As we went to bed I managed to get beautiful shots of Dunedin submerging into the night. The wind was just a light breeze. Then, Katka had to go to Jane (or do girls also go to John?) and my flip flop got stuck in the sliding door, which resulted in rather chilly rest of the night in the camper van.

We get up the first time at 07:30 to the van rocking heavily with wind gusts. After solving the “flip-flop” issue we still chill till 08:30. Some cold front has moved in, bringing heavy clouds, strong winds and occasional horizontal shower with it.

We drive back to Dunedine and emerse ourselves in Cadbury’s world of chocolate. The tour takes about 40min and includes melted chocolate tasting and also viewing a chocolate waterfall in one of the silos.

Content we get groceries across the street, drive around this beautiful city with steep streets and georgeous old buildings and go check out the steepest street in the world (19 degrees incline). We first drive up Baldwin St. and then I have a “wonderful” idea of running up the street. Badly out of shape I get tunnel vision 90% up and end up walking the last 20m. My lungs still hurt!

We drive back through the town, admire some of the old cathedrals and warehouses. Then we park on the main street, take a walk around, check out a few surf shops, chat with friendly staff and grab tea and ginger flavoured latte at Starbucks. In one of the surfshops we chat with the girls and ask about “free” showers and she “again” brings up the great idea of public swimming pool. We drive there, “invest” into swimming goggles and after great 1km swim and NZD 5.50 p.p. entrane fee, leave clean. Observation: who came up with the idea of separating cold and burning hot water pipes? You either burn yourself or freeze?

Though the weather has been scatchy, we decided to book the animal tour with Elm Tours so we drive to Portobello on Otago Peninsula to start the adventure.

There is a nice story developing in the $16.7 billion Kraft bid for Cadburys’. There are possibly four players in this deal to be, Cadbury, Hershey, Kraft and Ferrero.

And there are some big time names advising the players, Akeel Sachak of Rothschild, Byron Trott of BDT Capital Partners.

In my opinion Hershey does not have what it takes to out bid Kraft so Hershey would need to develop alternative strategies. Second, Cadbury & Hershey don’t mix, not yet anyway. They tried in 2007 and failed.

This is the case of the small fish swallowing the big fish as Hershey’s market capitalization is $8.3 billion, Cadbury’s $18.1 billion and Kraft’s is $39.4 billion.  So that tells us quite a few things:

1. Hershey views the Kraft’s Cadbury bid as a threat to its long term independence. That is if Hershey does not succeed it will soon be bought out by someone else.

2. Hershey’s does not have the global reach that Kraft and for that matter even Cadbury has. Hershey generates 93% of sale in North America, while Cadbury has 16%.

3. A Kraft purchase of Cadbury would turn Cadbury from friend to foe overnight, and one with a formidable distribution network in the United States.

4. Hershey’s 93% North American sales says that Hershey cannot compete overseas. Hershey needs Cadbury more than Kraft needs Cadbury. Don’t get me wrong. This is not about distribution networks even though that is important. If, like me you have lived on both sides of the Atlantic, you know American chocolates don’t cut it when compared to European chocolates. Hershey needs the branded recipe.

Hershey needs Cadbury and will pay more.

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Disclosure: I’m a capitalist too, and my musings & opinions on this blog are for informational/educational purposes and part of my efforts to learn from the mistakes of other people. Hope you do, too. These musings are not to be taken as financial advise, and are based on data that is assumed to be correct. Therefore, my opinions are subject to change without notice. This blog is not intended to either negate or advocate any persons, entity, product, services or political position.

Contact: Ben Solomon, Managing Principal, QuantumRisk

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This year, Cadbury Canada’s Bicycle Factory website has been receiving UPCs from consumers who are helping to build bikes for use in Africa.

The successful campaign has been picked up by news websites and blogs around the world.

Saloni..

13 Years. Kid. Mischievous. Loved ice-creams. Loved Cadbury. Loved Rains. Loved to Play. A typical child. And like every other child, she hated Mathematics. Her mother, Neha, was a typical mother. She wanted her child to do all things which she herself was unable to do. Neha lost her husband a year ago. In 10 years of their married life, she had seen so much happiness that the loss of her husband came to her as a disaster. Since then, she took up the charge to bring up Saloni and wanted to fulfill her every dream. Saloni was her only focus and both mother and daughter had a great time. Neha managed to get few girls to stay as Paying Guests (PG, as they say) who shared their rooms and paid something. More than the rent, Neha and Saloni actually wanted company.

But also, living in Mumbai is tough if you have got adjusted to a lifestyle and then you suddenly don’t have access to it. Saloni was a kid, but strangely, she understood. She never cried for Cadbury in the shop, never cried for Masala Corn in the mall, neither she was fond of the junk food. They were lucky that they had an apartment in Mumbai and they managed somehow. I knew Neha was searching for a job. I worked before my marriage and I am trying now. But since I had a break of nearly 10 years in my career, I am not able to get into one now. I am a Cost Accountant… Nick, Do you have any openings in your company? Neha would continue..

She wanted Saloni to become and engineer or a doctor and would keep asking me how I studied and always asked me to help Saloni in her subjects. I would politely say yes, but knew that it is not possible. Which kid would be awake at 11:30 PM at night to study Mathematics. And which Program Manager would have the luxury to return home before 11:30. Program Manager who is forcefully single.

Sunday Morning. No office. One day when I live for myself and my family. Pains of yesterday were gone. I was feeling great. I wanted to thank Neha. And I wanted to cook something for my neighbours, my only extended family in Mumbai. Saloni loved sweets. The easiest thing to cook was Custard Kheer. I was no cooking expert. But with Google around and with Mom on the phone, no one needs to be. In minutes, I was looking up the internet for recipes. Its good that the STD call tariffs have come down drastically and Internet speeds on a Wireless Datacard have shot up in India.

3 table spoons of Custard powder, ½ cup condensed milk cream, 2 table spoons of sugar…Mix up the contents…Boil Milk and pour… And lo..The custard is ready. I put in the refrigerator and am done. In 30 minutes, amazing custard is ready!

As I rang the bell and waited for Saloni to open the door, I was trying to think if I put sugar in the custard. Saloni saw me and was very happy seeing me. Bhaiyaa, Aap mere liye kuch leke aaye hain? And when she saw the custard, she was overjoyed! I loved her smile.  This is the family which saved my life yesterday and gives me a feel of home away from home. Neha came out of her room, greeted me and asked me if I have sometime today to teach Saloni. I had all the time in the day. Lol. Salonis smile faded. She brought her Maths text book and said – Uncle!! Aaj thoda sa hi padhna hai.. Aaj na meri tabiyat na .. itna jyada thik nahin hai! I was smiling. Mathematics can make me Uncle and Chocolates/Custard can make me Bhaiyaa.

17 more days in Mumbai. 17 days remaining to accept Kotler as God.

Post #12

If you shoot a cyclist in the head, how many days in jail are you looking at in North Carolina? 120 days. This is outrageous!

In Africa, a bicycle is not just a bicycle. It can be used as a school bus, a water van, and even an ambulance.  Cadbury (a chocolate company apparently) is donating 5000 bicycles to Ghana, Africa. Really cool 1 minute Youtube video.

And count on PETA to make a fuss about Thanksgiving.

In personal news: On the 30th of this month I get my first paycheck. It won’t be anything grand, but, it is a start for my savings (and better eating — hopefully).

What’s this?

Stormcastle’s favorite chocolate bar, that’s what!

Seriously… I’ll whore my blog out for some of these, LOL.

How’s that for journalistic integrity?

Christmas is coming up… so now you know what to put in my stocking, Santa!

With Christmas fast approaching and Kraft making a hostile bid to take over the iconic British chocolate brand Cadbury, I thought it would be interesting to look at how Cadbury used another icon, Santa Claus, to advertise their chocolate brand in the 1920s.

I believe this is from a decade or so before Coca Cola and Haddom Sundblom used Santa to advertise the ‘pause that refreshes’. Note how Santa’s sack has a Union Jack emblazed on it, to emphasise the British-ness of the product.

À vouloir racheter Cadbury ? L’autre jour, c’était Kraft.

Aujourd’hui, monsieur Ferrero veut balader les Finger sur son Rocher

Tant que c’est pas Eric Besson qui nous fait un doigt

by Stephanie Hanson

I have a confession to make, a confession that I am almost ashamed to make. I am an anglophile. I always think people obsessed with other countries are rather silly, after all, you should love the one you’re in unless it’s very horrible. Which our country is of course not. But we are always drawn to the exotic. For me, it’s the chocolate. English chocolate is just…so much better on a basic level. And they really have the best candy bars. Especially Cadbury. You can imagine how much I wanted to visit Willy Wonka as a child, and how much I envied Roald Dahl when I found out that he had a childhood job as a chocolate taster for Cadbury. Oh, I enjoy other traditionally English goods like clotted cream and bangers. But it’s really all about the candy. The chocolate. I think they must have better cows making the milk over there (actually English Cadbury has more milk than American Cadbury, which has wax instead).

For your basic chocolate bar, Cadbury has the Dairy Milk. It’s a classic. And it pairs well with a nice cup of English Breakfast or Assam. Something nice and malty to balance out the sweetness of the chocolate.

Then there is the Crunchie. This has to be one of the most decadent candies I have ever had the pleasure of enjoying, and I can only eat about half at a time because it’s so sweet. You see, the middle is a “honeycomb.” It’s not really, honey, but it sure tastes like it. So basically, it’s chocolate covered sugar. And what’s wrong with that? But because it is so sweet, it really needs to be paired with something on the other end of the spectrum. I like it with a nice spicy masala, something with pink peppercorns.

Then there’s the Yorkie from Nestle, which has to sell most of its bars because of the clever reverse-psychology slogan: “Not for Girls.” Apparently this was controversial, as a way of marketing to men, but I took it as ironic, and bought it happily. It’s chunky chocolate, but I did have a variety with raisins once that was lovely. It’s not much different than the Dairy Milk, but I feel like it needs a good strong tea just because of the name, so I go with an Irish Breakfast.

Go ahead. Look at the British chocolates, and just see if they look so much better than the bars in line at American grocery stores. I know where my allegiance lies in chocolate patriotism.

Stephanie publishes her own blog called The Tea Scoop. Check it out! It’s great!

Hopensato di pubblicare un interessante articolo tratto da Il sole 24 ore. Perchè credo sia importante conoscere quello che fanno i nostri clienti e cosa succede nel mondo in cui lavoriamo.

Nestlé pensa a Cadbury
Incontri privati con le banche.

22 novermbre 2009

Alla fine i tantissimi rumors potrebbero concretizzarsi. Secondo quanto riporta Bloomberg e il sito MarketWatch (del network del Wall Street Journal), Nestlè starebbe valutando l’opzione di una possibile offerta per Cadbury. Sia Bloomberg che MarketWatch vanno, com’è ovvio, con “i piedi di piombo”. Usano tutti i condizionali possibili, vista la fluidità della situazione con gli scenari che cambiano di giorno in giorno ( se non di ora in ora), ma alla fine, citando fonti competenti sull’affairedelle caramelle e del cioccolato, sottolineano che qualcosa si sta muovendo.

La Nestlé sta rivedendo le sue opzioni con le banche e potrebbe decidere di muoversi, sfidando l’offerta di Kraft (17 miliardi di dollari) che, per adesso, è stata rigettata da Cadbury in quanto ritenuta troppo bassa. Com è noto, proprio sulla scia del passo effettuato dal colosso americano delle sottilette, si era mossa Hershey e poi l’italianissima Ferrero. L’ipotesi che poteva (o potrebbe) concretizzarsi era quella di un’offerta concordata tra la società di Alba e Hershey. Tuttavia, secondo Bloomberg, la presenza nella partita di Ferrero sarebbe sempre più difficile. Non è un mistero, peraltro, la diffidenza (se non contrarietà) all’operazione da parte del fondatore del gruppo Michele Ferrero. Che si scontrebbe contro la volontà, invece, dei due figli Pietro e Giovanni convinti della necessità di fare un salto di dimensioni. Soprattutto adesso che il mondo del cioccolato si consolida sempre di più e richiede maggiori economie di scala e di scopo.

Certo, si tratta di un’operazione che richiede di sborsare molti danari. «Quanti ce ne vorranno? – si chiede Jon Cox, analista di Kepler Capital Markets- Se Nestlè vuole, le finanze per realizzare l’offerta ce le ha». Peraltro la stessa Hershey, secondo molti rumors, potrebbe essere partner nell’operazione. «Ciò che potrebbe creare qualche problema – afferma Thomas Russo, partner di Lancaster – è la possibile posizione dominante nel mercato del cioccolato. Cosa che, invece, non accadrebbe per quello del chewing gum, visto che Nestlé non possiede un business legato ai bubble gum».

"Mmmm...merger."

The American dairy corporation Kraft Foods offered the British chocolate company, Cadbury, close to $17 billon to merge in September. Cadbury doesn’t want to merge.

Hershey, another American chocolate corporation, has considered an offer of at least $17 billion.  No answer.

Hershey is not doing as well as Kraft (financially). Hershey’s market value on November 20 was an estimated $8.5 billion, which is not much compared to the value of Kraft Foods (over $40 billion).  Cadbury’s market value is the European equivalent to a little over $18 billion.

At this point, a battle with Kraft puts Hershey at a disadvantage.

Plus, Ferrero (Italy) and Nestlé (Switzerland) are thinking about making offers for Cadbury too.

Seems bittersweet right now, but we’ll see how it goes.

More as it happens, chocolate lovers!

For the New York Times article, visit 23hershey.html?th&emc=th

Stock price: p800.5

Conclusion: We think a potential Hershey bid or a Hershey-Ferrero alliance might prompt Kraft to increase its offer but it is unlikely to exceed p860 per share or $20bn ( the top end of our estimated valuation range).

Hershey and Ferrero confirmed that they are reviewing their options regarding Cadbury.

-We envisaged in a previous comment (Sept 7th) that Hershey might accept to be diluted to 51% and join in a JV in order to get a better access to international markets.
According to the FT, Hershey would pursue a $17bn bid for Cadbury topping Kraft’s $16.2bn offer.
Assuming 4x leverage and the issuance of class B stocks, we estimate that Hershey ($5bn sales) could fund $4.5bn. More funding would require the issuance of non voting shares which might be more difficult to get and the contribution of external investors.

-As to Ferrero ($9bn sales) we estimate the borrowing capacity at $6-$7bn based on zero existing debt and EBITDA margin of 19%. Our assumptions remain to be confirmed as we do not have access to financial statements. According to the FT, net debt was $3bn, which would reduce the borrowing capacity to $4bn.

-Last Cadbury balance sheet could handle $4-$5bn debt.

Consequently, we estimate total funding between $14bn and $17bn, while Kraft could afford a revised offer estimated close to $20bn.
Matching a revised offer from Kraft would probably require the financial backing of a private equity firm.
In addition, the amount of synergies should be much lower than Kraft’s estimates, given the geographic exposure of both groups.
As a result, we feel that the likelihood of offering more than 860p is low.

Based on the current stock price and assuming that Kraft would raise its offer to 860p, Cadbury offers less than 10% upside potential. Based on the low end of our range (790p), the stock looks fully priced.

[EDIT] WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE DEADLINE FOR THIS CONTEST UNTIL 12 NOON TOMORROW (TUESDAY) 24TH NOVEMBER.

Finalist will be contacted the same evening with an Invitation to The Gala Premiere of The Twilight Saga: New Moon at Lido Cinemas on Wednesday 25th November.

This extension is due to a huge interest from you out there! What are you waiting for?!!

Take part NOW in The Twilight Saga: New Moon Lookalike Contest & WIN LOADSA CASH!!!

Top prize $800 PLUS Sponsored Prizes!!!

Sponsors are Canon, Cadbury, Cadbury Gold, supported by Mediatech!

The Twilight Saga: New Moon Lookalike Competition - In Search of Singapore’s Very Own Edward, Bella and Jacob…

1. You have to be aged between: 12 years and above
2. Send in a photo of yourself looking like Edward, Bella or Jacob (with full makeup) to Twilight Singapore by 23 November 2009 (Monday), 5pm 24 November 2009 (Tuesday) 12 NOON

Please include the mandatory information: Full Name/IC Number/Contact Number/Email Address/Postal Address.

Entries without the above information will be automatically disqualified.

ATTRACTIVE PRIZES TO BE WON!
1st prize – $800 worth of cash and sponsored prizes
2nd prize – $600 worth of cash and sponsored prizes
3rd prize – $400 worth of cash and sponsored prizes

Finalists will be shortlisted and notified by 24 November 2009 (Tuesday), 12pm Evening. Finalists will be invited to the Gala Premiere on 25 November 2009 (Wednesday), 8pm when they are required to put on their full make-up, looking like the respective characters. Winner of the competition will be chosen during the Gala Premiere!

Good Luck!

WE CAN’T WAIT TO SEE SINGAPORE’S VERSION OF EDWARD, BELLA & JACOB!!!