Bubbles cause misallocation of capital. The temptation of money-for-nothing perverts the reward system in the affected society. Hard working citizens are at the very least distracted, and at worst throw themselves into non-productive endeavours. -vreaa

Yalie at vancouvercondo.info 29 Nov 2009 3:59 pm & 4:13 pm responds to the statements made by wannabe flippers at the recent release of presales for ‘The Mark’ condo complex -

“I’m not a vindictive person, but with such breathtaking displays of ignorance as these, it’s hard not to think “I can’t wait for the day when these guys get exactly what they deserve”. Actually, I DO want these guys to get what they deserve. They represent everything that’s wrong with our society lately – basically people trying to generate cash without generating anything of value. As an entrepreneur, I have been busting my butt the last three years building a real business, with a real product, that people can actually use. It would be bad enough if these flippers were merely throwing themselves off the financial cliff, but what really gets me is that through the associated misapplication of capital and the inevitable economic fallout they’re creating, they’re also going to take out hard-working, honest people who do real work.”

Happy December my fellow Dorks! The holidays are in full swing and I have so so many plans up my sleeves. But I wanted to make a change before I put out all my holiday related poses. My prop based poses will now be fully adjustable via menu! Yup… no more editing and unlinking! So to introduce this new feature I have updated my 2 most popular poses. Whopperjawed and Bubble Doodle are now adjustable! Not only that, it will also save the 50 most recent avatar settings! What does this mean? If you love taking pics with all your friends, you only need to adjust it once. Even after you leave and come back (as long as the scripts do not get reset)! These are currently ONLY available at my shop at The Deck.

Also a reminder about the Footwear Expo. Pump It Up is only available during the expo. Once it is over this will no longer be available to purchase. A portion of all items purchased at the aDORKable booth, along with many other designers booths, will go to Toys For Tots. Don’t forget to get a raffle ticket for a chance to win items from well known designers across SL. This is your last week to enjoy the expo! Search footwear expo for a direct link.

For a direct TP to aDORKable Poses @ The Deck, click HERE.

This from MPM at greaterfool.ca 30 Nov 2009 11:08 am -

“I have lived near this street for 6 years [Denman St in Vancouver], and currently there are 4 empty stores (the most I have ever seen). Two of them say that they are renovating, but there is never anyone there. I imagine that most of them are being pushed out by greedy landlords charging insane prices to lease a 250 sq ft store… Just up the road, there is a ‘dream condo’ development – 8 floors on Robson st with a Starbucks on the street, what else in Vancouver?? This was a perfectly functioning office building for the past 40 years before the idea of building condos. Construction stopped about a year ago and it is completely covered by tarps. The only work happening on the site is the security guard that you see there once in a blue moon….”

It is often lonely to be a contrarian. Bears who see the Canadian RE bubble for what it is are emotionally depleted and extremely frustrated. This bear exhaustion is sometimes taken by contrarians to be a sign of a market top. To be fair to the bullish argument, however, is to note that some bears in Vancouver have been exhausted for years.

This from Jonas at greaterfool.ca 30 Nov 2009 at 12:06 am -

“I was at a dinner party and a stupid couple that recently bought were there. Someone other than me had the sense to ask  “What if the rates go up?”. (There is a god, I thought.) Then the morons actually said they think that rates will go down from here, and stay down for years. Give me strength and stop me from stabbing them both with my fork. I attempted to explain that rates were basically zero and Carney has already alluded to the plan that he will begin to raise rates at some point in the summer, but why fricking bother? About half of the people thought that prices will continue to rise as the economy continues to grow. I tried to explain that rates are historically low, will not go lower, and that incomes are flat to down, and that employment is down and getting worse. I asked them where they thought house prices would be when the variable rate is 5% and rising, and the fricking dumba$$ actually said higher. I swear to god it’s like living in a bad zombie movie. They are every where, stupid people without a brain that God gave a gnat. These will all be the same people with their hands out when the shit hits the fan, and [every] last one of them with a surprised stupid look on their faces will collectively say “Wow, huh… I didn’t see that one comin’”

THANK YOU DAN EDSTROM:

Hats off to Dan for explaining the logistics of how additional people were added toy our deal, that you have a  right to know who they are and how their addition to your deal changes everything. Here is what he said:

So the homeowner gave an unconditional promise to pay. The “investors” who purchased securities from the issuing entity (the trust) stood up as the lender and provided the money. Now is where it gets tricky. Another 3rd party sprang up between the two and became the obligor to the lender. That is, they took over the CONDITIONS for providing payments to the “investors”. As Maher just said, they sliced and diced everything up into small pieces. But one thing is for sure, the relationship between the original borrower and the ultimate lender was bifurcated. They abstracted out the borrowers obligation to pay and replaced it with another 3rd party obligation to pay that is jacked up full of all kinds of goodies that apply not only to the investors, but to the borrowers also. This 3rd party took over the borrowers obligation to pay such that the borrower does not have to make payments and the “investor” lender’s payments are still “magically” made.

What are these “goodies” and magic? Advances, credit default swaps, hedges, insurance, over-collateralization, extra pools of funds, payments from borrowers in lower level tranches, you name it. And of course this does not even include government bailouts, write-offs, charge-offs, etc. The homeowners obligation to pay has been eviscerated.

Thanks,
Dan Edstrom
dmedstrom@hotmail.com

NOW AVAILABLE ON AMAZON KINDLE!!

Pursuit vs. UBS Drills Down to Real Benefits to Intermediaries While Real PARTIES — Investors and Homeowners — get the shaft UBS090909

This is a case of an investor suing the underwriter of the mortgage backed bonds purchased as “investment grade securities.” As we have pointed out on these pages for two years, the underwriter wears so many hats that it is impossible to track them without nailing them down in discovery and motions to compel. It is only when the real flow of documents and the real flow of money is analyzed that you can see the pattern of deception designed to screw the investors, screw the homeowners and run with the money and now, through illegal and improper foreclosures, they run with the property too. Here is an excerpt from the attached Opinion dated September, 2009.

“Based on the above-mentioned evidence, the court finds that the Plaintiffs’ have presented sufficient evidence to satisfy the probable cause standard with respect to their claim that UBS was in possession of superior knowledge that was not readily available to the Plaintiffs. This material nonpublic information related to rating agency downgrades that would significantly decrease, if not render worthless, the CDO Notes it was selling Pursuit. Further, UBS was aware the Pursuit was only seeking to invest in CDO Notes rated “investment grade,” and UBS knew that byinvesting in the subject CDO Notes, Pursuitwas acting on the basis of misleading information. Moreover, because UBS was in the position of “Super-senior Noteholder” in the structure of these CDOs, such ratings downgrades, while working to the detriment of buyers like the Plaintiffs, could work to the benefit of sellers like UBS in the super-senior position, because super-seniors have first dibs on whatever payments are made on a CDO. A UBS Securities LLC credit analyst explained it in an October 16, 2007 email sent to Morelli and others. Writing about the billions of dollars in Moody’s downgrades, downgrades that were now public knowledge,
the UBS analyst wrote, “These bonds [subject to downgrades] appear in countless CDOs.

The downgrades were more severe than what the market seemed to anticipate !!! And !!! The downgrades could constitute a triggering event that would be an Event of Default for various for various CDOs. . . If this occurs, then it may prove salutary for the Super-senior holders [like UBS] as more cash flow would be preserved for their protection.”

Beer Day Wallpaper Pack

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Even though the BOC rates have yet to rise, there is evidence of tightening from lenders. RBC recently increased terms on LOC loans (from prime +1% to prime +2% for many borrowers). This without a change in prime. Now comes news that may herald the beginning of hard times for speculators.

This from McLovin on robchipman.net 29 Nov 2009 12:29 pm -

“An interesting side-bar on “banks tightening up”… HSBC will [now] only finance 60% of the first $500K for a non-owner occupied [investment] (Rental unit), and 50% of the remainder. Even to a mega-bear like me that is excessive. Either they don’t really want to lend money, or they see bad things coming. This means that, for a non-owner occupied $1,000,000 property, HSBC is asking for 45% down.”

NOW AVAILABLE ON AMAZON KINDLE!

MERS and Countrywide v Agin Trustee D Ct Mass Aff’d B Ct on Avoidance Mtg 20091117

NOTE FROM EDITOR SEEKING HELP: Rumor has it San Diego has stopped all foreclosures. I need this corroborated or debunked quickly. Can I get a little help here?

The case in this POST comes out of Massachusetts where the cases are not quite stopped, but almost so — AND where property title insurance companies are NOT underwriting ANY policy that covers a home whose mortgage was securitized.

Many thanks to MAX GARDNER for this case and best wishes for his speedy recovery. He’s one of the titans of this movement. we want him around!

The primary point that needs emphasis here is that as you read this case you will see that if you give the Court something SOLID to hang its hat on, you can get the results you want.

The mistake being made repeatedly out there is simple: either the homeowner or the lawyer goes in with a legal argument addressing the conclusions of the case instead of directing the Judge’s attention to the beginning of the case — discovery, motions to compel, TRO etc. based upon discovery requirements.

The obvious requirement that you need to know in your mind what you are talking about it so you know the significance of the issue legally seems to  have escaped all but a few lawyers. Many lawyers are taking half baked “audits” going to court and making legal arguments about a report they have not read, do not understand and which does not contains all the elements needed anyway.

You must educate the Judge not lecture him. You must NOT rely on securitization in your preliminary arguments because it sounds like legal maneuvering to get out of a legitimate debt.

Unfortunately these mistakes are being made even by people who have attended our survey courses. So we are expanding our offering by adding DVDs, Boot Camps and home study.

Our own efforts at providing forensic review and expert support to lawyers has been challenged by the growing demand vs manpower limitations. Consequently, we will embark on efforts to increase the bandwith or resources in terms of people through educational programs. We will then start to refer cases to forensic analysts and lawyers.

We  are starting courses to train, and certify forensic analysts who pick up even the most minute flaw in a document — like a document you you know in your heart is fabricated and forged but feel intimidated by the process of proving it.

In conjunction with specific courses on training forensic analysts we will also offer addtional courses on how to be expert witnesses, how to prepare expert declarations and affidavits and how to defend your expert declarations in deposition or in an evidentiary hearing. The course is also for lawyers who feel they could use a little support on direct and cross examination of experts.

Speculators continue to bet on rising Vancouver RE prices, and some still appear to be anticipating that the effect of the Olympics is not yet priced into the market.

Here are extracts from a report by Sam Cooper in The Province 29 Nov 2009 -

“The buzz is back. In scenes rarely seen since the Vancouver real-estate market peaked in early 2008, a horde of hungry investors lined up for hours in a downpour Saturday [28 Nov 2009] to get first dibs on pre-sale condo units in a tower to be erected in Yaletown. Cam Good, who is heading up marketing for “The Mark” by Onni, said some investors even slept outside Friday night to ensure prime line-up positions. “We’re blown away by the turnout,” Good said from inside the downtown pre-sale centre as about 50 investors scrambled around a model of the building.”

“While the global debt and credit crisis continues to haunt developments in former real-estate hotspots like Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, Good said Vancouver is back in boom times.”The [real-estate] strength in Vancouver is unlike anything in the world,” Good said.”

“Mayur Arora, who told The Province he hoped to land a top-floor unit, and his realtor K.D. Dhaliwal, said location and scarcity make the site an attractive investment. “I’m here because they are selling Yaletown at today’s prices, but the speculation is [that] prices will go up after the Olympics,” Arora said.  Steve Dhana was amazed by speculator interest as he watched investors rushing to place bids on units. “The prices went up $50,000 last night,” Dhana said. He hoped to buy a unit in the $500,000 price-range, and also expected prices to surge in February 2010.”

During asset bubbles, it is relatively easy for participants to almost imperceptibly leverage themselves into more and more exposure to the inflating asset class, thus putting themselves at risk of complete wipe-out when the bubble pops. Participants actually believe that they are being prudent, and their ever expanding paper-profit bottom line reassures them and reinforces their behaviour. The fact that they are taking substantial risk and speculating on ongoing price appreciation may not be obvious to them. -vreaa

The Bill Good show on CKNW Friday 27 Nov 2009 at 10.30 am featured discussion with Garth Turner (greaterfool.ca) and realtor Tony Ioannou of Dexter Realty Vancouver (author of ‘Buying and Selling a Home for Canadians For Dummies’). These excerpts -

Tony Ioannou – “[We are] dealing with a lot of people who think that they have to buy now because the market is running away from them. Most of the people we are dealing with are buying a property to live in… a principle residence… very little speculation in the market.. Very few of our clients are going to ‘the end’ of what they can afford.. They might be approved for a 500K mortgage, [but] they’re taking out a 300K mortgage.. They’re not overextending themselves as they might have done a couple of years ago… We still have some off-shore money coming into Vancouver and the lower mainland but much, much less than in the past. Most of the people we are dealing with are local people just upgrading, mostly move up buyers from a small apartment to a townhouse, townhouse to a house, or up to a bigger house. We’re still dealing with a lot of first time buyers.. [they are] very cautious,… they’ve worked hard to make a downpayment they’re not going to throw it away… So they’re very very cautious and slowly entering the market.”

Garth Turner, in response to the above, said that there was a “giant argument that interest rates would not stay low”. He also pointed out that the average abode cost “between 7 and 10 times the average family income” in Vancouver which was “by world standards, severely overpriced”.

Tony Ioannou continued – “A lot of our clients do have a huge amount of equity, especially if they are in the market, trading up. One quick example, I’d sold a property to a young couple in 2000, a $300,000 townhouse, [with] conventional financing, I went to meet with them last week, they now have paid off their mortgage, [their property is] now worth about $500,000 , they now have a half-million-dollar down payment to go and buy their first house”.

Garth Turner retorted – “Well, that’s exactly what scares me about this whole thing, when you have people who are taking… and in the case of that couple, I’m sure that constitutes the bulk of their net worth… anytime I see people taking the bulk of their net worth and dumping it into one asset and then trading up exactly the same asset class, and increasing their exposure as they go on and on and on…// If we do have an interest rate increase,.. if we have taxes go up,.. I cannot see the Vancouver real estate market sustaining its value going forward.”

CAVEAT -The veracity of the following story has been doubted by some commenters at robchipman.net.

The fact that stories like this are either true, or are seen as true in the public imagination, is noteworthy. Many locals have purchased RE in Vancouver based on the idea that hard working Chinese immigrants will continue to support the RE market.

This from The Chinese at robchipman.net 26 Nov 2009 8:21 pm -

“Me and my wife came to Canada [from China] with $3,000 10+ year ago. We bought an apartment in 2000, and worked hard, and paid it off in 4 years. Then we bought a house in 2005, and again worked hard and paid it off a year ago (before we reach our 40s). The house has a market value around $1 million in today’s market. Now we bought another house in a much better neighborhood on the west side, with very good schools, so our kids can receive a good education. We are not alone, lots of people from China are in similar boat as us. This is a culture value real estate, willing to work hard, willing to live below the mean to invest for the future and their kids, and willing to take calculated risk, and sometimes enjoy gamble. Now, more Chinese are coming, bringing way more than $3,000 – and they all share the same culture…”

Comments section at robchipman.net (26-28 Nov 2009) is liberally peppered with anecdotal observations of slowing RE markets in and around Vancouver. Perhaps it’s all attributable to the 25 days straight of heavy rain we’ve endured. This from Anonymous 28 Nov 2009 6:57 pm -

“Third offer on my place has fallen through. Reason was the same each time.  Failure to get financing. Banks may be tightening up.  I know my line of credit interest rate just went up. I’m dropping my price on Monday and will get out fast before this market turns sour on me.”

CAVEAT: Rob Chipman, in a posting at his blog (the source of this anecdote) 29 Nov 2009 10:04 am, expresses doubt regarding the veracity of this anecdote (based on IP address of a multiple-poster). Híppos Purrós in the same thread 29 Nov 2009 11:08 am also expressed doubt but, interestingly, added their own anecdote – “Both of [my] girlfriend’s recent YVR RE disposals have fallen through. Buyers’ financing was withdrawn at last moment by lenders concerned about pending special assessment”.

China sees huge rise in garlic prices

Garlic prices are hitting record highs in China, the world’s biggest producer of the pungent bulbs, amid reports of a speculative bubble in the market even as people rush to buy it as a putative cure for swine flu.

The China Daily reported last week that a high school in the eastern city of Hangzhou bought more than 400 pounds of garlic and made students eat it at lunch to stay healthy.

Wholesale garlic prices in Beijing are now 15 times as high as in March, and still rising.

Jerry Lou, a Morgan Stanley China strategist who has researched the opaque market here, said speculators — fueled by the abundant liquidity sloshing around China — have moved into the small market and strategically driven up prices.

“You need a warehouse, a lot of cash and a few trucks. That’s how it works,” Lou said, describing garlic speculators’ tools of the trade. “Basically, what you do is try to arrest as much supply as possible, then you bid up the price. Moving garlic from one warehouse to the other, you make millions of dollars.”

Lou said garlic wholesalers told him that gangs that had amassed cash and credit from dealing property and stocks in other parts of the country had chosen the garlic market as their latest ruse.

See also:
Garlic outperforming gold and stocks
Hold Your Nose: Garlic Is Best Investment in China
Garlic, China’s Best-Performing Asset
Chinese Garlic Market Reeks of Speculation
Garlic run smells like speculative bubble
Garlic prices in China shoot up on flu fears
China Sees Huge Rise in Garlic Prices
Garlic Dealers Cashing In On Flu Rumours
Savvy investors pile into Chinese garlic
Strong demand for garlic in China drives up local prices
Garlic Investors Smell Money

History repeats itself.

Tulipmania

Traditionally, the buying and selling of tulip bulbs occurred during the summer months, after the flower had bloomed in May or June (depending on the type) and the bulb was lifted from the soil, to be wrapped in paper and kept dry indoors. The flower would have been viewed by then and the bulbs, themselves, inspected and exchanged before being replanted in September. A seller promised to deliver the bulb when lifted and the purchaser to pay upon delivery. In trade such as this, honor obviously was important, especially since a blossom in the summer need not necessarilty look the same the following year. Indeed, the changeability of tulips was one of their charms. But such variations could lead to deception or at least the suspicion that bulbs might not be the same as contracted.

In the planting season of 1635, as prices began to rise, there was a fundamental change in how bulbs were traded in the Netherlands. Increasingly, they were sold by weight while still in the ground, with only a promissory note to indicate details of the bulb, including its weight at planting, and when it would be lifted. The bulbs, themselves, the delivery of which was months away, were not sold, only these paper promises. Weight was measured in aasen (azen or aces), an exceedingly small unit equal to one-twentieth of a gram, or less than .0018 of an ounce. Although paying by weight was a more fair way to assess price, an immature bulb costing less than a more mature one, it also increased the price of the heavier bulb. And, because a bulb planted in September or October likely would weight substantially more when lifted (after blooming) the following June or July, it encouraged speculation. Even if the price per aas did not change, the price of the bulb, itself, could increase three to five hundred percent over those nine months, depending upon weight. Heavier bulbs, too, tended to flower earlier and have more offsets, the smaller bulblets attached to the mother bulb.

Tulips grown from seed could take five to ten years to produce a flower, those from offsets from three to five years to become flowering bulbs themselves. Because a tulip bulb may produce only one or two offsets a year and then only for several years before the mother bulb, itself, dies, one found to have offsets when lifted obviously increased in value. But a grower could not afford to sell a particularly valuable bulb too soon. To do so would limit the ability to produce any more of that variety–which is why particularly desirable flowers always were in short supply.

Variegated tulips, those with contrasting markings, such as red (Rosen) or purple (Violetten) against a white ground (or bizarden, against a yellow ground), were most favored, especially those whose color was displayed as thin feathers or flames that symmetrically ran along the center of each pedal and around the edges. This vivid coloring, which so bewitched the Dutch, was caused by a virus that infected the tulip but also weakened it and reduced the number of offsets. A complete mystery at the time, the mosaic virus was conveyed by aphids, which flourished in the fruit trees that were a feature of seventeenth-century gardens. An infected flower was said to be “broken” and there was no way to determine if, or when, a flower would break. It was an unpredictable process that only added to the allure of the tulip for the Dutch.

The cultivation of new varieties in 1634 depressed prices, and tulips became accessible to a popular market. No longer the province of professional growers and connoisseurs, they now could be purchased by small buyers, such as the weaver or spinner and other crafts and tradespeople. For a modest investment, often paid for in kind, one could speculate in the more common tulips that were the stock of mass trade. Late that year, prices then swung in the opposite direction and began to rise. To meet demand, offsets were sold, which only could be separated when the bulb was lifted. Buying in the winter for delivery in the summer became acceptable and, by 1636, a futures market had developed for the bulbs, themselves. Buyers promised to pay a specified price for bulbs in the ground at a fixed time in the future, speculating that, at lifting time, they would be worth more than the promissory note, which then could be sold to a new buyer in hope of realizing a profit. As spring approached and expectation increased, this trade in tulip futures became more frenzied, and, by November and December of that year, speculation was at its height. Prices for so-called “piece” goods (the more desirable varieties) doubled or trebled, and even the most plain and common tulips, which previously had been disdained, were bought. Indeed, these “pound” goods, which were sold in bulk, rose as much as twenty-fold. Smaller lots were offered, as well, and bulbs could be purchased by the basket, the pound, or the ace. Goods in kind were delivered at once, and cows and cloth, looms and land, shops and houses paid to secure the purchase.

At the height of this tulip mania, most transactions did not even involve the exchange of goods but became purely speculative. “Everything was worth money and so current that one could get in exchange almost anything one desired,” says Gaergoedt. “And all this with promises and vouchers, when the bulbs were in the earth” (First Dialogue). Even though buyers did not have the cash amount or sellers actually possess the bulb, there still was the expectation that a succeeding sale could be at an ever higher price. But buyers must have begun to wonder if the escalating prices of the previous two months could be sustained (and been suspicion, too, that more tulips would be grown, increasing the supply). In the first week of February 1637, when investors were not willing to go higher, the market collapsed, the bulbs contracted the previous autumn still in the ground.

As Gaergoedt, who had mortgaged his house, laments: “it has been a madness.”

In the end, tulips are tulips and garlic is garlic. Just like the Tulipmania of the mid 1630s, the Chinese garlic bubble will also collapse and all the latecomers to the speculative garlic frenzy will be left holding the clove, financially ruined.

/Devil Take the Hindmost

There are many important variables affecting the Vancouver RE market that are very difficult to measure. What is the effect of intergenerational wealth transfer? How many Vancouverites own houses in lieu of RRSPs? How many current owners are planning on ‘cashing out’ in one or five or ten years time? Anecdotes serve as an imperfect window into some of those factors.  This from pianoexcellence at RE Talks on 28 Nov 2009 9:56 am -

“Over the last two weeks, I’ve been hearing lots and lots of people in the ‘nearing baby boomer’ generation, of all socio-economic classes, talk about selling and downsizing. Many are not talking, but have already done it.  I still do a number of piano tunings and repair engagements. A lot of these are for previous piano students parents. I taught mainly Gr 10-12 high school students, and many of them are off to university. I’ve been getting a lot of calls right before thanksgiving to get the piano ready so they can play when they come home for thanksgiving. To my suprise, a number of [these families] had moved to a smaller place. A number of my other acquaintances, even my parents, are talking about it too.”

This from anonymous at vancouvercondo.info 27 Nov 2009 10:29 am -

“My friend works at HSBC and they just laid off ALL of their ‘Premium Wealth Managment’ staff yesterday [26 Nov 2009]. I don’t think this bodes well for the ‘rich Asians will save the market’ theory….”

I think Bob Herbert of the NY Times wrote today what will be eventually seen as the most important article on the financial crisis. We’ve seen it before — the children of the great depression, children of the holocaust, returning veterans from WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan. Now it’s the financial meltdown.We ignore it at our peril.

All these events have one inescapable thing in common — damaged children, the extent of which was not easily discernible until years later. Damaged children lead necessarily to a dysfunctional society, and that is what we have.

TODAY CHILDREN ARE GROWING UP WITH A HISTORY OF BEING TORN FROM THEIR HOMES, THEIR LIFESTYLES AND THEIR PRECIOUS HOPE AND TRUST IN THEIR PARENT’S PROTECTION IN A WORLD THAT IS NOT FAIR OR JUST. (It is this point and this point alone that I publish this blog, my writings, my public appearances and my seminars).

EXACTLY HOW MUCH BRAIN POWER DOES IT TAKE TO REALIZE HOW THESE CHILDREN WILL PERCEIVE THE WORLD WHEN THEY GROW UP AND START RUNNING THE WORLD? MAYBE WE SHOULD START PAYING ATTENTION TO THEM. MAYBE WE SHOULD GIVE THEM THE MESSAGE THAT THEY MATTER MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. MAYBE WE CAN MODEL HOW TO MAKE THE WORLD A LITLE BETTER FOR THE NEXT GENERATION.

But that’s just my opinion. I could be wrong.

Stacking the Deck Against Kids

Every year at Thanksgiving, parts of the Upper West Side of Manhattan become like a paradise for children. There’s the exciting preparation of the balloons and floats for the Thanksgiving Day parade, and then, on Thursday morning, the parade itself.

The weather isn’t always kind. I’ve seen the kids out there in snow, in freezing rain, in winds that threaten to send the balloons and their handlers soaring to distant venues. It doesn’t seem to matter. The children come into the neighborhood in waves, holding the hands of adults or riding atop their shoulders, smiling, laughing, playing hide-and-seek among the police barricades. Finally, inevitably, they end up staring in absolute open-mouthed, wide-eyed awe as the mammoth, colorful helium-filled creations of their favorite characters begin making their majestic way down Central Park West.

We have an obligation and an opportunity at this special moment in history to do right by these youngsters, and all the rest of America’s kids. It’s a special moment because we’ve seen so clearly the many things that have gone haywire in the society, and while it may not be easy to articulate, we have a sense of what needs to be done.

The American economy is broken, ruined by the greed and irresponsibility of fabulously wealthy corporate chieftains and their shabby acolytes and enablers in government. While Wall Street is handing out billions in bonuses, American families are struggling with joblessness, home foreclosures and rampant debt. The economic woes are exacting a fierce toll on family life, and children are taking a big hit — emotionally, psychologically and otherwise.

One effect of the Great Recession, according to a recent series in The Times, has been a big jump in the number of runaway children, many of them living in dangerous conditions on the street.

Family homelessness is also up, and poverty is increasing. More than a third of all black children in America are poor, and that tragic percentage is expanding. The outlook for America’s working classes is bleak. A few weeks ago a New York cab driver nearly broke down in tears as he told me he’d had to apply for food stamps to continue feeding his family.

A sense of urgency may be starting to emerge. With President Obama’s jobs summit approaching, representatives from labor and progressive organizations gathered in Washington to warn of the lasting damage being inflicted on the prospects of young Americans by the continuing employment crisis.

Millions of youngsters like those who were suffused with such delight at the Thanksgiving Day parade are being buffeted by an economy that is eroding their quality of life, curtailing their educational opportunities and undermining their prospects for economic success as adults. That more attention is not being paid to this growing disaster is criminal.

Groups represented at the meeting in Washington, which was sponsored by the Economic Policy Institute, included the A.F.L.-C.I.O., the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, the N.A.A.C.P., the National Council of La Raza and the Center for Community Change. Among other things, they urged the administration and Congress to provide substantial additional relief to economically distressed state and local governments, to invest in much more widespread infrastructure improvements, and to engage in some direct government creation of jobs.

All of that, in my view, would amount to just a first step. We remain stuck in an economic model that not only permits but encourages the continued existence of financial institutions that are too big to fail, which means that when one or more of them fail — as will surely happen at some point — we’ll again be rushing to “save the system” by bailing them out at taxpayers’ expense.

The system remains grotesquely unfair, with the deck stacked against working people, even as we’re desperate to have them sustain the economy with nonstop consumer purchases. Keep in mind that at the start of the recession the collective wealth of the richest 1 percent of Americans was greater than that of the bottom 90 percent combined. The economic and political clout of that bottom 90 percent has only weakened since then.

We still have a hideously dysfunctional public education system, one that has mastered the art of manufacturing dropouts and functional illiterates. We have not even begun to turn that around.

We still keep fighting tragic, futile, stupid wars, squandering lives and resources and creative energies that could be put to use right here at home, where the need for nation-building is beyond critical.

The U.S. should be a paradise for young people. We need big changes in this country, approaches that are constructive, creative and fundamentally new, if we’re going to give those smiling kids I saw on Thanksgiving Day the kind of society they deserve.

WTF, I've been taking that shit for years

Move over ecstasy there is a new drug in town called ‘meow meow’ and guess what? It’s friggin legal. The totally “spin you out” hallucinatory drug Mephedrone can be found on the internet under “Plant Fertiliser” . The chemical formula is only one molecule short of ecstasy but is just as deadly. On the streets it is also known as “drone”, “bubble”, and “legal high”. Durham police reported a young man had hallucinated for 18 hours while under the influence of ‘meow meow’ believing centipedes were crawling all over him. It didn’t end well with him eventually ripping off his scrotum ! The drug is banned in Sweden, Israel, Norway and Finland but freely and legally available in the UK.

Creditanstalt was an Austrian bank whose failure in May of 1931 triggered the penultimate crisis of the worst depths of the Great Depression. I wonder if Dubai World is the Global Financial Crisis’s Creditanstalt?

The poster boy for the Vancouver RE boom has now come up with a poster that may well end up becoming the ultimate ironic visual anecdote.  Vancouver condo marketer Bob Rennie explains its meaning, and ‘rentah’ comments. This from Bob Rennie, BC Business magazine, 2 Sept 2009 -

“On the exterior walls of my new offices in Chinatown, I’ve installed a 23-metre neon work of art by Britain’s Martin Creed. It reads, EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE ALRIGHT. And it will. Yes, we boomers are on the downward side of our peak earning years. Yes, we’ve experienced the biggest financial collapse in our lifetime. We will have to institute dramatic changes in how we entertain ourselves, where and how we travel, what we drive, where we live and how we ultimately pass on wealth to our children. For the enterprising business person, there are many opportunities out there to capitalize on this new reality. But for those praying for a return to yesterday, forget it. It’s gone.”

This from  rentah, in the comment section of the same article, 11 Sep 2009 18:04

“Interesting. I’d say that Rennie has COMPLETELY misread Martin Creed’s work. He’s purchased it as a giant Hallmark Card, when it’s actually intended as an ironic warning. (Perhaps everything is NOT going to be alright.) Here [follow] some more works by Creed:
Ask yourself… “Is it the artist’s intention for me to take these works literally?”
Then think about what Rennie is doing.”

Editor’s Note: This might not be as far-fetched as you think. Median income is dropping like a rock. Housing prices have historically been closely related to median income. I don’t know about the percentage drop, but another crash in real estate values seems likely. median income is still out of whack with housing prices indicating an “adjustment” of very substantial proportions is in the works. With unemployment and underemployment at record highs, it is difficult to see how this will get better any time soon.

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall From Today’s Values

November 24th, 2009 • Related • Filed Under

Filed Under: Featured Post • housing bear market • housing stats

The 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.

The index is still showing a current loss of 30% from the high in June 2006. Based upon a trend generated from the actual prices of 1987 to 1997, and generated forward in a linear projection, the index will fall a total of 62% before it reaches the trend norm.

A more comprehensive analysis of the 10-city index based upon a full 120 years of data shows current values off 36% and a comparatively modest 20% fall ahead.

Review four charts and key data based upon major real estate price indexes at “Property Price Index”.