There are many different ways to play.  You could play in a large tournament.  You could play in a 50/50 league.  You can play heads up or you can play in a small tournament.  Realize that the site you are playing on will take ten percent of the purse.  It is tough to make money in head to head match ups.  You would have to win 60% of the time to make a little money. That means if you played heads up and bet 5$ 20 times you would have to win 12 of those match ups just to make a little money.  If you did play 20 times at 5$ a pop and you won 12 of the match ups you would make a whopping $8 profit.  I do not really like the heads up play.  You could play 50/50 tournaments.  In those you have to finish in the top half of the field to win.  Those tournaments are a little easier to win but again just like head to head you would have to do it 60% of the time just to make a little money.  Large tournaments give you the potential to make a lot of money but it is very tough to place and make money.  I play the occasional large tournament but do not make a habit of it cause it is tough to place in the money.  My favorite thing to play is three man tournaments.  When you play a three man tournament you have the opportunity to more than double your money and all that you have to do is beat two others.  If you bet $5 20 times in a three man tournament you would only have to win 40% of the time to make money.  You play the twenty times at 5 dollars and win eight times and you would make $8 dollars profit.  I have had good success in the three man tournaments.  If you plan on making money in daily fantasy I would suggest to go that route.

Every site is different.  Some sites you use two starting pitchers, some you use three and some just one.  If you are just starting out with daily fantasy I suggest just going with the one starter simplify things to start.  Make sure you know the rules and scoring.  That could change your strategy depending on what site you play.  Build your team around pitching.  Pitching is the most predictable thing in fantasy baseball from night to night.  If your pitcher performs well then your team will perform well.  Make sure you get a strikeout pitcher.  Each strikeout is worth at least a point on every site.  That can add up fast let me throw a couple of stat lines at you from the other night.  Scott Diamond threw 7 innings with 0 earned runs, 2 strikeouts and got the win.  That was worth a total of 14 points on one of the more popular daily sites.  That was a great start for Diamond but only having 2 strikeouts does not bolster you score.  Now lets look at C.J. Wilson’s numbers from the other night.  6 innings, 2 earned runs, 12 strikeouts and he did not get the win.  That was worth a total of 16 points.  I would say just make sure you have a pitcher that is capable of getting strikeouts.  Wins are worth a lot of points but are very tough to predict.  You can predict strikeouts somewhat, whether it be the team a pitcher is facing that strikes out a lot or having a strikeout pitcher.

I want to talk a little bit about large tournaments.  If you do play large tournaments you are going to need a huge score to win.  With that in mind you better have a pitcher with high upside.  Build around your pitcher.  I will say it again get a strikeout pitcher that has a good chance at a win.  Tournaments are a different beast you have to go with high upside players.  In a head to head sometimes you pick a super cheap player at a position and kind of punt the position.  In a tournament you can not do that.  You have to have upside at every position.  Go big or go home when it comes to tournaments.

Now lets talk about winning the big money cash flow.  Again I suggest the three man tournaments.  You will not get rich quick but you will make the money in due time.  Below I have listed things I look into every day to give myself the best chance to win.

• Weather- If a game gets rained out the player will do you no good.  If there is a significant chance of weather affecting a game I just stay away from it.  There are plenty of options every night.  Wind can be a factor too.  There are websites that will tell you which way the wind is blowing in a stadium.  That is important to as we all know wind blowing out at Wrigley could mean a 275 foot fly ball turning into a home run.  I think a lot of daily players forget to look at the wind in ball parks.
• Batter vs. pitcher stats- The history of  a batter vs. a certain pitcher rarely lies.  Check the stats and players with good splits deserve a spot in your line up.  Make sure you check the pitchers too.  If a opposing line up has bad splits versus a starting pitcher that would make the pitcher a great play.  Remember extra base hits are huge so make sure to check OPS when looking at batter verse pitchers.
• Look for lefty versus righty match ups and vise versa- Some players just kill pitchers that throw from the opposite side.  For instance Paul Goldschmidt kills left handers.  Whenever he faces lefties he is a good play.  Keep your eyes out for match ups like that and exploit them.
• Stick with the hot players- If a player is on a hot streak ride them out.   There can be all of the stats in the world saying a player will do good or bad but if they are hot or cold that is the most important stat of all.  Ride the hot bats or pitchers and they will pay off and stay away from the cold players.
• Check the line ups before the game- You want to make sure that your players are in the line up and not riding the pine.  This is also an opportunity to check to see what back ups are in the line up.  They could turn into great value plays for the night if one of the before mentioned strategies applies to them.
• Realize what ball park a player in playing in- Know whether a park is a hitters or pitchers park and play the players accordingly.  I would not let this be a huge factor but if you are trying to decide between two players pick the one with the better park.
• Check Vegas over/under- Vegas is hardly ever wrong.  Look for high over/unders and play hitters from that game.  Also look for low over/unders and play pitchers in that game.  Let Vegas help you win money.

I know it is a lot of information to take in.  That is why daily fantasy baseball is so tough.  Remember you might not win right off the bat. It will take time to learn the trade but follow my strategies, do your research and you will eventually win consistently.  Remember if you have any questions hit me up on twitter @Travis_Groth.

-Stroke survivor who ran 2005 LA Marathon

And I guess that really is what attracts me to hitting the pavement or trails. I love to push my limits. When my body wants to stop, my mind can push it to go a little further. I relish this. It is a mental battle out there on the long race courses.

I am just getting going on my racing journey having completed my first two half marathons (Battleship Half Marathon and RunRaleigh Half Marathon) in the last six months, but I cannot wait for the miles that lay ahead. I have a lifetime of a quality running journey right before me…it is a marathon, not a sprint.

Moving on, I don’t know if any of you play Fantasy Baseball, but man, it has been kicking my butt for the last few years. Like many of you, I stuck the fantasy sports periphery for most of my young life. And that means reserving my fantasy career to football only. And now I know why.

Why do I keep doing this to myself? As of right now, I reside in last place in my league. It is downright sickening. I consider myself to know a fair amount about sports. But the day-to-day operations necessary to pull out wins in these fantasy baseball leagues is strenuous. I guess I need to treat it like a part-time job?

And now, as promised…a little sporting news on this beautiful, sun-splattered Thursday afternoon:

UNC Baseball:The Diamond Heels have proven to be the most superior squad in the nation. Having just wrapped up back-to-back wins against James Madison this week, UNC will travel down to Atlanta for a series with the upstart Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Tar Heels need to keep sharp and focused as the ACC Baseball Tournament is quickly approaching. It will be held at beautiful Durham Bulls Athletic Park so get on out, grab a hot dog and peanuts, and cheer on your favorite ACC team (and watch the Tar Heels sweep through the tourney haha).

NBA Playoffs still plugging along:It seems a bit wide open this year. I guess if you throw out the Heat…but I am going to be honest with you–this year’s postseason just doesn’t get me pumped up, at all. The NBA regular season never does, but the playoffs usually perk me up. Not this year, however. Maybe it is because we all think it may be a foregone conclusion on a Heat championship or maybe it is due to all the key injuries to some title contenders? I don’t know. But I am not going to try to manufacture any excitement here for my readers. Bottom line: The intrigue is nowhere to be found.

Exciting Tar Heel Football News: This is a border state rivalry series that is long overdue. And what is better, it will be a neutral site game in my hometown, Charlotte, starting in 2015. I have already marked my calendar…http://www.goheels.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=3350&ATCLID=207599561

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND:

-NCAA Opener for #5 UNC Lax: 12pm. Saturday. Chapel Hill.

-The Players: Considered the 5th major in most golfing circles

http://espn.go.com/golf/story/_/id/9254435/the-players-championship-brings-elite-together-

golf

And just in case you feel inspired to break out your running shoes anytime soon, here is a NC race calendar–pick one out and go for that PR or just have a blast with your friends!

Cheers,

Oakes

Adds:

Stats and info compiled from MLB.com and Frangraphs

With a month in the books, values are starting to become fixated around the league. However, now is also one of the best times to make trades and move your team up the standings while you still have time. We at RotoAnalysis are trying to help you set those trade values of yours and help you set up your team to succeed as the summer drags along. Last week we focused on hitters, and this week we decided to take on some pitchers.

READ: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH HITTERS FROM ROTOANALYSIS

Buy Low:

David Price, Rays SP

While this is an obvious name, we just wanted to stress how important it is not to give up on Price. He’s been pitching very similarly to recent years but seems to have hit a patch of bad luck in his first few starts. His Home Run per Fly Ball rate (HR/FB) is more than double his career rate – while he really should have let up four homers, so far he has let up eight. His strikeout and walk rates are right in line with his career averages and those home runs have been the main source of his ERA ballooning. His xFIP, which only accounts for the strikeouts, walks, and home runs that he “should” have allowed by a normal HR/FB rate is actually lower than his career average and points to a great comeback coming for Price. If any of his owners are feeling antsy, talk to them ASAP.

Edwin Jackson, Cubs SP

Edwin Jackson has had an extremely out of character year so far in 2013. He has seen spikes in both his strikeout rate (career: 6.94 K/9 2013: 9.24 K/9) and walk rate (career: 3.55 BB/9 2013: 4.26 BB/9) and currently has a putrid 6.39 ERA. However, a lot of that ERA inflation is thanks to some very bad luck—Jackson has only stranded 52.3% of runners on base, near the lowest in major league baseball, and almost 20% lower than his career average. That is largely caused by a .353 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) which is nearly 50 points higher than his career average. I’d look for all of these numbers to regress: Jackson’s strikeout rate, walk rate, BABIP, and most importantly, ERA, should all come down. If for nothing else, Jackson is a near-guaranteed innings eater, posting five straight seasons of 180+ innings pitched headed into this year, and that alone should give him value for the rest of the season.

Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks SP

Brandon McCarthy is a weird case of a player doing exactly what fantasy owners would have wanted him to do coming into the year, but having little to no statistical ‘fantasy’ success with it. McCarthy has actually both raised his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate since leaving Oakland and moving to the Diamondbacks this season, and is even garnering slightly more groundballs. However, his BABIP against this season is a whopping .377, top 5 among starters in major league baseball. That trend seems much more like a small sample fallacy than a legitimate pattern, and when the ball finds slightly less damaging holes, McCarthy should come back down to earth to a 3.8 ERA or so and be a useful starter in most formats. Add him if he’s available on the cheap.

Sell High:

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals SP

I like Jordan Zimmerman a lot, but now is the best time in the year to sell on the young Nats starter. Zimmerman has done little to improve from last year. In fact, his K/9 is a full 2.25 strikeouts lower than last season, but he is still posting an ERA of 1.64. Going into last night’s start, Zimmerman was only striking out 4.75 batters per game, which puts him below guys like Jeff Locke and Jason Vargas. While it’s obvious that his ERA will certainly drift closer to 3.5 as his FIP and xFIP suggest, it’s important to note that in most fantasy leagues strikeouts are a separate category. Zimmerman is not producing for owners in strikeouts at all right now, but his ERA is covering most fantasy owners from noticing. Zimmerman is probably a top 20 pitcher going forward, but it is entirely possible that Zimmerman could be used to obtain a borderline top 10 pitcher for the rest of the year and a guy who will produce more reliable strikeouts.  

Ervin Santana, Royals SP

After a horrific 2012, Santana has bounced back and currently ranks as the #24 SP on CBS so far this season. He’s pulled off a 2.00 ERA to go with a very impressive walk rate of just 1.25 batters per 9 innings. However, I think now is the only time all season where you could talk about him favorably. He’s displaying a few of the classic characteristics of overrated pitchers, and the first of these is his left on base percentage which is currently at 89.5% and 4th highest in the league. This rate has been mainly due to luck and should trend closer towards his career average of 72% as the season goes on. Additionally, Santana is posting the best strikeout rate of his career other than 2008, and a walk rate less than half of his career rate. This isn’t sustainable, and I see a pitcher in Santana who is just easily over his head right now, and it’s only 5 starts in. While most people agree he’s not a top 25 option, I don’t even think that Santana is a top 50-60 option. Sell accordingly.

Matt Moore, Rays SP

All fantasy owners get excited for fresh face with new, electric stuff, and Moore certainly fits that billing. However, his perceived improvement this season is significantly greater than his actual improvement, and capitalizing on his flaming hot start isn’t a bad idea. Last year, Moore posted plenty of strikeouts for a rookie—an 8.88 K/9 rate through nearly 180 innings is nothing to scoff at – but he struggled with his control, posting a 4.11 BB/9 rate. Well, this season, not only have his problems not gotten better, but they’ve actually escalated—yes, a 9.97 K/9 rate is an improvement to elite strikeout status, but Matt Moore’s walk rate has actually gotten worse this season, up to 4.62 BB/9. Right now, Moore has a .179 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) against, and is stranding an MLB-high 96.9% of runners against him. Look for both of those numbers to regress to the mean even with the Rays above average defense—if someone in your league values Moore as a top 10 starter, I’d flip him and try to sell high on his phenomenal early season start.

 Agree? Disagree? Questions? Tweet @RotoAnalysis and be sure to follow Moe @MoeProblems and Matt @KidCotti21. Check out their work on RotoAnalysis.com, as well as The RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast.

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When a person has a league that is a season long the people involved will be playing against a different opponent every week.  This means that you have to beat your opponent that week in order to be able to continue.  You also get a point based on beating your particular opponent for that week instead of winning the league.  This is a great method of play because it gives you more flavor and that it goes on for the entire season.  The more times that you win essentially dictates the higher chance you have of winning the head to head fantasy baseball championship.

A strategy for this is therefore going to need to be a bit different.  One great strategy is to try to scour the waiver for the best players that will help you in your game.  You may also want to try changing your bench players around a bit to get more variety during your game so that you have different chances to beat your opponent.  This should also ring bells in your head so that you don’t pick any players who are risks.  In head to head fantasy baseball you can be affected by players that are injury risks.  To keep this from happening you need to be sure that you keep an eye on the actual games and see who has hurt themselves.

You need to have a balanced team to win head to head fantasy baseball.  Balancing the team might take a bit of time and expertise, but it will be well worth it in the end when you win the championship!

Head-to-head matchups are so good because in reality, that is how baseball is meant to be played. You only have to match up with a team and when that way, so it’s a team specializes in a few categories, you should plan your lineup accordingly. Some guys who will start most of the games will end up sitting for a week or 2 just because it makes more sense. The one drawback though is that some people and up micromanaging their team a little too much. This can lead to a lot of indecision when setting your roster and lineup.

You don’t have to be an overly zealous or die-hard fan to be successful in fantasy leagues. It is really a matter of paying attention to what is happening in the major leagues both on the field via box scores and behind the scenes via the transactions wire. (Read more About Me)  This information is readily available 24/7 from a host of online and print sources.  My one regret is starting this blog a month or so in to the season; all league drafts are a distant memory and the season commences in earnest. There may be some of you who have taken over a team drafted by someone else (which is exactly how I started in 2000)  and you find yourself in an immediate rebuilding effort. I hope I can help. I have Twitter and Facebook sites as well which I welcome you to visit and interact with me and others.

Top 5 Websites to Visit

1. Rotowire – a premium site, which means you can pay for more detailed information ( I have never purchased premium membership)
2. USA Today -  lots of good current information; great weekly chats give very good advice
3. Baseball Reference.com - the bible of players’ lifetime statistics, a good source for players’ position eligibility too
4. Yahoo Sports – similar to USA Today; good coverage from fantasy angle as well
5. US Sports Pages.com -  a sports page compiler site; links to sports pages of all major cities organized regionally

While it is difficult to recommend any Houston Astros on the bright side as whole the ‘Stros aren’t much  worse than the Angel at the moment. The Astros do have a cornucopia of young talent from Chris Carter to J.D. Martinez, but while they do offer home run potential they won’t hit for average. They are all kind of the same post-hype underachievers.

So with the fallout from designating Rick Ankiel and Fernando Martinez the Astros seem to be ready to unveil their latest young prospect. With that being said enter Bigfoot candidate Jimmy Paredes. Paredes’ name has been on the radar of Bigfoot hunter for the past two seasons or so, but the Houston front office just hasn’t been ready to push him to the spotlight, but now is the time.

Sure Paredes hasn’t hit more than 13 home runs in a season, but he offers steals and a decent batting average. This season Paredes has hit .366 with three home runs, 15 RBI, and seven stolen bases. The icing on the cake is Paredes could eventually offer Martin Prado-esque position eligibility. This season in triple A he has mostly played outfield, but has seen time at second, and third.

If I were to make a best possible projection of the type of player he could be I would say something along the lines of Lorenzo Cain. That may even be too optimistic, but in deep and dynasty leagues Paredes is worth a shot.
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Unfortunately for David and Rays fans, these are not the categories you’d like to see yourself or favorite pitcher near the top in. In 7 starts this season, the 6’6 lefty has allowed the 4th most earned runs in the majors (31) and is tied for 7th in home runs allowed (8).

Just one-fifth of the way into the 2013 season, that is half the number of home runs he allowed in his entire 2012 campaign, when he finished with a career best ERA mark of 2.56 in 31 starts.

Interestingly enough, the issue doesn’t seem to be with Price’s control. With 40 strikeouts and 12 walks, he’s pretty much right on pace with his 2012 totals for strikeouts (205) and walks (59). Although there has been a fractional drop, his K/9 is still above 8.0 this season. His WHIP, however, which has been fairly static throughout his career at around 1.1, has ballooned to 1.48.

Seeing as Price uses all 5 of his pitches pretty regularly, I was curious to see if any frequencies – or velocity – had dropped this season as compared to last.

What I found was that Price is throwing his Four-Seam fastball with about the same frequency, but his velocity on that pitch had dropped almost full two MPH, from 96.5 to 94.6. And his Sinker, the pitch he relies on most (over 40%) had an even more significant drop, going from 96.2 to 93.9.

Since you can somewhat rule out control issues (on pace with 2012 totals) and strikeout % (no significant drop), the culprits seem to be both a drop in velocity and a raise in hits allowed per 9 innings. From 2010-12, Price never average more than 7.4 hits per 9 innings. The 2013 number – 10.9 – is cause for some concern.

Fortunately for David, it seems that he has been a victim of an unfortunate BABIP this year, since he currently sits at .351 and league average is roughly .290. Through some fault of his own, he has also done a poorer job stranding runners on base, as his LOB% is 64.5 this season.

Over the course of the season, that BABIP average should come back down closer to Earth, but will the decreased velocity allow opposing hitters to locate his pitches earlier?

It seems they aren’t having much a problem seeing the ball out of Price’s hand thus far, and the fact that 20% of the fly balls Price have allowed have left the park for home runs is something to keep an eye on.

(Stats from this article thanks to Baseball-Ref, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs)

Whether he’s taking advantage of a spitball or not, Clay Buchholz has obviously gotten off to a fantastic start in this young 2013 season.  Buchholz was the 4^th overall prospect according to Baseball America back in 2008 but ever since he had a breakout season back in 2010 he has been nothing but disappointing to Red Sox fans and his fantasy owners.  So what is it that he’s doing this year that has turned things back around?  Two things.  The first thing is Buchholz is striking out way more batters than he ever has in a season before—he’s got a strikeout rate of 27.8% this year compared to one of only 18% throughout his career.  The second thing is Buchholz has astonishingly only given up one home run in 44.1 innings this season for a career low .20 HR/9.  On top of those two things he’s also getting a little lucky (3.1% HR/FB rate, .248 BABIP—compared to a .280 career BABIP) and he’s stranding runners on base at a significantly higher rate than his career average as well (91.4% this year vs 73.9% for his career).  When I look at these numbers the first thing they do is they SCREAM REGRESSION and I would be doing everything I could to maximize his value right this moment in a trade.  If you can’t find a trade partner though I do think that Buchholz will continue to be a valuable asset for fantasy teams all season (just not the #1 overall pitcher) and that we shouldn’t fear him regressing to the level he pitched at last season.

When we dive into the advanced statistics we can see that Buchholz is doing a much better job at locating his pitches, especially his fastball in 2013.  According to the good people over at brooksbaseball.net (an absolutely fantastic database) we can see that Buchholz has thrown his four-seam fastball for a called strike 27.5% of the time this year compared to 22.08% throughout his career and conversely, the pitch has seen a drop in in-play rate (15.26% this season compared to 20.46% in his career).  This indicates to me that Buchholz is doing a better job at putting his fastballs on the corners and that he’s leaving fewer of them over the middle of the plate.  Because Buchholz has been able to locate the fastball better he’s getting himself into more 2 strike counts (strikeout opportunities) and when he’s getting to those counts it appears that he’s re-discovered his changeup (which after the 2007 season was rated the best changeup in the Red Sox system according to Baseball America) as his out pitch and so far it has been devastating to hitters.  This season Buchholz has thrown the changeup 19 times against batters with 2 strikes (11% of his 2 strike pitches have been changeups) and all of them have either been called for a ball or swung at (which indicates to me that he’s burying the changeup with 2 strikes) and 6 of those swings have lead to strikeouts (the other 3 were fouled off).    Last year he got so fed up with the changeup that he ditched the pitch completely in the second half for a splitter instead.  This season he has rediscovered the changeup though and if he continues to use it effectively, especially as a strikeout pitch then there is no reason to believe that Buchholz isn’t going to set a career high in strikeouts.  If I had Clay Buchholz on my team I would be doing everything I could right now to sell him as the #1 overall pitcher in fantasy.  If I were unable to do that though I would be very comfortable having Buchholz on my staff moving forward and I would expect a very good rest of the season out of him—I’m just not expecting him to finish the season with a sub-2 era and a strikeout rate of 27.8% though so a regression is bound to come at some point and if I could get a guy like Matt Cain, David Price or Cole Hamels for him I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

Next Up: A.J. Burnett

Standings
1. Buccos Lose Again 99
2. The Benedict Alberts 82
3. The Naturals 78.5
4. Peoria Pounders 76
5. Trailer18 Nine 73
6. The Ohfers 65.5
7. Sultan of Swat 315 60.5
8. team i like steroids 54.5
9. The Rebuilding Project 38.5
10. Aroldis Chapman s frayed … 32.5
Updated Monday, May 6, 2013

This week saw 6.5 point jumps from me(BLA) and The Benedict Alberts. The Ohfers jumped 5.5 and The Naturals saw a 5 point increase. Peoria Pounders had a rough week losing 15 points. Aroldis Chapman s frayed labrum lost 6.5 and The Rebuilding Project lost 6.

After the trade for Cano and Pettitte last week I added Marcell Ozuna and Nate McClouth. McClouth is SB security currently, but Ozuna has me intrigued. He has got off to a great start to his career with a hit in each of his 1st 6 games. With 1HR and 4 RBIs. With this league being as deep as it is and having minor league rosters Ozuna somehow slipped through the cracks and was a free agent (Tony Cingrani went undrafted this year as well, I botched that 1 as I had him last year, he just didn’t make my final 30 cut and I completely forgot about him during the draft). I also added Steve Cishek off the waiver wire this past week. I realize Miami stinks, but they will still win some games and Cishek will get the bulk of the save opportunities.  Plus he is a perfect addition to possible trades.

Although my team is putting up solid all around numbers, I have a problem with constantly looking to make a move or trade, I love tinkering with my team. But I also will soon be experiencing a roster crunch this week when Matt Adams and Francisco Liriano come off the DL. There are to many Cardinal fans in my league to just drop Adams. I would love to see Matt Adams get more playing time.  I love his bat, but the Cards are loaded with players and there just isn’t an open spot to slot him in.  To bad Cards not in AL. Me being a Pirate fan and my love for K’s is the reason I am unwilling to drop Liriano before I see how he performs in Pittsburgh.  There are some players I can drop, just don’t want to, will be seeing if I can swing a low end deal this week possibly.

The 2 teams I fear the most this year are now sitting in 2nd and 3rd.  The Naturals have finished 3rd, 2nd and last year won the league.  The Benedict Alberts finished 8th, 3rd and 3rd.  The Benedict’s have an amazing offense and they are over loaded at 3B with David Wright, Manny Machado, Will Middlebrooks, David Freese and he has Anthony Rendon as well.  Would love to get Machado, but he is off limits as is Wright.  The rest are nice, but not what I am looking to find if I look to replace Pedro Alvarez.

The Pirates slumped a bit last week going 2 and 4.  Milwaukee has ownership rights to the Pirates I believe.  This week is a 2 game series with Seattle and 4 games with the Mets.  A 4 and 2 week this week would make for a great week.

Chris and Pop-Pop discuss the epic fall of Roy Halladay as he hits the DL, the continuing
fall of the Phillies, Andrew Bynum’s situation with the Sixers, and if the Eagles are for real
this early on in the Chip Kelly-era without even playing a game.

Spike Eskin tells the guys that if he were GM of the Phillies, he’d get rid of them all (Howard,
Utley, Rollins, etc.). He also talks about what went wrong with Doug Collins and the Sixers.

Delco Times Eagles beat writer Bob Grotz discusses the possibility of Mike Vick not being the
starter come the first week of the regular season.

Let Chris and Pop-Pop know what you want to hear about. Leave a comment on their page,
or contact Chris through Twitter at @CDiFrancesco86.

The Chris & Pop-Pop Show on Olio.fm | Olio.fm on Facebook | @oliofm on Twitter

———

Chris & Pop-Pop will smack you right in the face with their own dose of reality on the Flyers,
Eagles, Phillies and Sixers. The Chris & Pop-Pop Show on Olio.fm delivers Philadelphia
sports talk in a way that you haven’t heard before, over the air OR online. Join the revolution
every Tuesday, only on Olio.fm.

On the Fantasy Tuesday edition of The Phil Naessens Show Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Writer Nick Falk joins host Phil Naessens to answer the listeners questions including; Ian Desmond or JJ Hardy; If you had both on your roster which one would you keep, replacements for injured SS/3B Hanley Ramirez, what to do about 2B Daniel Murphy, issues with closers Fernando Rodney, Glen Perkins and Jim Johnson all being on the same roster, what to do about struggling Ryan Vogelson and much more.

To download this program to your portable device please right click the link below and select “save as”.

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The Phil Naessens Show can be heard Monday thru Friday at Max Sports Channels, Ohio Sports Radio Network, Independent Radio La and Talk Superstation .

Sports statistics provided courtesy of RotoWire.

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Intro and Closing Music by Mr. Michael Guerette

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Phil is now on twitter and can be found @flashtennis31

ERA and Wins are dependent upon many factors outside of a pitcher’s control (mainly defense and offensive output),  and are poor indicators of a pitcher’s true ability. Take Jake Westbrook for example who miraculously sports an ERA of 1.07 due to an alarmingly high LOB (left on base) rate. His FIP and xFIP are 3.55 and 4.49 respectively which are more in line with his career totals. Of course nobody expects Jake Westbrook to have even a sub-3 ERA but his ownership hovering around 30%, shows me that many fantasy gamers still focus on old-age statistics.

Below are our rankings as of today. Starting pitching is the position best to upgrade in mid-May, because if you do your research (or we do it for you), you can find many buy low and sell high candidates. These are ranked for a Daily, 1400 IP limit Yahoo Pro’s league.

Below are the players we would buy/sell. The formula for this is simple; if a player’s perceived value greatly exceeds his true value, we advise to sell, and vice versa.

Buy high: Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey, Jeff Samardzija

This trio of strikeout kings have emerged into our top 20 and we are heavily invested in each of these players. Scherzer and Samardzija are continuing their flirtation with double digit K/9 from 2012, while Harvey seems poised to join them among that rarified air. Strikeouts are great in any fantasy game, but especially in Yahoo’s Pro Leagues as each team has an innings limit of 1400 innings. Harvey and Samardzija do play for poor teams which will handicap their ability to get wins, but wins are a fluky stat anyway which is hard to predict. We are content taking the double digit strikeout performances and quality starts. It would not surprise me to see these three each amass 225+ strikeouts and finish in the top 12 among fantasy starters in 2013. You can deal a sell high candidate and perhaps pick up a bat along with Samardzija or Harvey.

Sell High: Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale

Sell high candidates, as previously stated, are based mainly on perceived value. In my opinion Strasburg’s perceived value has carried his ADP and ranking above where it actually lies. Sale and Strasburg both scare me as guys who could miss time with injuries (Sale has his violent delivery and Strasburg has not looked 100% healthy this year). Don’t count me as a Strasburg hater, his stuff is fantastic, but Cliff Lee is more likely to appear in 30 games, eclipse 200 innings and they will likely post similar W/ERA/WHIP totals. I will forego the additional 20 strikeouts Strasburg MAY throw for a healthier, safer player and perhaps a bat in return. Madison Bumgarner is young and talented, but frankly it is surprising how many experts have him as a top 10 SP. I would prefer to see Bumgarner miss more bats before I invest in him, and in most leagues you could swap him for Scherzer and pick up some value.

Buy low: Hyun-Jin Ryu, AJ Burnett, Paul Maholm

Despite recent spectacular performances Korean phenom Hyun-Jin Ryu is still being undervalued by fantasy owners. Perhaps it is his Wellsian-figure, West Coast Bias or thought that “hitters have yet to adjust,” which have caused Ryu to still be unowned in some leagues. Ryu is a strikeout machine, pitches in a pitcher’s park, and is completely undervalued by fantasy owners. If you can swap a sell low candidate for him, do it. AJ Burnett has been spectacular since leaving the Yankees. His FIP is actually lower than his mid-2 ERA right now, suggesting he has actually been unlucky sporting a 2.57 ERA. Burnett has seen an increase in his swing-strike percent, which has lead to a career-high strikeout rate. I expect the 36-year old is still being undervalued and can be an affordable buy. I have listened to experts Buster Olney and Matthew Berry gush over Paul Maholm all season, and from the 10 or so innings I have seen, he is a solid fantasy buy. His increase in strikeout rate from 11′ to 12′ is encouraging, and his walk rate remained the same. I think that he would be fairly easy to acquire in a 12 or 14-team league, and will finish as a top 35 starter by years end.

Sell low: CJ Wilson, Dan Haren, Kris Medlen

Sadly I have multiple shares in each of these players. Medlen had a horrific spring and has not impressed in his first half-dozen starts this season. His strikeout rate is way down (Small Sample), walk rate is up, and Medlen seems more hittable. Dan Haren has been in April what he will be the rest of the season: erratic, destroying your fantasy team one week and dominant the next. His velocity is up from 2012, but part of his perceived value is that he may return to the Dan Haren of old, and folks that ain’t happening. As an owner with CJ Wilson on half of his teams (no idea why), I beg of you to please take him off my hands. CJ Wilson’s perceived value also is partly based on what he was able to do as a member of the Rangers and although he now plays in a pitcher-friendly park, he is not the same pitcher. I expect the CJ Wilson of ’13 to be like the CJ Wilson of ’12, and if you can get a pitcher you expect to outperform those pedestrian numbers, pull the trigger.

As always tweet feedback to @manwithaspreads

So the magician’s curve ball, huh? When you look over Pettitte’s stats from 2007 to 2009 you do notice the 4.00 ERA over the last give years since his return to Yankee glory. However, he suddenly becomes a ground ball wizard  in 2010 and in his brief 2012 stint. I know! I said I wouldn’t be pushing stats here, but Pettitte had a decent amount of strikeouts for a pitcher that makes his living with groundouts.  Sure, Pettitte has learned the “soft” approach to pitching, but it does not explain why so many batters chased pitches outside of the strike zone. When you WATCH him pitch, you notice this trend. I found this video of Pettitte pitching the outside curveball on many occasion, and it expresses the illusion of the pitch and the effect that it has on right handed hitters: (Video is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7dz0HMuXpg

(Courtesy of Major League Baseball). While Pettitte is showing a nasty off speed curveball pitch down in the strike zone, this video does not show the many outside calls that Pettitte is given by the umpire. In MANY cases, these floater curveballs on the outside part of the plate are called strikes when they are clearly 2 to 3 inches out of the strike zone. These are the types of video observations that cannot easily be captured in statistics, which suggests the importance of observation…that’s right, THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD! So why are the batters swinging at pitches WAY outside the strike zone on the outside corner? Well there could be a few theories…

One theory is that Pettitte took the umpire out for a nice day of 18 holes of golf and a wink and nod gets the outside call…lol  But ahhhhh, that might be a bit of that mind warping angst that so many Boston Red Sox fans endured over the years. GO SOX! Do you hear the fly wings fluttering? Or more realistically, the umpire might simply be simply missing the call. After all, many of the umpires seem to align their vision with home plate on the left side versus that of right side. In this theory, might Pettitte know this fact and exploit it? We most likely NEVER know, but I HAD to bring this up after wincing every time the magician’s curveball get the strike call so FAR off the plate…up OR down in relation to the strike zone. So hey, think I’m full of it? Maybe so, but WATCH Pettitte pitch and check out that “expanding” strike zone as he throws a sun-downer curveball to the west of the plate. Is it magic? Or is it the pinpoint accuracy of an aging master? Let the video tell the tale.

With all the craziness of media reporting, it can actually help the fantasy baseball player make insightful decision on roster decisions in weekly and daily leagues. In sociological studies, the theme of race, social background, and other variables play into how a player may perform or not perform when you pick players off the waiver or make a trade. In a historical perspective, imagine how Jackie Robinson felt first stepping onto the baseball field during a time of racial segregation? Anxiety? Adrenaline? Would we expect him to hit .400 and steal 10 bases in the first week? Most likely not…even though Robinson was outstanding in his rookie year. However, it should be noted that players don’t only worry about their batting average, slugging average, or WHIP, but they must also deal with family issues, marriage, social institutions, legalities and other factors that can affect play on a day-to-day basis.

In the example of Robinson, a fantasy baseball player can also take into the account the psychology of a player when thinking of roster changes. Certainly, many technical fantasy baseball analysts express concern over a rookie or an injured player getting “back into the groove” when discussing performance expectations, but it is less likely you will see these personal details on player psychology outside of these discussions. More so, many players do not have the iron will of a Jackie Robinson and they can succumb to depression, poor self-esteem, and other factors that can be monitored through mass media. Surely, the baseball media is not faint of heart when it comes to social criticisms of player, so we can expect to see these aspects of player performance. Strengths can also be monitored too…consistently great players like Ichiro Suzuki never seem to be phased, but let’s face it, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols took a awhile to get going in a new Angels uniform. Hamilton is STILL trying to get going and we only speculate that the new social environment is a sociological cue to his dance with the Mendoza Line. If a fantasy baseball analyst cannot see beyond the numbers, they will pick Hamilton every time based on his history. Personally, he’d go right on my bench! Dude, get some shades…the stars are bright in L.A.!!!!!

In the photo above, Hamilton was quoted as having said: “I ask guys all the time: Guys with blue eyes, brown eyes, whatever … and guys with blue eyes have a tough time [during the day]. Wow, why don’t they have stats for this??? LOL Man, this guy must be a baseball statistician’s nightmare. Whatever you do, don’t play baseball if you have blue eyes! You’ll stink!

So, the sociological impact of choosing a player should be an extremely IMPORTANT factor in addition to your obsession with stats. A fantasy player can choose a great roster by watching the body language of a player or the gripes they make on the field, but also through media articles that determine the “head-case” status of a player. Get to know your player! Does the player get into trouble with management? Will he be hitting pine because he is slacking off on the field (See: Starlin Castro)? Is he a crazed drug addict?  Baseball is NOT just a numbers game. Numbers are great, but if a player can’t think it through on and off the field; he most likely won’t give you the numbers you want to win your fantasy baseball league.

We’ve reached the point when fantasy baseball really starts getting interesting.

It’s May. Most of our hitters have hit the 100 at-bat point of their season. We have enough information on our pitching staff to have a good feeling for most of the guys there. This is the first good evaluation point because it’s not a bad week or two now. Streaks have become trends and we win by paying attention to trends.

There are hard truths on some players, if we’re willing to accept them. We also have some surprises and some players who have started over their heads and are trending back to who they always have been. We’re in what should be the time we can figure out, for better or worse, what we have.

What to make of John Buck
I claimed Mets catcher John Buck in a pair of leagues. In one, I got him this week. If you need power, he’s a great guy to have. Buck hit his 10th home run Friday. I have him as my second catcher in my main league (behind Buster Posey) and will start looking to unload him soon. He is a terrific source of power. But this season’s numbers are so far out of line for what he’s been in his 10-year career there has to be some regression. If you can get him for the value of a guy who is a career .236 hitter with a career high in home runs of 20, do it. Chances are the Buck owner in your league will want more.

The other big catching surprise, Atlanta’s Evan Gattis, is about to lose value. The Braves are going to welcome back All-Star Brian McCann on Monday. He will catch plenty. There might be time for Gattis. But he’s going to have to get his playing time by spelling McCann once or twice per week and maybe getting a day at first base or a day or two in the outfield.

Speaking of power hitters
We entered this season with high expectations for other players we actually considered power hitters. They have, almost to a man, let us down.

• Kansas City’s corner infielders Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have combined to hit one home run entering Saturday’s game. Their shortstop, noted slugger Alcides Escobar, has three homers. With Hosmer and Moustakas, we drafted them to serve as key parts of our offense and they just aren’t. Escobar is a backup infielder unless you are using him to hold down shortstop until Jose Reyes comes back.

Moustakas has started showing signs of breaking out of his funk. He’s picked up 50 points in batting average in the past 10 days and is driving the ball. If you drafted him and have endured his bad start, don’t get rid of him now. He’s starting to heat up.

Hosmer’s a curious tale. He looked primed for a huge season. We all knew it was coming. But he’s regressed a lot. With Hosmer, there was hope he could be Adam Dunn with a good batting average. A fantasy stud and a real baseball All-Star. But his ground ball rate has increased every season and his extra-base hit percentage has dropped. He has become, for better or worse, Sean Casey with a low average. I think he’s better than this. But I’ll need to see it before I put full trust in him.

• Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce has one home run. He’s a streaky hitter to begin with. But everything is on track for his career averages except home runs. His ground ball rate has gone up, but not enough to be statistically relevant. I still think he’s going to have a period where he just mashes everything that doesn’t bounce. I’d buy low here

• Someone in your draft probably took Giancarlo Stanton in the first round for some reason. They probably were expecting the huge power numbers to continue. When Stanton is back from the DL, he’s going to hit home runs. But he might have one of those seasons of 25 home runs and 60 RBI. His team is horrible. No one with any good sense is going to give him a chance to beat them. I’d stay away.

• If you know what happened to Matt Kemp, please let me know. One home run, 11 RBI and an OPS of .662? This is not Matt Kemp. It can’t be. But it is. I’m concerned here. Normally, a guy like this will have some underlying information that suggests they will come back to who they are. With Kemp, everything looks the same except the results.

He has a career batting average on balls in play of .352. This season? .351.

His ground ball rate is identical to 2012, when he hit 23 home runs in 449 at bats.

Kemp has a lot of things saying he still should be the best player on your fantasy team. But he just isn’t. That said, you have to keep him if you drafted him right? I mean, no one in your league is going to give you market value for Kemp and you’re not trading him for Nick Markakis. But I’m worried.

Pitching bonanzas and disasters
• I own Matt Cain. I believe in Matt Cain. I wish Matt Cain would stop destroying my ERA and WHIP every start. When I was trying to discover something that could explain why he suddenly turned into Bert Blyleven, I expected to see a huge innings leap. There’s not one.

The expectation was the innings he logged pitching the Giants to their second World Series title in three years were wearing him down. I’d be willing to believe it if he hadn’t been so good in 2011, after pitching the Giants to a world title. With Cain, everything is in line for who he is except ERA (6.49 this season, career 3.34) and home runs per nine innings (this season 2.3, career 0.8).

It comes down to the same thing that drove Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden out of baseball. Once Cain gets the heater down, he’ll be back to what we drafted him to do.

• Some pitching quick hitters: If you drafted Jarrod Parker, you can move on. Another bad start and the A’s will. … Parker’s former teammate, Patrick Corbin of the Diamondbacks, has been a sneaky good play. If you can get him, and he’s still available in many leagues, he will give you what Parker and Arizona’s Wade Miley did in 2012. … Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann has been the best pitcher in the National League this season. He gets lost in the shuffle there. I’ve always liked him. … Texas’ Derek Holland is a terrific play. He gets strikeouts and will collect wins on a good team. … The prospect arm to track in Baltimore isn’t Dylan Bundy. It’s Kevin Gausman. … Cincinnati’s Mat Latos always starts badly. This season, he’s 2-0 with an ERA under 2.00 in April. He’s going to contend for the National League Cy Young Award.

Chad Conant is a sports copy editor for the Media Network of Central Ohio. He can be reached at cconant@nncogannett.com and on Twitter: @mnj_fantasy.
http://www.mansfieldnewsjournal.com/article/20130504/SPORTS/305040023/Fantasy-Baseball-s-now-safe-panic