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jiller — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:41:01 +0000

imralının sevdalısı, aponun dışkı yiyicisi, Türkiye düşmanı avrupa! şimdi de memleketin aydınlık yüzü Fenerbahçe düşmanlığı mı yapmaya başladın?!

mescalinia — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:52:31 +0000

şimdi bir bahis ve şike meselesi çıktı ve zürriyet denen eskinin gazetesi şimdinin şantaja maruz kalmış paçavrasında habire sarı-lacivert uefa topunun eşliğinde bombardıman edilip duruyor fenerbahçe maçlarının isimleri.

hayır bu gastemsi nesnenin internet sitesine dönüp baktığında porno ve fenerbahçe aleyhine yayından başka bir şey olsa gam yemeyeceğiz. memleketin esaslı meselelerine dair yani. ama yok işte sadece pornografi, tayyip erdoğan yalakalığı ve de fenerbahçe aleyhtarlığı var. başka bir numaraları yok gastecilik niyetine.

galatasarayın avrupadaki kayırılma olayının imralı sempatisinden olduğunu bilmeyen de yoktur aslında.

ha bir de fettullah mı, fetullah mı, fethullah mı her neyse işte etkisinin memleketimizde estirdiği gerici ve anti-Türkçü rüzgarların ve bu rüzgarlara yelken açmış malum kulübün avrupadan aldığı destek de bunun bir ekstrası, bonusu zaten.

memleketimin aydınlık yüzü fenerbahçem ise, dünya kulübü olma yolunda ne etnik, ne de cemaatsal faaliyetlere yanaşmadı ya, sadece kendi taraftar imkanları ile en modern avrupa kulüplerinin tesis ve gelir seviyesine yaklaşmaya başladı ya, avrupada onca “hakem tarafından kesilme çabalarına” rağmen çeyrek final oynamayı başardı ya, yine avrupada henüz bismillah kritik bir penaltı alamadığı halde etnik yandaş ve cemaatçi unsurları bakımından ecnebinin sevgilisi olan gs’ ye kritik anlarda penaltı dahil kıyaklar yağdırılmakta ya, (bkz. geçen sezon hertha berlin-galatasaray olmayan son dakika penaltısı), şimdi de habire fenerbahçe maçlarını şikeye bulaştırma gayretleri var.

gözüne battı mis gibi kulübüm, avrupanın!

gözleri çıksın inşallah!

hiç inandırıcı değilsin abdullah öcalanın, nam-ı diğer itbaşının hayranı avrupa hem de hiç!

eğer sorununuz gerçekten de adalet dağıtmak ise bölücü uefa, ben sizin yerinizde olsam daha başka bir yere bakmadan önce, ilk önce, en başta galatasaray maçlarına bakardım. bir de hakemlerine. ve fenerbahçe maçları ile kıyaslardım. neden galatasaray maçlarında yabancı hakemlerin hep gs lehine kararlar verip rakiplerine saç-baş yoldurduklarını ve fenerbahçe maçlarında da tam tersini yaşattıklarını sorgulardım mesela.

bu arada aziz başkan yabancı hakem istediği zaman hep acı acı gülüyorum.

değişmez ki başkanım hakemler bu pkk ve ermeni itbaşı yanlısı avrupadan gelecek olduktan sonra ve bir de dünya futbolunun başkanı fransız olunca!

ha unutmadan, o sarı-lacivert topla “top olma özelliği bakımından” soydaş ol e mi zürriyet spor servisi sorumlusu!

GS love

Luc JDM — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 04:29:23 +0000

Y a beaucoup de GS sur le BloG, surtout celles avec un 2jz et évidemment, les belles que Orido conduit. Vous me direz que j’aime bien les Gs : c vrai

Citi & UBS Under S&P Eagle Eye (MFG, UBS, C, HBC, GS)

247wallst — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:21:14 +0000

Many, or most, major banks do not have enough capital to comfortably maintain their current ratings. Standard & Poor’s has a report out saying that the banks are underfunded despite capital raised and despite the recovery we have seen. Standard & Poor’s introduced a new tracking for capital adequacy and even questions how useful standard market and regulatory measures are. Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) are two of the trouble spots outlined herein.

In the larger international banks, S&P noted that the average risk-adjusted capital ratios in those banks it reviews was 6.7%. That is over 3% under average tier one ratios. S&P believes that the current capital “remains a neutral to negative rating factor for the majority of banks” it covers. S&P now believes that banks need to have a risk-adjusted capital ratio of at least 8%. S&P has issues over tier one and leverage ratios, because they do not adjust for risks and are not consistent.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: MFG) was listed as the most vulnerable at an approximate 2% ratio; and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) remained among the weaker banks.

HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) was the strongest with a 9.2% ratio; and ING Bank NV (NYSE: ING) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) were also listed in the stronger bank category. 24/7 Watt St. still argues that Goldman Sachs is a bank that is truly no bank.

When you see reports like this it is not always a signal of an imminent downgrade. But the tone sure sounds more like downgrades are coming if more capital is not raised or if things do not just start to improve on their own.

JON C. OGG

Treasury: Geithner Out, Jamie Dimon In?

247wallst — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:08:53 +0000

The speculation over the fate of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed chief Ben Bernanke has grown as Congress has become more troubled by rising federal deficits and unemployment. The $787 billion stimulus package has done too little to create jobs. GDP growth is anemic. Soomebody will have to take the fall between now and the mid-term elections.

The theory is that the President will fire Geithner and pull he support for reappointing Bernanke to show that he is concerned with the problem and is willing to bring in new blood.

The latest in speculation is the Geithner will be gone soon and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon will become the next Secretary of the Treasury.

The New York Post reports that ”a number of policy makers have begun mentioning Dimon as a successor to Geithner.” While other large money center banks struggled to stay in business during the credit crisis, JPMorgan did relatively well. JPM has also apparently been reasonable about the pay packages it has given to its management and top financiers, unlike Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which will distribute record bonuses this year.

Dimon is not likely to want the job. If he leaves the banking business for a few years, there is no guarantee that he can get another position running one of the country’s top half a dozen financial firms. And, there is always the chance that if the economy continues to stagnate, he will be indentifed with the problem and his reputation will be tarnished.

Douglas A McIntyre

Media Digest 11/23/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

247wallst — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:59:42 +0000

Reuters: The dollar may keep rising as investors close out bets on oil and the currency.

Reuters: Black Friday deals may not signal a retail comeback.

Reuters: Kraft (NYSE:KFT) is weighing a higher Cadbury bid as competition from Hershey (NYSE:HSY) and Nestle may emerge.

Reuters: A group of economists raised their estimates for US growth next year.

Reuters: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS) are working on a distribution deal that would take News Corp’s news sites off Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).

Reuters: A Fed official said the mortgage-related asset purchase program should be extended.

Reuters: Chieftain Capital may break into two firms.

Reuters: JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) may outsource some back office operations to India which would bring hundreds of millions of dollars in sales to Wipro (NYSE:WIT), Infsys (NASDAQ:INFY) and Tata Consultancy. More US financial firms may move operations as they pay TARP funds.

Reuters: Japan is leaning toward buying F-35 fighters from Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT).

WSJ: Investors are backing away from risk as the year ends.

WSJ: Italy’s Eni will buy oil stake in Uganda.

WSJ: Reliance Industries made a $12 billion bid to take control of LyondellBasell

WSJ: Nissan may produce its electric cars in China.

WSJ: eBay’s (NASDAQ:EBAY) search feature was down on Saturday.

WSJ: Existing home sales are up but that has not helped the US housing market much.

WSJ: Banks are playing a dangerous game by using short term debt to fund loans.

WSJ: Chrysler is offering 10% financing and $5,000 cash back on 2010 models.

WSJ: Government payments on debt are based on interest rates that are likely to rise and by 2019 debt service could be $700 billion a year.

FT: Microsoft and News Corp are talking about a web deal to counter Google News.

FT: Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) will work to triple sales in China within a decade.

Bloomberg: The dollar may not bottom until next year.

Douglas A. McIntyre

GÖKHAN ZAN

bircanogankul — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:24:12 +0000

Teşekkürler Gökhan Zan…!!! Beşiktaş bugün hakederek bir galibiyet aldı fakat bu galibiyetin

bochum’ da düzenlenen zayton-cup’ ın internet sitesini kim kaldırdı uleynnn?

mescalinia — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:42:21 +0000

valla bu bochum savcılığı atağa geçince ben de araştırmadan duramadım.

meğer bu bochum şehri ile güzide kulübümüz galatasaray’ ın sıkı fıkı bir alakası varmış.

meğer güzide kulübümüz galatasaray’ ımız o maddi yokluklar içinde “sancılı” olduğu söylenen sezona hazırlık kampını bu güzide al(a)man şehrinde yapmış.

meğer ben bile burada düzenledikleri zayton-cup diye bi turnuva çerçevesindeki bir maç için blog yazmışım.

şimdi hatırladım iyi mi?

işte linki de burada:

http://leydifenerli.wordpress.com/2009/07/05/rijkaard-in-ilk-penaltisi-pardon-galibiyeti-zayton-cup-gs-1-0-al-ahly-kairo/

bu durumu bir tesadüf olduğu düşüncesi ile giriyorum… şimdilik tabii ki. ve araştırmacı gasteciliğimizin devam edeceğini bildiriyor, bundan kimsenin kuşkusu olmasın diyorum

yorumları ve yeni teorileri bekliyoruz fenerli arkadaşlar! burada zayton-cup turnuvası çerçevesinde oynanan maçlarla alakalı hakem listeleri, maç sonuçları, kimlerin ne kadarlık iddaa kuponu oynamış olabileceği gibi bilgileri de. hatta ard niyetimiz girdi bir kere bu işin içine ki, önceki sene düzenlenen antalya-cup için de benzer bilgileri araştırmak gerektiğini düşünüyoruz. fikir ve önerileri mutlaka bekliyoruz

Is Goldman Sachs Stupid or Evil?

ilene9 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:50:31 +0000

Friday: Dell Misses, Is Goldman Sachs Stupid or Evil?

By Phil at Phil’s Stock World

How can a firm that never loses money be so totally wrong?

Just this Monday, Goldman Sachs helped to gap the markets higher at the open in low-volume futures trading with the following pronouncement: “Goldman Sachs resumes coverage on Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and gave DELL a Buy rating at a 12-month price target of $19. Goldman believes that DELL will benefit from a corporate PC refresh cycle and will show better earnings as DELL is trying to optimize its cost structure. Goldman believes Dell will report better than expected earnings and beat analysts’ expectations. Goldman expects DELL to report earnings of $1.09 for CY2009 and $1.37 for CY2010 from their previous estimates of $1.07 for CY2009 and $1.35 for CY2010.” Fact is, they missed by a mile.

That report took Dell up 2% for the day and the Dow gained 150 points and we were dumbfounded by the move, both in DELL, who were swallowing a difficult acquisition of Perot Systems and of the market, which acted like $31Bn DELL is the same kind of bellwether that $120Bn HPQ is, even if Goldman’s report had been even close to accurate. As it was, they couldn’t have been more wrong if they were playing “opposite day.” How is it that a firm that has only 3 losing trading days in 6 months can be this amazingly wrong on crucial analysis?

So is Goldman actually stupid and, as many have implied, simply cheating to rack up their amazing market gains or are they intentionally manipulating the markets. Former GS-employee Jim Cramer jumped right on the bandwagon on Monday afternoon and told viewers that “obviously,” since DELL is going to do so well (because GS says so) that INTC and MSFT must be buys too.

This is how manipulative stock pumping works – start a rumor, push it out through the media, extrapolate the rumor out to affect market-moving stocks that don’t even have upcoming news events and then tell people they are missing an opportunity, even after the train has left the station (by Cramer’s 2:30 spot on Monday, the Nasdaq had already hit the high for the week, peaking out exactly at the moment Cramer told his retail investors to pile into the market).

Were the beautiful sheeple only buying what Cramer’s buddies were selling? Is that how GS makes their money, buying low on Friday, making an upgrade on Monday, getting their pals to sucker people into the “rally” and then dumping into the retail frenzy? Sure buying low and selling high is what you are supposed to do - but there’s a fine line between good timing and manipulating the market and when you allow the single largest daily trader of stocks on the planet Earth to also be one its most influential stock analysts – how can you possibly draw that line?

So, was Monday’s call by Goldman an indication of how inacurate their research is and a scary indication that, perhaps, everything else they’ve been saying about oil, gold, the economy in general is also fundamentally flawed or are they just manipulating the markets with cleverly timed market announcements and then using their influence in the mainstream media to drive investors into positions which they dump at huge profits while wiping out ordinary investors? Maybe it’s all just a big coincidence, let’s hide our heads in the sand and hope so…

Speaking of manipulative market pronouncements, bond king Bill Gross decided option expiration day would be the best time to say that Chinese growth is likely to be hurt by an absence of consumer demand from trading partners such as the U.S. “The Chinese, I suspect, will have a bubble of their own to confront,” Gross said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “It’s gearing up for export that doesn’t find an end consumer, that’s the real problem in China.”

The “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles in global economies and markets is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows, Gross wrote in his December investment outlook, posted on Pimco’s Web site yesterday. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and officials in Asia including Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan are also warning of bubbles in the region. “With unemployment in the double digits and likely to stay close to that for the next six months despite job creation ahead, the Fed has nowhere to go,” Gross said. His outlook asks:

OK, so where does that leave you, the individual investor, the small saver who is paying the price of the .01%? Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Do you buy the investment grade bond market with its average yield of 3.75% (less than 3% after upfront fees and annual expenses at most run-of-the-mill bond funds)? Do you buy high yield bonds at 8% and assume the risk of default bullets whizzing at you? Or 2% yielding stocks that have already appreciated 65% from the recent bottom, which according to some estimates are now well above their long-term PE average on a cyclically adjusted basis?

Two suggestions. First, as emphasized in prior Investment Outlooks, the New Normal is likely to be a significantly lower-returning world. Diminished growth, deleveraging, and increased government involvement will temper profits and their eventual distribution to investors in the form of dividends and interest. As banks, auto companies and other corporate models become more regulated and therefore more like utilities and less like Boardwalk and Park Place, they will return less.

Where does that leave us indeed? Not only is Bill Gross worried about China but Japan’s Deputy Prime Minister Kan is worried about DEflation, despite runaway commodity prices. “My understanding is that Japan is in a deflationary state,” said Kan. “There’s a sense of crisis” regarding deflation, Finance Minister Fujii said today, calling on the central bank to respond to the threat while adding that rates are already “very low” limiting room for further monetary policy action. The Nikkei dropped below 9,500 this morning, joined by the Hang Seng dropping below 22,500 as Asian stocks fell for the 4th consecutive day. Even the Shanghai Composite fell today so we’re feeling good about those FXPs I mentioned in yesterday’s morning post.

Over in Europe we are down about half a point ahead of the US market open (9am) as Trichet says the ECB may phase out some emergency aid in seeking stable prices. “Not all our liquidity measures will be needed to the same extent as in the past,” Trichet said at a conference in Frankfurt today. “Any non-standard measure whose continuation would pose a threat to the achievement of price stability must be undone promptly and unequivocally.” A separate Bloomberg survey of economists and real estate brokers showed British house prices will probably fall next year, and it may not take until 2014 to return to the levels at the 2007 peak of the country’s biggest housing boom.

Nationwide Building Society Chief Executive Officer Graham Beale said the rise in U.K. house prices this year has been caused by a low number of properties available for sale and the trend may reverse next year, pushing property prices lower. “The market is still overvalued, whichever measure you use,” said Seema Shah, a housing economist at Capital Economics Ltd., a research group in London, who was the most bearish in the survey. “Prices need to fall a further 20 percent to 25 percent to get back their long-term trend.”

The dollar is looking bouncy this morning and that will be good for UUP and all our bearish commodity plays. We’ll see how our levels hold up for today. 2 weeks ago I posted our expected 25% level targets for this move at Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600. We’re already failing to hold those lines and it’s doubtful they will be taken back so it’s time to look at our expected retrace levels of Dow 9,840, S&P 1,056, Nas 2,100, NYSE 6,720 and Russell 576. Let’s take failures there VERY seriously but, if we do hold them, then all this is just a healthy pullback off the top!

As we were then, we’ll be watching the FTSE, who would put us globally bearish below 5,250 (right on the line) and the DAX, who would put us globally bullish above 5,750 (now at 5,650). Dow Transports need to get back over 4,000 (now 3,956) and the SOX need to hold 300 (now 310) or we may be heading for a very nasty fall next week. Hopefully it won’t come to that but, meanwhile – let’s continue to be very careful out there!

Have a nice weekend,

- Phil

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Today's Best Market Rumors (11/20/2009) (GS)(JAVA)

247wallst — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:01:43 +0000

Updated throughout the day.

GE (NYSE:GE) and Vivendi are at odds over the NBCU valuation (FT)

IBM (NYSE:IBM) is taking advantage of the delay in the Sun (NASDAQ:JAVA) deal to be bought by Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) (TheStreet)

The joint venture between Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) and BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) may lead to a merger. (various)

Ferrero may want to buy Cadbury’s gum and candy division. (NYTimes)

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) investors want the firm to cut down the size of bonuses to be paid at the end of the year (various)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Big Goldman Sachs (GS) Shareholders Fight Bonuses

247wallst — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:55:07 +0000

A number of large Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) shareholders would like to see the firm’s profits in their pockets and not in the bank accounts of the Goldman partners.

The Wall Street Journal reports that many institutions that hold Goldman shares are upset that the firm’s EPS will be down this year even though the investment bank will post record sales. A great deal of this drop is because Goldman issued 100 million shares to improve its balance sheet. Cutting compensation would rebuild EPS figures which should help drive up the value of the stock.

The flaw in the shareholders’ argument is simple. Big pay packages are, in Goldman’s case, based on remarkable performances. Goldman’s key partners have created results that have pushed the company’s stock from a price of $52 a year ago to $173. Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE:MS) shares have performed about as well, but the stocks in other major banks have lagged well behind the better than three-fold improvement in Goldman’s share price.

Congress and the Administration assumed that they can reign in pay packages on Wall St. and that performance at firms like Goldman will not be effected. Now, Goldman shareholders are making a similar assumption. Programs to cut pay packages will certainly drive some of the best financial talent to private equity firms and hedge funds. The question is how large the exodus will be.

Goldman’s shareholders may win their fight with management over pay packages. They may also lose in the long run if a number of the company’s best people leave.

Look at Goldman Sachs in the 24/7 Wall St. 500

Douglas A. McIntyre

Media Digest 11/20/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

247wallst — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:56:17 +0000

Reuters: The Senate is near its first vote on healthcare.

Reuters: Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) is betting on corporate spending for its recovery.

Reuters: Time Warner’s (NYSE:TWX) AOL showed that the worst is not over for media job cuts.

Reuters: China cyber-spying against the US will probably grow.

Reuters: Oprah will end her talk show in September 2011.

WSJ: Large shareholders are asking Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to cut bonuses.

Reuters: GE (NYSE:GE) and Vivendi are $1 billion apart on the value of NBCU.

Reuters: Ferrero may want the Cadbury gum and candy unit.

Reuters: The bank bill is delayed in the House and the Senate is divided over the legislation.

Reuters: The Fed sees little risk in inflation in a weak economy.

Reuters: Chrysler may close another 100 dealerships.

Reuters: PricewaterhouseCoopers says corporate accounting fraud is rising around the world.

WSJ: Gap’s (NYSE:GPS) profits rose 25%.

WSJ: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) says Windows 7 is selling well.

WSJ: VW’s board approved its merger with Porsche.

WSJ: The chairman of GM is pushing for higher quality cars.

WSJ: Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) announced plans for its Chrome operating system.

WSJ: The Administration’s estimate of stimulus job gains is being attacked.

WSJ: GE (NYSE:GE) is focusing on industrial and infrastructure businesses.

WSJ: Retailers are cutting prices on the Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) Pixi.

WSJ: China Mobile (NASDAQ:CHL) is counting on 3G for growth.

WSJ: Sony (NASDAQ:SNE) will focus more on moving its businesses online.

WSJ: More homeowners are falling behind in mortgage payments.

WSJ: Private equity firm Carlyle will put money into three Chinese high growth firms.

WSJ: The EU is speeding up an antitrust investigation into the McGraw-Hill (NYSE:MHP) S&P group.

WSJ: Harbinger cut its stock holdings in The New York Times (NYSE:NYT).

WSJ: A joint venture between BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) makes a merger more likely.

WSJ: Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) is falling behind rivals in sales.

WSJ: Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) cut its losses with cost controls.

NYT: An FHA effort to prop up mortgages is putting taxpayers at risk.

NYT: Private equity firms are trying to raise money in China.

NYT: Geithner hope to end the TARP program.

NYT: The Treasury will auction off some of the warrants it received as part of the bank bailout

NYT: The OECD was cautious on its forecast for the global economy.

NYT: France may issue $52 billion in bonds.

NYT: JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) will buy the part of its British banking partner that it does not own.

FT: US short-term interest rates are turning negative as banks move toward safer investments.

FT: Many retailers are pushing smartphone products for the holidays.

FT: The difference in the value that GE and Vivendi put on NBCU could kill a merger with Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA).

Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) says China stocks could rise 30% on liquidity and valuations.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

Douglas A. McIntyre

ETFDesk Daily 11/19/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

etfdesk — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:16:27 +0000

Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?
Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap
John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’
Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!
The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update
The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update
The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer
A yuan-sided argument
Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers
Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets
Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch
VIX of the VIX
The World’s Largest Shopping Mall
BofA Merrill cuts ‘10 global semiconductor growth view
Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt
Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble
Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference
Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise
Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 02:55 AM PST

great chart from The Big Picture blog

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST

Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market. With central banks likely to be net gold purchasers in H2 2009 for the first time since 1988 the same starting gun is ringing out today. The price at which the USD would be fully backed by gold (as it was during the peak of the 70s mania) is $6,300. So there is a case for gold being “cheap.” Moreover, the 70s bull market was facilitated by tight energy markets, overly accommodative central banks and nerv

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:35 AM PST

John Paulson, who scored about $20 billion of profits for his hedge fund between 2007 and early 2009 wagering against the housing market and financial companies, is launching a fund dedicated to buying up shares of gold miners and other bullion-related investments, according to three investors.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:35 AM PST

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; sell iShares MSCI-EAFE; buy UBS E Tracs CMCI Food Tr; buy iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar Total Return Sub Index; buy iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund; buyPIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:12 AM PST

Classic title

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:25 AM PST

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Asia Pacific Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:26 AM PST

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Greater China Fund, Inc.;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:31 AM PST

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Taiwan Greater China Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

A yuan-sided argument

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:59 AM PST

China allowed the yuan to rise by 21% against the dollar in the three years to July 2008, but since then it has more or less kept the rate fixed. As a result, the yuan’s trade-weighted value has been dragged down this year by the sickly dollar, while many other currencies have soared. Since March the Brazilian real and the South Korean won have gained 42% and 36% respectively against the yuan, seriously eroding those countries’ competitiveness.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST

Some retailers are finding ways to profit even in the face of declining sales. On Tuesday, luxury retailer Saks Inc. reported a surprise profit and Target Corp. notched its first rise in year-over-year net income in eight quarters. But both companies reported declines in sales at stores open for a year, and predicted more of the same in the current quarter, which includes Christmas.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 01:14 PM PST

With the Fed in a holding pattern, markets have looked to economic data for their biggest moves in the last six months and that trend is likely to continue, Goldman Sachs economists said. “With the unemployment rate high, we expect the markets to continue to focus on employment data for indications of labor market improvement,” Goldman economists wrote in a research note.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell iShares Russell 2000; buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:17 PM PST

Investors are piling into any commodity they can get their hands on as the dollar crumbles and real assets spike.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/Clear Global Timber Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

VIX of the VIX

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:32 PM PST

The volatility of the CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) in recent days is especially noteworthy as the measure of implied volatility in the S & P 500 Index (SPX) is once again bouncing near year-to-date lows.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The World’s Largest Shopping Mall

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:37 PM PST

A cautionary tale of capitalist hubris. An amazing video from PBS.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

BofA Merrill cuts ‘10 global semiconductor growth view

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:50 PM PST

BofA Merrill Lynch lowered its 2010 growth forecast for global semiconductor industry and downgraded ten chipmakers, including Intel Corp (INTC.O), turning more cautious on the group on expectations of a modest overshoot in global supply chain inventories.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF; sell iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor Index;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:15 AM PST

San Francisco-based Wells Fargo agreed to buy back all auction rate securities it sold through its brokerage unit before Feb. 13, 2008, the association said in a statement. The bank also will pay a $1.9 million fine and reimburse investors who sold their holdings at a discount after the market collapsed.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:42 AM PST

Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach still believes in the long-term China story, but he warns investors to wait for a much-needed market correction first.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF; sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETF; buy UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:53 AM PST

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:00 AM PST

That’s why I recommend you spread your risk and go with a well-diversified, closed-end fund that invests in hundreds of Senior Secured Floating Rate bonds at once. Such an approach ensures the impact of any bankruptcy is minimal. It also provides daily liquidity.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income II;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:03 AM PST

Brazil moved overnight to close a loophole that had allowed investors to avoid a 2 per cent tax on foreign investment in equities and bonds announced last month.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Skandala soruşturma başlatıldı

sporumsu — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:36:14 +0000

TBF Disiplin Kurulu Nalga skandalıyla ilgili Galatasaray Kulübü, iki sporcusu ile altı yönetici ve t

John Mack Describes H-Hour at Morgan Stanley

dbilson — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:04:52 +0000

If you haven’t seen it already, I would recommend you take a look at this speech Morgan Stanley head Coach John Mack gave down at Wharton. It is a blow-by-blow account of what was happening behind the scenes at Morgan Stanley last September after Lehman spit the bit and Morgan was collapsing. It’s great stuff and it gives you a feel for just what was at stake.

Here are a few thoughts I have on this matter:

1) American populists who have uniformly opposed government intervention, TARP and bailouts - whether they be politicians, pundits, Michael Moore, teabaggers – have no idea what they are talking about. Folks, the World’s financial system, which affects everyone here and MILLIONS aborad, was going to collapse. And once that happened, god only knows what would have followed. We were at the abyss and there was nothing staring back. So next time you hear someone rail on about the crimes Paulson and Bernanke committed, remind them that these two probably saved the economy from total ruin.

2) After watching this video, it is clear to me that 6:00 AM, on 9/22/08, was not going to pass without news that either Morgan Stanley had a big new investor or it had been bought by JP Morgan for $2. There was no way that Bernanke and Paulson were going to let that happen and Mack basically confirms as much in this speech. That being said, I am curious where MS and GS would have opened that morning if there hadn’t been a vote of confidence on MS. MS at 2? GS at 20?

3) Mack’s speech fails in one particular area …..he talks about the decision to merge with JP and that it would have resulted in thousands of more job losses for NYC. He questions whether this would have been “good public policy.” John, nice of you to keep your eye on the big picture. Do you really think the world (or NYC) was going to collapse if 10-15K MS employees lost their jobs in a merger? You think public policymakers gave two shits about 15K jobs at a time when financial chaos could have led to job losses in the hundreds of thousands? Sorry John, you were playing in a big game, but Bernanke was playing in the Super Bowl where the stakes were above even your paygrade.

The More Focused, and More Opaque, Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B, BNI, UNP, NSC, GS, GE, TIF, HOG, WMT, COP, XOM, WFC, RSG, DOW, ETN, WBC, MCO, WLP, UNH, GSK, SNY, GCI, WPO)

247wallst — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:59:22 +0000

This was an important week for investment guru and billionaire watchers to see which gurus were holding which stocks. The full public equity holdings of Warren Buffett via Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) were particularly of note, particularly with those B shares under “BRK-B” soon to split and giving a chance for even the less astute ranks of Joe Public to own a piece of the Berkshire dream. Obviously the huge change is via the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI) buyout. As part of this deal, Buffett is exiting Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and exiting Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) stakes of about $600 million and $100 million, respectively, to avoid duplication and internal competition. The rail transport play now accounts for about one-quarter of the total Berkshire Hathaway entity upon closing. But the less obvious position in that Warren Buffett in 2009 has made it clear that there will be a simpler and probably less “stock-hound” version of Berkshire Hathaway ahead.

Buffett has gone higher up the food chain and is likely to be a creditor now inside or to large institutions. We have seen this during the crisis. Buffett negotiated a better deal for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) than the US Government was able to get. Buffett’s preferred stock in Goldman Sachs has a dividend of 10% and is callable at any time at a 10% premium; but Buffett also got warrants to purchase $5 billion of common stock with a strike price of $115.00 per share, exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now), and Buffett would effectively get to pocket $61 per share if he exercised those all today at the market (and with a $2.6 billion warrant profit alone).

The General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) stake was listed only as 7.77 million shares of common stock (about $125 million now), the same as it has been for quarters. Yet last year Buffett came to the rescue with a $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering with a dividend of 10% and warrants to purchase $3 billion of common stock. The preferred is callable after 3-years (2 years now) at a 10% premium; the warrants have a strike price of $22.25 and are exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now).

Two other investments in preferred or note offerings made in the last year during the financial crunch were in Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) in February via 10% senior notes and in Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) with a 15% rate. Neither of these are in the Buffett equity holdings.

Buffett increased his holdings in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to 37.8 million shares versus 19.9 million shares. This could easily be hiked from about $1.9 billion today to almost infinity with its $208 billion market cap. With over 10% officially unemployed in the U.S., Wal-Mart has become the shopping destination of millions more of Americans and that value and thrift trend is not likely to end any time soon.

Then there is the ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) bet that Buffett got his timing very wrong on. He cut his stake again here to 57.4 million shares versus almost 62.5 million shares and still has the tax benefit for selling. He added Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) with a 1.27 million share stake. As Exxon is the largest company by market cap at $357 billion, this is much easier for Buffett to invest into rather than $79 billion market cap today in ConocoPhillips.

The Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) stake which he grew yet again is worth over $8.7 billion, and Buffett could probably insert more money there through time if it gets cheap again. Then there is the new Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) position of 3.625 million shares ($100 million today) where Buffett is just investing alongside buddy Bill Gates now that Gates’ entity has a board seat there and a huge stake.

Then there are the overseas bets, and these are just some:

$2.5 billion into diversified Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd.
$4 billion to buy control of Iscar Metalworking in Israel
$230 million for a 10% stake in BYD for electric batteries in China
$144 million or so stake in Nestle

Buffett lent $4.4 billion to Mars for the Wrigley buyout. He also lent Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) $3 billion for part of the Rohm & Haas deal. As noted earlier, Buffett is going higher up the food chain. In fact, he is almost becoming the default alternative investment bank. And he has cut down and exiting equity positions as well.

Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN), in power management, and WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC), in parts and systems for mostly commercial vehicles, were dropped entirely this last quarter. It seems as though Buffett is also systematically exiting the Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) position now that the business model has changed. He still holds too much there, but maybe better late than never.

Buffett is also not betting against the Obama health care plan as he cut his stakes in both Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) and UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH). It will be interesting to see if Buffett hangs on to those drug company stakes in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), at 1.51 million shares, and Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY), of more than 3.9 million shares.

Then when considering Buffett’s comments about the poor future of print media, you have to wonder if the Oracle of Omaha just won’t take his licks in Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) worth only about $39 million today and Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) worth $730 million today.

It still seems obvious that Buffett would like to hold a large utility as a wholly owned subsidiary. That may be his next ‘whale of a deal’ after he builds his cash back up over $20 billion. Buffett got burned on his dollar bet before, but he is active internationally. The BNSF deal is arguably a China-coal bet rather than an “all-in bet on the future of America,” assuming that is not symbiotic. This now makes Berkshire Hathaway even more of a financial and transport operation, with far less emphasis on public common stock bets. And he is going higher on the food chain. It will alsways be interesting to see how Buffett invests the Berkshire Hathaway fortune. But what is obvious is that he is starting to get out of the way of some bets and make more concentrated bets elsewhere. The new Berkshire Hathaway is more of a financial and transportation operator now… more than ever… that is also acting as private investment banker. The investment changes over the last year are showing more of a penchant for debt and being higher up the food chain than just common stock in the U.S.

This all acts to make Berkshire Hathaway more predictable in operations and even more of a true conglomerate. And it makes the passive investments a bit more opaque.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

Again, here is the full list of Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway US public stock holdings.

JON C. OGG
November 19, 2009

Today's Best Market Rumors (11/19/2009) (BA)(AMTD)(MWW)(NWSA)(AAPL)

247wallst — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:45:42 +0000

Updated throughout the day.

Update 12.50 PM EST: Boeing (NYSE:BA) could lose a $7.5 billion order for fighter planes to Brazil if the US Senate does not confirm Obama’s nominee to be ambassador to the South American country (Bloomberg)

Update 11.08 AM EST: TDAmeritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD) may be buying E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) (Omaha World Herald)

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has lost a large number of its most talented people to hedge funds. (Bloomberg)

The Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) tablet PC launch date has been delayed until late 2010. (Digitimes)

Monster.com (NASDAQ:MWW) may be taken over by News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA) or Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (WSJ)

Blackstone’s (NYSE:BX) Pinnacle Brands may buy Birds Eye (CNBC)

Sony (NYSE:SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Nintendo are working on ways to keep market share as smart phones come after their market share. (BusinessWeek)

Time Warner’s (NYSE:TWX) AOL is seeking to buy-out 2,500 employees as it is spun off by its parent. (various)

Citigroup (NYSE:C) may sell its auto lending group. (NYPost)

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on key analyst calls, top day trader alerts, mergers and acquisitions, Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

For more information on Citi, Microsoft, Sony, and Google check the 24/7 Wall St 500.

Douglas A. McIntyre

ETFDesk Daily 11/18/2009

etfdesk — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 03:59:20 +0000

Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance
Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped
Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009
Gold – the next bubble?
Goldman Sachs: “V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely”
TF Oct Monthly Update
Altman Group hosted CEF conference
Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A “Tsunami Unfolding”
The Great Wallop : Chimerica
Explorers’ Self-Deflating Gas Cushion
Hands warns governments on banks
Africa: Corruption Perception – Nigeria’s Rating Worsens
Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains
It’s Quiet…Too Quiet
U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts
the Geography of the Recession
Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction
The Case for the Chinese Yuan

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 02:06 AM PST

Great Info from the Council on Foreign Relations

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR S&P China ETF;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:01 AM PST

This data appears to be at odds with the inflationary environment gold, commodities and equities have been giving off. Perhaps more important in this data is the fact that it shows investors are simply moving out of dollars and into real assets – not as a sign of inflation worries loom, but as investors lose faith in the longevity of the United States and the paper we print our money on.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell PowerShares DB Oil Fund; buyUltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:42 AM PST

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher suggested yesterday that the Q3 real GDP print will be taken down from 3.5% at an annual rate to 2.5% ? despite massive government stimulus. (Is that all you get for your money?) And the Philadelphia Fed survey of professional forecasters shows that this collection of 41 economists just took down their 2010 Q1 GDP call to 2.3% from 2.5% and for next year?s Q2 to 2.4% from 2.8%.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell S&P 500 SPDR;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gold – the next bubble?

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:42 AM PST

WHAT are the preconditions for a bubble? Perhaps there are four: easy credit conditions, a significant trend-breaking event, the lack of plausible valuation measures and an appealing story.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Sachs: “V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely”

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:55 AM PST

Despite the sharp pickup in real GDP growth since the dark days of early 2009, we estimate that real final demand—net of the boost from fiscal policy—is still contracting at an annual rate of around 1% in the second half of 2009. Although we expect a moderate recovery of around 2% by the second half of 2010, such a 3-percentage-point improvement would be insufficient to offset the loss of 4-5 percentage points of stimulus from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. Hence, real G

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sellS&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

TF Oct Monthly Update

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:10 AM PST

The Thai Capital Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Thai Capital Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Altman Group hosted CEF conference

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:22 AM PST

Altman Group hosted CEF conference…Here is link for replay if interested

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A “Tsunami Unfolding”

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 09:18 AM PST

Today, Panzner calls a V-shaped recovery “ridiculous,” says commercial real estate is a bubble sure to burst, and is fearful that there’s far too much speculation on commodities, risky stocks and emerging markets. In short, he says “the world is a riskier place and will continue to stay that way going forward.”

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund; sell PowerShares DB Oil Fund; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sellstreetTRACKS Gold Trust; sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Great Wallop : Chimerica

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST

A FEW years ago we came up with the term “Chimerica” to describe the combination of the Chinese and American economies, which together had become the key driver of the global economy. With a combined 13 percent of the world’s land surface and around a quarter of its population, Chimerica nevertheless accounted for a third of global economic output and two-fifths of worldwide growth from 1998 to 2007.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Explorers’ Self-Deflating Gas Cushion

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 01:42 PM PST

With producers still collectively pursuing growth, the chances of a rebound in gas prices next year looks more remote than ever. Yet the S&P Supercomposite oil and gas E&P index—weighted 69% to gas production—commands a forward price/earnings multiple of 22 times. Such confidence is the very thing causing the industry to drill its way into trouble.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund; sell United States Natural Gas Fund, LP;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Hands warns governments on banks

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 10:58 PM PST

Guy Hands, head of private equity house Terra Firma, warned on Wednesday that unless governments pushed banks to restructure $7,000bn of leveraged loans that are due to mature by 2014, the US and Europe could face the “Japanese problem” of zero growth.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell ING Prime Rate Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Africa: Corruption Perception – Nigeria’s Rating Worsens

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:08 PM PST

Nigeria dropped nine places to 130th position out of the 180 countries ranked on the global Corruption Perceptions Index Nigera allocation is 17% of AFK

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:11 PM PST

Bing search engine continues to make incremental gains in search share, with new numbers bringing Bing’s share closer to double digits. SWH – 21% MSFT

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Software HOLDRS;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

It’s Quiet…Too Quiet

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:21 PM PST

In that vein, Pat Neal, Jefferies’ stock and derivatives strategist, is telling clients to use the lull in the VIX to hedge stock portfolios. He sees a hidden disconnect between quiescent VIX and its component stocks that could spell trouble for stocks.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:33 PM PST

Almost 70 percent of consumers surveyed said they wanted to see discounts of at least 50 percent before they would buy something for the holidays, according to the survey by America’s Research Group.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

the Geography of the Recession

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:40 PM PST

very interesting map of unemployment

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:16 AM PST

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — Mark Mobius said stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to rise by 30 to 40 percent within three to four years as higher economic growth and lower government debt spurs corporate earnings.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; buy iShares MSCI-Brazil; buy iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; buy SPDR S&P BRIC 40 ETF; buy Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust; buy iPath MSCI India Index ETN; buyiShares MSCI BRIC Index Fund; buy Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, Inc;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Case for the Chinese Yuan

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:38 AM PST

Investors may look back at the liquidity crisis of 2008 as the inflection point that affirmed China as a global economic superpower. During this time, the majority of emerging market currencies suffered as investors fled higher-risk currencies. However, the Chinese yuan largely tracked the safe haven flight to the U.S. dollar, and investments providing exposure to movement in the yuan generated a positive return and exhibited low volatility during the most volatile market environ

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Risks in Geithner's Call For More Lending

247wallst — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:16:50 +0000

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner spoke this morning and has effectively called for banks which have received government bail-out funds to boost their lending activities. Geithner noted that a lack of lending and strict limits to credit might act as a buffer against a continued recovery.

The Obama administration is trying to come up with new ways to turn the credit back on for small businesses. It is no wonder that Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) launched its initiative this morning. The firm’s public relations and financial relations campaign is a $500 million 10,000 Small Businesses initiative aimed at fostering small business growth and job-creation for up to 10,000 small businesses. The company plans to offer business education, mentorships, business networks, and capital.

Geithner noted that banks need “to be working with us, not against recovery.” He also noted that it was taxpayers saving the banks rather than their great intelligence and efforts that has led to the return of bank earnings, and he said banks have some responsibility and are obliged to assist in the recovery of communities. But, Geithner also defended banking sector earnings. It has been noted how lending standards have tightened month after month. Where this gets interesting though is in evaluating credit risks and interpolating that data for risks ahead.

For starters, the Treasury has printed more money than was previously imaginable, and much of that has to offset bad loans and bad assets in the future. It is also easy to see where the risk is on a broad double-dip basis…. If the banks revert back anything at all close to the old lending standards then there will be a system flush with fake money. That would ramp up the FOMC inflation expectation time line exponentially.

Another issue that is worth thought here is that if banks go back to turning the credit lines and loans back on, then they are taking a double jeopardy approach to what is on the asset side of their respective balance sheets. If the banks are valuing all new loans at par and those do not perform properly, then it is only going to work against the current and future book value of bad loans that are still on the books. It also seems that banks can stomach the criticism of being far too tight in credit rather than having to answer to regulators and politicians in the coming years about why the suddenly starting putting their balance sheets at risk all over again with a flood of new loans.

It is probably a slam-dunk argument that bank’s are too tight right now in their lending. But the banks are also having to keep their books as solid as a rock right now. Many politicians and pundits are already calling for a repeal or semi-repeal of the banking reforms that took place from the late 1980’s into this decade. Then there is the too-big-to-fail notion that the banks have to fight all day and every day.

If no lending or very low lending continues then will keep a recovery from happening. But it also keeps the assets of the bank from being worth less or becoming at further risk. A sudden robust return to lending will create inflation as that velocity of money picks up and will also put the banks at risk in late 2010 or beyond for a whole new slate of bad loans. A happy medium is going to be very hard to find in the near-term.

JON C. OGG
November 18, 2009

Corporate America's Biggest Problem?

santiagochaher — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:18:19 +0000

by Jennifer Schonberger, for The Motley Fool, November 18, 2009.

One year after the government bailed out Wall Street, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) are awarding record billions in bonuses. Clearly, compensation practices are just as out of line now as they were before the financial crisis. But compensation is just one part of the larger issue of corporate governance weighing on companies across America.

According to Nell Minow, editor and co-founder of The Corporate Library, a research firm that focuses on corporate governance, agency costs and conflicts of interest are the inherent problems in corporate governance today.

“If you’re going to have a large, complex organization, and you’re going to take capital from people who are not going to be in the boardroom all the time, what can we do to ensure those directors are as vitally concerned with the long-term success of the organization? That’s what corporate governance is all about,” Minow said on a recent visit to Motley Fool headquarters…(continue reading)

In Flagranti Presents 'Electric Fling' Out Now

gobangclub — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:55:39 +0000

1) G&S – Portable Control
2) Rory Phillips – Solar Breakfast
3) In Flagranti – Erector Set
Out Now on 12″ and Digital on Codek…..

Buy from Itunes

Buy from Juno Download

Buy 12″ from Phonica

Buy 12″ from Juno

Electric Fling out this week!

gobangclub — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:15:24 +0000

Out Now on 12″ and Digital on Codek…..

Buy from Itunes

Buy from Juno Download

Buy 12″ from Phonica

Buy 12″ from Juno

Media Digest 11/18/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

247wallst — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:07:47 +0000

Reuters: Thain regrets nothing he did at Merrill Lynch and during its merger with Bank of America (NYSE:BAC).

Reuters: Trump put his support to the bondholders of his casino business.

FT: A Chinese court ruled against Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) in an intellectual property case.

Reuters: Almost 15,000 Americans admitted to offshore tax cheating.

Reuters: Hershey (NYSE:HSY) and Ferrero are in talks about buying Cadbury.

Reuters: House Democrats are advancing their “too big to fail” legislation.

Reuters: Fed officials differ on the recovery’s pace.

Reuters: Citigroup (NYSE:C) upped the base salaries of some executives.

Reuters: RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM), maker of the Blackberry, will stick to its current strategy.

Reuters: The CEO of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) apologized for the firm’s role in the credit crisis.

Reuters: US consumers expect deep holiday discounts.

Reuters: Microsoft announced it new cloud computing plans.

WSJ: Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) are being hurt by commercial loan defaults affecting transactions for apartment buildings.

WSJ: Goldman Sachs and Buffett have put together a program to help small businesses.

WSJ: Federal regulators are putting together plans to get cheap broadband to all Americans.

WSJ: The head of the IMF said a stronger yuan would help global economics.

WSJ: Delta (NYSE:DAL) and its alliance of airlines will offer JAL over $1 billion in funding.

WSJ: Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE:MTU) will $11 billion in stock.

WSJ: Vivendi and GE (NYSE:GE) are setting terms for the buyout of the European company’s piece of NBCU.

WSJ: GM’s plan of Opel is still not set.

WSJ: Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) will buy Semitool.

WSJ: The FBI thinks terrorist are planning cyber attacks.

WSJ: There are still too many houses in the US to support a market recovery.

WSJ: A government report says Goldman Sachs would have suffered massive losses if AIG (NYSE:AIG) had not honored financial commitments backed by the government.

WSJ: Pimco will set up a business to help assess bond risk.

WSJ: New ETFs offer investors the chance to put money into the market like hedge funds do.

WSJ: S.C. Johnson may bid against P&G (NYSE:PG) for Sara Lee’s (NYSE:SLE) air freshener business.

WSJ: CEOs say access to credit is key to job growth.

WSJ: US power companies are teaming with Chinese operations to get access to new technology.

WSJ: Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) put a poison pill into effect.

NYT: The NY State comptroller said Wall St. is on track for record profits.

NYT: Congress is pushing medical schools on the ghost writing of research.

NYT: A-Power Energy of China and the U.S. Renewable Energy Group are changing a wind farm deal because of political pressure.

FT: Apollo is preparing an NYSE listing.

FT: Sony (NYSE:SNE) is reworking its $5 billion ad budget.

FT: Banks face ratings downgrades on their bonds.

FT: A US task force will be set up to fight fraud.

Bloomberg: Private equity funding is dropping sharply.

Bloomberg: There are new warnings that China faces asset bubbles.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Soros Fund Holdings

247wallst — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:52:08 +0000

Yesterday Soros Fund Management Filed a 13-F outlining the fund’s long portfolio as of September 30th, 2009. The total value of the holdings reported in the filing is $6,198,089. Twenty holdings represented roughly 50% of the value. Soros Fund Management is a hedge fund management company that invests primarily based on macroeconomic analysis. It should be noted that the fund’s equity portfolio likely contains significant short positions, which are not reported in 13-F filings. Some of the positions in the filing may be in place as hedges or part of a multi-part trade, rather than a directional bet. With that in mind, a glance at this firm’s major holdings provides clues to its macroeconomic outlook.

Total stakes in Petroleo Brasileo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) represent 9.23% of the value of the positions reported in the filing, with just over 13 million shares held. This is down from by 2.3 million from the fund’s last filing.

A stake in Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) represents 4.47% of the value of the protfolio reported in the filing. Soros Fund managament held 5,886,40 shares, up by 1700 from the fund’s last filing.

Potash Corp (NYSE: POT) represents 4.3% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 2,948,421 shares as of September 30th, up 971,386 since the fund’s last filing.

LSI Corporation (NYSE: LSI) represents 4.05% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 249,687,000 shares as of September 30th, up 600,000 since the fund’s last filing.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) represents 3.91% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 2,450,320 shares as of September 30th, up 2,445,420 since the fund’s last filing.

Linear Technology Corp (NASDAQ: LLTC) represents 3.68% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 277,978,000 shares as of September 30th, up 4,500,000 since the fund’s last filing.

Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP) represents 2.73% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 6,113,815 shares as of September 30th, down 412,585 since the fund’s last filing.

Flextronics International (NASDAQ: FLEX)) represents 2.47% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 157,805,000 shares as of September 30th, up 14,166,000 since the fund’s last filing.

Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) represents 2.24% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 4,578,953 shares as of September 30th, up 3,984,100 since the fund’s last filing.

Lawson Software Inc (NASDAQ: LWSN) represents 2.2% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 143,028,000 shares as of September 30th, up 128,948,000 since the fund’s last filing.

AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) represents 1.83% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 4,209,497 shares as of September 30th, up 3,418,497 since the fund’s last filing.

InterOil Corp (NYSE: IOC) represents 1.79% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 2,817,650 shares as of September 30th, up 957,650 since the fund’s last filing.

DirectTV Group Inc (NASDAQ: DTV) represents 1.77% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 3,984,666 shares as of September 30th, up 3,797,66 since the fund’s last filing.

Best Buy Inc (NYSE: BBY) represents 1.75% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 2,892,800 shares as of September 30th, up 1,103,300 since the fund’s last filing.

Weatherford International Ltd (NYSE: WFT) represents 1.65% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 4,922,313 shares as of September 30th, up 3,180,970 since the fund’s last filing.

Suncor Energy Inc (NYSE: SU) represents 1.47% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 2,643,100 shares as of September 30th, up 1,958,700 since the fund’s last filing.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) represents 1.23% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 415,100 shares as of September 30th, unchanged since the fund’s last filing.

Walgreen Co (NYSE: WAG) represents 1.03% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 1,699,600 shares as of September 30th, up 242,700 since the fund’s last filing.

Wal-Mart Store Inc (NYSE: WMT) represents 0.88% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 1,116,040 shares as of September 30th, up 1,026,330 since the fund’s last filing.

Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) represents 0.21% of the fund’s reported portfolio. The fund held 25,000 shares as of September 30th, down 105,800 since the fund’s last filing.

Garrett W. McIntyre