In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After 12 weeks, 110 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including, finally, Virginia Tech.

Now that we’re in the final full week of the regular season, we can see the math really cutting away at some teams that were alive last week. This is because TCU cannot finish with more than one loss, and either Alabama will finish as the best-ranked team with two losses, or Auburn will not lose two games. So, that gets rid of Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. By the same logic, Michigan State, which is just marginally ahead of Alabama in the BCS, would almost certainly be passed by the Crimson Tide were it to knock off the No. 2 team in the country.

Here’s what needs to happen for the 10 remaining teams to make the title game:

1. Oregon

• Win out

This is obviously the simplest way to get there. Oregon, unlike Auburn in my opinion, would have a hard time getting to the title game with one loss.

2. Auburn

• Win out

AU can probably lose to Alabama and still have a shot if Oregon were to lose.

3. TCU

• Beat New Mexico
• Oregon or Auburn lose
• Probably Boise State lose, as well.

It doesn’t look good for TCU’s chances to hold off Boise for the coveted third slot, which would come into play with an Oregon or Auburn loss.

4. Boise State

• Win out
• Oregon or Auburn lose

Boise can be No. 2 by week’s end if Alabama takes out Auburn.

5. LSU

• Beat Arkansas
• Oregon lose
• Auburn lose twice
• Voters become scared of BSU-TCU title game (or one of those teams loses)

It’s probably more likely that voters are scared of BSU and TCU in the title game than that either of those teams loses.

6. Stanford

• Beat Oregon State
• Oregon lose twice
• Auburn lose to South Carolina
• LSU lose to Arkansas
• TCU or Boise State lose
• Oklahoma State lose

The Cardinal basically need everyone ahead of them to lose (including Oregon twice and Auburn to USC, which might slip them behind Stanford), as well as Oklahoma State behind them. OSU would probably pass Stanford with wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska.

7. Wisconsin

• Beat Northwestern
• Oregon lose twice
• Auburn lose twice
• LSU lose to Arkansas
• TCU or Boise State lose
• Stanford lose to Oregon State
• Oklahoma State lose

The Badgers just need five of the six teams ahead of them—who have combined for two losses all year—to lose seven games in the next 10 days.

8. Ohio State

• Beat Michigan
• Oregon lose twice
• Auburn lose twice
• LSU lose to Arkansas
• TCU or Boise State lose
• Stanford lose to Oregon State
• Wisconsin lose to Northwestern
• Oklahoma State lose

The Buckeyes need what Wisconsin needs, plus a Badgers’ loss to Northwestern.

9. Oklahoma State

• Beat Oklahoma and Nebraska
• Oregon lose twice
• Auburn lose twice
• LSU lose to Arkansas
• TCU or Boise State lose

This is the OSU with a  better shot at the title game, but the Pokes still need two losses from Oregon and Auburn each.

10. Alabama

• Beat Auburn
• Auburn lose to South Carolina
• Oregon lose twice
• TCU lose to New Mexico
• Boise State win out
• LSU lose to Arkansas
• Oklahoma State lose
• Stanford lose to Oregon State
• Wisconsin lose to Northwestern
• Ohio State lose to Michigan

Now this takes some finagling. Alabama’s best chance is probably with Boise State at No. 1 and TCU and Michigan State as the only one-loss teams. Those are the only one-loss teams the Tide could catch.

So, The Games That Mean Something This Week:

Auburn at Alabama

Arizona at Oregon

Boise State at Nevada

Michigan at Ohio State

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Northwestern at Wisconsin

LSU at Arkansas

Oregon State at Stanford

TCU at New Mexico

***

And so the math for this week:

54 Week 13 Games Involving FBS Teams

45 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

9 Week 13 Games Count

16.7% of Week 13 Games Count

***

After 12 weeks:

699 Games Played

353 Counted

50.5% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

74 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

13 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

17.6% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After 11 weeks, 106 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including Bizarro Heisman Trophy candidate Ricky Stanzi and Iowa. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech). At this point, I feel very confident saying Auburn is the only school on this list that can conceivably make the title game even after a loss in the final three weeks.

Auburn

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Alabama runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State, TCU, and LSU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Alabama

Boise State

LSU

Michigan State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Stanford

TCU

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours:

Iowa

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona (10; Pac-10 team with two losses)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)

Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida State (10; ACC team with two losses)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa (11; top-10 BCS team with three losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State (9; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Missouri (10; Big 12 team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern (9; Big Ten team with two losses)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas (9; preseason Top 10 team with three losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah (10; MWC with a loss)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia (9; Big East team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

56 Week 12 Games Involving FBS Teams

45 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

11 Week 12 Games Count

19.6% of Week 11 Games Count

We can even be real specific. Here are the 11 games that matter this week:

Georgia State at Alabama (won by the Tide)

Fresno State at Boise State (Broncos survived)

Ohio State at Iowa

Oklahoma at Baylor

Nebraska at Texas A&M

Virginia Tech at Miami

Wisconsin at Michigan

Purdue at Michigan State

Oklahoma State at Kansas

Stanford at California

Mississippi at LSU

***

After 11 weeks:

643 Games Played

339 Counted

52.7% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

130 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

29 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

22.3% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After 10 weeks, 105 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including up-until-recently unbeaten Utah. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech).

Alabama

Auburn

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Iowa runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Boise State

Iowa

LSU

Michigan State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Stanford

TCU

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours:

Arizona

Missouri

Utah

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona (10; Pac-10 team with two losses)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida State (10; ACC team with two losses)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State (9; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Missouri (10; Big 12 team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern (9; Big Ten team with two losses)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas (9; preseason Top 10 team with three losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah (10; MWC with a loss)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia (9; Big East team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

56 Week 11 Games Involving FBS Teams

42 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

14 Week 11 Games Count

25.0% of Week 11 Games Count

One in every four! That’s pretty much “every game”!

We can even be real specific. Here are the 14 games that matter this week:

Boise State at Idaho (Broncos survived…barely)

Mississippi State at Alabama

Penn State at Ohio State

Oklahoma State at Texas

Texas Tech at Oklahoma

Kansas at Nebraska

Iowa at Northwestern

Virginia Tech at North Carolina

Oregon at California

Indiana at Wisconsin

Georgia at Auburn

Stanford at Arizona State

San Diego State at TCU

Louisiana-Monroe at LSU

***

After 10 weeks:

587 Games Played

325 Counted

55.4% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

186 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

44 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

23.7% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

After nine weeks, 102 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including old standby Florida State. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech).

Alabama

Auburn

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Arizona runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Arizona

Boise State

Iowa

LSU

Michigan State

Missouri

Oklahoma State

Stanford

TCU

Utah

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours:

Florida State

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida State (10; ACC team with two losses)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State (9; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern (9; Big Ten team with two losses)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas (9; preseason Top 10 team with three losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia (9; Big East team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

55 Week 10 Games Involving FBS Teams

41 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

14 Week 10 Games Count

25.5% of Week 10 Games Count

More than one in every four!

We can even be real specific. Here are the 14 games that matter this week, including two elimination contests:

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (Hokies survived)

Oklahoma at Texas A&M

Nebraska at Iowa State

Iowa at Indiana

Washington at Oregon

Wisconsin at Purdue

Chattanooga at Auburn

Arizona at Stanford (ELIMINATION GAME, but they’re both kinda eliminated anyway)

Minnesota at Michigan State

Baylor at Oklahoma State

Missouri at Texas Tech

Hawaii at Boise State

TCU at Utah (ELIMINATION GAME, but they’re both kinda eliminated anyway)

Alabama at LSU

***

After nine weeks:

532 Games Played

311 Counted

58.5% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

241 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

65 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

27.0% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

After eight weeks, 101 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including pre-season No. 5 Texas. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses.

Alabama

Auburn

Michigan State

Missouri

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Arizona runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Arizona

Boise State

Florida State

Iowa

LSU

Oklahoma State

Stanford

TCU

Utah

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours:

Kansas State

Northwestern

Texas

West Virginia

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State (9; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern (9; Big Ten team with two losses)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas (9; preseason Top 10 team with three losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia (9; Big East team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

55 Week 9 Games Involving FBS Teams

42 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

13 Week 9 Games Count

23.6% of Week 9 Games Count

One in every four! Almost.

We can even be real specific. Here are the baker’s dozen of games that matter this week:

Louisiana Tech at Boise State (Broncos already won)

Florida State at NC State (Noles already lost)

Colorado at Oklahoma

Missouri at Nebraska

Michigan State at Iowa

Auburn at Mississippi

Arizona at UCLA

Stanford at Washington

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Utah at Air Force

Ohio State at Minnesota

Oregon at USC

TCU at UNLV

***

After eight weeks:

477 Games Played

298 Counted

62.5% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

296 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

82 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

27.7% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

Via The War Eagle Reader, Tim's Auburn Blog of Choice

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After seven weeks, 98 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including pre-season No. 4 Florida. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses.

Alabama

Auburn

Iowa

LSU

Michigan State

Missouri

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Kansas State runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Arizona

Boise State

Florida State

Kansas State

Stanford

TCU

Texas

Utah

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours (sorry about missing last week):

Arkansas

Baylor

Colorado

Florida

Illinois

Indiana

Maryland

Miami

Michigan

NC State

Nevada

South Carolina

South Florida

Syracuse

Texas A&M

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

51 Week 6 Games Involving FBS Teams

35 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

16 Week 6 Games Count

31.4% of Week 6 Games Count

Yep, two weeks after crawling under the 50% barrier for the first time, fewer than one-third of the games matter.

***

After seven weeks:

426 Games Played

282 Counted

66.2% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

347 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

112 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

32.3% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After five weeks, 82 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including JoePa’s Nittany Lions. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss.

Alabama

Arizona

Auburn

Florida

Iowa

Kansas State (who are actually in the category below this after Thursday night’s loss)

LSU

Michigan

Michigan State

Missouri

Nebraska

Northwestern

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Baylor and Syracuse run the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Arkansas

Baylor

Boise State

Colorado

Florida State

Illinois

Indiana

Maryland

Miami

NC State

Nevada

South Carolina

South Florida

Stanford

Syracuse

TCU

Texas

Texas A&M

Utah

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Wisconsin

That Sets Up This Week’s Elimination Games:

Florida State at Miami

Arkansas v. Texas A&M

Syracuse at South Florida

(I know. When @insidetheBCS talks about huge regular-season games, these are the ones he means.)

Teams Who Are Already Eliminated (week and why):

Air Force (eliminated before Week 4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC  (1; ineligible)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

55 Week 6 Games Involving FBS Teams

30 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

25 Week 6 Games Count

45.5% of Week 6 Games Count

Yep, for the first time this season, only six weeks in, fewer than 50% of the games matter.

***

After five weeks:

316 Games Played

233 Counted

73.7% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

457 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

219 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

47.9% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After four weeks, 76 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including a preseason Top 15 team in Pittsburgh:

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Alabama

Arizona

Arizona State

Arkansas

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Auburn

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor

Boise State

Boston College

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson
Florida State

Colorado

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Fresno State

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

LSU

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan

Michigan State

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Missouri

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State

Nebraska

Nevada

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Oregon

Oregon State

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Purdue

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina

South Florida

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Stanford

Syracuse

TCU

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wisconsin

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

52 Week 5 Games Involving FBS Teams

26 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

26 Week 3 Games Count

50.0% of Week 3 Games Count

***

After four weeks:

264 Games Played

207 Counted

78.4% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

509 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

269 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

52.8% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After three weeks, the carnage is settling in, with 66 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including my precious Blue Devils:

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Alabama

Arizona

Arizona State

Arkansas

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Auburn

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor

Boise State

Boston College

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson
Florida State

Colorado

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Fresno State

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

LSU

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan

Michigan State

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Missouri

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State

Nebraska

Nevada

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Oregon

Oregon State

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Purdue

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina

South Florida

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Stanford

Syracuse

TCU

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wisconsin

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

58 Week 4 Games Involving FBS Teams

22 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

36 Week 3 Games Count

62.1% of Week 3 Games Count

***

After three weeks:

206 Games Played

171 Counted

83.0% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

567 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

338 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

59.6% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After two weeks, 47 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria). Congratulations to UCLA and Vanderbilt for being the first two BCS teams to be eliminated from the title picture:

Air Force
Akron (eliminated before Week 1; MAC team)
Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas
Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)
Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)
Auburn
Ball State (1; MAC team)
Baylor
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green (1; MAC team)
Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)
Buffalo (1; MAC team)
California
Central Michigan (1; MAC team)
Cincinnati
Clemson
Florida State
Colorado
Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)
Connecticut
Duke
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)
Florida
Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)
Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)
Houston
Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kent State (1; MAC team)
Kentucky
Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)
Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)
Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)
Louisville
LSU
Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)
Maryland
Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)
Miami
Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)
Michigan
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)
Minnesota
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)
NC State
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)
New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)
North Carolina
North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)
Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio (1; MAC team)
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)
Rutgers
San Diego State
San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)
SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)
Stanford
Syracuse
TCU
Temple (1; MAC team)
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Toledo (1; MAC team)
Troy (1; Sun Belt team)
Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)
Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)
UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)
UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)
UCLA (PAC-10 team with two losses)
UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)
USC
Utah
Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)
UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)
Vanderbilt (SEC team with two losses)
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
West Virginia
Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)
Western Michigan (1; MAC team)
Wisconsin
Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

58 Week 3 Games Involving FBS Teams

13 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

45 Week 3 Games Count

77.6% of Week 3 Games Count

***

After two weeks:

148 Games Played

132 Counted

89.2% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

625 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

451 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

72.1% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After one week, 36 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria):

Air Force

Akron (eliminated before Week 1; MAC team)

Alabama

Arizona

Arizona State

Arkansas

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army

Auburn

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor

Boise State

Boston College

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati

Clemson
Florida State

Colorado

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut

Duke

East Carolina

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Fresno State

Georgia

Georgia Tech

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville

LSU

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan

Michigan State

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Missouri

Navy (2; non-Notre Dame independent with a loss)

NC State

Nebraska

Nevada

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State

North Carolina

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern

Notre Dame

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Oregon

Oregon State

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Purdue

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers

San Diego State

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina

South Florida

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Stanford

Syracuse

TCU

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF

UCLA

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC

Utah

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP

Vanderbilt

Virginia

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Washington

Washington State

West Virginia

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wisconsin

Wyoming

***

And so the math for this week:

70 Week 2 Games Involving FBS Teams

15 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

55 Week 2 Games Count

78.6% of Week 2 Games Count

***

After one week:

78 Games Played

71 Counted

91.0% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

695 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

561 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

80.7% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

College football has long billed itself as the sport of the regular season. Opponents of a playoff will always cite, as the main reason for the status quo, that every game counts, and that this is what makes college football unique.

But how many games actually do count? One of the points I made in last season’s attack on the BCS was that the system is inherently flawed because certain games do not–indeed, cannot–count. Many teams cannot control their own destiny. These are games that, regardless of what happens before or after them, will have no bearing on the national championship picture.

And so this season, I decided to try a little experiment. Each week, I will track how many games count; that is, how many games can possibly impact the national championship landscape. The criteria for games that do not count include the following:

• Conference Games in the Mid-American and Sun Belt conferences
  • No team from either the MAC or the Sun Belt has ever appeared in a BCS game, and none have come particularly close. Even when Ball State was undefeated into the MAC Championship in 2008, the Cardinals only rose to No. 12 in the BCS and had zero chance of making the title game. As for the Sun Belt, well, name a team from the Sun Belt. QED.

• Games between the MAC and Sun Belt

• Games between a MAC/Sun Belt team and an FCS team

• Games between teams with at least one loss in the Mountain West, WAC, and Conference-USA
  • The Mountain West and WAC have never placed a team in the BCS title game. Their “BCS Busters” have all had undefeated regular seasons. No team that does not finish undefeated in either of these conferences can make the title game. The same is obviously true of Conference-USA, which has never had a team play in a BCS game.

• Games between major conference teams with at least three losses
  • I don’t think it’s mathematically possible for a team with three losses to play for the BCS Championship, and it has never come close to happening.

• Games between major conference teams that were not ranked in the preseason top 10 with at least two losses (so everyone except Alabama, Ohio State, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Nebraska and Virginia Tech).
  • We all remember that LSU infamously won the national championship with two losses in 2007. As unlikely as it is for a team to make it to the national championship with two losses, it is impossible for a team that starts the season outside the top 10 to do it. It’s probably impossible for a team outside the top two to do it, but I’m being cautious here.

Even with these criteria, I think I’m being fairly lenient here. I considered cutting all games in the WAC that don’t involve Boise State or all Mountain West games that don’t include TCU, BYU, or Utah. I was very close to cutting all of Conference-USA, and independent Navy.* I was too lazy to figure out the maximum number of games that could fit my criteria later on in the season based on the facts that teams play each other, one team loses every game, and so a certain number of teams MUST have the requisite number of losses by a certain point.**

*That’s right. I’m so lenient that, as of right now, I’m considering Army-Navy a game that could possibly have national championship implications.

**I probably have not expressed this as clearly as possible. What I mean to say is that, as of right now, all eight games involving SEC teams on Thanksgiving weekend count, because any of those 12 SEC teams could be in the national title hunt. But there’s NO WAY that ALL 12 are. Because they play most of their games against each other, there is bound to be at least one SEC game that weekend that doesn’t count based on my listed criteria. They can’t all have two losses or fewer. Clearer?

I, for one, don’t even think Juror No. 8 can argue that any of the teams I count out can possibly make the BCS championship.*

*Streak of posts referencing 12 Angry Men: 2.

That’s the explanation. Now let’s put this thing in motion. For Week 1,* the only criteria that can kick in are Nos. 2 and 3: Games involving only MAC, Sun Belt, or FCS teams.

*I should point out that I did all these calculations before Thursday’s openers, and so the results of any of the games so far this season have had no impact on these numbers.

78 Week 1 Games Involving FBS Teams

6 Games Between a MAC Team and an FCS Team

1 Game Between a MAC Team and a Sun Belt Team

71 Week 1 Games Count

91% of Week 1 Games Count

If we extend the top three criteria to all 15 weeks of the season:

773 Games Involving FBS Teams in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

10 Games Between a MAC Team and an FCS Team

1 Game Between a Sun Belt Team and an FCS Team

2 Games Between a MAC Team and a Sun Belt Team

52 Games Between MAC Teams

37 Games Between Sun Belt Teams

671 Games in 2010 Season Count

86.8% of Games in 2010 Season Count

This means that, before a single game is played, 102 of the 773 games this season simply don’t count (because they can’t count; it’s not possible for them to count). This is more than you can say about any professional season or of the college basketball season. But sure, every game counts.