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But the building trade is desolate brings the negative effect to steel trade, it is predicted, steel production and domestic demand will be reduced by 1.8% and 2.3% respectively. Because textile industry is assaulted by my low price products, output and domestic demand will be reduced. The semi-conductive trade influences because of being glided by the global price, the growth trend is difficult to extend. The car trade is difficult to influence to resume in an all-round way high oil price, Han YuanSheng value,etc..

In the near future, the electronics and information industries will adjust and plan the specification to release formally. Northeastern propose one that is in state policies is under being energetical to promote, the intersection of China and the overall staging electronic industry after the security analysis, investors can pay close attention to the relevant listed company.

The electronics and information industries adjust and plan the specification and propose, in the following three years, the electronics and information industries should launch around nine key fields such as the computer, electronic devices and components. The government will issue the supplementary measure from seven respects, in order to try to guarantee the electronics and information industries develop steadily in three years, plan in three years the electronics and information industries are not lower than 0.7 percentage points to the contribution of the increase in GDP.

Staging of the integrated circuit. Support the leading enterprise to transform the staging, build up a production line of IC chip with scale merit and advanced engineering level as soon as possible, support key complete machine enterprise and chip to restructure, further promote engineering level and operational capacities. Cooperate with the great project of science and technology, strengthen the key chip design in a more cost-effective manner, expand the application of products. Science and technology, open rich microelectric, Shanghai Beiling, person are blue and little, etc on day that the relevant listed company has long electric science and technology, China.

The government actively promotes the finance (ATM, POS machine,etc.) with independent intellectual property right , application of Chinese market which employs the system equipment such as the property tax, will benefit electronic enterprise of China’s finance, the associated listed company has broadcasting and TV to transport openly and resisting silver share, card open electron, permanent treasure share, east letter and equal.

Accelerate the analogue TV and carry out the transition to the digital television, it is national wired, is both as the networking of supplemental digitized broadcasting television on the ground, satellite to promote, abundant digital program resources, promote the high definition program to broadcast, promote the digital television to popularize, drive the upgrading of digital apparatus of broadcasting studio, launching facilities, satellite receiving apparatus, accelerate the digitized process of the film, realize the whole staging of the industry chain of seeing and hearing. Relevant listed company have with the intersection of continent and electron, the intersection of song and the intersection of China and wired, the intersection of CITIC and Guoan,etc..

The above of mainly concentrating on high generation (6 generations that panel display makes the transition) Liquid crystal faceplate production line construction of jumbo size, new display technology (PDP, OLED,etc.) Research and development, raw material (liquid crystal glass substrate, colour filter, electroconductive glass,etc.) Wait for the completion of the relevant industry chain. There are treasure hi-tech of eastern, deep Mantidis, fields lying fallow in rotation of Beijing, rainbow share,etc. in the relevant listed company.

AUDUSD>>The Aussie dollar found some support on Wednesday with flood fears having limited effect on the currency. Factored in by many traders, the AUDUSD rose to 0.9952 with a rebound in commodity prices helping the beleaguered pair. Important PPI and Inflation data released later in the week in the US could spur heightened volatility and movements in the greenback. Economists have factored in a rise in core CPI, due to a revision in economic growth for the quarter.

EURUSD>>Renewed hopes in the euro zone, continued to drive the greenback lower against the Euro during the session. Portugal completed a bond auction on Wednesday with the country highlighting a contraction in borrowing costs. This surprised the market and traders moved into risk pairs to gain exposure to potential growth and yield in the region. Economists were optimistic about suggestions of an emergency fund for countries requiring economic bailouts. In light of recent events, the move would restrict potential debt contagion effects and boost consumer sentiment. The EURUSD traded at 1.33.

USDCHF>>The greenback weakened against the swiss franc in light of the events in Europe during the trade day. Recent concerns over Portuguese debt and heightened volatility in the credit markets, led many traders to consider hedging their Euro exposure with the safety of the Swiss Franc. The USDCHF was trading at 0.9661 intraday.

GBPUSD>>Disappointing UK trade figures temporarily pushed sterling lower during the lunch time session on Wednesday. Highlighting a significant widening in the deficit for the period, with 8.7 billion recorded, traders were cautious on the outlook of UK growth, especially leading up to key US economic data released tomorrow. A successful bond auction in Portugal and renewed hopes that the debt worries may dissipate, sent the pound higher against the US dollar. The GBPUSD was at 1.5766.

USDCAD>>The Canadian dollar strengthened during the session with the currency pair trading at 0.9859. Rebounding commodity prices and a distinct surge in risk appetite helped the CAD. US CPI and PPI figures will however be of key importance to traders over the next few days.

The general view of electronic market of first quarter of 2010:

Because was that the swift and violent increment of the mobile phone of mountain fastness caused the first wave in short supplily first last first half of the year, concentrate on passive device and memorizer, the second half year begin, some international semi-conductive known enterprises reducing the productivity from 2008 to 2009 begin the material shortage by turns, influence nearly the whole trade customer’s production planning seriously. It is expected, take place whom great deflection cause from top to bottom in short supply, produce, chase the goods playing paying too, thus lead to the fact the market price of the electronic devices and components presents No. one to rise, this results from lagging behind in the reason of turn of the market by the production cycle of electronic devices and components.

In short supply to become the intersection of electronic devices and components and key word of market in first quarter in this year, major cause that rise in price in short supply to lead to the fact. But there are some old products, the price keeps relatively stable, with the purchase in enormous quantities, the price will present the elasticity to reduce. So, since last Christmas Day, the foreign order was lower than expectancy, the growth of market of electron trade slowed down to some extent, the whole price tendency is relatively gentle, basically in keeping state in the first quarter of this year.

The electronic market for first quarter does well, this is a thing not including expecting. On one hand, trade development has seasonal fluctuation, it is the period of slack sales of an electronic industry in the first quarter, the market enters and stores stage; In addition on one hand, the economic development environment though the trend of recovering is clear, that the electron trade rebounds efforts should be relatively a bit weaker, the rise trend has certain hysteresis effects. But the not light abnormal phenomenon in slack period appears in the actual conditions of the market. Monitor the information feedback according to the first-hand market, the fluctuating range of the price index is minor in the first quarter of this year, fluctuate in a point on average, the anaphase general trend of market development prones to rising. As the new demand is being produced constantly, new hot products on the market are emerging constantly, the new product of electron trade, the upgrading products are being pushed into the market constantly, the corresponding upward pressure of price is relatively large. Meanwhile, the severe situation exists and competes with materialzation in the electronic industry, the price war is a daily means to seize market share, face the competition that the whole market encourages day by day, the upstream material rises in price, the pressure that cause the products and face rising in price. And some products held in store of before, face the destiny substituted by the new product, upgrading products, so first quarter whole microlitre under tendency steady price, and anaphase market raise up high pressure.

Basic situation that China’s strong north electronic product aggregate index number operates of the first quarter

Declivate ” W ” appears in China’s strong north price index tendency in the first quarter Tendency ( See the picture below 1 in detailed information: Aggregate index number tendency of the electronic product cost of first quarter of 2010) ,The chain rate of the exponential value drops nearly 3 points, the dropping speed of the chain rate is not at all surprising in such quarter, and compared with miserable scene in the first quarter of 2009, should be good a lot. The aggregate index number rises in nearly 2 points compared with the same period of last year in the first quarter, explaining and rejecting the seasonal factor influences, the price of electron trade presents the posture of rising.

Its four major plate indexes of aggregate index number, besides presenting coming down greatly in electronic devices and components price index, exponential value chain rates of industry price of mobile phone, number and IT are all positive values. Because this three major plate index chain rates are relatively minor in ascensional range, it is not enough to influence efforts as to the overall exponential tendency. And is fallen by the electronic devices and components weight index and tied down, China is strong to show the tendency of gliding overallly at the electronic market price of the north in the first quarter. Among them the electronic devices and components price index, under it subdivide numerously in the index, rise and fall by mistake, the major situation drops. Amplifier and memorizer whether price drop two obvious loud to subdivide the index most among them, DSP and MCU are classification indexes of the representatives with upward price. Consumption electronic product, first quarter is in busy season consuming, with the seasonal fluctuation of the demand, the gradual improvement of the economic situation, the market does well. Mobile phone products, no matter Chinese brand or foreign brand, it is good to behave in whole quarter, the price index increases on about 3 points on average; Digital product market, obvious growth appears in the sales volume, the price index presents the posture of increasing progressively month by month; IT market is before the Spring Festival, the market manifestation is good particularly, the price index rose to the highest peak of this quarter.

Fig. 1: Aggregate index number tendency of the electronic product cost in the first quarter of 2010 The source of the data: China’s strong north index

One of four major composition indexes: Electronic devices and components

Whether no matter industry’s position or industry’s scale in the electronic devices and components industry are in the whole electronic messaging manufacturing industry, it is very important in the fields of electronics and information industries. One is the tradition slack period of electron trade in the first half of the year, but the scene in busy season in great demand appears in the first quarter, the strong north market of China present the growth of two figures in turnover and first quarter compared with last year, the not light phenomenon in slack period appears in every emporium turnover of strong north electron in China, it is after going through the chain rate decline for four months in succession since last November, since March, the camp has accepted the chain rate fast and rebounded. Analyze that is thought, the electronic devices and components are active gradually, it will run through for the whole year continuously that the electron trade is prosperous. Meanwhile,it go to the countryside electrical home appliances, automobile sale,etc. too expected to spur the consumption of electron, after this gives fast growth pole strong sneaking and entering intelligent era of a trade to electronic devices and components, numerous participants in the market and come from different trade backgrounds, the competition situation is more complicated, the development route of the mobile phone manufacturer of different capability will be different to some extent. Line two manufacturer breaks the traditional image of the advanced high price of the intellectual mobile phone, adopt brand and price strategy of the high cost performance in order to cut the market rapidly. The Net surfing demand of the young colony of China is relatively big, it is the primary consuming groups of the intellectual mobile phone, but because financial burden ability is relatively weak, there is intellectual more popular mobile phone of remarkable cost performance.

The apple makes iPhone with all effort, and rely on the high-efficient integration industry chain of appeal of iPhone, and integral the intersection of industry and unique service that chain can offer support the intersection of star and the intersection of mobile phone and status of iPhone imitate rival while being difficult at the same time conversely. From the information feedback of market that is monitored in the first quarter, iPhone brand mobile phone price index fluctuation rise appears in the first quarter, the market quantity sold is better, there is type of several situations of selling well under its star’s mobile phone, have gained users to have a partiality for.

Third of four major composition indexes: Digital products

In first quarter, the digital products newspaper point 90.41 of price index, the chain rate goes up by 0.55 percentage points, have gone up by 3.17 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The chain rate, with keeping identical upward trend at the same time compared with the same period of last more year, prove the digital products market comsupton is active, reject the seasonal influence factor, the market obviously gets warm again after a cold spell steadily. Its subdivide index while being numerous, tendency very much the same, rise in the steady trend while being overall. The index digital camera of the weight, the gratifying ascending tendency appears in the first quarter, false on the Spring Festival on its market under driving, have kept the stable situation. Promoted information at a reduced price very much recently, because the new product went on the market on the market of impact, old product make a reduction too among reason, digital the intersection of market and any time products at being frank to have countercurrent flow. In the first quarter of this year, some products keep the situation of rising in price too, thus spur the whole index ascendant trend of the digital camera. Represented the products are Canon 500D prices of nearly 4K at present, but did not lower rising instead recently, the price before comparing is still a little bit higher. Attend to each and every aspect of a matter on behalf of Canon EOS 5DMark II function new master of the products, the performance index is controlled intrepidly and actually sanely and reliably. Though this machine presented the lowest history not long ago, it was only transient too, the recent price slightly rebounds too.

Fig. 4: Digital products price index tendency in the first quarter of 2010 The source of the data: China’s strong north index

Weight index Digital Video, consume one of the products quite beneath mention the electronic market at present. One that is with market of demand is expanded constantly, the market is larger and larger, the new product is actually rare this year, but old product enormous to make a reduction or attract favor of consumer very much, whether the sales amount of the market compares to say or have good achievement last year in the first quarter.

Fourth of four major composition indexes: IT products

IT products, the newspaper point 90.77 of index of the first quarter, the chain rate goes up by 0.8 percentage points, go up by 3.45 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Consumption electronic product, IT, number and mobile phone,etc., the situation keeping the chain rate upward at the same time in the first quarter, prove the market recovers clearly. There are surprising in achievement on first quarter such as and that Intel,Intel CEO Europe Germanies global would rather (Paul S. Otellini) Show very confidently, the IT industry is close to totally recovering. Its four major indexes of subdividing the classification, computer complete machine products, ancillary equipment, network equipment and market of computer fittings, rise in the first quarter and fall by mistake. The ancillary equipment price index has the most obvious rising trend, fluctuating range is relatively large, shaking rises at the price, for ITs whole products current price on market Gwen and at if you can’t rise, arrive by function of drawing high; And computer complete machine products and computer fittings market price glide, the network equipment even appears and visits under the little range in the first quarter.

Fig. 5: IT products price index tendency in the first quarter of 2010 The source of the data: China’s strong north index

The price tendency is predicted in the second quarter:

According to the running situation of the electron trade of first quarter, can predict the anaphase market mainly possesses the characteristics of tendency of the following aspects:

1. With the expansion of the semi-conductive productivity, the overall phenomenon in short supply will be relieved, but the specific development field at a high speed will have a fluctuation, in short supply it will last some time. Economy will continue resuming in 2010 at the same time, the trade focus happens frequently, overall market share will be expanded progressively.

2. The particularity produced because of IC, the increase or reduction of the productivity but can’t be in pace with it on the quantity. Demand of market piece step up reduced course, productivity of IC increase or it reduces to be person who jump. Often increase at double or reduce greatly. Accumulate it as to sure, such periodic unevenness between supply and demand breaks out, either in short supply or the supply exceeds the demand.

3. Under the function of the economic law, the productivity of the products will thereupon do corresponding increase or reduced adjustment. Every large relevant manufacturer, adopt and predict that order ahead of time, and prepare against more many ways held in store in coordination with the VIP customer, and expand the irrigation ditch of source of goods of the same brand in different areas of the whole world and make sure where there is precaution, there is no danger, it is the ideal tactics.

4. We predict LED, car electron relevant electronic devices and components in 2010, and the passive device will be continuously in short supply.

5. Now, the ice and snow covered on the head of electronic industry is melting, some markets such as new energy, LED, Internet of things, e-book, China 3G communication,etc. have already grown up strong and sturdy under the warm sunshine even more.

6. The global electronic market is recovering day by day. The ones that have shown to future market in every large market survey mechanism capital are had an optimistic view of, they estimate the amount of the increase of market in 2010 of electronic industry may be up to 10%. In here, China will play a key role, will estimate and will be got warm again after a cold spell by the export market and the policy of expanding domestic demand of government will be pulled continuously, the electronic industry’s market of China will be expected to get growth of two figures in 2010.

However, during some time of future, except some new technology and market of application, electronic development of industry to make practicality and low price main fact, develop new developing market and it finishes cost performance to be 2010 electronic the intersection of industry and focal point of development. What this trend reflected in China’s hottest electronic devices and components, material and apparatus exhibition ELEXCON2010 overall arrangement is very obvious.

Prosperous high position run and policy stimulate under the two major factor function in trade, the electronic plate achieves the high possibility of making new advances bigger in 2 quarters.

John Richmond

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