Rise and shine, campers.

• It sort of amazes me how you can compose an article entitled “The dynamics of a coaching search” with barely a mention of big boosters, but that’s Tom Dienhart for you.
• With the new SEC TV contracts, night time is in, more than some schools like.
• Here’s Brian McCormack’s follow-up on bowl ticket demand.  Forty bucks for the Independence Bowl – suck on that exhaust, Music City!
• I do not envy Mark Richt for the decision he’s got to make about Montez Robinson.
• Perhaps he should call Urban Meyer for input.  Not.
• No more interns on the road for Junior.
• It looks like Iowa folks are starting to learn what we’ve always known about Georgia Tech.
• I know this is merely a letter to the editor, but if that position for Secretary for College Football Affairs ever opens up, I’d like to go on record now as saying I’d be willing to serve.
• Nick Saban is one fixated individual.

College Football Playoffs?

We all have our ideas of what the BCS should do… or should NOT do, and I suppose mine is no different. As I blog this, there are five undefeated teams in the national spotlight, stirring up controversy on whether there ought to be a college playoff system.

I am not really FOR the playoffs, but not really against it. Let me explain why.

To me, I think the arguments for playoffs are for those who think that the little guy ought to be held in the same esteem as the big guy. Ok, I see a reason for that, but I go back to something an old school wrestler named Ric Flair once said…

“In order to BE the man, you have to BEAT the man”

If you want to be considered up there with the big boys, then play a schedule like them. This is my biggest argument against teams like Boise State, because they had numerous opportunities to make a more challenging schedule, but opted not to do so because they seemed to want sympathy from those sitting on the fence.

I mean, their schedule was weak as water, after you take out Oregon. And granted, that was a great win…in your house… against a first time head coach… in his first game with the Ducks…nice.

But it still is a very quality win. So why did you schedule Miami of Ohio and UC Davis…what’s that about?

To me, before you start whining about playoffs, make sure that we are talking about legit teams. Now, I know TCU is not in the Championship game, and I actually do feel that they deserve strong consideration, and I am not too happy about them playing Boise State in a repeat bowl…that game proves nothing.

Before we start whining about playoffs, we have to define those parameters. First off, how many should be in it. Right off the bat, I don’t believe in a 16 team system, too many teams that have no business fighting for a National title. When you only play 12 or so games, you don’t need 16 teams claiming rights to the throne.

How about 8 teams? I wonder about that too. Go back in your NCAA history books of college football and see how many teams ranked #8 or 7 had a legit shot at a NCAA title…not very many.

To me, the arguments about who should play in the National Championship usually fall on 2-4 teams. Of course, you may argue with me that maybe Boise State, or maybe Florida has a case, but with Florida losing, I would doubt that, and Boise State just has not played a tough enough schedule to prove that they are an elite team. They are just a great team in a soft conference.

So I think IF you have a playoff, it should be the FOUR best teams in the nation. Think about it, Pittsburgh, LSU, Georgia Tech, USC, Ohio State and teams of that ilk have no real claim to the throne.

Second, if you really want to figure on who is the best, force EVERY conference to determine a true champion. Either by playing every team in their conference or having a conference championship. This eliminates the probability of two undefeated teams out of one conference that may not even play each other….BIG 10 for example.

It is conceivable that the Big 10 could have two undefeated teams in their conference, since they don’t play every opponent, and don’t have a conference championship. I think that needs to be fixed, if that means adding one more team to make it an even 12, fine, either that or find some way to have one true champion.

The Pac-10 does not have a championship game, but they do play everybody, so in essence you still get a true champion. We know the ACC, Big 12 and SEC does have a true championship game, and the Big East has a small conference to in theory they can have a true champion, since they would play everybody in their conference.

But the big question comes with non BCS conferences…mainly the Mountain West and WAC. Remember folks, years ago they used to be one super conference, with 16 teams, before they split up…would have been better if they did not. Had they not, then you would have the Boise States, TCUs, Utahs, and other teams would face each other and we would have a TRUE champion, which also would make a much stronger case for the BCS.

But even then, there are so many stipulations that nobody has thought of. The results of this year dictate what people want to see, what if next year is different? What if next year there is only 2 undefeated teams, why then would there need to be a playoff if we have the two best teams in the nation?

If Alabama and Texas were the only undefeated teams in the nation, we would not be having this conversation about playoffs would we? So the temperature of playoffs is based only on what we last saw. What if each of the BCS teams produces an undefeated team, along with the Mountain West and WAC…what if the Mid American Conference puts out an undefeated team…they did last year with Ball State.

So in theory, you could have 9 undefeated teams, what do you do then? What if Notre Dame (ugh) goes undefeated? What if Conference USA produces an undefeated team. Where does this end?

Now these are extremes, but you see my point.

Do I think there needs to be a better way to decide the national champs, maybe, but the smaller teams can help their case by taking out their cupcakes and putting in real meat. TCU to their credit did this, so I can see their argument, but not quite for Boise State.

So, with Congress getting involved (although I don’t see why), things may change sooner than later…but unfortunately, it all comes down to money…ironic since we are talking about sports and college students…that never changes…

Greed, that is…playoffs…maybe.

Think Oregon has the upper hand tonight over instate rival Oregon State because of a high-powered offense? Think again. The Beavers have an attack that is almost as potent and they have a much better defense. Will that translate into a victory and send OSU to the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than 40 years? Or will the Ducks get the win and go to Pasadena in search of their first Rose Bowl win since 1917?

One of these teams from the Pacific Wonderland is going to provide the opposition to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and we may as well begin familiarizing ourselves with the enemy right now.

You probably already know about most of Oregon’s weapons because of the media attention it has received since the season opener against Boise State. Of course, most of the spotlight from that game was unwanted after running back LeGarrette Blount punched a Boise State player in the wake of the Ducks’ 19-8 loss to the Broncos.

Since then, however, Oregon has won nine of 10 including a 47-20 prime-time pounding of USC in late October. The Ducks possess the No. 7 scoring offense in the country, averaging 37.7 points per game overall. They’ve been even better than that recently. Over their last five contests, the Quack Attack is averaging a cool 44.0 points per game.

At the controls of that offense is dual-threat quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who has nearly 5,000 yards in total offense for his career. This season, he has thrown for 1,865 yards and 14 TDs and run for 619 yards and 12 scores. If Masoli has a weakness, it would be his pass efficiency. He ranks only sixth in the Pac-10 in that category, completing 58.3 percent of his 264 attempts so far and averaging a middling 7.1 yards per attempt.

But he rarely makes mistakes – Masoli has pitched only four interceptions all season, meaning he throws a pick only once every 66 attempts.

The junior QB has completed passes to a number of receivers this season but he has two favorite targets. Senior tight end Ed Dickson leads Oregon with 551 yards and six TDs on 42 receptions while junior wideout Jeff Maehl has 46 catches for 548 yards and five scores.

For all of the publicity Masoli and the passing game generate, you need to keep your eye on the Oregon running game because that is what truly makes the Ducks go. They rank eighth in the country in rushing, thanks mostly to freshman tailback LaMichael James. He entered the breach left by Blount, who was suspended after the Boise State game incident, and James has proceeded to roll up 1,310 yards and 11 TDs.

Add Masoli’s slithery mobility to James’ raw talent, mix in three other running backs with at least 130 yards and two TDs each, and the Ducks make it difficult for any opposing defense to stop their running game.

Then again, they have yet to face a defense that is as good against the run as Oregon State. The Beavers rank 13th in the country in rushing defense and allow an average of only 98.5 yards per game. OSU has surrendered 149 yards or less on the ground in 10 of its 11 games this season; Oregon has rushed for at least 175 yards in 10 of its 11 games. In other words, something’s got to give tonight.

Oregon State has an attacking defense featuring 11 players with at least two tackles for loss. Senior linebacker Keaton Kristick is the unit’s leader with 80 tackles, including seven for loss. He also has two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Up front, junior tackle Stephen Paea is the guy the Ducks will have to negate. Paea has 36 tackles, including 5½ for loss, three sacks and two forced fumbles.

Want to know just how good Oregon State can be on defense? The Beavers held Cincinnati to 5 of 14 on third-down conversions back in mid-September during a 28-18 loss to the Bearcats. In addition to everything else UC does well on offense, it is near the top of the national stats in third-down efficiency.

Oregon State also held Stanford running back Toby Gerhart to 96 yards in early October during a 38-28 win over the Cardinal. Gerhart is the nation’s No. 2 rusher and the Beavers held him to nearly 50 yards below his average.

Offensively, Oregon State can pretty much match Oregon in star power with sophomore running back Jacquizz Rodgers and senior quarterback Sean Canfield.

Rodgers ranks ninth in the nation with an average of 119.4 yards per game, and he has totaled 1,313 yards and 19 TDs this season. Meanwhile, Canfield is the Pac-10 leader in pass efficiency. He has completed 70.3 percent of his 370 attempts so far for 2,797 yards and 19 touchdowns against only six interceptions.

The Ducks will try to rattle Canfield – they rank second in their conference in pass defense, third in sacks and third in interceptions. But Oregon has had difficulty stopping the run this season, ranking 40th nationally and fifth in the Pac-10 in rushing defense, and Rodgers could be a difference-maker for the Beavers. He missed last year’s Civil War, and not coincidentally the Ducks ran off with a 65-38 victory. Masoli threw for 274 yards and three TDs in that game as Oregon piled up 694 yards of total offense.

Oregon is 9-2 with losses to Boise State and Stanford, teams with a combined 20-4 record and .833 winning percentage. Oregon State is 8-3 with losses to Cincinnati, Arizona and USC, teams with a combined record of 26-7 (.788).

The Ducks last appeared in the Rose Bowl in 1995, losing a 38-20 decision to Penn State. They haven’t won a Rose Bowl game since a 14-0 win over Penn in 1917.

The Beavers haven’t been to Pasadena since 1965, losing a 34-7 decision to Michigan. Oregon State won its only Rose Bowl in 1942 with a 20-16 victory over Duke. However, that game was moved to Wade Wallace Stadium on the Duke campus in Durham, N.C., following the attack on Pearl Harbor.

In the spirit of full disclosure, both Oregon teams know how it feels to win in the Rose Bowl, beating UCLA there in recent years. The Beavers rolled to a 34-6 win over the Bruins in Pasadena last season while the Ducks scored a 24-10 victory over UCLA on Oct. 10.

But neither team knows how it feels to beat Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 9-0 all-time against Oregon and Oregon State, including a 10-7 win over the Ducks in the 1958 Rose Bowl.

Enjoy tonight’s game.

THIS WEEK IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY

** Fifteen years ago, a pair of familiar combatants squared off as the Southeastern Conference staged its first-ever championship game. On Dec. 3, 1994, Florida quarterback Danny Wuerffel threw a 2-yard touchdown pass with five minutes left, and the No. 6 Gators squeezed out a 24-23 victory over undefeated and third-ranked Alabama.

** Also occurring during this week in college football history: On Dec. 1, 1951, sixth-ranked Georgia Tech forced an NCAA-record 13 turnovers (five fumbles and eight interceptions) during a 48-6 victory over instate rival Georgia; on Dec. 2, 1990, Houston quarterback David Klinger set a new Division I-A single-game record by throwing for 716 yards in a 62-45 victory over Arizona State; on Dec. 5, 1993, Wisconsin went all the way to Tokyo to score a 41-20 win over Michigan State, clinching the Badgers’ first Rose Bowl trip in 31 years; and on Dec. 6, 1873, Yale defeated Eton Players of England by a 2-1 final. It was the first college football game in the U.S. played with 11 men on each side.

**Today also marks the 124th anniversary of the birth of former Ohio State football coach Francis A. Schmidt. Born Dec. 3, 1885, in Downs, Kansas, Schmidt was one of the most accomplished and colorful coaches in college football history. He played at Nebraska, where he earned a law degree, and later rose to the rank of captain in the U.S. Army during World War II. Schmidt began his head coaching career in 1919 and served stints at Tulsa, Arkansas, TCU, Ohio State and Idaho. While with the Buckeyes, he became the first (and still only) head coach to beat Michigan in each of his first four tries and Schmidt also instituted the Gold Pants Club to mark each victory over the Wolverines. Schmidt retired from coaching following the 1942 season and died two years later of a heart attack at the age of 58. He was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 1971.

AROUND THE COUNTRY

** Heading down to the wire and there are still six undefeated teams remaining in Division I-A. Congratulations to TCU, which completed its regular season with perfect a 12-0 record, the school’s first unbeaten regular season since 1938. Meanwhile, Boise State, Cincinnati, Texas, Alabama and Florida still have one more contest to play.

** There were pros and cons to firing Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis. One of the arguments for keeping Weis was that all his team was competitive in every game this season. All six of the Fighting Irish’s losses this season were by seven points or less. One of the main arguments for letting him go: Notre Dame has lost at least six games in each of the last three years, the longest such streak in school history.

** Lost amid the hubbub surrounding the Weis firing and the forced retirement of Bobby Bowden was the news that our old friend Mark Snyder resigned Nov. 29 as head coach at Marshall. Snyder, the former defensive coordinator at Ohio State, posted a 21-37 record in five seasons at his alma mater. The Thundering Herd were 6-6 this year.

** Coaching for the old alma mater isn’t always what it’s cracked up to be. Virginia fired Al Groh after nine seasons with the Cavaliers. Groh’s dismissal came the day after his team finished 3-9, the program’s worst record since a 2-9 mark in 1982.

** Bobby Bowden’s departure from Florida State means that Joe Paterno will likely have the all-time Division I victories record forever. JoePa has 393 wins and counting (Bowden had 388) and next on the active list are Jim Tressel of Ohio State and Frank Beamer of Virginia Tech with 228 each. (Tressel will be 57 on Saturday and Beamer is 63.) With the proliferation of big-money contracts and high-profile stress, it seems illogical to believe anyone will ever approach Paterno’s win total.

** Of course, JoePa still ranks third in all-time coaching victories at the college level. He trails the late Eddie Robinson of Grambling (408) and Division III Saint John’s (Minn.) head coach John Gagliardi, still going strong with 471 career wins. Gagliardi guided the Johnnies to a 10-0 record this season, but they were upset 34-27 by Coe College (Iowa) in the first round of the D-III playoffs.

** By the way, in case you entertain the notion that Tressel or Beamer could reach Paterno’s win total, realize that both men would have to win 10 games every season for the next 17 years just to get close to 400. That would put both men well past retirement age – Tressel will be 57 on Saturday and Beamer is 63 – and neither has expressed any desire to stay in the profession that long.

** I won’t cast my vote until early next week, but after watching his performance on Thanksgiving night against Texas A&M, I am 99.9 percent sure I will vote for Texas QB Colt McCoy. Who gets my second- and third-place votes are still to be determined this weekend from a group that includes Florida QB Tim Tebow, Alabama RB Mark Ingram, Boise State QB Kellen Moore and Stanford RB Toby Gerhart.

** The talking heads at ESPN are probably the only people in America (outside of Florida, of course) who believe Tim Tebow still has a chance to win the Heisman. According to ESPN, Tebow is the greatest player in college football history. While I have absolutely nothing against Tebow, and will admit he has been an outstanding player, he is not the greatest player in history. In fact, he is not even the greatest player of his era when you crunch hard numbers. For his four-year career, Tebow has rushed and passed for a combined 11,389 yards and 140 TDs. Compare those stats to Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour, who has accounted for 15,140 yards and 145 TDs in his career.

** This week’s fun stat (unless you are a fan of the following teams): Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Florida State, Georgia and USC combined for a 39-32 record this season. Go back just three short years ago to the 2006 season and you find a 59-20 combined record for those six schools.

** For the record, I didn’t like the Nike Pro Combat uniforms worn by Ohio State during the Michigan game. And after watching Florida wear their version last Saturday, I’m convinced Nike is letting some third-grader design some of these unis with a bunch of Crayolas. For the record, Clemson, Florida State, LSU and Missouri joined the Gators in wearing Pro Combat uniforms last weekend and the record was 3-2 for the duds (pun intended).

** Congratulations to SMU for earning its first bowl bid since earning the NCAA death penalty back in 1987. The Mustangs got a pretty nice invitation, too. They will spend the Christmas holiday at the Hawaii Bowl, set for Dec. 24 in Honolulu. Of course, a trip to the islands is old hat for SMU head coach June Jones, who spent nine seasons as head coach at Hawaii from 1999-2007.

** For sheer excitement, it would have been hard to beat the Division I-AA playoff game last weekend between top seed Montana and South Dakota State. The undefeated Grizzlies fell behind SDSU by a 48-21 score with 5:40 remaining in the third quarter before storming back for 40 unanswered points and a 61-48 victory.

** There were other fantastic finishes in the Football Championship Division (aka I-AA) playoffs. Elon missed a pair of field goal attempts in the final 90 seconds, allowing defending national champion Richmond to squeak by with a 16-13 victory. And Appalachian State took a 20-13 win over South Carolina State when the Bulldogs botched a snap on a field goal attempt and Appy State’s Dominique McDuffie ran 50 yards with the loose ball for the game-winning touchdown.

** In Division III, powerhouse Mount Union remains the team to beat. The Purple Raiders, seeking their fourth championship in the past five seasons and 11th title since 1993, rolled into the quarterfinals with a 62-14 win over Montclair State.

** Mount Union head coach Larry Kehres has been named one of five regional winners of the 2009 Division III AFCA Coach of the Year award. It is the 14th time Kehres has been so honored.

FEARLESS FORECAST

We must have forgotten about that old saying that says you can throw out the records when forecasting rivalry games. We were a middling 11-7 straight up to drop the yearly total below 80 percent to 112-32.

Against the spread? No other way to describe it other than we got crushed. We zigged while nearly everyone else zagged and had a 4-14 week ATS that sent the yearly total spiraling to 57-73-2. Well, at least the turkey, mashed potatoes and noodles were good.

TONIGHT’S GAME

No. 16 Oregon State at No. 7 Oregon: The Beavers have a slightly better defense while the Ducks have a slightly better offense. Autzen Stadium is usually money in the bank for Oregon, but Oregon State went home a winner on its last trip. So, we looked at common opponents – all eight of them – and came up with this final score … Oregon 43, Oregon State 38. (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

FRIDAY’S GAME

Ohio vs. Central Michigan: Temple’s turnaround season got most of the MAC publicity this season, but it will be the Bobcats and the Chippewas squaring off at Ford Field to decide the conference championship. CMU has dominated the all-time series with a lopsided 20-4-2 edge, and with an offense led by senior QB Dan LeFevour, the Chips should pad that advantage by one more victory … Central Michigan 28, Ohio 21. (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

SATURDAY’S GAMES

No. 5 Cincinnati at No. 15 Pittsburgh: Will Heinz Field turn out to be the Bearcats’ Waterloo? After playing footloose and fancy free for most of the season, suddenly there is a lot on UC’s plate. A win preserves a perfect season and the remote possibility of playing for the national championship. If that’s not enough pressure, how about the distraction of head coach Brian Kelly rumored to be headed to Notre Dame? We smell an Upset Special … Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 26. (12 noon ET, ABC)

No. 21 Houston at East Carolina: The Pirates are the defending Conference USA champions, but it’s difficult to see how they can repeat against the Cougars and quarterback Case Keenum. He needs only 78 more yards to reach 5,000 for the second year in a row … Houston 45, East Carolina 28. (12 noon ET, ESPN2)

No. 23 West Virginia at Rutgers: The Mountaineers have won 14 straight in this series, winning those games by an average of 26.6 points. The Scarlet Knights have won eight of their last 10, but one of those losses was to Syracuse. If the Knights can’t beat the Orange, how can they be expected to beat WVU? … West Virginia 31, Rutgers 17. (12 noon ET, ESPN)

Fresno State at Illinois: Extending the season past Thanksgiving was supposed to keep the Illini fresh for their bowl game. Instead, it has simply prolonged the agony of a dismal season. Perhaps the Fighting Zooksters could rise up for Senior Day, but don’t count on it … Fresno State 34, Illinois 31. (12:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

New Mexico State at No. 6 Boise State: If Ohio State can hang 45 on the Aggies, how many points do you think the Broncos can score? Probably as many as they want … Boise State 56, New Mexico State 0. (3 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Arizona at No. 18 USC: As tough as things have been in Trojanland this season, USC can still win 10 games with wins this week and in its bowl game. The first hurdle toward that goal should be made easier since the Wildcats will be without injured TB Nic Grigsby … USC 34, Arizona 24. (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 2 Alabama: The Crimson Tide’s chances hinge on the health of Heisman hopeful tailback Mark Ingram, who missed most of last week’s win over Auburn with a hip pointer. Those kinds of injuries are tough to overcome, especially for running backs, and how Ingram performs could make the difference … Florida 27, Alabama 21. (4 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 19 California at Washington: The Bears are still without star running back Jahvid Best, but sophomore Shane Vereen has been a more than capable fill-in. Vereen runs mostly out of the wildcat formation, and he will likely do a lot of damage against the Huskies, who rank 76th nationally and ninth in the Pac-10 against the run … Cal 35, Washington 24. (6:30 p.m. ET, FSN)

No. 3 Texas vs. No. 22 Nebraska: One final chance for Colt McCoy to prove why he deserves this year’s Heisman Trophy. If McCoy simply has his normal game against the Cornhuskers, who have the Big 12’s stingiest scoring defense, it should be a coronation for him and a momentum-builder for the Longhorns as they head to the national title game … Texas 34, Nebraska 20. (8 p.m. ET, ABC)

No. 10 Georgia Tech vs. Clemson: If South Carolina can gash the Tigers for 223 yards on the ground, doesn’t it make sense that the Yellow Jackets and their running game (No. 2 in the nation) can do as well or better? … Georgia Tech 34, Clemson 27. (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Wisconsin at Hawaii: Some teams have trouble adjusting to the swirling winds at Aloha Stadium. Not the Badgers. They have won three in a row in Honolulu by an average margin of 27.3 points and will probably just run Big Ten offensive player of the year John Clay about 40 times … Wisconsin 38, Hawaii 24. (11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Here are the spreads for the above games: Oregon State (+10) at Oregon; Ohio (+13) vs. Central Michigan; Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (+2); Houston (-2½) at East Carolina; West Virginia (+2) at Rutgers; Fresno State (+3) at Illinois; New Mexico State at Boise State (-44); Arizona at USC (-7); Florida (-5½) vs. Alabama; Cal (-7) at Washington; Texas (-13) vs. Nebraska; Georgia Tech (-1) vs. Clemson; Wisconsin (-11) at Hawaii.

2010 BCS Bowls projections

I know I wrote on this earlier, but that was based on what was happening then… and oddly, after a week or so, not too much has changed, but that will DEFINIATELY change this weekend. So let’s talk on this for a bit.

Now, for those that don’t quite understand all about the BCS, I am right there with ya, but we can at least talk on some theories. I am not saying I know it all, but I am a big fan of college football, so we are in the same boat.

Now, to begin, let’s remember that there are FIVE bowls in the BCS. One is the National Championship, which takes the top two teams in the nation by BCS scores, and leaves the other four to at large teams, with some exceptions. We will get to that in a moment.

What is important to also know is the ORDER of the bowls for 2010, because the order determines who picks first. The first order is always the National Championship, but after that it differs. This year, 2010, the order is Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Notice something missing? Rose Bowl? That’s because the Rose Bowl isn’t interested in the BCS to mix their “tradition” with the others, they want to keep their Pac-10 and Big 10 rival cemented. So they are not “in the mix”, although they really are.

So, if we were to look at who was going to the BCS, and the other major bowls, lets first determine, at this very moment, who the top 12 teams are…because that is important:

In order, they are: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State and Georgia Tech. Following them are LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. And for good measure, we throw in the next three, being Oregon, Miami and Houston.

From this list we can put together our theory about who will be going where. Now, even though we are using theory, we still have to make a slight assumption, one I will get to in a sec.

So let’s start first with the National Championship…who is going to the BCS Championship?

The natural assumption is to take the #1 and #2 teams, in this case being Florida and Alabama…but right off the bat this isn’t accurate. The problem is that both teams are from the SEC, and we all know that they must play each other in the SEC Championship… one team will lose, and fall out.

For the sake of argument let us assume that Florida wins, just the assumption that #1 beats #2. IF we go with that, then we can project Florida in the National Championship against the #3 team, Texas. Now, I know Texas still has to play in their Big 12 Championship just as Florida and Alabama must play in their conference championship but we are just going with the idea that those two SEC teams must eliminate one from the conversation. So the BCS Championship in theory would be Florida and Texas.

Now, after that, things get a little hairy.

Once the National Championship has been determined, a lot of clauses kick in, one being the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl gets to select their teams, and because they stick with their tradition, they will take the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions. But this can be misleading.

On the BCS rankings, they have Iowa as the best Big 10 team…but it is Ohio State that will be going to the Rose Bowl, which in theory knocks out the #10 team for the #11 team. This already creates some chaos because the idea in the BCS bowls was to get the top 10 teams in, and this has already been disrupted.

So Ohio State is in, bumping out Iowa. What about the Pac-10? Oregon finishes as the best team in the Pac-10, but USC is ranked at #9, while Oregon is ranked #13… Oh my.

So the Rose Bowl has, in theory, already screwed up the system, because two of the top 10 teams in the nation are snubbed initially for a BCS bowl. So let’s recap a bit:

BCS Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State vs. #13 Oregon.

Hmm, sounds odd already.

Now, after those two bowls, we can get into the order of selections. Remember, this year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. So the Orange Bowl gets to select who they want in their bowl in Florida.

Now, just as the Rose Bowl must take the champions of the Pac-10 and Big-10, there are other contracts that must be upheld. The Orange Bowl has a contract with the ACC, meaning they MUST take the ACC Champion unless they are in the National Championship. Since neither Florida or Texas is an ACC team, that means they must take whoever wins the ACC Championship…which at this moment would be either Georgia Tech or Clemson.

Now this is interesting because even though Georgia Tech is ranked #7, Clemson is not on that top 15 list. It would be very embarrassing if a team NOT in the top 15 goes to a BCS bowl. For sake of argument, let us assume that the higher ranked team would win, in this case, Georgia Tech (just like we did the SEC Championship with Florida and Alabama). If this was the case, then Georgia Tech would go to the Orange Bowl because that is the contract with the ACC. It would then leave the Orange Bowl to have the first selection of the remaining teams.

To me, that gives them one of four realistic choices: Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Once we get into any bowl outside of the National Championship, I think it comes do contracts and ticket sales. With that being the case, we also know that you stand a better chance most times in selling tickets if the teams are closer to the bowl. For that reason, I don’t think Boise State would go to the Orange Bowl…just too far to travel. The same could also be said for TCU to some degree. Would the Orange Bowl take Cincinnati…absolutely. How about Alabama? Absolutely! Either would be a great pick, but the charm of being undefeated might mean more dollars than a nearby SEC school. So I think the Orange Bowl might take a Georgia Tech/ Cincinnati matchup. That means you have a #5 vs. a #7…which isn’t that bad.

That leaves two bowls left, and the Fiesta Bowl has next shot.

With the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, and with the next two picks, there are a few things this bowl has to keep in mind. One, they have a contractual obligation to the Big 12 conference, and they have to look at location, just like the Orange Bowl. But one of the clauses kicks in here, in that IF a Big 12 team is in the National Championship, then the Fiesta Bowl is free to select any other team. And since Texas, a Big 12 team, is in the championship (as per our theory) that leaves the Fiesta Bowl to take two teams.

So in theory, they could take the two highest ranked teams left, which would be TCU, a one loss Alabama, or Boise State. Now immediately you might think that pitting TCU and Boise State would be simplicity, but I beg to differ. Granted this would be a good game, but we saw that game last year. To sell tickets, the bowl may need to give the fans a unique game, not one just held a year ago. Heck, some people got tired of the USC/Ohio State games, so it makes some sense.

I think TCU has the inside track for the Fiesta Bowl, and it would be against either Boise State or Alabama. For sake of not getting a repeat, I think that the Fiesta Bowl would entertain the TCU/Alabama game because it puts a non BCS against a top ranked BCS school…but the temptation to have two undefeated teams could sway them to go with TCU/Boise State. Personally, I think they will drop Boise State for Alabama.

So let’s recap again:

BCS National Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas…
(theory being if Alabama loses and Texas wins, Texas will be #2)

Orange Bowl ACC Champion Georgia Tech (7) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East Champs)
(theory being if GA Tech beats Clemson and Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh)

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State (Big 10 Champs) vs. #13 Oregon (Pac 10 Champs)

Fiesta Bowl #4 TCU (Mountain West Champs) vs. Alabama (SEC Runner up)

That brings us to the final BCS Bowl, the Sugar Bowl. They get the last two picks, but they have a clause too. They must, by contract, take the SEC Champion, but since Florida is the SEC Champs and in the BCS Championships, they are free to take two teams, just like the Fiesta Bowl.

If things go like we discussed, then the highest ranked team still available would be Boise State. For sake of having an undefeated team, the Sugar Bowl will take them… but there may be a question to how well Boise State travels. I mean, New Orleans isn’t a hop, skip and jump away. But still, it is a logical choice of the remaining teams.

So who will the Boise State Broncos play?

There are still several choices based on the remaining teams on that top 15 ranking, but right off the bat, we can eliminate Houston. Just not strong enough to make a good matchup with Boise State. This leaves LSU, USC, Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami.

The logical choice is by far LSU, but this brings in another clause…one that prevents LSU from playing in New Orleans. By rule, no conference can put in more than two teams out of their own conference in the BCS Bowls. Remember that LSU is a SEC school…so are Florida and Alabama. This means that in theory, LSU would not, COULD NOT, play in the Sugar Bowl.

That leaves USC, which is probably too far to travel. Then you may have to look at Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami. If we can assume that Cincinnati is undefeated, then it also means they beat Pittsburgh, which knocks them out of the picture. So this leaves Boise State to play either Iowa or Miami…which would sell more tickets?

Iowa is ranked #10, and Miami currently #14, so that might be the choice, but who travels better? Better traveling means more ticket sales. I think the Big 10 does well in traveling, after all, if they can get to Pasadena, they can surely get to New Orleans. I think Iowa plays Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.

So there you have it, the 10 teams selected in the BCS bowls. Of the top 10 teams, LSU and USC will miss out, and will play in lesser bowls. We shall see. Remember, all this is theory at the moment, just to give you an idea of how this might work out. The truth comes this weekend when many of these teams play their conference championships and final regular season games…

This AJ-C piece on how Georgia Tech’s loss to the Dawgs has affected some of Tech’s current commitments warms the cockles of my withered middle-aged heart.

Denzel McCoy has already learned how to work the excuse game.

“…There were some penalties that weren’t called, too. That had an effect also.”

SEC refs, baby!  They’ll cheat you every time, son.

Paul Johnson’s “Georgia hasn’t done anything since 1980″ message doesn’t seem to be resonating with his troops.

“I talked to a couple of them I know,” McCoy said. “But you could just tell from their expressions they were upset. It was a hard loss, especially for the seniors because they’re not going to get a chance to play Georgia again. A lot of guys are down about it.”

Said Bostic: “Nobody was in the mood to talk. You could see it on everybody’s faces. Everybody was down and out.”

Get used to it, fellas.  This is Georgia Tech football you’re talking about, after all.

I just heard the crew on 790 the Zone discussing Paul Johnson’s reaction to questions about his play calling on the last series of the game as well as his approach to the game during the prior week.

Evidently, somebody’s a wee bit sensitive to criticism, because CPJ responded by asking (and I’m probably paraphrasing here) “what has Georgia done since 1980?” and advising any Tech fans discouraged by mockery to smack the other party in the face.

I’m glad the loss wasn’t that important to them.

********************************************************************

UPDATE: The AJ-C has the exact language, if you’re interested.

In case you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m not quite ready to move on.  I mean, faced with a choice of continuing to enjoy things like the absurd rationalizing that’s totally absorbed the Tech message boards (made even better in comparison with the equally absurd pre-game bravado) as opposed to indulging in the is-Martinez-gonna-go rumor mongering/speculation (hey, how did that whole he’s- going-to-resign/be fired-Sunday thing work out?), well… it’s not much of a choice for me.

So here are a few more nuggets worth sharing while there’s still a glow from the game:

First off, I love this quote from Mark Richt.

–  A caller said Tech coach Paul Johnson downplayed the importance of the Georgia game early last week and asked Richt, who is 8-1 vs. Tech, his thoughts on the  magnitude of the rivalry.

“All I can tell you is our boys and our coaches don’t need a whole lot of motivation, I guess, to get fired up about this game,” Richt said.  “And I’m not going to sit here and deny that what happened a year ago [helped] fuel it. It did; there is no question that it did. Them tearing up our hedges and doing some of the things that they were doing after the game at our expense didn’t sit too well with us. And we wanted to do something about it, and we want to continue to do something about it in years to come. And I’ll say this: I’ve always had a respect, a very healthy respect, for Georgia Tech and their football program, and we will continue to have that respect because they are an outstanding team and they do a great job over there. But it’s very, very big to us.”

Great sentiment, Coach.  Almost, dare I say it, Corch Meyer-ish.  Now, how can we bottle that sucker and take it to Jacksonville next year?

Also, Richt really didn’t like the Gator Powerade bath he got from Bryan Evans.

And if you’re ever feeling down, feel free to dial this clip up at the 2:40 mark.  It’ll cheer you right up.

Thanks, Bebe.

Those clips remind me – if you haven’t seen the ABC/ESPN broadcast (I’ve watched it twice now), you really should.  I knock the WWL a fair amount, but I’ve got to give the Disney folks credit for a good job Saturday night.  In stark contrast to what we were subjected to in the Auburn and Kentucky games, the broadcast team was involved and attentive to the play on the field, excited at the right times without coming across as biased (Sean McDonough’s call of King’s 75-yard run is great) and the camera work was excellent.

No, it wasn’t the same as being there, but the coverage of the last three minutes of the game starting when Tech got the ball back one last time was as good as I’ve seen this season.  The highlights in particular:  Rennie Curran’s guided-missile tackle of Roddy Jones on Tech’s last running play of the game;  Reshad Jones’ coverage on the second and third down incomplete pass plays; Thomas’ reaction upon dropping the fourth down pass;  Mark Richt’s passion in his post-game remarks.  Well done, people.

Oh, and speaking of Caleb King’s touchdown run, if you didn’t get to hear Wes Durham’s call of it on the Georgia Tech radio broadcast, that’s too bad.  Durham, who specializes in making the routine two-yard Tech gain sound like Larry Munson calling “Run, Lindsay!, run” (ed. - there you go, Malcolm!), sounds like he falls asleep during King’s jaunt downfield.  It’s of a piece with the rapidity to which Tech resorts in taking a losing result off of the BDS scoreboard three seconds after the game ends.  When the going gets sorry, that just how the Jackets roll.

The Macon Telegraph’s Josh Weiss has some great shots of the game up at his site.  Here are a couple of choice examples:

Reshad Jones looks like he's being covered by Anthony Allen.

No matter where he's at, Rennie Curran gets his man.

Josh’s post game shots are particularly enjoyable.   Check it all out.

Read the arguments from Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer about which teams or conferences won the Thanksgiving football feast over the long weekend.

Every rabid college football fan knows how important recruiting is. Sure, some college football writers like Sports Illustrated writer Stewart Mandel have indelicate names for these rabid fans, but I call them smart. These types of fans are tuned in; they understand not just how to win game to game but how to build a sustainable program. True fans believe in program building. Fair weather fans worry about games or select seasons. It’s the difference between rooting for a football team and rooting for a football program.

Every rabid college football fan knows that the SEC wiped the floor with the ACC over the Thanksgiving holiday, further complicating the ACC’s attempt to climb back to national relevance with powerhouse recruiting. Most importantly, all of the recruits that were visiting those home SEC games, those intrastate rivalry games, would be fools to choose the ACC school.

The ACC had three opportunities over the weekend to assert itself as a conference that rivaled the talent level and energy of the SEC, and all were extremely important within each state. At each of these games the cream of the recruiting crop in each state was in attendance and observed an SEC whooping.

The first game took place in South Carolina where a 6-5 South Carolina team was hosting an 8-3 Clemson team that already clinched its division and has an opportunity to take a run at a BCS. Clemson had the record, the momentum, and the star in running back CJ Spiller. But the entire team laid a massive egg in a 34-17 loss. The inability to stop the run (223 yards allowed on the ground) and the inability run the ball (net 48 rushing yards) taught an important lesson to lineman and skill player recruits in attendance – if the game is won in the trenches, one team can win and one team cannot. South Carolina’s finest no doubt took note. A seemingly down and out SEC team with a bad record beat an ACC division winner.

Virtually a carbon copy of the South Carolina game emerged in Georgia. The seventh ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets saw senior night ruined at the oldest stadium in college football in the famed rivalry, “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.” Georgia racked up a 30-24 victory and gave Tech a taste of its own medicine, limiting the Jackets to just over 200 yards on the ground – well below the team’s average – and amassed 339 against the Jackets’ defense. Georgia is one of the premier recruiting states for high school football with two established and elite programs in the state. As good of a coach and a recruiter as Tech head coach Paul Johnson is, it is a tough sell sitting in the homes of some of the elites in Georgia when a clearly inferior Georgia team dominated a supposedly superior Tech team.

Last, in a game I actually believed would be good, Florida dismantled a bad Florida State team. Yet another talent-rich recruiting state – probably the best of the three – saw the SEC team in the rivalry completely destroy the ACC counterpart, this time 37-10. In keeping with the running theme, Florida ran for 311 yards to FSU’s 83.

In all three cases the SEC had a more dominant offensive and defensive line than the ACC did. For the ACC to catch up with the SEC in terms of talent, it has to show improvement between the hash marks, not just at the skill positions. The ACC showed it still has a long, long way to go.

It does not matter that the ACC is better than the Big East, or that some teams in the ACC are better than others as we learned last weekend. There are few weekends – few opportunities – each football season for the ACC to prove to the SEC and the world that it is equal or better than the SEC, and begin balancing out the one-sided recruiting contest. The ACC had a massive opportunity in important, in-state chief rivalry games, and the entire conference blew it. Know the lesson that was taught now, see the results of the lesson on the first Tuesday in February.

One of the keys that most people pointed to for Georgia to have a chance against Georgia Tech was time of possession.  Georgia wound up achieving its goal of holding Tech under its season average.  Interestingly, while there was certainly a measurable effect on the number of plays the Jackets ran, the stats show that there was more to the end result than that.

Going into the game, Georgia Tech was averaging ten more plays on offense (69.36) than it was allowing on defense (59.36).  Georgia actually allowed roughly four more plays per game on defense (64.72) in its first eleven games than it ran on offense (60.64).  Tech wound up running six more plays Saturday night (64) than did Georgia (58).  As you can see, Georgia really didn’t do more than narrow the margins; the seasonal trends still played out.

What else made the difference, then?  Two things:  turnover margin and yards per play.  For only the second time all year, Georgia won the turnover battle.  The Dawgs also enjoyed a significant edge in yards per play, gaining 7.2 ypp to Tech’s 5.3 ypp.  And if you look at the Jackets’ seasonal stats, all of that mattered.

The Tech defense yielded similar or worse ypp numbers in four other games this year, all of them wins:  7. 2 against Mississippi State; 8.2 against FSU; 7.4 against Virginia Tech; and 7.5 against Vanderbilt.  Tech didn’t have an advantage in ypp in any of those games.  But Tech was +4 in turnover margin against MSU and had significant possession advantages against Virginia Tech (70-45) and Vanderbilt (82-53).  The FSU game was the (slight) puzzler, statistically speaking, as the Seminoles had one more possession on offense than Georgia Tech, went +1 in turnover margin and were even on ypp.  (FSU did have 65 yards in penalties compared to Tech’s 9, though.)

What all these numbers suggest is that Mike Bobo called a great game.  (Georgia’s ypp number against Tech was 1.3 ypp above its season average going into the game.)  Georgia needed to control the game throughout and Bobo made sure that happened.   As I said in the wake of the Auburn game, if you’re a good offensive coordinator, taking what the other guy gives you until he stops it is where you start.  Tech never had an answer for the Georgia running game and Bobo resisted any urge he might have had to get cute with the playcalling.  Tech had nothing else to counter with.  And that, in the end, was your ball game.

Sometimes I wonder if Ohio State football fans haven’t been brainwashed by the very propaganda they so often criticize.

The Buckeyes were in the process Nov. 21 of putting the finishing touches on a 21-10 victory at Michigan, another 10-win season and their third outright Big Ten championship in the last four years and you might have thought it was the Wolverines who were winning for the eighth time in the last nine years.

All I heard was how boring it had become to watch the Buckeyes grind out another victory in the series, how dull it was to watch the latest chapter of Tresselball wring any modicum of excitement from another OSU game.

There was actually a post on our own BuckeyeSports.com message board during the second half that read, “This is why I hate Jim Tressel. Run, run, run, run, run. This game is so boring. (Michigan) is terrible. We should be ahead by at least 35 points right now.”

Hate Jim Tressel? Really? If that is really the opinion of some Ohio State fans, then I have heard enough to know that I have heard too much.

First of all, Tressel certainly doesn’t need me to defend his coaching expertise. The bottom line speaks for itself, and that bottom line now shows six Big Ten championships in nine years, five straight seasons of 10 wins or more and more BCS bowl appearances than any other coach you care to mention.

Secondly, if you watched the Buckeyes dispatch the Wolverines on Nov. 21 and believe what you were watching was old-fashioned Tresselball, I suggest either a trip to the optometrist or less attention paid to what the blabbering bobbleheads from Bristol have to say.

National talking heads will look at 67 yards for Ohio State through the air and immediately pronounce another lackluster game in the outdated, run-oriented Big Ten and start puffing their chests about how there is no way the Buckeyes can beat any of the pass-happy teams they are likely to meet in the Rose Bowl.

None of them will have actually watched the OSU-Michigan game, of course. (Same problem with those who continue to insist the national title game against LSU was a blowout. It was not, but I digress.) There were two plays in this year’s edition of The Game that could have bloated the Buckeyes’ passing stats and turned an 11-point win into something much more substantial.

The first came with 5:12 to go in the second quarter with Ohio State holding a 14-3 lead. Michigan had just turned the ball over on the first of quarterback Tate Forcier’s four interceptions, and Tressel went for Rich Rodriguez’s jugular. On first down, DeVier Posey easily beat his defender on a fly pattern but Terrelle Pryor overthrew his receiver.

The second occurred on a similar play early in the fourth quarter with the Buckeyes protecting a 21-10 lead. Once again Posey easily outdistanced his coverage, but once again Pryor’s pass was too far for his intended receiver.

Only two plays, both of which were misfires, but the fact remains they were called by Tressel and had they been successful, the Buckeyes would have had at least two more touchdowns and at least 125 more yards through the air.

I attached the words “at least” to the preceding sentence because converting those two plays – especially the first one – could have completely altered the remainder of the game.

Had Pryor been able to connect with Posey on that second-quarter bomb, it would have given Ohio State a 21-3 advantage and would likely have caused a cave-in on the Michigan sideline. Then, the final score would probably have been something in the four- or five-touchdown range.

The long pass attempts to Posey weren’t the only non-Tresselball calls in the game. What about the misdirection counter plays? The screen pass in the red zone? Both went for touchdowns, yet all anyone seemed to want to talk about was the fact the Buckeyes ran the ball 51 times for 251 yards. Funny – when they ran it 43 times for 242 yards in last year’s 42-7 blowout, I don’t remember anyone bringing up Tresselball.

There is little doubt Tressel took his foot off the accelerator in the fourth quarter this year, but give the guy a little credit. He knew Michigan would have to begin to take some chances late and that freshman Forcier would have to try to force the issue. Not coincidentally, the Buckeyes chalked up three of their four interceptions in the final period.

Every head coach’s first commandment is to win the surest way, and Tressel’s record in Big Ten games is now 59-13 because he knows the surest way to victory. There is no doubt there are other coaches who are much flashier, but are their teams built for year-in, year-out success?

For example, how did Bob Stoops do at Oklahoma this season? How about Mike Leach at Texas Tech? June Jones at SMU or Bobby Petrino at Arkansas? Each of those supposed offensive gurus had winning seasons – barely – and combined for exactly zero championships.

High-octane attacks and footballs flying through the air grab the headlines. Always have and always will. But they don’t always translate into trophies.

Winning is, has been and always will be the bottom line and that goes double for Ohio State against Michigan. Beating the Wolverines never becomes boring and it never gets old.

DEATH IN THE FAMILY

I met Stefanie Spielman only once and that was several years ago. She was in a northern Columbus supermarket, and her mind was occupied with something important – trying to keep one of her small children from knocking off a huge display of canned green beans.

She knew me as nothing more than another in the long line of fans of her husband, but she couldn’t have been more pleasant or down-to-earth – a typical suburban mom who looked like the biggest thing weighing on her mind was the price of eggs.

I had no idea then just how much grit and determination Stefanie had going for her. Not long after our brief encounter, she was diagnosed with breast cancer, a disease she fought as hard as she could for 12 long years until she had no fight left.

When she died Nov. 19 at the age of 42, I remembered her from that day we met in that supermarket. I also remembered when her husband announced he was giving up professional football for a year to stay home and help her fight the disease.

If you know anything about Chris Spielman, you know that he would sooner give up his right arm than voluntarily miss a football game. He was a three-time All-American at Ohio State and a four-time Pro Bowler with the Detroit Lions. He once made a tackle for the Buckeyes without a helmet, and often said that he would have played professional football for free.

As it turned out, as great as Spielman was as a football player, he is an even better man.

Last month, Spielman talked with Canton Repository writer Todd Porter, and while he wouldn’t discuss his wife’s prognosis, he offered a glimpse into how their lives had changed over the years.

“I’m so grateful for the 25 years we’ve known each other and the 20 years we’ve been married,” Spielman said. “I wouldn’t change a thing. The tough parts? That’s life. Life is going through good things and bad things.

“I think we’ve been given certain assignments in life. I like to think we’ve done the best we could for (cancer survivors) in service as opposed to shutting down. Hopefully, we’ve been able to make a difference with the monies raised and the people we met and talked to … This is an honorable and humbling journey we’ve been on. It’s something that is way bigger than being a football guy.”

Those outside the Buckeye Nation will likely continue to look at Spielman as just “a football guy.” Those of us in and around Columbus know better.

During this Thanksgiving holiday season, we give thanks for people like Chris and Stefanie Spielman, people who enrich our lives just by living their own.

THIS WEEK IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY

** Twenty-seven years ago today, the pupil finally beat the teacher and a legend coached his final regular-season game. On Nov. 27, 1982, Auburn running back Bo Jackson rushed for 114 yards and led the Tigers to a 23-22 victory over Alabama. It was the final regular-season game for Alabama head coach Paul “Bear” Bryant, who finished a 38-year career with 323 victories. The game also marked a milestone for Auburn head coach Pat Dye. He became the first former Bryant assistant to beat the legendary coach in 30 attempts since 1970.

** Also occurring during this week in college football history: On Nov. 24, 1938, Texas scored a 7-6 upset win over Texas A&M, allowing the Longhorns to avoid a winless season; on Nov. 28, 1942, unranked Holy Cross scored a 55-12 rout of No. 1 Boston College, the most lopsided loss ever for a top-ranked team; on Nov. 28, 1981, No. 11 Penn State trounced No. 1 Pittsburgh by a 48-14 score, the largest winning margin in NCAA history for a ranked team over a No. 1 team; and on Nov. 29, 1935, Chicago halfback Jay Berwanger was named the winner of the inaugural Downtown Athletic Club Trophy as the outstanding college football player of the year. The following year, the award would be renamed the Heisman Trophy.

** The Ohio State football program also marks an anniversary this week. On Nov. 25, 1916, the Buckeyes took a 23-3 victory over Northwestern to cap a 7-0 season and earn the school’s first Big Ten championship. It was the first of a league-record 18 (and counting) outright championships and 34 overall conference titles for the Buckeyes.

AROUND THE COUNTRY

** A nightmare scenario for the BCS is rapidly getting closer as six undefeated teams remain in Division I-A. Alabama, Boise State, Cincinnati, Florida, Texas and TCU are hanging around with unblemished records, each retaining their own claim for the national title. If only there was a way of determining the champion on the field. A playoff perhaps?

** We know at least one of the aforementioned teams will have a defeat on its ledger since Florida and Alabama will face one another in the SEC championship game, but the loser is still virtually assured of a BCS at-large berth. With automatic conference tie-ins further limiting the field, there is probably no way Boise State and TCU both get BCS bids – and that would be a travesty.

** Nike’s so-called Pro Combat uniforms were 1-1 last weekend. Ohio State wore them in its 21-10 victory over Michigan while Oklahoma donned the new duds and received a 41-13 drubbing from Texas Tech.

** In his first two seasons at Michigan, Rich Rodriguez has lost 13 Big Ten games. It took Bo Schembechler 13 seasons to lost 13 league games.

** Indiana may not be going to a bowl game this season, but it doesn’t look like head coach Bill Lynch is going anywhere. The bottom line for any coach in trouble is wins and losses, but attendance is certainly 1A on that list and the Hoosiers averaged better than 40,000 fans in Memorial Stadium this season. That is the first time the team has done that well at the gate in 17 years.

** It should be a very merry Christmas this year in the household of Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney household. Because the Tigers have advanced to the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, an incentive clause in Swinney’s contract kicks his salary from $800,000 to around $1.8 million next season.

** For those of you who believe Florida head coach Urban Meyer when he says he is not interested in the Notre Dame job should it become available, remember this: Once upon a time, Thad Matta said he was not interested in leaving Xavier for Ohio State.

** During last week’s 63-20 win over New Mexico State, Nevada running back Luke Lippincott ran for 162 yards and the Wolf Pack became the first team in NCAA history to have three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season. Lippincott (1,028 yards) joins Vai Taua (1,185) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (1,129) on the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense. Nevada has averaged 445.6 yards on the ground over its last eight games – topping 500 yards three times – and the Wolf Pack averages 373.2 for the season.

** I received my Heisman Trophy voting instructions last week. (We used to have the option of voting by paper ballot or online; now we can only vote online.) My top three has been pretty unwavering over the past several weeks: 1. Texas QB Colt McCoy; 2. Alabama RB Mark Ingram; 3. Boise State QB Kellen Moore. I know there is a lot of sentiment for Florida QB Tim Tebow, but I don’t think he has had a season that outshines my top three. I guarantee you I will not vote until after the conference championship games, giving me one last chance to watch McCoy, Ingram and Tebow.

** You probably know Florida still has the nation’s longest current win streak at 21 games. You may not know Western Kentucky has the longest losing streak at the I-A level. The Hilltoppers have lost 18 straight, and that has cost head coach David Elson his job. WKU has already hired Stanford assistant Willie Taggart as Elson’s replacement. Taggart is completing his third season on Jim Harbaugh’s staff at Stanford, but he played and coached at Western Kentucky for more than a decade before that.

** Congratulations to Tom Thompson, the 61-year-old walk-on kicker at Division III Austin College in Texas. Thompson converted a PAT for the Kangaroos last weekend in a 41-10 loss to instate rival Trinity, and became the oldest person ever to play in a college football game.

FEARLESS FORECAST

Another great week, including one of two Upset Specials, led to a 16-3 record with the straight-up forecast. The yearly SU total is now 101-25, good enough for Jim Tressel-like winning percentage of .802.

Against the spread, we finally had a winning week at 11-7 but we’re still Rich Rodriguez-like for the season at 53-59-2. Here are the games we like this week.

TODAY’S GAMES

Illinois at No. 5 Cincinnati: Ron Zook scheduled two games for his Fighting Illini after Thanksgiving to make sure they wouldn’t go stale between the end of the regular season and the bowl game. Of course, for that strategy to mean anything you first have to get to a bowl game … Cincinnati 45, Illinois 24. (12 noon ET, ABC)

No. 2 Alabama at Auburn: The Tigers have six of the last seven Iron Bowls, and Auburn has unheralded RB Ben Tate (1,209 yards, 8 TDs). But the Tide counters with Heisman hopeful Mark Ingram (1,399 yards, 12 TDs) and a much better defense … Alabama 27, Auburn 10. (2:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 9 Pittsburgh at West Virginia: With the one-two punch of QB Bill Stull (2,115 yards, 18 TDs) and RB Dion Lewis (1,291 yards, 13 TDs), the Panthers just have too much offense for the Mountaineers … Pittsburgh 27, West Virginia 17. (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Nevada at No. 6 Boise State: If anyone is going to derail the Broncos, it could be the Wolf Pack. They have won eight straight and averaged 55.6 points over their last five games, thanks mostly to the nation’s No. 1 running attack. Boise counters with a quick-strike attack that features the best scoring offense in the country. If you like offense, stay up late and enjoy the fireworks … Boise State 49, Nevada 45. (10 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

SATURDAY’S GAMES

No. 24 North Carolina at North Carolina State: The Wolfpack scored a 41-10 blowout win last season, but UNC has shored up its defense. Also, the Tar Heels are plus-5 in turnover margin while the Pack is minus-13 … North Carolina 28, N.C. State 17. (12 noon ET, ESPN2)

No. 18 Clemson at South Carolina: The Tigers hold a 65-37-4 advantage in the all-time series, including victories in the last two games, six of the last seven and 10 of the last 12. Sounds like a trend … Clemson 31, South Carolina 17.  (12 noon ET, ESPN)

No. 25 Mississippi at Mississippi State: Why is this rivalry known as the Egg Bowl? Because the large object atop the trophy that goes to the winner more resembles a golden egg than a football. The Rebels will have the inside track on the SEC’s berth in the Capital One Bowl with a win … Mississippi 23, Mississippi State 14. (12:20 p.m. ET, SEC Network/ESPN GamePlan)

No. 12 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: The Cowboys are hopeful of snapping a six-year losing streak to the injury-riddled Sooners. But OU won’t give up easily, especially protecting a 29-game home win streak on Senior Day. Regardless of what the oddsmakers say, this is an Upset Special … Oklahoma 27, Oklahoma State 23. (12:30 p.m. ET, FSN)

New Mexico at No. 4 TCU: Congratulations to the Lobos for avoiding a winless season with last week’s 29-27 win over Colorado State. Their reward? A trip to Fort Worth to play what many regard as the best team in the country this year … TCU 56, New Mexico 7. (1 p.m. ET, The Mtn.)

Florida State at No. 1 Florida: This could be the final regular-season game for the respective head coaches at these schools. Bobby Bowden may ride off into forced retirement while Notre Dame could make Urban Meyer an offer he can’t refuse … Florida 37, Florida State 20. (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 14 Virginia Tech at Virginia: One of the best freshmen in the country resides in the Hokies’ backfield, and Ryan Williams (1,355 yards, 15 TDs) should get plenty of chances to pad his numbers against a porous Cavaliers’ defense … Virginia Tech 31, Virginia 13. (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

No. 17 Miami (Fla.) at South Florida: You can check out two of the nation’s best young quarterbacks in Miami sophomore Jacory Harris (3,003 yards, 21 TDs) and USF freshman B.J. Daniels (2,200 all-purpose yards, 17 TDs). Mistakes will likely determine the winner, and the Bulls have a slight edge in defense. Upset Special No. 2 … South Florida 20, Miami 17. (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC Regional/ESPN GamePlan)

No. 21 Utah at No. 19 BYU: Senior QB Max Hall has had a solid career for the Cougars, but he has never played well against the Utes. That includes a career-high five interceptions during last year’s 48-24 loss, and doesn’t bode well in a series that Utah has dominated of late. Upset Special No. 3 … Utah 37, BYU 24. (5 p.m. ET, The Mtn.)

Arkansas at No. 15 LSU: An interesting matchup between two former Michigan Men. Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett and LSU head coach Les Miles. Of course, Miles could be headed back to Ann Arbor whenever the Wolverines want to pull the plug on the Rich Rodriguez experiment, and right about now the Tigers would probably make that deal. But we digress … LSU 30, Arkansas 24. (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Georgia at No. 7 Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets beat the Bulldogs last year for the first time since 2000 and now try for their first home win in the series since 1999. Since no one else has been able to shut down Tech’s triple-option attack, it’s doubtful UGA can, either … Georgia Tech 33, Georgia 24. (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)

Rice at No. 23 Houston: The over/under number for yardage by Cougars quarterback Case Keenum (4,599 yards, 36 TDs) ought to be around 500 since the Owls rank 107th nationally in pass defense … Houston 55, Rice 20. (8 p.m. ET, CSS)

Notre Dame at Stanford: Do you think Jim Harbaugh would like anything better than to beat Notre Dame and send Charlie Weis packing? … Stanford 45, Notre Dame 31. (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)

UCLA at No. 20 USC: We’ll admit it. It’s been kind of fun to watch Pete Carroll have that deer-in-the-headlights look while his team was being eviscerated by Oregon and Stanford. Back to reality this week … USC 24, UCLA 17. (10 p.m. ET, FSN)

Here are the spreads for the above games: Illinois at Cincinnati (-20½); Alabama (-10) at Auburn; Pitt (PK) at West Virginia (PK); Nevada (+14) at Boise State; North Carolina (-5½) at N.C. State; Clemson (-3) at South Carolina; Mississippi (-7½) at Mississippi State; Oklahoma State (+10) at Oklahoma; New Mexico at TCU (-44); Florida State (+24½) at Florida; Virginia Tech (-15) at Virginia; Miami-FL at South Florida (+5½); Utah (+8) at BYU; Arkansas at LSU (-3½); Georgia at Georgia Tech (-7½); Rice at Houston (-24); Notre Dame at Stanford (-10); UCLA (+13½)  at USC.

A lot is being made of the fact that Tech is at home this week, coming off a bye week during which the Jackets have had time to get rested and ready for the big rivalry game.  Yeah, well, how did that work out last year?

Just sayin’.

On the other hand, I admit that the idea of Josh Nesbitt finding Demaryius Thomas in single coverage with Bryan Evans leaves me a trifle glum, going by this.  Although you’d have to say that, based on the UK game, at least Evans knows the value of a timely pass interference penalty.

“Hopefully” being the operative word there.

This is how bad it’s gotten this year – Paul Johnson patronizes the Georgia program and you can’t really argue with him for doing so.

It’s time to man up, gentlemen.

I’m not sure I’ve got any better way of coping with how depressing the week leading up to Saturday night’s game against Tech is going to be other than indulging in gallows humor.

So in that spirit, let me start by getting your hopes up with this:  Georgia Tech is ranked 45th nationally in kickoff return yardage, a full nineteen slots lower than Kentucky.   Look for better coverage on squib kicks this week as a result.

2010 Orange Bowl

A quick blog about this year’s Orange Bowl, because it might have some interesting bits about it.

This year, or season if you will, the Orange Bowl has the top spot of the BCS bowls, meaning they get to select first the teams they want to play in their bowl AFTER the BCS Championship is made. I want to take a moment to say how tasteless the ROSE BOWL is acting, where they continue to get what they want without working with the other 3 bowls. Jerks.

Anyway, to give you an idea of who could be playing in that Orange Bowl, consider first that the selection process begins AFTER the BCS is determined. Now we know at this moment Florida and Alabama both are 1 and 2, but we know that will change because they must play each other. (let’s not also forget they both had QUESTIONABLE calls to keep them undefeated…)

But for sake of argument, lets assume Alabama loses to Florida in the SEC Championship. If so then it is safe to assume Texas plays Florida in the BCS Championship, right. So how does that affect the Orange Bowl?

Once that game is set, the Orange Bowl gets to pick the two teams it would like in their bowl game. But because of the Rose Bowl, they can’t touch the best Pac-10 and Big 10, because they are obligated to the Rose bowl. This would take out Oregon and Ohio State…at this moment.

So now the Orange Bowl has its pick of everybody else, including Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State and Alabama. But here is a tricky part…they are contractually obligated to the ACC Champion…which at this moment could be Georgia Tech.

Now that is not a bad choice, since GA Tech is in the mix for the top 10, but the Orange Bowl would be losing some power by taking a #7 team when it can have a #4 vs. #5. So the Orange bowl has to find an opponent for Georgia Tech.

They would likely have some good options with TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State, or even Alabama. None of those schools are obligated anywhere else, so the Orange Bowl would love to have any of those. But I don’t see them picking Boise State, they are just too far out there to guarantee heavy ticket sales… and yes folks, it is about the money for these bowls. I wonder if TCU might be a stretch as well. To me, I think the Orange Bowl might try to snatch undefeated Cincinnati to make this a very good game. By doing that, they might actually do the Sugar and Fiesta bowls a favor, allowing the Fiesta to take EITHER Boise or TCU (not both, since they played last year).

So right now, it looks like the Orange Bowl could be Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati… if all holds out.

2010 Fiesta Bowl

It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:

If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.

The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.

Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.

This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.

We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.

So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.

The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.

Now since this is about the Fiesta bowl, we know they pick AFTER the Orange bowl…but there are some complications. The Fiesta bowl is normally obligated to take the Big 12 Champion…UNLESS that same team is in the National Championship. If that happens, then they are free to take anyone else. Since Texas is (in this example) in the BCS Title game, they can pick any other two teams (minding you that they can’t pick Oregon or Ohio State because of the Rose Bowl.

It is quite likely that the Orange Bowl will take Georgia Tech because they must take the ACC champs, and it might be quite desirable that they will also take Cincinnati, because they are undefeated and nearer to the site of the Orange Bowl (Florida) than TCU or Boise State. If such is the case, who then would the Fiesta Bowl take?

I believe the Fiesta would have a choice of three teams…TCU, Boise State and Alabama. Two are undefeated (TCU and BSU), but you have a quality team in Alabama, and you know they travel well. I could see the Fiesta Bowl taking Alabama, because I am not so sure they want to take a repeat of TCU/Boise State…after all they played last year.

So I think either TCU or Boise State would be out, but can you ignore a bowl with two undefeated teams? This puts the Fiesta Bowl in a tough spot. A TCU/Alabama game would be nice, but so would a Boise State/Alabama game. I think if all things being equal, I think TCU and Alabama would be their choice. Alabama played the tougher schedule and is indeed better with one loss than Boise State with none, and TCU has the tough schedule to prove they are better than Boise State.

So that’s who I see in the Fiesta at this moment, TCU and Alabama.

2010 Sugar Bowl

It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Sugar Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:

If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.

The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.

Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.

This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.

We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.

So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.

The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.

So this year the Sugar Bowl is the last of the BCS bowl games to select who they wish to play in their bowl. This in theory says they should pick the #9 and #10 teams on the BCS standings, right? Wrong. That’s not how it works.

If we take a guess at who may be going where, we can assume at least at the moment that Florida plays Texas in the BCS Championship. That takes care of the SEC and Big 12 Conferences.

We assume that the Rose Bowl will take Oregon and Ohio State, taking care of the Pac-10 and Big 10 Conferences.

We believe the Orange Bowl, since it has the first selections of the remaining three bowls, will take Georgia Tech because they are contracted to take the ACC Champs, and will likely take Cincinnati for a great matchup.

That would take care of the ACC and Big East. So technically, all the major conferences are satisfied. But the BCS must also give a spot to the best non-BSC school, in this case, TCU.

Because the Fiesta Bowl picks next, they are normally obligated to take a Big 12 school, but with Texas in the BCS Title game, they are no longer bound to that. We think the Fiesta Bowl will take TCU and likely Alabama, and pass up on Boise State because BSU and TCU played in a bowl last year.

If this is the case, then the last of the major bowls would be the Sugar Bowl. They are normally contracted to have the SEC Champions, but with Florida in the BCS, they are no longer bound to that. They could select anyone they want…which brings in Boise State.

Ideally the Sugar Bowl would love to have Alabama, because it is closer for them, and it brings the SEC familiarity to the bowl game. But if Fiesta takes Alabama, then the Sugar Bowl has to consider who it wants…and most likely it would be Boise State. The question is if the fans can travel from Idaho to Louisiana…it is a bit further than Arizona.

The Sugar Bowl could take Boise State and one other team…how about LSU? That would be a great game, to have Boise State and LSU, or maybe Boise State plays Pittsburgh? But the assumption here is that Boise State is the lock, as I believe they should be, but is it more tempting to have LSU play Pittsburgh? Can Boise State draw in the east? That would be pretty interesting.

But if I had to put money on it, I would think the Sugar Bowl would take Boise State and SEC friend LSU.

Is ESPN Pushing for Boise State?

You know, I am as much a fan of the underdog as anybody else, my college is from the Southern Conference, and we have been underdogs for quite some time. And I understand in college football how so many like to pull for teams like TCU and Boise State because the could “crash” the BCS…but I gotta tell ya, some of this is getting down right stupid.

Why does ESPN and the guys there seem to feel that it is so righteous for Boise State to be in a National Championship? Again, I am not against BSU, but so often we try to force a situation without taking a hard look at the things around it.

Let’s get this straight right now folks, and we can debate this until eternity… Boise State is NOT the best team in college football…undefeated or not. They are also NOT the second best either. They are very good but NOT the best. It seems like it is getting to the point where Boise State is asking everybody to pity them, so they can either force a playoffs or be considered for the National Championship. But there are a lot of glaring problems with that.

First off, their schedule.

I said months ago and I say again, if you want to BE a champion, play a schedule like one. BSU can’t help the WAC schedule, but they CAN help games like UC Davis and Miami Ohio….BSU knew they needed to play a tougher schedule than that, and they choose not to. That’s their fault. Consider folks, TCU right now has a strong upper hand over Boise State for the Non-BCS team in the big bowls. And rightly so.

IF Boise State had scheduled maybe Colorado or some Big 12 team instead of UC Davis, and maybe Minnesota or Illinois instead of Miami OH, this would seem a stronger schedule. It is that strength of schedule that is hurting them. And don’t tell me that a perfect record is a worth a title shot alone…does ANYBODY remember Ball State from last year? Weren’t they like 12-0…what happened to them?

I thought so.

Second, the media keeps talking about “BCS Busters”. Technically that term isn’t accurate. The NCAA came up with 5 bowls, one being the National Championship, the other 4 available to the best of the BCS conferences, and a guaranteed slot for one of the other conferences that performs well. This means that there is a slot for a team like TCU and/or Boise State…meaning you are not BUSTING in anything. You have permission to enter IF you qualify. This year, at this very moment, TCU qualifies…and so does Boise State.

So IF these teams have qualified, they are not “Busting” in anything. Last night ESPN had the WAC Commissioner during the Boise State/Utah State game to try to get him to plead his case for Boise State. Personally I saw no need for him to do that, in my opinion, Boise State is CLEARLY in, if they are the #6 team in the nation. They WILL get a BCS bowl, but why was the guys for ESPN trying to create a controversy that they MIGHT not get in. This is foolishness and ignorance created by ESPN to stir the pot.

The WAC Commissioner made a point that Boise State ought to be considered because they demonstrated that the fans can travel, as in the case to the Fiesta Bowl… now folks, that was in Arizona, right? Check your maps and see how far Boise State is from Arizona….

That isn’t really saying so much, is it?

The selling point here seemed to be that Boise State can travel anywhere…I disagree. Remember folks, these bowls want teams that travel VERY well, or teams closer to the bowl. For that reason, I just can’t see Boise State in any circumstances going to the Orange Bowl…if I was a member of the Orange Bowl committee, I am just not convinced that they can travel in large numbers from Boise to Florida. Besides, I also think they deserve a better game than against Georgia Tech, you’d like to pit BSU against another undefeated team, right?

As it stands right now, before the games start, we can fairly assume that the Florida/Alabama winner will play Texas in the National Championship. Let’s just assume it will be Florida for the sake of argument. That means the National Championship is set, leaving the other 4 bowls.

We know the Rose Bowl will punk out and get their traditional teams, in this case the Pac 10 vs. Big 10. At this moment it looks like Oregon/Ohio State. So to this point, you have your SEC, Big 12, Big 10 and Pac 10 satisfied.

The Orange Bowl has a contractual commitment to the ACC, so Georgia Tech goes there. That makes 5 slots filled. This leaves the last 5 slots to Cincinnati as the Big East Champs, (at this point in time), TCU, Boise State, Alabama and one other team.

If it goes as I think it can, I think the Sugar Bowl will take Alabama, because it is closer to home. The Fiesta Bowl COULD take TCU and Boise State…but this could be a problem because they played last year… a repeat might not sell as well. So it might be hip for the Fiesta Bowl to take Cincinnati and TCU, and hope that Cincinnati can travel to the desert.

This could make a Sugar Bowl matchup with Alabama and Boise State, which would be interesting, leaving one slot open for the Orange Bowl. This brings in two other teams, LSU and Pittsburgh. Either could work, but if Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati, then LSU could be the obvious choice, also being a little closer to Florida. After all the fans of LSU are familiar with Florida having played the Gators anyway….Pittsburgh could say the same about playing South Florida.

So in all this, not once has Boise State been excluded from the BCS Bowls. They are in at this moment, and squarely in. I think the Fiesta Bowl might not take them to play TCU because it is a show we have seen before, so Boise State COULD be snubbed from there to the Sugar Bowl…but I gotta tell ya, that sounds like a good bowl to me, an Alabama/Boise State game.

So all this yapping about ESPN trying to champion a cause…come on you guys, get off that. You don’t need to make a case for BSU, they are in the BCS. Stop creating the news, and just report it!

A little nibble here, a little nibble there…

• Mark Schlabach thinks Paul Johnson could be tempted away from Tech for the right situation and offer.  Color me a little surprised.
• This is the kind of stuff you get on a slow news day, I guess.
• The ‘Bama football team reviews The Blind Side.
• Tony Barnhart suggests a tweak to the BCS process.  Needless to say, I’m a little disappointed.
• Broadcast numbers for some of the key games last week were down from last year.  Not sure if that’s more support for the this-season-is-boring meme, or if the particular matchups just weren’t that attractive.
• Don’t speak ill of the GPOOE™’s roommate.
• You tell me which is the bigger head scratcher – that Kentucky fans would have Rich Brooks on the hot seat, or that anyone would seriously want Bill Curry’s opinion about the potential of the UK program.

Congrats to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Football team on clinching of the ACC Coastal Division! A 10-1 Season with 2 games left (UGA rivalry game and ACC Title Game for a chance to go to the FedEx Orange Bowl as the ACC Champs).

Funny how this football season has worked out in my eyes. I had high hopes for the NY Football Giants this year and right now they are tanking. On the other hand, I watched the Yellow Jackets win their first game by a small margin and lose to the Miami Hurricanes as a top 25 team and thought that they were overrated. Their Wishbone Option offense seemed like it relied too much on the run and that QB Josh Nesbitt couldn’t throw the ball. So it seemed like if opposing teams stopped our run game we had no chance. I’m glad I was wrong! Now featured in this week’s Sports Illustrated (11/19), I now have faith in Coach Paul Johnson’s offense. We were ranked #7 before yesterday’s impressive win and I think it is well deserved. We should maintain the same ranking as we are the best 1 loss team in the nation. I hope the success continues the next seasons! It looks like our basketball team has the potential to be pretty good this year too. It’s pretty rare that both of our programs are good in the same year. It’s always one or the other.

Go Yellow Jackets!

Lots of goodies to pick from today:

• You wonder how long David Hale has been sitting on this pun.  Nicely played, sir. [UPDATE: Hale isn't taking credit for the headline.]
• “I am the athletic director, I can go in.” That’s the kind of year it’s been at Michigan.
• Notre Dame hasn’t won a national championship in two decades.  It hasn’t won a BCS game – ever.  Yet only now is Stewart Mandel coming to grips with the reality that the program is no longer special.  Don’t they get cable in Montana?
• Then again, maybe no coach is up for the task in South Bend.
• Jeebus, haven’t we milked every drop imaginable from this story (h/t Team Speed Kills)?  Give it a rest already.
• Michael Elkon explains why the gap between Georgia Tech and Georgia this year isn’t as big as you think.
• “Breaking down the SEC race”?  Seriously?
• Casey Clausen’s failure to become an NFL draft pick scarred little Jimmy for life.  I bet he was haunted by that during the limousine ride to his announcement to attend Notre Dame.
• Kentrell Lockett on Coach O and the Peter Principle:  “Great guy, but he just wasn’t that head coach. He was a great D-line coach but he wasn’t that head coach.” That should make for a fun post-game howdy.
• In conference play, Vanderbilt scores a touchdown once every 128 plays.  Wow.

The old coach once said, “September is for pretenders; November is for contenders,” and he was never more right than this season.

Let a couple of the Big Ten teams go through the motions and extend their seasons into December. Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State know the real season ends Nov. 21, and each school enters the three-game November stretch drive with a chance at the Big Ten championship.

The Hawkeyes have the inside track, of course, courtesy of their 9-0 start, the best in program history. They may also be one of the most entertaining teams to watch – at least from afar. I’m not sure how much more the Iowa fans can take since four of their team’s victories have come after the Hawkeyes were trailing after three quarters.

Nevertheless, every coach’s preseason objective is to win all of his games, and Kirk Ferentz is three-quarters of the way to accomplishing that goal. His team finishes the season at home with Northwestern tomorrow, at Ohio State next week and back home against Minnesota on Nov. 21, and that would seem to be a manageable schedule. There are hurdles, however.

Before you dismiss the game against the Wildcats, a look at recent history would seem to indicate a potential land mine for Iowa.

Although the Hawkeyes hold a decisive 46-21-3 advantage in the overall series, Northwestern has won three of the last four meetings including two in a row at Kinnick Stadium. Additionally, head coach Pat Fitzgerald sports a 2-1 record head-to-head against Ferentz.

Should the Hawkeyes get past Northwestern, they would enter Ohio Stadium unbeaten and with their highest national ranking in many years. OSU fans can quote chapter and verse on their favorite team’s recent struggles against top-five competition, but the shoe may be on the other foot this time around. Iowa has often been a highflier before facing the Buckeyes only to fall to pieces in spectacular fashion.

The most memorable of those crash-and-burns came in 2006 when the Hawkeyes were undefeated and ranked No. 13 in the country. They hosted OSU in a nationally televised night game but were unceremoniously dumped in a 38-17 trip to the woodshed. That lashing sent Iowa spiraling into a tailspin from which they never recovered. The team lost seven of its last nine games that season.

Of course, the Hawkeyes have never had much success against the Buckeyes. They have only 14 wins and three ties against 44 losses since the teams began playing one another in 1922. Ohio State has padded its advantage by winning 10 of the last 11 games in the series and five out of six against Ferentz. What’s more, Iowa is winless in its last five trips to Columbus and hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium since a 16-9 squeaker in 1991.

If Iowa can somehow figure out a way to get over its Ohio State bugaboo, it could be in for smooth sailing to an undefeated regular season. Although the Hawkeyes have a losing record in their all-time series with Minnesota, they have beaten the Gophers seven of the last eight times overall and eight of the last nine times Goldy has visited Iowa City.

Meanwhile, Penn State and Ohio State will decide tomorrow afternoon who stays in the race and who drops out when they face one another in Happy Valley. After that, the Nittany Lions are home against Indiana next Saturday and they finish the season Nov. 21 at Michigan State.

Penn State and Ohio State have split 24 previous games right down the middle, but the Buckeyes have a slight edge in recent contests. Jim Tressel has beaten Joe Paterno in five of their eight meetings, and OSU has won two of its last three trips to Beaver Stadium.

You can probable count on the game being a close one. The winning margin has been seven points or less five times in the last eight games between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.

Should Penn State get past Ohio State, it will likely cruise to an 11-1 finish. The Nittany Lions have never lost to Indiana in 12 previous meetings, and they have taken four of their last five from Michigan State.

On paper, it is the Buckeyes and their backloaded schedule who have the toughest November road to navigate. Ohio State must play two of its final three games on the road, and it will face opponents over the final stretch that have a combined record of 22-5, good for an .815 winning percentage. Iowa’s final three opponents are a combined 17-10 (.660) while Penn State squares off against opposition that is 15-12 (.556).

We’ve already touched on the challenges OSU will face at Penn State and at home against Iowa. If the Buckeyes can run that gantlet, they would head for Ann Arbor with a lot on their minds.

They would be playing for an unprecedented sixth straight victory over the Wolverines and a fifth consecutive Big Ten championship, not to mention the team’s first trip to the Rose Bowl in 13 seasons and a probable date with Pac-10 front-runner Oregon.

Anyone who watched the Ducks systematically dismantle USC on Halloween night needs to be careful of wishing for a bowl matchup with Chip Kelly’s team. But I’m sure Tressel will worry about that when and if the time comes. The challenge now is to gear up for what should be an entertaining trifecta of games with championship implications.

After all, most coaches know September and October games merely position your team for a late-season run. And you should know Tressel has a lifetime 81-22 record in November and December – 57-18 at Youngstown State and 24-4 at Ohio State.

OSU-PENN STATE TIDBITS

** This marks the 24th overall meeting between Ohio State and Penn State. The series is split evenly with each team claiming 12 victories. The Nittany Lions have a 5-4 advantage in games played at Happy Valley, while the Buckeyes enjoy a 10-6 edge in games played since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993.

** Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel is 5-3 against Penn State. That includes a 2-2 record at State College, including a 37-17 victory in 2007.

** Penn State head coach Joe Paterno is 8-12 all-time against Ohio State. That includes a 5-4 record against the Buckeyes at State College.

** Both coaches are noted for getting their teams to peak at the right times. Tressel is 24-4 in November games at Ohio State (a .857 winning percentage) while Paterno is 112-33-2 (.768) during the month.

** Five of the last eight games in the series have been determined by seven points or less. However, there have been some notable blowouts over the years. Penn State rolled to a 63-14 win at Beaver Stadium in 1994, and Ohio State returned the favor six years later in Ohio Stadium with a 45-6 wipeout. The average margin of victory for the Buckeyes in their 12 wins is 15.3 points. When the Nittany Lions win, the average margin is 15.1.

** Several series trends would seem to favor Penn State. The higher ranked team has won 17 of the last 18 meetings and the home team has won 12 of the 16 games played since the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten.

** The game pits two of the nine winningest programs in college football since 2005. Ohio State ranks fifth with a 50-10 record over that span while Penn State is ninth at 48-12. Texas is the winningest program since ’05 with a 52-7 record.

** The game will be the first-ever regular season matchup between coaches who have combined for 600-plus career wins. Paterno (391) and Tressel (225) currently total 616 career victories. That breaks the previous record of 591 set last season when Florida State’s Bobby Bowden squared off against Frank Beamer of Virginia Tech. At that time, Bowden had 377 career victories and Beamer had 214.

** The Nittany Lions are ranked first or second in 20 of the 30 statistical categories the Big Ten compiles. They are first in 13 of those categories – pass efficiency and total offense; rushing, pass, total and scoring defense; total sacks and fewest sacks allowed; third-down conversions and third-down defense; fourth-down defense; red-zone defense; and PAT kicking efficiency.

** This week’s game will mark the 300th game in Beaver Stadium’s 50-year history, and the Nittany Lions usually do well in milestone home contests. They won their first game at the facility, a 20-0 victory over Boston University on Sept. 20, 1960, and have followed with wins in the stadium’s 100th, 150th, 200th and 250th games. The only blemish on that slate came in game No. 50 – a 24-7 loss to Syracuse in 1970.

** Speaking of milestone victories, last weekend’s 34-13 win over Northwestern gave Paterno his 144th victory as a member of the Big Ten. That pushed him past former Iowa head coach Hayden Fry and into fourth place on the conference’s all-time wins list. The four winningest coaches in Big Ten history are Woody Hayes of Ohio State (205, 1951-78), Amos Alonzo Stagg of Chicago (199, 1896-1932), Bo Schembechler of Michigan (194, 1969-89) and Fielding Yost of Michigan (165, 1901-23, ’25-26).

** Penn State is traditionally one of the least penalized teams in the nation and that is true again in 2009. The Nittany Lions are No. 4 nationally this week with only 36.7 penalty yards per game. In its last three games played against the Buckeyes, Penn State has incurred only five penalties for 29 yards. During the same three games, Ohio State was flagged 14 times for 135 yards. During last season’s 13-6 victory in Columbus, the Nittany Lions had no penalties.

** OSU is 128-104-12 all-time against ranked teams, including 39-41-7 on the road. Under Tressel, the Buckeyes are 34-13 overall and 12-6 on the road against ranked competition.

** Midway through his sophomore season, OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor is on pace to shatter the school’s all-time record for total offense. Pryor has already eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark and needs only 383 more to pass Rex Kern (4,158, 1968-70) and Cornelius Greene (4,414, 1972-75) and into 11th place on the career list. Art Schlichter (8,850, 1978-81) is the longtime school record-holder for career total offense.

** The Buckeyes have forced 24 turnovers this season, a total that ties them for second in the Big Ten. OSU forced 29 turnovers all of last year.

** Paterno has two coaches on his staff who have been with him more than 30 years. Offensive line coach Dick Anderson is in his 32nd year with Paterno while defensive coordinator Tom Bradley is in his 31st season with the Nittany Lions.

** One final note on last week’s game against New Mexico State. The Aggies were paid $850,000 to play the Buckeyes – about $13,710 for each of the 62 yards of total offense they gained.

** Kickoff for tomorrow’s game will be shortly after 3:30 p.m. Eastern. The game will be televised using the reverse mirror meaning viewers will be able to watch the game either on their local ABC station or ESPN2. Veteran play-by-play man Sean McDonough will call the game, former Penn State All-America defensive tackle Matt Millen will provide color analysis and Holly Rowe will be the sideline reporter.

** The game is also available on Sirius satellite radio channels 123 and 127 as well as XM radio channel 144.

** Next week’s Senior Day game against Iowa will kick off from Ohio Stadium at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. That game will also be televised using the ABC/ESPN reverse mirror effect.

THIS WEEK IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY

** The game of football traces its roots to an event held 140 years ago today. On Nov. 6, 1869, Rutgers and Princeton squared off in Brunswick, N.J., for what has often been described as the first-ever game of American football. The 1869 game – won 6 “runs” to 4 by Rutgers – bore little resemblance to what football is known as today. For example, each side used 25 men on a 120-yard field and the rules were said to be a mixture of rugby and soccer. Players attempted to score by kicking the ball into the opposing team’s goal, and throwing or carrying the ball was not allowed.

Purists believe the first real game of college football occurred in 1874 between Harvard and McGill University of Montreal. Others contend college football began in 1880 when Yale head coach Walter Camp devised a number of major changes in the game, including establishing rules for scrimmage as well as down and distance.

Nevertheless, it is the game that occurred 140 years ago today in New Jersey that has become accepted as the first step in the evolution of American college football.

** Also occurring during this week in college football history: On Nov. 3, 1984, Ohio State rolled to a 50-7 victory over Indiana, giving future College Football Hall of Fame coach Earle Bruce his 100th career win; on Nov. 4, 2000, Utah State running back Emmett White established a new NCAA single-game record with 578 all-purpose yards as the Aggies took a 44-37 win over New Mexico State; on Nov. 5, 1960, third-ranked Minnesota forced three turnovers and scored a 27-10 upset of top-ranked Iowa; on Nov. 7, 1959, unranked Tennessee stopped Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon on a fourth-quarter two-point conversion run and preserved a 14-13 upset over No. 1 LSU, ending the Tigers’ 19-game unbeaten streak; and on Nov. 8, 1975, unranked Kansas ended No. 2 Oklahoma’s 28-game winning streak by going into Norman and carving out a 23-3 upset victory. The defending national champion Sooners committed seven second-half turnovers and were held to their lowest scoring output in nine seasons. They rebounded, however, and went on to defeat Penn State in the Orange Bowl for a second consecutive national title.

AROUND THE COUNTRY

** The seven undefeated teams at the Division I-A level are hanging in there. Congratulations so far to Alabama, Boise State, Cincinnati, Florida, Iowa, Texas and TCU. Perhaps if we finish the season with five or six undefeated teams, a playoff system will come that much faster.

** Maybe this is the decade I lived in Texas talking, but wouldn’t Texas vs. TCU be an intriguing matchup for the national championship? The Longhorns lead the country in scoring and are third in total defense; the Horned Frogs are 11th in scoring and first in total defense.

** Think Iowa is a second-half team? After being outscored by a combined 88-83 in the first half, the Hawkeyes have swamped opponents after intermission to the tune of 148-54. In the fourth quarter alone, Iowa has outscored the opposition by a 100-38 margin.

** If Iowa can win out, it will capture its first Big Ten championship since tying for the 2004 crown. It would also be the Hawkeyes’ first outright title since 1985.

** Just when things were turning around at Michigan, the Wolverines hit a brick wall. The defense surrendered 377 rushing yards to Illinois last weekend – the same Illinois team that hadn’t beaten a Division I-A team all season – during a 38-13 loss. Coupled with last year’s 45-20 loss in Ann Arbor, Michigan has now lost to Illinois in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1957 and ’58. This year’s defeat also means the Wolverines must win out to avoid the program’s first consecutive losing Big Ten seasons since 1962 and ’63.

** Congratulations to my father-in-law’s alma mater. After beginning the season with eight straight losses, Miami (Ohio) finally got into the victory column last week with a 31-24 win over Toledo at Yager Stadium. Quarterback Zac Dysert ran for two touchdowns and threw for another as the RedHawks snapped an overall 13-game losing streak and avoided their first winless season since 1988.

** The win by Miami left the Division I-A winless list at four: Rice, Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky and New Mexico. Pity the Lobos. They still have to play Mountain West Conference rivals Utah, BYU and TCU.

** In case you haven’t noticed, there is a definite Yellow Jacket buzz in the ACC. Georgia Tech has quietly moved into the national rankings with an 8-1 record that includes last week’s 56-31 dismantling of SEC member Vanderbilt in Nashville. Tech rolled up 597 yards of offense on Vandy, including 404 on the ground, proving once again that head coach Paul Johnson’s triple-option attack can be successful at the BCS level.

** A tough season for Syracuse got tougher Monday when leading receiver Mike Williams decided to leave the team. Williams, who had 49 catches for 746 yards and six touchdowns in seven games this season, was ranked sixth in the nation in receiving yards per game. Unfortunately, he has had myriad off-the-field problems. He didn’t play last season because of academic problems, and Williams was suspended for the Oct. 24 game against Akron for violating team policy. Williams finishes his career with 20 touchdown catches, tying him with Marvin Harrison (1992-95) for the second-most in Syracuse history. Rob Moore (1987-89) is the Orange career leader in touchdown receptions with 22.

** Speaking of Moore, he later became an NFL receiver for the Arizona Cardinals, and played a vital – if unaccredited – role in the 1996 film “Jerry Maguire” starting Tom Cruise. Cuba Gooding Jr. won a best supporting actor Academy Award for playing Arizona receiver Rod “Show Me The Money!” Tidwell in that movie. Both Moore and the fictional Tidwell wore No. 85 for the Cardinals, and it is actual game footage of Moore that you see in the film.

** My weekly top five for the Heisman Trophy didn’t change for the first time in a while. I still have Texas QB Colt McCoy in the top spot followed by Boise State QB Kellen Moore, Alabama RB Mark Ingram, Florida QB Tim Tebow and Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen. This week’s dark horse: Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli.

** What has happened to the mighty SEC? Only three teams remain in the national rankings – Florida at No. 1, Alabama at No. 3 and LSU at No. 9. There is no doubt that the SEC features a couple of the best teams in the country, but let’s dispense with the notion it is the best conference from top to bottom. Just like most every other league, the teams in the middle of the SEC standings are merely average and the bottom-feeders are bottom-feeders.

FEARLESS FORECAST

For the second week in a row, we were nearly perfect with the straight-up picks, including the Upset Special of Oregon over USC. We were 9-1 with last week’s picks, pushing the yearly total to 65-18.

Against the spread, we were not as fortunate. It was another losing week at 4-5-1, dropping the season line to 32-38-1.

Here are the games we like this week. (All rankings are BCS standings.)

TONIGHT’S GAME

No. 7 Boise State at Louisiana Tech: Here’s a fun fact regarding the Broncos. In their last two games, they forced eight turnovers while helped them beat Hawaii and San Jose State by a combined score of 99-16. In their previous two games, Boise produced no turnovers and defeated UC-Davis and Tulsa by a combined score of 62-37. Obviously, creating turnovers makes a big difference for any team, and the Broncos may need a couple tonight. The Bulldogs are only 3-5 but they have a pretty good offense with QB Ross Jenkins (1,467 yards, 11 TDs) and RB Daniel Porter (640 yards, 7 TDs). Unfortunately, their defense is not quite up to the task of corralling the Broncos … Boise State 37, Louisiana Tech 24. (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

SATURDAY’S GAMES

Northwestern at No. 4 Iowa: As mentioned above, the Hawkeyes have had their problems recently with the Wildcats. However, it may have been last year’s 22-17 home loss to Northwestern that served as a springboard for this year’s Iowa team. In that game, QB Ricky Stanzi drove his team to the NU 8-yard line for a potential go-ahead score but then threw four straight incompletions. Stanzi and the Hawkeyes obviously took away something valuable from that lesson because they’ve learned how to win those close games – Iowa has trailed in eight of its nine victories this season. Meanwhile, Northwestern is hoping QB Mike Kafka recovers quickly from the hamstring problem that forced him out of last week’s loss to Penn State. Kafka’s presence would help the Wildcats’ cause, but we’re not sure they have enough defense to keep Stanzi and the Hawkeyes in check … Iowa 26, Northwestern 17. (12 noon ET, ESPN)

Western Michigan at Michigan State: The Spartans are the anti-Iowa this season. While the Hawkeyes find a way to win, Mark Dantonio’s team has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory countless times. Of course, Sparty apologists will point to the team’s five losses and say they are a mere 23 points from being undefeated. The bottom line? They have five losses and Dantonio needs to get his late-game management under control if he wants to avoid his first losing season in East Lansing. Job one is to take care of the Broncos and history is certainly on Michigan State’s side. The Spartans are 8-2 all-time against Western, and haven’t lost in the series to WMU since 1919 … Michigan State 26, Western Michigan 14. (12 noon ET, BTN)

No. 21 Wisconsin at Indiana: The Badgers dropped off everyone’s radar screen – and rightfully so – after back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Iowa, but they have a very good chance to win out and record a 10-win season. Their final four opponents are a combined 16-19, and they begin this week with the Hoosiers. IU is reeling with five losses in their last six games, and the Hoosiers surrendered second-half leads in three of those contests. Defensively, Indiana is giving up more than 400 yards per game and that won’t be helped any by the loss of senior cornerback Ray Fisher to a season-ending knee injury. The Badgers have won four straight and 10 of the last 12 in the series by simply pounding away with their running attack and we don’t see any reason why that formula shouldn’t work again this year … Wisconsin 34, Indiana 14. (12 noon ET, BTN)

Syracuse at No. 13 Pittsburgh: While everyone has conceded the Big East championship to Cincinnati, the Panthers are purring along with an offense featuring the nation’s third-rated passer and fourth-leading rusher. QB Bill Stull has completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 1,654 yards and 16 TDs against only two picks, while RB Dion Lewis has quietly rushed for 1,029 yards and 11 TDs. But for once, Dave Wannstedt’s team isn’t all offense. Pitt also leads the nation in sacks and ranks among the nation’s top 25 in rushing, total and scoring defense. That is not exactly the recipe for a Syracuse upset, especially since the Orange rank 106th nationally in total offense. Making matters worse – leading receiver Mike Williams left the team and first-year head coach Doug Marrone suspended three other players this week … Pittsburgh 38, Syracuse 14. (12 noon ET, ESPNU)

No. 8 Oregon at Stanford: The Ducks couldn’t have looked much better while skewering USC last Saturday night. This week, they need to avoid a letdown on their way to their first Rose Bowl since a 38-20 loss to Penn State in the 1995 game. The Cardinal is no pushover, especially in Palo Alto. Jim Harbaugh’s team is a perfect 4-0 at home this season and has won nine of its last 10 at Stanford Stadium. QB Andrew Luck is an underrated talent with 1,825 yards and nine TDs while Cardinal RB Toby Gerhart has 994 yards and 13 TDs. With Stanford trying to protect its home turf and playing to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2001, this has all the makings of a trap game for Oregon. After watching the Ducks last week, though, it would be difficult to pick against them … Oregon 34, Stanford 24. (3:30 p.m. ET, FSN)

Wake Forest at No. 10 Georgia Tech: Some fans are never satisfied. The Yellow Jackets are leading the ACC Coastal Division and angling for their first-ever BCS bowl and their fans are criticizing their defense. True, Paul Johnson’s team ranks no higher than seventh in the conference in any of the major defensive categories. But when you have a juggernaut of an offense, you can simply bludgeon most of your opponents into submission. Because of the nation’s No. 2 running attack, Tech is averaging more than 35 points and 440 yards per game. That should be more than enough to get past the Demon Deacons, who are ninth in the ACC against the run and 10th in total defense … Georgia Tech 41, Wake Forest 24. (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)

No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama: Chicks may dig the long ball but football purists still embrace a good, old-fashioned defensive struggle and this game should be one of those kinds of brawls. The Crimson Tide have the No. 5 scoring defense in the nation while the Tigers are No. 7. You could make the case that the Bama offense hasn’t played well for a month, averaging a mere 18.0 points over its last three games. During that same stretch, however, the defense has given up an average of only 6.3. Meanwhile, LSU has scored 30 or more five times this season and has averaged 36.5 over its past two games. Still, the Tigers struggled mightily in their only loss, a 13-3 defeat against Florida. Coupled with the Tide playing at home and coming off an open week, the edge would seem to tilt slightly Bama’s way … Alabama 10, LSU 6. (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 6 TCU at San Diego State: The Horned Frogs’ task is pretty simple: win all of your games and maybe you’ll get a BCS bid. Seemingly no one outside Fort Worth believes TCU belongs in the big-money bowls, but the Frogs are doing their part. They moved up to No. 6 in the AP poll this week, their highest ranking since 1956, but that No. 6 spot in the BCS standings is more important. This week, TCU travels to sunny San Diego where the Aztecs are experiencing something of a renaissance. Under first-year head coach Brady Hoke, they are 4-4 and hopeful of a first winning record since 1998. (To be fair, they did finish 6-6 in 2003.) Unfortunately for Hoke and the Aztecs, they are winless in four games against the Frogs since TCU joined the Mountain West. That streak likely goes to five … TCU 45, San Diego State 3. (4 p.m. ET, Versus)

No. 12 USC at Arizona State: It’s not very often a Pete Carroll-coached team has to pick up the pieces after a devastating loss. Then again, no one has beaten a Carroll team like Oregon did last week. That 47-20 loss to the Ducks was the most lopsided loss for a USC team in 12 years, and the 613 yards allowed by the Trojans was the second-most in program history. It’s a good time to get out of town, and the perfect destination is Tempe. The Trojans haven’t lost back-to-back games since 2001 – Carroll’s first season in Tinseltown – and USC is working on an eight-game winning streak in its series with the Sun Devils. What’s more is the fact that Arizona State has lost its last 13 games at home against top-15 competition. Sounds a lot like a bounce-back opportunity for the Trojans, doesn’t it? … USC 34, Arizona State 21. (8 p.m. ET, ABC Regional/ESPN)

Connecticut at No. 5 Cincinnati: While backup quarterback Zach Collaros has gotten most of the recent attention, the Bearcats’ defense has gone largely unnoticed. It shouldn’t because UC’s last two opponents have combined for only 17 points and neither Louisville nor Syracuse totaled 300 yards. Collaros will likely be under center again Saturday night as regular starter Tony Pike continues to struggle following forearm surgery a couple of weeks ago. The Huskies are still reeling from the Oct. 18 stabbing death of cornerback Jasper Howard, and last week lost starting quarterback Cody Endress with a season-ending shoulder injury. That doesn’t bode well for UConn, which has lost by double digits in all three of its previous visits to Nippert Stadium, where the Bearcats have won 10 in a row and 20 of their last 22 … Cincinnati 38, Connecticut 14. (8 p.m. ET, ABC Regional/ESPN)

No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State: Many observers believe this game should look a lot like the one last year when one mistake – Terrelle Pryor’s fumble – meant the difference in the Nittany Lions’ 13-6 victory in Columbus. A couple of things to remember, though: Penn State’s defense is not quite as good as it was last year, and Ohio State’s defense is better than it was a year ago. Add that to the fact Pryor returns to his home state and wants to win this game more than any other on the schedule, and you get a victory for the Buckeyes that isn’t as close as some think it’s going to be. Here is your Upset Special … Ohio State 20, Penn State 10. (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)

Here are the spreads for the above games: Boise State at Louisiana Tech (+21½); Northwestern (+16½) at Iowa; Western Michigan (+20½) at Michigan State; Wisconsin (-10) at Indiana; Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-21); Oregon (-6) at Stanford; Wake Forest at Georgia Tech (-15); LSU (+8) at Alabama; TCU (-24) at San Diego State; USC (-10) at Arizona State; Connecticut at Cincinnati (-16); Ohio State (+4) at Penn State.

In the interest of full disclosure, we are flying in the face of recent history with the Upset Special. In its past five trips to Happy Valley, Ohio State is 1-4 ATS. Enjoy the games.

My NEW BCS Top 8

I know the real BCS scores are out, and right now if you are an undefeated team, you are on that top 10 list easily, but there are also a few one-loss teams that are making a statement to try to get to that BCS Championship.

As I speak there are still technically MANY teams that can fight for that Championship game. To be truthful, at this moment if you have one loss, you are still in the mix IF you are in a BCS conference.

For example, from the ACC there is still Georgia Tech with one loss. You have Pittsburgh with one loss from the Big East, and Penn State from the Big 10. LSU still has one loss in the SEC, while Oregon remains with only one loss from the first game of their season. And although they are not a BCS Conference, I give Utah a nod too because the Mountain West Conference is as tough as most of the BCS conferences this year.

But because Oregon defeated USC in a major game, I would, at least for the moment, make them the best one loss team in the nation, and include them in my list of the top 8…this is temporary, because I have not run other teams through my NEW BCS formula. I only did the 7 undefeated teams and Oregon. So for the moment, I have my top 8 teams, based on my formula.

#8 Oregon (291 points): This is premature, because I have not run the other one loss teams through my formula, but I will give them the TEMPORARY benefit of the doubt for this spot because they knocked off USC, which was a major win. But because they have played a lot of the bottom feeders of the Pac-10, this could be with mixed reviews.

#7 Boise State (300 points): You see here how a BCS team with one loss is almost as good as a team from a weak conference like Boise State? To their credit, they have won every game, including beating Oregon, but when your WAC schedule turns weak as water, there isn’t much respect that one can give over the other teams. Beating one great team is awesome, but to be a BCS Champ, you gotta beat more than one a year.

#6 Cincinnati (303 points): Only 3 points make the difference between Cincinnati and Boise State, and the strength of schedule favors Cincinnati. Granted, both teams are seen as underdogs, but if the Bearcats can get that big game with Pittsburgh without them losing another game, it would clearly validate them over Boise State…still gotta win to get there though.

#5 TCU (311 points): TCU to me is coming out of a better and stronger conference at the moment than Cincinnati. Having Utah, BYU and Air Force makes a pretty tough conference, not to take anything away from the Big East. But the formula also shows that this TCU team has a very good defense, and they do have 2 quality wins over top 25 teams, as opposed to one by Boise State or Cincinnati.

#4 Florida (326 points): The difference between Florida and the two teams above them is only 5 points…this is razor thin. But you can easily guess one of those teams above Florida, and if both go undefeated, they would meet in the SEC Championship… as I said on other blogs, this is a problem that will solve itself.

#3 Alabama (331 points): Alabama is by my stats the best defensive team on the list, and this is what helped them lock in this spot. But some wonder how good this team is, and we will learn everything this weekend when LSU plays Alabama. If they get by LSU, we expect a date with Florida in the SEC Championships. Few will argue that the winner goes to the BCS Championship.

#2 Texas (332 points): Slimmest of margins make Texas almost a shoe in for the BCS Championship. The Big 12 isn’t as dangerous as it was last year, and Texas has no equal. The next few games could be a walk in the park, but the Longhorns have to be careful not to slip up on games they are favored to win. Texas gets a bonus game in the Big 12 Championship, which if they win should remove any doubt as to them being either the best, or second best, in the nation.

#1 Iowa (342 points): Many wonder if Iowa could squeeze in the BCS if they go undefeated, and my formula has them as the best team in the nation…BUT there is an exception here. Iowa is the only team in this list with 9 games and 9 wins. That extra game gives them many more points above anyone with 8 wins. As you can see, they have 11 points more than Texas, who is number 2. But a couple of weeks ago when I started doing this, Iowa had about a 40 point lead, having played one more game than anybody else. What this may be showing is that as the season goes on, we learn the true strength of Iowa in that even after 9 wins, their hold on the number 1 spot is very small…and apparently shrinking.

So if the season ended now, one might assume that I am saying that Iowa and Texas plays in the National Championship…not really. Remember, Iowa has played more games at this point than anybody else, and is benefiting from that advantage. All things being equal, it seems to boil back down to Texas vs. the likely winner of the Alabama/Florida SEC championship …but that is only if Alabama gets by LSU.

And what if Iowa beats Ohio State?

What if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh?

So many questions…but all will be told in time….