Some will argue that the Detroit Tigers have the lineup to beat due to Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  Others say that the Yankees lineup with Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixiera, Robinson Cano, and Alex Rodriguez is the greatest of them all.  Others will argue that it is Ike Davis and Jason Bay, and we will mock them ferociously; however, the Reds seem to have what it takes to win.  The rotation can be thin at times with the inconsistencies at the back-end, but look at the front-end of that group…

Johnny Cueto has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball, compiling a 16-8 record, a 2.36 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP over his last 37 starts.  Mat Latos may not have great stats in 2012 (5-2, 4.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but the Reds are 8-2 in his last ten starts. Latos is also in the middle of the season, especially from May to July, where he is now 21-6 with a 2.90 ERA over his career during the early summer months.

What does all of this mean?  The Reds were as many as five games back and they were up as many as 3.5 games.  Now, they are three games up on both the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.  The Reds have gone 25-16 since April 15.  It’s too bad they aren’t the Chicago Cubs because they are 17-8 in day games after Thursday’s  12-5 stomping of the Cleveland Indians.

The Reds have a solid rotation and enough offense to matter.  The American League is filled with punishing offenses, but the National League has…good pitching?  With the dramatic decline of the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, the Cincinnati Reds are in an elite class in the National League.

The Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants are the only other teams in the National League with the rotation and lineups that can match the Reds.  Bryce Harper is the real deal and the Nats will, at least, ride Strasburg to the limits of his innings, not his talent.  The Dodgers have had issues with injuries in the rotation and to Matt Kemp, but they’ve managed to hold on thanks to Andre Ethier’s redemption season and Chris Capuano’s best Clayton Kershaw impersonation.  The Giants have had some success from their rotation and offense, definitely not from Tim Lincecum, though, and with the return of Pablo Sandoval from injury, they will be that much better.

However, if Votto and Phillips are clicking like they are right now and the Reds have the 1-2 punch of Cueto and Latos going, then they can sit back and hope that the likes of Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake take the steps necessary to keep the team in contention while infusing youth in the every day lineup.  With smart baseball, like Mesoraco plowing into Lou Marson for defensive interference and a free run (see here), and mediocre production from the spare parts, the Reds are a team to be reckoned with.

Though many of the Reds players were suffering from flu-like symptoms, everything went according to plan all series long. On Tuesday, Johnny Cueto pitched a complete game and the Reds won 7-1. On Wednesday, Latos went seven innings, Marshall handled the eighth and Chapman got the save. Reds 5, Indians 3. On Thursday, Leake seemed to still be under the weather and only lasted 4 2/3. Arrendondo, Simon, Hoover and LeCure each got work in and the Reds won 12-5.

All series long, Phillips couldn’t be stopped. He finished 8/13 with 7 RBI. Hopefully the trend continues; he tweeted that he intends on “taking a bite out of the big apple” this weekend against the Mets.

This is my favorite highlight of the series. Mesoraco intentionally runs into the catcher in a pickle between third and home. Priceless.

Injuries

• Stubbs has been out 10 days now and doesn’t look like he’ll even take batting practice till Saturday. In hindsight, it doesn’t make sense that he didn’t go on the DL, but who did they have to bring up? No one who’s been hitting, that’s for sure.
• Chris Heisey left the game in the 4th inning on Thursday with some tightness in his groin. Hopefully it’ll be okay tomorrow.
• Mesoraco also left the game on Thursday with pain in his side. He thinks it was just a cramp from dehydration.

Hamilton’s speed has long been viewed as both his calling card and his biggest assets.  While attending Taylorsville High School in Taylorsville, Mississippi (also the hometown of Chicago Bears’ quarterback Jason Campbell), Hamilton signed a letter of intent to play baseball and football (as a wide receiver) at Mississippi State University Bulldogs.  While at Taylorsville High School, Hamilton also starred on the basketball team, averaging 35 points per game.  While his hitting approach was considered raw, Hamilton’s elite speed, bat speed, and athleticism earned considerable praise.   Watch Hamilton hit and throw here:

After taking Arizona State right-handed pitcher Mike Leake with their first round pick (#8), the Reds took Southern California right-hander Brad Boxberger in the supplemental first round (#43), the Reds took Hamilton with the 57^th overall pick.  Shortly after the draft, Hamilton was asked if he was planning to attend MSU or sign with the Reds, and he replied:  “I think I’m going [with] baseball.  I really don’t know yet, but I’m pretty sure I am, though.   I’d rather start my whole career off now rather than later.”  Hamilton continued, saying that baseball was his first love and he was anxious to grab hold of the opportunity to play professional baseball.

Hamilton signed and was assigned to the Rookie Level GCL Reds of the Gulf Coast League and immediately struggled in his first experience in professional baseball, hitting a putrid 205/235/277, striking out 47 times in 43 games.  One area where Hamilton had success was in stealing 14 bases despite only getting on base 45 times, showcasing his world-class speed.  After the season, Hamilton was viewed as little more than a speedster with impressible tools and tremendous upside who was far from actualization.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked Hamilton the #10 prospect in the Reds’ system, commenting that Hamilton is “far more of an athlete than a baseball player at this point” and Hamilton had “little feel for the strike zone,” as was evidenced by his high strike out total.  Baseball America ranked Hamilton the #11 prospect, echoing many similar comments to Goldstein’s.

In 2010, Hamilton was held back in extended spring training for extra instruction before being assigned to the Rookie Level Billings Mustangs of the Pioneer League, where the improvement was stark.  In 69 games, Hamilton put up a 318/383/456 line with 13 doubles, 10 triples, and two home runs.  More amazingly, Hamilton stole 48 bases in 57 attempts and struck out 56 times, or approximately three every five games.  While in Billings, Hamilton played 13 games at shortstop and 55 games at second base, fueling speculation that the Reds did not view Hamilton as a shortstop in the long-term.  After the season, the accolades began rolling in.  Baseball America ranked Hamilton the #2 prospect in the Reds’ system, behind only Cuban fireballer Aroldis Champman, along with naming Hamilton the “Fastest Baserunner” and “Best Athlete,” and projecting him as the starting second baseman for the 2014 Reds.  BP’s Kevin Goldstein ranked Hamilton the #3 prospect in the Reds’ system, behind Chapman and Devin Mesoraco, stating that “[i]f one could give a grade higher than 80 for speed, Hamilton would certainly earn it. He is arguably the fastest prospect in the game, with the kind of blinding speed that turns any ground ball to the left side into an adventure. He’s already a potent basestealer who swiped 48 bags in just 69 games and was safe on 29 of his last 30 attempts.”  Goldstein questioned Hamilton’s ability to stay at shortstop, but commented that his value as a second baseman who bats leadoff was incredible.  Goldstein ranked Hamilton the #46 prospect in all of baseball, comparable to Baseball America, who ranked Hamilton #50.

Around now is when I became aware of Billy Hamilton, from episode 19 of Up and In: The Baseball Prospectus Podcast, where Goldstein and Jason Parks each picked three prospects that they felt would have breakout seasons in 2011.  While there were other players picked that were more universally renowned (Goldstein would later pick Bryce Harper) and Parks joked (maybe not as much of a joke) that he “wanted to pick all Royals.”  After Parks picked Yankees’ catcher Gary Sanchez, Goldstein picked Hamilton as his “speed guy,” though Parks did not select that way.  Goldstein stated that the issues with Hamilton were that he was from a small town in Mississippi and was very thin and not a classic athletic frame.  Calling Hamilton “raw like sushi,” Goldstein discussed Hamilton’s issues in his first season in professional baseball and the work done by the Reds to make Hamilton into a better player, specifically pitch recognition, making contact, and using his speed to get on base.  Projecting Hamilton as the type of guy who would hit .300, draw some walks, hit tons of triples, and steal 60 bases, Goldstein extolled his virtues while cautioning that Hamilton may never develop enough strength to become a good enough hitter to use his speed.

Assigned to the Full Season A Dayton Dragons of the Midwest League for 2011, Hamilton caused a buzz, hitting 278/340/360 with a mind-boggling 103 steals in 123 attempts.  Hamilton’s season is more amazing when broken down by month or by half.

By Month:

By Half (approximate – April through June and July through September):

The differences are stark:  Hamilton hit 228/284/315 in the first half and 333/396/410 in the second half.  While his isolated power was never impressive (and many of his doubles and triples were a direct product of his crazy speed), Hamilton’s batting average spiked in the second half as he showed improved plate discipline and improved contact rates.  This can be shown by his improvement in SO/PA rate by month and half:

Hamilton’s strike out rate was higher for the first three months of the season than for any of the final three months, which coincided with his increased batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and nearly any other simple metric used to measure performance.  Amazingly, Hamilton’s rates in July and September were lower than his overall rate, and his August rate was only slightly above his season average, truly splitting Hamilton’s seasons into two separate halves.

Unlike many young players appearing in their first grueling full season of professional baseball, Hamilton did not decrease his stolen base rate (0.75 SB/game in the first half and 0.77 SB/game in the second half) as the season wore on, even spiking in rate in September as he went all out in an attempt to steal 100 bases, stealing eight in his final four games.

After the season, the prospect prognosticators took note, as Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus ranked Hamilton the #22 prospect in baseball and the #1 prospect in the Reds organization, saying that Hamilton “has been known to go from first to third on singles to left field, has scored from second on sacrifice flies, and is a threat to steal both second and third whenever he reaches base.”  Baseball America agreed, ranking Hamilton the #48 prospect in baseball and #2 prospect in the Reds organization (behind Devin Mesoraco).  Baseball America further named Hamilton the “Fastest Baserunner” in the Cincinnati Reds’ system and the Midwest League, along with the “Best Athlete” in the Reds’ system, and the “Best Baserunner” in the Midwest League, all in 2011.

Entering 2012, there was a lot of focus as to how well Hamilton would be in the High A California League.  While the California League is one of the most hitter-friendly leagues, if not the most hitter-friendly league, many hitters often abandon their approach in search of the long ball, causing many hitters to increase power numbers while increasing strikeout totals.  Hamilton started the year by blasting a home run in his second plate appearance for the Bakersfield Blaze in the season opener.  Through his first two months of the season, Hamilton put up a robust 319/395/448 line with an astonishing 57 stolen bases in 69 attempts.  Despite only the single home run hit in the first game, Hamilton’s slugging percentage has been fueled by ten doubles and seven triples.  Flying around the bases, Hamilton has been lighting up the California League while decreasing his strikeout rate (.8 per game for the season, down from 1 per game in 2011) while increasing his walk rate (.5 per game, up from .39 per game).

In responding to a question about Hamilton turning into Joey Gathright (basically an athlete with great speed who never put it all together despite being able to jump over a car), Goldstein responded, “He’s way better than Gathright, and faster. Almost zero chance to stay at SS, and I think they should move him to CF today.”  Moving Hamilton to centerfield has been a common refrain, with Ben Badler of Baseball America stating “I think the Reds will try to keep him [at shortstop], but when you have the fastest player in all of baseball, I’d just put him in center field and let his speed take over.”  Matthew Eddy of Baseball America echoed similar sentiments but for a slightly different reason, stating that Hamilton is “facing a likely shift to center field if he plays his way off shortstop.”

But how fast is Billy Hamilton?

From Baseball America’s Jim Callis:

Hamilton. @treyhickman: Who's the faster phenom: Mike Trout or Billy Hamilton? #Angels #Reds—
Jim Callis (@jimcallisBA) May 27, 2012

From the ever-entertaining duo at Productive Outs:

This is a thing now. RT @stocktonports Ports score run in the first … Blaze answer with a "Billy Hamilton" run in the bottom half.—
Productive Outs (@ProductiveOuts) May 17, 2012

From Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein:

Yes. RT @tpgMets: @Kevin_Goldstein Safe to say Hamilton's the fastest professional ballplayer at any level?—
Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) May 11, 2012

Of course, if you don’t believe them, check out a few amazing facts unearthed by Baseball Prospectus’ Sam Miller:

• Pitchers have committed three balks while Billy Hamilton was on base.
• Billy Hamilton has scored from third when the catcher threw to first to complete another batter’s strikeout.
• And Billy Hamilton scored the walk-off run on April 20 on a sacrifice fly. To the second baseman.

Of course, what’s most amazing is that it appears that Billy Hamilton has no nickname.  I have seen a few referring to him as “Sliding Billy” in reference to Hall of Famer Billy Hamilton, but he played more than 100 years ago (though he was also a great base stealer – stealing 100 four times and 914, good for third all time, for his career) in an entirely different era.  Hamilton needs his own nickname and I think this is as good as a situation as any to come up with one.

I’m going to propose a few, please feel free to vote for one or tweet at me and I will add your suggestion to the list.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hamilt002bil

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2009&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090609&content_id=5228292&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?draft_round=1&year_ID=2009&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

http://www.nems360.com/bookmark/2686528/blog+entry-Hamilton+Drafted+by+Reds-+Likely+Going+Pro

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9988

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611110.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12880

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa500815&position=SS&type=&gds=2011-04-07&gde=2011-09-10

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16736

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15854

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/89332

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612581.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12121

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa500815&position=SS

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613349.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613393.html

https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/206864213040312320

https://twitter.com/ProductiveOuts/status/202957249243652098

http://twitter.com/#!/Kevin_Goldstein/statuses/200846246875901953

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16736

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/18505512

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090609&content_id=5228292&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/05/02/scouting-report-billy-hamilton-ss/

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/17/3025083/prospect-of-the-day-billy-hamilton-ss-cincinnati-reds-scouting-report

http://www.bakersfieldcalifornian.com/sports/x796275155/BLAZE-PLAYBILLY-BALL

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2009&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

The Good

Devin Mesoraco- Mesoraco of the Cincinnati Reds gave them a 5-2 lead in the 6th inning with a grand slam off of Atlanta Braves reliever pitcher Kris Meldon leading the Reds to a 6-3 win, keeping them 1 game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL central lead.

Yadier Molina- Despite the lose to the to the Philadelphia Phillies, Molina had 4 hits including a two-run home run to go along with 3 singles, and 3 rbis

David Wright- Wright added to his N.L. leading batting average .405 with 3 hits including a two run home run, a double, and 2 rbis in their 11-5 lose to the Padres. Wright has 14 hits over his last 10 games.

The Bad

Jeremy Hefner- The New York Mets starting pitcher could only go 3.2 innings giving up 9 hits and 6 earned runs in the 11-5 lose to the San Diego Padres. Hefners era is now 6.07 on the season.

Matt Adams- The St. Louis Cardinals first basemen struggled going 0-4 with 3 strikeouts against the Phaldelphia Phillies. The seasons young for Adams as it was only his 5th start of the season.

Javier Lopez- The Giants reliever went 1 inning giving up 4 hits and 4 runs in the win against the Miami Marlins.

The Ugly

Miami Marlins- The Marlins pitching staff combined to give up 15 hits and 14 runs in the lose to the San Francisco Giants. 13 of  the 14 runs scored game after the 5th inning.

Coach Tom

Rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco capped a series full of homers with his first career grand slam on Thursday night, leading the Cincinnati Reds to a 6-3 victory over the Atlanta Braves. The Reds completed their first four-game sweep of the Braves in Cincinnati since 1980 at Riverfront Stadium. They’ve won six straight, their longest winning streak since August 2010 when they started their push toward the NL Central title. The teams combined for 16 homers — 13 solo shots — accounting for 21 of the 24 runs in the series. Mesoraco connected off Kris Medlen, who relieved Randall Delgado (2-5) with the bases loaded in the sixth. Drew Stubbs added a solo shot for Cincinnati. Homer Bailey (3-3) gave up four hits in six innings, including Michael Bourn’s two-run homer.

Monday April 30th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): This offseason, I told myself (and others) to stay away from names like Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton. It wasn’t even a question. There was no way Kemp could repeat his 2011 season (and his .380 BAPIP). But he appears to be on his way to surpassing last year and making a hard push towards the triple crown. Josh Hamilton, who I also intentionally stayed away from, simply cannot be counted on to play 150 games. Hamilton has had a Kemp-like start to the season and is also single-handedly carrying fantasy teams throughout the first month of the season. However, he did leave Sunday’s game with back tightness (out Monday as well) and this could be a start of a trend that we have seen in seasons past. 

On the pitching side, Jake Peavy was another guy who fell in the same category as Hamilton, having only made 39 starts in his 2.5 seasons with the White Sox. Furthermore, the results were poor in those starts as he transitioned from a pitcher friendly park in baseball’s weakest hitting division to the American League.  But even more of an afterthought in addition to the health concerns, was Peavy’s transition from the NL West and the most pitcher friendly park to the hitting friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field. However, Peavy looks like the Peavy of old and is pitching like a number one type pitcher again.  But will that last? Are you prepared to take that gamble?

So, needless to say, I missed out on some of the league’s top fantasy performers to-date. Furthermore, having spent 20% of my budget on Albert Pujols, I am not sitting as pretty as I expected coming into the season. However, craftiness on the waiver wire (Alfredo Aceves, Hector Santiago, Pedro Strop, Scott Downs, Henry Rodriguez, etc.) have helped me acquire assets to make up for the void left by Pujols. But consider this. Despite currently sitting in fourth place in my league (with Pujols yet to do anything), I am finding myself tempted to trade Pujols for Bryce Harper and Nolan Arenado. Obviously a keeper league, Harper and Arenado might be the two hottest keeping prospects to come down the pipe in some time.

The Nationals surprised everyone with the promotion of Harper, who was actually struggling in AAA. I think he will be here to stay, even when Zimmerman returns. Although we cannot expect instant success, Harper will certainly be an impact player. Fellow top prospect Mike Trout was also recalled this weekend. While Trout has struggled in comparison to Harper after the first couple of games, he had a lot of success last season while torching minor league pitching. Both guys will have their ups and downs, but can be contributors this year as fourth outfielder types, and obviously their keeper value is extremely high.

However, there is a lesser-known prospect, mentioned earlier, Nolan Arenado, who intrigues me the most as a keeper. Arenado, the Rockies top prospect, only 21 years of age, is having great success in AA with a .860 OPS. Colorado is incredibly high on him and impressed the coaching staff and teammates in spring training. Furthermore, there is nobody standing in his way at the third base position in any level for the Rockies. It’s not out of the question for him to be called up in June, and he could make an immediate impact. His 3:4 BB/K ratio is very encouraging, and the prospect of playing 81 games in Colorado in future seasons further increases his stock. This is a must know/own guy in keeper leagues.

Another guy I am really high on, but you will need to remain patient with, is Devin Mesoraco. He is currently getting 40% of the starts behind the plate in Cincinnati, but he is clearly the superior hitter to Ryan Hanigan. In his limited at-bats, Mesoraco is boasting a .300/1/3 statline and will only steal more at-bats as the season progresses. He is a great guy to target as someone who can contribute this year, but also in future years to come as he has a very solid track record with the bat.

Jose Altuve, unfortunately longer a secret, was a player I mentioned to target as both an instant contributor and someone with keeper value. He is currently a hitting machine (.373/1/10/4), and although I expect his numbers to regress a bit, will soon be a top-ten option at second base.

Lastly, if you are looking for help in the outfield, particularly if you own Chris Young, Gerardo Parra offers great value. He has displayed amazing speed (seven steals) and his decent enough pop and is batting at the top of the order to produce all around numbers. If he continues to be productive, it will be curious to see how his role changes when Young returns and with Kubel in left field.

Ultimately, I still believe in Pujols and my team’s ability to finish in the money (top-3). However, it is tempting to unload him, as I am really high on guys like Harper and Arenado. Think about today, but also remember to keep your fantasy team competitive for years to come.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein)***

Please e-mail us at: mlbreports@me.com with any questions and feedback.  You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.  To subscribe to our website and have the Daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage. 

Drew Stubbs had three hits and drove in three runs to lead the Cincinnati Reds to a 9-4 win over the Chicago Cubs on Friday — the 10,000th victory in franchise history. Homer Bailey (1-2) gave up four runs, just one earned, over seven innings to get his first win of the year. Chris Volstad (0-2) was charged with six runs, five earned, over five innings. He gave up four in the first inning as Cincinnati batted around for the first time this season. Jay Bruce and Devin Mesoraco had two hits apiece and Chris Heisey drove in two runs for the Reds. Bryan LaHair had two more hits for Chicago and is batting .375 on the year.

I can tell you I have had the pleasure of watching both of his starts this season and he has really come a long way from when he played with the Reds. Kyle Lohse has been very successful this season with his sinker. He has thrown in 73 times (40%) in two starts and 64.4% were strikes with 38.4% swings, 2.7% whiffs, 11.0% foul and 24.7% of them in play. (Mostly right to a position player to get the easy out.) His slider is also another pitch that has been very effective for him early this season. He has thrown it 40 times (23.3%) 62.5% strikes, 42.5% swung on and 7.5% whiffs. 7.5% were foul and 27.5% were in play. His change-up is what many announcers are praising right now though. He has thrown it 28 times (15.6%) with 64.3% strikes, 60.7% swing, 17.9% whiff, 25% foul and 17.9% in play. He has also thrown a 4-seam fastball this season 25 times (14%) with it also being a high strike pitch at 60%. 40% swing, 0% whiff and 20% both foul and in play. He threw a curveball 13 times this season. (7.3%) 53.8% strike, 23.1 swhing and 7.7% whiff, foul and in play. These stats can be all seen at pitch/fx

When the Reds faced Kyle Lohse this season at home he threw his sinker 39 times (43.3%) with it clocking in at 88 mph and 59% of them being strikes. 38.5% were swung at while 5.1% were whiffs, 12.8% foul and 20.5% in play. His slider was thrown 18 times (20%) and were in the strike zone 66.7% of the time with 44.4% swung on, 5.6% whiff, 11.1% foul and 27.8% in play. He threw his change-up and 4-seam fastball 14 times that game both seeing pretty good results versus the Reds hitters. They both hit the strike zone 71.4% with the change-up getting 64.3% swing and the fastball getting only 50%. His change-up had 7.1% whiff while his fastball got 0%. Change-ups in play was at 21.4% while his fastball got 28.6% in that game. He also threw his curveball 5 times (5.6%) with 40% strikes and 20% swing and foul. During this game he had a groundout rate of 29.17% and a flyout rate of 16.67%. 8.33% was the number for lineouts, strikeouts, pop outs and singles. 4.17% was double, intent walk, triple, hit by pitch and sac fly.

Kyle Lohse vs. Zack Cozart (4/10/12) [Source]
Lohse threw his slider 4 times, (44%) 75% strikes, 50% swung on with 50% in play. He also threw his change-up and sinker 2 times each with his change-up in the strike zone 50% and his sinker 100%. Cozart swung at his change-up 50% with 50% fouled off also while doing nothing with his sinker. Lohse also threw his cuverball once which was a ball. Cozart groundout, got hit by pitch and tripled.

Kyle Lohse vs. Joey Votto (4/10/12) [Source]
Single, lineout and sac fly were the results when these two faced for the first time this season. Lohse threw Votto 5 4-seam fastballs and 5 sinkers along with 1 change-up. His fastball and sinker hit the strike zone 80% while his change-up was a foul ball. Votto swung at his fastball 60% and his sinker 40% fouling off the fastball 40% and putting it in play 20%. Votto put his sinker into play 40% also.

Kyle Lohse vs. Scott Rolen (4/10/12) [Source]
Flyout, lineout and groundout with 4 sliders, 3 sinkers, 2 4-seam fastballs and 1 curveball. 25% slider strikes, 66.7% sinker strikes, and 100% 4-seam fastball strikes with the curveball being a ball. Rolen swung at the sinker (66%) and fastball *50%) putting them in play.

Kyle Lohse vs. Jay Bruce (4/10/12) [Source]
Double, Strikeout and single with 8 sinkers, 7 change-ups and 1 curveball. 37.5% sinker strikes, 71.4% change-up strikes and 100% curveball strikes. Bruce swung at the sinker 25% and his change-up 57% while his curveball was just a called strike. Jay whiffed at the sinker 25% and the change-up 14% while fouling it off 14.3% and putting it into play 28.6%.

Kyle Lohse vs. Chris Heisey (4/10/12) [Source]
Groundout, flyout and pop out with 9 sinkers, 2 change-ups, 1 4-seam fastball and 1 slider. 55.6% sinker strikes with every other pitch being 100% strikes. 0% whiffed at which is very impressive for Heisey. 33% sinker fouls, 100% change-up fouls and 100% slider fouls with 22.2% sinkers in play and 100% 4-seam fastballs in play.

Kyle Lohse vs. Drew Stubbs (4/10/12) [Source]
Groundout and strikeout with 5 sliders, 2 sinkers, 2 4-seam fastballs and 1 change-up. 80% slider strikes and 50% sinker strikes with Stubbs swinging at the slider 40% and fouling it off 20% and putting it into play 20%.

Kyle Lohse vs. Devin Mesoraco (4/10/12) [Source]
Intentional walk and pop out with 1 slider and 1 4-seam fastball both strikes with Mesoraco swinging at the slider and putting it into play.

Kyle Lohse vs. Willie Harris (4/10/12) [Source]
2 groundouts and a flyout with 5 sinkers, 3 4-seam fastballs, 2 curveballs and 1 change-up. 80% sinker strikes, 66% fastball strikes, 50% curveball strikes and 100% change-up strikes. Harris swung at the sinker 60%, fastball 66%, curveball 50% and the change-up 100%. Fouling off the sinker (40%) fastball (33%) and the curveball. (50%) He put the sinker in play 20% and the fastball 33% with also putting the change-up in play.

Kyle Lohse vs. Mike Leake (4/10/12) [Source]
Flyout and groundout with 5 sinkers and 3 sliders. 40% sinker strikes while he threw 66.7% slider strikes. Leake whiffed at the slider 33% and put it into play 33%. He put the sinker in play 20%.

                                                                
                    PA  AB  H HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS
Willie Harris       31  27  6  0   1  2  1 .222 .276  .222  .498
Scott Rolen         21  18  4  1   2  2  1 .222 .333  .444  .778
Jay Bruce           19  18  6  1   4  1  6 .333 .368  .667 1.035
Brandon Phillips    18  16  4  0   1  1  2 .250 .278  .313  .590
Ryan Ludwick        16  15  3  0   2  1  6 .200 .250  .200  .450
Joey Votto          15  14  5  0   1  0  4 .357 .333  .500  .833
Ryan Hanigan        12  10  1  0   0  2  1 .100 .250  .200  .450
Drew Stubbs          8   7  0  0   0  1  2 .000 .125  .000  .125
Wilson Valdez        5   4  1  0   0  1  1 .250 .400  .250  .650
Zack Cozart          3   2  1  0   0  0  0 .500 .667 1.500 2.167
Chris Heisey         3   3  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Bronson Arroyo       2   1  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Homer Bailey         2   2  0  0   0  0  2 .000 .000  .000  .000
Johnny Cueto         2   2  1  0   0  0  0 .500 .500  .500 1.000
Mike Leake           2   2  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Devin Mesoraco       2   1  0  0   0  1  0 .000 .500  .000  .500
Miguel Cairo         1   1  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Mat Latos            1   0  0  0   0  0                        0
Total              163 143 32  2  11 12 26 .224 .289  .336  .625

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/16/2012.

10, 6, 8, 3, 4, 14, 5, 5, 2.

Keep in mind that the 14 hits they had against the Cardinals on Wednesday, they left 13 on base, and the 10 hits from Opening Day had 9 left on base.  The Reds just aren’t scoring enough runs because they can’t get any hits.  They haven’t had the easiest schedule in the world with the new-look Miami Marlins, the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals, and the improving Washington Nationals, but a 3-6 record wasn’t what fans and ownership was looking for as the team heads into win now mode.

You can’t blame Zack Cozart (.313), Joey Votto (.290), or Brandon Phillips (just 16 at bats due to injury to hamstring, .250), but just about everyone else could be labeled an issue.  Jay Bruce has 3 HR and 6 RBI with an .802 OPS, but he has 8 K’s in 34 at bats and a .235 average.  Drew Stubbs is at .147 with 12 K’s in 34 at bats, certainly not improving on his atrocious contact rate that worried the club last year.  Ryan Ludwick (.150), Ryan Hanigan (.118), and Scott Rolen (.111) round out the apparent regulars, while Devin Mesoraco (.167 in 12 at bats) and Chris Heisey (.188 in 16 at bats) continue to be youngsters losing out to the veteran loving, toothpick toting Dusty Baker.

Regardless of who is playing, it doesn’t seem to be working.  As the Reds looked to capitalize on the departure of NL Central foes Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the long-term commitments and trades developed expectations that, to this point, they have fallen well short of.  With such dynamic talent in Votto, Phillips, and Bruce, the lineup is capable of more.  The issue could be Phillips’ absence, the fact that Dusty HAS TO split up Votto and Bruce (and has done so with Scott Rolen and Ryan Ludwick in the clean-up spot), or it could be a challenging schedule.  Expectations are high and if they keep flopping like they are, fans aren’t going to show up in Cincinnati, and if fans don’t show up, they already need to start wondering about how they are going to be paying Phillips and Votto in the coming seasons.

The time has come to make bold predictions that will invariably be shown to be false over the course of the season. I have done the standard awards along with a few others and standings for the upcoming season, with a short explanation on each. More than anything these are based on hunches (as is any real prediction), I did not use any statistical modelling, I didn’t run through any simulators, I just took what I know about the players, their past statistical performances, incorporated that with some players having changes of venues affecting their park factors, and went with it. I did look at a lot of projections but ultimately I agreed with some, didn’t see eye to eye on others. So here without further adieu are my picks for the season may I be perfectly correct.

American League West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – It pains me to put them in first place. They and the Rangers are not separated by much. While there is a part of me that says the Rangers still are largely the same, the Angels certainly are not. I am the #1 anti-fan of C.J. Wilson but his subtraction from the Rangers and addition to the Angels makes the Angels rotation that much better. Even if Wilson regresses and he is the fourth best behind Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana this rotation is great. The bullpen will benefit from the addition of LaTroy Hawkins and while I question Jordan Walden, the middle relievers look to be good again. Offensively the Angels look solid and will benefit from the return of a player I really enjoy watching in Kendrys Morales. Of course, the addition of Albert Pujols will not hurt one iota and improves the lineup. I have to think Vernon Wells will improve. Peter Bourjos remains one guy I think is a phenomenal and exciting player to watch and that says nothing of Mike Trout who is Bourjos-plus. In the addition by subtraction column the Angels will love the loss of Jeff Mathis.

2. Texas Rangers – Rangers aren’t far off, hey they are two time American League champs now coming within an out of the World Series title what 82 times last October? I didn’t like the pitching last year and I really don’t like the pitching this year. So much hinges on Yu Darvish. Darvish could be great, but he also could be just so-so. I expect him to be great, which will help this club because I think Derek Holland and Matt Harrison are both subpar. World Series and Division Championship clubs aren’t headed by number one pitchers in Colby Lewis, hence Texas is a number two team. Offensively they cannot go wrong. Scary lineup. Scary bench. But pitching wins ballgames and Los Angeles has pitching.

3. Oakland A’s – Just as the Angels and Rangers aren’t separated by much neither are the A’s and M’s. But I give the A’s the edge, their offense is a little bit more refined than it was in the past and their pitching is solid. I think the A’s have a bit more depth, particularly in the outfield/DH spots. It won’t be a great year in Oakland, but it will be an interesting team to watch. Tommy Milone will be a real surprise and potential Rookie of the Year candidate, along with the more obvious Rookie of the Year candidate in Yoenis Cespedes. If Jarrod Parker or Brad Peacock really excel this team could find themselves with excess pitching by the time Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson return.

4. Seattle Mariners – There is no offense on this team. I expect Ichiro Suzuki to continue his decline. I expect Chone Figgins to show no signs of life. I do like Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero could be a very exciting ballplayer and I expect some breakouts from Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders. But there are too many question marks on this team. The bullpen is shaky outside of Brandon League, it is only a matter of time before people sit on Tom Wilhelmsen‘s offspeed stuff. Outside of Felix Hernandez the M’s don’t really sparkle with their pitching.

American League Central

1. Detroit Tigers – There is no way any team other than the Detroit Tigers wins this division. Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera form a fearsome combo and with Justin Verlander heading the rotation the Tigers arguably have three of the American League’s best players. No one else in this division is even close. I expect Brennan Boesch to really break out this year and the very underrated bullpen is improved with the addition of Octavio Dotel. I like the rotation even though the fifth starter spot is unresolved. This is a good team.

2. Kansas City Royals – The Royals will be a thorn in everyone’s side. Not yet ready to contend, they will be a tough competitor and while ultimately they will be far behind the Tigers they will be exciting and we will see plenty of glimpses of what is to come. Eric Hosmer‘s continued development along with that of Mike Moustakas will take center stage but Lorenzo Cain had a great spring and looks ready to be a big contributor in center. The Royals have locked a bunch of these guys up which is great as I’ve always had a soft spot for Kansas City. The rotation has some big question marks. Bruce Chen hasn’t been good for a long time and yet the Royals will need to lean on him. Danny Duffy and Luis Mendoza look to be interesting but I am not entirely sold on either. Not entirely sure why they don’t try to put Aaron Crow in the rotation, but I can leave that to Royals blogs to explain.

3. Cleveland Indians – Some people view this team as a sleeper. I think they have some glaring holes. This is a team that considered Bobby Abreu for left field not a week ago. I am not convinced he is better than Shelley Duncan but that is not a compliment at all on Duncan’s resume. The rotation looks very weak after Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson, but even those two guys don’t look particularly strong. This is a team that has a lot of key pieces with huge health concerns and Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner and Carlos Santana have to be healthy for this team to even sniff third base. After Detroit, the teams really could be drawn out of a hat, but if those three go down for any length of time, Cleveland instantly sinks to the basement.

4. Chicago White Sox – Not much I like about this team. Not much I like about the Twins either. I see the White Sox pitching as better. Of course a lot of that is dependent upon the health of Jake Peavy, terrible thing for a team to be dependent upon. I’d like to see Dayan Viciedo make some strides, but am unsure that he will. Chris Sale could become a very good pitcher and if he is this rotation starts to not look too bad with John Danks and Gavin Floyd. This bullpen is an absolute mess. The starters better go long and this team is still hamstrung by bad contracts like Adam Dunn and Alex Rios.

5. Minnesota Twins – The Twins just look lost: a two year contract to Jamey Carroll for $6.5M? Um… no thank you. Josh Willingham signed a decent deal but it seems the Twinkies plan on using him in the outfield. Er… yikes. Is Justin Morneau ever going to be anywhere near the ballplayer he once was? I’m beginning to doubt it. Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Liam Hendriks and all these like innings eating low K/9, low BB/9 guys all seem like #3-#4 starters on winning teams. Francisco Liriano is a crapshoot and perennial injury risk. Can’t see the Twins going anywhere anytime soon.

American League East

1. Boston Red Sox – Someone has to win this divison. Between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees there are a lot of good teams in this division. Why the Red Sox who just lost closer Andrew Bailey? The Red Sox are written off because of their epic collapse of 2011, the fact remains they were the best team in the American League for most of the summer. This team had down years from Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and so on. Those guys will not stay down. This team instantly becomes scary again. This is a great team. I think there is less pressure given the collapse last year and the reduction of expectations. There isn’t great depth, I’d prefer to see Josh Bard in the bullpen shortening games with Mark Melancon rather than in the rotation but I don’t think this team is all that bad. I think they eek out a win over the Rays.

2. Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays are just a pesky good team. Really like Desmond Jennings and the return of Carlos Pena gives them some nice middle of the order thump to go with Evan Longoria. The rotation looks really good too and I like their bullpen. The thing this team has however really is depth. There are so many guys on the outside looking in at Durham that are high quality that this is a team that can quickly solve any problems – think catcher – with trades. The Rays are doing everything right, this club is a pleasure to watch.

3. New York Yankees – Everyone on this team is getting old. Mariano Rivera: 42, Derek Jeter: 38, Alex Rodriguez: 36, Freddy Garcia: 35, Eric Chavez: 34. Other guys like Curtis Granderson, C.C. Sabathia and Nick Swisher are all on the wrong side of thirty. I don’t like it. It isn’t 2003 anymore where people’s primes are their late 30′s. This is a team destined to fall. They can always buy more talent but will much be available midseason? I really think I could put the Yankees behind the Jays and feel good about it but somehow these reclamation projects always seem to work out for New York so watch Raul Ibanez (40) somehow be an All Star.

4. Toronto Blue Jays – This is the best fourth place team in baseball bar none. I love Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, then I feel a whole lot less comfortable with the rest of this team. They will be a very good team, very soon but not just yet in 2012. Jose Bautista seems to be the real deal, I am finally coming around on this. But it is Brett Lawrie who could be the best player on this team very soon. I also expect a bounceback from Colby Rasmus who is too talented to not be a near star, though I question why they went after Mathis and why they have J.P. Arencibia at catcher when they conceivably could make room for Travis d’Arnaud. They’ll have an impressive bullpen so with that helping shorten games they could potentially compete for a wild card spot if all goes right and things go a little wrong for the other three AL East powers.

5. Baltimore Orioles – What a mess. Nick Markakis is someone who looks really good because he is surrounded by such garbage. Adam Jones is largely overlooked as a good ballplayer but aside from those two there are absolutely no Orioles regulars I’d want on a championship contending team. The rotation too looks to be comprised entirely of fourth and fifth starters headed by Jake Arrieta… yikes. To describe this organization as rudderless would be an insult to rudders. I don’t know what that even means, but these Orioles make one lose one’s mind.

National League West

1. San Francisco Giants – There are a lot of problems with the San Francisco Giants. They do not hit and their defense isn’t the most impressive. Furthermore, they seem to perpetually have some of the oldest baseball players on the planet. That all said, their pitching is phenomenal. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner comprise one of the top three top of the rotations in baseball (think Philadelphia and Los Angeles Angels as perhaps the only rivals). Their bullpen too is very good. This team has won before without much offense, and I look at this team and am very unimpressed (Emmanuel Burriss and Aubrey Huff shouldn’t be starting for division winning teams) but with a weak division, San Francisco can take advantage and I expect them to do so.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks – Kirk Gibson has to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. It shouldn’t be too hard, I do like this team a lot and it is coin-flip between them and the Giants really. I see the Giants as about an 86 win team, and if the Dbacks finished at 85 wins I wouldn’t be shocked. I like their pitching a lot. Ian Kennedy is good, Daniel Hudson is even better and then that allows them to use Trevor Cahill as the more middle of the rotation pitcher I think he is best suited to be. Offensively, I don’t like the decision to replace Gerardo Parra with Jason Kubel but perhaps that gives the Dbacks some flexibility to fill holes midseason, I am thinking holes like Willie Bloomquist at shortstop. Bench isn’t so bad though with Parra, John McDonald and Lyle Overbay.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers aren’t great. They spent the offseason getting old signing guys like Chris Capuano, Mark Ellis and Aaron Harang. The Dodgers also spent the offseason getting new owners so they won’t be “not great” for long. Matt Kemp should’ve won the Most Valuable Player Award and he has convinced me he is a decent ballplayer. James Loney hasn’t, Andre Ethier is looking like he might not be as good as suspected. This team is a weird team. They won’t be great to watch. They likely will go around a bit sometimes being very impressive and other times looking very old and bad. That all said, Clayton Kershaw will continue to be a pleasure to watch and will again enjoy pitching in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. I think Chad Billingsley continues to improve, he has quietly been a pretty decent pitcher for a few years. I really think Dee Gordon is something special, but he will be overlooked because this Dodger team will not be making anyone’s highlight reels.

4. Colorado Rockies – This is a team with a bazillion starting pitchers, yet it looks like 49 year old Jamie Moyer will be their number two. The rotation is headed by Jeremy Guthrie and also will include Juan Nicasio (great comeback story, good for him) and Jhoulys Chacin. Color me unimpressed. Not really thrilled with the lineup or the bullpen. This team is really sort of uniformly underwhelming outside of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki.

5. San Diego Padres – Acquiring Carlos Quentin but dealing Mat Latos? Acquiring Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal when you already have Anthony Rizzo (later flipped to the Cubs) and Chase Headley (who they extend)? What is the plan? Edinson Volquez at the top of the rotation – yikes. The one guy I really like on this team is Luke Gregerson but with the Padres its just a matter of time before they trade him for what? It could be an older piece like Quentin or someone who you already have someone stationed at like Grandal. The Padres front office is like a solider in the jungle firing bullets indiscriminately figuring the enemy is somewhere around them. Like that solider, most of the bullets seem to miss the intended target.

National League Central

1. Cincinnati Reds – The Reds lost Ryan Madson for the season, big deal. They just extended Joey Votto to a deal they will quickly regret, big deal. Why is it a big deal? Because the Reds will win the Central and that’s what they are playing for. Latos was a nice pickup and now this rotation looks a lot better, still nothing to write home about but more than enough to handle the run support they will get from the likes of Votto, Brandon Phillips and company. How long before Devin Mesoraco becomes the starting catcher probably not too long, and he and Zack Cozart can be some really exciting young players. I still can’t believe Dusty Baker is using Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen, so if anyone in that rotation causes him concern, I could see the Cuban Missile ready to get in and solve the crisis.

2. Milwaukee Brewers – Gotta go with the Brewers over the defending World Champs. They lost Fielder, huge loss. I think Mat Gamel will be a decent replacement and a good ballplayer. Ryan Braun‘s avoiding a 50-game suspension puts Milwaukee in second, otherwise their very good top of the rotation with Zack Greinke and what I perennially think is one of baseball’s most overlooked pitchers in Yovani Gallardo would be wasted on a third place finish. Aramis Ramirez was a nice pickup to solidify third base though I liked Casey McGeehee and Rickie Weeks is great at the top of the order. John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez really make games seven innings for Brew Crew opponents. Good little club in Milwaukee flying under the radar.

3. St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals of 2011 were one of the worst World Championship teams in recent memory, only the 2006 Cardinals immediately strike me as worse. A fluke of a year from Lance Berkman and some insane luck down the stretch and in the postseason helped them elevate the championship trophy. But they did win it, and like the Giants of 2010, the hangover will be severe. The 2010 Giants were a hugely flawed team that won and it was easy to overlook the flaws and see everything that went right. Same is true of the Cardinals and they will fall. They lost Pujols, they are without Chris Carpenter, we aren’t certain Adam Wainwright will return to form and their pitching staff currently includes Kyle Lohse way earlier than one should be seeing him. I just don’t like this team and expect them to deliver to my expectations.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates look to avoid 20 consecutive losing seasons, my gosh I feel bad for Pirates fans. It is amazing to think, a kid can legally drink – by driving to Canada only three hours or so away from Pittsburgh – yet has never been alive to see their hometown ballclub have a winning year. Unthinkable. Sadly, I think it will be 20 this season. The club is absolutely moving in the right direction, and their rotation isn’t horrible led by Erik Bedard who I think’ll do ok in the low-stress environment, and followed by Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Kevin Correia. Once A.J. Burnett recovers from his injury I think he too like Bedard will benefit playing in the overlooked environs of the Steel City. But sadly, none of this will help them avoid a losing season but Andrew McCutchen will continue to be fun to watch.

5. Chicago Cubs – Brighter times are ahead for Cubs fans with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer at the helm but 2012 is a year of disappointment. They managed to get Carlos Zambrano off the books but still have Alfonso Soriano sucking up payroll. There is a lot not to like on this team but there are some interesting pieces as well. Starlin Castro could be a very good player very soon and I really like Bryan LaHair to surprise and be a fan favorite in Chicago before long. Aside from Matt Garza, I don’t find anyone to get excited about in the rotation but Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood make for a very nice back of the bullpen.

6. Houston Astros – Can you name eight of the guys on the 25-man roster without looking? I am pretty sure I can’t. Not much to say here. They will be the worst team in baseball. They have the 1st overall pick in the amateur draft locked up.

National League East

1. Philadelphia Phillies – I really don’t think the Phillies are as good as they are hyped. Take a look at their Ryan Howard and Chase Utley-less lineup and it really isn’t great. Shoot, to begin with Howard himself isn’t that great. Jimmy Rollins is good but getting older and I really think the star on this team is the overlooked Shane Victorino. I’ve never been high on Hunter Pence, but he is admittedly a decent ballplayer. The Phillies’ strength though lies in their pitching. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are all legitimate number ones. Joe Blanton and Vance Worley are not prototypical four and five guys. The bullpen is weaker than they have been recently but are solid at the backend with the ridiculously overpaid Jonathan Papelbon. Here, I will say it, they know how to win. The other teams with talent in the NL East don’t and for this year at least that helps the Phils keep their division title streak alive.

2. Washington Nationals – I like the Nats. They have some lineup issues – ok, in fairness quite a few, though I think their bench is interesting. But I love their pitching. Stephen Strasburg is great. Gio Gonzalez is solid – don’t like his walks, but can’t complain about him and his guaranteed 200 quality innings. Jordan Zimmerman is great, and while I do not like Edwin Jackson, as a number three or four starter he is being put into a very good and suitable role. They have John Lannan in Syracuse, Chien-Ming Wang out with a strained hamstring, so they only can get better too and have great depth. Even more than their rotation, I love their bullpen. One of the better bullpens in baseball, especially when Drew Storen comes back. Brad Lidge isn’t my favorite closer but getting to him teams that get through the good starters have to get through the likes of Tyler Clippard baseball’s best middle reliever and Henry Rodriguez‘ raw power. Tom Gorzelanny makes for a very nice swingman, which seems totally superfluous given the rotation depth.

3. Miami Marlins – There are legitimate stars on this team. Guys like Giancarlo Stanton (formerly Mike) who have gone unnoticed playing at Pro Player/Joe Robbie/Landshark/Whatever It Was Last Called Stadium. With their new (and awfully outfield wall colored) stadium possibly they get some attention. Jose Reyes joins Stanton, as does Mark Buehrle who I will miss in the American League for his ability to shorten games by working so fast. Josh Johnson, Rick Nolasco, Anibel Sanchez and Zambrano make for a good rotation. Heath Bell as the new closer is nice, though Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) would’ve been fine to keep around except he is now on the restricted list care of lying about his name, age of birth and a whole slew of other things to both the Marlins and one would think more importantly (and more permanent banworthy) the United States Department of Homeland Security.

4. Atlanta Braves – I just never buy in to the Braves, but this fourth place is less about the Braves and more about the Nats and Fish. I’m not really bowled over by Atlanta’s lineup. I am not really bowled over by the career of Chipper Jones though when I look at the lineup I feel I should have been and his retirement in my mind will be the only really interesting thing in Atlanta this summer. I’m no longer crazy about the rotation, the loss of Tim Hudson to back surgery will loom large. Craig Kimbrel cannot possibly put up another year like last year, but I still wonder what it is that he exactly will do.

5. New York Mets – The Mets operate in New York. They operate as though they are in Topeka. The newly small market Mets are awful. If there were a third team in New York, unless they were the Astros, but even if they were an expansion team they would undoubtedly be better and more entertaining than the Mets. Meet the Mets? Don’t do it this year. Look for ligature marks around Mr. Met’s big baseball head, it is going to be a long year in Flushing.

American League Most Valuable Player

The Rays season depends largely upon how one player performs, that player is Evan Longoria. Longoria is a great player having put up at least 5.5 WAR in each of his MLB seasons. That is the baseline for this kid. He had a down year last year at 6.1. Longoria is a great defender, team leader, great player and the most value of any player in baseball. But this year he breaks out. He is the MVP.

American League Cy Young Award

It is hard to go with anyone other than Justin Verlander. I like Weaver, Haren, can’t ever go wrong with King Felix or C.C. Sabathia and I could even see a darkhorse like Romero making this a race. But until he proves otherwise, my vote is in Detroit with Verlander.

American League Rookie of the Year Award

Matt Moore is a conventional pick but the right one. Moore looked phenomenal in limited work last year and with the Rays in the mix in a tight high powered division race all year he will get the attention he deserves to win this race. Cespedes will get a lot of attention in Oakland but probably will be a little feast or famine at the plate, and Milone will be overlooked despite the fact he will be very good. Darvish could get some votes but there are some voters who don’t vote for Japanese professionals who come over and that to me will give Moore an edge if they have anywhere near comparable years.

American League Surprise and Bust Players

No way to officially gauge if I am right or not on this but just a general thought on who is underrated and who is overrated. My surprise player is Brennan Boesch of the Tigers. I think he will have a breakout year and really turn heads as the Tigers motor and then cruise to a division title. The biggest disappointment will be C.J. Wilson. Wilson is not an ace. He is in my mind Los Angeles’ fourth best starter. He is very good for a fourth starter but Angels fans expect ace-like returns that he won’t deliver. A 4.30 ERA from Wilson still gets the Angels to a division title.

National League Most Valuable Player

I am not crazy about Joey Votto but he is crazy good and he will lead the Reds to a division title while putting up his typical numbers. No one really stands out to me in the National League and maybe a pitcher could run away with this somehow, but if I am putting $100 on anyone, I put it on Votto.

National League Cy Young Award

There is no way anyone can with a clean conscience say Roy Halladay isn’t a good pick. Halladay will put up Halladayesque numbers, will they be enough to top Kershaw or Lincecum? Probably though either of those would be completely fair and reasonable picks as well. Halladay is just an incredible fearless pitcher and being the ace of the division champs and standing out among that group of pitchers won’t hurt his odds one iota.

National League Rookie of the Year

I was going to go with Bryan LaHair but it turns out he is not a rookie so I am going with the Reds’ Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco will be the starting catcher before too long and with the spotlight on the Reds as they win the Central, he will get the added attention required to rise above a somewhat weak field.

National League Surprise and Bust Players

LaHair is my pick here. Initially, I thought he was a rookie but he is not otherwise I’d have him as Rookie of the Year. My bust is Carlos Beltran with St. Louis. He is a great ballplayer but injuries, age, being on a team with a World Series hangover (again), these aren’t things that’ll help Beltran make his year a good one. He is but one piece of a broken lineup.

The Wild Cards

This year is baseball’s first with two wild cards. In the American League I suspect those two teams will be the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers. In the National League my money is on them coming from the same division, the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals. Not sure the statistical odds on that given the unbalanced schedule but, I’ll go with it anyway.

The Divisional Series

I think it is the Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals winning their wild card games – how crazy is it to predict one game never a good propisition in baseball what? six months out? – and the Rays will fall to the Tigers in their series while the Nationals will beat the Reds in theirs. The other two matchups will see the Angels beat the Red Sox and in a great series see the Phillies edge the Giants.

The League Championship Series

I like the Tigers to defeat the Angels in a long and exciting series – having Verlander neutralize a Weaver is a powerful weapon and the Tigers will be used to winning all season long. In the senior circuit, I see the Phillies handling the Nats with relative ease.

The World Series

Tigers will win. Verlander versus Halladay will be a matchup for the ages, perhaps thrice. The Phillies could benefit from longer rest, but… their offense just can’t keep pace and their bullpen is more suspect. There you have it. Now all the players have to do is go out and play these games.

]]> http://realtimereds.mlblogs.com/2012/04/03/the-reds-and-the-espn-500/ Tue, 03 Apr 2012 20:01:30 +0000 willfrasure http://realtimereds.mlblogs.com/2012/04/03/the-reds-and-the-espn-500/ ESPN took on a pretty ambitious and interesting project the last couple of weeks. A pool of 34 experts ranked their top 500 MLB players. ESPN then released the list in bits and pieces while also getting fans involved by involving the #ESPN500 hashtag on Twitter and posting fans’ reactions to the rankings. The Reds did pretty well overall in the countdown, with 19 making the cut.

Here’s a look at the list:

19. Joey Votto

68. Jay Bruce

76. Mat Latos

79. Brandon Phillips

99. Ryan Madson

101. Johnny Cueto

160. Sean Marshall

221. Scott Rolen

231. Aroldis Chapman

239. Drew Stubbs

286. Mike Leake

386. Homer Bailey

391. Bronson Arroyo

413. Chris Heisey

431. Bill Bray

437. Ryan Ludwick

444. Zack Cozart

450. Devin Mesoraco

Some thoughts:

• Votto deserves to be higher, in my humble opinion
• Cueto would be higher if he pitches like he did last season without being sidelined
• Bruce can be higher if he breaks out, like many analysts and fans think he can.
• Seeing Madson at #99 and one of the highest closers makes me sad about his injury, but seeing Sean Marshall at #160 instantly makes me feel better
• Mesoraco and Cozart should rise a lot if they have great rookie seasons

Overall, the list was a pretty tough undertaking and ESPN did a good job with it. It gives you a good idea of where the players on your team stand. Thought fellow fans would enjoy a quick look at the list like I did.

Here’s the link to the Reds listed, with links to the rest of the series.

Perez pitched a perfect inning for the Indians in a 2-1 loss to the Reds, after which Reds manager Dusty Baker announced that Marshall will open the year as the closer in place of Ryan Madson, out for the season.

“Sean Marshall’s our closer for now,” Baker said of the lefty, who went 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings over 10 Cactus League outings.

“He’s closed a few games, not a lot,” Baker said. “He can throw that breaking ball for strikes anytime he gets ready and that’s hard to do in Arizona with this light air and all. He’s not fazed by situations. He’s been around awhile. He’s a veteran guy and has had success.”

The Indians learned afterward that Ubaldo Jimenez was suspended for five games by Major League Baseball for hitting Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki with a pitch. He’s appealing the suspension and will still make his start Saturday against Toronto.

“It’s disappointing, but I’m not surprised,” Indians manager Manny Acta said.

Acta said he expects Jimenez to appeal.

“He’ll work through that process. He’s starting the second game of the season,” Acta insisted.

Acquired in a trade from the Chicago Cubs in December, Marshall had six of his seven career saves over the last two seasons, when he worked exclusively in relief 158 times.

Hard-throwing Aroldis Chapman, who started four games this spring, has been moved back to the Reds’ bullpen in a setup role.

Acta is delighted that Perez will be ready when Cleveland opens the season Thursday at home against Toronto. The right-hander, an All-Star a year ago, missed a month with a strained left oblique, but worked three times in the last week, not allowing a hit or walk over three innings.

“He’s erased any doubts,” manager Manny Acta said. “He’s been tremendous, around the strike zone with good stuff. The only thing he didn’t do was go back-to-back (consecutive games). He’ll get to do that during the season.”

Reds starter Bronson Arroyo gave up seven hits and one run over 6 1-3 innings. The right-hander has had some overall soreness, but said he felt better.

“I feel as good as I can,” Arroyo said. “I was going to dial it back. I’ve been feeling a little sore but I was throwing free and easy in the bullpen. I threw a little harder than I expected to. Today was definitely the best I felt. My overall command was good, all my pitches being there.”

Baker was pleased.

“Bronson was the best he’s been all spring,” Baker said. “We had good execution. We got the runner over and got him in. You have to win games like that when you’re not hitting. We need to do a better job of that this year.”

The Reds scored on sacrifice flies by Chris Heisey and Devin Mesoraco. Jason Donald doubled home the Indians’ run.

Josh Tomlin allowed three hits and one run over five innings in his final start for Cleveland.

“His last three starts were very satisfying,” Acta said. “He’s not a power guy. He has to continue to throw a lot of strikes. He’s put it together.”

NOTES: Madson will have Tommy John surgery, but no date has been set. … Cleveland released OF Fred Lewis. … Indians SS Asdrubal Cabrera did not play and told a reporter he was going to take a physical. Though Cabrera has had slight soreness in his throwing arm, the trip to the doctor more likely was part of the All-Star soon getting a reported new contract that adds two-years and $16.5 million. … Both teams left camp after the game. The Reds went to Cincinnati, where the regulars will play the rookies Tuesday in a Spring Showcase Futures Game. … The Indians went to Zebulon, N.C., for a Tuesday game against their Class A Carolina League affiliate.

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