Watch the video playlist below to find out what Jim Rogers is saying about the recent gold and silver price crash as well and his price prediction for the next few years.

Interview Continued

Do you expect the US politicians to do something about the debt? To balance the budget any time soon?

Rogers: No, not at all. Not either the present politicians or future politicians. The situation is so dire that it would be almost impossible to balance the budget and pay down the debt without an enormous amount of pain. Now suppose that somebody could win an election on that platform – well within six months or a year or two, he would either be assassinated or give up because the people would say “wait a minute, we didn’t know it was this much pain. This is not what we had in mind” and he would be thrown out and his policies reversed. No it’s not going to happen until there’s a crisis or a semi crisis. That’s the lesson of history. Nobody gets out of this situation until there’s a crisis.

What would you say to those that see the current situation as perfectly sustainable, especially in reference to the money printing, quantitative easing, etc.

Rogers: I would suggest that they get out a couple of simple history books and see if there has even been a way out. For what it’s worth, there has not been and there won’t be. I suggest that they look it up. They don’t have to listen to people like me, look it up.

Do you think that Bernanke and the Fed have an exit plan from QE and zero-rates?

Rogers: Mr Bernanke’s exit plan apparently is that he is going to leave his job. He doesn’t want to stick around for the hangover. He doesn’t want to be around for the consequences of what he’s doing. I don’t know if there’s an exit plan. If and when they stop it’s going to cause lots of ramifications in the market and lots of, perhaps even chaos, but certainly turmoil and upset. The only exit plan that he’s talked about is to let it all mature. That sounds wonderful, but it’s not very practical.

Do you expect the Euro to lose the currency wars? Which will fall down the cliff first? The yen, the euro or the dollar?

Rogers: It depends on what standard of measure you are talking about. The Japanese claim that they are going to print “unlimited” amounts of money. That’s their word, not mine. Unlimited amounts of money. I would expect the yen to go the furthest the fastest. But America has also said “wait guys, we’ll print a lot of money too” – though they didn’t say “unlimited”. And the British said “we should do it”.

So I don’t really know. It’s a very good question, which one to own. I don’t own the yen, because “unlimited” is a pretty hefty amount of money. I grapple with this every day, which currencies to own. Believe it or not I was even contemplating putting money into the ruble – only because it seemed less flawed at the moment than these others.

I have to ask: have you heard of Bitcoin? Do you own any?

Rogers: I’ve heard of Bitcoin, I’ve never taken the time to figure out how it works and what it is. I know it’s there.

Find the rest of this interview at GoldMoney.com

In this very short 2 min video, you will understand why the global economy is in shambles. MUST SEE!!

BJACTOTL:IND – Bank of Japan Total Assets

EBBSLONG:IND – European Central Bank Balance Sheet Long Term Refinancing Operations

By Steven J. Grisafi, PhD.
DATA COMPILED ON A ROLLING TEN BUSINESS DAYS BASIS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS ISOSURFACE
CONTOUR VALUE OF THE ISOSURFACE IS ZERO

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE DIVIDED BY PRODUCT DOMINANT EIGENVALUE AND SEVENTH ROOT DETERMINANT

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS TRAJECTORY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND POTENTIAL TOPOGRAPHY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE MINUS DOMINANT EIGENVALUE DIVIDED BY DOMINANT EIGENVALUE

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE COMPLEMENTARY FUNCTIONS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL FLUX RATIO

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL DIFFUSIVITY

FIGURES ARE GIF ANIMATIONS.

BJACTOTL:IND – Bank of Japan Total Assets

EBBSLONG:IND – European Central Bank Balance Sheet Long Term Refinancing Operations

By Steven J. Grisafi, PhD.
DATA COMPILED ON A ROLLING TEN BUSINESS DAYS BASIS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS ISOSURFACE
CONTOUR VALUE OF THE ISOSURFACE IS ZERO

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE DIVIDED BY PRODUCT DOMINANT EIGENVALUE AND SEVENTH ROOT DETERMINANT

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS TRAJECTORY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND POTENTIAL TOPOGRAPHY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE MINUS DOMINANT EIGENVALUE DIVIDED BY DOMINANT EIGENVALUE

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE COMPLEMENTARY FUNCTIONS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL FLUX RATIO

FIGURES ARE GIF ANIMATIONS.

Credit : Wikipedia

In an interview with The New American, Hudes said that when she tried to blow the whistle on multiple problems at the World Bank, she was fired for her efforts. Now, along with a network of fellow whistleblowers, Hudes is determined to expose and end the corruption. And she is confident of success.

Citing an explosive 2011 Swiss study published in the PLOS ONE journal on the “network of global corporate control,” Hudes pointed out that a small group of entities — mostly financial institutions and especially central banks — exert a massive amount of influence over the international economy from behind the scenes. “What is really going on is that the world’s resources are being dominated by this group,” she explained, adding that the “corrupt power grabbers” have managed to dominate the media as well. “They’re being allowed to do it.”

According to the peer-reviewed paper, which presented the first global investigation of ownership architecture in the international economy, transnational corporations form a “giant bow-tie structure.” A large portion of control, meanwhile, “flows to a small tightly-knit core of financial institutions.” The researchers described the core as an “economic ‘super-entity’” that raises important issues for policymakers and researchers. Of course, the implications are enormous for citizens as well.

Hudes, an attorney who spent some two decades working in the World Bank’s legal department, has observed the machinations of the network up close. “I realized we were now dealing with something known as state capture, which is where the institutions of government are co-opted by the group that’s corrupt,” she told The New American in a phone interview. “The pillars of the U.S. government — some of them — are dysfunctional because of state capture; this is a big story, this is a big cover up.”

At the heart of the network, Hudes said, are 147 financial institutions and central banks — especially the Federal Reserve, which was created by Congress but is owned by essentially a cartel of private banks. “This is a story about how the international financial system was secretly gamed, mostly by central banks — they’re the ones we are talking about,” she explained. “The central bankers have been gaming the system. I would say that this is a power grab.”

The Fed in particular is at the very center of the network and the coverup, Hudes continued, citing a policy and oversight body that includes top government and Fed officials. Central bankers have also been manipulating gold prices, she added, echoing widespread concerns that The New American has documented extensively. Indeed, even the inaccurate World Bank financial statements that Hudes has been trying to expose are linked to the U.S. central bank, she said.

“The group that we’re talking about from the Zurich study — that’s the Federal Reserve; it has some other pieces to it, but that’s the Federal Reserve,” Hudes explained. “So the Federal Reserve secretly dominated the world economy using secret, interlocking corporate directorates, and terrorizing anybody who managed to figure out that they were having any kind of role, and putting people in very important positions so that they could get a free pass.”

The shadowy but immensely powerful Bank for International Settlements serves as “the club of these private central bankers,” Hudes continued. “Now, are people going to want interest on their country’s debts to continue to be paid to that group when they find out the secret tricks that that group has been doing? Don’t forget how they’ve enriched themselves extraordinarily and how they’ve taken taxpayer money for the bailout.”

As far as intervening in the gold price, Hudes said it was an effort by the powerful network and its central banks to “hold onto its paper currency” — a suspicion shared by many analysts and even senior government officials. The World Bank whistleblower also said that contrary to official claims, she did not believe there was any gold being held in Fort Knox. Even congressmen and foreign governments have tried to find out if the precious metals were still there, but they met with little success. Hudes, however, believes the scam will eventually come undone.

“This is like crooks trying to figure out where they can go hide. It’s a mafia,” she said. “These culprits that have grabbed all this economic power have succeeded in infiltrating both sides of the issue, so you will find people who are supposedly trying to fight corruption who are just there to spread disinformation and as a placeholder to trip up anybody who manages to get their act together.… Those thugs think that if they can keep the world ignorant, they can bleed it longer.”

Of course, the major corruption at the highest levels of government and business is not a new phenomenon. Georgetown University historian and Professor Carroll Quigley, who served as President Bill Clinton’s mentor, for example, wrote about the scheme in his 1966 book Tragedy And Hope: A History Of The World In Our Time. The heavyweight academic, who was allowed to review documents belonging to the top echelons of the global establishment, even explained how the corrupt system would work — remarkably similar to what Hudes describes.

“The powers of financial capitalism had a far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole,” wrote Prof. Quigley, who agreed with the goals but not the secrecy. “This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations.”

But it is not going to happen, Hudes said — at least not if she has something do to with it. While the media are dominated by the “power grabber” network, Hudes has been working with foreign governments, reporters, U.S. officials, state governments, and a broad coalition of fellow whistleblowers to blow the entire scam wide open. There has been quite a bit of interest, too, particularly among foreign governments and state officials in the United States.

Citing the wisdom of America’s Founding Fathers in creating a federal system of government with multiple layers of checks and balances, Hudes said she was confident that the network would eventually be exposed and subjected to the rule of law, stopping the secret corruption. If and when that happens — even if it may be disorderly — Hudes says precious metals will once again play a role in imposing discipline on the monetary system. The rule of law would also be restored, she said, and the public will demand a proper press to stay informed.

“We’re going to have a cleaned-up financial system, that’s where it is going, but in the meantime, people who didn’t know how the system was gamed are going to find out,” she said. “We’re going to have a different kind of international financial system…. It’ll be a new kind of world where people know what’s going on — no more backroom deals; that’s not going to keep happening. We’re going to have a different kind of media if people don’t want to be dominated and controlled, which I don’t think they do.”

While Hudes sounded upbeat, she recognizes that the world is facing serious danger right now — there are even plans in place to impose martial law in the United States, she said. The next steps will be critical for humanity. As such, Hudes argues, it is crucial that the people of the world find out about the lawlessness, corruption, and thievery that are going on at the highest levels — and put a stop to it once and for all. The consequences of inaction would be disastrous.

Alex Newman, a foreign correspondent for The New American, is currently based in Europe. He can be reached at anewman@thenewamerican.com.

Reblogged from World Chaos News:

By  Alex Newman | The New American - A former insider at the World Bank, ex-Senior Counsel Karen Hudes, says the global financial system is dominated by a small group of corrupt, power-hungry figures centered around the privately owned U.S. Federal Reserve. The network has seized control of the media to cover up its crimes, too, she explained.

Read more… 378 more words

I just briefly saw the report on CBS Evening News about Liberty Reserve. It was the most bias ever as they just accepted what the government officials had to say and didn’t even question it. They briefly explained what the service did, but they didn’t even mention the fact of decentralized virtual currencies, and made it seem to be a hub of cybercrime. What they didn’t say is that is decentralized digital currency trading service that traded Bitcoins (which is even noted by Reuters). They could have said a bubble is coming for the decentralized virtual currency as the total money supply is equal to over $1.4 billion and that some of Big Banks have shown interest in investing. At the same time similar services have decided to reject US customers.

What Techdirt wrote should also be noted:

“Are governments ramping up their efforts to crack down on alternative currencies that are outside of their control? In the past, we’ve seen politicians attack Bitcoin as a form of “money laundering.” Then, a few weeks ago, ICE went after Mt.Gox, the super popular Bitcoin exchange. Now, the latest is that the founder of the digital currency site Liberty Reserve, which also dealt in Bitcoin, has been arrested and the site has been shut down. It’s no secret that Bitcoin can and is used for less than legal purposes, and it does seem like Mt.Gox and Liberty Reserve aren’t always perfect about complying with the ins and outs of running businesses that deal in currency. So these moves may be perfectly reasonable and legal. However, there is a larger concern about how these may suggest governments really taking a much harder look at things like Bitcoin, and closely targeting any company that is involved in Bitcoin exchanges with government-backed currencies.”

Also, what was written by Bitcoin Magazine is important:

“In 2011, Liberty Reserve, together with Dwolla, was one of the main methods of moving money into Bitcoin exchanges to buy bitcoins, and can be credited as being one of the chief enablers of the Bitcoin economy’s early growth at the time.[...] since then it has considerably decreased in importance in the Bitcoin community [...] other services, like OKPay, have grown to fill the space, and other Bitcoin exchanges have added more convenient means of buying bitcoins such as cash deposit and bank transfer.”

Now some additional quotes note that there are some people other than cybercriminals that used Liberty Reserve, considering that equivalent to $1.4 billion and that its closing negatively affected businesses and individuals worldwide. These include:

“We used Liberty Reserve because it was quick, efficient and secure. Now, we – and thousands of others who were dependent on it – have been left with nothing to look at except a blank webpage, and nothing more to go on than reports from the Costa Rican press. We need to know if our assets have been seized and what would be the requirements to get the funds returned.”- Co-founder Mitchell Rossetti of ePay, a texas company that had “$28,000 sitting in his business’s Liberty Reserve account” when the site went offline

“We have one type of account used to pay electricity bills. Some of our customers in places like Senegal and Malaysia don’t have access to other types of payment. This is a huge setback.
[Arguing his transactions were legit he said:] That’s not money laundering. My question is: if this had happened at Wells Fargo and not Liberty Reserve, would they have wound it up like this?”- Another quote from Rossetti talking about concerned emails he received from customers and his view on the shutting of Liberty Reserve
(same point made by Bill Black on The Real News Network)

“Brian Krebs, an online security expert and former journalist for The Washington Post, wrote that the shutdown of Liberty Reserve “could cause a major upheaval in the cybercrime economy.” The closure prompted disbelief and anger on forums frequented by hackers and cybercriminals.”- Not exact quote but relevant (via Globe and Mail)

“While authorities described Liberty Reserve as being rife with criminals, the site’s ease of use, low fees and irreversible transactions that deterred fraud also attracted legitimate users.”- via the Sydney Morning Herald

“As news circulated of Budovsky’s arrest and the shuttering of Liberty Reserve’s website, anxious clients took to chat rooms and Twitter hoping for information on the fate of their funds, some commentators claiming losses of $50,000 or more.”- via a personal blog titled ‘online business‘)

“[Liberty Reserve was] the leading payment channel for traders in emerging and frontier markets. Forex brokers have been benefiting from Liberty Reserve’s vast access as a payment provider, especially in countries where traders face difficulties in transferring funds. Liberty Reserve was a ‘gift’ for several traders, especially after the State Banks’ (State Bank of Pakistan) changes to international money transfers.”- A broker and analyst in Pakistan, Forex Magnates (via a personal blog titled ‘online business‘)

Conversation of Liberty Reserve users:

sinip
Well, I see the same news on many other sites, but the more worrying part is that Liberty Reserve site seems to be down, I get only blank page when I try to open it from here.

oedhapost
yes, LR is down and so does its blog …
rumors also said that LR was hacked yesterday …
when i did nslookup here, i got SERVFAIL reply
the whois was updated by yesterday >;;>;; Updated:2013-05-24
and the name server has changed :
Name Server: ns1.sinkhole.shadowserver.org
Name Server: ns2.sinkhole.shadowserver.orgwell … shadowserver is a foundation which works upon electronic fraud

sinip
Well, blog works from here: http://blog.libertyreserve.com/ No news inside, though.
And the page opens with https://www.libertyreserve.com I mean blank page and SSL certificate is there.

oedhapost
Well, blog works from here: http://blog.libertyreserve.com/ No news inside, though.
And the page opens with https://www.libertyreserve.com I mean blank page and SSL certificate is there.unfortunately, both were not open from here …
Pale Moon can’t find the server at http://www.libertyreserve.com

norvinpatrick
Wow, i don’t what i have to say but this is a biggest thing, i don’t know am i need to cry or laughing, in here i cannot access them and got so freaking news about them,i think i will waiting until i know which one is right :sick:

goodguy333
What this means Folks…?!:confused:
I will be on the Streets Literally if LR closes down…!:unhappy::cry:
And it will shake the Hyip Industry very badly…!:eek:
Fingers Crossed:jitters:
Hope Good
Sigh

norvinpatrick
What this means Folks…?!:confused:
I will be on the Streets Literally if LR closes down…!:unhappy::cry:
And it will shake the Hyip Industry very badly…!:eek:
Fingers Crossed:jitters:
Hope Good
Sigh
That is right but it seems it is very hard to earn if there isn’t LR.
in PTP also i am sure that admin will switch to Okpay or something like that. but i hope that LR will change and online once more, if that thing happening i will sold all mine

oedhapost
Fingers Crossed:jitters:
Hope Goodyup … hope everything will be fine, just like before
and before this issue, we know that many problems had happened on the past especially about downtime for a day or even for a week …
let’s see …

sinip
If I see anything new posted about the current situation in the LR’s official blog, I’ll let you know.

goodguy333
@norvinpatrick,
Yes, Hope so Bro…!:o
@Oedhapost(Mod)
But Mod,this time the news is that LR Owners are arrested…!:unhappy:
So gotta wait on the Developments…!

ranie
Is that true that LR is going to close and the owner are arrested? :jitters:
I hope that’s just a rumor…

Ixid
The game is over…
Watch this: http://www.teletica.com/Noticias/11646-Detienen-a-tico-en-Espana-vinculado-con-millonario-fraude-electronico.note.aspx
Read this: http://parsherald.com/liberty-reserve-closed-owners-get-arrested-for-money-laundry/1321/
Too many US customers was scammed with too much $$$$$$$, finally FBI decided to bring LR’s business down.
Also there is a notice ON PerfectmoneY’s website: PM doesn’t accept US customers anymore.
Recent changes in Perfect Money Policy
25.05.13
Dear Perfect Money Customers,
We bring to your attention that due to changes in our policy we forbid new registrations from individuals or companies based in the United States of America. This includes US citizens residing overseas. If you fall under the above mentioned category, please do not register an account with us.
We apologize for inconvenience caused.

sinip
Fortunately LR is not in USA like e-gold but the situation is still very unclear at the moment. And if the site gets back online then the people who have accounts in LR might be asked to provide documents verifying that they are who they claim they are, so the people who opened the accounts under fake names might get in problems. But it is still too early to say what’s going to happen. Lets wait and see. Fortunately I had only around $90 in it but if LR goes down permanently it will be big hit to online moneymaking activities. I saw e-gold being shut down and then LR simply took over, but we’ll see what happens this time.

Ixid
Fortunately LR is not in USA like e-gold
Unfortunately, imho no matter where the company is registered or where the server is located. US and CR, ES, etc. have international agreements regarding money laundering… so that’s all folks.

sinip
Which again doesn’t mean that all of your money can be stolen just like that by a Government. But then again…

hamzakhankhan
the same thing happened in 2009.and after some days the site recover.what do u guys thing this time lr is permanently gone…

riddick09
Perhaps, the site is down for unscheduled maintenance. I have read the article but I don’t feel yet that it’s really legit information. Why the LR blog is up and the website of LR is down, only I can think of it as maintenance.

http://blog.libertyreserve.com/

And it’s weekend that’s usually LR has their scheduled/unscheduled maintenance. Okay, I will just wait and see…

sinip
Yes I know, there are people who will be hit really really hard, if LR really goes down for good. If that happens the only secure e-currency will be the one that USA can’t get the hold of, like Webmoney (Russia based) or Bitcoin. …

sinip
And the update about LR is that both the main site and blog don’t load any longer from here. Time to go to sleep, let’s see what will happen in the morning…

bulastika
Darn. I’m trying to transfer my earnings from LR to paypal for the last few months already. I already feel this going to come to me right now. I do hope that LR will recover but its seems the end. Now my concern what will happen to industries like hyip sites, ptp forums and forex sites that use LR for payments. I guess its the end of my online earnings also…

investor999
Now with this disturbing piece of news I am worried how we are going to start afresh with other alternatives when working with a lot of sites that do prefer LR///now the question is which other site is going to replace the LR …People also lost a lot of money because of this sudden development are we going to get back our balances with LR any methods/.
—
Sinip, same here. On yesterday, LR blog site working finely on my side but today both main and blog are not accessible. I think, its one of the toughest time for all of us who are having huge funds in LR.
@sinip
Did WMZ are charging any fees for internal transfer in account. And I think, GT forum may start using WMZ payment processor, if this issue not resolved. what is this WMZ? is it available world wide and accepted by exchange sites.. if our GT pays through paypal that will be the most welcome thing//…

Joycezhu
I still have $368 in Lr account after read news about athur owner of Liberty reserve is arrested, it make me down. But today I read if admin’s of lr is “Allan Garcia”. It make me feel some hope if Lr will back soon. Some of them said that Lr just changing their server, some of them said Lr get hacked. It really make me confused. Can’t understand why Lr staff don’t give us reason why their website is down…

DCodeMaster
Webmoney in its ToS has the section regarding money laundering, but one way or another any US request to shut down Russia based payment processor would be ROFL’ed really really loud. Regarding Bitcoin, it is decentralised so noone can shut it down, like noone can shut down Internet.
Actually I meant if it’s not licensed, Russia can shut it down too (and it’s not clearly stated in the TOS if they have license). So, it doesn’t solve a problem, and bitcoin is risky because it’s extremely volatile!
Probably LR is not coming back and HYIP industry needs an immediate alternative of it. An alternative which is almost similar like LR. So… PM, right? :angel:…

sinip
Somehow i still want to hang on…., the govshould not punish innocent fellows just like this.
I still can never understand “Who has LR as a company scammed that will make them this angry” Each individual account holder should be held responsible for his/her transactions and no one forces you to do anything with your own money. Thus, coming to do this, if it’s reaaly true, means GOVERNMENT robbing innocent souls of their earning and God above will judge them for that! Well, USA Government doesn’t like one single bit any legal entity that does money operations, which it can’t control. On top of that, it couldn’t care less that you, me or any other have lost the money in it. BTW, e-gold “went down” something like 5 years ago and only now it looks like that the account owners will be able to get their money locked in it. Maybe. So don’t count on US Government (or any other government, for that matter) having simptathy for a common person…

sinip
There might be refunds but…
- You will have to wait until legal proceedings are completely over and done with
- Then a body will be appointed to take care of LR, unless LR is only a collateral damage in the USA attempt to get the hold of the owner
- Then you’ll have to verify your account(s) and if you have some of them opened under fake name then…
So, there’s long road ahead.

(See here and here)

Since Vanity Fair and Salon have both criticized the currency, not putting it into context and Wired Magazine even said: “Although the service had legitimate customers, the anonymity it provided attracted a large clientele from the criminal underground,” here’s some comments on twitter in response to the ending of Liberty Reserve:

I couldn’t find any other views on the subject, and there is something even more troubling is that the money laundering section of the USA Patriot Act was used against the site. From what I’ve read it seems clear that the site was used by numerous cybercriminals, but that this attack is part of a broader offensive against virtual decentralized currencies making it in a sense a resistance against the global banking system and central banks, whatever you think of them. This is what worries me. As thousands of sites have been seized, authorities are trying to rein in a free, open and unruly internet. If it had been a too-big-to-fail bank they wouldn’t have given a flying fuck, but since its a small fringe group it threatens them more. A graphic snapped from a show on RT gives some perspective. Whether we have bitcoins or not, we should all take heed because this relates to our future online.

BJACTOTL:IND – Bank of Japan Total Assets

EBBSLONG:IND – European Central Bank Balance Sheet Long Term Refinancing Operations

By Steven J. Grisafi, PhD.
DATA COMPILED ON A ROLLING TEN BUSINESS DAYS BASIS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS ISOSURFACE
CONTOUR VALUE OF THE ISOSURFACE IS ZERO

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE DIVIDED BY PRODUCT DOMINANT EIGENVALUE AND SEVENTH ROOT DETERMINANT

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS TRAJECTORY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND POTENTIAL TOPOGRAPHY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE MINUS DOMINANT EIGENVALUE DIVIDED BY DOMINANT EIGENVALUE

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE COMPLEMENTARY FUNCTIONS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL FLUX RATIO

FIGURES ARE GIF ANIMATIONS.

BJACTOTL:IND – Bank of Japan Total Assets

EBBSLONG:IND – European Central Bank Balance Sheet Long Term Refinancing Operations

By Steven J. Grisafi, PhD.
DATA COMPILED ON A ROLLING TEN BUSINESS DAYS BASIS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS ISOSURFACE
CONTOUR VALUE OF THE ISOSURFACE IS ZERO

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE DIVIDED BY PRODUCT DOMINANT EIGENVALUE AND SEVENTH ROOT DETERMINANT

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ASSETS TRAJECTORY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND POTENTIAL TOPOGRAPHY

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND COEFFICIENTS EIGENVALUES MINOR MODES RATIO
TRACE MINUS DOMINANT EIGENVALUE DIVIDED BY DOMINANT EIGENVALUE

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE COMPLEMENTARY FUNCTIONS

BJACTOTL:IND vs. EBBSLONG:IND ISOSURFACE POTENTIAL FLUX RATIO

FIGURES ARE GIF ANIMATIONS.

Central Banks Hoarding Gold as Price Corrects

Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan were among the central banks buying gold in April, despite the metal’s price fall, to diversify their strategic portfolio. Read more Central banks are continuing to diversify into gold due to significant systemic and monetary risk and many will use the recent price weakness as an opportunity to diversify into gold at cheaper prices. The Deputy Governor of the South African central bank, South African Reserve Bank, Daniel Mminele, said yesterday that central banks are “buying bullion” “as prices fall” to reach a 10% ratio of overall foreign exchange reserves – according to Bloomberg. The South African Reserve Bank said it’s “comfortable” with its holdings of gold and doesn’t have plans to boost gold reserves because they already make up about 10% of foreign reserves. South Africa’s central bank holds four million ounces of gold bullion. Read more

Unprecedented U.S. Mint Sales

The U.S. Mint sold 209,500 ounces of coins last month, compared with 62,000 ounces in March, its website show. Sales totaled 52,000 ounces so far this month. Central banks also may help boost demand for bullion as they expand reserves. Nations from Brazil to Russia added 534.6 tons last year, the most since 1964, and may buy 450 to 550 tons this year, according to the World Gold Council in London.

The unprecedented money printing by central banks has helped send U.S. equities to records while failing to spur inflation. Expectations for increases in consumer prices, as measured by the break-even rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, fell 8.5 percent this year, reaching a nine-month low yesterday.

Inflation or Deflation in the Economy & Effect on Gold Prices

The article notes German finance mininster Wolfgang Schaeuble has suddenly become a champion of growth. “We need more investment, and we need more programs,” Spiegel quotes Schaeuble after a meeting with Portuguese finance minister Vitor Gaspar.

The article notes under the Berlin plan, the German government-owned KfW development bank, would issue a so-called ‘global loan’ to its Spanish sister bank, the ICO, and these funds would then enable the Spanish development bank to offer lower-interest loans to domestic companies.

Logo of the United States White House, especially in conjunction with offices like the Chief of Staff and Press Secretary. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

On May 14, as Washington officialdom was transfixed by the IRS scandal, the Congressional Budget Office announced that the budget deficit will shrink this fiscal year to $642 billion, or just 4 percent of gross domestic product. It’s the smallest deficit since 2008, and less than half 2009’s record $1.4 trillion shortfall. Since February, the CBO has cut $200 billion off its deficit projection for 2013 and $618 billion off its cumulative estimate for the next decade. Thanks to higher tax revenues and deep spending cuts, the deficit has been shrinking by about $42 billion a month for the past six months. The CBO projects that the deficit will fall to $342 billion by 2015, or only 2 percent of GDP.

Even so, the country’s improving finances haven’t lowered the din of partisan bickering over U.S. fiscal policy. Keynesian economists say that the deficit is narrowing too quickly, curtailing growth and threatening to derail an economy that grew a tepid 2.5 percent in the first quarter. Republican deficit hawks are unimpressed by the short-term reductions and want more cuts to head off exploding long-term debt driven by rising spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

“I must have missed the Kool-Aid,” says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former CBO director who served as John McCain’s chief economic adviser during the 2008 presidential campaign. To Holtz-Eakin, a deficit that’s 4 percent of GDP isn’t worth bragging about. Plus, the short-term reductions are mostly from technical revisions such as tax code changes and a $95 billion, one-time payment from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The long-term situation is still scary, he says.

As millions of baby boomers retire, entitlement spending will start eating up government funds. Unless those programs are reined in, the CBO projects the budget deficit will start to rise again in 2016 and hit $895 billion by 2023. Also, today’s low interest rates, which allow the government to sell 10-year Treasury bonds below 2 percent, won’t last forever. The CBO projects that by 2023, annual interest payments on the country’s debt will nearly quadruple, to $823 billion. A new plan being floated by über-austerians Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, co-chairs of President Obama’s 2010 debt commission, calls for replacing the $85 billion in cuts from the sequester with $2.5 trillion in additional deficit reduction, including $220 billion in defense cuts and $585 billion in health-care savings through reforms to Medicare over the next 10 years.

Doves say that’s overkill given that the government is already shrinking faster than at any time since the post-World War II military demobilization. “The patient is checking out of the hospital, and the doctors are still planning surgery,” says Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Vice President Joe Biden’s former chief economist. Echoing a warning the International Monetary Fund issued last summer, Bernstein is concerned the deficit is contracting too fast from all the spending cuts enacted since 2010, including the $1 trillion in cuts President Obama agreed to in 2011. That’s stymied growth. In 8 of the last 10 quarters, the federal government has been a drag on the economy, subtracting 3.25 percentage points from GDP since the fourth quarter of 2010. “We’ve overfocused on the deficit,” Bernstein says. “It’s time to tackle the jobs crisis.”

According to the CBO, the economy is operating 6 percent below its potential, a difference of about $1 trillion this year. For every dollar the economy runs below its optimal level, the deficit rises by 37¢ due to cyclical factors such as lower tax receipts, says Andrew Fieldhouse, a budget policy analyst at the Economic Policy Institute. That’s what’s happened in Europe, where austerity has boosted debt-to-GDP ratios by about 5 percent. “Fiscal stimulus right now would decrease debt to GDP,” Fieldhouse says.

Not everyone thinks Medicare is doomed. Based on lower growth rates in health-care costs since 2010, the CBO cut its estimate for Medicare and Medicaid spending by $162 billion over the next decade. That could change, however, when Obamacare and potentially higher policy premiums go into full effect.

One thing the dip in the deficit has changed is the urgency to reach a deal on long-term debt reduction. Continued gridlock might not be so bad. “The last thing we want is some grand bargain,” says James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. He argues that as long as the economy keeps growing, the deficit will continue to trend lower: “Who would you rather put in charge of fixing the country’s finances: Congress or the invisible hand of Adam Smith?”

The bottom line: The federal deficit will shrink to $642 billion in 2013, or 4 percent of GDP, less than half the $1.4 trillion shortfall in 2009.

Related articles

• Don’t Get Too Excited About the New, Smaller Deficit – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• CBO cut its deficit projection by $200 billion (dailykos.com)

I read more than 200 articles a month to keep up with our deteriorating global economic situation and summarize pertinent points for my own blog posts. Every so often I find an article so broad-ranging yet concise and hard-hitting that I wouldn’t dare try to summarize it. Below is one. I’ve reprinted Stephen Lendman’s latest commentary in its entirety.

I did not write the article below so all credit belongs to Stephen. I merely recognize his insight.

Gerold
May 26, 2013

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Disconnect: Soaring Markets/Troubled Economies

Stephen Lendman

HoweStreet.com

Sunday, May 19th, 2013

Forget everything you learned about markets, economics and finance. Perhaps Newton, Galileo, Copernicus, Darwin, Freud, Einstein, and other noted figures were wrong.

Central banks run today’s world. Major ones matter most. Money printing madness controls everything. Love doesn’t make the world go round. Liquidity-driven markets reflect the power of bankers to do it.

They’re more powerful than standing armies. They can levitate markets. They can enrich themselves at the same time.

They can do it while economies crater. The power of massive liquidity infusions combined with market manipulation generates huge profits.

What can’t go on forever, won’t. What’s going on now defies reason. Disconnect barely explains it. US equity markets hit record highs. So did Germany’s DAX. Japan’s Nikkei reached a five and a half year high.

One recent headline read “Central banks pop champagne corks as stock markets soar.” Another said “Which European Market Will Hit a Record High Next?”

Turkey’s BIST-100 topped 91,000 for the first time. Switzerland’s SMI has a ways to go. It’s headed in the right direction. Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 and the OMX Nordic are closer.

London’s FTSE 100 looks poised for a record high. It could do so in weeks. Who said defying gravity’s impossible? Markets are doing it with ease.

Record valuations bear no relation to economic reality. Today’s disconnect is unprecedented. Paul Craig Roberts expects an eventual triple bubble explosion.

On the one hand, he says “rich elites are stealing everything for themselves.” At the same time, he cites “three of the biggest bubbles in history.”

“The bond market, stock market and the US dollar” are levitating. (S)omething is going to go. This is possibly one of the riskiest years in Western civilization.”

Combined with police state enforcement and imperial wars, it’s menacing.

Australian economist Steve Keen‘s Debtwatch web site “analyses the collapse of the global debt bubble.” He calls America’s stock market a giant one. It’s debt-fueled. Margin debt levels match 2000 and late 2007 highs, he says.

“Nothing can accelerate forever. At some point the acceleration stops, and when it does the market breaks.”

He believes trouble’s coming in one or two years. He thinks America’s stock market will burst the way Japan’s did in the early 1990s.

The key Nikkei Index peaked near 39,000. It did so on 1989′s last trading day. It fell 63% in less than three years. Rolling recessions and recoveries followed. It didn’t bottom until February 2009. It closed at 7,163. On May 17, it closed at 15,138.

According to Keen:

“I think we’re (heading for) a long slow bleed, much longer and slower than the Japanese stock market crash. The dynamics are similar.”

“In 500 years time,” he added, “people will look back and see this as the biggest debt-financed bubble in human history and ask, ‘why didn’t we realize it?’ ”

Bruce Krasting worked on Wall Street for 25 years. He’s no longer there. His blog site discusses financial issues. He calls Bernanke’s policy “reckless endangerment.”

He claims he can cease QE with no ill consequences. “It’s never been done before. Not by the Fed. Not by any Central Bank.”

“To think that such a daunting task can be accomplished without negative consequences is foolish,” said Krasting.

PIMCO’s Bill Gross sees bubbles everywhere. It doesn’t mean they’ll pop immediately.

Speculators assume Fed policy will remain accommodative “over the long-term and under the assumption that the US economy is doing better than most economies.”

Lots of money is chasing lots of risk, says Gross. Central banks are “blowing bubbles. When that stops, there will be repercussions. Not just in the bond market but in the stock market as well and a developing one in the hous(ing) market.”

Gross warned that the multi-decade US bond bull market ended. Higher interest rates will eventually follow.

A 1% rise means over $100 billion in more interest. It’s negative for economic growth. Most developed countries have debt to GDP ratios above 100%.

They’re manageable with record low interest rates. Higher ones risk default in troubled economies. European PIIGS countries are most vulnerable (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain).

Marc Faber warns that “something will break very badly.”

“In the 40 years I’ve been working as an economist and investor, I have never seen such a disconnect between the asset market and the economic reality.”

“Asset markets are in the sky and the economy of the ordinary people is in the dumps, where their real incomes adjusted for inflation are going down and asset markets are going up.”

Graham Summers warns “It’s official: Stocks are in a bubble.” It’s worse than anything he’s seen in his career.

Stocks rallied every Tuesday for 17 straight weeks. Traders “are now conditioned to play for this move.”

It’s “POMO day.” [Gerold note: POMO is short for Permanent Open Market Operations where the Federal Reserve manipulates the stock market.] The Fed pumps markets with liquidity. Doing so drives stocks higher.

“The market is beyond overstretched. We have not had a 5% correction in six months. Stocks have gone almost straight up for 89 days (we haven’t had a 3+day correction in that long).”

“This is an all time record. The last time stocks rallied without a 3+ day correction was in the buildup to the Crash of 1987.”

“Copper is great at predicting economic growth.” It’s trending lower. Stocks are poor predictors. Major divergences between them will be resolved sharply.

Rampant insider selling continues. Stocks are disconnected from reality. They’re “totally out of control.” Most days hit record highs. It’s unprecedented.

“At this point, no long term investor in their right mind should be buying. This is especially true given that the S&P 500 is now not only totally disconnected from economic reality, but is disconnected from every other asset class.”

Stocks diverged from bonds, gold, copper and oil. They’re last to react. “This bubble will end as all bubbles do: in disaster.”

Main street conditions are worse than during the Great Depression. Europe’s as disconnected as America. More on that below.

Paul Craig Roberts calls offshoring US jobs a greater threat than terrorism. It’s been ongoing for years. It’s most felt when jobs are scarce. Good ones are fast disappearing.

Politicians remain in denial. Millions more jobs remain vulnerable. Displaced employees “left unemployed or in lower paid work have a reduced presence in the consumer market.”

Outsourcing jobs erodes US economic strength. China, India, Brazil and other developing countries gain at America’s expense.

Instead of using the nation’s resources for economic growth, Washington prioritizes militarism, permanent wars, and corporate giants’ interests at the expense of ordinary people.

It’s madness. It’s self-destructive. It sacrifices longterm economic health for short and intermediate term gains.

WW III already started. So far, it’s unlike WW I and II. It’s international, unconventional, asymmetric, disruptive, anti-democratic, lawless, low to higher intensity, political, psychological and financial.

Financial schemes involve:

massive wealth transfers from ordinary people to corporate giants and super-rich elites;

bail in confiscation of assets;

lawless sanctions, embargoes and blockades;

schemes to control natural resources, trade and money;

entrapping nations in unrepayable debt;

manufacturing financial crises, and more.

On May 16, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) headlined “Systemic crisis 2013: with record exchange highs, the planet’s imminent plunge into recession.”

Prevailing calm is deceptive. It often precedes the storm. “(S)everal signals show that a reversal in the economic situation is imminent.” Economies never recovered from 2008. Conditions continue to deteriorate. Europe’s in recession. More on that below. China’s growth is slowing. It exports are declining.

Australia’s export dependent economy makes it a good indicator. It’s “struggling. Consumers are also marking time. US wholesale and retail sales are on the decline.”

Most “US benchmark indices are swinging into the red.” Major banks know a storm looms. They’re using “all the means at their disposal (legal and illegal) to shelter themselves.”

BRICS countries are some of the world’s fastest growing. They have their own strategy. They’re gradually moving away from the dollar.

They’re “building a (multipolar) world system where they would have greater representation.” They’re doing so at the expense of America and other Western countries.

America’s economy is troubled. Four years of QE haven’t worked. Pushing on a string defines Fed policy. Money sits on bank balance sheets as excess reserves. Credit expansion’s anemic. Manufacturing’s contracting. Fiscal tightening exacerbates things.

Europe’s in recession. Southern Europe’s in Depression. Eurozone economic data are negative. In Q I, Italy contracted 0.5% from the previous quarter.

Seven straight quarterly declines reflect its troubled economy. It’s been so longterm. From 2000 – 2010, it expanded an anemic 2.5%. The current trend is negative. Protracted decline appears likely.

It’s not alone. ECB policy hasn’t worked. Mario Monti’s no more effective than Bernanke. Markets are disconnected from economic reality.

The Eurozone’s in recession. Nine of its 17 countries have negative growth. They include Italy, France, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Portugal, Belgium, Finland and the Netherlands.

So do EU members Hungary and the Czech Republic. Expect more to follow.
Slovenia’s deeply troubled. It looks like the next Cyprus. Britain teeters on recession. So does Germany. Monetary madness achieved little. Force-fed austerity is self-defeating.

Confiscating bank deposits is the new normal. It’s a diabolical plot. It’s consolidating financial power. It’s price is economic decline. Equities are the last asset class to react. When it does, watch out.

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Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at
lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net

His new book is titled “Banker Occupation: Waging Financial War on Humanity.”
http://www.claritypress.com/LendmanII.html

Visit his blog site at WWW.sjlendman.blogspot.com

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That is me.

I like to think that there is someone out there who will light the beacon for me in investing and that I will follow it and become rich before anybody else…..errrhhh

It is easy to “think not” because it it the bankers’ and analysts’ jobs and they cannot be wrong. And the easier it is to think not when we have gods in the marketplace who makes sure that every ending is a happy one.

When we are faced with the situation above, why think ? There is a backstop.

So what happened last week ?

The gamblers struck. Think of it this way.

“Wall Street has no moral conscience. No public values. Zero. Will never change. Why? Wall Street insiders have one goal: get personally rich.”

“behavioral science is not complicated. And the DNA guiding Wall Street’s brain is simple: Markets go up. Markets go down. Their DNA loves the action. And they know how to get rich in markets, up and down. Yes, the casino makes money skimming a third off the top … on the way up, and on the way down. “

It is all irrational.

And Nobel Economics Prize winner Daniel Kahneman has some interesting points to make about our human psyche.

“Because if you could pick stocks very well, then other people would also be picking those stocks, so the advantage would be gone. So everybody realizes that in principle, it’s impossible. But everybody personally thinks they can do it….. people feel that they can do things that, in fact, we know and they should know they can’t do.” Source : FORBES

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted that his capitalist ideology had failed America: “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity.”

WHEN WILL STOCKS CORRECT ?

July – Aug ? But this is not because of the CLSA FengShui Index ! Not because of Jackson Hole where Greenspan gave his famous assessment back in 2005. Not because Germany will have their elections which will more or less determine the fate of the eurozone.

My main premise, as I was describing to a friend who runs a family office here over coffee, is that old habits die hard and when we have seen such a hard and fast rally as we have in the past 5 months, it takes a big slap in the face for a pull back.

That slap in the face will come when we have the 2Q advance GDP estimates that will come to prove the worsening PMIs that we are seeing. Yet the major risk is that all the economists whose estimates we will rely upon will revise their numbers down which is counter intuitive to valuation levels. Valuation levels which are based upon expectations of liquidity and low yields. One big self perpetuating cycle.

So I say July ? and until then, I will not be expecting a rally because last week was an eye opener to the dominoes that will come crashing down and once bitten, twice shy. And I am still a trader at heart and I worked in a bank before, and most of the time, I was wondering if people actually believed in the stuff I said.

Leaving you with some food for thought.

“Unless we have a deep understanding of the truth of our nature and how we create our reality we will continue to fall pray to outdated ideas of what it means to be a successful valuable human being in society. We will continue to be clones of collective beliefs based on false premises of our reality. ” The Buddhist Trader

Lesson : Stick to your feeling of what is right or wrong.

“Chances are, if you ask George Soros why he did what he did on any given transaction, he will give you some logical-sounding explanations, and these explanations will probably make sense to you.  However, you get a totally different sense of the situation if you listen to his son describe how things happened: “My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that.  But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, At least half of this is bull.  I mean, you know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him.  He literally goes into a spasm, and it’s this early warning sign.“” Proactivechange.com

Lesson : Markets can crash when someone gets a stomach ache ? Or when Bernanke has a bad hair day ? It is irrational.

The latest inflation figures for Canada greatly alarm me. This year we’ve reached lows unseen in the past few years, and though this has happened before, these figures just seem so much more ominous under the current economic conditions than they did in the ’90s. The latest fluctuation was caused by a drop in oil prices, but it’s the second month this year that inflation has dropped substantially below the 1% lower limit. It is becoming clear that low interest rates are becoming more ineffective the longer they are kept down. I am NOT implying that the solution is to raise them, rather I am wondering what good a mandate is if the central bank no longer has the tools to carry it out?

The deflationary saga is one familiar to Japan, which has been experiencing the frustrations borne in part by loose monetary policy rendered ineffective by overuse. The US is faring slightly better:

…but is following a trajectory similar to that of Canada. I presume that the Fed would prefer a slightly higher rate–1.1% is lower than it’s been in recent years and the QE continues, albeit amid rumours that it will be tapered off at the end of the summer.

And how is the Fed doing in its quest for full employment?

Not too bad, I suppose. Unemployment is sitting at 7.5%, which is certainly an improvement from the 10% seen in the aftermath of the recession. But it is still too high for the Fed to claim that it has effectively carried out its mandate. Loose monetary policy is supposed to lower unemployment and increase inflation, but it has done neither. The reasons for this are many, as discussed in my groundbreaking magnum opus on “Trekonomics,” but for my purposes right now the reasons aren’t important. What is important is that the Fed is less effective than ever before in carrying out its mandate. It’s not that it’s doing a bad job, it’s simply that the economy has adapted to loose monetary policy in much the same way that the Borg adapt to the frequency of phasers used against them. (Oh geez, the Borg could represent so much in economics. I’m saving this.)

As the chart clearly shows, unemployment rose after the recession caused by the bursting of the dot-com bubble, but declined steadily afterwards due in part to measures taken by the Fed. We can see a comparable decline in unemployment after the Great Recession, also partly due to the actions of the Fed. However, unemployment rose so sharply between 2008 and 2010 that, even though the Fed was able to adjust the unemployment rate by the same amount as it did in the years after the dot-com bubble burst, it has not been enough to get the rate down anywhere near what it was before the recession. So a central bank’s power is limited, which is unsurprising to everyone except, perhaps, Alan Greenspan, (former) Master of the Universe. The powers of central banks are feeling a little too limited lately, however, which in itself is not a problem if governments are prepared to pick up the slack. Unfortunately, what seems to be happening is that central banks are being charged with the tasks of creating economic activity and keeping unemployment down without being given the tools necessary to do so. The mandate is beginning to look like a way for governments to shirk responsibility for these things, while central bankers’ every move comes under unprecedented scrutiny.

A central banker can only react to events such as a housing crash or a drop in oil prices. It is the government’s job to ensure that the economic well-being of its country is not dependent on just one industry. It should accomplish this through regulation and diversification of industry. Oil is a volatile thing to be hinging our entire economy onto, and even if it weren’t, no country should be so dependent on any one resource that its inflation rate tracks price fluctuations of that resource, as Canada’s does.

So now my question is: what good is a mandate? While it’s admirable for people, androids, and institutions to aspire to be more than they are, the refusal to innovate justified by unrealistic expectations is inexcusable. It is realistic to expect that monetary easing will have a measurable effect on unemployment and inflation; it is not reasonable to expect that it will have a greater effect than ever before just because we need it to.