St. Petersburg Bowl

UCF vs. Rutgers

This might be a nice game to watch, if you have been following the Big East and Conference USA, a pretty nice matchup of two good schools and two good coaches.

I really like what UCF has done since they have come into the big leagues. Granted they are not one of the BCS conferences, but when you have a school in Florida, you have an excellent chance to get strong recruits. But I also like the way Rutgers has turned things around, I found myself really enjoying this team when I had a chance to see them. So I am split on who I want to win, but I have to defer to my stats as who SHOULD win.

Now I am sure few will argue which is the stronger conference, the Big East is better than Conference USA. This is NOT to say that CUSA is a half a step off the 4A high school conferences, because we have seen some good teams this year out of this non bcs conference.

But we still have to credit Rutgers for surviving in a tough league, right? Let’s see:

Central Florida comes into this game with an 8-4 record, which seems pretty strong. But such a record should have them as one of the top 25 in the nation, right? Their four losses were to Southern Miss, East Carolina, Miami and Texas… consider for a sec that three of those 4 losses were away….hmmm.

Consider also that all four of these teams are winning teams. So you have to ask, did Central Florida beat any quality teams? Marshall ends up with a 6-6 record, but Houston was a big win for Central Florida. It was a home game though, which makes one raise their eyebrows on the true strength of UCF. To be great, you have to win big games on the road. Three of their four losses were on the road, granted to some good teams, but beating Houston at home was in their favor. Still this is a quality team, I cannot take too much away from that.

Rutgers comes in with an identical 8-4 record, with a few raised eyebrows too. Three of their losses were AT home…ugh. And playing FIU, Howard AND Texas Southern is highly questionable. Come on guys, you are a BCS conference, man up!

Beating Maryland isn’t saying too much, but beating UCONN and West Virginia does mean something, especially since West Virginia was ranked when Rutgers beat them. Still, these two teams ended up 7-5, barely above average.

So you wonder, who is better? Both teams lost several games to high quality teams, but Rutgers seems to freeze up when they play at home in a big game. They are 4-1 away from home, although that lone loss on the road was to Syracuse…how close is that to Rutgers…

But Central Florida will be playing in their home state, which evens out the game a bit. But if you ask me who had the tougher schedule, I might say Rutgers, by the slightest of margins. Central Florida fed a lot on the bottom of CUSA, and has very few quality wins. Rutgers has tasted some hot success, and the trip will do them good. I think Rutgers wins this one, but very close…

Very close.

Things have been a little slow for Tony Soprano – and both of his families – for more than two years now.

No one knows exactly what happened in that diner on the final night of “The Sopranos.” We do know the strange guy sitting at the bar gets up and shoots a glance at Tony on his way to the bathroom. Meadow struggles to park her car and then heads for the entrance. As Meadow opens the door, Tony looks up and boom – everything cuts to black.

So, what has Tony been doing? Has he stayed clean? It could be real busy these days in waste management. Or maybe he’s just hanging with the boys at the Bada Bing.  You figure Silvio Dante has had enough time to snap out of that coma. Imagine what you will, but it seems the perfect job just opened up for Tony and Silvio. It’s time for them to take a little trip to Chicago, visit the Big Ten Conference office and use their power of persuasion with commissioner Jim Delany.

All on behalf of Rutgers University, of course.

The wheels of expansion and realignment are rolling through college athletics again. Based on history, it’s about time. The last major shakeup came in 2003 when the ACC raided the Big East, sending ripples all across the college landscape.

Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez let it slip the other day and then the Big Ten followed with an official statement Tuesday saying the conference will conduct a “thorough evaluation of options for conference structure and expansion.” Somewhere between those events, the rumors and speculation began. The Big Ten says recommendations will come over the next 12 to 18 months, but it’s pretty easy to figure out a handful of institutions that will be likely candidates for that 12^th spot.

Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Missouri, Nebraska, Texas, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Notre Dame are among those in the bowl of speculation.

We can save everyone a lot of time and money. The State University of New Jersey would be the best choice. (In case you didn’t know, that’s Rutgers).

Rutgers has already issued an official response, one that was accurately described by the Newark Star-Ledger as “brief and totally non-committal.” Said Rutgers athletic director Tim Pernetti: “We are a proud member of the Big East Conference. It is not our place to speculate on the expansion plays of any other conference.”

No one asked Pernetti to speculate on the Big Ten’s plans. We want to know the level of Rutgers’ interest. And since Pernetti didn’t tell the Big Ten to go away, we can only read between the lines. The Scarlet Knights are willing to listen, Commissioner Delany.

The Big Ten’s confirmation came as the Rutgers football team boarded a flight to the St. Petersburg Bowl, where the Scarlet Knights will play Central Florida. Steve Politi of the Star-Ledger wrote in a column Wednesday that he could envision Rutgers football coach Greg Schiano “pounding on the cockpit door “ and asking to re-route the plane to Chicago.

But as Politi wrote, it might be too much trying to negotiate with 80 players and a pep band. That’s why I suggest the two-man team of Tony and Silvio, two of Jersey’s most recognizable faces and two guys who get what they want – or else. And don’t forget James Gandolfini, who played the part of Tony Soprano on the HBO series, may be the most visible Rutgers graduate on the planet.

Let’s back up a moment. For all those laughing at my statement that Rutgers would be the best choice, understand that comes with a qualifier. Everyone knows the most desirable program is Notre Dame. South Bend fits nicely into the Big Ten geographic footprint and it preserves rivalries such as Notre Dame vs. Michigan and Notre Dame vs. Michigan State. The Big Ten has been waiting on Notre Dame to give up its independent status ever since Penn State joined to form that awkward 11-team conference.

It’s not happening. Notre Dame isn’t joining a conference. Athletic director Jack Swarbrick reiterated that to the Chicago Tribune this week.

After years of resisting expansion, the Big Ten got the ultimate wake-up call this football season. Once again, the Ohio State-Michigan game didn’t carry the typical national implications. Then the Big Ten had to sit idle and watch the Big 12 and SEC bask in all the attention given to their championship games. Florida vs. Alabama. Texas vs. Nebraska.

There is a greed factor. Money is always part of these decisions. The SEC championship game reportedly generated $14.3 million in shared revenue last season. That translates into $1.2 million per team. When the ACC added Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College, there was hope for a financial bonanza. But the ACC title game has been a disaster and has only generated about $5 million. That’s because the ACC expansion was poorly conceived. The new schools didn’t fit the geographic or institutional molds. And Big Ten football is much more relevant than ACC football.

Rutgers basketball is a bottom-feeder in the Big East, but expansion is always about football – not basketball. Rutgers just spent $102 million to renovate its football stadium. And Rutgers is just down the road from the new stadium opening next season for the Giants and Jets–more than 80,000 seats and a few million TV homes just waiting for a Big Ten championship game.

Schiano is considered one of the bright young coaches in the country. The team has had some high profile wins over the last few years.

The Scarlet Knights went 8-4 this season and the Big East bowl deal landed them in the St. Pete Bowl. Michigan State played a 6-6 record out of the Big Ten all the way to the Alamo Bowl on Jan. 2. Don’t expect a lot of loyalty from Rutgers to the Big East.

New Jersey has been part of Big Ten recruiting geography for a long time. Just ask Penn State coach Joe Paterno. Rutgers offers a large state university that is a member of the Association of American Universities, a research consortium that is important to the Big Ten. There is a true collegiate atmosphere on campus and when it comes to TV market, what could be better than the New York City market?

Out of all the other schools we mentioned before, only Nebraska comes close to Rutgers in most elements. But the Cornhuskers can’t match that enormous TV market.

And Rutgers is the birthplace of college football. Wouldn’t that interest any conference?

All other conferences should be on alert, especially the Big East. This time the Big Ten sounds serious and one move always leads to more. If the Big East loses Rutgers, or any other member, could Villanova be convinced to upgrade its football program to I-A? Could East Carolina or Central Florida fill the spot of Rutgers? Or will the Big East football schools finally be forced to split away from original conference members such as Georgetown, St. John’s, Seton Hall and Providence?

Will the Pac-10 make a move, perhaps pursuing Colorado? What if the Big 12 lost Missouri or Nebraska?

And if Tony Soprano gets involved, will we finally learn the ending of that last show? Maybe it wasn’t Meadow walking in the door of that diner. Maybe it was Jim Delany with a new logo for the Big Ten (Plus Two).

Fade to black. And don’t stop believing. This time the Big Ten means business.

College Football Playoffs?

We all have our ideas of what the BCS should do… or should NOT do, and I suppose mine is no different. As I blog this, there are five undefeated teams in the national spotlight, stirring up controversy on whether there ought to be a college playoff system.

I am not really FOR the playoffs, but not really against it. Let me explain why.

To me, I think the arguments for playoffs are for those who think that the little guy ought to be held in the same esteem as the big guy. Ok, I see a reason for that, but I go back to something an old school wrestler named Ric Flair once said…

“In order to BE the man, you have to BEAT the man”

If you want to be considered up there with the big boys, then play a schedule like them. This is my biggest argument against teams like Boise State, because they had numerous opportunities to make a more challenging schedule, but opted not to do so because they seemed to want sympathy from those sitting on the fence.

I mean, their schedule was weak as water, after you take out Oregon. And granted, that was a great win…in your house… against a first time head coach… in his first game with the Ducks…nice.

But it still is a very quality win. So why did you schedule Miami of Ohio and UC Davis…what’s that about?

To me, before you start whining about playoffs, make sure that we are talking about legit teams. Now, I know TCU is not in the Championship game, and I actually do feel that they deserve strong consideration, and I am not too happy about them playing Boise State in a repeat bowl…that game proves nothing.

Before we start whining about playoffs, we have to define those parameters. First off, how many should be in it. Right off the bat, I don’t believe in a 16 team system, too many teams that have no business fighting for a National title. When you only play 12 or so games, you don’t need 16 teams claiming rights to the throne.

How about 8 teams? I wonder about that too. Go back in your NCAA history books of college football and see how many teams ranked #8 or 7 had a legit shot at a NCAA title…not very many.

To me, the arguments about who should play in the National Championship usually fall on 2-4 teams. Of course, you may argue with me that maybe Boise State, or maybe Florida has a case, but with Florida losing, I would doubt that, and Boise State just has not played a tough enough schedule to prove that they are an elite team. They are just a great team in a soft conference.

So I think IF you have a playoff, it should be the FOUR best teams in the nation. Think about it, Pittsburgh, LSU, Georgia Tech, USC, Ohio State and teams of that ilk have no real claim to the throne.

Second, if you really want to figure on who is the best, force EVERY conference to determine a true champion. Either by playing every team in their conference or having a conference championship. This eliminates the probability of two undefeated teams out of one conference that may not even play each other….BIG 10 for example.

It is conceivable that the Big 10 could have two undefeated teams in their conference, since they don’t play every opponent, and don’t have a conference championship. I think that needs to be fixed, if that means adding one more team to make it an even 12, fine, either that or find some way to have one true champion.

The Pac-10 does not have a championship game, but they do play everybody, so in essence you still get a true champion. We know the ACC, Big 12 and SEC does have a true championship game, and the Big East has a small conference to in theory they can have a true champion, since they would play everybody in their conference.

But the big question comes with non BCS conferences…mainly the Mountain West and WAC. Remember folks, years ago they used to be one super conference, with 16 teams, before they split up…would have been better if they did not. Had they not, then you would have the Boise States, TCUs, Utahs, and other teams would face each other and we would have a TRUE champion, which also would make a much stronger case for the BCS.

But even then, there are so many stipulations that nobody has thought of. The results of this year dictate what people want to see, what if next year is different? What if next year there is only 2 undefeated teams, why then would there need to be a playoff if we have the two best teams in the nation?

If Alabama and Texas were the only undefeated teams in the nation, we would not be having this conversation about playoffs would we? So the temperature of playoffs is based only on what we last saw. What if each of the BCS teams produces an undefeated team, along with the Mountain West and WAC…what if the Mid American Conference puts out an undefeated team…they did last year with Ball State.

So in theory, you could have 9 undefeated teams, what do you do then? What if Notre Dame (ugh) goes undefeated? What if Conference USA produces an undefeated team. Where does this end?

Now these are extremes, but you see my point.

Do I think there needs to be a better way to decide the national champs, maybe, but the smaller teams can help their case by taking out their cupcakes and putting in real meat. TCU to their credit did this, so I can see their argument, but not quite for Boise State.

So, with Congress getting involved (although I don’t see why), things may change sooner than later…but unfortunately, it all comes down to money…ironic since we are talking about sports and college students…that never changes…

Greed, that is…playoffs…maybe.

This gambling session brought to you by F. Dostoyevsky

“At that point I ought to have gone away, but a strange sensation rose up in me, a sort of defiance of fate, and a desire to challenge it, to put out my tongue at it. I laid down the largest stake allowed-four thousand gulden-and lost it. Then, getting hot, I pulled out all I had left, staked it on the same number, and lost again, after which I walked away from the table as though I were stunned. I could not even grasp what had happened to me.” Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Gambler

Are you ready for Round 2? I know what you’re thinking. Who’s going to win the Little Caesar’s Bowl? I’m glad you asked.

Little Caesar’s Bowl–Ohio vs. Marshall (Dec. 26) Line: Ohio -4

Little Caesar’s is still around?

I have a problem picking 6-6 teams in bowl games. I’d feel a lot better about Marshall if they hadn’t lost by 30 to an ugly UTEP team. Also, Marshall is breaking in a new coach. And it won’t be Matthew McConaughey.

This man is not coaching.

Reason to pick Ohio: Coached by Frank Solich, who is old.

Reason to pick against Marshall: Not coached by Matthew McConaughey.

Reason to watch this game: No reason.

Pick: Ohio

Meineke Car Care Bowl–Pitt vs. UNC (Dec. 26) Line Pitt-2

Is George Foreman still involved with the Meineke corporation? UNC seems to always plays in this game. Which is smart. They always sell tickets, it’s the day after Christmas when no one is doing anything (except spending gift cards. Have you seen the growth in the gift card industry? Why can’t we just start writing our friends and family checks?).

Anyway, Pitt might have gone to a BCS Bowl if their kicker had made an extra point. Did you see the photos of the team crying in the tunnel after they lost to Cincinnati? They made Tim Tebow look composed.

UNC has a pretty vanilla offense. Their defense is solid. They’re playing at home. They have a better coach. Pitt has left the building.

Reason to pick UNC: The ACC always wins this game.

Reason to pick Pitt: Wannestadt’s stache is a thing of beauty.

Reason to watch this game: You need a break from using all of your giftcards.

Pick: UNC

Emerald Bowl–USC vs. BC (Dec. 26) Line: USC-7

My first reaction when I saw that USC is a 7 point favorite in this game? I wanted to hit someone. They shouldn’t be favored against anyone. I wish that Joe McKnight had changed his mind at the last minute and gone to Alabama. Can you imagine a team with McKnight, Ingram and Trent Richardson? I mean, that team would be good. Unfortunately for McKnight, he chose to go to USC. And they are bad.

Anyway, BC isn’t a very good team. They have much less talent. They have to fly across the country to play in this game. But they are going to play like the game actually matters.

Wouldn't you rather be at Alabama, Joe McKnight?

I don’t think USC is going to care. This is hard. Pac 10>acc (the conference doesn’t deserve caps). USC talent>BC talent. BC’s motivation>USC’s motivation.

When in doubt, take the underdog.

Reason to pick USC: They have a better team.

Reason to pick BC: They are probably going to win the game.

Reason to watch: Always enjoyable watching USC lose.

Pick: BC

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl–Kentucky vs. Clemson (Dec. 27) Line: Clemson-7.5

Quick: take Kentucky. Don’t think about it. Just do it. Clemson just lost to South Carolina. I know you don’t want to pick Kentucky. I am begging you. Just do it. Randall Cobb and Lindley are great players. You won’t regret this. It’s the SEC vs. the acc. I know Clemson has Spiller and he’ll have 352 all purpose yards in the game. But this is a slam dunk. Do it. Stop reading this and click Kentucky.

Reason to pick Kentucky: They are going to win outright.

Reason to pick against Clemson: They are not going to win.

Reason to watch this game: To see which haggard country music star performs at halftime.

Pick: Kentucky

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl–Texas A&M vs. Georgia (Dec. 28) Line: Georgia-7

The good people of Shreveport always find a compelling corporate sponsor for this game. This year, Advocare wants to sell you their health and nutrition products, namely the V100 multivitamin. Which is a good sponsor. If you’re watching the Independence Bowl, you are probably asking yourself some hard questions, regretting some of the 15,000 calories you’ve taken in over the past three days, and maybe thinking about taking some positive steps in cleaning up the mess that is your life. How about a V100 multivitamin? 100 pills for $59.99 (plus shipping). They’re endorsed by Wes Welker. Look it up.

Advocare--helping you get off your candy ass

Anyway, the SEC makes this pick easy. Just take Georgia. Their defense is bad, but Rene Curran should shut down the scrambling QB for A&M. And UGA’s defense isn’t as bad as A&M’s.

Reason to pick UGA: In memory of UGA VII.

Reason to pick A&M: In memory of being able to stop an offense.

Reason to watch: To learn more about Advocare’s fine products.

Pick: UGA

Champs Sports Bowl–The U vs. Wisconsin (Dec. 29) Line Miami-3

Am I the only one who has that song they use in the “30for30″ campaign documenting the 1980’s Miami teams stuck in my head? “The U, it’s all about the U!”…I mean, you can’t write about the U without that song going through your head.

Wisconsin played in this game last year and were beaten soundly. The ACC has won this game for 5 years in a row. Unfortunately, Miami is Headcase U. Remember when Jacory Harris was the leading Heisman candidate?

Remember when I said to take the underdog? That rule doesn’t apply to the Big 10.

Reason to pick Miami: It’s all about the U.

Reason to pick against Miami: It’s no longer really about the U.

Reason to watch: To see which team took advantage of the numerous theme parks in the greater Orlando area.

Pick: Miami

Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl–Bowling Green vs. Idaho (Dec. 30) Line: Bowling Green-1

I know what you’re thinking: I haven’t heard of Roady’s. They are actually the nation’s largest chain of truck stops. Sounds like a chafe you develop on a car trip: “I’ve got a terrible case of the roadies.”

Anyway, boring sponsor, boring game. Played in the coldness of Boise on the blue field. If you watch this game for any extended period of time, start asking yourself some tough questions. Maybe Roady’s will inspire you to take on a life on our nation’s highways. Just you, some beef jerky, satellite radio, and a long stretch of road. You can make some positive changes in your life. And Roady’s will be there for you, even if you get a case of the roadies.

The holidays wouldn't be complete without a boring game from the blue field of Boise stadium...

I could give you some good reasons why Bowling Green is going to win. But I could do a lot of things.

Reason to pick Bowling Green: MAC is better than the WAC.

Reason to pick against Idaho: “Vandals” is actually the name of their mascot, but they didn’t earn it like Lane Kiffin’s team.

Reason to watch: To finally make some positive choices in your life.

Pick: Bowling Green

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl–Nebraska vs. Arizona (Dec. 30) Line: Arizona-2.5

Two big name programs, trying to get back to prominence. A big insurance company as the sponsor. This is what college football should look like. Get your damn popcorn ready. It’s Ndamajdkdlai Suh’s last game for crying out loud.

The coaches on these teams are both loud, overbearing lunatics. Conferences are even, slight edge to the Pac-10. You know Nebraska’s defense is great and their offense is terrible. It’s Suh’s last game. Unfortunately for Suh, Arizona doesn’t care about running. Their quarterback is decent. They won’t beat themselves and they should win.

Reason to take Arizona: They aren’t terrible

Reason to take Nebraska: Suh

Reason to watch: To see if the broadcast team creates a “Suh vs. Shamu” segment at SeaWorld in San Diego.

Pick: Arizona

Aight, that takes it to the New Year’s Eve games. Part III will kick off with the Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl. Get prepared. JB

As all Gamecock fans know by now, South Carolina was selected to travel to Birmingham, Alabama for the Papajohns.com Bowl.  The opponent drawn for them was the Connecticut Huskies.

The Huskies played a good number of tough teams on the road to their 7-5 record, including North Carolina, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Cincinnati.

The key matchup to watch in the Papajohns.com Bowl is not between two individuals, but Connecticut running back and kickoff returner Jordan Todman versus the Gamecocks’ special teams.

Todman has totaled 1812 total yards this season, which is good enough for 23^rd in the nation.  He has breakaway speed with an ability to burst into the hole, both from the backfield on in the return game.  During returns, he has the ability to break around to the outside, but has a knack for getting up-field in a hurry.  He is a smart returner that brings the toughness of a running back to the equation.  He could prove to be trouble for South Carolina’s players.

The special teams play for the Gamecocks has been the Achilles tendon all season.  The problems begin with the leg of kickoff specialist Adam Yates.  Yates has a problem getting the ball past the ten-yard line, which gives the returner a shorter field.  The next problem comes from the coverage team closing lanes.  South Carolina’s kickoff coverage gives up 24.57 yards per return, which puts them at 108^th in the nation.  They have also given up three touchdowns, one to Brandon Boykin of Georgia, one to Warren Norman of Vanderbilt and the final to Clemson’s CJ Spiller.

If Jordan Todman is able to hit lanes quickly and break up field South Carolina could be in trouble.  If the Gamecocks’ special teams can contain him, they should win comfortably.

The Huskies offense is simply no match for the strength and speed of the Gamecocks defense.  South Carolina’s offense will also have the advantage over UConn’s defense that gives up over 380 yards and 25 points per game.  The Huskies will need to have a phenomenal game on special teams to be able to come away with a victory.

Read the arguments from Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer about which games they believe will be the best of THIS weekend.

This argument is a non-starter for me. The two conference’s poor performance on the national stage has nothing to do with each other. However, here we are in early December approaching championship weekend and one of those conferences is sprinting to the finish, and the other is downtrodden, wounded, and limping to the regular season’s finish. The ACC has a four loss Clemson team facing a two loss Georgia Tech team. Both are coming off of emotional losses to an archrival. The Big East, on the other hand, features one team coming off of a loss to a rival in Pittsburgh, and an undefeated top five team in Cincinnati. The Big East certainly features the better game. In fact, it is the best game of THIS weekend.

Maybe TSD will get more fodder with a Big East-ACC champion BCS bowl matchup. That would help generate a new debate. I’ll put in a word.

So, the team matchup is a good one, but so is the coaching matchup. Everyone in the world has now heard the rumors about Brian Kelly’s affair with Tiger Woods. Er, rather, Brian Kelly’s possible departure to South Bend to coach the Fighting Irish next season. A win is good for Cincinnati and good for Kelly. The winner of this game wins the championship in the Big East and is awarded a BCS berth and the hefty pay check that goes along with it. That would be a nice present to leave Cincinnati, should Brian Kelly be moving along to greener – and “golder” – pastures.

Once the BCS selection show occurs on Sunday – depending on what happens with Florida, Alabama, and Texas – Cincinnati may also back its way in to the national title game, as well. It is not a lock, but it is not unreasonable, either. Ask another team from Ohio, Ohio State. A Big East win from Pitt over highly ranked West Virginia late in the season helped secure a spot in the title game for the Buckeyes just a few seasons ago.

Cincinnati has a lot riding on this game. But, after all of this ancillary stuff, there is also an actual GAME to be played between two teams that are both excellent and that both create matchup problems for the other.

Pitt has been tough to figure out this season. Wins over solid teams (not great, but solid) like Navy, Notre Dame, Connecticut, and South Florida are nice. But, a close win over a mercurial team like Rutgers is perplexing, as is the loss to one of the more awful teams in the ACC at North Carolina State, and the vaunted defense giving up 27 points to Buffalo. Not to mention the team is coming off of a tough, emotional loss to its rival in the Backyard Brawl. Plus, Pitt has yet to play a ranked team this season. On the surface it appears as though the Panthers are going to get clobbered by the unbeaten Cincinnati.

But, Pitt does seem to have a good defense. The Panthers’ defense is second in conference allowing less than 18 points per game and a second-best 208 yards per game passing. The Panthers will need those defensive numbers to remain solid, too. They face a Cincinnati team that leads the Big East in just about every offensive category.

The best matchup of the game is Pitt’s defense against Cincinnati’s vaunted passing offense, which is led by healthy quarterback Tony Pike and AFCA First Team All-American receiver Mardy Ginyard. Pike, despite missing three entire games, is still second in the Big East in passing yards. Ginyard is second in the conference with over 1,000 yards receiving already and nearly 100 yards per game along with being one of only two pass catchers in the conference with 10 touchdowns.

Pitt has a good offense, and Cincinnati has suspect defense, ranking near the bottom of the conference thanks to giving up nearly 350 yards of offense per game.

Bottom line, if you like offense you will like this game (are you reading this Loyal Homer?). Defenses may make a couple of big plays here and there, but the main story of the game revolves around which team will get the ball last.

Oh, and it is supposed to snow. Bonus! It will be interesting to see if the conditions will slow either team down. My seasoned gut says no.

This game has plenty going on the field and off it. It is also on at 12n, so it doesn’t conflict with the other more talked about games my colleagues are putting pen to paper about. As far as dramatic sports stories, it is hard to top all of the craziness and drama around this game. For on and off the field reasons, this is the best game of THIS weekend.

Brian Kelly should be the next football coach at Notre Dame. He is exactly what the Fighting Irish need right now.

(Give me a moment to recover from that opening statement. I can’t believe I just wrote those words.)

Two years ago, I never would have endorsed the Cincinnati football coach for anything – especially not a major promotion to South Bend and the land of Touchdown Jesus. Two years ago, I basically thought Brian Kelly was . . . a jerk.

Kelly and I first met in July 2007 at Big East Conference media day in Newport, R.I. You might say we got off on the wrong foot. It was Kelly’s fault, he embarrassed me, and I didn’t appreciate it. Hate is a strong word, so I’d never say I felt hatred toward Kelly. But I certainly didn’t like him much until I figured out his actions had nothing to do with me. I was just one piece in a complicated chess game and Kelly had planned one of his biggest moves before that interview session in Newport.

It’s funny how things work out. Kelly’s behavior that day ticked me off, but now it’s the foundation of my argument that he could turn things around at Notre Dame.

The Cincinnati Enquirer hired me as a stringer to report the news from that media day. It was a cost-cutting measure, but Kelly wasn’t interested in the economic woes of the newspaper industry. The only thing important to him was that not a single Cincinnati media outlet – print, TV, radio or online – had sent a staff member to cover the event.

The Bearcats were conference loners in that distinction. Kelly, making his debut as Cincinnati coach, decided he needed to send a message.

And it wasn’t going to be a postcard of Newport harbor.

When the question-and-answer period began, I was the first one to the Cincinnati table. I introduced myself to Kelly, told him I was representing the Enquirer, and he promptly told me he wouldn’t answer my questions. He said something about my credibility and I have to admit I was stunned and confused. I just wanted to do my job and I had never experienced anything like this.

I pressed on, not sure if he had been joking or what. I tried to ask about his offensive philosophy. That’s when it became clear he was serious. By this time others were listening. Some of my peers at the Connecticut table had turned their attention to the confrontation. Other reporters had gathered around the Cincinnati table and instead of awkward silence, they went on with their questions.

“We’re going to make it clear that if you want to review the movie, you’ve got to go see it,” Kelly said. “If you’re going to be a credible source of information, you need to be around those that are in the know. Don’t tell me you don’t have the budget. Don’t tell me that you’re on vacation. You’re either in or you’re out as a credible source.”

The little stunt worked to perfection. He didn’t need to talk about his starting lineup, the philosophy he was bringing with him from Central Michigan, or the need for improved practice facilities. His priority that day was getting everyone’s attention and he did.

Soon, attention was definitely paid.

In Newport, Kelly did tell me not to take it personally, but of course I did. It’s never good when a writer becomes the story but I guess I was. Well, actually, Brian Kelly was the story and soon I heard about the columns that were written back in Cincinnati. And I heard about the discussions on talk radio. Kelly had made the Bearcats relevant in the local media again and it was only July.

Prepare to hear Brian Kelly’s name a lot this week. He is at the center of a very exciting weekend in college football. Every update on Notre Dame’s coaching search will include a mention of Kelly until he says he is not a candidate – and you will notice he has not done that yet. On Saturday, the Bearcats put their 11-0 record on the line against Pittsburgh. Kelly says his team is focused on Pitt and trying to win a second consecutive Big East title. If the Bearcats win they will likely play in the Sugar Bowl, one year after a trip to the Orange Bowl. If they win and Nebraska somehow knocks off Texas in the Big 12 championship game, the Bearcats could rise up in the BCS standings and find themselves playing Florida or Alabama in the national championship game in Pasadena, Jan. 7.

In that case, would Kelly be coaching the Bearcats or would he be with Notre Dame at the GMAC Bowl? That’s a tough decision.

Kelly is an Irish Catholic and from Boston. (Not part of the job description, but it has to help.) He’s the son of an alderman and has dabbled in politics. The death of Sen. Ted Kennedy earlier this year hit him hard. He worked that Big East media day in Newport like he was running for election. He has revitalized a dormant fan base in his short time at Cincinnati. His spread offense turned the Bearcats into the best college team in Ohio. The development of quarterbacks Tony Pike and Zach Collaros has to rank as one of the top coaching jobs this season. The man can coach and handle all the PR responsibilities too.

At Big East media day at Newport this past summer, I went straight to the Cincinnati table again. I shook Kelly’s hand, told him I was working for SI.com, and asked if he would talk to me.

“I can talk to you all day,” Kelly said, sounding like a true politician. Then he stood up and summoned his director of sports communications to take a picture of him flanked by Enquirer reporter Bill Koch and me. That brought a round of laughter from everyone who remembered what happened in 2007.

Something tells me Kelly won’t be in Newport next year. Cincinnati will miss him, but Notre Dame needs him. And I guarantee you the Irish won’t find a better fit.

2010 BCS Bowls projections

I know I wrote on this earlier, but that was based on what was happening then… and oddly, after a week or so, not too much has changed, but that will DEFINIATELY change this weekend. So let’s talk on this for a bit.

Now, for those that don’t quite understand all about the BCS, I am right there with ya, but we can at least talk on some theories. I am not saying I know it all, but I am a big fan of college football, so we are in the same boat.

Now, to begin, let’s remember that there are FIVE bowls in the BCS. One is the National Championship, which takes the top two teams in the nation by BCS scores, and leaves the other four to at large teams, with some exceptions. We will get to that in a moment.

What is important to also know is the ORDER of the bowls for 2010, because the order determines who picks first. The first order is always the National Championship, but after that it differs. This year, 2010, the order is Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Notice something missing? Rose Bowl? That’s because the Rose Bowl isn’t interested in the BCS to mix their “tradition” with the others, they want to keep their Pac-10 and Big 10 rival cemented. So they are not “in the mix”, although they really are.

So, if we were to look at who was going to the BCS, and the other major bowls, lets first determine, at this very moment, who the top 12 teams are…because that is important:

In order, they are: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State and Georgia Tech. Following them are LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. And for good measure, we throw in the next three, being Oregon, Miami and Houston.

From this list we can put together our theory about who will be going where. Now, even though we are using theory, we still have to make a slight assumption, one I will get to in a sec.

So let’s start first with the National Championship…who is going to the BCS Championship?

The natural assumption is to take the #1 and #2 teams, in this case being Florida and Alabama…but right off the bat this isn’t accurate. The problem is that both teams are from the SEC, and we all know that they must play each other in the SEC Championship… one team will lose, and fall out.

For the sake of argument let us assume that Florida wins, just the assumption that #1 beats #2. IF we go with that, then we can project Florida in the National Championship against the #3 team, Texas. Now, I know Texas still has to play in their Big 12 Championship just as Florida and Alabama must play in their conference championship but we are just going with the idea that those two SEC teams must eliminate one from the conversation. So the BCS Championship in theory would be Florida and Texas.

Now, after that, things get a little hairy.

Once the National Championship has been determined, a lot of clauses kick in, one being the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl gets to select their teams, and because they stick with their tradition, they will take the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions. But this can be misleading.

On the BCS rankings, they have Iowa as the best Big 10 team…but it is Ohio State that will be going to the Rose Bowl, which in theory knocks out the #10 team for the #11 team. This already creates some chaos because the idea in the BCS bowls was to get the top 10 teams in, and this has already been disrupted.

So Ohio State is in, bumping out Iowa. What about the Pac-10? Oregon finishes as the best team in the Pac-10, but USC is ranked at #9, while Oregon is ranked #13… Oh my.

So the Rose Bowl has, in theory, already screwed up the system, because two of the top 10 teams in the nation are snubbed initially for a BCS bowl. So let’s recap a bit:

BCS Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State vs. #13 Oregon.

Hmm, sounds odd already.

Now, after those two bowls, we can get into the order of selections. Remember, this year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. So the Orange Bowl gets to select who they want in their bowl in Florida.

Now, just as the Rose Bowl must take the champions of the Pac-10 and Big-10, there are other contracts that must be upheld. The Orange Bowl has a contract with the ACC, meaning they MUST take the ACC Champion unless they are in the National Championship. Since neither Florida or Texas is an ACC team, that means they must take whoever wins the ACC Championship…which at this moment would be either Georgia Tech or Clemson.

Now this is interesting because even though Georgia Tech is ranked #7, Clemson is not on that top 15 list. It would be very embarrassing if a team NOT in the top 15 goes to a BCS bowl. For sake of argument, let us assume that the higher ranked team would win, in this case, Georgia Tech (just like we did the SEC Championship with Florida and Alabama). If this was the case, then Georgia Tech would go to the Orange Bowl because that is the contract with the ACC. It would then leave the Orange Bowl to have the first selection of the remaining teams.

To me, that gives them one of four realistic choices: Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Once we get into any bowl outside of the National Championship, I think it comes do contracts and ticket sales. With that being the case, we also know that you stand a better chance most times in selling tickets if the teams are closer to the bowl. For that reason, I don’t think Boise State would go to the Orange Bowl…just too far to travel. The same could also be said for TCU to some degree. Would the Orange Bowl take Cincinnati…absolutely. How about Alabama? Absolutely! Either would be a great pick, but the charm of being undefeated might mean more dollars than a nearby SEC school. So I think the Orange Bowl might take a Georgia Tech/ Cincinnati matchup. That means you have a #5 vs. a #7…which isn’t that bad.

That leaves two bowls left, and the Fiesta Bowl has next shot.

With the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, and with the next two picks, there are a few things this bowl has to keep in mind. One, they have a contractual obligation to the Big 12 conference, and they have to look at location, just like the Orange Bowl. But one of the clauses kicks in here, in that IF a Big 12 team is in the National Championship, then the Fiesta Bowl is free to select any other team. And since Texas, a Big 12 team, is in the championship (as per our theory) that leaves the Fiesta Bowl to take two teams.

So in theory, they could take the two highest ranked teams left, which would be TCU, a one loss Alabama, or Boise State. Now immediately you might think that pitting TCU and Boise State would be simplicity, but I beg to differ. Granted this would be a good game, but we saw that game last year. To sell tickets, the bowl may need to give the fans a unique game, not one just held a year ago. Heck, some people got tired of the USC/Ohio State games, so it makes some sense.

I think TCU has the inside track for the Fiesta Bowl, and it would be against either Boise State or Alabama. For sake of not getting a repeat, I think that the Fiesta Bowl would entertain the TCU/Alabama game because it puts a non BCS against a top ranked BCS school…but the temptation to have two undefeated teams could sway them to go with TCU/Boise State. Personally, I think they will drop Boise State for Alabama.

So let’s recap again:

BCS National Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas…
(theory being if Alabama loses and Texas wins, Texas will be #2)

Orange Bowl ACC Champion Georgia Tech (7) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East Champs)
(theory being if GA Tech beats Clemson and Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh)

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State (Big 10 Champs) vs. #13 Oregon (Pac 10 Champs)

Fiesta Bowl #4 TCU (Mountain West Champs) vs. Alabama (SEC Runner up)

That brings us to the final BCS Bowl, the Sugar Bowl. They get the last two picks, but they have a clause too. They must, by contract, take the SEC Champion, but since Florida is the SEC Champs and in the BCS Championships, they are free to take two teams, just like the Fiesta Bowl.

If things go like we discussed, then the highest ranked team still available would be Boise State. For sake of having an undefeated team, the Sugar Bowl will take them… but there may be a question to how well Boise State travels. I mean, New Orleans isn’t a hop, skip and jump away. But still, it is a logical choice of the remaining teams.

So who will the Boise State Broncos play?

There are still several choices based on the remaining teams on that top 15 ranking, but right off the bat, we can eliminate Houston. Just not strong enough to make a good matchup with Boise State. This leaves LSU, USC, Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami.

The logical choice is by far LSU, but this brings in another clause…one that prevents LSU from playing in New Orleans. By rule, no conference can put in more than two teams out of their own conference in the BCS Bowls. Remember that LSU is a SEC school…so are Florida and Alabama. This means that in theory, LSU would not, COULD NOT, play in the Sugar Bowl.

That leaves USC, which is probably too far to travel. Then you may have to look at Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami. If we can assume that Cincinnati is undefeated, then it also means they beat Pittsburgh, which knocks them out of the picture. So this leaves Boise State to play either Iowa or Miami…which would sell more tickets?

Iowa is ranked #10, and Miami currently #14, so that might be the choice, but who travels better? Better traveling means more ticket sales. I think the Big 10 does well in traveling, after all, if they can get to Pasadena, they can surely get to New Orleans. I think Iowa plays Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.

So there you have it, the 10 teams selected in the BCS bowls. Of the top 10 teams, LSU and USC will miss out, and will play in lesser bowls. We shall see. Remember, all this is theory at the moment, just to give you an idea of how this might work out. The truth comes this weekend when many of these teams play their conference championships and final regular season games…

2010 Orange Bowl

A quick blog about this year’s Orange Bowl, because it might have some interesting bits about it.

This year, or season if you will, the Orange Bowl has the top spot of the BCS bowls, meaning they get to select first the teams they want to play in their bowl AFTER the BCS Championship is made. I want to take a moment to say how tasteless the ROSE BOWL is acting, where they continue to get what they want without working with the other 3 bowls. Jerks.

Anyway, to give you an idea of who could be playing in that Orange Bowl, consider first that the selection process begins AFTER the BCS is determined. Now we know at this moment Florida and Alabama both are 1 and 2, but we know that will change because they must play each other. (let’s not also forget they both had QUESTIONABLE calls to keep them undefeated…)

But for sake of argument, lets assume Alabama loses to Florida in the SEC Championship. If so then it is safe to assume Texas plays Florida in the BCS Championship, right. So how does that affect the Orange Bowl?

Once that game is set, the Orange Bowl gets to pick the two teams it would like in their bowl game. But because of the Rose Bowl, they can’t touch the best Pac-10 and Big 10, because they are obligated to the Rose bowl. This would take out Oregon and Ohio State…at this moment.

So now the Orange Bowl has its pick of everybody else, including Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State and Alabama. But here is a tricky part…they are contractually obligated to the ACC Champion…which at this moment could be Georgia Tech.

Now that is not a bad choice, since GA Tech is in the mix for the top 10, but the Orange Bowl would be losing some power by taking a #7 team when it can have a #4 vs. #5. So the Orange bowl has to find an opponent for Georgia Tech.

They would likely have some good options with TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State, or even Alabama. None of those schools are obligated anywhere else, so the Orange Bowl would love to have any of those. But I don’t see them picking Boise State, they are just too far out there to guarantee heavy ticket sales… and yes folks, it is about the money for these bowls. I wonder if TCU might be a stretch as well. To me, I think the Orange Bowl might try to snatch undefeated Cincinnati to make this a very good game. By doing that, they might actually do the Sugar and Fiesta bowls a favor, allowing the Fiesta to take EITHER Boise or TCU (not both, since they played last year).

So right now, it looks like the Orange Bowl could be Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati… if all holds out.

2010 Fiesta Bowl

It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:

If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.

The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.

Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.

This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.

We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.

So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.

The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.

Now since this is about the Fiesta bowl, we know they pick AFTER the Orange bowl…but there are some complications. The Fiesta bowl is normally obligated to take the Big 12 Champion…UNLESS that same team is in the National Championship. If that happens, then they are free to take anyone else. Since Texas is (in this example) in the BCS Title game, they can pick any other two teams (minding you that they can’t pick Oregon or Ohio State because of the Rose Bowl.

It is quite likely that the Orange Bowl will take Georgia Tech because they must take the ACC champs, and it might be quite desirable that they will also take Cincinnati, because they are undefeated and nearer to the site of the Orange Bowl (Florida) than TCU or Boise State. If such is the case, who then would the Fiesta Bowl take?

I believe the Fiesta would have a choice of three teams…TCU, Boise State and Alabama. Two are undefeated (TCU and BSU), but you have a quality team in Alabama, and you know they travel well. I could see the Fiesta Bowl taking Alabama, because I am not so sure they want to take a repeat of TCU/Boise State…after all they played last year.

So I think either TCU or Boise State would be out, but can you ignore a bowl with two undefeated teams? This puts the Fiesta Bowl in a tough spot. A TCU/Alabama game would be nice, but so would a Boise State/Alabama game. I think if all things being equal, I think TCU and Alabama would be their choice. Alabama played the tougher schedule and is indeed better with one loss than Boise State with none, and TCU has the tough schedule to prove they are better than Boise State.

So that’s who I see in the Fiesta at this moment, TCU and Alabama.

2010 Sugar Bowl

It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Sugar Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:

If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.

The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.

Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.

This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.

We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.

So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.

The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.

So this year the Sugar Bowl is the last of the BCS bowl games to select who they wish to play in their bowl. This in theory says they should pick the #9 and #10 teams on the BCS standings, right? Wrong. That’s not how it works.

If we take a guess at who may be going where, we can assume at least at the moment that Florida plays Texas in the BCS Championship. That takes care of the SEC and Big 12 Conferences.

We assume that the Rose Bowl will take Oregon and Ohio State, taking care of the Pac-10 and Big 10 Conferences.

We believe the Orange Bowl, since it has the first selections of the remaining three bowls, will take Georgia Tech because they are contracted to take the ACC Champs, and will likely take Cincinnati for a great matchup.

That would take care of the ACC and Big East. So technically, all the major conferences are satisfied. But the BCS must also give a spot to the best non-BSC school, in this case, TCU.

Because the Fiesta Bowl picks next, they are normally obligated to take a Big 12 school, but with Texas in the BCS Title game, they are no longer bound to that. We think the Fiesta Bowl will take TCU and likely Alabama, and pass up on Boise State because BSU and TCU played in a bowl last year.

If this is the case, then the last of the major bowls would be the Sugar Bowl. They are normally contracted to have the SEC Champions, but with Florida in the BCS, they are no longer bound to that. They could select anyone they want…which brings in Boise State.

Ideally the Sugar Bowl would love to have Alabama, because it is closer for them, and it brings the SEC familiarity to the bowl game. But if Fiesta takes Alabama, then the Sugar Bowl has to consider who it wants…and most likely it would be Boise State. The question is if the fans can travel from Idaho to Louisiana…it is a bit further than Arizona.

The Sugar Bowl could take Boise State and one other team…how about LSU? That would be a great game, to have Boise State and LSU, or maybe Boise State plays Pittsburgh? But the assumption here is that Boise State is the lock, as I believe they should be, but is it more tempting to have LSU play Pittsburgh? Can Boise State draw in the east? That would be pretty interesting.

But if I had to put money on it, I would think the Sugar Bowl would take Boise State and SEC friend LSU.

Is ESPN Pushing for Boise State?

You know, I am as much a fan of the underdog as anybody else, my college is from the Southern Conference, and we have been underdogs for quite some time. And I understand in college football how so many like to pull for teams like TCU and Boise State because the could “crash” the BCS…but I gotta tell ya, some of this is getting down right stupid.

Why does ESPN and the guys there seem to feel that it is so righteous for Boise State to be in a National Championship? Again, I am not against BSU, but so often we try to force a situation without taking a hard look at the things around it.

Let’s get this straight right now folks, and we can debate this until eternity… Boise State is NOT the best team in college football…undefeated or not. They are also NOT the second best either. They are very good but NOT the best. It seems like it is getting to the point where Boise State is asking everybody to pity them, so they can either force a playoffs or be considered for the National Championship. But there are a lot of glaring problems with that.

First off, their schedule.

I said months ago and I say again, if you want to BE a champion, play a schedule like one. BSU can’t help the WAC schedule, but they CAN help games like UC Davis and Miami Ohio….BSU knew they needed to play a tougher schedule than that, and they choose not to. That’s their fault. Consider folks, TCU right now has a strong upper hand over Boise State for the Non-BCS team in the big bowls. And rightly so.

IF Boise State had scheduled maybe Colorado or some Big 12 team instead of UC Davis, and maybe Minnesota or Illinois instead of Miami OH, this would seem a stronger schedule. It is that strength of schedule that is hurting them. And don’t tell me that a perfect record is a worth a title shot alone…does ANYBODY remember Ball State from last year? Weren’t they like 12-0…what happened to them?

I thought so.

Second, the media keeps talking about “BCS Busters”. Technically that term isn’t accurate. The NCAA came up with 5 bowls, one being the National Championship, the other 4 available to the best of the BCS conferences, and a guaranteed slot for one of the other conferences that performs well. This means that there is a slot for a team like TCU and/or Boise State…meaning you are not BUSTING in anything. You have permission to enter IF you qualify. This year, at this very moment, TCU qualifies…and so does Boise State.

So IF these teams have qualified, they are not “Busting” in anything. Last night ESPN had the WAC Commissioner during the Boise State/Utah State game to try to get him to plead his case for Boise State. Personally I saw no need for him to do that, in my opinion, Boise State is CLEARLY in, if they are the #6 team in the nation. They WILL get a BCS bowl, but why was the guys for ESPN trying to create a controversy that they MIGHT not get in. This is foolishness and ignorance created by ESPN to stir the pot.

The WAC Commissioner made a point that Boise State ought to be considered because they demonstrated that the fans can travel, as in the case to the Fiesta Bowl… now folks, that was in Arizona, right? Check your maps and see how far Boise State is from Arizona….

That isn’t really saying so much, is it?

The selling point here seemed to be that Boise State can travel anywhere…I disagree. Remember folks, these bowls want teams that travel VERY well, or teams closer to the bowl. For that reason, I just can’t see Boise State in any circumstances going to the Orange Bowl…if I was a member of the Orange Bowl committee, I am just not convinced that they can travel in large numbers from Boise to Florida. Besides, I also think they deserve a better game than against Georgia Tech, you’d like to pit BSU against another undefeated team, right?

As it stands right now, before the games start, we can fairly assume that the Florida/Alabama winner will play Texas in the National Championship. Let’s just assume it will be Florida for the sake of argument. That means the National Championship is set, leaving the other 4 bowls.

We know the Rose Bowl will punk out and get their traditional teams, in this case the Pac 10 vs. Big 10. At this moment it looks like Oregon/Ohio State. So to this point, you have your SEC, Big 12, Big 10 and Pac 10 satisfied.

The Orange Bowl has a contractual commitment to the ACC, so Georgia Tech goes there. That makes 5 slots filled. This leaves the last 5 slots to Cincinnati as the Big East Champs, (at this point in time), TCU, Boise State, Alabama and one other team.

If it goes as I think it can, I think the Sugar Bowl will take Alabama, because it is closer to home. The Fiesta Bowl COULD take TCU and Boise State…but this could be a problem because they played last year… a repeat might not sell as well. So it might be hip for the Fiesta Bowl to take Cincinnati and TCU, and hope that Cincinnati can travel to the desert.

This could make a Sugar Bowl matchup with Alabama and Boise State, which would be interesting, leaving one slot open for the Orange Bowl. This brings in two other teams, LSU and Pittsburgh. Either could work, but if Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati, then LSU could be the obvious choice, also being a little closer to Florida. After all the fans of LSU are familiar with Florida having played the Gators anyway….Pittsburgh could say the same about playing South Florida.

So in all this, not once has Boise State been excluded from the BCS Bowls. They are in at this moment, and squarely in. I think the Fiesta Bowl might not take them to play TCU because it is a show we have seen before, so Boise State COULD be snubbed from there to the Sugar Bowl…but I gotta tell ya, that sounds like a good bowl to me, an Alabama/Boise State game.

So all this yapping about ESPN trying to champion a cause…come on you guys, get off that. You don’t need to make a case for BSU, they are in the BCS. Stop creating the news, and just report it!

Something to snack on while you’re putting on your game face…

• This-season-is-boring meme continues, as Burnt Orange Nation can’t get its hate on.
• That’s not a problem for those of us who follow SEC football.
• Speaking of officiating, last night’s West Virginia-Cincinnati game demonstrated that the SEC isn’t the only conference with replay officials who have trouble understanding the meaning of the word “indisputable”.
• Another tender look back on what it was like to be the youngest Clausen.  We’ll all miss Master James when he’s gone.
• Would it be safer to play football without helmets?

My NEW BCS Top 8

I know the real BCS scores are out, and right now if you are an undefeated team, you are on that top 10 list easily, but there are also a few one-loss teams that are making a statement to try to get to that BCS Championship.

As I speak there are still technically MANY teams that can fight for that Championship game. To be truthful, at this moment if you have one loss, you are still in the mix IF you are in a BCS conference.

For example, from the ACC there is still Georgia Tech with one loss. You have Pittsburgh with one loss from the Big East, and Penn State from the Big 10. LSU still has one loss in the SEC, while Oregon remains with only one loss from the first game of their season. And although they are not a BCS Conference, I give Utah a nod too because the Mountain West Conference is as tough as most of the BCS conferences this year.

But because Oregon defeated USC in a major game, I would, at least for the moment, make them the best one loss team in the nation, and include them in my list of the top 8…this is temporary, because I have not run other teams through my NEW BCS formula. I only did the 7 undefeated teams and Oregon. So for the moment, I have my top 8 teams, based on my formula.

#8 Oregon (291 points): This is premature, because I have not run the other one loss teams through my formula, but I will give them the TEMPORARY benefit of the doubt for this spot because they knocked off USC, which was a major win. But because they have played a lot of the bottom feeders of the Pac-10, this could be with mixed reviews.

#7 Boise State (300 points): You see here how a BCS team with one loss is almost as good as a team from a weak conference like Boise State? To their credit, they have won every game, including beating Oregon, but when your WAC schedule turns weak as water, there isn’t much respect that one can give over the other teams. Beating one great team is awesome, but to be a BCS Champ, you gotta beat more than one a year.

#6 Cincinnati (303 points): Only 3 points make the difference between Cincinnati and Boise State, and the strength of schedule favors Cincinnati. Granted, both teams are seen as underdogs, but if the Bearcats can get that big game with Pittsburgh without them losing another game, it would clearly validate them over Boise State…still gotta win to get there though.

#5 TCU (311 points): TCU to me is coming out of a better and stronger conference at the moment than Cincinnati. Having Utah, BYU and Air Force makes a pretty tough conference, not to take anything away from the Big East. But the formula also shows that this TCU team has a very good defense, and they do have 2 quality wins over top 25 teams, as opposed to one by Boise State or Cincinnati.

#4 Florida (326 points): The difference between Florida and the two teams above them is only 5 points…this is razor thin. But you can easily guess one of those teams above Florida, and if both go undefeated, they would meet in the SEC Championship… as I said on other blogs, this is a problem that will solve itself.

#3 Alabama (331 points): Alabama is by my stats the best defensive team on the list, and this is what helped them lock in this spot. But some wonder how good this team is, and we will learn everything this weekend when LSU plays Alabama. If they get by LSU, we expect a date with Florida in the SEC Championships. Few will argue that the winner goes to the BCS Championship.

#2 Texas (332 points): Slimmest of margins make Texas almost a shoe in for the BCS Championship. The Big 12 isn’t as dangerous as it was last year, and Texas has no equal. The next few games could be a walk in the park, but the Longhorns have to be careful not to slip up on games they are favored to win. Texas gets a bonus game in the Big 12 Championship, which if they win should remove any doubt as to them being either the best, or second best, in the nation.

#1 Iowa (342 points): Many wonder if Iowa could squeeze in the BCS if they go undefeated, and my formula has them as the best team in the nation…BUT there is an exception here. Iowa is the only team in this list with 9 games and 9 wins. That extra game gives them many more points above anyone with 8 wins. As you can see, they have 11 points more than Texas, who is number 2. But a couple of weeks ago when I started doing this, Iowa had about a 40 point lead, having played one more game than anybody else. What this may be showing is that as the season goes on, we learn the true strength of Iowa in that even after 9 wins, their hold on the number 1 spot is very small…and apparently shrinking.

So if the season ended now, one might assume that I am saying that Iowa and Texas plays in the National Championship…not really. Remember, Iowa has played more games at this point than anybody else, and is benefiting from that advantage. All things being equal, it seems to boil back down to Texas vs. the likely winner of the Alabama/Florida SEC championship …but that is only if Alabama gets by LSU.

And what if Iowa beats Ohio State?

What if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh?

So many questions…but all will be told in time….

The HORROR of College Football

Halloween is upon us, and with it comes the fear that over 100 teams fear to embrace…that there are guarantees in life…one is the demise of a season.

And all teams choose to play a game…much like Jigsaw imposes on his victims…knowing that few, if any are designed to succeed.

And so most fail.

Halloween brings the horror already realized, and the horrors of those realized on All Saints Day, and yet it also delays the feared ending of some, where their seasons come to a quick and correct ending…with no sequel in sight.

This season was nothing but a ruse to many teams, knowing that there are many teams designed to fail…to be fodder, for the greater cause. But let us take a moment to look at this horror movie and sort out the victims….for we know there will be many.

If there is a real Camp Crystal Lake, it will indeed resemble the ACC. As many contenders as sequels, and a body count to match. The ACC continues to slay one another as mindlessly as the next batch of campers find their way to the lake, only to discover too late that their fate was already charted. The ACC had a chance to produce a “Jason” with Virginia Tech, but failed miserably…but word has it that Georgia Tech stands hidden in the forest, with a certain hockey mask.

Can we believe that THIS is the Jason the ACC needs to put fear in the BCS? We have seen this before, and lately the ACC has not put terror in any other conference. And victims this year seemed to have claimed Florida State, Clemson and Wake Forest, while Duke, NC State and Maryland lie at the bottom of the murky swamp.

Shall we fear Jason Yellow Jacket…or shall we look for another?

Haddonfield, seems to be a town hiding a terrible secret…much like that of the Big 10. On that fateful day, when Michael Myers began his terror, few knew, nor read the signs of what would happen, save only Dr. Loomis. Is this any different this year, with Iowa standing at the door of the BCS Championship? The mission for Myers was simple, to find and eradicate his family…which led to a long chase to find his sister… and dispose of her.

How similar can this be of Iowa and the last several games against Penn State, where there has been a grand and epic struggle, only to end in sad endings? But again, Iowa has hunted their quarry and defeated Penn State, but Ohio State may be the only thing keeping them from a BCS Championship. But Ohio State is flawed, much like the aged Dr. Loomis, who did all he could to thwart the actions of Myers. Can Ohio State prevent Iowa from their goal, or will Iowa take for granted the other “lesser” teams, and lose a chance at a most valued prize. Only Illinois has fallen under, as many other teams in the Big 10 can make a challenge. There are more sequels to come.

Beware if there is a moon out on Halloween night, for you never know who will change to a beastly werewolf…such is my warning to the Big 12. Was it not last year where at least 7 quarterbacks proved that they were NFL ready? Was there not six teams that were ranked in the top 25 through much of the year? But this year, not much noise has been made of the conference outside of Texas…and they look exposed.

Has the conference found silver bullets to destroy the Texas Werewolf? You DO know that silver can destroy a werewolf…just as one loss could be a deadly force against Texas’ bid to the BCS. But we have been fooled several times by their changes…who informed us that Colorado would be any better than last year…we were fools to buy that.

And who said that Nebraska was the fear of the town…nay, I saw no claws, fangs or body hair resembling a werewolf on these Huskers…I only saw mere men fall by the wayside. We have however, seen a great man fall in Oklahoma, and with it also went the dreams of the season. It would seem that only Oklahoma State remain to challenge Texas, and by doing such we shall see by the light of the full moon who is REALLY a werewolf… and who is not.

The house of Count Dracula may seem large, but only eight rooms are being used, and one may well be Count Dracula himself. From the grave the Big East was counted as nothing, as a slain evil, never to return. In fact, the beginning of the season there were no Big East teams ranked. Yet from the grave has risen one who bears the marks of Vlad Dracul…and yet there seems to be another.

Cincinnati at this moment is undefeated, and should they run the table, may say they should be in the BCS… but has there been enough “blood” sacrificed to validate this? Who has this team beaten that qualifies this as THE Count…rather than some other vampire who serves another?

Some say Pittsburgh holds the strings, and controls the scene from afar in the conference, and it is only a matter of time before the two meet…to settle once and for all who is the REAL Dracula. Yet consider this…is there a Val Helsing in the mists…. A West Virginia…or maybe a South Florida? Alas, it may well not be West Virginia, as news travels that they were recently slain by South Florida. It would then seem that either Cincinnati OR Pittsburgh is then the true Dracula…but are either strong enough to force themselves into the BCS?

A classic John Carpenter movie, “The Fog”, was about a curse that was laid upon a hapless town on the 100th anniversary of the founding of their town….some might say there is such a “fog” or even “curse” upon the SEC in the recent rumors of less than professional officiating.

More than once has such wickedness cost a team a win, one that Georgia can clearly testify to. In the movie, the curse came because the town lied to a ship of lepers that wanted to make a home near their town, in exchange for much gold. The townsfolk swore on the deal…took the gold…but destroyed the lepers…thus the curse 100 years later.

Victims of greed we all can be of times, but at the expense of other teams in the SEC? Some say a curse will fall upon the SEC, as some say that the poor officiating was used in conspiracy to promote Florida and Alabama, to ensure a SEC remain in the BCS hunt. Others say there is a curse on the SEC for their apparent lack of hiring African American coaches…only ONE in their history…and yet they benefit so greatly from African American players….

What is in the fog of the SEC…most see Florida, maybe Alabama. I have heard some say it was Ole Miss, but I see no truth in that. There were rumors that Tennessee had risen from the depths of the sunken ship and reclaimed what was rightly theirs…we ALMOST saw that at the hands of Alabama, but the Crimson Tide bare escaped with their lives. It leads me to believe they won’t live much longer at that rate. But one could say the same for Florida as well….

There may well be an Elm Street in every state, but the Pac-10 stares at fear tangible in that they now must pray for access to the BCS Championship. With several teams out of BCS Conferences that are perfect, the PAC-10 has no hope of jumping over the likes of a perfect Florida, or Alabama or Texas. And with the East Coast Bias, most people never see these Pac-10 teams unless they play earlier in the day. Out of sight, out of mind…unless you are Freddy Krueger.

In the famed series of movies, the creature of the night would appear in a victim’s nightmare and claim them for his own…the Pac-10 would have to perform similar feats to put fear in the BCS, and force the nation to pay attention to them.

For on Halloween there will be a Nightmare on Elm Street when USC plays against Oregon, and everything is on the line. Both teams have one loss, and neither can afford another. Yet a game of this importance would certainly propel the winner into a greater chance of a BCS shot, right? It is critical that a Duck or Trojan becomes the nightmare of the BCS, and may have to make horrid work of their opponent to put fear in the voters of the polls. Trust me, you don’t want to sleep when this game comes on… especially those on the east coast.

We have discovered that Sleepy Hollow is more than a legend, it is a real place… the name has changed to the Mountain West Conference, and there have been rumors of not one…not two…but possibly THREE Headless horsemen roaming about.

I once heard there may have even been a fourth from the Air Force, but I am being told that this is not so true. It has been more confirmed that those Headless Horsemen come from TCU, Utah and BYU…U know what I mean by that…

These teams seek that which they have lost…respect. For their competitive conference, few give them a chance to actually be in the BCS, even if one goes undefeated. At this moment it remains to be only TCU, as both BYU and Utah have lost their heads earlier in the year. But because it was early, there is a chance…however slight, to get it back.

Will anyone take notice of the Mountain West Horseman as he rides through the night, looking for another victim? How many more will they have to defeat before the BCS acknowledges them as a real threat to the BCS?

And what is this I hear of this Hunchback that clamors about being better than anybody else? Who told this creature that they were the equal of the other teams simply because they have a nice record? Their best win so far this year was at home to Boston College, having lost games to USC and Michigan. Do not try to scare me with such stories from Notre Dame….win games against TOUGH opponents before you try to scare us.

And I have seen the parts being built for this Frankenstein they call Boise State. A powerful creature, with indeed a history of doing damage…but many say the parts are made of cheap material. A weak schedule with only ONE good win makes this a creature with great potential, but very flawed. We can see Boise State as much a contender to the BCS now as we can consider Frankenstein as equal to a human. Until Boise State schedules more quality opponents, we will continue to shun Boise State as the village shunned Frankenstein…which lead to his demise at the end.

I warn you, Halloween will bring many sad tidings for many. For some, the realization that there is no post season, for some, the realization that there is no conference championship, and for others, no BCS Bowl game. Hearts will be broken, spirits will be split…dreams will be shattered in the faces of tens of thousands.

There will be…losers….

(what did you think I was gonna say…it’s all in fun!)

Happy Halloween all, may your favorite team win!

The NEW BCS, OCT 29th version

The top 15

Again, if you have not read my blogs before, jump back a few and see how I came up with these numbers. It is NOT etched in stone but give some sense of validity rather than just having a bunch of dudes picking teams.

My NEW BCS is based on rewarding points for factors of the game, the most important being WINNING. I give 20 points for every game a team wins. But I award bonus points for other factors, such as winning at home, winning conference games, winning by certain amounts and so forth. I also award…or penalize a team if the teams on their schedule are above .500, even or below. I penalize teams that play a non Division I foe, whether they win OR lose.

Again, you’ll have to jump back to find the posts on what I am talking about, if you want I can go over it again in my next blog to explain some things. But until then, let’s count down my top 15:

#15 Utah 187 points: Folks, I gotta tell ya, the schedule Utah has played thus far is VERY poor, it is hard to put them in the ranks of the top 10 when more of their teams have losing records than anybody else. This is a heavy penalty that shows a weak strength of schedule. But there is still time to rise in the ranks, since the Mountain West is indeed a good conference this year.

#14 Virginia Tech 233 points: Two losses virtually destroys any chance to the BCS, and we all thought VA Tech was all that too. Consider this folks, this team has two losses, and still is better than Utah…if the Hokies had won one of those two games, they could easily have been in the top 10.

#13 Oklahoma State 234 points: That embarrassing loss to Houston must still be like mud in their face, but the difference between Oklahoma State and a top 10 is actually about 30 points. It’s just harder to compete at this moment with teams with 7 wins under their belt, so this could even out eventually.

#12 Oregon 235 points: This is odd because for a team with 1 loss, I have them outside the top 10. Why? Their strength of schedule takes some punch out of what they have done, although they have defeated two top 15 ranked teams. If you are looking at 6 win teams, this is one of the best, but compared to the undefeated teams, they fall behind a bit. Still plenty of time to get in the mix though.

#11 USC 261 points: Interesting, since they play this weekend against one another. Of my elite teams, I actually had USC ranked at the bottom at this period of time. This was out of my elite 8 teams, but after adding a few more teams on, I had to slide USC down even further. The margin of difference is slim, in fact they missed my top 10 by only 4 points, meaning this is by no means the end of the judgment.

#10 Cincinnati 265 points: This one is funny because I had them ranked much higher when I did the elite teams. But what may be showing is that even with a perfect record, Cincinnati still has to prove some things. Beating South Florida was their only mark, and it was a bottom 25 team. They need to run the tables to get real consideration and votes of confidence to play in that BCS Championship.

#9 TCU 271 points. Between ranks 6-11 only about 16 points separate these teams, meaning these are very close rankings. TCU has an advantage of 7 wins, but very slightly higher quality of wins and a good defense gives them some points as well. IF TCU runs the tables…are they for real?

#8 Penn State 273 points: The loss to Iowa hurts big time to Penn State, but they are only a handful of points off some better teams. Penn State can still make a game of this, if they can run the tables, but they would have to hope that Iowa loses a couple of times. Is it possible….who knows, but Penn State with a few more wins will be making a strong case for a one loss team.

#7 Pittsburgh 274 points: We see that this team is only one point better than Penn State, but that loss to NC State may have ruined a magical season. Like Cincinnati, this team suffers from a weaker schedule that could sooner catch up to them. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are rooting for one another, so that when they play, it will mean much more than just two Big East teams playing one another…it could lead to a BCS Championship.

#6 Boise State 277 points: Even at 7-0 this team could be in trouble for slipping further down in the rankings. Even if Boise State continues to win, the quality of their wins against a weaker schedule could count against them…it clearly is the case with Utah, it could be the same for Boise State. So again, is wins the ONLY thing that counts? Nope, not if you want to be a champion.

#5 Florida 284 points: In light of the SEC officials and stuff going on, and with Florida playing with injured players, and the close games, this is still the team to beat. I have this team here because they are clearly one of the best teams, but now some wonder about the true strength of the SEC, if officials are playing to the “better teams”. Keep in mind that a couple of the teams ahead of Florida have an extra game under their belt, so it should all even out in the wash.

#4 Georgia Tech 287 points: This one is a BIG surprise to me folks, and considering how the ACC beats each other up, I don’t see this standing long, but to this point I think Georgia Tech is one of the best teams in the nation. If you cannot stop their triple option, you will lose. I thought for sure that this was a simplistic strategy that was years out of date, but Georgia Tech is proving that if teams don’t study for it, they will get beat by it. Georgia Tech in the BCS Championship? I think it is still too early, but don’t completely rule that out.

#2 Iowa 310 points: Now understand, Iowa is here because YES they have a perfect record, but also because they have one more game ahead of most other teams. That one game pulls a lot of points. They are only about 12 points ahead of Georgia Tech and Texas, so as those teams even out their schedule, it will tell us the true story. Iowa still has Ohio State on the schedule, which many circle as THE key game for the entire Big 10…if Iowa wins that…it will create some REAL controversy for the BCS Championships.

#1 Alabama 326 points: Everything I said about Iowa…goes for Alabama. They have an extra game ahead of the other teams, and they came within a shade of losing to Tennessee. Is this team REALLY as good as they say. I wasn’t too convinced last year, and they have the advantage of several good home game wins, and a schedule that at the moment is pretty tough, but when things shake out, as they usually do, I am not too sure this team will stay where it is. But for now, they are here.

So, those are my NEW BCS top 15, with Virginia Tech playing UNC tonight, we shall see if that changes any. A win for Virginia Tech could vault them close to the top 10…who knows?

NEW BCS Standings, Oct 23rd

Ok, if you are not hip to my blog, you might want to jump back a few posts and read what I mean by the “new” BCS. Simply put, I wanted to create a formula to decide who the best teams might be at this stage of the season, based on 24 factors.

I have used that formula to figure out who may well be the top 10 teams of the season thus far, but it is not a perfect formula. It takes into account the current facts, but as each week goes by, it can change quite dramatically. I broke the major factors into groups, and use these following to determine my formulaL

Factor #1 Wins: Most important, and I give 20 points for every win a team has.

Factors 2&3: Road and home wins: I place a bit more emphasis on winning at home, and protecting your house, than on the road. I give 7 extra points for every home win, and 5 extra points for every road win.

Factors 4-6: FBS factor: I give 7 points for every team you beat that is in your conference, and 3 points for every team out of your conference. IF you play a team that is not a FBS school, you LOSE two points. This rewards those who play tougher schedules, and penalizes the cupcakes.

Factors 7-10 Ranked foes: You get extra points for knocking off a top 25 team at the time they were ranked. If you beat a #4 team in week 3, and they fall off by week 6, you still get credit for beating them when they were ranked. I give 10 points to any team that knocks off a top 5 team, 7 points for beating a 6-10 team, 5 points for beating a team ranked between 11-15 and 3 points for beating any team from 16 to 25.

Factors 11-13: Strength factor: I reward extra points if you beat a team that has a winning record, or even a .500 record. I give 7 points for every team on your schedule that has a winning record as the season goes on. Any team with an even record nets you 3 points, but any team that falls under .500, you LOSE 2 points.

Factors 14-16: Beatdown factor: The more points you pile on, the more you get. But you must beat your team by at least 16 to qualify. If a team wins by over 16 points, I give them one extra point. If they win by over 24 points, I give them 3 points. If they crush their opponent by over 36, they get 5 extra points.

Factors 17-19: Passing factor: A team is considered great if they are a top 20 passing team OR rushing…or both. I give 5 points to the team that is in the top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns, for a total of 10 points possible. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10 in either category, and 1 point if they are in the top 20 in either.

Factors 20-22: Rushing factor: Same as Passing, I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in rushing yards or rushing touchdowns, and 3 points if in the top 10, and a single point if in the top 20.

Factors 23-24: Defense factor: They say offense wins games but defense wins championships. I am not so sure about that, but I do give 5 additional points if the team holds each opponent to under 8 points, and 2 points if they hold each team under 16. It’s my way of rewarding good defensive play.

Now, having gone through all that, here are my top 1 teams according to my NEW BCS formula:

#12 LSU: 189 points. With no real valuable wins, and nowhere in the top 20 in passing or rushing, this team edges out at the bottom of my list.

#11 Miami: 195 points. Similar to LSU, as far as rushing and passing, but some very quality wins keeps them in the loop.

#10 AND #9 TIE USC and Oregon: 205 points. Two one loss teams out of the Pac 10 look pretty good, but we know that they have to play one another soon… this problem will fix itself.

#8 TCU: 222 points: TCU scores in every category, but they need a couple of quality wins to jump over anybody…they are on track to see those very games ahead.

#7 Boise State: 225 points: Very narrow margin with Boise State, and with no real quality wins left, I see them slipping further down. It won’t take much for TCU to overtake them if both continue to win.

#6 Cincinnati: 234 points: This seems to prove that an undefeated team out of even a “weaker” BCS conference is indeed better than Boise State or TCU, and Cincinnati has a couple of big games yet to come.

#5 Georgia Tech: 237 points: With 7 games played, they do have an advantage over those who have so far played 6, so this score may not be totally honest and even. But considering they have one loss, this will be a serious question if they win out.

#4 Texas: 238 points: Some question how Texas has played lately, and a few even say that Texas will lose to Missouri. But to me this is one of the best teams in the nation, and if they sweep the Big 12, they are a shoe in for the National Title.

#3 Florida: 247 points: Much that is said about Texas can be said about Florida and their many close games. But like Texas, if they win out, they are likely in the BCS Championship.

#2 Iowa: 291 points: I have Iowa here only because they have 7 wins, and no one else underneath them has such. The extra game, to this point, has been the reason why they are here at #2. What my formula seems to imply is that winning, and more of it, is indeed most important. But as the other teams play their schedule, things will even out.

#1 Alabama: 297 points: Just as with Iowa, Alabama has 7 wins as well, which on paper look more impressive than 6 wins. If you consider that they are 40 points ahead of Florida and Texas, this could easily be about even. Alabama has the edge only because they get the benefits of the points for a 7th win. As more games are played, we will see the truth come out.

So that’s what I got so far folks, I don’t claim to say this is the gospel, just something fun to do to make conversation. As it stands right now, I have Alabama and Iowa as the two best teams, but ONLY because they have 7 wins. After all, a 7-0 record is better than a 6-0 record, right?

Right? (he said, expecting a debate….)

Any Naysayers of Cincinnati?

Speedblog

Let’s talk a little about Cincinnati…and I don’t mean the BENGALS!

I am pleased to this point about Cincinnati, because I think the media did the Big East an injustice by omitting the ENTIRE conference from the top 25 poll. To me, that is foolish to think that no team in the Big East could be considered to be one of the top 25 teams in the nation.

This seems to show how stupid voters are, when they omit a team that last year, won 11 games. Now I know other teams like Ball State won 12 and stuff like that there, but any team from a BCS conference that had 11 wins last year ought to at least been put on the top 25 at the beginning. If you are foolish enough to put Notre Dame up there for 7 weak wins last year, you ought to have put Cincinnati up there at the beginning of the year.

But they didn’t so the Big East got no love. And all Cincinnati did was fight their way up the rankings up to #5 on the BCS and AP Polls. Personally, I think Cincinnati is right where they need to be, as my New BCS Formula had, at this moment, Alabama, Iowa, Florida, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU, in that order… but if you read my blogs on this, you know that Alabama and Iowa’s scores are based on the fact that they had 7 games, and everybody else had 6.

So Cincinnati is in the mix right now…do they have a shot? What is hurting them at the moment is that their schedule isn’t top notch. Their only quality win against a top 25 opponent was against South Florida. And their next two games are against the bottom feeders of the Big East, so they might slip a bit for that.

But with games vs. West Virginia and Pittsburgh, they need those teams to stay in the top 25, so they’ll have to actually be pulling for them until they face them on the field. As it stands now, Cincinnati needs to play tougher foes to stay a step ahead of Boise state. Remember, one of their 3 losses last year came from Connecticut, so they have to be careful.

I have to think that deep down, the entire Big East conference is pulling for Cincinnati just as the ACC was pulling for Virginia Tech, both conferences need to make a mark in the BCS to validate their strength. Most people felt that these two conferences underachieved last year, which is debatable. But right now, Cincinnati commands respect because we know Alabama and Florida must meet if they continue their paths (SEC Championship) and Texas has to run the tables to the Big 12 Championship. Teams like Cincinnati, UCS and Iowa don’t have conference championships, so it is one less game to worry about. Can the Bearcats get there if they go undefeated? Can they???

New BCS Formula: Iowa and Cincinnati

Now, if you are confused about what I am writing, bounce back to the previous post about the Florida rankings and my new BCS Formula. It will explain a few things for you.

This is simply my attempt to find a different way to determine who the best teams in the FCS are, rather than simply letting media-heads with biased opinions guess on who are the top 25.

To do this, I thought about some of the most basic factors in determining the best teams. I combined them, gave values for each and award such points to every team who accomplishes the factor. I came up with 24 different factors, but they actually can be broken down into 9 different groups.

To demonstrate, I will run two undefeated teams through this formula, using Iowa and Cincinnati:

To start off, I give the most points simply for winning…it is of course the most important factor of getting to the BCS, right?

Factor #1 Winning: I give 20 points for every win a team has. Because Iowa is 7-0, they get 140 points. Because Cincinnati is 6-0, they get 120 points.

Factors 2&3: Where you win is important, and you get points for that. I believe home wins are more important because you must “protect this house” as a commercial once said. I give 7 points for each home win, and 5 points for each road win. Iowa has 4 home wins, which gives them 28 points, while Cincinnati has 2 home wins, for 14 points. For the road games, Iowa has 3 road wins for 15 points, Cincinnati has 4 road wins, for 20 points.

If you are keeping score, that gives Iowa 183 points to Cincinnati’s 154.

Factors 3-5: The type of opponent you beat is important, and can even cost you a few points. I give credit to beating conference opponents, non conference opponents and I also penalize for playing a non-division I team. To me, a great team has to dominate their own conference first, then any wins outside the conference is extra. Beating a team not in the Division I means nothing to a great team.

So under these factors, Iowa gets 21 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing Northern Iowa. That gives them 39 points.

Cincinnati gets 14 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing SE Missouri State. That gives them a total of 32 points.

Score so far, Iowa 222 points, Cincinnati 186.

Factors 7-10: It is also important to beat teams that are ranked, and I used the AP poll as a constant to determine the points awarded. You get more points if you knock off a top 25 team. I give 10 points to any team beating a top 5 squad, 7 points for beating a team 6-10, I give 5 points for beating a team ranked 11-15, and 3 points for any team under that, but still ranked.

This rewards teams that prove that they are indeed one of the best teams in the land, rather than beating cupcakes every Saturday. To date, Iowa has only beaten one team that was ranked, which was #5 Penn State. That gives them 10 points.

Cincinnati has only defeated formerly ranked South Florida, which was #21. For that they get only 3 points.

Total so far, Iowa 232, Cincinnati 189.

Factors 11-13: Strength of opponent: I award points if you beat a team that is currently over .500 or even. I penalize if you beat a team that is under .500. This awards beating teams with winning records, and although a team can’t control the fate of their opponents, it still has to factor in.

Amazingly, 6 of Iowa’s 7 opponents have a winning record, and I give 7 points for each win, for a big 49 points. They lose only 2 points after that because they have one opponent with a losing record at this time, so their total here is 47 points.

Cincinnati has beaten 3 teams with a current winning record, which gives them 21 points. They also have a victory against a team that is even, which gives them 3 more points, but loses 4 points because they beat two teams with losing records. This gives them a sub total of 20 points.

So far, Iowa 279, Cincinnati 209.

Factors 14-16: Style points: I don’t care what anybody says, the way you beat your opponent does say a lot about how good you are. This is not to influence running up the score, but clearly it determines your strength. I give 5 points for every win over 36 points, 3 points for every win over 24 points and 1 point for every win over 16 points. So if a team wins by 30, I slot them in the highest slot possible, which would be the 24+ factor, giving them 3 points. I would not put them in multiple slots, I put them in the highest one they qualify for.

Knowing this, Iowa only gets 3 points because of their win over Iowa State. No other games qualify them since nearly all their games have been close. Cincinnati has one game where they won by over 36 points (+5), one other game where they won by over 24 points (+3) and two games where they won by over 16 (1 pt for each win). That gives Cincinnati a total of 10 points in this set of factors.

Score, Iowa 282, Cincinnati 219

Factors 17-19 Passing credits: I award points if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 in passing by either yards or touchdowns. Because teams may use multiple quarterbacks, I use any that are on the top 20. I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in yards OR touchdowns. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10, and 1 point if they are on the top 20.

In this case, which does change weekly, Iowa is NOT on the top 20 in either case, but Cincinnati is on the top 5 in touchdowns and top 20 in yards. The Bearcats get 6 points for this, while Iowa gets none.

Iowa still at 282, Cincinnati now has 225.

Factors 20-22 Rushing credits: Just like passing, the points are the same if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 for rushing in either yards or touchdowns. But in this case, NEITHER team gets any points since they do not rank in the top 20 in either touchdowns or yards. So the score remains the same.

Factors 23 & 24: Points given up: I award 5 points for every game where the defense allowed UNDER 8 points, and 2 points for every game the defense allowed under 16 points. This acknowledges defensive play, and could rack up some nice numbers.

Under these factors, Iowa had 2 games where they allowed under 16 points, and one game where they allowed under 8 points. They get 2 points for each of those two games, and 5 points for allowing under 8 in a game, for a total of 9 points. Cincinnati is exactly the same, having two games where they allowed under 16, and one game where the defense allowed under 8 points, so they get 9 points as well.

So the grand total, as of this week, Iowa 291, Cincinnati 234.

So where does this put them in the top 5? If we used the same formula for Florida, Boise State, Alabama and Texas, which I did in the previous blog, this is what we have:

1. Alabama 297 points

2. Iowa 291 points

3. Florida 247 points

4. Texas 238 points

5. Cincinnati 234 points

6. Boise State 225 points.

I remind you that Alabama and Iowa have the advantage of playing 7 games, not six, so that explains why they are so far ahead of the others at this point in time. Remember, I award 20 points off the top just for winning, so the 50 point difference between them and the others is partly based on that.

But you can also see where Boise State is, at number 6, based on the current circumstances. I ran TCU under the same formula and they came out with 222 points, just a hair short of Boise State…but remember, this is just for this week, it changes weekly.

So at this moment, Iowa and Alabama are the best teams in the nation, but only because they have one more game under their belts. Considering that you can get a good 40-60 points per win, Texas, Florida and Cincinnati are not that far behind at all.

We will see how it goes.

After taking a look at this entry’s title, it dawned on me that I may need to clarify:  this is not the first in a series of volumes about that emotionally unavailable Manhattanite we women have analyzed and pined over, along with Carrie Bradshaw, for the past 10 years.

Instead, I couldn’t help but notice his blog has taken a decidedly professional football-heavy tone.  I want to rectify that with this series of mega-posts featuring enthralling tidbits about more of the BCS conferences.

I can’t necessarily say that the old adage “BIGger is better” is accurate when it comes to NCAA football, but it bigger sure is more prolific.  Three BCS conferences feature the word “Big” in them (let alone smaller conferences such as Big Sky, Big South, Big West, etc.).  I think it may be worthwhile to do a little research on what, precisely, prompted the ubiquitous use of “big”.  I’m guessing it goes along the lines of whipping out the conferences and measuring them.

I honestly don’t know what’s big about the Big East – there are actually just eight teams in the conference.  During basketball season, it’s a whole different story, but for football purposes, the “Big” East is a pack of liars.  That’s okay though – we’re not here to judge, remember?  Without further ado, here’s the Big East lineup:

Cincinnati

Connecticut (UConn)

Louisville

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

South Florida (USF)

Syracuse

West Virginia

To be brutally honest, the Big East isn’t known for their football.  On the flip side, though, there is typically at least one school in the top 15 each week in the NCAA Polls.

BROWNIE POINT #3: It should be noted that the Big East of today looks dramatically different than just five years ago.  In 2004, perennial power houses University of Miami and Virginia Tech left for the ACC, to be followed shortly thereafter by Boston College.  After these departures, the Big East introduced UConn as well as some Conference USA transplants- namely Louisville, USF and Cincinnati.

West Virginia has had a great decade.  Under Rich Rodriguez and with talent such as Steve Slaton and Pat White, WVU won the Sugar Bowl in 2006 (defeating SEC champion Georgia).  The Mountaineers proceeded to perform well and win the Gator Bowl in 2007.  After another stellar season, the Mountaineers were invited to and ultimately won the Fiesta Bowl (upsetting Big 12 champs Oklahoma), but not before head coach Rodriguez announced his imminent departure to the University of Michigan.  New coach Bill Stewart, a passionate West Virginia native, has proven himself to be a capable coach, with some potentially great years ahead of him.

Cincinnati is a team on the rise, assembling some fantastic seasons in recent years (last year’s team took the Big East championship and made a school-first BCS bowl appearance in an Orange Bowl loss to Virginia Tech).  Undefeated for just the second time in basically half a century, Cincinnati has cracked the top 5 of the BCS Poll (the bias-free, statistics-based rankings calculated at the mid-point of the season).  Questionable mascot aside (what, exactly, is a Bearcat?), Cincinnati is looking to make an appearance in a BCS bowl for the second straight season.

USF may not be the third team you’d think of in the Big East, but they’ve boasted some impressive appearances lately as, prompting speculation as to whether or not South Florida may join the ranks (or even potentially replace one) of UF, Miami and Florida State as the dominant Florida forces.  Once again, USF is off to an impressive start, having beaten in-state rival Florida State, and falling only to Cincinnati.

Although the Big East is neither big, nor does it play much of a factor in the National Championship discussion, it’s nonetheless a fun little conference to watch.  With its mid-major size (and the fact that it is the sole major conference without an automatic BCS berth), it even lends a bit of an underdog air to the conference, particularly during bowl seasons.