On two counts – oil and gas moved my way, and I had 13 Scouts jammed into my living room for “German Night”.

Natural gas had a big day, moving up 40 cents.  The double-long ETF HNU was up 14.5% just todayand I sold a small amount – I have lots left if this is the start of another rally.  I held my nose and went more long crude oil by covering some of the double-long short ETF HOD and buying more of the long ETF HOU.  That worked out as well today, but I’ve got to tell you, I’m really bearish on oil (although that doesn’t necessarily mean I’m right).  I’ll be happier if we can get another profit or two out of the long side and then get more short.

I took a signal to buy DAG, the double-long agricultural commodities ETF, bulking up that position a little as well.

A couple of days ago my natural gas position was down 28%, today it’s down only 6.9%.  And I nicked my last and largest buy a dime off the bottom at $8.60.  I fortuitously piled in right at the bottom the last time around as well in September, and that had a lot to do with the robust recovery of the account.  Another rally like the September one and this gas trade, and the portfolio, will quickly become very profitable.   Now if I could only nick the tops.

As it stands the commodity ETF portfolio has held up very well through NG’s decline from $17 to $8.50.  I am extremely pleased with the adjustments I made to the program a while back, as it’s defensiveness has improved significantly.  If not for the algorithm mistake in the first month (started back in late June), that built up early losses, I’d be ahead by now.  I’ve been doing a lot of testing in the past couple of weeks, and my goal of successfully emulating a market-maker operation is within sight.  I have two main approaches, and variations of each are all very profitable in testing.  However one is a little less profitable but plays much better defence, and is therefore safer.  This is the current C-ETF program with a modified trade-sizing algorithm.  It can survive most of the huge declines like we saw in 2008 and early 2009, but not quite total implosions like the oil collapse of 2008 or the catastrophic losses on the more aggressive leveraged short ETFs.  Therefore diversification (and not starting the long side when oil is at $150 or gold at $1200) is still important.

The new system I’m just simply going to call PRES – Progressive REversal Scaling.  It systematically provides entry and exit set-ups and signals, and trade sizing.  It works best with more volatile stocks and ETFs, and the more sideways/range-bound the action the better.    But it still works with trending markets as long as there is some jiggle to them along the way.

“German Night” was fun.  It was at my house but hosted by Scout Alexander C, who lived in Berlin for a year before his family returned to Canada and he re-joined our troop again last year.  I cooked up some bratwursts on the barbecue that we then planted in mini-buns, to do it the German way, and Alexander’s mother Mary brought absolutely delicious home-made pretzels and potato salad.  Scouter Steve brought root beer (we can’t do the real thing with 11-13 year-olds) and collectively we scrounged enough beer steins to at least make it all look Bavarian.  I also put on some alpine/polka music for a while, and then a travel video on the region where the Mosul and Rhine rivers meet.  Alexander did a very concise and interesting presentation on the history of Germany, and brought all sorts of interesting artifacts and souvenirs, including million-mark notes of the great inflation of the 1920’s, Nazi Reichmarks, and pieces of the Berlin wall.   He even wore lederhosen, but these were apparently problematic in bathroom situations, and Alexander was pretty-much dancing back and forth as he was waiting for his mother to pick him up at the end of the night.

And until the next time …

Prosit!
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

Nature’s Rage

“Abuse God, He’ll always forgive,

But abuse nature, it will never forgive”.

It’s the most abhorrent first time in the country’s history of calamity, a tropical storm brought a devastating and enormous flood dipping many places like Metro Manila, Pampanga, Cainta, et al. The nation succumbed on the flash flood happened last September 26, 2009, Saturaday. Just 9 hours of nonstop downpour was enough to equate a month-long rain (410 mm rain gauge range, which was even higher than the normal rain gauge range). Due to the incident, it must be cursed by many for the ruin it brought, tremendously.

Undeniably, tropical storm Ondoy and the flash flood it brought seem as a sample of the perfect “Destroyers and Assassins”. They are envoys of destruction and death – destroying voluminous properties, taking 300 lives, and leaving numerous individuals homeless. What must be the message of these calamities?

Although we grieve from such tragedy, it’s not an excuse for us to ignore the lessons behind it. Really, experiencing such is detestable and once again, proved that experience is a harsh teacher…it gives the test first before the lesson. I’m sure, we learned a lot from Ondoy.

Why the killer flood happened is an indication of mankind’s negligence. An end justifies the means an action employed; therefore, anything we do has its connection to the outcome. It’s safe to say that we are the cause of the killer flood. Man made the massive pollution causing the world’s threatening “global warming” which contributes to the climate change and the deterioration of the ozone layer.

Mother Earth perhaps is calling for us. Let’s get hand in hand saving the Earth from destruction. Let’s go back to the basic – plant more trees, dispose garbage properly and let’s eliminate burning too much fossil fuel that contributes to the pollution of our land, water/marine and air biodiversity.

We can’t resist from the changing climate as well the uprising calamities, but we can resist wasting lives and properties by ensuring preparedness and safety. Let’s adopt the Boy Scout’s motto: “Be Prepared”. Preparedness won’t make us futile and cry over a spilled milk. The positive side of the tragedy is that it brought us lessons that we must not be too reluctant and numb of what our surrounding needs…it’s an eye-opener for us to perform our duties towards the nature with dedication. And due to the rage, it surfaced many heroic Filipinos who helped willingly their fellows who’re in dire need to save their lives. Some heroic fellows even paid life just so save the rest…flagging the sacred sacrifice, giving their life in exchange other’s safety. The spirit of sharing, concern, help, love and care flourished… awakening everyone the virtue of “Bayanihan”.

A calamity unexpected brings a grotesque disaster but a calamity being prepared brings less ruin and grief. So, when nature’s rage strikes, behold to its possible lessons it may bring which will serve as the mirror to check out what’s lacking in our part. Wait not for another disaster, life is too short to waste on insignificant things…your belongings; your loved ones and your life can be lost in a blink of an eye when you’re hit by nature’s rage.

One major perk of writing a mommyhood blog is that when my boys are acting completely out of control, I know I will have some good material. It doesn’t necessarily help in the heat of the moment but it does give me a slight, intellectual step back from the insanity. That can be helpful. Especially for a late afternoon like the one we had.

Frick and I had a relatively uneventful day. He took an extremely long nap which could mean one of two things: the heavens were smiling on me or he is coming down with something. Either way I didn’t question my good fortune, I enjoyed my break and felt refreshed as we headed to get Frack from school.

Pick up was fairly normal until we came back out to the lobby. There was a folding table off to the left that had the final product of the boys’ recent school portraits. Of course I didn’t have my wallet and today was the last day I could purchase them (yes, I let that one slip right by me). So, I’m standing there feeling the pressure. I want to make a quick decision and then in all likelihood run home (which is only couple miles away) and return with my wallet in hand. I stumble upon two obstacles. The first is that my children are fantastically photogenic (no bias on my part of course) so their pictures are adorable. We just had a family sitting that was the bomb, too. How can I justify buying more photos of these guys? Shouldn’t I at least run this by Mad Dog?

The second hurdle is, well, you know my boys. It gets to the point that I can’t even think straight. Frick and Frack are running around and start beating on each other. Soon one is crawling over a chair about to leap and the other is on his heels. The energy level in the small, confined space of the lobby is reaching a fever pitch. I make a hasty apology to the picture people and promise my return. I grab the boys, head to the truck and it goes from bad to worse.

Little brother Frick is feeling sassy. He tells his brother there are ‘no pictures’ at all of Frack. This hurts Frack’s feelings and he melts down screaming. He can’t believe little Frick would say such a thing. I strap them both in and before you know it, Frack is whaling on his little brother like there is no tomorrow. At this point I have Mad Dog on the phone to explain the picture dilemma but I can barely hear him over the hysteria. They are screaming in stereo.

I say, “Could you hold on for a moment?” into the phone and proceed to threaten them. “The next person that speaks will immediately go to their room when we get home!” It works enough that I can get us home with a tenuous air of peace in the truck. They know I’m serious.

When I pull in the driveway and take the keys from the ignition I slowly and deliberately turn around. “I’m glad you were able to be quiet for the remainder of the ride home. However, your behavior in the lobby was unacceptable. You do not behave that way. You show respect for each other and listen to what your Mom says.” I feel very confident I have turned a horrible episode into a watershed, teachable moment. My boys have learned their behavioral lesson.

Big brother Frack looks dubious. I sit back and wait for his contrition. Instead all I get is, “Mom, what’s a lobby?”

Oh well, maybe they’ll learn something next time because we all know, there always is a next time with these two guys.

But thats OK! Rainy days can be productive days a chance to catch up on those small tasks that need doing or a chance after work to care for yourself. Take time for yourself today not going and doing but just being comfortable with yourself. Ask how you are doing, feeling whats been on your mind lately. As the holidays approach chaos will set in stress will follow. Perhaps now is a good time to set up a game plan! Take a me day it does not mean you neglect your tasks that have to be done it just means you consider yourself a little extra!

Manche Tage sind vom Chaotenfaktor nicht zu toppen. Dabei war es gar nicht mal so dramatisch gestern. Weder vom Stress noch vom Theater oder gar Drama. Eigentlich alles ganz wunderbar. Reisplanung. Ticketorganisation für Veranstaltungen. Nur wollte mein Kopf wohl einfach nicht so wie ich.

Erster Akt: Die Sporttickets
“Hey cool, ich kriege Tickets für die Veranstalung X oder Y, welche soll ich besorgen?”
“Gerne die für X.”
Madame Mimm rennt los und holt Karten.
“Juhu, ich habe die Karten! Für Y! Mit allem drum und dran. Sogar Parktickets! *keksfreu*”
“Öhm, ja klasse, aber wollten wir nicht die für X?”
Blutsturz.
“Shit! Verdammich!”
Lies sich zum Glück noch deichseln. Wäre ja gelacht. Trotzdem unnötiges Deppentum.

Zweiter Akt: Das Reisedatum
“Ich schau dann mal nach Flügen, ok? Also da wäre was günstiges von Flughafen A oder B. Tut sich im Grunde nicht viel. Schau mal hier: Anhang Flugdaten vom 2. – 4. April.“
“Öhm, ja klasse, aber bleiben wir nicht bis zum 5.?”
“Oh. Moment. Ich scanne. Hier guck! Tut sich nicht viel.”
Schicke Anhang mit Daten bis zum 6. Komme aber selber drauf.
“Weißt Du was? Morgen ist auch noch ein Tag. Vielleicht schaffe ich es dann mal korrekt.”
“Super-Idee.”

Dritter Akt: Das Telefonat
“Ok, ich komm vorbei und ruf Dich kurz an, wenn ich da bin!”
Telefonat:
“Huch, sorry, dich wollte ich gar nicht anrufen. Aber schön Dich zu hören! Haha. *hüstel* Also ich steh grade bei ‘ner Freundin vor der Tür und finde heute nicht mal mehr die richtige Telefonnumer. Manmanman. Oh what a day. Also nichts für ungut!”
*inslenkradbeiss*

Jesus. Also manche Tage sind nicht für Planung und Kommunikation gemacht. Ich hoffe schwer auf Besserung.

Some people have form but no content. Others have content, but no form.

At this point in my life, I fall into the latter camp.

I wasn’t always this way. When I was younger I was the exact opposite. Creative patterns blossomed forth from me, almost of their own accord. Looking back now, they were pretty meaningless, these patterns, but it was joyful to make them and I was happy doing it.

Somewhere along the way my situation reversed.

This blog is an attempt at finding some sort of form, however vague and poorly crafted it may be.

Soaked in yoghurt for 7 days!

Chaos Bangle.8

A contemporary and fun set of bangles, created from recycled electricians wire.
I hand-formed each bangle by randomly wrapping the wire around a bracelet mandrel.
I had also been reading that you could oxidize copper with natural yoghurt, so I left them to sit for 7 days in a bowl of yoghurt, after which I cleaned them up, tumbled and finished them with polish.
Each funky set of bangles is unique in its own way – no two wraps will be the same.

: : : : : : : : : : :

It’s here… school hols! Somehow i can hear a mix of ecstatic shouts and exasperated screams… heheh

To me, school hols is like a double edged sword I love the fact that my girls will be safe & sound at home, and the cost saving side of it – no bus fares, no pocket money.

On the other hand, I know for a fact that in the next 5-6 weeks, my house will be turned upside down by those cheeky lil brats… i think most parents are faced with similar dilemma hahahha

I just hope my girls & the hubby will help me clean up the mess ……. yeah, righttttt??!! In my dreams probably ROFL

Holiday Help

Thanksgiving and Christmas are coming up, hooray! These two holdiays are supposed to be the most joyful time of year! Unfortunately, for most of us, it is also the most stressful time of year. Here are some things to remember that may help keep your stress level low and hopefully keep your happiness level high. (Entire Article)

1. Make gift lists. These are helpful if you have a large family and can’t keep track of what you have or haven’t given to which family member and help you avoid giving gifts that you have already given. During the year, keep your ears open just in case someone states something that they would really like to have or that would be useful for them; this list will come in handy for the next gift giving holiday. Take time like waiting at the doctor’s office or standing in line at the grocery store to make your lists because “if it’s in your head, it’s stressful”-Deniece Schofield, home management expert and author of Confessions of a Happily Organized Family.

2. While some people may find wrapping gifts a fun thing to do, others think of it as torturous. Here’s an idea: wrap your gifts and tag them the same day you buy them. This way you won’t have to worry about doing any wrapping five minutes before it’s time to give the gift or wrapping ALL of the things you have bought over the past months in one sitting.

3. If you are hosting for the holidays, cleaning is most likely your biggest obstacle. Remember: everyone is coming to get together, not to scrutinize your home. Don’t rearrange everything in storage closets or clean out your basement, focus on the smaller things. Get the dusting, sweeping, vacuuming, mopping, and tidying up out of the way. If someone offers to help AFTER Thanksgiving or Christmas dinner is through, don’t pretend like you’re the super hero of the family, let everyone pitch in who wants to. It may calm your nerves and it will make those who are helping feel needed.

Meine Güte, im Moment verrinnt die Zeit wie Flug. Da fällt mir doch gestern mit Entsetzen auf, daß am Donnerstag Opossum bereits 65 Jahre alt wird und ab 1. Dezember offiziell zu den Rentnern gehört.
Nicht nur das, am Sonntag haben wir völlig überraschend schon den 1. Advent und unser Muckelchen wird zwei Jahre alt.
8 Tage später kommt bereits der Nikolaus, in 30 Tagen haben wir Weihnachten und nochmal eine Woche später Silvester!
Nichts, aber auch gar nichts haben wir vorbereitet. Ich befürchte, ab morgen bricht in der Chaosbude mal wieder das absolute Chaos aus. Donnerstag und Samstag feiert mein Mann, Sonntag Muckelchen. Ich glaube, ich werde mich in meinem Bastelzimmer verbarrikadieren, um von dem ganzen Getöse nichts mitzukriegen.
Da fällt mir ein, wir haben noch keinen Adventskranz und dekorieren muß ich auch noch. Schock!!! Panik!!! Hülfe!!!
Mir stehen die Haare zu Berge!!! Wie soll ich das nur schaffen?
Ich wollte euch noch so viel berichten, aber das muß ich auf die Nacht verschieben oder nee, ich schreibe es jetzt noch!?
Seid nicht böse, ich muß jetzt erst mal eine Liste machen. Ihr müßt doch bis heute Nacht warten.

                                                            “Ich liebe euch doch alle”.

I did some marker art for one of my girls back in the day.

I love Stitch.

As an agent of chaos, he’s one of the best.  A former coworker compared me to Stitch once after I knocked over a pallet of charcoal and it crashed to the floor. What a mess.

Fun.

Utisz has a series of interesting posts up on human/nature interdependence, anthropocentrism, and the needs fulfilled by metaphysics:

It would be important to recognise this need, not only in the general sense Schopenhauer intended, but also with attention to the particular needs which particular forms of metaphysics might meet, or appear to meet. One ‘need’ today would surely be a means of comprehending and addressing the place of humans in the cosmos, given the actuality of an ecological crisis which threatens humans themselves, a crisis which many feel is ignored not only in mainstream and even radical politics, but also in both mainstream and radical philosophy…. It would therefore be important for those of us critical of the turn to anti-anthropocentric (can we say geocentric?) philosophies, in which new forms of realism, monism and ontology all share a family resemblance, to recognise the legitimacy of the need expressed in this turn despite the turn’s many flaws, in order not abstractly to negate it in criticising it, but address the need which motivates it with an alternative, more compelling explanation. The implicit need – here, it is being suggested, for a philosophy which can make sense of the crisis and allow a thinking and action that could alter the current, dangerous path of human societies – might well be legitimate, merely taking misguided and problematic form.

I like this suggestion to take seriously the needs behind problematic thinking. Compare this to the post and commentary at Cognition and Culture on evolutionary debunking of religious thinking. The gist of the post is that the need behind religious (and perhaps metaphysical) thinking is an evolutionary cognitive bias toward agency detection as a function of threat avoidance. This bias would have little inherent truth-value because in the evolution game, better safe than sorry. The analysis undermines all kinds of agentic and causal beliefs, not just religion, which may turn out to be fantastically emergent.

After several good weeks of “A Vidclip a Day”, personal tasks force me to go irregular with posting clips and thoughts on them. In the next 10-12 days, expect little music from me and even less thoughts, if any at all. I will return around the end of next week, but until then, keep the faith in music and in all the good things worth believing in, and fight the good fights. Q. W3ary over & out – for now.

Without glasses
to correct my vision
there is a halo
around my lights.

Without drugs
to correct my chemistry
there is a fire
inside my mind.

Without society
to correct my beliefs
there is uncertainty
throughout my soul.

Without correction
life is pure.

The only chaos
is control.

I happen to be one of those frazzle brained, organizationaly challenged people who struggle to keep a home from filling up with stuff.  Honstly I don’t think I’m doing too bad, considering I don’t have a basement. Today’s organizational project was the basked of random socks in the bedroom. I sorted it out, into piles of  grown up socks, baby socks, Vincent’s socks, kid socks too big for Julian and too small for Vincent, and non socks.  I decided after storting them, they needed to be rewashed because I think the cat decided to pee in the basket.  So, I mixed in the dirty diapers and the adult socks to make a large load out of a small one. I used lots of  borax and a bit of oxyclean, which I use sparingly.  (That’s a word I use quite a bit!) With the kids socks, I like to color code them with fabric markers or colored permanent markers. If I buy a bag of socks all the same I put a small dot of color on each one so I can tell they are the same size. This makes it easier to sort out what sizes don’t fit, because I can just look for the dots.  I really can’t stand matching socks, so I try to get a lot of the same exact thing to make it easier. I really need to weed out older socks that don’t match my current system, which would help make less laundry. I could cut them into rags (if I don’t cut them open, they end up back in the sock basket)…any other ideas on reusing old socks?

Wat een informatiestroom op zo’n maandagochtend. Hoe zou ik dat destijds als 17 jarige jongen ervaren hebben? De krant, de twittertjes, de mailbox, de teksten van Linkedin, facebook en al die andere geadresseerde boodschappen?

In je hoofd komen ongebreideld talloze signalen binnen. Niet alleen het gezoem van de Nespressomachine, maar ook de geur van koffie, de jeuk aan mijn oog en de smaak van een appel. En daar moeten al die headlines, die allemaal vooraan willen staan blijkbaar nog bij. Het is onze rechter hersenhelft die – volkomen in het ‘hier en nu’ – gretig al die signalen binnenhaalt. In eenvoudige bewoordingen legt de Amerikaanse Jill Bolte Taylor bij TED.com uit hoe vervullend dat gevoel in de rechter hersenhelft moet zijn. Want daar is alles tijdloos en volkomen verweven met de wereld om ons heen. Onbaatzuchtig en kritiekloos nemen we rechts alles aan wat er aan signalen ons hoofd weet te bereiken. En als ik haar beschrijving moet geloven, herken ik daarin de dromerige meisjes in mijn klas vroeger, die urenlang konden voelen aan een versleten plekje van hun boekentas, of staarden naar de trillerige reflectie van zonlicht in het linoleum, alsof ze in een tijdloze wereld zaten. Hun linker hersenhelft zal waarschijnlijk op halve kracht hebben gewerkt, want daarin gaat het normaal heel anders toe. In deze helft regeert de logica en is het bewustzijn van het eigen belang dominant. Dus zit daar een soort informatiemanager die uit al die prikkels en beelden precies die details verzamelt, die ons persoonlijk verder kunnen brengen. Zo wordt ons dossier ‘algemene ontwikkeling’ of ‘carrière’ voortdurend aangevuld met feiten en handigheidjes, beweert Jill overtuigend.
Zou het werkelijk zo gaan dat ik uit die krant met haar enorme gehalte aan absurde berichtgeving, de stroom aan irrelevante twittertjes, mijn mailbox die uitpuilt van andermans problemen, de aanhoudende headlines van Linkedin en facebook en al die andere overlopende emmers die schreeuwen om aandacht, steeds maar weer die enkele relevante snippertjes weet op te rapen, omdat ze me toch iets brengen? Verwondering, kennis, inzicht of verstrooiing? Dan moet ik, vergeleken met de 17 jarige jongen die ik ooit was, behoorlijk bedreven zijn geraakt in het selecteren. Toen was er niets te selecteren, ik las zelden een krant en verder was er niets. Maar vandaag doe ik niet onder voor mijn dochters van 17. Ik ben als een hongerig kind op een oneindige vuilnisbelt, op zoek naar eetbare stukjes afval. Met om mij heen duizend twitterende meeuwen en andere kinderen die me proberen af te leiden, me allerlei rotzooi toewerpen die er niet toe doet: politie bij massavaccinatie, zelfmoord arrestant, dwaling Roda, chirurg verminkt geslacht, Chinese mijnramp, wat ga ik daar allemaal mee doen? Misschien weet die hersenmanager er toch steeds creatiever raad mee en vult hij daarmee dossiers als: ‘wereldwaanzin’ en ‘cultuurspagaat’ en ‘borderheadline’ of de map ‘blogthechaos’. Voorlopig kan ik vooruit want TED is nu ook wegens mondiaal succes in Amsterdam neergestreken. En Prinses van Oranje Wisse Smit deed er al haar woordje. En noemde Obama the president of the United ‘Change’ of America. Dat was nog eens pareltje om op te slaan in de linker hersenhelft.

PARCE QUEEEEEEEEEE !!!

Laissons donc ce blog émerger de l’union de l’ennui profond et de l’absence de pensée ! Soyons juste dégueulasse avec ce monde qui nous entoure !

Thousands of people in flood-hit Cumbria are facing travel chaos with 16 bridges out of action and at least 25 roads closed…. From BBC News. Full story

This site may contain information about: last minute flights. The blog is also related to: discount flights.

Games Workshop have released details of this year’s Games Day miniature. This is a “freebie” they throw in with your tickets, although as the tickets cost £4billion each I hardly class it as free. These things normally end up on eBay with someone asking way over the odds for them. Personally I’ve never been to the GW ultimate geek-day as it clashes with other things, but, here we have a pic of the 2010 Games Day Chaos Sorceror for your viewing pleasure. I think it’s quite good.

Thousands of people in flood-hit Cumbria face major disruption as many roads, bridges and schools remain closed…. From BBC News. Full story

This site may contain information about: dublin airport. The blog is also related to: manchester airport.

Thousands of people in flood-hit Cumbria face major disruption as many roads, bridges and schools remain closed…. From BBC News. Full story

This site may contain information about: education. The blog is also related to: lesson.

Living on the fringe of law abiding society is the dark, sinister world of anarchy, just waiting to spring into action…………look at how quick a demonstration can become a riot or a celebration a free for all of trashing storefronts and starting fires……..

All that’s needed is the perfect catalyst to incite a few, spread to alot and it’s infectous lawlessness is ripped from that deep dark recess of our brains and before you know it…..normally mild mannered people become gun weilding thugs……….

Just like normal, law abiding citizens thrust into the aftermath of a natural disaster and then placed into a situation to obtain food or water…….the lack of law enforcement and the human instinct to survive can turn deadly when many compete for few resources…………

Yep…..like a pack of wolves lurking just outside the glow of the campfire……anarchy is always there…..just waiting for it’s chance to draw blood………