This year many young and talented directors made their debut. Renzil D’Silva is one among them. He succeed to utilize the chance and entertained audience very well. Renzil’s Kurbaan has raised lot of hypes in Bollywood because of many reasons.

But the film lived up to the expectations and bagged a huge success at Box Office. Saif Ali Khan and Kareena Kapoor were acted together in this movie.This is the first action movie from Karan Johar. He has produced this movie on his Dharma Productions banner.

Before this movie Renzil has worked as writer for Aamir Khan’s Rang De Basanti.

Well that was a pretty good start to what should be some continued downward movement. If these tops conform to the past moves, we should see around 9 down days ( not all down just all trending down) from here. However, if this was truly a top, I would expect a little different action. After hours Dell missed earnings, badly we could certainly feel some repercussions from that. Everything was weak today but especially tech, housing, energy and financials all mkt. leading sectors. Let’s look at some charts:

For some reason, all my drawings have disappeared and it won’t let me draw on here now. But the main thing I want you to note is that we formed a tweezer bottom here. Not a symmetrical tweezer which I think is a stronger formation, but it is here. You can see we gave up huge gains from early in the day, and if we continue to move up from here and right now it looks like we might, then we will have broken that megaphone pattern.

Huh? How did those little blue boxes get in there? They weren’t there when I captured this. Well you can see that I am pointing several things out here. Every one of these tops had a candle like we saw today near the very beginning of their down move. Those are shown on the top arrows. The bottom arrows show that the moves are ending with a huge down day. You can also see the bbs are widening, the same thing that preceded all this down turns. I would have liked to see more v, but it is better than the last two days, and it definitely gives it room to move up.

The SPX stalled out near the low form 4 days ago. I also think it will stall out around the 20 ma, but I think it will eventually move down to the bbb. It will have to pierce through several support lines to do so, and that will require some v with the moves.

The NAS found support right at the 2142 line. But it did gap beneath the short-term up trend line and stayed far beneath it. Note that the 20 ma is moving quickly beneath the 50 ma and the RSI is getting ready to cross down. I would classify this support as moderate support, but strong resistance.

We can still see a double h&S pattern here if we take out this 575 support. To me, this is still the most bearish of the indices. Watch the RSI and if this lower high holds, then we are going to trend down beneath the 20 line.

The UUP has really been puzzling the last few days… today is no different. I do see that we are forming a nice wedge, the 20 ma is moving up, but v is decreasing. Now I would give the edge to the upside in this wedge, but we will have to see some v with it, and I imagine v will become more and more scarce as we move into the holidays.

I show this chart once in a while, today it is a reader’s request. I love doing requests so please don’t hesitate to ask. Looking at new charts is always exciting ( geek, I know!). Now, you see the rising RSI, you see the obvious support, which has once again held, but what I really like is that the v moves down into the down moves and up into the up moves. It is a thing a beauty! (geek, I know!). Also note the 20 ma has crossed above the 50, but it also appears the 20 ma acted as resistance. I think we are seeing a potential inverse h&s here, which if it comes to fruition, could lead to a breakout. The neckline will be at 13.95.

The QID ran smack dab into resistance with decent v today. I would be much more bullish on this if it had managed to close above 21.21. However, this could be one of those that takes another run at it, and we need to continue to see more v.

I like this because it seems to just bounce right off of the bbb. Right now it stalled out on the 20 ma, but I think it continues down, hits the bbb and sits there for 2-3 days and rallies up again.

This came from Cash21, he points out that we have seemed to top here on GRMN. I would have liked it better if we had hit 33, but I have to agree with him. What is great is that you can play this and put a stop at 32.50, yesterday’s high, a good strong stop. The potential downside is huge, I am thinking $26. Great profit / loss ratio. Thanks CASH21, great chart.

MS is on a critical point, the up trend and 50 ma. Watch this closely, if you see a break of the 50, with v and you can find a good entry point, this would be another great short. I would like to see the bbb start turning down, like the tbb has already done. But the 50 ma makes a great stop on any short.

Finally, here is a long play from a couple weeks ago. I hope you got out several days ago if you played this long, I know at least one person did. MRO did find support on the 50 ma today, but with the nice v pop, I think this is just a breather and we are heading to the $31 area.

In closing: Almost all the charts look pretty bearish, naturally after a day like today. But I believe we have put in our interim top, and I don’t think we will know if this was the “top” for at least a week or two. I am still dismayed by the lack of v, but after many hours of trading therapy I am coping. Remember the market makers are going to do all they can to make as many people feel pain tomorrow as they can by watching the highest amount of options possible expire worthless. We could have a very blah day tomorrow, even slightly up, but that would be normal for this current trend. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Kurbaan is one of the most awaited film in Bollywood for this year. Trailer and stills were increased the expectations. Karan Johar is coming with full length action movie. Renzil D’Silva is the director to this action flick.

He was the writer to the sensational film Rang De Basanti. He has surprised every one with the screenplay and story narration in Rang De Basanti. It was never seen script narration he has introduced with Rang De Basanti.

Aks was his first movie as writer. With Kurbaan he is going to made his debut as director. Bollywood audience who enjoyed his magic screenplay in Rang De Basanti is curiously waiting for more magics in his own direction.

Kurbaan is set to release on November 20th. Saif Ali Khan and Kareena Kapoor were paired opposite each other in this film.

Okay, so, I looked it up, and so don’t go and comment that both are acceptable ways of saying “Veteran,” because I already know that yes, technically, both ways are “acceptable.”  Well, I don’t accept it.  It is not Veh-trin.  If it was, then that is how it would be spelled.  It is Vet-er-in.  If you say it fast, you hardly notice it’s 3 syllables, but it is.  Yes, it’s THREE syllables.

For the record, there is no such word as “veh-trin-arian.”  Same deal, people.  It has SIX syllables, not five.

In similar god awful language bastardizing, it is NOT “out the window,” “down the shore,” or especially”aks.”  You go “out to dinner,” but throw something “out OF the window.”  Better yet, you “defenestrate” an object, but that’s a whole different subject.

I know the whole Jersey thing excludes a lot of people from ridicule when saying “down the shore,” but still, it is not the same thing as saying “down the street.”  If it was, then it would be perfectly acceptable to say “I’ve gotta get someting down the grocery store,” or “Let’s go out the movies tonight.”

And this whole “aks” thing is completely ridiculous.  When someone says “he aks me a question” I feel like responding with a fist.  Did you then respond with an “awsner?”

So, in “ca-kloo-shun (don’t get me started),” thank a veteran or the family of one, if you know someone who helps protect this county…they deserve it.

–~r

AK Steel (AKS) has been increasing prices on its steel products since the beginning of summer (click here for a summary). The pricing for December delivery continues the trend:

“AK Steel has advised its customers that a $185 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for electrical steel products shipped in December 2009…AK Steel’s surcharges are based on reported prices for raw materials and energy used to manufacture the products, with the October 2009 purchase cost used to determine the December 2009 surcharges.”

(announced November 2, 2009).

It seems hard to believe that some of the best deals in the home buying market can’t be purchased by the average person who would use them as a home for their family. Because of condition a substantial portion of Lender Owned Homes can’t be financed. This has been true for years.                  

Hope is now on the horizon with foreclosure filings at record levels — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were reported on 937,840 properties in the third quarter, a 5 percent increase from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 23 percent from Q3 2008 – the government through the Federal Housing Administration, FHA, has taken positive action.

FHA is ramping up its 203K program for the first time in years. The FHA 203K program allows homebuyers to finance a home that is at least one year old and get additional money to fix it up and bring it up to standards. The FHA doesn’t just give borrowers a blank check however, what it does is provide a system of draws against work calculated into the original mortgage when the home is purchased.

If you’re buying a bank owned or other property that will need substantial repairs the 203K process allows you to obtain bids and calculate approximate needed repairs prior to purchase and then after closing use the money to pay licensed contractors. It’s important to note that the program is not designed for “do it yourselfers” since in the process you will be expected to get real bids from real contractors. Helping you in negotiations for a Lender Owned Home and finding financing that will work well in the sale is just one of the critical ways Dick Thackston and his team can help you.

 Helping buyer’s find and purchase, defaulted properties, REO’s, has been a big part of Dick Thackston’s business since – well it feels like forever! Dick works with the other 34 New Hampshire, Vermont & Massachusetts agents in his 3 offices helping buyers find and close on Short Sales and REO properties. To see all the homes on the market today in New Hampshire, Vermont & Massachusetts visit www.dickthackston.com or give him a call today at 603.283.0622.

These are this Wednesday’s top 10 seen analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations which we have seen from Wall Street research calls:

AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.
BP plc (NYSE: BP) Cut to Hold at Citigroup; Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Ceradyne (NASDAQ: CRDN) Raised to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
IMS Health (NYSE: RX) Cut to Underperform at BofA/Merrill
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
SunTrust (NYSE: STI) Raised to “Top Picks” list at Citigroup.
Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) Raised to Buy from Sell at Citigroup.
Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 28, 2009

4:35pm

A Long’s worst nightmare. They sold AAPL today. Is AAPL going to fill that gap at $190.00, which I just noticed is a round # high.

There are things going on in this pull back that we haven’t seen for a while. $TRAN is almost all the way back to the 10/2 low. Same for the $BKX, $SOX, and the $RUT. XLF is now 15cents away from getting into the candle from 10/2. $SPX looks like it wants the 50MA.

A lot of people are saying that this pull back is partially due to strength in the dollar. I don’t know if there is any single factor, except for profit taking by the pro’s at a very opportune time. However, UUP looks like a buy right in this area. Not a recommendation but UUP hasn’t looked like a buy in quite a while. Volume certainly has found it’s way into the ETF.

AKS down over 8% today on easily 2x average volume. X down just shy of 8%.

We have a 3rd day of Distribution and that hasn’t happened in a long time.

V getting the smack down AH.

I day traded some TZA today and picked up a few shares of DRV, which I’m going to try and hang on to.

Be very careful. Retail longs continue to get trapped by the exiting pro’s as the market’s mean side has come to the surface.

* * * *

5:50pm

Current SG status for the $SPX:

Strengthening, confirmed, Phase IV, sell signal.

I am compelled by my data to call this a ‘climax’ signal, but with extreme caution. I will explain below.

* * * *

Current SG status for the $COMPQ:

Strengthening, confirmed, Phase IV, sell signal.

This is the strongest sign of negative strength I have on record, therefore, I am compelled to label this a ‘climax’ signal, but with extreme caution.

* * * *

I have to go with the data. The SG’s produced the strongest signals I have going back to March of 09′. However, there is a chance that we’re entering a period similar to that of February 09′ when signals like these were common place. Since I have no way of knowing if these signals mean a February-like decline, or if they mean the end to this current decline, I plan to play the long side tomorrow but only as a day trade. I will look for any weakness early in the session and jump on board then with a small position. If I had more confidence, I would start a small position in the AH. If the market does bounce tomorrow, then perhaps that bounce may last more than a day. Perhaps the bounce will just keep on going and we’ll start a new rally leg, but I will believe that only when I see it.

I absolutely do believe that any bounce will be sold into heavily by the pro’s and by trapped retail longs, until proven otherwise.

Take a look at this weekly chart of IWM. IWM has broken the LT trend line from the March lows. It’s not the only one. XLF and the $SOX are also in the same shape and the $TRAN is the worst of all with its entire weekly candle below the LT trend line. In other words, the market is in some serious trouble and without some kind of confirmation if we do get a bounce, then that bounce has to be eyed with great suspicion.

Obviously, the market had a change of heart about V.

Be careful. Watch position size. Don’t take your eyes off those M Patterns. Only the paranoid survive.

These are this Friday morning’s top Wall Street analyst upgrades and positive research calls:

AK Steel (AKS) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Bristol-Myers (BMY) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Cree (CREE) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan
J.P. Morgan (JPM) Started as Strong Buy at Raymond James.
Lam Research (LRCX) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Marriott (MAR) Raised to buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Research in Motion (RIMM) Raised to Outperform at R.W. Baird.
Savient Pharma (SVNT) Raised to Outperformat Oppenheimer.
Spectra Energy (SE) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Viacom (VIA) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates each morning on analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
October 9, 2009

Bir cümlede veya mısrada kelime topluluklarının yerlerinin değiştirilmesiyle yapılan söz sanatına aks/akis denir. Tam olanı ve dahi eksik olanı vardır ve şu şekilde tanımlanabilir:

aks-i tam: Cümlenin iki parçası kalıp halinde yer değiştirir, ekleme ya da çıkarma yapılmaz. Yani cümle tersten okunduğunda da aynıdır.

“Mümkün değil Hudâyı bilmek de bilmemek de

Mâtem görünür şâdi şâdi görünür mâtem“

Nazîm

aks-i nakıs: Cümlede kelime topluluklarının yerleri bazı ekleme veya çıkarmalar yapılarak yer değiştirir.

“Hayrân oluyor kudretine, sun’una insan,

İnsan oluyor kudretine, sun’una hayrân”

İsmail Safa

Last week, I noticed media headlines screaming the horrible news that “Crude steel output in 2009 to hit lowest level in 40 years.” As I searched for the direct source of this quote from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), I stumbled upon its “Preliminary Report on Iron and Steel, Non-ferrous metal, and Fabricated metals Products Industry.” From my standpoint, the monthly data shown below clearly demonstrates that steel production likely bottomed in March/April and is in the middle of a rapid recovery (charts copied below). So, yes, when the year is all said and done, the aggregate numbers will look terrible – as will most aggregate economic data – but the current trend seems to suggest that some kind of recovery is in place.

Japanese steel production seems to have bottomed

The price of steel rose all summer and finally stumbled again in September. On Sept 4, Reuters reported: “Chinese spot steel prices fell 2.6 percent in their third consecutive weekly fall, led by construction steel, as major mills continued to cut prices on weakened demand following a steep price run-up in recent months. After a months-long rally to a 10-month high in early August, China’s steel prices turned lower and prices of benchmark hot-rolled coil fell.” Two weeks later, the Wall Street Journal had dour news about the U.S. steel industry: “Steel Prices Drop, Reversing Course in Sign Mills Ramped Up Too Quickly.” Specifically, “Hot-rolled steel, a benchmark grade that typically is processed into cars, building structures or appliances, cost about $600 to $620 a metric ton in August. Now it can be had for about $550-$570 a ton, a drop of about 8%.” However, the article also quotes the president of the American Institute for International Steel claiming that “Steelmakers overreacted in swiftly closing steel mills last year and in early 2009…they took out too much production.” Indeed, U.S. steelmakers increased production each of the previous 11 weeks.

Overall, it seems that the recent price decline remains a hiccup amidst an upward trajectory from an ugly bottom. The evidence from this summer’s bout of price increases suggest that demand for steel is firming and customers are absorbing a myriad of price increases (including surcharges). The list below is a sample of the wide array of price increases in steel-related products from this past summer. Given the stall noted for September, October’s round of earnings announcements will be critical in determining whether the upward momentum still has legs. Until then, it seems to me that the decline in steel prices and production has been arrested for now and further increases in demand will drive additional inflationary momentum in steel.

1. June 1: AK Steel (AKS) announces “…it will increase spot market prices for its carbon steel products by $20 per ton effective with new orders scheduled for delivery on July 1, 2009 and later.”
2. June 18: AKS announced “…it will increase spot market prices for all carbon and stainless flat rolled steel products.” The various price increases appear comprehensive in scope and type.
3. July 09: AKS announced “…it will increase spot market prices for its carbon steel products, effective with all new orders for August and September shipments. Base prices for hot rolled products will increase by $40 per ton. Base prices for cold rolled and coated products will increase by $50 per ton.”
4. July 23: Nuecor (NUE) announced during its earnings conference call that it would implement price increases for the first time in nine months: “With stronger demand, we are implementing price increases in each of our products for the first time in about nine months. These stronger business conditions have continued into July. Across all of our steel mill products, we believe the catalyst for this upturn in demand is the result of service centers completing their inventory, destocking cycle.” (Seeking Alpha transcripts)
5. July 23: Synalloy Corporation (SYNL) announced during its earnings conference call that “…surcharges have increased every month since May 2009, and our steel suppliers implemented a 6% price increase on May 1, 2009 and a second 6% price increase on July 1, 2009, which the industry thinks will be accepted in the marketplace.”
6. July 28: U.S. Steel (X) responded to an increase in demand by increasing prices: “We have began to bring up idle facilities inline with customer demand, and we have implemented price increases in our Flat-rolled and USSE segments in the third quarter.” (Seeking Alpha transcripts).
7. Jul 29: Arcelor Mittal (MT) announced during its earnings conference call that it expects increases in base prices in Europe. (Briefing.com)
8. July 30: AKS announced “…it will increase spot market prices for its carbon steel products by $40 per ton, effective with all new orders for September and October shipment.”
9. Aug 04: AKS announced “…it will increase base prices for all 200, 300 and 400 series flat rolled stainless steel products by 6% to 9%, depending upon the grade and product form, effective with shipments on August 30, 2009.”
10. Aug 06: Gerbau Ameristeel claims during its earnings conference call that “During the quarter, we saw a stabilization of volumes as destocking by our customers appears to be slowing, as well as a firming of steel prices across all steel products.”
11. Sept 01: AKS announced “…it will increase spot market prices for its carbon steel products, effective with all new orders. Base prices for hot rolled products will increase by $40 per ton. Base prices for cold rolled products will increase by $50 per ton. And, base prices for coated products will increase by $60 per ton.”

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: long X calls, STLD

Reasons:
Price below 10 week moving average
MACD divergence
Overbought.
same for fuqi – parabolic.

(If Trend is confirmed, 10 week below 30 week), add more.
note: take very small losses if I am wrong.

Es ist Wahlkampf – Und nachdem ich mit der KPÖ gegen die Veranstaltung des Hetzers Strache protestiert hatte, ging ich an dem Gratiskonzert der Grünen vorbei (Krautschädl und Bilderbuch), als ich mich eigentlich am Weg zu einer anderen Veranstaltung befand: Dem Respek-Festival, das aks, iks, vsstö, sj und spö Linz veranstalteten.

Unterm Lentos – das ist nämlich eine ziemlich feine Konzertlocation – machte dort gestern Markus Kienzl von den Sofa Surfers den Anfang. Der hatte leider recht stark unter dem Mangel an Besuchern zu leiden. Seine Beats waren zwar an sich mitreißend, aber da waren einfach noch zu wenige Menschen. Allerdings würde ich empfehlen, sich diesen Namen zu merken: Denn in richtiger Atmosphäre gehts zu der Mucke sicher ziemlich ab!

Dann übernahm Fiva MC die Bühne, eine der besten weiblichen MCs, die der deutsche Sprachraum je gesehen hat. Zusammen mit ihren DJ ____ füllte sich bei ihr der Bühnenraum schnell, war sie doch auch ewig auf Platz Eins der FM4-Charts und ist gerade in Linz recht bekannt, sind doch ihre Verknüpfungen mit Texta, dem Urgestein der linzer HipHop-Szene, recht eng.

Lucky Ali,the charming voice of his made him my favrite in no time.I admire the freshness and originality of his tracks and I prefer listening to his music to destress.
There is something mysterious in his ballad style tracks that keep me spellbound and I realise lately that I am also humming side by side. The lyrics are simple yet so soothing and I could always find one to suit my mood.I can’t tell you how much I like the instrument called Guitar,and I think nobody can make music out of it the way Lucky do.
There is no rush in the flow and and the serenity in each line is as soft as silk.My favrites include
- Anjaani rahon mein
-O sanam
-Behti nadi
-Kabhi aisa lagta hai
-Nahi rakhta dil mein
-Dekha hai aise bhi
-Tere mere saath jo hota hai

The list is incomplete though.These are only a few from his superb albums like Sifar,Aks,Meri jaan hindustan etc.

Lucky Ali lately tried his luck in acting too.After all he is the son of the legendry comedian Mehmood.But I personally feel that he should do what he does better….making music.Its been quite a long time since his last album and the wait has been too long for die-hard fans like me.But one thing that still amazes me is that many people still don’t recognise him.When I sang one of his songs in a college function,everybody asked who’s the artist.I strongly believe that he has not got the recognition that a guy like him deserves.

By Charles Rotblut
September 16, 2009

Though the economy has stabilized, third-quarter results for the majority of companies will still be below year prior levels. Per share profits for the S&P 500 are projected to fall 15.4%. The median company is forecast to report a 14% drop in per share earnings. (The difference being that the S&P 500 forecast is a weighted projection.) More than 340 companies may have experienced a year-over-year drop in profits. On a revenue basis, things are not much better. Median company sales are forecast to have dropped 7.2%.* More than 360 companies are expected to report a year-over-year drop in earnings.

It’s important to realize that during July and August 2008, the economy was in fairly good shape. Lehman did not collapse until September 2008. Furthermore, the credit crunch’s grip severely tightened over the 2-month span of September and October 2008. As a result, many companies are now facing tough comparisons, meaning year-over-over declines in profits now. It should be noted, however, that not all comparisons will be difficult. In fact, some industries are forecast to report actual earnings growth.

Industries Likely To Show Growth
Homebuilders
It may sound shocking, but homebuilders are likely to have some of the best year-over-year comparisons in terms of profitability.

There are 2 reasons for this. First, conditions in the housing industry were deteriorating last year, with mortgages becoming increasingly hard to get. Second, the housing market is now stabilizing, as is evidenced by the rising number of new and existing home sales.

This change will allow D.R. Horton (DHI), KB Home (KBH) and Pulte Homes (PHM) to encourage shareholders with bottom line improvements by 50% or more. The improvements are relative, however, since all 3 companies will report sizable losses for Q309.

Insurance
Several insurance companies could impress investors with double-digit growth. Though some, like Allstate (ALL) and Hartford Financial Services (HIG), have the benefit of prior-year losses, others like Travelers (TRV) and Loews (L) are experiencing true growth. (Revenues and earnings will rise for TRV and L).

The surprisingly calm hurricane season (fingers crossed that it stays this way) has helped property and causality insurers. Nearly all insurance companies have also benefited from the rebound in the financial markets. The economy is a drag, though there seem to be certain segments where premiums are rising.

Health Care
Despite all the talk about reform, profits for the entire medical sector continue to rise. The sector is less economically sensitive and less affected by swings in commodity prices. As result, several medical companies are likely growing both revenues and earnings this quarter. Those with the strongest growth rates will include Humana (HUM), Stericycle (SRCL), C.R. Baird (BCR), Celgene (CELG) and Gilead Sciences (GILD).

Industries Likely to Report Contraction
Commodity-Related
Commodity-related companies face the toughest year-over-year comparisons. Oil peaked in July 2008 and, though the commodity bubble deflated throughout the remainder of the quarter, profits were still very, very strong. As a result, energy and metals companies are projected to report significant drops in Q309 profits.

In the Energy sector, exploration & production (E&P) companies such as Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and EOG Resources (EOG) will report the biggest declines. Among metals companies, AK Steel (AKS), Nucor (NUE) and U.S. Steel (X) could all report losses after large profits in Q308.

Banks
Though government intervention has stabilized much of the financial sector, many banks remain unprofitable. High unemployment, a sustained high level of foreclosures and a weak commercial real estate market are all problem spots for the sector. As a result, analysts are projecting Fifth Third (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Suntrust Banks (STI) and Zions Bancorp (ZION) to post losses.

It’s All About Expectations
The one positive for the third-quarter earnings season is that there is a general expectation that the numbers will be bad. Therefore, even those companies that report losses will be measured up against the consensus estimates and not the year prior results. What we could well see is a repeat of second-quarter earnings season, where brokerage analyst forecasts proved to be too pessimistic.

As always, pay attention to guidance and the level of visibility companies have about the fourth quarter and the early part of 2010. The markets will want assurance that business conditions are starting to improve, even if sales still remain at depressed levels.

So, Fall of 2009 is soon upon us and many of us wake up in the morning wondering “were are we now; are we there yet?” Well, we’re there. Where there is, is the question.

The stock market is either up @50% or down @30% depending upon when the money went into your IRA or 401K.

Housing affordability is at its highest since the early 1970’s. Things don’t seem to be getting worse which is the beginning of recovery. The big challenge in residential housing today is getting through the backlog of foreclosures. The impact of so many people loosing their homes is that there is a huge supply of inventory coming on the market which is likely to hold prices down for sometime to come which makes it difficult to impossible for people to make a “move-up” purchase.

Homeowners who purchased their homes in 2004 and before that did not re-mortgage during the re-finance boom of the 2005-2008 time frame are as a rule OK and will probably make money when they sell their homes but there is still often time a sense of loss resulting from the much higher prices their neighbors probably got a short time ago.

First-time buyers are walking into what will probably be the deals of a life time if they buy a lender owned home in the next several months. The government stimulus seems to be doing its job in making housing more affordable and there remains tremendous pent-up equity in these homes that will probably full a new housing boom sometime in the future but we aren’t even close to know when or how that part of the American housing saga will unfold. We do know that housing stock remains flat and that people do need a place to live so over the course of the next few years once the excess inventory is off the market house prices will rise but for the foreseeable future people should and most probably will only be buying residential real estate for one of two reasons: they need a place they can afford to live or they have financial reserves and they want to invest and hold properties as rentals over a multi-year period.

Bremerhaven. Bremerhaven wieder zu einem Lehrgangsstandort machen: Das wünschen sich die Karateka des GTV. Die Abteilung des Mehrspartenvereins feierte Anfang September seinen 25. Geburtstag – standesgemäß mit viel Training, einem Tag der offenen Tür und einem deftigen Grillabend.

Im Mittelpunkt der Feier stand dabei der Lehrgang, den Andreas Modl (7. Dan AKS, 6. Dan Wado-Ryu), Dr. Elke von Oehsen (6. Dan Wadokai) und Abteilungsgründer und Dojoleiter Manfred Schramm (4. Dan) als Co-Trainer leiteten. Neben dem klassischen Kihon waren vor allem die biomechanischen Aspekte des Kata-Bunkai, des Kihon Kumite sowie Selbstverteidigung Schwerpunkte des Trainings, das nahtlos mit einer Demonstration des Könnens der Karateka fortgesetzt wurde.

Dazu entsandte der Magistrat der Stadt Bremerhaven eigens ihren Sportstadtrat Wilhelm Behrens – eine Anerkennung für die Arbeit, die das Dojo in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten geleistet hat.

Daran wollen die GTV-Karateka gern wieder anküpfen. „Wir würden uns freuen, wenn Bremerhaven wieder ein Lehrgangsstandort wird“, sagte Schramm in seiner Begrüßung. Das war vor allem in den 90er Jahren der Fall: Unter anderem holte der Jubilar Shuzo Imai regelmäßig an die Weser. Hinzu kamen zahlreiche weitere Seminare anderer Vereine, unter anderem mit Siegfried Wolf.

Well this mkt. has been a little, a lot on the fuhlat side hasn’t it? A couple things to note. Today was the first day in the last four trading days that the end of the day was stronger than the first half of the day. But strong is relative. The fact that 1/4 of the v is coming in 4 stocks gives me cause pause, and it also makes me feel more confident in my thought that this mkt. is very over bought right now. However, I am starting to hear more and more pundits saying that and that gives me cause to pause. When that happens, just like the head and shoulders of last month, then it often does not come to fruition. There is a lot of news on the hush hush, stuff that should be headlines, stuff that will move markets, stuff like this bloomberg bank article. If this ruling holds, and they have to reveal this information, I really think this will devastate this mkt. especially because no one is talking about it. I am really thinking about shorting XLF just based on this, we shall see. On to the charts:

The VIX secondary support line finally gave up the ghost. It has been holding strong, but today, late in the day we made a move down and closed below that trend. This could be bullish for the mkt. depending on where we go from here.

The DOW is still meeting resistance at the Oct. highs. It still looks very toppy, but could be building up steam for a push through. No matter what way it goes right now, I don’t see a lot of conviction in any moves right now.

The SPX looks like it might be trying to form that same brutal sideways action that we saw in June. That eventually led to a 75 point down move, but we have rallied hard off of that. If we had the same type of move, we would be looking at about the 950 area, which makes sense.

The NAS has moved back into that nice down pennant that it broke through late last year. It is now coming against that long down trend for the  fourth time. That is a pretty strong down trend, and it was destined to cause at least a stall, but I am not yet sure if it will predicate a fall. I think it will, but I will be watching the bottom of that formation to see if that will be the catalyst to push it above.

I thought the QQQQ may push through and bump against that same trend line, but it appears it stalled out on the early 08 lows. Now it may make a surprise shot back up, but I think that line will hold, maybe not perfectly, but the area will hold. Then we have that steep up trend to deal with.

The SPY didn’t quite make it back up to that long term down trend either. But I could see this gaining strength right here to make another run at it. Or perhaps it will find support at 100 and then bounce at it. If you look at the past, it tends to hang around this line quite a bit before dropping, and I expect this may be the same.

AMD, on the other hand, has rallied right into this long term resistance. This line goes all the way back to 2005, some of you probably weren’t even born then. Usually, the longer a trend line that stronger a trend line, and I don’t expect an exception here, even though on the daily candle it looks very strong right here. I think the trend will hold, maybe give up a little, but hold. I expect the 200 ma to offer some support.

MCO is in a decent down trending channel. You can see that the last two times we actually touched that top line a bearish engulfing candle ensued spurring our down move. So I would be looking for a white hanging man, or doji in the next day or two followed by a bearish engulfing. Let’s see if history repeats itself, like it often does in the mkts.

AKS is one we have been watching this week, and it is bottoming out here on this pennant. Had a decent hammer with a long tail, which could be the start of the up move. Now the issue is we are in the breakout area, this means we should be seeing a break soon.

Another one we have been watching for a down move this week. Now we are at a key point, we have moved down into the up trend line, with a nice reversal candle. Likely this trend will hold, but it is a short trend so it won’t take much to break it.

In closing: There is a lot of bad economic data out there, despite what you are hearing. Remember, just like charting, if you search the fields for green shoots, you will find green shoots. Step back, look at the whole field and you will see that the weeds are still choking out the grass and the gardener has left to go trade in his clunker, and get his left over money out of the bank. AKOT