As you know, the YM hit our 10,360 target last
week.  This was a big decision area as it was
the 50% retrace off the March lows.  Anything
can happen at this point.  It looked as if a rally
into the end of the year  was inevitable.

Then, news that Dubai would  have to delay its debt
payments rocked the markets.  The ES and YM sold off
back down to their daily 13s support.

Remember last week I said that we would likely be in some
consolidation with a potential spike up or down
that would settle back in the consolidation range.
Well, this is exactly what we have now.  The question
is, which way will they go from here?

Watch to see what market structures set up now in
the ES and YM.  Chances are a breakout of the consolidation
will happen off of one of  these market structure triggers.

On another note, the new ATM Trading System is nearing
completion.  You can check out the demonstration video here:

http://www.scalpersgold.com/products/atm/

Also, if you are struggling with cutting your losses short and
letting your profits run then check out the Scalper’s Gold
Trading System here:

http://www.scalpersgold.com/products/scalpersgold/

To Your Trading Success.

JM

www.scalpersgold.com

The YM hit a big target area last
week at 10,360 – the 50%
retrace area off the March lows.
Since then the YM and ES have
not been synchronized. What
may this mean for these markets
going forward? This weeks
video may offer some clues:

To Your Trading Success,

JM

www.scalpersgold.com

When I first started learning to daytrade, I used to get evry upset with myself over almost every mistake that I made. Once I realized what a negative approach that was, I identified the one and only time that I would allow myself to be really upset with me.

The time that I allow myself to be upset with me is when I do not follow my plan which is kin to loosing discipline.

This month (Nov.)  has been a very difficult month to trade in my opinion. To date there has been really only one trending day. Now there were two additional days that I will identify as quasi-trending days as they did not meet the typical criteria for a nice, smooth trend in OF or they started out in a definate trend, but then transformed into a range bound day.

For Debbie, months like this are very difficult for two reasons: (1) range bound conditions prevail; (2) when Debbie finally gets a trending day, all she can think about is what “was” for the past 8 days.

Now, the positive on today was that despite difficult conditions there was money to be made in specific stocks. Debbie had a plan for HIG if it trended. She took a hit trying to get in on the OR break but the hit was not a big one. Finall, she got the right price where risk could be managed and if follow through continued then the potential reward was great.

what happened next was, Debbie got spooked out of the position because HIG was moving contrary to the bias of the order flow from the open and the vix was not really making one have confidence in long positions. She took a loss.

HIG went on to move higher until about 11:45 ish. with a profit ptential of somewhere around .70 cents. Debbie spent the rest of the time trying to get back in and continued to take small losses which added up. Once HIG was not working Debbie switched stocks and made the situation worse.

Debbie is upset with herself, as a trader, for two reasons: (1) she did not stick with her plan;  and (2) she fell into an old pattern of trying to make losses back and, as a result, lost perspective on what was happening in the markets and on the stock charts.

The result  of the two above problems are Debbie overtraded and Debbie took an unnessasary negative hit on the P/L today.

The only way solve  reoccurring challenges, or any challenge to ones progress at all,  is to create a rule for the challenge and, more importantly, follow the rule in order to extinguish the problem.

here is what I am doing tonight.

First, I will write these two problems out a a sheet of paper, crumble them up, throw them away, and they will be gone forever. Second, tonight will be spent revising my trading plan and adding a couple more rules.

Profitable Trading ALL!

Debbie, EdD, MAED, BSED

In Investot’s Business Daily, Monday 11/16/09, in the Leaders & Success Section, the author outlines 10 secrets to success that are layed out right beside an article about Art Rooney (Steelers First Owner).

The ten secrets were listed as the following (sited from Investors Business Daily) and I have related each one to daytrading:

1. How you think is everything.

• In day trading where the majority are not succcessful (based on current statistical data), it is necassary to approach the task of learning to master the markets with the correct thinking that is anchored in the positive. Part of our thinking has to be graounded in realistic expectations, an attitude that demands winning, and an “I can do” mantality no matter what happens in any given moment at any given point in time.

2.  Decide on your true dreams and goals.

• Basically if you don’t know where you want to be and how you are going to get there then no one else can help you to get there. In trading, more so than any other profession, it is important to be specific in your overall dream and then break down goals into small steps that lead to bigger steps.

3. Take action.

• Nothing needs to be said here. Other than the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

4. Never stop learning.

• This is very important to trading. The learning componant never stops and unless one is willing to put in 12-15 hour days invested in his/her learning then being successful is unlikely.

5. Be persistant and work hard.

• More so than any other profession one must refuse to accept failure as an option in trading. And, then of course, be willinjg to do whatever it takes to achieve success in trading.

6. Learn to analyze details.

• Details in trading take us to the next level.

7. Focus your time and money.

• Like any business trading takes time and money. Invest both wisely and expect that you must do this. You will always need to put forth more time and more money to get better. A good business plan factors in these items as a part of the overall budget.

8. Don’t be afraid to innovate; be different.

• Someone else can give you everything they did to be successful but you won’t taste success until you make it your own and put your own twist on it.

9. Deal and communicate with people effectively.

• The best trading is not done in isolation. We also get more out of mentoring and interaction from peers when we can be great communicators.

10. Be honest and dependable; take responsibility.

• The key word here is really responsibility. We must take responsibility for our learning, actions, failures etc. That is the only way to see truthfully where we are in out trading, where we want to be, what we are doign that is not working, what is working, and what we need to change. Also, being dependable and reliable feeds into letting others know that you are worth them helping you. If you function “under the radar” noone knows how dedicated  and serious you really are.

In addition to the 10 success secrets outlined in Investors Business Daily, there was an article about Art Rooney right next to those success secrets. Art Rooney was quoted as saying,

One thing I learned from experience:

You are a genius when you win and plain dumb when you lose. Believe me, a fine line seperates the two.

I believe that balancing on that fine line by  implementing some form of the above 10 secrets  is the key to being a ”genius” and not a “dummy”.

Profitable Trading All

Debbie, EdD, MAED, BSED 

You know you are a daytrader when you go to the movies with loved ones and a line in the movie becomes you next daytrading blog post.

The movie was 2012. A movie about the end of the world and the preservation of the human race. the entire movie is filled with moments of natural disasters, crashing buildings, people meeting their end, and people who are trying to survive and perserve the human race.

Amongst the mass destruction where the south pole becomes located someplace in Wisconsin, it is not surprising that religion comes into play. Once scene includes a wise old monk speaking with a young monk who obviously has not attained the wisdom of the old man. As they are speaking the wise old man pours a cup of brown tea until it is overflowing. The young monk tells him to stop as the cup is overflowing. The old man stops pouring and explains,

 ”like this cup a man’s mind is overflowing with opinions and speculation.

You must empty  the cup in order to fill it with wisdom”

and the old man turned the cup over and emptied it. What, might you ask does this have to do with trading?

One great challenge that I believe developing traders struggle with is having opinions and allowing their minds to speculate concerning market behavior. In successful trading, there is NO….room…..NONE for opinions and specualtion. This came to my mind becasue I realized that many times I fall into thisn trap without even realizing it. It leads to frustration, disappointmentm and and overall feeling of failure.

What are some of the things that we say and do that show our lack of wisdom concerning market behavior.

1. We say things like, ” I am of the opinion”, “I think that”, “I believe that”….”It should do ..”.

2. We try to guess where the pull back will end instead of watching it, being in tune with it, and shutting out the signals that will show us it has ended.

3. We can’t adjust to changing conditions.

The bottom line is the market always does what it will. In order for us to exploit opportunities that unfold in market price action, we need to empty our minds of all opinions and speculations and gain the wisdom to see what is unfolding in front of us on the screen in this moment at  this particular time.

Profitable trading all!

Debbie, EdD, MAED, BSED

Well, we got the push I was expecting last week.
We came within about 50 points of 10,360 YM
which, as you should know by now, is a 50%
retrace off the March lows. There is a daily
market structure low formed in the ym. We’ll
see if they trigger it long or break it to the
downside as we get close to this critical
market juncture. Also, check out the
progress of the BKX and the XLK to see
if they leave us any clues.

To Your Trading Success,

JM

www.scalpersgold.com

After a rough week and a half of trading November is turning out to be a very difficult month to trade (at least for this developing trader). When an individual knows what to look for, how to act upon what she sees, and then is able to see it through and capitalize on it, one basically knows how to trade and needs to focus on developing skills and expertise in those skills.

One very important thing that a developing trader needs to be able to identify is when to pull back and just simply refocus. My criteria for knowing when I need to pull back and refocus are:

1. More loosing trades within a day than is my normal or average and more days that this happens.

2. Being engilfed in the feeling that others are making money and I am not.

3. Trading a trending day like a range bound day.

4. Being nervous about positions.

5. Skipping from chart to chart.

6. Knowing what should happen and then  rarely seeing it unfold in comparison to a good month.

7. Feelings of frustration that sounds like, “This worked before why not now?”

8. Feeling like you just want to kick your dog for no apparant reason (of course not really doing it).

9. Noticing that a  trend seems like a long lost friend who abandoned you and you are left empty asking why. 

10. Your P/L leaves much to be desired and you know that there is no reason, except for yourself, that your P/L is what it is. Basically you are left feeling disappointed in yourself.

What is important, once one knows that all the criteria for a difficult month are staring one right in the face, is that one recognizes and does the following…….

PULLS BACK  & REFOCUSES

I have come to realize that when the top ten items happen, which used to be devastating to this developing trader,  I simply pullback and refocus by doing the following. As these have become a part of my plan. Pulling back, to me, means….

 1. Going back to a lot of watching and sitting on my hands in wait for a trending day and/or a trending stock when most all variables (that make a great trading day) add up. For example, extreme tick readings, trending vix, momentum in the direction of the trend in market and stock, all indices making higher highs or lower lows, nice volume, and orderflow that just screams “find a spot to enter you dummy”.

2. It also means focusing a lot on my “pet” stock  and perhaps trading it exclusively.  This way I am able to capture momentum moves on range bound days.

3. It means having an intense  focus on finding “the”  move when it decides to happen and capitalizing on it with the appropriate share size.

4. It measn that my  average  total volume of shares  traded on a day or in a week is  cut way down.

All of the above helps this developing trader to refocus and capitalize on what little the market has to give at times or in times when the market seems a little Bi Polar and is basically difficult to read much of the time.

Profitable Trading ALL!

So if you are having a hard time this month pullback and refocus:)

Debbie

For success in anything you need to set short term and long term goals. Almost everyone knows this concept of goal setting. Something that I have realized lately is that I needed to break down my short term goals into shorter term goals in order to make sure to focus on consistency in my trading. Also, it helps my psychology to know that I am attaining my goals which will, overall, lead to attaining my bigger goals.

Simple Concept But Important

Profitable Trading All!!

Debbie

As always this developing trader continues to identify what works and what does not and then adjust accordingly. It is amazing that in this process of development (in trading) is really more about developing one’s self than it is developing trading skills (although I am not negating the importance of continuous skill development.

Even when one knows what to do and how to do it and knows that he/she can be profitable, there are demons that always show there ugly faces. The following are two that I have been fighting lately.

1. Overtrading as a result of not realizing soon enough the type of day it is.

This is specifically a result of misreading or being out of sync with what is actually unfolding in front of you.

2. Being the first mouse to get the cheese instead of waiting to be the second mouse.

In life we are taught to be the first to make sure that we get our needs met. In primary school all children fight to be first in line. In big families at dinner time if you don’t get what you want on your plate first then you get the leftn overs. However, in trading its the totally opposite. The first “mouse” gets slaughtered and the second “mouse” gets the best entry and capitalizes on a move that unfolds.

Profitable Trading All!!

Debbie

In dem Thread “NVidia NVDA” habe ich den Directional Movement Index erwähnt. Da es kein Indikator ist, der von jedem benutzt oder gekannt wird, hier eine kurze Video-Erklärung von einem US-Trader:

Quelle: http://www.informedtrades.com/

At the end of each day, moments of “what the heck happened today” or thoughts of “I can’t seem to trade myself out of a wet paper bag” flood the minds of developing traders like myself.

As is always the case, Debbie looks back at the charts for answers. In this case the SPY tells the whole story.

Monday (2nd): Spy opens strong, takes out opening range,  turns and sells off breaking previous day’s lows, loses its mojo down, and bounces back up and trades in the daily range from around 1:00 PM ON.

Tuesday (3rd): Spy opens in the middle of the previus day’s range.  The days price action  starts, remains, and finishes inside the day’s price action which was inside the previous day’s price action.

Wed (4th): Spy gaps up (above the previous day’s price action and trades in its daily range all day and then gets wild and crazy due to FOMC announcement. But despite announcement price action remains inside the day’s range.

Thurs, (5th): Spy opens strong, breaks out of opening range, trades sideways from 10:45 till the end of day making highs by a few cents at best and then pulling riught back into the days range. At 3:45 ish the Spy took out its high of day and closed close to it.

So, basically we have been range bound and even when there is movement such as in yesterday it certainly cannot be considered clean price action.

The bottom line is much of the opportunity presented this week has been stock specific and/or available but whippy.

If a trader kept losses small or has small gains then I would consider that a success.

Where should our focus be?

We need to keep focused on the important thing which is ….

With all of this challenging price action presented this week there is surly some  nice, smooth, methodical price action is right around the corner . Our job is to keep things tight until then and then kill it when we get it!!

Profitable trading all!

Debbie

After reflecting on my first three days of trading in November, I have once again been reminded of one important word. That word is…..

SIMPLICITY

Specifically, this first week of November 2009, has been rocky. As a developing trader I feel a little pushed around and a bit dizzy from all the up and down movement and mixed messages in direction.

The first day of November I traded well, followed by the second day where Debbie put on a few good  trades that did not follow through and a couple more that she got a little stubborn with, followed by today where Debbie took some heat, fought back, and ended the day with a little scrape.

While doing my homework, I realized that each day there has been opportunity and Debbie has been looking so hard for the opportunity while being afraid she’ll miss it and trying to make sure to check that all “things” line up for the almost perfect trade that when the actual opportunity arises Debbie is either late to the party or misses it all together.

The example today was HIG. Debbie got pieces of it but not what she should because she was late to the party.

The only thing that anyone would need to identify that HIG was the place to be short today is big, red, candles.

 As long as someone knew Red+Candles=Sell and keep selling as long as the candles remain big and red then that someone would have made their month in P/L today.

The point here:

Keep things real simple so that opportunity does not pass you by. Sometimes it really is as simple as

 RED+CANDLES=SELL, SELL, SELL

Profitable trading all!

Debbie

Ich trade vor allem Aktien aus dem Dax und amerikanische Werte, die über eine ausreichende Marktkapitalisierung verfügen. Nun stelle ich mal einen Wert vor bei dem mir das SetUp sehr gut gefällt: Principal Financial Group Inc. (Market-Capital: 7.94 B)

About The Principal

The Principal Financial Group^® (The Principal^®) is a leading global financial company offering businesses, individuals and institutional clients a wide range of financial products and services.

Our range of products and services includes retirement solutions, life and health insurance, wellness programs, and investment and banking products through our diverse family of financial services companies and national network of financial professionals.

Im daily Chart sieht man eine Unterstützungslinie(rot) und eine Seitwärtsrange, die durchbrochen wurde. Der 100-Tage Durchschnitt ist auch in greifbarer Nähe!

Es gibt auch zwei Widerstände. Einer davon bei 24,77$ und ein sehr hartnäckiger bei etwa 24$. Jetzt ist natürlich die Frage des Tages handelt es sich beim Ausbruch nach unten um einen Fehlausbruch?! Dem Aufwärtstrend geht sicherlich die Puste etwas aus, es werden keine höheren Hochs bzw. Tiefs gemacht, die Umsätze sind auch relativ dünn.

Hier übersichtshalber der Stundenchart:

Ich setze den Einstieg beim Durchbrechen der 24$ Marke mit einem Stop bei 25,1$.

The YM and ES were in a tug-of-war for much of the week with the ES being the weaker market.  Both markets though have formed daily market structure highs with short triggers at 9631 and 1029.25.  The weekly market structure high has also formed.  Check out tonight’s video to find out how the Banking Index may give us a heads up on market direction.

To Your Trading Success,

JM

www.scalpersgold.com

Hallo liebe Leser/-innen,

die letzten Wochen und Monate waren sehr spannend, gleichzeitig waren sie aber auch schmerzhaft und das nicht nur für Trader, sondern auch für Investoren und Otto-Normal Sparer (Lehman-Zertifikate Inhaber, die Verfechter von der Schlaftabletten-Methode eines Kostolanys u.v.m.).

Trotzdem bot aber auch die Krise zahlreiche Möglichkeiten, um bei rechtzeitiger Antizipation davon zu profitieren.

Hier der Tageschart vom Dax:

Dax daily

Im Tageschart ist man an der Unterstützungslinie angelangt, wobei der Trendkanal, der seit mitte Juli bestand hatte gebrochen wurde. RSI zeigt auch an, dass es durchaus Luft nach unten gibt. Meine Tendenz ist definitiv short. Wichtig wäre die Frage, ob es Anfang der Woche zu einem Throwback kommt.

In diesem Zusammenhang wäre es evtl. noch wichtig zu erwähnen, dass CIT pleite ist, hier ein Auszug aus Financial Times Deutschland:

Der größte US-Mittelstandsfinanzierer CIT ist pleite. Die 101 Jahre alte Bank hat einen Antrag auf ein Verfahren nach Kapitel 11 des US-Insolvenzrechts gestellt. Dieses übliche Verfahren im Fall der Zahlungsunfähigkeit bietet Unternehmen vor allem Schutz vor den Gläubigern. Nach eigenen Angaben vom Sonntagabend hat CIT Verbindlichkeiten von 65 Mrd. $. Dem stehen laut Mitteilung Vermögenswerte von 71 Mrd. $ gegenüber.

…

Die Insolvenz von CIT ist der größte Sturz eines amerikanischen Finanzkonzerns seit der Pleite der Investmentbank Lehman Brothers vor gut einem Jahr – und die fünftgrößte Pleite in der Geschichte der USA. Sie ist zugleich ein Alarmsignal für alle, die vor dem Hintergrund der konjunkturellen Erholung bereits von einem Ende der Finanzkrise sprechen.

My mentor Pete has said over and over again that re entry, small gains, and small losses are a part of capturing the move that one has been waiting for on any given day.

Testing the “waters” with small share size and quick fingers on the keys allows me to be able to know if my trading idea is still good. I have found that when it finally works out, I can see it and know that the right time has come to get in with some size and capitalize on the move.

Profitable trading all!!

Debbie

1. I will focus most on my “pet” stock JPM unless it becomes untradable (signified by really ugly unreadable charts in multiple time frames).

This was Debbie’s situation at the end of October.

Two  days left in the month, down by a small number net and being net flat on month was in sight which had become my new weekly goal for ending October. Debbie’s psychology was strong and ready for the challenge.

One day left in month, down by a bigger number  net and being net flat, with only one day left in the month, on the month slid into the distance and was still in sight but very fuzzy. Debbie’s psychology was weakened and sprinkled with grains of defeat. Ended day with big headache.

The last day of the month, entered day with an “I will make money today when opportunity presents itself’ attitude. Ended up on day by best number yet, and down by a very small number  net and being basically  alomost flat on month. I allowed myself to consider my goal of being flat on month achieved.  Ended day with big headache.

What did I do when the pressure was on?

1. I allowed myself to be angry and pout the night before the last day of month but by the end of night I made sure to shift my attitude from a pouty, negative one to a conquering, positive one. I had a headache due to the let down and stress.

2. I came into the last day of the month viewing it as a new day, one in which I would make money, and one in which when opportunity presented itself I would capitalize on it. I told myself “you know this, you can do this, you will do this”….be alert, be focused, pay attention, and the market will present something…you just have to see it”.  I ended the day with a headache due to intense focus on what I was doing.

3. The biggest thing……I did not give up and I did not just accept that my month was going to be a negative one. And more importantly, when I got to just barely flat on the month I booked the profit and took a position on sidelines and watched. I did not say that I had to get a few more cents to wipe out the measly little net negative number. I looked at the market, time of day, charts in front of me, and determined that it was just was not worth risking anything else. After all it was the last day of month too. I allowed myself to consider my goal of net flat on month achieved. This is important to my psychology and confidence.

Profitable Trading All!!

Debbie