Reuters:   The Treasury says the TARP loss will be $200 billion less than expected.

Reuters:   Cadbury (NYSE:CBY) will respond to the Kraft (NYSE:KFT) offer on the 14th of December.

Reuters:   Five AIG (NYSE:AIG) executives may quit over pay restrictions

Reuters:   The US and Japan will open the options for carriers to fly to Tokyo.

Reuters:   Dubai will not sell assets to support Dubai World.

Reuters:   Citigroup (NYSE:C) is seeking government approval to pay its loans.

Reuters:   GM hired Spencer Stuart for find a CEO.

Reuters:   Senior lawmakers are near a deal to regulate swaps.

Reuters:   Credit contraction in the US continues to grow.

Reuters:   Saks (NYSE:SKS) is facing frugal upper class shoppers.

Reuters:   The Organization of Economic Cooperation says public debt will hurt the recovery.

WSJ:   Businesses are upset by a rule regulating carbon dioxide emissions.

WSJ:   The bull market is showing signs of near-term slowing.

WSJ:   Big retailers are under more financial pressure because of federal laws that may prevent them from extending credit.

WSJ:   Toyota (NYSE:TM) faces a US safety probe.

WSJ:   Kuwait sold its $4.1 billion stake in Citigroup (NYSE:C).

WSJ:   Barnes & Noble (NASDAQ:BKS) delayed the release of its Nook e-readers in stores.

WSJ:   Ebay (NASDAQ:EBAY) and Craigslist will face off in court.

WSJ:   There is still a great deal of systemic risk in the credit system.

WSJ:   The Boeing (NYSE:BA) Dreamliner is close to its first test flight.

WSJ:   Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) killed plans for a graphics chip.

WSJ:   Clear Channel will seek to raise debt.

WSJ:   With yields falling US companies may be forced to look at more M&A.

WSJ:   Banks must increase debt to cover capital requirements.

NYT:   The loss on the TARP will be $42 billion out of $370 billion loaned, according to new forecasts.

NYT:   The NBCU deal puts the future of broadcast TV in doubt.

NYT:   Big sovereign wealth funds have made huge profits on bailing out financial firms.

FT:   Citigroup (NYSE:C) is in a race to repay TARP funds.

FT:   Obama hopes the TARP fund can be used for job creation.

FT:   Bloomberg is looking for more media acquisitions.

FT:   Silicon Valley is preparing for a comeback in IPOs.

Douglas A. McIntyre

December is known for being a positive month in the market, mostly due to the Santa Clause rally. This is usually spurred on by good retail numbers, and this year our retail numbers have not been that stellar. Originally, they were reported as bte, but we have now come to realization that our spending numbers are lower than first reported, and worse than last year. The key will be to see if this trend continues or if spending increases. Further, Friday I thought was going to be a big down day, and I am still convinced that if we had not had those incredible jobs number, we would’ve had a huge down day, as evidenced by the sell off from the highs of the day. When I had a chance to look at charts, I saw how weak the eur/usd was and how the UUP was moving up into the selling, I was convinced the rally would not hold. In fact, I felt that we would finish the day down 100 points. But we managed to close in the green.

I did a little research on those jobs numbers. I thought we may get a bte number, but not nearly what was reported. If you recall, in September we went from 9.5% to 9.4%, and that was not sustained. This time the work force has been reduced 100,000, which would affect the numbers positively.  So if and when they come back, this will increase the number again. We have to watch and see if there is a trend forming, or if this is a one time anomaly.

All that being said, I still expect us to move down this week. We have a decent amount of news coming out this week, and they could be mkt. movers. However, after seeing how the UUP reacted on Friday I really think things may be changing and we may be heading for a prolonged down move.  On to this week’s video.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has opened scores of retail stores and by almost any measure they have been a success. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is opening retail locations to sell its hardware and software. It is too early to tell if Redmond’s initiative will be profitable or simply a loss leader for demonstrating Windows and xbox 360s.

Word comes from the Times of London that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), the world’s largest e-commerce operation, is planning to open stores in well-to-do sections of the UK. The stores will allow people to buy items on site but will also serve as locations where people can pick-up what they have bought online. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) has had a similar program for more than a year.

The UK stores could be the model for Amazon store expansion in the US. Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) still has a large number of profitable stores. Amazon may target areas where book and consumer electronics retail outlets do well.

Wall St. has wondered what Amazon’s next move might be. Its last major venture was the launch of the highly lauded and successful e-reader Kindle devices. Several research firms estimate that two to three million e-readers will be sold in the US over the holidays and Amazon will sell the lion’s share of those.

Amazon may be choosing a particularly good time to get into the retail store business. Many retail outlets of other companies have shut down leaving landlords without tenants. Those landlords are likely to be willing to cut favorable rental deals with a firm as large as Amazon which is certain to pay its bills. Retail spending in the US is also posting a tiny rebound, at least according to early holiday spending figures. Amazon can afford to gamble that the trend will continue as the recession ends and the unemployment picture improves.

Amazon certainly as the balance sheet to enter the store business and wait out a weak economy. But, for every retail success of a company with a good brand there is a failure. It is worth remembering that Sharper Image was one of the hottest retailers both with stores and with catalogues and e-commerce operations. It is now bankrupt.

A strong brand is only one element of  retail success.

Douglas A. McIntyre

24/7 Wall St. has prepared its list of the ten brands that will disappear in 2010. This list is based on a review of each firm’s financial situation and other operating data, the current and ongoing value of its brand, and whether the company that controls that brand can sell its assets.

This year a number of famous brands have closed or their parents have announced that they will be shut down shortly. This includes decades-old magazines like Gourmet and famous car brands like Pontiac. The recession took whatever economic value these brands had left and destroyed it.

The brands on the 24/7 list for 2010 include companies that have been in trouble for years. Some have been in slow decline and others were irreparably damaged by the credit crisis. Most of these companies will be bought and the rest will simply be closed.

Newsweek. The magazine already has slashed its rate base (circulation guaranteed to advertisers) from 3.1 million to 2.5 million. It has announced further cuts that will take this figure to 1.5 million early next year. The New York Times reported that Newsweek’s advertising fell 29.9% through the first three quarters of 2009. According to the 10-Q for The Washington Post Company (NYSE:WPO), Newsweek ad revenue plunged 47% in the third quarter from the year before. The magazine has lost almost $30 million so far this year. Newsweek had hoped to transform itself into a poor man’s version of the Economist and has largely dropped covering breaking news and reviews of the big stories of the week. The change in the editorial direction of Newsweek may have been the right thing to do, but it came much too late. Newsweek, like many other print products, hopes to rely on internet readership and advertising to improve its fortunes. Audience measurement firm Compete indicates that the audience of Newsweek.com has dropped 15% in the last year to 1.3 million unique visitors a month in October. Audience research firm comScore shows an even sharper decline. That is, by itself, an important indication that the public has not been attracted to the “new” Newsweek. The Washington Post has enough trouble with fixing problems at its flagship paper. Its online news and commentary  magazine, Slate.com, had more than 3.8 million visitors in October. Slate has none of the legacy print costs of Newsweek.

Motorola. The handset and telecom infrastructure company may finally have a future three years after falling from the No.2 spot in global cell phone share to obscurity. The time has come for the company to break itself into pieces and allow buyers to scuttle a brand with a bad reputation. The firm has said it will seek a buyer for its cable and wireless equipment companies for a $4.5 billion price tag. Motorola has a market cap of $19 billion. Motorola has long-term debt of $3.9 billion and cash of about $3 billion. Motorola has three divisions. The one that created most of the company’s value until recently is its mobile devices operation. The revenue from that division fell by almost half in the last quarter from $3.1 billion to $1.7 billion. But the future for the division is brighter, primarily due to its new Droid phone which has sold remarkably well and is being heavily promoted by Verizon Wireless. Industry experts expect that one million of the handsets have been sold in the last month. The value of the Droid is not the Motorola brand but the brand of the Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android operating system that runs it. A more successful Motorola handset company would be attractive to Samsung or LG. The most likely buyer is Nokia (NYSE:NOK), which has a modest market share in the US. Motorola still does very well in its domestic market. Nokia does not need the Motorola brand, but it could use a successful Android handset.

Palm. The smart phone company had a modest success with the launch of its Pre. The follow-on product, the Pixi, is not doing as well. The Pre is facing renewed competition from the Motorola Droid and new high-end handsets from Nokia and Samsung. It competes with the two smart phone juggernauts the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone and RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM) Blackberry. In an effort to push sales, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) dropped the price on the Pre to $79.99. Palm needs a deal with both AT&T Wireless (NYSE:T) and Verizon to supplement the one it has with Sprint (NYSE:S). It is not clear that those partnerships will be formed. Pre sales have fallen off, if a number of Wall St. analysts are correct. Many analysts have sharply dropped their stock price targets to $10 based on concerns that Palm will significantly miss its earnings targets. The firm’s stock has decreased from over $18 earlier this year to $11. Nokia has forecast that global handset sales will only rise 10% next year, which will make it nearly impossible for the market to support the number of manufacturers in the business today. Both LG and Samsung, the No.2 and No.3 handset companies, have weak smart phone lines. Each is jealous of its brand. With a market cap of $1.7 billion, Palm is a cheap way to move further into the high-end handset business.
Borders. Borders Group (NYSE:BGP) lost the online and brick-and-mortar bookstore war years ago to Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) and Amazon.com (NYSE:BGP). The company’s stock is down to $1.20 from a 52-week high of $4.48 and its market value is less than $80 million. For the quarter ending in October, the company’s loss from continuing operations was $39.0 million,or $0.65 per share, compared to a loss of $39.0 million, or $0.64 per share, a year ago. Revenue was $595.5 million, down $86.6 million, or 12.7%. Border’s large Waldenbooks division has all but disappeared. That part of Border’s operations is down to 361 stores. With its debt net of cash at $375 million, a competitor like Barnes & Noble could buy $2 billion in annual revenue for a fraction of sales and cut general and administrative costs to improve margins. Borders has been dead for over two years, but no one has been able to dispose of the body.
Blockbuster. Blockbuster’s (NYSE:BBI) stock traded for $10 less than it did five years ago. Shares change hands for $.62 now. The video rental company had an awful third quarter. Revenue for this period of 2009 was $910.5 million, down from $1.16 billion for the same quarter a year ago. The 21% revenue decrease was mostly due to a 14% decline in same store sales. The firm’s net loss was $114 million compared to a $19 million loss in the same period in 2008. Blockbuster has only $141 million in cash and cash equivalents. No one has figured out what to do with Blockbuster. The company has 3,662 stores in the US and 1,703 overseas. Blockbuster has lease liabilities on a number of those stores, but ideally the company would be much smaller. It lost its chance to be in the online video rental business to NetFlix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and its chance at IP-based VOD to a number of internet streaming services and cable set-top box based products. The market value of the company is only $125 million. Blockbuster has bought itself some time by refinancing a large part of its debt and it has been aggressively closing stores. One of the things that Blockbuster mentions in its SEC filings is that its debt load and declining revenue could force it to seek a restructuring of its indebtedness or file for protection under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.  A bankruptcy will do almost nothing to improve Blockbuster’s prospects.  Blockbuster does have over $1.7 billion in assets, not all of them saleable, but the firm will almost certainly face liquidation in the relatively near future.

–McIntyre

Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are intertwined closer than peanut butter and jelly.  These two former government sponsored entities are now in government conservatorship. Their influence has largely disappeared. In the 1990’s it was believed that the government would never allow them to fold.  It seems today that the GSEs are being kept afloat merely because it is cheaper and easier for the government to keep them in limbo than to repossess them and assume their liabilities.  The sad thing is that even if the turnaround in housing lasts, it is just not enough to help Fannie and Freddie.  Delinquencies keep rising and using traditional balance sheet analysis is nearly impossible.  Whether these stay above $1.00 or not, it also seems that the NYSE keeps these listed because of the high amount of shares traded rather than on the merits of the future of these stocks.  Alan Greenspan once said they should be nationalized and relaunched as eight entities that are privately owned.  KBW went as far as to say the value of the common and preferred shares are worth zero.  There will be some remnants left over in the operations, but these are being kept alive for appearance and convenience rather than because of their solid operating metrics.

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK) is one of the former solid bond insurers that held the market together.  The reality is that its peers may be in the same boat or close behind it, but Ambac is the one with the largest question mark associated with it today.  Insuring municipal bonds become very difficult in 2008 and for much of 2009 and its structured finance guarantees brought up what could be an untenable situation.  What is sad is that a month ago came the company’s earnings on items which reinvigorated buyers of penny stocks and speculative stocks.  Then came the change of heart.  It was questionable whether Ambac could stay above regulatory capital requirements, and that was after the company disclosed that it may be forced to file for bankruptcy protection if it was unable to improve its capital position.  It did claim enough regulatory capital, but then the Chief Financial Officer Sean Leonard resigned after the company missed a regulatory filing deadline and that is often enough to spook any investor in a troubled company.  Back-dated tax refunds may help the company stay afloat longer, as would a new capital raise if it is even possible.  But for Ambac to continue to function under normal operations, it seems as though the capital markets would have to revert back to the boom days rather than the after-shock days.

Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) has been on a downward trajectory since even before the end of the last decade.  CEO Antonio Perez has not been able to fix the company since he took over in 2005 and Kodak keeps its heavy project investing and has been in a restructuring state for about as long as memory can go back.  How much this has recovered from its lows is probably irrelevant today.  And the notion that Perez was re-signed through 2013 is almost baffling.  This was one of the greatest American brands of the 20th century.  But its entrance to digital printing was very late and too many little dot.com me-too companies were able to jump way in front of the company’s digital efforts.  The latest financing deal with KKR was for $700 million, and this seemed more like KKR was getting itself into a position to make a run at the company with a seniority position in the credit structure.  Kodak won’t cease to exit.  It just may wind up in a private equity portfolio with a much leaner and meaner structure.  And that might in fact be a take-under rather than by a traditional buyout.  It seems as though Eastman Kodak is in the same or an even worse boat than newspapers, with the key difference being that newspapers still have a business if advertising from auto dealers and housing ever comes back.

Sun Microsystems Inc. (JAVA) may be headed into Oracle (ORCL) and it may not.  Its fate as a standalone company is however looking more and more like an inevitable fate.  IBM (IBM) was interested in Sun, but dropped out.  And now the European Commission somehow is worried about too much control of open source in the hands of Oracle even though much of this stuff is free or has been given away by Sun for next to nothing.  Maybe having a money-losing model is what the European regulators want.  But if the Sun-Oracle merger is blocked, the Sun has to do something and in a hurry.  It will be forced to go out and buy a revenue and earnings stream with the main criteria being earnings.  The company’s loss history and awful internals (not excluding employee morale) will make this even more so the case.  So even if Sun is not acquired, it has to go make a transformative deal and it needs a good economy for its core operations to run at profitable levels.  If Sun exists a year out, it seems that it will be a very different company by force more than by choice.

E*Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) is a great company with a great client base.  And it was run into the ground from giving risky loans and acting as the end-user banker.  Then it got bailed out in a deal with Citadel which gave the firm an extra layer of trade executions and gave Citadel control over the company’s operations.  The dominance of Citadel is not as much as it was in even just a few months ago, but the company is soon to be without its replacement CEO. Things have got better at E*TRADE on operations, and the company’s solid advertising campaign allowed the firm to keep growing at a time in 2008 when suddenly the company appeared to be at-risk.  The at-risk issue is one that might not go away for some time because of its loan exposure that it is stuck with and because write downs kept coming. Now, it seems that the wagons may be circling around E*TRADE despite the notion that many dismiss TD AMERITRADE (AMTD) as a suitor.  E*TRADE still has a difficult ride if it has to just whether the storm and it may not have the resources needed to ride it out.  That will come up for more debate if write downs and charges keep continuing.  But for a larger buyer, particularly the non-bank companies that claim to be bank holding companies, then its 2.7 million brokerage accounts and total accounts of more than 4.5 million will be much more valuable to a suitor than to see what is left of the company if the finances turn back south.

–Jon Ogg

Disclosures: Newsweek and 24/7 Wall St. have a content licensing agreement. Douglas A. McIntyre and Strauss Zelnick, a Blockbuster board member, served together on the board of On2 Technologies from 2000 to 2004.30

Jon Ogg and Douglas A. McIntyre

Reuters:   UAE shares fell on Dubai debt problem news.

Reuters:   The Treasury will meet with mortgage companies to try to get them to accelerate loan modifications.

Reuters:   Holiday shoppers did not use credit cards as much as in the past.

Reuters:   Shoppers are increasing the use of e-commerce.

Reuters:   Shoppers spent less per person on Black Friday than a year ago.

Reuters:   Beijing Auto may have an interest in Saab.

Reuters:   Regulators have made a list of systematic risk firms.

WSJ:   A rift may be forming between Dubai and the UAE central bank.

WSJ:   Some failed banks cannot be sold at any price.

WSJ:   More shoppers went to stores over the Thanksgiving weekend, but they spent less.

WSJ:   Higher interest rates are threatening bank stocks.

WSJ:   More companies are becoming vertical through acquisitions.

WSJ:   Wall St. traders are beginning to spend large sums of money again.

WSJ:   The store debut of the Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) Nook has been delayed.

WSJ:   US coal miners expect to cut output.

WSJ:   AOL plans to mass produce content using huge numbers of articles produced by outsiders.

WSJ:   Samsung handset sales are on track to exceed expectations.

WSJ:   Shopping via mobile phone is picking up.

WSJ:   The Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone went on sales in South Korea.

WSJ:   R&D spending is staying strong.

WSJ:   Lenovo will by a mobile handset company.

WSJ:   More economists do not expect a strong recovery raising the question of how that will effect equity prices.

WSJ:   Credit ratings agencies are producing more independent reports.

WSJ:   Following Twitter is helping some companies predict near term sales.

WSJ:   More companies are outsourcing idea creation.

NYT:   Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is working to gain ground on Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) in Japan.

FT:   India GDP growth was 7.9% in the third quarter.

FT:   There may be a bid for AIG’s (NYSE:AIG) aircraft leasing business.

FT:   GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) will cut drug prices for developing countries.

Douglas A. McIntyre

This holiday season, 80 percent of individuals want some sort of consumer electronics device as a gift, according to a survey by the Consumer Electronics Association and CNET, but unless your recipients are already app-loving, ebook-downloading, subscription-paying gadgeteers, buying hot consumer electronics can pose several problems. I’ve tried to outline a few ways around the most common missteps when it comes to giving gifts with bytes, so before you buy Mom that e-reader or Grandpa the latest iPhone (s aapl), check them out so that you don’t give gifts that, well, bite.

Nobody Wants a Brick: I’d love to offer someone a MiFi this year, mostly because I think the device is the greatest thing since Wi-Fi, and I know plenty of folks who could use it, but no one is going to thank me for giving them a device that requires a $60-a-month subscription plan. Same goes for many of the 3G-enabled photo frames on the market.

If you give someone a network-connected device, you need to give them a connection, too. That means signing them up and paying for an annual service plan when you purchase the item, or choosing a device like the Kindle, for which the cost of the wireless subscription is already built in.

Your Time Is The Most Valuable Gift of All: What’s so cool about many of today’s gadgets is that they allow us to personalize them. Think of the iPhone or the Droid. Over at T-Mobile, nearly half of myTouch users say they have “completely customized” their myTouch phones. That’s great for the tech-savvy, but for many people the app economy is still new territory, so if you’re going to give a gadget as a gift, you should also plan to stick around for an hour or to help the recipient set up their information in the online store, show them how to find the best stuff and warn them about the dangers of digital rights management (how if you download a book on the Kindle, it’s not gonna work on their spouse’s non-Kindle e-reader, for example).

The Perils of Pre-loading: If you don’t have time to spare, you can try to personalize the device for a love one, for example, taking photos of family members on a camera phone and adding in your phone number. When it comes to the Apple ecosystem, you can pre-load a new iPod touch or iPhone on someone’s behalf with your iTunes login information, but once the recipient gets the device they’ll need to link the device to their own account (you’ll want to supervise so they don’t keep downloading content on your credit card). A downside to pre-loading is that any content downloaded from the iTunes store will be stuck on the device, unable to be transferred to the recipient’s computer without a separate program like iRip.

Sony (NYSE:SNE) said it might not have its e-reader, the Daily Edition Reader, ready to ship before Christmas. It has given customers a range of dates for availability of its product that could be as early as December 18 or as late as January 8.

Now, Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) has come up short on the inventory of units for its device–the Nook. The book retailer said, “Preorders have exceeded our expectations.”

Barnes & Noble and Sony came into the e-reader market to challenge the extremely successful Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Kindle which has established a large enough market to prove the devices are popular. Several research firms say that they expect e-reader sales to hit three million this holiday season. Amazon is the only competitor in the field which has effectively managed its inventory. That leaves Barnes & Noble and Sony with little more than the embarrassment of botched launches.

The news points to yet another reason that Amazon is so widely admired on Wall St. It invented the e-reader and established a huge library of e-books. The new business is so successful that it has been challenged by Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) which is offering  several e-books for under $10. Amazon remains the leader in the field, both in the size and traffic to its library and the market share of the Kindle.

Challenging Amazon at what it does best is a hard task as it is. Making a major mistake is the process will probably prove to be a setback that Barnes & Noble and Sony cannot overcome.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Earnings season has mostly wound down, but as always at least some major companies are reporting earnings.  Some are actually market-movers as well and it is a short week with earnings out only Monday and Tuesday, with a few on Wednesday.  On deck are Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD), Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP), J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG), Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), and Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE).

We have included estimates from Thomson Reuters, relative data on peers and recent developments, and relative performance on each where it was applicable.

The biggest on Monday is Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) in the PC and It services sector.  We would note that estimates may have just been unofficially guided down after Dell’s rotten quarter, but we already have recent guidance from H-P.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.13 EPS and $30.36 billion in revenues.  Estimates for next quarter are $1.04 EPS and $29.7 billion in revenues.  We are going to hold off on most data going into H-P earnings at least before Monday morning because of last-minute estimate changes based on Dell.  We would note that some of Dell’s woes are due to H-P, and then the Acer netbook and whatever you want to tie into Apple’s gains.  H-P is also really marginalized about what it says Monday because it already lifted guidance when it announced its buyout of 3Com (NASDAQ: COMS).

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) is on deck Monday.  This may not seem important, but it is to the meat and food supplier companies.  Estimates are $0.26 EPS and $6.89 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.15 EPS and $6.59 billion in revenues.  As a producer of chicken, beef, pork, and prepared foods, it will be interesting to see if the H1N1 fears by the public have finally worked themselves out.  The company just named a new CEO this week, which always makes for a wild card report or conference call.

Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) has finally gotten off the floor after not participating in the rally.  At $34.13, its 52-week trading is $24.63 to $37.58.  Estimates are $0.81 EPS and $2.28 billion in revenues.  The big question here is what the company sees ahead for off-brand and private-label competition from grocery stores looking for more of the profits to stay in their pockets.  It turns out that Campbell Soup is not recession-proof and has some aspects of a luxury brand when it comes to pinching pennies.  Interestingly enough, this one just raised its dividend by 10%.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is also on deck Monday, and by now may just be a me-too solar earnings report.  It is a loser too as estimates are -$0.10 EPS and $277.2 in revenues.  Next quarter is expected to show -$0.05 EPS and $258.7 million in revenues.

Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD) is often overlooked as a key company, but the company offers a broad insight on what is happening in the world of technology products as it gets all the goods from the factories to the end retailers around the globe.  Estimates are $0.70 EPS and $5.31 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.82 EPS and $5.63 billion in revenues.  At just under 15-times expected Jan-2010 fiscal earnings, this isn’t expensive, but the performance is high: At $42.08 this one has a 52-week trading range of $14.14 to $44.63.  We’d watch Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) for a chaser move either way.

We have the big book earnings war on Tuesday with both Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) and Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) and we’d be sure to make note that these are thinly followed compared to most big retailers.  Barnes & Noble is expected to post -$0.33 EPS and $1.16 billion, but the coming holiday quarter estimates are $1.52 EPS and $2.18 billion in revenues.  Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) is expected to post -$0.46 EPS and $630 million in revenues, and the coming important holiday quarter is expected to be $0.92 EPS and $987.9 million in revenues.  While both stocks are up significantly from the lows, neither stock is anywhere close to being a top performer and neither is close to 52-week highs.  There is a move to digital books on e-readers and online pure-plays for selling books or readers buying at Costco, Wal-Mart, and elsewhere.  And dare we say… Most Americans do not read books anymore anyway.  It looks like there are fresh reports that the Nook e-reader from Barnes & Noble is also getting delayed and might not make the Christmas deadline… a win for Amazon and the Kindle.

J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG) is far from a systemic stock, but it will be all over the media when it reports on Tuesday because of the Obama effect.  Michelle Obama has been a boom for J. Crew… to the point that you can’t not notice the premium valuations over other clothing retailers.  Estimates are $0.58 EPS and $407.99 million in revenues, and the estimates for the ever-important holiday season are $0.40 EPS and $435.48 million in revenues.  As far as how this translates to forward numbers, J. Crew trades after a 1.6% drop today to $40.45 at over 25-times the $1.60 EPS estimate for Jan-2010 FY and trades at 21-times the $1.93 EPS estimate for Jan-2011 FY.  With a $40.45, it is also at the top of the $8.02 to $44.29 trading range over the last 52-weeks.  This stock was at $50.00 briefly in early 2008 and above $50.00 in 2007 before the great bear market came to town before Santa.

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is also on deck Tuesday, and this can influence all the other dollar stores.  By now you have figured out that dollar stores were the winner in the trade-down economy during the recession.  Estimates are $0.66 EPS on $1.24 billion in revenues.  The coming holiday quarter estimates are $1.35 EPS and $1.53 billion in revenues.  At $48.70 today, its 52-week trading range is $27.61 to $51.72.  That being said, there is little else to watch except for keeping an eye on Dollar General (NYSE: DG), 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN), and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO).

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has already recovered handily to the point that it is close to 52-week highs.  It reports Wednesday morning, right before everyone disappears to go eat Turkey with their families in America.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $4.44 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.23 EPS and $4.06 billion.  At $50.00, it is at the top of the $24.51 to $52.28 trading range over the last 52-weeks. Deere has already announced that it was recalling 452 laid off workers for an Iowa plant, so it would be a shock if suddenly the company announced that business was rolling back over hard.  We will be hoping for raised guidance for its fiscal October-2010 because the $2.68 estimate above the $2.61 EPS estimate for fiscal October-2009, but more importantly because that is 18.6-times forward earnings.  Anything short of raised guidance, by a handy amount, will be a disappointment to us.

We will follow-up on some of these each day next week with much more detailed earnings previews and some earnings reports in the key names.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on key analyst calls, top day trader alerts, mergers and acquisitions, Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 19, 2009

The management at Sony (NYSE:SNE) looks more and more like “The Gang That Couldn’t Shot Straight.” Its TV screen business is losing money. Most months, sales of the PS3 fall behind those of the Microsoft (NYSE:MSFT) Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii.

Sony appears to have a promising new product in its Daily Edition Reader, the company’s e-reader offering. The device puts it into competition with market leader Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and its popular Kindle, but Sony still have the consumer electronics brand power to give it a reasonable change to be a force in the e-book industry.

It would be nice if Sony could get its product out for the holidays.

The Wall Street Journal suggested that readers who look at the Sony e-reader section of SonyStyle.com will find that the product can be preordered but will not ship until some time between December 18 and January 8 and even then “actual delivery date cannot be guaranteed.”

Sony has a history of disappointing investors which may be caused by its history of disappointing customers. The battle for e-reader market share will not be entirely won or lost this holiday, but the efforts by Amazon and Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) to gain customers during the high point of the annual retail season  are already considerable. The Kindle is being promoted on the home page of Amazon.com and the Barnes & Noble “Nook” is the featured product at the barnesandnoble.com site.

Research firm Forrester recently raised its forecast of holiday e-reader sales to three million from two million. Sony is risking what could be as many as a few hundred thousand sales by not being able to guarantee shipment of its product before Christmas.

This holiday might have offered Sony a chance to improve its reputation which is now one of being a consumer electronics “also ran”. Instead, it will only add to its own history of disappointing customers.

Get more on Sony and Amazon at the 24/7 Wall St. 500

Douglas A. Mcintyre

For more 24/7 Wall St. TV visit us here.

Executive Producer: Philip MacDonald

Reuters:   Thain regrets nothing he did at Merrill Lynch and during its merger with Bank of America (NYSE:BAC).

Reuters:   Trump put his support to the bondholders of his casino business.

FT:   A Chinese court ruled against Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) in an intellectual property case.

Reuters:   Almost 15,000 Americans admitted to offshore tax cheating.

Reuters:   Hershey (NYSE:HSY) and Ferrero are in talks about buying Cadbury.

Reuters:   House Democrats are advancing their “too big to fail” legislation.

Reuters:   Fed officials differ on the recovery’s pace.

Reuters:   Citigroup (NYSE:C) upped the base salaries of some executives.

Reuters:   RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM), maker of the Blackberry, will stick to its current strategy.

Reuters:   The CEO of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) apologized for the firm’s role in the credit crisis.

Reuters:   US consumers expect deep holiday discounts.

Reuters:   Microsoft announced it new cloud computing plans.

WSJ:   Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) are being hurt by commercial loan defaults affecting transactions for apartment buildings.

WSJ:   Goldman Sachs and Buffett have put together a program to help small businesses.

WSJ:   Federal regulators are putting together plans to get cheap broadband to all Americans.

WSJ:   The head of the IMF said a stronger yuan would help global economics.

WSJ:   Delta (NYSE:DAL) and its alliance of airlines will offer JAL over $1 billion in funding.

WSJ:   Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE:MTU) will $11 billion in stock.

WSJ:   Vivendi and GE (NYSE:GE) are setting terms for the buyout of the European company’s piece of NBCU.

WSJ:   GM’s plan of Opel is still not set.

WSJ:   Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) will buy Semitool.

WSJ:   The FBI thinks terrorist are planning cyber attacks.

WSJ:   There are still too many houses in the US to support a market recovery.

WSJ:   A government report says Goldman Sachs would have suffered massive losses if AIG (NYSE:AIG) had not honored financial commitments backed by the government.

WSJ:   Pimco will set up a business to help assess bond risk.

WSJ:   New ETFs offer investors the chance to put money into the market like hedge funds do.

WSJ:   S.C. Johnson may bid against P&G (NYSE:PG) for Sara Lee’s (NYSE:SLE) air freshener business.

WSJ:   CEOs say access to credit is key to job growth.

WSJ:   US power companies are teaming with Chinese operations to get access to new technology.

WSJ:   Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) put a poison pill into effect.

NYT:   The NY State comptroller said Wall St. is on track for record profits.

NYT:   Congress is pushing medical schools on the ghost writing of research.

NYT:   A-Power Energy of China and the U.S. Renewable Energy Group are changing a wind farm deal because of political pressure.

FT:   Apollo is preparing an NYSE listing.

FT:   Sony (NYSE:SNE) is reworking its $5 billion ad budget.

FT:   Banks face ratings downgrades on their bonds.

FT:   A US task force will be set up to fight fraud.

Bloomberg:  Private equity funding is dropping sharply.

Bloomberg:   There are new warnings that China faces asset bubbles.

Douglas A. McIntyre

W dniu jutrzejszym lider A-klasy Orzeł Mokre będzie podejmował naszą Spartę. Po nieudanym meczu z drużyną Jastrzębia czeka nas bardzo ciężki mecz wyjazdowy. Czy w tym meczu pokażemy lwi pazur? Czy jesteśmy w stanie powalczyć z liderem? Pytań jest wiele. Odpowiedz poznamy już godzinie 16.

Sparta zawsze potrafiła się zmobilizować na mecze o stawkę a mecz z liderem tabeli do takich należy. Trenowaliśmy bardzo ciężko. Trener zaordynował bardzo wyczerpujące treningi. Mam nadzieję, że ciężka praca da efekty w sobotnim spotkaniu. Myślę, że każdy punkt zdobyty kosztem lidera zadowoli naszych kibiców. Szkoda, że nie będę mógł Wam pomóc, ale ta runda dla piszącego się już zakończyła.

Orzeł Mokre jest liderem katowickiej A-klasy. W 11 meczach zgromadził 29 punktów. Wygrał 9 spotkań oraz 2 zremisował. Wniosek jest tylko jeden. Czas na porażkę. Ja w to głęboko wierzę. Jeżeli zagramy z pełnym zaangażowaniem i wolą walki tam jak w meczu np. z Rozwojem Katowice to 3 punkty są w naszym zasięgu.

Pamiętajcie nagrody czekają!!! Jest, o co walczyć!!! Powodzenia!!!

Mam nadzieję, że tym razem Ricardo zadzwoni!!!

Updated throughout the day.

Updated at 1.11 PM EST:  Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) will sell First Republic for $1 billion.  (The Deal)

Updated 1.05 PM EST:  Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) may be teaming up with record labels to launch a music service  (Reuters)

Updated 1.00 PM EST: Credit Suisse says Orbitz (NYSE:OWW) may be a takeover target  (Barron’s)

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) knew about Merrill Lynch losses as early as November.  (Bloomberg)

The new Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) e-reader will run the Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android OS   (Ars Technica).

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will soon release Mac OS X 10.6.2 (MacRumors)

Congressional officials want to talk to three banking officials in Massachusetts before continuing to pursue their investigation of the Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) buy-out of Merrill Lynch  (The Boston Globe)

Small online financial sites may soon be more valuable than Fortune Magazine (NYSE:TWX)  (The Deal)

The housing market may have bottomed (CNBC)

Douglas A. McIntyre

There are a number of ways to rank brand values. One of the most important is the level at which a brand contributes to the market value of a public company.

24/7 Wall St. asked Corebrand, the brand research and consulting firm, to look at the top 100 brands based their contribution to market capitalizaton. Using this method, the hardest working brand was Hershey (NYSE:HSY), followed  by Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)

Corebrand described the process briefly to 24/7 Wall. St.

24/7 Wall St.: Corebard often refers to the brands on this list as the”hardest working brands”. How did you come to that description?

Corebrand: There are a lot of people measuring and examining the “strongest brands” or the “most valuable brands”.  Our opinion is that examining one without the other is somewhat meaningless.  How “strong” a brand is nice to know but not very relevant unless you understand how that strength benefits business.  Similarly, “value” is little more than a measure of corporate size unless you understand the drivers of that value and how to influence it. By examining the strength of the brand and it’s contribution to total market value, we can help companies and their leadership manage that strength and value over time.

24/7 Wall St.: Is there any advantage or disadvantage to having a brand value be a very large percentage of market cap in the present and as an indication of a company’s future performance?

Corebrand: The brand will need to be in balance with the rest of the company’s assets.  A company should strive to have it’s brand strong enough to fend off competitors or changing market conditions but not so strong that it becomes overly dependent on the brand as a single driver of value.  If a company can achieve and maintain its appropriate maximum strength without becoming over-dependent, it will see greater returns in bull markets and retain greater value in bear markets.

The list:

Each year, on a rolling basis, CoreBrand conducts 8,000 telephone interviews among business leaders to measure their perceptions of some of the world’s best corporate brands. Respondents are business decision-makers from the top 20% of U.S. businesses.

This senior business audience (VP level and above) represents the investment community, potential business partners, and business customers across 49 key industries. 400 respondents rate each company per year; 800 companies are measured each year. Our reports are updated on a quarterly basis to reflect any subtle changes.

CoreBrand collects financial performance data and communications investment information to understand the support behind and impact of these brands. These corporate brand strength ratings, as well as a company’s financial data are used in CoreBrand’s statistical model to determine the percentage of market capitalization that is directly derived from the corporate brand. Once that percentage is calculated, a dollar value is assigned to the corporate brand.

The percentage of market capitalization, attributable to the corporate brand. The percentage is then translated into a dollar value, based on the current market capitalization. The analysis is examined over time, to determine if the corporate brand is a growing or declining asset.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Seva Bharati volunteers @Work

After being at the helm of many relief efforts aiding people affected by natural disasters and running social service programs under different flagship organizations, a which made it to the front page of the Indian national daily “The Telegraph” illustrates how effective and extensive Sangh Parivar has been in India. The report may become center of discussion and argument amongst the national parties as well as other politically affiliated bodies like trade unions and student bodies.

Sangh Parivar (Family of Associations) refers to an umbrella of organizations that have been started by the volunteers of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) or are inspired by its ideals. The ideology of the Sangh Parivar has been seen to have a diverse set of thoughts and opinions that has made it difficult to be categorized by the Western stereotypic divisions of ‘Leftists’ and ‘Rightists’. While some of their policies are seen as ‘Conservative’ and ‘Rightist’, on a range of different issues, they have shared similar concerns as Leftists, Liberals and the Green activists.

Sangh Parivar organizations claim that being away from power and politics has proved to be an advantage, and that the national party inspired by Sangh ideology; the Bhartiya Janta Party’s departure from the power at Centre and loss of ground in some state strongholds has actually helped Sangh. Today the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) (Indian Labor Association), the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) (All India Students Council), the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS) (Indian Farmers Association) and the Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram (A tribal welfare organization of Sangh) have high enrollments and attract sizeable volunteers.

The BMS, India’s largest trade union alone has over 10 million members. Just to compare the scale of popularity and reach of BMS the last official count by the labor ministry in 2002 had put the BMS membership had 6.2 million members while the Indian National Congress-affiliated Indian National Trade Union Congress (INTUC) had 3.8 million and the Communist Party of India’s (AITUC) had 3.3million members.

Though both the BMS and INTUC now claim the membership to be about 10 million each, when prodded about the reasons for the leap, INTUC President and Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) member G. Sanjeeva Reddy sounded cautious and said: “A Congress government at the Centre has certainly helped us make inroads into the organised and unorganised sectors.”

On the other hand BMS chief Girish Awasthi had a different viewpoint. He felt that the “government affinity” and affiliation was a hindrance rather than being of any help.

Similarly the BKS which started in 1979 with a mere 1500 members is today a body representing 900,000 members. Though the Sangh Parivar has supported the BJP due to its pro-Sangh ideology, the BKS was vocal about the seemingly anti-farmer decision of the BJP led Gujrat government’s decision to hike power tariff. So much so that after the arrest of farmers who could not pay up the dues and some BKS activists for protests the Sangh went into a sulk and in the impending elections people felt that the farmer led revolt by the Sangh could topple the BJP govt. BKS and Sangh in line with their policy to remain “neutral” in politics, didn’t work against the govt. either.

Similarly the ABVP, which is the student arm of the Sangh, is convinced that “political neutrality” is the way to success. ABVP claims membership of around 1.9 million (the Congress-backed NSUI did not reveal its figures saying its elections were on). The fact that ABVP has largest membership in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh where the BJP is almost non-existent amazes some people and disproves the claim of some organizations that Sangh Organizations don’t have widespread acceptability.

Ekal Vidyalaya

The Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram is an organization which has been working in Naxal-infested tribal areas for betterment of the tribal masses. It runs programs like schools in tribal areas and projects for socio-economic upliftment of tribal masses. It runs projects like the Ekal Vidyalaya (single teacher schools) which is like any other Sangh run project based completely on the concept of volunteer service. These schools are run in some of the most inaccessible areas where even govt. runs schools don’t exist. The Joint Secretary of the organization, Kripa Prasad Singh, is also of the view that an “apolitical” outlook was the best way of ensuring that state governments did not stand in the organization’s way. Vanvaski kalian Ashram today runs more than 14,000 seva (service) projects throughout India.

Tribal students in India are entitled to various scholarships under central and state led programs.

Seva Bharati is another Sangh affiliated body which has been rendering humanitarian services. In the recent floods that killed hundreds and affected millions of people Seva Bharati volunteers pitched in their services.

Source: my.nowpublic.com

Sangh Parivar organizations have been at the center of many blame games by many national parties and organizations of running activities that help only Hindus. Charges of religious hatred have also been leveled against the Sangh but the fact remains that none of such charges has ever been proved in any enquiry by national or international bodies. Further the rescue missions in the face of natural disasters help people across the board irrespective of their religion, caste or creed. The growing popularity and reach of Sangh also defies such claims leveled against it.

NowPublic

Reuters:   Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) beat earnings forecasts.

Reuters:   The IRS is probing some homebuyers’ tax credit gains.

Reuters:   The US is ready to bring more insider trading cases.

Reuters:   More US companies are cutting bonuses.

Reuters:   Icahn offered to underwrite a $6 billion loan to CIT (NYSE:CIT).

Reuters:   Retailers like Saks (NYSE:SKS) Macy’s (NYSE:M), and Dillard’s (NYSE:DDS) cut inventories so much that they are scrambling to buy holiday goods.

Reuters:   An IBM (NYSE:IBM) executive was put on leave after insider trading charges were filed against him.

Reuters:   Bernanke called for action on global imbalances.

Reuters:   Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) posted good profits.

Reuters:   Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) cut its forecasts.

WSJ:   Galleon holders are selling their interests in the hedge fund.

WSJ:   Changes in government healthcare policies are causing mergers within the industry.

WSJ:   Cerberus is considering an IPO of gun maker Freedom Group.

WSJ:   Employers are holding off hiring even though they have higher profits.

WSJ:   Target (NYSE:TGT) is joining Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) in an online price war.

WSJ:   Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) has introduced its own e-reader.

WSJ:   Large ad agencies urged regulators to approve a search deal between Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

WSJ:   The German government said financial aid would be available to any buyer that GM picks for Opel.

WSJ:   Sales of luxury goods are still soft.

WSJ:   Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) CEO did not know about an insider trading probe of one of his employees.

WSJ:   Sprint (NASDAQ:S) will buy iPCS for $426 million.

WSJ:   Caterpillar’s (NYSE:CAT) future is looking better.

WSJ:   Qatar’s sovereign fund is selling its stake in Barclays (NYSE:BCS) for a 750 million pound gain.

WSJ:   Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) analysts were warned to keep secrets after the Galleon probe was announced.

WSJ:   The EU’s hedging rules could hurt airlines and banks.

WSJ:   AIG (NYSE:AIG) provided another $2 billion to its aircraft leasing unit.

WSJ:   Investments in hedge funds were up in the third quarter.

WSJ:   China will set tariffs on Nylon.

WSJ:   Deals to increase China oil holdings are actually low.

WSJ:   Health care data company IMS Health may sell itself to private equity interests.

WSJ:   Luxury goods sales may not recover until 2012.

WSJ:   Third quarter earnings will show if there is increasing demand for goods and services.

WSJ:   The New York Times (NYSE:NYT) cut 100 editorial jobs.

NYT:   A thin line separates insider trading from research.

NYT:   Bernanke says Asia economies are raising world out of trouble.

NYT:   Former News Corp (NYSE:NWS) executives are advising Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) as it looks at buying content properties

NYT:   The FDA turned down a new Amgen (NYSE:AMGN) bone drug.

NYT:   The Fed is preparing a plan to drain cash from banks if inflation begins.

FT:   Diesel stock piles could curb crude’s rally.

Bloomberg:   Federal officials told Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) that a deal to buy Merrill Lynch would help its shares.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The competition in the e-reader and e-book industries gets more brutal by the day. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the e-reader leader because of the success of its Kindle. Other companies including Sony (NYSE:SNE) have come out with products of their own and price cuts have already begun, presumably as a tactic to gain market share.

The e-book business is also becoming much more competitive. The largest book retailer in the country, Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS), has increased its presence in the sector in which Amazon is the clear leader. Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has announced that it will launch an online bookstore.

Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), which has one of the most visited e-commerce sites in the US, has launched a new program to sharply increase it market share in the e-book business.

Walmart.com is offering ten upcoming blockbuster titles at $9 each, which is nearly 70% off of the retail price of most of the books. The list includes new books from Sarah Palin, John Grisham, and Michael Crichton. Each is schedule to be released in the next few weeks.

The move is clearly trying to take customers from Amazon. Many of its best-sellers are priced at $9.99.

Wal-Mart’s new pricing program comes as the holiday season swings into gear and the world’s largest retailer attempts to take market share from a number of large rivals. Its new “100 Toys for under $10″ will almost certainly hurt companies like Target (NYSE:TGT).

Wal-Mart may be losing money on its books and toys programs. It has the balance sheet to take the risk that customers who buy books and toys will also buy other items for the holidays. But, the consequences go beyond that. The public will now expect e-books to be priced under $10 forever. That may not be financially realistic for sellers and companies like Barnes & Noble, which get almost all of their revenue from book sales, could find that the price war backs them into a corner which it cannot get out of.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Too many companies want to compete with Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) relatively successful Kindle unit, although investors are concerned that the devices, priced at $249, will never have mass market appeal.

Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) is in the process of launching an e-reader to help it sell electronic content. The chain needs something to offset falling store sales.

Sony (NYSE:SNE) has entered the market for e-readers.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) will use its technology a massive user base to open its own e-book store. According to Reuters, “Google plans to launch an online store to deliver electronic books to any device with a Web browser.” Publishers will keep 63% of the revenue from content.

The field is getting too crowded both in the e-reader and e-book sector. That means a lot of companies are going to lose money

Douglas A. McIntyre

Długo czekaliśmy na kolejne zwycięstwo naszej drużyny. Udało się wreszcie przełamać passę dotkliwych porażek. Po akcji Marka Jędrzejewskiego z Arturem Zieliński zdobyliśmy bramkę na wagę trzech bardzo cennych punktów. Humory powróciły.

Wkrótce więcej o meczu.

Reuters:   Chinese investors are holding a large amount of gold.

Reuters:   Bernanke sees tighter policies as the economy improves.

Reuters:   The Congressional Oversight Panel says that the US plan to help homeowners with mortgages is not enough.

Reuters:   The FDIC questioned a review of Citigroup (NYSE:C) management.

Reuters:   News Corp (NYSE:NWS) CEO Murdoch called on China to open it markets to the media.

Reuters:   A pension fund has asked the pay czar to cut retirement benefits to Bank of America’s (NYSE:BAC) Lewis.

Reuters:   Obama is facing pressure for action on the economy.

Reuters:   Tengzhong may close a deal to buy Hummer from GM

Reuters:   Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) production rose last quarter.

WSJ:   Economists believe unemployment will stay high through 2013.

WSJ:   Many retailers’ sales topped estimates.

WSJ:   The US did little as the dollar continued to fall.

WSJ:   Geithner speaks often to the senior managements at Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).

WSJ:   Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) plans an e-book reader.

WSJ:   Mainframes remain a profitable business for IBM (NYSE:IBM).

WSJ:   Renaissance Technologies founder James Simons will retire next year.

WSJ:   Monsanto (NSYE:MON) received an antitrust inquiry from Justice.

WSJ:   Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is cutting some ties with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

WSJ:   The EU and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) are still fighting over details of an antitrust deal.

WSJ:   GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GKS) has built itself into a pandemic prevention company.

WSJ:   LBO deals have much less leverage this year.

WSJ:   Shares in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK) still lag the DJIA.

WSJ:   Fixed income units at banks are likely to drive quarterly profits, especially at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM).

WSJ:   Vivendi is ready to sell its stake in GE’s (NYSE:GE)  NBCU

WSJ:   Marriott (NYSE:MAR) posted a loss and voiced concerns about future earnings.

WSJ:   Beijing Automotive plans global expansion.

NYT:   The FDA may need a bailout.

NYT:   The Fed is split over the timing of a rate rise.

NYT:   Boeing (NYSE:BA) could be a big loser as the military cuts spending.

NYT:   Retail sales last month only reached 2005 levels.

NYT:   Wynn’s (NASDAQ:WYNN) Macau listing soared.

NYT:   Prescription drug revenue is expected to fall.

NYT:   Faniie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) continue to struggle.

FT:   Larry Summers stressed the need for support of the dollar.

FT:   California cut the size of a bond deal.

Bloomberg:   Summers rejected slow growth as the “new normal”

Douglas A. McIntyre

Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon (NYSE:AMZN), is being praised as the man who has invented the next big and important electronic device. That category includes the Sony (NYSE:SNE) PS2, the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPod, and the Nintendo Wii. The iPod has sold 200 million units worldwide. That, in the nomenclature of the electronics industry, makes it a once in a generation success, a truly mass market product.

Bezos lowered the price on the Kindle to $249 from $299 and Amazon will release a version this month that can work over wireless networks in 100 countries. There is some compelling research that says people will not pay over $200 for an e-reader or even over $100. That has not prevented Sony and Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) from entering the e-reader industry. Rumors are that Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp (NYSE:NWS) will come out with a product of its own.

The Kindle’s challenge to reach 100 million sales may not have to do with price primarily. It will probably have more to do with people’s media consumption habits. More and more consumers listen and watch media now rather than reading it. Much of the reason for the rise of the iPod and other multimedia devices is that a growing number of people, particularly younger people, would rather have passive engagement with media than active participation. Listening to music involves nearly no intellectual effort. Reading is an art, at least to the extent that it requires years of preparation and practice to read well enough to go through a metropolitan daily paper or “The Great Gatsby.”

The National Endowment for the Arts recently pointed out that “The U.S. population now breaks into two almost equally sized groups – readers and non-readers.” The percentage of people who read literature has dropped sharply from 1982 to 2008 according to the NEA data. A study by the Carnegie Foundation found that only 8% of people under 34 years of  age would use newspapers for information in the future. That is not news to anyone in the newspaper industry who watches dropping paid circulation trends for the printed paper and anemic growth in online readership. Part, if not most of the reason for this, is that one in three people in high school drops out before graduation and in some urban areas the figure is closer to 50%.

Less than a year ago, Apple announced that its iTunes store had passed five billion song downloads since its launch in April 2003.  Apple has been smart about pricing the iPod. Almost anyone can buy one, because a reasonably featured version costs as little as $79 and will hold 1,000 songs. Apple has not changed media consumption; it has just taken advantage of people’s new habits.

The rise of television did not do the book and newspaper industries any good, but probably did them little harm. Magazines like “Life” thrived well into the 1960s. “Time” and “BusinessWeek “prospered well into the last decade. Newspapers reached peaks of both circulation and adverting revenue in just the last ten years.

It is not shocking that the iPod was released in 2001 and that the popularity of video game consoles like  Sony PlayStation, Nintendo Wii, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Xbox rose sharply at about the same time. It appears that the turn of the century was about the time that reading habits began to turn sharply, too. Fewer people are well educated and fewer of the educated seem interested in reading. Book stores and newspapers are closing. The iPod is nearly ubiquitous among the young and middle aged.

The Kindle is the product of remarkable inventiveness and it will almost certainly do well. Wall St. research firm Cowen & Co predicted that there will be 1.5 million active Kindle units in the US by the end of this year.  By the end of next year, that number should be closer to three million. But, even with quickening demand, the Kindle’s market penetration among US adults is only expected be 4% five years from now. That is shameful in a country where every eight year old child has a phone that can access the internet.

The enemy to Amazon’s ingenuity is stunning growth in indifference about reading, at least among those who can read.

Douglas A. McIntyre

W dniu jutrzejszym czeka na bardzo trudne spotkanie z drużyną rezerw AKS II Mikołów. Nasz kolejny rywal w ostatniej kolejce pokonał na wyjeździe silną drużynę rezerw Katowickiej Gieksy w stosunku 1:4. Bramki zdobyli Nowak 3 oraz Jastrzębski. W sezonie 2008/2009 dwukrotnie spotkaliśmy się z naszym najbliższym rywalem przegrywając na wyjeździe 3:1 i remisując u siebie 1:1. Bramka Marcina Stawiarskiego asysta Tomka Nowaka.

Nasz rywal w obecnym sezonie rozegrał pięć spotkań z których jeden wygrał, jeden zremisował oraz trzy przegrał. W ligowej tabeli zajmuje 11 miejsce. Stosunek bramek 7-11.

Mam nadzieję że po tym spotkaniu trzy punkty zostaną w Katowicach i kolejny tydzień spędzimy na treningach w doskonałych nastrojach.

Mecz z Górnikiem 09 Mysłowice naszym kolejnym przeciwnikiem mógł wydawać się meczem z łatwym przeciwnikiem. Niektórzy z Nas dopisali już 3 punkty przed samym spotkaniem myśląc że przeciwnicy oddadzą ten mecz bez walki. Nic z tego. Sam mecz należał do tych o których należy jak najszybciej zapomnieć. Przeciwnicy przyjechali z nastawieniem wywiezienia choć jednego punktu i byli bardzo blisko osiągnięcia korzystnego rezultatu. Goście nastawieni na kontry czekali na nasze błędy, my natomiast nie potrafiliśmy narzucić im swojego stylu gry. Bramki zdobyliśmy po indywidualnych akcjach Artura Zielińskiego który przy pierwszej sytuacji wykorzystał błąd bramkarza, a przy drugiej pokonał go w sytuacji sam na sam.

Artur w akcji

Ważne jest to że do końca wierzyliśmy w dobry rezultat i dążyliśmy do strzelenia brami na wagę trzech punków. Udało się to w 85 minucie spotkania. Takie mecze kiedy ”nie idzie” musimy wygrywać nawet wtedy kiedy gramy słabo. Dziękuje za kolejne trzy punkty. Być Waszym kapitanem to zaszczyt.

Panie sędzio ewidenty karny krzyczy Artur faulowany w polu karnym

Teraz przed nami mecz z Jastrzębiem Bielszowice. Operację Jastrząb zaczynamy jutro o 18.30. Jedziemy tam po… każdy wie!!!