Earlier this week, I posted my list of the top pitchers in the NL and explained my methods.  Just as a recap, here’s what I am trying to do:

1) I start with the number of runs allowed by each pitcher, and the number of innings that guy pitched.

2) I modify the number of runs allowed to account for any bias based on the pitcher’s home park.

3) I modify the number of runs allowed based on my defensive rating system for teams and players because if you have Seattle’s team defense behind you, you are less likely to allow a run than if you had the Royals defense behind you.  We’ll get into this in more detail when we hand out defensive awards next week.

Then, I compare what an average pitcher would have done with what that pitcher did – and come up with a “runs saved” or “extra runs allowed” ranking.  Nobody saved his team more runs than did Zack Greinke last year.  Zack Greinke had a really low ERA over more than 220 innings despite pitching in a park that helps hitters a little bit and having a rather poor defense behind him.  As such, his season is the best season I have tracked since I started doing this in 2005.

Top Pitchers (by Runs Saved)

65.61 – Zack Greinke (KC)
47.11 – Roy Halliday (TOR)
33.22 – Jon Lester (BOS)
32.14 – Felix Hernandez (SEA)
27.55 – Andrew Bailey (OAK)
26.51 – Cliff Lee (CLE)
25.74 – C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
25.73 – Justin Verlander (DET)
22.21 – Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
21.30 – Mariano Rivera (NYY)
21.13 – Joe Nathan (MIN)
20.80 – Jered Weaver (LAA)
20.57 – Kevin Millwood (TEX)
20.09 – Josh Beckett (BOS)

21.61 – Jarrod Washburn (SEA) – but -13.29 in DET

In fact, it’s not even close – Greinke had as good a season as we’ve seen by a pitcher in a long, long time.  Imagine if he had done this for 40 starts instead of 33, with a team like Seattle.  He MIGHT have had an ERA around 1.70 and a won-loss record of something like 27 – 4.  From this, you can see that Halliday instead of Cliff Lee will be a slight step up for Philadelphia and would have been a more serious contender for the Cy Young Award (in my book) had not Greinke been more dominating.

Another thing of interest – four relievers were good enough to sneak onto the list of pitcher saving his team more than 20 runs, led by Andrew Bailey.  Let’s use that to show the list of the top relievers in the AL last year.

Top Relievers

27.55 – Andrew Bailey (OAK)
22.21 – Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
21.30 – Mariano Rivera (NYY)
21.13 – Joe Nathan (MIN)
18.41 – Matt Guerrier (MIN)
18.09 – Darren O’Day (TEX)
17.04 – Matt Thornton (CHW)
17.04 – Michael Wuertz (OAK)
16.79 – Darren Oliver (LAA)
16.41 – Jose Mijares (MIN)
16.16 – Brandon Lyon (DET)
15.87 – Joakim Soria (KC)

A couple of things – usually the top guys are middle relievers or set up men with great ERAs in 70 innings.  There are a couple here – Thorton, Wuertz, and Oliver for example.  Still – the top four guys were KILLER closers in 2009.

Worst Pitchers

-37.04 – Andy Sonnestine (TB)
-33.26 – Fausto Carmona (CLE)
-24.16 – Chien-Ming Wang (NYY)
-22.81 – Jason Berken (BAL)
-21.45 – Derek Holland (TEX)
-20.71 – Luke Hochevar (KC)
-21.02 – Chris Jakubauskas (SEA)
-20.38 – Jose Contreras (CHW)
-19.59 – Armando Galarraga (DET)
-19.17 – Rich Hill (BAL)
-18.36 – Garrett Olson (SEA)

-23.47 – Scott Kazmir (TB) – but positive 11.34 in LAA

If you had Andy Sonnestine on your fantasy team last year, you didn’t read my Tampa Rays Team Profile that pointed out that many of the Rays pitchers weren’t as good as you thought because the team defense in 2008 was amazingly good.  In 2009, Bartlett was hurt, and Upton struggled, and Aki Iwamura went down, and Carlos Pena looked a little older (and then left to an injury).  Sonnestine may throw strikes, but they sure do get hit a lot.

Hopefully, Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang can figure things out.  Two years ago, these guys won nearly 40 games combined – and now they are #2 and #3 on the wrong list.

And, if you are scrolling down to the NL List, note that the list contained a bunch of Brewer and Padre pitchers.  In the AL, only Seattle doubled up by having two guys get pounded around – bad pitching was more evenly distributed…

Olson was tattoed by the Detroit offense on Tuesday.

A day after getting blasted for seven runs in just 1 1/3 innings pitched, lefty Garrett Olson is likely on his way out of Seattle’s starting rotation. Olson’s impending departure creates yet another hole in the Mariners’ already-thin starting five, which is little more than a trio these days.

Beyond Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and Jarrod Washburn, the M’s currently have no other starting pitchers on the active roster (assuming Olson’s starting days are behind us).

Prior to the All-Star break, the team demoted starters Brandon Morrow and Jason Vargas to Triple-A so they could continue throwing through the mini-vacation. While it appears likely that Vargas may return to the bigs in a short period of time, Morrow may be looking at more of an extended stay in Tacoma.

That limits the number of options available to fill the two vacant starting spots.

We’d like to see the team go old school and fill out a four-man staff the rest of the year (so as to maximize the effectiveness of the Big Three), but we know that probably won’t happen. So here’s a breakdown of the candidates for spots four and five in the soon-to-be-revamped quintet:

Jason Vargas

Perhaps the most likely pitcher to fill either of the open spots, Vargas had been pitching brilliantly for Seattle before setbacks in four of his past five starts.

In his first six starts with the M’s, Vargas maintained an ERA of 2.35. Over his next five outings, his ERA was an atrocious 6.04.

That implosion triggered his demotion to Tacoma, but without fail Vargas should be back within the next two weeks.

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Rowland-Smith started the year in the M’s rotation before an injury put him on the shelf for nearly all of April and most of May.

Since then, he has been a starter in Triple-A where he has compiled a 5-3 record with a 4.31 ERA.

He hasn’t been 100% by any means, but he’s consistently improved with each passing outing. Over his past three starts, Rowland-Smith has gone seven-plus innings each time and given up a total of just four runs.

Brandon Morrow

The Morrow roller coaster ride continues to loop its way around the track as the right-hander has been up, down, in the pen, in the rotation, and everywhere but out in left field, it seems.

In his one start since being demoted to Triple-A, the flame-throwing youngster did little to help his cause for a promotion. In 4 2/3 IP, he gave up six hits, five earned runs, walked three, and struck out only four while compiling an ERA of 9.64.

Expect Morrow to remain in the minors until he can turn things around.

Chris Jakubauskas

The designated long man in the Mariners’ pen, Jakubauskas has started eight games this year for the team.

He currently has a record of 5-6 with a 5.25 ERA, but the right-handed rookie has been getting better as of late.

In his past three outings, Jak has tossed a combined 7 2/3 IP while giving up only one earned run. His chances of earning a start or two increase with the abundance of southpaws already laying claim to much of the rotation.

Gutierrez Crashes the Wall

Olson Shelled in 1st, Yanked in 2nd

Hannahan’s Two Homers in Vain

There is nothing new yet this morning on the prognosis of Franklin Gutierrez, but suffice it to say, even with all of the other injuries this team has sustained, this may be the final straw. Hitting the out of town digital scoreboard in centerfield on a full run, it’s obvious that the backlighting of the device deceived his perception of depth leading to a frightening blow.

Listed day to day with contusions to the left knee and elbow, there is promise that Gutierrez will return, but we’ll certainly find out what kind of cloth he’s cut from the next time he screams toward the fence. The Mariner’s can ill afford a drop in his production without falling further behind the Angels.

Olson’s performance brings another lesson to light, in giving up four first inning runs, it’s becoming evident that he’s better suited to middle relief than starting. On paper, his starts appear routine. But each one of them has been a white knuckle ride. With three quality starters in Tacoma; Morrow, Vargas, and Rowland-Smith, how long will it be before we see another roster move? Take away the first inning meltdown, and the Mariner’s win this game with an oddly persistent offense.

I’m enjoying the baseball season this year.  The Mariners are fun to watch.  They are a team that is better as a whole than the sum of its parts.  This year’s M’s are a team that I can appreciate for their play on the field and for results that have them within spitting distance of 1^st place.

They have far exceeded anything we expected.  Behind it is a GM – Jack Zduriencik (a.k.a. Dr. Z, a.k.a.  JZ) – that has established a strategy and has executed transactions that align with the set strategy.

Unfortunately, prior to JZ, Seattle suffered 5 years under a GM that had no set strategy; who made transactions that seemed as random as this years Dow Jones Average.

So as we head into the 2^nd half of the season, I provide this year’s what-if . . . Seattle never had to suffer the ridiculous and much too painful to be considered comical Bavasi regime.

Bavasi never existed Line-up (players in bold are players traded by Bavasi):
RF Ichiro Suzuki . . . . . . .362   6hr   24 rbi
SS Asdrubal Cabrera .300  2hr  34 rbi & filthy fielding (see double play v M’s)
LF Adam Jones . . . . . .303  12hr  47 rbi
1B Russell Branyan . . . . . .280  22hr  49 rbi
CF Franklin Gutierrez . . . .295  10hr   37 rbi
DH Shin-Soo Choo . . . .292  13hr   54 rbi
3B Carlos Guillen . . . . .286  10hr   54 rbi (last year’s stats, injured this year)
C Rob Johnson . . . . . . . . . .203    1hr    19 rbi
2B Jose Lopez . . . . . . . . . . .256  12hr    51 rbi
Kangaroo Court Judge, Clubhouse Jester, Hall of Famer In-waiting
Ken Griffey Jr. . . . . . . . . . . .219   10hr   26 rbi (he may not have a position on this team, but we’ll keep him . . . he tickles Ichiro for chrissakes).

Bavasi never existed Pitching Staff:
Tim Lincecum . . . 10 – 2   2.33 era
(Note: Bavasi was an idiot.  Zduriencik is not.  In my mind, Dr. Z would have taken local boy Lincecum, and I’m sticking with that assumption for this theoretical reality I have created)
Felix Hernandez . . . 9 – 3   2.53 era
Jason Vargas . . . . . . 3 – 3   3.82 era
Chris Tillman . . . 7 – 5   2.50 era (Triple-A stats)
Garrett Olson . . . . . . 3 – 2   4.42 era

Bavasi never existed Bullpen:
David Aardsma . . . . . 2 – 3   1.96 era 20 sv 6 hld
Rafael Soriano . . . . 1 – 1   1.48 era 12 sv 6 hld
George Sherrill . . . . 0 – 1   2.41 era 20 sv
Mark Lowe . . . . . . . . . . 1 – 4   3.24 era 1 sv 13 hld
Matt Thornton . . . . . 4 – 2   2.48 era 13 hld
Dude #1 to do mop-up/ long relief
Dude #2 to do mop-up/ long relief
(Note: I don’t blame Bavasi for getting rid of Ryan Franklin. He was suspended for taking steroids and was not producing.  Most GM’s would’ve sent him packing).

I know it’s unfair to speculate on what the specific roster would be today.  JZ would undoubtedly have made different moves if he inherited a more robust roster, thus some of this year’s additions would most likely not be on the team.  Nonetheless, the roster listed above, with the names and stats of players producing for other teams around the League, is a primary indicator of just how bad Bavasi actually was.  He completely depleted the M’s farm system and received nothing in return.

Of the players on the current roster, Bavasi was responsible for acquiring only five of them: Adrian Beltre, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Sean White.  That’s five players in five years.

In return, Bavasi filled rosters throughout the Major Leagues with good, if not outstanding, players.  There are 16 players on current MLB rosters that were in the M’s system before Bavasi joined the franchise that he generously gifted away.  Of the 16 players only Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and Chris Tillman were exchanged for a player on the M’s current roster.  All 3 were used to get Erik Bedard.  I would much prefer to have the combined production of the three former M’s than the output from a pitcher who can’t get out of the 6^th inning and spends half his time on the DL.

Additionally, only Chris Tillman was below Triple-A at the time of trade.  So the excuse that teams always trade low-level prospects (see David Ortiz) does not apply.

So, let’s celebrate a great 1^st half of a season and a new direction for a team in need of one.  Let’s celebrate the genius of Zduriencik.  And, most importantly as the trade deadline approaches, let’s celebrate that Bill Bavasi is far, far away from Seattle and from doing any further damage to the future success of our beloved Mariners.

Wake really needed this one.  He knew it, the team new it, we knew it.  But he ended up with a no-decision.  It was good and bad.  When he pitched well, he pitched really well.  The knuckleball was dancing and everything.  But when he pitched badly, he really pitched badly.  But that’s how it works.  Sometimes it moves, sometimes it doesn’t, and it fluctuates even within a game.  So you never know, really.  Compared to some of the outings he’s had in the past, this was excellent, but compared to the way he’s been pitching lately, you scratch your head and wonder where this came from.  He pitched eight innings but gave up five runs on ten hits.  He struck out three and didn’t walk anybody, but three of the runs he gave up were due entirely to the long ball.  So good and bad as always with Wake.

In theory, this complicates his All-Star fate.  If he won last night, it would’ve been a lock.  He would’ve already been packing his bags.  In practice, it might not be as bad.  For one thing, he didn’t actually lose.  We were tied, 5-5, through ten.  After Wakefield left, Delcarmen and Paps held the fort.  Then Ramon Ramirez allowed two runs in the top of the eleventh, and we only scored one in the bottom.  So the final was 7-6.  Ramirez took the loss, as he should.  And it’s not like the Mariners lit Wakefield up.  There was no slugfest, really.  So it wasn’t great but it could’ve been a whole lot worse.

And the rest of the team knew exactly how important this was and put up a fight until the bitter end.  Even if Felix Hernandez’s changeup alone is ninety miles per hour, which is just obscsene.  For some reason, it looked like every other ball was heading for the Fisk pole.  Drew went two for six with a solo homer in the seventh.  First pitch he saw in that at-bat and he went for it.  Boy, did he go for it.  A ninety-six mile-per-hour fastball and it ended up over center field.  Drew has made constructive contact on the first pitch twenty-seven times this year, and for those he’s batting .308 with three home runs.  Pedroia hit and scored.  Ortiz walked and scored.  Bay hit, walked, scored, and plated one for an RBI.  And he’s a United States citizen.  Congratulations! Great timing, too, with the Fourth of July.  Kotsay went two for five with a run, and he’s turning out to be quite the player.  The key is his versatility; he plays outfield, he plays first base, and he’s really maximizing his playing time and getting more hits.  He improves every time he’s out there.  Ellsbury hit and stole, as usual.  Green went two for two, plated two, and walked once.  And George Kottaras, who lately proves every time he plays that Theo Epstein was absolutely right to tap him for the job, went two for five.  He hit a solo home run in the eleventh inning.  He was responsible for that late-game run.  And you have to give him a lot of credit for that.

Sean Casey joined Don Orsillo in the booth today, which was great.  Casey has quite the personality.  Affable guy.  Talkative.  And then Lenny Clarke came and made it interesting, as always.  So it was very entertaining.  After having fluid removed and an injection put into his right hip, Mikey Lowell says he feels great.  And he’s got a sense of humor about it too, which is what you want to see from someone chomping at the bit to get back in the field:

I figure we took the junk out and put good stuff in so we had a good oil change.

Dice-K is headed to Florida on Monday to start a Spring Training-esque strengthening program, which pretty much officially affirms that it’s all the World Baseball Classic’s fault.  If he’d participated in Spring Training with everyone else, he wouldn’t be having these problems.  Looks like the construction on the Twins’ new home, Target Field, is coming along nicely.  It’s actually got natural grass.  And a draft of next year’s schedule sees the Red Sox playing the Twins in their home opener.  I’d hate to see them lose their first game at the new field, but hey, we can’t help being that good.

Happy Fourth of July! And to celebrate Independence Day, Brad Penny will take the mound against Garrett Olson.  Penny’s turned out to be one of the most consistent pitchers on our staff.  With consistently short outings.  Which is another reason to appreciate Wakefield’s eight innings of work last night, even if we did end up going into extras, which was also a good thing because it showed we weren’t ready to lose.  Anyway, because Penny’s outings are short, he needs all the run support he can get, and Olson will probably help us out with that.  Should be a good game.

AP Photo

So I know we all get excited when baseball season is underway.  We love watching our hotties play and our teams do well.  For me, when my beloved Orioles start to suck again, it can be hard to devote my time to following the team.  That is why I have come to love the mid-season call-up.  Trust me, I know who the hotties are on the team, but I’m curious about those boys in the minors.  I know names and who is supposed to be good, but I don’t necessarily know their faces.  So I always look forward to a new face in the clubhouse.

After the jump, I’ve hand selected some drool-worthy hotties. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!

First up…

Nolan is my new Oriole love. He caught my eye with his awesome play and kept it with his stellar looks!

This O's Q&A at ESPN Zone was Nolan's first appearance in the Baltimore community. I was there, and he was looking 10 kinds of hot!

This is another Q&A picture, but I couldn't help myself! I like him without a hat, and he's uber hot when he smiles!

This is Nolan getting a hug from Dave Trembley after his first career walk-off home run. Quick fact: Nolan's first career HR came off of Mariano Rivera! No other player can say that!

Garrett was traded from the O's to the Cubs and then to the Mariners this past offseason. I was pretty bummed!

While I'm not a huge fan of facial hair, I'll take whatever I can get from Garrett! How can you not love a man who appreciates tennis?

Gotta love the messy hair! He's so adorable!

This is one of my all-time favorite pics of Garrett. It just so happens that it was taken with my camera!

I have no idea what this is from, but I think Nick looks pretty hot!

I love this picture for two reasons. 1) Nick looks like he is deathly afraid of the camera/cameraman. 2) He reminds me of Ace from Real World: Paris. Don't tell me you didn't find Ace hot!

I went to the Cardinals/Mets game last week to check out Citi Field. Instead, I ended up checking out Nick Evans! What a cutie!?

Who wouldn't kill to be the meat in a Nick Evans/David Wright sandwich? This was a doubly delicious photo!

Please tell me that this isn't a boy who doesn't know he's hot! I see you, Gio, and you are fine!

I was under the impression that all the hot pitchers had left Oakland. Guess I was wrong!

So us ladies aren't the only ones who want to give Gio a big hug? Gotta love that smile!

Even when he's not smiling, Gio is looking damn good! Yay for hot pitchers back with the A's!

Garrett Olson’s White Knuckle Ride Ends with a Pummelling

With Mariner pitching, seven runs with usually pick up the win. But after racking up 12 strike outs, the M’s offense proves that it’s in no position to win a slug fest. Few players have a bomb to go with their Golden Sombrero, but Branyan’s Jekyll and Hyde season continues to add up statistical oddities. On this night, at least he was able to provide more RBI’s than homers.

With Morrow doing his Joba Chamberlain impersonation tonight, the M’s will need to get a few base runners before this bullpen falls apart like a house of cards.

This doesn’t bode well for Jon Lester at all.  No, sir.  This one was supposed to be a lock; this was supposed to be the definitive return of Jon Lester to dominance, a fresh start to his season with a truly Lester-esque start.  We were on the road, but Lester would be on the mound in his hometown.  He’d see his family, the sites, the sounds, the smells, and somehow he’d find himself again.  Somehow, something somewhere would remind Jon Lester that he is in fact Jon Lester.  Apparently that something got lost in translation and someone missed the memo, because that did not happen.  We lost, 5-4.  Lester pitched just under six innings and relinquished a four-run lead.  He gave up five runs on eight hits with three balls and five K’s.  He gave up two long balls to Ichiro Suzuki, a solo shot in the fifth and a two-run shot in the sixth.  It’s one thing to give up a home run, but to give up two? To the same guy? Are you kidding me? Before this season, did Lester even know how to do that? Bard finished the sixth and pitched all of the seventh, giving up two hits but nothing else.  Saito closed.  Lester got the loss.  He’s now 2-4 on the season.

We scored three earned runs and one unearned.  Ellsbury had an absolutely phenomenal night, going three for five with a run and an RBI.  He was a home run shy of hitting for the cycle, having collected a single, double, and triple for his three hits.  I’m telling you, if you have a hot leadoff man, you’re gold, and Ellsbury is getting hot.  And when he gets hot, he’s so good he scares me.  Pedroia went hitless which I couldn’t believe.  Drew a spread identical to Ellsbury’s: three for five with a run and an RBI.  Bay went hitless but walked three times, inflating his on-base percentage to .449.  So it’s getting up there.  Lowell had a hit, Bailey had a hit, and Lugo had an RBI.  The score was 4-0 in favor of us heading into the fifth inning, but that was quickly the end of that, unfortunately.

David Ortiz was not in the lineup last night.  Tito benched him, and rightly so.  The dude needs a rest and a mental break.  And if Tito wants to bench him for a few more days, that’s fine too.  Extra rest never hurt anybody in a slump.  Of course, the fact that this allows us to make room for some more, shall we say, active bats doesn’t necessarily hurt either.  I do believe Ortiz will bounce back, but in the meantime he’s left 120 men on base and doesn’t have a home run this year.  So I think he could use some time off, however much time that is.

Tonight it’s Beckett at Garrett Olson, and Beckett better hold it together.  Here’s something I never thought I’d say after the offseason: we’re having major pitching issues.  Our starting rotation has a 5.96 ERA, which is the worst in the American League and the second-worst in the Major Leagues.  That’s ridiculous.  Our rotation is loaded.  We do not have the likes of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.  We actually have Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.  So it’s time they start pitching like Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.  They’re healthy, and they each had a great Spring Training.  I don’t know what it is.  Really, I don’t.  This was supposed to be a monster of a season for our pitching staff.  And it is for half of it; our bullpen has a 3.06 ERA which is second-best in the Major Leagues, and that’s all the more impressive when you consider that the bullpen’s been averaging about ten outs a night.  So basically if our starters get it together we’ll be absolutely unhittable and untouchable.  But until that day, the bullpen’s going to work overtime cleaning up the starter’s mess while the starter leaves early after giving up a host of runs.  Changes need to happen, and they need to happen fast.  Dice-K threw his best rehab start yesterday, giving up a walk and two runs on three hits over five innings of work.  He struck out nine.  And John Smoltz is right on schedule; he pitched two innings of extended Spring Training ball yesterday and will probably pitch three more before he starts work in the minor leagues.  So it’s only a matter of time before Dice-K is back, and we’ll probably see Smoltz later in the season.  And let’s not forget that Clay Buchholz has been stellar.  All I’m saying is that Beckett and Lester have a whole lot of shaping up to do.

A good start tonight would be great.  And a win tonight would be great.

AP Photo

Seattle Mariners
61 – 101 (Last, AL West 39 games back)
Runs Scored: 671
Runs Allowed: 811

2008 in Review:

Many, many teams saw the acquisition of Erik Bedard and thought the Mariners would be really, really good – a contender for the AL West crown.  Instead, they had a hard time scoring runs, a harder time preventing them, and even won fewer games than they should have considering that they had the largest gap in runs allowed to runs scored (opponents outscored the Mariners by 140 runs) than anyone in the AL.

In short, they were a team with odd splits, some bad decisions, and the worst record in the American League.

Actually, the Mariners should have been around .500 in April and June, but they underperformed.  An 8 – 20 May put them well out of the race in a hurry, and by the All-Star break, they were working to acquire some warm bodies.

Decisions that didn’t work out?  Erik Bedard was a good acquisition, but he missed more than half the season.  But someone should be held responsible for racing out and giving millions to Miguel Batista (4 – 14, 6.26).  Ouch.  And who’s idea was it to sign Carlos Silva?  (4 – 15, 6.46).  Yes – Silva doesn’t walk anybody, but he’s VERY hittable.  And, some prospects aren’t panning out…  Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement combined to hit about .212 in more than 440 at bats – a lot of outs.  Throw in two or three more off seasons, and you can see where this is headed.

The odd splits?  The Mariners won just one road game in both May and September, and just one home game in June.  Those three splits combined for a 3 – 38 record.  Oh, and lefties couldn’t get left handed hitters out.  In that situation, opponents hit .300, with a .371 on base percentage.

Tell Me About the Offense…

Lousy – and in need of a serious facelift.

The infield featured Richie Sexton, who was released after hitting .218 with 11 homers in half a season.  His replacement, Jeff Clement, hit .227 with only 5 homers.  Bryan LeHair didn’t hit much, either.  Mike Sweeney would have been an improvement if he could stay off the DL – but he can’t.  He’s usually only asked to DH – and his back won’t let him do that much any more.  Jose Lopez was surprisingly productive at second, with 41 doubles and 17 homers.  However Yuniesky Betancourt needed an amazing September to close with production that remains below league average.  At least Adrian Beltre hit well, 25 – 77 – .266, but has never hit anything like that 40+ homer season that got his big contract.  Miguel Cairo played a lot of positions and didn’t help the offense too much.

Ichiro Suzuki continues to slap hits all over the field, generating more than 100 runs of offense by getting on base, but he’s not one of the great offensive dynamos in right field.  He has no power at all, with a .386 slugging percentage.  And his OBA is .363, not .400.  Raul Ibanez is their best hitter – driving in 110 runs without missing a game (you’d never know he was closer to 40 than 30).  He’s in Philadelphia now, and will be very, very difficult to replace.  The third outfielder was a disappointment – Brad Wilkerson, Balentien, Jeremy Reed.  Willie Bloomquist got on base a little, but after that does little to help an offense score runs.

The catchers, led by Kenji Johjima and his power-free .227 batting average didn’t put any runs on the board.  And, the DHs – the retired Jose Vidro – were hopeless.  (Except the rare Mike Sweeney days.)

Defense:

Johjima and Jamie Burke weren’t horrible.  For all the baserunners allowed, few stole second.  Clement didn’t stop anybody from stealing, but his best shot is to find his swing and play first base.  Overall, they score poorly because the team record and ERA were awful, and they don’t score well in terms of mobility (assists per game that aren’t stolen bases).  Maybe teams didn’t need to bunt off of these guys (and they didn’t).

The infield wasn’t too bad, but they had holes.  Sexton is an awful fielder and the infield got better the minute he moved out of town.  Lopez has a bit of range, but is error prone.  Beltre appears to have lost a step, and Betancourt’s range is slightly below average – and his reputation for not hustling isn’t going to help his range.  He makes a lot of errors, too.

The outfield is okay – Suzuki’s range in center was pretty good, but his range in right (despite his speed) was actually below average.  Ibanez is league average – impressive for his age.  Balentien is okay in right, but neither he nor Jeremy Reed are really any good in center.  Bloomquist covers a lot of ground in center, but didn’t get too many innings there.

Now Pitching:

The rotation should have been better.  Felix Hernandez made 30 starts and was solid.  Bedard was okay for 15 starts, but missed the rest of the year with a bum shoulder.  Jarrod Washburn was disappointing and either needs to learn another pitch or accept that he’s fifth starter material.  His record was poor (5 – 14), but some of that was offense, too.  However, Batista was 27.5 runs worse than the average pitcher, and Silva was even worse – 32 runs below average.  Ryan Feierabend would have been in that league, but he only made eight scary starts.  R.A. Dickey looks like a young Miguel Batista, and that’s not going to help any.

The bullpen lost closer J.J. Putz, but Brandon Morrow was solid in his place.  Roy Corcoran had a solid season in middle relief, though his lack of strikeouts makes me think it was a fluke.  Mark Lowe isn’t long for the majors if he pitches like this, but Ryan Rowland-Smith was very good pitching as a starter or reliever.  I’d put him in the rotation.  Sean Green pitched a lot – but won’t be here as he was signed by the Mets.

Forecasting 2009:

We’re talking about a team that has to close the gap between runs scored and allowed by 140 runs to get to .500.  Let’s see what we got.

A full season of Erik Bedard would help, and Rowland-Smith instead of Silva means the potential for 30 or 40 runs of savings.  Clement instead of Sexton could be 10 runs of improvement in the defense.  Franklin Gutierrez is a great outfielder, he might be worth 10 runs, too.  I just don’t see any other defensive option – unless whomever takes over in left field (likely Balentien) is going to that much better than Ibanez.  Besides, with Putz gone, is Brandon Morrow a closer or starter?  Batista could become a closer (I wouldn’t, though he did it a few years ago for Toronto), or you could try Mark Lowe or somebody.  But I don’t know how it’s going to be better than last year’s bullpen – I don’t see the depth.

Offensively, Balentien is no Ibanez – that could be 30 runs less in offense.  Franklin Gutierrez arrives to play the outfield from Cleveland – I like what brings.  He’ll help out some – he’s 15 runs better than Bloomquist and Reed combined, it not more, and plays better in the field.  I know Ken Griffey, Jr. is back – and that’s great for ticket sales, but he’s not an offensive force anymore.  Still, as badly as Jose Vidro was, he’s probably worth 20 runs of improvement.  The one BIG improvement might be giving Russell Branyan, a free agent signing, a shot to play DH.  He might be so happy to have a full-time job, he’d improve the offense 50 or 60 runs by himself by playing first or DH.  Clement or Johjima might do better at the plate – 10 more runs from the catcher’s spot.

Let’s add it up.  Instead of giving up 811 runs, they might get it to 751.  Instead of scoring 671 runs, they might score 735.  That means a record of about 79 – 83, which would still be a pretty solid improvement.  The lineup is better than what they had last year, and the rotation could be better, while the bullpen is a question mark.  I’ll buy 79 wins.

The real question is this:  If they are any good in July, are they going to make a run at winning the division, or sell off Washburn and Lopez and Beltre?  I sure hope not.  One more starter and a legitimate extra hitter might make this team the division winner.

Down on the Farm:

AAA Tacoma has a few players who, on the surface, look like they might help – but remember to discount stats in the PCL…  The best prospect was Jeff Clement, who was hitting .335 with power, but hasn’t yet panned out in the majors.  That means the 23-year-old Wladimir Balentien (.266 with serious power) shouldn’t be expected to hit .280, but more like .220.  Matt Tuiasosopo, son of Manu, may have a future as a third baseman, but he’s not ready yet.  If he raises his numbers from 13 – 73 – .281 to, say, 20 – 90 – .320, I’d say he’s ready.  He’s a kid though – just 23.  Infielder Luis Valbuena might be okay – just 22, gets on base, can run – but not a really high batting average.  If he gets on base, though, he’s a potential upgrade over Betancourt.

In terms of pitchers, the Mariners gave a shot to anyone with good control already (R.A. Dickey, Feierabend, Chris Jakubauskas).  None are legitimate prospects.

AA West Tennessee (the Diamond Jaxx) have one pitcher I like – reliever Shawn Kelley, who has control, power, and a little record of success.  He’s a future bullpen guy.  Catcher Adam Moore hit .319 with some power; if he’s going to take Johjima’s spot, he needs a solid year in AAA in 2009.  Michael Saunders is a young speedy outfielder with a future – could be a centerfielder or left fielder if he picks it up in AAA next year. 

The guys at High Desert (A+) to look for?  I like teenaged infielder Carlos Triunfel, who has a little power and a lot of speed – and a whole lot of upside.  Gregory Halman is 20 and already has signs of being a power hitter.  In Wisconsin, Michael Pineda looks like a potential ace starter (8 – 6, 1.95 – good K/W numbers), and Nathan Adcock is a starter with a live arm – perhaps too live (13 WPs).  2007 first round pick Phillippe Aumont is roaring through the minors with killer stuff.  He’ll be in the bigs by the end of 2010 at this rate.

Baltimore Orioles
2008: 68-93 (5th AL East, 28.5 games back)
Runs Scored: 782
Runs Allowed: 869

With the trade of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard to Houston and Seattle respectively for prospects, 2008 represented the first year of a rebuilding plan in the American League’s toughest division.  But these Orioles weren’t half bad.  Sure, they were 22 – 50 inside their division, but actually above .500 against everyone else (46 – 43).  The reason?  The Orioles had a decent offense and a handful of young pitchers finding their way.  It’s a good time to be a Baltimore fan – just don’t expect to make the playoffs until a rotation anchor or two can be found.

Looking Back on 2008

With 782 runs scored, the Orioles finished in the middle of the league in terms of scoring – just a few runs behind the Yankees.  What they lacked was pitching and defense – having allowed 869 runs, which was next to last in the American League.

Baltimore got off to a great start – winning sixteen in April and fighting for the division lead for the first month.  Things slowed in May thanks to a streak against their own division where they lost ten of thirteen, but a solid June followed.  Even though the leaders in the division were starting to pull away, the Orioles were still five games over .500 as late as June 20th.  Heck, if Toronto had a 39 – 34 record at this point in the season, the way they finished, the Blue Jays might have won a playoff spot.

Instead, the Orioles got cold after the all-star break.  Ending a five-game losing streak had them at .500 for the last time on July 11th, and from that point on, Baltimore was a non-factor, losing a few games each month to .500 until September, when playing rookies killed the overall record.  The Orioles went 5 – 20 to close the season, ruining what had been, until then, a reasonably successful summer in Camden Yards.

Tell me about that offense

Behind the plate, the new Cincinnati Red, Ramon Hernandez, held his own.  He provided a little power, and a .250+ batting average, but not much else. Hernandez has actually slipped some from his performance in 2006, which didn’t help, but his backup, Guillermo Quiroz, couldn’t hit .200 in 134 at bats.

The infield was reasonably strong at two spots.  Third baseman Melvin Mora had a decent enough season, driving in 104 runs and batting .285.  Second sacker Brian Roberts is a great leadoff hitter, just missing .300, hitting 51 doubles, adding some triples and homers, a lot of walks, and 40 stolen bases in 50 chances.  Kevin Millar struggled to hit .234, but even that had a few homers and some walks.  For the position, that’s not good enough and he’s likely to move to a bench role with another team in 2009.  Where the Orioles really struggled was finding a consistent option at short.  Of the guys playing at least 200 innings (and nobody played more than 400 innings there), the best hitting option was former White Sox prospect Alex Cintron, who hit .286 but with little power or other helpers.  The rest averaged about .200 as a group, including Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Juan Castro.

The outfield featured rookie Adam Jones, who hit .270, but showed room for power potential, a little speed, but not much else at this stage.  As such, he’s mildly below average as a hitter, but if he could step forward one or two notches, he could help.  Luke Scott came over from Houston and hit well enough, with 23 homers and showing some plate discipline.  However, his occasional platoon partner, Jay Payton, struggled at the plate – so the net result wasn’t exactly positive.  Rightfielder Nick Markakis continued to show growth as a future star, hitting for power (20 – 87 – .306) and getting on base.

If Markakis wasn’t the best hitter on the team, it was Aubrey Huff, who had a career season (32 – 108 – .304.)  Both scored about 7.5 runs per 27 outs, and anchored the offense.  Only Oscar Salazar hit well off the bench, and he didn’t have 100 plate appearances.

Defensively:

Baltimore pitchers worked with a defense that was not quite league average…  The league turned converted 68.6% batted balls in play into outs.  Baltimore finished at .68.5%.

Around the horn, Mora and Millar was just a touch above average, while Brian Roberts was just a touch below league average.  Most of the shortstops had decent defensive stats except Bynum, so while the offense at short was lacking, the defense was not.  However, the team was rather weak in terms of turning double plays in part because there were a lot of flyball pitchers and Roberts was working with a different partner most of the season.

Markakis and Scott were a shade off of league average, while Adam Jones was slightly worse than that.  When Jay Payton played, he couldn’t hit but the ball found his glove.  Luis Montanez, however, played three outfield positions and never seemed to be standing where the ball was hit…  Between them all, the outfield was actually below average and with a fly ball staff, this was a problem.

Hernandez had an awful year throwing out runners – 99 of the 123 people who tried to steal were successful.  Throw in the fact that he was slightly above average in terms of mistakes per game and that the staff’s ERA and winning percentage wasn’t very strong, my system suggests that Hernandez was among the weaker catchers in the AL.

Now Pitching…

Only two pitchers had really strong seasons for Baltimore.  Starter Jeremy Guthrie was about 19 runs better than the average pitcher, going 10 – 12, with good control through a few too many balls left the yard.  It was the second solid season for Guthrie, who is far and away the ace of the staff.  Middle reliever Jim Johnson didn’t allow a homer all season, which kept his ERA down, and despite having ordinary walk and strikeout data was also valuable for the Orioles.

Unfortunately, too many guys were WAY below average here.  Among the rotation starters, Brian Burres (-21 runs), Daniel Cabrera (-14 runs), Radhames Liz (-22 runs), Garrett Olson (-29 runs), and Steve Trachsel (-20 runs in 8 starts) got the Orioles in the hole early all too often.  Chris Waters came up and had 11 middling to below average starts with a 5.01 ERA and was an improvement.

The bullpen had Chad Bradford for a while, and George Sherrill had 33 saves, but they weren’t by any means awesome.  Sherrill’s ERA was 4.73, so he wasn’t setting the AL on fire as the Orioles’ fireman.  Most of the other relievers, including Dennis Sarfate, Lance Cormier, Jamie Walker and others struggled to put up league average numbers.  Compare that to the staffs of Boston, New York, or Tampa (much less Toronto), and you can see where the team needs to improve.

Forecasting 2009:

Ideally, the Orioles would like to see a little more offense, but more importantly, they have to find ways to keep the other team from scoring runs.  To get to .500, you’re talking about cutting more than 100 runs from the runs allowed, which means finding six decent pitchers and improving the outfield defense.

Offensively, the changes start at catcher (Greg Zaun for Ramon Hernandez, with Matt Wieters possibly getting his shot at some point this season), as well as first base (Millar is gone, with Ty Wigginton here).  Cesar Izturis arrives from St. Louis to play short – he’s not a championship quality hitter, but will be an improvement over the crew who played here last year.  It looks like the Orioles will not be trading Brian Roberts (they shouldn’t), which helps, and if Melvin Mora stays productive, the infield will be solid.  Defensively, they are probably 5 to 10 runs better, and offensively they are probably 15 runs better.

The outfield has added Felix Pie and Ryan Freel, but I don’t see how either of them will take Jones, Scott, or Markakis out of the lineup.  However, Pie could be the surprise – and as a defensive replacement, he’ll be solid.  The outfield of Scott, Jones, and Markakis can still produce runs, but more importantly there are a couple of bench performers who can contribute.  Offensively this is probably worth ten runs, and defensively, this could be worth ten runs, too.

Zaun is a better defensive catcher than Hernandez, but he’s been catching since Doug Ault was in Toronto (not really), and his contribution will not last the season.  Of the NRIs, Robby Hammock might play, and he can at least hit the ball some.  Chad Moeller and Guillermo Quiroz are in camp, but neither will be making a big contribution in the near future.  Matt Wieters has a job as soon as he’s ready.

One assumes that Huff should stay productive in his role, but he was so good last year, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s off by ten runs this season.

There are, oh, 120 pitchers in camp in Ft. Lauderdale hoping to make the Orioles roster in April.  Guthrie is still here, and Rich Hill arrives from Chicago trying to put his career back together.  Hill would be a step up if he brings his best game.  The rest are a bunch of unknowns.  Matt Alberts was better as a reliever, but he could start some and be an improvement of ten runs over somebody.  Brian Bass comes over from Minnesota where, as a reliever, he wasn’t special.  As a starter he was tolerable here in Baltimore.  He might get a shot.  Troy Patton came over with the Tejada deal, he might be ready for a few starts.  George Sherrill needs to up his performance – and someone else needs to help out in the bullpen.

The problem is that they are all unproven rookies or second year guys.  Could they be better?  Sure – but it’s just not something you can predict with any dependability.

As such, I see the runs scored/runs allowed breakdown to be somewhere around 800/850, which translates to about 76 wins.  In this division, that’s a tall order, but there are enough pieces to see a better team in Baltimore.  If one or two pitchers step up in the rotation – a Hill and a Sherrill, for example – suddenly these guys are approaching .500 – and that’s pretty impressive.  When a few more young arms make it to the majors, this team might be ready to compete for a playoff spot.

Down on the Farm…

AAA Norfolk’s best hitter was Oscar Salazar (13 – 85 – .316), who got a cup of coffee with the big league club and played well.  He could have slid into the first base slot, and may well get this job after spending a decade in the minors (he’s 30).  He’s just been blocked everywhere he’s been (Oakland, the Mets, Detroit, Kansas City, Anaheim, and Cleveland), and he wasn’t a good enough middle infielder when he was younger.  However, with the ability to play the whole infield, he’s a good bench option.  Radhames Liz and Jim Miller pitched well enough to earn shots with the parent club last year.

Matt Wieters, the future catcher, hit .365 at AA Bowie in 208 at bats, with 12 homers and 51 RBI.  He can’t be far off…  Lou Montanez and Nolan Reimhold hit for power; Montanez had the higher batting average, but Reimhold has the better plate discipline.  David Hernandez and Chris Tillman led a quartet of Bay Sox pitchers to double-digit victories (the others were Brad Bergeson and Jason Berken, two other potential studs).  Both showed killer K/9 rates and will be in line for rotation spots by 2010 if not sometime this summer.  Julio Manon dominated as the closer – he’s just not a young prospect.  He’s 36 this summer.

Cole McMurray and Pat Egan led the hurlers at Aberdeen (High A), with closer Brandon Cooney (from nearby Florida Atlantic – near me, anyway) showing strong numbers.  Other than Wieters, the Frederick Keys also had first baseman Brandon Snyder (15 – 80 – .315) and pitchers Brandon Erbe and Jake Arrieta, who both had strong strikeout numbers if not solid won-loss records.

Bye, Garrett Olson

We hope you ‘ll fondly recall

Your week as a Cub

Will his fantasy baseball approach work in building the Cubs in '09?

It’s official.  Jim Hendry is the MLB version of me.  Those that have sparred with me in fantasy baseball know how much I love to talk, trade, and tinker with my team until I’ve got everything in a perfect line.  I even get into serious trade talks with people when I’m 100% satisfied with my team.  Wheeling and dealing is a drug; it’s an addiction.  I love crunching the numbers, and wavering for hours on whether or not to make a move.  I get especially excited when I’ve swindled someone in a trade (see: Jacobs, Justin).

Let’s recap the two trades the Cubs have made in the last week-and-a-half:

1. Cubs Receive:
-LHP Garrett Olson
-RHP Henry Williamson

Orioles Receives:
-OF Felix Pie

2. Cubs Receive:
-RHP Aaron Heilman

Mariners Receive
-SS Ronny Cedeno
-LHP Garrett Olson

Essentially, the Cubs traded former can’t-miss prospect Felix Pie, and ‘Rally Killing’ Ronny Cedeno for Aaron Heilman and Henry Williamson, with Garrett Olson being strung along through the process.  Am I happy about what has gone down?  In a word: no.

I’ve stated in the past that I’m a fan of Jim Hendry and am content with the way he’s ran the Cubs to date.  He does however, make some head-scratching trades every once in a while.

He'll get the shot in Baltimore he was never afforded in Chicago.

Trading Felix Pie was a painful day for many Cubs fans.  It was the second time in five years the North Siders gave up on a 5-tool outfielder (see: Patterson, Corey).  In Chicago, young players don’t always get a fair shot.  If they don’t cut the mustard early and often, they are ridiculed by the media, which eventually turns the fans against them.  Pie was dealt because of a roster squeeze, and it’s the worst way to lose a player because of the lack of value that you get in return.  He would’ve had to stay on the Cubs active roster the entire season if they would’ve kept him and when a team knows you’re in a bind, they don’t exactly give you a pick of the litter.  If they would’ve wanted to send him to Iowa, Pie would have had to clear waivers first and that just doesn’t happen with 24-year-old OF with the raw abilities that he has shown (Cedeno was in the same situation).

What disappoints me the most is that the Cubs were so hell bent on getting maximum offense out of all eight fielding positions, that Pie’s true value was hidden by his poor performances at the plate.  What was wrong with him not hitting well, but playing spectacular defense in center field while batting in the eight spot?  In his major league career he has 281 plate appearances, which is roughly 3/5 of a season.  In two years with the big club, that is a pretty small sample size to try and prove yourself.

Alas, he was gone a week ago and I had to convince myself to like Garrett Olson (since Williamson will probably never make the majors).  Trying to persuade yourself to like a player that had a 6.65 ERA in 2008, bring his career ERA down is tough task, but I wasn’t doing half bad.  I kept reminding myself that he had three things going for him.  One, he pitched in the extremely difficult AL East.  Two, he is left-handed.  And three, he was a top-50 pick in the 2005 draft.  In the immortal words of Herm Edwards, WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!

Don't let the door hit ya on the way out, Ronny!

So much for getting excited about Olson.  The Cubs shipped him and one of my least favorite Cubs, (I call him “Rally Killing” because he was always good for a strikeout or popout in a key situation with men on base during his career) Ronny Cedeno.  He got his full-time shot in 2006, but was less than stellar.  The payback Chicago received from Seattle in exchange for Olson and Cedeno was the recently acquired Aaron Heilman.  Let’s just say that being a ‘team player’ isn’t exactly one of his strong suits.  Late last season, he was whining to the higher ups in New York (Mets) that he wanted to be a starter again.  He hadn’t ever fared well as a starter before, but after struggling for a bulk of the season in a relief role, he thought that six innings of his 5+ ERA would be better than his usual one.  Jeeez, I wonder why the Mets weren’t quick to  jump on that opportunity?

Two conclusions can be drawn from the pair of trades Chicago made.  One, the Jake Peavy deal is probably not going to happen.  Two of the major trade pieces were going to be included in the deal were Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno, who now both play in a different league.  The Cubs minor league system is horribly thin and without these two fringe average (albeit young) major leaguers to sweeten the deal, the Padres won’t have any desire to trade their most talented player.  Secondly, they’ve made it clear that they’re going with the poor mans theory in the bullpen…throw a bunch of crap against the wall and see what sticks.  Quality relief pitching fluctuates so heavily from year-t0-year that sometimes the best option is to get a bunch of guys that are decent, and pray a couple have an above-average season.  I’d love to have Kerry Wood manning the closer role, but instead we’re stuck with a couple of talented guys along with a few has-beens.

So goes the life of a Cubs fan…