Morcambe F.C. v. Accrington Stanley F.C. (Saturday)

With most European leagues on their Winter Break, we had to reach all the way down to League Two in order to find our first proper derby, the Lancashire Derby. The Shrimps of Morecambe need a win- they are currently in seventh place and in the promotion playoffs. They’ve won four of their last five matches (the other was a draw), so they are looking good for a win. Accrington are a few places further back in eleventh, but a win for them and they’ll at least be within shouting distance of the promotion playoffs and a chance to move into League One for the first time in their history. Fun Fact: One of Morcambe’s players is a midfielder from Scotland. His name? Emmanuel Ugochukwu Ezenwa Panther. He scores 60% of the time, every time.

West Ham United F.C. v. Portsmouth F.C. (Saturday)

How bad are things for both of these teams? There’s a pretty good chance that neither team will move out of the relegation zone even if they win. They might not even catch 18^th place Bolton- who, in any case, have two games in hand over both Pompey and the Hammers. Of the two teams, it’s actually Portsmouth who are playing the better football as of late- ask Rafa Benitez… West Ham’s all-time record signing was made last January. His name is Savio Nsereko, and he’s a Ugandan international. He played in ten matches before being sold to Fiorentina. Oops. Fun Fact: I have a commemorative t-shirt from Portsmouth’s 2008 F.A. Cup win. Fun Fact 2: West Ham coach Gianfranco Zola’s hopping-backheel-volley against Norwich is a good a goal as you will ever see.

Ross County F.C. v. Raith Rovers F.C. (Saturday)

The Staggies are all alone in second place and a win will keep them there no matter what happens in any other First Division matches this weekend. A win is especially important because due to their match being snowed-out last weekend, third place Queen of the South (who only trail County by a point) now have a game in hand. Raith, currently in seventh place, are probably the lowest placed team that doesn’t have to worry about relegation this season as they are eight points clear of Greenock Morton (last place above the relegation zone) and eleven points ahead of Ayr United who are currently in the relegation playoff spot. I won’t even bother you with how far ahead they are of last place and woeful Airdrie United. Fun Fact: The County club shop will be closed on Christmas Day.

Southend United F.C. v. Colchester United F.C. (Saturday)

League One football, anyone? That’s right, it’s the Essex Derby. The honors are quite even in this rivalry (Southend has done a bit better)- it’s been one of the more competitive derbies in England since it began in 1950. Colchester probably aren’t going to catch Charlton or Leeds for one of the automatic playoff spots, but a win would really solidify their hold on one of the league’s four playoff promotion spots. Southend, well, barring a collapse in the second half of the season, they’re going to be in League One again next year- although they have lost four of their last five matches, so… Fun Fact: Colchester United’s Kemal Izzet is the younger brother of former Leicester City standout and London-born Turkish international Muzzy Izzet.

Hibernian F.C. v. Rangers F.C. (Sunday)

Once again, the inclusion of a member of the Old Firm in the Weekend Preview can only mean bad news- for the Old Firm…I hope. Here’s the situation: Hibernian trail second-place Celtic by one point and first place Rangers by five points. So, should the Hibees beat Rangers and Celtic lose to Hamilton (What!? It could happen!), Hibs could leapfrog Celtic for second place and trail Rangers by only two points. Got it? Good. Oh, and it looks like one Damarcus Lamont Beasley is back to not just playing, but scoring goals for Rangers- he has two in his last two matches. Fun Fact: Hibernians roster currently includes former Ross County midfielder John Rankin. Fun Fact 2: John Rankin was born in Bellshill. A certain ATD writer’s grandmother was born there too!

Arsenal F.C. v. Aston Villa F.C. (Sunday)

If you haven’t been paying attention, this match has been growing in importance over the past few weeks. The Gunners have a game in hand over Villa, but the teams are tied on points and Villa have not only been earning points more consistently as of late, but, in this writer’s opinion, they’ve looked better doing it. Both teams will have the added motivation of knowing that if Manchester United does anything but win this weekend, they could move past them into second place. Fun Fact: Gabby Agbonlahor could have chosen to play for Scotland. I’m not sure that’s a “fact” per se, it might just be bitterness on my part. Fun Fact 2: If I were Fabio Capello my team sheet would start with Agbonlahor and Milner, and I’d hire an assistand just to remind me not to waste another cap on Emile Heskey.

There are a lot of different ways you can try to predict the future success (or lack thereof) of your team. You could, for example, look at past performance: how well did they do last year? Did they lose anybody important? No? Well, then things should work out their way again, right? Yeah, ask Liverpool about how that works out (and explain it to the version of me that wrote their preseason preview).

No, when it comes to gauging future success, there’s only one method to go by: the wage bill. According to “Soccernomics”, the wage market efficiency is at 89%; that means that, by and large, wage prices are reflecting a really big chunk of the information available to investors (or, in this case, clubs). Translation into plain English: if you’re getting paid a metric assload of money, there’s a fairly good likelihood that you’re worth that amount of money.

For our purposes today, that means that there’s also a correlation between a team’s wage bill and their eventual league position. It’s pretty direct, too; if you’re paying out the most in wages, you should be at the top of the league. If you’re in twentieth place, than you should be in last. There’s not a lot of wiggle room here; it’s supposed to be a pretty accurate predictor.

After the jump, then, let’s look at the teams in the Premier League, 1-20, to see who’s not pulling their weight and who’s punching above it.

A quick note on the information I’ve compiled: it’s about as accurate as I can get it to be. Premier League clubs need to file their accounts with the league at the end of May. Back in June, The Guardian published all the accounts (link), omitting Liverpool (who filed their accounts late) and the three newly promoted sides (Birmingham, Burnley, and Wolves). For those clubs I found data on the Liverpool Echo (link), which was updated in October. I also used the Echo’s information for Manchester City, as last year’s accounts don’t reflect the influx in spending they had over the summer. For Portsmouth, who have sold several players over the summer, I referred to a story in the Telegraph (link). The data’s admittedly not perfect, but it’s pretty damn close. I also would exercise caution using West Ham’s numbers; while the actual wage bill might be correct, they’ve lost two major players to injury this season that they’re probably not paying anymore (and aren’t there to help out, regardless).

So without further adieu, here’re the clubs ranked by wage spending, along with their current league position.

Team	Wage Bill	Position
Chelsea	£149,000,000	1
Man Utd	£121,000,000	2
Man City	£105,000,000	6
Arsenal	£101,300,000	3
Liverpool	£90,430,000	8
Tottenham	£52,900,000	5
Aston Villa	£50,400,000	4
Everton	£44,500,000	15
West Ham Utd	£44,200,000	19
Blackburn	£39,700,000	13
Fulham	£39,300,000	9
Bolton	£39,000,000	18
Wigan Athletic	£38,400,000	16
Sunderland	£37,100,000	10
Portsmouth	£37,000,000	20
Birmingham	£26,600,000	7
Wolves	£13,860,000	12
Stoke City	£11,900,000	11
Burnley	£9,760,000	14
Hull City	£6,900,000	17

First thing’s first: go Birmingham. With half the year done, Birmingham have managed to slot themselves into seventh place. That’s right between Manchester City (6th) and Liverpool (8th), both of whom are in the top five highest wage bills in the Premier League. That’s pretty fantastic for a team that was tipped for relegation, it’s even better.

It’s pretty clear that, at the top, Chelsea and Manchester United are following the metric: Chelsea outspends everyone and their league position reflects that, while Manchester United outspent everyone but Chelsea…with the league position to go along with that.

At the bottom, however, it’s a little more murky. Hull City, the cheapest team in the league, is actually punching above their weight. When you consider that a good chunk of their cash is being devoted to Jimmy Bullard, who’s been on and off all season, Hull’s doing a fantastic job just treading water. Villa’s doing a nice job of playing above their potential, while Liverpool and Manchester City are playing below their wage positions.

Speaking of Manchester City. A lot was made about Mark Hughes being fired unjustly, but the fact of the matter is this: per point, only Chelsea is paying more per league point than Manchester City. According to the wages that club is spending, they should be a hell of a lot higher than they are; instead, they’re clawing around in sixth place only because other teams around them are continuing to drop points. And unlike at Liverpool, where there’s a cash crunch and an inability to strengthen the squad, Manchester City’s budget has doubled since last season; that should have seen a dramatic rise in their league position.

Which brings us to causation. Manchester City can’t simply pay players more and hope to rise up the table; it doesn’t work that way. The wage bill doesn’t cause anything, it’s just an indicator. One of the factors it depends on is that a team doesn’t overpay for players; that would cause a market inefficiency, which in turn would invalidate the entire thing. So, yes, Manchester City’s spending the cash; looking at their squad, though, it’s possible they spent it on the wrong players.

See, an interesting counter to the relative efficiency of the wage market is that there’s a pretty big inefficiency on the transfer market. Simply spending £250,000,000 on player transfers does not, in fact, mean anything. For instance, I’m sure that Manchester City could buy any player in MLS for £50 million; that doesn’t mean, however, that that player is worth that money. If Mark Hughes was overseeing the purchase the seriously iffy players Man City purchased this summer (Roque Santa Cruz, Carlos Tevez, Joleon Lescott, and Gareth Barry have all underperformed this season), than it’s fair to say that he should be held accountable for that.

Santa is gearing up his sleigh, feeding the reindeer their special food, and double-checking that all of the presents to be delivered overnight tomorrow are wrapped and ready to go.  He shared his list for the Premier League with me, and said I could share it with you.

Chelsea:  They had asked for some help while some of their key players are off to the African Cup of Nations.  Santa tells me that David Villa will be arriving just slightly after Christmas to assist the Blues throughout January and to continue their campaign to regain the title.  They also asked for no injuries to the players heading to Africa, and Santa said he’d do his best.

Liverpool: Santa was shocked to hear how sad everyone is in the city of Liverpool right now, on both the Red and the Blue side.  The Red side has asked for some more goal-scoring ability and someone with some ability to take charge of a match so that no more shenanigans take place.  Sadly, without more cash, Santa says the best he might be able to do is Emile Heskey and even then, Heskey is a striker who doesn’t score at a great rate.  What this team could really use in it’s stocking is some good luck and some stability.

Aston Villa: Santa knows this one is absolutely really simple.  Continued good health, good luck and good performances.  It’s hard to argue with what they’ve accomplished so far on their budget and assuming he doesn’t pluck Heskey for Liverpool, they should hopefully maintain their depth and talent this season.

Tottenham Hotspur: Santa is having a tough time deciphering this side’s wish list.  On the one hand, they have an out-of-form captain who went behind the manager’s back to have a holiday party, and an ambivalent Russian striker who either doesn’t work hard enough or is misunderstood by the manager.  On the other hand, they have two world-class England internationals who are in fine form up front at the moment, and the fastest midfielder in the Premier League who is currently wreaking havoc.  The biggest need here is defense, and Santa knows they want more, but can’t understand why the wish list once again reads “midfielders”.

Manchester City: They have all the money they need, but what Santa has been asked to deliver is a reputation that will allow them to be a “destination club”.  That and a top 4 finish.  Santa will have a tough time fulfilling both wishes.  I would expect Santa will have several new additions to the side in his large bag, but they won’t be arriving until January and will have to get into a squad that’s already deep and talented but a bit directionless.  He also needs to bring Roberto Mancini some luck and peaceful waters.  It’s a long wish list for this side.

Manchester United: Santa just needs to bring a better trainer’s table to Old Trafford.  They’ve had so many injuries that it’s clear the old one is malfunctioning somehow.

Fulham: Santa needs to bring this side continued stability and the ability to stay below the radar.  They could use some re-enforcements but it remains to be seen if their shopping list is reasonable or not.  Continued success and a chance at Europe are their main wishes and Santa feels both requests are extremely reasonable given their rise up the table thus far.

Portsmouth: A huge sack of cash.  The biggest sack of cash available.  Santa is working hard, but this club’s biggest need may not be available by the time Santa makes his visit.

Arsenal: Yet another side that has the word “striker” on their wish list.  The severe injury to Robin van Persie has left the Gunners a bit punchless, and thus, Wenger is under pressure to spend some January cash.  Santa doesn’t need to bring them cash, he needs to bring them the right player that will fit in and not get hurt as well.  Oh, and he needs to wrap Theo Walcott in bubble wrap every night before he goes to sleep.

Birmingham City: Santa has a tricky one here.  They have cash to spend but Santa has to bring them the RIGHT players.  This side has really done well since returning to the Premier League, they have good facilities and a good manager.  They have cash to spend but it’s very easy to spend it incorrectly and thus, end up in trouble.  Santa needs to bring this side good sense and more good luck.  Not an easy thing to stuff in a sack but that’s what they most desperately need.

Tell us in comments what you think Santa needs to bring these sides or one that I didn’t mention here.  Cheers.

Recently, Messi was crowned the World Player of the Year. Given the year Barcelona have had and the Argentinean’s role in the team, it is well and truly deserved. This award though, made me take a look at the recent history of WPoY.

Here are some interesting facts,

2009 Winner – Messi

Age at the time of winning — 22

Club  at the time of winning — Barcelona

Years at Club before winning WPoY –  9

Transfer fee – Peanuts, I guess.

2008 Winner – Ronaldo

Age at the time of winning – 23

Club at the time of winning – Manchester United

Years at Club before winning WPoY  — 5

Transfer fee – Just over 12 Million Pounds

2007 Winner – Kaka

Age at the time of winning – 25

Club at the time of winning – Milan

Years at Club before winning WPoY – 4

Transfer fee – Less than 9 million Euros.

These look like young players who were signed for a moderate fee and given the time to develop into world class players. Of course, prior to these three, Cannavaro was an exception of sorts, and the likes of Ronaldinho, Zidane, Figo and Ronaldo fall into the Galactico category. Some might argue that Ronaldinho was somewhere in between the young and talented and the proven stars when he was signed by Barca.

Cesc, obviously, falls in the same bracket as the recent winners. Given his present goal scoring form and his unlimited lifetime supply of assists, he can, if he stays fit, be right up there for the award next year. We also know that individual awards and trophies normally go hand in hand. The last time we won something was when Henry came second in the race.

Of course, one player does not change the fortunes of a club. But we can certainly say Fabregas has a good supporting cast in players like Arshavin, Nasri, RvP(for the contribution he has made this season), Song, Vermaelen and others.

I think a fit Fabregas can create history this season. Some merit to the thought?

The Everton F.C. crest.

The latest buzz in international football (soccer) news. The American soccer superstar Landon Donovan is headed to Europe (again) this winter during the Major League Soccer offseason. No…it’s not the Bundasliga this time, like he did last year and in 2004 and 1999. He’s going to the English Premier League—the top gun league of Europe—and possibly the planet.

As every soccer news source such as Stephen Goff for Soccer Insider (The Washington Post), Ives Galarcep for Soccer By Ives (ESPN Soccer) and many other soccer columnists/journalists have been reporting, it’s true. Donovan will be joining Everton this January and through mid-March 2010. He will come back in time to join the Los Angeles Galaxy before the start of the 2010 MLS season. That game, their season opener, will be played at the Home Depot Center on March 27 against the New England Revolution.

Tim Howard, a teammate for Landon Donovan on the national team is the goalkeeper for Everton, and has been since 2004.

A team like Everton can use him. This team, which made to the FA Cup final last year is struggling in the EPL this year. Right now, they’re ranked 15th in the league, and are just two spots ahead of relegation zone. Did I mention that they have no won a game since their 2-1 win over West Ham? That was on November 7. Almost two months with no victory.

Still, Everton—surprisingly—manages to hold a bit of a buffer with Hull City and Wigan inbetween, but that’s nothing really. The club is only two points ahead of West Ham United. (Everton has 18, West Ham has 16). One fluke on Everton’s part, and they could be playing the English League One at the start of the 2010-11 season.

Makes sense for the club to take Donovan out on loan from the LA Galaxy, they need a good, smart, midfielder to help create solid set-pieces and get their tempo going. It was a shame on their 1-1 draw against Birmingham, and shot that Howard just barely couldn’t handle. Everton dominated that game.

The main question though has been going on, and it’s getting to an irritation point now.

“Is Donovan ready for Europe?”

Or on the flip-side of things:

“Is Europe ready for Donovan?”

Landon Donovan last winter on a Brayer Munich loan. He played with them for five friendlies scoring four goals. This was his game coming on as a sub against Hamburg.

Yes and yes. Donovan, who sometimes can be classified as an underachiever is no longer try to gain respect…he’s earned it. His performance on the international stage has been far from superb. Donovan has been playing at a(n) exceptional astute level, as he’s helped navigate the United States national team through the hexagonal round to qualify as the top CONCACAF team for the World Cup next June.

Then again—he did the same thing three years in 2006. But since then, his plays improved. He’s a more alert, more calm and dangerous player…humbled by his greatness.

So, that being said, all this praise of Donovan, the thing that’s h

olding him back in Major League Soccer, most of his temmates on the national team are playing on much superior soccer clubs in the German Bundasliga, English Premier League, Frech Liege A, Italie Serie A and B, and a the Scottish Premier League—to name a few.

Donovan? He’s stuck playing in Major League Soccer, the subordinate, cast-off league of the World, where the best players from weak international teams come to play. Donovan has stayed in the league for certain reasons though. One being, is that the average American, doesn’t know jack shit about the top leagues in Europe. They might know the local MLS team, and that’s probably it.

Thanks to Donovan, he’s become an iconic American figure in the league for the second generation of the league. Stars like Cobi Jones, Brian McBride, Jeff Agoos and Ben Olsen were the forefathers in American international in Major League Soccer.

The thing is, as the American national team improved tremendously this decade, becoming the strongest its ever been, its star players are playing overseas, isolating themselves from the American mainstream sports media. When the national team plays, people are usually unfamiliar with the names of the players.

Here’s where Donovan comes into the picture. His indispensable role on the squad for both the LA Galaxy (MLS’s second most popular team after the Seattle Sounders FC) and the United States national team is connecting America better to soccer, and it’s beauty. Honestly, MLS would have been fine without Beckham coming over, he didn’t need to save the league. The league didn’t need and doesn’t need saving. This is unlike the North American Soccer League from 1968 through 1984, where Pele came in 1976 and revived the league, and made its attendance rival those of Major League Baseball with the New York Cosmos averaging 55,000 fans a game at their prime.

Landon Donovan and David Beckham in the MLS Cup semifinal match against the Houston Dynamo. This was after Donovan scored a penalty kick to make it 2-0. Beckham is joining AC Milan on loan this winter. (So he can play with the England national team in South Africa this summer).

America needs an American is perhaps the best to put this in a metaphorical sense. When you got a star international that’s American playing in MLS, it makes America…what’s the word…more…knowledgeable perhaps per say. Donovan has made MLS look less off a sandbox league and more of a league that can gain international respect. For the time being though, it will be seen by Europe as the inferior league, a hotbed for recruiting young superstars to mediocre European teams, and a place where aging stars can sign off on their careers after no European team wants them, and where they can make intense sums of money in the process. Look at Beckham and Blanco afterall.

Point being, this IS Donovan’s chance to prove to Europe and the international club soccer community his talent. He didn’t get much of a chance in the Bundasliga, but he’s in a stronger league now, with the best of international soccer. It’s his opportunity to show Europe and maybe even the World, that he’s no second-rate superstar just because he dominates MLS, which he is the recent MLS Most Valuable Player of the 2009 season. Should have Chris Pontius (being a D.C. United fan), but oh well.

Donovan’s loan to Everton officially begins on New Year’s Day for the new decade. Funny, eh? Everton’s first game of January will be an FA Cup third round match on Jan. 2 where the toffees will take on Carlisle United F.C.—a no show third-level, League One team that barely avoided relegation to League Two and has never even made to the Football League Championship (England’s second level league). Everton should crush them. I expect Donovan to maybe come on in the second half. Or maybe he’ll play the whole game, so Moyes could rest regular starters.

First of all, let me thank everyone for the terrific response.

Unfortunately, this contest did not have a winner. It is a surprise that amongst all the mails I received, nobody expected Denilson to be the first scorer. Many people got the score right but I feel it’s unfair to give out the prize based on a half correct answer. As a result, I have decided to extend this contest to the Aston Villa game.

Here’s another chance to win Arsenal merchandise of your choice. The rules will remain the same and will apply to the home game against Villa on 27^th December. You have to predict the first goal scorer and the exact score of this game for a chance to win your favorite Arsenal merchandise.

• The contest is open to everyone. Feel free to share the details.
• Send your emails to desigunnercontestATgmailDOTcom – obviously replacing the AT with @ and DOT with.
• You can pick the product of your choice from SoccerPro’s selection of Arsenal products. You can choose from the home, away and third jerseys, training tops, shorts, or  supporter t-shirts.
• Include the following in your email – Name of the first goal scorer, the final score, the product of your choice with size, your Name and complete shipping address. Only the winning person’s information will be shared with the sponsor to enable shipping. The rest will be in my mailbox and will be deleted after the contest is over. So it should be quite safe.
• I have deleted all the previous emails, so please do not ask me to look for the details in your previous mail.
• The subject line of the email should be SoccerPro Contest
• Please be clear with the score prediction. 2-1 will not be the same as 1-2. It’s best if you use this format Arsenal 5 – 0 Villa.
• Only one entry per person please.
• The email must be in my inbox one hour before the scheduled start of play. I don’t want you to know the starting eleven’s before making the predictions
• In case, due to a surge in holiday sales, the product of your choice is not in stock you will be asked to pick a different one. I will deal with this once we have a winner as this applies to only one person.
• There will be only one winner and if more than one person gets this right, I will pick one randomly.
• This is a fun contest being run in good faith. I will not entertain any disputes.
• Leave a comment if you want any clarifications. I won’t be able to reply to emails.

This contest is sponsored by SoccerPro, a retail as well as online soccer shop. They sell a wide range of products including soccer shirts and the Arsenal jersey.

Let’s hope we have a winner this time. Wish you all the best.

I have been thinking about this ever since our trip to Anfield. In his post match interview after Liverpool, Arsene said,

I believe first of all Liverpool played very well in that period and we played with a handbrake because of our fear. That fear was of not winning the big games because we lost against Chelsea and Manchester United. You could see that we brought that into the game. Once we had nothing to lose in the second half we controlled the game

In itself, this statement would not mean much. But I have felt a sense of hesitancy about our play in almost all the away games so far. Even after the Sunderland game Le Boss had said,

I believe that going forward especially we lacked sharpness and desire to go behind the defenders. We had chosen the easy part of the game, that is always come to the ball and not to be exposed then with our pace in behind. In football, if you want to score goals, you have to go behind the defenders

It’s not perfectly clear what Wenger is trying to say here. My understanding is that he is saying we had played it safe by staying more in the central third in stead of taking the game to the opposition third. We came to take the ball and did not make runs behind their defense as there is a risk of exposing our defense if we are adventurous. If we look at the guardian chalkboards for Rosicky and Nasri in that game, as I had done in the detailed analysis, it looks like an accurate observation.

After the Liverpool game Arsene also said something like, if we had gone two behind before half time the game would have been over. I can’t find the exact statement but it was certainly a surprise to hear Le Boss speak of not having a hope if the opposition went two up.

I do wonder if this team has lost the confidence that we can actually dominate and win big games. Against United and Chelsea, we have only two or three wins in the last four years. We haven’t scored more than two against these sides for a long, long time now. Our losses on the other hand are double in number and we have been thrashed on occasions. There are times when it seems we have played these teams off the park but that is more because we have dominated the central areas and kept possession rather than creating multiple chances and scoring a ton of goals.

Then there are defeats like the ones at Citeh when we tried to take the game to the final third and left ourselves exposed. The Manchester Blues had enough quality to hit us hard every time they got a break.

How many times have we seen the opposition get one or two chances in the whole game and still go away with a point or even a win? At times, these chances come from set pieces while other occasions are mostly counter attacks based on a long ball. Even the set pieces are often a result of a fast break.

If someone can find the stats for conceding on counter attacks, we might just be on top. Part of that is down to the fact that we normally control the ball and the opposition can only rely on fast breaks. But there can be no denying the fact that we are not as good at stopping counter attacks as the other top sides are.

We have a number of youngsters in the squad and they have grown up together over the last few years. In these years, we have lost most of the big matches against the top sides. Can anyone deny the psychological impact of these defeats on the team? Mental strength is a big part of professional sport these days, but isn’t it natural to feel a negative and sapping sense of déjà vu if things don’t go our way in a big game?

We never looked like we could come back against United in the Champions League last season. We didn’t look like we had the energy against Chelsea either. We can still keep ball for most parts but the opposition will always be happy to let us have it when they can see that we are lacking the cutting edge.

I am not trying to say that we will never win or we are not good enough. I am not criticizing the players or the manager either. The point here is to identify an issue that could be holding us back. If so, it is imperative that we get right to the root of it and find some solutions.

A couple of big wins will certainly help, but until that happens we run the risk of being caught in a negative spiral. This could then extend to all away matches as well. Something, I feel, we are seeing at the moment when we aren’t taking the game to teams like Burnley.

What do you think, can fear cost us the title?

: : : : : : : :

About a week ago , I was e-Mailing an old friend back home across the water . We both follow the same team and played soccer together at times . I was making a point about what I felt was happening in the Premier League and what I saw in the next 3-4 months.

Here’s what I wrote :

” I think that the top of the league is changing . Neither of these two teams ( Arsenal and Liverpool) looked like they can handle either of United or Chelsea . I think you have the top 2 , then a second group of 5 teams , and then the rest. We’ll see……… “

Seven days afterwards , I have completely changed my view . This is groundbreaking because I’m a stubborn old dog ( I’m sure my sons are laughing at this ! ) and it takes a lot for me to complete a U-turn . However , over the course of the last 10 days , I’ve watched a ton of soccer involving the Premier League and it’s started to dawn on me that changes are afoot.

To understand how much of a shift we might be seeing right now ,you have to look at the history of the Premier League since it’s inception in 1993 . A total of 43 clubs have participated but only 4 teams have actually won the title . Man Utd (11 titles) , Arsenal (3 titles), Chelsea (2 titles) , and Blackburn Rovers (1 title) . A quite astounding statistic considering that 20 teams start each season . It appears that the talent is heavily weighted towards a select few teams and that a large gap exists between the top few clubs and the rest of the division . There is no salary cap , and no restriction on the amount of money an owner can put into his club. A world away from the salary strapped owners of the NFL and NBA and different  to a degree from even MLB .

Roman Abramovich

Randy Lerner

Ellis Short

Several wealthy owners have taken over Premier League teams in the past 6-7 years with some Forbes 50 type assets :

Some extremely powerful ownership there who are not afraid to use their financial strength to improve their teams . An interesting observation I have made over the last 5-6 years is how differently some of these owners run their clubs . Liverpool , Manchester United , and Tottenham are severely debt-ridden whilst Chelsea , and Manchester City are run like Fantasy teams where money is no object . It’s no surprise then that 15 of the 16 title wins have come from teams in this group .

Has this massive influx of wealth and lopsided domination affected the popularity of the Premier League ?  Absolutely not . It is the richest , and some say the best , Soccer league in the world currently . It has more international players from more countries playing in front of more fans paying the most in TV rights . The “Top 4″ of Man Utd , Chelsea , Arsenal , and Liverpool is a regular term used week in and week out through the season . Managers and players from lower teams in the league constantly talk of breaking into that elite group but it hardly ever happens , except maybe this year …………………………..

To date the League positions are as follows :

The interesting part is not so much the point differences , which show that Fulham are 15pts behind Chelsea with just under half the season in the book , but look at the number of defeats that the top 4 teams have to date . 21 total which is highly unusual . Another important clue is to look at some of the trends that are developing within the “Top 4″ elite.

Manchester United
1) Lost 3-0 to Fulham yesterday and never looked like scoring .
2) It was their 5th loss of the season – only lost 4 games last year.
3) Almost their entire defensive unit is  on the injured list.

Chelsea
1) Drew 1-1 with West Ham today who are 2nd from bottom with only 15pts . Should have lost in the last 2 mins from a point-blank header.
2) Only have 1 win in the last 6 games – against bottom club Portsmouth .
3) Are set to lose 4 of their starting line-up for a month because of African Nations Cup commitments.

Arsenal
1) 4 defeats this season . Only lost 6 games total last season and only 3 games in 2007-2008 season.
2) Constantly struggle to beat  strong, physical , mid to lower-table teams .
3) Lost one of their only two recognized big strikers , Robin Van Persie , for the season .

Liverpool
1) Lost 2-0 to bottom club Portsmouth yesterday and only had one shot on goal.
2) Seven losses to date this year . Only 2 losses the whole of last season
3) A team which does not have the ability to “finish teams off” . 11 draws last year cost them the title.
4) A club in crisis with Benitez hanging on to his job by a thread.

We are now seeing teams in the top half of the division that usually struggle near the foot of the table . Birmingham and Fulham usually start the season just to try to keep from getting relegated . Some of the mid-table teams have started to believe that they can now win against the top clubs and success breeds more wins .Teams that traditionally would start a match against one of the “Top 4″ in a wholly defensive posture are now actually employing tactics to try to win the game.

Now one point to remember is that traditionally after the New Year , the top clubs tend to pull away from the rest because of their squad size and the undoubted depth of their talent . However , this year , especially in a World Cup season , players from every team are desperate to impress their National team managers to try to grab a spot in South Africa at the end of this season , so I would guess that would mean a more competitive last half of the year.

Martin O'Neill

My tip for the season . I still think Chelsea will win the title but my dark horse is Aston Villa . Martin O’Neill has assembled a top class squad of players who love the coach,their owner and might just do enough to catch the leaders . I also predict that both Arsenal and Liverpool will finish out of the “Top 4″ with Tottenham and Man City taking their places . A huge financial implication from that is that 5th place or lower means NO Champions League place for next season.

All in all , a very interesting situation developing just before the Christmas period where teams will play 5 games in 12 days.

Should be great to watch…………………………………..

Barclays Premier League

Saturday, 19 December 2009

Arsenal 3-0 Hull
Aston Villa 1-0 Stoke
Blackburn 0-2 Tottenham
Fulham 3-0 Man Utd
Man City 4-3 Sunderland
Portsmouth 2-0 Liverpool  

Sunday, 20 December 2009

Everton 1-1 Birmingham
West Ham 1-1 Chelsea
Wolverhampton 2-0 Burnley  

La Liga

Saturday, 19 December 2009

Seville 1-2 Getafe
Real Madrid 6-0 Real Zaragoza
Athletic Bilbao 2-0 Osasuna 

Sunday 20 December 2009

Villareal 2-0 Racing Santander
Valladolid 2-1 Sporting Gijon
Malaga 2-1 Mallorca
Espanyol 2-0 Almeria
Tenerife 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Still to play: Deportivo v Valencia   

Serie A

 Sunday 20 December 2009  

Napoli 2 – 0 Chievo
Palermo 1 – 0 Siena
AS Roma 2 – 0 Parma
Livorno 3 – 1 Sampdoria
Juventus 1 – 2 Catania  

Carlo Ancelotti sold Gianfranco Zola  to Chelsea for £4.5m in 1996  when he was managing the Italian side Parma’s. Gianfranco Zola went on to become a legend at the west-london club being voted as the best ever Chelsea player by the Chelsea fans in 2003. Carlo Ancelotti went on to become one of the world’s best football managers leading his teams to many titles including 2 Champions League titles. Ancelotti still rues the day he sold Zola over tactical disagreement with the player. Ancelotti wanted to play a 4-4-2 system but the impish Zola wanted to play in the centre as a striker. Carlo a Zola fan admits to it being one of the  biggest mistakes of his career blaming his managerial inexperience at the time. He is however quick to see the silver-lining; Zola wouldn’t have had the great success that he had with Chelsea had he not sold him.

Today, the two men meet again as Zola’s former club Chelsea being managed by his former Parma manager Carlo Ancelotti go to play West Ham United which Zola currently manages to try and extend their lead and go 6 points clear of Manchester United, who were completely outplayed by Fulham last night,  at the top the Premier League Table.Zola must beat the club that made him a legend if West Ham United are to climb out of the relegation spots of the Premier League Table, but may be it would be simpler for him if he thought of it as the team of the man who failed to see his potential so many years ago and sold him, even though that turned out to be the first step to his becoming the success that he became! Claudio Ranieri once famously said of  Gianfranco Zola, “Gianfranco tries everything because he is a wizard and the wizard must try” but the fact that West Ham United haven’t won this East London versus West London derby since 2003 doesn’t help. Its not going to be easy, however with or without the history… beating Chelsea rarely is… easy.

It’s very British if you say,” Let’s have tea..” Suddenly it seems the shores of England Cappucino is the favoured drink in the afternoon. How times have changed and how the connections and flavours have taken off. Has the Serie A losts its sting to the English PremierLeague. Wow! It’s an influx of Who’s Who in Italian Football heading to the British Isles. 

Heading the lists of Italians landing the top football Management posts are Fabio Capello (England) Gianfranco Zola( West Ham) Carlo Ancelotti( Chelsea) and now Manchester City has added Roberto Mancini to the lists.

The recent upsurge of Italians to the Managers seat comes after the 1st revolution of Italian football superstars to play in the English Premier League.  Top Football Managers in EPL in the last twenty years has been dominated by Alex Ferguson (Scottish) Kenny Dalgish (Scottish) George Graham(Scottish) Aresen Wenger(French).

Now  it seems that Fabio Capello would have three of his countryman helping him to chart  Englands World Cup Dreams  in Next Years World Cup in South Africa. The English are ready to pick up this new trend of having a cup of cappucino plus having lasagna,pizza nd sphagetti to achieve their World Cup Dream.

Times have changed eversince the days when I was a first year student in the UK when the landlady said to me in the afternoons,”Lets have Tea..” Are you ready for the Change and Move  on to Cappucino…hmmm hik hik hik….??

I must say the starting line up had me a little worried. Looking at Song, Denilson and Diaby in the middle, it was difficult to imagine where the creativity would come from. The initial few minutes were worrisome as Hull went about hassling our players and it was clear that the ref was going to be lenient about it, once again.

Once we got our movement flowing the initial fears changed to expectation. The midfield and frontline exchanged positions seamlessly and it looked like we just needed the final ball to set the scoreboard ticking. I was really happy to see the players making an effort to get into the Hull penalty area. This was so different from the sideways passing that we sometimes witness.

Hull came to replicate the plan used by Burnley. For most of the first half they were able to maintain their defensive shape but lacked any serious threat upfront. Their only hope was to fight for every ball and wait for a mistake.

Incidents surrounding two dubious free kicks towards the end of the first half changed the game. Nasri seemed to clip Garcia on the ankle. If it was deliberate, I say kudos to Samir. Unfortunately, the Frenchman didn’t go down clutching his face when Barmby shoved him in the face. It might have led to a sending off. Hopefully, there won’t be further action in this case.

The fracas might have ruffled Hull but it didn’t affect Denilson. I liked the way he took ownership of the situation and delivered. The free kick was more about intelligence and placement rather than power and technique. The Brazilian saw the opportunity and passed the ball into the net. If we can improve on our threat from set pieces, most teams will think twice before getting too physical with us in the defensive third. This is just a start so we will have to see how it develops.

In the second half Hull came out with purpose and we seemed have lapses in concentration. The game was more open with chances for both sides, none better than the one that Eduardo created for himself with a brilliant turn. A shame, the finish couldn’t match the quality of the turn.

On the other end, Steve Bennett gave one of the softest penalties we will ever see. It might be luck balancing out after a few decisions that have gone our way recently, or it could be the ref’s way for making up after awarding us the free kick that lead to the goal. Almunia did enough to keep the lead intact. The keeper was modest enough to attribute the save to luck but no one can deny his role in keeping our confidence high.

It shook us out of our slumber and Diaby showed he can offer a lot when he sets his mind to it. Arsenal could have scored four or five more in the final half hour of the game. Eduardo got a tap in after good work from the lanky Frenchman, who capped off a fine performance with a goal of his own.

Hull were completely outplayed and it was only a question of how many we will score. The clean sheet was a bonus and will hopefully help our defenders and keeper feel more confident in future games.

Individual Performances

Almunia: Didn’t put a foot wrong. A penalty save is probably the best a keeper can do. Deserves credit after being under scrutiny for so long.

Eboue: Did well defensively. Was probably given instructions to curb his attacking instincts.

Gallas: Had a good game. Hull didn’t have enough to challenge him

Vermaelen: Same as Gallas

Silvestre: The visitors couldn’t get in behind as often as Burnley did. Showed great movement, positional sense and passing in the attacking third. Even ventured into the opposition box.

Song: Solid as ever.

Denilson: Put in another unobtrusive high value effort. Can be a big player if he works on his free kicks.

Diaby: Looked lazy in patches and incisive in others. I am still waiting for him to play at his best for 90 minutes game after game.

Nasri: Moved all over the pitch and always looked positive. Should work more on set piece delivery.

Arshavin: Quiet by his standards but fairly effective when he got involved.

Eduardo: Great movement. Made himself available quite often. Finishing is still rusty.

Subs: Ramsey, Theo and Vela had some good touches.

Overall, there wasn’t much to complain about in this game if I ignore the ref. But it’s Hull at home and we have to win these comfortably. Amongst the competitors, United got thrashed and it just goes to show how difficult it is to cope with multiple injuries in one area of the pitch. Chelsea take on West Ham tomorrow and there can be an upset in that one as well.

Finally, a word on Mark Hughes. Wenger might feel sad that a fellow manager got the sack but I have to confess I am delighted. Hughes wasn’t good enough to succeed even with such massive financial backing. Worse was his cheap attitude when he was disrespectful towards Arsene. Thankfully, Citeh have appointed Mancini and I am writing off their challenge for a top 4 slot this year.

Anyone involved in football’s top flight, both players and managers, know they are judged by their performances and their results. If a player is not producing the quality required week-in week-out he is dropped and, if things don’t improve, they are eventually transferred. No matter how great a servant they have been to the club, they will be let go. That’s the way it is. There’s no room for sentimentality at this level and nor should there be. Everyone knows it, everyone accepts it. You cannot be the best of the best if you don’t operate this way.

When it comes to management it’s no different. If you don’t get the performances from the team you assembled and don’t get the results then your ability and your methods should be questioned. It’s the right thing to do.

Liverpool Football Club are now in this position with Rafa Benitez. We have to put aside sentimentality and ask if Rafa is indeed the man to lead the team in the future. Liverpool FC are greater than any one individual will ever be.

After Liverpool’s performance today against Portsmouth, it’s looking less and less likely Benitez will be able to survive as manager much longer. He’s quickly loosing the support of Liverpool fan’s and one can only wonder if he were manager at Real Madrid or Chelsea how long they would allow this situation to continue.

It’s a sad state of affairs but at this level consistent poor performance usually results in one thing – the sack

Technorati Tags: Liverpool FC, Rafa Benitez, English Premier League

One of the quirks of parenthood is that, even when you wake up early, you don’t usually get to watch the shows you want to watch. So waking up at 7:30 to watch Portsmouth-Liverpool actually ended up with me watching “Special Agent Oso” with my three year old.

“Special Agent Oso” is about a bizarre panda bear who helps kids learn how to do crap or something because he’s part of some agency that’s got spies everywhere just WAITING for a kid who has a problem. Then Oso will interrupt his “training exercise” and rush out to help the kid, even though the kid usually knows how to do more about the task than Oso does (“Wait, should I wash the vegetable with a hair brush?” “No, Oso, you need to use a VEGETABLE brush!”). He does this because some disembodied head (named Paw Pilot…get it?!) tells him how to do whatever task he has to do in three special steps.

So even though it’s 2:45 or so right now, I’ve pretty much just finished watching the abomination that Liverpool put out against Portsmouth today. With Oso’s help, we’re going to try and slow down, stay positive, and fix Liverpool with three special steps. Let’s go, Paw Pilot.

Bench Glen Johnson Until He Learns How to Defend!

That’s right, kids. We’re sitting down the OTHER £18 million transfer that got brought in. This is for a good reason, though: he’s terrible.

Glen Johnson has absolutely been the weak link along the Liverpool back line over the last two games at least. While it may seem harsh to sit him down, consider that three of the four goals Liverpool have conceded in the last two matches were direct results of Glen Johnson’s inadequacy as a defender. Case in point:

• Goal #1 against Arsenal: A Glen Johnson own goal.
• Goal #2 against Arsenal: Glen Johnson commits some terribly lazy defending against Andriy Arshavin, allowing him far too much time and space by quitting on the challenge early; Arshavin then, with all the time in the world inside the box, bullets a shot into the back of the net.
• Goal #1 against Portsmouth: Glen Johnson, in trying to head the ball behind the goal, instead sets it up on a platter for Nadir Belhadj to score.

All three are on Johnson. Now, normally, one might say that his ability going forward makes him worth the liability at the back. Unfortunately, Johnson’s lack of confidence at the back has limited his ability going forward. Let’s look at his passes from the Portsmouth game:

See how they’re almost all in the middle third? That’s because Glen Johnson didn’t venture into attack positions at all. That’s why we like Johnson; he can deliver a nice cross. It makes up for his lack of defense. On that diagram, however, there’s only one “cross”: Johnson’s pass to Dossena, which probably amounted to a whole lot of nothing (since it was to Dossena). Until Johnson regains confidence in his play and/or improves his defending, he needs to sit down for awhile.

When You’re Down By a Goal, Bring On More Strikers!

Admittedly, this isn’t as easy as it sounds; Liverpool aren’t exactly spoiled with attacking talent. However, Torres and N’Gog are more threatening than Torres by himself. The situation of this game required Benitez to think a little more creatively than he usually likes to; the 4-2-3-1 simply wasn’t going to work for him in this one, especially once Mascherano was sent off. Removing either Lucas or Gerrard (preferably Gerrard, who’s been shockingly unproductive lately) in favor of N’Gog (or Aquilani, if he were fit and on the bench and had the trust of Benitez and wasn’t persona non grata around Merseyside or whatever the hell the problem is there) would’ve doubled the striking options…and, theoretically, your chance for getting a goal.

There were other substitution issues (Spearing? Really? And why do a defensive substitution when you’re hunting for a goal?), but Benitez’s insistence on playing th

Start Figuring Out Who’s Expendable, How Much You Can Get For Them, and Who You Buy With That Money

Look at, say, Mascherano. How much is he worth? £20 million? £30? Barca want him; what will they pay? Because come January, that’s going to be what makes or breaks this team. We’re not dumping Benitez (too much money), and we’re not going to attract a better manager even if we do (who’d want the drama?). So figure out how to squeeze a little more blood from this stone and try to keep it afloat next season.

Or, alternatively, find an owner who gives a shit and sell it to him.

]]> http://twtylertalk.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/liverpool-what-happened/ Sat, 19 Dec 2009 15:53:34 +0000 twtylertalk http://twtylertalk.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/liverpool-what-happened/

Portsmouth 2, Liverpool 0

Liverpool attacker, and Spanish international Fernando Torres in shock after Liverpool's loss to Portsmouth 2-0 at Fratton Park in Portsmouth, England.

Words can’t describe how much of a nadir the Reds now have hit following this embarrassing 2-0 loss to the Blue Army. Liverpool surrenders its fifth place spot to Tottenham, while Portsmouth-on the other hand-remain in dead last. Actually, they’re now tied with West Ham, but there’s a ton of those little technicalities holding them back from that spot.

Granted the sendoff Javier Mascherano did knock some spirit out of the Reds, only about nine minutes after they conceded the opening, and game winning goal, but still. They’re a top prospect team in the league, and to lose by a margin like this, to a weak team is simply unacceptable.

In ways, this is a bit of a reminder to Spanish striker, Fernando Torres about his bad past on the international level. I’m talking about Spain’s lackluster, and-ironically-a 2-0 loss to the United States in the FIFA Confederations Cup semifinal match, a game which Spain was to probably spank the Yanks. Turns out the reverse of fortune thanks to Hull City’s Jozy Altidore and Fulham’s Clint Dempsey proved otherwise.

Liverpool did start out strong, while Portsmouth, obviously, started out poor. Cut the Turks some slack though, they are a team that was promoted upwards from the English League One, and usually for teams that’s how it goes. A couple years ago, I don’t remember exactly, Derby County won the entire League One, and came in dead last in the English Premier League. It works that way sometimes.

This game, though looked like Liverpool was going to route Portsmouth, and it would be an easy cruise for the Reds and it would get them back on track in time for the holidays. Clearly that wasn’t the case.

Portsmouth celebrates off of Belaj's goal which gave the Blue Army the victory and the opening goal.

I tuned into the game a bit late, so it was around the 20 or 25th minute of play when I turned on ESPN2 and ate breakfast. It seemed to me that Liverpool was going to easily crush the weak Portsmouth, even if the game was at Fratton Park. Around the 30th minute or so, I noticed some strong counterattacking from Portsmouth. Impressive, but I didn’t expect anything out of it.

Boy was I wrong.

Ironically enough, the goal for Portsmouth was scored by a guy whose name was “Nadir”, funny huh? Well his real name was Nadir Belhadj, an Algerian international playing on the squad and he fired a rocket in the back corner, as a result from terrible defending on Liverpool’s part.

Clear, easy goal to give the Blue Army a surprising, yet deserving lead.  Pretty safe to assume, that Liverpool would fight back all throughout the first and second halves, right?

Piquionne scoring the second goal to give Portsmouth the 2-0 lead over Liverpool.

You’d be correct, but there was just some back luck on Liverpool’s part. Weak passes, holding the ball too long, getting the ball stolen to easily, and even some really excellent goalkeeping from the Bosnian international, Begovic. I would say he was the man of the match in this game.

How this all ties back to Torres reliving the USA v. Spain game a half year ago, was mostly due to the result of Everton’s Tim Howard, who is the starting goalkeeper for the United States. Like Howard in the Confederations Cup semifinal, Begovic was unstoppable, and playing perhaps his prime game. Stopping shots from famed internationals like Torres and Garrard.

Throughout the sixtieth and seventieth minutes, it seems like during that period Liverpool would deliver a heart-stopping equalizer. Didn’t happen. Heck, on a break-away following many attempts from Portsmouth the Blue Army, in the 82nd minute the French/Martiniquais international Frederic Puquionne scored a shot-similar to Belhadj’s shot, pretty much sealed the game, and caused Fratton Park to explode, and bring Liverpool to its knees in disgust.

Jonathan Spector and West Ham United await Portsmouth this Sunday.

What’s next for the two squads? Well, Liverpool needs to recover from that embarrassing loss and beat Wolverhampton, a game they should easily win, that game is on Boxing Day. They then play on the 29th against Aston Villa, which should be a good match.

If Portsmouth wants to gain some respect in the EPL, they’re going to need to win a couple more matches consecutively to accomplish that, and most importantly…get out of relegation zone. It will be the two weakest clubs playing next Saturday on Boxing Day as the Blue Army takes on West Ham United. American defender Johnathan Spector plays with them.

Alonso's departure a severe blow

Finding Liverpool in 6th place in the league, loosing 6 of their 17 games and 13 points adrift of Chelsea is a surreal experience, especially after the great run we had last season and the expectations it brought into this one. Perhaps I should have known better, especially after our indifferent pre-season form which carried into the beginning of the regular season, along with the fact the squad wasn’t strengthened as it should have been.

Being a loyal supporter I naturally want to do nothing but support Rafa and the team and, like Carragher, pray for better times and soon. I tell myself that criticizing the manager and the team won’t make the situation any better but can only make it worse and further fuel the negativity and doubt that has fallen over the club. But I’m a supporter in conflict. There needs to be change.

We’ve all loved Rafa for the great things he’s done for the club. Let’s face it, he brought glory back to Liverpool after years of being in the wilderness. But I’m concerned he’s losing the plot and is running out of ideas on how to turn things around this season. Tactically Rafa has reverted to what he knows best, a cautious approach. We all thought he’d finally figured out how to play in the Premiership in the second half of last season after the Middlesborough loss. He decide to throw caution to one side and let the team play open, attacking, football and it was fantastic to watch. Liverpool not only dominated games but they destroyed the likes of Real Madrid and Man. Utd. and it nearly won us the league title.

Benitez is an enigma. He maintains faith in players that should have been shown the door a long time ago and persists with players that and not good enough, especially to fill the gap left by the likes of Alonso. Xabi’s departure was a severe blow to the team, more than perhaps we realize. It was demoralizing to the rest of the players, not only because he was a great player but because he was such a positive influence. He was class. It set the tone for this season and affected ambitious players like Gerrard who were looking for Liverpool to add quality players not loose them and it possibly influenced Mascherano to consider his future at the club.

Maybe I would feel better if I accepted this season is now one of transition. Barring a miracle, we won’t win the league this year (although miracles do happen) and we could have a good run in the Europa Cup, maybe even win it. So perhaps I should give Rafa the benefit of the doubt for the rest of season and judge him and the team in May.

But if we don’t improve our league form, find ourselves out of the top four and the trophy cabinet bare once again even the most forgiving supporter will also be in conflict and be hard pressed not to demand there be a new of manager in charge at Anfield.

Let’s hope Rafa finds a way.

Technorati Tags: Anfield, English Premier League, LFC, Liverpool Football Club, Rafa Benitez, Steven Gerrard, Xabi Alonso