Michael McCaskey, owner of the Chicago Bears, has a lifetime of experience working with Ethiopians… From VOA. Full story

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Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index, which now tracks 186 companies and four mutual funds on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, lost 0.75 percent or 4.21 points Friday induced by a bearish global market.

The index finished at 555.84 as trade volume dropped by 20 percent over Thursday. More than 53.2 million shares worth nearly VND2.67 trillion (US$149.4 million) changed hands.

Shares zigzagged several times during the session and most performed well until the first half before investors rushed to dump stocks. Among the index members, declines outnumbered gains by 127 to 38 and 21 shares were unchanged. Most blue-chips closed down.

Minh Phu Seafood Joint Stock Co. in the Mekong Delta Ca Mau Province was the biggest loser November 20, followed by Taya (Vietnam) Electric Wire and Cable Joint Stock Co. (TYA) in Dong Nai Province neighboring the city and the city-based Thanh Cong Textile Garment Investment Trading Joint Stock Co. (TCM).

The top three active stocks in volume saw Saigon Securities Inc. (SSI) top the list with more than 2.73 million shares traded on the city bourse. The country’s largest brokerage based in HCM City slid 1.12 percent to VND88,500.

Petrovietnam Transportation Corp. (PVT) in HCM City, which gained 4.89 percent to VND19,300, was next having more than 2.42 million shares traded, followed by Saigon Commercial Bank or Sacombank (STB) which saw 1.94 million shares change hands at VND27,200, down 0.73 percent over Thursday.

After the bell, petrol stocks saw robust growth as An Pha SG Petrol Joint Stock Co. (ASP), the bourse’s biggest listed liquefied petroleum gas importer and trader, rose 4.65 percent to VND17,200. The company has raised VND100 billion ($5.6 million) by selling 1 million five-year convertible bonds through private placement, it said in a statement filed on the exchange website Thursday.

Dong Phu Rubber Joint Stock Co. (DPR), Vietnam’s third-largest listed producer, dropped 0.83 percent to VND60,500 after reaching the highest since October 29 the day earlier. Rubber on Thursday climbed to the highest level in almost 14 months after shippers in Thailand, the world’s largest producer, raised prices to foreign buyers as heavy rain curbed output.

Tan Tao Investment Industry Corp. (ITA) lost 2.56 percent to VND42,900. The city-based company is going to list an extra 2.1 million shares on the exchange, according to a statement filed on the exchange website Friday.

Hanoi’s HNX-Index also stayed in the red, falling to 184.79, down 0.89 points or 0.48 percent. Around 24.4 million shares worth VND 986 billion changed hands.

UP-CoM index didn’t perform any better tumbling 1.56 percent or 1.02 points to 64.44. A total of 62,230 shares were traded at VND809.5 million.

In the US, signs of a subdued economic recovery sent investors out of stocks Thursday and in search of safer assets like the dollar. Major indexes including the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled about 1 percent. Energy and material stocks logged the biggest losses as a jump in the dollar sent commodity prices tumbling. Meanwhile, an analyst’s downgrade of the chip industry pulled technology shares sharply lower.

As stocks fell, investors flocked to the dollar and Treasurys.

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Piata bursiera este ringul in care se confrunta in principal doua categorii: exista momente in piata valorilor mobiliare cand se spune ca domina taurii iar piata este atunci bullish, dar inevitabil datorita supraapecierii  titlurilor sau unui sector de activitate pretul acestra scade iar piata devine dominata de ursi adica bearish.

Taurii sunt reprezentati de investitorii optimisti, care considera ca valoarea unui titlu sau sector de activitate va creste in viitorul apropiat.

Ursii sunt prezenti in momentul cand titlul sau sectorul de activitate isi inverseaza trendul , adica in mod descrescator.

Puii sunt reprezentati de traderii care ,dominati de frica de a risca , investesc in cele mai sigure titluri de pe piata (bonduri de trezonerie) care nu aduc un castig mare, asemanator cu dobanzile la depozite pe termen lung. Puii evita tranzactiile speculative si nu realizeaza niciodata un castig semnificativ.

Porcii urmaresc doar tranzactiile speculative care aduc un profit cat mai mare in cel mai scurt timp. Problema acestora este ca nu isi fac o analiza tehnica necesara fiecarei tranzactii, si majoritatea investitiilor le fac in baza ponturilor si zvonurilor. Traderii profesionisti iubesc mult aceasta categorie pentru ca isi incaseaza profiturile mai ales din pierderile acestora.

O zicala din bursa ilustreaza cat se poate de bine acest tablou:

“Taurii fac bani, ursii fac bani , porcii nu sunt decat sacrificati.”

It take one day after to break the support level on 146.30. I was wrong. But it’s Ok.. the bearish trend still continue. and i just put sell order on 145.50 this morning to catch the trend and wait whether i could make profit this week.. hope so…

The support level for this new wave would be 142.75. the closest one is around 144.50 and 143.65

Have a Nice Trading

Risk Warning: FOREX Trading carry a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Any information provided does not constitute the giving of investment advice. Use at you own risk

In recent months the U.S. stock market has recovered much of the earlier losses from the financial crisis. What is more, GDP growth has been observed for the first time in a year. According to a survey this month the majority of macroeconomic forecasters believe the “Great Recession is over“!

But is the recession over? Looking beneath the two headline measures of stock market moves and GDP, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy would indicate that the recession is not over yet; with high unemployment, under-regulated and over-leveraged financial markets, uncontrolled government debt levels, a deflating U.S. dollar, and costly demographic shifts. This clearly implies bearish conditions in the US for many years to come. Many alternative commentators (see previous post) are indicating that the recession is not over yet.. indeed the worst may be yet to come!

Market capitalisation: Over the past 6 months organisations have exceeded analyst expectations for profitability and recover much of the losses in market capitalisation earlier in the year. For foreign investors any value gain in share price will be reduced to almost nothing after USD depreciation is considered. For domestic investors profitability has been achieved largely through either government stimulus or cost cutting (e.g. mass layoffs, reduced travel and favourable short term oil and raw material prices). There is little further which can be done using this approach to improving profitability without compromising future quality and capability. And as outlined below, the broader economic fundamentals remain bearish.

Financial system: Global financial system has deep flaws including an unregulated derivatives market which have not been adequately addressed. Corruption may still be a big part of U.S. Federal Reserve together with other banks and financial institutions which are “too big to fail“. Financial reforms in these areas are compromised by powerful business loby groups.

Deflation and Inflation: The U.S. is currently experiencing deflation due primarily to a massive drop in oil prices. However in years to come the U.S. now faces risk of high inflation or even hyperinflation from “printing money” to finance the massive economic stimulus and bailout programs. Further contributing to hyperinflation are skyrocketing oil and food prices. With continued global reliance on oil, with peak oil fast approaching and with carbon taxed, the oil price is likely to trend above and beyond USD100 per barrel in coming years. Food price to be effected by inter-related global issues of overpopulation, carbon taxing, global water shortages and global warming (as per causes of other recent food crisis).

Public Debt and Currency Devaluation: The Federal budget deficit for the fiscal year ending Sept 2009 was USD 1.9 trillion. The U.S. public debt is now close to USD 12 trillion and heading towards 100% of GDP. The U.S. will find difficulty fulfilling interest payments obligations of their U.S. Government Bonds with the value of the USD progressively eroding and foreign debt levels rising astronomically. Compounding this problem, the USD is likely to fall further as China diversifies out of USD (into commodities and other assets) and as other currencies (e.g. Euro and Yen) including potential new currencies strengthen (e.g. SUCRE, EAC and a unifed Gulf currency).

Householders and consumers: Where once the breakdown in the financial system was associated with a sub-prime mortgage crisis now two years later, with persistent high unemployment levels, it can be associated with record foreclosures in the prime mortgage market. Whilst there has been some improvements in housing prices in recent months they still have a long way to go before they recover the losses of the past three years. Whilst consumer confidence has also made ground it remains at low levels rarely seen in the past ten years. The bottom line is unemployment is heading towards double digit figures. It is only when this trend is curtailed that housing prices and consumer confidence can be properly be restored.

Demographics: With the baby-boomer population retiring there is increased government welfare cost burden, bearish force on the stock market due to pension fund shares being cashed out, and less income tax revenue. With a deterioration in the U.S. education system and associated poor academic performance there won’t be the competitive young adults to fill the globalised jobs of the future.

Geopolitical Influence: The combined cost of U.S. acting as global superpower in Iraq and Afghanistan accumulates (see ‘CostofWar‘). The U.S.’s financial capacity to wage wars and determine the terms of trade in other countries is significantly diminished. China has turned the financial disaster into a strategic econopolitical advantage by buying up cheap assets. Now with not only massive domestic savings and the power to influence US terms of trade (though being the biggest holder of U.S. government bonds), China now has massive energy and resource investments in the Middle East, Africa, Australia and throughout the world. China has replaced U.S. as a world empire.

In conclusion, the present fundamentals of high public debt and unemployment combined with the future high probability of high inflation, high welfare/social security cost burden and reduced geopolitical influence mean that it may be many years before the U.S. returns to sustained growth.

Wall Street – One Way

Market To Move sideways : Expert

After last week’s correction, witnessing a dip of 492 points, market experts said this week might continue to see sideway movements with slight downward bias.

They opined it was basically the momentum play which took the markets beyond 17,000 points and therefore downside movement was expected.

They maintained that currently the markets are over stretched and any rise in the short-term is unlikely.

They ruled out that Reliance’s bonus shares or Infosys’s better than expected earnings will stoke the markets with positive sentiments this week.

In the previous week, CNX Nifty declined 138.2 points or 2.72 per cent on a weekly basis to close at 4,945.20 last Friday against last week’s close of 5,083.40.

Similarly, Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, slipped below 17,000 mark to close the week at 16,642.66, down 2.87 per cent.

Brokers pointed out that this week, Nifty may bottom out at 4,800 levels. It should not come below this as fundamentals of the country are intact.

Last week, indices which ended in the green include consumer durables, fast moving consumer goods, health care, metals and power.

On the other hand, auto, bankex, capital goods, IT, oil & gas and realty index closed in the red.

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals, said,

“Markets are facing resistance. It is difficult to expect sectors to outperform.  Though some stocks could do well.  But it seems, market is not in a mood to hear any good news.”

This week, experts are betting big on telecom, infrastructure, consumer durables and banking space.

They held bearish stand on sectors like IT and auto.

Experts said that from this week onwards, corporate earning seasons will start which market will closely watch for.

Gold has set a new record high above $1,040/oz and the move up to this level does not look over extended yet.

• Dollar weakness on the back of a rise in interest rates in Australia promoted the rally, but there have been other developments too.

• Fabrication demand is very poor and these higher prices will not help, but there must be considerable pent up demand.

• Investor interest is strong at the fund level and with ETF holders.

• All looks bullish, but be wary in case equities start to correct, in which case precious metals are likely to suffer too – initially.

Gold breaks out of its consolidation pattern and rallies to new record highs.

Trading in early September saw Gold prices break higher out of the consolidation pattern that had contained prices for most of June, July and August. Having broken higher prices accelerated up to the high $990’s/oz, paused and then extended gains to $1,024.25/oz, some $8/oz below the highs seen in March 2008 at $1,032.50/oz. The market then consolidated either side of $1,000/oz, before pushing higher to set new record highs at $1,043.80/oz. In recent weeks, sentiment across the broader markets does seem to have taken a turn for the worse as some important economic data has disappointed the market and that might well trigger a much awaited correction in equities. In the past, Gold prices have suffered during the early part of any broad based risk reduction sell-off and it may well do so again. That said, generally this time around money coming out of equities may well move more quickly into the likes of Gold, especially with the dollar under further pressure following the rise in interest rates in Australia.

Geopolitical risks have risen

Iran’s nuclear ambitions have come back into focus with the revelation of a second nuclear plant. With US patience running thin, the market is fearful of a rise in geopolitical tension. The possibility of tough sanctions may have prompted a pick- up in Gold purchases in the Middle East in case overseas bank assets are frozen.

Monthly Technical:

Having set new record highs Gold prices are in uncharted waters. The next level to overcome is the $1,050/oz level, but forecast are likely to be looking at numbers such as $1,250/oz and $1,500/oz. Considering the break into new high ground, prices do not look too extended above the uptrend line, or indeed the 100 week moving average. At the previous peak at $1,032.50/oz prices were $333 above the average, at the $1006/oz peak they were $195 above and now prices are $149 above the average. That’s an average distance of $225/oz which could see this peak rise up towards $1,120/oz. More to the point the fact a new high has been set suggests the uptrend is intact.

Monthly Summary:

Having just set new highs it is difficult to say anything other than that Gold is looking bullish and not overbought. Fabrication demand is weak and will be even weaker now and that puts more emphasis on investors. However, our big picture outlook remains bullish for Gold. We would not be surprised to see corrections get underway in equities and industrial metals and that is likely to rub off negatively for the precious metals as a risk reduction is likely to hit all markets. Never-the- less, if the reflex move is to sell Gold we feel the secondary reaction will be for more investors to look to Gold to provide a safe haven.

After several months studying the GBP/JPY trend and i trade as intraday trader. I think this is the right time for me to be an investor.

By using some famous technical indicators and the understanding of economic indicators, seems that in the long term GBP/JPY will still have bearish trend until the end of this year and could touch 120.00.

But today i won’t put any positions as for today, coz the trend will be bullish as a correction of previous trend.

the nearest support level is still 140.80 and 139.75 while the resistances are around 143.25 and 144.55

Risk Warning: FOREX Trading carry a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Any information provided does not constitute the giving of investment advice. Use at you own risk.

Market Commentary

Gold opened at 987.00/988.00 in New York. Better than expected home price data provided a lift to equities and commodities in general, taking gold up to 993.00/994.00 in early trade. Weaker then expected consumer confidence knocked us back down to the 988.00 after which we saw a slow grind higher for most of the morning. We continued the move higher in the afternoon, trading up to 996.00/997.00 as the dollar lost ground and equities recovered. We closed the day at 993.00/994.00.

Technical Commentary
Gold has moved higher today to the current 993. This is the first up day following 4 down days that brought the unit from 1019 to 986 on the correction. The 990 level remains our technical line in the sand on a close basis. That level has held on a close since we broke higher on Sept 2/3. We remain bullish while 990 holds looking for another move back to 1024. A close below 990 will turn the focus back to the 960/970 area.

Technical Analysis

Pivot – USD991.57

Primary Support (Buy) – USD986.23

*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.

Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD998.13

*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.

Market Commentary
Gold opened at 992.00/993.00 in New York. Short covering in front of this morning’s economic data helped the metal rally to an intraday high of 996.50/997.50. However much weaker than expected durable goods caused equity markets to retreat and gold followed. The metal was quickly swept lower, triggering stops, reaching a low of 984.00/985.00. Gold recovered marginally from its lows, trading erratically in a range, finding resistance near 993.00. It became range bound as the session unwound, finally settling at 989.75/990.75.

Technical Commentary
Gold—The broader gold uptrend remains in tact, however shorter term technicals are warning of further downside for the metal. The MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal; and the candle pattern is warning of further downside. However, gold has yet to even test its 50 or 100-day moving average (967.33 and 953.30, respectively) and these levels should serve as support.

Technical Analysis

Pivot – USD998.22

Primary Support (Buy) – USD977.46

*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.

Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD1,011.15

*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.

Topik kali ini menyangkut pertempuran antara spekulator dan Commercial Traders (CT) di arena emas. Salah satu indikator yang Ekonomi Orang Waras dan Investasi (EOWI) gunakan untuk menganalisa arah gerakan emas adalah Commitment Of Trade (COT). Data COT menunjukkan posisi para pemain di sektor emas yang dibagi-bagi menjadi: Commercial Traders (CT), Big Speculators (BS) dan Small Speculators (SS). CT kebanyakan adalah pemilik barang (emas atau perak) dengan kata lain para produser, pemilik tambang yang melakukan lindung nilai di pasar COMEX (Commodity Exchange). Suatu hal mengenai CT ialah: mereka punya barang dan bisa mengguyur pasar, kalau mau.

Seperti kita ketahui bahwa umumnya setiap tahun emas rally antara bulan Sept/Aug sampai Feb/Mar tahun berikutnya. Untuk tahun ini, rally logam mulia Sept 09 – Mar 10, punya peluang gagal, terutama kalau dilihat dari kacamata US dollar, bukan Rupiah. Mengenai emas vs mata uang lain (Euro, Pound, dsb) kita akan bahas di akhir minggu, insha Allah kalau saya sempat.

YANG BOHONG
Saya menulis artikel ini karena gatal. Saya tidak bisa melihat ada orang bohong. Tadi pagi saya menbaca di Kitco.Com mengenai opini pada produser emas tentang harga emas yang akan terus naik tahun ini. Tentu saja hal ini bertentangan dengan apa yang mereka lakukan. Dalam artikel yang berjudul: Gold Rally has Legs: Mining Industry Leaders Agree disebutkan:

This was their emphatic proclamation at the Denver Gold Group’s prestigious annual conference at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Denver. And as if on cue, gold’s performance gave plenty of credence to their bullish remarks. Having easily breached the psychologically all-important $1,000 an ounce mark the week prior to the conference, gold’s spot price continued to gather momentum. Which, of course, delighted attendees at the world’s most important annual congregation of gold mining and investment industry movers and shakers.

Saya pikir CEO Goldcorp Rob McEwen bohong, karena ada perbedaan omongan dia dengan data di lapangan.

COMMITMENT OF TRADE (COT)
Data COT menunjukkan posisi para pemain di pasar COMEX. Yang menarik dari COT ini adalah, bisa dijadikan sebagai leading indikator kemana arah larinya emas/perak. Kalau CT punya banyak posisi short, maka hal ini merupakan leading indikator untuk turunnya harga emas. Secara total antara short dan long harus sama. Untuk setiap penjual harus ada pembeli.

Karena CT biasanya juga produser, maka mereka punya kekuatan lebih dalam hal pasokan emas. Oleh sebab itu mereka biasanya mendominasi pasar. Sebagai contoh adalah untuk tahun 2005, rally emas tertahan di bulan November 2005. Harga emas turun 10%, sebelum rally berlanjut lebih kencang dari pertengahan Desember 2005 sampai bulan Maret 2006 untuk naik 20% (lihat Chart-1). Catatan, untuk data COT saya gunakan COT dari perak, bukan emas. Ini sekedar untuk membuat kontras perbedaan antara periode long & short bagi CT.

Chart 1 (klik chart untuk memperbesar)

Posisi short para CT juga terlihat pada akhir rally tahunan emas Sept 07 – Mar 08. Pada akhir rally yaitu bulan Maret 2008, CT melakukan shorting dalam jumlah yang besar (Chart-2). Pembaca bisa mengecek perjalanan harga emas selama tahun 2007-2008 sendiri dan membandingkan dengan data COT di bawah.

Chart 2 (klik chart untuk memperbesar)

Bagaimana peta COT untuk saat ini? Chart-3 menunjukkan kenaikan yang mencolok posisi net short dari CT. Oleh sebab itu…., hati-hati.

Saya tidak tahu apakah koreksi kali ini hanya dangkal seperti yang terjadi di tahun 2005 pada bulan November (Chart-1) dan selanjutnya pada bulan November 2009 rally emas akan berlanjut sampai bulan Maret 2010. Atau koreksi yang cukup dalam dan mementahkan semuanya?

Opini saya cenderung pada yang terakhir. Memang hal ini belum pernah (jarang) terjadi bahwa rally mandeg di bulan September-Oktober. Untuk tahun 2009, emas sudah naik dari level $681/oz ke $1025/oz atau 51%. Sudah cukup banyak. Secara jangka panjang, emas sudah overbought. Lagi pula, level $1000/oz sudah beberapa kali ditest, bila harga emas terlalu lama berada disekitar itu tanpa ada resolusi, para spekulator menjadi bosan dan kemudian melepas posisinya. Di saat itu tingkat kepercayaan spekulator anjlog dan koreksi tajam dan dalam bisa terjadi.

Chart 3 (klik chart untuk memperbesar)

sumber: dikutip dari EOWI

Market Commentary
Gold opened at 1015.50/1016.50 in New York. Better than expected jobless claims helped equity markets to rally and gold followed, peaking at 1019.00/1020.00. However the metal quickly became well offered and slipped off its highs. Existing home sales fell short of expectations and equities tumbled along with oil and gold. Good selling continued to drag it lower, triggering stops, and pushing it to an intraday low of 992.25/993.25. It recovered marginally from its lows and traded quietly within a range as the session unwound, closing at 997.00/998.00.

Technical Commentary
Gold took a material drop lower today to current 995. The 1019 level held today for the third day in a row so the metal was liquidated lower on the failure trade. This is the biggest down day in gold since June. We believe the 990 level is key support on a close basis as it has held since Sept 3. Intraday the unit dealt as low as 983 on Sept 10.

Technical Analysis

Pivot – USD1,001.57

Primary Support (Buy) – USD984.11

*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.

Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD1,012.31

*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.

]]> http://forextradingwebsites.wordpress.com/2009/09/13/how-a-bear-can-be-bullish-and-still-be-right/ Sun, 13 Sep 2009 13:47:37 +0000 forextradingwebsites http://forextradingwebsites.wordpress.com/2009/09/13/how-a-bear-can-be-bullish-and-still-be-right/

Bob Prechter: the only good label is an Elliott wave label…
September 8, 2009

By Nico Isaac

In recent months, Elliott Wave International President Bob Prechter has become something of a household name. In the final two days of August 2009 alone, Bob was mentioned by several news outlets from MarketWatch to the New York Times. The claim to his “fame” –

EWI was one of the only technical analysis firms to anticipate a sharp rally in U.S. stocks as they circled the drain of a 12-year low this spring, a feat made ever more exceptional considering the widespread image of Bob as being the ultimate “Big, Bad Bear.”

The lesson? Believe in the facts, not in the “widespread image.”

Bob Prechter has always said that successful forecasting should look to the current wave count (and various other technical measures) for direction. He has never permanently tied himself to the mast of definition — i.e. “bull” or “bear.”

For this reason, EWI’s team of analysts have been able to stay one step ahead of the biggest turning points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from the very start of the index’s historic 2007 reversal.

July 17, 2007 TheElliott Wave Theorist:

“Aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position now. We may be early by a couple of weeks, but the market has traced out the minimum expected rise, and that’s enough to act on.”

Soon after, as the DJIA neared its own historic Oct. 11, 2007 apex, the Oct. 9 and 10 Short Term Update amped up the urgency of its analysis and wrote:

“Odds have increased that a market high is in place. The structure, coupled with turns in the other markets, suggests a top is in place. The potential, at the least, is four a large selloff… Watch Out! The market faces a stout correction.”

Before landing at its March 10, 2008 bottom, the March 5 Short Term Update afforded respect to a bullish alternate count and wrote: “Prices should carry above the wave a high (13165) before it ends.”

At its four-month high, the March 16 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist went on high, bearish alert and wrote: The DJIA is entering “Free Fall territory.”

One week before the U.S. stock market landed at its 12-year low of March 9, our Feb. 27, 2009 Short Term Update utilized a traditional turning pattern to outline a specific time window for the onset of a major upside reversal. In STU’s own words:

“By all indication, this pattern is back on track… the turn will come on or near March 10, 2009. Anywhere in this time period may mark a turn, which will obviously be a market low.”

Once the bullish winds of change had turned, the March 16 Short Term Update wrote:

“When the market speaks, it behooves us to listen. The implications of this are that the… major stock indexes are in the initial stages of a multi-month advance.”

Finally, the April 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast calculated a specific target range for the Dow’s rally: the 9,000-10,000 level.

So, now that the upside objective is met, where are prices set to go next? For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page July issue of Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist.

Stiglitz memang masih pesimis terhadap langkah-langkah pemulihan yang telah dilakukan.  Bagi anda yang tengah berharap market mau turun, pendapat-pendapat dari Stiglitz bisa digunakan sebagai ‘rasionalisasi’ (alasan rasional) jika nanti market bergerak turun.

Stiglitz: Odds of Robust US Rebound ‘Very, Very Weak’ – General * Asia * News * Story – CNBC.com

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Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.
Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”

Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.

(AUD/USD) Could the Aussie finally be turning south in a larger way?  We will wait and see. Confidence has risen but we are still waiting for new lows to be made.

Blanchard and Company’s Chairman and CEO Donald Doyle is interviewed about investing in gold.

ANSWER:

GOLD SOLD FOR USD750 on November 19, 2008, So TODAY USD950 an above.

Net Profit Sell Today: USD200 per coin, 1 oz (31.1gm)

If you have 5 coin (5 oz) x USD200 = USD1,000 / MYR3,600

The price shown is not including Rare & Scarce coin that will give more numismatic value.