GEOFOAM : megatrend teknologi geoteknik menggunakan styrofoam

Styrofoam* adalah bahan yang tidak asing dalam kehidupan kita sehari-hari. Kebanyakan dari kita mengenalnya sebagai bahan untuk pembungkus / pengepakan (packaging) dan untuk deko­rasi, dan sebagian dari kita juga memandangnya sebagai limbah (waste) yang semakin hari semakin menjadi masalah lingkungan yang berat, karena terlihat makin berserakannya cangkir, bong­kah, dan lembaran styrofoam sepanjang mata memandang di pembuangan – pembuangan sampah, dan diperburuk citranya dengan fakta bahwa styrofoam ini adalah tidak membusuk (non­biodegradeable), sehingga timbunan sampah styrofoam akan terus bertambah apabila tidak didaur-ulang (recycling) secara profesional.

Sebenarnya istilah Styrofoam ini adalah merek dagang milik Dow Chemical Corp dari Amerika Serikat. Jadi, untuk menghargai hak cipta mereka, dari titik ini, artikel ini akan membahas bahan terse-but dengan nama umumnya, yaitu EPS (Expanded Polystyrene). Untungnya, dengan berkembangnya penelitian akan kegunaan EPS terakhir ini, penggunaan EPS sudah jauh lebih berwawasan dan bertanggung jawab dibanding dengan penggunaan untuk bahan pembungkus (packaging) dan dekorasi. Salah satu contoh penggunaan baru EPS yang populer adalah untuk bahan panel bangunan untuk penahan suhu dan suara, yang juga lebih tahan gempa. Produk2 panel bangunan dengan menggunakan EPS, sep­erti contohnya b-panel, sudah mulai diproduksi dan dipasarkan di Indonesia beberapa tahun terakhir ini, dan sudah mulai mendapat sambutan baik dari konsumen, baik pengembang properti, kon­sultan / kontraktor, maupun pemilik bangunan.Penggunaan EPS untuk bahan bangunan jauh lebih ramah lingkungan dibanding penggunaan EPS  untuk packaging, karena jangka pemakaiannya yang sangat panjang (bertahun-tahun selama bangunan diguna­kan), dan bukannya “sekali pakai buang” seperti EPS untuk pack­aging. selain itu, sewaktu bangunan suatu hari dibongkar, proses pendaur ulangan EPS dapat dilaksanakan secara sistematis.

Contoh penggunaan EPS yang baru lagi adalah Geofoam. Geo­foam adalah solusi geoteknik, yakni EPS yang didesain khusus dengan fungsi sebagai pengisi tanah atau material konstruksi lainnya. Sebenarnya solusi Geofoam initelah digunakan di man­canegara lebih dari 30 tahun. Salah satu perushaan EPS terkemu­ka di Eropa, Jebsen & Jessen, misalnya, dahulunya memproduksi EPS hanya untuk packaging, tetapi saat ini sudah lebih dari 70% omzetnya di Eropa adalah dari penjualan EPS untuk keperluan non-packaging, seperti untuk aplikasi geofoam. Di Asia Tengga­ra, termasuk Indonesia, Geofoam adalah baru merupakan suatu megatren teknologi geoteknik. Karena manfaat dan keunggulan­nya yang sangat jelas, dalam waktu dekat teknologi geofoam ini diperkirakan akan mendominasi dan menggantikan metodologi2 geoteknik konvensional.

Karena berat jenisnya yang sangat ringan (hanya sekitar 1/10, atau 10% dari rata2 berat tanah urugan), Geofoam mengurangi beban yang harus ditanggung oleh tanah dengan sangat signifi ­kan, yang efeknya adalah mengurangi dan memperlambat proses penurunan (settlement) pada tanah dasar dan infrastruktur di da­lamnya, serta dapat meningkatkan stabilitas tanah.

Geofoam memiliki kekuatan yang sangat tinggi untuk beratnya (excellent strength-to-weight ratio) dan nilai kekuatan kompresif (compressive strength) yang tinggi, sehingga cocok untuk keper­luan konstruksi beban berat, seperti misalnya untuk jalan angku­tan berat. Bahkan, Geofoam sudah diaplikasikan untuk landasan sebuah bandara!

Keuntungan-keuntungan penggunaan Geofoam :

1. Sangat ringan (berat jenis sekitar 1/10, atau 10% dari tanah uru  gan) sehingga mengurangi dan memperlambat penurunan ta­nah secara signifi kan
2. Kekuatan kompresi yang tinggi sehingga dapat digunakan un­tuk keperluan konstruksi bobot berat
3. Tahan lama dan umur pemakaian (service life) yang sangat panjang
   • Tidak membusuk (non-biodegradeable) dan tidak teroksdasi oleh udara, air, maupun elemen alam lainnya
   • Tahan rayap (dengan treatment khusus)
4. Hemat waktu (=hemat biaya)
   • Balok EPS sangat ringan sehingga mengurangi kendala logistik
   • Efisiensi peralatan dan tenaga kerja
   • Mudah dibentuk dan dipasang
   • Instalasi tidak tertunda oleh kondisi cuaca

Beberapa contoh penggunaan Geofoam:

1. Pengganti urugan tanah untuk pembuatan jalan
2. Retaining Wall (Mengurangi tekanan dan gerakan lateral pada dinding)
3. Pembatas Jembatan
4. Undakan pada gedung bioskop
5. Meninggikan elevasi lantai

Kebanyakan pabrik EPS hanya memproduksi EPS untuk packag­ing, sehingga sangat sulit untuk mereka perduli, mengerti, dan sanggup mendesain pesanan EPS untuk geofoam secara benar

Jadi, apabila anda tertarik dengan EPS untuk keperluan konstruk­si seperti misalnya untuk aplikasi  Geofoam, pastikan suplier EPS anda memenuhi syarat-syarat berikut ini:

• Suplier memproduksi EPS di fasilitas sendiri sehingga kualitas EPS (bahan baku, densitas, pembalokan) akan lebih terjamin. Seringkali seorang suplier mengaku punya pabrik sendiri, pada kenyataan mengambil barang dari pabrik lain.
• Suplier mempunyai kapasitas produksi yang tinggi. Volume EPS untuk pemasangan geofoam adalah jauh lebih besar dari kebanyakan volume pemesanan EPS untuk packaging. Pabrik EPS yang biasanya hanya menerima pesanan packaging akan kewalahan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan EPS untuk geofoam
• Suplier sudah membuat EPS untuk keperluan konstruksi, dan mempunyai tim dan staf ahli (teknik sipil, geoteknis) di dalam organisasinya. EPS untuk geofoam adalah bahan yang harus didesain secara teknis (highly engineered material), tidak sep­erti EPS untuk packaging. Suplier yang sudah memproduksi EPS untuk keperluan konstruksi sudah faham benar dengan syarat2 EPS mutu konstruksi (Construction grade), misalnya dengan persyaratan EPS tipe Fire Retardant (FR).

Sumber : PT. Beton Elemenindo Putra, www.b-panel.com

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- One purpose of this post is to demonstrate the powerful effect of projecting future growth from the last quarter of reported data vs. the last fiscal year.

** With that single change, my Forecast High EPS was some 16% greater than the Ken Kavula/Consensus SSG Forecast High EPS for Strayer Education (STRA).  Strayer was the Online Stock Study for October, we both used the same EPS estimate, and the only difference was that I projected growth from the last Q while Ken & the Consensus projected from the last FY. 

- Another purpose is to evaluate the different judgments that led Ken & the Consensus to decide that STRA was a SSG Buy while I concluded that it was a SSG Don’t Buy.

Online Stock Study:

- Strayer Education (STRA) was the Online Stock Study for October 2009 at the Better Investing website and was led by Ken Kavula, chairman of the BI Advisory Board and a small company guru. 

- BI members can download the Audio Presentation (54 mins), Presentation Slides, Value Line Reports, and the Completed SSG.

Company Background:

- Strayer Education (STRA) and its subsidiary, Strayer University, are for-profit companies.  At the end of 2008, SU had some 46,000 students at 71 campuses in 15 states (mostly on the SE coast) and a large online student body.

- SU offered the following degrees: Bachelor’s (54%), Master’s (27%) and Associates (11%) and its students were majoring in Business/Economics (61%), Information Systems (16%), and Accounting (12%). 

 - Morningstar reported that enrollment growth has averaged 18% per year for the last 5 years due to additional online students and new campuses.  Strayer currently seeks to add about 6-11 campuses annually.

- Morningstar also reported that Strayer has a lower cost structure than traditional schools, but offers its courses at similar prices.  And, according to Reuters, online courses are priced the same as on-campus offerings with over 32,000 students participating in SU’s online programs.

- Strayer’s revenue comes from three sources according to Wikinvest: about half is paid via federally insured loans, about 20% is paid by companies whose employees attend SU, and the rest is paid directly by students.

- Graduate level tuition at SU costs $2050 per course and undergraduate tuition costs $1515 per course for full-time students and $1590 for part-timers.  A BBA degree requires 180 credit hours and costs (at 3 credits per course) some $95,000.

- In Q 3, which ended 9/30/09, revenues increased 31% due to increased enrollment and a 5% tuition increase that was effective January 1^st. Enrollment increased 22% to 54,317 students with 39,129 taking at least one online class.

Company Financials:

- Value Line gave Strayer an “A” for Financial Strength, reported no debt and $38.6 M in cash as of 6/30/09.

- Morningstar says that Strayer is in “excellent” financial health with no debt and has the highest score for financial responsibility from the US Dept of Education.

  Discussion:

- The following table compares the Consensus & Ken Kavula SSG with two of mine and with Take Stock.  The only difference between my two SSGs is that Armin-1 uses S&P data while Armin-2 uses Hemscott-Morningstar data.  After the table, I discuss issues identified by the comparison.

(1) CONSENSUS & KEN’S SSG:

Future Sales Growth:

- Ken gave the group 5 choices to estimate STRA’s future Sales growth: 22.00%, its ten year historical growth; 21.00%, its five year historical growth; 22.80%, Value Line’s estimate [??]; 19.00%, Morningstar’s estimate; and Other.

** Value Line makes no long-term Sales estimate and Ken did not explain how he determined that 22.80% was VL’s estimate.

- The Consensus (49%) agreed on 19.00%, Morningstar’s estimate, but Ken decided that 18.00% was better even though it was not offered as a choice.

- Ken has a strange understanding of consensus decision-making!!

Future EPS Growth:

- Ken used the NAIC/BI Preferred Procedure as one estimate of future EPS growth and relied essentially on the software default values: Sales = 18.0%; Pre-Tax Profit Margin = 34.0% (the only change from the 33.9% default); Taxes = 38.5%; and Shares Outstanding = 14.0 M.  His PP result was 19.0% EPS.

** One participant asked why he didn’t use VL’s higher estimate of 14.5 M shares outstanding in the next 3-5 years and Ken said he thought VL’s report on Strayer was too aggressive.

- Ken gave the group 5 choices to estimate future EPS growth: 20.00%, the S&P estimate; 18.60%, STRA’s 10 year historical growth; 24.60%, VL’s estimate; 19.00%, Ken’s PP; and Other.

- The Consensus (47%) agreed on 19.00%, Ken’s PP, and not surprisingly Ken did not disagree this time.

Forecast High PE:

- Ken offered 5 choices: 40.4, the 5 year average High PE; 38.2, the 10 year average; 42.6, the 2 year average; 42.3, the most recent year High PE; and Other.

- Before the vote, Ken said he personally would only use the “Other” choice, but gave no further guidance.  It’s no surprise that the Consensus (76%) chose “Other” and Ken then chose 35.0, but gave no reason.

Forecast Low PE:

- Ken gave participants 5 choices: 25.3, the 5 year average Low PE; 21.1, the 10 year average; 24.2, the 2 year average; 25.1, the most recent year Low PE.

- The Consensus (39%) chose 21.1, the 10 year average, but Ken again disregarded the Consensus and selected 25.0, and again gave no reason.

Final Results:

- Neither the Forecast High nor Low Prices involve judgment with the Onlune SSG:

** The Forecast High Price is simply the product of the Forecast High PE (30.0) multiplied by the Forecast High EPS ($13.53) which totaled $473.10, some 4.00% greater than the high end of VL’s $335-455 High Price estimate.  I guess this VL estimate was not too aggressive for Ken.

** The Online SSG offers no options to decide the Forecast Low Price, unlike our SSG software, and relies soley on the Low PE x Low EPS which totaled $165.77.

 (2) Armin’s SSG:

Projecting Growth From:

- SSG software lets us choose from three options to project future growth (Last FY, Last Q, the historical trend line) and I chose the Last Q in order to demonstrate the powerful effect of this decision.

- Ken chose to use the Online SSG which offers no options and always projects growth from the Last FY.

 Future EPS Growth:

- I deliberately used 19.00% EPS growth, just as Ken did, and got a High EPS of $15.77 compared to his $13.53, a difference of 16.6% with S&P or with Hemscott-Morningstar data which, to me, is no small potatoes.

** The difference would have been 23.3% if I had projected from STRA’s Q3 which ended on 9/30/09, but was reported after the Online Stock Study, and Ken & the Consensus continued to project from the last FY.

- The seven different analysts I always check for every SSG were estimating long-term EPS at 21.06% with Value Line high at 25.00% and FactSet via Morningstar.com low at 19.50%.  S&P and FactSet CallStreet via CNNMoney.com were both 20.00%, Zacks.com was 20.44%, Reuters was 21.24%, and Reuters Thomson via Yahoo Finance was 21.25%.

- The six analysts at FactSet Call Street via CNN Money.com ranged from a low of 14.00% to a high of 23.0%.  The six analysts at Reuters.com ranged from a low of 18.00% to a high of 24.40%. 

 - Any EPS estimate lower than 14.00% is way too low for me while higher than 24.40 or 25.00% seems way too high.  These low and high estimates are how I determine what’s reasonable and what’s not; see: Determining What’s Reasonable and What’s Not: An Update 

- For how I estimate EPS for all my SSGs, see: Estimating EPS

Forecast High PE:

- I used 30.0 compared to Ken’s 35.0 which I thought was too high.  Toolkit’s Alt-M command usually is the most conservative option.  It eliminates the 5 highest High PEs in the last 10 years, averages the rest, and shows 31.9 with S&P data (31.5 with Hemscott data).  The Online SSG that Ken used does not include the Alt-M command.

Forecast Low PE:

- The major difference between Ken’s SSG and mine is our Forecast Low PEs.  Ken used 25.0 while I used 18.7.  This explains why I got a SSG Don’t Buy while Ken got a SSG Buy.

(3) Pretax Profit Margin (PTPM) and Return on Equity:

- Ken missed or ignored the 5 year downtrend in PTPM (Presentation Slide 26) which typically signals a red-flag warning sign of potential trouble.

- STRA’s PTPM us better than its Industry Average (33.9% vs 14.4%), but the company’s ROE is worse than its Industry Average (33.5% vs 39.9%).

- Ken compared STRA to three peers: Apollo Group (APOL), ITT Educational (ESI) and DeVry (DV).  He found that STRA was better than the three peers in terms of PTPM, but worse than 2 of the three in terms of ROE.

 - Armin

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01. I Will Be There
02. Living In A Fucking Time Warp
03. It’s Illegal, It’s Immoral, It’s Unhealthy But It’s Fun

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Nếu bạn là một nhà đầu tư chứng khoán, trước khi quyết định mua cổ phiếu, bạn cần phải hết sức cẩn trọng. Ðặc biệt là cần tính toán kỹ và xác định xem cổ phiếu của công ty đó có giá trị hay không. Tốt nhất là nên nắm được cách thức đầu tư và an toàn nhất nên chọn các công ty đã có những thành công và tiếng tăm nhất định trên thị trường.

Nói thì rất dễ, nhưng để tìm ra được những dấu hiệu quan trọng giúp bạn nhận biết việc đầu tư của mình có chính xác và khôn ngoan hay không lại không đơn giản chút nào. Dưới đây là cách thức và các dấu hiệu giúp bạn nhận ra các cổ phiếu có giá trị trên thị trường.

Đầu tiên, bạn hãy lập ra một danh sách các công ty lớn, đã phát hành cổ phiếu ra thị trường. Sau đó bạn sẽ thường xuyên theo dõi sự lên xuống giá cổ phiếu đó trên thị trường.

Tuy nhiên, để xác định đâu là một công ty lớn, cổ phiếu của nó sẽ có giá trị trên thị trường, bạn cần phải căn cứ vào năm dấu hiệu phân biệt quan trọng sau đây:

1. Có thương hiệu nổi tiếng và uy tín trên thị trường

Trước hết, bạn hãy nghĩ đến các thương hiệu nổi tiếng trên thế giới mà chủ sở hữu của nó đã đầu tư vào sản xuất trong đất nước bạn, dưới dạng các công ty 100% vốn nước ngoài hay các công ty liên doanh. Ví dụ như General Electric, Microsoft, Apple, Marlboro…, đó là những thương hiệu được xếp hạng trong 40 thương hiệu nổi tiếng nhất trên thế giới, theo sự bình chọn và đánh giá của Tổ chức tư vấn thương hiệu Interbrand. Dấu hiệu này rất quan trọng, đảm bảo sự thành công trong kinh doanh của công ty này trên đất nước của bạn, và hiển nhiên cổ phiếu của họ chắc chắn sẽ có giá trị trên thị trường. Nếu bạn quyết định đầu tư vào cổ phiếu của những công ty này, mức độ rủi ro sẽ rất ít.

2. Kinh doanh những sản phẩm và dịch vụ có ý nghĩa

Bạn hãy tìm kiếm những công ty mà sản phẩm, dịch vụ của chúng thực sự là nhu cầu thiết yếu và là sở thích của người tiêu dùng. Các công ty dược phẩm: ví dụ  như hãng dược phẩm khổng lồ Novartis của Thụy Sĩ chẳng hạn, những sản phẩm do công ty này sản xuất ra như thuốc bổ Calcium và dầu nong… bán đắt như tôm tươi. Bất kể khách hàng là người lắm tiền nhiều của hay không dư dả lắm, họ đều sẵn sàng mua những sản phẩm như vậy.

Tại sao vậy? Bởi kinh tế ngày một tăng trưởng đã khuyến khích người dân có nhu cầu chăm sóc sức khỏe cao hơn. Đồng hành với sự thịnh vượng kinh tế là xu hướng ngồi làm việc tại chỗ trước màn hành vi tính nhiều hơn. Trẻ em cũng không thoát khỏi xu hướng này. Các nhân tố đó sẽ dẫn đến tình trạng béo phì, tăng huyết áp hay tiểu đường, khiến nhu cầu sử dụng thuốc gia tăng.

Bên cạnh đó, các hãng khác như Coca-Cola hay Yum!… cũng là chủ sở hữu những sản phẩm rất được người tiêu dùng ưa chuộng, và chắc chắn chúng sẽ còn được mua nhiều.

3. Thu nhập chắc chắn và đáng tin cậy, tăng trưởng trong bán hàng và lợi nhuận chính đáng

Tức là trước khi quyết định đầu tư vào cổ phiếu của một công ty, bạn nên xem xét ba vấn đề cơ bản của công ty là: thu nhập; lượng hàng bán ra trên thị trường và lợi nhuận.

- Về thu nhập, bạn có thể sử dụng một số chỉ tiêu sau để đánh giá sự chắc chắn và đáng tin cậy của công ty:

+ Chỉ số thu nhập trên một đơn vị cổ phiếu – EPS (Earning per Share): thu nhập dòng hay lợi nhuận sau thuế có thể được xem xét bằng tổng lợi nhuận hay xét trên một đơn vị cổ phiếu gọi là chỉ số EPS. Một công ty có sự gia tăng về tốc độ tăng trưởng thu nhập khi tốc độ tăng trưởng thu nhập của quý sau cao hơn quý trước. Một cổ phiếu tốt, có tốc độ gia tăng về tăng trưởng thu nhập cao hơn so với ba hay bốn quý trước. Tăng trưởng của chỉ số thu nhập ít nhất là 25% so với cùng quý của năm trước. EPS hàng năm của cổ phiếu tốt ít nhất phải tăng trưởng 25% so với ba năm trước.

Ví dụ: Tập đoàn Johnson & Johnson có thu nhập tăng trong 73 năm liên tiếp, có tốc độ tăng đột biến tiền lãi cổ phần (cổ tức) trong 44 năm liên tiếp, và công khai yết thị thu nhập kiếm được tăng trong 21 năm liên tiếp.Theo bạn, cổ phiếu của tập đoàn này có thực sự hấp dẫn không?

+ Chỉ số thị giá chia cho thu nhập của mỗi cổ phần – P/E là một trong những chỉ số phân tích quan trọng quyết định đầu tư chứng khoán của nhà đầu tư. Thu nhập từ cổ phiếu sẽ có ảnh hưởng quyết định đến giá thị trường của cổ phiếu đó. Hệ số P/E đo lường mốiquan hệ giữa giá thị trường (Market Price – PM) và thua nhập của mỗi cổ phiếu (EPS) và được tính như sau:

P/E= PM/EPS.

Thông thường, nhiều người cho rằng nên chọn mua những cổ phiếu có P/E thấp vì theo họ những cổ phiếu có chỉ số này cao là đắt và không nên mua. Nhưng trên thực tế, những cổ phiếu tốt nhất thường có chỉ số này rất cao.

Hệ số P/E rất có ích cho việc định giá cổ phiếu. Giả sử bạn đang muốn mua một cổ phiếu hiện tại chưa được giao dịch trên thị trường, nhưng chưa biết mua với giá bao nhiêu là hợp lý. Nếu bạn biết thu nhập của công ty này (EPS), bạn có thể lấy nó nhân với chỉ số P/E được công bố trên thị trường giao dịch chứng khoán của nhóm cổ phiếu tương tự như cổ phiếu này, bạn sẽ xác định được giá của cổ phiếu mà bạn muốn mua.

- Về sự tăng trưởng bán hàng: Đây là chỉ tiêu quan trọng nhất để đo lường một công ty có sức mạnh hay không và là nhân tố chính của tăng trưởng. Khi chọn lựa cổ phiếu tốt hãy tìm công ty có tốc độ bán hàng mạnh để làm tiền đề cho tăng trưởng thu nhập. Tiêu chí để xác định công ty có tăng trưởng bán hàng tốt nếu ba quý gần nhất có sự tăng lượng hàng bán lớn hơn hoặc bằng 25% so với quý gần nhất trước đó.

- Về lợi nhuận: có thể đánh giá trên hai chỉ tiêu:

+ Lợi nhuận ròng: đánh giá tỷ lệ chuyển doanh thu thành thu nhập. Trên quan điểm của nhà đầu tư, nên tìm những công ty có sự tăng về tỷ lệ lợi nhuận ròng/doanh thu. Con số này càng lớn thì có nghĩa công ty đang có xu hướng quản lý và các hoạt động khác tốt lên. Tiêu chí để xác định cho chỉ tiêu này là lợi nhuận trước thuế ít nhất đạt 18% doanh thu. Yêu cầu lợi nhuận sau thuế luôn đạt 10% trở lên.

+ Lợi nhuận trên vốn chủ sở hữu (ROE): Hệ số này phản ánh mức thu nhập ròng trên vốn cổ phần của cổ đông.

ROE= Lợi nhuận ròng/Vốn cổ đông hay giá trị tài sản ròng hữu hình.

Hệ số này thường được các nhà đầu tư phân tích để so sánh với các cổ phiếu khác nhau trên thị trường. Thông thường, hệ số thu nhập trên vốn cổ phần càng cao thì các cổ phiếu càng hấp dẫn, vì hệ số này cho thấy cách đánh giá khả năng sinh lời và các tỷ suất lợi nhuận của công ty khi đem so sánh với hệ số thu nhập trên vốn cổ phần của các công ty khác.

4. Chịu sự quản lý và điều hành bởi các nhà lãnh đạo tài ba

Đây là một trong những tiêu chuẩn và dấu hiệu khá quan trọng mà bạn nên tìm hiểu trước khi quyết định đầu tư. Nếu nhà lãnh đạo giỏi, công ty sẽ phát triển đúng hướng và sẽ là yếu tố đảm bảo sự thành công trong đầu tư vào cổ phiếu của bạn. Thậm chí, nếu chẳng may công ty rơi vào tình trạng gay go, trước bờ vực của sự phá sản, nhưng nếu được điều hành và dẫn dắt của một nhà lãnh đạo tài ba, rất có thể nó sẽ vượt qua được khó khăn, quay về đúng hướng.

Richard Parson – Giám đốc điều hành của Time Warner là một trong những nhà lãnh đạo tài giỏi như thế. Ông đã làm được một điều kỳ diệu: giá cổ phiếu của hãng gần như đã quay về mức trước khi rơi vào khủng hoảng, trước khi ông về nắm quyền. Sau cuộc sáp nhập khủng hoảng với AOL trong năm 2001, giá cổ phiếu Time Warner đã rớt tự do. Thế nhưng trong năm 2005, Parson đã dần kéo công việc kinh doanh của hãng truyền thông lớn nhất thế giới này trở về quỹ đạo cũ. Ông đã giải quyết dứt điểm từng vấn đề đau đầu của Time Warner , từ trả bớt nợ, bán bớt các bộ phận làm ăn không hiệu quả cho đến dàn xếp ổn thỏa các các cuộc điều tra liên bang và vụ kiện của các cổ đông.

Bạn có thể tìm hiểu thông tin có ích và ấn tượng về các nhà lãnh đạo giỏi, có uy tín trên các trang web giới thiệu về doanh nghiệp và doanh nhân. Ví dụ, trên trên web www.fool.com, có nhiều tin tức về những nhà lãnh đạo này trên chuyên mục “xác định sự quản lý có hiệu quả” (Identifying effective management) hay “Điều tra về đầu tư” (Investigative Investing).

5. Có lợi thế cạnh tranh nhất định

Trở lại ví dụ của hãng Time Warner và AOL sau khi sáp nhập. Mặc dù trong thời gian đầu, AOL gặp rất nhiều khó khăn, song họ vẫn giữ được nhiều khách hàng trung thành. Tại sao nhiều khách hàng vẫn trung thành với họ? Bất cứ một nhà cung cấp dịch vụ trực tuyến nào cũng muốn cung cấp cho người sử dụng một địa chỉ e-mail miễn phí và lôi kéo khách hàng sử dụng địa chỉ email của mình, chứ không phải của các đối thủ cạnh tranh. Và khi một ai đó đã sử dụng địa chỉ email do hãng của bạn cung cấp, chắc chắn họ sẽ không dễ dàng từ bỏ địa chỉ e-mail của bạn để sử dụng địa chỉ e-mail của một nhà cung cấp khác. Đơn giản là họ sẽ gặp nhiều rắc rối và đau đầu vì thông báo địa chỉ e-mail mới cũng như mất thời gian cập nhật và nhận thư từ từ nhiều địa chỉ e-mail.

Tương tự như vậy, hãng dịch vụ cho thuê phim Netflix của Mỹ là một trong những hãng có tên tuổi và tiên phong trong lĩnh vực cho thuê DVD và bán phim trên mạng internet. Khách hàng có thể thâm nhập vào danh mục các bộ phim mà họ muốn xem và khó có thể từ chối những dịch vụ mà họ cung cấp.

Đó chính là những công ty có một lợi thế cạnh tranh nhất định trên thị trường, mà khi quyết định đầu tư cổ phiếu, bạn có thể xem xét đến chúng.

Sau khi bạn đã xác định được đâu là một công ty mạnh, có triển vọng trên thị trường, bạn quyết định tìm kiếm và mua cổ phiếu của nó với bất cứ giá nào? Đừng làm như vậy. Các công ty chất lượng cao, giá cổ phiếu của họ thường ở mức trung bình. Nếu bạn trả giá cho cổ phiếu của họ quá cao, rất có thể sẽ làm ảnh hưởng đến hoạt động kinh doanh và tổn hại đến thu nhập của họ. Vì vậy, nếu bạn là một người kiên nhẫn, bạn nên chờ đợi thời cơ. Ví dụ: một hãng kinh doanh rất thành công, nhưng gần đây họ bán cổ phiếu với một giá hoàn toàn không quá cao như nhiều người nghĩ. Đó chính là hãng Coca-Cola. Chỉ số P/E của hãng này chỉ xấp xỉ xung quanh 22, thấp hơn mức trung bình trong lịch sử của hãng này.

“Một công ty lớn có giá cổ phiếu không quá cao”, đó chính là một công thức kiếm được nhiều tiền trong đầu tư chứng khoán trong nhiều thập kỷ nay. Bạn nên suy nghĩ về điều này trước khi quyết định mua cổ phiếu của một công ty nào đó.

Tuấn Anh (Dịch từ Motley Fool và tham khảo một số thông tin trên mạng)

stealing your internets which is stealing my time which is stealing your time which is.. wait, what are we stealing again?

EPS Day Two tl;dr: HA HA HA… not a clue

So far it has been going okay. To be honest I am sort of jumbled up, their idea was to essentially throw me into the queue and often ignore me, and it was kind of annoying in a way, because while I know how to speak to a person on a phone, I’m still crippled by the fact that I don’t have a solid understanding of their software (Field-Comm) or any of their usual business practices. For someone like me who is used to simply supporting the end user and less the product, having to juggle both and effectively more of the latter means I am really spending more time setting up the product and doing all the connections and things with that than really supporting the product. Perhaps I misheard someone along the way, or they underestimated the type of calls they receive, but so far it has been all setups and installs and licensing and billing type things. They have a person who does billing things, but I think it is more going after errors and unpaids and not really start-to-finish setups. I suppose in the grand scheme of things it is because they are such a small company, less than 20 people, and if this were a larger operation, there would be many people in a “Sales and Billing” department handling these types of things leaving us to just have to worry about installing and supporting the software, and it is mostly like that now, but having been through a few calls today, a lot of my questions had to do with sales oriented shit like what edition to get, how many licenses, etc. Troublesome.

Everything takes time though, I’m trying to get more of the software down, how it works, the SQL and IIS backends since many errors revolve around that, many other little things, and hopefully nail down how all the installs and shit works, and hopefully I can start establishing patterns and attack plans to get me through the easy ones faster and the tough ones better. Trying not to come out of the second day with a bunch of complaints or expectations, just kinda wish they designed a little better training before tossing me into the fray, I felt like they were kinda irritated at the fact I kept annoying them on how to do stuff like I didn’t know what was going on, I realize they have side projects and such and I’m the guy who is supposed to basically hold up support full-time, but they really need to help work with me here to get me to that point if they want me to slug through calls all day while they do other stuff.

Thanksgiving this week, going to my mother’s during most of the day and Ashlynn’s aunt’s house at night for dessert. As long as I get a lot of turkey and stuffing, it shall be awesome.

Xmas landscape card in 2 slightly different designs, with snowflakes, reindeer, pine trees,… and merry christmas lettered on christmass balls.  See download links further this post. Useful as greetings, announcement or invitation card. Have fun using!

The Bens EP [2003] <- Download

The Bens foi um projeto paralelo relâmpago que reuniu os xarás Ben Kweller, Ben Lee e Ben Folds. A banda gravou um EP homônimo em 2003, que teve suas 3.500 cópias vendidas durante os nove shows que fizeram juntos na The Bens Rock Over Australia Tour. Sem medo de soar pop, a sonoridade das quatro faixas corresponde às expectativas de uma parceria entre os Bens: baladas ao violão, arranjos de piano, algumas guitarras, refrões grudentos e backing vocals entrosados.

Just Pretend
 Stop!

Colored cards in different color designs, useful as personal id card or as background for your designs, website, blog, scrapbook, etc…

Here comes part two of my original writeup for 20 EPs of 2009. To those with minimal math skills and a keen eye to detail I must apologize for a little white lie. There was so much great music this year, that the second part of this article expanded to eleven reviews. I couldn’t leave anyone out and decided to publish them all! So let’s just make it twenty-one and not tell a soul. This isn’t a competition after all. And another quick reminder – the below are listed in alphabetical order by artist. (Here’s part 1 if you missed it)

I’ve been a big fan of Jeff McIlwain, and his Lusine moniker since his 2002 release on Hymen, Iron City. His 2007 album as Lusine Icl (the suffix which, he told me, stands for “intercontinental”), Language Barrier made it to my Best of 2007 list. So it’s no wonder that I had to pick up his new Two Dots single when it was digitally released by Ghostly International this summer. Showcasing the vocals of Vilja Larjosto, McIlwain creates an electronic poppy tune that gets remixed by Dave Pezzner and further reverse-engineered by Jeff himself. As a teaser for his upcoming album, A Certain Distance, released later by Ghostly, I listened to the three tracks over and over, until the phrase “Two Dots” rang in my ears through many sleepless nights. And you know what that means… Be sure to pick up A Certain Distance.

I just can’t get into Mark Pritchard’s entire discography at this moment. Let me just say that his involvement in Harmonic 33 and Global Communication has already changed the landscape of the electronic music scene. In 2008, Pritchard returned to the scene as Harmonic 313 with his dubstep influenced instrumental hip-hop album, When Machines Exceed Human Intelligence, on Warp. But for this EP, it’s the first time that Pritchard uses his real name. There are two tracks on this single put out by Ho Hum Records. The first one, mysteriously titled ?, is a dark ambient brooding piece with a few standout synth notes piercing through the thick chords like ice drops. On the second, The Hologram, Pritchard whips out his staple dark hip-hop beats with a dubstep flava. Pritchard’s style always leaves me thirsty for more of his music, so I’ll always keep a faithful watch on all of his odds and ends. Be sure to also pick up a 12″ single on Huperdub, featuring Om’mas Keith, titled Wind It Up.
– See also HC review of When Machines Exceed Human Intelligence

The CEO of Ableton, Gerhard Behles, should be proud. His old partner in crime behind the Monolake moniker, Robert Henke, is still going strong. This dub infused techno record with spacey pads and solid percussion continues to capture the staple sound of the German underground. This is the newest material since the release of Polygon Cities back in 2006. It is edgier, yet subdued, with the silent claw for dark-steppers. Purely atonal, with a synthetic woodwind hook and a riding minimal low-octave minor chord, the rhythm progresses steadily at 138 bpm, in beat with the Monolake fans’ feet. Torsten Pröfrock contributed a T++ remix as the newest member of Monolake on a separate vinyl. If you’re hungry for more, Monolake has self released quite a few free tracks directly on the label’s site. Also, be sure to check out Monolake’s recently announced new album, Silence, out on Imbalance Computer Music in December.

In April, Ólafur Arnalds set out on a quest to compose and release seven songs in seven days. These tracks were initially distributed via his Twitter account, and when the project ended, it was obvious that this was going to be a hit among his followers and fans of neo-classical music. On Found Songs, gentle piano melodies are complimented by soft strings and lightly sprinkled electronica. The music evokes nostalgia and melancholy. But what’s more important is that it touches your heart. Immediately and permanently. And you end up searching for the rest of this beauty through Arnalds’ previous EP, Variations of Static, and his 2007 full-length debut, Eulogy For Evolution. And you find it there. The seven vignettes on this mini release are accompanied by photos from the Found Songs flickr group, created by fans specifically for this project.  These tracks are still available for free from foundsongs.erasedtapes.com but I recommend that you pick-up a high-quality download,  limited CD, or a beautiful 10″ vinyl directly from Erased Tapes.
– See also HC review of Variations of Static and an article on Ólafur Arnalds

Here’s another great release from the Athens (Greece) based Spectraliquid label that brought us acts like Blackfilm, Subheim, and A Wake A Week. This is the label’s introduction to a sound designer, John Valasis, who goes by the name of Poordream. Influenced by the Zeitgeist movie series, the sound of Immaterial Monarch is apocalyptic in nature, mixing up downtempo, breaks, and melodic IDM. The title track features the famous Mad as Hell sample delivered in its entirety by Howard Beale from his 1976 film,Network. These words always remind me of despair, social slavery, and collapsing reality. The track is remixed by seven artists, coming from all different backgrounds and genres. The second track on the EP, Sound of Consciousness, features an amazing short speech on Spirituality and the Now delivered by Chögyam Trungpa Rinpoche. Accompanied by ambient sweeps and backdrop world beats, this is truly an experience in the now.
– See also HC review of Blackfilm and Subheim’s Approach

God damn it, I love Reso! There are so many flavors of dubstep out there, from melodic to grinding evil, but no one rips it up like Reso. Sharp saw teeth of the bass just ooze nastiness from the darkness of my soul. Alex Melia has been releasing mostly 12″ on a variety of labels, from Pitch Black, to Urban Graffiti to Ranking Records. This year, he returned to Civil Music with a Heavy Arms EP. And it’s everything that I expect from Reso. Pristine production, with heavy beats, and roaring bass that gurgles and stretches from here to your neighbor’s bed. There are four solid tracks on this EP with an additional remix by I.D. The latter collaboration must have worked out very well, since the duo released another three track 12″ on Smokin’ Sessions, titled Shifty. For the lovers of everything bass.
– See also HC review of Reso Live @ The Kinetic Playground

Ever since the reclusive Seattle-based artist only known by the name of The Sight Below has released his debut Glider on Ghostly International, I have become a fan. (OK, I actually know who this is, but I promised not to tell, so if you end up figuring it out from other sources you didn’t hear it from me!) On Murmur EP, The Sight Below returns with his known, perfected and applauded sound. Sweet ambient guitar sweeps flowing through the ether are accompanied by dub minor chords and punctuated pounding four-four kick. The tracks are complimented by two more remixes of No Place For Us by Eluvium and At First Touch by Simon Scott. The sound of ambient-dub-techno will appeal to followers of Yagya, Gas and bvdub. Oh, and if you were lucky enough to grab the super limited clear vinyl with a very special rare remix by Biosphere, consider me a foe. I know where you live, and I’m coming to get it.
– See also HC review of Glider, No Place For Us EP,  and Two and a Half Questions with The Sight Below

When Squarepusher released Just A Souvenir on Warp in 2008, the album received a handful of mixed reviews. I personally enjoyed it, and for those who heard between the notes, the follow up EP, Numbers Lucent, is more than just a treat. The familiar melodies and bass riffs originally explored on the album are now remixed with that Squarepusher flair. Here is the deeper slapping bass, the drilling breaks, some jungle rhythms, 90’s rave minor chords, and even 909 for spice. This is Tom Jenkinson the way you love him. The six tracks totaling 25 minutes on the EP should make it up to all the disappointed fans as well. If you loved the Big Loada, don’t let this EP slip off your radar! For the acoustic side of Jenkinson, make sure you pick up Squarepusher’s Solo Electric Bass 1 released this past August on Warp.
– See also HC review of Just A Souvenir

Leave it to Australia’s Hidden Shoal Records to wrap us in a warm blanket of sonic threads. And this EP by an English ambient drone architect, Stray Ghost, is no exception. Anthony Saggers reconstructs resonant chords through their decomposition and back. Contemplation of space and silence is always at the center, as blurry field recordings move in and out of focus. During the ten minutes of Réminiscences Et Rêves De Beauté, the thick layer of vaporous sound descends from the speakers and drips on the floor. Fans of William Basinski’s The Disintegration Loops would feel right at home. This is the first release in a series of digital-only series, so make sure to grab yours directly from the the label. For more from Stray Ghost, pick up his latest limited edition album, An Avalanche Of Swollen Tongues, from Dead Pilot Records.

The founder and owner of the acclaimed American ambient and experimental label, 12k, releases a limited 7″ transparent vinyl that will make all drone heads drool. The digital edition contains an additional 23 minute Still Mix that in itself is worth obtaining. And on the two title tracks, Taylor Deupree slowly lullabies us with a gentle soundscape evoked by his own playing of e-bow, kalimba, harmonica, tambourine, claves, and an acoustic guitar. A light touch of an effect credited as “Cat Snoring” creates an auditory environment in which you cuddle and drown. This is a beautiful addition to all 12k connoisseurs. Oh, and did you get the Solo Andata release? It’s divine! For another timeless classic, be sure to pick up the 2009 release by Stephan Mathieu and Taylor Deupree titled Transcriptions from Spekk.
– See also HC review of Solo Andata

Love him or hate him, but you can’t let Venetian Snares simply pass in your peripheral vision. He comes at you strong, from every direction, with his insane rhythms that may only make sense when slowed down at a fraction of the original speed, and even then, what are those words that make me uncomfortable in all the wrong places? “Hey horse-teeth girl. I wanna make you make horsey noises.” It’s only Aaron Funk, tweaking it only the way he can, with Horsey Noises on Planet Mu. I can say so much about Funk, but must I really waste my breath on those unexposed to his sound? And are their innocent ears ready for the onslaught? Techno, breakcore, acid… Stir it up and drink it raw. And if there is no heartburn, follow up with Filfth – his last full length on Warp in 2009. And don’t forget Rossz Csillag Alatt Született!!!
– See also HC review of Detrimentalist

Well? Did you make it this far? Find something you like? Drop me a comment on here! Meanwhile I will ponder on covering my favorite compilations of 2009 before we get into the full final Best Of…

Metal finished TFT screen with four different colored wallpapers.

Cosmetic cream in several colors and two designs, als included are some compositions. Included in the archive is one transparent png, ready to use, just cut and paste. See all previews further this post. Have fun using!

This year, Forbes, Business Week and Fortune magazines all have recognized Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) as an outstanding growth company.  Wikipedia mentions six, noteworthy achievements:

- In 2009, CTSH ranked #7 on Forbes’ 25 Fastest Growing Tech Stocks, #31 on BusinessWeek’s Top 50 Companies, #51 on BusinessWeek’s 100 Hottest Tech Companies, #90 on Fortune’s 100 Fastest Growing Companies (seventh consecutive year on the list), #716 on the Fortune 1000, and was also listed on Forbes’ The Global 2000 (no rankings, Software and Services Industry).  [See footnote 1 for URLs]

COMPANY BACKGROUND:

- CTSH is a global information technology, consulting and outsourcing services company headquartered in New Jersey, with some 50 IT or development centers worldwide, and with most of its 62,000 employees in India.

- According to its latest Annual Report, CTSH is organized into four segments and its 2008 revenue was: 46% from financial services (up 28%), 24% from healthcare services (up 36%), 16% from retail/manufacturing/logistics (up 38%), and 14% from communications and other high tech. About 79% of its total revenue came from customers located in North America.

- Morningstar thinks CTSH’s business model provides a competitive advantage because its management is based in the U.S. and key employees are located on-site.  In 2008, Cognizant had some 565 customers (up from 500 in the prior year and 400 two years ago), with 12,000 of its employees based in North and South America and 2,700 in Europe.

- With either Hemscott or S&P data, sales growth has been spectacular averaging more than 47% per year over the last 10, 5 and 3 years, and EPS growth more than 41% over the same periods. 

** Growth has slowed: last year’s annual Sales were 32% and EPS was 25% (Hemscott) or 26% (S&P).

** Growth in Quarter 3 was up a solid 16% Sales and 18% EPS (so far only reported by S&P) while Q2 growth was up 13% Sales and over 34% EPS (both S&P and Hemscott). 

- Value Line’s latest report concluded that CTSH’s stock price has risen over 115% since the start of 2009, and over 15% since its August report, and now offers limited price appreciation over the next 3-5 years.

COMPANY FINANCIALS:

- VL rated Cognizant an “A” for Financial Strength with no debt and almost $1 B in cash assets.  Morningstar said much the same.

- The one-click Annual Report spreadsheet by Bob Adams gave Cognizant’s 2008 A.R. a 44 out of 100 with 9 Bullish and 6 Bearish results:

** The 9 Bullish or good things included: Sales are increasing and are increasing faster than related costs, no long-term debt, and gross profit margin is growing;

** The 6 Bearish or not-so-goods included: Accounts Receivable are increasing, free cash flow growth is less than sales growth, and shares outstanding are increasing.

DISCUSSION:

The following table compares the SSG by BudS, which I got from Better Investing’s First Cut page, with two of mine and with Take Stock.  The only difference between my two SSGs is that Armin-1 uses Hemscott-Morningstar data from the StockCentral website (like Bud did) while Armin-2 uses S&P data from the BI website.

After the table, I discuss issues identified by the comparison and, once again, ask some questions that I hope you’ll respond to (there are no “right” answers).

Data Differences:

- CTSH ended its last quarter on 9-30-09, but that data is only reported by S&P at this time.  This doesn’t happen often, but is something to be aware of because the choice of SSG data from either Hemscott or S&P can make a noticeable difference whenever we project growth from the last quarter (as I usually do).

- My SSGs were done 5 weeks after Bud’s and, in the interim, CTSH’s price rose 15% to a 52-week high.  I hope he bought it below $40 per share.

Estimating Future EPS Growth:

(A) Bud estimated 15.00% EPS growth and his First Cut write-up explained that he was being conservative “since few companies average over 15% over the long haul.”

** CTSH is, in fact, one of those exceptional companies and its historic EPS growth has averaged much more than 15% over the long haul: 40.5% over the last ten years; 42.5% over the last five; 32.8% over the last three; and 25.0% last year, it’s lowest ever (all with Hemscott data which Bud used).

(B) The seven analysts I always check for every SSG were estimating long-term EPS at an average of 20.03% with Value Line high at 28.50% and FactSet via Morningstar low at 17.30%.  Reuters and FactSet CallStreet via CNNMoney were both 18.00%, Zacks was 18.14%, S&P was 20.00%, and Thomson-Reuters via Yahoo Finance was 20.30%.

** The consensus of the 8 analysts at FactSet CallStreet ranged from a high of 20.0% to a low of 12.0% as did the 9 analysts at Reuters.  And, without Value Line’s estimate of 28.50%, which looks like an outlier to me and which didn’t change in its 11-20 report, the average of the six other analysts dropped to 18.62%. That average less 1 Standard Deviation equals 17.40% and less 2 SDs = 16.18%.

** I projected 16.00% EPS growth based on the analyst average without VL less 2 SDs which, I think, is a conservative approach based on reason.  My 16% estimate is not much different than Bud’s 15%, but at least I’m relying on a rational method, not my gut feelings, and also learned what’s unduly conservative or excessive.  For example, I thought the 12.0% low estimates at FactSet Call Street and at Reuters were too low by comparison.

** For how I estimate EPS for all my SSGs, see: Estimating EPS

 (C) Take Stock used 20.00% EPS which is the highest it will ever estimate for any company no matter how high its actual growth.  In this regard, Take Stock is like Bud as both set (arbitrary) limits on future growth that are unrelated to the company’s actual growth.  

Forecast High and Low PEs:

(A) Bud did not explain, but his 33.3 Forecast High PE seems to be based on eliminating the three years 2004-2006 and his 22.4 Forecast Low PE on eliminating the 2 years 2004-2005. 

(B) I saw that CTSH’s High and Low PEs were trending down and used 2008, the lowest in the last five years, as my Forecast High and Low PEs (25.5 and 10.2).

(C) Take Stock used 30.0 as its Forecast High PE, isn’t designed to look for trends, and always uses a two-step methodology:

** TS first eliminates the five highest High PEs in the last 10 years and averages the rest.  It then limits High PEs to 1.5 times its estimated EPS growth or, in this case, to 30.0 (1.5 x 20.00 = 30.0) which is the maximum it will ever forecast no matter how high the company’s actual PEs.  A 30.0 High PE is equivalent to a 1.5 High PEG maximum.

** TS used 14.7 as its Forecast Low PE which came from eliminating the five highest Low PEs in the last 10 years and averaging the rest. If that average was more than 20.0 (not the case here), TS would limit the Low PE to a Low PEG of 1.0 max (1.0 x 20.00 = 20.0).

Forecast High Price:

(A) With his 15.00% estimated EPS and 33.3 High PE, Bud got $107.60 for his Forecast High Price which was a whopping 65% greater than the high end of Value Line’s estimated $40-65 High Price on 8-21-09 and 43% greater than VL’s updated $50-75 estimate on 11-20-09.

** That’s way too high for me and I never want to substantially exceed VL’s estimate; see: Determining What’s Reasonable and What’s Not: An Update

(B) With my 16.00% estimated EPS and 25.5 High PE, I got $85.90 for my Forecast High Price which was 32% greater than VL (and only 14.5% greater than VL’s updated estimate).

** 32% is usually too high for me and I prefer to be no more than 20-25% higher than VL.  Because both of my SSGs did not statisfy the Buy criteria (UD >3.0 and TR >15%), there was no point to lower my judgments.

(C) With its 20.00% estimated EPS and 30.0 High PE, Take Stock got $107.70 for its Forecast High Price which, like Bud, was also a whopping 65% greater than the high end of Value Line’s estimated High Price of $40-65 and also 43% greater than VL’s updated estimate.

Forecast Low Price:

(A) Bud inexplicably reduced his Forecast Low EPS to 2007’s $1.15 and then disregarded the Low EPS x Low PE option, which is most appropriate for growth companies like CTSH, and decided to use $17.30 which he also did not explain.

(B) & (C) Take Stock and I used the same method (Low PE x Low EPS), but got much different results because TS used a much higher Low PE than I did (17.7 vs 10.2).

Quality:

(A) Bud and Armin-1 used Hemscott-Morningstar data which does not provide any Quality rating.

(B) Armin-2 used S&P data and gave Cognizant a B+ Quality rating which ranked fourth out of its 8 ratings.

(C) Although Take Stock gave Cognizant high marks for its recent and historic growth, CTSH’s downtrend in PTPM resulted in an overall Quality rating of 3.2 which is unacceptable.  TS requires a 3.4 minimum to pass muster and a 6.7 is desired.

Pretax-Profit Margin (PTPM) and Return on Equity (ROE):

-  Cognizant’s five-year average PTPM of 19.8% is trending down which usually is a red-flag warning sign.  However, CTSH is better than its Industry Average of 16.7% (Business Software & Services, Hemscott data) and ranks 14^th out of 135 companies.

- Cognizant’s five-year average ROE of 21.5% is also trending down.  But, that is far less than CTSH’s industry average of 78.3% which is substantially distorted by 5 companies with ROEs over 100%.  Nevertheless, CTSH still ranks 15^th out of 135 despite the distorted average.

-  For more on using Industry Information to inform our SSGs, see: Investigating Industry Info

Questions:

(1) Are you bothered by Cognizant’s PTPM and ROE downtrends, or does my assessment satisfy you that they are not red-flag warning signs of potential trouble?  If you’re not satisfied, what else would you want to look at??

(2) CTSH has excellent Sales and EPS growth (both historic and expected), but does not satisfy the SSG’s minimum BUY criteria of a 15.00% Total Return and a 3.0 Upside/Downside Ratio. 

At this time, would you buy Cognizant based on my SSG with its 13.9% TR and 1.4 U/D? Would you have bought it based on Bud’s SSG with a 22.2% TR and a 3.1 U/D??

I like CTSH a lot and have followed it for several years; see:  Two Small Company Stocks: Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) and Jack Henry and Associates (JKHY), September 5, 2006 (CTSH is no longer considered a small company).

- Armin

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Footnote 1:

Forbes 25 Fastest Growing Tech Stocks (#7 in 2009),  http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0216/048b.html

BusinessWeek’s Top 50 Companies (#31 in 2009),   http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/03/0326_bw50/21.htm

BusinessWeek’s Hottest Tech Companies in 2009 (# 51),  http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/05/0521_IT_100/52.htm

Fortune 100 Fastest Growing Companies (seventh consecutive year, #90 in 2009),  http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortunefastestgrowing/2009/snapshots/90.html

Fortune 1000 (#716 in 2009),  http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2009/full_list/701_800.html

Forbes The Global 2000 (no rankings, 2009 Software & Services Industry) , http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/global-09_The-Global-2000-Software-Services_9Rank.html

Three Xmas Bells card in six different designs.

Reindeer christmas snow card with reindeer silhouette and snowflakes in two different designs. Useful as invitation or greetings card. See previews and download links further this post. Have fun using!