Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”.

Topic is ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World”.

Here, we would go through the Brief of like what are Economic Events & Indicators and important sources of data provider for calculating & determining economic indicators.

 

ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World”

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Economic Events & Indicators are statistics that precede an economic event.

The goal is to track the economy & derive a forecast for future performance.

Economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and to move prices of commodities futures as well as the financial markets including Forex.

Tools of Construction: This would include separate sections of statistical methods including

- Calculating indices and re-basing them,

- Differences between arithmetic and geometric averages,

- Standard deviations,

- Regression analysis,

- Correlation and causation,

- Margins of error in statistics calculations and

- What this means for interpretation, subsequent revisions and why they happen.

Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries.

Examples : unemployment rate,  housing starts,  Consumer Price Index (a measure for inflation),  Consumer Leverage Ratio,  industrial production,  bankruptcies,  Gross Domestic Product,  broadband internet penetration,  retail sales,  stock market prices,  money supply changes etc;

The important sources of data provider for calculating & determining economic indicators are like:

- Bureau of Labor Statistics,

- Census of Construction Industries,

- Bureau of Economic Analysis &

- Reserve Bank.

The value of the indicator data is considered important if it presents new information, or is instrumental to drawing conclusions which couldn’t be drawn under other reports or data.

Each indicator is marked with “H”-”M”-”L” (High-Medium-Low), according to its level of importance, as commonly considered.

Next Blog we would try to know about the classified categories of Economic indicators in details and what is Time Era.

Stay Tuned for more and more on this

However For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

I recommend to sell the nifty future at 5100, target of 5080-85.

Stock Market Futures: 1st December 2009 (5:26am Tuesday GMT)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($DJI) Futures – Up: 10,344.84 +34.92 (0.34%) (Click here for live chart)

S&P 500 INDEX (INX) Futures – Up: 1,095.63 +4.14 (0.38%) (Click here for live chart)

NIKKEI 225 (N225) Futures – Up: 9,490.89 +150.43 (1.61%) (Click here for live charts)

NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) Futures – Up: 2,144.60 +6.16 (0.29%) (Click here for live charts)

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Team

Penny Stock Alerts

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Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

Wheat Rises as Dollar Drop Boosts Outlook for U.S. Export Sales

Wheat Rises as Dollar Drop Boosts Outlook for U.S. Export Sales:

Wheat rose to a one-week high on speculation that prospects for U.S. exports gained because the dollar declined this month and as demand increased from investors seeking a hedge against inflation.

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Wheat prices also got a boost from concern that some U.S. growers were unable to plant winter crops because unusually heavy rainfall delayed the soybean harvest and hindered access to the fields.

U.S. shipments have lagged behind the year-earlier pace because of rising world stockpiles and because competing suppliers offered grain at lower prices.

Wheat also gained as speculative investors including index- and hedge-fund managers bought commodity futures that they deem to be undervalued, including wheat.

In Other major Commodity Update, there is information about Soybean Prices rising on surging Chinese demand for U.S. Supplies.

Soybean Prices Rise on Surging Chinese Demand for U.S. Supplies:

Soybean prices rose to a five-month high on surging demand for animal feed and cooking oil made from oilseeds shipped by the U.S., the world’s biggest producer and exporter.

From Sept. 1 to Nov. 19, U.S. export sales of soybeans rose 58 percent to 27.1 million metric tons (995.4 million bushels) from a year earlier, and China accounted for 62 percent of the total, government data show.

A drought this year in Brazil and Argentina, the largest shippers of feed made from the oilseed, boosted consumption of U.S. supplies.

U.S. sales of soybean meal from Oct. 1 to Nov. 19 surged 72 percent to 4.7 million tons from a year earlier, Department of Agriculture figures show.

Shipments of soybean oil have tripled.

Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

FKLI opened at 1258 and subsequently touched our que to go LONG at 1256.  Place stop loss 5 points away at 1251 and take profit 5-7 points away at 1261 to 1263.

Update at 10.00 am - FKLI touched our profit taking price of 1261 at 9.36 am, so 5 points profit for today.

Performance so far for November 2009 = -13.5 points/contract
Win = 7 times, Lose = 9 times LWWLDLLLWLLWWLLW

How do I interpret this?

Disclaimer

Market Commentary November 30, 2009

Overall, most of the markets produced a downward trend today, especially in the U.S Trading session. The downward pressure could be due to the realization that Dubai has a very high probability of default on their loans due over the next three years.  This proved to be one of the catalysts for Friday’s down day, and could be continuing over the holiday weekend (Identify Market Sentiment For Day Trading Futures). Although the markets showed added volatility today, we were still able to take some great trades this morning. We took a total of 3 trades and went 2 for 3 for a total profit of $310!

Our first trade of the morning came on the Mini-Russell (Symbol TF). There was little volume in the Mini-Russell market prior to the opening of the U.S Equities market at 9:35am EST. This all changed as soon as the U.S markets opened, because it brought with it sufficient volume into the market. As more market participants joined in the price action, it was clear that the majority of them were sellers, who began pushing price down sharply; quickly finding a bottom at 570.4. After making a clear double bottom in price, the pattern told us that the probability of a reversal was great (Price Patterns Technical Analysis Futures Video). We soon began looking for a possible entry price, and found one at 9:35am EST. We used our 2-step pattern to enter the market long at a basis of 571.6 and once our order had been executed, buyers continued to push price up, allowing us to lock in profits at +4 ticks (2 contracts), +8 ticks and +7 ticks for a total of +23 ticks ($230).

The second trade of the day came almost two hours later, but this time on the Euro futures (Symbol 6E). The Euro’s price action was quite choppy this morning, but still held a rather strong downtrend (Euro Currency Futures Day Trading Video). As the market continued to sell off, we saw a quick spike in price action after the U.S released its Chicago PMI, but the rally didn’t last long. As soon as the added volatility had subsided, price action was back in its downtrend. With the short and long term trend today being down, we continued to be patient and wait for a chance to short the Euro market.  Our opportunity came to us at 11:03am EST, when we were able to take a Breaker pattern short, with an entry price of 1.4995. As soon as we entered the market though, price action was not showing us any real follow through to the downside; so we decided it was best to take a scratch on this trade, and closed out at our entry price ($0). We found this to be the best solution because rather than risk our profits already made, we knew there would be more trading opportunities today, and would rather end our day with profits than losses.

Our third and final trade of the morning came on the Crude Oil market (Symbol CL). Prior to the U.S Equities market opening at 9:30am EST, sellers looked to be controlling the Crude Oil market. As soon as more volume entered the market though, Crude Oil began rallying once again. The buyers in the market continued the trend all the way back to the opening of the day; but this rally didn’t last long and soon began to pull back to the short side ( Crude Oil Futures Day Trading Video). With the trend later in the morning to the downside, we looked to enter in the direction of that trend. At 11:31am EST we entered the market off a Breaker short pattern, with a basis of 76.07 we were able to take some quick profits from the market, and closed our trade out with +4 ticks (2 contracts) for a total profit of +8 ticks ($80).

Review Our Trades From Yesterday!

See All Of Our Previous Trades

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Stock Market Futures: 30th November 2009 (5:48am Monday GMT)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($DJI) Futures – Down: 10,309.92 -154.48 (-1.48%) (Click here for live chart)

S&P 500 INDEX (INX) Futures – Down: 1,091.49 -19.14 (-1.72%) (Click here for live chart)

NIKKEI 225 (N225) Futures – Up: 9,289.94 +208.42 (2.30%) (Click here for live charts)

NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) Futures – Down: 2,138.44 -37.61 (-1.73%) (Click here for live charts)

Keep Reading

Team

Penny Stock Alerts

I hope you liked this post. If you did, do subscribe to our blog through email or RSS Feeds.

As you know, the YM hit our 10,360 target last
week.  This was a big decision area as it was
the 50% retrace off the March lows.  Anything
can happen at this point.  It looked as if a rally
into the end of the year  was inevitable.

Then, news that Dubai would  have to delay its debt
payments rocked the markets.  The ES and YM sold off
back down to their daily 13s support.

Remember last week I said that we would likely be in some
consolidation with a potential spike up or down
that would settle back in the consolidation range.
Well, this is exactly what we have now.  The question
is, which way will they go from here?

Watch to see what market structures set up now in
the ES and YM.  Chances are a breakout of the consolidation
will happen off of one of  these market structure triggers.

On another note, the new ATM Trading System is nearing
completion.  You can check out the demonstration video here:

http://www.scalpersgold.com/products/atm/

Also, if you are struggling with cutting your losses short and
letting your profits run then check out the Scalper’s Gold
Trading System here:

http://www.scalpersgold.com/products/scalpersgold/

To Your Trading Success.

JM

www.scalpersgold.com

FKLI opened at 1266, so that means our que to go LONG at 1266 has been triggered.  Place stop loss 5 points away at 1261 and take profit 5-7 points away at 1271 to 1273.

Update at 5.15 pm – FKLI touched our stop loss point at 1261, so 5 points loss for today.

Performance so far for November 2009 = -23.5 points/contract
Win = 6 times, Lose = 10 times LWWLDLLLWLLWWLLL

How do I interpret this?

Disclaimer

CL -F+G over ten years if traded from Nov 29 to Dec 10
averages: 0.371 $371.00 $-61.00 $443.00
number of trades: 10
percent up: 90.0

Przyjrzyjmy się najpierw wykresowi:

kontrakty terminowe, FW20Z09

Widzimy, ze linia trendu w połączeniu z 78,6% zniesieniem Fibonacciego zadziałały wyśmienicie a dodatkowo utworzyła nam się pozytywna (pro-wzrostowa) formacja świecowa.

Na najbliższej sesji będę przymierzał się do otwarcia pozycji długiej licząc na dojście do poziomu 2350 gdzie mamy w pobliżu 50% zniesienie Fibonacciego. Po pokonaniu jego okolic mamy szansę na dojście 2375, a po przebiciu się przez te okolice będzie szansa na dojście do 2410.

Jeśli jednak przyszły tydzień będzie miał też spadkowe sesje to za słabość uznałbym przełamanie strefy 2300-2295 i rozważyłbym wzięcie pozycji krótkiej.

Wsparcia: 2300-2295, 2255, 2200.
Opory: 2350-2355, 2375-2380, 2410

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

At 10:15 (AEDT), the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 19.5 points, or 0.40 per cent, at 4826.7 while the broader All Ordinaries had slipped 20.5 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 4,832.3 points.

At 10:17 BHP Billiton shares were down 41 cents, or 1.03 per cent, at $39.50, while rival Rio Tinto was down 85 cents, or 1.27 per cent, at $65.95.

BHP Billiton says first quarter iron ore output rose to a record but warned it did not expect to resume full production of copper and uranium at its Olympic Dam project in South Australia until the third quarter of 2009/10, following damage to a haulage system.

Local banks were mainly lower.

NAB was down 13 cents at $31.17, Westpac down two cents at $26.46, and Commonwealth Bank down 47 cents to $54.43.

Macquarie Group was 83 cents, or 1.52 per cent, lower at $53.72.

But ANZ Banking Group went against the trend, gaining eight cents to $23.87.

Wall Street closed lower overnight on disappointing housing data, which came out weaker than expected.

The selloff on US equity markets was despite some encouraging corporate earnings results.

US housing starts rose by 0.5 per cent to 590,000 in September, lower than market expectations of a 610,000 increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 50.71 points, or 0.50 per cent, at 10,041.48.

On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the December share price index contract was 16 points lower at 4829, on a volume of 4,660 contracts.

Source: Australian share market opens lower | Business Breaking News | News.com.au

Hello Readers,

I hope you liked our updates so far in the day and today we have BRYN and CLF on our watch list. Here is the Pre-Market video for today:

We will first start off with Bryn Res Inc (BRYN)

BRYN had a news release yesterday “ that today initiated coverage on Bryn Resources Inc. (Pink Sheets:BRYN). Emerging Stock Report is currently offering a complimentary trial subscription to the investment community”. (Source : globenewswire)

Now let’s look at how the stock performed yesterday:

Source: Google Finance

Let us know look at: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (CLF)

CLF had a news release yesterday “that it has obtained approval from the TSX Venture Exchange for its previously-announced private placement to Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!clf/quotes/nls/clf (CLF 45.28, +1.83, +4.21%) /quotes/comstock/24s!e:clf (FR:CLF 28.41, -0.73, -2.51%) . Freewest will issue 6,908,440 common shares to Cliffs at a price of $0.60 per share, for proceeds to Freewest of $4,145,064.”. (Source : bigcharts)

Now let’s look at how the stock performed yesterday:

Source: Google Finance

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Team
Penny Stock Alerts

I hope you liked this post. If you did, do subscribe to our blog through email or RSS Feeds.

Stock Market Futures: 27th November 2009 (11:15am Friday GMT)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($DJI) Futures – Up: 10,464.40 +30.69 0.29% (Click here for live chart)

S&P 500 INDEX (INX) Futures – Up: 1,110.63 +4.98 (0.45%) (Click here for live chart)

NIKKEI 225 (.N225) Futures -Down: 9,081.52 -301.72 (-3.22%) (Click here for live charts)

NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC) Futures- Up: 2,176.05 +6.87 (0.32%)(Click here for live charts)

Keep Reading

Team

Penny Stock Alerts

I hope you liked this post. If you did, do subscribe to our blog through email or RSS Feeds.

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, “Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 2

In previous Blog, we had touched upon the aspect like analysis part of seasonal patterns in predicting the future prices of the commodity.

Seasonal Index - “Time is Money” Final Part

In this Blog, we would read about that how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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Annual Average Method

The annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern as well as predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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This seasonal price index is derived by calculating the annual average price, and then by expressing the price for each month during the year as a percent of the annual average.

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Here, the data which is used to derive the seasonal price patterns are the monthly prices taken between the year April’2004 & November’2009.

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The monthly indexes over the years are averaged to derive a price index that represents those years.

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An example of the technique is presented in Table 1.

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The seasonal price index table suggests that the index increases from the month of June, the time the buyers enter the market with full potential & reaches the highest till the end of the year.

In The Year 2009

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The prices movement of this year almost followed the seasonal pattern, except few months.

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The supply constraints of lower output, as farmers opted for cotton, worked as a high base effect for the futures with a flat production figure of 8.5 lakh tonnes in 2008-09.

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The recovery in prices was noticed owing to the unforeseen failure of monsoons & comfortable stocks of 25-30 lakh bags from last year for which guar prices traded higher all through-out the year.

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This commodity created a history as it made a life time high, since the date of launch at national bourse, on reports that the output is estimated at 30-35 lakh quintals, down 62% due to factors like scanty rains in the major growing areas.

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Stronger Rupee along-with volatile Crude oil prices brought some corrections in export earnings from Guargum markets in Europe/US.

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However, upcoming demand for by-products such as churi & korma from international markets kept the millers interested in processing guar.

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In a nutshell, if investors want to spin their money safely & stabilize their net returns, using seasonal Index can prove to be a fair advantage.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and updates, please click here

Just a year after the global downturn  derailed  Dubai’s explosive growth, the  city is now  so  swamped  in  debt that  it’s  asking  for a  six-month  reprieve  on  paying  its bills.

Dubai Debt Fears Grip World Markets

This has cast a shadow on a world only just emerging from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s,  knocking markets  from Sydney to Sao Paulo and raising questions about Dubai’s reputation  as a magnet for international investment.

For India, which has tens of thousands of its citizens living  and working in the emirate,  the concerns are more direct:  thousands of its expats staring at job losses and  the economy, sharply reduced trade.

India, which gets nearly a quarter of the remittances from the United Arab Emirates and  has lakhs of laborers working in the region, could be worse off than most other nations  if the crisis escalates into a full-blown one  like the Russian or Argentinean crises of the past.

India’s exports to the UAE stood at $23.92 billion in FY09.

It is very likely that we may see one more leg of job losses in Dubai.

The only consolation for the region is that Abu Dhabi is booming.

Indian shares and the rupee fell in sync with other global markets where investors are fleeing for safety after Dubai debt trap concerns.

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex on Friday tumbled over 451.63 points to 16,403.30 points in the first ten minutes of trading on hectic selling by funds in line with weak global cues and concerns over Dubai’s debt.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty dropped by 140.50 points to 4865.05 points.

Brokers said the selling focus was more on banking and realty stocks after Dubai’s debt problems revived concerns about the global financial system and rattled markets across Europe and Asia.

Indian rupee fell 24 paisa to 46.55 against the dollar.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.4%.

Most European indices were about 2% lower after Asia tumbled.

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.6%, its biggest drop since August, and Brazil’s Bovespa Index slipped 1.1%. U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Credit-default swaps tied to debt sold by Dubai rose as much as 131 basis points to 571.

“Dubai isn’t doing risk appetite any favours at all and the markets remain in a vulnerable state of mind,” said Market analysts.

“We’re still in an environment where we’re vulnerable to financial shocks of any sort and this is one of those.”

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

Uncertainty over stocks leads to price volatility in turmeric futures:

In an unusual situation this week, far-term turmeric contracts were trading much below near-term ones, offering a big arbitrage opportunity for hedgers and speculators, on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).

The price difference was 39 per cent.

Last year’s carryover stock is estimated to have declined steeply, at around 150,000 bags (a bag is 70 kg) as of today, as compared to around 700,000 bags around the same time last year.

Arrivals at the Erode market were 2,000 bags and sold at Rs 10,900-11,000 a quintal.

In Duggirala, prices were placed at Rs 9,800-10,500 a quintal and in Warangal at Rs 9,900-10,500 a quintal.

Turmeric exports climbed seven per cent to 4,000 tonnes in October 2009 from the same period last year.

Weak turmeric futures put downward pressure on spot markets, to send the product down by Rs 800 a quintal.

In Other major Commodities Updates also read Soybeans and Wheat Drop as Dubai Default Risk Dents Confidence of the Investors.

Soybeans, Corns and Wheat Drop as Dubai Default Risk Dents Confidence:

Soybeans, corn and wheat slumped after Dubai’s bid to reschedule debt sent equities tumbling and eroded investor confidence in commodities.

Soybeans for January delivery dropped as much as 2.7 percent to $10.2625 a bushel, the lowest level since Nov. 19, in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and were at $10.385 at of 10:50 a.m. Tokyo time.

The contract has lost 0.7 percent this week, the first such drop in three weeks.

Wheat for March delivery in Chicago lost as much as 2.4 percent to $5.5775 a bushel before trading at $5.595.

The grain dropped 3.7 percent this week, falling for the first time in four weeks.

Production may be around 21 million metric tons, down 2 percent from last harvest and lower than the 23 million tons forecast in October,2009.

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