Magnífica idea de la agencia Comark para promocionar el turismo de invierno en Suiza y Francia. Para ello han montado dentro del centro comercial L’Illa 2 stands de información simulando las típicas casas alpinas de madera. Y para animar al personal durante todas las navidades, han montado un globo que sube hasta el techo del centro comercial. ¡Las colas de niños están garantizadas!

En tiempos de crisis las buenas ideas son necesarias. En Vancouver la marca Gap lanza una promoción llamada Sprize en la que devuelve a los clientes la diferencia entre el precio que pagan por la ropa hoy y el que tendrá dentro de 45 días cuando estén de rebajas.  Evidentemente no reembolsa el dinero, sino que lo entrega en forma de crédito para comprar más ropa. Literalmente, le han dado la vuelta a la forma de comprar.

Vía Quietglover

En la sociedad indonesia (y en la del resto del mundo) cada día se exige más a los niños a nivel académico. Por eso los padres les apuntan a actividades extraescolares que, con toda probabilidad, los niños odian. Para concienciar a los padres obsesionados con la preparación de sus hijos Publicis Jakarta creó un totem interactivo en el que una niña que está siguiendo un curso de piano se acerca a la pantalla cuando alguien la toca. La ñina virtual pone la palma sobre la mano de la persona que toca la pantalla y le pide que involucre a sus hijos en el proceso de decidir qué tipo de actividad quieren hacer. Una idea promovida por Nestle Dancow durante el día nacional de la infancia.

Vía Advertolog

Kraftstoff(e) der Zukunft? Brauchen wir nicht, wir haben doch Benzin und Diesel. So  so ähnlich könnte ein Gespräch an deutschen Tankstellen ablaufen. Stellt man die Frage in anderen Ländern, wird die Antwort etwas varieren, aber grundsätzlich wird die Notwendigkeit von Benzin und Diesel nicht in Frage gestellt.

Eine Auflistung von etablierten Kraftstoffe bis hin zu Kraftstoffen der 3. Generation und jensseits davon  soll Abhilfe schaffen, um der Zukunft der Kraftstoffe etwas mehr Perspektive zu verschaffen – weg von herkömmlichen Kraftstoffen.

Ottokraftstoffe (herkömmlich und bis heute, 2009, am weitesten verbreitet)

• Dichte: 0,71 bis 0,78 kg/l
• Brennwert: 42,7 bis 43,5 MJ/kg

Wichtig ist ebenfalls die Oktanzahl, an der sich die Klopffestigkeit ablesen läßt. Je höher sie ist, desto geringer die Neigung zur Selbstentzündung.

Dieselkraftstoffe (herkömmlich und bis heute, 2009, am weitesten verbreitet)

• Dichte: 0,815 bis 0.85 kg/l
• Brennwert: 42,5 MJ/kg

Entscheidend ist ebenfalls die Cetanzahl, welche die Zündfähigkeit beschreibt.

Erdgas, Compressed Natural Gas oder auch CNG (Alternativ, aber herkömmlich)

• CNG ist auf 200 bar komprimiertes Erdgas
• 1 kg CNG entspricht in etwa 1,5 l Benzin bzw. 1,3 l Diesel
• Dichte Erdgas: 0,79  bis 0,83 kg/m3
• Brennwert Erdgas: 48,5 MJ/kg

In 2009 sind offiziel über 700 Erdgastankstellen in Deutschland registriert; ca. 40.000 bivalente Erdgasfahrzeuge sind auf deutschen Strassen unterwegs.

Autogas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas oder auch LPG (Alternativ, aber herkömmlich)

• LPG ist ein Gemisch, bestehend aus Propan und Butan; ein Nebenprodukt der Mineralölförderindustrie
• Dichte: ca. 0,56 kg/m3
• Brennwert: 49 MJ/kg

In 2009 sind über 40.000 LPG Fahrzeuge in Deutschland unterwegs.

Diese herkömmlichen Kraftstoffe sind zunehmend der Konkurenz von Biokraftstoffe der ersten-, zweiten-, ab 2010 ebenfalls der dritten Generation ausgesetzt. Biokraftstoffe der 1. Generation sind in 2009 etablierte Kraftstoffe, deren Ausbreitung vor allem in Südamerika und den USA zu verzeichnen ist.

Biodiesel ist kein wirklicher Biokraftstoff der 1. Generation, sondern Rapsmethylester (RME) und – bis heute – der einzig genormte Biokraftstoff. Er wird vorwiegend in Deutschland aus Raps gewonnen.

• Dichte: 0,88 kg/l
• Brennwert: 37,1 MJ/kg

Zwischen 2000 und 2009 stieg die Biodieselerzeugung in Deutschland von ca. 0.3 Millionen auf über 5 Millionen Tonnen an.

Bioethanol der 1. Generation wird vorwiegend in Deutschland herkömmlichen Ottokraftstoffen beigemischt. Benzin der Sorte E85 besteht zu 85% aus Ethanol und 15% aus Benzin. Die jährliche Produktion von Bioethanol in Deutschland in 2008 betrug ca. 0,5 Millionen Tonnen. und wird sich bis 2014 auf ca. 1,1 Millonen Tonnen stabilisieren; die Herstellung erfolgt ausschließlich aus Getreide und Zuckerrüben.  In den USA, Schweden und vor allem in Brasilien ist Bioethanol weit verbreitet. Die brasilianische Herstllung, vorwiegend aus Zuckerrohr, ist um fast die Hälfte billiger im Vergleich zu der deutschen Produktion.

Biogas der 1. Generation wird aus aufbereiteten Erdgas gewonnen, welches auf 200 bar komprimiert wird. Entscheidener Vorteil gegenüber Biodiesel ist der höhere Energieertrag, 178 GJ/ha im Vergleich zu 51 GJ/ha. Dichten und Brennwerte von Biogas entsprechen den Werten von Erdgas.

Biokraftstoffe der 2. Generation sind eine konsequente Weiterentwicklung von Fischer-Tropsch- als auch Pyroloyseverfahren, mit dem konsquenten Ziel durch großtechnische Anlagen Rohstoffabhängigkeiten zu minimieren. Kommerzielle Anlagen werden sich aber bis 2010 nicht etablieren.

Biomass-to-Liquid (BtL) werden Biokraftstoffe der 2. Generation bezeichnet, um z.B. Dieselkrafstoffe aus Biomasse herzustellen. Die Firma Choren aus Freiberg/Sachsen hat ein Verfahren entwicklelt, um Biomasse (Holz, Stroh, Reststoffe, etc.) in einem mehrstufigen Prozess in ein Synthesegas zu überführen, welches dann in einem weiterentwickeltenFischer-Tropsch-Verfahren zu hochwertigen Biokraftstoffen umgewandelt wird. Entscheidende Vorteile sind dabei:

• hohe Energieerträge, bis zu 140 GJ/ha
• gute CO2-Bilanz
• breite Rohstoffbasis
• hohe Kraftstoffqualität, Dichte: 0,76 bis 0,79 kg/l sowie ein Brennwert von ca. 44 MJ/kg

Die erste Großversuchsanlage mit einer Produktionskapazität von 200.000 t/a wird Ende 2009, Anfang 2010 in Freiberg anlaufen.

BtL-Pyrolyseverfahren sollen ebenfalls Biokraftstoffe der 2. Generation erzeugen.Bei der Flash-Pyrolyse wird Biomasse unter Sauerstoffausschluss sehr schnell erhitztz (ca. 480°C) und das entstehende Pyrolyseprodukt schnell abgekühlt und kondensiert zu einer rötlich-braunen Flüssigkeit (Slurry) mit etwa der Hälfte des Heizwertes von konventionellen Heizöls. Das Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe ist bis 2010 mit dem Aufbau und Weiterführung einer Pilotanlage beschäftigt.

Bioethanol der 2. Generation wird aus Alkohol aus Lignozellulose (Stroh, Holz, Rinde, landwirtschaftliche Abfälle) in mehrstufigen thermischen, chemischen und enzymatischen Verfahren in Glucose aufgebrochen und fermentiert. Forschungsschwerpunkte liegen vor allem in Kanada, Schweden und den USA.

Biokrafstoffe der 3. Generation auf der Basis von Methan werden sich ab 2010 zunehmend etablieren. Ihre Herstellung erfolgt aus Deponiegas und vor allem Biogas, welche gereinigt und anschließend verflüssigt werden zu Liquefied Methane Gas (LMG), respektive zu Liquefied Biogas (LBG). Vorteile gegenüber Biogas(e) der 1. Generation, die als CNG – bis 200 bar komprimiert – bereits Anwendung finden, sind:

• 2,3-fache höhere Energiedichte
• höhere Wirtschaftlichkeit, ab Entfernungen  über 100 km
• Verwendung als Energiespeicher

Biokraftstoffe der übernächsten Generation werden sich gegen krafstofflose Fahrzeuge behaupten müssen. Elektroautos, heute noch ein Nischenprodukt, werden zunehmend wirtschaftlich attraktiv. Biokraftstoffe werden ab nicht verschwinden, ihre Erzeugung wird generationsübergreifend sein; dazukommen werden aber Wasserstoff – für die Anwendung von Brennstoffzellen und Algen – für die Erzeugung von Bioethanol, als auch Biogas. Was werden wir in der Zukunft tanken? Stellt man diese Frage im Jahre 2020, werden die Antworten vielfälltig sein.

Já passou um bom tempo desde meu ultimo post, tenho alguns já escritos mas ainda faltando alguma referencia ou apenas referencias mas faltando escrever.

Agora pela manhã estava vendo as abas do meu explorer que haviam ficadas abertas a já quase 03 dias e tinha uma do youtube com o nome de Social Media Revolution, não sei onde peguei o link em algum blog, twitter, email ou apenas navegando e procurando referencias, mas o engraçado é que a humanidade não caminha mais, ela surfa, desliza, navega na WWW diferente dos descobridores dos 7 mares ou nossos Bandeirantes que se embrenhavam nos mares, florestas e trilhas pelo mundo afora e outros adentro, trazendo novas culturas, cheiros, paladares, linguas, customes, vestimentas, tecnologia, educação, crenças entre outros tantos de coisas que foram descobertas ou recobertas em alguns casos, isso tudo é passado AGORA.

Toda a descoberta esta a apenas alguns toques iniciando o browser e digitando BING, GOOGLE e outros, ou seus amigos não estão mais na casa/apartamento ao lado ou bairro mas a alguns VARIOS KMs de distancia e ao mesmo tempo não pois esta a alguns toques na barra de endereços do browser SPACES, FACE, ORKUT, TWITTER e variassss outras redes e ainda não existe mais o curriculo via carta (lembra? Datilografar o primeiro, depois tirar uma fotocópia, colocar no envelope, etiquetar, postar no correio e esperar sentado), agora temos sites de vagas né e o melhor de tudo redes voltadas para perfis profissionais como LINKEDIN, PLAXO e etc.

Como o mundo mudou né celular toda criança tem, com GPS, MP3 Player, Videos, Fotos e é claro acesso a web, me lembro dos chamados planos de expansão para telefonia fixa, aquela demora para ter uma segunda linha no meu quarto, tinha que usar o telefone da sala ou dos meus pais, agora minha filha pega o meu note que é tablet gira a tela pega a pen e começa a usa-lo e ela tem apenas 06 anos recém completos, fala pra mãe quero ver o papai e da-lhe msn e skype.

E assim caminha a humanidade, todo esse texto começou pois vi os 03 videos abaixo que falam sobre REDES SOCIAS, WEB, CRESCIMENTO POPULACIONAL, QI, MUDANÇAS OU SERIA QUEBRAS DE PARADIGMAS, acho que para quebrar teria que existir algo né, mas estamos criando algo novo a cada dia, E ASSIM CAMINHA A HUMANIDADE….

Assistam aos videos eles são complementares em infos e tem o terceiro abaixo que é um versão feita em nossas terras tupiniquins, comentem e vamos fazer, desenvolver e criar discussões sobre esse tema e outros tantos.

A Revolução da Mídia Social

Did You Know? 2008

Adaptação de Did You Know

Some people have a knack for talking to people on the phone, whilst most of us are comfortable for talking to our friends and colleagues on the phone, most of us just cant bear to pick up the phone and call a complete random and talk to them for 3-10 minutes.

Cold Calling can be a relatively low cost exercise in testing out your value propositions in the real world. It can also be a valuable method for gathering qualitative market research, forming new business relationships and getting your brand out into your  market.

There are many great authors out there (that I truly respect) such as Frank Rumbauskas, that argue that you should just “stop cold calling and start selling” and I took that and said to myself…

“What would I do if I stopped cold calling to get leads?”

Having a website that is geared to deliver good leads that you can call back, or transfer into sales direct on the web is one way you can get rid of cold calls, however if you were stuck in a situation where  other lead generation mechanisms just aren’t effective.

My situation was this:

• Limited (but lucrative) audience geographically spread out,
• No budget for direct mail,
• Target market was a highly involved audience that spent little time reading direct mail outs.
• Limited access to redevelop the website to get better leads

Cold calling was the only method I could think of that would give me those leads…

On the  next blog post I am going to go through what I did with the strategy.  With every Marketing activity, you wont get good results unless you get the strategy right.  So we will go through the strategy formulation for cold calling.

Ce poate fi mai perfect decât un triptic? Un triptic de dream marketing. Deşi marketingul, în sine, este o fabrică de vise, am întâlnit într-o singură zi trei idei. Un sandvici cu umplutură amară, sau o prăjitură la care bucătarul a greşit blatul de mijloc. Mă rog, las povestea să curgă.

Să  pornim de la blat…

O delicioasă atmosferă de brainstorming. O clădire veche, din centrul istoric al Bucureştilor, atât cât a scăpat de mâna dementă a lui Ceauşescu. Lumina de miere curge prin vitralii, te scufunzi în scaunele moi de piele şi laşi mintea să fugă la miile de poveşti tragice, comice, romantice care s-au perindat între pereţi. Ideile ţâşnesc ca arteziana, atât de multe încât trebuie să te opreşti. Pentru cei care lucrează în clădirea puţin cam întunecoasă şi înghesuită între celelalte istorii lumina e tristă şi eprimantă, dar pentru vizitator e un regal. Unde e legătura cu marketingul? În comunicarea indirectă de identitate. Un trecut solid, un prezent savuros…

Miezul e amărui. De treci codrii de aramă, pe lângă librăria de pe colţ, de la Universitate, vezi un semn de cafenea. Crezi, la început, că e starbucks. nu e. Un semn furat, o istorie împrumutată, o lipsă totală de imaginaţie şi de etică.

Dar glazura… Glazura e de clasă. Am fost la tot felul de evenimente de lansare, de comunicare… Aseară am văzut unul impecabil, pentru O’Lay, O Andreea Berecleanu moale, catifelată şi ademenitoare ca valurile mării noaptea, în iulie. Un cort de La Ţigănci, cu candeabre de altădată şi şemineu de mâine.

Un loc de suflet al copilăriei mele, Palatul Ghika, redescoperit şi scos la lumină ca o femeie frumoasă, de un stilist inspirat. Mă duc repede să mă dau cu cremuţa.

Portada de un tríptico promocional de a nueva colección de Amazzonas Diseños. Lolita 2010

Esta reconocida marca de ropa playera y trajes de baño ha confiado en nuestra visión de la publicidad para lanzar al mercado su nueva colección: Lolita 2010, la cual consisten una variada gama de excelentes propuestas que conjugan formas y colores de una increíble armonía. Debido a lo variado de sus ejes en distribución ( Aruba, Bonaire, Francia, Chile, Venezuela) pensamos en hacer una imagen universal pero que a su vez reflejara la osadía y brillantez de la mujer venezolana. les dejamos algunos shots de las estrategias (BTL).

tríptico promocional de la nueva colección de Amazzonas Diseños. Lolita 2010

Cuando pensaba que lo había visto en publicidad, me llega este video de publicidad mosqueante. Porque el soporte son moscas que llevan pegadas una pequeña banderola y que se van posando en los potenciales clientes de la Feria del Libro de Frankfurt. Literalmente, la publicidad te llega volando. Una idea un poco asquerosa, pero supongo que de alto impacto y bajo coste.

Vía Eduard Nogués

clientul ideal pentru btl-ist e o bere. berea se vinde în orice anotimp, berea face turneu fie ploaie, fie vânt, cu orzu’ pe la pământ. berea e plină de bugete şi btl-uri. berea îţi dă o sută de mii doar să-i stai alături. oricând are ea chef.
daţi-mi o bere şi vă înconjur pămantul!. cu spectacole, scene, schele, artişti, corturi, artificii, mici şi desigur, bere.
eşti bere cu mine, sunt frate cu tine. se intră greu în branşa asta. se lucrează pe cunoştinţe, pile, relaţii, felaţii. cine apucă un ciolan de bere, va avea aur. în cont. cine nu are bere, să-şi cumpere. dacă vara nu-i ca iarna da-i ca toamna, consumul pe cap de vită furajată scade. dar btl-ul tot se face. dacă vara e ca vara, creşte consumul, creşte btl-ul, creşte procentul, creşte zămbetul. c’aşa-i în bere.
in bere veritas! nu, vinul nu e o sfârâiala. în zona de vin atl-ul primează. să fie primate la ele acasă! neinteresant subiect vinul. din punctul ăsta de vedere.
aşa că revin şi vă întreb: nu ştiti o bere care caută un btl vivace?

Orbit ha roto las reglas de oro del packaging. Ahora propone packs repulsivos para evitar que el consumidor coja sus productos… bueno, lo cierto es que son para que tus colegas no te gorreen tus chicles. Para ello han creado un microsite donde el consumidor puede tunear el pack o enviar su propio diseño (en la web orbit podéis ver algunos ejemplos de esta customizacion). Una idea con mucho humor que ya ha conseguido más de 1.500 diseños y está teniendo mucha repercusión en la red. Felicidades a la agencia Mark/BBDO de la República Checa por haber conseguido que  marca y consumidor interactúen, se diviertan y construyan relaciones emocionales decisivas a la hora de elegir una marca de chicles en el lineal.

Vía Publicidad y salud

CREDITS / Y: 2009, A: Publicis & Diggital_, CD: Miha Bevc, C: zkotzelo.si, D: Primoz Kos, Gregor Ceferin, AccD: Luka Klemenc, Sasa Leben, P: Aljosa Gomilsek, Andrej Ravnikar, E: Sergeja Gradisek, PH: zkotzelo.si

STORY / Microsoft launched the all new Windows 7 with the international slogan: Your PC, simplified. Microsoft Slovenia asked us to deliver a low budget BTL and interactive campaign with the same slogan. So we took the simplification very serious and we simplified just about everything we touched during this campaign. We started with simplified press conference, we simplified the minisite, we did the simplification contest and we even shoot 6 teaser viral clips (with a very talented group zkotzelo.si) to boost the interest about the product and the contest. Take a look at some of them …

Superheroes, simplified …

Soap opera, simplified …

done

Raising rap stars, simplified …

done

Football, simplified …

done

Ojalá yo fuera un Nuevo Golf GTI. Esto es lo que piensan todos los coches de este parking gracias a la ingeniosa campaña de Volkswagen realizada por Ogilvy Ciudad del Cabo

Vía Ads of the world

La verdad es que estoy de pie aplaudiendo con esta acción de Pantene que no se si llamarla ATL o BTL ya que no se por que canales lo transmitieron.

4 minutos dura este corto y la verdad es que si lo hicieron para la televisión deben haber invertido bastante.

Por ahí me gusta ver como comunican los orientales ya que son una cultura muy distinta a la nuestra. Son exagerados, cuentan bien en detalle toda la historia y tienen un humor bastante distinto al nuestro.

Si bien fue un poco exagerado el vuelo del pelo cuando la chica esta en el escenario esta película se lleva todo mi aplauso y admiración.

MUY BIEN CONCEPTUALIZADO!.

Utilizar edificios como soporte publicitario no es algo nuevo, pero llenarlo con 5.6 millones de LEDs y cubrir 17.500 metros cuadrados de superficie ya es otra cosa. Esto es exactamente lo queha hecho  ag4 media facade en la antigua sede central de la compañía Bayer en Alemania para convertida en “edificio-anuncio” visible desde varios kilómetros de distancia.

Vía Anepco

¿Qué mejor para demostrar la comodidad de un Audi que sustituir unas butacas de cine por asientos reales de esta marca? Esta campaña de Y&R Vilnius es un poco antigua, del 2006, pero la idea vale la pena.

Una interesante campaña en el Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport. Las cintas de equipaje nos sugieren descansar en el Beau Rivera Resort después de un largo y agotador viaje hasta el Mississipi.

I am at the 2009 Gasification Technologies Conference this week, with a pretty full schedule. But there are three stories that I wanted to quickly hit. One is a follow-up on the previous cellulosic ethanol post, one is about Paul Sankey’s new report on peak demand, and the last is on a technology that ExxonMobil has reported on here at the conference that I felt was quite interesting. There will probably be no more new posts from me until the weekend. I only got away with this one because I decided to write instead of network (which I hate to do anyway) during free periods today.

When Technologies Are Mandated

I don’t care too much for mandates. I think they are so much worse than subsidies, because with a mandate you are really saying that it doesn’t matter how much it costs, you don’t want to know how much it costs – just do it.

If the government thought it was a good idea to blend bio-butanol into the gas supply, they could offer a $0.50/gallon subsidy to do so. If that doesn’t result in butanol entering the fuel supply, then that’s a pretty good indication that butanol is at more than a $0.50/gal disadvantage to gasoline. But imagine instead that it is mandated. The costs could go very high in that case, but gasoline blenders would still have to pay up. We may find out that the cost to fuel suppliers was $8.00/gal. Had it been a subsidy instead – and it needed to go to $4 or $5/gal to make it economical – it would have never passed because the costs would be more transparent.

Thus, I was not too enthusiastic about the cellulosic ethanol mandates we got as part of the 2007 RFS. In 2010, for instance, it is mandated that 100 million gallons of advanced biofuels will be blended into the fuel supply. Cellulosic ethanol has been the technology that has been favored, but I have warned about costs that are going to be very high. Instead of a mandate, suppose we put a $1/gal subsidy in for cellulosic ethanol. Then instead of relying on people promising that they can make cellulosic ethanol for $1/gal if they can just get grants, mandates, and loan guarantees – you put the burden on the producer. Here is a $1/gal subsidy for you. Build the plant, make your $1/gal ethanol, and collect the subsidy.

Not surprisingly we are now getting news that despite throwing a lot of money at it, the 2010 levels of cellulosic ethanol are going to fall far short of the mandate – as I have been saying all along. They are going to need more money to meet future mandates – highlighting the problems I have with mandates. From the NYT:

Biofuels Producers Warn They Are Going to Fall Far Short of Federal Mandates

“The current economic climate almost makes the RFS a moot point for the time being,” said Matt Carr, policy director for the Biotechnology Industry Organization.

His organization estimated last month that 2010 volumes will, optimistically, reach 12 million gallons, far short of the 100-million-gallon mandate that year.

Range Fuels had gotten an initial $76 million from the DOE, then an $80 loan guarantee from the USDA. They also got $100 million in private equity. (I predict some folks are going to lose some money – including taxpayers). But that still wasn’t enough, so they went back to the DOE for more money. This time, the DOE said no:

The Department of Energy’s loan guarantee program, producers say, has been particularly flawed. No advanced biofuel makers, aside from a partnership between BP PLC and Verenium Corp., have so far won approvals.

“We received a ‘Sorry, Charlie’ letter,” said Bill Schafer, a senior vice president of Range Fuels Inc., which is now building a cellulosic facility in Soperton, Ga., slated for completion early next year.

He said that under the program, biofuels companies must compete directly against solar, wind and even compressed natural gas — all energy technologies that, unlike advanced biofuels, have already been built at commercial scale.

So there you have it. The DOE seems to be losing some of the earlier enthusiasm for cellulosic ethanol. Range Fuels is here at the conference, by the way. I should probably say hi.

Again, this highlights the risk of mandates. Costs can spiral out of control. The ultimate cost can’t be easily predicted. Instead of assuming that technology can be mandated if enough money is thrown at it, we would all have been better off had there merely been subsidies offered. In that case, if this is truly not economically viable, the taxpayer may not have to foot the bill for millions of dollars for failed or stalled plants.

Printing Money

One of the reasons I invest in oil companies is that I think oil prices will continue to spike higher in the future. Because of the recession, we currently find ourselves with excess production capacity. But it looks to me like that excess production capacity will be eroded in the future, which will once again put pressure on prices. Oil companies will again reap very big profits by supplying a dwindling resource. (Whether governments will aggressively move to confiscate these profits is another question entirely).

There is another view that the oil companies will die out as oil depletes, and therefore oil stocks are very risky investments in the longer term. I don’t subscribe to this view because I believe the oil companies will possess enough cash to enter into any future energy business that looks lucrative. If we are supplying 90% of the cars with liquid fuels derived from coal in 20 years, I suspect it will be the oil companies producing it. In fact, most major oil companies – ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips – have active programs in this area. It is a naïve view to think that the oil industry as a whole will fail to anticipate the changing markets. That’s why I always think it is humorous that people feel the ethanol industry is a threat. If the oil industry thought it was a threat, there is nothing keeping them from getting involved.

Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank just put forth both views in a new report. As I have mentioned previously, I think Sankey is an analyst who really understands the industry. And I agree with his first comments. I just don’t think he is right about the second point.

Don’t Fill Up on ConocoPhillips

That one is a somewhat misleading title because he is recommending ConocoPhillips (which I do own):

DESPITE NUMEROUS SIGNS that the global economy is still struggling, just about everyone following energy predicts at least one more spike in oil prices in coming years.

It’s just that scenario that prompted Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey to publish today a 61-page opus to clients in which he upgraded shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) to “Buy” from “Hold” and raised his price target to $55 from $40.

Sankey’s thesis — and he’s not alone — is that Conoco will benefit in such a scenario by being able to sit back and milk profits from its existing reserves of oil with minimal new investment, thus leading to generous cash flows.

In brief, Sankey sees global demand surging again with economic rejuvenation, leading to a spike in oil of $175 per barrel in 2016, after which developments in global fuel efficiency, specifically electric cars, will cause demand for crude to fall off precipitously, until oil comes back into equilibrium with supply at $100 per barrel in 2030.

Sankey spells out why he is long-term bearish on the oil companies:

Peak Oil: The End Of the Oil Age is Near, Deutsche Bank Says

Deutsche Bank expects the electric car to become a truly “disruptive technology” which takes off around the world, sending demand for gasoline into an “inexorable and accelerating decline.”

In 2020, the bank expects electric and hybrid vehicles to account for 25% of new car sales—in both the U.S. and China. “We expect [electric propulsion] will reverse the dynamics of world oil demand, and spell the end of the oil age,” the bank writes.

But won’t cheaper oil in the future just lead to a revival in oil demand? That’s what’s happened in every other cycle. Au contraire, says the bank: Just as the explosion of digital cameras made the cost of film irrelevant, the growth of electric cars will make the price of oil (and gasoline) all but irrelevant for transportation.

He could be right, but I am betting against it. But I may find that in 20 years ConocoPhillips’ core business is something entirely different than it is today.

ExxonMobil’s MTG Technology

One of the more interesting presentations for me at the gasification conference has been ExxonMobil’s work on a different kind of coal-to-liquids (CTL) technology. Conventional CTL would involve gasification of the coal to syngas, followed by a Fischer Tropsch reaction that converts the gas into liquid fuels such as diesel. Exxon has a different process, in which they gasify the coal, but then they turn it into methanol. As I have said before, methanol can be made quite efficiently, and I think it’s a shame that it wasn’t allowed to compete with ethanol on an equal footing. But the technology doesn’t stop at methanol. The methanol is dehydrated to di-methyl-ether (DME, also a nice fuel). The DME is then passed over a catalyst and converted to gasoline in yields of around 90%. The technology is called methanol-to-gasoline (MTG).

The process has been around for a while, but hasn’t gotten much attention. In the 80’s and 90’s, they ran a 14,500 bbl/day plant in New Zealand. As far as synthetic fuel facilities go, that’s a big plant with an impressive track record of operation. The on-stream reliability of the plant was over 95% during its operation. (Following the oil price collapse in the 90’s, the plant stopped upgrading the methanol, and just made methanol the end product).

The advantage of the process is that capital costs are reportedly lower than FT, and the product is gasoline – in high demand in the U.S. The disadvantage is that the process produces relatively little diesel and jet fuel. The military and various airlines are highly interested in FT because of its ability to supply these important fuels.

Exxon reports that a new plant, based on 2nd generation technology with better heat integration and process efficiency, has been built in Shanxi, China. At 2,500 bbl/day, the facility is smaller than the earlier New Zealand facility, but Exxon has licensed MTG technology to a pair of companies in the U.S. DKRW announced in 2007 that they would utilize MTG in a 15,000 bbl/day facility in Medicine Bow, WY. Synthesis Energy Systems announced in September 2008 that they would license MTG for their global CTL projects.

While Exxon seems to be more focused on coal to gasoline, there is no reason this process couldn’t be used to turn natural gas or biomass into gasoline (GTL and BTL). This technology could be complementary to FT technology, providing gasoline while FT supplies the liquid fuels needed for airlines, marine applications, long-haul trucking, and the military.

During the Q&A, though, one guy asked “If this is so great, why aren’t you building these plants yourselves?” The answer was that they weren’t experts, and only wanted to license.

La comunicación brasileña siempre ha destacado por su gran sentido del humor. Pero esta idea de Trampolim Comunicação utilizando un dispensador de jabón para Kleenex me parece un poco…(poned vosotros las palabras)

A mí que me encantan los pop ups de papel, me parece genial esta campaña de Thai TWBA para promocionar el deporte en cualquier momento y en cualquier lugar.