Super candid blue-streak thrashing on behalf of Pincers. Even included this air punch/swim thing in his freak out. After the F-word there was something about “three straight” and it kind of trailed off from there. (The audio guy in the truck either spit up coffee on his monitors or the director slapped him upside the head.) “Three straight” of course referred to the three false starts committed by his big fellas up front before slinking off the field for a Matt Prater field goal. The second in as many red zone trips. When it first happened, the NFL Network aired it, showed the kickoff, then went to commercial. And we were thinking: “Wow, that’s actually pretty cool. The NFLN is kinda pushing a progressive production here. Like the FX Network or something.” Then they come back with profuse apologies and it was clear it was just another production blunder. Did you see the shot of a cameraman’s foot next to some cable? How about those glitching bumps in and out of commercials? These combined with Matt Millen’s nonsensical ramblings and Madden-posing, whatever that goober’s name is who rolls with Millen in the booth, and the production wasn’t exactly on its game Thursday night. As for Pincers’ spaz? Rad. Pure radness. Love it when these Napoleon types hit Rage Factor. Especially when it’s finally associated with the until-this-year Orange Ponies. Love these signals of aggressive football that continue to percolate from the entire Broncos 09 presentation, win or lose. Pincers is decidedly New School with his emotions in the pro game. But above all there is still plenty of Old School in there. And he might even be a tough lil bastard himself. He led his streaking squad off the schnide on Turkey Day with a 20-point blowout of Big Blue.

Machine Shop Ear-Bender: So we were doin’ paramedical work in affiliation with the state highway system. Not actual practice, you understand. And me & Bill were patrolling down Nine Miles.H.I.: Bill Roberts? Machine Shop Ear-Bender: No, not that mother-scratcher. Bill Parker. Anyway, we’re approaching the wreck, and there’s this spherical object a restin’ in the highway. And it’s not a piece of the car.

(Too bandwagony? Sure, we called them a team of slappies two weeks ago. Which is true. Name us an All-World front seven player on D. Kay. We said watching them play last was like having the swine flu. It was. We are still pissed about that San Diego game. Still confused how you can play at home for first place in the division and deliver such a stinky wad of cheese. But c’mon! Doesn’t mean the love isn’t there. We bleed it, bitches. Two words: born, raised. Nuff said ball in.)

After the game, when asked about the MFer, Pincers sorta shrugged, said “doesn’t surprise me, it’s the NFL network,” then annoyingly turned away from the questioner. A shot at the Network? We’re not sure. We think he was most likely confused by the question since he wasn’t sure what had happened at that point (and he explained as much in other moments of the presser). His mind was processing the question, expecting a game Q, then when he realized it was a trivial matter, he simply brushed it off … Or … Maybe he does hold a bit of a grudge because of the way the Network portrayed him during the Cutler Fiasco, then his draft, then Brandon Marshall, then the parade of Bronco hate Jamie Dukes and crew marched onto the set on a daily basis preceding the season. So much so that national media random Rod Smith was put on-set to defend his franchise during the same timeframe. (Whereupon he of course had to rebuke a deluge of Duke’s exasperation when suggesting the Broncos were an inept franchise and Pincers was to blame.) Pincers has all but admitted he reads the writers and watches the coverage. He snapped about a couple things during OTA’s and camp. Have you ever heard him on Rome? He knows. And in those early days of spring and through the preseason, the Network had him on a spit with the flame turned to HIGH.

Pincers’ national unleashing was fitting during a week in which Brian Dawkins called a Three Mile Island. A Three Mile Island is the requisite “players only meeting” amidst a complete meltdown. Post Sand Diego definitely qualified. In fact, we even wondered about it. After the Redskins slap we figured it would be any day now. It always happens, every sport, and it always makes headlines. That’s right, Bob, I am standing outside the very auditorium where Brian Dawkins, today, called a Three Mile Island. Players would not comment on what exactly was said, however. Saying only: It was a meeting, it was for players, we spoke to and amongst one another for an extended period of time. If the outcome of the game is any kind of metric, it worked this week for Denver.

Three Mile Island accident: On March 29, 1979, there was a cooling system malfunction that caused a partial meltdown of the reactor core. This loss of coolant accident resulted in the release of a significant amount of radioactivity. The nuclear power industry claims that there were no deaths, injuries or adverse health effects from the accident, but a peer-reviewed study by Steven Wing of the University of North Carolina found that lung cancer and leukemia rates were 2 to 10 times higher downwind of TMI than upwind, and also showed that there was plant and animal chromosomal damage, but without considering the effects of stress or improved screening. In addition, the Radiation and Public Health Project reported a spike in infant mortality in the downwind communities two years after the accident.

To anyone with eyes and ears, Denver’s Pig Warfare was obviously back in form. Both lines were outstanding. Denver rushed 40 times, New York 16. Nuff said. But was it Denver’s dominance or the Giants’ indifference that defined the outcome? The Giants finished playing last Sunday afternoon (early game) at home with an overtime win against Atlanta. They traveled on Wednesday. It’s a lengthy flight, it was a holiday, they were paved over from the first snap. It was abuse. Generally speaking, they don’t suck that bad. Generally speaking, the Broncos aren’t that good. Transit and turkey aren’t worth the entire 20 points, but they’re worth a chunk of it. The Giants weren’t all there. They checked out when they checked their bags.

The Denver run game was fairly explanatory: pound the edge so as to avoid the teeth of the Giant D, the front-four. They ran zone block for the most part but were pulling the guard on a lot of inside runs. Lots of fullback in there, too, and the backs seemed very patient in following Spencer Larson to the hole. Whatever the method, they were moving at will. (The obligatory penalties of course disrupted their share of drives. Were we the only ones a bit frustrated with the one-sidedness and outright jobs with which the refs officiated? Came off a bit intrusive at times. Like an NBA game. After a decade-plus of Shanny’s cut-blocking zone schemes, seems like Denver’s offensive line is still a target.)

Knowshon Moreno had a good game but we could feel 70,000-plus people shudder whenever he wrapped his unaccountable arms around the ball. 2.4% of the time, he fumbles every time. Four fumbles on 161 carries. Dude has a way to go before he earns our trust (or a belief in his open field running ability). Ran over a safety, though. Exploded through Michael Johnson for a first down in the first quarter. Seems to have a better sense of the marker these days, too. Nonetheless, still pure rookie. (Fine, he’s rad. It’s clear he’s rad. He might even be really good some day. As our friend JJ explains about gambling: “Winning is like a chocolate mousse. But then it’s gone. Losing burns a hole deep inside you. And it stays.” Those four fumbles, especially the goal line fail … still burns.)

Epic dunce

And of course the D shelved the about-to-explode look if only for a week. Just as it’s painful to watch bad defense, it’s so much fun to watch good defense. Three-and-outs, fumbles, interceptions, sacks, 27 yards on the ground for big boy back Brandon Jacobs. That was fun. Millen was beside himself explaining Denver’s tight coverage. Eli was 100% confused cracker all night. Elvis Dumervil’s monster strip sack—steps into it, both arms cocked back like a bear, ball comes rifling out—was an impressive moment. Secondary was 1/3 on pick-opps and Dawkins made those young receivers think twice about coming into his world. (Still can’t believe how he clubs his opponent after initial contact on the way to the ground. We love it. A lot! But … yikes, dog.)

Who knows why Denver’s D was able to do this at home against the New York Football Giants and not against the Bolts and Steelers, or on the road against those crappy Maryland teams. It cannot simply lie in the balance of talent. If that were the case Baltimore and Washington would have fallen easily. The intangible matrix counts for so much and it’s tenuous. It can disappear for 4/5ths of an entire month. Perhaps the Three Mile Island has them hooked back in for the final five weeks.

All things being equal, it should be a cakewalk in Kansas City next week. A good ole fashioned Midwest contest set to music with a cake as a prize for executing the most elaborate or amusing walking steps. Should be. But we Broncos aficionados are all too familiar with the Bermuda Triangle wasteland of lameness that is western Missouri in December. Really dislike that town. Really think Chiefs fans are dorks with good BBQ recipes. There’s no reason to view last week’s game as a precedent. Pittsburgh had that game locked up in so many ways yet lost due to injuries and a bit of bad luck at the end … wait, that’s not the precedent, is it?

Kansas City is like the sniper at the end of Stanley Kubrick’s Full Metal Jacket. A passionate threatened peasant, possessing homefield advantage, outmatched in every other facet. In other strategic circumstances she’d be harmless, yet she continues to pick off victims.

Private Cowboy: I’ve seen this before, that sniper is just trying to suck us in one at a time!

After getting sucked into her trap and sustaining losses, Private Cowboy’s platoon eventually overcomes her with sheer firepower. Yet even in the end, almost dead, she continues to take victims and was booby-trapped when they found her. Moments from death, looking up at her enemy, she pleads for mercy: Shoot… me, sh-oooot… me… Private Joker, the inwardly conflicted man of duality, obliges.

Private Rafterman: Hey Joker, we ought to put you up for the congressional medal of… ugly! Haha!
Donlon: Hard core, man. Hard core.

Kansas City is that wounded cornered sniper in her last moments. Sh-oooot… me… At 3-7 her primary objective is drawing in the enemy by showing her mortality then taking them with her as she goes. Denver has the firepower to overcome and there is no way the mere fact they are playing on a frozen llano in the middle of nowhere in December should make any difference whatsoever. Yet it almost always does. Pincers would be advised not to let his men rush in like Cowboy did, and he will need to do his best Private Joker and put her out of her misery when he has the chance. Otherwise he could take on more losses. With Indy and Philly still to go, and with 10 wins most likely needed for the fabled berth, that can’t happen.

Private Joker: Graduation is only a few days away, and the recruits of Platoon 3092 are salty. They are ready to eat their own guts and ask for seconds. The drill instructors are proud to see that we are growing beyond their control. The Marine Corps does not want robots. The Marine Corps wants killers. The Marine Corps wants to build indestructible men, men without fear.

]]> http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/spread-em-week-12-nfl-picks/ Sat, 28 Nov 2009 02:39:30 +0000 Andrew Zercie http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/spread-em-week-12-nfl-picks/

Brady and the Pats have their hands full this week.

Off to a solid 2-1 start for week 12, thanks to the Packers and Broncos, I’m hoping to see that success continue into the rest of the weekend. It’s been a while since I’ve scored a big week I must admit. Following an 8-8 week 11 showing, and the 2-1 start to this week, my record on the season is now 93-70, which isn’t bad. However, after starting off hot, I’ve essentially been a 50-50 bettor in the last month or so.

For those who might be interested, here’s my picks for Thursday’s games:

http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/pass-the-gravy-thanksgiving-day-picks/

As always, remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only. Here’s the remainder of week 12 now:

Houston (+3.5) over Indianapolis

The Texans are talented enough to knock off the Colts. They are also maddeningly inconsistent and highly untrustworthy, if you’re planning on gambling on them.

When these teams played each other three weeks ago, the Texans had the Colts on the ropes, but between penalties and turnovers, Houston sabotaged their chances of pulling off the upset.

Knowing the Texans, it’s more likely they’ll find a way to lose than pull out the win. Their season has been littered with close calls. Four of their five losses have been by a touchdown or less. I’m betting on them to cover, nothing more.

Colts 24, Texans 21

Cleveland (+14) over Cincinnati

I suppose the Bengals were due for a clunker. Cedric Benson was unavailable for last week’s stinker against the Raiders, and that played a huge role in the outcome of the game.

In fact, the Bengals’ fortunes have been tied directly to how Benson has played. In Cincinnati’s eight wins, Benson has averaged over four yards per carry. In the Bengals’ other two losses, Benson was under four yards per carry. That seems to be Cincinnati’s barometer for success.

Of course, that may not matter much against the Browns, who are among the worst teams in the league and lost a heart-breaker last week to the Lions. Still, assuming Benson plays hurt and the Browns follow up last week’s performance with another strong game, I see Cleveland covering here.

Bengals 27, Browns 17

Minnesota (-11) over Chicago

Remember at the beginning of the season, when the Bears were going to contend for the NFC North title?  Jay Cutler’s been one of the big culprits in the Bears’ lost season but, at the same time, Matt Forte’s disappearance and some key injuries haven’t helped matters.

Chicago’s road woes will definitely continue this week. The Bears are 1-4 on the road, and Cutler’s interception issues are at their worst away from Soldier Field.

The Vikings have played dominant football lately, and Brett Favre has become part of the story instead of hogging the headlines. Some believe the Vikings are the best team in the NFL. While I’m not that much of a believer in them, this should be a relatively easy win for them.

Vikings 31, Bears 17

Philadelphia (-9) over Washington

Washington is down to their third string running back (Rock Cartwright), and their offense is limited already to begin with. The Redskins will need to throw the ball in order to score points, something they’ve been unable to do all season.

The Eagles will be without Brian Westbrook as well, but LeSean McCoy has proven to be a capable fill-in.

It will be interesting to see if the Eagles’ wide receivers can make some big plays against a Redskins’ passing defense that has allowed fewer than 200 yards passing on average. If DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can break free for some big gains, this game will be a blowout, because the Redskins are unlikely to match the Eagles’ firepower on offense.

Eagles 27, Redskins 9

Miami (-3) over Buffalo

The Dolphins have rallied from an 0-3 start to 5-5 on the season, and a win over the Bills would put them squarely in the playoff picture in the AFC.

The Bills have become a train wreck. The once-proud franchise is on their second coach of the season, has an unsettled quarterback situation, and has basically become irrelevant on the NFL landscape.

I doubted the Dolphins last week, after they lost Ronnie Brown for the season. I won’t make the same mistake this week.

Dolphins 28, Bills 17

Even the normally impartial are swooning over Vince Young these days.

Tennessee

(-2.5) over Arizona

The Vince Young Comeback Tour is so amazing, even referees can’t stop themselves from getting swept up in the euphoria, as evidenced by the picture to the right.

The Cardinals’ run defense will get a challenge from Titans’ RB Chris Johnson, who has an outside shot at a 2,000 yard season. The game will come down to how well Arizona can contain Johnson. If Johnson and the Titans can sustain long drives and keep the Cardinals’ offense off the field, they’ll win.

As great as Arizona has been against the run, and as great as they’ve played on the road this year, it seems that the Titans have momentum, along with Johnson and a rejuvenated Young, on their side. I’m not betting against them here.

Titans 27, Cardinals 21

St. Louis (+3) over Seattle

It appears Mike Holmgren knew what he was doing when he walked away from the Seattle Seahawks after last season. With each passing week, it seems the Seahawks get worse. In the final game of a three-game road swing, the Seahawks get their best shot at their first win away from Seattle all season (they’re 0-5 thus far).

Of course, this matchup represents the best chance for the Rams to win a home game this season. Additionally, the Rams haven’t beaten the Seahawks since a January 2005 playoff game in Seattle. Since then, St. Louis is 0-9 against the Seahawks.

The best player on either team is the Rams’ Stephen Jackson, and Seattle hasn’t done well against the run for much of the season. I’ll bet on Jackson and the Rams to come out on top this week.

Rams 17, Seahawks 14

Atlanta (-12) over Tampa Bay

Sure, Atlanta’s lost four of their last five, but the Falcons are 4-0 at home. Beginning with this week’s game against the Buccaneers, Atlanta begins a crucial three-game homestand. This is a game the 5-5 Falcons absolutely have to have.

Tampa Bay seems to be the perfect foil for a Falcons team desperate for a win. The Buccaneers are a team building for the future and they start a rookie at quarterback. I view this as an opportunity for the Falcons to get back on track. They need it, if they view themselves as a serious playoff contender.

Falcons 31, Buccaneers 13

Carolina (+3) over NY Jets

This game features two 4-6 teams with turnover-prone quarterbacks and offenses built around strong running games.

I hate picking the Panthers, but I believe in the Jets even less. They have lost six of their last seven and seem to be in a tailspin. There is no safe pick here, but the Panthers have the veteran quarterback and coach, while the Jets have rookies in both spots. Perhaps that will make a difference in the outcome.

Panthers 24, Jets 13

Jacksonville (+3) over San Francisco

The Jaguars and 49ers are teams that play close games, for the most part, and the spread reflects that. It also reflects the Jags’ penchant for playing down to their competition lately; they’ve beaten the Bills, Chiefs and Jets respectively by a combined eight points over the last three weeks.

The 49ers have the necessary ingredients to beat the Jaguars. They run the ball well and play solid defense against the run.

I’m surprised the Jaguars are 6-4 and in the mix for a wildcard berth in the AFC at this point. They’ve survived against some awful teams in the last few weeks, and I’m betting this week, on the road, 3,000 miles from home, all the close calls catch up to them. However, as is the nature of these two teams, I’m expecting yet another tight game.

49ers 21, Jaguars 20

Kansas City (+13.5) over San Diego

After a week filled with stories of how the Chargers have regained their mojo, and how the Broncos have collapsed yet again, San Diego goes home to take on the Chiefs.

There is no doubt that the Chargers are hot, having won five straight. Still, they don’t run the ball well, and San Diego was lucky to eek out wins against the Giants and Raiders during their hot streak. I’m not sold on them as a two-touchdown favorite against anyone.

Divisional games go beyond the gambling point spread sometimes. The Chiefs have won two straight themselves, including a surprising, and rousing, win over the Steelers last week. They won’t win this game, but they’ll put up more of a fight than many think.

Chargers 27, Chiefs 17

Baltimore (-2.5) over Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger wants to play against the Ravens, despite suffering a concussion last week. The Steelers, sitting at 6-4, need Roethlisberger to play in this, the first of two matchups against the Ravens this season.

Baltimore, at 5-5, need this game to draw even in the standings with Pittsburgh and push themselves back in the playoff picture. When it gets this deep into the season, most often than not the desperate team wins. The Ravens are at home and are desperate. Enough said.

Ravens 24, Steelers 18

Monday Night

New England (+2.5) over New Orleans

The Patriots and Saints are similarly explosive on offense. Many are predicting a shootout in this one.

In fact, viewers could see a game similar to the one played two weeks ago between the Patriots and Colts, in which Bill Belichick made his controversial decision to try for a first down on a 4^th-and-2 at their 28 yard line. When that failed, the Colts drove for the winning touchdown.

Their recent close calls against teams such as the Rams and Panthers lead me to believe the Saints are ripe to suffer their first loss.

Patriots 34, Saints 31

Thanksgiving was yesterday and I have so very much to be thankful for.  I hope all of you took a moment to realize how good your life is-I may not  know you but if you are reading this I guess you are better off than 99% of the world’s population.  It was great to have family around and friends on the Motorola Droid (shameless plug) to share the day with.

I was not able to run in Peoria’s turkey trot yesterday due to my hip, I really think I am headed back to the physical therapist. For those of you who did run in a turkey trot, good job.  You earned those calories you consumed in the afternoon and evening!  Me, I just consumed.

Thank goodness the losing streak is over, but I don’t know if it is in time to catch the dreaded Chargers.  Hopefully they can keep it up and nab the wild-card if they don’t take 1st place back.   It was a pretty good game that the defense really dominated, which I did not expect at all. What can you say about Brandon Marshall, except give him a contract extension…NOW! 

And then we have coach McD.  I will admit, I was so wrong about this guy before the season started.  I even sent an email to Pat Bowlen telling him what a stupid mistake he made.  Now the Broncs are way overachieving and Cutler is in Chicago losing, throwing interceptions left and right, and costing yet another coach his job.

-

McDaniels is winning games (Coach of the year anyone?) and ripping into his players when it is needed. “All we’re trying to do is win a mother fu@kin’ game!” I am glad he got all over them for those stupid 3 false start penalties as I was screaming at my TV about it.

Bonus clip…

What’s left to cover…hmm.  Broncos, check.  Thanksgiving, check.  Cutler sucks, check.  Oh yeah…BEER!

We had many different beers over the day yesterday.  Everything from Belgian wheats to Great Divide (several of my favorites), Oskar Blues Ten Fidy, Breckenridge Brewing’s Vanilla Porter, Sierra Nevada, Hoegaarden, Deschutes Holiday Ale, and a bunch of good stuff I had not heard of or tried before, and even the taste of the Rockies, Coors Light.

So that is about it for now.  I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, and I hope all of you have a great holiday season full of joy, great running and biking, and many great beers.  Oh yeah, I will be brewing at the end of December as I am getting a primo home brew set up for Christmas.  Lots of hoppy IPA’s and craziness will follow.

Ok, one last bonus picture.

Now playing on iTunes: Bjork – All Is Full Of Love
via FoxyTunes

The Broncos squared off against the New York Giants Thanksgiving night after losing the division to the Chargers only 4 days earlier. The Broncos Offensive Line even with our third string Right Tackle in for a good amount of the game dominated throughout, and the offense as a whole looked very sharp. 

Kyle Orton threw a touchdown and an interception as the Broncos snapped their 4 game losing streak and took a step closer to taking back the division. Knowshon Moreno had probably one of his best game this year, running for 83 yards and a touchdown. He probably would have ran for more though had he not left in the 4th quarter with an arm/shoulder injury. He came back though a bit later so there is no need to be worried.

This puts the Broncos record at 7-4 for the season. You could tell from the intensity of the players, especially from Brian Dawkins that the team only meeting this week really worked and helped their chemistry a lot. 

And the intensity that Brian Dawkins showed spread through the defense. It’s the best we have played in weeks, not allowing a single point in the first half. They didn’t let a touchdown up the entire day either. It was a convincing win in every single definition of the word. I can’t wait to see us in the next few weeks. 

The Broncos are on the comeback track and if we play the way we did tonight, the division should be ours. Let’s see how it goes though. I just am a lot less skeptical of McDaniels and the team as a whole. Until next week, go Broncos!!!

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there who realizes, like me, that Thanksgiving is meant to be for three things: Family, Food, and Football.  Once again this year, we get a triple-header to feast on (Well, as long as you have NFL Network or live in or around New York or Denver.). Then on Sunday and Monday Night, we get our usual helping for games from around the league, topped off by the big game this week as the Saints host the Patriots in the Big Easy.  So before you go into your tryptophan-induced comas, here are the Week 12 picks.  Last week: 11-5. Season: 84-73-1 (.535)

Thanksgiving Games
Packers (-11) at Lions: The annual Turkey Day showdown between these two teams kicks off a real yawner of a holiday in terms of the matchups.  There’s a ton of concerns for the Lions with respect to the shoulder of Matt Stafford and the Packers need to keep winning if they expect to win the NFC Wild Card.  The Pack should win easy in Detroit.

Raiders (+14) at Cowboys: I fully expect the Cowboys to beat the Oakland Raiders, especially considering that they still have a full complement of running backs, unlike the Bengals who were stunned in the Black Hole last week.  However, I think Oakland will come out playing very hard in this one and Bruce Gradkowski is trying to earn himself a shot at an NFL job for next season.  It’ll be closer than you think.

Giants (-7) at Broncos: In a matchup of two teams that are in dire need of wins, the G-Men seem to have a lot more composure than the suddenly dysfunctional Broncos, who are looking to avoid their fifth-straight loss and completely erase a 6-0 start.  If the Giants’ pass rush is as bad as its been in recent games, expect Brandon Marshall to have a big day, but I would still expect New York to pull this one out easily.

Sunday
Buccaneers (+13) at Falcons: There’s really nothing going right for the Atlanta Falcons right now. Matt Ryan has been less than stellar and Michael Turner is banged up.  Tampa Bay seems to have found some hints of life with Josh Freeman under center.  The Falcons win it, but Tampa stays with them the whole way.

Dolphins (-4) at Bills: Last week I figured that the Phins were basically done with the loss of Ronnie Brown.  This week, I think Ricky Williams is going to carry the load once again, especially against the porous Bills run D.  Miami is on the cusp of being in the playoff mix.  They should get into the thick of the discussion after this one.

Browns at Bengals (-14): The Browns mustered 37 points last week in their loss to Detroit.  I’d be surprised to see them score 37 points in all of their remaining games combined.  Plus this week they get to face a very angry Cincy squad that’s coming off an unacceptable loss to the Raiders of all teams.  Cincy will reassert itself as the best team in the AFC North this week.

Seahawks at Rams (+3): This game is a complete pillow fight, but I’ve liked what St. Louis has done the last couple of weeks. It’s amazing that, even though the season is over, they keep playing so hard. I think they’ll be rewarded with win #2 on Sunday.

Panthers (+3) at Jets: Has anyone been watching the Jets the last two months? They’re playing they way a rookie coach and QB combination should be expected to play.  They might not win another game for the rest of the season.  Maybe Rex Ryan will cry about that, too.

Redskins (+10) at Eagles: Two reasons to take Washington this week. The first is that they almost beat Dallas in Dallas last week (should have won, too). The second is that this is an NFC East game, and how often are these games actually blowouts?

Colts (-4) at Texans: After their loss to the Titans on Monday Night, I’m beginning to cool on the Houston Texans, who now really need a win to hang in the playoff race.  Unfortunately, they face Peyton Manning & Co, who will not lose in Houston this time around.  Way too hard to pick against Indy right now.

Chiefs at Chargers (-14): San Diego is riding one heck of a high right now after routing Denver last week.  I don’t expect them to do anything less than run away with the AFC West now, and it starts with a big win over the lowly Chiefs.

Jaguars (+4) at 49ers: Jacksonville suddenly finds itself in 2nd place in an AFC South that most expected them to finish dead last in.  San Francisco is quickly realizing the importance of needing a viable passing game in order to make the playoffs.  Jacksonville will take this one and continue it’s unlikely playoff push behind another stellar performance by Maurice Jones-Drew.

Cardinals (+2) at Titans: I know that Vince Young has lit a spark under the Tennessee Titans, but they haven’t faced an offense like the Cardinals during the winning streak.  Plus, the Cards are 5-0 on the road this year and can basically wrap up the non-competitive NFC West with a win on Sunday.

Bears at Vikings (-11): The Bears are basically in crisis mode at this point of the season, and the calls for Lovie Smith’s head have begun.  The Vikings remain one of the hottest teams in the NFL this season and a frontrunner in terms of Superbowl contenders.  The Vikes should cruise and continue on their march towards the NFC North crown and playoffs.

Steelers at Ravens (pick ‘em): Interesting stat- Troy Polamalu has missed 4 games this season. In those games, Pittsburgh is 0-4.  Also remember that one hard hit could end Ben Roethlisberger’s day and force Dennis Dixon into action. Dixon has thrown 5 career NFL passes.  Against the Ravens’ D? Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Monday Night
Patriots (+3) at Saints: I really want to take New Orleans in this game, but they have run into one of the teams I would least want to face in this part of the season.  In the last 10 years, New England in 52-10 in regular season games after Thanksgiving.  This is winning time and the Pats don’t lose very often in winning time.  It’ll be a battle, but Brady and Belichick will find a way to outwit Brees.

By Raimundo Ortiz

Thanksgiving is a time for food, family, and football.  Today, I’d like to focus on football.  I’ll tell you what to expect from the games, and what to keep your eye one to help avoid the ‘itis.

Game One: Packers vs. Lions

The Lions proved they have a pulse last week in an unexpected barn-burner against the Cleveland Browns.  Unfortunately, their statement was marred by another injury to rookie QB Matthew Stafford.  Adding inury to injury, Calvin Johnson’s status is also up in the air.

If Johnson plays, backup Daunte Culpepper’s big arm could keep Detroit competitive.  Maybe.  Some will point to Aaron Rodgers’  line’s inability to protect him as another reason the Lions could hang around and sneak an upset in on Thanksgiving.

Fret not Packers fans.  Rodgers will not have a problem carving up Detroit, pressure or not.  And for the record the Lions served up 37 points to the Browns.  Green Bay is slightly more talented.  Take Green Bay (-11.0) if you’re betting.  If not, watch for Calvin Johnson to put on a show of athleticism and Kevin Smith to take advantage of the absence of linebacker Aaron Kampman.  Too bad the Lions don’t have a defense.  If they did, they’d have a shot.

Game Two: Cowboys vs. Raiders

The Raiders would have been committing a sinful act by subjecting a large Thanksgiving audience to watching JaMarcus Russell attempt to play quarterback.  They looked great last week in upsetting the Cincinatti Bengals, a team that’s for real.  Bruce Gradkowski played well and Raider Nation had an oppurtunity to cheer for once.

Hope they enjoyed it.

Dallas has been stagnant the last two weeks offensively, and many are back to hounding Tony Romo, proclaiming Miles Austin a fluke, and not believing in the Cowboys.  Me?  I don’t really buy into America’s Team as the beast of the NFC East, but I do think they’ve got some sick weapons on offense.  And I also think the Raiders are terrible.  I’m figuring we’re gonna see a blowout in this one.

The Raiders run game is in flux, with three backs and nobody taking the reins.  They should be handing the ball off to McFadden, and using Bush and Fargas to spell the young stud.  Instead, they’re a confusing jumble with a mediocre QB and no real threats at wide receiver.

Look for Marion Barber to punish them, Felix Jones to have 1 or 2 highlight reel runs, and Roy Williams to flourish with Nnamdi Asomugah latched onto Miles Austin.  Take Dallas (-13.5) to the bank.

Game Three: Giants vs. Broncos

NOW!  Here’s a game.  I’ve never been very high on the Denver Broncos, and they’ve validated all my suspicions with their recent downturn.  However, the G-Men have serious flaws of their own.  Their pass rush has been far less formidable than the preceding two years, and their depleted secondary has given up way too many big plays.

Kyle Orton will play.  This means the Broncos have a great chance to hit it big with passes to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  They will need those two wide receivers to step up in a big way.

Conversely, the Giants will need Danny Ware to play at a starter’s level with Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot in a boot.  Brandon Jacobs needs a tag-team partner, and this is Ware’s moment in the sun.

The desperation card will be played by both teams, because both hit the rocks after fast starts and have lost their respective division leads.  The way I see it, Eli Manning led Big Blue to victory last week against Atlanta when their backs were against the wall.  Eli is at his best when the odds are stacked against him.  He is more equipped to rise to the occasion than Kyle Orton, not to mention healthier.  The Giants run game is stronger.  The Giant defense is more explosive, and their wide receivers just as efficient as the Broncos unit.  Expect it to be close, and for Eli to pull away late.  Giants win in an exciting nightcap.  Take them (-6.5).

The showdown for first place in the AFC West didn’t materialize Sunday as the San Diego Chargers put a one-sided whipping on the Denver Broncos.

The dominating 32-3 victory makes it clear that the Chargers still own the division, a message that Broncos coach Josh McDaniels may now understand.

Denver’s young coach — dubbed “The Young Punk” by MrSportsBlog — reportedly yelled “we own you” at some of the Chargers’ linebackers prior to the contest (http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/article/2009-11-22/mcdaniels-stirs-chargers-pregame-shot)

That’s not a smart move. It’s dumb when Pro Bowl-caliber players like Joey Porter do it. It’s really idiotic for a head coach to engage in that type of rhetoric.

McDaniels will awake Monday to see that his Broncos — once sitting pretty with a 6-0 record and a 3 1/2-game lead over the Chargers — now look up in the standings to see San Diego residing at the top with a 7-3 record. Denver hasn’t won since defeating the Chargers in San Diego in mid-October.

The Chargers rushed for a season-high 203 yards while winning their fifth consecutive game. The defense didn’t allow a touchdown for the first time all season.

Denver sabotaged itself early when Chris Simms was sacked by Shaun Phillips and lost the ensuing fumble to San Diego’s Steve Gregory. Failing to score on the opening drive seemed to rattle Simms, who was pulled after three series for limping starter Kyle Orton.

Orton, dealing with a left ankle injury, entered with the Chargers leading 13-0 and gave Denver’s offense an immediate spark but the drive ended without points when Knowshon Moreno lost a fumble at the goal-line that was recovered by Gregory for a touchback. Replays showed that Broncos guard Russ Hochstein knocked the ball away from Moreno by inadvertently hitting the football with his left knee.

Once the Chargers went up 20-3 with less than seven minutes to go in the third quarter, it was clear that Denver wasn’t going to stage a rally. The Broncos struggled to pass the ball downfield — Brandon Marshall had three receptions for 26 yards and Eddie Royal caught four balls for 29 yards — and scored just three points on four trips to the red zone.

Philip Rivers passed for just 145 yards but completed 17-of-22 passes and threw a 2-yard touchdown pass to Legedu Naanee. LaDainian Tomlinson had 73 yards on 20 carries and scored the 147th career touchdown of his career.

Nate Kaeding booted four field goals, linebacker Kevin Burnett had two sacks and cornerback Antonio Cromartie had an interception.

All in all, it was a complete effort by the Chargers, who host the Kansas City Chiefs next Sunday and then visit the hapless Cleveland Browns the following week. Denver plays Thanksgiving night against the New York Giants.

Based on the results of Sunday’s one-sided affair, perhaps the Young Punk ought to worry more about preparing his sinking team better in the days leading up to the game, instead of flapping his gums an hour before it starts.

All Denver owns right now is second place.

Swine flu is an infection by any one of several types of swine influenza virus. It is common in pig populations worldwide. Transmission from pigs to humans is uncommon. If transmission does occur, it is called zoonotic swine flu. The 2009 pandemic is a swine origin influenza, a virus subtype H1N1. Existing vaccines against seasonal flu provide no protection. Symptoms of zoonotic swine flu in humans are similar to those of influenza: chills, fever, sore throat, muscle pains, severe headache, coughing, weakness, vomiting, diarrhea, general discomfort.

Kind of what it’s like to watch the Broncos these days.

So discomforting, such weakness and pain. So easy to explain one half of football in a single paragraph: Milky Simms gets the ball first and hands it off seven straight times behind outstanding zone blocking for gains of 9, 8, 8, 4, 3, 8, and 2 yards. Only to have Tyler Polumbus, on second down from San Diego’s 17, let linebacker Sean Phillips into Milky’s backside and force a fumble. Phyllis Rivers promptly drives 69 yards for a touchdown. Denver then does the following on its second possession: pass for 7 yards, on second and three called for illegal motion, on second and eight pass for 3 yards, on third and five called for false start, on third and eight Milky is sacked for 7 yards. Punt, San Diego gets it at their own 43. Denver then holds on first and second down. On third and eight a familiar foe hampers Denver further: Jarvis Moss. He jumps offside. Phyllis of course converts, drives it another 34 yards, gets a field goal. Milky then goes three and out. Phyllis then drives for another field goal. Then, lo and behold … Kyle Orton, glowing with cortisone, enters the game with Zeusian effort. He laces passes for –2, 22, and 38 yards to get Denver to the four. Whereupon Knowshon Moreno of course fumbles at the goal line. Challenging the fumble costs Denver its last time out so when the defense stops Phyllis on his ensuing possession, the clock had sufficiently bled and precluded a realistic Denver scoring attempt.

13-0 at halftime.

The second half was more of the same. Including some sweet open field falling by Moreno. (How did he not score on that run? There are only so many opportunities against Phyllis & Co.)

Self inflicted wounds. A ton of bad breaks. Phyllis Rivers. Moreno the Rookie shoving Brandon Marshall in a sideline scuffle. San Diego punching it in on fourth down for its seventh score with under a minute left. Plenty of CBS score-commercial-kick-commercial combos. Doesn’t really get more sickening.

Pincers is Pincers: confusing, brilliant, weird, gutsy, maddening, capable, green, obstinate. For the amount of talent Pincers keeps standing on the sidelines while Moreno blows games on the field, these two coach and player rookies are in it together.

We’re gonna go barf.

Maybe they can figure it out while we’re away.

Feeling the symptoms? Don’t panic. You may have just watched the Denver Broncos offense bumble around a football field.

Can Johnson Lead Titans to 4th in a row?

It’s been a crazy week for me. The time needed to write 4,000 words a week on football didn’t exist, unfortunately. I hope to make it up in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, with the three games on Turkey Day.

After going 9-6 in week 10, I picked incorrectly on Thursday, as seen here:

http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/11/19/nothing-could-be-finer/

On the season, including missing on Thursday, I’m 83-62 and looking ahead to the rest of the week 11 games. Without further ado…

Home teams in bold

Detroit (-3.5) over Cleveland

Before the Lions drafted Matthew Stafford, the idea of them being more competent on the field than another team was laughable. Now, here we are, half a year later, and the Cleveland Browns are clearly below the Lions. Anything can happen, of course, but the Lions should win.

Lions 27, Browns 13

Buffalo (+9) over Jacksonville

I know the Jaguars have been better lately, and they should be able to run all over the Bills in this game. I know the Bills fired their coach this week, and Trent Edwards is unlikely to play.

I also know the Jaguars aren’t 10 points better than Buffalo. David Garrard isn’t a great QB. Their defense is average at best. I’m not sold on the Jaguars as a legitimate AFC playoff contender. They’ll win this game, and they may dominate the statistics, but they won’t get the ball in the end zone enough to cover the spread.

Jaguars 24, Bills 17

Pittsburgh (-10) over Kansas City

It’s been said that payback is a bitch. So, after losing to Cincinnati, expect the Steelers to make the Chiefs their bitches this week.

Steelers 31, Chiefs 10

Indianapolis (+1) over Baltimore

The Ravens should be pumped up for this game, and they may have enough to win. In the NFL though, when close games are decided, they are usually decided by the quarterbacks. Peyton Manning is at the top of his game.

I’m starting to wonder if the Colts will lose at all this season.

Colts 31, Ravens 27

NY Giants (-6.5) over Atlanta

The Giants are coming off their bye week, amid a flurry of questions about their four-game losing streak, and they may be facing the perfect team to cure their ills.

Atlanta hasn’t played well on the road this season, Matt Ryan in particular. Michael Turner is doubtful for the game. The Giants want to silence the doubters. This game will quiet many of them.

Giants 27, Falcons 17

San Francisco (+6.5) over Green Bay

The Packers surprised me with their effort against the Cowboys last week, and they get another home game this week against a team they probably should beat.

While I believe the Packers will likely win, I’m taking the 49ers to cover. Their defense should keep this game close, and they have an improving offense.

Packers 21, 49ers 20

Minnesota (-11) over Seattle

The Seahawks have been dreadful on the road all season, and the Vikings have been perfect at home. Minnesota’s offense is more complete and they are facing a team that knows its season is over, for all intents and purposes.

Vikings 34, Seahawks 17

Dallas (-11) over Washington

Of all the double-digit spreads this week, this one was the toughest choice for me. However, the thought of Albert Haynesworth and Clinton Portis both sitting out for the Redskins makes Dallas the prohibitive favorite the spread makes them out to be.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 13

Tampa Bay (+11.5) over New Orleans

The Saints have been dangerously close to losing the last few weeks, and have survived thus far.

They’ll win this one too, mostly because they are much more talented than Tampa Bay is. Still, the Buccaneers have played with renewed purpose since Josh Freeman took over as the starting QB. I expect that to continue this week.

Saints 31, Buccaneers 21

St. Louis (+9) over Arizona

Yes, the Cardinals have played better in the last few weeks, but I smell a trap game here.

Stephen Jackson has been huge this season for the Rams, but his efforts have gone largely unnoticed because St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the league. Arizona’s run defense has been great all season long, but I’m betting the supremely talented Jackson has a big day, and the Cardinals leave us scratching our heads yet again.

Rams 24, Cardinals 21

New England (-10.5) over NY Jets

Whenever the Patriots have found themselves the subject of controversy during the Bill Belichick era, they’ve rallied around each other and gone out on the field and dominated the opposition in most cases.

Following the Pats’ loss to the Colts last week, expect the Jets to be on the wrong end of a blowout.

Patriots 31, Jets 14

Cincinnati (-9.5) over Oakland

Next.

Denver (+3) over San Diego

Chris Simms. Kyle Orton. Either way, Denver wins.

The one-dimensional San Diego offense can be shut down by the Broncos. Champ Bailey can handle Vincent Jackson. Denver’s linebacking corps can stick with Antonio Gates.

I have faith that whomever starts at QB for the Broncos will be prepared, and Denver will rely on the run regardless. I expect a close game won late by Denver.

Broncos 24, Chargers 20

Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago

The Bears need a big performance from Jay Cutler. Their running game hasn’t produced all season and their defense isn’t as good as it used to be.

If Cutler is a franchise QB, he needs to show it this week. He’s yet to prove it to this point. It would be surprising if he flipped a switch and showed it this week.

Eagles 27, Bears 17

Monday Night

Tennessee (+5) over Houston

Vince Young’s turnaround has been aided a great deal by Chris Johnson, and the Houston Texans do not have a strong run defense. Tennessee’s defense isn’t great either, so I anticipate a high-scoring game.

It should be entertaining football between two teams with similar personnel. With Tennessee having won three straight, and Young’s redemption story continuing in his home town, the Titans seem positioned to continue their winning streak.

Titans 34, Texans 31

I meant to do this ranking prior to Week 9, since that’s the unofficial midway point of the season, but I got caught up in the resurgence of Carolina football (two top 25 teams in two weeks!!)

Without further ado:  

New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts

“We poppin like Champagne Bottles, but we never shook”

-Lil’ Wayne “Money 2 Blow” Remix 

That has to be the theme in New Orleans and Indianapolis as the Saints finally have a defense to go with their prolific offense and the Colts still have Peyton Manning.  As the last two undefeated teams in football, there really is nothing that worries these teams, especially the Colts who disposed of their chief rival on Sunday Night.  Stay tuned as both have tough match-ups coming up.  Colts in the ultimate grudge match (I think they may have played in Baltimore at some point…) and Saints (The Patriots come to town soon).

New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings

“Don’t think I don’t think about it”

-Darius Rucker “Don’t think I don’t think about it”

Each team has to have certain moments from the season on their mind.  The Patriots are one foot away (on a fourth down conversion against the Colts) from knocking off the AFC’s top team and putting distance between them and a middling division.  The Chargers are one sensational fourth down play (see: Lewis, Ray vs. Sproles, Darren) away from challenging for the AFC’s top spots.  The Vikings are one mishandled Chester Taylor pass away from perfection.  Though, each team is playing at a high level, which helps to quell those “what if’s”.  On a sidenote:  Props to Darius Rucker, Country newcomer of the year.

Cincinatti Bengals

“I’ll step on your porch, step to your boss/Let’s end the speculation, I’m talking to all you.”

-Jay-Z “Ain’t no Love (Heart of the City”)

Marvin Lewis has the Queen City Team playing like a bunch of bullies.  The Bengals are wearing the “Me against the world” title better than anyone this side of Tupac and the mid-90s Knicks.  Punishing defense, crushing run game (even more now that they’ve signed Larry “I didn’t mean to insult homosexuals, just Todd Haley” Johnson)… Still.  I don’t believe in them.  That “Hard Knocks” series before the season revealed something (not as much as I thought as I made constant “So this is what a 4-12 team looks like” remarks), but something.  I’m not ready to put them up in the second tier division, yet.  I know they swept the Ravens and Steelers, but still… there’s something still lacking.

Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, and Atlanta Falcons

“Woe is me, baby, this is tragic/ ‘Cause we had it, we was magic/ I was flyin’, now I’m crashin’”

-Kanye West “Knock you Down”

Each of these teams went from being sky high to well, not.  The Broncos started the season media darlings before being brought back to earth by the Ravens and Steelers in consecutive weeks, understandable.  However, the inexcusable thrashing they suffered at the hands of the Washington Clinton Portis’ was baffling.  The Steelers, more understandably, were swept by the Bengals.  The Cowboys were upended by the Brokeback Packers (not a gay diss, just an Aaron Rodgers diss… He looks like Jake Gyllenhal) who haven’t been able to win many games (only three out of their last ten!!).  The Eagles suffered back-to-back losses that weren’t very close.  The Falcons just lost to the Panthers…

Needless to say, each of these teams needs to regroup, much like Kanye in this whole post-award show backlash.

New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, and Baltimore Ravens

 “Reasons, like seasons, they constantly change and the seasons of last year, like reasons, have faded away.”

-Something Corporate “Me and the Moon”

The success of last season has (mostly) been missing for these teams.  All of them have struggled with the pre-season expectations and (more likely) their adjusted schedules.  The Giants raced out fast only to quickly be in search of answers losing four of their last five.  The Dolphins have introduced a lot of new wrinkles to their wildcat formation without the electric success from last year.  The Ravens have lost four games by an average of 5.3 points, the close games they thrived on finding ways to win last year.  Just like the tier above and below these teams, they need to find a way to right the ship or the next season (off-season) could be filled with many, discontenting reasons.

New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, and San Francisco 49ers

“But heaven ain’t close in a place like this/Anything goes but don’t blink you might miss.”

-The Killers “Somebody Told Me”

What a grab bag of teams here… Each team has been great and awful this year (as has everyone else); however, these teams tend to be less “killers” than anything else.  Though, as with every season, each team still has a glimmer of hope to redeem what’s left, but, if they blink, they’ll miss.  Can Mark Sanchize pull a Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco and get his entourage to the play-offs?  Can Vince Young keep up his magic (3-0 since he became the starter)?  Can Maurice Jones-Drew carry the whole team every week?  Will Jay Cutler continue to try his hardest to submarine the play-off chances of the Bears?  Does anyone want to win the NFC West!?!?!?!  By week 12, we will know all of these answers and more.

Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, and Houston Texans

“Maybe, in the future, you’re gonna come back, you’re gonna come back to me.”

-Ingrid Michaelson “Maybe”

This is surely what the QBs of these three teams are saying in terms of their fan support.  Donnie Darko-Rodgers caught a break with a win over Tony “It must be getting cold outside because I’m losing games I should win” Romo and the Cowboys, but Green Bay won’t forget he’s not Favre (especially with the Vikings having swept the Packers already this season).  Poor Jake of the man, Steve Smith and the Charlotte fans are done with him.  It’s official.  They’re now, firmly, in the Sam Bradford/Troy Smith Sweepstakes.  As for Houston, all the passing yards look nice, Matt Schaub, but win a game of importance or stay healthy for a whole season.  Either one would be nice at this point.

Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Seattle Seahawks

“I know that it’s coming, I just hope that I’m alive for it.”

-Drake “Successful”

Yes, this entry needed a follow-up lyric to the first installment.  That’s really all there is to say about these teams.  Poor Clinton Portis and Jason Campbell… I would say I’m surprised by Josh Johnson play except that I’m more surprised by how well Josh Freeman has played.  He’s been consistent and stepped up when he needs to most… the two things he embarrassingly lacked at K-State.  The Ron Prince Era looks better and better.  Oh, and Matt Hasselback was washed up two seasons ago.  I’m frantically searching for evidence to the contrary.

Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, and Oakland Raiders

“See potential in ya, let me mould that/I can transform ya, I can transform ya.”

-Chris Brown “I can Transform Ya”

This one goes out to the young Bills (Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, and Roscoe Parrish), young Lions (Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Kevin Smith), and young Raiders (Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Louis Murphy, and JaMarcus Russell… Well, maybe not Russell).  Better times are coming guys.  Whether that means you get traded to well-managed franchises or you’re indentured until you hit free agency, hope is out there.  Or your GM could talk himself into Tebow being the Spread QB to break the trend and you get to chase after his wobbly ducks all next season.  It could really go either way at this point.

St. Louis Rams and Kansas City Chiefs

“It never stops, when my mama ask me will I change/ I tell her yeah, but it’s clear I’ll always be the same.”

-Tupac “Until the End of Time”

It feels like the Rams and Chiefs will continue to be horrible until the end of time.  The Rams can’t find anyone to buy them and will probably end up moving back to LA where they weren’t really liked in the first place.  If they were smart, they’d change their name in transit.  Maybe fool the West Coast into thinking they were someone else for a few years.  Steven Jackson is football’s version of Zach Greinke.  The Chiefs are a mess and I blame Todd Haley.  One person hasn’t ruined a team this badly since Toni Braxton was making her rounds in Dallas.  How do you alienate a future hall of famer (Tony Gonzales), a perennial pro bowl running back (Well, Larry Johnson has his own demons and would’ve self-destructed eventually… but Haley hurried the process), and a rising star wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe, too, is a moron, but at least he doesn’t post moronic Twitter updates and inspire a whole city to petition him out of town)?  Herm Edwards and Carl Petersen just keep smiling wider and brighter each week on their respective television appearances.

Cleveland Browns

“We see the sun about three times a year!”

-Hastily made Cleveland Tourism Video

This is, roughly, the same number of wins Browns fans can expect in any given season… And now they want to use Lebron in football games!?!?!  Whose idea was it to bring football back here, again? 

From a Chicago Bears fan, I have some things to say about our football team…let me beat you to it, and say, yeah they suck this year. Let me tell you why….the trade for Jay Cutler is still the best thing the Bears have done in a very long time. He is the piece we need to build around. The FRANCHISE quarterback. His performance so far is not great by any means, but you can’t deny his positives. Our current receiving core isn’t going to cut it. If Cutler had more experienced and taller receivers, I think that would be a start. Our failed attempt to acquire Anquan Boldin gives us fans hope that Jerry Angelo still knows what he needs to do. The Cardinals will now gladly trade Anquan Boldin this off-season, and I think we need to do whatever it takes to get him. I still think we should have signed former Jaguars (WR)Matt Jones. He is still out there, and despite having some off the field issues, he has all the tools we need at the position. Next year if we had Anquan Boldin, Matt Jones (or another free agent signing), with Devin Hester or Johnny Knox in the slot with Greg Olsen at Tight End, this would fix our receiving core. Another huge problem is our terrible offensive line…we will be without 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks in the 2010 draft, so we need to do our research and get ourselves some offensive lineman, and some help for our secondary. Free Agency might also help both of these positions a bit. As far as our running game is concerned, I think it all starts with our offensive line. They aren’t giving Matt Forte the holes he needs. Some of the blame has to go to Forte himself as well. He seems too antsy, and just needs to have a good off-season of strengthening and conditioning. I’m not totally opposed to adding another running back through the draft or free agency though. Kevin Jones is not the answer as our back up. He is just too injury prone, and I wouldn’t mind adding a bruising type back. Our defense is getting older, and I think the acquisition of (DE)Gaines Adams from the Buccaneers will help. I’m not too concerned with our defensive line or linebackers. They just need to stay healthy, and we need to make sure we have adequate depth in case of injury.

There has been some talk of letting Head Coach Lovie Smith go after the season. I have mixed emotions on this….I think Lovie is a players coach, and I doubt there is a single player in that locker room that holds any ill will towards Lovie Smith. He lead us to a Super Bowl in 2007, and that should tell you right there that he is capable of being our head coach. I feel that Lovie needs to fire himself up a bit more, and drop the reserved approach. He should still treat his players as men, but needs to take a tougher approach to it. I read somewhere that former Denver Broncos head coach, Mike Shanahan would be a perfect fit. I don’t disagree with that at all, because he is from the Chicago area, was the head coach of Jay Cutler since he entered the league in 2006, and has lead the Denver Broncos to multiple Super Bowl championships. It is no guarantee he would take the job here anyway, but you can see why it would be attractive to the Bears, as well as Shanahan himself. It surely is an interesting scenario. I just don’t think Lovie is to blame for all of our problems. We need to fire Ron Turner in the offseason….that is one thing I am very sure of. We need to start from scratch and implement a new offensive scheme with a new offensive coordinator, who will build our offense around Jay Cutler’s abilities. As far as free agents in 2010, I will list a few players that would help us in getting this thing turned around. Remember that we don’t have many choices in the 2010 draft, so we need to bring in fresh faces through free agency or trades. Bringing in the right group of talent could get this thing turned around. It seems like any offensive player who comes to Chicago from another team, never does as well as his previous stint with the old team. The players that leave the Bears to go to different teams seem to do so much better with their new team, than with their stint with the Bears…just look at (RB)Cedric Benson – Bengals, (RB)Thomas Jones – Jets, (WR)Bernard Berrian – Vikings, (QB)Kyle Orton – Broncos, (DT)Tank Johnson – Cowboys & Bengals….it’s too much to be coincidence. Our upper management needs to make sure we work extra hard in the off-season, to not only evaluate players, but evaluate how their independent skills will mesh with the next guy.

2010 Free Agent Wide Receivers of Interest :
- Eagles (WR)Jason Avant
- Bills (WR)Terrell Owens
- Ravens (WR)Mark Clayton
- Bengals (WR)Chris Henry
- Broncos (WR)Brandon Marshall (looks like he will get an extension in Denver though)
- Giants (WR)Sinorice Moss

2010 Free Agent Cornerbacks of Interest :
- Cowboys (CB)Terence Newman
- Colts (CB)Marlin Jackson
- Eagles (CB)Ellis Hobbs
- Packers (CB)Will Blackmon
- Panthers (CB)Richard Marshall
- Steelers (CB)Deshea Townsend
- Steelers (CB)William Gay (RFA)
- Falcons (CB)Brent Grimes (RFA)

2010 Free Agent Safeties of Interest :
- Colts (S)Antoine Bethea
- Packers (S)Atari Bigby
- Steelers (S)Ryan Clark
- Eagles (S)Sean Jones
- Jets (S)Eric Smith
- Saints (S)Usama Young (RFA)

FIRST QUARTER
- Broncos (QB)Kyle Orton passes to (WR)Brandon Marshall for TD
- Jaguars (RB)Maurice Jones-Drew rushes for TD
- Buccaneers (K)Connor Barth kicks 51 Yd. FG
- Bills (RB)Fred Jackson passes to (WR)Lee Evans for TD
- Redskins (QB)Jason Campbell passes to (TE)Todd Yoder for TD
- Dolphins (RB)Ronnie Brown rushes for TD
- Panthers (RB)Jonathan Stewart rushes for TD
- Bengals (RB/KR)Bernard Scott 96 Yard Kickoff Return for TD
- Titans (RB)Chris Johnson rushes for TD
- Broncos (QB)Kyle Orton passes to (WR)Brandon Marshall for TD (2nd time)
- Jets (QB)Mark Sanchez passes to (WR)Jerricho Cotchery for TD
- Titans (QB)Vince Young passes to (WR)Nate Washington for TD

SECOND QUARTER
- Saints (RB)Reggie Bush rushes for TD
- Panthers (QB)Jake Delhomme passes to (WR)Steve Smith for TD
- Rams (QB)Marc Bulger passes to (WR)Donnie Avery for TD
- Jaguars (QB)David Garrard rushes for TD
- Vikings (RB)Adrian Peterson rushes for TD
- Dolphins (K)Dan Carpenter kicks 49 Yd. FG
- Saints (QB)Drew Brees passes to (RB)Reggie Bush for TD
- Falcons (RB)Jason Snelling rushes for TD
- Bills (QB)Trent Edwards passes to (WR)Lee Evans for TD
- Buccaneers (K)Connor Barth kicks 50 Yd. FG
- Redskins (P)Hunter Smith passes to (FB)Mike Sellers for TD
- Jaguars (QB)David Garrard passes to (WR)Mike Sims-Walker for TD
- Rams (RB)Steven Jackson rushes for TD
- Panthers (QB)Jake Delhomme passes to (WR)Steve Smith for TD (2nd time)
- Dolphins (QB)Chad Henne passes to (TE)Kory Sperry for TD

THIRD QUARTER
- Saints(D/ST) Saints (KR)Courtney Roby 97 Yd. Kickoff Return for TD
- Vikings (RB)Adrian Peterson rushes for TD
- Lions (QB)Matthew Stafford passes to (TE)Will Heller for TD
- Buccaneers (K)Connor Barth kicks 54 Yd. FG (has 3 50+ Yd Field Goals today)

FOURTH QUARTER
- Falcons (QB)Matt Ryan passes to (TE)Justin Peelle for TD
- Saints (QB)Drew Brees passes to (WR)Robert Meachem for TD
- Titans (RB)Chris Johnson rushes for TD
- Buccaneers (QB)Josh Freeman passes to (WR)Maurice Stovall for TD
- Jets (RB)Thomas Jones rushes for TD
- Vikings (QB)Brett Favre passes to (TE)Jeff Dugan for TD
- Titans (K)Rob Bironas kicks 51 Yd. FG
- Redskins (RB)Ladell Betts rushes for TD
- Panthers (RB)Jonathan Stewart rushes for TD
- Titans(D/ST) Titans (CB)Vincent Fuller 26 Yd. Interception Return for TD
- Rams (QB)Marc Bulger passes to (WR)Donnie Avery for TD
- Titans(D/ST) Titans (CB)Roderick Hood 31 Yd. Interception Return for TD
- Buccaneers (RB)Carnell Williams rushes for TD

Holmes and the Steelers have "that look" again.

With the baseball season over with, the NFL finally takes center stage in week 10.

This week’s slate of games features some potential great matchups, including the annual tilt between Peyton Manning’s Colts and Tom Brady’s Patriots.

Following two straight losing weeks, I’m now 74-55 on the season and hoping to bounce back with a slew of winners. I’ve already nailed one game this week (thanks, Jay Cutler). Hopefully, it’s a sign of things to come.

Remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I apologize if you’re not entertained, but don’t ask for a refund.

I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis and haven’t found it elsewhere by now…I can’t help you.

Here now are the week ten picks, with the home team in bold.

Jacksonville (+6.5) over NY Jets

Fresh off their bye week, the Jets are in a good position to get their season back on track, facing a mediocre Jaguars team that couldn’t cover the spread at home against the Kansas City Chiefs last week.

The Jets, however, have struggled against teams that predominantly use the run on offense since Kris Jenkins’ season ended, and the Jaguars have one of the best running backs in the league: Maurice Jones-Drew.

Of course, the Jaguars have trouble stopping the run themselves, and the Jets will exploit this weakness in the Jags’ defense.

Assuming both teams run equally well and neither team turns the ball over excessively, this could be a close game. With that in mind, the Jaguars should cover the spread.

Jets 21, Jaguars 20

Denver (-4) over Washington

I was talking to a colleague at work about this game earlier in the week, and we both agreed that this felt like a classic “trap” game for the Broncos.

Denver’s lost two straight, they’re coming off a short week, and travelling to the east coast. Their offense is struggling to score points, and they’re facing a team with a solid defense, statistically-speaking. Plus, the Redskins, losers of four straight, could be due for a good performance, we mused.

These are just idle thoughts, borne from a casual conversation following Denver’s loss to Pittsburgh last week, though. The truth is, the Broncos should win this game by a touchdown or more.

Denver is facing a weak Washington offense that struggles to move the football down the field and allowed five sacks in last week’s loss to the Falcons. The Broncos should re-establish themselves defensively. On offense, if Denver can sustain drives, they will put points on the board as they wear down Washington’s defense.

Broncos 28, Redskins 10

Pittsburgh (-7) over Cincinnati

At the beginning of the season, I picked the Steelers to repeat as Super Bowl champions (see my NFL Haiku Preview here: http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/09/05/the-haiku-nfl-preview/).

Last week, in the second half of their game against the Broncos, the Steelers looked every bit the team capable of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end. They ran the football effectively, their defense forced turnovers, and their offensive line protected Ben Roethlisberger. Looking solely at those 30 minutes of football, it’s easy to envision Pittsburgh as Super Bowl champions.

The Bengals are a good football team. Their cornerbacks match up well against the Steelers’ receivers, and their defensive line has done a nice job all season containing the opponents’ running backs. Having to account for Rashard Mendenhall, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace and Heath Miller will likely prove to be too much for Cincinnati though.

Plus, having nearly won their first matchup this season, the Steelers will not be lacking for motivation in this game.

Steelers 27, Bengals 13

Tennessee (-6.5) over Buffalo

Chris Johnson is averaging over 6.5 yards per carry and leads the NFL in rushing yards. He and the Titans face the NFL’s worst run defense this week, the Buffalo Bills.

Assuming Vince Young continues to hand the ball off and stay out of Johnson’s way, then Version 2.0 of the Vince Young Era will be 3-0 by the end of Sunday’s game against the Bills.

Titans 27, Bills 14

Minnesota (-16.5) over Detroit

Sure, they have only one win, but the Detroit Lions are, for the most part, playing competitive football this season.

The Vikings will win this game. That’s a given. They are far superior to the Lions, playing at home, and coming off their bye week. They will be rested and ready.

This is a risky pick, just because of the size of the spread. However, the Vikings should win by this much, perhaps more. Detroit can hang with the Vikings for a while, but Minnesota should be able to pull away by forcing turnovers.

Vikings 34, Lions 14

New Orleans (-13.5) over St. Louis

After trailing in their last three games, the Saints need to execute their offense better from the beginning of games through the end.

This week, New Orleans should be able to demonstrate what their offense is capable of. A big early lead will force the Rams to shelve the running attack, forcing them to throw the football and play into the hands of the Saints opportunistic defense.

I recognize the Rams are fresh off their first win of the season. Given the gaps in personnel and ability between the two teams, the Saints shouldn’t have much trouble.

Saints 37, Rams 10

Carolina (+1.5) over Atlanta

Fresh off a relatively easy win over the Redskins, the Falcons travel to face the Panthers, a team that is similar to the Falcons in a lot of ways.

Both teams run the ball well. Both teams feature mediocre defenses. Both teams’ quarterbacks have had their share of struggles this season.

The difference between the two teams is records. While Atlanta enters this game at 5-3 and in the playoff hunt, the Panthers are 3-5 and are a longshot, at best, at earning a wildcard spot. Despite that one lone difference, I visualize these teams as extremely similar.

With that in mind, I’m taking the Panthers to cover and win outright. Atlanta is 1-3 on the road, and Matt Ryan has put up some clunkers away from the Georgia Dome this year. The Panthers should be able to take advantage of Ryan’s mistakes, giving them more opportunities to run the ball against Atlanta’s weak run defense.

Panthers 24, Falcons 21

Miami (-10) over Tampa Bay

It’s difficult to believe that a team with a losing record would be double-digit favorites over another team with a losing record. And yet, that’s the NFL of 2009.

As well as Miami has played in their losses, the reason why those games went from wins to losses has a lot to do with the opposing quarterback. Could anyone other than Peyton Manning put up 27 points while having fewer than 15 minutes of game time to do it? Could anyone other than Drew Brees have engineered a comeback win from down 24-3?

Tampa Bay doesn’t have Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning. They don’t have Phillip Rivers or Matt Ryan either. And because their run defense won’t be able to slow down the Dolphins’ running backs, the Buccaneers don’t have a shot.

Dolphins 31, Buccaneers 10

Kansas City (+2) over Oakland

There’s precious little to say about these two teams that hasn’t already been said. They both stink.

The last time these teams met, the Raiders snuck out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win. The Chiefs dominated statistically, but Matt Cassel threw two interceptions.

The Chiefs have been involved in more competitive games this season than the Raiders, they have more intriguing talent on both sides of the ball, and, despite how poorly they’ve played this year, they seem to be headed in the right direction.

Chiefs 15, Raiders 12

Arizona (-8.5) over Seattle

The Seahawks have yet to win a road game. In fact, they’ve yet to even play well enough on the road to keep them competitive in an away game this season.

There are lingering injury questions about Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck. Plus, the Seahawks are among the worst running teams in the NFL, and their defense is average at best. For a team that has failed to play well on the road, these are significant issues to deal with as they play against the NFC West-leading Cardinals.

The last time these two teams met, Arizona limited Seattle to just three points. Kurt Warner is fresh off one of the best performances of his career, and Arizona’s offense seems to be clicking right now.

The Cardinals are the better team in this matchup. They’ve yet to play well at home, but perhaps this is the week they rectify that.

Cardinals 31, Seahawks 14

Philadelphia (+2.5) over San Diego

The Chargers come home following the euphoria of an uplifting win. The Eagles come into this game after losing a tough home game against division-rival Dallas.

This is a pivotal game for both teams. San Diego is chasing Denver in the AFC West, and the Eagles are trailing the Cowboys and need the win to stay ahead of the Giants in the NFC East.

The Eagles seem to be the better team. They have several weapons on offense to stretch out the Chargers’ defense. They should be able to run and pass successfully against San Diego. Their defense has limited most opponents to 20 or fewer points; only in their loss at New Orleans have the Eagles surrendered more than 20 points in a game.

The Chargers, meanwhile, don’t have the same versatility on offense. They haven’t run the ball well all season long and their passing offense seems limited to Phillip Rivers throwing downfield to Vincent Jackson.

It won’t be an easy task for the Eagles to go west and beat San Diego on the road, but I’m picking them to pull it off.

Eagles 24, Chargers 17

Dallas (-3) over Green Bay

Nothing would delight me more than to see the Packers pull off the upset.

Aaron Rodgers is a very good, under-publicized quarterback, and his receiving corps provides him with ample talent to score a lot of points. When Rodgers passes the ball successfully, the Packers are fun to watch.

However, between a pedestrian running attack and a porous offensive line, the Packers don’t do well at protecting Rodgers. He is sacked more than any other quarterback in the league.

In order to stay on the fringes of the NFC wildcard chase, the Packers need to win this game. Motivation won’t be an issue for the Packers, but their ability to stop the Cowboys might be.

Dallas has won four straight, with each win more impressive than the last it seems. There could be some let-down following their gritty win at Philadelphia last week, but the Cowboys are completely healthy on offense, and their defense has played better in recent weeks. Until some team knocks them off, or until the Cowboys suffer an injury to a key player, I don’t foresee them losing many games.

Cowboys 31, Packers 24

New England (+3) over Indianapolis

I could wax poetic about the similarities between these teams, or how Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, or how this game figures to be a ratings bonanza for NBC.

Instead, I’ll keep it brief. New England isn’t exactly a run-it-down-your-throat kind of team, but their skill players on offense are all healthy, and Pats’ coach Bill Bellichick will find ways to exploit the Colts’ injury-riddled defense, and that could mean more screen passes, or more touches for Laurence Maroney, among other tactics.

The Colts will certainly score their share of points. However, unless the Colts can score on every drive, they won’t win this game.

Patriots 31, Colts 27

Monday Night

Baltimore (-11) over Cleveland

The Ravens’ defense isn’t what it used to be. Opposing running backs have had over 100 yards rushing against Baltimore in three of their last four games. In all, the Ravens have lost four of their last five.

Given those facts about the Ravens, the point spread for this game speaks volumes about their opponents, the Cleveland Browns, who are the Los Angeles Clippers or Washington Nationals of the NFL.

Ravens 27, Browns 7

There were some great standouts this week and many should be recognized for their accomplishments as week 9 is in the books. However, there were many duds in this week, and one was a big part of the worst without even playing, so let’s give out the awards for the Week 9

THE BEST

Peyton Manning: The Co-MVP of this season along with Drew Brees at the midway point, Manning became the first QB to throw for 40,000 yards for his career in a single decade. That is an amazing feat that simply will not be accomplished for a long time. Much props

Josh Freeman: In his first NFL start in the creamsicle jerseys and Buccaneer Bruce helmets, Freeman threw for three touchdowns, and led Tampa Bay to its first victory in the Raheem Morris era. Freeman looks to have a lot of promise in the years to come. Let’s hope he can keep it up

The Cincinnati Bengals: If you did not believe this team was for real, start. The Bengals are 4-0 against the AFC North this season, including two victories over Baltimore, and have a chance to make a MAJOR statement if they can beat Pittsburgh AT Heinz Field, and put a tight grip on the AFC North. Had it not been for a tipped ball opening week, this team could easily be 7-1 right now.

THE WORST

The Detroit Lions: Up 17-0, the Lions allowed 25 unanswered points to the Seattle Seahawks, who aren’t really the team that they used to be. Not only did they lose the game, they extended their road losing streak to 16 games and have shown that they have a LONG way to go.

The New York Giants: This team was 5-0 and at the top of the NFC among the Saints, but they have really started a free fall that has them in third place in the NFC East behind the surging Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

Larry Johnson & the Kansas City Chiefs: This will be the last Larry Johnson reference for the week, but the relationship between LJ and the organization was never a real strong one. The Chiefs knew he was not happy, but kept him there anyway. Johnson knew his time was up, and it seemed like his effort over the last two seasons was lackadaisical. Although he was expressing himself freely, it did violate the NFL’s rules on social media, which led to his release. In the previous LJ blog, everybody wins in this area.

THE BEST OF THE WORST

Brandon Marshall: Despite Denver’s poor performance against the Steelers on Monday night, Marshall had 11 catches for 112 yards. However, with his team at 6-2, and just a game ahead of the San Diego Chargers, the Broncos are going to have to step it up and avoid the same collapse that led to the firing of Mike Shanahan. Josh McDaniels will make the necessary adjustments and will not let this happen. Besides, the relationship between Marshall and McDaniels has strengthened since training camp, and he will be rewarded greatly in the offseason.

Check back later today for Team Midseason Grades, and Midseason Awards

The Steelers’ 28-10 victory in Denver last night was a satisfying one for a number of (fairly obvious) reasons:

– The offensive line played consistently well for four quarters. Rashard Mendenhall finished with 155 yards on 22 carries, including only two completely stuffed runs that I can recall, as opposed to the usual “every back-to-back run is immediately stuffed and the running game is abandoned until the next series.” Roethlisberger had tons of time to throw, especially in the second half, and only took sacks after long pocket sequences in which every receiver was blanketed throughout the play. Announcers call these plays “coverage sacks,” but I’d more accurately call them “Ben Roethlisberger is Ben Roethlisberger.”

– We can dispense with the idea that Champ Bailey is a shutdown corner whose halves of fields opposing quarterbacks deliberately avoid. Santonio Holmes finished with six catches for 93 yards, most of them with Bailey extremely visible in the tv frame.

– Is there a more pointless stat than naming the combined number of Pro-Bowl appearances by a group, as the MNF crew did with the Champ Bailey / Ty Law / Brian Dawkins Broncos secondary? Good thing the Broncos didn’t have Junior Seau and his 75 Pro Bowls also, or they would’ve really crushed the Steelers in the “Having More Pro Bowls On Your Roster Regardless Of The Players’ Current Ages” Race, which is the object of football.

– Odd play selection discrepancy by the Broncos: They attempted 3 actual runs and 78,556,031 playaction fakes. The Steelers stopped biting after that first series, as any group of humans with eyes / the capability for short-term memory would have.

– For the first five weeks of the season, myself (and every other Steeler fan ever, give or take) was lamenting the Steeler D’s lack of game-changing big plays at opportune times. After the Vikings game and three interceptions off Kyle “I Manage The Game So Well I Literally Wear A Blue Shirt With A Name Tag Like A McDonald’s Shift Manager” Orton, we can put this criticism to rest for the time being.

–William Gay had a rough first series, being beaten by Eddie Royal roughly 12 times in the first 5 Denver plays from scrimmage, but rebounded nicely and was largely unnoticeable in the second half, which is a good thing for a corner.

– Brandon Marshall finished with 11 catches for 112 yards, but with no receptions for more than 18 yards. It’s a nice change for the Steelers to actually allow some yards to the other team’s best receiver, instead of some random tight end, Whitey McCincyfullback, or Brandon Stokely (who I would’ve quadruple-covered the entire game, knowing the Steelers).

– No kickoff or punt return touchdowns allowed!!! Special teams coach Bob Ligashesky should be Gatoraded every time the opposing kick returner is tackled short of the Steelers’ 10.

– Knowshon Moreno finished the game with 5 carries for 3 yards.  Anyone still criticizing the Broncos for not sticking with a running game should reread the previous sentence.

– Mike Wallace nabbed 4 more catches for 69 yards and another touchdown, his third of the season. The Steelers should seriously consider trading all their future 2nd round selections for 3rds, just on principle.

– Bengals at Heinz Field next. The Steelers are currently 7 point favorites (yow!) I have to admit, even though it’s embarrassing: I’m… this is tough, give me a sec. I’m…very…confident going into this game. Whew, that felt weird to get out.

Like I said when they were 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0, and 6-0…” I’m not buyin!”

The Broncos deserve a great deal of credit for beginning the season at 5-0.  In the past two weeks, this solid team of newly-acquainted veterans has lost to the two teams that battled in the conference championship game in 2008.  There is no shame in that, but it is clear that Denver has some work to do.  The offense is mediocre and we know its not because of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  They have played in a high-powered explosive offense before.  The problem may not be Josh McDaniels either.  He knows something about “matriculating the ball up and down the field.”  Even Brandon Stokely has been part of an elite offensive unit.  So who hasn’t been there and done that?

The man who threw 3 interceptions tonite against a team that refused to allow any men in orange jerseys to run the ball: Kyle Orton.

Frankly, I think the Broncos are on the verge of a collapse until they do some things differently.  I thought they were fortunate to beat the Chargers in San Diego.  For all of their success on defense, that game boiled down to a couple of returns by Eddie Royal.  Only the 2007 Bears and Devin Hester can live that way.  This Broncos team simply isn’t cut that way.  The offense managed 3 points tonite — and that was due to Troy Polamalu’s defense on teammate William Gay.  

Denver has to score more.  They have to get Tony Scheffler involved in the offense.  They have to get their running game untracked.  If they don’t, that undersized defense will be forced to stay on the field as much as they did tonite.  That defense can’t do it.  The success of the defense is predicated on the speed of the front 7 and the savvy of the secondary.  That formula was inverted tonite.  The demise of the Broncos was due to the fatigue of the front 7 and the “experience” of the secondary.  The Steelers made Champ Bailey look older than Ty Law.  Did you see the hurdle?

The Broncos don’t have to collapse, they just have to adjust.  I like the Chargers to find a way to win this division.

As for the Steelers, the offense is powerful but sloppy.  Roethlisberger plays like he knows he is playing with house money.  He plays as if he is unconcerned with the consequences of his actions.  The Steelers defense is so ferocious that he is seldom taxed the way another passer might be by miscues.  The Steelers could have scored 40 points if they did not turn the ball over.  Rashard Mendenhall was spared the disgrace of a goal line fumble in the 4th quarter.  And it wasn’t because he didn’t actually fumble — he did.  The referees were probably still trying to make up for that blown call when Jerome Bettis called the coin toss in overtime vs. the Lions.  Ben Roethlisberger had two turnovers: a blind-side fumble and a goal line interception.  Both turnovers were committed when the Steelers were moving the ball with ease.  The second half was a relative walk in the park.  Bruce Arians appeared to have surrendered the play-calling to Ben as the team ran effortlessly without huddling.

Note 1:  It was interesting to hear the announcers talk at the beginning of the 2nd half about how Denver’s frequent movement on defense was causing the Steelers to run the clock down to the final seconds.  That was not the case.  The Steelers were entirely in control based on the change in tempo.  Roethlisberger took his time looking over the defense to maximize the quality of his pre-snap reads.  There was no need to rush.  The no-huddle limited defensive substitutions.  Roethlisberger took his time.  Game over.

Note 2:  When Troy Polamalu is healthy, he makes plays all over the field.  In the 4th quarter of this game (with about 9 minutes remaining), Polamalu stuffed a first down in the backfield with the Broncos pinned down in the own end.  On the very next play, Kyle Orton tried to get some breathing room and the ball was intercepted by Polamalu about 20 yards downfield.

Note 3:  The only guy who really gets open down field against Ike Taylor is Randy Moss (and he needs Tom Brady on the field).  If you don’t have Randy Moss, don’t bother.

If Rashard Mendenhall can secure the ball, this team is going back to where they came from.  Right now, the Colts, Bengals and Steelers (in that order) look to be the class of the AFC.  I don’t know where to put the Patriots.  It’s been so long since they played a quality opponent with a two-dimensional offense.

Closing Note:  Last season, in Week 9, the Steelers played on the road against a team with a new “genius” coach that was oaded with veterans in the secondary, a young quarterback who had yet to throw an interception, a dynamic running game, apass-catching tight end, .  Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of that game by the Washington Redskins, but Jason Campbell threw his first interceptions of the season.  The Redskins, like the Broncos, struggled mightily to score and lost 23-6.

Basically here’s the deal. Out of pure obsessive habit I signed up for a fantasy football team in spite of my knowing far less about the NFL than I ought to. Tonight, in a Yahoo! league that has me currently sitting in second-last place, I’m matched up against the number one team and trailing be 10 points heading into Monday Night Football.

If Hines Ward and Brandon Marshall combine for over 10 points, the victory is mine, fate is sealed and hell frozen. If not, it’s back to the drawing board.

Judging by the discrepancy between team quarterbacks and anyone else on a fantasy football roster, I’m having a hard time getting into football the way I’ve always been drawn to fantasy basketball, baseball and hockey. Imagine if shooting guards netted most of your fantasy points and power forwards were hardly worth having at all?

Of course this all may be influenced by the fact that I was auto-drafted Tom Brady and the rest of my team is a painful unqualified mess. Save for Chris Johnson. I appreciate you Chris Johnson.

With Denver fresh off their first loss of the season and Pittsburgh on a streak of four, it will be interesting to see which way the momentum falls after tonight. My wishful prediction? Ward and Marshall each catch five touchdowns and the Broncos defeat the Steelers in overtime (in honour of how awesome John Elway was in NFL Blitz 64)

Cedric Benson: MVP candidate?

As the NFL begins its second half, parity has been thrown out the window.

It seems that, week in and week out, there are clear-cut favorites and underdogs in more than half of the games played. There are few bizzare point spreads on a weekly basis.

Outside of the 6-1 Denver Broncos being underdogs every week (including this one), there are very few head-scratching favorites and underdogs. Also, the double-digit favorites are easier to pick because the underdogs are, for the most part, so overwhelmingly bad.

At the halfway point of the season, following a brutal 5-8 showing in week eight, I’m 20 games over .500 thus far (68-48), and hoping to keep making the right picks down the stretch.

Despite how well I’ve done so far, remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I’m not perfect. I never will be.

If you’re a faithful reader, you know by now that I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…well…I’d suggest John Clayton of ESPN, but he picked Denver to go 3-13, or something like that, so I don’t know if mainstream media analysis is the best option.

Here now are the Week Nine picks, with the home team in bold .

Kansas City (+6.5) over Jacksonville

Theoretically, the Jaguars should roll over the Chiefs. Everything points to a Jacksonville win, supposedly.

Kansas City doesn’t stop the run well, and the Jags have one of the most dynamic running backs in football: Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars have more overall talent, and they’re playing at home as well.

However, probably against my better judgment, I’m going with my gut and taking the Chiefs. With Larry Johnson suspended, Kansas City won’t have any choice but to give Jamaal Charles the bulk of the carries at running back, and he may be more talented than Johnson at this point. As I showed last week, betting on a feeling instead of statistics can be hazardous to your wallet. Maybe I’m toxic right now, but I’m going with the feeling here anyway.

Jaguars 21, Chiefs 18

Cincinnati (+3) over Baltimore

The Ravens would love to avenge their 3-point loss to the Bengals at home from earlier in the season. Cedric Benson ran for 120 yards in that game, and Carson Palmer threw a TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to win it.

In the minds of the Ravens, it was a bit of a fluky win. However, the Bengals outgained the Ravens, held the ball for 10 more minutes, and allowed just one offensive TD to the Ravens. The score was close, but the Bengals were the better team on that day.

While it’s entirely possible that the Ravens are back on track after defeating Denver last week, the Bengals will be coming off their bye week and are hosting this game. At this time of year, these could be big factors in deciding which team wins. I’m taking the Bengals.

Bengals 21, Ravens 17

Houston (+9) over Indianapolis

Since 2002, the Texans are 1-13 against the Colts. Currently 5-3, and posing the only legitimate threat to challenge Indianapolis in the AFC South at this point, the Texans have a lot to prove coming into this game.

The Colts, sitting at 7-0 and fresh off a tough win over the 49ers last week, will be well-prepared and motivated to widen their lead in the AFC South and continue to hold down the #1 overall seed in the AFC as the NFL approaches the halfway point in the season.

Both Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub should have big games for their teams. The key to the game will be how the running backs fare. Neither team has done well running the football all season.

Ryan Moats did a nice job for Houston filling in for Steve Slaton last week, and he could seize the starting job with another big performance this week. Meanwhile, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown have posted pedestrian numbers while splitting carries for Indianapolis. The team that has the best running back will win this game. I’ll take the hot hand and ride the Texans in this one.

Texans 21, Colts 20

Atlanta (-10) over Washington

After a stretch in which they’ve played four of their last five games on the road, the Falcons come home to face a reeling Washington Redskins team.

As tempting as it is to pick against the double-digit favorite here, I’m taking the Falcons. They’ve been getting skewered in the media lately because of their struggles, and I’ve fallen into that trap a bit. Their three losses have all come on the road and against playoff contending teams (New England, Dallas, New Orleans). Perhaps the criticism is premature.

As for the Redskins, they are playing out the proverbial string at this point. They may pull off a shocking win here, but it seems unlikely given their struggles to do much of anything besides collect their paychecks and play badly.

Falcons 34, Redskins 13

Green Bay (-10) over Tampa Bay

Ryan Grant figures to have a big game running against Tampa Bay’s weak rush defense, and Aaron Rodgers should pick apart the Buccaneers’ secondary.

On the other side, the Buccaneers will use rookie QB Josh Freeman against the Packers this week, a team with an opportunistic defense capable of causing several turnovers. This has the makings of being a blowout.

Packers 34, Buccaneers 14

Arizona (+3) over Chicago

Last week, the Bears won in spite of another mediocre performance from Jay Cutler, who’s not got 11 TD and 11 INT on the season. Meanwhile, all Kurt Warner did last week was throw five interceptions and lose a fumble, turning the ball over six times to the Carolina Panthers. Warner’s had the more consistent season thus far, but neither of these guys inspires a lot of confidence. I don’t trust the signal-callers for either team.

Both teams have running games that have proven to be horrible thus far. Neither team has an elite defense.

In games like this, where many of the matchups seem to be even for both sides, the outcome usually boils down to the athletic playmakers on either team. Larry Fitzgerald figures to play a bigger role in Arizona’s offense, and success, than Devin Hester will, so the advantage goes to Arizona.

Cardinals 24, Bears 20

New England (-10.5) over Miami

The Patriots had extra time to prepare for this one, thanks to their bye week, and they should benefit from the time they had to rest and get ready for this key intra-division game.

Miami is fresh off their surprising win over the Jets, a win that happened despite a lackluster 104 yards of total offense. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had a lot of success in the Wildcat offense against the Patriots last season, and both should do well this week, too. However, inexperienced Miami QB Chad Henne will likely be a non-factor this week, allowing the Patriots to focus on the run during key situations in the game.

I expect Tom Brady to have a field day against the Miami secondary this week, and unless the Dolphins can hold the ball for several sustained drives, I expect the Patriots to win this game easily. As much as I hate siding with the double-digit favorites, I think this could be a statement game for the Pats.

Patriots 31, Dolphins 17

New Orleans (-13) over Carolina

With the way the Saints have played this year, especially at home, anything under a two-touchdown spread seems to be an inviting play in my book.

This week, the turnover-happy Panthers come to New Orleans. Carolina could keep the Saints at bay a bit if they can control the time of possession and not turn the ball over. Limiting Jake Delhomme’s passes will be vital to this plan, as the Saints feature an opportunistic secondary.

On offense, it would be stunning if the Saints were held in check by the Panthers’ defense. They are versatile and dangerous. So long as Drew Brees isn’t forced into making mistakes with the football, they should win by two touchdowns or more.

Saints 35, Panthers 20

Detroit (+10) over Seattle

The Seahawks have been at their best at home against the worst the NFL has to offer; their two wins this season, against the Rams and Jaguars, came by a combined score of 69-0.

The Lions are similar to the teams Seattle has thrashed already this season, with one exception: Calvin Johnson. Oh sure, the Rams have Stephen Jackson, and the Jags have Maurice Jones-Drew, both of whom are among the best running backs in football. Neither of those teams have a big-play receiver like Johnson, however.

Admittedly, this pick hinges on Johnson’s health; he is likely to be a game-time decision. If he plays, he will be productive against an average Seattle defense. If he doesn’t play, it limits what the Lions can do offensively, and it will likely mean that Seattle covers the spread.

This is gambling though, right? So I’m taking the risk and going with the Lions to cover.

Seahawks 27, Lions 21

Tennessee (+4) over San Francisco

I’m well aware this isn’t 2008. I’m well aware the Titans have been lousy all season long.

Yet last week, with Vince Young under center and Chris Johnson racking up over 200 yards on the ground, the Titans played as if they had nothing to lose.

The 49ers’ defense has the potential to confuse Young and force him into some mistakes, and they also do a solid job of containing opposing teams’ running backs. Tennessee’s defense, conversely, is horrendous; the 49ers should move the ball easily and could have their best scoring day of the 2009 season.

Still, given their propensity to play a lot of close games, I don’t see the 49ers pulling away from the Titans. Instead, I get the feeling this could come down to a late drive either way.

49ers 31, Titans 28

NY Giants (-5) over San Diego

This will be a great “barometer” game for both teams. San Diego has yet to beat any team with a winning record this season, while the Giants have lost three straight and are in danger of falling out of the NFC playoff picture.

The Chargers are basically a one-dimensional team on offense; they can only pass the football. The Giants’ three losses have come against Pro Bowl-caliber QBs (Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb), and they face yet another one in Phillip Rivers.

If the Giants can defend Rivers’ deep passes to Vincent Jackson and limit their offense to using the middle of the field instead of the edges, they should win easily. If Jackson gets open consistently and Rivers has time to get him the ball, the Chargers could pull off a tough road win.

Eli Manning’s play of late has been bad, probably due in part to his foot injury. The Giants should be able to run the ball well against the Chargers, which should limit Manning’s throws and decrease his mistakes. They’ll score fewer points, but they’ll also keep the Chargers’ offense off the field as a by-product.

Between the Giants’ ability to run the ball on offense and pressure the quarterback on defense, they should be able to limit the Chargers’ passing attack and end their losing streak.

Giants 24, Chargers 17

Philadelphia (-3) over Dallas

Anything other than a shootout would be a pretty big surprise at this point; Dallas has scored 75 points in their last two games, while the Eagles have put up 67.

Dallas seems more equipped to sustain long drives, thanks to their running back tandem of Marion Barber and Felix Jones. The Eagles’ quick-strike offense is capable of scoring on a few big plays against a Dallas defense that gives up nearly 350 yards a game, though.

In trying to find an edge one way or the other, I kept coming back to points allowed. Other than a blowout loss to the Saints, the Eagles haven’t given up 20 points to any of their opponents. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have allowed 20 or more on 4 occasions.

While both teams will score their share of points, the Eagles’ defense seems to be able to shut teams down when the need arises, and I think this ability will play a decisive role in this game.

Eagles 31, Cowboys 24

Monday Night

Denver (+3) over Pittsburgh

This was a hard decision. There are compelling reasons to pick the Steelers.

First of all, Pittsburgh is coming off their bye week. Secondly, the Steelers present some of the same challenges to Denver that the Baltimore Ravens did last week, only with a better QB, better coaching staff, and a better overall defense. Plus, given the success Baltimore had in using the no-huddle offense, it seems likely that Pittsburgh will employ a similar strategy and use the no-huddle at times.

Putting all of that aside, the pick is Denver for two reasons.

1. The Broncos can exploit Pittsburgh’s secondary with more five-receiver sets and change-ups in the running game, such as the “Wild Horses” offensive scheme. As much as Denver likes to run the football, they may be best served throwing the football, and they have the players in place to be successful while passing.

2. Baltimore may have created a blueprint for beating the Broncos, but the Broncos have been adept at adjusting to their opponents all season long, and I don’t expect that to be different in this game.

As an aside…Denver is the underdog at home again? Seriously?

Broncos 27, Steelers 20