The last two days have brought us some revealing news on the state of the mobile web.

Probably the biggest and most complex offering was Morgan Stanley’s Mobile Internet Report (Complete) which was provided on Tuesday by Business Insider.

Among other gems hidden in this 400+ page document are these revealing figures on Facebook and Apple. 

Apparently Facebook has a world-wide audience of 430 Million unique who have made over 500 Million downloads from a choice of over 350,000 apps. In comparison Apple has sold 57 Million iPhone/iTouchs and the owners have made over 2 Billion Downloads from choice of over 100,000 apps. 

Meanwhile GigaOm has published a diagram showing By the Numbers: Facebook’s Road to an IPO while the Business Insider reports that Facebook Revenues [are] Screaming Toward $1 Billion.  [Updated 22 Dec 09] See also TechCrunch’s Most Recent Facebook Common Stock Sale Values Company At $11 Billion.

So let’s take a closer look at what all this excitement means. Do the quick maths and you’ll soon discover that $1 Billion in revenues from 430 Million uniques equals $0.19 in month ARPU for Facebook. So while everybody is getting excited about the Facebook IPO it would appear their APRU is going backwards. Why? Because last years figures (as proven in our recent post What’s on the MobCon Radar for the Social Networks?) suggested an ARPU of $0.25.

So the great hope of global social network marketing can’t even generate the equivalent of 1 SMS per month in revenues from its user base. Fascinating?!

So what about Apple? We again a quick calculation based on 20.7 Mil.Units delivering $13.2 Billion in revenues for the 4 quarters ending Sept 09 would suggest an annual ARPU of $637.68 (e.g. The Average Sales Price of the iPhone plus revenues from the Apps store). 

So Facebook is delivering an annual ARPU $2.28 vs Apple’s $637.68. Further proof, if any was needed, for the position I set out in Facefone, myPhone and LinkedTel. 

So what about Apples developers? How are they faring since our examination of the Apps Gold Rush in Watch out! iPhones have long tails too and So just how much money can you make developing iPhone Games?. 

Well a couple of stories of interest have emerged over the past two days about the success of developers of Bar Code scanners for  Mobile Phones. The first is GigaOm’s Eventbrite Launches Analytics; Barcode Reader and Directory on the Way 

Around the end of the month, Eventbrite expects to launch a live barcode scanner device through a partnership with Trakkers, giving organizers a very, very simple and small Linux-based system for scanning tickets. 

The thing that interests me about this company is

•  They have built a version of the mobile ticketing system I discussed in an earlier post A Telco you can Bank on?
• They have grown their business by applying the Find Me, Find You and Exchange retail media model. Driving ticket sales at first by Google SEO, then by hooking into Facebook Events, and lately via Twitter.

The other company of interest is Red Laser. I originally covered Red Laser and ShopSavvy in the posts on how the Smart Phone was revolutionising retailing. (See It’s the New Plastic and yes, it feels Fantastic and Point, Click and Discover the Future of Retailing.)

Shopsavvy is of course the free Android app that has been recently migrated to the iPhone. Red Laser is the paid app. This new article from Mobile Crunch Bar-code Scanning RedLaser iPhone App reaches 750K downloads, over $1M in revenue provides us with some interesting data on the economics of iPhone development.

RedLaser has been in the top 5 of the App Store paid apps for 3 months now, and again has got there without any advertising or marketing whatsoever. The interesting thing is the news that a top 5 paid app averages only $12,000 in revenues per day.

This of course makes us think once again we need to watch out because iPhones have long tails too.

Finally there is the news that Mobile Web Apps Look Hot – Can They Challenge the iTunes App Store? and iPhone Users, Get Ready for Flash Games.

Neither of these two stories provides long-term hope for the mobile games industry. As we have proven before you can make money developing iPhone games but the long tail of online game development means Analog Dollars equals Digital Pennies for Online Games Developers.

Continuing on with the theme of News junkie or the future of journalism? I now want to take a look at the Business of Blogging.

24/7 Wall St has recently published a list of The Twenty-Five Most Valuable Blogs In America.

7 of the Top 25 most valuable blogs are tech blogs.

TechBlogs, as we all know, are an extremely competitive part of the online content business so it will be interesting to see how all that “Free Market” energy translates into Advertising Revenues and, more importantly, a return on Shareholder Investment.

Note: Important qualification. The top 7 most valuable tech blogs do not correlate with the 7 most popular tech blogs.

 They estimate the annual advertising revenues and monthly traffic for each of these Top 7 Tech Blogs to be:

• 5. TechCrunch. $7.5 million. (4 million uniques / 18 Million Page Views)
• 9. Boing Boing. $4 million. (3 million uniques / 24 Million Page Views)
• 12. GigaOm. $2.8 million. (1.7 million uniques  / 12 Million Page Views)
• 15. ReadWriteWeb. $2.4 million. (1.2 million uniques  / 10 Million Page Views)
• 16. The Business Insider. $2 million (1.8 million uniques  / 14 Million Page Views)
• 18. Apple Insider. $1.3 million.(1.2 Million uniques  / 8 Million Page Views)
• 20. SearchEngineLand. $0.6 Million. (0.4 Million uniques  / 3.5 Million Page Views)

Interestingly these figures indicate that the market leader is the least sticky (4.5 Page views per unique) while the 7^th spot is the stickiest (8.75 pages per unique). You’ll notice is there is no correlation between revenues and traffic. I guess the question also has to be asked how many of these uniques end up visiting all 7 blogs each month?

The average revenue per unique per annum (ARPU) across the top 7 sites is just $1.55. It doesn’t get much better at the top of the market. ARPU across the top 3 is just $1.64. While top spot delivers an ARPU of just $1.875.

So that’s the revenue side. Now let’s take a look at what it cost to run a top 3 tech blog. 

24/7 Wall St  suggest you will need around 30+ staff to generate the volume of pages each day to keep the blog hot and the ads streaming. So let’s say for arguments sake you need 30 people and that fixed cost per staff member (including the equipment and associated operating costs) is $100,000 per annum. So that would be an estimated $3 Million per year in costs. This means 2 out of the top 3 may be making money.

Based on these estimates TechCrunch makes an operating profit of just $1.125 per unique per annum.

So let’s put this into perspective. There are an estimated 130 Million Blogs on the web of which about 8,500 are TechBlogs (at least based on Technorati’s listings) and of the top 3 tech blogs the ARPU is just $1.64 and the top operating profit is just $1.125 per unique per annum.

A couple of thoughts come to mind here. Not least of which is Chris Anderson’s Long Tail prediction for media: “The head of the curve will be free and the tail of the curve will be paid.”

Pardon the pun but I guess these figures make the business of profiting from blogging a Long Tale.

The other thought is this. Clearly blogging isn’t where they make their money.

So what do they do to make it work? Well SearchEngineLand, Gigaom and TechCrunch all have conference programs linked to the blog. For example, they estimate that SearchEngineLand’s conference revenues are 3-4 times that of the revenues generated by the site. So clearly the blog is just a Freemium hook to get new business in.

You may recall that in an earlier posting What If: Journalism is the real reason Newspapers are dying? I made reference to TechCrunch’s Michael Arrington and his mid-year post on What If: The New New York Times . In this post he redefines The New York Times online publish model in terms of the TechCrunch blog model.

Now let’s apply some MobCon theory to this whole Blogging Business and do a What If on the TechCrunch blog model.

What if: Instead of talking about iPhones TechCrunch went into business selling or even giving away iPhones to their 4 Million + readers? What would their revenue model look like then?

Well their ARPU would take a huge bounce. Up from $1.88 per annum to upwards of  $800 per annum. Their margins would also improve.

They would grow their annual revenues from$7.5 Million to $3.2 Billion. This would make TechCrunch’s revenues slightly higher than the New York Times. Why shrink to greatness after all?

In Australian terms this would make TechCrunch a bigger mobile telecoms provider than the newly merged 3 Mobile and Vodafone Joint Venture.

Now let’s apply the same logic to the New York Times. What if they also became a mobile publishing company? Issuing iPhones, or any other brand of smart phone, to their online audience and print subscribers? What would it do to their revenue model?

The New York Times, whose online business in 2007 had an ARPU of $3.80, has 10x the traffic of TechCrunch so they would quadruple their revenues and solve the original New York Times10% Problem.

Just for the record: Estimates put The New York Times offline ARPU in 2007 at about $330. Hence the 10% Problem where 10 times the readers online delivers 1/10 the revenues.

Achmad Rouzni Noor II – detikinet
Rabu, 11/11/2009 18:41 WIB

http://www.detikinet.com/read/2009/11/11/184125/1240005/328/internet-broadband-akan-semakin-murah

Jakarta – Seiring dengan meningkat pesatnya jumlah pelanggan mobile broadband, baik di lingkup global maupun di Indonesia, tarif berlangganan internet kecepatan tinggi akan semakin murah.

Menurut asosiasi GSM dunia (GSMA) lambat laun, tarif internet mobile broadband bisa turun separuhnya lebih. Hal itu dipicu dengan semakin tingginya penetrasi jaringan internet bergerak yang hingga semester I-2009 lalu, secara global diselenggarakan oleh 236 operator di 104 negara.

“Tingginya penetrasi mobile broadband merangsang turunnya modul HSPA (high speed packet access) hingga 50%. Dari US$ 70 menjadi sekitar US$ 35 dalam waktu 18 bulan,” kata Senior Director of Services GSMA, Jaikishan Rajaraman, dalam jumpa pers di Hotel Mulia, Senayan, Rabu (11/11/2009).

Dengan semakin turunnya harga perangkat jaringan dan semakin banyaknya jumlah pelanggan, GSMA memprediksi pada 2011 mendatang, tarif akan turun drastis. Hal ini bisa terlihat dari turunnya pendapatan operator dari tiap pelanggan atau ARPU (average revenue per user).

“ARPU rata-rata di industri juga akan menurun hingga 50% dari US$ 48 menjadi US$24. Dengan harga yang relatif lebih terjangkau, kemungkinan besar pada 2012, jumlah pelanggan mobile broadband dunia bisa terdongkrak menjadi satu miliar pengguna,” ujar Rajaraman.

Prediksi penurunan tarif, lanjut dia, juga semakin diperkuat dengan tren turunnya biaya infrastruktur (network infrastructure cost) hingga 3-5% tiap tahunnya.

Khusus untuk Indonesia, GSMA memperkirakan pengguna layanan data internet bakal menembus angka 45 juta pelanggan pada 2013 mendatang, seiring dengan penurunan tarif dan kecepatan data yang lebih memadai melalui implementasi teknologi lanjutan dari generasi ketiga seluler 3G.

Teknologi itu melalui High Speed Packet Access Plus (HSPA+) dan Long Term Evolution (LTE) yang dikenal dengan julukan 4G. Kedua teknologi ini menawarkan kecepatan best effort 21 Mbps untuk 3G HSPA+ dan 100 Mbps untuk 4G LTE.

“Meskipun saat digunakan banyak orang secara bersamaan tak akan sampai segitu, namun tetap saja, kecepatannya lebih baik dari teknologi 3G sebelumnya,” jelas dia.

Pengguna mobile broadband di Indonesia sendiri, saat ini diperkirakan GSMA hampir menyentuh dua juta pelanggan. Angka itu diperoleh dari operator seperti Telkomsel 1,3 juta, Indosat (IM2) 500 ribu, Excelcomindo Pratama (XL) 100 ribu, dan beberapa operator lainnya.

Rajaraman juga meyakinkan, dengan tumbuhnya penetrasi mobile broadband akan mampu merangsang pertumbuhan pendapatan bruto alias GDP (gross domestic product) di sebuah negara. “10% penetrasi broadband akan meningkatkan 1% pertumbuhan GDP.”

“Secara direct dari industri ICT, investasi jaringan broadband akan memberi kontribusi untuk GDP. Selain itu, terdapat multiplier effects, artinya semakin tinggi investasi broadband akan merangsang tumbuhnya kontribusi dari penyedia konten, perangkat, dan lain-lain untuk GDP,” pungkas dia.

( rou / ash )

Relatório da 3G Americas, associação setorial que representaa tecnologia GSM, revela que Argentina e Venezuela mantêm a liderança no uso de dados GSM na América Latina – 29% da receita média gerada pelas operadoras por usuário vem da transmissão de dados, como mensagens de texto. O Brasil aparece na 4º posição com 12%. O aumento do uso de dados elevou o ARPU médio por usuário em 8,4% comparativamente ao ano mesmo período do ano anterior.

Uso de dados por país na América Latina

1- Argentina – 29%
1- Venezuela – 29%
2- México – 17%
3- Ecuador – 16%
4- Brasil – 12%
5- Chile – 10%
5- Perú – 10%
6- Colombia – 7%

I read a little bit confusing article on Telecoms.com ‘Touchscreen handsets driving decline in UK spending’

The author described the touch screen devices as the main factor of declining ARPU in the UK market. I believe he is quite wrong in his analysis. The input method isn’t the right factor for declining revenue.
Touch screen have a been a high feature for a few years but given the attractiveness of the iPhone and its UX other manufacturers have introduced touch screens not only on their Windows Mobile, Symbian and Android devices but on feature phones. You can find among those devices: Samsung Tocco, LG Renoir, LG Cookie, etc.
For unaware consumer, these touch screen devices are as cool as the iPhone. But as they are working with a proprietary OS they cannot download cool applications that uses a lot of data and they don’t have the latest browser supporting Flash. So with a device with limited capabilities the consumer uses less data and services.
Touch screen is just becoming a standard feature available from low end to high end devices.
What would be interesting to know is the correlation between the ARPU and

• the size of screen,
• the open OS
• the Qwerty keyboard

One can assume that the bigger screen you get the more you consume data services, and with a real Qwerty keyboard one tends to do more emails.
And last and not least all the Open OS maybe not equal. Some may generate more data ARPU than others.
It would have been interesting to know but unfortunately only operators have the data and they like secrecy…

A couple of years ago I was having a beer with the iArchitect of one of Australia’s Telcos. It was around the time the of the iPhone launch here in Australia and the conversation meandered towards the topic of the Killer iPhone App.

For me the killer app was always going to be a hybrid of Facebook and location intelligence. A Facebook Friends Location Mapping tool if you like.  A simple app that would allow you to see which pub your mates were drinking at if you were working back late on a Friday night.

I felt sure that would be up there in the top 10 downloads and people would pay good money for it.

The iArchitect responded by keying something into his mobile phone. I felt sure I was about to see a demonstration of some ground breaking, super cool piece of technology from the apple store. Instead he just sent me a txt message.

What did it say?

“This is the Killer App for the Mobile Phone”

He was right of course. SMS is the Killer Mobile Phone App and it’s been around for almost 15 years. If anything, as any senior Telco executive will tell you, it has been too successful.

You see, if you’re Texting then you’re not using Voice. Voice delivers a higher Average Revenue per User (ARPU) than SMS. On the other hand mobile content delivers a higher ARPU than both Voice and SMS and that’s why the Telcos are banking on Smart Phones and the next generation of multimedia apps to break the strangle hold that SMS has on Mobile Data Revenues.

The problem is, thanks to Twitter, SMS is now infecting the internet. The Killer Mobile App is now becoming the Killer Internet App.

At a time when the Telcos are banking on bandwidth hungry Web TV being the future of the internet customers are flocking to use the micro blogging engine.

At a time when the industry is anticipating an explosion in bandwidth usage customers seem to be becoming more frugal in their communication habits. All thanks to SMS and Twitter.

So getting back to the original conversation. What about my idea? Did it stack up?  Well kind of… I’m sure you’ll find at least 1,000 different versions of a Facebook Friends Location Mapping app in the Apple store today. All of them free… After all it’s a great marketing tool if you want to sell more beer :)

I have been writing about the how a price war in the Indian Telecom industry would be a future in vain. I have also written about why Telcos should explore future in data and consumer centric services rather than price wars. The pay per second bloodbath was clearly inevitable. However, i cant think, why would Large Telcos in the country miss the trick. A price led strategy would never be sustainable, and yet the whole industry seems to have rushed into 1 paise per second formula. Am i missing something?

The explosion of subscribers in India has put a lot of pressure on the existing telecom infrastructure and the frequencies available. While there have been efforts like sharing of infrastructure between operators which has allowed to keep Capex under control, there are also minefields such as Mobile Number Portability which adds a lot of uncertainty relating to the subscriber adds and churn. 3G is seen as an answer to the lack of bandwidth, but the license fees demanded by the government is exorbitant and will require long periods of gestation. India has also attracted players like MTS, Telenor, Etisalat, DoCoMo adding a lot of uncertainty in the existing market conditions.

The principal source of operator revenue is voice and data. (Data services here also implies SMS and MMS services). Under the present bandwidth shortages, existing operators have only been able capitalize on the voice led growth. SMS is the only the significant other contributor to revenues in Indian telecom eco-system. The current contribution of data services to operator revenues range from 8 to 11%. This includes SMS and also includes the Tata Teleservices and Reliance CDMA connections, which are typically data heavy services. GSM’s data revenues would be much lesser than CDMA. India being a 80% GSM country, the ratio of data services to Telecom services thus lags the international numbers. World over the higher percentage of Data revenue balances the fall in ARPU.(The Data ARPUs are on the rise globally). In India, data services provide no such safety net.

A case in point is the US telecom market which is the world’s highest consumer of telecom based data solutions. Over the last 5 years, Data ARPU has increased 7X while the Voice ARPU has reduced by 30% in the same period. A $15 dollar ARPU loss in Voice has been compensated by a $12 increase in Data ARPU. One might argue that this be the case in US which is a 3G country. But the point made in Indian context though different in regulatory and eco-system aspects, draws from this example.

• While voice tariffs in India is the lowest, Data tariffs in India are amongst the highest in the world. Cost being an important determinant of penetration, higher data costs have acted as barriers to data spread.
• Application and Content Revenue sharing models sometimes make it difficult for higher levels of applications to be built because of cost/higher break even periods. Even if applications are made, the revenue sharing with Telcos in India, would make it difficult for the Apps provider to advertise or communicate the offering to consumers.
• There is little in terms of consumer services to High ARPU consumers. Telcos in India could perhaps learn from Indian banks a few lessons in differential treatment of HNIs.
• All this time, Telcos in India have done little to tie up with content providers such as Googles of the world. LBS, Maps, Navigation and Social Networking could have been a great apps. This is a “Blue ocean” where Telcos have not ventured yet at all.
• The CEOs of one of the biggest Telcos in India once dismissed the MVNOs as “loss making”. Perhaps it is time to re-think strategy in terms of branded and exclusive content. (Read Report)
• All this while, Nokia has been preparing its platforms to differentiate itself through services. Telcos were in a far better position to aggregate service bundles and yet they didnot. Did all of them miss the trick? Did they fall into the Operator Dumb Pipe syndrome trap!

 So, when it was sunny, all the Telcos in India did was to make good subscriber numbers in falling ARPUs. That was the low lying fruit. Nobody perhaps looked at the next levels, because they were rolling in money anyways. The bloodbath in terms of per second tariffs is now catching the Telcos. They still prefer to look at market shares rather than the EVAs and Bottom-lines.

Next story in making would be the inevitable shake out and age of acquisitions.

Please feel free to rate the post and put your comments (negative or positive as may be!)

Read the earlier posts here:

Indian Telecom Story (Part XIX): Tariff war and hyper competition

Indian Telecom Story (Part XVIII): Eroding profits for higher acquisitions

Indian Telecom Story (Part XV): Net Operating margins at risk!

Indian Telecom Story (Part XIV): Can pricing differentiate new Telco services?

Mobile tariffs in India are already amongst the lowest in the world and competitive pressures continue to push them lower still. Unless the telecom players resport to separate set of tactics, this tariff war would prove damaging to the industry in the long term.

The age of Hyper Competition is rapidly dawning in the Indian Telecom sector with the advent of per seond billing plans.Tata Docomo set the Domingo toppling with the per second tariff plan. BSNL, MTS, Sistema and Aircel followed suit and TRAI was only too happy to endorse the per second tariff rates (Read More). However it is Airtel’s giving into the paradigm that will now “mainstream” the per second billing trend. In this lower-rate regime, all new entrants into the telecom space will now find it harder to attract customers and end up with lower revenues per minute.

In an earlier post, I had discussed that the per second billing could shave off as much as 15-20% of the consumer monthly bill. Hence this is an attractive proposition for the consumers. However, the question that begs to be answered is whether price is a sustainable basis for competition. Is there a possibility of differentiation through services. Is there a possibility whereby services and high ARPU consumers could be bundled? These are answers left unanswered as the Telcos in India have only focused on Voice based growth rather than having a portfolio of data or services based revenues.

Voices from the industry:

• “Bharti Airtel with 100,000 cellsites is already one of the lowest producers of mobile airtime in the world at a cost of 42 or 43 paise/minute. By engaging in predatory pricing and targeting the subscribers of other telcos, Tata Docomo is trying to get big operators to bleed by selling below cost. This is bad for the country as a whole because it will create bankruptcy in the telecom sector,”
• “Trai needs to examine if this is a sustainable tariff proposal. Consumer interest in the long term is not always served by lower tariffs. Tariffs must be cost plus. Operators cannot sell below cost,”

The interesting bit in the second statement is the candid  admission that consumer interest in the long terms is not always served by lower tariffs!

The on-going tariff war among telecom companies and the sector regulator Trai’s suggestion to move to a ‘pay-per-second’ tariff structure for all operators took a heavy toll on the stock prices of telecom companies. Analysts expect the new tariff plans are sure to dent the revenues of the telecom majors by 10-15% annually although the companies themselves maintain it would take 45-60 days to come back to the current average revenue per user (ARPU) levels. In the backdrop of the current telecom tariff war, analysts are now taking a bearish view of the stocks. Foreign broking major Morgan Stanley recently noted that RCom’s tariff could ‘‘possibly stagnate industry revenue growth for the next 12 months.” With aggressive pricing becoming the industry norm, and at the same time competition increasing ‘‘investors could start de-rating the Indian telecom sector,” it noted. They feel losses for firms could be higher and duration of competition longer since there are about 10 operators, listed and unlisted, who could start tariff war if pushed by new entrants or existing competitors.

The race to higher subscriber numbers and market share at the cost of eroding margins and diminishing profitability is a trap that the Telcos seem to have engaged themselves into in vain. If the stock indices are to be believed, investors feel that ability of the Telcos to create value even in a market as lucrative as India has diminished. 

In part XIXb, we will cover the self fulfilling doomsday prophecies of Indian Telcos, how “others” in the industry would ride the “operator dumb pipes” and how the Telcos measue up against others in emerging markets world over.

A chronological listing of earlier blogs on the same topic:

Indian Telecom Story (Part XVIII): Eroding profits for higher acquisitions

Indian Telecom Story (Part XV): Net Operating margins at risk!

Indian Telecom Story (Part XIV): Can pricing differentiate new Telco services?

Το ARPU στρέφει την αγορά προς τα συμβόλαια | Away.gr, ελληνικό online media για την τεχνολογία, τα games και την επιχειρηματικότητα
Τις τελευταίες μέρες έχουν κάνει την εμφάνιση τους νέα προγράμματα συμβολαίου κινητής(Vodafone Unlimited, WIND XL) τα οποία προσφέρουν περισσότερες δωρεάν υπηρεσίες(ομιλία, μηνύματα, δεδομένα). Ωστόσο πίσω από την απότομη στροφή της αγοράς προς τα συμβόλαια κρύβεται μια περαιτέρω στρατηγική που σκοπό έχει όχι τόσο την αύξηση της συνδρομητικής βάσης αλλά κυρίως την αύξηση του μέσου μηνιαίου ποσού ανά συνδρομητή. Το γνωστό ARPU.[next]

Debt ratings agency, Fitch says that it expects the recent tariff war by new telecom entrants in India and the likely retaliation by incumbent operators, will have a significant impact on industry revenues and profitability.

The reduced tariffs will lower the ARPUs and operating margins for all industry players. In a recent report, Fitch stated that EBITDA margins of existing operators will fall on lower ARPUs in the near term. The exaggerated tariff reduction and competitive intensity will likely reduce ARPUs by 10%-15%, which is lower than expected.

The Indian telecom industry is witnessing price wars with the entry of the new telecom operators, which were allotted universal access service licenses (UASLs) in February 2008 by the Department of Telecommunication (DoT).

The new entrants (Aircel, Sistema Shyam Teleservices (SSTL) and Tata Docomo (GSM)) have launched aggressive tariff plans in an effort to garner subscriber market share. These new entrants have launched per second billing, either selectively or throughout their networks, while Tata CDMA has launched tariffs on a per call basis, irrespective of duration (Re 1 and Re 3 per call on local and STD, respectively). Following this trend, Reliance communication (Rcom) has reduced the tariff to 50 paise per minute for local, STD, roaming and SMS, for both off-net and on-net calls. BSNL has also launched per second billing plan in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.

Fitch expects other incumbent operators to eventually match the reduced tariff plans, considering the adoption of mobile number portability in the near future.

Nevertheless, Fitch expects the Stable Outlook of the sector to continue, given the net monthly subscriber additions. However, the impending 3G and BWA auctions remain an event risk.

Fitch expects subscriber growth to be at a CAGR of 25%-30% over the next three years up to FY12, as compared to a CAGR of 44% in the last three years (FY07- FY09). The incumbent operators with strong balance sheets and strong portfolio of high-end customers in metro areas are expected to maintain their credit profile. However, Fitch expects new entrants to face increasing difficulties in garnering any meaningful market share, with already low tariffs leading to lower ARPUs, a lack of adequate spectrum quality and restrictions on spectrum sharing.

The telecom industry has yet to see service launch of other UASL holders like Etisalat DB Telecom India, Datacom, Telenor – Unitech wireless, Loop Telecom and S-tel. Fitch believes that the reduced industry profitability will likely expedite industry consolidation in the medium to long term.

Source: Fitch Ratings

I have discussed many and most of the times, that Pricing cannot and shouldnot be a differentiator of Telecom services in India. Instead branded services should be sought to differentiate telecom airtime. For long Indian telecom operators have been happy to reduce costs to entice more customers. While reducing the operating expenses may be a manna for consumers, it does not spell right for the telecom operators. Erosion of margins may get eclipsed by the huge subscriber add ons, but in 2-3 year time, when growth flattens, the slim margins will squeeze the profits. An earlier blog post posses the challenge in terms of Telco net operating profits at risk.

Qouting from an earlier post: “Lowering the cost of ownership has been extremely successful ploy in terms of expansion of the Indian Telecom markets. The ARPU today is around the theoretical $5 break point. In mature markets an ARPU under $5, does serious harm to the bottom-line. In a growing market like India, the strain of a decreasing ARPU may not be significantly visible presently. However, with markets maturing, the focus will shift from growth to sustainability. The new classes of consumers are mostly rural and their ARPU would be well below $5 (probably $3-3.5). Managing bottom-lines at such low levels of Revenue per user and increasing costs of acquisition will prove to be a challenge.”

Subscriber adds are exploding and September 2009, should see India sail past the 500 million Telecom subscriber mark. Of the 9.31 million GSM subscribers added in August 2009, 3.4 million were added by Tata DoCoMo, the youngest Telecom operator.  Tata DoCoMo is celebrating and raising a toasst to its success. They owe this to a disruptive per second plan. Even SMSs have become Diet, i.e pay per character! It couldnot have gotten better than this for the users. Moving from minutes plan to a seconds plan would save approximately 20% of the operating costs for the users. (Read this here). Diet SMS would be another saving.

These figures are corroborated by a research report by HSBC. If all operators adopt it the sector’s revenue could fall by 10-15 percent. It TRAI enforces the Pay per second plan, the Telecom majors could feel the heat. Translated further, revenue drop could mean lower EPS which would imply adjustment of share prices as lower levels and reduction in M-Cap.

The idea here is not to be against price drops. Lower cost of ownership of services is of paramount importance for higher penetration. The idea is service differentiation. Sample this: A $360 ARPU user has no special services available to him compared to a $5 ARPU user. Both suffer from the same lack of bandwidth problems, the same apathy from Telco representatives in case of wrong billings, and both of them also pay at the same counters. For start, atleast the quality of service can be different for High ARPU users ( A leaf out of book from HNI Retail banking).

With MNP and 3G auctions looking in the horizon, there is a reason and an opportunity to differentiate.

From http://www.medianama.com/2009/08/223-indiagames-coo-samir-bangara-on-games-on-demand-off-deck-billing-mgs-and-more/ on Aug 25, 2009

By Nikhil Pahwa

Indian Mobile gaming company Indiagames, a subsidiary of BSE listed UTV Software, reported a turnover of Rs. 46.4 crores and a profit-after-tax of Rs. 22.4 lakhs for the year ending 31st March 2009. MediaNama spoke to Samir Bangara, COO, Indiagames on a number of issues: on whether the company is primarily an IP Creation business, or a syndication business, drivers of the growth in the mobile gaming business in India, billing (and margins) for games on-deck and off-deck, and on games for the low-ARPU market:

How was the last year for Indiagames?

We experienced good growth, mainly in the Indian market. It has become a bigger and bigger chunk of what we do. The International business, lately, has been about the iPhone and also expanding our market. We had few launches last year, so International wasn’t as strong as it has been in the past, but our biggest title Bioshock is going live in the US market over the next month or so.

Is a majority of your revenue coming in from Syndication business?

A big chunk of it does come from the aggregation business. The international business is an IP driven business – comprising of our own games and branded games. In case of the domestic business, we are working with everybody except Gameloft. The new additions (for syndication) are Disney, which is a 30-33 percent grandparent of Indiagames through UTV. We will work increasingly with Disney in the US and European market. For example, they will publish Bioshock for us in the US market.

Bioshock was the game of the year on the XBox in 2007, it’s a big IP. We’ve licensed it for the mobile. We’re doing development in 2D, 3D, Java, Brew…the works. It’s been one of our longest development cycles, and one of the most expensive products. The game development would have taken over 10-11 months, then with fine-tuning, and receiving approvals, it took around 14-15 months.

Do you see yourself more as an IP creation company, or a syndication company?

Different geographies have different objectives. We have a blend of the games on demand business also coming into play in India. So, in the Indian market, it is a syndication driven business, and in months when we have massive big hits of our own…for example, 20:20 Cricket was a massive hit, embedded on a few million Nokia devices. If you include revenues from those items also, syndication will look slightly smaller in percentage.

Cricket is a big genre and we are doing multiple products. Our Cricket game for England vs Australia which was featured on the UK App store as a new and upcoming featured app. Last year, in December, our T20 Cricket Championship was the number one game on the Telstra deck in Australia. And then we do games like Ghajini which reduce our Syndication percentage. We don’t start the year saying Syndication should be X percentage. It could be as little as 45-50% and as high as 75-80%, depending on the original IP we’re launching and its success. For the last year, the Indian revenues contributed significantly.

The business leaders for development and syndication internally are different. We have a studio that is International focused and a studio that is Indian focused. The studios create a product, delivers it to the India publishing team for distribution in India and IG Fun for international publishing.

Which games are you releasing?

On the International side, the upcoming releases are Bioshock, Pentago, Mercury Meltdown (from sister company Ignition). We’re also doing an interesting version of our old faithful Bruce Lee in Q1 next year. This is around four generations ahead of what we’ve had so far. On the Indian side, we have the entire UTV portfolio, like Aage Se Right, What’s Your Raashi. We’ve launched Kaminey, which doing quite well, and will be doing Wake Up Sid, basically the entire portfolio from UTV.

How do you book revenues from your IP?

We book them as and when we get the information on downloads. The Indian market has become better in terms of data sharing and download reports – it is still not optimum, but significantly better than the past. We have live data for our off-deck business.

How do you explain Rs. 46 crores in revenues and a PAT of just Rs. 22 lakhs?

There are business that are in triple digit crores and not profitable. Mobile makes money, but the Games on Demand business is clearly in investment mode, it is loss making. We were running a 250-300 man call center at peak last year. We’ve been working at pretty fragmented levels with large operators like BSNL. The model that Hungama has launched is a nice compliment to us. Some big things have happened with GoD: Airtel is now bundling the GoD offering with their other services. Those kinds of things obviously give a boost to GoD, but they also come with certain costs.

You’re probably distributing the largest number of games in India, and we’ve heard the mobile games business in India has grown in the last year. What changed?

A big thrust has been the fact that the nuts and bolts are different. There are cheaper and more GPRS handsets, and no GPRS subscription charges with a pay as you go data download model. Operators make as much money through data traffic as they do through downloads – at least the top operators. They’ve opened up the walled garden, and mobile Internet is really taking off. The leading operators have 30-33 percent data capable handset penetration; of those, 25 percent go to the operator decks. Of that a fairly healthy number have played a game – sometimes 12-15 percent, or in some cases 25 percent.

Of the capable and live, we have a high gamer penetration number, but of the total instance, that is below 1-1.5 percent. What we see going forward is that the data capable handsets will increase. Also with operator decks opening up and we’re not only dependent on on-deck business.

But the billing is still through the operator even in case of off-deck?

You can use other options, but there’s nothing else of scale as of today.

Do you have better margins off-deck than on-deck, since you’re only using telecom operator billing, and not marketing?

Some operators do offer deltas for off deck, but not all. It varies from operator to operator. Logically speaking, you should have better margins, because that’s traffic you’re originating. Some of the operators have been more reasonable about it, and shared a slightly higher margin. It’s still not in the range that allows people to make that business blossom. In other cases, we’ll just take what we can. We have a fair amount of organic traffic on mobile, and remember that not everything that Indiagames does is not around gaming. A significant chuck of our business – around 30 percent odd – has nothing to do with gaming. We do wallpapers, tones, music, RBT. Effectively as a company, we have people in charge of different product lines. When we do movies, we do game rights and imagery rights.

In case of Ghajini, Imagery rights were a big contributor to our revenues. There’s a lot of music, as well as rights across all platforms.

Are Minimum Guarantee businesses viable?

We don’t have the money to throw around in senseless deals: when the MG is ridiculous, In the game business, we’re a lot more risk savvy, and we know how we can leverage that. The ARPUs are better, and we can use marketing to sell a game. Ghajini was an excellent deal for us, and we’ve since done deals at a rational MGs, and turned down those that weren’t rational. In Ghajini, we made around 3 times the MG in recoupment. If we’d done a traditional deal, paying them a packaged MG and then scrounging for recovering our money, we walk away feeling screwed, no one wins because the producers dont get the visibility. In our  syndication deals the money that the partners are making is on the top-ups, not on the MG.

What’s the outlook for this year with operator ARPUs declining and new users having lower balance on pre-paid?

This year we see ARPUs being a bit challenged because because the bulk of the subscriber growth is really coming from the lower end segments. We’re finding a challenge to find people with even Rs. 10 balance in their handsets. In FY10, we’ll see that that challenge is far more serious.

What about subscription based models like Airtel’s GamesClub and Reliance’s pay-per-play model?

There will have to be other such offerings with different tactics to be able to mine this segment of the user game. We’ve to figure out a way that they can afford the game. Subscription is the obvious one. As far as language barriers are concerned, games are close to being language agnostic.What we create in India, we can make multilingual.

Singapore’s Starhub has reported that its second-quarter operating revenue was stable at S$532 million compared to S$531 million in Q2 2008. The Group’s EBITDA for the quarter rose 10% to S$161 million, and net profit after tax increased 21% to S$78 million.

Capital expenditure (capex) was S$24 million higher at S$70 million from a year ago.

Revenues for Fixed Network services and Mobile grew by 7% and 1% respectively. However, Pay TV and Broadband revenues contracted by 2% and 3% respectively. Mobile continues to be the major revenue contributor at 51%. Pay TV, Broadband, Fixed Network Services and Sales of Equipment contributed 19%, 11%, 15% and 4% respectively to the mix.

Mobile revenue grew 1% to S$272 million from S$269 million for the quarter. Post-paid mobile services revenue was 2% lower at S$208 million, accounting for 76% of the Mobile revenue mix. Pre-paid mobile services revenue rose 12% to S$64 million. Post-paid ARPU slipped S$8 to S$69, while pre-paid ARPU moved up S$3 to S$23. The lower post-paid ARPU was mainly attributable to decreases in voice IDD and outbound roaming usages.

“We are pleased with the results given the challenging business environment that we operate in. Our diversified revenue base has allowed us to mitigate the impact of softer demand due to the weakened economy in certain segments. Good cost containment has delivered excellent free cash flows with substantial headroom for sustaining our guidance on dividend payments,” said Mr Terry Clontz, CEO of StarHub. “However, as it is not clear whether we have yet seen the worst impact of the economic downturn on our business, we will remain diligent in looking for ways to control costs while pursuing
profitable growth.”

“Take Back the Beep” is an interesting campaign that has been started by cell phone users against the big cell phone carriers.  I have to admit I had never really paid much attention to the message that you get when you get somebody’s voice mail, it was just one of those things that you get used to and deal with.

Suppose you call my cell to leave me a message. First you hear my own voice: “Hi, it’s David Pogue. Leave a message, and I’ll get back to you”–and THEN you hear a 15-second canned carrier message.

* Sprint: “[Phone number] is not available right now. Please leave a detailed message after the tone. When you have finished recording, you may hang up, or press pound for more options.”

* Verizon: “At the tone, please record your message. When you have finished recording, you may hang up, or press 1 for more options. To leave a callback number, press 5. (Beep)”

* AT&T: “To page this person, press five now. At the tone, please record your message. When you are finished, you may hang up, or press one for more options.”

* T-Mobile: “Record your message after the tone. To send a numeric page, press five. When you are finished recording, hang up, or for delivery options, press pound.”

When you think about it, this is really a waste of time in today’s day and age.  I mean who needs somebody to tell them that they are supposed to leave a message after the beep?  Or to hang up after you’re done leaving that message?

The other issue in all of this is the money that cell phone carriers make doing this.  It is in a word, staggering!

These little 15-second waits add up–bigtime. If Verizon’s 70 million customers leave or check messages twice a weekday, Verizon rakes in about $620 million a year. That’s your money. And your time: three hours of your time a year, just sitting there listening to the same message over and over again every year.

Yeah, that was $620 million/year for one cell phone carrier just from people listening to these messages!  That right there is enough to tell me that it’s going to be very hard to get them to stop this practice, even if it is the right thing to do.  I mean are they just going to walk away from $620 million a year because some people ask them to?  I suppose if enough people get on board and speak up then anything is possible but, it’s certainly not going to be easy.  So, if you want to get involved and stop giving your hard earned money to these companies for nothing, here is where you can make your voice heard:

* Verizon: Post a complaint here: http://bit.ly/FJncH.

* AT&T: Send e-mail to: customerissues@attnews.us.

* Sprint: Post a complaint here: http://bit.ly/9CmrZ

* T-Mobile: Post a complaint here: http://bit.ly/2rKy0u.

Read the whole article about this rip-off here.

According to Chinese government data there were a staggering 695.2m cell phone users on the mainland at the end of June 09.  This represents a 52.5% penetration rate (+ 4% YTD).

Despite 2 years of talks between Apple and China mobile (SEHK: 0941 – the mainland’s largest mobile provider) the iPhone is yet to (legally!) enter the market.  The wait may soon be over.

China Unicom (SEHK: 0762 – China’s third largest mobile provider with 140m subs in June) has announced that it is getting closer to a deal with Apple.  Press reports suggest that sales may even commence as soon as this coming September and that Unicom has exclusivity for 3 years.

In an announcement to the stock exchange the company forecast annual sales of $732m from the iPhone (4.5% of 2008 annual sales), and says it expects to sell between 1 and 2 million units a year for CNY 3,000.

Opportunity to capture high-end users, increase ARPU
After years of under-performing against China Mobile and China Telecom (SEHK: 0728 – China’s second largest provider), this presents a clear opportunity for Unicom to capture significant major share in the high-end cell market.  The move will lead to increases in ARPU.

Why use Unicom?
I assume that teaming with a smaller provider gave Apple greater leverage in the negotiations.  One example is Unicom’s acceptance of Apple’s demand to pre-install its online software shop on the iPhone.  China Mobile would not acquiesce to this request

One issue to consider
The iPhone online store bills its clients’ credit cards.  This may present difficulties in China as not all users are likely to have a credit card.

Analysts recommendations – since June 28th
Buy: 1
Hold: 5
Sell: 2

Ông Alexey Blyumin, Tổng Giám đốc GTEL Mobile

“Beeline chấp nhận giảm 20% doanh thu bình quân trên mỗi thuê bao so với các nhà mạng khác vì lợi ích khách hàng”, ông Alexey Blyumin, Tổng Giám đốc GTEL Mobile nói.

Nỗi ám ảnh mang tên Big Zero

Ngày 20/7, Liên doanh GTel và VimpelCom tuyên bố ra mắt mạng di động thứ 7 với thương hiệu Beeline và tung ra gói cước Big Zero “sốc” nhất trên thị trường di động. Big Zero miễn phí gọi nội mạng từ phút thứ 2 của cuộc gọi với tối đa 20 phút. Với gói cước BigZero, Beline khiến cho các mạng di động khác tại Việt Nam không thể không “để mắt đến”. Báo BĐVN đã phỏng vấn ông Alexey Blyumin, Tổng Giám đốc GTEL Mobile về vấn đề này.

Cho dù gói cước BigZero được đánh giá là gói cước “sát thủ” đối với các mạng di động khác. Tuy nhiên, có ý kiến cho rằng nếu Beeline giữ chính sách cho gói BigZero như vậy tuy thu hút được thuê bao nhưng sẽ rất khó khăn trong bài toán thu hồi vốn đầu tư. Quan điểm của các ông ra sao?

Chúng tôi mong muốn đem lại ngày càng nhiều lợi ích cho khách hàng và mong muốn họ có thể giao tiếp một cách thoải mái nhất tại mọi thời điểm. Chúng tôi sẽ chấp nhận giảm doanh thu bình quân/thuê bao (ARPU) thấp hơn 20% so với các nhà mạng khác vì lợi ích khách hàng.

Trước đây, S-Fone cũng ra gói cước miễn phí đến 1 thuê bao nội mạng, sau đó họ đã phải điều chỉnh chính sách này. Vậy BigZero có điều chỉnh sau khi có một lượng khách hàng nhất định không?

Chúng tôi mới chính thức ra mắt vài ngày trước. Còn quá sớm để đề cập đến vấn đề này. Tại thị trường cạnh tranh như hiện nay, chúng tôi cần cập nhật và thay đổi chính sách tại từng thời điểm thích hợp.

Với băng tần cao 1800 MHz được cấp, có ý kiến cho rằng Beeline sẽ áp dụng chiến thuật phủ sóng ở vùng đô thị của Việt Nam để phát huy hiệu quả của băng tần. Ông có bình luận gì về vấn đề này không?

GTel Mobile sẽ tập trung vào chất lượng mạng. Với băng tần 1.800 Mhz, GTM cung cấp đường truyền thoại với chất lượng tốt tại một số khu vực chiến lược trong giai đoạn đầu. Tiếp theo, chúng tôi tiếp tục khai thác triệt để công nghệ mới nhất trên băng tần này nhằm cung cấp cho khách hàng dịch vụ mạng với chất lượng tốt.

VimpelCom mang thương hiệu Beeline vào Việt Nam, vậy vấn đề bản địa hóa một mạng di động quốc tế sẽ được thể hiện như thế nào để phù hợp với thị trường Việt Nam?

Thương hiệu Beeline đã được đánh giá là một trong những thương hiệu giá trị nhất trên toàn thế giới. Chúng tôi không thấy có vấn đề gì khi bản địa hóa thương hiệu này tại Việt Nam. Trên thực tế chúng tôi đã làm việc này rồi. Thêm vào đó, những giá trị cốt lõi của thương hiệu là thân thiện, tươi sáng, hiệu quả, đơn giản và tích cực là những giá trị rất gần gũi với người Việt Nam. Theo kết quả điều tra gần đây của Công ty nghiên cứu thị trường CBI, Beeline đã thu hút đáng kể sự quan tâm của người dân Việt Nam chỉ trong vòng 3 tuần đầu ra mắt. 55% người dân tại Hà Nội và TP.HCM đã nhận diện được thương hiệu Beeline.

Hiện có thông tin cho rằng Gtel Mobile sẽ hợp tác với VinaPhone để triển khai 3G dưới hình thức Nhà điều hành mạng ảo. Vậy thông tin này có chính xác hay không?

Chúng tôi đang trong quá trình thảo luận với VinaPhone về việc triển khai 3G. Hiện tại chúng tôi vẫn chưa đi đến thỏa thuận cuối cùng về vấn đề này.

Xin cảm ơn ông!

Thái Khang (Thực hiện)

An extension of an earlier post, which has discussed the problem of reducing operating margins for Telecom Operators in India in the of falling ARPUs and high operating expenditures; this post profiles the predicament for Airtel. If Airtel being such an established player in the market is facing a crunch in its operating margins, the performances of other marginal players and new comers could be under serious doubt!

Airtel registered a 17% YOY revenue increase. However, its quarterly sequential revenue growth seems to be tapping out at 1.19%. Thus the revenue growth is slowing down. Net profit is up 26% but that is mainly because of lower financial costs and spends. Operating profit margins are reduced from 30% in last year to 27% this year.

 The concern for Airtel is that the growth in number of subscribers is hitting a plateau. With more competitors, the subscriber figures growth may actually dip. The ARPU has decreased 20.6% YOY. With both these numbers going south, it would be difficult for Airtel to keep up its performance in the next few quarters.

 Applying the same analogy to other operators and the new comers, one would expect some congruence in the statuses. The overall market situation is same in all cases and thus the performances would not be very different for other operators. It is in this context one needs to evaluate the price discounting options that the new operators are resorting to. It may be a short cut to establishing a quick base but sustainability and profitability are very big questions. Couple that with the high initial spends of getting a toe hold in the market, the break even seems to be distant. Ask Virgin Mobile for validation.

Beating forecasts by analysts, telecom major Bharti Airtel posted a 22.2 percent increase in net profit for the first quarter of 2009-10 at Rs.2,647.95 crore (Rs.26.48 billion / $547 million).

The company’s total income during the period under review rose 22 percent to Rs.10,448.69 crore from Rs.8,567.8 crore in the same period a year ago, it said in a regulatory statement. The increase in profits was also because of a Rs.250 crore gain as pay-outs on its foreign currency loans fell due to rupee appreciation.

“This good performance validates our rural thrust and investments in the past three years,” said chairman and managing director of Bharti Airtel, Sunil Bharti Mittal.

Bharti passed the 100 million subscriber milestone in its previous quarter, recording a highest-ever quarterly net addition of 8.55 million customers. Bharti now claims an overall customer base of 105.2 million as of end-June, a 47 percent year-on-year increase in its subscriber base. It has 102.4 million mobile subscribers, giving it a mobile market share of 24 percent.

Bharti did sound a note of caution regarding India’s challenging market due to stiff competition from existing players and new entrants. This has led to a drop in key parameters such as ARPU and minutes of usage, the company said. Meanwhile, the company said it is still in talks with South Africa’s MTN over a deal that could eventually lead to a merger. Both companies revived talks in May to create a leading global mobile group with more than 200 million subscribers and combined revenue of US$20 billion. The two are in exclusive talks till 31 July.

Source: SI& MBB

Key Statistics:

• Revenue service providers collect from cellular services hit $624 billion in 2008 (up 13% from 2007), and is expected to top $877 billion by 2010, reports Infonetics Research. They also note that between 2009 and 2013, worldwide mobile broadband service revenue will more than double. LTE service revenue is forecast to grow fast, reaching $41.7 billion in 2013, with the majority coming from North America by 2012, due to Verizon’s then AT&T’s LTE deployments. By 2013, W-CDMA/HSPA service revenue will be almost 5 times that of CDMA 1xEV-DO, as the majority of worldwide mobile subscribers are on GSM networks (Infonetics – http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39545.php)
• In Europe, LTE and its successors will be the primary technology to support these trends, according to new research from Coda, which sees a 50% CAGR for LTE in the next four years. In 2013, Europe will lead in LTE uptake, with 15m subscribers, the report says, ahead of north America on 7m and Asia-Pacific on 13m. But by 2016, Asia-Pacific will overtake on the back of Chinese adoption.Between 2012 and 2017, European LTE uptake will be driven primarily by video – which will see CAGR of 93%, followed by music/audio (79%), internet access (78%) and peer-to-peer traffic (77%) (http://www.rethink-wireless.com/?article_id=1871)
• According to iSuppli, a market research firm, IPTV is on track to grow 56percent in 2009 to reach 33.3 million subscribers worldwide. This is up from21.3 million in 2008. By 2010, iSuppli estimates that IPTV will register 52million subscribers growing to more than 115 million by 2013. The vastmajority of IPTV subscribers remain outside the U.S., over half of which arein Europe. (http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS127140+08-Sep-2009+PRN20090908)
• ABI finds that Wi-Fi in smartphones will grow from a 45% attach rate in 2009 to a 90% attach rate in 2014. Business customers are the primary adopters of smartphones and with increased penetration of Wi-Fi smartphones (http://umatoday.blogspot.com/2009/08/abi-researchs-latest-fmc-report.html)

• ABI Research forecasts indicate that the European managed mobile services market will total nearly $9 billion in 2009. The Asia-Pacific region follows a distant second, with a market size of about $5.7 billion. Total managed services revenue for 2009 is forecast to reach $22.2 billion.
• Juniper Research has estimates that the data revenues of MVNOs would increase from $0.5 billion in 2006 to $25.2 billion in 2012 (http://www.telecomcircle.com/2009/04/the-future-of-data-only-mvnos/)
• According to a recent Infonetics report, the overall WiMAX market grew 12 percent in the second quarter to $255 million. Alvarion led the market in the second quarter, followed by Motorola, the report said. Even more stunning, however, was the forecast for the years ahead. The WiMAX gear space is expected to increase to $4.9 billion in 2013 (http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/infonetics-wimax-equipment-market-hit-4-9b-2013/2009-08-28?utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss&cmp-id=OTC-RSS-FW0#ixzz0PabZz7M8)
• Wi-Fi chipset vendors will ship 1 billion units by 2011. By the end of the following year, a cumulative 5 billion such chipsets will have shipped since ABI began tracking Wi-Fi chipsets in 2000 (http://www.wirelessweek.com/News-Projection-1Billion-Wi-Fi-Chipsets-2011-081809.aspx)
• ABI predicts shipments of WiFi-capable handsets will double from 2009 to 2011. The research firm said that 144 million WiFi-capable handsets will be shipped this year, and number that will jump to just over 300 million in 2011 (http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/abi-wifi-capable-handset-shipments-double-every-two-years/2009-08-26?utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss&cmp-id=OTC-RSS-FW0#ixzz0PPLJ6xJo)

1. Ovum Report: Mobile Broadband Users and Revenues Forecast Pack to 2014, Published May 2009

http://www.reportbuyer.com/telecoms/broadband/mobile_broadband_users_revenues_forecast_pack_2014.html

• Total mobile broadband users will grow by 1024% to more than 2 billion by the end of 2014; 181 million users in 2008
• Number of mobile broadband handset users will surge to 1.8 billion in 2014 from 158 million in 2008
• 258 million new users will access mobile broadband on laptops in the next 5 years
• Total mobile broadband revenues grow by CAGR of 33% from 2008 to 2014; revenue will reach $137 billion globally in 2014, representing a 450% increase from 2008
• Emerging markets experience rapid growth throughout the forecast period but the developed markets continue to lead in terms of overall contribution; 40% of total mobile broadband laptop users will come from Asia Pacific, with China and India driving growth
• Total mobile broadband revenues not only stem the decline in SMS revenue but grow operators’ overall revenues
• Handset access to mobile broadband services exceeds laptop access by far but laptop ARPU is six times greater than handset ARPU
• Laptops are no longer the preserve of the enterprise; consumer adoption is growing

2. RNCOS Report: Global Mobile TV Forecast to 2013, Published 6/1/2009

http://www.free-press-release.com/news/200906/1243831156.html

• Number of mobile TV subscribers stood at nearly 70 million at the end of 2008
• Estimated to reach 100 million by end of 2009
• Japan and South Korea continue to be major adopters, collectively accounting for half of total mobile TV subscribers in 2008
• Significant growth expected in Asia-Pacific countries such as India and China over forecast period
• Forecast of number of mobile TV subscribers to reach nearly 450 million by 2013, growing at CAGR of 46%

3. Gartner Research, Published 6/23/2009

http://www.marketreportchina.com/market/article/content/3382/200906/203945.html

• Mobile Service Revenues in India projected to grow at CAGR of 12.5% from 2009-2013 to exceed 30 billion
• India mobile subscriber base set to exceed 771 million connections by 2013, growing at CAGR of 14.3% from 452 million in 2009
• Mobile market penetration projected to increase from 38.7% in 2009 to 63.5% in 2013; growth attributed to
  • Operators increasing focus on rural market
  • Local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment
  • Lower handset prices
• Prepaid connections accounted for more than 93% of all mobile connections in 2008, and are expected to grow to more than 96% of the connection base by 2013, surpassing 741 million, up from 312 million in 2008
• Postpaid subscriber base will exceed 29 million by 2013, growing at 2.5% from 23 million in 2008
• Churn rate in India is 53.2% in 2009; ratio expected to increase to 59.6% in 2013
• Revenues from data services will significantly contribute to overall growth of mobile services, with a CAGR of 16.8% from 2009 to 2013
• Prepaid subscribers expected to adopt data services faster than post-paid segment; bulk of revenues will continue to come from voice services
• Increased growth in data services will lead to the percentage of revenues coming from voice to reduce from 89% in 2008 to 86% in 2013

4. Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC): Global Mobile Phone Subscriber Base Forecast, Published 3/12/2009

http://mic.iii.org.tw/english/press/en_5_press_room_1_1.asp?selyear5=2009&doc_sqno=6869

• Worldwide Mobile Phone Subscriber CAGR in 2008-2013 is expected to be 6.5%
• In 2013, worldwide mobile phone subscriber base is forecast to reach 5.28 billion
• Worldwide penetration rate jumping from 57.3% in 2008 to 74.3% in 2013
• Between 2006 and 2008, mobile phone subscriber markets in many developed markets approached saturation; emerging markets such as China, India, Indonesia, Latin America, and several African countries became the growth engine; worldwide mobile phone subscriber base enjoyed double-digit growth rates during this period
• Penetration rate expected to break 60% in 2009
• WCDMA/HSPA subscriber base share of total global mobile phone subscriber base will increase to 29.1% in 2013, up from 8.2% in 2008
• As mobile operators begin accelerating switchover from 2G to 3G, GSM/GPRS/EDGE subscriber share is forecast to slip to 56.6% in 2013, down from 78.5% in 2008
• Driven by large-scale rollout of 3G systems and services, WCDMA/HSPA subscriber base reached 315 million in 2008
• CDMA/EV-DO subscriber base arrived at 132.9 million in 2008
• CDMA’s share of total mobile phone subscribers will reach 11.4% in 2013

5. Informa Telecoms & Media’s Global Mobile Forecasts to 2013, Published 12/12/2008

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/annual-mobile-revenues-hit-usd1-trillion-2013-global-subs-top-5-billion

• Annual revenues from global mobile market will top USD 1.03 trillion by 2013
• Number of subscriptions worldwide will have risen to more than 5.3 million
• From end-2007 to end-2013, global mobile market will see huge growth, increasing in size by over half (56%)
• Took over 20 years to reach 3 billion subscriptions, but another 1.9 billion net additions are forecast in just 6 years, with the global total nudging past 5 billion in 2011
• Total annual revenues derived from mobile operators will grow by over a third (33.9%), jumping from USD 769 billion in 2007 to USD 1.03 trillion in 2013
• 75% of global net additions between 2007 and 2013 will come from markets in Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America
• Nearly half (47%) of 1.9 billion global net adds will come from just five markets – India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia
• Mature markets of North America and Western Europe will in total contribute just 8% of global net adds, reflecting the high level of saturation in these markets
• Globally, subscription penetration will approach 75% mark in 2013
• Some countries will push past the 150% barrier – Romania (152%), Russia (153%), Italy (168%), Ukraine (173%) and Greece (183%)
• Growth in subscriptions will outstrip growth in subscribers (number of unique users), pointing to greater multi-SIM ownership
• Global ratio of subscriptions to subscribers will increase from 1.29 in 2007 to 1.32 in 2013. In Western Europe, the ratio will reach 1.55 in 2013, and even higher (1.75) in Eastern Europe
• Voice revenues will continue to make up the lion’s share of total revenues, but will see slowing growth, and even a decline from 2010 onwards
• Annual data revenues will more than double from USD 148 billion in 2007 to USD 347 billion in 2013. As a result, the total proportion of revenues generated by data services will increase from less than a fifth (19.2%) in 2007 to over a third (33.7%) at the end of 2013
• 2G will remain the dominant technology by subscription until 2013, when its market share will fall from over two thirds (66.9%) in 2007 to less than one third (32.7%) in 2013
• 3.5G technologies accounted for just 1.2% of total subscriptions in 2007, but will represent nearly a quarter (22.9%) of the total subscription base by 2013, and will exceed the number of 3G subscriptions

6. Cisco: Mobile Data Traffic to grow 66-fold by 2013, Published 2/11/2009

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2009/021109-cisco-mobile-data-traffic.html?ap1=rcb

• Mobile Web traffic volume will double every year between now and 2013, when traffic will total roughly 2.2 million terabytes per month
• Cisco predicts the biggest driver for traffic increase will come from video traffic, which will account for roughly 64% of all mobile traffic in 2013
• In 2008, video traffic will average around 13,000T per month, or roughly 39% of all mobile traffic
• By 2013, video traffic will increase by more than 100 times and will average around 1.3 million TB per month
• Handsets and laptops with speeds of higher than current 3G speeds will account for 80% of all mobile traffic by 2013
• The advent of smartphones and laptops with 3G aircards will lead to an explosion of mobile data traffic over the next five years, as an iPhone typically generates 30 times the mobile data traffic of a basic-feature phone, with a laptop generates 450 times the mobile data traffic of a basic feature phone

7. comScore: Mobile Internet Becoming a Daily Activity for Many, Published 3/16/2009

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2009/3/Daily_Mobile_Internet_Usage_Grows

• The number of people using their mobile device to access news and information on the Internet more than doubled from January 2008 to January 2009
• Among the audience of 63.2 million people who accessed news and information on their mobile device in January 2009, 22.4 million (35%) did so daily, more than double the size of the audience last year
• In January, 22.3 million people accessed news and information via a downloaded application
• Maps are the most popular downloaded application with 8.2 million users, while search was overwhelmingly favored use for SMS-based news and information access, with 14.1 million users
• Overall, 32.4 million people used SMS to access news and information in January

8. Infonetics: Mobile Internet Transformation, Published 12/3/2008

http://www.infonetics.com/whitepapers/2008-Infonetics-White-Paper-Mobile-Internet-Transformation-120308.pdf

• We are seeing a 400% to 800% year-over-year increase in traffic. This growth is driven by 4 major trends:
  • Rapid growth in high speed mobile broadband services based on HSPA, EV-DO, and WiMAX
  • New devices have emerged to consume this bandwidth, including dongles on laptops and a new generation of smartphones – of which the iPhone is the first instantiation
  • A host of new Web 2.0 applications, many of which made the transition from the wired world (e.g. Google Maps, YouTube)
  • Positive market impact of operator flat rate all-you-can-eat data plans

9. ABI Research: Mobile Devices Annual Market Overview, Published 1/26/2009

http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1355-35+Million+Netbook+Shipments+Expected+in+2009:+An+Era+Begins

• Forecast of 35 million shipments of netbooks this year
• Figure expected to rise to 139 million in 2013

10. ABI Research: Cellular PC Card Market Data, Published 2/18/2009

http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1372-Cellular+Modem+Shipments+Exceeded+35+Million+in+2008

• More than 35 million cellular modems used to connect laptops and netbooks to the Internet shipped in 2008
• Majority were external USB modems
• Further 3.5 million were embedded modems
• Shipments of embedded modems expected to double in 2009

11. Research and Markets: Global & China Netbook Industry Report, Published March 2009

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/47cbc4/global_china_net

• There are four main forces that promote the development of the netbook;
  • Consumers reliance on the Internet
  • Technology advance; the launch of the Atom platform by Intel, plus the integration of various technologies such as mechanical technology and electronic technology, led to the birth of the netbook
  • Profit-seeking by mobile operators; the arrival of 3G and 3.5G has laid the solid foundation for applications
  • Low price; like mobile phones, telecom operators may subsidize netbook manufacturers to realize extra low-price or even a free netbook to stimulate the development of the netbook market
• In 2009 the shipment is expected to reach 35 million, which is double that of 2008

12. Electronics Industry Market Research and Knowledge Network: Shifting to Embedded: 2008 Worldwide Cellular Modem Market, Published December 2008

http://www.electronics.ca/reports/wireless/cellular_modem.html

• 2007 shipments of cellular modems reached 12.6 million
• 2008 shipments expected to reach 20 million by year end
• Embedded modem shipments expected to overtake external by 2011
• USB modems are preferred external modem form factor

13. ABI Research: Cellular Modems and Mobile Broadband Connectivity, Published 5/29/2008

http://www.intomobile.com/2008/05/29/abi-research-cellular-modem-industry-will-exceed-200-million-units-by-2013.html

http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1271-Market+Forces+to+Drive+Embedded+Cellular+Modem+Sales+Over+83+Million+Units+in+2013, 10/22/2008

• Shipments of cellular modems expected to exceed 200 million units
• Embedded cellular modem sales expected to top 83 million units in 2013
• GSMA will spend $1 billion on Mobile Broadband Service Mark initiative, designed to create awareness of laptops with embedded connectivity; other drivers include
  • Qualcomm’s Gobi chipset that enables modem connectivity on both GSM and CDMA networks
  • Lower mobile broadband pricing
  • Networks maintaining their current EV-DO Rev A and HSPA air interfaces for at least two more years
• Sales of embedded cellular modems will increase to nearly $9 billion in 2013
• Cellular modem sales will top $22 billion by 2013

14. Nielsen Mobile: Mobile Data Cards, Published 8/19/2008

http://www.nielsenmobile.com/html/press%20releases/MobileDataCards.html

• There were more than 13 million wireless data card users in the US as of Q2 2008
• Recent adoption has been strong, with more than half (55%) of those devices acquired in the past 12 months
• PCMCIA cards accounted for 54% of mobile data cards; USB – 30%, embedded modules – 17%.
• As of Q2 2008, consumers report spending an average of $65 on their data card, excluding service costs
• 43% of mobile data card users report they most often use their data card at home, while 15% say they typically use the card at work
• One in five (21%) data card subscribers take advantage of ubiquitous access by heading outdoors and 9% use their card while commuting
• Of the 1,300 users surveyed, more than 99% had additional means of Internet at home; 40% had cable broadband and 34% had DSL
• 59% of mobile data card users say they might swap their ISP for data card use exclusively, giving wireless carriers one more inroad into the living room

15. Juniper Research: Future Mobile Enterprise: Forecasts, Markets & Devices 2009-2014, Published 3/24/2009

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=176&pr=133

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=176&pr=138

• Enterprise mobile devices to rise by 56% between 2008 and 2014, boosted by increased usage of mobile broadband. Reasons include
  • Wider availability of wireless broadband networks
  • Proliferation of ‘smart’ converged devices
  • Broadening ranges of mobile connectivity solutions
• Revenues from mobile enterprise users will grow to $247 billion by 2014
• The proportion of business mobile devices connected to 3.5G/3.9G networks will rise from 13% in 2008 to almost 80% in 2014
• Throughout the period, handsets will dominate, accounting for upwards of 70% of devices in the latter part of the period
• By the end of 2009, portables will account for 60% of all PC sales
• Usage of wireless dongles is losing ground to devices with embedded wireless modems and will peak in 2010/2011
• Number of enterprise portable computers with embedded wireless connectivity will grow by more than 300% between 2008 and 2014
• By 2014, 722 million business mobile connections will be in use worldwide; this will represent an increase of almost 60% over the forecast period
• Annual portable computer shipment volumes will exceed 300 million by 2014, accounting for over three quarters of all computer shipments that year

16. Juniper Research: LTE Mobile Broadband Report, Published 3/31/2009

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=177&pr=134

• Revenues from LTE Mobile Broadband subscribers will exceed $70 billion globally by 2014
• LTE’s main markets will be the developed nations of North America, Western Europe, the Far East and China, which together will account for 90% of the market of 2014
• Mobile commerce and payments, the mobile web and the need to return to economic growth will all drive mobile broadband

17. Juniper Research: WiMAX Broadband Report , Published 5/20/2009

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=181&pr=140

• Revenues from WiMAX 802.16e broadband subscribers will exceed $15 billion  by 2014
• WiMAX will provide an improved experience for broadband customers who are receiving low speed DSL or cable modem services, or at the limit of DSL coverage
• North America, Far East & China and Western Europe together will account for 70% of market by 2014
• Africa, Middle East, South America, and Indian Sub Continent and Eastern Europe will together be worth $4 billion by 2014

18. MAGNA: Mobile Advertising Forecast, Published 5/5/2009

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/magna-mobile-advertising-forecast-may-2009

• The US market for mobile advertising will grow by 36%, rising from $169 million in 2008 to $229 million during 2009.
• A re-acceleration is expected in 2010 as the emerging mobile applications market organizes to support the sustained growth of ad-supported apps.
• The prevalence of mobile subscriptions (more than 270 million at the end of 2008 according to CTIA) and mobile users (224 million individuals according to Nielsen) has been the first catalyst
• The second catalyst has been the increased access to the mobile web; according to Comscore, 22 million individuals accessed the mobile web daily and 63 million monthly, up from 11 million and 37 million for each frequency during 2008
• 32% of AT&T Wireless’ contract subscribers possessed smart-phones at the end of Q1 2009
• The third catalyst is Apple iPhone and the company’s App Store

19. Pyramid Research: LTE’s Five-Year Global Forecast, Published May 2009

http://www.pyramidresearch.com/store/ins_gl_090513.htm?sc=TL_IGL1.1

• The number of Long Term Evolution (LTE) subscriptions will grow at a CAGR of 404% from 2010 to 2014 to reach 136 million by the end of 2014, a pace faster than any previous mobile standard including 3G
• “To date, 27 mobile operators worldwide have publicly committed to deploying LTE, with 12 of them expected to roll out commercial services in 2010 and the remainder during 2011 and 2012”
• While it took nearly six years for UMTS/HSPA to reach 100 million subscriptions, Pyramid predicts that LTE will take just over four years to reach the same milestone
• LTE will grow 30% faster in emerging markets than developed ones; subscriptions in emerging markets will account for 43% of the LTE total in 2014, up from 5% in 2010
• Fueled by vendor support of TDD-mode, growth in emerging markets will be driven largely by China with 36.1 million subscriptions in 2014.

20. Pyramid Research: Mobile Video Services: A Five-Year Global Market Forecast, Published 5/29/2009

http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=177359

• Mobile video services will generate some $16 billion in revenue worldwide in 2014 and represent 15% of all wireless data sales by that time in leading markets like the US
• Growth will be driven by a 37% increase in the total mobile subscriber base – to over 6.2 billion people – between now and 2014, coupled with the arrival of faster 3G and mobile broadband networks around the world
• At year-end 2008, 37% of mobile subscribers in North America and 29% in Western Europe will be connected to a 3G network. Over the next several years, several other regions will make inroads with 3G; in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, more than 50% of subscribers will be converted by 2014, up from about 5% at year-end 2008
• The Asia/Pacific region will represent 50% of all mobile subscribers by 2014, up from 44% today
• Global mobile video user base will surpass 534 million subscriptions by 2014, equivalent to 8.5% of all mobile subscriptions, up from the current 2.5% level. CAGR is slated to be 28% for the five-year period
• The US, Italy and Japan are identified as three of the leading markets for mobile video and TV today
• China and Chile are markets to watch for future growth, while mobile video is starting to grow in India
• A series of regulatory and technological barriers are still stifling growth

21. Juniper Research: Mobile Music Report, 5/26/2009

http://juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?pr=141

• Combined revenue from mobile music services and full-track downloads are expected to increase from $2.5 billion in 2009 to $5.5 billion in 2013, driven by an array of factors;
  • Greater variety of applications and content
  • All-inclusive data packages
  • Consumer friendly UIs
  • Increase in handset storage capacity
• Those music services launched using an ad-funded model face a potential shortfall in revenue following a global spending reduction in advertising budgets; under the worse case scenario, adspend could reach just 50% of pre-downturn estimates
• The Far East & China region will account for the largest share of mobile music revenues throughout the 2009-2013 forecast period, followed by Western Europe

22. TowerGroup: From Niche Play to Mainstream Delivery Channel: US Mobile Banking Forecast, 2008-03, Published 5/26/2009

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/towergroup-mobile-banking-hits-mainstream-2009

• Mobile banking usage will grow from 10 million active users in 2009 to over 53 million active users in 2013, representing an annual growth rate of 51.8%

23. Chetan Sharma Consulting Market Data, Published 5/11/2009

http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/story/u-s-mobile-data-revenues-cross-10-billion-milestone/2009-05-11

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/us-wireless-data-market-update-q1-2009

• US wireless data market grew 5% quarter-over-quarter in S1, a year-over-year increase of 32%
• US Mobile Data revenues for the first time crossed the $10 billion benchmark
• Overall data revenues for the remainder of 2009 will grow 24% compared to 2008 totals to $42 billion for the year
• At Q1 2009 end, 62% of US subscribers are now using some form of mobile data services
• Messaging volume jumped 27% in Q1, translating to quarter-over-quarter messaging revenue increasing of 7%; US subscribers now average 485 messages per month, a frequency of one message per sub every 1.5 hours
• Non-messaging services now account for 50 to 60% of US carrier data revenues, the first time non-messaging share exceeded the 60% mark
• Sprint led in data ARPU with $15, followed by Verizon at $14.16
• In terms of percentage contribution, Verizon led with 27.91%, followed by AT&T at 27.2%
• Venture financing in the mobile sector also suffered a rapid decline, falling 58% compared to Q1 2008
• The 3G penetration in the US went past 40% in Q1 2009
• US subscription penetration went past 90%

24. Chetan Sharma Consulting, Global Wireless Data Market Update, Published 9/29/2008

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/global-wireless-data-market-update-1h-2008

• India and China are adding over 9 million subscriptions every month
• India crossed the 300 million subscription mark in August while China whizzed past 600 million in September
• Global subscriptions penetration edged past 50%
• Overall global mobile revenues (including equipment) for the year are likely to reach the 1 trillion mark by end of 2008, with approximately $800 billion attributed to service revenues
• Data revenues now account for almost 20% of the global service revenues

25. Global Industry Analysts, Broadband Satellite Services: A Global Strategic Business Report, Published 6/26/2009

http://www.satellitetoday.com/broadband/headlines/31485.html

• Broadband satellite services market projected to exceed $6.4 billion by 2015 as several new high-speed networking applications using existing bandwidth continue to drive the requirement for higher rates
• The number of global subscribers and sites for broadband satellite services will surpass the 3 million mark by 2010
• Europe is expected to post the fastest compounded annual growth rate between 2006 and 2015
• ·Next-generation broadband satellite systems are expected to equip total capacity in gigabit-per-second systems; GIA projects it is likely systems in the future would feature capacities in the range of terabits

26. Pyramid Research: Mobile Broadband Services in Malaysia, Published 6/26/2009

http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=15774155

• Over the next 5 years, the Malaysia telecom market will grow at a CAGR of 9.2%
• In 2014, it will generate US$11.7 billion thanks in part to increased demand for mobile and fixed broadband services
• Mobile penetration reached 98% in 2008, which is more than double the regional penetration of 47%
• Mobile penetration rate to increase to 133% by 2014
• Mobile broadband subscriptions in 2014 will number 2.6 million
• Three quarters of mobile revenue is generated by voice services; broadband data services will account for an increasing portion of mobile revenues over the next five years; mobile data services will account for 45% of all mobile revenue by 2014, driven by increases in adoption of mobile broadband services and mobile data applications

27. Strategy Analytics: 48% of Americans Would Drop Mobile Data Service Completely; 1,1100 household decision makers surveyed, Published 6/24/2009

http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=PressReleaseViewer&a0=4751

• Faced with the need to reduce household expenditures, 48% of Americans would drop their mobile data plan completely
• Only 10% would drop their home broadband subscription
• 12% said they would drop their pay-tv service completely, while 41% said they would scale their service back to a lower tier
• 56% of respondents said they would make no changes to their home fixed voice service, compared to 51% for mobile voice
• These results suggest that while American consumers consider home broadband service to be a vital utility, they see mobile data service as simply a ‘nice to have’

28. Entropy Economics: Bandwidth Boom: Measuring U.S. Communications Capacity from 2000 to 2008, Published 6/24/2009

http://entropyeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/bandwidth-boom-measuring-us-comm-capacity-2000-08-062409.pdf

• By the end of 2008, U.S. consumer bandwidth totaled 717 petabits per second
• On a per capita basis, U.S. consumers now enjoy almost 2.4 megabits per second of communications power, compared to just over 28 kilobits per second in 2000
• The ability to capitalize on all of the Internet’s proliferating applications and services and serices is on average about 100 times greater than it was in 2000
• Between 2000 and 2008, residential broadband subscribers grew to 80 million from 5 million.
• DSL and cable modems now commonly deliver 5 to 10 megabits or more to the user, up from a maximum of around 1 megabit per second in 2000, with current upstream bandwidth growing to one megabit or more
• Close to 3 million fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) links in the U.S. now routinely offer basic service of 20 megabits per second, with options of 50 megabits and even 100 megabits now possible
• From a total of 7 petabits per second in 2000, residential bandwidth grew to 391 petabits by the end of 2008
• U.S. information and communications technology (ICT) investment in 2008 totaled $455 billion, or 43% of all non-structure U.S. capital investment
• Between 2000 and 2008, nominal U.S. ICT investment totaled more than $3.5 trillion
• Continued investment on this scale will be required to;
  • Deliver more bandwidth to even more consumers and enlarge geographic coverage areas
  • Drive new innovations in crucial sectors like education and health care
  • Accommodate rapid compound data traffic growth with ever-greater real-time latency and quality-of-service requirements
• Over the last 8-year period;
  • Total residential bandwidth grew 54x
  • Total wireless bandwidth grew 542x
  • Total consumer bandwidth grew 91x
  • Residential bandwidth per capita grew 50x
  • Wireless bandwidth per capita grew 499x
  • Total consumer bandwidth per capita grew 84x, for a compound annual growth rate of 74%

29. Point Topic – Broadband and IPTV Statistics Report, Published 6/16/2009

http://www.telecompaper.com/news/article.aspx?cid=676528

• Global broadband subscribers grew by 16.6 million lines in Q1 to a total of 429.9 million
• Last quarter showed growth slightly higher than the previous three month period, as twenty countries grew by 10% of more
• DSL continues to be the most popular broadband access technology with 64.6% of all lines
• Fibre grew by more than 3 million lines to reflect 12.4% of market share
• Wireless broadband added over 1 million lines to a total of 5.58 million
• Number of IPTV subscribers approached 24 million after 9.8% quarterly growth, with expansion mainly in Europe and North America
• Western Europe is largest in IPTV market, with 11.4 million users, up 9.75% from December
• Western Europe is also the largest broadband region, with 108.1 million lines at the end of March, up 2.63%
• Eastern Europe showed a 5.75% improve to reach over 23.5 million broadband users
• South and East Asia is the second-largest market with 99 million subscribers, up 3.87%
• Asia Pacific showed the slowest quarterly growth of 1.82%, to finish March with 64.4 million broadband users
• Country with the most broadband users is China, with 88 million lines, followed by the US with 84 million.

30. Berg Insight, Mobile Broadband in Europe and North America, Published 5/30/2009

http://www.berginsight.com/ReportPDF/ProductSheet/bi-mbb4-ps.pdf

• HSPA now accounts for 12% of all broadband subscriptions in Europe
• HSPA now accounts for 5% of all broadband subscriptions in North America
• Total global number of shipped mobile broadband devices in 2008 was 37.2 million units
• European device market grew by 222% in 2008, but is likely to cool off in 2009 as operators start reducing their inventories
• Growth is forecasted to continue with shipments reaching 66 million units in 2014, fueled by integration in notebook PCs and strong demand for mobility
• The North American device market will experience rapid growth to reach 45 million shipments in 2014
• The ASP in Europe was reduced from about 100 Euros in 2007 to 45 Euros in 2008
• The US device market is still focused on business users and the Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE have not managed to capture significant market share
• ASP has remained as high as $150 in the US
• The total number of mobile broadband subscribers in the EU grew by 74% to reach 14.6 million in 2008, while estimated operator revenues reached 3.4 billion Euros
• European mobile broadband market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% to reach 7.6 billion Euros in 2014
• Number of mobile broadband subscribers in North America was about 4 million at the end of 2008
• Estimated service revenues were about $2.9 billion and are expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.9%, to reach $6.3 billion in 2014

31. Senza Fili Consulting, Bringing Wireless Broadband to Vertical Markets, Published February 2009

http://www.slideshare.net/GoWireless/new-senza-fili-verticals

• Vertical applications in 3G, WiMAX and LTE will generate $43 billion in service revenues by 2014
• Vertical connections will be equivalent to 7% of retail wireless broadband connections
• The largest market will be Asia Pacific, with 29% of connections
• Vehicle telematics and connectivity to the mobile workforce will be the two main applications
• Vertical connections will equal 24% of WiMAX retail connections, 16% of LTE retail conections, and 8% of 3G retail connections

32. Research and Markets, India, Telecoms Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts, Published June 2009

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3c6542/india_telecoms

• Mobile market continues to expand at an annual rate of around 50% into 2008
• By early 2009, India had 350 million mobile subscribers; this has grown from around 10 million in 2002
• A number of factors are responsible for this growth, including;
  • Low tariffs
  • Low handset prices
  • A highly competitive market created by the government and the regulator
• GSM remains dominant technology, but CDMA maintains a solid 25% market share
• Number of broadband Internet subscribers is starting to become more significant, having increased more than 70% in 2008, yet broadband subscribers comprised only 0.5% of the population at the start of 2009
• By early 2009 there were only 6 million broadband subscribers out of a total of around 18 million Internet subscribers
• Paradoxically, the overall level of Internet usage seems to be growing strongly, perhaps boosted by the widespread use of Internet cafes and other points of public online access; there were an estimated 90 million Internet users throughout the country by January 2009, representing a penetration rate of almost 9%
• DSL, representing about 81% of the local broadband market, is steadily losing market share to other non-DSL broadband platforms
• MCIT’s target of 500 million mobile telephone subscribers (fixed and mobile) by 2010 looks likely to be exceeded by around 100 million

33. Parks Associates, Broadband Services: Global Outlook, Published 7/8/09

http://www.parksassociates.com/research/reports/tocs/2009/broadbandglobal.htm

• The number of households worldwide with broadband access will reach close to 650 million by 2013
• Service providers will have to continue investing in network technologies to accommodate multiple services such as video-on-demand and converging social-networking applications
• Number of broadband households worldwide grew by over 18% in 2008 to exceed 400 million
• Asia-Pacific is the largest market, accounting for over 160 million subscribers, and it will have over 49% of the global market share by 2013

34. Coda Research Consultancy, Laptops to Drive Mobile Broadband Uptake, Published 7/17/2009.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/europe/story/laptops-drive-mobile-broadband-uptake-data-growth-40x-2017/2009-07-17

http://www.codarc.co.uk/mbpress.htm

• By 2017 there will be 418 million users of netbooks and laptops, generating 1.8 exabytes of traffic per month – fourty fold increase over 2009
• Mobile broadband revenues of nearly US$50 billion will come from netbook/laptop users by 2017, with the Asia-Pacific region having 162 million users, Europe 94 million and North America 58 million
• LTE will have half of all mobile broadband via netbook/laptop users
• LTE users will hit 38 million in 2013 after a ramp up in LTE production in 2012, and will rise to 209 million by 2017, a 1100% increase over 2012
• Mobile broadband user growth will not correspond with operator revenue growth, particularly in less wealthy regions of the Asia-Pacific, thus significantly affecting mobile broadband ARPU
• Operator revenues from Asia-Pacific will grow at only 50% of the rate of users, contrasting with 63% for Europe
• LTE ARPU will be 17% higher than for mobile broadband in general
• LTE operator revenues will be greatest in Europe, where they will rise by a CAGR of 47% from 2012 to 2017, and will form 83% of all mobile broadband revenues in that region
• LTE revenues from North America will grow significantly more at a CAGR of 59% between 2012 and 2017, and LTE will form 72% of its mobile broadband revenues
• LTE revenues will form only 13% of all mobile broadband revenues in the Middle East and Africa
• LTE usage via portables will lead to more traffic per user than for mobile broadband in general; this will further increase pressure upon network capacity, and will hit 1.1 exabytes per month in 2017; Asia-Pacific alone will take up 45% of this, whilst Europe will take up a third, and North America 17%
• Video will dominate mobile broadband traffic to and from portables, and will account for over half (53%) of traffic by 2017
• Nearly half of video traffic (47%) and nearly two thirds of P2P traffic will be consumed in Asia-Pacific

35. Telegeography, Who Can Access 3G/4G in 2013? Published 7/17/2009

http://gigaom.com/2009/07/17/data-the-future-of-the-internet-looks-highly-mobile/

http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=29304&email=html

• By the end of 2013 the addressable market for next generation cellular services (3G/4G) will have grown to over 4.5 billion potential subscribers; that will represent 71% of all wireless subscribers
• Virtually all wireless subscribers in Western Europe will have potential access to 3G/4G services, but Asia-Pacific will have only reached 60% of wireless subscribers by the end of 2013, held back by the cost and difficulty of extending coverage to vast and widely dispersed rural populations
• Actual take-up rates for 3G/4G services in 2013 will range from 25% of potential subscribers in Africa to 62% of Western Europe, with the differences being driven by:
  • Timing of service launch
  • Degree of local competition
  • Attractiveness of services and applications
  • Service pricing
  • Local income levels
• 28% of all wireless subscribers will be connected to 3G/4G networks by the end of 2013

36. Wireless Intelligence, Global Mobile Broadband Connections to Pass 150 Million, Published 7/21/2009

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/07-21-2009/0005063853&EDATE=

• Global HSPA connections will pass the 150 million mark by the end of summer
• More than 300 networks across 127 countries, approaching 1500 HSPA enabled devices; HSPA has firmly established itself as the worlds dominant mobile broadband technology and the fastest adopted mobile technology of all time
• AsiaPac accounts for almost 50 million live HSPA connections today and will have over 56 million by this September
• EMEA HSPA connections will pass the 50 million mark any day and will have reached almost 60 million by the end of September
• the US currently has almost 32 million HSPA connections with the number expected to rise to nearly 37 million by this September
• The Americas will ahve just over four million connections by the end of September
• 200 million connections expected by Q1 2010
• The success of HSPA mobile broadband is attracting a lot of attention from outside the ‘traditional’ mobile industry:
  • Consumer electronics, automotive, energy and utility industries are beginning to understand the possibilities of embedding mobile broadband into their products
  • Governments around the world are making the right spectrum available to support mobile broadband services today and into the future, ensuring their economics benefit from the GDP growth associated with the technology
  • Businesses and end users are embracing the freedom and productivity benefits offered by mobile broadband, driving flexible working practices and enabling impulsive mobile consumers to access the mobile internet on the move

37. Forrester Research, Mobile Internet Usage, Published 7/23/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=447536&mail=55

• According to a survey of 20,000 Europeans in France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK:
  • 13% of Western Europeans now access the Internet on their mobile device
  • 50% know they can use their mobile phone to access the Internet
• Growth in mobile broadband usage has led Nokia Siemens Networks to predict that data traffic will overtake voice traffic by 2011
• Mobile broadband is on the brink of large scale growth; there are similarities between the 13% using mobile Internet now and the 17% who were on fixed-line Internet access in 1999, before growth on that medium exploded
• NSN expects traffic to double from 400 million GB in 2009 to 2 billion GB a year by 2011, compared to 1.2 billion GB for voice
• 125 out of the 267 HSPA networks are in Europe
• Operators have moved to a more open Internet model, highlighted by Vodafone’s Betavine open API initiative and O2’s Litmus application store
• Over the last 18 months Europe’s mobile operators have deployed a number of other strategies to encourage mobile broadband usage, ranging from iPhone promotions to selling mobile-enabled ASUS laptops
• 6% receive email once a month or more, while 19% listened to music at least once a month
• 39% take pictures, 15% send MMS messages, and 65% send text messages at least once a month
• 44% of Europeans are only interested in using their mobile devices to make calls and send SMS messages

38. AMI-Partners, SMB’s IT Needs and Interests, Published 8/7/2009

http://www.ami-partners.com/index.php?target=news

Eleven-country study highlighted significant changes in SMB’s IT needs and interests; study’s focus was to analyze how the economy is impacting SMB’s perceptions, usage and purchasing behaviors related to IT. Among key changes identified:

• Drastic increase of SMB’s worldwide now showing very strong interest in managed services and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)
• Dramatic increase in SMB’s plans to oursource specific IT needs such as storage, security and telecommunications
• Most SMBs feel the economy is starting to stabilize, however businesses are still seeking ways to significantly reduce costs and increase revenues; this includes exploring IT products and services that can directly and immediately help ease exaggerated pain points like restricted cash flows and limited access to credit
• Over the last 12 months the influence of the business decision makers (or owners or presidents) has increased drastically; for example in a Q4 2008 study approximately 31% of SMBs stated their BDMs were involved in ‘brand selection’ while making an It purchase; this most recent study found the same number jumped to 83$

39. Juniper Research, Low-cost handsets, Published 8/11/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448022&mail=68

• Low-cost mobile phones will account for more than half of all new devices by 2014, according to a new report published by Juniper Research
• In five years mid-range market will be squeezed as low-cost handsets and smartphones together will make up 79% of all handsets shipped
• Low-cost handset shipments will number more than 700 million in 2014, up by 31% from levels in 2008, albeit down slightly from the peak of 716 million in 2012 as some users begin to upgrade to costlier devices
• Operators and vendors are preparing for an influx of new users from low-income socio-economic groups in developing markets, as well as increasing demand for high-end devices from users in developed markets
• Smartphone shipment volumes will grow continuously across the forecast period, reaching almost 360 million by the end of the period. It is expected than mid-range device sales volume will fall by more than 41% over the period
• Companies like Nokia, Apple and RIM, which target their portfolios towards either the the high-end or the low-end (or both like in Nokia’s case) stand to benefit from the trends forecast in the report
• Players operating in the mid-range market like Sony Ericsson and Motorola will have to rethink their strategy
• Indian subcontinent accounted for 23% of all low-cost handset sales in 2008, and that by 2014 it will account for 22%
• Juniper expects sales of cheap mobile phones in emerging markets to be further boosted by the rollout of low-cost localized services such as Nokia’s Life Tools

40. Mobile Future, Welcome to the Mobile Future, Published 8/11/2009

http://www.mobilefuture.org/page/invite/dwhitepaper/?source=huffpo

• Wireless industry in U.S. employs nearly 2.7 million Americans from application developers to retail store workers to network engineers
• Wireless industry contributes an estimated $100 billion annually to the U.S. GDP
• More than $325 billion of capital investment in domestic wireless infrastructure over last 25 years
• 2.2 trillion minutes spent by Americans talking on their mobile phones in 2008
• Since 2001, average wireless plan remains about $50, even though we spend 2.2 trillion minutes on phone in 2008 compared to 500 billion in 2001
• 95% of U.S. population has three or more wireless service choices, 60% of the population has at least five options
• 630 mobile devices available to U.S. consumers, compared with 147 available to UK consumers
• 1 trillion text messages sent in the U.S. in 2008
• Revenue per minute has declined nearly 90% since 1994
• Americans use twice as many minutes per month (829) as the second most talkative country (Hong Kong)
• 91% of wireless Americans keep their mobile device within arm’s reach 24 hours a day
• African-Americans are the most active users of the wireless Internet – and the fastest-growing mobile web population
• Estimated 500 million smartphones in use by 2012 globally
• Took 9 months for 1 billionth app to be downloaded from the day Apple app store opened
• Revenue from mobile applications expected to exceed $25 billion by 2014
• Six app stores offer nearly 100,000 mobile applications, many available for free
• 64% of 18 to 35 year olds relied on digital communications in the 2008 elections, saying it was the easiset way to access and share information

41. Research and Markets, Global – Key Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Statistics, Published 8/13/2009

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2009/08/13/4321730.htm

• While DSL continues to be the most popular access technology around the world, this dominance is slowly to be eroded by FttH in the years to come; as FttH penetration continues, customers can look forward to even faster services and the emergence of environmentally sustainable smart cities, offering advanced e-health, e-education, and e-government services
• Penetration of mobile phones has reached around 60% worldwide by mid-2009 (including multiple mobile subscriptions)
• Over 3 trillion text messages will be sent during 2009
• In 2009 Finland continued to offer the cheapest mobile call charges in Western Europe
• Consumers in the US use their mobile phones for longer per use than in other parts of the world, averaging over 800 minutes each month
• Mobile termination rates and roaming charges remain an important source of revenue for operators; however, pressure continues to mount on operators to lower their charges even further, despite some European operators already reporting a drop in overall revenue as a direct result of declining rates
• Revenue from mobile data, including SMS, now contributes as much as 25% to overall global mobile revenue
• Many users are switching to cheaper prepaid phones which do not generate as much ARPU as postpaid. Prepaid plans are being touted as a way to save money in the economic downturn

42. Frost and Sullivan, Asia-Pacific Fixed Broadband Market, Published 8/13/2009

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-13-2009/0005077076&EDATE=

• Asia-Pacific broadband subscribers are expected to grow 17.3% to reach 182 million users by the end of 2009, clocking estimated billings of US$44.9 billion, a rise of 13.3% over 2008
• Even as mobile broadband grows in tandem, fixed broadband uptake continues, due to various government initiatives such as Malaysia’s high-speed broadband (HSBB) project, Australia’s national broadband network (NBN), and Singapore’s iN2015 masterplan
• Telcos in developing markets continue to deploy basic xDSL infrastructure
• By next year broadband users in Asia-Pac are expected to breach 200-million-mark closing the year 2010 at 212.6 million
• Broadband user base in Asia-Pac region will grow at a CAGR of 14.1 annually from 2009-2014 to reach 342.9 million subscribers by end-2014.
• In 2014 the region’s household broadband penetration would have risen to 37.2%, up from only 18% last year, with revenues estimated at close to US$69 billion
• Consumer appetite for broadband will be spurred by the demand for high throughput value-added services such as IPTV and video-on-demand
• Services such as Web 2.0, social networking, file-sharing, online gaming, as well as falling PC prices and availability of low-cost netbooks have also added towards broadband consumption
• In 2008, top six Asia-Pac countries with the highest household broadband penetration rates were:
  • South Korea – 92.8%
  • Hong Kong – 85%
  • Singapore – 78.5%
  • Taiwan – 66%
  • Australia – 63.7%
  • Japan – 62.7%
• Remaining eight markets have household broadband penetration rates of less than 60%
• By number of subscribers, in 2008 China had the most fixed broadband users with 83.4 million (53.8% of the region’s total subscriber base), followed by Japan with 30 million and South Korea with 15.5 million
• In age of convergence and multi-play devices, both wireless and wireless broadband will be viewed as complementing technologies to offer subscribers with blender services; therefore there is no threat of mobile broadband to fixed broadband services

43. Pyramid Research, Mobile Data to Surpass Fixed Voice, Published 8/24/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39258.php?source=rss

• The U.S. communications market will reach $406 billion in 2014 as mobile data revenue climbs to $94 billion, surpassing fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) during the forecast period
• The U.S. communications market, including traditional pay-TV, generated $359 billion in service revenue in 2008 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5 percent from year-end 2009 to year-end 2014, reaching $406 billion in 2014
• Mobile data is already larger than fixed broadband and it will surpass fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) in 2011, climbing from $36 billion in 2008 to $94 billion in 2014
• Additional growth will be driven mostly by IP networks because IPTV will grow from $2 billion in 2008 to $15 billion in 2014
• VoIP will grow from $8 billion in 2008 to $22 billion in 2014 and fixed broadband will grow from $33 billion in 2008 to about $46 billion in 2014
• The decline of the PSTN voice revenue will result from the substitution of voice platforms both as fixed operators migrate customers to all-IP voice platforms and as consumers opt for mobile voice platforms, which also will eventually turn to IP
• Revenue related to mobile broadband access for laptops and Internet access for handsets will grow rapidly at CAGRs of 28 percent and 18 percent, respectively, from 2009 to 2014

44. Berg Insight, Femtocell Shipments Worldwide, Published 8/24/2009

http://www.wirelessdesignasia.com/article-11399-berginsightforecasts70millionusersoffemtocellsworldwideby2014-Asia.html

• Femtocell shipments will grow from 0.2 million units in 2009 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 127 percent to 12 million units worldwide in 2014
• European, North American and advanced markets in Asia Pacific will account for the vast majority of femtocell shipments
• By 2014, there will be almost six femtocells per macro base station and the number of users that connect to a femtocell on a regular basis is estimated to surpass 70 million

45. Infonetics Research, Mobile Broadband Cards, Routers, Services and Subscribers, Published 3/17/2009

http://www.infonetics.com/pr/2009/4q08-mobile-broadband-cards-routers-market-research-highlights.asp

• Worldwide, the number of mobile broadband subscribers (including W-CDMA/HSPA and CDMA2000/EV-DO) jumped 125% in 2008 over 2007, hitting 210.5 million, and are expected to top 1 billion by 2013
• Sales of mobile broadband PC cards and embedded mobile broadband cards topped $4.1 billion worldwide in 2008, and are expected to continue gathering momentum in 2009
• Worldwide mobile broadband router manufacturer revenue grew 114% in 2008 over 2007, although sales slowed in the second half of the year
• Huawei and Sony Ericsson tie for lead market share in mobile broadband cards by revenue in 2008, with Sony Ericsson’s strength based on W-CDMA/HSPA cards and dongles, and Huawei’s based on both HSPA and EV-DO and a broader mix of PC card and embedded card formats
• Several other major players, including Sierra, Novatel, and Option, also achieved market share in the mobile broadband cards segment
• Service provider revenue from mobile broadband services grew 45% in 2008 to hit $49.8 billion worldwide, and, though the global recession is hampering growth, mobile broadband service revenue is expected to grow in healthy double-digit percents over the next 5 years

46. In-Stat, Mobile Processor Review: The Battle for the Next Generation Consumer Devices,
Published 8/31/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS50954+31-Aug-2009+BW20090831

The mobile market is the highest growth end segment for the semiconductor
industry. Many consumer electronics devices still use MCUs and ASICs. However,
devices such as smartphones, MIDs, and mini-notes require higher level
functionality, programmability, and connectivity. As a result, these mobile
consumer devices are increasingly shifting toward merchant market processors,
reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). 

Merchant market processors offer higher levels of integration and performance
while reducing the device Original Equipment Manufacturer`s (OEMs) cost and time
to market. This is evident as the mobile market for merchant processing
solutions is expected to grow at a 22.3% CAGR through 2013 with the highest
total unit growth resulting from handheld applications like smartphones and
MIDs. By 2013, the market is projected to grow to about 775 million units. 

"Integration will be a key trend for future devices with multiple cores,
graphics/multimedia acceleration, and I/O all continuing to be integrated into
the processor," says Jim McGregor, In-Stat analyst. "Likewise, baseband
functionality will also be integrated into mobile processors for all
applications except PCs, which are less reliant on the connectivity and smaller
device footprint." 

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

* Among smartphones, 87% will feature mobile processors with integrated baseband
functionality by 2013.
* The estimated value of the processing, graphics/multimedia, and baseband
functions will all increase at double-digit growth rates over the next few
years.
* The battle for the fast-growing mobile semiconductor market will intensify in
late 2009 with the introduction of new processors from each camp-ARM and x86.

The research,"Mobile Processor Review: The Battle for the Next Generation
Consumer Devices"(#IN0904447SI),covers the worldwide market for mobile merchant
market processors, including CPUs, applications processors, and baseband
processors. It includes:

* Forecasts of TAM mobile processors by application, and market value TAM of
silicon functions in mobile devices, through 2013.
* Processor and vendor profiles of: Anyka, AMD, Broadcom, Chipnuts, Freescale,
Intel, Jade Chip, Marvell, MtekVision, NVIDIA, Pollux, Qualcomm, Renesas,
Samsung, Texas Instruments, VIA Technologies, and Vimicro.
* Examination of the competing architectures and integration trends for multiple
cores, graphics, I/O, and baseband functionality.

47. Forrester Research, Mobile Internet Adoption in Western Europe, Published 8/31/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/internetNews/idUSTRE57U1IQ20090831

• More than a third of consumers in Western Europe will access the Internet using their mobile phones by 2014
• Mobile Internet adoption is set to grow to 39% in Western Europe in 2014 from 13% in 2008
• Overall the number of individual mobile users in Western Europe is set to grow to 344 million at year-end 2014, from 334 million users by end of this year
• At the end of 2009, mobile Internet penetration will reach 17% in Western Europe, the same level of adoption that PCs with Internet access had in 1999

48. In-Stat, Wi-Fi Connectivity, Published 9/1/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39388.php?source=rss

• Wi-Fi enabled products continue to proliferate across nearly all categories, including computing, networking, consumer electronics and mobile devices. Over 1,000 new products were launched with Wi-Fi in 2008; 2009 promises to surpass that mark
• Among the key growth areas is stationary consumer electronics (CE) devices with Wi-Fi. Stationary CE devices include products that require access to a power source, such as televisions and digital photo frames. In 2008, manufacturers introduced nearly 100 new Wi-Fi enabled stationary CE products, up from 22 in 2007. Introductions are increasing in 2009, with over 55 in the first half of 2009
• Digital photo frames and digital audio players with Wi-Fi were among the key device types to see a surge in product introductions in 2008 compared to 2007. In 2009, Wi-Fi enabled digital televisions are among the highest growth of new product introductions for stationary CE devices
• Philips consumer electronics was among the most aggressive competitors, pushing an array of new Wi-Fi-equipped digital audio players and digital TVs. In the digital photo frame category, adoption of Wi-Fi in 2008 new product introductions was broad-based across 17 different competitors

• Hewlett Packard had the most Wi-Fi enabled new product introductions of any manufacturer in 2008, and nearly tripled their new product introductions in 2008 compared to 2007.
• Cisco leads the market in first half of 2009 with 802.11n-enabled product introductions overall. Samsung electronics leads market in 802.11n consumer electronics.
• 802.11 b/g solutions are still the dominant Wi-Fi technology in new product introductions in 2008. However, 802.11 Draft n 2.0 solutions are gaining rapidly, and are expected to become the most popular Wi-F technology across most product categories by the end of 2009.
• Philips, looking to grab a market leadership position in Internet-enabled television sets, released more Wi-Fi enabled television sets than the rest of the market combined.

49. Www.TelecomsMarketResearch.com, Will 3G Networks Cope? Published 9/1/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS148806+01-Sep-2009+BW20090901

http://www.telecomsmarketresearch.com/research/TMAAASFQ-Will-3G-Networks-Cope--.shtml

• 3G traffic volumes will continue to grow significantly and some HSPA networks will have capacity shortfalls by the middle of 2010
• 3G networks globally have seen substantial traffic growth, as some 2/2.5G customers have moved to 3G services and mobile broadband services have emerged
• Critical HSPA capacity will soon be used up, with the continued take-up of mobile broadband services and the migration of most 2/2.5G users to 3G services within five years
• Mobile broadband services are having a profound impact on networks, despite a mobile broadband penetration of less than 10% in most countries; such services are extremely network intensive; a mobile broadband customer using 1GB a month consumes the equivalent network capacity of over 7,000 minutes of voice telephony
• To the end of 2014, 3G traffic volumes in developed markets will increase 20-fold. Drivers include
  • Increased 3G penetration
  • Continued adoption of mobile broadband services
  • Escalating penetration of smart-phones
  • Proliferation of flat-rate service bundles
  • Increasing usage of 3G devices indoors
• There are significant differences in the outlook for different types of 3G operators; some incumbent 3G operators with large customer bases will face HSPA capacity shortfalls in mid-2010, or even earlier if customers migrate rapidly from 2/2.5G to 3g services. In contrast, new-entrant 3G operators will not suffer from severe short-term limitations of HSPA capacity, and will have a two-year window of opportunity to aggressively promote mobile broadband services

50. Coda Research Consultancy, Laptops and Netbooks: Mobile Broadband Traffic Across Regions 2009 – 2017, Published 9/3/2009

http://newsblaze.com/story/2009090300412500001.we/topstory.html

http://www.gadgetlite.com/2009/09/03/mobile-broadband-watching-videos/

• Portable laptop and netbook users will access 1.3 exabytes of video content per month by 2017 – a sixty fold increase over 2009
• This figure will account for 3/4 of all global traffic via mobile broadband portables
• The region for top video consumption will be Asia Pacific, which will account for just over half (53%) of all video traffic globally. In contrast Europe will account for 26% and North America 14%
• The prominence of Asia Pacific represents its overall broadband traffic consumption via portables
• Just under half (46%) of all global traffic via portables will be consumed in Asia Pacific due in part to mobile broadband being the sole vehicle for many people to access broadband in developing countries. To compare, Europe will account for 26% of all grlobal video traffic, North America 15%, Middle East and Africa for 5%, and Central and South America for 8%
• 2/3 of global traffic via portables will be via Long Term Evolution (LTE) come 2017
• Asia Pacific will consume just under half (45%) of global LTE traffic via portables
• However, Europe and North America will be ahead in terms of LTE takeup. 80% of traffic via portables in Europe will be via LTE, and three quarters of traffic in North America will be via LTE
• By falling behind in passing adequate legislation, many governments have hindered operators from keeping up with the behaviour and expectations of the majority of consumers. LTE will help meet consumers’ demands once it begins to impact the market, but this will not be until 2013
• Of particular note, according to Coda Research, is the type of data traffic that will drive this growth in Europe between 2012 and 2017:

• • Video will lead with a CAGR of 93 per cent
  • Audio traffic will see a CAGR of 79 per cent
  • Data (internet access, etc.) will experience a CAGR of 78 per cent
  • P2P will see a CAGR of 77 per cent
• European users will lead the charge into LTE with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50 per cent. This latest report from Coda Research states that, by 2013, North America will have seven million LTE users, Asia/Pacific 13 million and Europe 15 million. However, Europe will be overtaken by Asia/Pacific in 2016, with the Chinese becoming dominant users in the region.
• LTE revenues will greatest in Europe. LTE revenues in Europe will rise by a CAGR of 47% over 2012, and will form 83 per cent of all mobile broadband revenue in this region, while LTE revenues from North America will form 72 per cent of all mobile broadband revenues for this region

51. Idate, FTTH and FTTB Deployments, Published 9/3/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448593

• Asia accounts for nearly 80% of the world’s FTTH and FTTB subscribers
• Last year ended with over 22.7 million FTTH/B subscribers in Asia, up from 17.9 million at the end of 2007, boosted by recent Chinese investments and underpinned by established, large-scale deployments in Japan and South Korea
• There were approximately 29 million FTTH/B subscribers worldwide, which form part of a larger group of 28 million subscribers to a mix of fibre access technologies, which includes VDSL
• At the end of 2008 China’s ZTE and Huawei, and Mitsubishi of Japan held the world’s three top slots for FTTx equipment sales, according to Idate with market shares of 19%, 13% and 7%, respectively. The analyst firm estimated that as of the end of 2008 a total of 83.3 million FTTx ports had been deployed worldwide
• Although Asia dominates, the U.S. – where Verizon and AT&T both have been laying high-speed fibre access networks to offer triple play services – which experienced the steepest percentage rise in subscriber numbers last year.
• At the end of 2008 there were 5 million FTTx subscribers in North America, up 90% from the end of 2007, with 1.9 million new subscribers alone for FTTH and FTTB, as opposed to other FTTx technologies such as VDSL, fibre-to-the-last amplifier (FTTLA) and FTTX+LAN networks
• Meanwhile Europe, where the EC is still struggling to reach consensus on its new regulatory framework for telecoms, which will define next-generation access regulation, has been lagging
• At the end of 2008 Europe was home to only 1.5 million subscribers, or 5% of the world’s total, up from just over 1 million a year earlier, with Sweden, Italy, Norway, France, Denmark and the Netherlands together accounting for 81% of the subscriber base
• Whereas in large Asian markets the telcos dominated the market at the end of 2008 – NTT had a 73% share of the Japanese market, China Telecom a 65% share of its domestic market, followed by China Unicom with a 30% share, and Korea Telecom had a 33% share of its home market – the reverse is true in Europe.
• Municipalities and power utilities still accounted for 62% of the FTTH/B market in Europe at the end of 2008, with altnets and ISPs taking a further 25% and incumbents a mere 5% share
• The company predicts there will be 140 million FTTx subscribers worldwide by 2014, of which 114.4 million will subscribe to FTTH/B and 25.6 million will subscribe to VDSL. Of these just over 20 million will be in Europe, a further 20 million will be in North America, with Asia home to the remaining approximately 90 million

52. Nokia Siemens Networks, Mobile Data Traffic Growth, Broadband World Forum, Paris, 9/7/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448681&mail=86&C=0

• Mobile data traffic growth will outstrip fixed-line growth by a factor of 10 in the next five years
• Last year data traffic in fixed networks was up 50%; mobile data traffic grew by four times
• Mobile data network traffic will be up 300-fold in the next five years, compared with fixed going up 30 to 40 times
• By 2015 we will effectively be operating mobile data networks
• As the uptake of mobile data services increases, network providers will need to build a closer relationship with end users to enable their operator customers to improve the user experience and therefore reduce churn
• The challenge facing network providers to focus more on end-users is compounded by the increasing complexity in the access network, driven by the rising number of services and applications by consumers

53. Frost & Sullivan, Mobile Services in North Asia, Published 9/7/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39463.php?source=rss

• North Asia is light years ahead of other ASian sub-regions in terms of mobile service innovation and revenues, thanks to countries like Japan which is expected to launch LTE in 2010 – likely to be the first in the world – and along with South Korea, are two nations with the highest ARPU in Asia Pacific (Japan – US$53.20/month in 2008 and South Korea – US$38.04/month)
• Despite such heavyweights and market saturation in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea, juggernaut China ensures that mobile subscriber growth will most certainly continue
• The North Asian region is expected to be home to just over one billion mobile users by the end of 2009, representing a year-on-year subscriber growth of 15.3 percent; China alone will house 80 percent of that billion
• The mobile subscriber base in the region – covering five North Asian nations including Japan – grew 10.1 percent year-on-year to reach 878.1 million users in 2008, accounting for nearly half of the total mobile subscribers in Asia-Pacific (18 countries) last year
• Forecasted to grow at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 7.7 percent (2008-2014), North Asia’s mobile subscribers are expected to surpass 1.37 billion users by end-2014
• Mobile services in North Asia are expected to gross an estimated US$183 billion in revenues this year, and are forecasted to reach billings of US$229.8 billion by end-2014, at a CAGR of 5.2 percent (2008-2014)
• “The bulk of this growth, both in terms of subscribers and revenues, will naturally be driven by China,” says Frost & Sullivan senior industry analyst Jeff Teh. “With a mobile penetration rate of just 51.6 percent in 2008, China remains the largest and one of the fastest-growing mobile services market in the world.”
• Hong Kong’s mobile penetration rate stood at 133.2 percent in 2008, Japan at 86.5 percent, South Korea at 94 percent, and Taiwan at 110.9 percent
• In Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, Teh believes that growth, however marginal, will be driven less by subscriber addition and more by data usage prompted mainly by mobile broadband and 3G service uptake. Even so, just barely, “We expect intense price competition in these markets with the vast majority of mobile data subscribers using flat-rate plans,” he explains
• Given the high degree of competition, Teh expects operator revenues in these markets (ex-China) to grow at a low CAGR of under one percent from now till 2014
• Mobile operators in China however are expected to bill close to US$85.7 billion by the end of 2009, and close the year 2014 at revenues of US$132.6 billion – for a CAGR of 13 percent (2008-2014) – and 1.15 billion subscribers
• In 2008, China had 687.2 million subscribers, accounting for 78.2 percent of North Asia’s mobile users; Japan – 110.4 million (12.6 percent); South Korea – 45.6 million (5.2 percent); Taiwan – 25.6 million (2.9 percent); and Hong Kong – 9.3 million (1.1 percent)

54. Ericsson, Mobile Broadband Subscriber Growth, Broadband World Forum, Paris 9/7/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448676

• Swedish vendor’s new CEO predicts 7 billion subscribers by 2014, rising to 50 billion connections in 2020
• In five years we will have almost 3 billion mobile broadband subscribers
• Currently 4 billion mobile users worldwide; five years we are forecasting 7 billion; this number will naturally include some users with more than one SIM
• By 2020, broadband will move “from the phase of installation to the phase of deployment,” likening the development of broadband to that of steam, coal and iron, which spawned the railways, and steel and heavy engineering, which gave rise to steam ships; both developments created new ‘highways’, or opportunities to explore new places
• In 2020 mobile broadband will be massively deployed; telecoms players have the opportunity to take the lead in defining what applications and services will run on those highways
• 50 billion connections in 2020; not all of these connections will be used at all times, and not all will be human connections; Non-human connections could include the installation of soft SIM cards in cars, that could be programmed to turn on motorway lights late at night as needed, thereby reducing power consumption, or could facilitate virtual universities
• By 2050 the focus will be squarely on sustainability; with some investment, the telecoms industry could have the potential to reduce global CO2 emissions by 15-20%

55. ABI Research, Mobile Cloud Computing, Published 9/8/2009

http://www.internetnews.com/mobility/article.php/3837921

• The number of mobile device users tapping cloud computing services is a tiny fraction of the overall market today
• Over the next five years, there will be almost a billion subscribers to mobile cloud computing services, up from only 42.8 million in 2008
• 1.1% of all mobile subscribers using cloud computing services today will jump to almost 19% (998 million) by 2014
• Location-based services will help power a rapid uptick
• From 2008 through 2010, subscriber numbers will be driven by location-enabled services, particularly navigation and map applications; A total of 60 percent of the mobile Cloud application subscribers worldwide will use an application enabled by location during these years
• More broadly, ABI Research expects business productivity applications to dominate the mix of mobile cloud applications, particularly collaborative document sharing, scheduling, and sales force management apps. The major cloud players will lead the charge, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Amazon (GOOG: AMZN) and Salesforce (NYSE: CRM)
• Vendors are already matching cloud services and mobility to come up with some innovative commercial applications. The research study notes, for example, LiNk, from lock manufacturer Schlage. LiNK is a keyless lock system for the home that enables subscribers to remotely control not only the door lock, but heating/cooling, security cameras and light monitors, all via PC or mobile device
• By 2014, mobile cloud computing will become the leading mobile application development and deployment strategy, displacing today’s native and downloadable mobile applications
• Mobile device manufacturers are also developing new hardware to tap cloud services. Mobile phone chipset giant Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) expects its Snapdragon mobile chipset to appear in “smartbook” devices this year

56. Infonetics Research, Mobile Services and Subscribers Outlook: Voice, SMS/MMS, and Broadband, Published 9/9/09

http://au.sys-con.com/node/1099986

• Revenue service providers collected from cellular services hit $624 billion in 2008 (up 13% from 2007) and is expected to top $877 billion by 2010
• Between 2009 and 2013, worldwide mobile broadband service revenue will more than double
• While service provider revenue from mobile broadband and SMS/MMS (text messaging/multimedia messaging) services is growing rapidly, voice service continues to make up the large majority of service provider revenue
• Voice service revenue will grow slowly through 2013, driven by continuing mobile subscriber growth in developing countries and the gradual move from fixed to mobile voice in developing countries
• LTE service revenue is forecast to grow fast, reaching $41.7 billion in 2013, with the majority coming from North America by 2012, due to Verizon’s and then AT&T’s LTE deployments
• Asia Pacific leads the mobile broadband race, led by early adopters in Australia, Japan, and South Korea
• By 2013, W-CDMA/HSPA service revenue will be almost 5 times that of CDMA 1XEV-DO, as the majority of worldwide mobile subscribers are on GSM networks
• The number of mobile broadband subscribers is forecast to hit 1 billion in 2013

57. Infonetics, Telecom and Datacom Network Equipment, Published 7/15/2009

http://www.infonetics.com/pr/2009/1-total-telecom-datacom-market-research-highlights.asp

• Telecom and datacom equipment tracked by Infonetics Research grew 8% in 2008, with worldwide revenue totaling $150 billion, driven in large part by currency appreciation against the US dollar
• The two largest segments of the telecom/datacom market by revenue: service provider mobile/wireless infrastructure and enterprise router/switch/wireless LAN equipment
• Cisco leads the overall worldwide telecom/datacom network equipment market in 2008, followed by Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson; they dominate the enterprise segment
• The battle for service provider money rages on, with Ericsson maintaining its lead in the carrier network equipment segment in 2008, while Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia Siemens continue their neck and neck race for second
• The biggest increases in revenue market share in the service provider network equipment market in 2008 were made by Samsung, ZTE, and Huawei
• The Asia Pacific region, led by China and India, is forecast to increase its telecom/datacom revenue market share by 5 points from 2008 to 2013, taking from EMEA and North America

58. Infonetics, Mobile Broadband Cards, Routers, Services and Subscribers, Published 9/14/2009

http://uk.sys-con.com/node/1105700

• Huawei leads revenue market share in the fast-growing mobile broadband card market, based on healthy HSPA and EV-DO shipments and a broad mix of PC card and embedded card formats
• Several other vendors are doing well in this market as well, including Sierra Wireless, ZTE, Novatel, Sony-Ericsson, and Option. As mobile broadband spreads to developing countries, Huawei and ZTE expecetd to improve their market share, as both vendors perform strongly in these markets
• Mobile broadband card market grew 10% sequentially in the first half of 2009, driven by increased sdoption of HSPA and demand for netbooks
• Manufacturer revenue from mobile broadband cards is forecast to hit $8.4 billion worldwide by 2013
• Worldwide, the number of mobile broadband subscribers is expected to near 1 billion by 2013 (including phone and PC based W-CDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000/EV-DO, and LTE subscribers)
• Mobile subscriber growth is being fueled by people seeking basic voice service, particularly in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), all migrating to 3G, which in turn will drive mobile broadband subscriber adoption
• CDMA operators have been quicker off the blocks with mobile broadband, rolling out EV-DO earlier than GSM operators upgraded their networks to W-CDMA/HSPA, resulting in significantly higher CDMA2000/EV-DO mobile broadband card adoption
• Between 2009 and 2013, worldwide service provider revenue from mobile broadband services is forecast to more than double
• Companies tracked in Infonetics’ mobile broadband report include D-Link, Huawei, Kyocera, Motorola, NETGEAR, Novatel, Option, Proxicast, Sierra Wireless, SonicWALL, Sony-Ericsson, ZTE, and others.

59. ATLANTIC-ACM, U.S. Telecom Wired and Wireless Sizing and Share: 2009-2014, Published 9/15/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS108287+15-Sep-2009+BW20090915

• Projected 11% CAGR in Consumer VOIP revenue (2008-2014) will not be sufficient to offset the projected decline of 10% per year (compounded) from 2008 to 2014 in consumer switched voice revenue
• This will result in net decline of almost $16 billion in consumer voice market from 2008 to 2014
• Consumers are moving toward wireless-only solutions in some cases, and VoIP substitution in others
• While revenues in this particular segment will decline, this same technology migration is driving growth in other telecom segments such as wireless services and Internet access
• Total wireless revenues will overtake total wireline revenues by 2014, according to the study, and consumer Internet access growth will continue, adding $7 billion to the market through 2014
• Internet access growth will be driven by FTTH, plays by AT&T, Verizon and Qwest, which are projected to benefit fro a CAGR of 28% in revenues for those products from 2008 to 2014

60. Evalueserve, 3G services in India, Published 9/15/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448944&mail=93&C=0

• India’s total mobile customer base will be close to 1 billion by the end of 2013, of which 275 million will be 3G subscribers
• This growth will be fuelled primarily by a decline in the price of 3G services, resulting from fierce competition among private players
• Evalueserve said it expects a price war to break out among the private operators as they battle for market share in the early stages of 3G service rollout. Operators will primarily target the under-24 age group, which makes up around 54% of India’s total population
• Unsurprisingly, the company expects customers in urban areas living above the poverty line to account for the lion’s share of 3G subscribers in the early years. Around 80% of all 3G subscribers by 2013 will be from this segment, with 50% of the total urban, above poverty line market having 3G by the same date
• At the other end of the scale, the below poverty line segment – both urban and rural – “is expected to remain dormant over four to five years following the launch of 3G,”
• Meanwhile, 3G will start to have an impact in the rural, above poverty line segment after 2011, when 3G services geared towards rural areas will come on line
• 3G handset sales will also grow rapidly between now and 2013. The number of 3G phones in circulation in India by that date is expected to reach 395 million up from more than 20 million today
• As handset manufacturers are preparing to launch 3G handsets for as low as US$100, it is expected that by 2013 3G handsets will account for over 40% of the total mobile handset base in India
• Evalueserve also said it expects total mobile penetration to reach 78.3% in India in 2013, up from around 30% last year
• Penetration in the above poverty line urban sector will be 142.5%, compared with 79% in the rural above poverty line market

61. Yankee Group, Beyond 4G Rhetoric: Capitalizing the Mobile Internet

http://uk.sys-con.com/node/1107932

• Mobile Internet is spawning new, tougher competition. Service providers are not only challenged to transform their businesses for the mobile Internet, but must also keep up with innovative non-carrier competitors, like device makers Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM and Nokia, as well as new entrants in emerging markets.
• High smartphone usage will continue to stress networks. Yankee Group surveys show 60 percent of users are likely or highly likely to purchase a smartphone as their next mobile device. Data traffic is expected to increase by more than 29 times between 2009 and 2015, with most demand coming from smartphones. In fact, the proportion of data traffic coming from smartphones will increase from 18.5 to 56 percent between 2009 and 2015.
• Service providers must overhaul their infrastructure. “In addition to moving to all-IP cores, service providers must adopt holistic strategies to transform their entire network, IT and operational ecosystems,” says Phil Marshall, senior research fellow and author of the report. “Service providers must capitalize on the mobile Internet or perish.”
• While 60 percent of users surveyed by Yankee Group say they are interested in mobile Internet access, just 3 percent say they are anxiously awaiting 4G and 43 percent say they have heard the term “4G” but don’t understand what it means. That disconnect is just one hurdle service providers must overcome before they can successfully reap the promise of 4G and the mobile Internet

62. Research and Markets, Laptops and Netbooks: Mobile Broadband Traffic Across Regions 2009 – 2017, Published 9/21/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS107240+21-Sep-2009+BW20090921

* Traffic via portables to reach 1.8 exabytes per month by 2017 - a CAGR of 59%
over 2009.
* Nearly three quarters (1.3 exabytes) of this will be video traffic - a CAGR of
64% over 2009.
* Top region for video consumption will be Asia Pacific, which will account for
just over half (53%) of all video traffic globally. To contrast, Europe will
account for 26% of all global video traffic, and North America 14%.
* The prominence of Asia Pacific represents its overall broadband traffic
consumption via portables. Just under half (46%) of all global traffic via
portables will be consumed in Asia Pacific. This is due in part to mobile
broadband being the sole vehicle for many people to access broadband in
developing countries.
* To compare, Europe will account for 26% of all global traffic, North America
for 15%, Middle East and Africa for 5%, and Central and South America for 8%.
* Two thirds of global traffic via portables will be via Long Term Evolution
(LTE) come 2017.
* LTE to form two thirds of global traffic by 2017.
* Asia Pacific will consume just under half (45%) of global LTE traffic via
portables by 2017. However, Europe and North America will be ahead in terms of
LTE take up. 80% of traffic via portables in Europe will be via LTE, and three
quarters of traffic in North America will be via this specification.
* Service providers, content owners and rights' holders should be greatly
concerned about forecasts for video content consumed illegally in Asia Pacific.
This contrasts with most developed countries, where legal video will tend to
dominate mobile broadband traffic. Overall, the vast amount of traffic people
will consume worldwide will put pressure on operator revenues and network
capacity, necessitating radical efficiency drives.
* In the short term, increased frustration with bandwidth and speed will grow.
In parts of western Europe, as many as three quarters of users are dissatisfied
with the speeds they receive. We understand that government inaction is partly
to blame. By falling behind in passing adequate legislation, many governments
have hindered operators from keeping up with the behaviour and expectations of
the majority of consumers. LTE will help meet consumers' demands once it begins
to impact the market, but this will not be until 2013.

63. Infonetics Research, Residential Voice, Video and Data Services in North America: Market Outlook, Published 9/17/2009

http://blog.telephonyonline.com/briefingroom/2009/09/17/infonetics-residential-voice-video-and-data-services-to-hit-300-billion-by-2013/

- North American service provider revenue from residential voice, video and Internet access services hit $261 billion in 2008 and is expected to grow to $300 billion by 2013

- By 2011, the video services market will surpass the voice services market, but will be marked by high programming costs and tight margins

- Broadband access represents the true growth engine for residential services, with North American revenue growing at a 12% average annual rate from 2008 to 2013

- Comcast and DirecTV are in a tight battle in the residential video services segment, with Comcast holding on to the lead in 2008 by just 2 points

- Through its FiOS service, Verizon captures the majority of North American IPTV subscribers (54%) in 2008

- In 2008, wireline Internet access (e.g., dial-up, cable broadband, DSL, FTTH) had 64% household penetration in North America

- The percentage of North American households with traditional phone lines (PSTN voice service) is forecast to drop from 69% in 2007 to 26% by 2013, as consumers opt for mobile-only services or VoIP alternatives

64. Forward Concepts, 3G/LTE Enabled Notebook Computers, Published 9/17/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39651.php?source=rss

• Future netbook computer users are expected to place more emphasis on pervasive Internet connectivity that will drive increasingly higher penetration of embedded 3G (and later LTE) capability. This, coupled with increasing operator traction, will drive the growth of 3G Netbook category at a 124% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reaching 34 million units in 2014 reaching a 45% 3G/LTE attachment rate
• A report from Forward Concepts also notes that Smartbooks & Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) will ship with near-ubiquitous 3G/LTE connectivity and will benefit from the pent up demand for a compact multimedia intensive, always-on, ultra-mobile device. They project these devices to grow at a 176% CAGR reaching 63 million units in 2014
• As LTE networks begin to emerge in 2010, they will be the fastest growing air-interface technology in 3G/LTE Netbooks and Smartbooks/MIDs reaching 5 million and 4.1 million units, respectively, in 2014
• As a result of limited upward mobility of non-captive Smartphone O/S, Smartbooks are currently lacking an ‘anchor’ web-centric, multitasking and lightweight O/S capable of fully exploiting the ARM-based applications processors. It is unlikely that Microsoft will be porting Windows7 to ARM platforms, but Maemo, Android, and Chrome are among early O/S candidates for Smartbooks, whether they be based on ARM Processors or on X86 platforms, like Intel’s upcoming Moorestown
• The study provides detailed forecasts of Netbooks/Smartbooks & MIDs and compares them with our forecasts of Notebooks and Smartphones, as well. The individual integrated circuits forecast in the study are predicted to total $9.7 billion in 2014 and the report provides detailed forecasts for application processors, basebands, RF transceivers, and for the myriad of ancillary chips that make up the devices

65. ABI Research, WWAN Modem and Router Market Data, Published 9/21/2009

http://www.your-story.org/cellular-modem-and-router-market-on-target-for-46-million-shipments-in-2009-says-abi-research-35161/

http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1003050

• Shipments of cellular modems, which provide direct Internet connectivity to laptops and other portable devices, are forecast to exceed 46 million this year
• In the past two years, USB modems have quickly eclipsed PC cards. 82% of all modem types are now USB
• Their popularity is due to their simplicity – they resemble flash drives – and flexibility: they can be used on a wide variety of devices. The same conditions please the vendors as well
• While only high-end computers currently offer built-in modems, over time they will be included in less expensive models. When world economies improve, there will be more devices with embedded connectivity. Embedded module shipments are forecast to exceed USB modem shipments by early 2013
• Exiting 2008, the cellular module market had a distinctly Chinese flavor: Huawei accounted for 45% of all units shipped, while rival ZTE had captured a further 21% market share. The degree of consolidation on the USB form means economies of scale, and we are reaching a stage at which price becomes more important than availability
• A new product class has recently debuted: the “mobile router,” which provides online access via cellular connection and distributes it among nearby Wi-Fi-enabled devices. ABI characterizes these devices (best exemplified by Novatel’s recently introduced “Mi-Fi” product) as “so far more hype than end users,” but notes that they could, if widely adopted, slow the penetration rate of embedded modems

66. Chetan Sharma Consulting, 1st half of 2009 Update, Published 9/22/2009

http://gigaom.com/2009/09/22/us-leading-the-global-mobile-data-boom/

• China and India may be well on their way to dominating the voice world with billions of users, but when it comes to mobile data, U.S. companies are leading the charge, showing strong growth both in terms of overall traffic and revenue
• A lot of the growth in the U.S. is coming as a result of the availability of 3G services, flat-rate data plans and of course, mobile devices such as the iPhone

• Mobile data now accounts for 25 percent of total global service revenue.
• Verizon is the second-largest carrier in terms of mobile data, edging past China Mobile and closing in on NTT DoCoMo, which had revenues of $8 billion.
• U.S. data revenues were $20.6 billion vs. $16 billion for Japan and $8.6 billion for China during the first six months of this year.
• Top 10 global wireless carriers now account for 63 percent of global mobile data revenue.
• Biggest mobile growth was registered by Verizon, AT&T and Softbank. Two out of those three companies sell iPhones.
• Data revenue for the overall industry was up 10 percent from the second half of 2008, showing that the current craze for smartphones is helping to boost mobile Internet usage.

67. Analysys Mason, Mobile Data and Emerging Markets, Published 10/5/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39915.php?source=rss

• The worldwide telecoms market will grow at a 6% CAGR to reach USD2.4 trillion in revenue in 2013; growth will be driven by mobile data services
• Communication service providers (CSPs) are launching 3G networks in many emerging markets, such as China and India, and LTE technology will become available in most mature markets during the next few years. Analysys Mason predicts that mobile data traffic will grow at a 131% CAGR through 2013
• While mobile data presents the greatest revenue opportunity for operators, it could also be their biggest challenge. They must find ways to monetise that traffic so that all of the value doesn’t go to device manufacturers, such as Apple and Nokia, and content owners. Flat-rate, ‘all-you-can-eat’ plans break the link between traffic and revenue, so are not a sustainable solution
• The report shows that CSPs have managed their costs successfully in a difficult environment. The global telecoms services market grew by 5% in 2008 to reach USD1.8 trillion in revenue, despite the economic downturn. Even more encouraging was the year-on-year growth in EBITDA, which stood at a very impressive 10%
• Mobile services continue to be the leading source of revenue. Mobile voice services accounted for 36% of global service revenue in 2008, and mobile data services accounted for 10%, while traditional voice services represented only 21%. There are more than twice as many mobile subscribers in the world as there are traditional voice lines – 4 billion versus 2 billion. In emerging markets, mobile services tend to account for an even larger share of service revenue – up to 58%, in some cases
• The mature markets of North America, Western Europe and developed Asia-Pacific accounted for 70% of global telecoms revenue in 2008, but the emerging markets registered greater growth rates. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central and Latin America, emerging Asia-Pacific, and Central and Eastern Europe all achieved double -digit revenue growth in 2008

DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS ON THIS POSTING ARE ENTIRELY MINE AND DO NOT REFLECT THE VIEW OF IBM, MY ISV PARTNERS OR MY CLIENTS.

In my previous postings, I outlined the advantages that the Telcos have in becoming the preferred Integration Communication Experience (ICE) provider and discussed the 1st two key steps in moving in that direction. In this posting, I will focus on the 3rd of the five imperatives laid out by me – focussing on a different set of financial metrics than they currently do.

When I look at financial reports of Telcos anywhere over the world, even the best of the companies typically talk about the normal corporate financial measures and then go into Telecom industry accepted metrics such as ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), % share of markets by access types (Wireless, Fixed line …), churn. My contention is while these are all good indicator’s of a company’s health especially when viewed in conjunction with each other, they limit the Telcos measures to specific narrow areas. Isolated financial measures lead to isolated thinking & action, isolated incentive programs for executives driving behavior that is siloed and has nothing to do with becoming a true provider of full services of the Telco.

Therefore for all integrated Telcos, a more appropriate measure probably would be Wallet Share of ICE (WASI ** – trade-marked by me ) … I am sure that by now you are getting the drift of where I am going with this if you have read my earlier posts. WASI would measure the total % of the spend by end customers in the Telcos’ offerings across Information, Communication and Entertainment that passes through the Telco’s books.

WASI (Wallet share of ICE) = Telco ICE revenue from all subscribers in service area
____________________________________________
Total spend on ICE by subscribers in service area

The numerator could comprise of revenue that hits the Telco’s books not only from core access and content services created by the Telco, but content and digital merchandise revenue share form 3rd party content providers, software vendors et al.

The denominator could comprise of the total spend of all households in the service area on digital entertainment, communication and and information services.  My point is not to get these measures perfectly right and spend millions of dollars on getting consultants to measure these but rather use this measure as a strategic guiding light, as the communication vehicle for all stakeholders on what the aspirations of the company are and to galvanize every employees in the organization so that they look at the market holistically across Information, Communication and Entertainment and not be complacent having but in x or y number of extra access lines.

This measure will embed the thinking in every business executive to engineer deals which are co-operative but time-bound with partners who share revenues. It will push the IT organization and the vendors who work for them to stretch and put in place the right systems which accurately measure how the ICE share is being split up … all of which will lead to greater awareness of end customer, more informed negotiations with content partners and strategy/actions that will eventually lead to a more intimate relationship between the Telco and its end customer.

So the WASI was the strategic measure on the revenue side, now lets move to a fundamental change on the cost side measurements that is required to be a true Integrated Communication Experience (ICE) provider. As outlined in my earlier posts, Telcos have built vertical organizations around specific technologies so the typical investment “gating” process in most Telcos still is “siloed” and allocated to specific offerings with a few key big network strategic spends thrown into the mix. An offering X is planned, the sponsors fit the offering into a bucket by departmental line and a portion of the network cost and all non-network costs (including the big IT investments) are all allocated to the specific offering. When the financial folks get wind of the costs, they reject the offering or wheedle it down till it become a “siloed” offering that is often meaningless to the customer. What is required is not costs by products or departments but rather sharing all costs (network to IT to customer Care to Sales & Marketing) for new offerings but being stringent in evaluating how the offering will increase the WASI for the company. Thus major departmental battles are put aside, horizontal systems supporting multiple offering are funded, resources are allocated where it matters most – getting a bigger share of the ICE wallet of the subscriber and thus increasing the relevance of the Telco to the consumer. No longer does every offering have its own provisioning, customer care and billing system, rather the company builds common infrastructure that serve multi-divisional offerings. No longer will the need be for the recurring “systems rationalization” exercise undertaken by IT intermittently at the cost of millions of $$$ trying to undo the harm created by funding specific offerings with their own supporting IT systems.

Having gone through identifying the true ICE needs of the customer and building the organization and financial measures that support the ICE model, the net step is to re-think partnering. More on that in my next posting. Adios !

via Indian mobile users to hit 771 mn by 2013: Gartner – The Financial Express on June 18, 2009

Bangalore: Indian mobile users will jump more than 90 per cent to 771 million by 2013 as companies expand networks to rural areas in the world’s fastest growing wireless market, research firm Gartner said.

India had 403.66 million wireless users at the end of April, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India figures showed earlier this month, second only to China that has more than 600 million wireless subscribers.

Cheap call tariffs and handsets are driving demand in India, where operators such as Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications are now building telecom towers and networks to cover smaller towns and villages to hook new users.

Gartner, the world’s biggest technology research firm, sees mobile subscriber base growing at a compound annual growth rate of 14.3 per cent in the four years to 2013, up from an estimated 452 million by the end of 2009.

Revenues of Indian mobile phone companies will exceed $30 billion in 2013, rising at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5 per cent over the same period, it said.

“The Indian mobile industry has now moved out of its hyper growth mode, but it will continue to grow at double-digit rates … as operators focus on rural parts of the country, said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner.

Gartner, however, predicted a “significant drop” in average revenue per user (ARPU) — a key gauge of performance — as the bulk of new subscribers from the hinterland usually talk less on phones and some use mobiles just to answer calls.

Bharti, which is in talks with South Africa’s telecoms firm MTN Group to create the world’s No.3 wireless group, saw a drop of 15 per cent in its March quarter ARPU as it won more new users in rural areas. The research firm said voice tariffs would fall substantially in 2009 as new operators join the market.

The telecoms unit of Indian developer Unitech Ltd will launch mobile services with Norway’s Telenor in the December quarter this year, a top company official said on Tuesday.

Bharti’s rivals such as Reliance Communications, Vodafone Essar and Idea Cellular are also rapidly expanding their services across the country.

Related stories at

• http://www.ciol.com/technology/mobility/news-reports/indian-mobile-users-to-hit-771-mln-by-2013-gartner/18609121197/0/
• http://efytimes.com/efytimes/fullnewsxml.asp?edid=35243
• http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Indian-mobile-users-to-hit-771-mln-by-2013-Gartner-/articleshow/4671022.cms

17 Jun 2009, 0305 hrs IST, Rashmi Pratap, ET Bureau

MUMBAI: Subscriber numbers in India’s wireless story are losing their relevance today as far as determining the industry position of a service provider is concerned. t will be revenues and not subscriber numbers that could decide the pecking order in the world’s fastest-growing telecom market.

This is reflected in the latest revenue figures released by the industry regulator, Trai. Going by this, the top three operators in India are Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar and Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL).

Airtel’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) from wireless and wireline operations was Rs 7,998 crore for the March quarter. Vodafone Essar, which offers only mobile services, had revenues of Rs 4,456 crore during January-March 2009 on a subscriber base of 68.7 million. Reliance Communications (RCOM), which has the second largest customer base, reported an AGR of only Rs 2,998 crore on 72.6 million users during the quarter, making it the fourth largest in terms of revenues.

The revenues for the state-owned BSNL stood at Rs 3,943 crore making it the third largest. BSNL offers mobile services on GSM apart from fixed line services. Besides showing the revenue capabilities of an operator, AGR is significant, as it is the basis on which service providers pay licence fee and spectrum charges. Operators pay a revenue share licence fee to the government ranging from 6% to 10% of their AGR. Increasingly, operators are targeting revenue growth instead of a larger user base.

According to Bharti Airtel’s vision statement, the company’s aim is 20% increase in revenue margin per subscriber in the next few years.

Analysts contend that with more and more low-end users signing up for services, it is becoming difficult for operators to maintain margins and improve ARPUs (average revenue per user per month). In such a scenario, those who continue to grow revenues along with subscriber base will be the clear winners.

“As the new subscriber base is primarily drawn from tier III towns and rural markets, the incremental subscriber addition is not leading to a commensurate revenue upside for telcos. The catchphrase to evaluate a telco’s performance will be quality of subscribers rather than the number of new subscribers,” Acsendia Consulting principal analyst, Alok Shende told ET.

A smaller player like Idea Cellular, which operates in 13 circles, had AGR of Rs 2,389 crore on a subscriber base of 39 million. This is just about Rs 600 crore less than RCOM on a base which is almost half of that company.

KPMG director (telecom) Romal Shetty said, “Initially, everyone was going after subscriber numbers. Now, they are looking at quality of subscribers. This explains the emphasis on value added services (VAS), which bring in higher revenues.” He pointed out that low-end pre-paid users are now bringing in monthly revenues of as low as Rs 70 per month.

Tata Teleservices reported revenues of Rs 1,889 crore during the quarter placing it at sixth followed by state-owned Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (MTNL). Aircel, a relatively new entrant, is at the eight position, which had AGR of Rs 721 crore during the quarter.