fighter.
A Febbraio con l’uscita del quarto capitolo (per il mercato casalingo) c’è stata letteralmente un’esplosione modaiola e un ritorno ai vecchi fasti per il culto picchiaduristico, noi di AEX non possiamo non essere contenti di quello che sta accadendo.

Fino all’anno scorso eravamo poche decine di players sparsi in tutta Italia a portare avanti le nostre ranbats per il solo gusto di farlo e per creare un appuntamento fisso per noi appassionati. Ma, dall’uscita di SFIV pian piano gli eventi dedicati al titolo Capcom si sono e stanno continuando a moltiplicarsi, Ottobre infatti è stato ribattezzato come “Il mese più occupato della scena arcade italiana”.

Uno degli eventi importanti di Ottobre è stato il torneo del Romics organizzato da ESC Italia con la nostra collaborazione. La giornata ha visto la partecipazione di ben 67 partecipanti provenienti soprattutto dalla Capitale, ma anche da altre parti d’Italia.
E’ stato un grande successo e a tal proposito ho scritto un report (aspetto la sua pubblicazione).

Romics 2009: lo Staff e il podio dei vincitori

Il mese non è ancora finito e a breve ci saranno altri eventi, l’Inferno Cyber League e il torneo al Lucca Comics 2009.

Tornando invece a parlare degli eventi nostrani la seconda stagione delle ranbat prosegue a gonfie vele: a Roma abbiamo raggiunto il traguardo del quarto appuntamento lo scorso 17 Ottobre e grazie a Simone  “AKirA” Trimarchi abbiamo potuto allestire una postazione dedicata alla registrazione dei video con telecronaca in diretta dello stesso Akira. Potete visionare il lavoro svolto direttamente sul suo blog a questo indirizzo (la Grand Final la trovate qui).

Adesso solo a Roma contiamo una base di 50-60 giocatori. Sono bei numeri,  speriamo di continuare a cavalcare l’onda ancora per molto.

Per concludere, visto che da diverso tempo non scrivo riguardo i nostri eventi vi lascio qualche link di riferimento:

• AEX Ranbat Roma – topic ufficiale sul forum
• AEX Ranbats (Milano e Roma)

• Romics 2009: i risultati
• Foto Romics 2009
• Coverage a cura di Simone “AKirA” Trimarchi

In our article of August 28th 2009 called “Investors are still climbing up the wall of fear”  we published our expectations of where the indices would end their current advance around mid September 2009. In the same article we also mentioned: “Be aware! The current highs in the market are already within the minimum acceptable time and price range for an Elliott Wave c of 4 to be finalised. On the alternative scenario there is still some room for investors in some indices to further drive the index towards the upper part of the channel, but some other indices are already at that point but could consolidate in the mean time, even into early October at the latest.”

We are unfolding that last scenario right now. The secret of Market Timing is to attend to all details and to get the last pieces of the puzzle to fall into place. One can easily overlook details. If you look from a distance at a forest, one can not see the trees clearly. If you only come into close range, you see more and you can confidently discriminate the different trees from the forest. The same applies to the Stock Market.

So, this is why we continuously research the market position from all angles, and only when all the puzzles fall into places and we get confirmation from various sides that do not contradict; we come to a final conclusion about the position of the stock market. We simply adjust, refine our analysis, once more information comes to the table. If you have read all our previous articles after August, you see what we mean. We allow the market to unfold itself, and base our conclusions on that evidence.

In this weeks preview we have already analysed that we assumed a final leg into the crest of the current cycle was still pending to come. Simply all of the evidence still did not match up. Todays market volatility to the upside, suggests we have now possibly embarked on a final leg, in competing wave C of 4 of some degree.  We could still be heading to a crest at September 28th/29th +- 1 trading week. But the final leg, could well be the beginning of October as well, as I mentioned on August 28th already. We will use the FTSE 100 market position as an example.

What is the FTSE 100 market position?

When evaluating the timing and analysis of the stock market we always check the market position of  the FTSE 100. The FTSE 100 has a higher correlation with any global stock market indices than the S&P500.

If you are aware of Gann’s work than you probably have noticed that the FTSE 100 turned its’ course on bang on the 60th and 90th days(degrees) of trading, since the bottom in March. See below chart.

Yes, from above chart you will see we did not use the lowest low date, but instead the lowest close date (which is 3 days earlier).  You should always look at both options. A three days earlier or later start of your counting could lead to 1 week difference in final timing.

You also can conclude that there are some important Fibonacci relationships in price and time unfolding. The first advance in price up to wave A was a 987 (Fibonacci) point advance since the lowest close on March 3rd 2009.  Wave C could still well be double that amount (1974 points) from that point, it is bang on the Andrews fork upper-line and a GANN 1X1 angle.  

Drawing the Andrews fork, a GANN 1X1 angle, as well a displaying the Fibonacci rations between the ABC wave now unfloding they  all seem to come together at October 6th, at a price level around 5486,09, which is 1974 (double 987 Fibonacci) points since the lowest close on March 3rd.

From an Elliott wave perspective wave 5 of C could well end anywhere between 5220,03 and 5486,09 of which the latter is a the double Fibonacci points retracement from the lows in March as well as a Fibonacci 4,236 wave extension for completing wave 3-5 from wave 2. I am sure it will not be right on this price level, but the odds are high it could come very close. Keep a close watch on the above price range.

Anyway, the price target will likely coincide with a time target of October 6th +- 1 trading week. Be aware this scenario is still a projection and time is more important than price. When time is up the market will turn definitely.

You can apply a same approach towards the DAX, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, the Dutch AEX and many other indexes, although some of them have different but similar solutions. You will most likely find a same target around the dates mentioned for the FTSE 100 in this article +- 1 trading week.

Conclusion

The secret of Market Timing is to attend to all details and to get the last pieces of the puzzle to fall into  place. There are really no secrets, all information and evidence is right in front of us. If we only want to know and see. See in this article on the FTSE 100, how a likely Elliott wave 5 of C will probable coincide with the upper part of an Andrews Fork, a GANN 1×1 angle, possibly bang on a 1974 Fibonacci point(double 987 Fib) advance since the lowest close on March 3rd 2009, and including a GANN 150 trading days/degrees away from that same important bottom.

Is it a coincidence or does all evidence come together at this point? We don’t know 100% for sure yet. Anomalies, unexpected shocks in the Stock Market can happen at any time but the probabilities do favor this scenario. It is still a projection but for now this is our bias for the moment we like to work from. 

Including our earlier analysis in the article “Running out of time” in our thoughts, the time span for a market turn now is anywhere between 28th/29th September 2009 – 6 October 2009 for the FTSE 100(and many other indexes) +- 1 trading week. Each market might deviate somewhat from the FTSE 100.  We will evaluate at a later point in time what will become of this projection.

If time permits I will add the analysis for the other indices we have discussed earlier in the article on “Investors are climbing up the wall of fear” in the coming days. Take care and stay tuned.

How have we done so far on our stock market predictions in 2009? The proof of the pudding is in the eating!

If you browse around this blog you will find we accurately predicted the next move in price and time ahead of the crowd sometimes days, weeks and months before it actually happened.

On February 22nd 2009 we wrote: ” I expect that around March 10-12th +/- 4 days we will have set a temporary bottom. I than expect, looking at the longer term cycles, the market will retrace from the March bottom for several months and can go south again for another few months until June/July this year.“

On March 11th we concluded: ”Given the price movement of March 11th, there is a high probability we have reached the bottom of the medium term cycle we have been following for the stock market in past previews…”

Comment: the S&P 500 bottomed at March 6th 2009.

On May 3rd our findings were: “..the dominant cycle we are following closely in these blog postings of the last few months is still in play, and there is a 75% probability this cycle is likly to run it’s course until May 8th +/- 4 days. This intermediate high will probably confirm an Elliott wave 4 of some degree (or part of it), since the downtrend started in 2007. We do expect a further downtrend will set-in once this high has been confirmed. This will likely take us to much lower regions, and culminate in a bottom around July 7th 2009 +- 4days.”

Comment: From May 8th 2009 onwards the S&P500 moved into a corrective pattern sideways to downward and bottomed around July 8th 2009. A great call for intermediate top and a bottom for the FTSE100 , but in some markets like the S&P 500 the cycle pattern did not behave as expected during May and June.

On July 16th we wrote: “The market dropped from that point to a 865 low on the pre-market S&P500 futures of July 8th. On the FTSE500 the market was already down on the dominant 4 month cycle, from early May, so it was to be expected that the market would reach a low around July 8th. As we haven’t seen so much movement to the downside in this cycle, one can conclude that the longer term cycles are still pointing upwards, and that we are now on a wave C as part of an ABC counter trend that started early March this year.. This will probably end the current cycle counter trend on a pricelevel that is between 980 and 1150 on the S&P500, with a possible timetarget of September 7th 2009 +- 4 days. The above 2009 mass pressure forecast charts also clearly indicates a bullish trend throughout the summer until early September 2009.”

Comment: The stock market continud on it’s projected course into early September so far as predicted on July 16th 2009. In the mean time we kept our subscribers informed on various potential scenario’s during August and early September.

On September 14th we concluded: “Given the current preferred Elliott wave count of wave C of 4, and taken into consideration the rate of change and slope of the current up trend, the end of wave C of 4 for the S&P 500 will most probably point into the end of September 2009 with a price target on the S&P 500 between 1070 and 1150” Comment: this scenario is still intact. Be aware that any close below the bottom of September 2nd on the S&P 500 will invalidate this scenario.

On October 5th and 12th 2009 we wrote: “It is getting clearer the market seem to have unfolded in a abc correction wave from the top in September, unfolding wave 4 of C 0f 4″…, “The changes are increasing we are now heading towards unfolding wave 5 of C of 4″ and “Assuming we are in the last wave 5 of C now  we are looking ahead of us for the next probable top in the S&P500  to be set most likely in the last week of October, anywhere between 23-30 October 2009. Probable price target of 1121″.

Comment: During September and October we kept our head cool and continued to look for a logical correction point in the stock market, although we changed our opinion of the preferred Elliott wave count.  Our forecast for the end of October top was within 4 days of the expected time target, although we did not reach the expected price target.

On October 27th we wrote: “On the short term expect the market to head downswards into early to mid November 2009.” but on the longer term we noted: “The current Elliott wave scenario suggests we are on a wave 4 of A of a wave 2 counter trend. Fibonacci and Gann targets suggest the Wave A of 2 to be formed at the 62% Fibonacci retracement in price and time (on chart given: 15 January 2010 @1219-1240); at which point the S&P500 is in perfect harmony.”

This scenario is still in play unless we close below 1017 on the S&P500.

I leave the rest of the conclusions and comments for you.

Be aware there always anomalies in the stock market that could disrupt the forecast on the short or medium term, although the longer term forecasted trend may still stay intact.

We need to accept, that although certain rules and guidelines were applies in a systematic way, preparing the analysis and projections, this can be wrong sometimes. We never have all the information in advance and we are all humans, so our thinking could be easily clouded sometimes due to emotions and other limitations.  So, you always need to keep questioning yourself, and others, including us. Past perfermance is not indicative for future results.

© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

In last weeks preview we wrote (amongst other things): ”..We are now in a sub wave 3 of C of 4 that is about to end; so, if this scenario is correct, we expect some minor counter trend (wave 4 of C of 4) in the coming week(s) to come, after which wave 5 will complete the wave C of 4.”

Forwarned is forearmed. The Stock Market  is now further climbing up this fall of fear. The Stock Market is taking it’s time to complete  a wave C of 4 of some degree we assume for now. In earlier posts we published a time target between mid and end of September 2009. We have reached the minimum target in price and time for some time, and the trend is still in tact.The market is overbought, so be prepared the market can turn at any point in time. A top could already have set in.

We are now closing in to the 50% price retracement level (S&P500:1122) of wave 1-3 (October 2007-March 2009) at a probable time target of September 29th 2009. This target is at the top of the channel, at the crest of a dominant cycle (see below chart) ,as well as 144 Fibonacci trading days since the bottom of March 6 2009. This target applies to many of the major indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE100, German Dax, Nikkei225, the Dutch AEX etc. Some markets already reached at their preferred price targets!

Be aware. The Stock Market is likely to be drawn as a magnet to this energy point in time and price, mentioned in this article, although anomalies can happen. The party is likely over if we close below 1015 on the S&P500. Allow for some deviation at the probable top of  +- 1 trading week. Take care!

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© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer and Terms of Use.

Today, I’d like to keep the musical theme going, since it’s what I know best. From time to time I plan on making a write up on what I consider to be lesser-known gems of my collection, whom most of you most likely haven’t heard me ranting about. If you have, then this should all be review, and I’m sorry for that.

This first entry in what will most likely become a series will be on what I consider to be the absolute best band I’ve seen live while abroad, and by far one of the most fun, addicting, and earworm-worthy bands I’ve come across in years. Again, you most likely haven’t heard of them, but you should have! They are Vancouver’s own, the Dreadnoughts.

I should note that about a week and a half prior to their playing Geneva, I had never heard of them at all. In all honesty, I did not know a band like them could exist. They’re celtic, they’re punk, they’re salty-as-sailors, and they have a song about the Kraken! Sure, I’ve seen and Flogging Molly, the Dropkick Murphys, and even regrettably dabbled with the Pogues and Dubliners, but I could not have fathomed that celtic music could ever be this good. Their loadout is pretty standard celtic punk rock fare: drummer, bassist, singer/guitarist, viola/accordion player, and a dreadlocked and pierced mandolin wielding demon from the bowels of British Columbia.

What separates them from the rest of the Irish-tinged punkers is that they not only sing songs about drinking (a good third of their catalogue), they sing about sailors, ships, hardships arising from sailing, not to mention they also work in legitimate traditional sea shanties into their studio and live offerings. What also tends to set them apart is that the more exotic instrumental fare is not pushed into the background outside of the intro/outro, a pattern I’ve notice some other more celtic bands following. The guitar almost seems to be in the background, and the bass….. well, that guy’s probably just taking a drink of Jack Daniels from a Swedish hipster. I’ll explain, promise.

Before I get too off-topic, the dreadnoughts are a band you’ll love to drink to, and when you see them live, drink with. It’s music for pumping your fist, bellowing along to the songs, and maybe getting a wobbly skank or two in before the buzzer. Before I elaborate on my dreadnought-fuelled adventure, I think it’s only right if I throw up a link to their single, the wonderful and catchy Antarctica, off their album “legends never die.”

I must preface this tale with the disclaimer that yes, we did start off the night with Amsterdam Maximators, the most foul, vile substance known to man. It’s swill, but it does the job. Ask for it by name, kids!

Also, the concert was…. last June. Any details I can still recall is either a testament to my photographic memory, or the impact their live show has. Doctors once told me I had a photographic memory, but those photos were polaroids which fade with time, so I’m guessing it’s the band.

All the same, when you’re amongst good people, even horrid liquids can’t ruin the evening. To say the club they were playing at was small would be an understatement. It’s easy enough to find, once you know where you’re going, but the size and the heat is not something you could judge from the outside. Tiki’s Pub, known by many a Genevan as one of the premiere establishments dispensing punk rock and decent irish beer, is one of the finest places I’ve ever had the pleasure of entering.

The area where the bands perform is separated from the bar, so you don’t necessarily have to pay cover to see a band, if you want to just have a drink. The opposite is true if you’re myself or my friend Jeb, you go to the pub, decide you don’t feel like paying to see the band, and sit on the bar side having a few drinks, while listening to the slightly muffled concert going on in the room beside you.

Yeah, yeah, it’s like stealing the concert, it’s the personification of the pirate bay. whatever. When we did that, the Flatliners somehow left the GTA and found themselves in Geneva. We snuck in and caught the last couple songs, and they more or less sucked, so it was no big loss.

Moving on.

We got to the club sometime during the opener’s set. We finished our drinks outside, talking loudly in English, as the drinks loosened our tongues, and impaired our ability to control our volume. We were remarking on how the poster for the show said the Dreadnoughts were a ska band. It was this point that a man began speaking to us, with more piercings in his face than a Hot Topic management team. We began talking about how that simply wasn’t true, and I noticed he kept using “we” when referring to the band. It dawned upon me that this was a person of interest. I then mustered up the courage to ask if he was in fact, “the mandolin guy”. Sure enough, my semi-fanboy-semi-retarded comment struck gold, and he was in fact whom I surmised.

We got to talking, the typical “why are you in Geneva”, “where are you from”, “how do you like it here/in Europe” back and forth, eventually being joined by the whole of the band outside. All in all, they were tremendously cool guys, nice as all outdoors, and jokes went all around. The only other thing that really has stuck with me was how bad the bassist smelled. I mean, I’m not the type to judge body odour, we’ve all had our off days, but this man STUNK. I can’t imagine he showered in several weeks, perhaps a month. He also wore a filthy thermal-underwear type shirt with some slogan he scrawled on it in sharpie. He was also about 2.5m tall, and could have broken me in half with just twitch of his index finger. It was almost like in a cartoon, and at the time, I probably swore I could see the stink lines.

The set itself was tremendous. One thing I hadn’t mentioned is that the small room where the band plays is probably about 7×7 metres, no windows, one door, and no ventilation. To say it was 30 degrees inside would be fairly accurate, if not a lowballed estimate. The maddening heat did not slow them down at all, and they played more or less all the gems I expected. I kept calling for the song about the kraken, “Mary the one-eyed prostitute”, but they neglected to work that into the set somewhere. My guess is that they were surprised anyone even knew their songs over here. Joke was on them though! I had been listening to their catalogue non-stop for the previous 10 days. The only time I wasn’t listening to them was when I was in class, or eating lunch. Anyways, this is what I remember:

Antarctica
Roll the Woodpile Down
Elizabeth
Old Maui
Hottress
Ivanhoe
The West Country
Samovar
and somewhere in the middle was a Pogues cover. I didn’t care for it much, since I don’t like the Pogues.

Now, I realize these titles mean all of nothing to you, but I strongly encourage you to consider this a sort of “Best of” of their catalogue, and seek these songs out however you can. You’ll be glad you did, and you can say thanks by raising a glass with me next time I see you.

Highlights of the show, other than the songs were:

Towards the end, Steph even showed up, which was excellent, since it’s hard enough to convince her to see a band I like that she doesn’t know, and I’ll take a win in that category whenever I can. I even got a stellar t-shirt afterwards to sweeten the deal. New favourite shirt? You betcha.

For me, the dreadnoughts hold a very special place in my heart. Maybe it was the heat, maybe it was the Maximators. The combination of tiny venue, great band, great personalities, and Swedish hipsters made me feel like I did when I was still going to shitty local shows to see bands like Closer to Closure and AEX. At just about 24 years old, I’m in no place to be getting all nostalgic for the days of old, but the dreadnoughts just make the stars align for me.

Tomorrow, I might try my hand at a shorter posting, we’ll see how that pans out. Sorry for another essay, I’m just getting the hang of this. Also, all nice colour photos credit of some random’s flickr page I found through google image search.

If you made it this far, danke.

Dal 11 al 13 Settembre siamo andati a Londra per partecipare al torneo europeo più importante di sempre dedicato al mondo dei picchiaduro.

Team Italy

Riporto qualcosa che avevo scritto all’aereoporto ma che per bontà divina è stato impossibile postare.
Vado tutto a memoria, quindi se c’è qualche errore TS

- HD Remix:
Unici partecipanti italiani io e zio Spinal, il gran culo vuole che ci mettano nello stesso girone (erano 8 gironi mi sembra da 5-6 giocatori ognuno) ma Fugo va subito a protestare con gli organizzatori e quindi mi spostano nel pool #7.
Primo match lo gioco contro un Honda, match-up fuckato per me e perdo di pochissimo facendo una cazzata. Dopo gioco con Fulan battendolo, mi regala un sorriso forzato e una stretta di mano. Poi con un altro tizio che il giorno prima stava beastando da schifo al Casinò con Blanka, a mia sorpresa me la gioco benissimo e batto anche lui. Gioco con un Sagat e Ryu battendo anche loro. Vinco anche il penultimo match salendo a 4 vittorie e quindi con qualificazione quasi assicurata per la prossima fase.
Aggiungono all’ultimo momento un ulteriore giocatore e gli fanno giocare tutti i match di fila, quando è il mio turno contro di lui prima del match vero e proprio setto i pulsanti, chiedo a lui e mi risponde che è apposto (infatti aveva giocato anche prima) quindi riavvio al select screen.
A metà del primo round grida “Stop! Stop!”, per farla breve aveva un tasto settato male, il giudice gli dice chiaramente “Hai avuto l’occasione di settare i tasti”, dopo un battibecco tra i due il giudice mi dice di ricominciare il match. Io protesto dicendo che il regolamento prevedeva altro ma lui (o lei? Visto che era Andromeda.. lol) non ne vuole sentire, re-starto innervosito e gioco da schifo perdendo. Alla fine finisco 3° e quindi non passo il girone per un soffio, rosico da schifo e quando il giudice mi dice “I’m sorry” neanche gli rispondo e me ne vado.
Nei top8 è andato un giocatore (mi sfugge il nome a memoria) che io avevo battuto nei gironi.
La mia avventura si ferma qui per una cazzata, ma ho giocato davvero bene vincendo 4 match su 6. Peccato davvero.

Le finali non le ho viste quindi boh

Aspettavo con ansia il team tournament di HD e Turbo per fare rivalsone, ma purtroppo non l’hanno fatto -_-”

-SFIV:
Inizio a giocare alle 10.30 di sera dopo tutto il giorno che ero ad aspettare che iniziassero i pools, gioco dimmerda e male e quindi non passo. Questa volta colpa mia e quindi è stato giusto che non sono andato oltre.
Neanche Iconverse e Pupil passano i gironi.

Daddario dopo i gironi capita al primo match con Ryan Hart, perde 2-1 di pochissimo all’ultimo round. Fuori dal torneo ma menzione d’onore per lui.

Sean innervosito (gli hanno rubato lo stick) e quindi non passa. Fuori da questa fase anche Fugo, Spinal e gli sloveni.

Shirl sul grande schermo nei TOP8 europei. Primo match contro V-Ryu (Gouki), se la gioca molto bene e passa in semifinale insieme a Zak, Ryan e Ricky TTT.

Semifinale Shirl Vs. Ryan Hart:
match tiratissimo, sembrava difficile ma il nostro Lord Bukiong ha rilasciato tutto il suo potere e riesce a fare quello che non sembrava fattibile. In finale, con grande classe.

Semifinale Zak Vs. Ricky TTT:
Il tizio spagnolo usava un Sagat in maniera veramente molto strana, ha sbagliato tantissimo ma alla fine grazie a qualche scimmiata random e scelte discutibili riesce a mettere in difficoltà l’inglese e va dritto in finale.

Gli inglesi rosicano ABBESTIA visto che non si aspettavano nè Shirl nè lo spagnolo in finale, ammutoliti dalle nostre grida di incitamento.

Grand Final:
Tutti erano convinti del risultato, ma purtroppo Shirl ormai scarico gioca male e perde contro il Sagat spagnolo. La folla non applaude e lo spagnolo ci rimane visibilmente male (e vorrei vedere).

Dopo la fine del torneo tutti gli inglesi che durante i 3 giorni erano stati coltellissimi con noi italiani vengono a fare i complimenti con Shirl e con tutti noi per il team Italia.
Un’organizzatore scatta una foto solo con gli italiani e dopo con tutti quanti insieme per ricordo.

Diverse persone hanno detto che sono rimaste dispiaciute per il risultato e che non credevano davvero di vedere lo spagnolo al primo posto, quindi la mia impressione di prima non era sbagliata..

Btw grandissima trasferta, a parte le cose sfortunate che ci sono capitate (non parlo solo del torneo) è stata un’esperienza veramente bella bella

Ryan Hart che per tutto il giorno delle finali ogni volta che passava mi pancava e salutava quando ha perso contro Shirl non ha salutato nessuno e se ne è andato. MVB
Prima di andare via ero fuori a parlare con una mia amica e la ragazza di Zak (cosplay di Sakura) e stavamo parlando, esce lui saluta loro e io faccio “Bye bye man”, lui mi guarda, si volta e se ne va insieme alla tipa senza salutarmi. LOL
La ragazza invece è veramente simpatica e durante i 3 giorni abbiamo giocato e scherzato senza problemi.

Tutti gli altri invece come già detto alla fine si sono rivelati veramente ok, simpatici e scherzosi, ma predecentemente ad ogni sguardo era una fottuta scintilla

Un enorme saluto al team sloveno, in gamba e tosti da dio

Momenti divertenti durante l’intervista a Shirl e Sean, con Fugo che faceva da interprete. Raziel aspettiamo il video con ansia

Bella a Spinal, ci conoscevamo da anni ma non ci eravamo mai incontrati dal vivo, ancora mi chiedo dove siano finiti quei dannati fogli

Note di dolore:
purtroppo la tempistica nella gestione dei tornei è stata veramente discutibile, con tornei che iniziavano 3-4 ore di ritardo e team tournament di SFIV che alla fine è stato sospeso.
Location lontanissima e nel nulla ma tutto sommato grande ed adatta per ospitare un evento del genere.
Nonostante ciò gli organizzatori si sono dimostrati disponibili agli sditamenti vari dei partecipanti.
La prossima volta speriamo che gestiscano questi aspetti meglio, ecco.

Ci sono sicuramente tante altre cose da dire ma per il momento è tutto, scusate se ho scritto da schifo ma sono più di 24ore che non dormo..

Bonus:
> Foto
> Video

In our recent article “Investors are still climbing up the wall of fear” we have stated: “Many of the major world indices are highly correlated and move in tandem following a move in the same direction and forming a similar pattern in time, at least in 60-70% of the observations. There is quite some research done and available on the Internet on this stock market “synchronicity” phenomenon. In the current bullish counter trend since March 2009 many of the world indices are moving in tandem, nicely following a similar path and pattern in time.”  

Just a few days ago, on September 11th 2009, Floyd Noris from The New York Times published an article “Around the World, Stock Markets Fell and Rose, Together” on this intermarket correlation and with statistics from Bloomberg which underpins our findings on stock markets to correlate. For your further reading, please find below the link to Floyd Noris article and the statistics from Bloomberg showing that for the G-20 countries around the world the performance of the stock market indices in the last year are all showing similar performance and behaviour.

Source:
Around the World, Stock Markets Fell and Rose, Together
FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, September 11, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/12/business/12charts.html

Will the stock markets around the world continue their current performance of the last six months? It is highly unlikely; a correction is pending. As I mentioned in our recent articles there are many reasons to expect the stock markets will probably finish the current trend in the next few weeks to come. The stock market is highly over-bought, but this can be the case for quite some time, even for some weeks or months. So, it is not yet fully clear whether the next move will signal the end of the current counter trend (probably a wave C of 4) or that the next move downwards still will be a smaller counter trend in a larger up trend (probably a wave C of 4). In our next article we will post our opinion on the current Stock Market position and a projection in the very near future based on our latest research into natural cycles and the Elliott Wave theory. If you want to be kept up-to-date on our cycle research and commentaries please subscribe to our newsletter below now.

If your interested in being kept up-to-date to our endeavors please post your interests here and I will put you on our mailing-list.

© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer.

In last week’s article we mentioned: “The S&P 500 show signs that a top is pending on a relatively short term. Stochastic indicator (not shown in chart) is overbought. The slope of the trend is getting steeper and steeper, and the trend is stalling as Bears and Bulls are now fighting against each other. This could take some time. … We are skating on thin ice. As you can see in the S&P500 chart we assume the market is now moving into completing a wave C of 4 of some degree, after which a market correction of considerable time (e.g.at least a month) is to be expected….”

Since last week the S&P500 came down a bit, but the Elliott waves showed clear signs of a counter trend (3 waves) instead of a 5 wave impulse trend. This shows we are still in the end phase of wave C of 4 of some degree. We also made a higher low, although this could still be part of a larger corrective pattern.

There are multiple scenario’s possible how wave c of 4 will unfold; too many to post into this small article. Unless the bottom of 2 September is not broken I expect the market to head sideways to upwards, on a possibly steep, slippery & volatile road and could at some point break or reach the highs of August this year.

In the case the bottom of 2 September is broken, we will have to see if the market is still in a prolonged correction phase or further unfolding into a 5 step impulsive wave since the highs of August 28th.

We could already have experienced the top at the end of August. Until we clearly unfold a 5 step impulsive wave trend we do not know if this is really the case. The signs so far still indicates we are in a small counter trend of a larger trend upwards.

From a cycle perspective, the dominant cycles we are following still point into mid September as a possible time target to complete wave C of 4. On the daily and weekly chart of the S&P 500, as shown below, the composite cycles head into mid to end September for their respective turns (70% probability). Various planetary and a Delta phenomenon cycle turn of a large degree are due in this time frame as well. So, this all fits into a scenario we are still unfolding the wave C of 4.

Daily chart S&P500

Weekly Chart S&P500

The current market position of the S&P 500 applies to most of the world indices, like the FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, German Dax and Dutch AEX and many others, as I explained in last week and earlier posts.

If you allow +- 1 week for the weekly forecast, this cycle turn then could well extend into beginning of October as I mentioned in my earlier post. We simply do not know right now.

From the pattern of the weekly chart, for the longer term, I would not be surprised if we are now unfolding the head of a larger Heads and Shoulders pattern, but it is still too early to tell.

Be aware, the current market position isn’t easy to read. Many experienced traders and market commentators already called in a top several times in the last three months. Be patient. We will have to watch how the last phase of wave 4 will unfold first, before we can draw any further conclusions.  Stay tuned and take care!

If your interested in being kept up-to-date to our endeavors please post your interests here and I will put you on our mailing-list.

© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer.

Many of the major world indices are highly correlated and move in tandem following a move in the same direction and forming a similar pattern in time, at least in 60-70% of the observations. There is quite some research done and available on the Internet on this stock market “synchronicity” phenomenon. In the current bullish counter trend since March 2009 many of the world indices are moving in tandem, nicely following a similar path and pattern in time. This stock market synchronicity phenomenon can be an aid in pinpointing the likely target in time or price for stock markets to change direction in the near future.

The current market position and recent trend of many of the world indices give reason to believe the world stock markets could change trend in tandem again any time from now.

The S&P500 market position

The S&P 500 show signs that a top is pending on a relatively short term. Stochastic indicator (not shown in chart) is overbought. The slope of the trend is getting steeper and steeper, and the trend is stalling as Bears and Bulls are now fighting against each other. This could take some time. Early bears are now stepping out or short the market, but the greed is high and some (new) investors are still climbing up this wall of fear as they do not want to miss the boat. Who will win?

The bears, I expect. We are skating on thin ice. As you can see in the S&P500 chart we assume the market is now moving into completing a wave C of 4 of some degree, after which a market correction of considerable time (e.g.at least a month) is to be expected.

All other major indices in the world are moving in the same direction and are forming similar patterns in price and time compared to the S&P500. Have a look at the charts of the UK FTSE 100, German Dax, Nikkei 225 and the Dutch AEX, as shown in the bottom part of this article. These are just a few examples; there are many other similar examples to find in the world indices.

Where is the market heading too?

Using different technical analysis techniques like: Andrew’s pitchfork resistance lines, regression channels (2 std. dev.) and Fibonacci retracements (wave1-3; Oct 07 – Mach 09) we are currently focusing on a highly probable target in price and time of mid September 2009. Each of the markets discussed in this article turned their direction in the past at the same time, all within 3-4 days from each other. Look at the respective tops (Oct 2007) and bottoms (March 2009) of the world indices as mentioned in this article. Will they do the same in mid September 2009?

The technical analysis time targets point into the same target range for most indices. Natural & planetary cycles, as discussed in our previous article of August 24th 2009, point into the same time target range for a likely change in market trend to occur. A Delta cycle turn is expected as well.  Also September is traditionally known, although there are good years, to have the worst stock market performance in the year. So, it could.

Below you will find a overview of the possible time range for an expected market turn in each of the markets mentioned:

S&P500: 25 aug – 25 sept. FTSE 100: 28 aug – 10 sept. DAX: 26 aug – 16 sept Nikkei 225: 26 aug – 16 sept AEX: 28 aug – 11 sept.

The price targets for the indices discussed are given in each of the charts in this article. It is highly likely markets will change trend within 3-4 days from each other.There is no guarantee we will hit at the exact time price and time target, but due to the patterns formed, the current market position and the correlation and the synchronicity between these markets it is highly likely the market will turn anywhere between now and end of September 2009, with a preference for mid September 2009 (+- 4 days).

Be aware! The current highs in the market are already within the minimum acceptable time and price range for an Elliott Wave c of 4 to be finalised. On the alternative scenario there is still some room for investors in some indices to further drive the index towards the upper part of the channel, but some other indices are already at that point but could consolidate in the mean time, even into early October at the latest. 

See the S&P500 chart as well as the charts on the FTSE 100, Dax, Nikkei 225 and the Dutch AEX on our preferred scenario.

Market Position of the World Indices

FTSE 100

Nikkei 225

German DAX

Dutch AEX

Conclusion

The current highs in the market of the last few days could well possibly fit with a potential market turn, and there is still some room in some indices to climb of the wall of fear towards the upper part of the channel, but the path will be slippery and steep.

If you are still long in this market it is perhaps wise to lock in your profit with a tight stoploss set on your positions. When the market turns it will likely be a volatile move against you and a time you do not expect it to happen.Take care and let the market decide when the top is in. Be careful in shorting these markets too early. Always wait for confirmation; there is plenty of time thereafter to reverse your position when a top is confirmed. Never trade without a stoploss; cut your losses short and let your profits run (until stopped out).Take care and be careful in your tradings.

Stay tuned, we will post more analysis in the coming weeks as to clarify further the most likely market position.

If your interested in being kept up-to-date to our endeavors please post your interests here and I will put you on our mailing-list.

© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer.

In last July’s preview we have stated that our forecasts: “clearly indicates a bullish trend throughout the summer until early September 2009. We also stated: “This will probably end the current cycle counter trend on a price level that is between 980 and 1150 on the S&P500, with a possible  mber 7th 2009 +- 4 days.”

All of the above already have become true. Although our proprietor hypothetical DMP model did a good job the forecasting the overall trend and direction, the market was more volatile than expected in some days, hence the price target was reached earlier than expected on the S&P500 and most other indices. As you may remember from my earlier posts all stock market indices, like the DopwJones, S&P500, DAX30, FTSE100, Nikkei225, Dutch AEX and many others move like a family in concert. Their trends and patterns are largely the same.

Based on past major cycles we haven’t reached yet the end of the current stock market counter trend move for the major market indices. See below chart based upon Gann’s Mater Time factor techniques there is still room for the stock market to rise into early September 2009, presuming the current downtrend is temporary and the uptrend will resume on it’s final and last wave approximately August 24th 2009 +- a few days to complete Wave C early to mid September.

We could have reached the top already, as cycles are know to contract or extend so that a wave C already is completed in the beginning of August.

I do not think this is very likely as the Elliott wave theory is very clear the last part of wave C should be a minimum of 62% from the first leg in wave C.  The minimum retracement of wave 1-3 since the top of 2007 should at least be 50% of the w1-3 move. So the most likely price target is between 1045 and 1121 with a likely time target of September 7th +- 4 days based upon major cycles form the past.

The dominant natural cycles we are closely following also indicate the next move downward will likely start around September 7th +- 4 days. See below chart.

As you can see from above chart the stock market is currently in a overbought situation, thus it is to be expected that we will experience some further downtrend the week ahead. In my opinion still a correction within a larger uptrend. We expect the market will likely recover from there around August 24th 2009 +- a few days, and possibly form a double top or higher top to finish the upward trend of the current dominant natural cycle.

Be careful in your trading. Stay tuned… We will post more analysis in the coming weeks as to clarify further the most likely market position.

If your interested in being kept up-to-date to our endeavors please post your interests here and I will put you on our mailing-list.

© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer.

We featured her a while ago in hopes that she will be the next big thing, except now that we see the album cover we digress. It’s worse than Sanjaya’s. This is just atrociously horrid. The typeface, the dog, the pose, the fashions, the background. Everything!

De Amsterdamse beurs gaat het komende halfjaar omhoog of blijft op zijn slechtst op het huidige ‘plateau’ hangen. Vermogensbeheerders en pensioenfondsen, met name uit Amerika, hebben zich de laatste maanden als koper in de markt gemeld voor vroeg-cyclische fondsen als uitzendconcern Randstad. Dat is een stimulans voor de koersen. Dat zeggen vier aandelenspecialisten en -analisten van grote banken, die door Het Financieele Dagblad zijn gevraagd naar de verwachte ontwikkelingen op de beurs. Drie van hen noemen concrete cijfers…. Meer over: Kenners zien hogere koersen aandelen op AEX

Toen de beurs alleen maar omhoog leek te kunnen gaan waren banken er als de kippen bij om iedere koerswinst op hun beleggingen te mogen boeken in de administratie. De winsten werden gigantisch en op die enorme winsten konden ze weer extra geld creëren, waarmee nog meer geld kon worden gecreëerd, enzovoort, enzovoort. Dit was een perfect systeem om de bomen tot in de hemel te laten groeien. Tot de beurs in elkaar klapte.
Toen moesten banken ineens ook hun verliezen boeken en dat deed pijn.
De hefboom omhoog werkte immers net zo hard als hefboom omlaag. De banken moesten gigantisch afboeken op posities die ze in bezit gehouden hadden en die eerst soms wel 80% meer waard waren geweest. Papieren afboekingen heet het dan, maar de banken vertelden er niet bij dat het feitelijk ook papieren bijboekingen waren geweest.

Lees de rest van: Banken passen boekhouding aan

Zo te zien zijn we vandaag wat enthousiaster dan aan het begin van de week. 257 gezien, dus het verlies op de week valt eigenlijk mee. Nog geen correctie eigenlijk, is dat niet een beetje zorgelijk? Expiratie boven 255 lijkt nu wel een gegeven in elk geval. 255,43 vind ik wel mooi, maar het zou zomaar hoger kunnen worden. Of we vandaag nog 257 terugzien lijkt me lastig, maar alles kan.

De jongensdroom van rijden in een Porsche is trouwens binnenkort over; ipv dat Porsche Volkswagen overneemt na de short squeeze affaire een paar maanden terug, gaat het nu Volkswagen wordenj die Porsche overneemt. Porsche bezwijkt onder de schulden die zijn gemaakt om de Volkswagen aandelen in te kopen die de short squeeze hebben ingeluid. Het kan verkeren.

Jongen, wat wil je als je groot wordt ? Rijden in een Porkswagen! Zou je die nog in Islamitische landen kunnen verkopen ?

toch maar weer langzaam aan proberen hier weer iets zinvols van te maken. Niet te ambitieus en zo.
Vandaag is het heksen expiratie dag, einde week, maand, Q en H. Quadruple Witching Hour tussen 15.30 en 16.00 .

Voor vandaag dus alleen de verwachting en een grafiek van de Open Interest Juni 2009. Het Urban Legend verhaal over de OI is bekend neem ik aan ?

Verwachting:

Open : 253,75
Day lo : 250,43
Day hi : 256,39
Close : 255,70

Verwachte expiratie waarde AEX : 255,43

Vanaf volgende week ga ik weer proberen jullie dagelijks te vermaken; misschien dat ik dan weer over de 180 dagen dip ben qua niet meer roken. Ik word er gek van!

Het bieden van extreem veel opties en aandelen zou topmanagers moeten binden. Marcel Smits bewijst het tegendeel, want na 5 jaar vertrekt hij bij KPN en daarom heeft hij zijn aandelen en opties maar even verkocht.

Het ging om 316.076 opties, hem toegewezen onder het ‘lange termijn beloningssysteem’, goed voor een kleine 3 miljoen euro cash.

Lees de rest van: Topmanager KPN vertrekt met bonus

Vooral in Amerika begint het idee weer post te vatten dat onroerend goed goedkoop is. In sommige streken zijn de prijzen van huizen de laatste anderhalf jaar enorm gedaald en nu de daling tot staan is gekomen, lijkt dat voor enkele consumenten in te houden dat ze ‘dus’ weer omhoog zullen gaan.

Die voor hen zo logische stijging is echter maar de vraag.
Niet alleen is het de vraag welke Amerikanen nog geld hebben voor die huizen, maar ook mag niet vergeten worden dat tussen 2010 en 2012 heel veel hypotheken aan hun maximale tijd van verlaagde rente gaan komen. Er zijn hypotheken afgegeven waarbij je de rente mocht laten schieten. Je betaalt nu dus nog altijd niets, want je laat gewoon de schuld oplopen.
Het hypotheek bedrag wordt verhoogd met iedere maand rente die je niet hebt betaald. Dat kan tot een maximum.

Lees de rest van: Onroerend goed geen koopje

Navigatiebedrijf TomTom gaat nieuw kapitaal ophalen door de uitgifte van nieuwe aandelen. Met de verwachte opbrengst van ruim 400 miljoen euro wil de onderneming haar zware schuldenlast verlichten.

De aandelenuitfifte krijgt de vorm van een claimemissie, waarbij zittende aandeelhouders tegen korting stukken kunnen bijkopen. De vier oprichter van TomTom waaronder topman Harold Goddijn en zijn vrouw, nemen 169,3 miljoen van de claimemissie voor hun rekening. Toch zien zij hun gezamelijke meerderheidsbelang van 51,5% terugvallen naar ongeveer 47,2%.

Lees de rest van: Uitgifte nieuwe aandelen TomTom

Toen de crisis op haar hoogtepunt was, hebben veel banken dankbaar de Tarp reddingsboei gegrepen die door de Amerikaanse overheid werd toegeworpen. Die reddingsboei kwam echter met een aantal voorwaarden. Voorwaarden zoals een beperking van de looneisen van de topmanagers.

Het is nu dus niet zo vreemd dat de banken er alles aan doen om die steun van de overheid terug te betalen. Ze willen immers weer verder gaan met graaien en dat kan alleen als die reddingsboei, die aanvoelt als een molensteen, om hun nek weg is.

Lees de rest van: Banken betalen TARP steun terug

dollar trekt lekker aan en de bankaandelen redden gisteravond de USA sessie. In Europa zijn we eigenlijk voor niets gezakt, dus we zullen vandaag wel weer terug stijgen naar ongeveer 265. Is geen rocket scientist voor nodig. Een deel van mijn inspiratieloosheid komt wellicht doordat er eigenlijk weinig gebeurt. En als er al wat gebeurt is het noch ludiek noch rationeel uit te leggen. Waarom werden de bank aandelen opeens meer waard om 21.03 ? Who knows ?

Iemand maakte mij erop attent dat mijn creatief zijn issue niet eens door gebrek aan roken hoeft te komen, maar zeer zeker veroorzaakt kan zijn door mijn medicijnen, die ik ook sind sbegin januari inneem (die datum valt samen met de grote afname in creatieve energie, en is ook de datum dat ik het roken noodgedwongen opgaf).
In elk geval vind ik elke dagopening een marteling en vraag ik me af welke toegevoegde waarde het heeft dat ik er zelfs over nadenk.

Neemt niet weg dat ik het nmodig vind te bedenken wat de AEX morgen gaat doen; we hebben om 16.00 een macro. Geen spannende, voorraden bij de groothandel. Is onderdeel van de echte besdrijfsvoorraad cijfers die later in de maand volgen.

Voor de dag zie ik het volgende gebeuren :

Open : 264,35
Day lo : 262,3
Day hi : 266,75
Close : 265,35

niet echt veel te doen dus