Image credit: Kaihsu Tai

Earlier this week, the Royal Society in London played host to a two-day discussion meeting entitled “The detection of extra-terrestrial life and the consequences for science and society”. As that title suggests, the talks were wide-ranging, with subjects from the evolution of organic matter in space to the implications of the discovery of extra-terrestrial life for religion and theology. (In case you were wondering, the evolution of organics in space can be remarkably complex, and theists think that there won’t be much of an impact on their own beliefs, but other religions will be in trouble.)

Astronomy Now magazine has published a good set of articles covering the meeting in some detail (day one, day two).

Image credit: NRAO

There’s a short interview with SETI scientist Frank Drake over at New Scientist. In typical fashion, when asked whether broadcasting powerful signals into space might elicit an invasion, he answered:

Yes, and if that happens it might be my fault! Back in 1974 I broadcast a signal from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico, which is still the strongest signal ever sent. That stimulated a major outburst from the Astronomer Royal at the time. He was very concerned.

I am one who believes that everyone should be aware of what is going on in their town governments; as it is the actions of these people who will have the greatest effect on our daily lives. I follow the actions of local officials and candidates. In doing so, I must say that I am voting for Vivian Jones, Margaret Stinnett and Frank Drake for re-election to their respective offices. Like the vast majority of residents in Wake Forest I have not lived here very long, but I have lived here long enough to know that they are a good choice. Not only a good choice in that they are all going to win, but that they will continue to do a superb job for the citizens of Wake Forest.

Wake Forest has many community related events and at these events, I see Mayor Jones, Commissioners Stinnett and Drake not just shaking babies and kissing hands,{campaign humor} but each of them engaging the public with their thoughts and input on the workings of Wake Forest. Even during these tough economic times, they have worked hard to maintain services with out an increase in the tax rates, paying the debts properly and putting the bonded monies to their intended use.

. I was surprised that when their opponents announced their campaigns, they felt that the incumbents had done a pretty good job. Now their opponents are attacking the three of them for doing a pretty good job The reference to the New Town Hall as being a Taj Ma Hall quite frankly infuriates me because the last time I heard that reference, was in 1988 where the mayor of the town that I lived in built a new library and his opponents did not think the town needed one. That town’s library in 1988 was the size of Wake Forest Elementary’s Library servicing a town that was twice the size of Wake Forest now. Ironically those naysayers have since tried to take the credit for the library. That town’s library did not have the resources of a county wide system either. The current town hall was built at a time when there were only about two thousand people living here. It is foolish to believe that the new facility is not needed. Mayor Jones, Commissioners Drake and Stinnett have done an admirable job of managing the growth and working for the community.

I follow politics and policy like normal people follow sports and I will say this, it is a rare opportunity to vote for individuals because of their good work. I usually have to vote for people because their opponents are worse. I believe their opponents are good people, but they have not given me a reason to vote for them; nor have they given me a reason to vote against the incumbents. I encourage everyone to go to the polls on Election Day and join me in voting for Mayor Jones and Commissioners Stinnett and Drake.

… zuvor ging’s kurz darum, was denn so von unserer Erdenzivilisation an elektromagnetischer Strahlung entfleucht ist ….

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Und was, wenn das erste außerirdische Signal, das wir auf der Erde empfangen, ebenfalls ein kosmischer Werbespot ist?

Drake: Einer meiner schlimmsten Alpträume ist, dass wir ein Signal auffangen, das sich als Werbung für einen religiösen Kult herausstellt.

Dem ist kaum etwas hinzuzufügen.

Sulla questione delle forme di vita extraterrestre, sono un agnostico. Anzi, neppure un agnostico: un ignorante dichiarato.

Attualmente non abbiamo nessuna prova dell’esistenza di esseri alieni. E questo già di per sé dovrebbe essere sufficiente per non credere che ne esistano: in assenza di prove la posizione secondo cui «c’è vita là fuori» ne esce certamente indebolita. Ma poiché l’assenza di prove non è prova di assenza, dobbiamo cercare altre argomentazioni.

Il nostro ragionamento non potrà che appoggiarsi dunque che su basi probabilistiche. E qui dobbiamo andarci cauti, ché è facilissimo prendere fischi per fiaschi quando si maneggiano numeri astronomici – letteralmente.

L’argomentazione più diffusa per giustificare l’esistenza degli alieni è: «L’Universo è così grande che è improbabile che siamo l’unica forma di vita esistente!». La scienza non può però muoversi con passo spannometrico: ha bisogno di fatti, dati e misure. Un tentativo di calcolare il numero di intelligenze aliene è stato fatto da Frank Drake con la sua eponima equazione, in cui ogni fattore è un parametro che restringe il numero di possibili contatti con gli extraterrestri. Con i valori ipotizzati da Drake il risultato è di 10 intelligenze con cui è possibile, in via teorica e probabilistica, un contatto. Curiosamente, se trascuriamo i fattori relativi all’intelligenza, rimane comunque un numero di 10. Ovvero: stando ai dati di Drake, ci sarebbero dieci pianeti ricchi di vita nell’Universo.

I secchioni della Wikipedia in inglese hanno cercato di rifare i calcoli con i dati più recenti. Qualche volta, però, hanno dovuto comunque attenersi ai dati, non sempre giustificati, di Drake. Hanno ottenuto un risultato di 2,31. Ovvero, adesso ci dovrebbero essere due civiltà sufficientemente avanzate per comunicare con altri pianeti. E una siamo noi terrestri.

Anche in questo caso otteniamo 2,31 se trascuriamo gli ultimi fattori. Pur prendendo con le molle tale risultato, non dovremmo aspettarci dunque che ci siano molti altri pianeti ricchi di vita. E se questo numero è davvero così piccolo da stare sulle dita di una mano, ci sarà stato un periodo della storia dell’Universo in cui la vita era apparsa su un solo pianeta e dunque è esistito un pianeta che poteva fregiarsi del titolo di Unico Pianeta Abitato dell’Universo. (E perché dovremmo escludere a priori che quel pianeta sia stato, o sia tuttora, la Terra?)

È però da notare che l’equazione di Drake lascia il tempo che prova. È una formula empirica dalla validità indimostrata e la critica che xkcd le muove non è priva di fondamento:

Da “xkcd” di Randall Munroe. (Licenza Creative Commons)

Ma, alla fine di questo ragionamento, che cosa ci rimane in mano? Un sospetto, un «secondo me» soltanto. E fintantoché noi siamo alla ricerca di un fatto (se esistano o no esseri viventi alieni), non è il sentore che fa testo. Non ha senso dire: «Per me gli alieni esistono». Se gli extraterrestri esistono davvero, è un fatto che prescinde dalle nostre opinioni.

Non sono neppure “agnostico“, perché non dico che l’esistenza degli alieni sia indimostrabile. Sono solo un ignorante: non so, e finché non so, non ha senso che mi esprima.

My mom and my angel, the one person who has given me truly unconditional love my whole life
My dad and his wife Lotte
My sister for being crazy and loving
My family in general. All very sweet people. I’m fortunate to know them
My beautiful pet friends for giving me so much love and receiving mine
Naja Christensen, for always being my best friend through 20 years, and her beautiful daughter Natascha Laumann for always being my cute dotier
Annette Hansen, for great times, great talks and keeping in contact when I was too busy to do it
Pernille & Michael Viehweg, for having some great times
Pernille Svendsen, for always being dear friend no matter how seldom we see each other
Louise Loubu Poulsen, for having some really fun times and keeping in contact when I couldn’t
Lisa Rosdahl for having great times and doing my makeup
Heidi Zadeh, for being my very good friend and a very positive input in my day
Talal Osram & Noor Yassin for being such beautiful souls and dear friends
Samir Cuhtait & Angelina for being sweet, funny and supportive
Mohamed ‘Dany Raï’ Bellajrou for being a kind creature
Faisal Kamal, for sharing some fun times for 12 years
Brian Sode for being such a kind guy. And his new wife for making a nice guy happy
Amer Kamal, for being a wise and kind friend, also during hard times
All my other close friends through time. You have made my life funny, interesting, entertaining, serious and incredible
Kind schoolmates on my different studies through time
School teachers for giving me a lot of knowledge
Kind colleagues on my different workplaces through time
My clients, models and other collaborators who are always kind and nice people
Francisco, EJ and Darla Blanchard for having such a great time during their visit
People who are not so kind, for showing me what I must remember not to become
People who extremely kind and loving, for showing me what I must aspire to become

And all of my great friends on Ecademy and other networks.
I treasure you all.

Roy Krymis
Frank Drake
Kutay f.Helvacioglu
Pamela Mayer
Karthik Tantri
Peter Wolfe
Lindy Wafula
Janne J. Korhonen
Alexander Gerwer
George Joseph
Melinda M. Sorensson
Roger Ings
Mikkel Pitzner
Gerner Petersen
Kenneth Yukich
Mubashar Rashid
Mindy Gibbins-Klein
Bjørn Guldager
Adrian Higgs
Danny Jackson
Les Csonge
Alex Edward George Pedersen
Ron G Holland
Nic Oliver
Barbara Nugent
Sharon Connolly
Paul Joosten
Jason Collins
Jawad Ahmad
Thomas Power
Sir Dr David Menitz
Michael Holm
SUMANT BHATIA
A Wali Zahid
Warren Mason
Will Liversidge
Stephen Payne
Andreas Nemeth
Paul Wigley
Gareth Emberton
Ken Passmore
Chee Keong Lee
Paul Clargo
Andrew Brine
Patricia Tolivar
Chris Calogirou
jet rotmans
Carolyn Williams
Penny Power
John Cassidy

Here’s a youtube excerpt from Carl Sagan’s Cosmos: A Personal Voyage. A 13 part television series first broadcast in 1980. It’s apparently been seen by over 600million people in 60 different countries[1] The series covers everything from the beginning of the Universe to the formation of stars and planets to the evolution of life on earth. It then continues through the physiology of the brain to our human history, the history of Science and then onto other planets, space travel and extraterrestrials. It’s utterly awe-inspiring and if your not one for reading then definitely grab the series on DVD.

Anyway back to this excerpt, which is about the Drake equation which is one of the more well known equations that attempts to calculate the amount of Alien life in our galaxy. It was developed by Frank Drake at the time from Cornell University.

The equation is as follows:

N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L

R* is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

Back in 1961 When Dr Drake first developed it the parameters used were;

N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10000 = 10

10 Advanced civilizations in our galaxy? That seems fairly plausible. The wikipedia page on this topic has compiled a recent review of these numbers using various sources and comes up with the following:

N = 7 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10000 = 2.31

2.31 I’m not a fan of that at all mainly because although it uses updated parameters for R and fl it keeps others unchanged.

What do you all think? I thought I’d have a go at two differing versions based on the following. The first is an optimistic calculation but I still think it’s based in reality. I’ve increased the planet per systems (I just think planets will be found to be more frequent) However I’ve dropped the amount of those that are capable of supporting life to just above half, fl should be one because If a planet is in the ‘Goldilocks zone’ then why shouldn’t it have life? Just as you’d expect a planet extremely far from the sun with all the wrong elements to not have life. I think intelligence is probably inevitable given enough time. Natural selection is powerful and produces endless forms. Lastly I think if a certain species begins an arms race in intelligence stakes then it should naturally reach its endgame, real and flourishing high-intelligence.

N = 7 × 0.6 × 0.6 × 1 × 0.3 × 1 × 1000 = 756

Optimistic indeed. Plausible though. And here’s my flip-side;

N = 7 × 0.5 × 1 × 0.5 × 0.05 × 0.3 × 500 = 13.1

I just don’t see intelligence developing as such a far-off. Obviously calculations have been made by looking at our Earth and perhaps the percentage of intelligent life (us) versus how many species there are. But that would mean it’s much much lower than 0.01. But I’m basing all this on a theory I have that Aliens will look A LOT! like us and that high-intelligence doesn’t co-develop on a single planet. Just as our ancestors wiped out our early hominid competitors making sure that only one intelligent species roam the lands.

Intelligence develops amongst all social animals that care for their young. Mammals are only one group in this branch. I think the other pre-requisite is being bipeds. When our ancestor hominids started walking on 2 legs, it free’d up their hands for using tools and I think this lead to a positive feedback loop of increased brain capacity which then lead to more complex communication and so on. It’s a distinct pattern that I think will repeat throughout our galaxy and the Universe. Anyway I should probably do a proper write-up on this theory with citations and what not. But for now it’s just wild speculation.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmos:_A_Personal_Voyage

Youtube has an application/gadget that seems as though it uses the tags of previously used videos to find relative videos of the same subject matter. I came across this video in the “recommended for you” section on youtube.  His rap alias is itself a reference to Astrobiology as Oort Kuiper he raps about Astrobiology; the study of life in outer space.  Though the song by itself is not that appealing, the accompanying video makes it very easy to follow the timelines of the development of astrobiology. The video contains a brief summary that includes the contributions from President Kennedy, to the using of the Doppler Shift targeting the most likely places in the galaxy that contains life. Any amateur video always would benefit from its exposure on youtube due to the ease of uploading, tagging, and the audience available around the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NL3lhm6oy5I

Jason and I have spent quite a bit of time over the last few months reimagining Marvel and DC characters, trying to reposition them for success in today’s marketplace. This is something that both companies do on a regular basis. However, alongside searching their vast catalog of characters for ideas, both companies also go back to failed series and try to revamp them. It can be quite a quandary, trying to determine what made a series successful enough to launch but not strong enough to survive long term. Intrigued by this challenge Jason and I also thought we’d take a look at some failed series and try to make them viable for 2009. For our inaugural expedition into the land of failed series, we’ve chosen one of the bright spots of the 1990’s: Marvel’s Nightstalkers.

No doubt all the comics fans out there are now thinking “Of course, the 1990’s. That’s where all the great ideas in comics originated!” <sigh> Oh, you cynical, cynical comics fans. Sure, the 1990’s were full of dark characters with mysterious pasts and no personalities; full of men with huge guns and biceps larger than their heads; full of characters with “Death”, “Dead” and “Blood” as part of their names; full of grim and gritty stories, full of characters choking on their own machismo and testosterone; and full of writers who misunderstood their craft, designing long run-on sentences, separated by semi-colons only, as if that made them grammatically correct. All of this is true. However, there may be some genuinely good ideas in that decade, and Jason and I hope we’ve found one in Nightstalkers.

First, some background. The year is 1992. Marvel has been finding great success with books that have a horror background. Characters such as Blade and Morbius the Living Vampire have joined Ghost Rider on the top of the sales chart; okay, okay, maybe the first two aren’t on top of the sales chart, but the fact that they’ve managed to land anywhere on the sales chart is a pretty miraculous feat. Marvel decides to capitalize on the success of these darker, more horror-oriented series by creating a line of comics under the banner of “Midnight Sons”. Marvel created a few new series for this line of comics and one of those series featured a group of vampire hunters called the Nightstalkers.

The three members of the Nightstalkers were all existing Marvel characters. The most popular one today would be Blade, the half-vampire vampire hunter that we all know thanks to three movies starring Wesley Snipes. However, the first of those three movies was still six years off, and Blade was not well known. He was joined by Hannibal King, a private detective who had been turned into a vampire while on a case, but who hated his condition and had never taken to drinking human blood. The final member of the group was Frank Drake, a normal human whose only claim to fame was that he was a direct descendant of Count Dracula himself. These three had worked together in the past, but had split up. Dr. Strange, who was being mysterious and self-serving, as 90’s comics heroes were wont to be, manipulated the three into re-teaming as the Nightstalkers, and history was made!

Sadly, the book only lasted 18 issues, but it drew on past Marvel continuity, referencing stories from the 1970’s and 1980’s. At the conclusion of the book, all three members of the team were believed dead, but in the intervening decade, they’ve all returned to life in the Marvel Universe.

Horror may not be the draw it was when these comics were introduced, but at the same time, I believe there is a market for it. This book has the potential to stand apart from most of the other series on the shelves today, and I think there may be a glimmer of potential here. Hey, if Buffy can go seven seasons, and enjoy a popular career in comics, with the riff of slaying vampires, surely this concept could work at Marvel as well.

What say you, Jason? Can we make this work?

Was there ever a character named Deathblood? That would’ve been totally awesome! If it doesn’t exist, we should will it into existence. I would read that book until my eyes gave out. Seriously. Imagine the possibilities! There would, of course, be some death…and probably a generous amount of blood. Maybe not necessarily in that order, mind you. I’m seeing a cross between Spawn and Punisher. Oh wait, didn’t Marvel try that with one of its Punisher relaunches? Never mind.

And I missed the part where you explained how Kolchak was involved in the whole team thing. What paragraph was that in?

*AHEM* Anyway…yes I think we could make this work. I’m not sure that the draw is all that strong for another teaming of Blade and a couple relative no-names. I’d rather see a new team put together that combines various expertises and makes sense. I’m not even sure I’d put Blade on the team. I think he’d play better as a form of competition for the group or someone who offers them advice, but can’t really be pulled from his own hectic schedule to assist. There should be a straightforward, non-powered human detective type, some sort of lower level magic wielder, and then someone more creature-based to assist in tracking and the brute strength category. Here’s what I’m thinking: Dominic Fortune, Brother Voodoo and Tigra.

No, seriously.

Stop laughing!

Look, I can explain it all. The title begins with a focus on Fortune. He’s an older man who has given up the pretense of playing the hero. His swashbuckling outfit has been replaced by a drab, ill-fitting gray business suit. Sure, he may have let himself go a bit, but he can still tussle with the best of them if need be. He’s seen his fair share (and then some) of the crap that goes on in a hero-driven society and black clouds continue to follow him. He battled Nazis and zombies (not at the same time). He rescued diplomats from terrorists. He fought alongside the likes of Spider-Man, Iron Man and Silver Sable. Yet after all of these adventures, and even because of them, he still watched his son die in his arms. This singular event has led him down a tragic path of divorce, depression and digging for lost dreams at the bottom of a bottle. To say he’s seen it all would be an understatement. The only logical next step for Fortune, the only thing that will give the rest of his shattered life purpose and help distract him from his own problems, is to help solve the problems of other people. Detective work!

His contacts and experiences take him to all corners of the world, from the classic gothic scenery of Eastern Europe to the mystical realms of deep Asia to the haunted swamps of the American South. Every encounter uncovers another supernatural mystery until he eventually decides that it’s foolish to undertake these things on his own. He needs a team.

Enter Brother Voodoo. He has recently packed up his costumed identity and launched a speaking tour of the country’s institutions of higher learning. Voodoo’s presentations on turn of the century occult figures and their relation to ancient tribal rituals pack auditoriums from coast to coast. With a bit of government consultation on the side, he’s leading a fairly happy lifestyle. That is, until the vivid dreams start keeping him up at night. He sees glimpses of the future: key locations, specific artifacts and blurred figures. Is it coincidence or fate that he bumps into Dominic Fortune on the busy streets of San Francisco one blustery, winter afternoon?

Honestly, that’s all I’ve got.

I really want to shoehorn Tigra in there because she’s been dragged through the mud the last couple years at Marvel. And the team needs a female presence. And Tigra’s pretty cool visually.

Can you do anything with that beginning? Do we need some sort of serious, tangible enemy? I see the whole thing playing out with a hard-boiled noir vibe. The narrator of the series would be Fortune and his dialogue would be blunt and clipped like a Sam Spade voice. I’d really like to tap into a sort of rain-soaked tension where it always seems to be dusk and everything happens in the shadows. Costumes would need to be modified or eliminated outright. Some special technologies would need to be invented, but still remain practical.

Yes? No? Maybe?

Interesting. I’m with you part of the way on this one. I was also going to suggest that we not reteam the original three members on this one, as they don’t quite work for me and I think we could do something more interesting. Your suggestions begin the work of something more interesting, but I have a few ideas for some different paths.

First, Dominic Fortune is a great idea. Wonderful character and he’d fit perfectly into this group. I really like the idea of someone who has seen it all and who doesn’t have any powers, but has skills. He’s burnt out, he’s tired, but deep down, he still wants to do the right thing. I’m good there.

I’m good with Brother Voodoo. He concerns me a little, since his name and costume can seem so silly, but I have always thought that he was an untapped resource in Marvel’s litany of characters and I would appreciate the chance to explore his history, his powers, and who he is as a man. With a darker book, we could go places with voodoo that more mainstream books don’t, and perhaps his costume could be tweaked a little to look more menancing and less like he’s at Mardi Gras.

I’m going to ignore Tigra for now.

So, what I think this group needs is a tie to the past. Hey, call me crazy, but I’d like to see this group tied into those who’ve gone before. I also think that this book needs a main villain to call it’s own. I have a solution to the first problem already. At the end of the previous series, all three stars are presumed dead in an explosion. However, it’s later revealed that Frank Drake (the only completely human member of the group) survived, although the explosion left him scarred and crippled in both body and mind. I’d like Drake to be set up in New Orleans; he has bought an old mansion in the city, one that got badly damaged during Katrina, and he’s been living there. Drake hires Fortune for a case. We don’t know it’s Drake at first; Drake doesn’t want to be seen, as he’s hideously scarred, and he’s also not quite sane anymore. Drake uses intermediaries and rather bizarre and unnecessary procedures to stay hidden from Fortune, but Fortune takes the case, as he needs the money. The case is related to the big bad of the series, and that’s what draws in Fortune.

I’d like to have Fortune encounter Voodoo in New Orleans while on this case. Is it a cliche to have them meet in New Orleans and to have Drumm there in the first place? Possibly, but there’s no denying that Drumm has spent a lot of time in that city, and it is viewed as a place with deep ties to voodoo. Fortune and Drumm end up crossing paths and Fortune asks for Drumm’s help, since Drumm knows not only the city, but the supernatural side of things much better than Fortune does. Drumm has those visions and dreams featuring Fortune that you mentioned above, so he’s willing to comply. As they begin working together, they get drawn deeper and deeper into the unpleasantness of the supernatural badness Drake is involved with, and by the end of the first story arc, they’re committed to staying together and fighting this big bad to the end.

I see Drake remaining as a peripheral member of the cast. Drake is someone who is clearly not completely sane, but he also knows a lot about the supernatural, having fought it his entire life. Still, that explosion changed him, and I don’t think the readers are ever entirely clear who’s side Drake is on. Why keep him around then? Because I think Fortune sees some of himself in Drake. Drake was the only human member of the original Nightstalkers, and while Blade and Hannibal King walked away from the explosion without major repercussions, Drake was mangled beyond repair. Fortune can see how that could be his fate, as he works alongside his two super powered teammates (yes, I haven’t forgotten Tigra) and it terrifies him. At the same time, he also sees the evil and destruction that the supernatural baddies cause, and Fortune feels that they will do even worse to even more normal humans if he doesn’t stand against them.

Does that work for you? In many ways, it’s your original idea. I just added Drake and moved the location. There are two things that we need to solve. The first is who the big bad might be. I don’t know that he would have to be in every issue, but I always like the idea of a monumental evil hovering over our heroes. Drake has been present for the destruction of two different vampire lords: Dracula and Varnae. I’d be tempted to bring Dracula back, as he’s a big name and everyone knows him. However, that feels like it’s been done, back in Marvel’s Tomb of Dracula series. It sure is tempting though, as he’s a fascinating character. If we don’t use Dracula, we could go with the current vampire lord, as Drake might want to destroy the successor to the creatures that ruined his life. Or, it might work better to move into another area of the supernatural and leave the vampires alone for now. Thoughts?

And then there’s Tigra. I agree that she’s been handled poorly by Marvel (which she has been almost throughout her existence with that company) and I agree that the group needs a female. Plus, while superpowered, she’s not overpowered and fits with the group. Finally, her ability to sneak around, her senses, and her close-up fighting style would all fit the feel of the series. So, I like her. However, I’d like to find a hook to bring her in. Do you see one?

It’s tough. Marvel has really painted her into a corner in recent months. She’s been beaten by The Hood’s Syndicate, played as a double-agent during Civil War, and now gotten pregnant by a possibly Skrulled-out Hank Pym. However, if you dig into her past, you’ll find stints as a SHIELD agent, a police officer and a detective (alongside Jessica Drew). She got tangled up in a mystical plot involving Morgan Le Fay, lived in aboriginal lands, ventured around the galaxy with Starfox, was influenced by Agatha Harkness and spent a lot of time alongside Scarlet Witch. Not to mention the fact that her powers and form come from an ancient race of Cat People! Any one of those instances could’ve spawned a connection to associates of Fortune or Drumm. She’s supposedly a member of the Initiative’s Arkansas team now. If we’re fighting the White River Monster or the Bigfoot from The Legend of Boggy Creek, then we’re golden!

On your other embellishments: I don’t mind involving Drake at all and I dig the angle you’ve given him…almost sets him up as the unseen benefactor of the team, the Charlie to their Angels! However, I think it is horribly clichéd to have Fortune and Drumm (and Drake) set up stakes in New Orleans. Too obvious. That’s the reason I pulled Drumm out of the area to begin with. I like the idea of Fortune and Drumm both trying their hands at something other than “superheroing” and then being quasi-involved in it again anyway. Just when I thought I was out…

Back to Tigra…the only thing I can think of to really connect her to our team is to have her announce her pregnancy to a gathering of the rest of her female hero friends. Someone could suggest that she get away to clear her mind. She has already talked about terminating the pregnancy and that alone could lead to her deciding to remove herself from the scene and seek out a quieter existence somewhere else. I don’t want to force a coincidence into the structure (because I hate it when teams are brought together for no apparent reason), but we could create a plot point that has all threeof these characters in the same place at the same time for three completely different reasons. I mean, I had Fortune and Drumm literally bumping into each other. Granted, Drumm was having visions and has that mystical background so he knew how to deal with the encounter. I dunno. Heroes always seem to find fights wherever they go!

As for the villain, I’m very tired of vampires. And zombies. Werewolves aren’t completely played out yet…skeletons…mummies. Maybe the team is debunking monsters of urban legends? Maybe the main baddie is Morgan Le Fay battling Drake for his bloodline. Or Drake could’ve run afoul of the Cat People during his rehab period (hence Tigra’s involvement…fighting on the opposite side at first?). Perhaps we merge two of the Midnight Sons titles and incorporate the Darkhold into this one (I know we mentioned it in our Defenders revamp last year too)?

Let’s dwell on that for a moment…

I understand your hesitation in using New Orleans, and I suggested it for two main reasons. First, I think that there’s certainly a lot of atmosphere and mood that’s inherent in the setting, which would be great for a horror themed title such as this one. Second, I think that, after the devastation of Katrina, New Orleans has emerged as an interesting urban area with a lot of stories to tell, as people rebuild and the city continues to redefine itself for the 21st century. Still, I don’t have a problem relocating them elsewhere. San Francisco doesn’t thrill me simply because it’s where the X-Men currently are, and I’d hate for them to cross paths, although there are approximately 20 gazillion heroes in New York, and they rarely cross paths with each other. I’d like a city with more atmosphere and the potential for horror. Boston springs to mind, but we had suggested that for our Strange revamp, and Strange would run in the same circles as this group, so it makes it implausible that they would all be in the same city and not meet. I can’t think of another city off the top of my head that would have the necessary atmosphere, and San Francisco certainly does have atmosphere, with the winds and the fog and the older areas of the city, so that works for me.

So, Fortune comes there at the behest of Drake, and he runs into Drumm, who has been having some odd visions and dreams that include Fortune anyway, so the two of them are now working together. Tigra, meanwhile, has taken a leave of absence from the Initiative to deal with her child. Honestly, I hate the idea of her being pregnant, and I don’t care whose kid she’s carrying. It just doesn’t fit Tigra, who seems, at her best, to be so strong and independent. One could make the argument that a child would mature the character and there could be a lot of plots spinning out of the child, but honestly, they’re not plots I’m either interested in telling or reading. Generally, I think introducing children hurts books. It works for a group like the Fantastic Four, because it reinforces the idea that they are a family, and all you’re doing is expanding that family, but for a loner like Tigra….no, it doesn’t work for me.

So, I believe that Tigra takes a leave from the Initiative and deals with the child. Does she have an abortion? We can leave that open to debate and never show it. I think she would, but if you don’t want to court controversy, she could have simply miscarried. I mean, she’s a member of the race of Cat People and the father was a Skrull. What are the chances that these two species would even be able to procreate? It seems that such a pregnancy would be difficult to carry to term, and a miscarriage is quite likely. So, the baby is gone, and she’s trying to find herself and center herself after the recent events in her life.

I’d like to integrate Tigra more seamlessly into the team, rather than just having her pass by the scene of a fight, have her join Fortune and Drumm, and then have her decide to join their group. Yes, such things happen, but I think that you give your group a certain cohesion if you can give everyone a reason to stay, and Tigra really wouldn’t have one. Tigra does have a few connections to the world of the supernatural, and I spent quite a bit of time trying to work a plot around the cat people. I think that such a plot is possible, but I also think that I have little interest in it. I’m not sure why, but the cat people have always struck me as being somewhat cheesy. Possibly this is because I’ve only ever seen them in the West Coast Avengers comic, drawn by Al Milgrom, and everyone looks cheesy when he draws them (that’s not as much of a slam as it sounds; Milgrom’s work is very clear and he can tell a story well, but his West Coast Avengers issues had a certain “old school” look to them that made the book seem like a slightly cheesy 70s title. This look worked perfectly with the stories Steve Englehart was telling, and their run on West Coast Avengers is without a doubt the high point of the entire series for me, but that being said, I still have problems reconciling the Cat People Milgrom drew with the ones that we would have in a horror title). More importantly, they’re not much of a draw for anyone, and I still think that this title needs more name recognition.

Tigra’s other supernatural contact, Morgan Le Fay, doesn’t have tons of name recognition, but she has more than the Cat People. Moreover, I think there’s a story here. Morgan Le Fay is a woman from the past, who was born and lives during the time of King Arthur. However, she seems to have a fascination with, and desire to move to, the present day. Many of her schemes have centered around the present day, and she even attempted to take control of the body of Jessica Drew in an attempt to live in the present day. Morgan Le Fay has crossed paths twice with Tigra, and has decided that Tigra will be the perfect conduit for her. The first time she met Tigra, they were battling to stop Le Fay from taking over the body of Jessica Drew. As defeat loomed for Le Fay, she mystically implanted a lifeline in Tigra. This lifeline provides Le Fay with a tether to the present day, one she can use to monitor our world, and for short periods, to manifest in our time. Why choose Tigra? Two reasons: Tigra’s association with the Cat People gives her a touch of the supernatural, making it easier for Le Fay’s lifeline to take hold. Plus, Tigra was peripheral. She didn’t seem that important, and so Le Fay hoped her lifeline would go undetected.

As an aside, it was this lifeline that caused Tigra to revert to her feral form during her time with the West Coast Avengers, during Byrne’s tenure on the title. The mystic energy of Le Fay threw her Cat People/Human balance out of whack, reverting her to a feline.

Le Fay has been busy with other plots in the past, but now she is going to use this lifeline. Le Fay wants to possess the Darkhold, something she has tried to obtain in the past. She’s been thwarted in her attempts to steal the Darkhold in her time, so she’s decided to steal it in the present. Le Fay then becomes the big bad of the series, trying to collect the various pages of the Darkhold while our group tries to stop her. Not every adventure would revolve around her or her quest, but she would always be there in the background, scheming and plotting.

In any case, Le Fay would be subconsciously directing Tigra to San Francisco, since that’s where one of the pages of the Darkhold is. Drake knows someone is after the page, so he sends Fortune after it, and Fortune runs into Drumm, and they all run into Tigra. At first, I would keep the lifeline a secret. We don’t know who is sending people after the Darkhold. We also don’t know that there’s anything wrong with Tigra, and when she joins the group, she does it for another reason; possibly just because she feels like this is a good place to be while she figures out her life. We can dole this information out in small doses, before doing a big reveal.

Whew. Thoughts?

Wow. Did you just make all that stuff up about Morgan Le Fay or was that actually already written into previous plots? If it’s all you, then that’s an impressive way to wrap up a bunch of divergent stories in a way that forms some sort of logic, albeit comic-based. That’s no small feat in itself! However, you took it all a step further and actually incorporated my bizarre, fractured thoughts on villains and subplots into the whole thing too. You’d make a damn good editor. I need to win Powerball so we can start our own comic publishing business!

Morgan Le Fay and her pursuit of the Darkhold are the perfect catalysts for this team to come together. Drake sends Fortune to retrieve pages. Le Fay subconsciously sends Tigra for the same thing. And Drumm shows up to find Fortune and help him explain the visions. Perhaps he senses a “disturbance in The Force,” so to speak. No one knows that Tigra is acting as a double agent of sorts, not even Tigra. And, to be honest, no one knows why Drake is trying to collect the Darkhold pages either. There could be a vicious twist hidden in this whole thing.

I would also see an instant connection between Fortune and Tigra, one where she sees him as a father figure. They’ve both been through a lot, culminating in the loss of a child for each. Tigra is a rather old character too, tracing roots back to a pre-feline run as The Cat…she’s more of a contemporary to Fortune than Brother Voodoo. Voodoo, however, has the strongest connection to the types of threats the group is facing and is able to function on a level closer to Drake himself. I like the potential interactions among the group. Good energy there.

As for location, I completely forgot that the X-Men were now in San Fran. We did put Strange up in Boston during our revamp. So, sticking within our own version of the Marvel Universe and our initiative to “spread the wealth” when it comes to hero concentrations, we should probably find another spot for this group to at least be based out of. I agree that we need a location that has the atmosphere necessary for a horror-esque title. Seattle has the weather, but not really the type of history we need. New Orleans is just overplayed for me and the recent Hellstorm miniseries took place there too. Aside from Boston, New England is fairly nondescript. The midwest is blah (and we placed Moon Knight in Chicago and another adventure in Kansas). What about somewhere in the Antebellum South that ISN’T New Orleans? I’m thinking specifically of Charleston, South Carolina. It’s a very old city that has dealt with everything from pirates to slavery to multiple wars with multiple nations. There’s a cultural diversity there similar to New Orleans with many religions and ethnicities, even a unique African-American subset of the population with their own dialect and traditions (could be something that draws Brother Voodoo in). Charleston is also a place with both military and smuggling backgrounds which could play into a lot of secrecy and mystery. So that’s my solution to our location dilemma.

I like the sound of this new Nightstalkers book.

Yes, that was all me with Morgan Le Fay and it took more research than I’ve had to do on one of these in a while. Still, I can’t believe how much fun I’ve had resurrecting a stupid 90’s title like Nightstalkers! I had no idea where we were going to go with this when we started, except I knew that I didn’t want to reunite the original three members of the team. I think we’ve created a very strong book, with the potential for some great character interactions and some really surprising twists for the readers. I love the idea of Drake wanting the pages, and the readers not really being sure why. Is he trying to protect the world from the evil of the Darkhold, or does he have a more sinister agenda?

I also think that Charleston is an interesting choice for a setting. Once you said that, I was tempted to counter with a city that I had forgotten about until you mentioned Charleston: Savannah Georgia, which I think conjures up even more of an atmosphere. However, Charleston is much fresher and an area that hasn’t ever really been tapped, so I agree that we should go with that.

I think one of the things I like about this book is that it would really help two characters. Tigra is a character that has grown on me over the years. She is, in many ways, a very real person. She’s been sometimes written as a one-dimensional flirt, but when a writer really delves into who she is, we find that she’s someone trying to do their best, who doesn’t always find the life of a hero to be an easy one. When Jim Shooter had her join the Avengers decades ago, we saw her falter and run in the face of dangerous menaces. When Steve Englehart used her in the West Coast Avengers, we saw her fighting her cat side, and even contemplating murder to accomplish her goals. She’s not larger than life, and she’s not perfect, but she does try to do the right thing, and she needs a book where she’ll get time in the spotlight (as she tends to be ignored in team books) and get a chance to show what sort of hero she can be.

I also like giving Brother Voodoo a chance to be more than a supporting character. He’s been around the Marvel Universe for decades, either starring in obscure zuvembie stories in the 1970s, or playing sidekick to more powerful magic wielders in later years. I think Marvel has never been entirely comfortable portraying voodoo in their comics, and their discomfort surely hasn’t done Voodoo any favors as far as finding him a permanent home. Perhaps because of this, he’s never been truly explored, either in his abilities as a practitioner of Voodoo, or in his personality. I think this book would be the perfect home to do both those things.

I almost always come away from these revamps thinking that the one I’ve just done is my favorite, but I have to admit, I really like this one.

One of the classic speculations of astronomy and biology is the uniqueness or likelihood of intelligent life in the universe. Dr. Frank Drake who is now Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at University of California proposed, in 1960, a mathematical framework to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. The equation, now known as the Drake Equation.

What’s fascinating about the equation are the kinds of variables Drake chose as contributors to the existence of a civilization. In this video, astronomer Carl Sagan describes the equation’s components and its implications to the existence of intelligent life in the galaxy:

Come up with your own estimate of life using the Drake Equation using this interactive version from Nova.

How accurate is the Drake Equation? That’s the problem. No one can really say at this point–although it does provide a plausible framework. Most of the variables are just simply guesses. Criticisms of the Drake Equation in wikipedia:

Criticism of the Drake equation follows mostly from the observation that several terms in the equation are largely or entirely based on conjecture. Thus the equation cannot be used to draw firm conclusions of any kind. As T.J. Watson states:

The Drake equation consists of a large number of probabilities multiplied together. Since each factor is guaranteed to be somewhere between 0 and 1, the result is also guaranteed to be a reasonable-looking number between 0 and 1. Unfortunately, all the probabilities are completely unknown, making the result worse than useless.

Likewise, in a 2003 lecture at Caltech, Michael Crichton, a science fiction author, stated:

The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. [...] As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless…

One reply to such criticism is that experiments by SETI scientists do not attempt to address the Drake equation for the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations anywhere in the universe, but are focused on specific, testable hypotheses (i.e., “do extraterrestrial civilizations communicating in the radio spectrum exist near sun-like stars within 50 light years of the Earth?”).

Another reply to such criticism is that even though the Drake equation currently involves speculation about unmeasured parameters, it stimulates dialog on these topics. Then the focus becomes how to proceed experimentally.

The Drake Equation is simply another one of those questions that have to wait for more advanced instruments, theories, and discoveries in order to shed more insight. Meanwhile we can only guess.

In 1960 Dr Frank Drake attempted to create a way to guess how many intelligent civilisations like our own would arise in our galaxy and in the universe. The question of if we’re alone has driven astronomy and space exploration for centuries and is one of the greatest unanswered questions we have left.

What Drake wanted to do was to try and work out how likely it was that we’d ever make contact with another civilisation, or if the probability of intelligence arising was so remote that we’d spend our time very much alone. The result of his attempts is the now famous Drake Equation, the formula that essentially powers SETI and helps astronomers to focus their searches for artificial signals in the universe.

The Drake equation works backwards, looking at each factor that has lead to intelligent life evolving on Earth and then trying to predict how likely each event is to occur again elsewhere. By breaking down the factors leading to the evolution of intelligent life it is believed that we’ll be able to narrow down the search, hopefully with greater chances of success.

The Drake Equation is composed of seven parts, each thought to be a contributing factor as to how easy it is for an intelligent species to arise. A crucial factor to remember is SETI’s definition of intelligent life. The search is focusing on finding another species in the galaxy that is capable and willing to communicate through radio transmission or some other form of electromagnetic radiation. Using Earth as an analogy for life elsewhere it is assumed that as we leak radio transmission into the galaxy, then so would another species.

The problem with looking for radio transmissions is that it assumes two things. One is that an intelligent race will use radio for communication and be leaking it into the galaxy. The other is that they will continue to use it. It is actually very cost-ineffective to broadcast in all directions, and we can see this on Earth where broadband and fibre optic cables are now the new standard.

Soon we will leak very little information into space as we focus all communication in its intended directions. If we again use Earth as an example it could be said that any species just a few decades ahead of us in technological development would no longer leak radio into the cosmos, and a species a hundred years younger would not have developed radio yet. By looking for radio transmissions we’re looking for a narrow space in a species’ development, however it is assumed for the purpose of the equation that the alien life we’re looking for are willing communicators and would let themselves be known, much like us.

The Drake equation is written as N = R starred x fp x ne x fl x fi x fx x L. N is the number of civilisations in the Milky Way with which communication may be possible. The other figures are the factors that are considered vital for the appearance of intelligent life, based on observations in our own Solar System and what we know of life on Earth.

R starred is the rate of star formation in the galaxy. Currently the figure for this is put at seven per year. Life cannot exist without a star, and so this is seen as the first step. Fp is the fraction of stars that form that support planets. As we discover more exoplanets by the week this number is creeping up and up, current estimates put the figure at around 0.5, but the figure is certain to rise. Our current technology is only reliable at detecting Jupiter size planets, but once we start finding Earth analogs in other solar systems we’ll have a much better grasp of how many planets there are for potential aliens to evolve on.

Ne is the number of those planets where life can be supported. Life as we know it requires liquid water, which requires a certain temperature band known as the habitable zone. Life also requires an atmosphere, which only a planet meeting certain criteria will be able to hold. Based on observations of the Solar System we see only one planet orbiting that is capable of supporting liquid water on its surface and therefore, life. It is thought that Mars may once have had water on the surface, but due to its low mass it has lost must of its atmosphere and so water cannot stay as a liquid on the surface.

The next figure, Fl, is for how many of those planets that are capable of supporting life will develop life. On Earth we find life everywhere there’s water. Even without light at the bottom of the sea, or buried deep in layers of arctic ice, if we find water there’s at the very least bacteria. This suggests that if conditions are right then life is certain to arise, putting Fl at a value of 1.

Fi and Fc look at the chance of intelligent life evolving and then being willing to communicate with other planets. On Earth only one species in the four and a half billion year history of the planet has evolved intelligence and radio technology, which puts these figures quite low. Again, these guesses have a certain degree of bias as we only have one example to look at. It may prove that if life starts on a planet that the path to sentience is inevitable. It may also prove an extremely rare event, we won’t know for sure and so these figures are largely guesswork.

L is the number of years that the civilisation will last. Currently this figure is set at 10,000 years. Given that mankind has already developed the capability to destroy ourselves through nuclear weapons (developed just seven years after radio astronomy) it might be guessed that the self destructive ability goes hand in hand with interstellar communication. Our civilisation teetered on the brink of nuclear war during the Cold War, and the threat, while greatly reduced, has not entirely evapourated.

Given that some civilisations that develop the capability to destroy themselves will destroy themselves then it cannot be assumed that once intelligent life has evolved that it will last indefinitely. L is a guess, but is used to guess the window in which we have to communicate with a species from their development of communication to their eventual downfall.

Using Drake’s estimations the figure for the number of species able to communicate with us in the Milky Way is 10. The Milky Way contains between 200 and 400 billion stars, so the chances of finding an alien species are around one in thirty billion. Different estimates of parts of the equation will give higher values. For example if L is set to 50,000 years then there are 50 civilisations in the Milky Way. More optimistic outlooks can set the number of communicating aliens at 5,000 per galaxy.

The figure can change wildly depending on the number plugged into the equation, and at SETI they’re working on minimising the guesswork for each of the factors to help them narrow their search. With any luck we’ll find our first alien broadcast within the next few decades, and if we do, a lot of the success will be attributed to the Drake equation.

Almeno 10 civiltà evolute nella Via Lattea

Ci sono da 10 a 5.000 pianeti, nella nostra galassia, che potrebbero essere abitati da civiltà evolute. Questo secondo due interpretazioni dell’equazione di Drake, espressa nel 1961 dal radioastronomo americano Frank Drake, presidente del SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) e tuttora accettata dalla comunità scientifica. Questa formula indica che il numero di civiltà possibili nella sola Via Lattea è pari al numero di anni di vita media di una civiltà. Ma è una mera ipotesi basata su dati solo molto parzialmente verificabili. Quel che è più assodato invece, è che il nostro Sole è solo una delle almeno 400.000 trilioni di stelle esistenti nell’universo e che la Via Lattea (la nostra galassia in cui sono presenti 400 miliardi di stelle del tipo della nostra) è una dei 200 miliardi di galassie esistenti (miliardo più, miliardo meno). Quindi, come sostiene anche Piergiorgio Odifreddi (logico matematico), per il calcolo delle probabilità è più facile ritenere che la vita si sia sviluppata anche altrove, piuttosto che conservare la retrograda convinzione che la Terra sia l’unica depositaria di questa qualità. D’altra parte perfino la Chiesa cattolica (storicamente un passo indietro rispetto alla scienza) oggi accetta la possibilità che altri esseri umani vivano altrove nell’universo. Non resta che da chiedersi, come fece Enrico Fermi nel 1950 davanti ad un piatto vuoto: Dove sono tutti quanti? Perché non si fanno vedere? Dal 1963 il radiotelescopio di Arecibo a Puerto Rico, ha iniziato ad ascoltare i segnali radio provenienti dagli spazi siderali. E nel 1974 da lì fu inviato nello spazio un messaggio radio terrestre in codice, formato da 1.679 bit ideati dallo stesso Drake docente alla Cornell University, all’“indirizzo” della Costellazione di Ercole (M13 in gergo scientifico) scoperta nel 1715 dall’astronomo inglese Edmond Halley. Se la “letterina” qui riportata in foto, venisse captata da radiotelescopi alieni, racconterebbe chi siamo.

Contiene infatti i numeri da 1 a 10, i numeri atomici di idrogeno, carbonio, azoto, ossigeno e fosforo, le basi del DNA con disegno dello stesso, il disegno di un uomo, la popolazione terrestre (4,2 miliardi nel ’74), una rappresentazione del sistema solare, la figura del radiotelescopio emittente e le dimensioni della sua antenna. Tali immagini risultano evidenti facendo un grande sforzo di lettura  tra le 73 righe composte da 23 numeri ciascuna (0 e 1) collocati in modo tale da disegnare i dati e le immagini voluti. Una prima occhiata ai numeri permette di scorgere solo la doppia elica del DNA e l’antenna del radiotelescopio. Ma perché qualcuno possa ricevere questo messaggio partito 34 anni fa ci vorrà del tempo: Ercole (a forma trapezoidale visibile a occhio nudo) e le sue centinaia di migliaia di stelle, dista 25.000 anni luce da noi! In ogni caso il radiotelescopio di Arecibo, che ha consentito importanti scoperte scientifiche (il reale periodo di rotazione di Mercurio, le stelle di neutroni, la prima pulsar e la prima millisecondpulsar che ruota su se stessa 642 volte al secondo, la prima immagine di un asteroide, i primi pianeti extrasolari), verrà chiuso nel 2011 se non si troveranno i fondi necessari a mantenerlo in vita. Quindi nessuno ascolterà l’eventuale risposta alla letterina dei terrestri: almeno non da lì.

]]> http://obskuristan.com/2008/10/30/where-are-they/ Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:52:03 +0000 nachtstrom http://obskuristan.com/2008/10/30/where-are-they/

Hintergrundmusik: Heute mal was von dem Label, welches ich zusammen mit meinem Bruder Gert betreibe: Herwig Holzmann mit der wunderbaren Stanislaw Lem – Würdigung Nekroevolution; das ganze Album (namens “LEM”) gibts als freien Download unter www.bruit.at. Infos zum Künstler bekommt ihr unter www.photophob.net.

Dr. Michio Kaku ist aussergewöhnlicher Wissenschaftler. Nicht nur, weil der Mitentwickler der Stringtheorie, der als Professor für theoretische Physik an der City University Of New York lehrt, mit über 60 Jahren ein Buch geschrieben hat, in welchem er sich als Science Fiction – Fan outet und sich ernsthaft mit den physikalischen Grundlagen utopischer Erfindungen wie Schutzschilden, Laserwaffen und Zeitmaschinen beschäftigt, sondern auch wegen seinem in vielen Interviews offen bekundetem Interesse am UFO-Phänomen und an der Möglichkeit der Existenz ausserirdischen Lebens (unter vielen von Kaku`s Berufskollegen gilt sowas ja noch immer als Häresie).

Unkonventioneller Physiker: Dr. Michio Kaku

Klare Worte findet Dr. Kaku allerdings zum SETI- Programm: In dem Buch “Die Physik des Unmöglichen” schreibt er: “Die Suche nach Hinweisen für intelligente Signale [...] ist bisher jedoch enttäuschend verlaufen. [...] Nach Jahrzehnten harter Arbeit hat das eklatante Ausbleiben jeglichen Fortschritts in der SETI-Forschung die Befürworter gezwungen, unbequeme Fragen zu stellen.“

SETI - Erfinder Frank Drake

Die unbequemste Frage zu SETI ist allerdings: “Wozu das Ganze?” Auch wenn sich SETI- Pionier Frank Drake vor einiger Zeit wieder einmal dahingehend geäussert hat, “er sei optimistisch, daß in den nächsten 20 Jahren ein entsprechendes Signal eintreffen werde“, mag man das kaum mehr glauben- die Resultate der Suche nach ausserirdischen Intelligenzen sind (ausser dem “Wow”- Signal des Astrophysikers Jerry R. Ehmann, welches allerdings nicht ernst genommen wurde) bis heute, fast 50 Jahre nach Beginn der ersten Experimente mit Radioteleskopen, gleich Null.

Da konnte sie noch lachen: Blossom Goodchild

Ist SETI bloß ein gigantisches Ablenkungsmanöver von Alien-Kontakten, die schon längst stattgefunden haben? Oder gibt es einfach keine Aliens, mit denen man einen Kontakt herstellen könnte? Die Szene der UFO- Kontaktgläubigen windet sich derzeit unter Schmerzen, nachdem das australische Medium Blossom Goodchild vor kurzem ein Desaster anrichtete: Sie hatte durch “Channeling” von der “Federation Of Light” erfahren, daß sich ab dem 14. Oktober 2008 für mehrere Tage der ganzen Welt ein UFO zeigen würde, “in such a way as to prove to us the existence of other life forms in the Universe“, und machte diese Botschaft öffentlich. Nachdem an diesem Datum keine Ausserirdischen (in welcher Form auch immer) zu sehen waren, brach ein Sturm der Entäuschung los- die Australierin musste ihr Blog wegen zahlreicher Mordrohungen, Aufforderungen zum Selbstmord und anderen Hassbotschaften schliessen.

Esoterische Bankrotterklärung: Blossom Goodchilds Entschuldigungsorgie

Keine guten Neuigkeiten an der Alien-Front also. Woran liegt es bloß, daß die Ausserirdischen keine Botschaften schicken, welche unsere Teleskope aufffangen können? Warum sind auf “Beweisfotos” von angeblichen UFOs immer nur verschwommene Lichtflecke zu sehen (andersum gefragt: warum stellen sich “detaillierte” UFO-Fotos in den meisten Fällen als Fälschungen heraus?) Warum bekamen berühmte “Contactees” wie Adamski, Angelucci oder Van Tassel Besuch von Venusiern und anderen “Botschaftern aus dem All“, bloß der Rest der Menschheit bekam sie nie zu sehen? Wenn man mal typisch esoterische Erklärungsversuche a lá ” Es ist noch nicht der richtige Zeitpunkt” oder “Die amerikanische Regierung ist schuld” weglässt, bleibt nur ein einziges Argument übrig: Unsere Konzepte von dem, was “ausserirdisch” ist, verhindern jegliche Möglichkeit der Kontaktaufnahme.

Botschaften via Laserstrahlen...

Bevor wir uns damit ausführlicher beschäftigen, hier noch ein paar technische Überlegungen: Möglich wäre es, daß wir schon längst Signale erhalten haben; die jedoch könnten solcherart beschaffen sein, daß wir sie nicht als Alien-Botschaften erkannt haben- die Signale könnten dermassen stark komprimiert sein, daß man sie nur als das übliche monotone Rauschen wahrnimmt. Ein weiteres Problem der SETI- Forscher ist ihre Fixierung auf Funksignale und deren Frequenzbänder: Dr. Kaku weist darauf hin, daß Ausserirdische ja genausogut Lasersignale benutzen könnten; bei dieser Technologie ist es im Vergleich zu Funk möglich, mehr Signale in eine Welle zu packen, da die Wellenlänge kürzer ist.

Der Roswell - Alien: Fake

Die wirklich essentielle Frage allerdings ist: würden wir einen Kontakt mit Ausserirdischen überhaupt als solchen erkennen? Sebastian Maliezefski hat zu diesem Thema 2006 in einem Essay geschrieben: “Wir verlangen eine bestimmte Art von Bewusstsein und Vernunft, um uns miteinander zu verständigen, nur in diesem Rahmen können wir agieren, denken und wissen. Was aber wenn irgendwo im Universum eine Lebensform existiert, deren Vernunft und Bewusstsein sich von der unseren vollständig unterscheidet? Eine Lebensform, die anders handelt, einen anderen Wissensstand hat, oder in völlig anderen Dimensionen denkt? Ob diese Lebensform aus unserer Sicht intelligent handelt ist rein subjektiv. Es wäre töricht, wenn man denkt, eine solche Vernunft ist auf der Suche nach uns oder einer anderen Zivilisation“.

Genius: Stanislaw Lem

Und selbst wenn wir einen Kontakt zu einer fremden Lebensform hergestellt hätten, würden wir sozusagen immer nur in einen “Spiegel blicken”. Der grosse polnische Denker Stanislaw Lem hat in seinen äusserst komplexen Romanen “Die Simme des Herrn” (1981) und “Fiasko” (1986) nicht nur dem naiven SETI-Konzept ein paar schallende Ohrfeigen verpasst, sondern auch die These des “kosmischen Vorbeiredens” postuliert: Letztlich würden wir im Kontakt mit einer ausserirdischen Rasse nur das verstehen können, was uns gleicht. In Lem`s “Fiasko” führt dieses vollkommene Unvermögen, sich in eine fremde Intelligenz einzufühlen, zu einem obsoleten (von der menschlichen Seite geführten) Krieg und zu der vollständigen Vernichtung eines Planeten samt seiner ausserirdischen Zivilisation.

Christian Fleck schreibt zu diesem Buch: “Die Erkenntnisse die wir von etwas gewinnen, was von sich aus keine Informationen hergibt, werden ausschließlich von unseren Fragen bestimmt. Wir erfahren immer nur das, was wir erfragen können – die Art der Frage bestimmt dabei die Antwort und läßt uns über die Hintergründe im Dunkeln“.

Keine guten Voraussetzungen also für den Kontakt mit einer ausserirdischen Zivilisation. Es scheint wohl seine Richtigkeit zu haben, daß ein solcher bisher nicht erfolgt ist- vielleicht sollte das auch in Zukunft so bleiben.

Más o menos eso es lo que decía Frank Drake, uno de los primeros investigadores de vida fuera de la Tierra, director de SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence). Hace algún tiempo creó una ecuación que calcula las civilizaciones extraterrestres que existen. Afirma que sólo en la Vía Láctea existen más de 10.000 civilizaciones, aunque, dice, no sabemos nada de ellas.

Su objetivo al lanzar señales radioeléctricas a otros países y su búsqueda de planetas con posibles civilizaciones es para encontrar soluciones a problemas como el hambre, catástrofes naturales o cómo solucionar la amenaza del crecimiento del son en unos millones de años.

¿Realidad o ficción? No lo sé, pero me gustaría. Ya que no somos capaces (o no queremos, o no nos dejan) de encontrar soluciones da igual si las traen extraterrestres, mientras vengan. Como dentro de 100 años ninguno de nosotros va a estar vivo, no podremos criticarle si es mentira.

For several years all of my computers have been running the SETI@home project. This means that any spare CPU power is used to try and find aliens.

No, I’m not joking.

The program downloads data collected by a massive radio telescope in Puerto Rico, and analyses it to try and find a signal from the stars. Since the project began in 1999 there have been a few candidates, but no joy.

So where the hell are all the little green men, and why aren’t they talking?

One of the pioneers of the search for extra terrestrial intelligence (SETI) is Frank Drake. Among other things he is famous for creating what is now known as the Drake Equation. This equation predicts the number of our galactic neighbours capable of communicating with us at any given time.

The equation is stated on wikipedia as:

N = R x f_p x n_e x f_l x f_i x f_c x L

where:

N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which we might expect to be able to communicate at any given time

and

R is the rate of star formation in our galaxy

f_p is the fraction of those stars that have planets

n_e is average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

f_l is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life

f_i is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life

f_c is the fraction of the above that are willing and able to communicate

L is the expected lifetime of such a civilization

If that all sounds like a bunch of gobble-de-gook then let me explain it using a different example.

N = R x f_p x n_e x f_l x f_i x f_c x L

where:

N is the number of good looking people who would actually go home with you on a saturday night

and

R is the number of towns in your area

f_p is the fraction of those towns that have pubs

n_e is average number of pubs that actually have customers

f_l is the fraction of the above that are of your sexual preference.

f_i is the fraction of the above that are good looking

f_c is the fraction of the above that are drunk enough to actually go home with you

L is the expected time they would spend in the pub before being taken to emergency for alchohol poisoning

Put simply the Drake Equation gives us the likely number of our galactic neighbours we could “pick up”. As it turns out, that number is very high, or very low, depending on what values you plug in to the equation. This is where it gets tricky – those values vary greatly depending on who you ask.

Perhaps the most disputed parameter is L – the average lifetime of your average galactic civilisation. Apart from natural disasters and thermonuclear annihilation, other factors may influence this value. Some have argued that L should be limited to the amount of time a civilisation broadcasts or receives radio frequencies, after all, that is how we are looking for them with projects such as SETI@home. Our own civilisation has been listening to extra-solar radio waves since Grote Reber’s work in 1938.

This makes things interesting, because every second that we are using radio waves increases the value of L. With this in mind I created a Drake Equation Clock of sorts – calculating L as the amount of time that has elapsed since 1938, and using very pessimistic values for the other parameters:

<!–

var timerID = 0;
var strDivCurrentN = “Current estimate of N: “;
var strDivYearsToN1 = “Years until N reaches one: “;

Start();

function Start()
{
document.getElementById(“YearsToN1″).innerHTML = strDivYearsToN1 + Math.round(Estimate_NumYearsTillNOfOne());
timerID = setTimeout(‘UpdateEstimate()’, 1);
}

function Stop()
{
if(timerID)
{
clearTimeout(timerID);
timerID = 0;
}
}

function UpdateEstimate()
{
document.getElementById(“CurrentN”).innerHTML = strDivCurrentN + NumberToStringNoExponent(Estimate_N());
timerID = setTimeout(‘UpdateEstimate()’, 1000);
}

//–>

As you can see, we have a very long way to go (unless you happen to be reading this in the year 1282049207 AD). In contrast, the more optimistic values Frank Drake suggests give us a number of more than ten thousand. This uncertainty does not devalue the equation’s worth, on the contrary – finding out the correct values of those parameters is more important than ever.

Ultimately the Drake equation is so simple, logical and obvious that it is hard to refute it. The only thing you can question are the numbers you plug into it – and people will be arguing about them until ET really gives us an interstellar booty call.