These are this morning’s top pre-market analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Raised to Outperform at FBR.

AGA Medical (AGAM) Started as Buy at Citigroup; Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo; Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Deere & Co. (DE) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Genzyme (GENZ) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
HSBC Holdings plc (HBC) Raised to Buy at BofA Merrill Lynch; Started as Outperform at FBR.
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA) Reiterated Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
US BAncorp (USB) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
US Steel (X) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs; replaces Freeport McMoRan (FCX).

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JON C. OGG

They say Copper has a PHD in Economics or something like that.  I guess that explains why it busted above its recent range before the stronger than expected GDP report today.  It did dip quickly back below that line yesterday, but today it reclaimed it and left all those sellers yesterday caught with their pants down.

Of course, you could play PCU or FCX, but I’m going with TGB.
It shows the same dip down below the recent breakout level and a nice bullish engulfing candle to reclaim it while also bouncing off the 50 MA.

With a stop just below yesterday’s low, a move to $3.50 makes a nice 2:1 reward/risk setup.

These are this Thursday morning’s top ten analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have seen from Wall Street research calls:

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
F5 Networks (NASDAQ: FFIV) Raised to Neutral at UBS; Raised to Buy at Canaccord Adams.
Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Motorola (NYSE: MOT) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Novellus Systems (NASDAQ: NVLS) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) Cut to Neutral from Buy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) Raised to Buy at UBS.
STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE: STM) Cut to Sell at RBS.
Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) Cut to Underweight at Piper Jaffray.

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JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 22, 2009

By Charles Rotblut
October 21, 2009

As gold sets new highs, it would only be natural to assume that profit forecasts for gold mining companies would be soaring too. Surprisingly, profit forecasts are not jumping.

Though some brokerage analysts have raised their full-year projections in recent weeks, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is not moving higher for most gold miners. Rather, it is essentially unchanged for Barrick Gold (ABX – Analyst Report), Eldorado (EGO – Snapshot Report), Goldcorp (GG – Snapshot Report) and most of their peers.

Where are we seeing increases are for companies that are significantly dependant on other metals, such as copper or silver. For example, the 2009 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX – Analyst Report) has risen 67 cents over the past 30 days to $3.79 per share. (This morning, FCX reported third-quarter profits of $2.07 per share, topping forecasts for $1.14 per share). Analysts hadPan American Silver (PAAS – Snapshot Report) is also seeing expectations rise with the Zacks Consensus now at 75 cents per share, versus 70 cents a month ago.

Ore Quality Is An Issue
A big reason why the gold miners are not shining as brightly as the precious metal is the quality of the ore being mined. There is a general school of thought that the miners are digging up ore that is more difficult to process. As result, this is adversely impacting costs. When miners dig up gold, they are effectively taking rock out of the ground. Though the goal would be to just dig up gold, the actual rocks contain various other metals and minerals. This means the mining company has to separate the gold from the other metals. Ore is considered to be higher quality when there is a greater concentration of gold in the rocks. Conversely, ore is considered to be of lower quality if the rock contains less gold.

Obviously, it is in every miner’s best interest to dig up higher quality ore. However, as more and more gold is dug up, the quality of the ore decreases, hurting margins. It is this concern that has many analysts unwilling to raise their profit forecasts. Investors should note that this is not dissimilar to what is occurring with oil. Many of the newly discovered oil fields are in areas where it is expensive to drill in. An example is Brazil’s Tupi field, which lies several miles below sea level.

Not The First Time Analysts Have Been Cautious
What’s interesting about the lack of estimate revisions is that this is not the first time it has happened. Back in February, when gold broke above $1,000 for the first time this year, I pointed out that brokerage analysts were not raising their forecasts. (Read Why Gold Miners Are Not Glittering.) Rather, analysts were cutting forecasts at that time.

Since then, gold mining stocks have rallied with Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) gaining about 43%. However, had you invested in a fund that tracked the S&P 500 instead, you would have realized an approximate 42% return. In other words, you could have gotten a similar return with considerably more diversification by buying S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) instead of GDX. (An investment in gold, via Gold SPDR (GLD) would have only earned you an 11.2% return over the same period of time.)

As you can see, while gold has been rallying, it has not given investors the best opportunities to profit. The mixed earnings estimate picture for gold miners suggests that the risks of investing in these companies remains elevated. Though gold mining stocks could still go higher, especially if third-quarter margins are better than expected, there are industries whose short-term prospects are brighter.

We have almost an endless wave of corporate earnings for the calendar Q3-2009 coming out next week.  We have what looks to be over 100 of the S&P 500 Index members reporting and what appears to be 12 current or ex-DJIA components reporting earnings as well.  Coming up with a Top 10 is almost unfair, but this coming week’s top ten earnings we will be focusing on are as follows: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD), Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB).

We screened out the companies whose destiny has already been set by competitor earnings from this last week and screened out the ones which will have no real broad impact but are still widely held and actively traded. Lastly, we screened out the drug and medical companies as we are featuring those in their own group at BioHealthInvestor.com.  A more detailed estimate count from Thomson Reuters has been provided, along with data showing performance from the March 9 close and the June 30 closing date along with other pertinent information on each stock.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is on deck for a Monday post-close report.  Apple has been hitting 52-week highs and estimates are $1.42 EPS on $9.2 billion in revenues.  Steve Jobs and friends do offer very conservative and sand-bagged guidance, and the coming quarter estimates are $1.91 EPS and $11.44 billion in revenues.  Be advised that this report also marks its formal year-end.  Shares are up 32% since the June 30 close and are up a whopping 126% from the March 9 close.  Apple is now ranked as #10 on our 24/7 Wall St. Real-Time 500 Largest Companies In America.  Friday’s cautious research note from Oppenheimer may have taken some wind from the Apple sails, but keep in mind that shares are literally within about 5% of being back to all-time highs of $200 ($202.96).

UnitedHealth Group Inc.    (NYSE: UNH) is on deck for Tuesday.  This may not seem like the most important stock out there considering it is a health insurance stock.  But as the Obama administration has changed from healthcare reform to health insurance reform, this one will likely set the tone for how every other health insurance provider is received.  Consensus estimates are all over the place, with consensus as $0.77 EPS and $21,54 billion in revenues.  For fiscal 2009 the estimates are $3.09 EPS on $86.87 billion in revenues, which effectively gives it a forward 8-times earnings multiple.  That is because the sector is under fire and most now assume that the big players in the health insurance sector are being turned into a regulated utility.  But it isn’t all doom and gloom.  Shares are down about 1% since June 30, but they are up almost 40% from the March 9 close.  UNH’s 52-week trading range is $15.19 to $30.25 and its market cap is now $28.6 billion.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is also on deck for after the close on Tuesday.  The company is not going to have any broad market impact, but it has an army of shareholders who are buried in the stock that were hoping for that Microsoft buyout that Jerry Yang botched so badly.  Estimates are $0.07 EPS on $1.12 billion in ex-TAC revenues, and next quarter is expected at $0.10 EPS and $1.22 billion in revenues.  Carol Bartz is believed to be a big boost for Yahoo! and its trimming of losing operations is believed to have lent a hand for Q4 or for 2010 after the charges have all been realized.  But the advertising revenues better be strong to match Google’s advances from last week, or there is going to be the feeling that things are only getting better because the company is leaner.  The Microsoft search-ad swap won’t have had any time to add to last quarter, and asset sale closings will likely not be recognized until the Q4 period.  Shares have risen by about 6% since the June 30 close and are up “only” 32% since the March 9 close.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) is on deck for Wednesday Oct. 21 and is an unlikely “10 most important” earnings reports.  But we have been dying to get a better read for what lower energy prices and massively higher gold prices over $1,000 is doing for the bottom-line for the gold miners and producers. Estimates are $1.35 EPS on $4.18 billion in revenues, and estimates for the current quarter that we’ll get in three months are only $1.08 EPS on $3.63 billion in revenues.  There is not just some fluff here.  Shares are above $75.00 and the 52-week trading range is $15.70 to $76.55.  Shares are up 50% from June 30 and up a whopping 135% from March 9.

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) probably already has its fate sealed by how JPMorgan, Citi, and B of A have all reported.  But it is Berkshire Hathaway’s top bank and the personal stock of Warren Buffett, so we are including it.  Estimates are $0.36 EPS and $21.63 billion in revenues.  Despite a 4% drop mid-day on Friday, this stock is up 25% since the June 30 close and up just over 200% from the March 9 close.

AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) is on deck for Thursday and the performance has been low enough that it almost made the list of underperforming companies which the rally has left behind.  Estimates are $0.50 EPS on $30.87 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.50 EPS on $30.87 billion in revenues as well.  AT&T shares are up only about 7% from the June 30 close and are up just over 25% from the March 9 close.  The obvious issue to watch here is how little land-line erosion it has had, how its AT&T Wireless is doing, and how many uVerse TV and fiber subscribers it has added.  And Verizon of course is the stock to watch for the primary reaction.

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is on deck Thursday morning and estimates are $1.11 EPS and $6.1 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.99 EPS and $5.87 billion in revenues.  Shares are up only about 3% from the June 30 close and up about 16% since the March 9 close.  The 52-week trading range is $50.44 to $64.46 and the question is on about just how much more it can benefit from the recession and the trade-down now that things are getting better and now that so many more upscale restaurant stocks have rallied significantly.  This was a runner up in the stocks not participating in the rally, but Burger King took that ‘honor in the screen.

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.    (NYSE: POT) is on deck for Thursday morning and estimates are $0.81 EPS and $1.06 billion in revenues.  As Mosaic said it would not offer guidance on potash, this is a wild card despite significant warnings and earnings disappointments from the fertilizer and potash sector leaders.  To show how severe this is, that is a drop of almost two-thirds of revenues year over year.  Shares are up close to 4% from June 30 and are up almost 40% from the March 9 lows.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is now the second largest US player by market cap in our Real-Time 500 US Companies index.  The company has also changed its old reporting habits and is now reporting earnings early Friday morning.  So much for a break from earnings season on Friday.  Estimates from the software giant are $0.32 EPS and $12.4 billion in revenues, and the next quarter estimates are $0.52 EPS and $17.12 billion in revenues.  There are too many moving parts to peg just one issue here, but the release of Windows 7 is obviously the biggest upcoming event to watch.  Shares of Microsoft are up 11% since June 30 and are up a severe 74% from the March 9 closing bell.

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) is on deck next Friday morning and is effectively on the second of the giant oil players in services as we had Halliburton report this morning.  Estimates are $0.63 EPS and $5.5 billion in revenues.  Obviously oil’s recent rise to above $75 makes this more interesting to many players.  Shares are up 26% since June 30 and are up a whopping 88% since the March 9 close.  This is deemed by many traders and investors as the top oil services company of them all so it is a key bogey for the sector.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.  As a reminder, these earnings estimates may change after the weekend and ahead of the actual reporting.  It is also possible that earnings dates will change.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 16, 2009

Há poucos dias se especulou sobre a possibilidade de a Honda comercializar o FCX Clarity na Europa. Duas unidades do modelo movido a hidrogênio foram exportadas ao Velho Continente, mas não serão usadas em testes da empresa. Elas chegaram ao continente para a imprensa.

Vendido nos Estados Unidos – mais precisamente no estado da Califórnia – em leasing, o Clarity não deve chegar tão cedo à Europa (que dirá ao Brasil). Ele chegou para que jornais, revistas e outras mídias europeias possam testar o modelo e espalhar sua tecnologia pelo continente. Movido por célula de combustível alimentada por hidrogênio, o sedã/crossover emite apenas água em vapor.

A Honda continua apostando forte nos veículos movidos por célula de combustível. Nos EUA, a marca já oferece o FCX Clarity, um modelo a hidrogênio que pode ser adquirido por leasing. Agora, ele começa a chegar à Europa, ainda que não em caráter definitivo. Duas unidades foram exportadas para o Velho Continente, provavelmente para adaptar o modelo à realidade local. Em breve, tudo indica que os consumidores europeus poderão comprar o FCX.

Caso inicie mesmo as vendas do FCX Clarity na europa, a Honda reforçará sua imagem ecologicamente correta na região. Atualmente, a empresa já conta com versões híbridas de modelos como o Civic. Além disso, há o Insight, criado especialmente para rodar com eletricidade, e o CR-Z, seu futuro esportivo elétrico.

Se for vendido na Europa, deverá ser por meio de leasing, como nos EUA.

Noted a post today from a seasoned investor/trader pondering if we’re in for some Bearish moves here based on the last two days irrational movement in what he considers a *rational* market.  Had to scratch my head on that one.  Rational market?  When we’re setting new 52-week highs based on EPS set so low only a snail could crawl beneath and profits earned by reduced inventories, headcount, financing renegotiations and expenditure reductions?  That’s not what I would call a *rational* market but hey, what do I know.

Sure, the USD got a boost in the perverial arm late in the week based on [short covering] profit taking and Bernanke talking of eventually raising rates however in my mind it’s only a short term pop.  After all, nothings changed.  Next week Ben will ramp up the printing press once more, the USD  will continue to be sold and our commodity-led rally will resume. 

Taking a quick peak at FCX [my barometer for copper & gold] sure it looks like a Bearish rising wedge at first glance, but the Bollinger Bands are expanding not contracting, Accumulation remains high, ADX, MACD every indicator you could possibly lay on the chart screams higher so I don’t see the problem.  *Rational* market?  No, but it is what it is……..until it’s not.

Mining giant BHP Billiton has announced revised figures that significantly upgrade the reclaimable reserves for its flagship Olympic Dam operation in southern Australia.

New figures released by BHP (NYSE:BHP) point to a 22% increase from 284 thousand tonnes to 347.5 thousand tonnes of of U3O8, due to mineral re-classification as operational drilling taps into larger sources. BHP has correspondingly upgraded the operational lifetime of Olympic Dam from 43 to 54 years.

Olympic Dam is arguably BHP’s most valuable asset, as it is a multi-mineral source combining the world’s 4th largest copper deposit, 5th largest gold deposit & significant amounts of silver. It is also currently the world’s largest single uranium ore deposit.

With a production level of 3344tU last year, Olypic Dam is placed 4th in extraction levels for uranium, BHP are now looking to expand the size of their operations on this site. At present, all mining activities are conducted underground, however, BHP has submitted an expansion plan to local government that would see open pit miningf being introduced to the site. With government expected to make a preliminary decion on the expansion project next year, this is a critical time for BHP, as the following chart illustrates.

In an earlier post, we discussed the impact of Sino energy requirements on Australian miners, as the Chinese are heavily commited to reducing pollution & are searching for cleaner energy sources to power their expanding economic requirements. In April this year, Chinese officials announced they would start building five extra power plants this year on top of the 24 already under construction & 11 already in operation.

“There are not enough uranium resources in China to support the aggressive nuclear power development plan for the next 20-30 years,” said Professor Liu Deshun, of China’s Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology. “Australia has the uranium resources that could be exported and in China we have the demand”

Earlier this year, BHP managed to successfully expand into the Yeelirrie deposit in Western Australia, which is estimated to  have a 10 to 12-year lifespan and a resource of 35,000 tonnes of uranium,  as a result of the Western Australian government lifting a six year old ban on uranium extraction in the state. With this prescedent & also the ability to secure long term supply contracts to China, Australian Minister for Resources, Martin Ferguson, has indicated the Federal Government was unlikely to stand in the way, subject to environmental and investment tests.

In the short term, this could also have a large knock on effect on the share price of some of it’s key competitors, namely Freeport McMoRan & Rio Tinto. Rio is also a top producer of uranium ore, with it’s Ranger Mine in Kakadu, which currently supplies 10% of global requirements, any uplift in BHP’s production capacity is sure to impact that figure.

More interestingly for me, there has been much speculation that BHP could be looking to acquire Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)  in order to bolster their gold & copper production, however, referring to the anticipated production uplift in both of these commodities if the expansion plan is successful, why would BHP Billiton look at dishing out more than $27 Bn, when they could integrate on an existing site?

The Australian government is also more likely to sponsor the expansion project in my point of view, as it will keep the majority of that cash pile invested in the country & help to secure more than 15,000 jobs directly & indirectly for the lifetime of Olypic Dam. Perhaps readers of the WSJ should think a little more on geo-political terms when voting on nonsensical polls.

Original editorial at MyStockVoice.com

In my post Have A Plan For This Correction I revealed a chart of FCX which could [or could not] be a rising wedge breaking to the downside.  In such a trade I like to compare the chart with

• The overall market direction; is it climbing higher or selling off?
• What about the USD?  Stronger dollar would put pressure on commodities
• Seasonal demand for the commodity; in this case gold and copper
• Check the *fear* gauge.   VIX

These factors can obviously equal your trade spitting into the wind as it it’s June and demand is low but the market is selling off and the VIX is on the rise, gold could skyrocket merely from the fear factor alone so pattern may not be enough.  Check the chart, check those factors and while I’m not advocating shorting FCX, you could select a weakling in the same sector and have similar if not better results.  Good luck

It is the weekend, and that means that our end-of-week screen for unusual options trading activity is complete.  Of course expiration date throws a wrench in any screens, but we found some very unusual options trading in others not tied to options expiration and roll-out trades.  We have provided a link through to each for more color and analysis on the specific options and stock moves at VSInvestor.com:

Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) tanked on high stock volume from the KKR deal this week. But the real impressive area was the unusual options trading.

E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) is under $2.00, yet options trading is looking very active.  Here we gave price triggers to watch out for as possible resistance, if you can use such a thing on a $2.00 stock.

Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) is very rare to see on the unusual stock options list, yet there it was. The big trade was out to January.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) was not just impressive.  It was a huge winner since it was down and then closed up and saw high options and stock trading.  This will be a key watch-list stock for traders this coming week. The options trading may have been a roll-out.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) very active compared to normal volume in options trading, yet not in the stock volume… $1,000 gold is the likely trigger.

Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) was very active in stocks and in options, probably a continued bet that management and operations may need to learn to speak German….

FormFactor Inc. (NASDAQ: FORM) may be a hedge or income trade of some sort, but this is a very odd pattern by any measure.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) saw a bullish bias in the options roll as September-2009 contracts expired.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.  You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week for top day trader alerts, options screens, analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO’s, key secondary offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG

DRYS really popped out on earnings yesterday on impressive volume Yesterday as I continue to hold a long position, stopping just short of my price target.  I am waiting to see if there is more follow through from the move before reducing or closing the position.

DRYS Analysis - Bull Flag

FCX Analysis - Double Top

I’m also checking out FCX which looks very shortable here.  PH short term ascending triangle with overhead at abour $48 and HERO on a pullback to $4 are now under observation.

I spent Thursday-Sunday on a trip to Scotlands West Coast, so I missed out on some intra-day action posts.  A lightning strike has also destroyed my router so my internet at home is down.  This means that trading will be difficult this week, so for just now I’ll cover the performance of last weeks Crystal Balling post.

Quite a so-so week for the market as the indices still hold the neckline of the head and shoulders formation, which is leading into a bear flag formation as the right shoulder forms fully.  I remain bearish for the week ahead (which by the way starts in 20 minutes!), particularly on FCX and AFAM.  JCP will open the week at the support line of the wedge formation, with support from the 200EMA.

Freeport McMoran FCX

FCX gave-up the $45 level on Wednesday, triggering an watchlist entry point, however some buyers came into the frame of the lows and jumped FCX back up to close the week at heavy overhead resistance.  I am very bearish leading into this week on FCX for a few reasons here.  First is obviously the H&S, secondly the short term bear flag formation, thirdly the price will test all overhead EMAs at $47.  Lastly, as FCX forms a new descending channel, it will soon retest the former supportive line of the ascending channel – this time as resistance.  To me, these factors represent a strong reason to short more FCX at the $47 area with a stop slightly above the 50EMA.

FCX Analysis

FCX remains a short-hold with a price target of $37.50 medium to long term.

Almost Family AFAM

Everything looking good here so far with a small rise on decreasing volume indicating the formation of a bear flag pattern.  I also like the rise into resistance at $25 where the moving averages look to press upon the price and force it down further.

AFAM Analysis

I’m actually short here at $24.22 having missed a better entry at $24.70.  My target firstly is $22.50 with a view to $17.50 in the longer term.  Stops at $25.25 here.

JC Penney JCP

No entry signal here as JCP continues to stay within the wedge boundaries.  I would like to see the support give way on volume after a failure of the 200EMA.  The same chart from the watchlist post applies here.  Market has just opened for Monday, JCP at a real key level today for me, as per this chart;

Key level for JCP

A very dull week for the descriptive alerts, with RIG the only stock that looks interesting at the moment.  I would like to scale in short beginning at $70.  Bit of a drawdown on watchlist profits, but minimal.  Down to only 3 main stocks on the list and a lack of computer access.

These are the top ten pre-market analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have seen from Wall Street analysts this Wednesday morning with about two and a half hours until the market opens:

• Air Products (APD) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
• Chattem (CHTT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
• Citrix Systems (CTXS) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
• Photronics (PLAB) Raised to Buy at UBS.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
• SAP (SAP) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
• Southern Copper (PCU) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
• STMicro (STM) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill.
• Starwood Hotels (HOT) Cut to Underperform at Baird.

JON C. OGG
JULY 8, 2009

Two stocks triggering their entry signals as I write: FCX and AFAM.  FCX is forming a full head and shoulders formation, while AFAM has retested $25 as resistance and looks set to sell off from the descending triangle.

Stop in AFAM at $25.50, long term targets at $20 and $17.50.  Really need to see a drop below $45 in FCX soon for this head and shoulders to kick in.  If this happens, the follow through could be as low as $30 long term, with shorter term targets at $40.

AFAM entry

FCS head and shoulders

My aim for this week was to focus on one or two tickers for the next week, however I have ended up with quite a sizable watchlist.  This is because of two things; firstly, there are quite a few nice setups, and secondly, I have a lot of spare time on my hands as I look to start my career.  As it stands there are about 10 tickers on the list, but expect a cull as I write down what I think on them.  Quality not quantity.

My general view of the market is bearish from what’s I’ve seen since I got back into the game.  There are a lot of continuation patterns that have followed reversal patterns, particularly in the stocks I was watching in the past 2 watchlists.  The bullish run has petered out over the weeks I’ve been away and it looks like the indices are just completing a head and shoulders formation.  FAZ is also showing a nice basing pattern, so my medium term outlook is short.

AFAM – Almost Family Inc.

Very clean descending wedge formation with a succession of lower highs which led into a high volume 11% slaughter on Thursday.  This scenario is very bearish, and I anticipate further decline.  My entry here is a re-test of the former $25 support range as new resistance.  The target for this formation is; base price – (wedge high-base price) – 25-(32.5-25)=$17.50.

AFAM Analysis - Descending Wedge

This is a longer term swing trade opportunity that represents a strong risk:reward ratio.  Prior to the target, the next support level looks like it is around $20.  This level would be a good level to take some profits off the table and implement a profit taking stop on the remainder.  I have included AFAM despite the low average volume, due to the clarity of the formation and the large volume sell-off.  This stock is hard to borrow, so this setup might not be trad-able.

Freeport Mcmoran – FCX

Like the markets, FCX is closing in on a full head and shoulders reversal pattern.  The key level for FCX is $45.  This is the neckline of the formation, as well as the former high that led into the 123 move in mid May.  The price has found support at the 200EMA lately, however all of the MAs are tangled up as the stock is no longer in an up trend.

FCX Analysis - Head & Shoulders

I am looking to sell FCX at under $45 featuring selling pressure.  The long term target is $30 from the H&S measured move, while the next support level is at $37.50 where I would look to take partial profits.

J C Penney – JCP

JCP is a terrific stock for technical analysis due to the transparency in the patterns and reliability of measured moves – which are generally very accurate.  I tracked this shortly after a breakout in early April, and since then it hit the price target on the nose before retreating.  At the moment JCP is forming a triangular top formation.

JCP Analysis - Triangle

JCP shed some weight on Thursday after a 3 day wicking rejection of the triangle resistance line in the preceding days.  However, JCP does have strong 200EMA support which has coincided with the support line in the past 3 attempts.  I am bearish on JCP, and anticipate a failure of the support line in the next retest, with a price target first of the gap fill at $23.  I will look to short on this setup with a $1 stop.  $23 could come quickly in this setup.

Here are the rest of the tickers I was going to cover in-depth this week, these are best suited for descriptive coverage so check the charts.

FLR – 200 and 50EMA support as it retested prior 123 support at $47.50 before a strong close.  Potential descending wedge formation here.  Would look to short on a close below $47.50 with targets at $42.50 and $40.   Dollar stop on small size.

ISLE – Bull flag formation with trading range of $13.50-$10.50 but volume too low for me.

PENN – Descending triangle formation still holding 200EMA.  Looks very bearish to me, but volume also too low.

RIG – Rough week for oil as RIG sits precariously on the neckline of yet another H&S formation.

UNG – Lots of interest in UNG as it failed a support line on Thursday.  Heading for a double bottom retest at $12.75.  Highly watched at the moment, and probably not the best option for a swing  trade.

These are the top ten analyst calls of upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have seen from Wall Street early this Wednesday morning with more than two hours until the market opens:

• ADTRAN (ADTN) Started as Buy at Auriga.
• Alliance Data (ADS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Boeing (BA) Cut to Underperform at Oppenheimer.
• China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (LFC) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• Deutsche Bank (DB) Raised to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
• EMC Corp. (EMC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
• Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
• Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery Scott.
• MEMC (WFR) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Riverbed Technology (RVBD) Started as Market Perform at FBR.

Jon C. Ogg
June 24, 2009

Last week seven automakers embarked on a drive from Chula Vista, CA, to Vancouver, B.C. in 12 high-tech fuel cell cars and SUVs. On Monday the convoy rolled through Seattle, and I met up with them at the Propel biodiesel station. You can’t actually fill up with hydrogen at Propel, but you know, it’s green…

Anyway, I got a chance to check out all the cars, and then I was able to take the Honda FCX Clarity for a drive. I wanted to drive the Honda because it was the only vehicle in the convoy that was designed from the ground up as a hydrogen vehicle. The rest of the cars and SUVs on this drive had been retrofitted with the technology.

Continue reading after the jump!

So what can I tell you about the Clarity? It drives like a car. Or a hybrid. Cause that’s what it is—an electric/hydrogen hybrid. External dimensions are somewhere between the Accord and Civic, but inside it’s bigger than an Accord, thanks to the small motor, fuel cell stack and battery. The ride is great. The direct drive tranny is super cool and the power delivery is very smooth. Honestly, it’s pretty quick. Ryan Harty, the engineer riding with me, told me that the Clarity does 0-60 in 9 seconds. All in all, very pleasant, and I think it looked pretty sharp in the Star Garnet Metallic paint, which is exclusive to the Clarity. The wheels are kind of cool, too. Honda is building 200 of these vehicles, which are available for lease in the So Cal area (the only place you can currently fuel up with hydrogen). They lease for $600 per month—not cheap, but it will definitely trump your neighbor’s Prius.

These are some of the top analyst upgrades and positive research calls which we have seen from Wall Street early this Thursday morning:

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Expedia (EXPE) Started as Buy at Soleil.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Juniper Networks (JNPR) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Kellogg (K) Started as Outperform at RBC.
Lincoln National (LNC) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) Started as Buy at Soleil.
Taleo (TLEO) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Treehouse Foods (THS) Started as Outperform at William Blair.

JON C. OGG

Now this is what really bad news looks like. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX) reported first quarter 2009 EPS of $0.11 on net income of $43 million, compared with EPS of $2.64 and net income of $1.1 billion in the first quarter a year ago. Revenue was $2.6 billion, compared with $5.67 billion in 2008.

Analysts weren’t expecting much, and they got even less. Thomson Reuters’ estimates averaged $0.13, and revenue estimates averaged $2.69 billion. Operating income for the quarter totaled $672 million, against $2.4 billion a year ago. Expectations for Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX), which reports next week, and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG), which reports the week after that, are not much better.

Freeport’s average realized prices fell 53% for copper, 3% for gold, and 64% for molybdenum compared with prices a year ago. The company’s chairman and its CEO touted Freeport’s “successful execution of our revised operating plans to reduce costs and capital spending.”

For all of 2009, Freeport expects to sell 3.9 billion pounds of copper, 2.3 million ounces of gold, and 50 million pounds of molybdenum. Second quarter estimates total 955 million pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold, and 11 million pounds of molybdenum. That is pretty flat to the first quarter for copper and molybdenum, but anticipates an increase of over 100,000 ounces in gold sales. Capital spending for 2009 is planned at $1.3 billion, falling to $1 billion in 2010.

Gold may still be viewed as the ultimate flight to quality and as the ultimate inflation hedge.  It looks more and more as though this is yet another example that the same cannot be said about the companies which are in charge of extracting and mining gold.

Freeport shares are down about 3% in pre-market trading this morning, to $39.51. The stock’s 52-week range is $15.70-$127.24.

Paul Ausick
April 22, 2009