I’m still a little skittish about my picks as I haven’t seen the turnaround yet.  I feel like the turnaround has happened but I would like to see some concrete evidence first.  Also, I’ve been playing around with my system a little so it can call fewer plays but with more accuracy.  That’s going to be my deal from now on.  I won’t play as many, but hopefully the ones I do play can be big winners.

Also, sorry I haven’t updated my record from this weekend yet. I’m not trying to hide my losses, I have just been very busy.

We have one play tonight.  Again, I will cautiously play this one but it should be sound.

UTAH +8 (vs ORLANDO)

Some books are giving 7.5 but buy the 1/2 point.  I would go through all of the stats and situational data but I’ve realized that doesn’t really help.  Whether they are 1-7 or 7-1, it all comes down to how they will play that night.  Some things cannot be ignored, such as Milwaukee being 0-4 in Indiana in the last 3 seasons and 6-25 since 1996 (which is why I’m staying away from that game tonight), but most of the time it’s a lot simpler than that. Utah had Orlando’s number last time they met a week or so ago.  Even though the Jazz have no matchup against Dwight Howard, they kept him to just 11 shots and 18 points (a low point total for him all things considered).  Utah managed to pass the ball around well as 3 guys had 20 or more points and 6 guys were in the double digits. Coming off a huge win in Charlotte, while the Magic are waiting for Jameer Nelson, I expect this game to be close.  The Magic are tough at home (10-2 straight up, 6-5 ATS), and tough when revenging a loss (7-2 straight up this year, 4-5 ATS), but I’m not calling for a Jazz win. The Jazz just need to replicate what they did last time and try to outrebound the Magic (who are just coming off of a victory where they won the rebound war 54-35 against Portland). In the last matchup the Jazz won the rebounds 46-40.  My take (at least how I envision it happening if the Jazz are going to cover) is the Jazz will be leading at some point in the 3rd quarter and then (late in the 3rd or sometime in the 4th) the Magic will start throwing down the 3’s.  I just hope the Jazz can keep up and not let them get too far away too quickly. Once the Magic get up late in the game, it’s nearly impossible to come back.

Also, I would play the Suns tonight if Barbosa was back.  It’s a perfect situation as the Cavs are coming to Phoenix to play a back-to-back road game.  But I noticed, even though Barbosa is not one of their starters, he seems to be a key to them winning. Straight up, the Suns are 12-2 when he is playing. But ever since he’s been out (since December 1st), the Suns are just 4-6.  Prior to his injury the Suns had not lost two games in a row.  Since then, they have not won two games in a row. He’s expected to return possibly on Christmas Day.

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NBA Friday Night Free pick

Milwaukee @ Cleveland

Shaq and Lebron have been a hit in Cleveland

The Cavs are at home tonight for a meeting with the Bucks. The Bucks are off back to back over time games and will not have the legs to keep up with the cavs tonight. The Cavs have this game before heading out on the road so they want to win this game tonight to grab momentum before the road trip. The Bucks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Cavaliers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Central and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 Friday games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and all of those were big wins by the Cavs. Look for more of the same tonight!

Cleveland -9.5

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Philly @ Boston

Denver @ New orleans

Kings @ T-Wolves

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There are still 3 games out there that I haven’t seen the lines for.

Although my system is picking Denver to win in New Orleans, the recent injury on Chauncey Billups is making me hold off on this play.  Especially since other stats are mixed. For example, Denver is 8-3 after a win of 10 points or more and 7-3 against poo defensive teams, they are 0-3 as a road favorite of 3 points or fewer.  Also, the Hornets are 2-0 at home when the total is between 200 and 204.5, and 8-1 in the last 3 seasons and 11-2 since 1996! But they are also 5-10 against good offensive teams and 0-5 on friday night games.  This play is just too sketchy for me.

This one, however, does look good:

SAC -2 (VS MIN)

After giving me 2 straight pushes, the Kings are ready to give me a win! They are 5-1 as a favorite, and 4-1 with a total of 210 or greater.  4-0 on Friday night and 6-0 after a non-conference game. THey are also 10-2 against losing teams and 11-3 against poor defensive teams.  Even though Minnesota is 2-0 this year as an underdog of 3 points or less, I think the Kings, who are 2-1 in Minnesota and 6-2 overall in the past 3 seasons (and currently 5-0 in the last 5 matchups), will keep their win streak over the T-Wolves going .  Minnesota is 5-8 at home this year, and 33-60 at home over the last 3 seasons.

BONUS:

Okay, after writing all that I did find one more potential play.  It’s weaker but still looking good enough to play:

MIL +10 (vs CLE)

It is only a 2-star in my rating system (if you remember, 1 and 2 stars went a combined 4-11) but that is mostly because my system hasn’t been good with Cleveland games this season (2-4).  Since the play is on the Bucks’ side (system record: 7-4 including 1-0 1-star record), I feel it is a little safer. After looking at some numbers I felt safer still.

Cleveland, 13-13 ATS this year, is just 4-8 ATS at home, and 1-3 as a home favorite of 9.5-12 points. They are also 1-3 when the total is 190-194.5, and 4-7 against losing teams.  Milwaukee, on the other hand, is 5-3 against winning teams and 5-1 when revenging a home loss (8-5 revenging any loss).  They are also 3-1 after 3 consecutive home games, and they lead the series 3-1 in Cleveland over the last 3 seasons.

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Free pick in the NBA tonight

The Pistons take on the Houston Rockets tonight at 8:00. The Rockets have had a tough schedule in fact it is so tough it has led to the complaints of the head coach and the front office. It won’t get any easier when they face off against the Pistons. The Pistons are well rested heading into this game. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central. The Pistons are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Take the Pistons and the points tonight.

Pistons +5

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A lot of people think this is a lock on the Cavs. They are still stuck in the mindset that the Thunder aren’t a good team. But at 12-9, they continue to surprise many people, inside and outside of the NBA. 12-9 isn’t impressive, but compared where they were last year (23-59), they have come a long way.

ATS this year, they are 13-5, with an 8-5 underdog record, and 7-4 at home. They are already 3-1 in December, where they excelled last year going 11-1 during the month.  When the home total is 190-194.5, they are 4-1. The Cavs are just 11-12 ATS, and 9-12 as a favorite.

In Oklahoma City, the Thunder are 2-0 ATS over the Cavs.  Shaq is still questionable with a left eye contusion.  Even if he plays he may not be 100% and may not be able to shoot well, depending on how bad it was. My guess, though, is he will only play if he is able to shoot well in practice and warm ups.  He did travel with the team.

OKC +3 (vs CLE)

OKC-CLE OVER 191

My system is calling both of these plays. Oklahoma City is 4-1 (O-U) when the total is between 190-194.5 this season, and 8-3 when playing a team with a winning record. The Cavs are mixed on the total (averaging out to about 50% this season), but the one that sticks out is their Sunday game record, where they are 6-24 (O-U) the last 3 seasons.  That’s not enough to take me off my play though.

P.S. My new NHL system is calling the Flames to beat the Avalanche, but again, don’t base anything off this, especially since I only went 4-3 yesterday in the NHL.  It still needs more time to be tested.

Probably no other team in the history of the NBA suffered with the amount of injuries that the Portland Trail Blazers has been suffering this season and yet they dressed their 9 players left and put a hell of a fight against the Cavaliers on Quick and Loans Arena where the Cavs are not as dominant as last season but are still in control of things as any other home team in the league but there’s only so much you can run and the Blazers were simply out legged by LeBron and the blues on the 4^th as Cleveland improves to 16-7 on the season.

Behind LeBron’s 33 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists, the Cavaliers got a much needed and tough win against a shorthanded Blazers team that had an 11 point lead midway through the 3rd but ran out of shots on the 4^th. James took the game over on the 3^rd when he scored 16 of his 33 and allowed the Cavaliers to take control of it. Tonight the help came from Anderson Varejão who scored 22 off the bench. It didn’t look good for the Cavs though. With a 7 point lead with 15 seconds to go, Cleveland allowed 5 points in a single trip and then got 2 free throws from Mo Williams and a stop to finally put the game away but it was close. Although Portland had no answer for LeBron’s post up game, Cleveland never dominated this game.

There are no moral victories in the NBA, they don’t count anything. What the Trail Blazers are facing right now is something that crushes any crew, not only physically but also psychologically. Without Nate McMillan, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Greg Oden and Nicholas Batum, Portland had a 7 men rotation + 4 minutes from Dante Cunningham who played because of Przybilla’s foul trouble and 7 minutes from Jarred Bayless who got a package of plays on a 3 men backcourt with Blake and Miller. Roy scored a team high 23 but needed 25 shots to accomplish it and even Juwan Howard contributed off the bench with 15 points in valuable 17 minutes which means that virtually everything that needed to happen, key contributions also from Miller, Aldridge and Webster, for the Blazers to have a chance eventually did and they still fell short on the 4^th and that’s a huge hit because the mentality of this beat up team is to hang in there against other powerhouses and go for it on clutch time but it’s not working lately and may be taking the confidence out of those guys.

Expectations were high around them before the season and nobody is stupid, we all understand what’s happening with them but if they are waiting for help, it won’t come soon. Fernandez will be out from 4 to 8 weeks, Outlaw is out with the same injury that kept Webster out the whole last season which means that his comeback is a wildcard, Batum and Oden are not expected to play this season. Coach McMillan does come back next week but he won’t influence the amount of minutes those core guys will keep playing. The only fresh blood that will come for the next month is when Andre Miller gets traded and that might take a while. All of that means that the Blazers will have to figure out a way to keep their hopes alive, finding oxygen somewhere.

Welcome back to The Rival Rundown! If you’ve always wanted to give props to your school on CC, now’s your chance! Shoot us an email explaining what’s awesome and unique about your school (or what stinks about Rival U) at rivalrundown@collegecandy.com!

Old Dominion fans, take note! This week our rivalry takes us to the fair state of Virginia, where the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech hope to take home top honors.

Quick Facts

Virginia: University of Virginia or UVA, a public research university in Charlottesville, VA with 13,000 undergraduates.  Mascot is the Cavalier (or Wahoo).
Virginia Tech: The Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, a public land grant polytech university in  Blacksburg, VA with 24,00 undergraduates. Mascot is the Hokie.

1. Commonwealth Cup / Rivalry Record

Virginia: 3 wins/ 37 wins (5 games tied)
Virginia Tech: 11 wins / 49 wins

Three credits to: No question, Virginia Tech! Good show!

2. Mascot Matchup

Virginia: Officially known as the UVA Cavaliers, for its historical significance, the ladies and gents of Virginia are also known as the Wahoos, for the school’s rallying cry (“wah-hoo-wah!”)
Virginia Tech: The Hokies are also known as the Fighting Gobblers, and are represented by a giant turkey!

Three credits to: Virginia. Amongst these multi-moniker’d rivals, “Wahoo” is just more fun to say.

3. Fun Facts

Virginia: Founded by Thomas Jefferson, UVA is the only university in the United States to be named a World Heritage Site by UNESCO.
Virginia Tech: Was twice named by Princeton Review as #1 in the Best Campus Food category. No mystery meat here!

Three credits to:  A close one…but we’ll go with Virginia Tech. Never underestimate the value of good food on campus!

4. Ass-Kicking Alumni

Virginia: Katie Couric, Tina Fey, Tiki Barber, Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy
Virginia Tech: Michael Vick, Nikki Giovanni (Professor)

Three credits to: Sorry, Virgina Tech, but Michael Vick is really not helping your case. Virginia knocks this one out of the park!

5. Acceptance Rate Agony

Virginia: 36.7%
Virginia Tech: 65.4%

Three credits to:  Absolutely Virginia.

And the diploma goes to: Virginia! Though the Hokies crush the Cavaliers in football, UVA gets a “wah-hoo-wah” in nearly everything else.

You may have already noticed I’m cutting back on the number of potential plays I give out.  One reason I did so many to start with was to try and build some credibility with my system, the other reason was simply the thrill of calling games.  Now that I have learned that more plays does not equal more money (unless you’re talking about more money lost), I am beginning to focus on the few good plays when I find them and trying to get them right.

Normally I’d be able to give you 5-6 good plays today but I’m staying away from the Sixers, due to the return of A.I., staying away from the Blazers due to injuries, and staying away from the Kings because this is a back-to-back game for them.  I also have a new rule of not playing games with double-digit spreads (which knocks out any potential play on the Hawks and the Lakers).

Anyway, here are today’s NBA picks:

HOUSTON +2.5 (vs CLEVELAND)

Not only is my system calling for the Rockets to win, but a lot of stats are indicating that as well. Cleveland has a strong stat this season of being 7-0 against other teams with a winning record, but this time they’re facing Houston, who is 8-2 as an underdog this season. Since 1996, Houston leads the matchup between these two teams 15-8, and is 9-2 at home in the same time period.  Over the last 3 seasons, Houston is 3-1, and 2-0 at home (ATS). FYI, The total has gone under in 7 of their last 10 matchups in Houston and in 14 of 22 games overall since 1996.

GS-NJ UNDER 216

First, my O/U system is 7-1 this season in calling New Jersey games, and it’s saying under for this one. Second, the Nets have gone under in 14 of their 20 games this year.  Third, the Nets have gone under in 4 of their 5 back-to-back games.  Fourth, the Nets have gone under in 9 of the 12 games they’ve been in with good offensive teams (averaging 99+ points per game). And fifth, in the matchup between these two teams, 7 of their last 11 games in New Jersey have been under, and 2 of their last 2.

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Cleveland @ Houston

Lebron James flies into Houston

The Cavs come to Houston and life is always tough when you take to the road in Texas. The Rockets know how to play at home and always step it up defensively. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference and 4-0 ATS in the last four games as a dog. The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Houston. Take the Rockets and the points.

Houston +3

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How it is calculated.  Now, onto this week’s results:

Amazing how it is starting to round into last year, isn’t it? In particular:

• The top 7 teams in the rankings this week were all second round teams a year ago.  The only missing one, Houston, is 12th.
• The Celtics create a little bit of breathing room with a very strong 4-0 trip, including solid wins in Miami, San Antonio and Oklahoma City, the latter the second half of a back to back
• With the naked eye, the Lakers still look like the best team in the league.  That said, the low road modifier shows they have had the most home friendly schedule in the league.  That will swing a little most likely.
• After some early hand wringing, the Cavaliers have cracked the Top 5.  Defense is up to where it usually is, and the three point shooting has been outstanding, giving LeBron the support he needs.  The frontcourt still needs settling, but what they have now is good enough to win a lot of games.
• Suns defense is slipping.  Their offense is still 2nd, but the 26th ranked defense won’t cut it.  The latter D’Antoni teams still had Top 10/Top half defenses – predicated by not fouling and funneling long two-pointers.  Right now the Suns lack of resistance could cause them a problem – on the other hand the home games have yet to start piling up.

Just talked to Brenda this morning. She seems to be in much higher spirits. She found that she is able to take about 2TBS of pudding without the heartburn. Hope this will help her get some more fluids in later. 2tbs seems to be all her new pouch will hold right now.  She has a checkup today with Dr. Gluck.  She plans to drive there herself so she is feeling much better. My Mom is going with her just in case.

One of her cavaliers took a running jump to her in an excited mood and rushed herself right into the sorest area of her tummy so that set her back a bit, I’m sure. OUCH!  She raises and shows cavalier king charles spaniels. If you care to check out her website, it’s here: http://www.liltails.net

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NFL Free Picks on Tap for Sunday

Tony Romo and the Cowboys take on the Giants

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NFL Free Sports Betting Pick

SF @ Seattle

If Seattle is going to make the playoffs or play a role in how the west is won they need to win this game. They have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and will be glad to be home after a long road trip. Seattle has been a betting bonanza at Qwest Field after Thanksgiving, cashing at a 7-0-1 clip. Seattle will thrive off that last win in St. Louis and take it to the 49ers in a big win at home.

Seattle -1

Here are the many reasons, in no particular order, why I think LeBron James should and will sign with the Knicks in the summer of 2010:

1. Madison Square Garden – He has said many times that Madison Square Garden is one of his most favorite places to play ball.

2. NYC needs a basketball savior – Giants won in 2007. Yankees won in 2009. Rangers won in 1994. The Knicks have not won since 1972-3, and only reached the Finals twice since then. Everyone saw how NYC treated the 1994-5 Rangers when they finally won. Imagine how the city will treat whoever gets the Knicks to the promised land.

3. The Canyon of Heroes – There is nothing like going down Broadway and the Canyon of Heroes in a ticker-tape parade, being celebrated by two million+ fans. The history of the Canyon of Heroes goes beyond sports and New York. It is a big part of all that America stands for, valor, freedom, intelligence and bravery (Eisenhower, MacArthur, Glenn, Statue of Liberty, Einstein, Olympians, Lindbergh, Earhart, Jesse Owens, Armstrong, just to name a few of the 100+ parades). No other city comes close to offering that experience. None.

4. Time to leave the nest – As much as people say he won’t leave Cleveland because he’s a hometown kid, that reason may also be why he leaves. All college kids remember having to decide between going to a state school versus going out of state. The visions and dreams of leaving the nest grow stronger as you mature. It is a natural process to want to leave the nest and prove you are capable of taking care of yourself. Many of those that were hesitant about leaving home, end up loving the experience away from home. LeBron will be 25 next summer.

5. It’s just a part-time job – People make it seem like if he leaves Ohio, he is naked and all out in the world alone. Basketball season is from October to April. He has 4 to 5 months each year to live back home with his mom and friends, if he wants. Additionally, there is so much traveling going on during the season, most players see the team city as a job location and not necessarily a family-nest location. It’s more important that the city and fans embrace you. He will be embraced like no other in NYC.

6. James Dolan – He might be one of the most incompetent owners in sports, but there is one thing that he has, money. And he’s not afraid to spend it on the Knicks. Now that the management is sound with Walsh, LeBron can come here knowing the management will do whatever it takes to surround James with whoever he wants to win it all.

7. LeBron as pseudo-GM – LeBron will have large input in which players the Knicks sign or let go during his whole contract. The Knicks whole hope is that LeBron signs with them. You think once they do, they will go against his wishes in bringing in a supporting cast? With Dolan’s money and Walsh’s management, Lebron does not have to worry about the current Knicks players being bad.

8. Don’t forget 2011 – Too much is said about how the Knicks will only be able to get one max player. No matter what the cap is and whether they can unload Curry and/or Jeffries, both contracts come off in 2011. LeBron is not signing for one year, it’s a multi-year investment.

9. Mike D’Antoni – Every player, including LeBron, loved playing for D’Antoni on the US National team. His style is like playground style – open, fast-paced and focused on athleticism – which Lebron loves. You can see how the Cavs offense slows down now that Shaq is stuck in the paint. Lebron is taking more fade-away jumpers instead of driving to the net.

10. CC Sabathia, Arod, Jeter and others – Lebron’s friends on the Yankees and Giants will simply tell him there’s no other city to be a champion in. That’s gotta be at least in his head seeing his friend enjoying the glory of being champions and beloved by the city. Not to mention Jeter winning SI’s Sportsman of the Year. If LBJ brings home the trophy in NYC, good chance he will be just that.

11. New York Yankees - LeBron is a big Yankees fan. Yankees will be contenders for the foreseeable future. If he sticks around in the offseason, he can enjoy many games in the new stadium and watch his buddy Sabathia’s pitch to his heart’s content. Not to mention the playoffs.

12. Giants and Rangers – Don’t know if LeBron is a big football or hockey fan, but it’s always nicer to be in a city where all the sports teams are contending and supported by the city. The Browns have been a mess for a long time. The Indians seem to be in constant rebuilding mode, having let Sabathia and Cliff Lee go. Not to mention that the Cavaliers were nothing for many years before James.

11. Charity – Yes, it’s true that charity can be done in any city, but charity done in a big media city like NYC just means more exposure and publicity for it. Look at Jeter’s Turn2 Foundation or Joe Torre’s Safe at Home foundation which he has not moved to L.A. and he still flies back to every year.

12. NYC media – Which brings us to the media. James loves the spotlight. He is accomodating to the media. Seriously, what athlete entertains the hypothetical idea of going to another city for so long before finally saying no more questions until after the season? He understands being a true superstar means winning over the local media. Winning over the crazy media of NYC is another challenge I think he finds exciting.

13. Local marketing – People talk about how going to NYC will not make him a bigger global icon. They talk about how he is already as big as he can get in the world. They talk about how he is second in China and fourth in Europe in jersey sales. One thing they are all forgetting is the local marketing of LeBron. Yes, he is already an icon in NYC with large billboards, but he is seen as an icon like Jordan, but not an icon they can call their own. Big big difference. Imagine the marketing prospects of that of a metropolitan area of 18 million versus Cleveland or even Miami. Only Los Angeles, Chicago and possibly Boston can compete with that. This is why Nike wants him in NYC, the added local marketing revenue is something he can not get anywhere else.

14. Basketball legends reside in Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and New York – The stars from the big cities still command the most attention in basketball history.

15. It’s 5 players per team, not 9 or 22 – Unlike baseball or football where one player cannot take over a game day in and day out, in basketball, it can happen. Even a roster of 12 is much easier to improve than 25 in baseball or 53 in football. The Cavaliers is a perfect example. They were 17-65 the year before James was drafted. James single-handedly generated an 18-win improvement his first season, 35-47. What James wants to see is cap flexibility in the first and second years he is there, and also a willingness to spend by the owner. Knicks fit both.

16. This year’s Knicks record doesn’t matter as much as people make it out to be – People keep focusing on that LeBron says he wants to play on a winner. With the Knicks mired in the basement of the league, people wonder why LeBron will want to go to a loser team. Umm, most of the players are not going to be on the team next year. Even LeBron knows that the Knicks record is not reflective of the potential of the team next year. The key is seeing the players that are in the Knick’s long term plans play hard and improve. This is why it’s important D’Antoni plays the young core like Gallinari, Douglas, Hill, Lee, Robinson, and Chandler. (Umm, ok, let’s leave KryptoNate out of it)

17. LeBron’s personal attention to Gallinari and Robinson – I know LeBron occasionally will whisper advice to the young players on several teams, but he has done it very obviously with Nate Robinson last year and with Gallinari this year right after the only Cavs visit to MSG. Why bother? He knows it will only add fuel to the fire.

18. LeBron’s quotes about NYC and MSG – LeBron has given so many positive quotes about playing in MSG and NYC. Seriously, if I was a Cavs fan I’d be peeved that he speaks so highly of another city that way. Either he is a big tease or there is something there…

19. If it’s only about money, how come he hasn’t signed an extension already – People talk about how the Knicks can’t offer him more money than the hometown Cavs and so they are not as attractive. If that is the case, why hasn’t he signed a max extension with the Cavs by now? It is apparent that LeBron, at a minimum, is excited by the possibilities of free agency. This can only help the Knicks.

“Let’s get this clear: I said the max contract doesn’t mean more than winning,” James said. “I didn’t say, ‘I don’t need a max contract’ or ‘I’m not going to get a max contract.’ All I’m saying is that winning is more important to me than money at the end of the day.”

-Lebron

Free Sports Betting Picks for Championship Football Saturday!

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Championship Saturday College Football Picks:
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SEC:Florida Vs Alabama
ACC:GT Vs Clemson
Big12: Texas Vs Nebraska
Big East: Cincy Vs Pitt

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Free NCAA Football Sports Betting Pick for Saturday

West Virginia @ Rutgers

This one has classic game written all over it. This West Virginia team is off a huge win against Pittsburgh and now will hit the road for some letdown. Rutgers has covered four of the last six meetings, with the under cashing in three of the previous four. West Virginia enters on a bad ATS run, dropping four of its previous six games versus the number. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five with the ‘under’ winning out in four of their most recent six games. Look for more of the same this week as Rutgers gets the win over the mountaineers. The sure tell sign is Rutgers an unranked team favored over a ranked team. Drop the small number in this Big East tilit.

Rutgers -2

Sorry if I sound a little bitter today.  I missed an opportunity by 2 minutes to get a really big call and missed out on a huge win.  My picks from yesterday weren’t much to write home about either.  I was happy with my Texas Tech pick (even though they beat my Huskies), I called the Jets winning straight up, but I missed the total on the Celtics-Spurs game, only went 3-3 in the NHL games, and an unbelievable 0-3 on NHL o/u’s. What’s more, I withheld a 7pt teaser for all three NBA games from yesterday because I wasn’t confident in it.  Turns out that would have been a winner. There’s that expression, “you win some, you lose some,” but you don’t win anything if you don’t play the ones you win!

Anyway, I’m tired and not in the mood to organize this how I usually do so I’m just going to throw the teams out there:

NBA STRAIGHT UP PICKS:

ATLANTA

CLEVELAND

DALLAS

UTAH

LA LAKERS

NEW ORLEANS

NBA ATS PICKS (PICK 3 FOR A 7PT TEASER):

NEW JERSEY +12 (BUY 7)

CLEVELAND -5 (BUY 7)

DALLAS -1 (BUY 4.5)

MILWAUKEE +10 (BUY 5.5)

UTAH -5 (BUY 3.5)

NO -8 (BUY 2.5)

NBA O/U:

CHARLOTTE-NEW JERSEY OVER 181

INDIANA-UTAH UNDER 210

NCAAB:

N. COLORADO (0) (V MONTANA STATE)

I locked in this one last night with N. Colorado at +1.  You could be safe and buy the point but I see them winning outright so buying in at 0 should be fine too.  This is a strong pick.  NC should be favored here.

NHL:

CHICAGO

NEW JERSEY

If you’re only going to take one of these NHL games, take New Jersey.  That’s as close of a lock as you’re going to get. Not only are the Devils a heavy favorite on paper, but they’re 9-1 in this matchup against Tampa Bay.

Thursday Night Free Sports Betting Picks

Thursday Night is here and full of great sports as the NBA, NFL, college basketball and the “Civil War” in college football happens tonight!

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Thursday Night NFL Free Pick:
Ny Jets @ Buffalo

The Jets and Bills play in Canada on Thursday Night Football

The Jets have been up and down all year so there is no way to tell what kind of Jets team you are going to get week in and week out. The Jets win a game against a lousy Carolina team and now they get the nod to be road favorites against Buffalo. This game is on national TV which is huge for the Bills because the crowd will be loud and proud of the Bills. Having the game in Canada only makes it all that much louder and special for this Bills team. The Jets will have their best corner on TO but in reality Fitzpatrick loves to throw it to Lee Evans. The Jets have come up short in six of their last seven as favorites of less than 9 points with revenge. On the other hand, the Bills are 5-0 versus a division foe with revenge off a SU win as underdogs. Buffalo has come away with the cash in nine of the last dozen series duels. Take the Bills plus the points.

Bills +3.5

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Continuing my year-end assessment of ACC football, let’s have a look at how each of the teams in the Coastal Division.

DUKE (C) – At the beginning of November, the Blue Devils still had an opportunity to finish out with a winning season and possible bowl bid.  Both of those dreams evaporated as the month dragged on courtesy of a four-game losing streak.  Still, they’ve accomplished a lot over the season and have something to work with during the offseason.  Thad Lewis ends his college career as the most prolific passer in Duke history, so whoever takes his place next season has some big shoes to fill.

GEORGIA TECH (A) – The powerful triple option has carried the Yellowjackets well to their second ACC Championship game.  It’s the reason why five of their players on the offensive line made All-ACC First Team.  The defense remains suspect, which was evident early on during last week’s lsot to rival Georgia.

MIAMI (A-) – The ‘Canes managed to regain some of their swagger this season by getting a winning record against other ACC schools and beating all of their non-conference opponents for the first time in four years.  Despite struggling a bit down the stretch with losses to Clemson and UNC, the defense really turned it up a notch in their win over South Florida last week.  While this season might not compare to those championship-caliber campaigns (try to say that three times fast) of the past, it is evident that Randy Shannon is helping push this program in the right direction once again

NORTH CAROLINA (B-) – The Heels improved their offensive output following a midseason slump to pull off a four-game winning streak before losing to rival NC State for the third year in a row.  Still, they managed to hold their own against both Miami and Virginia Tech, while giving Boston College their only home loss of the season.  And their defense remain solid throughout the stretch as well.

VIRGINIA (F) – Well, it is no secret why Al Groh was told to hit the bricks following a disastrous loss to rival Virginia Tech.  Despite their unexpected three-game win streak, which included a win over UNC, at the midpoint, the Hoos folded quicker than Jon & Kate’s marriage by faltering the rest of the way.  Looks like the administration has a huge mess to clean up as they look for Groh’s potential replacement.

VIRGINIA TECH (B) – The Hokies benefited greatly during November by peeling off a four-game win streak to end the season.  The offense put up some impressive numbers in the air courtesy of QB Tyrod Taylor and on the ground thanks to RB Ryan Williams’ impressive stats.  The defense hasn’t done quite as well against the run, though, which might explain why this squad may be a little off compared to previous seasons.

For what it’s worth, the Coastal Division has proved to be the stronger of the two divisions.  Aside from Virginia, all the other teams remained fairly competitive and had at least a shot at possibly leading the division at one point or another.  Even so, this was a scenario where only the strong managed to survive and advance.

Dear Lebron

I am writing this letter as an avid fan and frequent viewer. I know you are probably awash in advice and suggestions regarding your future, but I would just to like to throw my two cents in. I apologize in advance for the length of my two cents, but I want to convey just how much I have your interests at heart. Below I have assembled a rank order list of the teams I think you should consider as you come upon the sure to be crazy time of your free agency. I am no financial expert, but I am sure you are up to your elbows in those already. I am not particularly crazy about you, which is not to say that I don’t admire your skill. I just like great basketball, and I think if you were to choose one of the top five teams on my list, basketball fans would benefit…and so would you.

 Worst Ten (starting with the Worst)— Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Bobcats, Thunder, Bucks, 76ers, Kings, Pacers, Raptors, Nets

 I don’t feel these teams require much explanation. These teams represent markets that are too small for your excellence, or personnel issues that won’t be resolved in your prime. Or they just aren’t that cool. I want you to look badass in your new uniform Lebron, and nothing about a Bucks uniform screams badass.

 Here’s what I will say. The Kings have the promising guard Evans, but do you really want to bet your future on his timely maturation. The Raptors are a decent squad, but you might clash with Bosh, and let’s be honest Bron, you don’t really seem like someone who would dig the Toronto scene. Please correct me if I am wrong.

 The Thunder are also promising to a certain extent, but they seem to be focusing on developing a Kevin Durant centered squad that might be relevant five or six years down the road. Do you want to wait that long, and deal with potential Durant divaism?…I didn’t think so.

 Next Worse (or Best) Ten—- Pistons, Warriors, Trail Blazers, Jazz, Hawks, Clippers, Rockets, Nuggets, Spurs, Wizards

 The Pistons are definitely not hip enough for you with their crippled economy. You would be fun on the Warriors, but are ready for Maggette, and the instability that will come with Nelly’s imminent retirement. You might kick ass on the Blazers, but just imagine yourself surrounded by dudes in Lumberjack shirts, while Greg Oden bitches at you for not coming to the Buckeyes. Plus you might hurt Brandon Roy’ feelings.

 The Jazz would be an excellent choice for you, if they weren’t located in Utah. Nothing wrong with Utah (I’m talking to you Utah residents) but it just doesn’t flow that well: “Lebron was spotted in downtown Salt Lake City today….” The Hawks are stacked and the Clippers are historically hexed. Speaking of hexes, do you really want to put yourself in the evil voodoo circle that surrounds Yao and T Mac? Better let that witch doctor’s doing wear off before you make a trip to Houston.

 Denver isn’t a terrible scene, nor is San Antonio, but the character clashes are imminent. You don’t smoke enough weed to hang out with Melo (sorry Melo, low blow) and Tony Parker is way too French. You would punch out Chris “Birdman” Anderson or Manu Ginobli within a week of being on the team. You know you would. The two innocent casualties are Billups and Duncan. You would be spectacular with either one of them.

 The Wizards is an interesting choice. You would be with Gil and Jamison, and as long as you avoided Alpha Dog issues, Washington might be fun to watch…but you aren’t Daniel Radcliffe, and I would hate to see you typecast as a Wizard.

 Five Honorable Mentions—Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Suns, and Knicks

 Let’s just get it out of the way. Kobe + Lebron = Disaster waiting to happen. You threaten everything egocentric about Kobe. He would be playing against you and the Lakers’ opponent. The Celtics are already a tight-nit group, and you would feel like crap if you broke up their March Madness dynamic. The Bulls aren’t bad, but I have two strong words for you: Joakim Noah—interpret them as you will.

 Man would it be fun to watch you and Nash together, but he doesn’t have long. You and Amare might clash. The PHX scene is cool, but not the coolest.

 The Knicks shouldn’t even be this high, but their open lust for you is just sickening enough to vault them. They may do some ridiculous shit just to get you on the roster, and the Jay-Z/ Lebron parties would be off the hook. But let me just say this one thing: right now, the Knicks absolutely suck. They are horrible to watch, and if they ruined your career, I would hate them more than I hated them when John Starks was playing. And I really hated John Starks

 Top Five

 Mavericks- I know, I know…Dirk is kind of a douche. But Cuban would fawn over you like a psychotic mother, and Dirk would adjust just to try and remain relevant to his beloved Mahk. It’s a fairly big market, the Texas themed nicknames for you would be endless, and you might get a few years with Kidd if you hurry.

 Cavaliers—- Stay or don’t. I know your ties, but you will just have to decide for yourself on this one….You know Cleveland way better than me.

 Heat— If you and D Wade could get along, and Michael Beasley was comfortable being third fiddle, a Miami squad with you, would be terrifying.  You would look super sweet in a Heat uniform, and you know you would blow up Miami like Crockett and Tubbs…Pretty women, great weather….good choice

 Hornets— Something about you and New Orleans just clicks Bron. You would be an excellent Hornet. And you and Chris Paul might completely reinvent the game of basketball…you are both that good…I know they lack a superstar big man, but you and Nawlans could be special. Imagine the signs: “Geaux Lebron.” “King of Mardi Gras”…yes, it would be sensational…Had it not been for the big man issue, this would have been my number one choice.

 Magic—- Awesome location: check…unbelievable supporting cast/ realistic title contenders: check…..other potential superstars hitting their prime with you, simultaneously: check….Imagine this starting lineup: Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and….and….well, it doesn’t really matter who the other two are. The Magic are going to have to deal contracts anyway, so grab a couple of hobos of the street and through a jersey on them….. the Trio of James, Howard and Nelson would haunt the Eastern  conference for nearly a decade. Throw five decent role players into the mix, and we may be talking dynasty. But what separates Orlando is the lack of an Alpha dog issue: Imagine you, Nelson and Howard are canines….Nelson is a little guy, like a Jack Russell terrier, high energy….You are a Pit Bull, bad ass, killer, unshakable, fearless…Howard is a Great Dane- bad ass in his own respect, but certainly not someone who is going toe to toe with a Pit Bull for top dog status…If Howard was  a Rottweiler like Shaq, or a tough ass German Shepard like Duncan, it might be a different story. But Dwight Howard is more happy-go-lucky then Dick Van Dyke in Mary Poppins. He will be ecstatic to play Robin to your Batman…he might even get better.

 The only problem is it will never happen. I know I said I was no financial expert, but this one is just too far fetched.

 Everyone wants to tell you what’s best for you, but no matter where you are, you are going to impact the game positively….so just take a few weeks when the season ends, call Melo and see if he has a blunt to spare (two in one article…I understand if you want to fight me Melo…it will be an honor) and think about the best all-around place for you. The one favor I might ask is that you don’t drag it out….within a month of the season ending, call me up, and I will organize a killer event where you can rip off your top shirt to reveal your team of choice on the undershirt….think Sting choosing which faction of the NWA he will shack up with.

Godspeed Great Emperor of Hoops

I haven’t been doing as well as have hoped recently so I’m going to be a bit more cautious, but I still have faith in this system so we’ll keep going with it.

I wish I told you guys about the North Carolina-Michigan State game last night because I saw that coming from 3000 miles away.  I didn’t want to post it though because it was based almost entirely on intuition.

Since I didn’t tell you about that one when I should, I must alert you of this game:

WASH. ST. vs GONZAGA (no SU play), WSU +12.5

I would consider this a lock. I’m not even giving you my straight up pick because the Cougars have a good chance of beating the the ‘Zags.  WSU isn’t too far from Spokane so they’ll travel well, and WSU has a 6-0 record after winning the Alaska Tournament.  What’s more, their new coach is the former Portland State coach who upset the Bulldogs last year in Spokane 77-70.  Mark Few won’t be caught off guard this time and will be much better prepared, which is why I’m not calling for the full-on upset.  But with a better team under his wing, it will definitely be a fight.

Now for my NBA matchups:

DAL vs NJ, DAL -7, o-188.5

Some say this is a “trap.” What do I say to that?  I say Dallas is obviously the better team and capable of winning by 18, so that’s who I’m going to play.  It’s true that New Jersey has to win a game at some point, and the Timberwolves game vs. Denver and the Knicks game vs the Suns may cause some concern, but I just don’t see an 0-17 team beating a 13-5 team.  Better luck on Friday against the Bobcats, New Jersey.

OKC vs PHI, OKC -6 (no o/u play)

This one makes me more nervous than the Dallas game for two reasons.  First, Philadelphia is on a 7-game losing streak.  Second, the Thunder are playing the Celtics on Friday.  Just like in last nights matchup between the Knicks and Suns, the 76ers seem to have more to fight for as OKC may just be looking ahead and get caught off guard. That being said, I definitely wouldn’t play against the Thunder, just like I would have never played against the Suns last night no matter what I foresaw.  If anything I just wouldn’t play this game.  But seeing as they have one day of rest before their home game against Boston, they may be smart enough to know not to overlook this team.  Historically OKC is 1-3 vs the 76ers, but that’s because the Thunder used to suck and the Sixers used to be good.  OKC may see this as an opportunity to better their record against an historically good team.

NY vs ORL, ORL -8 (buy 5pts), (no o/u play)

I decided instead of telling you what teaser to do, I’ll tell you how many points you need and decide if you want to use the team in a teaser or not.  I really like this one because the Knicks spent everything on the Suns last night.  It may have been a different story if they played another game at home due to momentum but I think traveling to a visiting crowd will take any momentum they had away.  The Knicks may try to run with it early again but the Magic is a good enough team defensively to stop that from happening. It may even be safe to take this at -13 but I’m obeying my system just to be safe.

TOR v ATL, TOR +16 (buy 7pts), o-213.5

Toronto is better than their 7-12 record indicates.  If I didn’t have this system I’d probably take the Raptors as +9.  That may not be a wise decision but I think +16 is a good play. My system is indicating +14 is fine but since the Raptors are on no rest I’m giving them 2 more points for that.  The Hawks are winding down after a hot start, but Toronto has given up an average of 109 points per game, including 100+ points in their last 10 games.  I foresee a 115-105 win by Atlanta.

PHO vs CLE, PHO +11 (buy 4pts), (no o/u play)

Suns are looking to get back some respect they lost yesterday at Madison Square Gardens. With Barbosa out, no rest, and a huge loss to the Knicks, a lot of people are going with Cleveland.  However, I don’t see Barbosa as a game-changer for the Suns, and their loss to the Knicks was a blessing in disguise.  It means they were focusing on this matchup here.  By the looks of it they were focusing very hard, and thus, should be ready.  My system is putting it at +9 for the Suns but I’m giving them a 2pt “injury and no rest” cushion.

IND vs SAC, SAC +1.5 (buy 4pts), (no o/u play)

Sacramento is looking to get their 4th straight home win, while the Pacers have dropped two in a row.  The Kings have great depth with their point guards, and the Pacers are rumored to be switching up their lineup tonight.  I never like hearing about a lineup switch, at least not when they are the underdog.  Usually you see minimal improvement at best on the first night of a lineup switch but big improvements come later once the team starts flowing together.

NHL:

BOS (vs TB)

NJ (vs VAN)

#1 – Los Angeles Lakers

THE best team in the NBA offensively.

#2 – Phoenix Suns

They got back from where they used to be three years ago. We should expect this show to continue throughout the regular season but on the playoffs they will face the same problems that always broke their heart.

#3 – Cleveland Cavaliers

Shaq returned and they lost a game to Charlotte. I wonder if there is a connection there.

#4 – Orlando Magic

With Rashard Lewis back to game shape, they are such a tough team to defend. The Hawks have played the most consistent basketball on the league and saw a decent lead disappear on the second half of Thursday’s game. As Carter starts to fit into the system, they are as dangerous as last year.

#5 – Atlanta Hawks

The loss to Orlando exposed a couple of issues. Their outside defense is OK but they don’t have anybody able to stop an inside presence like Dwight Howard.

#6 – Denver Nuggets

Carmelo is taking to the next level. If that continues, behind him, they could go further than we think.

#7 – Boston Celtics

As the season progresses, they start to look older and older.

#8 – Houston Rockets

T-Mac is almost back. I hope he doesn’t screw up the good chemistry the team has so far.

#9 – Portland Trail Blazers

With Outlaw gone for a while, maybe it’s time to trade Miller and get somebody to provide the matchup issues that Travis brings up.

#10 – Dallas Mavericks

The loss to Golden State was unforgivable. On a game when Dirk Nowitzki scores 28 and Jason Terry scores 21, the Mavericks have to win which they didn’t against the Warriors and brings up doubts about the ability to score from the rest of the roster.

#11 – Utah Jazz

If you watch them play with everybody healthy, you get amazed how they click together. They are way more talented than 9-7.

#12 – Oklahoma City Thunder

Sam Presti was right. James Harden is the perfect fit for that team because he provides an offense off the bench that fits with Durant, Green and Westbrook, also Thabo Sefalosha does deserve the two year deal because he’s an awesome defender.

#13 – San Antonio Spurs

They are slowly becoming who we thought they would be at this point of the season.

#14 – Toronto Raptors

They are becoming a one way team.

#15 – Miami Heat

They have such a tough time generating offense when Dwayne Wade is not involved and that is what will kill them again this season.

#16 – Milwaukee Bucks

The Jenningsmania is down a little bit, the Rookie is back to Earth and we’ve seen what they really have. No playoff material.

#17 – Chicago Bulls

They are always bad on the circus trip.

#18 – Sacramento Kings

They won 50% of their games. It’s unbelievable. Are Tyreke Evans and Omir Caspi that good of an influence, on and off the court?

#19 – Detroit Pistons

125 year old Ben Wallace has been superb working on the boards and has been their best player throughout the month. That indicates how bad they have been. It should be mentioned that losing Prince, Hamilton, Gordon and now Villanueva is a beating that no team can recover from.

#20 –Los Angeles Clippers

They are slowly becoming who we thought they would be at this point of the season.

#21 – Golden State Warriors

Without Don Nelson, they are dedicated, they fight and they have been successful lately. I wonder if there is a connection there.

P.S: Anthony Morrow is a must watch. He’s unbelievable shooting the ball.

#22 – New Orleans Hornets

No CP3, do they still exist?

#23 – Charlotte Bobcats

Stephen Jackson did made the offense better however the win streak is all about Gerard Wallace. He is back playing the way he did last year on both offense and defense, not a playoff team though.

#24 – Indiana Pacers

With Dunleavy Jr. back we should expect them to make their run to the playoffs now.

#25 – Washington Wizards

They should be better than 5-10.

#26 – Memphis Grizzlies

They can’t translate talent into wins.

#27 – Philadelphia 76ers

Allen Iverson doesn’t play defense, so I don’t see how signing him will fix the many problems they have.

#28 – Minnesota Timberwolves

2-15. they are who we thought they were.

#29 – New York Knicks

When does the rebuilding process begin?

#30 –New Jersey Nets

They fired Lawrence Frank whom we all know wasn’t the problem, that being said, they are on pace for an NBA record for futility. It’s a throwaway season for them anyway.

Check More at: MVN

Power Rankings IV: http://basketballoutsider.wordpress.com/2009/11/22/power-rankings-iv/