Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

• #1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
• #2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
• #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
• #4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
• #5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
• #6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
• #7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
• #8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
• #9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
• #10  Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season.  It’s hard to believe we’re already here.  Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself.  Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash?  Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.  

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said?  You’ve got to love “the bird.”  Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May.  After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta.  Big mistake.  He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny.  For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.”  Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him.  In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us.  I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant. 

He ought to run away with this one, right? 

It’s a foregone conclusion, right? 

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?  

“Not so fast!” 

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races.  We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get.  The trouble is  (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race?  I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out.  You know he’ll do that much.  He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be.  I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.  

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him.  Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though.  He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide.  Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is.  The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough.  It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory).  Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career.  He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle.  Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires. 

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch.  When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one.  We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come.  A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch.  That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs.  Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace. 

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore.  Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk?  He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance.  If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here.  I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont.  Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half.  Some just take longer than others.”  My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance.  Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race.  If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field).  All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th.  My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird.  If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance.  If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird?  He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race.   Don’t we see this happen all the time?  Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and  prevails.  All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so.  Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race?  I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th.  That means 13 other runners finished behind him.  What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont.  This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory.  He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again.  I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy.  Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14. 

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov.  We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.”  It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot  Spitzer.  Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102.  I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter.  Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff.  The Tiznow of the field.  Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board.  The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt.  At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself.  I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped.  You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts.  NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow!  Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now.  What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself.  It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat? 

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field.  No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary.  I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade.  It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered. 

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through.  The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise.  Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

• #7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
• #6 Charitable Man (3/1)
• #1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours.  It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.

It’s not often that horse racing fans are treated to a weekend quite like this. Not only do we get the 141st running of the Belmont, but the entire card for Saturday is a star studded affair filled with quality runners. Mine That Bird, Forever Together, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justwhistledixie…they are all here. What’s more, guaranteed $1 million pools await both Pick 4 and Pick 6 players. If there’s ever been a day outside of the Breeders’ Cup that exemplified the whole idea behind the “Take Back Saturday” initiative, it’s right here, right now. 

Obviously I’m jumping the gun a bit by posting my picks a full 48 hours in advance of post time. Needless to say late changes and scratches could totally alter the complexion of these races (and indeed the selections themselves). Even worse, one cannot be certain what Mother Nature may have in store.  As of this writing, current forecasts for Elmont, NY (according to weather.com) call for “periods of heavy rain” on Friday, followed by a “mostly sunny” Saturday with highs near 77°.

Let’s hope for the best then and assume that Saturday will be a glorious day for racing, befitting of all the talented competitors, equine and human, answering the call to post.   

DO NOT make the mistake though of overlooking this undercard.  It is jam packed with interesting races.  What follows are my initial thoughts, and while I rank my top 3 selections, I’ve decided to forego offering actual wager advice.  My reason for doing so is that, in all honesty, my wagers tend to change once I get a look at the horses in the post parade.  This means that any selections I give out here could be played by someone reading along, whereas my own wagers have evolved.  I try to “tweet” these changes whenever possible, but as one can imagine that’s not always so. 

Besides, as I always say, one should do their own handicapping if they are wagering a single dime.  It’s your money, so you’d be wise to make sure you’re betting your picks.  Not to mention you don’t have to wager to watch horse racing.  You can be a fan of the horses and not wager a single dime.  It’s still the best show in town. 

What then is the value of my selections and why do I bother sharing?  Because…we’re horseplayers.  And if we’re not that we’re at least horse racing fans. We’re the most opinionated, stubborn mules the world has ever seen.   Besides, we love to share our opinions. Speaking of which, make sure you check out the rest of the TBA bloggers as well, as no doubt we’ll be all over the place with our coverage. Quite a few of us “tweet” as well, if you’re so inclined.

With that in mind, I want to hear as many selections as possible from commentors. Everything you’ve got.   C’mon peeps. It’s Belmont time!  Sound off like you’ve got a pair!!!

Here’s a closer look at each of the races comprising the Pick 6 sequence, beginning with the True North Handicap (G2) in race 6 and ending  with the Manhattan Handicap (G1) in race 10. The Belmont, which concludes both wagering sequences, will be the subject of it’s own post.  It’s the Belmont for godsakes…it deserves it’s own post. 

Race 6:  The 31st running of the True North Handicap (G2) – 6 Furlongs

• #1 Benny the Bull (E. Prado/ R. Dutrow) 5/2
• #2 Silver Edition (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 8/1
• #3 Two Step Salsa (G. Gomez/ S. bin Suroor) 3/1
• #4 Sixthirteen (E. Coa/ M. Hushion) 12/1
• #5 Desert Key (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
• #6 Fabulous Strike (R. Dominguez/ T. Beattie) 2/1*

Selections:

• #1 Benny the Bull (5/2)
• #6 Fabulous Strike (2/1)
• #5 Desert Key (6/1)

We kick things off in the Pick 6 sequence with the True North Handicap. The race marks the return of one of the most popular sprinters in North America, #1 Benny the Bull.  Last year it took Benny until the final few hundred yards to kick into high gear before he was able to run down Man of Danger and Abraaj in the stretch.  He ought to get a decent pace to run at here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all given both the 6-year-old son of Lucky Lionel’s popularity and his human connections (particularly trainer Rick Dutrow) if he wound up going to post as the favorite.  Currently he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line behind #6 Fabulous Strike.  The question will be whether Benny is in sharp enough form to prevail after being on the shelf since last July.  If his workout tab is any indication (and really, what else have we to go on barring last minute eyeball handicapping during the post parade?), then he appears to be ready to roll.  His last 3 workouts in particular being the most encouraging.  

Fabulous Strike ought to be on the gas early on, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to win.  Still, the son of Smart Strike would appear to be the one the rest of the field will need to catch in order to get their picture taken in the winner’s circle.  #5 Desert Key hasn’t been out of the Exacta in his last 8 races and looks like a “must use” horse underneath in the exotics.  You might be able to get away with using Benny the Bull as a single on your exotic wagers, but I’d probably cover Fabulous Strike as well just to be safe. 

Race 7:  The 16th running of the Just A Game (G1) – 1 Mile (Turf)

• #1 Carribean Sunset (R. Dominguez/ C. Clement) 6/1
• #2 Raw Silk (P. Lopez/ T. Albertrani) 10/1
• #3 Captain’s Lover (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 8/1
• #4 I Lost My Choo (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 15/1
• #5 Forever Together (J. Leparoux/ J. Sheppard) 6/5*
• #6 Modern Look (G. Gomez/ R. Frankel) 8/1
• #7 Diamondrella (R. Maragh/ A. Penna Jr.) 8/1
• #8 My Princess Jess (C. Velasquez/ B. Tagg) 5/1

Selections:

• #5 Forever Together (6/5*)
• #6 Modern Look (8/1)
• #7 Diamondrella (8/1)

The Just A Game features the current top turf female in the nation, Forever Together.  The 5-year-old daughter of Belong to Me and current Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion has won her last 3 races, as well as 4 of her last 5 overall.  She seems quite lethal at any distance from a mile onward, and boasts a 3-2-0-1 record from today’s mile distance.  Clearly she’s the horse to beat.  The question is whether any of the runners in this field have what it takes to potentially pull the upset?  

Depending on what kind of impression she makes in the post parade, it migh be worth taking a ride on #6 Modern Look.  She’ll likely offer some value as her running lines don’t necessarily jump off the page at you.  However, take note of a few key items. For starters, she was favored in her U.S. debut back in March and ran a decent race, all things considered, finishing 2nd. Certainly she’s got a right to improve.  Her workout lines also suggest she’s at least enjoying her Belmont surroundings. Most importantly, however, note the runners she finished  4th to last May at Longchamp (France):  Zarkava, Goldikova, and Halfway to Heaven.  Zarkava or Goldikova would be obvious singles in this race in my opinion, even with Forever Together. With that in mind, I’m going to use Modern Look as my 2nd choice behind the favorite. 

Looking deeper, #7 Diamondrella has gutted out 5 consecutive victoires going back to last June, including her only start of 2009 in the Giants Causeway at Keeneland in April.  This will obviously be quite a class hike for her as she faces off against the favorite, but you’ve got to like that sort of consistent form. The obvious question will be whether she can handle the extra distance as she seems to be more of a sprinter. #2 Raw Silk will likely be the pace and should enjoy the mile distance of the Just A Game.  One also can’t overlook the runners on the bookends. #1 Carribean Sunset was favored in her U.S. debut last month in the Beaugay (G3), but came up 1 3/4 lenths short behind #8 My Princess Jess.  I could see these two fighting for a minor award.

Race 8: The 25th running of the Woody Stephens (G2) – 7 Furlongs

• #1 Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 2/1*
• #1A Everyday Heroes (J.C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 2/1*
• #2 This Ones for Phil (G. Gomez/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
• #3 Gone Astray (E. Prado/ C. McGaughey III) 15/1
• #4 Munnings (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
• #5 Triumphant Flight (K. Desormeaux/ E. Kruljac) 15/1
• #6 Hello Broadway (R. Dominguez/ B. Tagg) 12/1
• #7 Kensei (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 15/1
• #8 Hull (M. Mena/ D. Romans) 3/1

Selections:

• #2 This Ones for Phil (7/2)
• #1 Regal Ransom/ #1A Everyday Heroes (2/1*)
• #8 Hull (3/1)

The Woody Stephens has bit of a “hey, whatever happened to so-and-so?” feel, as a couple of characters return to the spotlight after running a bit under the radar recently.  Trainer Rick Dutrow sends out the “Beyer freak” #2 This Ones for Phil.  You might remember this guy as the dude who improved his Beyer figure by 39 points in the Sunshine Millions Dash back in January.  Since then he was taken off the Triple Crown trail and kept at the shorter distances, where he’s proved he can consistently churn out impressive speed figures.  He hasn’t been able to win since January, but he has run into some pretty good runners in Quality Road, Big Drama, and Mr. Fantasy along the way.  He should find this field more to his liking, as well as the tricky 7 furlong distance that he’s proven he can handle (albeit through a disqualification of Big Drama in the Swale). 

The coupled entry of #1 Regal Ransom and #1A Everyday Heroes looks quite formidable here as well.  The interseting thing is that I actually liked Regal Ransom quite a bit leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m now more interested in Everyday Heroes, who is undefeated in 4 lifetime starts.   Then there’s #8 Hull, who at one point was considered a Preakness contender before being pointed to the Woody Stephens instead.  I think you’d be wise to cover all of these runners in the exotics as this appears to be a bit more open a race than the first two in the sequence.  

Another horse you’ve got to consider here is #4 Munnings.  Remember this guy?  At one point last year he was one of the more highly regarded juveniles.  After disappearing for many months, he resurfaced at the allowance level and promptly posted a career best Beyer figure (101) in running a respectable 2nd in his first start of 2009.  Although he’s yet to win at the 7 furlong distance, he is a Speightstown colt, which means you’d be wise to consider him at any sprint distance.  Of the entire field, he’s the runner I’m most interested in getting an actual look at in the post parade.  I didn’t rank him as one of my top 3 selections, but he’s an intriguing runner in here.  The only trouble is that he might get hammered at the windows due to that triple digit Beyer.  If the value is there, and if he makes an impression in the paddock, he could well be the play. 

Race 9:  The 79th running of the Acorn (G1) – 1 Mile

• #1 Casanova Move (J. Lezcano/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
• #2 Gabby’s Golden Gal (J. Castellano/ B. Baffert) 15/1
• #3 Be Fair (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
• #4 Funny Moon (A. Garcia/ C. Clement) 8/1
• #5 Doremifasollatido (E. Coa/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
• #6 Livin Lovin (R. Dominguez/ S. Klesaris) 15/1
• #7 Dream Play (R. Migliore/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
• #8 Justwhistledixie (J. Leparoux/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
• #9 Four Gifts (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 6/1

Selections:

• #8 Justwhistledixie (8/5*)
• #4 Funny Moon (8/1)
• #7 Dream Play (6/1)

The Acorn would seem to be all about #8 Justwhistledixie.  If there’s one 3-year-old filly in the nation capable of running respectably against Rachel Alexandra, it’s her.  Unfortunately, she scratched from the Kentucky Oaks last month due to the sloppy track conditions.  We all know what happened next as Queen Rachel romped by over 20 lengths and caught the eye of Jess Jackson.  The rest is history.  With no Rachel to contend with today, Justwhistledixie looks like a clear favorite that those looking for a life changing score in the exotics will have to hope they can get past.  

Of all the contenders, I’d give the improving #4 Funny Moon the best shot to pull the upset.  Not only is she improving rapidly, but her final times at the mile distance in her last two victories would appear to stack up very well against this field.  Also note that she’ll have Alan Garcia aboard for the trip, who also piloted Justwhistledixie in 3 of her 5 lifetime victories.  If she looks live in the post parade, she could be just the type of horse that helps blow up the payouts in the exotics.  

#1 Casanova Move has had the misfortune of running into ‘Dixie several times in recent memory, and seems to find a way to hit the board underneath.  It would be nice to see #5 Doremifasollatido in the mix at the end, if only to hear her name in the stretch call, but I’m not sure if the mile distance will be to her liking.  On the other hand, #6 Livin Lovin, #7 Dream Play, and #3 Be Fair all have victories at the distance, and are lightly raced enough that we’ve still got room for improvement.  Dream Play and Livin Lovin can also boast of being graded stakes winners.  Same goes for #9 Four Gifts.  This one might not be as obvious as it appears on paper is all I’m sayin’, although I do expect the favorite to prevail. 

Race 10: The 108th running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf)

• #1 Court Vision (R. Dominguez/ W. Mott) 4/1
• #1A Optimer (R. Rodriguez/ S. Dutrow) 4/1
• #2 Champs Elysees (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1
• #3 Marsh Slide (J. Castellano/ N. Drysdale) 20/1
• #4 Premium Gold (E. Prado/ J. Kimmel) 20/1
• #5 Gio Ponti (G. Gomez/ C. Clement) 7/2
• #6 Wesley (K. Desormeaux/ M. Hennig) 12/1
• #7 Senior (M. Luzzi/ J. Delozier) 50/1
• #8 Better Talk Now (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 15/1
• #9 Cosmonaut (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 6/1
• #10  Interpatation (R. Maragh/ R. Barbara) 20/1
• #11  Lauro (A. Starke/ A. Wohler) 15/1
• #12  Cowboy Cal (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1*
• #2B  Zambezi Sun (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1

Selections:

• #6 Wesley (12/1)
• #12 Cowboy Cal (3/1*)
• #1 Court Vision (4/1)

I’m going to come right out and say something that probably sounds like heathen blasphemy on Belmont Day.  The Manhattan Handicap is the “race of the day”, by far, on paper.  Just look at this field!   I’ll start with “Blackie” (#8  Better Talk Now), a former turf champion and over $4 million lifetime earner.  You’ve no idea how happy it would make me if Blackie found a way to get it done on Saturday.  I’ve loved this horse for years, and whlie he’s clearly in the autumn of his distinguished career, it warms my heart whenever I see his name among the entries.  Over the past year I’ve also become quite fond of both #1 Court Vision and #12 Cowboy Cal on the turf.  Cowboy Cal in particular has quietly become one of my favorite runners. I was hoping to get more than 3/1 on him here, and was a bit shocked that he was the favorite on the morning line, but I suspect bettors will be spread out here offering decent value on whomever you wind up on. 

Despite my affinity for these runners, I’m going to pick a shocker here for the upset.  #6 Wesley looks primed and ready to run a big one. I saw this guy on Preakness day at Pimlico and was quite taken with him in the post parade fo the Dixie. If you didn’t see that race, it’s worth watching again. Wesley ran well enough to win, only he was forced to steady several times on the turns.  His running line merely denotes “6wd 1/8″, but it was much more than just being wide.  I left thinking he was by far the best horse of that field, despite finishing 3rd. I’m expecting a big improvement this weekend, and I’m encouraged to see his latest workout at Belmont on 5/31 was a sharp 4 furlongs in 47 and 3.  This is a salty group, and he’s obviously got to prove he can get the extra distance here, but based on that wide trip in the Dixie I’d argue that he’s already been a mile and a quarter! #5 Gio Ponti, #2 Champs Elysees, and # 9 Cosmonaut could all make some noise in here as well. Depending on how you’re playing your exotics, this might be another wise spot to go deep and spread on the coverage. 

Best of luck to all. With any luck you’re still alive in your exotics as we get set for Belmont 141.

…he shows up and runs his race. You can never say anything in horse racing is a sure thing. There are so many things that can cause a horse to lose a race and most of them the average viewer never knows about. Let’s look at the ways Big Brown can be denied the Triple Crown.

1. He doesn’t run in the race. Could happen, not likely.

2. He loses the rider out of the gate. Not likely, but has happened before.

3. He breaks down.

4. He gets into a HUGE amount of trouble.

5. He loses a shoe, which could easily be enough to throw his stride completely off.

6. He bleeds during the race. Many horses have bled, even when they showed no signs before of bleeding.

7. Desormeux thinks the race is six furlongs and rides the worse race in the history of racing.

8. Big Brown gets struck by lightning.

Other than that, this colt wins the Triple Crown. Is he a great race horse? Absolutely. The only problem is that he is not running against other horses considered to be really good or great. But these are not donkeys either. He has destroyed every horse he has run against. None of his races have been close.

He has won races doing things other horses have rarely been able to do. He won from the far outside in the Florida Derby, something that had NEVER been done since the track had been re-configured.

He won the Kentucky Derby from the 20 post, something that had only been done once before! And he won the Derby EASY. Like breaking tiny sticks.

He destroyed the field in the Preakness. His race in the Preakness was probably his best race, although the numbers don’t show it. This is where numbers are misleading. Big Brown was asked to run for maybe 150 to 200 yards. His move when they turned for home was nothing short of amazing. Rarely, at that stage of a race, do you see a horse re-break with such sudden acceleration. He was being geared down the last sixteenth.

In each of his last three races it would not be hard to imagine him breaking the track record if he was actually asked to really extend himself.

So the pick is obvious, but who runs second? As of this time Casino Drive has not been declared out of the Belmont, so we will include him in our handicapping. We are going to throw him out. He seems like an immensely talented colt but does not seem to be coming into this race like you would like to see a top horse come into a race. His one work was so slow they really can’t even say it was a work.

Casino Drive also appears to have a bruised foot, which obviously could be a big problem. But even before that the colt seem very uncomfortable with the way he was traveling. He is not a real good mover. So we are going to throw him out here, hope he gets better, and hope he can meet Big Brown down the road.

We are going to go with Dennis of Cork to run second. He ran a very credible race in The Derby after having some serious traffic problems. He will get a clear shot at Big Brown here. He has trained well since the Preakness.

Macho Again was one of our exacta picks in the Preakness and came through with flying colors. We like him here again.

Icabad Crane is our choice to fill our the perfecta. He seems like he might be able to run all day long and we expect him to pass tiring horses.

But let’s get real here, if Big Brown shows up and runs any of the races he has run in his last three…he is the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. Let’s hope he continues to run, but that is the subject of another article.

1. Big Brown

2. Denis of Cork

3. Macho Again

4. Icabad Crane

Note: Breaking news just as I was about to leave:  Casino Drive may be out of the Belmont:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/June/06/casino-drive-physi

Saturday.  Belmont Day. Triple Crown Day…perhaps a date with history. Thirteen races are scheduled, with the feature of course being the 140th running of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes – a race that will see Big Brown try to become the first colt in 30 years to capture the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.  There are 5 other graded stakes on the card, including the Just a Game (G1), The Acorn (G1), the True North Handicap (G2), the Woody Stephens (G2), and the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1). 

Some of the finest names in all of horse racing will be on the track in addition to Big Brown. The Acorn has drawn Indian Blessing, long thought to be the finest filly in the country before Proud Spell was able to turn the tables on her back in March. The True North Handicap features one of the fastest horses on the planet in Benny the Bull. Last, but certainly not least, the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap features what could be the final run in the magnificent career of “Blackie”, better known to many as Better Talk Now.

I’ve handicapped the first 11 races on the card, culminating in the Belmont Stakes. I figured I’d be battling traffic out the track by the time that was over, or (knock on wood) standing in line to cash a few tickets.  I’m headed up to NY in just a few hours, so I wanted to share this with you as quick as possible.  You guys will have over 24 hours to dissect/discuss/debate. Without further adieu, let’s take a look at each race. 

Race 1:  ALW 65000 N1X  – 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

• #1 Desert Key/ #1A Forest of Dreams (3/1*)
• #11 Accredit (4/1)
• #7 Commandeered (7/2)

If both portions of the entry of #1 Desert Key and #1A Forest of Dreams draw into the race, they look quite formidable to overcome.  Of the two, I prefer #1 Desert Key who looks slightly more consistent and with only 3 races under hist belt is eligible to move forward.  Note that Desert Key finished behind Ready’s Image by 3/4 of a length last out.  You may want to use this colt as a measuring stick for how well Ready’s Image may perform as the 2/1 favorite in today’s 9th race – the Woody Stephens (G2).  #11 Accredit has been a solid colt thus far in his career.  Really only  his debut was of poor quality. He appears to have been training well over the synthetics as of late, and his Beyer figures could improve with a return to dirt today.  #7 Commandeered took some play in the Hirsch Jacobs (G3) on Preakness day, despite being up against two quick ones in Lantana Mob and Force Freeze (not to mention Silver Edition – who we will also see in today’s 9th race).  A longshot to keep an eye on may be #8 Golden Age.  That debut Beyer figure of 95 hints at talent, although he’ll face quite a bit more than Md Sp Wt $16k company today.

Race 2: Md Sp Wt 62k 3↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #6 Tiz It (5/2*)
• #4 White Tie (6/1)
• #2 Zong (6/1)

This race is pretty wide open. I don’t usually like to take the favorite in maiden races, but for a maiden #6 Tiz It has been up against some stiff competition in his 5 lifetime starts.  Just look at those names in his past performance lines:  Massive Drama, Smoth Air, Silver Edition, Halo Najib.  I like that he perked up a bit last time out here and ran a 99 Beyer, although buyers must be ware as his last highest Beyer (90) was promptly followed with a career bounce (60).  I settled on two expensive purchases for my 2nd and 3rd choices, although I think there are a number of ways folks could go.  #4 White Tie was a $1.3 million purchase in August of 2006.  It looks like he’s been working well in the mornings and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is known to be productive with 1st time starters.  Likewise, #2 Zong was a $1.7 million purchase in November of 2005. Besides these two, I think #7 Sixthirteen (7/2), #3 Bob’s Star (5/1), and #10 Golden Weekend (3/1) were all very playable as well.

Race 3: Md Sp Wt 57k – 3↑ (1 1/8 Miles – Inner Turf Track)

• #4 Piazza Di Spagna (5/1)
• #8 Smart Enuf (8/5*)
• #5 Seeking No More (6/1)

This was a weird race to handicap.  I settled on #4 Piazza Di Spagna as I thought he might perk up a bit wirh Ramon Dominguez aboard if he could get  a clean trip.  I also thought he had the more favorable post position for the inner turf track than some of the other contenders.  #8 Smart Enuf returns to the grass, which should help him, plus he’ll likely be on or near the lead.   #5 Seeking No More was running hurdles in 2 of his last 3.  If nothing else he ought to have the conditioning for this event as he was running over 2 miles in each of those races. For a longer shot, call me crazy, but the #9 Marsaponi has room to improve after joining trainer Thomas Bush’s barn.  Note that while he hasn’t run well, he was facing Icabad Crane (3rd place finisher in the Preakness) and Cannonball.   I’d expect improvement today.

Race 4: OC 50k/N2X – 3↑ (1 Mile)

• #4 Forefathers (3/1*)
• #6 Mobo (4/1)
• #11 Teide (5/1)

Today’s 4th race is an interesting affair.  #4 Forefathers looks plenty dangerous here dropping in from Grade 3 territory.  This is a guy who’s faced the likes of Daaher, Deadly Dealer, Elite Squadron, and Midnight Lute.  He’s capable of turning in duds, but this ought to set him up nicely. Note how he ran a triple digit Beyer (100) when dropped into Alw48000 territory back in March. He should be able to get a nice off-the pace trip running into some decent splits today.   #6 Mobo  has turned in two stellar double digit win performances in a row, winning by a combined 22 lengths.  Sure it gets harder today, but any kind of step forward will find this one being tough to defeat.  There is a bit of pace pressure in this race when looking at the form, but this guy has pulled away beautifully in the stretch each of those last two, not just held on begging for the wire.  #11 Teide draws the extreme outside, but has turned in several sharp races in a row.  Sure he was beaten chalk last out, and in fact beaten by another of today’s rivals (#6 Firejack), but that was over the synthetic track at Keeneland, so it’s really almost a toss.

Race 5: Alw 59000 N1X – 3↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #4 Wonforthegoodguys (15/1)
• #9 Too Tough Pete (5/1)
• #12 Benny the Waiter (3/1*)

Did I really wind up on a 15/1 here?  It appears so – although this guy isn’t really a bad 15/1 when you look at him. #4 Wonforthegoodguys has been a tough claiming competitor for the entire year, and has been pretty consistent if you toss out that start three back.  His Beyer’s may not be sexy, but they aren’t that far off what it would take to win here.  Plus he’s got an inspiring name. I like him.  #9 Too Tough Pete exits a maiden score over the track last time out and has been well bet in each lifetime start.  #12 Benny the Waiter almost looks like Benny the Bull light – okay maybe not.  But he sounds like him, doesn’t he?  Is this a Benny-filled day?  Dare I say – Beneful? 

Race 6:  The True North Handicap – Grade 2 – 3YO  (6 Furlongs)

• #7 Benny the Bull (4/5*)
• #4 Abraaj (5/1)
• #2 Thor’s Echo (7/2)

Benny the Bull is one of the fastest horses on earth and should be a force to contend with here.  Perhaps the only thing his rivals can hope for is a “Dubai bounce” as he returns from a score in the $2,000,000 Golden Shaheen (Grade 1). #4 Abraaj would appear to be the only entry with the speed figures capable of contending.  Even so, he’s stepping up today and would need a career best to contend. #2 Thor’s Echo could be a player if he returns to the form he showed in 2006.  The trouble is that he’s shown nothing of note since, including two less than appealing starts in Dubai in 2007 and nothing so far in 2008. He has been training well though. A longshot that I don’t think is getting the credit he deserves is #6 Council Member at 20/1.  This guy is coming off non embarrassing Stakes tries and could well wind up in the money.  I’ll say the same about #5 Suave Jazz who was a neck away from winning on Preakness day.   Don’t discount these guys totally from hitting for minor shares.

Race 7: The Just A Game – Grade 1 – Fillies and Mares 3↑ (1 Mile – Turf)

• #10 Vacare (3/1*)
• #5 Criminologist (9/2)
• #1 Lady of Venice (4/1)

#10 Vacare looks to be the one to beat here. She’s faced some of the better older females in the country, including Precious Kitten, Wait a While, and an old favorite of mine I still wish was running – Citronnade. The outside post is a bit of a concern, but she’s classy enough to handle it. #1 Lady of Venice is a fighter who lately has been settling for minor awards.  #5 Criminologist looks tough to me here today.  She’s won 5 of her last 6 races! I wouldn’t discount several others from winding up in the money here either, such as #3 Bit of Whimsy, and #4 Ventura.

Race 8: The Acorn – Grade 1 – Fillies 3YO (1 Mile)

• #2 Indian Blessing (1/1*)
• #3 Game Face (5/2)
• #1 Zaftig (3/1)

Don’t be too fooled by the 5 horse field and the presence of one of the top fillies in the nation in #3 Indian Blessing – this one actually could be a battle. Indian Blessing cutting back to a mile should be enough to ensure the victory, but she’s running into some improving fillies in #1 Zaftig and #3 Game Face.  I wouldn’t leave #5 Golden Doc A totally out of it either as she’s given Indian Blessing all she can handle in the past as well.  This one is tougher than it seems, although it is Indian Blessing’s to lose. 

Race 9: The Woody Stephens – Grade 2 – 3YO (7 Furlongs)

•  #5 J Be K (3/1)
• #3 Silver Edition (5/1)
• #2 Ready’s Image (2/1*)

The Woody Stephens looks wide open to me.  I think you’ve got a slightly vulnerable favorite here in Ready’s Image.  At one point last year this was one of the better 2 year-old colts in the nation.  I like his comeback in May over the track, but the competition gets tougher today. #5 J Be K has been getting better and better each time I see him.  Okay, he’s got one hiccup in the Louisiana Derby, but besides that he’s fired every time out.  The horse he lost to last time out, Harlem Rocker, is partially owned by a friend and fellow TBA blogger, and is a horse many of us thought might have the best chance to knock off Big Brown in the Preakness if he had run.  That’s definitely something to keep in mind.  #3 Silver Edition has been on the improve as well.  I saw his run on Preakness Day where he lost by a neck and thought it was most impressive.  A longshot to keep an eye on in the post parade is #9 Majestic Warrior.  At one point last year he was my pick for the 2008 KY Derby (we’re talking December ‘07/January ‘08 here - long before folks were even thinking of Big Brown).  I always expect better from him, and one of these days his talent will show up.  It’s just trying to figure out when that is maddening.

Race 10: The Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap – Grade 1 – 3↑ (1 1/4 Miles – Inner Turf)

• #9 Proudinsky (7/2*)
• #5 Out of Control ((4/1)
• #10 Dancing Forever (5/1)

This is actually a sentimental race for me.  You see, one of my favorite horses on earth is racing in what for all I know could be his last start. Certainly it will be the last time I see him again.  #1 Better Talk  Now.  While he doesn’t come up in my picks, “Blackie” has given us a lifetime’s worth of memories, as evidenced by his 14 wins and $4 million in lifetime earnings.   Run well, buddy- it’s been such an honor to see you perform.  Looking at the race I thought #9 Proudinksy warrants favorite status here after being able to defeat Daytona.  #5 Out of Control  has run well against the likes of Einstein and Kip Deville- who are two of the tops in their division.  #10 Dancing Forever is right there with the leaders based on his last two.  I ranked him a notch lower due to the outside post position.  Keep an eye on #4 Stalingrad at 20/1.  I’ve heard some folks whispering that they think this guy could continue to improve. 

Race 11: The Belmont Stakes – Grade 1 – 3YO (1 1/2 Miles)

• #1 Big Brown (2/5*)
• #5 Casino Drive (7/2)
• #4 Denis of Cork (12/1)

Well here it is – the feature race andour date with destiny. Can Big Brown bring home the Triple Crown?  Oh, you bet he can.  I’m not worried about the post – I’ll never worry about the post again with this colt after he overcame the 20 hole in the Derby – although to be honest, I’d much prefer he were hung outside again today.  There shouldn’t be anyone close to him as he hits the wire.  #5 Casino Drive is your logical play in the exacta.  It’ll be interesting to see how this guy stacks up against Big Brown.  He’s certainly bred for the Belmont.  I thought there were several horses you could use underneath, including Macho Again, Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Ready’s Echo, and Icabad Crane.  Ultimately I went with Denis of Cork – but it’s anyone’s guess.

EDIT: Just before I left the house, word has come that Casino Drive may be out – looks like Big Brown’s a lock now!

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/June/06/casino-drive-physi

So there you have it folks.  Hopefully we can all make some money and watch history in the making.  Years from now you may find yourself telling stories about where you were when Big Brown won the Triple Crown.  I know we’ve discussed and debated Big Brown, Dutrow, and everything in between at length.   As racing fans, just make sure you sit back and enjoy the spectacle that’s been 30 years in the making. 

Riders up!