a black swan

“A Black Swan … is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.

Second, it carries an extreme impact.

Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

– Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, in the New York Times

M-PESA: the Black Swan of Mobile Money?

Lately I have wondered whether the rise and stunning success of M-PESA is a Black Swan. M-PESA, a mobile money transfer service developed by/for Safaricom of Kenya, was launched in 2007 and has seen staggering growth. Much has been written about M-PESA and equivalent services worldwide (a search for M-PESA at CGAP yields a treasure-trove of articles). None of the launched services appear to rival M-PESA in growth, even in countries with similar target demographics (Tanzania, next-door to Kenya, isn’t doing so well with M-PESA).

Let Sleeping Dogs Lie

While there doubtless are many factors explaning the M-PESA phenomenon in Kenya, the implicit expectation always seems to be that it is just a matter of time before a similar service somewhere replicates M-PESA’s success in Kenya.

I’m not so sure anymore. Here’s why.

With M-PESA’s success in mind, and its implications for a country’s financial institutions, regulators (hardly known to be trend-setters) are unlikely to approve a service with as much leeway as Safaricom had with M-PESA.

Being the first to market what was essentially an outlier, Safaricom in effect escaped the regulators’ scrutiny in the early stages of M-PESA. Infact, once M-PESA’s success came to the attention of Kenya’s banking community and to the Central Bank, they tried regulating M-PESA in a way that would have, at the very least, hampered its growth. Here’s an illuminating quote from Kenya’s Daily Nation:

Bankers are up in arms over the revolutionary innovation. They have complained that cellphone companies are operating bank accounts outside of any regulations.

“Money transfer on the cellphone is a great idea,” John Wanyela, an executive director of the Kenya Bankers Association, told the Sunday Nation.

“But you do not allow innovation to outsmart regulation….[It] has broadened access to the unbanked, especially those in rural areas. We can’t do what they (mobile phone service providers) do. All we are asking for is a level playing ground.”

Banks have put the Central Bank of Kenya on the spot, demanding to know what laws allow telecommunication companies to offer money services, saying Zain and Safaricom are invading their domain without much regulation, while they continue to operate under the stringent rules of the Banking Act.

The appropriateness of the regulation isn’t my focus in this post, rather it is the effect of the regulation (appropriate or not) on the growth of M-PESA and similar services.

It is unlikely, so it appears at this moment, that regulators in other countries would give any company such leeway. It is also unlikely that financial institutions, with a lot to loose from an M-PESA clone, would sit tight and hope for the best. What is more likely is that constraints, whether the result of banking-industry lobbying or well-conceived government policy, will be placed on any such services.

MTN’s Mobile Money in Ghana

The latest launch of a mobile money service in Africa, in this case Ghana, bears out my theory (Appfrica has more details). The MTN service, which has seen slow uptake, seems hamstrung by rules and regulations forced on it by banks and regulators in Ghana.

From the Appfrica article, MTN’s Mobile Money seems to burden merchants and customers in ways that Safaricom’s M-PESA does not. With MTN’s system:

• customers need ID to perform *any* transaction
• merchants are required to have a specific handset for customer registration (something Kenya’s Zain (then known as Celtel) tried and failed with Sokotele, its earlier attempt at mobile money (Zap is Zain’s current money transfer service).
• customers have to sign for every transaction
• merchants need a bank account from participating banks
• the growth of the money-transfer network depends on banks expanding and accepting more merchants

Part of the reason for M-PESA’s runaway success has been its relative simplicity and lack of constraints, from the merchant/customer perspective. Fraud levels are somehow, and curiously, kept to a “manageable” level (if the lack of public outcry from Kenyans is anything to go by).

White Swans Galore

Sadly, it appears that M-PESA was an anomaly that won’t be replicated elsewhere anytime soon.

M-PESA succeeded, it appears, largely because there was no precedent, and hence little legislation standing in the way.

Perhaps regulators ought to factor this into their deliberations.

This week, Vivendi, the French media conglomerate, has reportedly put in an offer to acquire Zain’s African mobile operations. Zain acquired the businesses in 2005 via the US$3.4 billion acquisition of Celtel. However, the firm is now reportedly looking at selling the networks, which are valued at as much as US$12 billion. For those who need to know whom are we talking about, Vivendi is the joint-owner (with Vodafone) of SFR (France’s second-largest mobile operator); is the company that controls Morocco’s Maroc Telecom; is an international player which has numerous stakes in other African countries such as Mauritania (Mauritel), Burkina Faso (Onatel) and Gabon (Gabon Telecom).

A sale of Zain’s African networks would be a surprising move as the operator has only recently completed rebranding the networks following the Celtel acquisition. There would be some countries that would “suffer” from this sale, such as Zain Nigeria that would have to be rebranded again despite having changed names several times in recent years, from Econet to Vodacom, then V-mobile, then Celtel and finally to Zain.

A separate report by Money Biz notes that Zain’s African businesses account for 16 of the group’s 23 markets and around 65 percent of the group’s customers. However, Africa only contributed 10 percent of group profit last year, and suffered a net loss in the first quarter. So, is it accurate to value it in US$12 billion?

Zain Africa has definitively outperformed in the last 4 years. There was a dramatic jump in net income in 2006 – the year where the full impact from the Celtel acquisition was felt. From then, revenues have been growing rapidly thanks to the new acquisitions and the high take up of mobile services. It is true that the company has not been able to maintain profitability, mainly due to:

1. Adding less profitable businesses to its portfolio (lower ARPU or startup phase).
2. Costs related with integration and improving efficiencies.
3. Forex losses.

Having said this, Zain is one of the few operators in Africa & ME where growth is financed in larger proportion by equity than debt – for every dollar borrowed from the bank, shareholders put 1.13 $. Debt represents as of today a 37% of the funding needed for the expansion of the last five years whilst shareholders equity supports 42%.

The Group has therefore a healthy EBITDA level despite the negative impacts of new deployments and currency issues in certain countries such as Madagascar, DRC and Sierra Leone that, for example, have experienced issues with local currencies. However the main issues that can affect the valuation are:

1. With the exception of Nigeria and Sudan, the subsidiaries in Africa have small individual subscriber bases. Revenues will come once the penetration levels reach the forecasted penetrations, but this will not be in the short / mid term.
2. Growth through the acquisition of existing smaller operations in Africa presented the complication of integrating systems and processes since there are no existing quality standards, therefore increasing costs and reducing profitability.
3. The regional concentrations of the operations portfolio have increased the exposure in current downturn affecting the African region. In our opinion, group’s expectations have been delayed some years.
4. Certain African operations carry some inherent risk due to historical social and political unstableness that might affect Zain’s performance in the future, as it’s more and more complex to homogenize the business culture across regions.

Please find next our Zain’s profile assessment. It gives some additional economic data to understand the rational behind a potential valuation. As written before in this blog, I’m a firm believer of African’s opportunity. But 12 billion dollars is a, let’s say, “non-minor” figure.

If I were Dr. Saad Al Barrak I’d invest less than a minute to accept the offer – it is a no-brainer for me. I believe in Zain’s Africa potential in the long term but we’ll need a long time to get the same consolidated value coming from the operations. He has 12 billion reasons to turn around the repeatedly group’s statement of becoming a top ten global mobile operator by 2011, an ambition that is unlikely to be achieved if it were to sell off its African businesses.

Good luck in any case to both seller and buyer but special congratulations to Chris Gabriel and his executives either at a group and operation levels, real architects of this record valuation.

Enjoy the reading.

Best, CVA

Selon plusieurs sources, une cession de la branche Afrique de Zain serait imminent. Nouvelle pour la moins attendue, n’est ce pas? Même pas un an après le fameux rebranding [réussi] des opérations africaines du groupe koweïtien. Et l’acquéreur serait un Français du nom de … Vivendi. Orange a également été cité mais le nombre de recoupements entre les deux opérateurs dans nombre de pays Africains auraient dissuadé cette “union”!

Vivendi veut entrer en force sur le marché du mobile Africain!

On se demande bien ce qui a pu motiver cette décision de Zain! Pourtant, il n y a pas si longtemps, Dr Saad Al Barrak (CEO de Zain Group) ne manquait jamais de parler de son ambitieux projet d’être parmi “les 10 meilleures sociétés de télécommunications mobiles au monde d’ici 2011“.

A-t-il été trop gourmand? Est-il contraint par la crise? Où sont passés les pétrodollars?

Le groupe croulerait, en effet sous une dette énorme suite à ses acquisitions tous azimuts durant ces dernières années. Incapable d’assumer tout seul ses engagements, le groupe aurait sollicité l’appui financier d’un partenaire qui devait rester minoritaire dans le capital. Cependant, le groupe Français Vivendi, ne souhaitant pas joué les seconds rôles, aurait proposé de reprendre toutes les opérations Afrique du groupe.

Le concepteur du OneNetwork s'en ira-t-il?

Zain Afrique (Celtel) va-t-il retourner en Europe? Wait and see…
Par ailleurs, la situation serait si critique que le groupe se serait declaré prêt à envisager des alternatives avec d’autres opérateurs Européens et même Chinois au cas où les discussions avec le Français n’aboutiraient pas!

Considérons maintenant l’éventualité où les Arabes passent effectivement l’opérateur aux Français. Il en découlera des situations assez complexes dans certains pays comme le Burkina ou le Gabon.

En effet, Maroc Telecom, actionnaire majoritaire des opérateurs historiques (fixe et mobile) de ces 2 pays, appartient à hauteur de 53% au groupe Vivendi. Qui contrôlerait du coup, des opérations concurrentes dans un même pays. La situation pourrait être pire si l’acquisition se fait par délégation à Maroc Telecom. France Telecom (Orange) nous y a habitué avec la Sonatel (Sénégal) dans les opérations Malienne et Guinéennes (Conakry et Bissau), etc…

Dans ce genre de situation, il est impensable que les 2 filiales puissent exister l’une à côté de l’autre! Que fait-on donc? Avis aux spécialistes! L’autorité de régulation (ARTEL) reprend une des licences! Hypothèse la plus vraisemblable, je me doute bien!

Quand j’y pense: une fusion entre Zain (1ere en part de marché) et Telmob (2e) serait un coup très dur pour Telecel Faso (3e)! Mais n’exagérons rien, tout cela n’est qu’extrapolation.

Once referred to as the Pearl of Africa, then devastated by civil war, peace and radical economic reforms have transformed the country. Major initiatives have been launched to bring telecommunication services and the Internet to both urban and rural parts of the country, partly funded by the highly successful operators through a Universal Service Fund. An initial competition framework has been implemented and both the public and private sector encourage continued liberalization.

Although Uganda is one of the smallest markets in the region, it is also one of the fastest growing markets in Africa and the Middle East. All market segments are experiencing strong growth. Sylwia Boguszewska, analyst at Pyramid Research explains, ‘In the next five years Uganda will experience the second highest percentage increase in terms of mobile subscriptions among the African countries (after Cameroon).’ These expectations build on the fact that mobile penetration rose from just 1.9 percent at year-end 2002 to an estimated 39.0 percent in 2009. She goes on to explain, ‘It will increase further to reach 70.7 percent penetration by 2014, while the number of mobile subscriptions will exceed 27 million.’

Needless to say, the Ugandan telecom sector continues to go through a major transformation. This is largely the result of a successful liberalization process. The country now boasts five mobile operators with new entrants at the fringes. The three most established includes MTN Uganda, Uganda Telecom, and Zain Uganda. These were later joined by Warid Telecom, which entered the market in February 2008, and Orange Uganda, which launched in March 2009. Anupam is a sixth operator sniffing out opportunities. It’s no surprise the sector has become the country’s most important tax payer and a vital piece of the economy.

This increased competition helps to drive down prices, with new entrant Warid being particularly aggressive in their fight to attract new subscribers. Sylwia of Pyramid Research goes on to explain, ‘Last year, the three mobile operators – MTN Uganda, UTL, and Zain – commanded 85 percent of mobile market subscribers, while Warid Telecom, despite its late entry in 2008, managed to gain a significant 15 percent market share.’ MTN’s Zone pricing scheme is another service that is proving popular. Depending on your location and the traffic on the network the service will calculate rates in real time. The service makes a difference given subscribers can sometimes score a 90% discount and It’s not uncommon to walk an extra two minutes because you might get a better rate.

These developments aside, Uganda as a country still has a long way to go. The World Economic Forum recently released the Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009 known for their Network Readiness Index (NRI) – This shows how prepared countries are to use ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) effectively. The report states, ‘Africa does not compare well to the 134 countries indexed for the report. Tunisia is at number 38, Mauritius 51, South Africa 52, Egypt 76, Botswana 77, Senegal 80, Morocco 86, Nigeria 90, Gambia 91, Namibia 92, Kenya 97 and others.’ At the end of the list Uganda ranks in at 120 while only countries like Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and Chad follow.

Dec 1996

45,145 – Fixed Phone Lines
3,000 – Mobile Subscribers
2 – Internet Service Providers
14 – Private FM Radios
4 – Private Television
2 – Courier Service Providers
1,258 – Pay Phones

Mar 2007

137,916 – Fixed Phone Lines
3,015,493 – Mobile Subscribers
17 – Internet Service Providers
158 – Private FM Radios
32 – Private Television
25 – Courier Service Providers
16,059 – Pay Phones

D’après le dernier numéro de l’hebdomadaire Jeune Afrique, le groupe koweïtien ZAIN serait en négociation avec le sixiéme opérateur mobile de la cote d’ivoire pour une acquisition de ce dernier. Voici le texte:

Après avoir repris l’année dernière CELLCOM à des privés ivoiriens, Warid Telecom Cote D’ivoire, filiales locale d’un groupe d’Abudabi, est entrée en pourparlers avec le Koweïtien Zain. Les négociations devraient aboutir avant la fin du mois de mai. Sixième titulaire d’une licence GSM en Cote d’Ivoire, Warid doit lancer son service au second semestre.
via regul-telco-afrik, via Jeune Afrique.

Ainsi donc, le groupe Koweïtien poursuit son offensive en Afrique. Son objectif de “faire  partie des 10 meilleures sociétés de télécommunications au monde d’ici 2011 ” semble etre pris tres au serieux.

Et rien ne semble pouvoir freiné cet élan, les ventes de licences d’exploitation s’étant estompées, Zain change de stratégie en rachetant. C’est de cette manière que le groupe a pu se déployer au Ghana (après l’acquisition de Westel), filiale qui est sensé être la base de ces opérations pour attaquer l’Afrique de l’Ouest.

Après un échec au Sénégal face à Sudatel/Expresso, les responsables de Zain voudraient maintenant s’attaquer au marché voisin de la Côte d’Ivoire (très compétitif, au vu de l’activité des 5 entreprises déjà présentes sur le terrain).

Ne negligeant aucun marché, Zain vient par ailleurs de rentrer dans le capital de Wana, opérateur marocain détenteur de licences fixes, 2G et 3G.

Si les négociations avec Warid aboutissent, ce serait encore un grand pas pour ce géant des télécoms, pionnier dans le monde avec son réseau unique “OneNetwork”. Concept qui en plus de permettre aux clients de recevoir des appels et d’appeler dans tous les pays couverts par l’opérateur à des tarifs locaux, est en train d’être étendu aux services Data (Données et Internet).

Petite question,  Zain et Warid sont deja en confrontations sur des marchés comme le Congo Brazza ou l’Ouganda! Que feront (ou devront faire) les filiales respectives si les maisons-mères s’allient?

J’imagine bien qu’elles doivent fusionner également mais voyez cela sur le (très) long terme, on risque de se retrouver un jour avec un seul opérateur au monde !!!

Rashid spends 40% of his income on mobile credit

Kampala – April 8th – Interview with Rashid

Today I had the opportunity to interview Rashid. He grew up in Kampala and is a student at the Makerere University. He is 27 years old and uses both a mobile phone and Internet.

Mobile Profile: Unlike other users I have met he has only one mobile phone, but does have three sim cards (MTN, Zain and Warid)! He subscribed with MTN in 2000 because it was the cheapest at that time. He took a second subscription with Zain in 2006. He took the second subscription mainly because he had a friend who could give him the same phone number he uses with MTN (only the first three digits change and depending on the network). He took his third subscription with Warid because a friend got him the number and the company, for a short period, was offering free calls in the evening. From about 10:00 PM to 6:00 AM. The company doesn’t offer this service anymore and he doesn’t really use the sim card as a result. What really surprised me was to learn that he spends about 40% of his income on mobile phone credit. His other big cost is fuel. I asked what he spends on food, clothes and other things but he gets most of these things through his family.

Internet Profile: He uses the Internet once a week for about an hour. His family has a laptop (Dell) at home but the adapter is broken so they can’t use it. A new one is about 80 euro and this is too expensive to buy. Instead he makes use of his uncle’s wireless connection and laptop. He mentioned that this was also not so easy as he has to compete for Internet time with his three sisters (he has more siblings but they live elsewhere). He complained that his sisters use most of their time for social networking. He mentioned they use Facebook, Hi5 and e-mail. He explained that he only uses Facebook but can’t keep up with some of his friends. One friend in particular posts images several times a week. But more importantly, he uses his limited time to find articles for school and his research (he is currently working to finish his master’s thesis). He spends most of his time on Emerald Insight, a database for publications and research. He also uses e-mail to communicate with friends and professional contacts.

In a country where basic living necessities are not fulfilled, where people survive on scarce food and water and struggle to have a decent home, dreaming about real democracy, they will probably be better off with cell phones. This is the main point of Paul Mason’s BCC short report on his journey to Kenya. The correspondent traveled through the country following the mobile phone networks and emphasized changes in the economy and democracy brought by these networks.
Mason describes the importance of the creation of M-Pesa, a mobile application built by Celtel and Safaricom that allows users to transfer money. In a place where most of the people don’t have bank accounts and barely use plastic money, this simple innovation can make Africa a more liquid economy. He also explains how the use of cell phone is already benefiting the population in terms of democratic actions. In Kibera, Africa’s biggest slum, people are using cell phones to fight evictions. He reports: “They used what we would call flashmobbing to call people from across the many different and rival settlements together where big evictions were planned, and threatened to sit down in front of the bulldozers.”
Even though the changes seem very small, Kenyans who own a cell phone consider it massive. Not that all the problems will suddenly disappear, but as Mason wrote on his report, they will give African people more power, and a bigger voice. It is definitely something for those who have never had anything.

Questions:

1. What other countries besides Kenya are using similar systems to M-Pesa? What are the security risks associated with the financial transaction?  

2. Could the Kenyan government shut down the mobile phone networks if it considered “dangerous” for political purposes?

Zain Kenya (formerly Celtel) says it is to continue investing in its cellular network during 2009 to improve coverage in rural areas. Kenya’s second largest mobile operator says that there is still a large untapped market in rural regions. The firm is also hoping to launch a new mobile payment service to compete alongside the M-Pesa offering from market leader Safaricom. ‘On the back of excellent market response in 2008, we are looking forward to expand our network and introduce new value added services like the M-Banking solution this quarter,’ says Zain Kenya Managing Director Rene Meza. According to sources, Zain claimed 2.56 million subscribers and a 17.6% share of the overall mobile market in Kenya at the end of September 2008.

Zamtel has been hindered by government involvement & a tendency to rob Peter to pay Paul & as such has suffered from a lack of serious investment. Now that competition for fixed line services is being realised with the emergence of fixed broadband competitors, the Zambian government has decided to try & back away & part privatise to allow a partner to come in & assist in re-building the company.

Zambian Communications and Transport Minister, Dora Siliya, said that the government is to appoint an asset evaluation company to conduct an immediate audit to determine the full extent of Zamtel’s assets and liabilities.

That exercise should  be completed before the end of this month. Thereafter, via a tender process, a strategic equity partner will be sought and be in place by the Spring of 2009. However, even though it might be possible for a partner to make a decent return on investment in a relatively short time – if Zamtel is managed properly – for the Zambian government to be seeking a cash-rich benefactor as the global recession gathers momentum could be seen as being a big ask.

Last week, Zamtel’s acting CEO, Mukela Muyunda, let it be known that the Zambian government wants to separate Zamtel’s mobile arm, CellZ from the parent company.

Basically, CellZ has been run by Zamtel’s management for more than a decade past and has suffered as a result.  The government has begun to press for the spin-off and to put in place new management structure for the mobile service provider that should make the mobilke operator more able to stand up to competitors Celtel Zambia / Zain & South African giant MTN

Zamtel is the dominant landline operator, but is the smallest of the country’s mobile networks by subscriber numbers. According to figures from Mobile World analysts, the firm ended the first half of 2008 with an estimated 403,000 subscribers, behind MTN with 453,000 – and a long way behind market leader, Zain who had 2.3 million customers. So any new partner will have an uphill struggle on their hands. Also, to complicate matters further, the National Union of Communication Workers said that it supported the sale in principle – but only if jobs are guaranteed. The company currently has a workforce of around 2,700.

Interesting times on the Zambezi … will return to this topic in due course, as I have a feeling that some Middle Eastern players may well come in with a package.

Depuis quelque temps déjà, des communiqués de l’Autorité Nationale de Régulation des Télécommunications – ARTEL (et de certains opérateurs mobiles) font état de ce que les abonnés des réseaux GSM seront appelés à être identifié durant la période allant du 1er au 31 Octobre 2008 partout au Burkina Faso. Les numéros qui ne se seront pas vu attribuer un détenteur seront des lors purement et simplement désactivés! Cette campagne d’identification numérique se justifierait pour des raisons de sécurité!

Ce voeux d’identifier tous les possesseurs de numéros cellulaires, si on peut se tordre pour accepter sa bienséance, sa faisabilité mérite d’être grandement analysé.

Supposé que l’on m appelle au moment où je suis hors réseau, ce qui est permanent dans les endroits reculés où tous les possesseurs de téléphone, dans le but de passer ou de recevoir des appels, identifient un endroit spécifique où se mettre. Il est même possible que ce soit le toit de la maison!

Le téléphone portable est fortement implanté au Burkina

Ou encore, que faire des numéros de ceux-là qui seront en déplacement hors du Burkina durant la période définie?

Avec le boom de ces derniers mois, il est assez rare de posséder une seule puce! Toutefois, les portables double-SIM ne sont pas à la portée de tous! Tenir 2 portables est également un privilège réservé à une minorité de Burkinabès! On pratique alors le swap manuel: “de 13h a 15h et de 21h a 7h, je devient zinzin” ou “à partir de 18h, on fait en FAN” …

Et que dire de ces puces qui circulent de cousins à cousines, de beauf à belle-sœur, d’amis à ennemis (!) ?

Tous ces numéros légitimes se verront donc supprimés, comme ça?

Je ne pense pas que cela fasse plaisir à ces opérateurs qui crient à tout va leur nombre d’abonnés et qui malgré gagnent des marges avec ces numéros utilisé occasionnellement.

Et d’ailleurs, parlant de sécurité, qu’est ce qui oblige ces inconnus au bout du fil à donner leur vrai identité s’ils sont mal intentionnées? N’y a t-il pas de risques d’usurpation d’identité? Ou alors va-t-on obligé ces vieillards, parmi d’autres, coincés au fond du Burkina à rejoindre les cités urbaines pour s’identifier?

C’est compliqué tout ça! On n’a plus qu’à … wait and see…

This is my ode to a book series I loved when I was a little girl and not yet Evilina, the mistress of hot and cold slaps. The Nancy Drew mystery books by Caroline Keene destroyed my eyesight because I couldn’t put them down and would read them under my blanket at night by the ambient light that came in through my window from the passage outside my room. I loved the names the mysteries had like, The Clue in the Crossword Cipher and The Password to Larkspur Lane and I would fantasise about being like her and cracking inscrutable cases once a week. I bring up my childhood heroine now because I feel that I finally have a case that would have been worthy of her skill. It is, of course, the case of Zain, the multi-faced Telecommunications Company.

Before I begin, I would like to acknowledge that Zain has not been singled out for the honour of a slap because they are a crappy service provider. In that, they are well matched by their market contemporaries, MTN and Glo. No, Zain has been singled out because they have turned being a crappy Telecom Service Provider into something more than itself. They have turned it into Art.

As their services have gone from really bad to piss take, I have wondered, why? Why do they think they can get away with this? I began, like Nancy Drew, to investigate the matter and everything began to point in a single direction.

Multiple Personality Disorder.

This condition, now professionally referred to as Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID) is defined in almighty Wikipedia as “a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a condition in which a single person displays multiple distinct identities or personalities, each with its own pattern of perceiving and interacting with the environment.[1] The diagnosis requires that at least two personalities routinely take control of the individual’s behaviour with an associated memory loss that goes beyond normal forgetfulness…” If you have been in Nigeria within the last three years, this should sound familiar to you. A single entity? Multiple distinct identities or personalities? VMobile, Celtel and Zain? Forgetting how to provide actual telecommunication services?

Lets not forget that this telecom provider actually started of as Econet Wireless Nigeria after which it manifested its first personality, Vodacom, which apparently lasted only a month. It may have been the shortest lived of Econet’s multiple identities but it certainly seemed to open the floodgates and I’m afraid its all been down hill from there. That’s right down hill, because with each successively cheesier identity, the Telecom’s services have been seeking newer and lower depths of crappy.

Again, I reiterate that Nigeria’s telecom services industry in general is an exercise in shame and exploitation but Zain! It’s like they’ve pretty much given up on putting any calls through! Perhaps they want to shift sectors? Maybe go into entertainment and event planning? Lord knows it’s the only area in which they seem to be active.

Which brings to mind a sub-mystery in this case; just what are they using all that lovely new Zane cash for? Here are my hypotheses:

1. To alleviate boredom by distracting innocent, Nigerian commuters with their new, garish aquamarine and magenta brand palette and causing random road carnage (because we don’t have enough of that).

2. To compete with Etisalat and Silverbird on who can build the biggest phallic symbol on Banana Island.

3. To irritate Nigerian Internet surfers to death with their absolutely gross and spamalicious banner campaign thereby substantially reducing yahoozey occurrences.

4. To pretend to compete with Facebook with their total joke of a social networking website, Central Station.

5. To release yet another heavily branded and meaningless service (Tru Call) providing yet another excuse for high level Zane employees to party their a**es off at the expense of we the paying customers who are, alas, still yet to receive anything resembling telecommunication services from them since their latest metamorphosis.

Please feel free to append to this list! But back to my original diagnosis. The first step towards healing is identifying and admitting the problem. Zain has obviously been suffering from the Psychopathic problem known as Multiple Personality Disorder (also known within Church circles as “Legion”). I don’t know what could have started it. Most studies seem to support childhood abuse. Who abused Zain when they were Econet? Was it the stockholders? Was it her employees? Was it MTN, the evil competition from overseas? We hope one day, Zain will heal enough to get on Moments with Mo’ and tell us. Until then we must suggest an immediate prescription.

On Slap! we are pretty old school and I think that the Churches will agree with us in our belief that the best thing for a case of MPD is some cold, hard, head clearing Slaps. Time to take your medicine, Zain.

1. For being so crappy that it’s easier to call someone using another service provider than someone also using Zain.
*SLAP*
2. For abuse of branding.
*SLAP*
3. For polluting our internet with your ugly banner ads.
*SLAP*
4. For your stupid new tag line! You know damn well that it is not a beautiful world and not being able to make phone calls is part of the problem.
*SLAP*
5. For the aquamarine and magenta buildings! Why? What did we ever do to you guys?
*SLAP*
6. For Central Station which I have refrained from going into because it will be getting its own post. But it’s still f***ing embarrassing.
*SLAP*

I still have a lot of slap left in me for Zain but my co-writers are restraining me and telling me that it’s enough. I can only say that I truly hope it is.

Let the healing begin.

Okay…for those who still run around looking for network settings, hope this helps:

MTN:

IP address: 010.199.212.002

APN: web.gprs.mtnnigeria.net

username: web

password: web

homepage: http://mobile.ngbot.com/m

ZAIN:

IP address: 172.018.254.005

APN:wap.ng.zain.com

username: wap

password: wap

homepage: http://mobile.ngbot.com/m

GLO:

IP address: 010.100.098.022

APN:glogwap

username: wap

password: wap

homepage: http://mobile.ngbot.com/m

Mobile telecommunications provider Celtel today changed its identity to Zain, in conformance with its parent company’s master brand.

The new logo for Zain

Celtel International was acquired by Mobile Telecommunications Company (MTC) of Kuwait in April 2005. MTC then changed its brand to Zain hence the rebranding of Celtel’s entire operations spanning 15 countries in Africa.

Zain is an Arabic word meaning, ‘beautiful, good and wonderful.’

As part of the launch activities, Zain International announced its intention to inject Shs25 billion (US$37 million) into its Kenyan network. Dr Saad Hamad Al Barrack, the company president said this during consultations with President Kibaki at State House, Nairobi.

Dr Saad was accompanied by senior Company officials: Mr Rene Meza, Michael Okwiri and Mr Naushad Merali.

Further details from the Daily Nation

… Et le début de Zain. En effet, le Groupe Zain, proprietaire de “Celtel International” depuis Avril 2005 n’a pas dérogé à cette mode de “Branding” unique que toutes les multinationales appliquent depuis un certain temps. Adieu Celtel, vive Zain comme vu ici (Jeune Afrique).

On peut être tenter de se demander pourquoi un tel acharnement pour le Rebranding de la part de tout nouvel acquéreur. Diminuer les couts relatifs aux publicités? Quand on connait les sommes faramineuses que les entreprises mettent sur la table pour pouvoir être partenaires de grands évènements. Pour illustration, souvenez vous des dernières Coupes d’Afriques des Nations (CAN) avec MTN sans oublier la coupe du monde 2010.

La derniere campagne pub en date de Celtel

Une deuxième motivation pourrait être le prestige dont bénéficie une entreprise à citer une dizaine de pays où il est implanté… Toujours est-il que ce mouvement se constate plus dans le secteur des télécommunications (mobiles).

C’est ainsi que,

• En Cote d’Ivoire
  • Ivoiris est devenu Orange
  • Telecel de Loteny est devenu MTN

• Au Ghana
  • Buzz est devenu Mobitel puis TIGO
  • Spacefon est devenu Areeba puis MTN

• Au Sénégal
  • Sentel est devenu TIGO
  • Alizé a rejoint Orange

• Au Mali
  • Ikatel s’est relooké en Orange

• …

Ouf, resumons en disant qu’ en général, Areeba est devenu MTN, Telecel (d’Atlantique Telecom) a pris (ou essaie de prendre !) le nom de Moov.

Et la seule Africaine dans tout ça? MTN… Et j’en vois plus. Celtel, bien que fondé par un Africain du Soudan (le Docteur Mo), est depuis devenu un jouet pour petroliers koweitiens (MTC puis Zain)!

Bof, chers Amis, pour ceux qui comme moi sont assez nostalgiques de ces choses là, soyez aux aguets des gadgets Rouge-Jaune,  Celtel, “La vie en mieux”. (Tenez vous bien, j’ai toujours de petits choses de Telecel de Loteny et de Celtel, “A vous la parole”, c’était pas un rebranding mais bon…).

Le nouveau venu! ça change des couleurs vives de Celtel!

Car dans les tous prochains jours, ce sera Zain. (J’ai pas encore trouvé pour vous le slogan!)

PS: Je connais pas Celtel ailleurs, mais Celtel Burkina sera certainement de celles qui auront le plus de mal à passer le cap du rebranding vu le déploiement qu’a connu le logo aux couleurs Rouge et Jaune…

The new boss of Celtel Kenya faces the huge task of turning around the country’s second mobile phone provider, hit by a declining market share and numerous management shake-ups.

The Celtel Kenya head office in Nairobi.

Mr Rene Meza began work as the new CEO for Celtel Kenya, just weeks after a massive exodus of senior management, triggered by the firm’s declining foothold in the lucrative mobile phone market. In the early years of this decade, Celtel then called Kencell, had a 50-50 share of the market with its rival Safaricom. Today, Safaricom commands 80% of the market with Celtel scrambling for the rest with Telkom Kenya. Mr Meza will be expected to reverse this decline and increase profitability.

While Safaricom makes hundreds of millions of dollars in annual profits, Celtel Kenya’s accounts have been made public only twice in its eight year history. A couple of years ago, Celtel Kenya made a profit of Kshs1.2 billion (about US$18 million). The following year, profits tumbled to Kshs64 million (approx $1 million) and that was the last profit announcement by the firm.

Mr Meza, a Paraguayan, has been seconded by the Zain Group of Kuwait, which owns substantial shares in Celtel. Mr Meza previously headed Tanzanian mobile phone operator, Millicom Tigo. While introducing himself to the press, Mr Meza announced that Celtel will spend Shs25 billion ($385 million) on expanding its network in coming years. This, analysts say, will put Celtel in a better position to cope with the entry of two new mobile phone operators into the Kenyan market in coming months.

Econet Wireless plans to launch mobile phone services in the country before the end of the year. Telkom Kenya is also set to increase its investment in the mobile phone sector as its land line business succumbs to technological changes and rampant vandalism of cables.

Celtel Kenya’s main shareholders are the Zain Group of Kuwait and Sameer Investments, a local holding company. The Zain Group intends to shift its Africa headquarters to Nairobi, proof that the Kenyan operation requires greater hands-on management.

Celtel Kenya has announced unlimited internet for it’s post-paid customers through it’s UhuruNet plan. The service will be available for Kshs 2,995 per month all over Kenya.

Kuwaiti based telecom provider, Zain, plans to move it’s Africa headquarters to Nairobi within the next few months. The company, valued at USD$28 billion, owns mobile operator Celtel Kenya and employs 15,000 people worldwide with service in 22 countries including 15 in Sub-Saharan Africa. No word on how many net new jobs will be created.

This comes after a reorganization was just announced at Celtel Kenya as the company jostles to catch up with market leader, Safaricom in a landscape that has become fierce, competitive, fast changing, innovation-driven and the weakest feel pain.

Celtel Kenya fired its top managers, cementing a notoriety for high staff turnover, as its performance fails to impress in the lucrative mobile phone industry.

Celtel Kenya head office in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi

This week, Celtel announced that its head of corporate and regulatory affairs, Dr Claire Ruto and the corporate affairs manager, Janet Kabue had, “left” the company. Chief Executive David Murray left a few months ago as did the Marketing Director, Anna Othoro. The departures come in the wake of the successful launch of an Initial Public Offering by Celtel’s competitor, Safaricom that netted billions of shillings at the Nairobi Stock Exchange.

In eight years of fierce competition, Celtel has only managed to acquire 3 million mobile phone subscribers compared to 10 million for Safaricom. In the past year, Safaricom announced profits of close to US$300 million, the highest in East and Central Africa. Celtel has announced profits only twice since it began business in Kenya.

A couple of years ago, Celtel declared a profit of US$18 million, while Safaricom made $250 million the same year. The next year, Celtel declared profits of only $1 million and that was the last time Celtel made its finances public. It goes without saying that the CEO at the time was later fired!

Staff turnover at Celtel Kenya is so high that the media is never sure who the CEO is at any given time. This week, company said there will be a new CEO by early July.

Despite the management changes, Kenya’s second largest mobile phone company isn’t making headway in the market inspite of massive discounts in its calling rates.

But why has Celtel failed to capture the imagination of Kenya’s mobile phone market inspite of a promising beginning in the year 2000?

Celtel began life as Kenya Cellular Communications Ltd, or Kencell. It was a joint venture between Vivendi of France and Sameer Investments of Kenya. Sameer is controlled by Mr Naushad N. Merali, one of Kenya’s weathiest investors with links to top political figures. At the time, the shareholding in Kencell was 40% for Vivendi and 60% for Sameer, in line with regulations of the Communications Commission of Kenya.

Between 2000 and 2003, Kencell grew faster than Safaricom due to its high quality voice and data network. This was when Safaricom was experiencing teething problems due to its association with the bankrupt Telkom Kenya. The Safaricom network was congested and prone to breakdowns.

However, from around 2002, Safaricom began rebranding itself as a, “cheap” network. It began a billing system based on seconds rather than minutes. Strictly speaking, its cheaper for customers to pay for the minute rather than paying for each second. But Safaricom realized that Kenyans have, “peculiar” calling habits where the average phone call lasts only a few seconds. Kencell, with its full-minute billing lost the battle.

As one Safaricom advert put it, “Why pay for a whole minute when you can pay for only the seconds you talk?”

Kencell eventually changed its tariffs to per-second billing but the damage had been done.

In 2005, Vivendi of France sold its 40% stake in Kencell to Celtel International hence Kencell changed to Celtel Kenya. However, the entry of Celtel into the Kenyan market brought other complications.

Celtel adopted a Pan African marketing strategy of using the same advertising campaigns throughout the region. What Celtel failed to understand, is that Kenyans do not like to be associated with the rest of Africa! Kenyans are not Pan Africanists, instead, Kenyans prefer looking up to Europe and the United States. Celtel realized their mistake after two years of wasted advertising worth hundreds of millions of shillings. In the meantime, Safaricom was making localized advertisements that helped draw in millions of customers thus expanding its market share. Indeed, Safaricom adverts went ahead to win international awards.

In the past year, Celtel has lowered its tariffs, making it the cheapest network in Kenya. Unfortunately, most Kenyans are hooked to Safaricom, beleiving that Celtel is an “expensive” network. The early battles between per-minute and per-second billing are still fresh in the minds of many.

Celtel Kenya has signed a roaming agreement with OnAir and AeroMobile to provide inlflight email, sms messaging and phone service.

Rebecca Wanjiku article on CIO magazine

Zwar ist die Stromversorgung in Tansania nicht überall wirklich verlässlich und es mangelnd auch an anderen Versorgungsgrundlagen, aber Freiwillige/Praktikanten, die nicht auf den täglichen Kontakt zur Außenwelt verzichten können werden sich darüber freuen, dass man sich in Tansania nahezu flächendeckend über das Mobilfunknetzwerk ins Internet einwählen kann!

Dazu braucht man ein GPRS-fähiges Mobiltelefon oder einen Laptop mit GPRS-Karte. Die Geschwindigkeit ist nicht berauschend, aber ausreichend zum Emails empfangen und versenden sowie Standard-Webseite zu lesen.  Abgerechnet wird nach Datenvolumen. Die beiden Anbieter sind Celtel und Vodacom. Hier gibt’s mehr darüber:

http://www.tz.celtel.com/en/phone-services/internet-access/index.html
http://www.vodacom.co.tz/docs/docredir.asp?docid=3435

Internetcafés gibt’s übrigens auch in fast jeder Kleinstadt.