Tags » Efficient Market Hypothesis

Speculation is (Almost Always) Stupid.

Speculation, in whatever way you slice it, is trying to go long what´s cheap (which may be relative) and short what´s expensive (also possibly relative). There are almost as many strategies for speculation that you can imagine (the successful strategies just might not be what you imagine). 720 more words

My Investment Strategy

People think that I know about investing. I don’t. Or at least not much. More than your average tree-stump, but less than my friends who work in banks. 865 more words

My Life

Why the Efficient Market Hypothesis Is Invalid

In the 1960s, Eugene Fama developed the idea of the efficient market hypothesis. This theory states that “the price of an asset reflects all relevant information that is available about the intrinsic value of the asset.” Advocates of the hypothesis believe that technical or fundamental analysis cannot predict the future performance of a stock. 1,033 more words


Buffet's Billion, EMH, and AGW

Pay attention!  Warren Buffet and Quicken Loans is offering $1 billion for a perfect NCAA bracket.  The rules say it is the 63 games in the tournament proper so you don’t need to predict the four play-in games.   314 more words

Buy the Market

Value is entirely subjective. The only way to know if someone values something higher than something else is if they choose the one thing over the other. 647 more words

Stocks only go up.

Josh Brown has another good post today.  He explains that an additional factor in the stock market’s continued rise is more passive money management by brokers and RIAs: 492 more words