The last decade has been a tumultuous one for green transportation in the U.S. Take the on-again off-again electric vehicle market. We entered the 2000’s with rules in California requiring automakers to offer EVs, but by 2003, state regulators changed the rules and many automakers dropped EV initiatives and focused on gas guzzlers. But here we are nearing the end of 2009, and automakers are now investing heavily in electric vehicles, natural gas cars are gaining traction in high places, and hydrogen cars are about as far off as ever.

Here’s our take on some of the most persistent predictions of the past decade for what kind of green transit we’d have by 2010. We invite you to share your own thoughts on broken promises, dead-on predictions or what kind of Jetsons-esque transit options you once thought we’d have delivered by this point in time. To get things rolling, here’s our top five.

1). Prediction: Natural gas vehicles will go mainstream. “I think our time has come, and I think we’re ready [for natural gas vehicles],” T. Boone Pickens told Green Car Journal  in 2005. “You might say, well, if you’re talking about Monday morning, probably not. But I’m talking about the next two or three years. I think there’s going to be some real changes in the use of this fuel.”

How’d that work out?: Pickens is still touting the potential of natural gas vehicles to help wean the U.S. off imported fuels, and the tech is now getting federal attention. Legislators introduced a bill this year aimed at encouraging the development and purchasing of natural gas vehicles. But natural gas vehicles are far from mainstream, and have yet to make a real dent in the U.S. consumer market.

2). Prediction: California will finally get high-speed rail. “It could be a matter of years — not lifetimes — before Californians can zip from the Bay Area to Los Angeles on a bullet train in less than three hours…the first train could roll out of the station in 2010.” the San Jose Mercury News wrote in 1999.

How’d that work out?: Voters approved $9.95 billion in bond funding for the long-discussed project in November 2008, but this month the High Speed Rail Authority tossed the project’s route back into limbo by reneging on its approval of an environmental study for a section of the train. According to the Sacramento Bee, the latest cost estimates for the line jumped to $42.6 billion, up from the previous estimate of $33.6 billion. The new numbers take into account inflation costs expected between 2012 and 2020, when construction is — in theory — supposed to take place. We expect it could be another decade or more before Cali residents will see the benefits of this tech.

3). Prediction: Hydrogen cars are just around the corner. “You’ll be able to buy a commercially viable hydrogen car by 2009 in the showrooms in the U.S., along with regular fossil-fuel internal-combustion cars,” Jeremy Rifkin, author of The Hydrogen Economy toldSalon.com in 2002. “Those hydrogen cars will use fossil fuels to get the hydrogen, but at least it’s a bridge.” California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said in 2004 that he envisioned every citizen in California having access to hydrogen fuel along state highways by 2010.

How’d that work out?: It didn’t. Still waiting.

4). Prediction: Hybrids will form a bridge to EVs.“In the near term, at least, hybrid cars are more likely than battery-electrics to be a solution to the problems of air pollution and dependence on imported oil,” the New York Times wrote in 2000. “Toyota, which has produced both types of vehicles, told California regulators last week that the public was not ready to accept electrics; indeed, Toyota said it could not sell the cars and would have to pay customers to take them.”

How’d that work out?: That prediction still seems on target. Toyota’s early bet on hybrid tech with the Prius proved a smart one, but even the hybrid leader is now working on an “affordable” plug-in model for 2011. Global Insight has forecast that hybrids could snag some 5-11 percent of the U.S. market by 2015, up from 2.2 percent in 2007. By comparison, electric vehicles are expected to take a smaller, but growing share of the market in that time frame.

5). Prediction: It’s clear sailing now for electric car tech. “There are no technology hurdles at all [for electric transportation]. It’s simply a matter of getting the vehicle built out on the street and getting people to recognize its value,” Robert Graham of the Electric Power Research Institute said in a 2005 New York Times article.

How’d that work out?: One of the biggest remaining hurdles for mass-market adoption of electric cars — cost — has everything to do with technology. The battery technology, that is. The race is on now to reduce cost by increasing energy density. Startups including Envia Systems, Amprius, PowerGenix, Mobius Power, Seeo and many more are trying to tackle this.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user seanmcgrath

Top Green Stories of the Decade: Take a stroll through 10 years of green headline grabbers, including these stories: climate took over the environmental movement, local got vocal, we got a raft of new body-invaders to fret about (like BPA and PVC), and green went pop. — Grist

First Solar, Hot or Not?: First Solar “may not be as hot as it looks.” It has dropped four large-scale solar plant projects in California alone after plans were denied by the Bureau of Land Management, and one of its 150-megawatt projects slated for 2,100 acres in Colorado has now also been canceled. — VentureBeat’s GreenBeat

Ship Emission Crackdown: “U.S. environmental regulators on Tuesday finalized engine and fuel standards for U.S. flagged ships to cut emissions that cause lung diseases and save more than $100 billion in health costs.” — Reuters

COP15 Could Boost Geo-Engineering: The fiasco at the Copenhagen climate talks this month might give fresh momentum to geo-engineering — the idea of “tinkering with the earth’s climate to keep temperatures down,” through schemes like seeding clouds, spraying particles into the atmosphere, or building huge sunshades. — WSJ’s Environmental Capital

Incentives OK’d for Think Factory in Indiana: Norway-based automaker Think still hasn’t issued an official statement saying where it will build a new plant for its electric City, Think acknowledges, “I think we are further along with Indiana than we are with other states,” after winning approval from Indiana’s Elkhart County Council for a 10-year tax abatement worth $500,000. — Indianapolis Business Journal via Autoblog Green

According to this report, Panasonic estimates the global market for Li-ion batteries will increase fivefold by 2018 as more people seek low-emission vehicles and opt to use mobile electronics like notebook computers.

Justin Blows

Volvo C30 Electric - A Detroit Auto Shoe Preview

The electric Hatchback Volvo, is based on the company’s smallest model. The Volvo C30 previously debuted at the Frankfurt Motor Show but will be one of the many green cars creating a buzz a the up coming Detroit Auto Show.

A new generation of plug-in vehicles designed for mainstream U.S. consumers is slated to roll out over the next five years — giving car buyers more electric options than ever before. But while automakers are racing to develop models that could eventually see mass market adoption, car companies’ inaugural electric efforts are widely expected to make up only a small portion of the auto market. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett recently predicted that all cars will be electric by 2030, but most forecasters anticipate a slower rate of adoption for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Electric vehicles on the world’s roadways could number in the hundreds of thousands by 2015, as Pike Research put it last week, but “the full effects of this automotive revolution will take years to be realized in the mainstream market.” What are some of the factors that could keep prospective car buyers from going electric in the coming years? Here are 10 signs you probably won’t be first in line for a gen-1 EV.

1. Your budget’s already tight. A $7,500 tax rebate will be available to help bring within reach some of the earliest electric vehicles targeted for mainstream consumers. (The government will reduce the max credit offered for a given manufacturer’s vehicles after the company has sold at least 200,000 vehicles.) But with prices falling mostly into the $40,000-and-up range, first-gen plug-in models will be too expensive for many.
2. You live in an apartment. While homeowners with a personal garage can have a charge point installed and see the electricity costs added to their regular utility bill, apartment complexes will require a smart charging system with secure login and billing features so that residents are charged accurately. That means renters will be at the mercy of building owners’ enthusiasm (or lack thereof) when it comes to having access to a charging station at home.
3. You’re waiting for a gas tax hike. General Motors’ (s GM) Bob Lutz and Ford (s F) Executive Chairman Bill Ford have suggested that gas taxes may need to be hiked up for U.S. consumers to cough up the extra dough for an electric car. But at least two factors counter the idea that a jump in gas taxes will push a typical consumer in the next few years to invest in a plug-in vehicle. First, it’s unlikely that in this time frame we’ll see a gas tax hike — most politicians would rather keep a safe distance away from taxing Americans’ fuel. Second, fuel makes up a relatively small portion of the total cost of ownership for personal vehicles. So a gas tax hike probably won’t be the last straw that spurs purchase of first-gen electric vehicles.
4. You just threw down for a Prius. Consumers who just joined the hybrid bandwagon and invested in a third-generation 2010 Prius this year have a car that should last well beyond the introduction of plug-in models in the 2010-2015 time frame. The new Prius starts at around $22,000, and fully loaded costs a little over $32,000. Most electric models coming out in the next few years will likely start around $40,000, with luxury models running up to more than double that price.
5. You don’t live in California. Some of the earliest plug-in vehicle models will roll out to customers and fleet operators in California. The Los Angeles area in particular has attracted interest from EV developers for its high population density, notorious air pollution problems, large car market, affluent consumers and history of adopting new technologies early on. California has some public charging infrastructure from its first attempt at spurring EV adoption in the 1990s, and thousands more are slated for installation over the next few years. Plug-in vehicle developers eyeing California as their lead market range from Coda Automotive to BYD Auto to General Motors.
6. You want a truly zero-emission vehicle. All-electric vehicles may lack an exhaust belching tailpipe, but they’re only as green as the source of their electricity. If you’re waiting for an electric vehicle that can plug into a zero- or low-emission grid (powered mostly with renewable energy sources like wind and solar), keep waiting. Cleaning up the power grid will take many years after the launch of the earliest electric models.
7. You want an “all-American” model. The earliest electric models to hit the market will be largely international efforts. General Motors is getting the battery cells for its Chevy Volt from South Korea’s LG Chem, for example. And Tesla Motors, the poster child for a new American auto enterprise, gets its lithium-ion cells from Japanese suppliers and has contracted manufacturing out to the UK’s Lotus. If stimulus-funded projects go according to plan, more manufacturing will be done stateside for later models, but factories for models like the Tesla Model S and Fisker Nina aren’t scheduled to begin producing vehicles until 2011. Other companies, like Think and V-Vehicle aim to set up manufacturing in the U.S., but they have yet to secure financing.
8. You demand triple-digit MPG. If you expect to test drive a Chevy Volt, Nissan (s NSANY) LEAF or Tesla Roadster and experience miles per gallon in the triple digits — as advertised — you may be sorely disappointed. Measurements of a car’s efficiency in terms of how far it can go on a gallon of gasoline, when it really runs (at least in part) on electricity, have dubious relevance. More realistic shorthand for how much you will end up spending on electricity for different plug-in vehicles may come in the form of electricity per mile ratings.
9. You’re not on the list. Some electric vehicle makers are already taking reservations and pre-orders for upcoming models. Not every vehicle slated for production has been spoken for — but some models in small initial rollouts could go quickly. BMW fielded at least 1,800 applications this year for the 450-vehicle field trial of its electric Mini E.
10. You’re so over ownership. If you (and your city or college campus) are really ahead of the curve, your next set of wheels won’t come in the form of vehicle ownership at all — you’ll buy mobility as a service instead, taking advantage of car- and bike-sharing networks and improved public transit, plus smartphone apps and online tools for managing it all.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user CoreForce

If you live in Oklahoma, you have until December 31, 2009 to buy an electric car for about $900.

eco car

As of June 29, 2009 the Stimulus Act was passed. With it a provision which allows qualified plug-in electric Vehicles to receive a tax credit for new purchases ranging from $7,500 to $15,000 depending on the gross vehicle weight rating. This ACT qualifies Kandi Coco for an estimated $4,435. Many states like Oklahoma offer an additional state credit. Call today to see how much you could save.

Greenwash or Real Deal?: “Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tells Copenhagen that Iran, a fossil fuel giant, wants to dive into renewable energy and stitch cooperative links with other developing nations to develop non-fossil fuel energy,” including solar and wind. — WSJ’s Environmental Capital

Road Ahead for Electric Cars: Pike Research offers predictions for the electric vehicle market in 2010, and warns that,”Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B.” – CNET’s Planetary Gear, Pike Research

Tesla Takes Marketing Bonanza on the Road: Tesla Motors kicked off a 2,700-mile cross-country road trip this morning. Engineers, lawyers and other employees of the electric car startup will make dozens of stops over the next three weeks for test drives, tech talks and “customer-appreciation events” en route to the Detroit Auto Show. — Press Release

Inhofe Weighs In: Republican Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, “one of the most ardent detractors of man-made climate change,” showed up in Copenhagen Thursday morning to tell negotiators that the chances Congress will approve pending climate legislation are “zero.” — The Boston Globe’s Green Blog

German Researchers Go With the Flow: A team of German engineers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Chemical Technology thinks it may be possible to produce a flow battery for an electric car which can be recharged in minutes, pumping out the discharged electrolyte and replacing it with a solution that has been recharged elsewhere. – The Economist

By Elisa Wood

December 17, 2009

If The Graduate were written today, Mr. McGuire’s career tip to Benjamin probably would have been “green,” rather than “plastics.”  But it’s likely Benjamin would have responded in the same quizzical way: “Just how do you mean that, sir?”

It was difficult to envision the vast number of new products, businesses and careers that would emerge from the plastics industry following World War II. The same is true for the green energy industry today.  A report issued December 16 by PricewaterhouseCoopers sheds some light. http://www.pwc.com/us/cleantechrevolution

To know where the business opportunities will be, watch the unusual alliances forming among industries, according to “Cleantech Revolution: Building Smart Infrastructures.” We see hints already as automakers, utilities, battery makers and communications providers ally in preparation for an expected $165 billion smart grid build-out. The report cites several examples, among them:

• Nissan’s partnership with San Diego Gas & Electric to build electric vehicle charging stations
• Echelon and T-Mobile’s deal to create wireless networks connecting utilities to smart meters
• Cisco assisting Duke Energy in building a smart grid

“As the build-out gains traction, it has the potential to support a proliferation of new businesses across sectors, much like the evolution of both the semiconductor industry and the Internet,” says Tim Carey, PWC U.S. clean technology leader.

Don’t be surprised, says the report, to see a national retail store chain partner with an electric battery maker to install charging stations nationwide for plug-in electric vehicles. A new wave of corporate mergers and acquisitions also could be in the cards.  The opportunities are vast, especially when you consider the size of the smart grid. The US has 160 million households awaiting installation of smart meters. These new devices will require changes in the way we operate our electrical infrastructure, which encompasses 3,100 utilities, 10,000 power plants, 5,600 distributed energy facilities and 157,000 miles of high voltage transmission wires, says the report. How many better mousetraps can a system of this size support? More than we can imagine.

The clean technology, boom, however, depends heavily on consumer acceptance. If consumers find smart meters too complicated or plug-in hybrids unreliable, the game is over.  To avoid this problem, organizations like the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy are focusing on understanding customer motivation. http://www.aceee.org/conf/09becc/09beccindex.htm.

Use of smart grid technologies must become “pervasive and ingrained,” says the PWC report.  Sunil Sharan, of the Center for American Progress, sees the smart meter becoming like the Blackberry, “with all sorts of applications.” Indeed, energy industry insiders often describe the next game changer – whatever it will be – as the cell phone of energy.  But given how integral electricity is to our everyday lives, clean technologies need to become everyman products. Out of the corporate alliances, the mergers, the breakthroughs and the investment deals, maybe it’s not energy’s cell phone that will make fortunes, but its plastic wrap.

Visit Elisa Wood at http://www.realenergywriters.com/ and pick up her free Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.

Who says living in NYC is expensive?

Build Your Own Electric Motorcycle by Carl Vogel

Wow- this weekend we have Seth Leitman and Carl Vogel joining us to answer all your questions about electric car conversions and building your own electric motorcycle. Carl can also answer questions regarding Biodiesel and Straight Veg Oil conversions.

If the weather holds out, we’ll have Carl’s famous electric motorcycle with biodiesel/svo backup generator in the sidecar.

SATURDAY, GOSSETT’S FARM MARKET, 10 am to 1 pm. They’ll be there to answer all your questions and sign books!

These two guys are authors in the “Green Guru Guides” by McGraw Hill press.

Part of Seth's Green Guru Guides

How quickly dreams can become nightmares.

Just a few days after the engineering team behind the Chevrolet Volt triumphantly rolled out the production version of its much-anticipated car for journalists to test, the folks in marketing [who should probably be fired or publicly flogged] followed it up with folk music, break dancing, and what looks like a few rejects from a 1986 high school production of the “Pirates of Penzance”.

Click here for VIDEO of the Chevy Volt Dancers

Word that General Motors had commissioned a theme song for the car called “Chevy Volt and Me” first turned up last week on gm-volt.com, an independent blog dedicated to the development of the car.

With lyrics that include lines such as “what will get us out of first gear? A better EV. Not that that’s a big idea(r)”, the milquetoast tune seemed anathema to the high-tech, next-gen image GM has been crafting for the car up to this point.

Now there’s the video.

Although it looks more like a “Saturday Night Live” skit, the dance routine that was performed on the Volt display at the Los Angeles Auto Show is all too real. Captured by a visitor who uploaded the video to YouTube, three females wearing puffy shirts and the aforementioned break dancer, who also plays air guitar, shake just about everything on their bodies for the duration of the song. Often out of sync. Reportedly, the cringe-inducing interpretation of an electric-powered future took place every hour during the ten days of the show.

When asked about it during a web chat with journalists on Monday, GM’s newly-minted head of marketing, Susan Docherty said she hadn’t “yet seen the Chevrolet Volt song and dance but it sounds like I need to spend some time tonight on the web viewing this.” [Duh! How does this get past the HEAD of marketing?]

She’s not the only one.

Source: FoxNews.com

I drove a stick shift today! 

I tried once many-a-year-ago when I was in high school.  My best friend’s aunt tried to teach us and, while Andrea got it, I was pretty terrified of the whole thing.  I didn’t even get my license until I was 21, but by then Andrea had driven off in her own life and trying to get around without a car was really hard. So, later – with the promise of a car from my grandpa, I practiced driving my mom’s Pathfinder along the back country roads of Otis and eventually got my license.  Of all the people who’ve tried to teach me to drive, my younger brother was the best.  I went out with him two times (driving to and from the DMV) and he taught me several useful things: 1) to merge, you can’t go too slow or too fast – try to match them, 2) it’s ok to miss your turn and backtrack, and 3) you have the right to turn around and say to your passengers: “Shut the &^%$ up, I’m driving!”. 

One of the things I kept coming across in my electric conversion research is how much easier and more efficient using manual transmissions are.  Bleek!  That one afternoon in a parking lot years and years ago immediately made my belly scrinch up. But some of my friends drive a stick shift and I’d thought on numerous occasions: “what if they broke their leg and I had to drive them to the hospital in their car?”  So, Sunday my friend loaded three of us into her car and we went to a nearby highschool to drive around.  We weren’t the only ones, although we were the oldest.  I did pretty good!  Warren had described the mechanism to me the night before and that helped a lot – I could see in my head how my actions created change in the car.  And having the experience of driving in traffic already, feeling my car and how it changed gears on its own, and my muscle knowledge of break vs gas all contributed to my success.  Yay!  And tonight I’ll get to drive home – over 30 miles and lots of traffic lights!  PHEW!

Honestly, I was putting off pursuing this electric car thing partly because of my discomfort with stick-shifts.  But not anymore!  So, here’s a pie chart showing the inhibiting factors before and after this weekend:

Boston-Power, a battery maker, has joined a new coalition of companies funded by the Swedish government to develop electric vehicles. The coalition — which includes struggling auto brand Saab, electric power train developer Electroengine in Sweden, project incubator and manager Innovatum Technology Park, and Swedish power industry trade group Power Circle — has built a small number of demonstration models and plans to produce more than 100 vehicles in 2010, according to a release this morning. The Swedish Energy Agency awarded a grant of 86 million SEK (about $12 million) this week for the partners to develop the model, dubbed the ZE Saab 9-3 (an electric version of the Saab 9-3 sedan).

As far as automotive allies go for Boston-Power, Saab — the loss-making Swedish division of General Motors (s GM) – may not be the biggest coup. As the Wall Street Journal notes this morning, GM has struggled to close a deal for Saab’s assets and said last month that it would wind down the brand if it couldn’t find a buyer by year’s end. But an approximately $197 billion deal that closed yesterday with China-based Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co. (BAIC) will likely be enough, Reuters reports, to keep Saab running for at least three months, “meaning there is no immediate threat of the company going under.” Whether Boston-Power and the other partners can push through with the plan for 2010 despite Saab’s shaky status remains to be seen.

Today’s announcement about Boston-Power’s latest activities overseas comes in the wake of a rejection from the Department of Energy that ended the startup’s plan to set up manufacturing operations stateside. Boston-Power had requested $100 million in stimulus funds under the highly competitive battery grant program (local rival A123Systems (s AONE) snagged more than $249 million) for a factory in Auburn, Mass. In August, after the DOE rejected the request, Boston-Power CEO Christina Lampe-Onnerud told the Boston Globe, “Our issue is that we need to expand production capacity now,” in part because it was already producing batteries for several customers in the automotive market, she said, while declining to name companies.

Despite the uncertainty involved with this project, it offers a sign of confidence in the 4-year-old startup’s EV tech. Boston-Power, based in Massachusetts with manufacturing operations in Taiwan, represents the only non-Swedish company in the group. The startup initially focused on the market for notebook batteries, supplying upgrade batteries for Hewlett-Packard laptops. But nearly a year ago, Lampe-Onnerud (a native of Sweden) told us Boston-Power was working on a transportation battery, and in May the company unveiled a battery, called Swing, for plug-in vehicles.

Plug-In Prius Hybrid - 2011

Finally! Announced yesterday – December 14th. An electric solution that makes sense for people like me.

This Prius has additional battery capacity as compared to the standard hybrid version. It can travel about 14.5 miles on electric power before reverting to its hybrid status and using the gasoline engine. That’s enough power to get someone like myself to work each day without using the gas engine. It will allow many to go to the grocery store or the gym without gasoline consumption. But best of all, it doesn’t limit the usefulness of the car. I can still take a trip to visit my kids and grandkids 500 miles away.

This is the sort of solution we’ve needed. It will roll out to the general public in 2011, about a year from now. The cost is to be reasonable at a proposed $22,000 (+/-).

Wired has a good article if you would like to read more.

When Toyota (s TM) detailed plans this summer to lease hundreds of plug-in hybrids based on its popular Prius model by year’s end, the automaker called the program “a key first step in confirming how and when we might bring large numbers of plug-in hybrids to global markets.” Today Toyota both nailed down a time frame and hinted at a price for the next step: launching the plug-in hybrid versions of the Prius in 2011, initially at a scale of several tens of thousands of vehicles per year. Toyota Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada also reiterated to Bloomberg reporters in Tokyo on Monday that the automaker plans to start selling an all-electric vehicle designed for short distances by 2012 — the year Toyota has previously said it plans to roll out an electric model based on the FT-EV for short urban commutes.

The hybrid leader’s plans to go ahead with the plug-in Prius in 2011 with a price tag that Uchiyamada suggested today could be as low as $35,000 marks a milestone for lithium-ion battery technology. Earlier this year, Toyota commented that the benefits of lithium batteries — small fuel economy gains in hybrids over nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries due to lighter weight — did not justify the higher cost. But for the upcoming plug-in hybrid model, Uchiyamada said today the pricing will be “affordable,” at less than $10,000 above the cost of the regular Prius in order to make the model cheaper than after-market conversion kits.

Selling at less than $35,000 (the third-generation Prius starts at $22,400), the plug-in Prius could undercut some of the highest-profile plug-in models slated to roll out in the next five years, including General Motors’ extended-range electric Volt (expected to cost around $40,000) and Fisker Automotive’s $47,400 plug-in hybrid Project Nina vehicle.

Firm details on Toyota’s plug-in model have been a long time coming: Today’s announcement comes more than three years after Toyota began working on lithium-ion batteries as an alternative to the NiMH batteries used in its Prius hybrid; nearly a year after the automaker revealed that it had engineered the third-generation Prius to package either a lithium-ion battery for plug-in capability, or an NiMH, for the current hybrid; and six months after Toyota first revealed plans to churn out at least 20,000 plug-in hybrids in 2012.

While the plug-in Prius marks Toyota’s first foray into lithium-ion batteries for propulsion in a vehicle slated for the mass market, the game plan Toyota described today highlights continuing focus on hybrid technology at a time when some competitors, including Nissan (s NSANY) and Mitsubishi, are racing for an early lead in the market for all-electric vehicles. Uchiyamada told reporters today that sales for the 2012 electric model will likely be “a lot less” than the plug-in Prius.

The regular hybrid model, meanwhile, is hardly on the way out — which could mean continued dominance for Toyota in the green car market as it rides the momentum of its early lead and brand recognition with the Prius. According to Global Insight, hybrids are on track to account for some 5-11 percent of the U.S. market by 2015, up from 2.2 percent in 2007. And a recent Lux Research report estimates hybrids like the Prius could see sales of roughly 3 million units per year by 2020, regardless of whether oil prices spike or remain around $70 per barrel. But due to the high costs of lithium-ion battery technology, the report estimates plug-in hybrids would need oil prices to increase to $200 a barrel, “to achieve a similar level of success, and EV sales will be a factor of ten smaller, even at that price.”

But having seen the advantages first hand of getting out in front with a new vehicle technology, Toyota is putting some skin in the electric vehicle game. Starting in 2011, we’ll see how the hybrid leader fares in the plug-in market.

With gas prices being under $3.00 a gallon people are getting a false sense; that the price of gas will never return to the record levels we had at the beginning of last year. Low gas prices are only temporary. Fuel prices will go back up. There are several factors that will make this happen. The world consumption for energy doubles every 15 years. T. Boone Pickens, the oil man, points out that 70% of our oil now comes from countries that are unfriendly to the United States. There is $600 billion a year leaving this country to pay for oil. As a country, we cannot continue sending that amount of money outside the United States.

Another factor is Global Warming. Many people believe that automobiles are a major contributor to the warming of the planet. Some people believe there should be a carbon tax on internal combustion engine vehicles. Recently, Rohit Makharia, of General Motors, gave a talk at Cornell entitled, “Technology Hurdles in the Fuel Cell and Battery-Powered Vehicle Commercialization Race.” An interesting point given was the relationship of vehicles sales to per capita income. The US has about 800 vehicles per 1,000 persons. While the two fastest growing economies in the world, India and China, have about 100 vehicles per 1,000 persons. One of the charts shown was of world population and vehicle parc. In 1990, the vehicle ownership was 10.5% in 2010 it is projected at 12.7% and in 2030 it is projected to be 17.6% that is a growth rate that is double the previous 20 years. Another interesting point 35% of world energy and >98% of transportation energy comes from petroleum. GM is committed to reinventing all of their automobiles for greater fuel efficiency. One topic that was discussed was Electrically Driven Vehicles, such as the Volt, an Extended –Range Electric Vehicles. A (E-REV) Vehicle is a car that recharges its battery from 120 volt household outlet. What is the difference between today’s Hybrid and E-REV? The present day Hybrid is an Internal Combustion engine with a battery backup as a secondary. An E-Rev uses a battery as a primary energy source. While it uses the internal combustion engine as its secondary power source. The GM battery technology is from LG Chemical, a company that manufactures a nanotechnogical based Lithium Ion battery. An important point to remember is that 78% of the drivers commute 40 miles or less daily. Plug it in any outlet overnight and it will go 40 miles without a drop of fuel. Bob Lutz, the Vice Chairmen, of GM stated the Volt will go 300 to 400 miles on a single fill up.

GM’s latest performance figures for the Volt are 0-60 mph performance time in the 8 to 9 second range. The electric drive unit will deliver 111kW of power that translates to 150 horsepower.

What are the benefits of an electric car? There is little or no tailpipe emission. The costs per mile with electricity charge are less than with gasoline. This means that the fuel economy will be more than 100 miles per gallon of gasoline for most drivers. The big question is charging of the 220 lithium –ion cells housed in the Volt’s “T” shaped battery pack. It will take eight hours to recharge from a 120 volt outlet when fully depleted and as little as three hours if charged from a 240 volt outlet. Based on a projected cost of 10 cents per kWh, the Volt will cost about 80 cents per day to fully change. If you charge the vehicle at night, your cost is only 1/5 of the day rate. That equates to an energy cost of just 2 cents per mile under electric power. I estimate if the price of gasoline were $2.11 a gallon for an internal combustion engine, the cost would be about $.07 per mile. At 100,000 miles, it would cost $2,000 to run an electric car vs. $7,000 for gasoline driven automobiles.

Let’s compare the Chevy Volt to the Reva NXG

An important fact on why an electric car is an excellent alternative to gas in the United States is that the United States has over twice the electricity generating capacity of any other country 980,000 megawatts at the end of 2006.

What is this going to cost? Rumors have the Volt priced in the mid-$30,000 range for a standard model. Electric Drive Incentives in H.R. 1423 credits start at $ 2,500 and range up to $15,000.

GM has committed over 700 people and $ 1 billion dollars to this project. You may ask why we can’t have a Volt today. Why must we wait until late 2010? Here is what needs to be done:

GM needs to verify that the battery life will last for 10 years without replacement.

Lower the production cost of the battery. Rumors have the battery cost about $15,000 per vehicle.

GM needs to verify temperature tolerance power at cold temperatures and life at higher temperatures.

What about batteries full of toxic chemicals and precious metals ending up in a landfill.

Today automobiles use lead acid batteries. 98% of those batteries are recycled in the United States.

Two other questions you may ask are plug-in vehicles dependable? Battery Electric Vehicles are the most dependable vehicles made. Well made production EVs have the potential to last longer than gasoline automobiles. There are few moving parts and less ongoing maintenance. For example; EV have no oil changes. Brake life is significantly extended, since the motor is used to slow the car.

GM and Reva are not the only car companies who are working on electric cars. There are fourteen major automotive companies that have programs and there are 13 small startup companies that have research being done.

In Syracuse Bannon Automotive will be manufacturing the Reva Electric car.

The lithium-ion battery powered NXG model, is priced from $20,000 to $25,000 with a range of 100 miles on a single charge.

The electric car is going to be a game changer.

Looking back at my previous posts so far, there is one major thing I overlooked.

Energy (in)dependence

In my post Anti-Hype: The Electric Car (Part 3b – The Battery), I made a very bad assumption (I didn’t even realize I was making the assumption. Usually I explicitly use the word). The assumption was that ALL of our oil came from outside the US. In fact, though I didn’t state it, I figured most of our oil came from the Middle East.

In reality, the US consumes about 20 million barrels per day (uhhh…wow?), while 13 million of that is imported (source). So, 7 million barrels are produced in the US (reaffirmed here). This means 35% of oil is domestic (a lot less than ideal, but a lot more than I expected). Total US oil source distribution is as follows (pie graph created by me, data from source):

Noteworthy info: Though only 35%, the US is the biggest contributor to its own oil procurement. The Middle East (taken to be Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Algeria, and Kuwait, as defined by source) contributes only 15%. South America provides 13% and Africa provides 10%. OPEC (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, Iraq, Algeria, Ecuador, and Kuwait) provides 34%.

Another interesting factoid is that of all the US oil used, HALF of it goes to motor gasoline (source). I’m going to take that to mean all automobiles. The significance? If we convert all our automobiles to EV (including semi-trucks), then take those previous percentages and cut them in half, that’s the impact a total EV conversion will have. For instance, our dependency from Saudi Arabia would go from 8% to 4%. But, as a whole, we could potentially cut our whole foreign oil dependence of 65% to 32.5%, right? So, would we be getting closer to energy independence?

In my opinion – no, not directly, at least. We will be dependent on lithium, and Bolivia and China seem to be big players in this industry (sorry, I don’t have much information on this yet, perhaps you could share some knowledge?). But I do supposed spreading the proverbial, preferably hard-boiled eggs into multiple proverbial hand-weaved wicker baskets adds to security (fluctuations in one would have less of a harmful impact). Although, if you have a passionate disdain for oil, then I suppose the prior paragraph tastes like chocolate rain.

And here’s another thought. We can’t just switch from gasoline to battery because they don’t have the same functionality. Gasoline is the boom that makes our ICE cars go vroom. The lithium-ion battery is the ICE gas tank waiting to be filled with said boom. In normal terms, the battery is just a holding shell. The appeal of the battery is its ability to recharge, just like a gas tank can be refilled. We STILL have to expend additional natural resources (assuming negligible electricity is coming from renewable energy sources) to get that energy into the battery.

But that’s another story, to be explored later.

Electric cars get all the buzz.

Budding manufacturers draw crowds at auto shows and the electric Nissan Leaf is presently touring the country as if a gold medal winning Olympic athlete.

Every move by darling Tesla Motors is repeated by a fawning media, from its selection of a southern California factory site to the possibility it may sell shares to the public.

This bias was a part of the grants and loan guarantees the Energy Department doled out this summer and fall. Of the total spent on battery technology, $11 billion when to electric vehicle batteries and about $300 million to grid batteries, says Victor Babbitt in a blog post this week.

Designing an advanced battery for the more stable environment of the grid may make more sense

Perhaps the department should think twice.

Cars are difficult places for batteries, with heat, vibration and widely varying performance demands stealing capacity and endurance.

In contrast, grid batteries capturing the electrical output of a solar plant for use later have a relatively stable environment in which to live. They can be more reliable and have a longer lifespan.

“The main issue is cost. Presently, a Sodium Sulfur (NaS) battery by NGK Insulators will run you in the neighborhood of $600K/MWh, and NGK sold several hundred million $ worth in FY2009, and is primed to double production in 2010. Zinc Bromine flow batteries can be purchased today in the neighborhood of $300K/MWh, and several new technologies I’m familiar with are working toward breaking the $100K/MWh barrier, and beyond,” Babbitt says.

Get a grid battery below $100,000 a MWh and the market begins to take off. Beat $70,000 and it reaches into the stratosphere.

Advanced battery development is proving a monster technical hurdle. Perhaps more money should be brought to bear and targeted where it will do the most good.

For Norway-based electric car developer Think, 2009 has not been much of a glory year. But if the next few weeks go according to plan, the company — which restarted production of its compact Think City electric two-seater today — could end the year on a high note.

Today’s announcement that the cars are rolling off the assembly line at a Valmet Automotive plant in Finland comes about a year after Think hit the financial skids and had to halt production at its own Norway plant. Now CEO Richard Canny says Think is on track to deliver some vehicles to European fleet customers “before Christmas.”

The switch to produce the City vehicles at Valmet’s Finland plant instead of Think’s Norway facility came as part of a NOK 250 million (nearly $39 million) financing deal this summer. Valmet and Norwegian government-backed fund Investinor joined the round, and Ener1 (s HEV) (parent company of battery maker and Think supplier EnerDel) became the largest shareholder with a 31 percent stake.

Valmet hopes its role in Think City production will help pave the way to a leadership position in the electric vehicle manufacturing industry. In addition to producing cars like the Porsche Boxster and Cayman, Valmet has been contracted to produce the initial luxury plug-in hybrids from Fisker Automotive. (See our map of where the next generation of green cars will be built.) In August, Valmet said the Think City project — slated for volumes of “several thousands of cars per year” — would employ about 50 people by fall 2009 and more than 100 people in 2010.

Think’s top priority at this point is to deliver vehicles to its existing customers — the standing bank of 2,300 orders, according to a statement from Canny in today’s release. “Our next priority is to build on this order bank,” Canny said, “with continued expansion in Europe and around the world.”

In countries including Denmark, Spain and Norway, Think says it has launched sales of the electric two-seater — primarily to “municipal authorities and utility partners” — with support from government incentives.

For 2010, the company has its eye on the U.S. market, which Canny described earlier this year as “quickly overtaking Europe as an attractive market for EVs and is an ideal location to engineer and build EVs.”

As far as China’s BYD Co. is concerned, Los Angeles has at least five markings of a prime launchpad for electric vehicles: high population density, air pollution problems, a large car market, affluent consumers, and a yen for new technologies. That’s why the battery giant and automaker has named the L.A. area as the region “at the top of the list” of potential lead markets for its electric vehicle and inaugural U.S. offering, the five-seat e6 scheduled to launch next year.

L.A. also presents a top candidate for the U.S. headquarters of BYD, according to a new Wall Street Journal interview with BYD’s Henry Li, senior director of the company’s auto business outside of China. Megabillionaire Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway investment firm owns a 10 percent stake in BYD.

Narrowing down the list of possible lead markets has been at least a 2-year process, according to Li, who told WSJ reporter Norihiko Shirouzu that it has shopped around local governments, comparing attitudes toward green cars and possible support for the nascent plug-in vehicle industry. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger met with BYD President Wang Chuanfu in May, and Edmunds Auto Observer reported last fall that in addition to California, Michigan, Idaho and Portland, Ore., were also in the running for BYD’s North American beachhead.

Los Angeles already serves as the U.S. home base for a slew of Japanese automakers, including Honda, Toyota and Mistubishi, and as the LA Economic Development Agency put it in a report, “The auto industry in Los Angeles involves everything except assembling passenger cars.” Southern California now lays claim to the headquarters of plug-in car startups Fisker Automotive, Coda Automotive and Aptera, as well as AC Propulsion, which first developed the prototypical technology that evolved into the Tesla Roadster — but the region is striving for a starring role in the early days of the plug-in car market.

Tesla Motors, while based in Silicon Valley, will likely assemble its planned Model S in the Long Beach area, taking advantage of facilities once used for the region’s aerospace industry and competition between two local governments. (Downey and Long Beach, both hungry for the jobs and capital Tesla’s assembly plant could bring, are trying to lure the company with incentive packages.) And just last week, L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa unveiled a goal to install or upgrade 500 charging stations throughout the city — and provide $10 million in subsidies for 5,000 residential charge points — by next fall.

After Los Angeles, BYD plans to target customers in San Francisco, and potentially Boston, Chicago, New York and Seattle in later years. Li reiterated plans to potentially tap some celebrities as part of an effort to boost its brand among American consumers, but to focus its initial rollout primarily on public and utility fleets (a strategy shared by many EV makers, since fleets afford a relatively controlled environment with predictable routes and driving schedules as the kinks of real-world EV use get ironed out).

Winning BYD’s business could be a significant coup in the race to establish a hub in the nascent EV market. The company represents one of the highest-profile players in China’s fast-growing plug-in and hybrid vehicle industry, and could pave the way for other Chinese automakers to eventually put down stakes in the region.

According to a forecast from research and consulting firm Frost & Sullivan released earlier this year, the fact that legacy car companies in North America, Europe and Japan haven’t yet mastered the technology is a major factor in recent moves by the Chinese government and automakers such as Chery, Geely, SAIC, Changan and BYD to develop plug-in vehicles — the early stage of the market offers an opportunity for them to leapfrog established players. SoCal could be one of the regions to see ripple effects when they land.

We at CCO would like to welcome you to a special Holiday Burst of News. It’s pretty much the same as any other Burst, except our hearts are filled with the unique form of adrenaline brought on by massive amounts of Thanksgiving food, Black Friday debt, and ChristmuHanuKwanzaa excitement/stress. So you’ll excuse us if we occasionally pause to scream our heads off.

Our first gift this holiday season, however, comes from the good folks at Lamborghini. According to company sources speaking to CarsUK.net, Lambo is summoning up their very own hypercar capable of competing with the Ferrari Enzo and the rest of the highest echelon of automotive performance. Rumor has it the car, which will be based off the Murcielago-replacing Jota, will be named Urus, after the enormous primordial ancestor of modern cattle. (That’s not a joke.)

They really could just cut and paste the Reventon body on the Jota chassis, and I don't think any of us would mind.

While the Jota’s suspected 700+ horsepower 6.0 liter V12 and carbon fiber/aluminum chassis mean it probably won’t be much of a slouch, the Urus should blow it away, thanks to intensive weight-reducing strategies and the introduction of an 800+ horsepower V12. Price hasn’t been announced, but if you’re hoping for less than half a million bucks, you’d be better off praying for JFK’s resurrection.

But while Lamborghini is trying to out-muscle Ferrari’s old hypercars, the folks in Maranello are working on something quite different. The company confirmed last month they are developing an electric-powered all-wheel-drive system for their future vehicles.

That’s right, folks. Not only will the Ferrari of Tomorrow have four-wheel-drive…it’ll be a hybrid.

The 458 probably won't get the hybrid system. We just wanted to look at it again.

Company insiders told AutoCar the system’s first use will be driving the front wheels of the company’s front-engined GTs, effectively giving each axle a separate powertrain – the electric motor up front, and a gasoline-powered V12 powering the rear. But the system is designed to improve handling and acceleration, not fuel economy – so we don’t have to worry about Ferrari drivers getting all smug or anything.

The system will probably first be used in the successor to the 612, which will probably be breaking cover sometime in the next year or two. Don’t expect to see any hybrid Ferraris on the streets until 2014 or so, which still sounds ridiculously futuristic whenever we think about it. When they do come, the hybrid system will probably add a hefty tithe to the Monroney – but if you can afford a four-seat Ferrari, you probably ain’t too worried about it.

Speaking of mansion-priced cars, Rolls-Royce is hoping to take the wraps off an electric version of its Phantom uber-sedan sometime in the next year or so, also according to AutoCar. The Powers That Be at Rolls want to have the car on the road by 2012, in time for the London Olympics – which, entirely coincidentally, happen to be sponsored by Rolls-Royce’s parent company, BMW!

While it appears stoic, the Phantom is silently judging you for being too poor to afford it.

Rolls employees claim they aren’t particularly concerned about the added mass of the lithium-ion batteries needed to hold the car’s juice, as the conventional Phantom already pushes three tons. And while you could certainly argue a 6,000 pound sedan decorated with twenty-seven cows’ worth of leather and more wood than a freshman class trip to the Playboy Mansion is hardly eco-friendly, don’t bother telling the electric Rolls’ owners – because while they can certainly hear you, they just don’t care.

If you’re in the market for a more modest luxury sedan, however, there’s no need to fret. BMW and Audi both have unveiled the newest members of their families in the last couple weeks – BMW brought out its new 5-series, while Audi rolled out the new A8.

First up: the 5, which continues BMW’s recent trend back towards more conventional styling. The “flame surfacing” of the Bangle years admittedly remains, but at least the front end no longer appears surprised and the rear no longer frustrated.

Here in the States, only two models will be available at launch – the 550i, powered by a 407-horsepower version of Bimmer’s blissful turbocharged 4.4-liter V8, and the 535i, which comes with the latest turbocharged, 306-horsepower version of the company’s equally sweet 3.0-liter inline six. The best-selling-yet-least-arousing 528i will arrive a couple months later; however, BMW makes up for it by boosting power to 258 horses and 228 lb-ft of torque – gains of 28 for both figures over the current models. ZF’s new eight-speed automatic comes standard on the 550i, and optional on the six-cylinder models.

After debating it over several rounds of drinks at the local bar, we here at CCO ultimately came down in favor of the new 5er’s looks. (Also, we unanimously agreed that “Livin’ On A Prayer” is, like, the greatest song in human history.) While it seems almost a tad forgettable from certain angles (at least in pictures), it certainly bears a strong resemblance to the 3- and 7-series – and given that that was presumably the idea, it’s safe to call this one a success.

However, we aren’t particularly fond of the look of Audi’s new A8.  From the front, the car seems oddly reminiscent of the current Hyundai Sonata, and the LED running lights – which lend the A4/A5 family a futuristic strength, like the glowing eyes of Iron Man – angle down in just the wrong place, giving the A8 a strange resemblance to Droopy Dog. Audi is trumpeting the new A8 as the front line of its new designed theme, dubbed “Vorsprung durch Technik;” while our German is a little rusty, we can only assume said phrase translates to, “Let’s just make the A4 bigger and go pound a beer.”

"I always come to mope in front of the Brooklyn Bridge, because I'm artsy."

Thankfully, though, the interior looks like all you’d expect and more from Audi’s most luxurious model. The design is beautiful, and while we’ve heard some mixed opinions on the Interwebs about the A8’s handlebar shifter, we rather like it. And considering that shifter connects to the same eight-speed automatic as in the 5-series – and that the transmission connects all four wheels to a 372-horsepower 4.2 liter V8 – the A8 ought to be a pretty sweet drive for such a large car.

Of course, if you’re not thrilled with the A8’s styling and are willing to sacrifice a bit of space for it, Audi will be more than willing to take a deposit on their upcoming A7 four-door-coupe. According to AutoCar, the long-rumored A6-based pseudo-coupe will be unveiled at the Moscow Auto Show in August 2010.

When the A7 hits the U.S. streets sometime in late 2010 or early 2011 to engage the Mercedes-Benz CLS and BMW X6 in a Teutonic battle of “Bizarro-world coupes,” expect it to come equipped with similar engines to the A6 – naturally aspirated and supercharged V-6s, and if Audi’s feeling generous and gas is still cheap, the 372-hp V8 from the A8. According to Audi design director Stefan Sielaff, there will even be an S7 – likely featuring a turbo/supercharged V8 – for those of you who like testing the patience of law enforcement.

This is Audi's Sportback Concept. Expect the A7 to look like this, except with more Orange Country trophy wives behind the wheel.

Rumor has it U.S. prices should start somewhere around $46,000, but since the A6 starts at $45,200, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the A7 on the painful side of $50K when it hits our shores. Mercedes and BMW both charge significantly more for their faux coupes than the sedans/SUVs they’re based on, so Audi will probably follow the same logic – even if AutoCar claims there will only be a “small price premium.”

But while Audi is chopping up the higher end of the luxury car market into ever-smaller slices, BMW wants to slot yet another model into its rapidly burgeoning M line. According to AutoCar (who seem to have more anonymous sources than Seymour Hersh), someone in BMW’s high-performance division claims creating a more affordable model to slot in under the M3 is a top priority.

Details are few and far between at this point, but since the car would be based on the next-gen 1-series, there’s plenty of time for info to leak out. However, we do know two things: the car will (hopefully) be priced in the mid-$40K range, and BMW may dust off the old M1 badge for it. We’ve got our fingers crossed for a 365+ horsepower version of the company’s turbo I6 under the hood…

Of course, if Audi and BMW are hard at work crafting fun new toys for us to play with, the good folks at Mercedes-Benz can’t be far behind. In this case, rumor has it the company is working on whipping up a smaller sports car based on the new SLS.

At least from this angle, we don't have to look at its ass.

According to PistonHeads, the new model would be designed to compete against the Porsche 911. The ‘Heads claim the follow-up to the SLS – can we call it the SaLT? – will use a V8 of somewhere between 5.8 and 6.2 liters, complete with cylinder cut-off. Given that AMG spent a shit-ton of cash developing its current 6.2 liter engine and said engine has proven suitable in everything from C-class compacts to R-class megawagons, it’s probably safe to assume the Salt will just use a revised version of that engine. Expect to see the finished product in about five years.

Finally, we have another piece of tragic supercar news to round out this update. After a year of service, the Italian State Police’s Lamborghini Gallardo LP560-4 was totaled a couple weeks ago near the northern city of Cremona. Thankfully, neither of the officers inside were injured when the Lambo swerved to avoid a car and slammed into a group of parked vehicles.

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!

(Photo courtesy autoblog.it)

Before the accident, the Gallardo was primarily used to provide rapid response to accidents and for high-speed organ transport – because while a helicopter might be faster, the doctors wouldn’t be able to say, “They’re driving your new heart here in a Lamborghini.” No word yet on whether Lamborghini will replace the vehicle, but here’s hoping they will. In fact, here’s hoping automakers here in the States decide to follow suit and donate some choice vehicles to our local police forces. How ’bout a couple Corvette ZR1s for the Michigan State Troopers?

The big story today seems to be a leaked document that was going to be passed as the new climate change treaty. The document was alleged to have been put together by a few rich nation including host country Denmark and seems to reduce the emission cut obligations of the rich nations. It also hands power for future negotiation to the rich countries (ABC News Australia reported). Poor countries are threatening to walk out.

The noise generated by pro and anti Climate change advocate is a bit tiring. As far as I am concern, oil are controlled by few Texan and Middle Eastern Royalty cartel artificially making it expensive. In some countries, price fixing is illegal. Then why is oil cartel tolerated? It is also a pollutant. No question about it. Not even taking into account the global warming equation, it’s a no brainer that we should move toward renewable energy. Hong Kong already have electric car. And China are actively investing in infrastructure and research to help promote electric car (China’s BYD cheap electric car beat GM, Nissan and Toyota -CNN). Unfortunately the one spearheading this new technology is not the usual developed countries but developing country like China. It is not a question of science, the facts and technology is there, it is a question of commitment by the rich countries. Unfortunately, a lot of the  rich countries have stake in oil and would keep on dragging their feet as long as they can. The wave of change is coming, either we get on board or get left behind.