Ricardo Allen getting escorted by Purdue Pete as he crosses the goal line after his 94 yard interception return last season

For the last several years I have used some of the energy that I had in anticipation of the upcoming football game to write a preview. At first it was just my thoughts on the game. Then it morphed into something that almost resembled the weekly packet that the team puts out every week. Then after failing miserably in picking a couple of games I started picking games. If you used my picks for betting purposes I am sorry. They really always were so that I had something down on paper to laugh at after the weekend was over.

Lately I have come to realize that I just have not put the proper effort into this blog. It started out as a way to chronicle my journeys to various sporting events. Then I started trying to be some sort of a news site. I think the news site days are over here at the Junkie. If something happens really big like a third ACL tear for Robbie Hummel (I will start drinking now just in case) I am sure I will comment on it, but for the most part this site will go back to what it was when it started.

If you want to read some good game previews you have two blogs that started up about the same time as this one. They both cover just the Boilers and do a good job of doing it in their own way. Hammer and Rails is the unofficial official Purdue blog. As much as Purdue would like to shut him down they have not done it yet, and from all accounts he is gaining followers. Boiled Sports is a great site as well. They are great to read, and it is even better to listen to them every week when they say many things that we all are thinking. A new kid on the block is Jumbo Heroes. I really enjoyed reading their stuff last season, and look forward to doing it again. I know that the 12 people who read this blog probably already know about these three sites, but if you don’t look them up. I went to all the trouble of hyper-linking them after all.

I am way too excited to go and see a football game tomorrow. This Boiler team has so many question marks that I couldn’t nail down a score if I tried. As usual though I will be there rooting on the Boilers. I really want to see what Caleb TerBush can do. I am also excited to see Ralph Bolden on the field again. Even though the defense lost some key players (and one great one in Ryan Kerrigan) they are also returning some great talent. I think that I am most interested in seeing how Josh Johnson and Ricardo Allen have improved. A couple of former Duneland Conference players on defense (Albert Evans and Ryan Isaac) are other reasons to be excited. I am also pumped to see the pregame and postgame shows. In other words it is time to play some football! Tomorrow starts a marathon that makes the fall so great. Hopefully this team plays like I know that it can so that I can be somewhere very warm around New Years Day.

I will be in the stands wearing my customary John Standeford jersey and taking way too many pictures. Hopefully I shoot something worth posting tomorrow. If I do I am sure that I will have many of them on here for your viewing pleasure.

Predictions - I went 7-3 during the last week of the season to bring my record for the season to 103-27. I never saw the Iowa loss to Minnesota coming. The other games that I missed were heart picks. I thought Grand Valley might lose, but not by the score that they did. They ended coach Matt Mitchell’s first season early in the playoffs. Purdue lost a tough game in overtime to the Indiana Hoosiers for my other loss. My two free picks were almost dead on as Auburn and Arkansas won their games. Compared to how I picked in the past I think that I did a good job this season. For someone who really does not spend hours researching each game. The picks are mostly gut feelings on games. This year my gut was right more than it was wrong. Maybe that is because of the fact that it is a little bigger than it was the last couple of years. My picks are shown below, and as usual the actual scores of the games are in parenthesis.

• #8 Ohio State 42 (37) – Michigan 17 (7)
• #10 Michigan State 27 (28) – Penn State 24 (22)
• #24 Iowa 41 (20) – Minnesota 10 (27)
• #7 Wisconsin 45 (70) – Northwestern 23 (23)
• #15 Nebraska 38 (45) – Colorado 10 (17)
• #12 Arkansas 28 (31) – #5 LSU 27 (23)
• #2 Auburn 21 (28) – #11 Alabama 20 (27)
• Notre Dame 27 (20) – USC 23 (16)
• GVSU 31 (6) – Augustana 30 (38)
• Purdue 25 (31) – Indiana 18 (34)

With the regular season over we now come to the bowl season. Without Purdue in a bowl I will not do a huge writeup this year. I will however pick the games. I don’t know whether or not they will end up in the total for the season or not. That of course will depend on how well I do picking the games. I have picked every bowl game this season on ESPN.com. The have a game called College Bowl Mania. If you want somebody that is easy to beat you can join my group in the game. The group is called “Sports Junkie” and the password is junkie. Below is a screen shot of my picks. I would pick differently though if I were you. This is just included so that you can see what not to do.

As you can see this should be an interesting bowl season. Of course where I live the Notre Dame game against Miami is of interest. When I was growing up the Catholics vs. Convicts games were the games to watch. They played some great games, and this one should not be any different. Of course everyone will be watching Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton and his Auburn Tigers when they play for the National Championship against the Oregon Ducks. Cam Newton has had a great season for Auburn, and appears to have been worth every penny that they paid for him.

The Possum Award - Now it comes time to give away the first Pinola Possum Award. Earlier this season I tried my hand at picking the Heisman front runners each week. I quickly realized that to do a good job of that I would have to watch way too many games. I decided to pick the best player that I had seen in person during the year. I thought that for the most part the players I see are the ones that I watch from week to week anyway. During the season I saw many great players. In week one I saw Mantei Te’O the linebacker for Notre Dame. Week three allowed me to see Toledo quarterback Austin Dantin who led his team to the win over Purdue. I was able to see two of Wisconsin’s three very good running backs. During that game I was also able to watch J.J. Watt who is a great defensive back. I was at Wrigley to watch Michael Leshoure run wild against the Wildcats. Denard Robinson was fun to watch play for Michigan. The final week of the season I was able to see IU players Tandon Doss and Ben Chappell. Even though I did not see him play in person this season I enjoy watching Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. The point of all this rambling is that I have seen many good players this season. The best of those that I have seen is by far Ryan Kerrigan. Ryan had a great season that Purdue fans will remember for a long time. He was overlooked by many for some major awards this season. That is not the case here. Ryan Kerrigan is the winner of the first annual Pinola Possum award. This award is named for the fierce creature that inhabits the small township that I live near. I saw Ryan play many games, and he really was the real deal. He will be taking his talents to the next level very shortly when a team calls his name early in the 2011 NFL Draft. Hopefully my Packers pick him up so that he can dominate alongside Mike Neal once again. All season long I have been seeing Ryan compared to a super hero. I agree that he was super during his time at Purdue. He leaves with many records in his pocket. Here is how Ryan might look as a super hero.

Ryan Kerrigan closing in on the quarterback two years ago

This will likely be my final football game of the year. With Purdue not going to a bowl (unless they allow a 5-7 team into the Little Caesar’s Bowl) I do not have a football game on the schedule in the near future. That seems kind of weird. i love football, and the season is just about over. It seems like it was just September and I had a lot of optimism heading into the Notre Dame game. I even picked the Boilers to win that one. I have made that mistake multiple times since. Early in the season the Boilers were 4-2, and needing just two wins to make a bowl. Well they have not won a game since then, and the bowl hope is now gone. Indiana started the season 3-0,  and have only managed one win since. This game could have been a bowl showdown, but it is not. Who knows how many people will even show up to it? The students will be on Thanksgiving break, and many people are traveling for the holidays. To make matters worse the basketball team who is ranked in the top ten in the country has a game at night in Chicago. 

Now we have come to the final game of the season. This year has not gone according to plan for the Boilers. Instead of beating a rival for bow positioning we are simply playing for pride and the Bucket. This game is important because it is the last one that several Boilers will be playing in their college careers. I really have gotten to like these guys, and I will have a senior day post coming out tomorrow. I started to incorporate it into this one, but it was getting way too long. Hopefully the Boilers can get way up on the Hoosiers so that all the seniors can get in the game.

As far as analysis of the game goes. Who knows anymore? What team will show up on either side is up in the air. The Boilers have played well two of the last three weeks. Both of those opponents were top ten teams. The team in the middle was a horrible Michigan team, and the Boilers just did not seem up for the game. I hope that they can get up for this one, and end the season on a positive note. This will be the ninth game that I have attended this season. So far I have seen the team go 3-5 on the season. A couple of those games really felt like the team could have won. Going into the game I think that they can win this one, but now they just have to go out and do it. The Boiler passing offense is ranked 115th out of 120 teams going into the final game of the season. They also sit 109th in total scoring averaging only 18.6 points a game on offense. They go up against an Indiana defense that is ranked 94th in total defense. They are 93rd against the run and 92nd against the pass. They are 102nd in the country in scoring defense. I thought that Purdue would be able to get it going against Michigan’s poor defense, but of course they did not. Maybe they can find something this week to get things moving. In the last six bucket games Purdue has scored an average of 46.5 points so something has to give. Last week on College Gameday Lee Corso said that he would not pick Purdue “if they were playing a rock.” They almost proved him wrong last week, but this week they are playing a team with a rock. Who would he pick now?

History - I have seen several bucket games over the years. Like I said my first was in 1996 when I bought a student ticket from the satellite campus up north. The game in 1998 was memorable to most, but I had the bottle flu, and really do not remember much of it. We all remember how great the game was in 2000 when Drew led his team to the Rose Bowl. I have only missed one home game since ’96, and that was 2004. I was stuck in Iowa and had to work that day. I made up for it the next year though when I travelled to Bloomington to see the two teams play. I have enjoyed this rivalry immensely, and have only seen the Boilers lose once in person. Of course that was the first time that I saw the two teams play. Who can forget the first time that Jake Standeford really took center stage. Before the huge block came ‘the strip’ against Indiana. The last time I saw the two teams play was Joe Tiller’s final game in 2008. What a great way to send off the coach. For some reason the post of that game is no longer on the site. That must have been a casualty of the move to WordPress. Here are the games that I have seen:

• 11/23/1996 Indiana 33 @ Purdue 16
• 11/21/1998 Purdue 52 – Indiana 7
• 11/18/2000 #17 Purdue 41 – Indiana 13
• 11/23/2002 Purdue 34 – Indiana 10
• 11/19/2005 Purdue 41 @ Indiana 14
• 11/18/2006 Purdue 28 – Indiana 19
• 11/22/2008 Purdue 62 – Indiana 10

Predictions - The season is almost over so the prediction section is nearing its end. I might bring it back for the bowl season, but I am not sure. I went 8-2 last week to bring the season record to 96-24. I think I would have been happy with that at the beginning of the season, but I had so many good weeks that I set the bar a little higher. Here is how I did last week:

• #12 Michigan State 45 (35) – Purdue 15 (31)
• Penn State 38 (41) – Indiana 17 (24)
• #7 Wisconsin 44 (48) – Michigan 27 (28)
• #9 Ohio State 27 (20) – #20 Iowa 20 (17)
• #8 Nebraska 31 (6) – #19 Texas A&M 20 (9)
• #16 Virginia Tech 28 (31) – #24 Miami (FL) 27 (17)
• #13 Arkansas 31 (38) – #21 Mississippi State 17 (17)
• Grand Valley State 42 (35) – Colorado Mines 13 (13)
• Notre Dame 27 (27) – Army 18 (3)
• Northwestern 28 (27) – Illinois 24 (48)

So now we have one this last week of the regular season to make picks. I picked the usual Big Ten games along with Nebraska who will be in the Big Ten next season. I also picked the Irish game along with the second round Division 2 playoff game that Grand Valley is playing Saturday. Also I picked what I thought were the tougher picks this week as well. Here are this weeks picks:

• #8 Ohio State 42 – Michigan 17
• #10 Michigan State 27 – Penn State 24
• #24 Iowa 41 – Minnesota 10
• #7 Wisconsin 45 – Northwestern 23
• #15 Nebraska 38 – Colorado 10
• #12 Arkansas 28 – #5 LSU 27
• #2 Auburn 21 – #11 Alabama 20
• Notre Dame 27 – USC 23
• GVSU 31 – Augustana 30
• Purdue 25 – Indiana 18

The normal red marquee will be purple this Saturday

The people have spoken and I will be going to Wrigley Field this Saturday to see football played at the historic grounds. Here is how the vote went down:

1. Northwestern vs. Illinois (Wrigley) 50%
2. Purdue @ Michigan State 39%
3. Grand Valley State vs. Colorado Mines 7%
4. Ball State vs. Northern Illinois 4%

I think that some felt pity on me, and did not want to see yet another road trip to a Purdue game only to see them get throttled. Early in the season this was the trip I was going to make as I have not seen a football game in East Lansing yet. As the injuries piled up though I decided now may not be the time. Instead I will head to Wrigley Field to see what I think is one of the most unique football games this season. Normally this is where I would make a joke about college football being played at a Minor League stadium, but I am above that this week. Football is not new to Wrigley field. The Bears played over 365 regular season games in the friendly confines. Until 2003 Wrigley had hosted more professional football games than any other stadium. The last time football was played in Wrigley was in 1970 though. You have to go way back to 1938 to find the last college football game played in Wrigley. That game featured Depaul up against St. Louis. Of course neither of those two schools even has a football program now. 

This time around they have made things a little different. The field now goes from home plate to right field. Any pictures I have seen from the old configuration show it going from home plate to left field. Another interesting fact is that both teams will be on the same side of the field. Due to space limitations both benches will be side by side. The field fits in so tight that there is less than a foot in certain areas from the playing field to the brick wall. Things should get interesting Saturday on plays close to the wall. The goalpost in right field is actually attached to the outfield wall.

Edit: As of Friday morning the rules have changed for the game. The teams will now never be driving towards the right field end zone. All offensive possessions will be going towards home plate. How crazy is that? The only time a player could score in the east end zone is on a defensive touchdown. No matter where the touchdown is scored both teams will will kick the extra points and field goals towards the west end zone. I would guess that the absurd rule changes that were made at the last minute for this game will go a long way toward making sure that it is the last football game played at Wrigley.

The two teams playing could not be coming off any different weeks. Northwestern is coming off a huge win against then #13 Iowa. Illinois on the other hand was embarrassed my Minnesota who claimed their first Big Ten win of the season. As big as Illinois loss was to Minnesota nothing can compare to the loss of Northwesterns quarterback Dan Persa. Persa was hurt on the last offensive play of the game for Northwestern, and will be out the rest of the season. That is a big blow for a team that has seven wins on the season, and was starting to think big. I am sure that all the hype surrounding this game will help the teams get up for it though. College Gameday even thinks enough of the special circumstances surrounding the game to broadcast live from across the street. The atmosphere around the stadium should be a festive one, and one which I should enjoy. The Persa injury along with the uncertainty of what Illinois team will show up makes this game hard to predict. Since I have no real ties to either team I think I will just go and have some fun. Although I have a strong suspicion that I will be pulling for the Wildcats once I get inside. You will not see me wearing any purple though. Thank God that Purdue has gold and black as their colors.

My seat for the game is near the right field foul pole which would not be a bad seat for a baseball game, but I think that it will be an excellent seat for the game on Saturday. Time will tell though. I should have a great view of the right field end zone (that just seemed weird to type) though which is the one that seems to be the best. Hopefully I can get some good pictures to post next week.

Predictions: I needed to pick it up a bit last week to get my percentage up, and I did just the opposite. I never saw the upset of Utah by Notre Dame coming. Illinois losing to Minnesota was also a shocker. I will also not be picking Purdue to win this week because they have burned me over and over this season. Here is how I did last week:

• #13 Iowa 34 (17) – Northwestern 20 (21)
• #7 Wisconsin 42 (83) – Indiana 28 (20)
• Illinois 37 (34) – Minnesota 18 (38)
• #9 Ohio State 32 (38) – Penn State 24 (14)
• #14 Utah 38 (3) – Notre Dame 20 (28)
• #8 Nebraska 52 (20) – Kansas 10 (3)
• #12 Alabama 33 (30) – #19 Mississippi State 17 (10)
• #23 South Carolina 31 (36) – Florida 28 (14)
• #17 Missouri 34 (38) – #24 Kansas State 27 (28)
• Purdue 38 (16) – Michigan 37 (27)

After a 6-4 week my record now sits at 88-22 on the season. I will have to pull some magic out of my hat this week to get the record up. As usual I will pick all of the Big Ten games along with future Big Ten member Nebraska. I will also pick the Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium as well as the Grand Valley State Lakers playoff opener. Thankfully the Lakers are playing the Colorado Mines instead of the Chilean Miners. They would have had no chance in the sympathy vote going up against the Chilean Miners. Of course the Chilean Miners might have gotten trapped in their locker room and not come back out after halftime making the second half much easier. Here are the week eleven picks:

• #12 Michigan State 45 – Purdue 15
• Penn State 38 – Indiana 17
• #7 Wisconsin 44 – Michigan 27
• #9 Ohio State 27 – #20 Iowa 20
• #8 Nebraska 31 – #19 Texas A&M 20
• #16 Virginia Tech 28 – #24 Miami (FL) 27
• #13 Arkansas 31 – #21 Mississippi State 17
• Grand Valley State 42 – Colorado Mines 13
• Notre Dame 27 – Army 18
• Northwestern 28 – Illinois 24

The player that must have haunted Rich Rodriguez for two years

So this is it. The Boilers have three games left with two wins needed to become bowl eligible. They go to Michigan State next weekend so I think that they will have to take care of Michigan this week along with beating the Hoosiers to get their two wins. There is also the chance that they finish out 0-3. I think that the events of this weekend will go a long way in determining how the rest of the season goes. 

To win this game the Boilers will have to put some points on the board. Illinois scored 65 on Michigan last week and still lost. True freshman Sean Robinson will get his second straight start at quarterback for the Boilers. It is basically his third full game considering he played the majority of the game at Illinois. Sean has to have a game similar to the one he had against Wisconsin in the first half. He could keep his passes down if he wants to as well. One thing that could help the Boilers offense is the fact that the Big Ten’s leading tackler linebacker Jonas Mouton may not play. Anything that can help the Boiler offense is welcome at this point. I think that the Boilers have the offense to keep up with Michigan. The question is though can they put the pieces together? They seemed to have a better handle on the offense even against a quality team like Wisconsin. They had the ball for just over half of the game so the defense could actually rest. Part of that might be that Purdue gave the Badgers a short field for most of their scoring drives, but they still could control the ball. All of the Big Ten foes that Michigan has played so far this season have scored over 34 points this season. Purdue has not scored over 31 yet this season. This could be a week that the Boiler offense gets healthy. With a secondary that is as banged up as our offense is that hopefully won’t be a stretch.

One thing that I noticed while looking at the stats this week was that Purdue quarterbacks seemed to get hurt right after passing for over 500 yards on the season. Robert Marve threw for 512 yards then got hurt. Rob Henry just went over with 501 yards, then was hurt. Sean Robinson has 223 yards passing on the season right now so Skyler Titus might want to start taking some snaps. Maybe Justin Siller will be healthy by then. I hope that Robinson can get to the 500 yard mark during this game so that this curse can be put to rest.

Now all the offense in the world will not win this game unless the Boilers can stop Denard Robinson. So far this season Denard himself has out gained the entire Purdue offense by almost 400 yards. He is a player like we have not seen so far this season. Well at least on the other team. Purdue has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks so far this season, and (along with Cam Newton) Robinson might be the most mobile. He is 150 rushing yards from having the best season ever from a quarterback. This game will probably come down to which Robinson has the best game. Will SRob have the edge or will it be DRob?

The Purdue defense must step up their game the same way that they did against Wisconsin. If they can get the rest that the offense should give them they have no excuse not to perform this week. Albert Evans is back at safety, and he showed his worth right away last week with a pick. Ryan Kerrigan only has two more home games left in his career so we have to enjoy him while we can. He is within striking distance of a couple Big Ten and school records, and this is a great week to get them. Of course last week was a good week as well.

Purdue may have turned a corner on special teams. Last week Wayne Gravesande returned a punt for 22 yards. That may not seem like a lot, but it is the longest return of the season. In the first seven games of the season Purdue averaged 1.5 yards per return. I started getting upset about this stat leading up to the Illinois game. Since the Illinois game though they have averaged 12.3 yards per return. A good or great return would be nice to set up some scores every now and then.

Both teams are at the Bottom of the Big Ten in turnovers. Purdue is tenth in the league, and Michigan is hanging out in the cellar. Purdue was doing very well early in this category, but the last couple of weeks they have really regressed. The turnovers have hurt them badly in that span. Illinois and Wisconsin turned those turnovers into 52 points. You cannot win football games giving up 26 points a game off of turnovers. This is the one thing that has me worried going into the game. The positive side of the equation though is the fact that Michigan might just give us the ball right back after a turnover.

I think that this game will end up much like the 2008 game at Ross-Ade where the last team with the ball and time wins the game. Of course I always have hope heading into gameday so I may be way off. I really think that Sean Robinson is getting better each week. If his line can give him time he should be able to get some yards. The only question I have this week is how many total points will be scored? Will this game get over 100? I think that it would be a stretch for Purdue to score over 40 in regulation so I hope that the final tally is a lower one.

On a side note freshman O.J. Ross who was originally reported as being lost for the season could be back as early as next week at Michigan State. I think I would save him for a shot at Indiana though. No sense getting him hurt again by rushing him back. That is good news for Ross though.

History - I have seen the Wolverines play five times, and amazingly I have seen them lose three of those games. Purdue is 2-2 against Michigan when I attend, and 2-1 at home. Here are the games that I have seen Michigan involved in (as the date is hyperlinked if I have attended a game):

• 10/7/2000 Purdue 32 – #6 Michigan 31
• 10/13/2001     #12 Michigan 24 – #17 Purdue 10
• 9/14/2002     Notre Dame 25 – Michigan 23
• 10/19/2002     #11 Michigan 23 @ Purdue 21
• 11/1/2008 Purdue 48 – Michigan 42

Predictions - I need to pick it up a little to get above 85% for the season. This week outside of a couple Big Ten games I don’t think that the picks are too easy. Of course the Big Ten games that I think are in the bag I will probably lose. I am picking Purdue so the Boilers have to step it up to bail me out. My upset pick of the week is the ‘Ol Ball Coach going back to Florida and pulling out a win. I also think that Notre Dame is in trouble. Utah is going to be upset, and looking for someone to pay. I think they will find it in the Irish. Here are my picks for this week:

• #13 Iowa 34 – Northwestern 20
• #7 Wisconsin 42 – Indiana 28
• Illinois 37 – Minnesota 18
• #9 Ohio State 32 – Penn State 24
• #14 Utah 38 – Notre Dame 20
• #8 Nebraska 52 – Kansas 10
• #12 Alabama 33 – #19 Mississippi State 17
• #23 South Carolina 31 – Florida 28
• #17 Missouri 34 – #24 Kansas State 27
• Purdue 38 – Michigan 37

We may see this flag a lot on Saturday

Well this post will be tough. The Boilers have lost the last two games by a combined 93-10. They have lost their last two to the Badgers by a combined score of 61-3. That does not inspire great confidence in me as I prepare to head down to West Lafayette. A lot of people are talking about how we were in a similar situation last season with #7 Ohio State coming into town. This is not the same situation. The Purdue team last season had lost some tight games in their tailspin. This team has gotten their butts kicked the last two games, and are showing no signs of coming out of it. 

The last two weeks I have gone to the NCAA site and compiled the statistics for both teams to look at. I started it to get a better understanding of the two teams that I saw play in Big Rapids. I thought that it would be a good way to look at the Purdue game until I read the actual Purdue game notes the next day and saw that they had a great section with that exact information on it. So I will leave that to them from now on, and just pick out a few things to look at going into the game.

The first stat that has to be addressed is the Purdue passing game. They are ranked 115th out of 120 schools in passing yards per game. The 136.9 that they are putting up a game is terrible. How can you even think about running the ball if the other team is stacking the line? Robert Marve had the best day of the year against Notre Dame to start the season when he threw for 220 yards. Since then it has all been downhill. Just looking at the offensive stats makes you wince. In the almost two games that he played this season Keith Smith had 18 receptions. After eight games Cortez Smith and Kyle Adams lead the team with 22 catches a piece. They are lacking any consistency on offense, and that is really hurting them right now. Every time someone steps up like Ross they end up injured. The Boilers did not need to throw the ball much in a couple wins, but now the rest of the Big Ten picked up on what Northwestern and Minnesota did not. Purdue does not want to throw the ball.  Last week Robinson was 7-20 for 52 yards on the day. That will take your average down a bit. Here are some other offensive stats. They rank 104th in total offense with 311.5 yards per game, and 106th in scoring offense with 18.1 points per game. Against a good Wisconsin defense this will be tough to improve on this week.

The highlights of the last couple of weeks have been the two stars of the Boilermaker defensive line Ryan Kerrigan and Kawann Short. Last week Short had 2 sacks to bring his total to six for the season. Kerrigan had a boring one sack to bring his total to 7.5 on the year. They both sit atop the national leaderboard right now. Kerrigan ranks #14 and Short is #25 in sacks. Kerrigan leads the country in tackles for loss with 18.5. Short sits at #16 with 12.5. Short also leads the team with six pass break ups. These guys are dominating right now. J.J. Watt shows up on both lists as well so we should get to see some defense this week. If Kerrigan can get a 1/2 sack this week he will move into 3rd place all time on the Purdue leader board with Jeff Zgonina and Akin Ayodele. The only game this season where he did not get at least one sack was against Minnesota so looking just at that the odds are in his favor. Kerrigan is also one forced fumble away from moving into first place on his own for Purdue, and tying the Big Ten record. Ryan had three forced fumbles in the first four games, but has not had one since. This would be a good week for him to get the record. The defense will have to help out this week if the Boilers are to have a chance. The Boilers rank 7th in the country in sacks, but the Badgers are 11th in sacks allowed. This should be a great matchup to watch.

Wisconsin comes into the game with a good offense. They have a trio of very good running backs that can each take control of the game. They are led by John Clay who has been a force all season so far. They are rushing for over 220 yards per game this season. Purdue is giving up 139 yards a game so this should be a test. The most by an opponent this season was Scheelhaase last week when he ran for 118 yards. The longest run that the Boilers have given up was to Austin Dantin the Toledo quarterback. Do you see a pattern here? So far the Boilers have shut down the running backs this season, but the mobile quarterbacks have gotten to them. Scott Tolzein is not a mobile quarterback so maybe we can not get burned by him. Stopping the three headed monster at running back will be another story.

Special teams play seemed to improve last week. O.J. Ross had a nice return, but was injured on the play. Wayne Gravesande had a nice day on punt returns. They moved from 119th in the country to 111th. The kickoff return team has dropped to 119th in the country. It is hard to put a playmaker back there though because they are so needed on offense. Once again a special teams touchdown would be a great way to get the Boilers closer.

The team that will take the field Saturday is a young one. On the two deeps posted earlier in the week 10 of the 22 players on offense were either freshmen or sophomores. There are 12 underclassmen on the defensive side of the ball. The good news is that these guys are getting experience, but the bad news is that they are thrown into the fire in the middle of the Big Ten season. The optimist in me says that this will pay off down the road.

So what do I think will happen on Saturday? I would love to sit here and predict the upset, but I think that we could have the team play the game of their lives and it would be a close game. I have only seen the Boilers beat the Badgers once so I wouldn’t mind seeing it this weekend. I just can’t come up with enough reasons for that to happen. My only hope is that the game is at least somewhat close. I will be there though cheering them on, and hoping for a miracle. We are just too beat up right now facing a tough team that has had two weeks to prepare for us. It will be a tough task. The team sits at 4-4 needing two wins to become bowl eligible. I think they might have to wait a week for the first win. If they do win though I will see you on the field! If they don’t there is always a basketball game on Tuesday.

History: I have seen the Boilers and Badgers meet up four times before tomorrow. The Boilers won the first meeting in 1997, and have not won a game since. Here is how the four games went. In 1999 the Boilers and Badgers met on the exact same date as they will Saturday. I did a quick look back at that game yesterday. Luckily I was working in Iowa when the big game was played in 2004 so although it hurt the week leading up to it, I think it was for the best that I did not get to see that one in person. If the date is highlighted it means that I have a recap on this site.

• 10/18/1997 Purdue 45 – #24 Wisconsin 20
• 11/6/1999 #10 Wisconsin 28 #17 Purdue 21
• 10/21/2006 #21 Wisconsin 24 – Purdue 3
• 10/31/2009 Wisconsin 37 – Purdue 0

Predictions: I am 75-15 on the season after going 8-2 again last week. This week I hope that I can have a good week. After these picks I will sit at 100 games picked this season. Even someone such as myself can do the math on percentages then so I wouldn’t mind seeing a 10-0 week. Here is how I see the week panning out:

• #7 Nebraska 35 – Iowa State 17
• #14 Michigan State 45 – Minnesota 10
• #16 Iowa 35 – Indiana 17
• Illinois 31 – Michigan 28
• Penn State 17 – Northwestern 15
• #6 Alabama 31 – #10 LSU 14
• #3 TCU 31 – #5 Utah 27
• #19 South Carolina 31 – #18 Arkansas 24
• #13 Stanford 41 – #15 Arizona 38
• #9 Wisconsin 42 – Purdue 9

I did not pick any cupcake games for my non Big Ten matchups. I have been picking Nebraska all season so that was a given. I picked four games matching up two top 25 teams for my four filler picks. This could be either a good week or a really bad week for me.

Chief Illiniwek during his last football performance in 2006

This will be the second time that I have traveled to Champaign to see the Boilers play the Illini. The first was in 2006 when Joe Tiller’s group took advantage of turnovers to become bowl eligible. While reading the Illinois preview on Hammer and Rails I saw that Boiler T-Mill who does most of the writing had a 7-11 record following Purdue on the road. That got me thinking about my record following Purdue. I have seen Purdue on the road fifteen times so far. Of those fifteen times the Boilers have dropped ten of them. The worst loss by far had to be last season at Wisconsin when they went down 37-0. I am really glad that I sold my Ohio State tickets for last weekend because that would have been horrible to have seen in person. Here is a quick breakdown of my Purdue road trips by team:

• Notre Dame 0-5 (’94, ’96, ’06, ’08, ’10)
• Michigan 0-1 (’01)
• Iowa 0-2 (’04, ’06)
• Indiana 1-0 (’05)
• Northwestern 1-0 (’06)
• Illinois 1-0 (’06)
• Maryland 0-1 (Bowl ’06)
• Toledo 1-0 (’07)
• Central Michigan 1-0 (Bowl ’07)
• Wisconsin 0-1 (’09)

As you can see if you take Notre Dame out of the equation Purdue has a .500 record when I see them on the road. They lost the first three Big Ten games that I saw in person before reeling off three straight wins. Of course the debacle in Madison last year put an end to that streak. As usual I also like to post the games that I have seen between the two teams. Illinois is one of the rare schools that after Saturday I will have seen just as much on the road as in Ross-Ade Stadium. So far I have seen Illinois twice at Purdue, and the one time on the road at Illinois. Here is a look at those games.

• 10/24/98  Purdue 42 – Illinois 9
• 11/11/06   Purdue 42 – Illinois 31
• 10/24/09  Purdue 24 – Illinois 14

I will be tweeting live from the road and at the game. If you care to read my drivel you can follow me at @csd72 on the Twitter. Purdue is 1-0 when I attend games at Illinois so maybe I can bring them some luck this week. I may also take the opportunity to see the Purdue Ice Hockey club team for the first time this weekend. They play at 3:20 central time just up the road in Bloomington. I have never seen the Boiler hockey team play so this may be as good of a chance as any.

Last week for the Grand Valley game I did a quick chart pitting both teams against each other using stats from ncaa.org. I liked the way it let me see some things so much that I decided to try it this week for the Purdue game. The chart is below. I knew that Illinois had an improved defense, but the stats show how good it really is. The glaring stat on the chart is the return game for both teams. Purdue ranks #118 out of 120 schools in punt returns with 1.25 yards a return. Purdue has only gained 15 yards this season on punt returns. The long was six yards. Not to be outdone Illinois sits just above us at #117 with 2.53. The only schools below both of them are Memphis and New Mexico. That is just terrible from two Big Ten schools. Purdue ranks #119 in kick off returns with 17.68 yards a return. Only Florida State ranks below them. That is terrible. With a struggling offense you really would like to see your special teams score you some points. Unless we field a punt from the opponents one yard line I don’t think Purdue will score. Maybe they will break one this week and make me look stupid. Purdue ranks #80 for punt returns defense allowing 10.22 yards a return. They also are ranked #111 in kick return yardage allowed with 25,58 yards a return. A lot has been made of Purdue having a special teams coach when most schools don’t. I know that he is trying, but man these numbers are bad. Other than that Purdue is giving up exactly the same amount of points that Illinois scores every game. I don’t expect that to change this week. (In case you missed it that is a joke.) The more I see these numbers the more I believe the 15 point spread that Purdue faces. With a new quarterback possibly at the helm the offensive numbers could go down even lower. Who would have thought that a Purdue team would only be averaging 149 yards passing a game? In the early days of Tiller that would have been the first quarter stat.

It is amazing to me how many stats have a number in the 100′s next to it for Purdue. It would be amazing to make a bowl with numbers this bad. So what don’t the stats tell us about this game? Well the stats don’t really factor in the Sean Robinson factor. He has only had limited snaps on the season. The majority of the offensive numbers were put up by Rob Henry and Robert Marve. One would think that the numbers would go down with a newbie who has not run the offense much this season. Although maybe talent will trump experience. That is Purdue’s hope right now. Ryan Kerrigan  is second in the country with 2.36 tackles for loss per game. He is third overall, but Nick Fairley of Auburn has played in one more game than Ryan, and only has a half tackle more. Ryan is also 15th in the country in sacks per game. He is sitting at .93 right now. It would be nice for him to get a couple this week to get his numbers up a little. Kawann Short ranks 31st nationally with 9.5 tackles for loss. In the Big Ten Kerrigan is first and Short is second right now. That may be the only thing the Boilers have going for them in the next few weeks. Although an upset win Saturday would change the outlook considerably. I just don’t think that the upset will happen though. Illinois has only lost three times this season, and the combined records of those three teams is 22-1. They played all three teams tough as well. Maybe they will overlook the Boilers with a trip to Michigan on tap for the following weekend.

That brings me to my next point. The Boilers need two wins to reach the magical six win mark that makes them bowl eligible. Last week I posted the odds I thought that they had of winning their remaining games. Just for kicks I will post it again this week.

• @Ohio State 12%
• @Illinois 30%
• Wisconsin 10%
• Michigan 45%
• @ Michigan State 12%
• Indiana 55%

The 12% chance I gave them at Ohio State looks kind of silly now that we know what happened. Although if most of the Buckeyes were injured they may have had a chance. This is a new week though. The Boilers are down to five games to get two wins. Realistically I think that you can count out the Michigan State and Wisconsin games. Unless the Boilers pull a major upset I think they will get beaten soundly. That leaves this week at Illinois along with home games against Michigan and Indiana to get two. I would love the bucket game to mean something this year. It would be even better if it meant something to both teams. How would that be for an exciting end to the season?

When the season started I thought that this would be an easy win. Coming into the game with identical overall records you would think that these are two evenly matched teams. Hell we are even ahead of Illinois in the Big Ten Standings. Unfortunately the two teams have gotten to their records in a different way. The Boilers are very undermanned on offense, and the defense it reeling after getting torched for 49 points last week. Albert Evans will still be out at safety. He is a big loss that hurts us back their. He was just coming into his own when he went down. I am heading to Champaign expecting a loss. If we win that will just be icing on the cake for the road trip. It would be nice to see the offense come together. We thought we had that when Henry took over, but he is now hurt. Maybe Robinson can jump start this offense.

Predictions: As usual I will pick all of the Big Ten games, the Irish game, and a few other games that I think are interesting from around the country. Outside of the Big Ten I had a little trouble finding some interesting matchups. Then I thought about the BCS curse that has come up lately so I decided to pick the Auburn and Oregon games. So far this season I am 67-13 picking games. That puts me just under 84% on the season. I have tried to pick some harder games each week instead of easy wins. So far I seem to have done okay on the hard picks, but whiffed on few that I thought were easy. I have also missed on Purdue three times, and I hope this week makes it four. From what I saw earlier in the week Purdue was over a two touchdown underdog. I don’t think the game will be that bad. Of course those same people had Michigan State as just under a touchdown dogs. I just have seen Michigan State pull too many games out this season to pick against them. I will ride them until they are done. I also think that the Cinderella story that is Missouri will end this weekend. The only reason I give Minnesota 17 points is because of Weber and Da’Jon McKnight. They will hook up for something during the game. Here is how I see things shaping up this weekend

• #5 Michigan State 24 – #18 Iowa 23
• #14 Nebraska 31 – #6 Missouri 21
• #11 Ohio State 52 – Minnesota 17
• Northwestern 38 – Indiana 35
• Penn State 28 – Michigan 24
• #13 Stanford 35 – Washington 27
• #1 Auburn 38 – Ole Miss 28
• #2 Oregon 35 – USC 31
• Notre Dame 38 – Tulsa 21
• Illinois 23 – Purdue 15

McMahon to Shuford

Have you ever noticed that their are a lot of schools in Michigan that end in State? Grand Valley State takes on another state from their own state this weekend when they travel to Big Rapids to play the Ferris State Bulldogs. Before last weekend this was shaping up to be a huge game. Both teams were undefeated in the GLIAC North. The Bulldogs lost to Northern Michigan in the dome 22-20 though to take some of the luster off of the game. With about four minutes left in the game Northern Michigan kicked a field goal that gave Ferris their first loss in the GLIAC this season. As it is though if Ferris State wins they can still pull back even in the standings. This game is the season right now for Ferris State. This will be my first trip to Top Taggert Field. At one point in my life I almost attended Ferris State for all the wrong reasons, so this will be a cool trip to see the campus a little. In conjunction with the football game Saturday I will also be at the Ferris State hockey game that night against Ohio State (Another State team). I figured that I sold my Ohio State football tickets for Saturday against Purdue so I should at least see part of the Ohio State game and boo the hockey team. I will be against the Bulldogs in the afternoon, but I hope they can pull off the win at night. 

When I was looking at both teams prior to writing this I saw that they have played for the Anchor Bone Trophy since 2002. The series has been one sided since that time so Ferris has yet to take home the trophy. The Lakers have won all seven games since the trophy was introduced by Huntington Bank. The Lakers have won 9 straight in the series, but they have had some close calls in that span. Last year the Lakers needed a late score to take the trophy home again. As I said I had to do some research before writing this because I did not know very much about Ferris State, and my knowledge of Grand Valley is also limited. A good site that was invaluable was The Official Ferris State Bulldogs Athletics Blog. It is written very well by Sandy Gholston who is also a co-host of the Bulldog Beat Football Show which airs live every Thursday night here. Of course Grand Valley has several outlets, but so far I have enjoyed reading GVFootball.com. If you want expert opinions on this game you should probably check one of those sources out.

If you are still here then you must want to read on. Thank you. I put together a little chart with some key stats head to head for both teams. It is kind of a way for me to get to know both teams a little better before Saturday. )The rank on the left of each statistic is the overall rank in Division 2.)

One thing that stuck out right away for me was the turnover margin. Grand Valley is +14 on the season only losing the football five times so far. Both of those stats are good for #3 in the nation, and best in the GLIAC. Ferris State has turned the ball over as often as they have forced turnovers. Turnovers will usually win you games, and that is a stat you always want to win. With the chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday keeping the football will be very important. Another thing I will be watching is Ferris State’s passing versus Grand Valley. The Lakers are #106 in D2 defending the pass, and Ferris is #100 in D2 passing. Who will win this battle? The Grand Valley defense must step it up if they want to walk away winners Saturday. They have allowed ten points or less in three of their last four games so they have turned things around a little. They are still allowing a lot of yards to the other team, but they seem to buckle down close. Ferris is strong up front on defense, and Grand Valley is not too bad themselves. This is another matchup that I will enjoy watching. Ferris has two players who lead the GLIAC in sacks, and a linebacker who is in the top ten in tackles in the country. I have not seen them play, but from what I have read they are very good. Will the front seven of Ferris State prevail? They must have a good game to keep the Lakers off balance. If they cannot get a push the Lakers will have a field day. One stat that is not listed is the fact that the Lakers average 29.13 yards per kickoff return. That helps give Grand Valley a shorter field. The Bulldogs need to stay in their lanes and contain the Laker returns.

When you are Grand Valley State you take everyone’s best shot. This week will be no different. Ferris State sees this as a huge game not only for the present, but also the future. They see a win being a huge cornerstone for the program. A huge crowd is expected at Top Taggert Field for this showdown. Last year Ferris was in a tailspin, but kept it close the entire game. Grand Valley needed a score in the last five minutes to pull out the win. Ferris also has a chip on their shoulder. They used to be the big brother in this series, but things have changed. Grand Valley is now the power. The last time the Bulldogs beat the Lakers was in 1999. The last time they won at Top Taggert Field was in 1995. Clearly the Bulldog fans would love a win. Let me rephrase that. They need a win. I think that the weather may keep the score down, but Grand Valley will walk away with the win.

As usual just because I am not attending the Purdue game does not mean that I won’t talk about it. Last season Purdue pulled off a huge upset when they beat the #7 Ohio State Buckeyes at home. A key to that game was the constant badgering of Terrelle Pryor by Ryan Kerrigan. He will have to be huge this week if Purdue wants to make it two upsets over the Buckeyes in a row. I think that the road will be long for them if they want to bring home the win. Rob Henry will get his first real test in the ‘Shoe. He did all right in his first road win, but Evanston is far from Columbus.

Purdue needs just two more wins to become bowl eligible. This is a huge plus for a team that most people left for dead after losing at home to Toledo. I have seen a lot about going to a lower tier bowl game, but it gives everyone an extra month to practice and gives the seniors one more game. If Purdue can get to any bowl it would be a huge deal. That being said it will be a hard road for them to get two more wins. They have six games remaining with only one real toss up left. In the rest of the games Purdue will be underdogs. I sat here thinking about the chances of Purdue winning each game for the rest of the season, and here is what I came up with:

• @Ohio State 12%
• @Illinois 30%
• Wisconsin 10%
• Michigan 45%
• @ Michigan State 12%
• Indiana 55%

As you can see (at least how I see it) Purdue will have to pull off an upset or two to go bowling. That does not mean that it won’t happen though. It would just make it that much sweeter if they can do it. They came so close last season only to fall one game short.

Predictions: Last week I went 8-2 to bring my season record to 59-11. This week could go either way. There are only a couple games of the ten that are one sided in my opinion. I have a few match ups of ranked teams along with some other games that I think the upset is very possible. Many that I have seen have Wisconsin getting beat by Iowa even after taking down Ohio State easily last week. Since Iowa is the favorite I guess that my upset pick of the week is Wisconsin over Iowa. The Hawkeyes are a good team that plays well at home, but I think the two headed monster of Clay and White will be too much. J.J. Watt could also make a huge name for himself with another good game. Here is how I see things going this week:

• #7 Michigan State 35 – Northwestern 28
• #10 Ohio State 42 – Purdue 27
• #16 Nebraska 30 – #14 Oklahoma State 27
• #13 Wisconsin 23 – #15 Iowa 21
• Penn State 24 – Minnesota 19
• Illinois 17 – Indiana 10
• Notre Dame 31 – Navy 16
• #4 Auburn 38 – #6 LSU 35
• #1 Oklahoma 35 – #11 Missouri 23
• #1 Grand Valley State 41 – Ferris State 26

Minnesota at Purdue in 2000

I have changed the name from the game preview to game notes. I realized that I rarely preview anything, but instead ramble on about noteworthy aspects of the game. This is a special week because it is homecoming at Purdue. Even Minnesota has a stake in homecoming this week. Tim Brewster was a graduate assistant at Purdue as well as coaching Lafayette Central Catholic. This may be his last trip to Purdue as the Minnesota head coach so it is probably bittersweet. Jim (Chris) Everett will be in town as well as part of the 25th anniversary of his 1985 Boiler team. Bob Griese and his son Brian will be in the booth to call the game for ESPN as well. There have already been Joe Tiller sightings in Lafayette. He will be in attendance along with other members of the 2000 team that went to the Rose Bowl. At halftime they are going to recognize the 2000 Rose Bowl team down on the field. In honor of that team the Boilers will be wearing throwback uniforms that resemble the ones the Boilers had on in Pasadena. The helmets will have the rose through the P just like on New Years day in 2001. I was not able to attend that game so this will be a cool experience for me. I am sure that during the week this site will be flooded with pictures from the day.

How cool will it be to walk into Ross-Ade today and see the 2000 Rose Bowl uniforms on #15 who is making his first start at home? Rob Henry has led the Boilers in rushing for three straight games now. His 67 yard run at Minnesota was the longest for a Boiler quarterback since 1965. It is partially because of Henry that the Boilers have rushed for over 200 yards for four straight weeks. That is the most consecutive games since the Mike Alstott era. That is pretty impressive considering all of the injuries that the Boilers have endured in the backfield in that span. The flip side to that is the fact that the Boiler passing game is ranked 105th out of 120 teams in the FBS. Last week the Minnesota defense did not force a turnover or sack the quarterback. This could be the week that Rob Henry and the Boiler offense gets a little confidence. Part of the reason the Boilers have been playing better this season is the fact that they have kept turnovers to a minimum. They have only lost two fumbles all season which leaves them in a tie for third in the nation. The extra emphasis that the coaches put on ball security is paying off. They have only lost two fumbles all season, and it is no coincidence that both of them were against Toledo which was their only loss. One of those of course was the Marve fumble when he tore up his knee. Of course now that I talk up ball security they will cough it up a few times today. The Boilers got through the game against Northwestern with no injuries of note. When was the last time we could say that? The continuity of having the same guys taking snaps at the same positions for three weeks straight has to show dividends. The receivers are back at their positions, and the running backs appear to be healthy. I really think the offense will give us something to cheer about this week. This will be the first week they score the points that I predict they will.

The Boiler defense is led by Ryan Kerrigan. He has just been a beast this season. He has 13 tackles for a loss which leads the nation coming into the game. That is part of the forty tackles for loss that the defense has as a whole. That is good enough for 2nd in the Big Ten. The Boiler defense leads the Big Ten with 17 sacks as a team. The front line is really starting to come together. Freshman like Bruce Gaston as well as veterans like Kawann Short are enjoying the extra attention that Kerrigan draws. Short in particular has had a good run as of late. He was named co-Big Ten special teams player of the week for his performance against Northwestern. He got the award because of his field goal block. That was his second kick block on the season. He also has five pass breakups from the tackle position. Minnesota protects its quarterback well. The battle on the line will be the key to the game. If Purdue can get in the backfield they will walk away with this one.

The Boiler kicking game had a good week last week. Carson Wiggs used some extra practice to help him have a perfect day kicking the football. True freshman punter Cody Webster made some headlines with his 79 yard punt. Our kicking game has not been an issue. Kick coverage and returns have been an issue. Last week Josh Johnson took over the punt return duties. During the game he returned a punt two yards, and still beat the team average for the season. A big return would do a lot to help the Boilers go 2-0 in the Big Ten.

Let’s talk a little bit about Minnesota. They are led on offense by a fifth year senior quarterback Adam Weber. Weber holds numerous Minnesota records, but has really never led his team to a good season. He has endured a 1-11 season once already, and may be on track for another one. He has two big targets to throw to on offense in MarQueis Gray and Da’Jon McKnight. McKnight made two great grabs in the end zone last week against Wisconsin. As I said earlier they did not get to the quarterback last week. That may be because Wisconsin had such a good game on the ground. They only have one win this season, and that was a seven point victory at Middle Tennessee State. Purdue needs to get up early on these guys. They will come out firing after feeling disrespected last week. A quick lead could remind these guys that they are not good. Feelings of doubt could creep in, and the game could get ugly. Tim Brewster is fighting for his job, and needs a win badly. They are tied with Washington State for the worst record of any BCS school. I think that the stops will be out to start this game.

With a win today the Boilers will go to 2-0 in the Big Ten. If Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa all lose the Boilers will be alone atop the Big Ten on a day that they wore retro Rose Bowl jerseys. More importantly it would be their fourth win leaving them two shy of a bowl berth.

I have seen Minnesota play five previous times. They have lost four of those five games. Here is a list of the games that I have seen. If I have a write up about the game on the site I have added a link to that write up on the date.

• 10/1/94   Indiana 25 – Minnesota 14
• 10/3/98  Purdue 56 – Minnesota 21
• 9/23/00 Purdue 38 – Minnesota 24
• 9/23/06 Purdue 27 – Minnesota 21
• 10/25/08 Minnesota 17 – Purdue 6

I find it interesting that I have seen this game played twice on the same date in the short time that I have been attending Purdue games.

Predictions: Here is the interesting part of the blog. This is where I attempt to pick games. Last week I was 7-3 with my picks. Purdue once again came back and bit me. I had an upset special pick of #18 Wisconsin over #1 Ohio State, but all week long I saw this being picked as everyone’s upset pick. I think that I will still go with my gut on this one. I think Camp Randall will be rocking for this primetime game. I saved Purdue for last this week that way when I tabulate what I have done I can feel good until then. Here are the picks:

• #13 Michigan State 35 – Illinois 24
• #15 Iowa 31 – Michigan 27
• #5 Nebraska 34 – Texas 28
• Indiana 35 – Arkansas State 21
• #7 Auburn 31 – #12 Arkansas 30
• Ball State 34 – Eastern Michigan 17
• Notre Dame 42 – Western Michigan 16
• #1 Grand Valley State 42 – Lake Erie 10
• #18 Wisconsin 28 – #1 Ohio State 27
• Purdue 38 – Minnesota 27

Saturday the Toledo Rockets come to Ross-Ade Stadium to take on the Purdue Boilermakers. This is the second straight week that the Boilers will face an opponent from the MAC. After Saturday they get a week off so I have to find somewhere else to watch a game to start October. It is the first time in years that the Boilers have had a bye week during the season. It would be great to enter that bye week 3-1 before the start of Big Ten play. That would leave them just three wins shy of a bowl berth. I love going to warm places in the winter so hopefully the Boilers can get somewhere warm around the holidays. They fell one game short last season of a bowl, and two non-conference losses would have helped out big time. The Boilers must take care of business Saturday to keep their vacation plans on track.

Last season when these two teams met up they scored 83 points between them. A link to my blog on that game can be found here. I really don’t think that we will see that kind of offensive explosion from both sides on Saturday. Toledo is at the bottom of Division I schools in offense. They just don’t have a lot going for them right now. Of course the Boilers seem to have a way of bringing out the best in the opposing teams offense. This young group of Purdue defenders seems to be getting better each week. I think that Purdue wins this matchup of their defense versus the Toledo offense.

The Rockets have allowed the fourth fewest yards rushing in the country so far, but I think that is more because of the fact that they are near the bottom in passing yards allowed. The Boilers will probably still be running the running back by committee as they did last week so I think Robert Marve is the key here. How he bounces back from his knee injury last week will do a lot towards how much the Boilers can score. If Marve can stay in the game and play to his ability the Boilers can put up some points this weekend. Purdue wins this matchup as well.

The Rockets are porous when the ball is put in the air, but they are in the top ten in takeaways. Purdue so far this season has not lost a fumble. Last season the turnover battle was the difference in Purdue making a bowl, and sitting at home for the holidays. Ball security has been emphasized during the off season, and now during the season. It seems to have paid off to this point.

All of that being said I still really don’t have a clue as to how this game is going to pan out. Purdue has the ability to put the points on the board, but will they finally come out and do it? Will this be the week that the offensive line gels, and can hold their blocks? Will Robert Marve get into a groove against a lesser opponent? Will the Boilers continue to hang onto the ball? I don’t think that Purdue will lose this game, but the answers to these questions will determine how much they score. If they can get it together I think that they can approach fifty points like last season.

Predictions: Last week I went 10-0 to raise my overall record to 28-2 three weeks in. I actually had some scores close yet again. My guess are much more accurate when I don’t watch any college football shows during the week I guess. Here is how I did last week:

Michigan State 30 (34) – Notre Dame 27 (31)

#20 Michigan 41  (42) – UMass 17 (37)

#2 Ohio State 42 (43) – Ohio 10 (7)

#22 Penn State 38 (24) – Kent State 18 (0)

#11 Wisconsin 31 (20) – Arizona State 17 (19)

#18 USC 31 (32) – Minnesota 13 (21)

Illinois 35 (28) – Northern Illinois 22 (22)

Indiana 51 (38) – Western Kentucky 17 (21)

#8 Nebraska 30 (56) – Washington 21 (21)

Purdue 34 (24) – Ball State 20 (13)

This week I think is an easy one to pick. I only really see a couple games here that could go either way. Here are my week four picks:

#16 Stanford 35 – Notre Dame 27

#2 Ohio State 52 – Eastern Michigan 10

#6 Nebraska 56 – South Dakota St. 0

#23 Penn State 35 – Temple 10

#21 Michigan 41 – Bowling Green 24

#18 Iowa 41 – Ball State 7

#11 Wisconsin 51 – Austin Peay 0

#25 Michigan State 45 – Northern Colorado 3

Northwestern 27 – Central Michigan 24

Game of the Week: Purdue 48 – Toledo 17

Finally let me just say that two years ago I listed the Penn State games that I attended. I wrote about how IU lost by six, and that it cost the Nittany Lions a shot at the National Title. It was amazing how people decided to write me about how it was not as close as six points. I realize that games can be decided before the fourth quarter, but the final was still six no matter how many points were scored when. Penn State was clearly the better team that day.

Tomorrow I will be in the murder capitol of the world to watch my last football game of 2007. This has been a down year for football in my world, but hopefully it will end on a good note. Purdue was part of the bad year in football. They started off so strong scoring 52 points in their first two games. Then they faced Central Michigan in Ross-Aide Stadium on my brothers birthday. We raced off to a 24 point lead in the first quarter putting up huge numbers. The crowd thought that they would see a record setting performance like the one against Ball State in 2004. After the first quarter we just sort of phoned it in for the rest of the year. Central Michigan really took it to us in the second half, and more importantly we lost Jaycen Taylor with a broken arm. Taylor was the heart and soul of the team, and his presence was missed. He is back now, and should be part of a two headed monster at tailback tomorrow night. We won the game 45-22, but we looked very bad in the second half.
Central Michigan will not lay down like they did in the first half in September. They have a great quarterback that just had a bad first half. Looking at the stats LeFevour only ran for 26 yards, but I remember an option play that we could not stop. He would fake the run up the middle, then run around end. When we geared up for that the play would go up the middle. He is a great quarterback that will give our defense fits if we don’t put some pressure on him and contain him. He can beat us with both his arms and his legs. He is one of only two players to rush and pass for over a thousand yards in a season. The other player is Vince Young. That is pretty good company. I am watching the MAC Championship game from this year while I am typing this, and he has looked pretty good so far. The one mistake that I have seen him make was when he was pressured he threw into double coverage for a pick. The Chippewas had the best offense in the MAC, and we will have our hands full tomorrow night.
As I said earlier we scored 24 points in the first half. It should have been at least 35. Former Boilermaker Selwyn Lymon fumbled the ball on the 5 yard line when we were driving, and we blew another drive in the red zone and had to settle for the field goal. At the time we just thought that it was no big deal. We had an offense that could not be stopped. We found out as the season progressed that we just played some cupcakes early. I have seen all over that people are saying that Painter is the key tomorrow. That may be true to some extent, but I think our two headed monster at tailback and the line will be key. If we can establish a ground game and keep our defense off of the field we will be fine. During the Michigan State debacle all I kept saying was that we need some longs drives to let the defense rest. We did not get them, and the Spartans ran all over us. Taylor and Sheets need to take some of the pressure off of Painter. That being said, I would like to see Painter have a good game. I have been on his bandwagon since he took over for Kirsch, but I am only hanging on by one arm ready to jump onto another one. I love the guy, and still think he could be so much more, but I can tell who he is going to throw to through the viewfinder on my camera. He just does not seem to see the field. With the loss of Lymon we are down a reciever, but in the end we may be better off. Jake Standeford will take his place. We still have Orton and Bryant who can both be gamebreakers. Desmond Tardy will have to be a go to guy next year, so why not start one game early? I really think that good things can come from the offense tomorrow.
On another note tomorrow will be the last game for some of my favorite Boilers. Since I came back from Iowa I have followed the Boilers to every home game, and even most of the away games. I have really enjoyed watching these guys play for better or for worse. Hopefully we can get a win and send them out the right way.
Tomorrow is a do or die day for this team. We can win and build something toward next year, or we can lose and continue the slide that this team has been on. We have not won a bowl game since 2002. We have not scored a first quarter touchdown since the game against Georgia. We need to right some wrongs tomorrow. It may not be the bowl that we wanted, or a signature win, but a win is a win. I think that we will win, but the outcome will not be decided until the last couple minutes of the game. Go Boilers!!

My Prediction: Purdue 44 – Central Michigan 34.

The past two weeks the Boilers have been handed games in the second half. Last year we still would have lost those games. This year we have won both of them. Our defense will have to stop Lewis and Hardy to keep the Indiana offense down, and our offense will have to snap out of its funk if we hope to have a shot at this one. Last year Korey Sheets had a great game against IU. Let’s hope he can have another one this Saturday.

My prediction: Purdue 45 – Indiana 41

I have been to five previous bucket games in the last ten years. The Indiana weekend has usually produced lasting memories for me. Let’s see if this one can top the rest of them. Here is a brief look at the previous five meetings:

1. 11/18/2000 – Purdue clinches its first Rose Bowl against the Hoosiers in Ross-Aide Stadium. Montrell Lowe runs for 208 yards and 4 touchdowns in the win. Drew Brees leaves Ross-Aide Stadium for the final time a winner. Purdue wins 41-13

2. 11/19/2005 – The Boilers and Hoosiers meet with nothing on the line but pride, and the Hoosiers fail to defend the rock. Korey Sheets runs for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Boilers roll to a 41-14 victory. This was my first game back in Memorial Stadium since I was in the student section in 1994.

3. 11/21/1998 – Purdue wins easily 52-7 at Ross-Aide stadium. Drew Brees throws for 237 yards and 4 touchdowns for Purdue. Something else happened that weekend, but I can’t remember what.

4. 11/23/1996 – This was the last game for both Bill Mallory and Jim Colletto. The Hoosiers win one for their coach, and snap a 15 game conference losing streak in the process. This was my first bucket game. I went because I was a Purdue student who still knew the players on the Indiana team from my time there. Indiana wins easy 33-16.

5. 11/23/2002 – Exactly six years after my fist bucket game I saw Purdue beat the Hoosiers in Ross-Aide stadium again. The Purdue offense ran for 296 yards against the Hoosiers. Purdue won 34-10 to claim the 50^th P on the bucket.

Flashback: The only two previous times that I have seen Penn State play they were ranked #2 in the country. The first time was in 1994 at Indiana. The Nittany Lions came in and barely beat the Hoosiers 35 – 29. The close game against the hapless Hoosiers cost them a shot at the National Title at the end of the year. The second time that I saw them was in West Lafayette during the 1999 season. Purdue was ranked 16th playing the 2nd ranked team in the nation, and lost 31 – 25. 21 of Penn State’s points came courtesy of three Purdue turnovers. Lavar Arrington sacked Brees, and his fumble was returned for one of Penn State’s scores. Purdue had 4 shots at the end zone in the final minute, but all of the Brees passes fell incomplete.

The only game that I have seen in this series was back in 1999 when I was a student at Purdue. Ron Dayne was in the midst of his Heisman Trophy run, and ended up running for 222 yards against us as Wisconsin won 28 – 21. That game got him past Tony Dorsett for the second most rushing yards ever. He was only 98 back of Ricky Williams year old record which he got the next game. We had a fan in the student section wearing a Dayne jersey and cheering loudly only when he felt his team was going to win (very quiet the majority of the game). He took a mysterious fall at the end of the game and went down a couple of rows. The search continues for the gorilla that escaped from the zoo to send this young man down. The Boilers came into the game ranked #17 and the Badgers were ranked #10. Drew Brees threw for 350 yards with one touchdown, and also ran for 85 yards with two touchdowns. He threw two picks, the last one returned by Jamal Fletcher to clinch the victory for the Badgers. Dorsch missed three field goals that would have been the difference in the game. The game remembered by most Boilers is the 2004 game that saw national attention come to West Lafayette. Cold Pizza was there during the week, as well as the only appearance by College Gameday at Purdue. Purdue could have won that game, but a fumble by Kyle Orton at the end sealed the game. This is the Badgers first trip back since that game.

The prediction segment has not been going so good this year. This week I think the Boilers will lose 28 – 17. I don’t think the defense can stop the run, and they will contain us. I hope this is wrong, but I think it is right.

The biggest news to come out of the Purdue camp this week was the freak injury to Selwyn Lymon. He injured his eye Monday when a plastic pellet from a gun struck him while playing with teammates. The injury is not as bad as it was first believed, but he is still questionable for Saturday. Purdue is a seven point favorite. I think that they have the talent to win by much more. This is a young team though, and I think the score will be close. Purdue has played two straight oppenents in the top 20. Let’s see how they do against a team that is worse than them.

The last few weeks I have given my top games in the matchup. This week here is the top games I have been to involving Northwestern:

5. 10/22/1994 Northwestern wins at Indiana 20-7. I do not remember a lot about the game so it gets placed last. My girlfriend from back home came down to see the game, making it memorable for that reason only. Let’s face it, it was an Indiana/Northwestern game.
4. 11/15/2005 Purdue’s homecoming game is ruined by Northwestern 34-29. Dorien Bryant returned the opening kickoff of the second half 95 yards, and Purdue came back to take the lead late in the fourth quarter. Northwestern then drove right down the field for the game winning score. Purdue had 505 yards of total offense, and Northwestern racked up 603.
3. 9/25/1999 Purdue wins at home 31-23. Brees throws a 99 yard touchdown pass to Vinny Sutherland, and sets the Big Ten mark for touchdown passes in the process. The famous ‘Fay is gay’ chant is born.
2. 11/18/1995 My first game ever at Ross-Aide stadium. Yet another game in the ‘dream season’ of Northwestern. The ‘Cats win the game 23-8, and in doing so clinch the Big Ten Title.
1. 9/2/1995 The Wildcats come into Notre Dame 28 point underdogs, and get the win 17-15. This was the begining of the ‘dream season.’

3. 10/8/2005 Iowa 35 – Purdue 17 – Purdue has chances at home, but cannot pull off the upset. Tate throws for 357 yards for Iowa. Kirsch throws key pick that changes game momentum.
2. 10/31/1998 Purdue 36 – Iowa 14 – Brees throws for 362 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also sets the school mark for touchdowns in a season.
1. 11/6/2004 Iowa 23 – Purdue 21 – My first trip to Kinnick. Purdue came close, but could not beat the Hawkeyes thanks to turnovers. This seems to be a trend in these games. Orton was hurt, and played little. Kirsch had control most of the game, but could not lead the Boilers to victory.

7. 9/27/2003 Notre Dame looked horrible in this game losing 23-10. A Quinn to Stovall 85 yard TD pass is the lone highlight for the Irish. Notre Dame was close at the half, but never came out to play in the second half.
6. 12/1/2001 This game was played in December because of the attacks of September 11th. Neither team played real well, and Notre Dame wins 24-18 in Bob Davie’s last game as coach of the Irish. Vontez Duff’s 96 yard kickoff return is the highlight of the game.
5. 9/14/1996 Notre Dame runs all over Purdue at Notre Dame Stadium. Allan Rossum returns a kickoff 99 yards as the Irish win easily 35-0.
4. 9/24/1994 I came home from college to watch my first game in the series. Notre Dame easily handles the Boilers at home. Ray Zellars and Randy Kinder run for 156 and 143 yards respectively. Notre Dame wins 39-21.
3. 9/13/1997 My first game in the series at Ross-Aide. Notre Dame never got it going, and the Boilers snap an eleven game losing streak to the Irish. Fans storm the field after the game. I stayed in the Purdue Student section in disbelief. This game did mark the rebirth of the Boiler football program. Boilers win 28-17.
2. 10/1/2005 Notre Dame comes into Ross-Aide with revenge on their mind after getting pounded at home the year before. I found a cheap ticket on E-bay to get into the stadium and ended up in the middle of the Notre Dame student section. I had a great time watching the Irish pick holes in the Boiler secondary. Quinn threw for 440 yards in 3 quarters, and Samardzija had 153 yards receiving with 2 TD’s. Irish win 49-28.
1. 9/11/1999 Sitting in the Purdue student section for the second time in three years wearing Irish colors I watch Purdue stop Notre Dame four times at the goaline to seal a 28-23 win. Drew Brees diving over the pylon for a two point conversion is one of the memorable moments of the game.

Where will this years game end up on the list? Time will only tell.

Purdue comes into South Bend this weekend on a seven game winning streak. Notre Dame comes back home after pulling off a huge comeback last weekend. This game has all of the makings of being one of the great games of the series. On the other hand, Notre Dame could just run away with it. Both secondaries are the big question marks for their teams. The defense that plays the best will win this game. Purdue’s chances will depend on the arm of Curtis Painter as well. He may be without receiving tagets Greg Orton and Dustin Keller. They need Keller at tight end to have the types of games he has had the last two weeks. Brady Quinn and Jeff Samardzija should have a field day with the Boiler secondary. Notre Dame will have to come out and play from the begining of the game to crush the Boilers hope of an upset. If Purdue can hang with the Irish early, they will stay confident enough to possibly pull off the upset. This should be a great game.