With UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo having dispatched previously undefeated challenger Chad Mendes in explosive fashion on Saturday night, talks quickly turned to who the dynamic Brazilian would next face inside the Octagon.

The possible answers might surprise you.

* * * * * * * *

Jose Aldo
Next Opponent: Frankie Edgar or Bart Palaszewski/Hatsu Hioki Winner

If we’re just going for a conventional, “here’s the next in line guy” in the featherweight division, it should be the winner of the UFC 144 battle between Palaszewski and Hioki. “Bartimus” was impressive in his divisional debut, stopping Tyson Griffin at UFC 137 in October. While Hioki’s victory on the same card was a little questionable, he’s been a top-ranked ’45 for quite some time, and a win over Palaszewski should put him opposite Aldo.

However… the cooler, more intriguing option is Edgar, the UFC lightweight champion. Actually, there are a couple scenarios that could play out here:

1) Aldo vacates the featherweight title, moves to ’55, and immediately faces Edgar for the belt, provided Edgar defeats Benson Henderson in February.
2) Edgar and Aldo meet in a “Champion vs. Champion” catchweight of 150-pounds.
3) Edgar loses to Henderson, drops to ’45, and gets a title shot right away on the strength of his lightweight run.

Of those three, I like #2 the least because catchweight fights leave a divisional champion coming off a loss. I’d rather see either of the champions change addresses, and think Edgar coming down to ’45 makes more sense than Aldo going up. It would give the other contenders in the featherweight division some time to sort themselves out, makes for a pretty solid bout that could easily headline a future event, and allows Aldo to stay where I think he is best suited.

Vitor Belfort
Next Opponent: Wanderlei Silva

We already knew this one was in the books heading into Saturday night’s event.

Belfort will coach TUF Brazil opposite “The Axe Murderer” with the two Brazilian MMA legends to square off in the spring or summer when the show comes to an end. It is a great match-up for Belfort, who will enter the bout on a two-fight winning streak, and possesses the speed and power to present all kind of problems for Silva. While Wand is still dangerous, he’s not the same lethal knockout artist he used to be, and he doesn’t take punches the way he used to either.

It’s a long way off, but if Belfort can push his winning streak to three with an impressive finish of Silva, he could put himself back in line for a title shot.

Rousimar Palhares
Next Opponent: Michael Bisping/Demian Maia Winner

The winner of the Chael Sonnen-Mark Munoz fight that follows this middleweight pairing on the FOX show later this month should be next in line for Anderson Silva, which means the winner of this one will need another fight — or suffer an extended stay on the sidelines.

We’ve seen Palhares rip through middle tier competition time and again, but he’s struggled in his two trips up the competitive ladder. He’s an extremely dangerous submission fighter, and it’s time to figure out once and for all if he’s got any top of the food chain potential or not.

Pairing him with the winner of the Bisping/Maia bout works on all fronts. Whoever emerges from that fight gets a solid opponent that keeps them in line for a title shot should they win, while Palhares takes their place if he snatches up their leg and forces them to tap.

Carlo Prater
Next Opponent: Luis Ramos

Prater walked into a buzzsaw on Saturday night, and regardless of the final verdict, it was clear that he isn’t capable of hanging with top of the line talent. He did the UFC a solid by taking the fight with Erick Silva on short notice, and while he has a win on his resume, I’m sure it doesn’t feel that way today.

Pairing him with Silva’s other victim gives Prater a fight that is more his speed, allowing him the opportunity to collect a victory in the Octagon through his skills, not a referee’s decision.

Erick Silva
Next Opponent: Winner Jake Hecht/TJ Waldburger

The UFC is treating Silva’s performance Saturday night as a win, so I am too.

There are going to be people who think you push Silva at this point — set him up with a solid veteran somewhere a main card and see what he can do — but I don’t see the point in that; not right now. The division is top heavy and muddled, so why not draw in the reins a little, get him back in the cage, and allow him to continue building with less risk?

Hecht looked good in his debut win over Rich Attonito, and Waldburger looked great subbing out Mike Stumpf back in the fall. Whoever wins is on a two-fight winning streak and in need of a step up in competition, the same position the UFC sees Silva in right now. Throwing him in with the likes of Brian Ebersole or Mike Pyle at this points puts him in against the best if he wins, and there is no need to rush him along at this point.

I say build Silva slowly over the remainder of this year, assessing things after each fight. If he keeps trucking guys, keep moving him up the ladder. As bad as some people feel his DQ loss is, a no questions asked defeat to a vet would be far worse for him at this point.

Edson Barboza
Next Opponent: Gleison Tibau

It’s time to see just how good Barboza’s takedown defense really is.

Tibau is a veteran powerhouse who can press the action, turn the fight into a grind, and give us a clearer indication of where Barboza’s ceiling sits after his Knockout of the Year finish of Terry Etim at UFC 142. After four wins against opponents who were willing to stand-and-trade with him and not really strong enough grapplers/wrestlers to chance the location of the fight when they tried, Barboza needs to show he can get through a solid grappler before moving further up the ladder.

With three straight wins and victories in seven of his last nine fights, Tibau has the right kind of resume to be a suitable dance partner for the explosive Muay Thai specialist; his last two losses came to Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard. This is also a great opportunity for Tibau to take the next step forward, as adding a win over Barboza to his current run would vault him higher in the rankings than he’s ever been in his career.

* * * * * * * *

Keep up with the latest from Keyboard Kimura by joining the Facebook page.

If you’re on Twitter, be sure to follow me (@ESKonMMA) for even more MMA talk… and all kinds of randomness too.

UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo is mobbed by the Brazilian crowd after his KO win over Chad Mendes

• Edson Barboza’s spinning heel kick KO of Terry Etim literally gave me the “O.o” face. Etim’s body falling like a jungle log was also as golden as the KO itself.

• Erick Silva landed 2-3 shots to the back of the head, arguably. They also weren’t the cleanest of shots. If anything, the back-to-the-head shots of Vitor to Akiyama and Hendo to Fedor looked cleaner, and got away with it too.

• Still, Silva is a very promising young prospect. He will learn a lot from this DQ loss and his stock won’t go down.

• Rousimar Palhares is a master of the heel hook. Seriously, how many times can an MMA fighter finish fights with the same move over and over again?

• Rumble is a HUGE disappointment. How he managed not to take care of business by cutting weight was both unprofessional and sad. Add to the fact that he was on co-main event and having the biggest fight of his career makes you think if he’s mentally fit to compete in the highest level.

• I was slightly irritated by the quick stand-ups by Dan Miragliotta. He seemed quite excited and rushed the stand-ups. Maybe something’s up with him. Hmmm.

• Nevertheless, I’m happy to see Vitor put on a show in front of Brazilian fans. I’d argue he’s still more popular than Anderson in Brazil, despite how their fight ended.

• Jose Aldo is a beast. Enough said. The post-fight out-of-the-cage celebration was cool too. If only Aldo’s awesomeness would translate to PPV buys…

In a UFC where the majority of the fights were pre destined with the winner before the card actually happened it delivered some great action. The Brazilian fans chants and knowledge of MMA were a great site to see. The american beer gut drinking fans wanting nothing but stand up rock em sock em robots were not in attendance. 

In one of the most competitive fights of the night we also saw what could be the UFC’s best KO to date. Edson Barboza and Terry Etim put on a fairly competitive technical fight. Etim came out strong with footwork and a fast jab. Barboza was able to counter this was strong leg kicks which seemed to  slow down Etim’s movement and take over the fight. Through two and a half rounds while Barboza was winning the fight Etim was still game and coming forward controlling the center of the octagon. The problem for Etim was he was not expecting what would happen next. Barboza unleashed a beautiful wheel kick that landed perfectly causing etim to be KO’d instantly which looked like he was sniped the way he fell to the ground. Multiple replay’s showed Barboza’s heel connecting on Etim’s chin and awarding possibly the best KO in UFC history.

In the nights co-main event we saw a clash between what appeared to be a heavyweight Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort. Johnson came in 11 pounds overweight during the weigh-in’s but was able to meet the compromise of 204lbs come fight day. But by fight time Rumble looked to be about 220-230. The fight from beginning to end was fought at a fast frantic pace. Johnson had some early success with the takedown and ground and pound but got tired real fast. Belfort was able to stuff the takedowns and throw some great knee’s and punches. As Johnson’s gas tank began to go he clinched up with Belfort and Belfort did a beautiful transition to take Johnson’s back. From here Vitor used some strikes to setup a rear naked choke for the finish in the first round.

The main event between Chad Mendes and UFC featherweight champ Jose Aldo jr. This fight came down to whether or not Aldo could avoid the wrestling of Mendes. As the fight started Mendes tested his meddle standing with Aldo before eating a few leg kicks that he did not seem to like. He shot in for a takedown and Aldo made it look easy moving out of the way. The majority of the round looked the same. Mendes taking some leg kicks and some punches with not much luck of his own. As round one is winding down Mendes gets Aldo against the fence and tries to lift Aldo up but Aldo grabs the fence and stops the takedown. Mendes tries it again and plants Aldo, but Aldo jumps right back to his feet. Mendes clasp Aldo again and has Aldo’s back against the cage, Aldo breaks free turns around and throws a knee that floors Mendes and jumps into his guard with three big right hands and finishes Mendes at 4:59 of the first round.

This UFC was not worth the PPV cost, but if you were able to catch it under someone else’s expense or through the free xbox live promotion then you were met with some exciting finishes. The brazilians dominated the win category in what many people expected. But nobody expected Vitor to win by rear naked choke or Barboza to land a highlight wheel kick.

Disclaimr Awards of The Night

- Jose Aldo for trying to fight his way through security to run through the crowd but failing to realize no matter how much of a badass as you think you are, you’re still a tiny guy compared to the rest of the population and one security guard held you back with little effort.

- Referee Mario Yamasaki. Because when you make a questionable decision to impact a fight where you saw you were wrong in the reply, you decided to still talk to Joe Rogan on the mic and look stupid.

- Terry Etim. For no other reason than the embarrassing KO followed up by looking stiff as a board as you hit the mat and still have you arms standing straight up as you lay unconcious.

- Anthony Johnson. Moving up in a weight class and missing weight by 11lbs. Then being submitted by a fighter who has not submitted anyone in 11 years. The icing on the cake was Dana White then cutting him from the UFC.

UFC142 is now in the books so let’s get straight into it.

Surely you’ve seen it by now, if not you must have heard about it; the kick heard around the world. Edson Barboza’s incredible spinning heel kick KO of Terry Etim is already being talked about as knockout of the year. I’m going to take that one step further and say knockout of the decade! Forget Anderson Silva’s front kick on Belfort, forget Machida’s crane kick on Couture, and if your memory is a little longer (like fellow MMA Mount Blogger Genevieve’s) forget Gonzaga’s head kick on Cro Cop. All beautiful finishes in their own right, but this was something special. Even more so if you were watching live and happened to be on Twitter. Timelines around the world filled up with phrases like “Wow!!”, “Did you see that?!” and from one eloquent follower “HOLY F*#5KING F*#K!!”. Up until that point Barboza appeared to be ahead on points, stuffing most of Etim’s takedown attempts, and when he was taken down showing wonderful composure to sweep and get back to his feet. Barboza, quite rightly, earned himself KO of the night honours, along with a fight of the night bonus for both men.

Next up Erick Silva took on Carlo Prater. From the get go Silva swarmed Prater, caught him with a knee and followed up with hammer fists. And that was all she wrote, or so we thought. Referee Mario Yamasaki apparently saw something that no one else did. Yamasaki decided to disqualify Silva for illegal blows to the back of the head. The call was questionable at best and Joe Rogan did his best to point out to Yamasaki that all blows, bar one, were legal. To Yamasaki’s credit it was a brave call in front of a highly charged crowd, but calls like this do no good for the image of the UFC or the sport of MMA in general. With all the controversy around judging calls as of late the last thing I wanted to see was more controversy surrounding officials. Dana White went on record as saying that Silva would still receive his win bonus, which is absolutely the right thing to do, but you can’t help feeling that Silva’s second showing in the UFC, and his second in front of his home crowd, was soured somewhat by poor officiating. In my mind this will go down as a win for Silva, who after his first round KO of Luis Ramos, is rapidly becoming a fighter to watch, while his fights last that is.

Rousimar Palhares is one dangerous individual. If he gets a hold of your leg he is going to grab it, twist it and wrench it until you tap. Mike Massenzio found this out the hard way. The only solace for Massenzio was that the heel hook probably stopped hurting before his loins, which took an unfortunate blow (excuse the lazy pun) from a wayward kick by Toquinho. Palhares went for a takedown, pulled guard, grabbed a leg and does what he does best. The fight was short and sweet but an excellent display of an elite level fighter putting all his training and years of experience to devastating use. After the fight Rousimar dedicated the victory to his former training partner Eraldo Paes, who sadly passed away on December 23rd.

The next fight on the card was Vitor Belfort vs Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Much has been said in the last 24 hours about Rumble missing weight, and the fact that this fight happened at all is just short of a miracle. Taking place at a catch weight 197lbs I always saw this fight was Belfort’s to lose. Johnson cannot have been focused considering all the negative attention surrounding him leading up to the fight and the toll that the weight cut must have taken on his body. Belfort, on the other hand, had huge support, huge focus and huge determination to put on an impressive performance. Again this fight did not last long, the finish coming 11 seconds short of the end of the first round. The fight started with an opening flurry which led to Belfort being dumped on his head and Johnson ending up eventually in The Phenom’s guard. Vitor went after Rumble relentlessly, landing good damaging punches. After being stood up a couple of times the fight went to the ground, a place that Johnson just did not need to be against a man with the submission skills of Belfort. Johnson looked aggresive but sloppy and swung wildly but missing, allowing Belfort to get a hold of Rumble’s head, eventuall taking his back. From that point there was really only going to be one outcome. Belfort delivered some damaging blows, flattened Johnson out and sunk in a rear naked choke that was the undoing of Anthony Johnson. Things were to get even worse for Johnson after the fight. With Dana White pointing to his unprofessional attitude Johnson has now been cut from the UFC. Not many would argue with White’s decision and full credit goes to Belfort for being the true professional he is and agreeing to fight.

With the night drawing on the crowd were eager to see whether Jose Aldo would defend his Featherweight title against Chad Mendes and extend his winning streak to 14. Mendes had to get this fight to the ground if he were to stand any chance. Aldo’s leg kicks were precise and damaging casing Mendes to switch his stance to defendhis lead leg and that was the way of the fight until Mendes caught Aldo by the cage. He worked knnes to Aldo’s thighs and tried to take the young Brazilian down. Then out of nowhere Aldo spun round and landed a crushing knee to Mendes’ face. He was out but Aldo followed up with a couple of punches on the ground. As soon as Aldo knew he had won he sprinted out of the Octagon and into the crowd to celebrate with his countrymen. If he wasn’t a national hero before, he is now.

A fitting end to a great night of fights with all main card bouts ending with a finish. We had knockouts, we had submissions, we had finishes and we had Jose Aldo prove yet again why he belongs near the top of anyones pound for pound ranking list.

Follow me on Twitter @fourozgloves

The UFC has never seen a Featherweight or a Bantamweight main event since the start of the new divisions. The reason for this is that these lighter weights tend not to put on the most explosive fights, in terms of finishes. They do but on some electric fights though with speed and quickness that is not seen in any other division. The biggest problem is that the majority of these fights do not end quickly as they tend to go to decision. The smaller weights generally do not have the power to earn the knockouts that so many fans love. They are also almost all evenly matched on the ground as many came up as wrestlers or Jiu Jitsu artists and can hold their own on the ground. The lack of finishing in these weight classes has made many people unhappy about them and has prevented them from headlining a PPV event. That all changed at UFC 142 though as Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes would face off in the main event for the Featherweight Title. Aldo and Mendes would go out for the fight to prove that the Featherweights can finish fights and deserve to be featured in events. Jose Aldo had a little extra motivation though as he would fight in his home country for the first time in his career. Aldo would defend his title in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil as he would look to take home a win in his first fight in Brazil. Mendes would try to spoil the party for the Brazilians fans and finally force the title to exchange hands. It would be a tough task for Mendes though as he would need to take one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world in Aldo. The champion is known for just how good he is in every aspect of the game from his devastating leg kicks to his great Jiu Jitsu. Mendes would try to expose Aldo’s weakness as he would look to take Aldo down and put him on his back taking a page out of Mark Hominick’s book from the matchup in UFC 129 when Hominick dominated Aldo in the 5^th round by putting him on his back. Mendes had the ability to do this as one of the best wrestlers in the featherweight division. It would still be a tough task as he would have to deal with the extremely loud Brazilian crowd all cheering for Aldo the entire fight. Mendes took on the challenge as he was looking to continue his 11 fight unbeaten streak and win the Featherweight Title against Jose Aldo. The fight started with Mendes looking like Aldo and firing off leg kicks presumably to weaken the legs for future takedown attempts. Aldo did not blink though as he fired back with his own leg kicks that showed just who had the better kicks. Mendes then shot for a takedown but could not get Aldo down as Aldo then continued to hit Mendes with leg kicks. With a minute left Mendes finally took a bit of an advantage as he put Aldo against the fence. Mendes then tried to slam Aldo but Aldo grabbed the fence preventing the takedown and earning a warning by the referee. Mendes tried again and was successful in his takedown attempt but it did not last long as Aldo got up immediately. Mendes kept control against the fence though as he took Aldo’s back after getting up off the ground. Then Aldo quickly made an attempt to get out of the hold as he spun around and threw a knee. The knee landed perfectly on Mendes’ chin as the challenger fell to the ground and the fight was over. Aldo had defended his belt in front of his home crowd and ended the stigma that Featherweights can’t finish fights. Aldo was so excited for the win he immediately ran out of the octagon and into the Brazilian Crowd who mobbed him and probably worried the UFC management. Aldo defended his title and will move on to take on the next challenger for the title while Mendes will fall back into the featherweight division and will likely await another shot at the title if he can get back to winning.

The Brazilians showed up throughout the fight card as they went 9-3 in the fights, with two of those loses coming at the hands of another Brazilian fighter. Two fights took special consideration though as one featured a local hero and the other saw a DQ end the fight. The first big story of the night was full of controversy as Erik Silva took on Carlo Prater in a matchup of Brazilians. Erik Silva looked great in the fight as he quickly came out and landed a big knee on Prater forcing him to try to shoot for a takedown. Silva got on top and began throwing hammer fists on Prater forcing referee Mario Yamasaki to stop the fight. Then after the fight the announcement was made that Silva would be disqualified for hitting Prater in the back of the head after being warned. The call was controversial as Joe Rogan came into the octagon after the fight and questioned the referee decision claiming that he did not see the hits to the back of the head. The reality is that the referee is there to protect fighters and if he did see the illegal punches, I saw at least 4 shots to the back of the head, then he needs to make a call and this call happened to take a win away from Silva. Another big story was the return of Vitor Belfort to his hometown as he would take on Anthony Johnson. Johnson had some issues making weight as he weighed in and was told to rehydrate by the doctors and then weighted in over weight. The fight was still on and Belfort took the energy from the crowd to earn a submission victory in front of the rabid crowd. The Brazilian fans got their money’s worth at UFC 142 with some great fights by some of the top Brazilian fighters and seeing two of the biggest Brazilian stars take home wins in a great kickoff to the 2012 fight season.

The Fight bonuses for UFC 142 totaled $65,000 for every fighter involved in one of the best moments of the fight and there were plenty to choose from. The “Submission of the Night” went to Rousimar Palhares who used a leg lock, a submission that he has become known for, against Mike Massenzio. The “Knockout of the Night” went to Edson Barboza for his devastating KO by a wheel kick against Terry Etim. The first wheel kick KO in UFC history also earned Barboza the “Fight of the Night” bonus along with Terry Etim who held his own in a tight battle until the KO

Full Results:

Jose Aldo “Junior” def. Chad “Money” Mendes [Featherweight Title]

(KO; Rd. 1)

Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort def. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson

(Submission; Rear Naked Choke, Rd. 1)

Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares def. “The Master of Disaster” Mike Massenzio

(Submission; Leg Lock, Rd. 1)

Carlo “Neo” Prater def. Erik Silva [DQ]

(Erik Silva DQ due to Illegal Strikes)

Edson “Junior” Barboza def. Terry Etim

(KO; Rd. 3)

Thiago Tavares def. Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout

(Unanimous Decision)

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga def. Ednaldo “Lula” Oliveira

(Submission; Rear Naked Choke, Rd. 1)

Yuri “Marajo” Alcantara def. Michihiro Omigawa

(Unanimous Decision)

Mike “Quicksand” Pyle def. Ricardo “Golden Boy” Funch

(KO; Rd. 1)

Felipe “Sertanejo” Arantes def. Antonio “Pato” Carvalho

(Unanimous Decision)

Upcoming Events:

UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller (January 20^th; 9:00 pm)

- Live Free on FX/Sportsnet

- Nashville, Tennessee (Bridgestone Arena)

- Main Event: Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard vs. Jim Miller

- Notable: Duane “Bang” Ludwig vs. Josh “The Dentist” Neer

UFC on FOX: Evans vs. Davis (January 28^th; 8:00 pm)

- Free live on FOX/Sportsnet

- Chicago, Illinois (United Center)

- Main Event: “Suga” Rashad Evans vs. Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis

- Notable: Chael Sonnen vs. Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz

UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit (February 4^th; 10:00 pm)

- Las Vegas, Nevada (Mandalay Bay Events Center)

- Main Event: Nate Diaz vs. Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit [Interim Welterweight Title]

- Notable: Roy “Big Country” Nelson vs. Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum

- Notable: Josh “Kos” Koshcheck vs. Mike Pierce

One of the most beautiful pieces of striking technique I’ve seen in quite some time, and an early contender for KO of the year.

dinuguan:

Front runner: KO of year/decade.

Mannequin’d.

Poor Etim looks like he just looked in Medusa’s eyes.

dinuguan:

Front runner: KO of year/decade.

Mannequin’d.

Poor Etim looks like he just looked in Medusa’s eyes.

Friday afternoon, some of the chatter around the Internet was that UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo had become boring, a decision fighter who no longer looked to knock people out the same way he did during his climb to the top in the WEC.

Saturday night, Aldo made all those people eat their words, feeding Chad Mendes a perfectly placed knee that dropped the unbeaten challenger, before following up with a pinpoint punch that earned him the stoppage with one second left in the opening round.

Aldo showed outstanding takedown defense and his trademark punishing leg kicks throughout the opening round, and timed his finishing knee perfectly, breaking free of Mendes’ grip, spinning, and landing the knee flush as Mendes reached in for another takedown. It was a dynamic performance, one that should silence those critics who were too quick to question Aldo’s explosiveness earlier in the week.

2. Jose Aldo Isn’t a Star? C’mon Son…

If that performance isn’t enough to make Aldo a start in the eyes of UFC fans, I don’t if he’ll ever get there.

Aldo’s finish and victory celebration were both tremendous, illustrating that the featherweight champion has a flare for the dramatic and can be counted on to deliver on the biggest stage. Running into the crowd to celebrate with the ravenous audience surely made Dana White and company a little nervous, but it was a spontaneous, genuine moment, and it was awesome.

This performance ranks right up there with some of the best we’ve seen in the last twelve months, and came against the unquestioned #1 contender, a challenger who might not have lost a round prior to stepping into the cage in Rio. Aldo has now rattled off three straight in the UFC, 11 in a row under a Zuffa banner, and 13 consecutive dating back to May 2006.

The kid’s a star, period.

3. Vitor Belfort Delivers for Hometown Fans

Fighting in his hometown of Rio de Janeiro for the first time in 13 years, “The Phenom” did not disappoint.

After being taken down early and hit with a big, looping punch in the right eye, Belfort took the fight to Anthony Johnson, making the most of a couple quick stand-ups to pressure his opponent. The powerful puncher connected with a couple solid shots in close quarters, sending Johnson to his knees, where Belfort dusted off his Brazilian jiu-jitsu game, quickly taking Johnson’s back and working towards the finish.

Johnson’s attempts to defend were in vain, as Belfort sunk in his hooks, flattened him out, and eventually connected on a rear naked choke, forcing Johnson to tap at 4:49 seconds of the opening round. The win is Belfort’s second consecutive first-round finish since losing to Anderson Silva last February, and sends him into the filming of TUF Brazil on a high.

4. A Really Painful Learning Experience for Anthony Johnson

Friday and Saturday have been pretty rough to Anthony Johnson.

From seriously missing weight and coming under fire from scores of fans, critics, colleagues, and his bosses, to being submitted Saturday night in Rio, “Rumble” has had a difficult couple of days. Things are probably going to get worse before it gets better too, as everyone expects the UFC to hand the 27-year-old fighter his walking papers.

While plenty of people will take their shots at Johnson over the next few days and say that he got what he deserved both inside and outside of the cage, my hope is that he uses this as a chance to make some changes in his preparation and lifestyle, and come back bigger and better in the future. He has an abundance of talent, and is surrounded by a group of people who want to help him succeed.

Hopefully Johnson recognizes that, makes the necessary adjustments, and is a gets the chance to fulfill his potential in the coming years.

5. Rousimar Palhares is Scary Good

The UFC middleweight division got another contender on Saturday night, as Rousimar Palhares made quick work of Mike Massenzio. As expected, the Brazilian Top Team product shot for a leg, grabbed up a heel hook, leaned back, and left Massenzio with an agonizing look on his face. It was the third consecutive victory for “Toquinho” inside the Octagon, pushing his UFC record to 7-2 overall.

Here’s the thing: his two losses are to Dan Henderson in his second UFC appearance and Nate Marquardt in that curious, why is he stopping? performance two Septembers back. In addition to having the nastiest collection of leg locks this side of Masakazu Imanari, Palhares is the right amount of crazy to make people very, very nervous.

His stand-up continues to improve, and he’s got the kind of powerful, “you’re not going to stop me” jiu-jitsu game that is hard to defend, even when you know it’s coming. Count me in for seeing Palhares battle the winner of the Michael Bisping-Demian Maia fight sometime this spring.

6. Erick Silva is a Beast

We’ll get to the result in a second, but let’s focus on the bigger picture here — Erick Silva is going to be special.

For the second consecutive bout, the 27-year-old Anderson Silva protege cruised across the cage and laid out his opponent, catching Carlo Prater with knee to the midsection that buckled the veteran and left him turtled up on the ground. Silva showed his tremendous finishing instincts again, quickly following up and seemingly earning his second consecutive victory in 40-seconds or less.

“Indio” looks ready for a step up in competition, and he’s in the right division to be tested. There are loads of talented welterweights out there, and it’s time to get Silva in there with some of them. He’s aced his first two exams, and needs to be given a much more challenging test next time out. But as of right now, Silva looks like the real deal.

7. Good Job by Yamasaki, Bad Job by Joe Rogan

I have no problem with the disqualification call in the Erick Silva-Carlo Prater fight. It’s referee Mario Yamasaki’s call, he believed a series of blows to the back of the head caused the finish, and made his decision accordingly.

Everything that happened after made me cringe.

The Twitter reaction by people who have never been in Mario’s shoes was saddening, especially seeing so many colleagues passing judgment on the official with vitriol. Joe Rogan’s decision to put Yamasaki on the spot was in bad taste too in my opinion. He doesn’t have the benefit of a slow motion replay and can’t change his mind after the fact, so Rogan putting him on blast in front of a frustrated public and a heartbroken fighter is unnecessary.

Personally, I thought more than a couple of those shots Silva landed were to the back of the head, and that Yamasaki made the right call.

8. Edson Barboza Wins Knockout of the Year

Let me just say right now that it’s going to be hard for someone to top Edson Barboza’s knockout of Terry Etim in the Knockout of the Year race.

After dominating the opening two rounds with his explosive striking and slippery defensive work, the undefeated lightweight landed a perfect wheel kick to the jaw of his British opponent, turning off Etim’s lights instantly, and sending his starched body crashing into the canvas. Dana White called it the best knockout he’s seen live and I have to agree. It was a thing of beauty.

Barboza tried the kick against Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128, connecting with his toes and landing with far less force. Saturday night, he put heel to jaw with maximum force, and set the bar extremely high in the case for Knockout of the Year honours.

9. Outstanding From Top to Bottom

Heading into this fight, there were plenty of people complaining and telling anyone who would listen that UFC 142 wasn’t worth the $50 investment.

Those who ignored the noise and watched the event were treated to an explosive main card with two tremendous knockout finishes, the best post-fight celebration in UFC history, a couple of quality submissions, and a controversial decision that will surely be a hot topic of conversation over the next few days. A couple new stars began to emerge (Edson Barboza and Erick Silva), the featherweight champion had his breakout moment, and the event was entertaining from start to finish.

While there weren’t a collection of massive names on this card, the end result was still an extremely enjoyable night of fights, proving yet again that you can’t judge an event until it’s completed and that big names aren’t needed to make an event exciting.

10. Thank Goodness There’s Another Event on Friday

It was a bad night on the prediction front — 3-7 bad, 2-3 on the main card.

These things happen from time-to-time, but I won’t be deterred. I’ll be right back here Friday night with my picks for the UFC on FX card, ready to put a 7-3 mark on the board.

At least I hope that’s what happens; I can’t take another 3-7 performance.

* * * * * * * *

Keep up with the latest from Keyboard Kimura by joining the Facebook page.

If you’re on Twitter, be sure to follow me (@ESKonMMA) for even more MMA talk… and all kinds of randomness too.

With UFC142 almost upon us it’s time to preview what promises to be an exciting night of violence.

Aldo vs Mendes

Former WEC Featherweight Champion and current UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo will be fighting in front of his home crowd for the first time in the UFC.  Although he doesn’t have the profile Anderson Silva holds in his homeland, fans in Brazil will be more than aware of what “Junior” brings to the Octagon.  Holding a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu, Aldo has the tools to control the action from start to finish.

He faces Chad Mendes who has amassed a 6-0 record through his time in the UFC and WEC. Mendes is primarily a wrestler who is on a run of 4 decision victories.  Look for him to try to take the fight to the ground early and control Aldo’s movement by using the wrestling skills that took him to a runners up spot in the 2008 NCAA Championships.

I think the combination of appearing in front of a partisan home crowd and his willingness to step out of the shadow of Anderson Silva give Aldo the edge.  I predict a 4th round TKO for Jose Aldo.

Belfort vs  Johnson

By now you will surely have heard of Anthony Johnson’s issues with making weight for this bout.  Johnson tipped the scales at 197lbs, a huge 11lbs over the 186lb Middleweight weight limit.  A clearly angry Dana White told Johnson that if he could remain within 205lbs then the fight would still go ahead, a stipulation which Johnson met, only just.  Johnson is no stranger to missing weight, having twice previously failed to cut to the required weight.  ”Rumble” now looks to win his third fight in a row, a feat he accomplished once before in the UFC before succumbing to a rear naked choke in his fight with Josh Koshcheck.

After being knocked out by a Steven Segal inspired front kick by fellow Brazilian Anderson Silva at UFC126, Belfort rebounded in impressive fashion by defeating Yoshihiro Akiyama by first round KO back in August.  While Belfort is a feared submission expert, the fact that Johnson will enter the Octagon at 204.2lbs make his chances of controlling the fight on the ground slim.

I think Johnson takes this…just, but even if he does he isn’t guaranteed to still have a job after the fight, with Dana White calling his missed weight “Totally unprofessional”

Palhares vs Massenzio

Another Brazilian, Rousimar Palhares fights for the first time since his last appearance in Brazil at UFC134 where he took a decision off Dan Miller.  The BJJ black belt has a 6-2 record since joining the UFC, his only losses coming against Dan Henderson (UD) and Nate Marquardt (via a controversial TKO)

Mike Massenzio looks to string two wins together for the first time in his UFC career.  Also a BJJ black belt, Massenzio is fighting for the second time at Middleweight  after dropping a decision to Krzystof Soszynski while fighting at Light Heavyweight.

This should be a close fight but I think Palhares takes it by unanimous decision

Silva vs Prater

Erick Silva makes his return to the Octagon in only his second fight in the UFC.  A black belt in Judo and BJJ, Silva is a relative unknown quantity. What we have seen is a first round demolition of Luis Ramos at UFC134.

He faces fellow Brazilian, and UFC debutant, Carlo Prater.  Prater is a submission expert who holds a black belt in BJJ and a brown belt in Judo.  Carlo Prater holds a submission victory over Carlos Condit, who challenges Nick Diaz for the Interim Welterweight Title next month at UFC143.

Again, I don’t think there will be much between the two Brazilians, but I think Prater’s experience sees him come out on top with a first round submission.

Barboza vs Etim

Barboza comes into this fight with a spotless 9-0 record (3-0 in the UFC).  Last time out (also in Brazil at UFC134) he took a split decision over Etim’s fellow Brit Ross Pearson. Edson Barboza is an experienced Muay Thai fighter who will look to utilize his kickboxing and work the clinch.

This fight will be a stern test for Etim as he looks to follow up his impressive first round submission over Edward Faaloloto. Barboza will look to keep the fight standing and utilize his reach advantage over the Brit, but if Etim can catch a hold of him he is more than capable of extending his run of submission victories (currently standing at 4)

My head tells me that Barboza will win this but my heart tells me that Etim is hungry for a run at the belt so I’m taking Etim by Submission in the second round.  And would you bet against Etim getting his 5th Submission of the Night bonus?

Now it’s your turn.  What are your predictions for UFC142?

Follow me on Twitter @fourozgloves

That’s why I haven’t written about it yet; I’m sorting out my ideas and thoughts so that I don’t end up with 3,000 words running in seven different directions. I’m hoping a good sleep, a couple cups of coffee, and 20 minutes with the yellow legal pad on my desk will do the trick later today — Sunday at the latest.

I will say this, however — it doesn’t change my prediction on the fight; the assessment you read in a couple minutes further down the page is the same one I would have given you had “Rumble” registered a perfect 185-pounds on the scale.

Here’s who I like to win tonight, along with the why and the how.

These are the UFC 142 Punch Drunk Predictions.

* * * * * * * *

Jose Aldo (20-1) vs. Chad Mendes (11-0)

I’ve been going back and forth on this fight for a couple of weeks now, wondering whether or not Mendes’ tremendous wrestling and unquestioned conditioning are going to be Aldo’s kryptonite. I didn’t make up my mind on the answer until I saw Aldo sprint up the steps at the weigh-ins yesterday with a smile on his face.

As much as I think Mendes has the potential to corral Aldo, wrestling him to the ground, and grind out a 25-minute decision, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Not tonight. Not in Rio. Not in front of this crowd. Everything is lining up for this to be the moment Aldo uses to explode into super-stardom in his native Brazil, and since I think he has a tremendous sense of the moment, I think he captures it tonight and retains his title.

Aldo looked much better on the scale Friday than he did at both UFC 129 and UFC 136; he didn’t look as taxed as he had in his previous two appearances, and that will show early in the fight tonight. The champion’s speed and variety will be too much for Mendes to get a handle on in the opening rounds, with Aldo keeping distance, using his leg kicks, and punishing the challenger every time he comes in looking for a takedown.

Mendes might score a couple, but I don’t see him riding out rounds once he gets Aldo to the canvas. We’ve never really seen Mendes tested, so I can’t tell you what his chin is like or whether Aldo will be able to touch him in just the right place to turn the lights off. I think this one ends up playing out a lot like the Hominick fight early, and the Florian fight late, with Aldo dominating with his speed early, and cruising home by working angles and landing more late.

Prediction: Jose Aldo by Unanimous Decision

Vitor Belfort (20-9) vs. Anthony Johnson (10-3)

I loved this match-up for Johnson when it was announced, and I still like it now. His style and his strengths fit well with Belfort, and while the “keep it under 205-pounds” stipulation worries me a little, I think Johnson makes it into the cage, collects an explosive victory, and then spends a number of hours in heavy conversation with Dana White and company about his future in the organization.

Belfort’s biggest advantage most nights is being the bigger, stronger, faster man; the guy who can come forward, crack you on the button, and end your night, even if it means taking some of your best shots to get it done. The trouble is that when he’s faced with someone bigger, stronger, and faster than he is, there is no real Plan B. What makes this an even better match-up for Johnson is that he has the advantage on the ground as well.

I think Johnson comes out and looks to end things early, and if he doesn’t get the finish in the opening two or three minutes, he turns this into a grind. Johnson was going to be the bigger and stronger of the two before all his weight cutting issues, and so long as yesterday’s situation didn’t mess with his head or his body too much, the game plan he formulated prior to this fiasco is still applicable.

Prediction: Anthony Johnson by TKO, Round 1

Rousimar Palhares (13-3) vs. Mike Massenzio (13-5)

Sometimes, you’re just out of your league, and unfortunately for Massenzio, I think he’s in over his head here.

Palhares is a elite grappler, and as long as he doesn’t have any mid-fight brain cramps that give Massenzio a massive opening, the Brazilian submission wiz should be able to bully the New Jersey native around the cage, take him down, and find a submission. While Massenzio is a pretty solid wrestler and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, this will be one of those fights where you see that not all black belts are created equal, and the one Palhares sports is far superior.

Prediction: Rousimar Palhares by Submission, Round 1

Carlo Prater (29-10-1) vs. Erick Silva (13-1, 1 NC)

Erick Silva has been tabbed as the future of the welterweight division by the UFC middleweight champion, his mentor, Anderson Silva. While I know there is an obvious bias there, you can’t ignore that kind of endorsement, or the 40 second knockout Silva scored over Luis Ramos at UFC 134 in August.

Prater is a tough and experienced veteran who should give Silva a solid test. While I’m not quite as high on the 27-year-old Brazilian as his mentor is, I do believe he has a wealth of talent and potential that will be on display again here.

Silva should look to keep this standing and keep his opponent on the outside, as getting in close or bringing the fight to the floor offers Prater the best chance to work for a submission and avoid Silva’s power. Prater is a hard guy to put away, but I just don’t think he’s on the same level as Silva, who should be able to keep the fight upright, work his striking, and take home a decision win.

Prediction: Erick Silva by Unanimous Decision

Edson Barboza (9-0) vs. Terry Etim (15-3)

I actually changed my mind on this pick.

For as long as the bout was announced, I saw Barboza winning another close decision — using his leg kicks to keep Etim at bay, getting the better of the stand-up exchanges, and coming away with his fourth UFC victory and tenth consecutive win overall.

But I don’t think that any more. I think Etim beats him. In fact, I think Etim stops him.

The 26-year-old British lightweight is a finisher. Unlike Ross Pearson and Anthony Njokuani who both seemed content to stay on the outside and trade shots with Barboza, I think Etim continuously presses forward, eating some shots along the way before bringing this fight to the ground, and an arm of perhaps Barboza’s neck. As good as Barboza’s Muay Thai is, he’s far less effective when he isn’t given any room to work, and I see Etim closing the distance as quickly as possible, as often as it takes to get this fight into close quarters where he’ll eventually find a finish.

Prediction: Terry Etim by Submission, Round 2

Preliminary Card Predictions

Sam Stout over Thiago Tavares — Unanimous Decision
Edinaldo Oliveira over Gabriel Gonzaga — TKO, Round 1
Michihiro Omigawa over Yuri Alcantara — Unanimous Decision
Mike Pyle over Ricardo Funch — Submission, Round 2
Antonio Carvalho over Felipe Arantes — Unanimous Decision

Overall Record: 5-4 (2011: 207-135-3, 1 NC)
Main Card Redord: 4-1 (2011: 94-69-3)

* * * * * * * *

Keep up with the latest from Keyboard Kimura by joining the Facebook page.

If you’re on Twitter, be sure to follow me (@ESKonMMA) for even more MMA talk… and all kinds of randomness too.

UFC 142 is back in Rio! Here's our picks for the winners!!

We are back with another card prediction with UFC 142′s return to Rio this Saturday!!

Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

This will be a classic wrestler vs. striker matchup. Both fighters are undefeated in WEC and UFC as Aldo is 10-0 in the WEC and 2-0 in the UFC. Training in the FW/BW factory known as “Team Alpha Male”, Mendes is also undefeated in his MMA career with big wins over the likes of Omigawa and Javier Vazquez. Mendes’s dangerous wrestling game will be a key to defeat the explosive striking ability of Aldo. Mendes might just be the most decorated and powerful wrestler Aldo has faced in his career.  Aldo had struggle with Kenny Florian and Mark Hominick in his last two title defence, giving away the undefeatable mystic he had in his WEC fights, however, Mendes is not as well-rounded in the striking game as Hominick and Florian. Mende’s predictable wrestling game would be more manageable for Aldo. Expect this fight to look like Aldo-Faber with Aldo to winning by TKO in the second round.

Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson

It is the biggest mystery in the world that Anthony Johnson fought at 170 pounds. Originally set at a 185 middleweight bout, the fight has since been changed to a catch weight fight with Rumble missing weight by a ridiculous 11 pounds. It is unknown how much this effect the outcome of Rumble’s performance but he will have the size advantage against Belfort. This fighting should remain standing but don’t be surprised if Johnson decides to mix things up by taking it to the ground. If both fighters made weight fairly, this fight would go to Belfort; however, Rumble’s weight problems may allow him gain an advantage. Expect Rumble to bully Belfort into a 3 round unanimous decision win.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio

Palhares is fighting another fighter who is known for submission grappling…  hmm…  Palhares by ripping a limb off and taking it home.

Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim

At 6’1 in the lightweight division, Etim is known for keeping his opponents away with good striking and finishing with submission. Barboza is known more for his powerful strikes and likes to go for knocks-outs. Barboza will not face a reach disadvantage as he stands 5’11 and has a longer reach advantage than the taller Etim. Expect Barboza to win by knock out in the third round.

Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater

Since his impressive UFC debut at Rio, Silva has become a somewhat of a top prospect at the welterweight division. The Brazilian showed good speed and explosiveness and was able to knock out Luis Ramos in just 40 seconds.  Prater on the other hand, will be making his long-awaited debut with the UFC. The veterne of 40 professional MMA fight, relies on his submission game and went 4-0 in 2011. Submission over Silva may be a difficult task for Prater as Silva train with the likes of the Nogueria brothers and Anderson Silva. Look for Silva to finish Prater with strikes early in the 1^st round.

Jose Aldo is the prohibitive favorite Saturday to defend his featherweight championship against Chad Mendes at UFC 142 in Rio de Janeiro. (AP)

SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Loretta Hunt, Jeff Wagenheim and Jon Wertheim provide their predictions for UFC 142 on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro.

José Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

FOWLKES: If Mendes actually manages to go on the attack early, he could be the toughest test the champ has had in the UFC. In the end though, Aldo’s speed and ability to adjust mid-fight will make the difference. Aldo by decision.

HUNT: Aldo has more tools in his arsenal to thwart the grinding wrestler. Aldo by decision. 

WAGENHEIM: Mendes might have what it takes to put the champ in an uncomfortable position, but fighting in Brazil will provide an adrenaline rush that’ll keep Aldo in his comfort zone no matter what. Aldo by decision.

WERTHEIM: If Aldo, a WEC refugee, can defend the takedown and avoid Mendes superior wrestling, he should win by decision. Simply the more skilled all-around fighter. Aldo by decision.

Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson

FOWLKES: As long as Johnson can stay conscious past the three-minute mark of round one, I like his chances to outwrestle and outwork Belfort, who’s been known to fade when he doesn’t finish fast. Johnson by decision.

HUNT: In my book, Belfort will forever have one of the fastest, most accurate set of hands in the sport. Johnson’s debut at middleweight will show promise, but I like Belfort’s experience and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) centeredness going into this one. Belfort by TKO.

WAGENHEIM: A bulked-up Johnson is not to be taken lightly — nyuk, nyuk — but the heaviest things we’re going to see in the octagon during this bout will be Belfort’s punches. Belfort by KO.

WERTHEIM: Belfort will be the crowd favorite but there’s a lot of mileage on that odometer. A likely fight of extremes: Either Belfort by electrifying TKO or Johnson by pedestrian sprawl-and-stall decision. We’ll take the latter. Johnson by decision.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio

FOWLKES: Barring any more bizarre mental lapses — and those are always a possibility with Palhares — this one should be all “Toquinho.” Palhares by submission.

HUNT: Known for his vicious submissions, Palhares’ polished aggression will be too much for Massenzio, who just hasn’t met the same level of competition yet. Palhares by submission.

WAGENHEIM: Massenzio is big enough at middleweight to not get muscled around by Palhares, but will his wrestling keep him out of harm’s way against the submission specialist? Oh, well, I’ve got to pick an upset sometime. Massenzio by decision. 

WERTHEIM: Palhares is just masterful on the ground, classic BJJ sorcery. Palhares by submission.

Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater

FOWLKES: Prater’s a replacement for the injured Siyar Bahadurzada, who would have been a much tougher opponent for the up-and-coming Silva. Instead, he gets a veteran with more experience than truly threatening ability. Silva by TKO.

HUNT: Silva, who’s never competed outside of Brazil, has trained with the cream of his country’s crop, including UFC champ Anderson Silva and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. Floating in those circles will give him a leg up against one-month replacement Prater. Silva by TKO.

WAGENHEIM: It’s tough to pick against a guy on a 10-fight unbeaten streak. Unless he’s undertaking a significant step up in competition, which is not the case here. Silva by submission.

WERTHEIM: This feels dangerously close to a record-padding mismatch a la boxing. Silva is younger, stronger and, frankly, better than his veteran opponent on every dimension. Silva by TKO.

Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim

FOWLKES: I suspect that this won’t be quite as easy a fight for Barboza as oddsmakers seem to think, and Etim may surprise some people. But in a close fight, it helps to be a Brazilian fighting in front of a Brazilian crowd. Barboza by decision.

HUNT: Clearly a style vs. style matchup, Barboza has the striker’s edge over the submission-savvy Etim. Barboza by TKO.

WAGENHEIM: Coming off two straight Fight of the Night performances, the 9-0 Barboza will be out to impress the hometown crowd. Barboza by decision.

WERTHEIM: Barboza is 9-0 as a pro and the undefeated streak doesn’t look look to end Saturday. Barboza by decision.

Underdog Value

Sam Stout is an 11/10 underdog against Thiago Tavares on the undercard, and I could see some value with this. Tavares has never been the most consistent fighter and Stout has finally begun living up to some of the promise he showed in a very rocky start to his UFC career. Stout has a habit of winning close decisions thanks to his offensive output on the feet, and could just as easily KO Tavares. Shane Roller managed it and he is no kickboxing standout.

Terry Etim at 2/1 over Edson Barboza is another underdog with some upside. A dangerous submission game combined against a fighter who is yet to fully convince me of his overall place in the lightweight division.

Avoid

Chad Mendes at 2/1 over José Aldo. I can see a case for Mendes winning, but the odds would have to be considerably greater than 2/1 for me to risk throwing money down on him

Erick Silva 1/5 vs. Carlo Prater. I expect Silva to win, but he is still a prospect and he is a HUGE favourite against a decent fighter. Stick him in an accumulator. The same goes for Mike Pyle at 1/6. I expect him to win, but his performances fluctuate so drastically sometimes there’s always room for an upset

Other Markets

Rousimar Palhares  is 11/4 to win inside the first round, or if you’re not too confident on a finish that early, the fight is still 8/13 to be under 2.5 rounds and 4/7 to not go the distance, which I expect thanks to Palhares’ brute strength and terrifying submissions.

Paddy Power have a ‘samba special’ with Aldo, Belfort and Palhares to win at 2/1. An improvement on the treble odds. Worth a look if you want to go crazy, Otherwise it’s only a fraction above the treble price.

Bets

Palhares to win in Round 1

Palhares vs. Massenzio total rounds less than 2.5

Treble of Silva, Carvalho, Palhares

UPDATE

I’m not quite sure how I  missed Michihiro Omigawa at 6/4 vs. Yuri Alcantara! He should be the FIRM favourite. By no means a sure thing as like any MMA fight, it caould all end with one punch, but I’m going to have to throw down my £10 free bet on him for this Saturday night.

There is one thing I dislike, though. It’s Barboza’s tendency to get hit by his opponent. In fact, it could be argued that Barboza should be on a two-fight losing streak, as according to Fight Metric, he was out-struck by both Anthony Njokuani and Ross Pearson. The saving grace for Barboza in those fights is that he landed the harder strikes. He landed a devastating wheel kick in the closing seconds of his fight against Njokuani, and briefly knocked Pearson down in the second round of their fight at UFC 134. Still, if Barboza wants to remain undefeated, he can’t continue to lose the battle of striking volume, or else he will eventually lose one of these decisions.

We know what Barboza wants to do in this fight – stand and strike (although he will mix in a takedown once in a while). What about Terry Etim? Well, Etim’s statistical profile on Fight Metric is pretty unique. Etim has four submission wins in his UFC career, but he’s only attempted four takedowns in nine fights, and he’s only landed one of those takedowns. This is because three of those submission wins are by guillotine choke, a technique that doesn’t require takedowns, guard passing, or really, any knowledge of the ground game apart from the move itself.

So, if Etim doesn’t attempt takedowns, and Barboza doesn’t want to go to the ground in the first place, what are we likely to get? You guessed it: a striking battle. Now, if Etim gets in the clinch with Barboza, I have no doubt he’ll be looking for the guillotine, but I anticipate the majority of this fight to be contested at striking distance.

Will Etim be successful in such a fight? Well, just because Njokuani and Pearson enjoyed success against Barboza, it doesn’t mean Etim will also find great success. The simple reason for this is that Etim isn’t as good a striker as Njokuani and Pearson are. To illustrate this, I’m going to list each of the three fighters, and the difference between how many significant strikes they land per minute, and how many significant strikes they absorb per minute.

• Anthony Njokuani +3.07 (4.84 landed, 1.77 absorbed)
• Ross Pearson +1.36 (4.20 landed, 2.84 absorbed)
• Terry Etim +0.20 (2.41 landed, 2.21 absorbed)

SILVA PREDICTION: EDSON BARBOZA (71.73) OVER TERRY ETIM (49.33)

Throw in the fighters’ respective SILVA scores, and the overall picture looks bleak for Etim. If Etim can grab onto a guillotine choke, there’s always the possibility he could win that way, but otherwise, given his lack of takedown ability, he would need to win a striking battle against Barboza to win the fight. To that, all I can say is “good luck.”

Lightweight: Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim

Barboza is coming off a close decision in Rio that I thought he lost against Sunderland’s own Ross Pearson. Etim’s last fight was his first in 18 months against the over-matched Edward Faaloloto, who he submitted in 17 seconds. After bursting into the UFC with a vicotry laden with leg-kicks, I thought Barboza was about to run game on the lightweight division due to his size and obscene kicking power. However, I believe he was out-boxed in Rio in September by Ross Pearson, who now fights at featherweight. If Etim comes in with a good strategy I think he can frustrate Barboza on the feet with his wide array of kicks and decent boxing, as well as mixing things up with an above average ground game, even if his wrestling is still far from stellar. There might even be a chance for an Etim submission, though I don’t think there will be a T/KO due to Etim’s comparative lack of power, and his ability to recover from a good shot. Ultimately though, I fear Barboza may walk away with the decision thanks to some favourable home-town judging. Barboza by decision

Welterweight: Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater

Erick Silva impressed everyone with his rapid and brutal KO in his UFC début in Rio, and looks to have been matched with an opponent he is expected to beat. Prater is competent, with some WEC experience against decent fighters, but he is a late replacement, and Silva is deservedly the heavy favourite and should win comfortably. Silva by TKO, Round 2

Middleweight: Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio

I feel bad for Mike Massenzio. To add to Palhares’ frankly frightening submission ability, in his last fight (again in Rio) he showed improved stand-up and an ability to last for 3 rounds against Dan Miller, who is tough, and one of the most underrated fighters in the middleweight division. ‘Toquinho’ (tree stump in Portuguese) Palhares looks big, and having been fortunate enough to meet him, I can tell you in the flesh he seems even bigger than he appears on TV. I predict the fight ending quickly, and with considerable pain for Massenzio. Palhares by submission, Round 1

Middleweight: Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson

For me, this is the toughest fight to call. Both fighters are frontrunners, slowing down when facing adversity, and each one certainly has the ability to put the other in a tough spot with their stand-up. Johnson with his insane power, and Belfort with his lightning-fast handspeed. Ina ddition, Johnson has good wrestling (choosing to continuously take Dan Hardy down for 3 rounds for a UD win when he could have just as easily blown his doors of on the feet), and Belfort has underrated jiu-jitsu. To complicate matters, this is Johnson’s first fight at 185 pounds, and who knows what effect this will have. On one hand, he will have had to cut considerably less weight, so his cardio may well be drastically improved, though the extra weight may effect his speed somewhat. One this that is guaranteed is that his power will be left intact, if not enhanced at this higher weight class. Though I think the smart money may be with Vitor, I have a feeling that we could see him being peeled off the mat after one or two power shots from ‘Rumble’. Johnson by KO, Round 2

UFC Featherweight Championship: José Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

José Aldo finally faces a powerhouse wrestler, but that shouldn’t stop him from racking up his 10th (TENTH) victory in a row under the Zuffa banner, and 13th in a row overall. I actually expect Aldo to finish Mendes in the first few rounds. Mendes may be able to get a take-down or two, and because of this, I think Aldo will be much more aggressive on the feet than in his previous fights, and in this aspect of the fight he has Mendes outmatched by an enormous distance. Mendes’ team-mates swear he is good on the feet, and has power, but he has been tentative up to this point in his career with his boxing so there really has been no evidence of this as far as I can remember. Tentative or not, Aldo is so fast, he should light Mendes up after a round or two of feeling out, and remain the UFC champ. Aldo by TKO, Round 2

Vitor Belfort (20-9) vs. Anthony Johnson (10-3)

This one is an enigma wrapped in dynamite for me, as Johnson makes his much-anticipated debut at middleweight against the equally explosive Belfort in a contest that could end very quickly.

The expectation is that Johnson will be even better now that he’s not using up energy draining himself to make the 170-pound welterweight limit, and I tend to agree. “Rumble” was explosive down a division, and that came after chopping an addition 15 pounds off his massive frame. Now that he’s not spending all that time in the sauna, he should have at least the same amount of pop, if not more. But the change in division isn’t the only positive working for Johnson heading into this fight.

He’s found a home now with “The Blackzilians” in Boca Raton, Florida, and is surrounded by an excellent team of coaches and fellow fighters who are helping him make the most of his considerable talents. Johnson did well amassing a 6-3 prior to joining the Imperial Athletics team, and looked phenomenal in his post-move debut in October. Early stoppage or not, he was smashing Charlie Brenneman. The middleweight version could be even more dangerous.

Which is what makes Belfort such a great opponent for him in his debut.

There are few fighters in the middleweight ranks with a better combination of speed and power than Belfort, and the former light heavyweight champion is hungry to put himself back into title contention after failing to capture the gold last February. He absolutely pummeled Yoshihiro Akiyama in August, and while he should have a date with Wanderlei Silva sometime this summer after coaching opposite “The Axe Murderer” on TUF Brazil, another dominant performance against Johnson would put him right back onto Anderson Silva’s short list of challengers.

Though Belfort is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, it’s been ages seen we’ve seen him show an interest in taking a fight to the ground. His preferred method of combat is to stand and trade, and while Johnson could certainly be up for a throwdown, he also has a collegiate wrestling background most people tend to forget about in his back pocket that he can turn to in fights like this. While his four-inch reach advantage could certainly help keep Belfort on the outside, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnson use his wrestling — and still developing jiu-jitsu skills — to control the location and pace of this one.

Or either one could knock the other out with the first bomb they throw.

Both options are exciting to me, and waiting to see which one plays out is becoming difficult. Is it Saturday yet?

Mike Massenzio (13-5) vs. Rousimar Palhares (13-3)

Coming off a solid victory over Steve Cantwell at UFC 136, Massenzio gets a sizable step up in competition here to take on the mercurial Palhares.

With just a 2-3 record in his first five UFC appearances, it would be easy to write off the New Jersey native here, but I think that would be selling Massenzio short. He took his fight against Krzysztof Soszynski at UFC 131 on two days notice, and is a scrappy competitor with good all-around skills.

Massenzio looked solid against Cantwell, battling back after losing the opening round to dominate the former WEC light heavyweight champion, and has the moxie to potentially frustrate Palhares in this one. His wrestling and jiu-jitsu background should be beneficial as well, because it won’t take long for his opponent to go hunting for a leg lock.

It seems like Palhares is one of those guys that has gobs of talent, but is a couple cards short of a full deck up top. From stopping to complain to the referee in his fight against Nate Marquardt to his premature celebration last time against Dan Miller, “Toquinho” doesn’t always seem to be completely focused on his surroundings and the situation he’s in, and that makes him tough to get a handle on. If he’s figured out the mental side of things, Palhares could be scary.

The Brazilian’s leg locks are nasty, and he tends not to let go until the referee pries him from his opponent, a habit that has gotten him suspended in the past. Built like a fire hydrant, Palhares showed improved striking in his bout with Miller, including flashing some previously unseen power. Combined with his high end jiu-jitsu game, the 29-year-old could be a dark horse contender in the middleweight ranks this year, provided he doesn’t do anything crazy here.

Carlo Prater (29-10-1) vs. Erick Silva (13-1, 1 NC)

Would it have been even better if Siyar Bahadurzada was still facing Silva? Absolutely, but the pairing of the experienced UFC newcomer Prater with the highly regarded prospect is a good combination, and a good measuring stick for both fighters moving forward.

Prater has been around the block a time or two, having fought the likes of Carlos Condit, Melvin Guillard, Spencer Fisher, and various other proven names in the business. He has a very good submission game with a preference for chokes; of his 16 submission wins, 12 are by some form of choke. This is a tremendous opportunity for the itinerant Prater to earn a place on the UFC roster beyond this fight, and if he comes in ready to make the most of it, this could be a fight that surprises a few people.

A protege of UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva (no relation), “Indio” made a splash in his UFC debut in August, knocking out fellow Brazilian Luis Ramos in just 40 seconds. Tabbed as one of the fighters to watch in the welterweight division in 2012, Silva has a solid submission game as well, having won the majority of his fights on the ground. Prater is a good test for Silva at this stage of his career, as he brings far more experience — against far more experience competition — than anyone the 27-year-old has faced in the past.

Prior to his UFC 134 showing, I would have thought this would bout would play out on the ground, but I’m not sure now. Silva looked great in the 40 seconds it took to finish Ramos, countering quickly and with force, and could look to force Prater to stay on his feet. While he’s not completely out of his element standing, Prater’s best bet is to turn this into a jiu-jitsu match, and even then there are no guarantees he gets the best of things.

Edson Barboza (9-0) vs. Terry Etim (15-3)

Like I said yesterday, this is my Fight of the Night pick and a bout that should be getting far more attention than it has to this point.

Barboza has earned back-to-back Fight of the Night awards for his back and forth battles with Ross Pearson (UFC 134) and Anthony Njokuani (UFC 128), and has some of the most devastating leg kicks in the division. He mixed up his striking well and is extremely quick and slippery in the pocket, though he tends to move straight back with his head high when he comes under fire. He’ll have a two-inch reach advantage on Etim, and should use that to keep the Brit on the outside as best he can.

Personally, I think Etim is one of the most slept on competitors in the lightweight division, though I understand that 19 months on the sidelines will do that to you.

Prior to his loss at UFC 112, the 26-year-old Liverpool native had rattled off four consecutive victories, and was making a steady climb up the rankings. He returned from his hiatus in November, needing just 17 seconds to snatch Eddie Faalaloto’s neck in a nasty guillotine choke, and turns around quickly to meet Barboza in this one. While his submission game is his biggest strength, Etim has solid striking of his own, and is probably the more well-rounded of the two.

This one will come down to how well Etim can close the distance and if he’s able to bring this fight to the ground. We’ve yet to see what Barboza has to offer off his back, and Etim has enough weapons in his submission arsenal to test the Brazilian should he get him on the mat. If he’s not able to and Barboza can maintain space as he’s done in his previous three UFC appearances, Etim could be force fed a steady diet of leg kicks. Though I think he can hang in there and pair with Barboza to deliver an exciting fight, a stand-up battle favors the unbeaten Brazilian.

* * * * * * * *

Keep up with the latest from Keyboard Kimura by joining the Facebook page.

If you’re on Twitter, be sure to follow me (@ESKonMMA) for even more MMA talk… and all kinds of randomness too.