by Voice of Reason Raisins

JEFFERSON, GA – It’ll be a slow news morning since most of the talking heads were up way late into the early morning staying on top of the Doc Halladay / Cliff Lee 3-team blockbuster.

This much is for sure. The Derek Lowe chatter picked up dramatically last night. Most think he’ll be the next domino to fall. Most think to the LA Angels. I am 99% in that camp as well. I really do wonder, though, what will the final value be?

Many see Lowe’s 2009 season as a sign of decline. I don’t; but regardless, it’ll be used in negotiations. It’ll cost the Braves in their return.

My humble and amateur analysis deems Derek Lowe in 2009 as an anomaly. Look… the guy throws with a motion that does not tax him physically, except for the occasional blister. He’s not wearing down. He is a horse, and one of value. I believe the reports of his spotting a mechanical flaw. If I were a betting man, who I am not, I’d bet that Derek Lowe in 2010 will look closer to Derek Lowe in 2008 than Derek Lowe in 2009. And my feelings would not be hurt to see him toe the rubber in The Ted for another 3 years. But we don’t need him. He has become a surplus part. And as surplus, he’s very expensive.

But back to 2009, the guy won 15 games on a team that was obviously NOT in the top teams offensively. He must have been doing something right, huh?

So, is he worth $45MM over the next 3 years? Not to Atlanta, where they’ll still have the best top to bottom rotation in the NL, regardless of losing Lowe and regardless of Philly picking up Doc Halladay.

But what about in Los Angeles, in Halo-land? They just lost their ace John Lackey. And they lost their superman Chone Figgins… to division rival Seattle. And did you notice the Mariners just acquired Cliff Lee to go with Felix Hernandez? The Angels just got a nice kick in the teeth. Yep… just as news was breaking that The Angels were losing their ace, the news was breaking that the Mariners were adding Lee. Ouch…

All that said, as much as I’d love to see a Derek Lowe / Juan Rivera straight up swap, that won’t happen. The Braves will have to eat some of the remaining $45MM on the contract, or will have to give up a top prospect to offset it. I don’t see them giving up any top prospects, and I don’t see them paying as much as $12MM, as has been suggested. I do, though, see them paying maybe as much as $9MM, OR adding a guy like Jordan Schafer to the deal. Once you start adding pieces, though, it begins to get a little crazy.

What I mean is, the Braves wouldn’t swap Lowe + Schafer straight up for Rivera. Not equitable. So then you have to add something on the Angels end. Then you could end up with multiple players / prospects changing locale. Loopy.

In the end, it’d be nice if Frank could make it a straight up Lowe / Rivera swap, and keep all of his own pieces, including Schafer, and add a little cash on the side. Heck, it could probably happen today if Frank had Yankee money. But he doesn’t. So they’ll take some time and haggle dollars – big dollars. That could take time. But time will only increase the sense of urgency for LAA. And that need is the one thing that might make Lowe’s real trade value increase.

And while time is more on Frank’s side, he doesn’t have all winter, either. He still has to add a few more arrows to Bobby’s quiver, so he can’t exactly play a total waiting game.

Nope, this intrepid reporter – OK, this amateur Braves lovin’ spectator – thinks a deal will happen sooner than later… maybe even before Gil can get this posted. Who knows?

I do know this: the Braves and Angels now have an overlapping common goal. That should be a good place to start.

Beckett will be without Lowell to his right for the first time in his career.

I thought I had come to gripes with the whole pink hat fan base (I use this term in the least sexist way possible). The casual female fan who proudly sports pink Red Sox garb around town or at Fenway Park is not who I’m gunning for. I’m gunning for the open-toed shoe wearing, unstructured hat sporting, frat party attending know-it-all that I’ve been coming across either on the blogosphere or on the popular social networking website, BookFace (hat tip to Jim Halpart). There’s two types, both are equally frustrating. One is the “In Theo We Trust” and the other is the “In Theo we Distrust.”

Let’s go back in time for a bit. Last year at this time, Clay Buchholz rumors were running rampant. A lot of people were begging that he be flipped for one of the 3 young catching studs from Arlington; Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, or Max Ramirez. At the time, Texas still had Gerald Laird on the roster and they were fielding offers for him as well. They wound up keeping all the young guys and traded Laird to the Tigers for a pair of minor league pitchers. They then elected to start the season with the youngest of the trio, Salty, as their every day backstop, and gave Teagarden the back up job, all the while letting Ramirez stay on the farm to get some seasoning. I even mentioned here on TECB around that same time that Teagarden or Ramirez should be had, as the Rangers seemed Hell-bent on anointing Salty as their catcher of the future.

The 2009 season comes to an end. Salty got hurt and finished the year with only 283 ABs. Meanwhile, Teagarden wound up with 198 and Max Ramirez found himself with a similar amount in the minors, battling wrist injuries for most of the season. The lack of production from their catching core caused the Rangers to re-acquire the immortal Pudge Rodriguez, who led the three in hitting with a robust .245 (yes, batting average is far from the end-all, be-all of batting statistics, but the point still remains).

A little bit of history on the three backstops: Salty came to the Rangers via Atlanta in a trade packaged around Mark Teixeira. They also received, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus, and Neftali Feliz. Feliz and Andrus have shown more success at the Big League level than Salty has. Teagarden is a  kid, born in Dallas, attended Texas University and then finally drafted by the Rangers.  To me, he should have been the odds-on favorite from the get-go. Max Ramirez is also a product of Atlanta. He was an undrafted free agent who was flipped to Cleveland a few years back for Bob “Everybodies’ Plummer Look-a-like” Wickman at the deadline. The following year, Cleveland traded him to Texas for Kenny Lofton. All along, Ramirez has had doubts that he would stick behind the plate for the duration of his career. But he’s had the most minor league success of the three and is still considered a prospect by many. I’m not sure you can still say that about Teagarden, since he’ll entering his age-26 season for 2010. Teagarden, however, is injury free at the moment. Ramirez has wrist concerns and Saltly had to leave a winter league game recently due to soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder.

I digressed a little there. My issue is that this trade makes more sense to the Red Sox than it does for the Rangers. Yet I’ve heard and seen plenty of backlash since the rumors were first reported. I think the money exchanging hands is largely responsible. Whenever the Red Sox are paying large chunks of players’ salaries while said player is wearing another uniform, fans seem to take personal exception since tickets to Fenway are outrageous. For these folks, they should probably Google “supply and demand” before they make any more wild accusations.

Youk moving to 3rd will help defensively and a 1st base/catcher/DH rotation between Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz and Kasey Kotchman has the potential to be pretty productive. Ramirez could spend the first few months down in Pawtucket and be brought to be Victor Martinez lite. Not to mention the fact that Ramirez will be Boston property for a few seasons where as Lowell was as good as gone at the end of 2010 regardless. He’s an awesome guy and a club house leader whose veteran presence will be missed. But let’s not over value someone in their later 30’s with a surgically repaired arthritic hip who can’t run out ground balls. When Man-Ram didn’t run out grounders, it was off with his head. When Lowell did it, people felt bad. If you can’t run, whether it is from injury or being apathetic, then being flipped for a young power hitting catcher/1st baseman shouldn’t be ostracized. This trade looks good, even in Pink Hat colored glasses.

Nothing major has transpired today, but here’s the latest rumblings:

The Ivan Rodriquez signing has become official. The Nationals signed him to a two-year deal worth $6 million. This is a terrible signing for the Nats.

The White Sox agreed to terms with RP J.J. Putz on a one-year deal worth a base salary of $3 million. Putz can earn more based on how many appearances he makes next year.

The St Louis Cardinals have made a formal offer to OF Matt Holliday. Holliday, a Boras client, is believed to be looking for a contract in excess of $100 million.

Add Jason Marquis to the list of starting pitchers the Mariners covet. The Mariners are also interested in Ben Sheets, John Lackey, Doug Davis, and Jarrod Washburn.

The Yankees hope to retain OF Johnny Damon. The sides appear to be far apart on reaching an agreement.

The Blue Jays are interested in OF Marcus Thames. Thames would provide some pop and could be used in a platoon, as he mashes left-handed pitchers. The Indians are also thought to be interested.

There are several acquisitions I should mention in today’s post. The Houston Astros have acquired RP Matt Lindstrom from The Marlins in exchange for a pair of prospects. The Marlins are notorious for trading players before a pay increase.  Sticking with the Astros, they have also signed 3B Pedro Feliz to a one-year deal worth $4.5 million.

The Rangers have continued a busy off season by signing SP Rich Harden to a one-year deal worth $6.5 million. This should help fill the void created when they traded SP Kevin Millwood to the Orioles yesterday.

The White Sox are aggressively pursuing RP J.J. Putz and are considered the frontrunners for his services.

The Colorado Rockies agreed to terms with C Chris Iannetta, signing him to a three-year deal worth $8 million.

The Mets have offered OF Jason Bay a lucrative contract worth $65 million over 4 years. It’s believed that Bay will decline this offer as he is looking for a 5-year deal.

That’s it for now. I’ll keep you posted on any new developments.

The Boston Red Sox hope they struck gold in acquiring Jeremy Hermida, who quite possibly may have been non-tendered by the Florida Marlins at month's end if not for the trade.

The Major League Baseball season began on April 5th. The season ended on November 4th with the New York Yankees popping champagne in celebration. That’s a span of seven months, from late spring to mid-fall. It was long, too long. But now it’s over. The offseason has begun.

The Trade Season started with a bang. The Boston Red Sox front office, having watched arch-rival New York finish off Philadelphia, decided to make a move, a sensible one at that. Before they traded Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Red Sox inquired about a three-way deal that would land them Florida Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida. That proposal didn’t gain any traction, and Hermida stayed with the Marlins, but despite missing out on his services, Boston remained infatuated with him and his potential, hoping he would someday be part of their quest for a World Series championship.

That someday was today. In need of outfield depth, General Manager Theo Epstein traded the organization’s 44th and 45th prospects, lefthanded pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, to Florida for Hermida, who is only 25 years old. Hermida, a 6′3″, 200-pounder, is a former top prospect in the Marlins system, and in nearly 2,000 career appearances, has put up underwhelming numbers considering his hype: .265 batting average, 57 homers, and 210 rbi’s in 516 games.

Though he has had a disappointing first few years in the majors, disappointing enough for the Marlins to give up on him, the Red Sox believe a bright future is ahead. Epstein, upon making the trade, said “He hasn’t fulfilled his potential yet. We acquired him today to see if he can fulfill that potential.” Jones and Alvarez were a small price to pay for a low-risk player who could pay immense dividends in Boston. He has a fluid swing, plate discipline, and though he doesn’t hit for a substantial amount of power, the short porch in right field at Fenway Park, as well as the Green Monster in left, could go along ways to increase his production.

Designated hitter David Ortiz doesn’t have much left in the tank. Third baseman Mike Lowell can still hit, but a hip injury has slowed him considerably. Their lineup is getting old, and has players on the decline, so a young fresh face could do wonders for their wherewithal, especially if he succeeds as the Marlins once believed he could.

Boston seems keen on re-signing left-fielder Jason Bay, who, despite striking out nearly a third of the time last season, put up huge numbers with the team. This would be a smart move, and would allow the Red Sox to work Hermida into the system, give him some spot starts, see what he’s made of, and then give him the starting job in right-field once J.D. Drew’s contract runs out after the 2011 season.

Hermida welcomed the change in scenery:

“The change of scenery will be good for me,” he said. “Boston has a lot of older guys who can teach me about the game and we can talk hitting. I know Mike Lowell pretty well and I played with Josh (Beckett) a little. This is a great thing for me.”

“I feel rejuvenated. I had a feeling I’d be traded and going to Boston is better than I could have expected.”

The Red Sox acquired him on a whim, taking a risk that this “can’t miss” prospect that the Marlins were tired of waiting on turns into something. Having this optimism is a good start for the kid. Boston may have just found a diamond in the rough.

Here is a smaller version of a very large graphic that is a flowchart of the Pirates’ roster genealogy.  All the significant players on the 40 man roster are covered here, and how they came to the Pirates.  Click on the image to enlarge (some browsers will handle this better than others, excuse the graphic sizing ineptitude.

Before clicking through, can you name the Pirate player on their 40 man roster whose trade lineage goes back to both John Smiley and Al Martin?  Enjoy…

For Theo, not myself.

This is the time of year where a MLB GM makes or breaks his rep.  For Theo Epstein, he has proven that he is not afraid to make a deal that he believes will make his team better.

From trading away Nomar in ‘04(you remember that one right?  The one everyone hated till October), to the Eric Gagne deal in ‘07 that everyone loved and didn’t quite work out that well.  He’s had his strikeouts and his home runs, but he ain’t afraid to pull the trigger.

That is why I love these next two days.  With the trade deadline rapidly approaching(Friday @4pm) the Sox find themselves knee deep in the rumor pool.  They apparently are in on Doc Halladay, Victor Martinez, and Adrian Gonzalez. 

He'll look good in a Sox uni, won't he?

Me?   I want Doc, screw the sluggers.  The bats will come around.  A rotation of Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Wake and Smoltz/Penny fighting for the fifth spot is pretty damn good.  In fact, I’d trade Buchholz, Bowden, another prospect and Jed Lowrie for the workhorse and SS Marco Scutaro.  It can solve both needs in one fell swoop.

It is about winning now.  The Sox still have a deep system and this trade will not hurt them.  The only caveat is, they gotta sign Halladay and Beckett(both FA the same year.)  That would make this rotation nasty for the next five years.  Of course if they can’t sign him, two draft picks will be coming there way(same w/Scutaro after this year.)

Time to take calculated risks.  Don’t fall in love with an unknown.  We know what Halladay brings to the table.  Go with the sure thing.  ‘04 and ‘07 were great, but it only made me thirsty for more success.  I have enough faith in the brass to re-stock the farm.

Lets hope by 4:00 Friday afternoon that the landscape of the AL East has shifted dramatically toward the Nation and the Fens.

-Jason-

Phillies get Cliff Lee, Pirates trade big players, and what about Roy Halladay?

The big news was that the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Cliff Lee from the Cleveland Indians today. Yahoo Sports has a breakdown of the trade here. This is a good move for the Phillies because they did not submit to the huge

Cliff Lee was traded to the Phillies

asking price of the Blue Jays and still get a front line pitcher in Cliff Lee. The Phillies gave up some young talent but did not have to trade the key names that were bounced around in the Halladay trade and essentially got what they were looking for, but the next question is what does this mean for Roy Halladay.

The latest news on Roy Halladay is that it is quiet in the Blue Jay front office. Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciard has stated that they need an offer to

Is Halladay staying in Toronto?

“wow them” to make a trade at this point and with all that happened with the Phillies I think it is very clear that the Blue Jays are asking for just too much. There are still some teams in the hunt like the Boston Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers and with the deadline looming the evil empire, New York Yankees have let it be known that they are interested. This may get interesting so stay tuned.

How tough is it to be a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates? If you’re a Pirates fan my hat goes off to you. This year the Pirates have dumped every player that have that has any talent for a group of youngsters. Earlier in the year it was Nate McClouth, then Adam LaRoache, and today it was Jack Wilson and Ian Snell. Today the Pirates traded both players to the Mariners for you guessed it,

Pittsburgh seems to be trading all of their best players

another group of young players. Hopefully these players grow up to be major talents, but that is when it seems like the Pirates trade their best players. Pittsburgh is when of the best sports towns in the US and it’s a shame to see their fan base go through this. Hang in there Pittsburgh. Oh by the way, it was just reported that Freddy Sanchez was traded to the Giants for just one minor league player that will be named later. The good news is kick off is right around the corner, go Steelers!

The trade rumor bonanza. That’s what I call the final week before the non-waiver trade deadline.

It’s heating up.

In the last couple of hours, Matt Holliday was traded and Ray Halladay was rumored to be traded about six times.

Here were some items I heard and read today:

1. “Phillies are close to getting Halladay. Expect an announcement within the 24 hours.”
2. “Source has told they have seen #32 in the Phillies locker room. Can anyone confirm?”
3. “Nothing is close yet.”
4. Buster Olney is reporting the Blue Jays are considering P Kyle Drabek, C Lou Marson, ss Jason Donald and OF Michael Taylor for Halladay.

Here’s my response:

1. Until there is a deal struck, stop clogging my inbox. In this day and age and the way technology moves, I personally do not care who is first with the information. So telling me something will happen eventually is like telling me the sun is going to set tonight. I appreciate the heads up.

            However, I feel it’s better to have quality reporting covering all the facts and getting as many clean, on-the-            record sources possible for when things do go down, so your readers will best the best informed.

1. Anyone who goes by the Phillies clubhouse has seen the #32. It’s retired, in a glass case, hanging on the wall. Your source sucks or is just playing games. Either way, your research should have showed that the Phillies retired the number for Steve Carlton.
2. Oh, so you’re saying the sun will come up tomorrow too? Great.
3. Here’s someone actually putting his name on the rumor. In addition, this offer has been thrown around by many, many media outlets as a possible deal over the last week.

Personally, if I am the Blue Jays, I don’t know what I’m waiting on.

This now leads to my favorite part of reporting news items. When reporting something has occurred (I’m not talking to beat writers, columnists and those employed by reputable news companies) state your source.

You will never read items on Girls of Summer without a proper source credited. I didn’t get the information on my own and I know the people who did had to work hard for it.

Don’t pretend as though you found out from the clubbie who holds the door for the media as they walk into the locker room after the game.

Enjoy your week.

-Sooz

I just have to stay on this bit for another day.  Either the Nationals’ front office thinks their fan base is stupid enough to completely forget what they wrote about Guzman just last week, or they are shamelessly plugging him for the All-Star game to pump up his trade value.  Either situation is just silly.  A quick comparison of 2 recent items on their website are copied below.  I can’t take credit for my call-out of this article because I don’t have enough readers on here, but Incredibly, the Nats have since pulled this commentary from July 1 from their website.  I mean, come on guys, this is ridiculous!  One day you hate the guy, then the next you think he’s an All-Star!  And to go so low as to pull it off your website (see my July 2 blog post for complete details), that’s just pretty underhanded.

From July 1:

“[Rizzo] is looking for a starting shortstop. The Nationals feel that Cristian Guzman, who is on the trading block, has lost a few steps with his glove.”

From July 7:

Nationals believe Guzman is an All-Star

When the Nationals face the Rockies on Tuesday in the middle game of their three-game series, it will be Day 2 of the Cristian Guzman 2009 All-Star Game Sprint Final Vote watch.  Guzman is a two-time All-Star who was selected last season with the Nationals and in 2001 with the Twins.  Zimmerman and manager Manny Acta said Sunday that Guzman deserved to go to St. Louis.  Acta reiterated that stance Monday.

“He’s been very consistent from Day 1,” Acta said. “He’s hit over .300 this whole season, he plays every day, he has been healthy and he’s been good to our club.”

Guzman is having one of his better seasons, as he’s 12th in the NL in hitting at .314 with three home runs and 21 RBIs. He has 31 multihit games, which is tied for second in the NL.

With the depth the Red Sox have at starting pitcher, you’ve got to wonder if Brad Penny will be trade bait at any point during this season.

Buster Olney broached the subject on Monday when he said:

Something to watch: Boston’s pitching surplus might lead to an early-season trade. Clay Buchholz has been absolutely dominant in the minors so far this year, and very soon, Daisuke Matsuzaka will return to the big leagues.

Eventually, it figures that Justin Masterson will go back to the Boston bullpen, and that will create the spot in the rotation for Matsuzaka. If the Red Sox want to create another for Buchholz, they would always have the option of taking offers for a veteran pitcher who has had quality starts in four of his six outings. That guy is Brad Penny, who might be a nice fit for a team like the Milwaukee Brewers or the Mets. That’s all speculation at this point.

This isn’t me beating the drum to get Penny run out of Boston, not in the least. I like Penny a lot, I think he’s got a great arm and I’ve been very surprised at his fastball command so far. I think that there’s a pretty good chance that if he sticks with the Red Sox until the All Star break, he’ll have around 10 wins by then and have a lot of value.

If that is the case- if the Red Sox can get a player of at least George Kottaras quality, just like they did a few summers ago when they traded away David Wells, they would be crazy not to.

I know, people will inevitably say that the last time the team said they had too much depth, they ended up trading Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena, and we all know how that went, but this is a different situation.

At that time, the Red Sox had seven to eight viable starters. Now the Red Sox have nine to ten, depending on if you count Junichi Tazawa (off to a 4-2 start with a 2.82 ERA with 35 K’s in 38.1 innings pitched).

At the same time, the major league club clearly has a depth problem in the middle infield with Jed Lowrie out for indefinitely, Dustin Pedroia nursing a sore groin, and Julio Lugo being terrible.

The Red Sox also still lack a “catcher of the future” unless they believe that Kottaras fills that role or youngsters Luis Exposito (.279/.317/.386 start) or Mark Wagner (currently rehabbing from a hamstring injury) are about to show sudden development. Kottaras’ .154/.258/.231 start would seem to indicate that he isn’t ready, but he has the very difficult job of playing little more than once every fifth day, and clearly his sample size in the majors is not big enough to draw much meaningful information from.

Here’s hoping that Penny keeps going out there and putting up solid quality starts, so he can get that “reliable veteran” status back, and really increase his trade value. One could imagine teams like the Mets and Brewers being very interested.

Sunday night marks the start of the MLB 2209. Here’s a few baseball trivia questions to start the season. Answers are provided below.

(1) Baseball has had its share of bad trades. Match the trade with the Group A and Group B players.

Group A
Larry Anderson, Doyle Alexander, Ernie Brolio, Cash, Frank Duffy, Ivan DeJesus, Bris Lord, Milt Pampas, Ken Phelps, Kevin Stocker, Gary Templeton

Group B
Bobby Abreu, Jeff Bagwell, Larry Bowa & Ryne Sandberg, Lou Brock, Jay Buehner, George Foster, Joe Jackson, Frank Robinson, Babe Ruth, Ozzie Smith John Smoltz,

(2) Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance is a great Cub double play combination. Name the third baseman.

(3) Name the batter and pitcher involved the first time a black pitcher faced a black batter in MLB?

(4) Name the pitcher with the most career wins that didn’t win the Cy Young Award.

(5) Name the modern-era team that played home games at Sicks Stadium.

Bonus Question
If you get this one without references, you are good. I admit to not knowing it, but it’s worth sharing. This Cincinnati Red was a Rookie Pitcher of the Year and pitched a scoreless inning during the World Series the same year; then never pitched again in the bigs.

Answers
(1) Larry Anderson – Jeff Bagwell, Doyle Alexander – John Smoltz, Ernie Brolio – Lou Brock, Cash – Babe Ruth, Frank Duffy – George Foster, Ivan DeJesus – Bowa & Sandberg, Bris Lord – Joe Jackson, Milt Pampas – Frank Robinson, Ken Phelps – Jay Beuhner, Kevin Stoker – Bobby Abreu, Gary Templeton – Ozzie Smith

(2) Tinker to Evers to Chance and Harry Steinfelt

(3) Don Newcombe pitched to Hank Thompson

(5) Cy Young (511 wins) never won his own award.

Bonus – Ken Hunt (1961)

(4) A salute to the Seattle Pilots and Sicks Stadium

Tokyo! I love Tokyo! I believe my stay with the Tigers will be fun!

Manny Ramirez was involved in a

I will win World Serie for Dodger

shocking trade with The Tokyo Giants early today.

WBC winning Japanese manager has asked to be traded to the Dodgers to manage the 2009 Season. Due to his super managing skills, The Dodgers have agreed to dish Manny off to Tokyo so that they could get the best Manager in the world.

Manny Commented  briefly:

I hear the okonomiaki is great in Osaka but better in Hiroshima.

The Giants trying to save face immediately shipped Manny off to Hiroshima in exchange for two unproven players from the Dominican Republic.

Hara manager is scheduled to land in LAX today with a heroes welcome banner attached to his plane reading…

All sorts of speculation has been made the last few days about who will start in the corner outfield spots, first base and second base. Spring performance and injuries will cause most of this to be resolved as spring training rolls on. We can only hope that a dearth of injuries and a strong performance from the second base candidates and also Nick Johnson make these decisions tough ones. Right now you can pencil in Zimmerman, Flores, Dunn, Guzman and Milledge as starters, barring injury. If Johnson has a very strong spring, he will either be traded or will start at first base. I think the Nats will do all they can to trade him so that Dunn can play first and it will then be easier to sort out the corner outfield spots. If he is healthy, performs well, and they can’t trade him, then that leaves Dunn in the outfield, and a huge glut of outfielders vying for the final starting spot. If several of them have a strong spring, look for at least one of them to get traded.

Why would someone want one of the Nats’ excess outfielders? A straight salary move. If a team can dump a $5 million salary and start a similarly-talented player who is making $500,000, they will be eager to do it. The Nationals would be happy to get some prospects or draft picks for one of them. Conversely, when these types of moves cause some established veterans to hit the market this spring, there may be someone of interest to the Nationals, provided they would sign for a lower salary so that they can keep playing.

Don’t be a fool. Take the money and play.

Stop listening to Scott Boras and listen to me. You are getting old. You are coming off the worst season of your life. You are the last man I want standing at the plate in a clutch situation. Yet, you are revered by your teammates, adored by your fans, and you get to wear that nifty C on your uniform. Teams just don’t give those away. You are not going to find a sweeter deal anywhere else.

In truth, my reasons for wanting you to return are purely selfish – Jarrod Saltalamacchia is simply too hard to pronounce. Don’t leave us Sox fans high and dry and forced to cheer for a dude with a last name that is impossible to shorten. Think about it. The pitchers need you, and us fans really need you. Picture folks having to cheer for a dude with that last name after imbibing a few beers – not pretty. I am heading to spring training in March and I expect you to be there.

See you in uniform,

Kristen

CC: Tito, Theo, John Henry

Jim Bates - Seattle Times

Mariners trade
RP J.J. Putz (Mets)
RP Sean Green (Mets)
OF Jeremy Reed (Mets)
IF Luis Valbuena (Indians)

Mariners get
OF Endy Chavez
OF Franklin Gutierrez
RP Aaron Heilman
+4 minor leaguers that I won’t bother to name

The Optimist’s View
The Mariners traded a junk second baseman, two relievers, and an outfielder without any above-average qualities for seven players, including an outfielder (Gutierrez) in his prime with serious potential. Heilman soured in New York, but that might have more to do with the New York atmosphere than his abilities as a pitcher. He certainly replaces Green, who really faltered in the second half of last season (albeit due to overuse). Chavez provides defense and a reliable, speedy veteran at the fourth outfielder position. He’ll be the pinch-runner if Willie Bloomquist goes elsewhere.

The most important overall point is that any trade dealing away Putz was a win for the Mariners. In the last few years, analysts have finally begun to realize what I’ve been saying all along: relief pitchers don’t matter. Closers go from good to bad within a season. Putz moved from a setup role to the closer’s job, performed admirably, and within two years his value skyrocketed. The GMZ sold high. Remember the saga of Francisco Cordero? He had a great season with the Rangers a few years ago, signed a sweet extension, bottomed out the next season, lost his closer’s job and eventually got traded to the Brewers, where he had a resurgence for a season and then faltered again. Closers are like mediocre quarterbacks in the NFL – they’re always someone just slightly worse waiting to take their job.

The Pessimist’s View
Note: this will be shorter. Try to guess what I think about this trade. We didn’t get a power bat. Green was our most effective reliever all last season. This is about all I have – though the power bat issue is a big one. Read “The Big Picture” for more on that.

The Big Picture
Good teams retool through trades and their farm system. I make that statement without years of statistical analysis, but we can all note that grandiose free agent signings, like spending $161 million for a guy who isn’t totally sure he wants to be in New York, or $37 million on a closer, don’t make the same impact as solid all-around organizations. Note the Tampa Bay Rays. Trades and farm system. Their early strategy of free agent signings (remember Fred McGriff, Jose Canseco and Wade Boggs?) didn’t exactly pan out.

Plus, Mariners fans needed a trade. They needed a trade after the Erik Bedard deal, the only notable deal of Bill Bavasi’s tenure. Bavasi seemed content to take the easy route: sign free agents rather than risk public opinion in a trade. Then he sent five players for one in the Bedard deal. You can’t trade that way. This is a refreshing change, I must say.

Finally, the GMZ probably isn’t done. Maybe this precedes another trade, involving either Beltre or Ichiro (please). Gutierrez has some power – he might hit 15-20 home runs projected over 450-550 at-bats, but he’s not quite the same answer as Matt Joyce of the Tigers would’ve been. Russell Branyan, if his production is anything like last year’s showing in limited at-bats, could be the answer. Remember that the Mariners played with ghosts as first base and catcher for nearly all of last season. ANYTHING is an upgrade.

With the Baseball winter meetings in full swing for another couple of days and the rumor mill constantly spitting out different scenarios, the Hot Stove season is finally warming up.  Most of you know the big names out there.  CC Sabathia goin to the Yanks or a Cali team, Frankie Rodriguez aka K-Rod heading to the Mets and Mark Texeira heading to about five different teams.  The front-runner seems to be the Red Sox.  I would love this player on the Old Town Team.  A switch-hitting, gold-glove 1st baseman with great power and one of the best eyes at the plate in the game.  He is the IDEAL Epsteinesque player.  The major rub though is that they will have a glut of 1st base/dh/3rd base players.  Youk isn’t going anywhere.  I think Lowell will be tough to trade.  That leaves one player:  David “Big Papi” Ortiz.

First off, I love what Papi has done for this organization and the fan base.  He and Manny made one of the greatest duos in MLB history.  If we have learned anything from Theo is that he will make a trade, regardless of player popularity as long as it makes the team better.  He has traded Nomar and Manny.  He has let Damon, Pedro, and Lowe go after they led the team to victory in ‘04.  He is a shrewd GM and that’s what makes him great. 

There could be a fairly large market for Ortiz.  I would have to think that a NL team may not be interested, but you never know.  I think the Angels, after losing Texeria, will be interested.  The Twins could also be a player.  Maybe Kansas City as well, but that is a stretch.  The ideal fit would be Tampa Bay, but the Sox can’t trade him in the division.  In return the Sox have to get a minimum of a young starter like Ervin Santana from the Angels or Kevin Slowey or Glen Perkins from the Twins.  Zach Greinke would have to be the chip from the Royals.  Also, the Sox would need either a young catcher like Napoli from the Angels or a young outfielder like Delmin Young from the Twins.  All these deals may also need a low-level prospect to complete them.

A deal like this would then free up a Buchholz for a catcher like Saltalamacchia or Teagarden from the Rangers.  Don’t look at the past fans and let your feelings get in the way.  Think about what is best for the team in the long run.  Ortiz will always have a place along side Williams and Yaz in Red Sox lore, but now may be the time to say goodbye.  Just a thought.

Edgar  Renteria will not be the tiger shortstop next season.   He singed a two-year 18.5 million dollar contract with the Giants.  Edgar Renteria has played his memorable part of his 13 seasons in the NL.  In 1997 he won a World Series with the Florida Marlins.  He also is a 5 time all-star in the NL.  Edgar Renteria will replace the 11-time gold golve short stop Omar Vizquel. Edgear Renteriasaid he wanted to go where people want him to go and that is the Giants. The Tigers did not resign Renteria so he took the offer by the Giants. The Giants could use a player like Renteria. He plays his best in the NL and AT@T Park would be a good home.

Holliday? An Oakland Athletic? Beane's trade for Colorado's slugger was befuddling to say the least.

Throughout Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane’s tenure with the team, he had been known to trade players in their respective primes to acquire younger talent. Beane, surprisingly, went away from that philosophy. Doing so in a perplexing, but big way. He struck a deal for Rockies slugger Matt Holliday, tentatively trading closer Huston Street, outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, and starting pitcher Greg Smith.

This is an odd trade to make, considering that Holliday has just one season remaining on his current contract. By trading three highly touted players, Beane is trying, desperately, to build a “win now” team. They better win now, seeing as this is most likely a one-year rental of Holliday.

I would have put all 29 other General Managers ahead of Beane with respects of acquiring such a player of Holliday’s caliber. In this risky move, Beane gave up way too much. It would be seen as a better trade if Holliday had multiple years left on his contract, but as it is, it doesn’t make sense. Oakland finished 75-86 (24 1/2 games behind the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim), but Beane hopes, by making this bold move, the A’s will contend for the American League West title. Even with Holliday, I don’t see this happening, considering that the three players they traded were big parts of their team this past season.

In a previous article that I wrote, I marveled at the fact the Beane had built a winner in the A’s by relying on young talent (talent that was either home-grown or acquired via trade). In studying Beane tactics as General Manager, I found it remarkable that he was so adamant in counting on prospects to assemble a contending team. What made him such a genius is not that he did this, but that it worked. Though this past season was a tumultuous one, it should have been taken in stride by Beane because of his rebuilding effort. But, clearly it was not.

Huston Street, the presumptive centerpiece of the deal, has been hampered by injuries throughout his career, but when healthy he is a very good closer. Street is just 25 and has already racked up 94 saves and a 2.88 ERA. He has blown 27 saves (giving him a 77% save percentage; not great), a downside of course, but his potential is what the Rockies are banking on. Because their previous closer Brian Fuentes gone via free agency, and their because of their apparent lack of confidence in Manny Corpas (who was their closer in 2007), Street is in line to take over the reigns. This will come to fruition unless they are inclined to now trade him, which they might do.

Ironically, Carlos Gonzalez was traded as well by Beane. Gonzalez, a 23 year old center fielder, was acquired prior to this past season when Beane traded then-ace Dan Haren. Now, Gonzalez will find yet another home. A home that he may like. He is seen by scouts as a “five-tool” player (meaning he has all the intangibles), and with power, he could flourish in Colorado’s altitude.

Greg Smith (who was also acquired in the Dan Haren deal with Gonzalez), the third player included, had a very solid year in 2008. A year that isn’t shown in his abysmal record. He went 7-16, but mustered a respectable 4.16 ERA during his 190 innings pitched. He will be placed in an already very young and talented rotation, and could excel as a the Rockies third or fourth starter.

It’s hard to believe that Beane would trade such a significant amount of talent for a one-year rental. What makes it even more befuddling it that Scott Boras, Holliday’s agent, does not like negotiating contracts while his client in living out a current deal (meaning he likes to have teams battle to be the highest bidding in free agency). The Oakland Athletics ranked 28th in payroll with just a measly $47 million dollars, but have the chance to increase that total to nearly $80 million, according to Foxsports.com’s Ken Rosenthal. Because of this, the A’s may have a chance to retain Holliday in the free agent market following the 2009 season. Though this, and the trade itself may seem plausible, I don’t quite understand Beane’s logic.

Meanwhile, this is a tremendous move by the Rockies. To acquire their center fielder, close (if they don’t trade Street), and potential ace of the future is an absolute steal. There was no doubt they would trade Holliday, but to get as much as they did in return is astounding.

It is nearly as astounding that Beane would make this move.

It’s no secret the Yankees need to rebuild. But let’s not complicate matters.

Hey, this isn’t rocket science. It’s baseball. And more than anything, the Yankees need to get pitching and to get younger, faster and more athletic.

For years now, the Yankees have tried to get away with make-shift pitching staffs and band-aid remedies.

Old broken down aces like Randy Johnson, Rocket Redux (Roger Clemens II), and Kevin Brown. Over-rated youngsters like Javier Vazquez, Jeff Weaver and the double zero twins, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And never has-beens Darrell Rasner, Jaret Wright and Kei Igawa. Need we mention Karl Pavano.

And they’ve been bogged down by DH-type slowpokes, guys like Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and Wilson Betemit of recent vintage.

Maybe the Bombers need  a history lesson.

Yankees On the Move
In 1975, New York’s American League entry missed the playoffs for the 11th straight season.  They were a decent team, hung in the pennant race until the dog days, wound up third behind the Red Sox and Orioles.

They Yankees were about to move out of Shea Stadium, their home away from home for two years, into a refurbished Yankee Stadium.

They were desperate for a jump-start, hungry to get back to the playoffs. Enter general manager Gabe Paul, pictured above.

With two brilliant trades, Paul built the foundation for a team that would win an American League pennant in 1976 and the World Series the following two years. Those two deals brought the Yankees starting pitching and youth and speed, and helped fill holes in center field and  second base.

In one deal, the Yankees traded a hobbled Bobby Bonds to California for pitcher Ed Figueroa and center-fielder Mickey Rivers, right. The other trade brought Willie Randolph, Dock Ellis and Ken Brett to the Bronx in exchange for Doc Medich, who was shipped to Pittsburgh.

Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father,  would play for six more years with six teams and never make the playoffs again. He did manage 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases in his one year in pinstripes after being acquired in exchange for Bobby Murcer. Bonds had his fourth and final 30-30 year in 1977 with the Angels, but was clearly on the downhill side of his career when the Yanks sent him out West..

Rivers turned out to be the catalyst, the center fielder and lead-off hitter on those championship Yankee teams of the late ’70s before being traded to Texas for, among others, Oscar Gamble. Mick the Quick hit .312 with 43 stolen bases and finished third in the AL MVP race, and followed that up with a .326 season in 1977.

55 Wins in Three Years for Figgy
Figueroa was 19-10, 16-11 and 20-9 in his first three seasons in New York, a mainstay with 55 wins on a staff that won three straight pennants, before an arm injury stalled his career in 1979.

Medich, whose best year with the Yanks was 19-15 in 1974, never approached those standards with the Pirates and later Texas. He finished with a 124-105 lifetime record and eventually left baseball to become a medical doctor.

Another doc, Dock Ellis, never did go the med school, but he did win 17 games for the Yankees in 1976 while losing only eight. He was traded to the A’s early in the following season for Mike Torrez, who won two games for the Yankees in the 1977 World Series. Torrez signed as a free agent with the Red Sox in 1978, and is perhaps best known as the pitcher who gave up a three-run homer to Bucky Dent in a 1978 play-in loss to the Yankees.

Ken Brett, George’s brother, was quickly  traded to the White Sox one month into the season, along with Rich Coggins, for Carlos May, who helped the Yankees win the AL pennant in 1976.

And Willie Randolph, a Brooklyn native, became a fixture at second base for the Yankees for 13 seasons and one of the most popular Yankees of recent vintage. With the exception of Hall of  Famer Tony Lazzeri, Randolph, right, arguably the best second baseman in Yankee history.

Those weren’t the only big deals for Paul, who also traded for Graig Nettles, Chris Chambliss, Dick Tidrow, Lou Piniella and Bucky Dent, all who contributed mightily to the Yankees last 70s run.

Gabe Paul was gone following the 1977 season, unable to deal with the daily turmoil of George Steinbrenner and Billy Martin, but the creativity he exhibited in 1976 with these two trades helped turn a proud franchise around.

Brian Cashman needs to show some of that same kind of guts and guile if the Yankees are to return to the playoffs next year.

It will take more than signing overpriced superstars to huge free-agent contracts to bring these Yankees back. It will take innovation and ingenuity and grit, traits the Yankees have been lacking lately.

Learn from the Gospel of  (Gabe) Paul, aka The Trader.