Andrew Baker from Mid Major Review is the RTC correspondent for the Southern and Atlantic Sun Conferences.

Early Season Musings

The beginning of the season has been a normal one for the Southern Conference.  The SoCon isn’t doing too well out of conference against Division I opposition.  Ten of the conferences 15 wins have come against non D-I opponents.  This stat makes it real difficult to foresee any chance of the SoCon seeing a second bid.  Since it is so early in the season, we will go over the three teams that we spoke in depth about in our SoCon Preview.

The leaders with three victories are the College of Charleston Cougars.  Charleston finished 3rd in their own Charleston Classic last weekend with their lone defeat coming against a good Temple team.  Through two games they are being led by sophomore guard Andrew Goudelock at 17.5 PPG with senior forwards Dustin Scott and Jermaine Johnson contributing 10.5 PPG.  The Cougars played Charleston Southern and picked up a 10-point win over the Pirates 93-83 last night.  The Cougars have a game against MEAC  member South Carolina State on Monday before playing South Carolina in a week’s time.  It should be a dandy.

Even with the loss the other night to Oklahoma, the Davidson Wildcats and Stephen Curry are looking pretty good.  After ripping Guilford and James Madison, the Wildcats played competitively against the Sooners before succumbing 82-78 on Tuesday night.  Curry dropped 44 points against the Sooners, scoring well over half of his team’s output.  There is no doubt that Curry is the heart and soul, going 12-29 from the field and 14-14 from the free throw line against OU.  Only one other Wildcat managed to score in double digits.  The Wildcats did a wonderful job of taking care of the ball by only committing 5 turnovers in the game.  The Cats go from Oklahoma to the return game of last seasons Bracketbusters against Winthrop tonight.  In the next two weeks they will continue their quest to beat the big boys against North Carolina State and West Virginia.  Davidson should be able to stay competitive against any team if Curry continues to drop 37.5 PPG.

Appalachian State had an interesting opening week.  In their first game they dropped a high scoring affair to UNC-Wilmington 108-101.  Then Wednesday night they played an absolute barnburner against Charlotte.  The 49ers took ASU to double overtime at home in Boone before the Mountaineers finally topped UNCC 87-84 over 50 minutes of basketball.  It’s still early, but because of the two high scoring games they have been in, App State has six players averaging in double figures.  Donald Sims and Kellen Brand are leading them at this very early point in the season.  The real problem for the Mounts has been turnovers.  In the two games against UNC-Wilmington and Charlotte they had 27 and 22 turnovers, respectively.  It could be a real long season for App State if they can’t find someone to take care of the ball.  We will see if the Mounts are improving on Saturday when they visit Niagara.  A week from then they will host Campbell before beginning their two December conference games.

It’s still early for the Southern Conference, but if they ever expect to get that second bid into the NCAA Tournament they have to start scheduling more difficult opposition and then have to beat that opposition.  As was stated before, 66% of their current win total is against non-Division I opponents.  This is not a good way to impress anyone, especially the NCAA tourney committee when it comes time to perhaps award a second bid to Davidson, should they fall in the conference tournament.  It could be the snub that will be talked about for a long time.

Pelphrey’s Hogs Beat Northwestern State 90-59 Wednesday. They’ll be playing Appalachian St. Saturday in N.Little Rock. Pelphrey told the players they’re plans for a Christmas at home with their families depends on this win. Reggie might be headed to Texas A&M. Patrick Beverley is accused of being a baby’s daddy. Ben Cleveland is Happy with Petrino. McFadden is an International Star. Three former hogs have made the NFL Pro Bowl. All the Hogs are eligible for the Cotton Bowl and the kickers had a pressure packed practice. Finally a Twist on a Christmas Classic.

Predicted Order of Finish:

South

1. Davidson (23-5) (18-2)
2. Georgia Southern (17-12) (12-8)
3. College of Charleston (15-12) (11-9)
4. Wofford (15-14) (10-10)
5. Furman (10-18) (8-12)
6. Citadel (5-24) (3-17)

North

1. UNC-Greensboro (18-11) (13-7)
2. Appalachian St. (18-13) (12-8)
3. Western Carolina (15-15) (10-10)
4. Chattanooga (11-15) (9-11)
5. Elon (6-22) (4-16)

WYN2K. The Southern Conference has a reputation as a league on the rise, and deservedly so. After stellar regular seasons in 2006-07 from division winners Davidson and Appalachian St., including five wins over BCS schools among the league members (the highest total wins among the conferences we’ve rated thus far), the league has its sights on breaking into mid-major territory. If this is to ultimately happen, it will likely be led by Davidson, who with spectacular sophomore guard Stephen Curry, will challenge itself with several elite OOC games this season. Even though the league has been a one-bid conference throughout the 64/65 team era, last year Appalachian St. was very close to earning an at-large NCAA bid before ultimately settling for an NIT berth. And with the name cachet of Bobby Cremins bringing in exceptional recruits at College of Charleston, this league could be knocking on the door for two bids sooner rather than later.

Predicted Champion. Davidson (#9 seed NCAA) is the clear choice here. Davidson returns all five starters from the team that pushed extremely talented and athletic Maryland in the NCAA first round last year (down only four after the last tv timeout), including the aforementioned Curry, who had sick numbers for a freshman guard (22 ppg, 5 rpg, 3 apg, 2 spg, .408 3fg%, .855 ft%) including a run of 26.1 ppg the last ten games. But this is no one-man show. Aside from excellent point guard Jason Richards (#2 nationally in total assists), post men Thomas Sander and Boris Meno also both had outstanding seasons manning the inside, clearing boards and playing tough defense. Coach Bob McKillop also adds two significant recruits – Aaron Bond, who received some Burger Boy consideration last year; and his son, Brendan McKillop, who turned down ACC teams Virginia Tech and NC State to play for his pops. Knowing that Davidson needs a high RPI to offset any chance of being left at the altar should the Wildcats stumble in the conference tourney, McKillop has beefed up the OOC schedule considerably, setting up made-for-tv games with local bullies UNC and Duke in Charlotte and a trip to Raleigh to play NC State. Another road trip will include a game vs. UCLA at the Wooden Classic. All four of those teams are ranked in the Top 25.

Others Considered. We don’t expect another team to push Davidson like Appalachian St. did last season, but if Davidson gets lackadaisical or suffers a significant injury, we’d expect UNC-Greensboro to be next in line. Believe it or not, Curry didn’t win conference POY last year, and it’s not a sure thing that he will this year either. This is due to the fact that UNCG has a 6′6, 230 lb. Sir Charles clone named Kyle Hines returning in the post. Hines has scored in double figures in fifty straight games, and the last time a team went single coverage on him, he dropped 38 on their heads. Although #2 scorer Ricky Hickman is gone, UNCG returns a trio of talented sophomore wing scorers who all showed promise of bright futures. Appalachian St. is another team to watch despite losing three key seniors. The key is that two post men, Donte Minter (who should be healthy this year) and Jeremy Clayton, are returning, and in a league of little size, this could carry them a long way. One concern is the loss of heady PG DJ Thompson, who led the team’s uptempo attack, along with two other guards that saw significant time. Georgia Southern is another team on our radar, simply because they have an all-conference performer in the post (Louis Graham – #18 nationally in defReb%) and at the point guard position (Dwayne Foreman – #32 nationally in asstRate). And although College of Charleston lost three starters and a transfer from a 13-5 team, Bobby Cremins brought in the best recruiting class the league has seen in some time, and we should keep an eye on his team for that reason alone.

Games to Watch. The SoCon is going to a 20-game round robin conference schedule this season, which is the largest we’ve ever seen. Next year when the league expands to twelve teams with the addition of Samford, we suspect there will be a push by league coaches to return to a more reasonable sixteen game schedule. But for this year, it guarantees that Davidson will have to visit every road arena to test its mettle.

• Davidson @ Appalachian St. (11.26.07) & Appalachian St. @ Davidson (02.27.08)
• UNCG @ Appalachian St. (01.12.08) & Appalachian St. @ UNCG (02.16.08)
• Davidson @ UNCG (02.13.08) & UNCG @ Davidson (02.19.08)
• Southern Conference Championship Game (03.10.08) ESPN2

RPI Booster Games. We alluded to it above, but the SoCon went 5-38 (.118) against BCS teams last year (Appalachian St. – 2; Davidson – 1; Furman – 1; Wofford – 1). The number will be reduced this year, thanks to the additional conference games, but we expect a similar showing.

• UNCG @ Georgia Tech (11.09.07)
• Western Carolina @ Cincinnati (11.10.07)
• Davidson vs. UNC (Charlotte) (11.14.07) ESPN
• College of Charleston @ Arkansas (11.15.07) ESPNU
• Chattanooga @ S. Illinois (11.22.07) ESPNU
  
• Wichita St. @ Appalachian St. (11.28.07)
• Davidson vs. Duke (Charlotte) (12.01.07) ESPNU
• Tennessee @ Chattanooga (12.04.07) ESPNU
  
• Davidson @ UCLA (12.08.07)
• Georgia Southern @ Florida (12.15.07)
• Western Carolina @ Illinois (12.17.07)

Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. This one is interesting, because if Davidson performs well against the ACC trio + UCLA, has a great SoCon record (like 18-2), yet loses in the conference tourney, we believe that this will be a two-team league.

Neat-o Stat. The Citadel must be one of the most historically horrific basketball programs in the NCAA. It joined the Southern Conference in 1937, and has yet to see its first NCAA or NIT bid. Pat Conroy wrote of his losing season there in the 60s, and not much has changed since. His cousin, Ed Conroy, will begin his second season at the school with what he calls the youngest team in America – 15 freshmen (incl. redshirts), one sophomore, one junior and one senior. Good luck, Ed, you’re going to need it.

64/65-Team Era. The SoCon has been a one-bid league throughout this era, and it will probably remain so this year (unless Davidson lays an egg in the conference tourney). The conference record (3-23, .115) reflects the success of two Tennessee teams, one of which is no longer in the league. In 1992, #14 ETSU defeated #3 Arizona 87-80 in one of Lute Olson’s earlier tankjobs, and in 1997, #14 UT-Chattanooga went to the Sweet 16 by defeating #3 Georgia (the year prior to Tubby Smith winning the NCAA title at Kentucky) 73-70, and #6 Illinois 75-63. Since then the conference (as an average #13.6 seed) has lost ten straight first round games by an average of 13.0 pts – not too encouraging. Still, the last four years show improvement, as the league representative has only lost by an average of 9.8 pts. Below is a nice clip of Curry dropping three of his thirty against Maryland.

Final Thought. This league is all about Davidson this year. The MSM will remember the Wildcats’ performance against Maryland in the NCAA Tournament and pundits like Dickie V. will be touting Curry as a PTPer all season long. Even if Davidson merely pulls one upset against the four ranked teams it plays in the pre-conference schedule, that’ll be enough to entice everyone to claim it as their Cinderella come March. But there are other good teams in this conference, so Davidson shouldn’t be reading its press clippings too closely. Several other teams could surprise much as Davidson did last year, and the level of talent entering the league is rising. It should make for a very fun SoCon season this time around.