Tags » Bayesian

Polls: Why sample size matters

The people of Scotland are currently deciding in an upcoming “Yes-No” referendum (this Thursday!) whether to leave the British Union and become an independent nation. As is typical around times of heightened political interest, media outlets are awash with polls attempting to predict the outcome.   1,252 more words


Idea: Bayesian Performance Estimation

I had an idea that I’m pretty sure will work, but I’m not sure what I’d do with it – it involves using Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that a player is within a certain skill bucket.  455 more words


The dp-means algorithm of Kulis and Jordan in R and Python

dp-means algorithm. Think k-means but with the number of clusters calculated.

By John Myles White, in R. (Github link off that page.)

By… 9 more words


Fun with (Extended Kalman) Filters


An extended Kalman filter in Haskell using type level literals and automatic differentiation to provide some guarantees of correctness.

Population Growth

Suppose we wish to model population growth of bees via the… 1,226 more words


singingbanana does "The Lorenz Machine"

On the power of mathematics, and why 55:45 versus 50:50 matters.


"The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian"

Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. 33 more words


UNDERC Diary 2014: Day 1

Guess what time it is, boys and girls? That’s right! it’s…


Well, I finally made it back to the land of the fish fry and the pasty. 289 more words

Field Research