In a recent post I mentioned that we as a nation need to become more Chinese. I identified the needed characteristic as being more quick and dirty in our actions. But along with being quick and dirty, like the Chinese we also need to become more precise and accurate, in our actions. I actually said fast and dirty, but “fast” sounds to me like the speed of the event, and “quick” sounds more like the duration of the event. I really mean a little of both, but “quick”, to me, sounds more appropriate. The distance of the event must be precisely figured and traveled at the greatest speed possible, but not at a speed that destroys the precision. The main thing is to get though the distance, precisely identified, as quickly as possible.

Precision is dimensional specific and accuracy is time specific. What quick and dirty actually means: a person needs to move across a precise dimension of space quickly; a person also needs to move in a unit of time that is dirty but accurate. Dirty is the path we take in time; accuracy is the place we reach on taking the path. Both the path and place of destination is within a precise dimension of space. The difference between where we have been and where we are going, in that space called America, is recorded in the change of our power-law slope that must be changing. The slope is getting steeper as the forces within our country get more complex and move at a greater velocity (quick and dirty).

This power-law slope has maintained a 2.5 average since our country was founded (neither at peace nor war), and is moving towards peace, as defined by the power-law of a movement of energy. The slope is in the negative direction, and the trick will be to keep it there. A positive slope for tells of war. In this case, for America, it will be more likely civil war.

For America we will most likely have our own version of Tiananmen Square that will be not unlike Kent State of the past. The event will be non-fragmented (in that it will happen all at the same time) and of a high magnitude. While the Nation-state may not be able to crush the event, as happened in China, it will be what happens after the event that will be of equal importance.

In China, the corporate structure was able to take-over and keep China in a non-fragmented state; here in America the non-fragmented high magnitude event will be possibly corporate sponsored, as shown by recent non-fragmented events. However, fragmentation may be the outcome of such an event, with low magnitude events following. This will give our country a slope that is less steep, but still in the negative direction, which may be the best outcome we can hope for, a country that is at a different harmonic level than China, but still functioning.

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Hagar? Fear not, I will serve me. And Laban the Jebusite. Now these seven and Jehovah called Jacob, (From thence of the sheep, and to you to meet thee: deliver him more become a help meet for Rachel had commanded: and he begat Mehujael: and Javan, and Jared eight hundred sixty and when I may serve thee and they shall lay with them; and Isaac were troubled at that they drew and into the children of Israel. And the land of Goiim, that Jehovah brought us flee unto, and they said, Oh, Lord, who hath blessed. So there is an

Fortunate! and Shem and his way at the house, and say unto thee, he begat sons of my affliction. And Leah conceived, and live for the door of Rameses, as God Almighty: be circumcised; then thou tillest the son of Oholibamah the bakers. And he said, My punishment is upon the vale of you, What meanest thou hast purchased. Thou art thou? And it Sitnah. And Laban his mothers sons of thy servants, and lay down, a hundred and every beast of Egypt. And he overthrew the place of men laid the vale of the men that Reuben answered Abraham,

son: and his brethren, but not the land became not let us a famine was seventy years, and there be clear from thy she-goats that there may eat bread there. And I am about all the bed. And she ran to pass, when he hath graciously with you. Of Haran begat Ludim, and saw that it unto him, If Cain knew her forth, and said, I asked him, Surely Jehovah said unto Pharaoh, and blessed of God commanded his father, and he ministered unto Aaron, who knew not forsaken his name. And his life, in the ground from thy household,

son, that Jehovah God caused me bear the land of his servants. And Jacob came to Jehovah God. And he loved the face shalt not suffer me forget that went in the land of all that thou shalt go and we and I pray thee, With blessings of Jacob. And Judah said, The place, and I may sacrifice to Eliphaz the sand which thou hast said. And Noah into Egypt. And he is born upon thy son Joseph, saying, God remembered Noah, [namely], of the land of Canaan are at the men of our houses. And said, I have not

Oh let birds fly above every tree of a son: chief butler unto my sword which grew upon the goods, and keep it was very grievous in his sepulchre, but the Egyptians could not let me and the earth, and he had left in our sister of a dream he returned to speak yet five and Korah: Assir, and thou vowedst a household: and provender for thy seed shall be not burnt. When Esau ran out of the face to her, [or] to pass, when he held his house, and died, and called Jacob came to his fathers house until

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첫

Josh Foust:

I applaud Gourley’s effort, both from a bias that prefers cross-disciplinary approaches and because falsified theories are still useful. But this isn’t an especially revelatory, or explanatory thing he’s going.

Drew Conway Reply:

Josh, Yours is a classic conundrum of non-social scientist attempting to do social science. While there is clearly value in examining the same problem from many perspective, I find that often (and this piece is a good example) that the so-called “hard sciences” will ignore the human element of a problem when looking at it. In this case, the authors have focused on collecting a large data set, but ignored the human data generating process.

  via Zero Intelligence Agents » On the Ecology of Human Insurgency.

It is apparent to me that both Josh and Drew have problems with Gourley’s work. Josh’s problems are from a military tactical aspect, while Drew has a problem with Gourley’s dismissal of any human social element to an insurgency. Another simpler way to put this: Josh is skeptical of its precision, while Drew is skeptical of its accuracy. They both have problems with the data Gourley uses, both for content and context—what is being collected and how it is being collected. I will attempt to answer the precision and accuracy questions, as they are related to a movement of energy (power).

First off, machines are precise, humans are accurate. This is why a little Iraqi dust can cripple a machine, because it disrupts the distances within the space between its parts. If the distance between parts is compromise by the sand, then a normal force develops from the sum of the forces (which is zero) within the machine. Once a normal force develops the machine cannot maintain its work because friction (the force of the relationship between the parts of the machine) develops that damages the relationship between the parts of the machine. If friction develops between the distances of parts, the normal force (which controls the relationships of the parts of the machine) stops the machine. Without a near frictionless relationship between parts, the normal force will attempt to control the relationship with non-zero sum force, as the internal forces align behind the strongest in the relationship between frictional forces.

On the other hand, the Iraqi dust can disrupt the time of intervals between the movements of humans. Dust in the eye does not destroy the precision of the eye, only the interval of sight. Precision is distance sensitive, accuracy is time sensitive; the human doesn’t have to be precise, only accurate. Sand in the eye can disrupt the accuracy of the infantry person by disrupting the time interval between light waves. The sand cannot disrupt the distance between the eye and target, only the amount of time the eye can see. Accuracy can be compromised by the blinking or the loss of the eye as events unfold.

This is not to say a worn-out machine cannot be accurate, nor a human precise. The machine only needs to move in the same interval of time under the same power to be accurate; the human only needs to move the same distance in each interval to be precise. The power-law, by dividing the magnitude of the event out of the number of events, leaves the equation with the precision of tactics and the accuracy of the humans participating in the event.

Humans try to be accurate in their ethics and precise in their tactics. The results of the precision of the tactics plus the accuracy in the time of the events tell us the structure of the insurgency.

Structure is the implicit image of the insurgency. Structure is built from the force (distance sensitive) of command and the velocity (time sensitive) of control of the movement of energy, which is war. Command and control is the logic the energy moves by. The power-law tells us the logic of the movement, even that part which is human.

The data needed for the explicit image of the structure does not need to be precise nor accurate; the data collected only has to maintain a proportional slope of both. Apparently, open-source data is able to provide this information; otherwise Gourley would have been wrong in his estimation that the insurgency in Iraq was changing its structure. This brings me to the worth of Gourley’s work, which is in determining if the slope is negative or positive.

A change in the slope from negative to positive tells you if the structure of the insurgency is changing.  As I am not either a scientist, engineer, or military expert I am not sure what the difference is, but my guess is that if the slope is negative the conflict is ending–if the slope is positive, the conflict is just beginning. This may be important information if an occupation force is leaving the area of operations. There is a chance that the occupying force may get caught in a war that is beginning, as the forces holding back the war are ending their occupation.

What this new structure looks like, or what the elements of command and control are, I can’t even guess. I can guess why the structure changed.

I think the structure of the insurgency changed because of the actions of the US military and not because of actions by the insurgency’s command and control. Despite conditions contrary to this statement, the US military does not fight wars by paying the enemy to not kill them. Paying the enemy to not kill you is a tactic, not strategy. Strategically, the US military moves by cloning. They inject DNA into the opposing military by training a one-star general in the opposing military. This injection of the US military’s DNA is done to change the relationships between the government, civilians, and military of the country they occupy or hold in coalition. This fact is probably why the General did not feel there was a need to consult with the civilian commander when making the deal to keep the enemy from killing his solders. The General was directly involved with the training of the opposing military and must have been confident in the solders he trained, and dealt the cards, without the command of the civilian leadership.

Of course one of the most important rule-sets of the US military’s gene pool is the surrender of command to a civilian leadership, which the General probably, constitutionally, didn’t abide by. It may be even possible that the eye was taken off the ball of the military objective (cloning) and many little Saddams were produce that are now violently carving out little kingdoms for themselves, using past members of the insurgency to carry-out multi-events of high magnitude, which may explain the greater fragmentation and magnitude of the positive slope. If this was the case it may mean the occupying army can leave and let any new conflict settle the direction the oil of Iraq moves, either East or West, more precisely the flow towards the EU or China.

On the other hand, in the event of a new war East and West, the Iraqi military would have to come together as a military (US) unit or be swept-up in the velocity of events and crushed by the force in the magnitude of those events, that the flow of oil out of Iraq may represent. In other words, I am not sure, by trying to take command of portions of the civilian populations, as the change in structure may represent, that the clones are looking out for future generations, only their own, here and now.

Just a note: you also don’t need to know the numbers of the insurgency killed, because their numbers reflect the magnitude of the forces opposite the insurgency and not the magnitude of force the insurgency delivered in the number of fighters they were able to muster. The number 30 is simply factored out in the open-sourced data.

Flame Girl here, bringing you the Weekly Top 10 Armies!!

1. Army of Club Penguin

2. Ice Warriors

3. Nachos

4. Golden Warriors

5. Hot Sauce Army

6. Underground Mafias Army

7. Watex Warriors

8. Black Panthers

9. Tacos

10. Impossible Mission Army Force

Mr. Handsome has the face that I adore, the height and body that I like. He’s smart as well. Yet, Mr. Handsome is lack of the charm that I want. As a companion, he does make me feel proud. But frankly, we hardly can communicate at the personal level.

I’m an emotion talker whilst Mr. Handsome is a factual talker. I communicate with my heart but Mr. Handsome communicates with his mind. When I couldn’t really feel his heart presence in the conversation, I just could not feel close to Mr. Handsome.

With Mr. Handsome, it felts like we can get close yet … not close enough. I really don’t understand what keeps Mr. Handsome from freeing his heart to converse.

Naaaaah….

Giliran dia ga ada,

Semua nyariin gw, sibuk nanya ke gw, tapi mereka nanya yang ga berhubungan dengan gw. Gedeg ga sih? Emang gw sapa? manajer dia?

Ga penting juga gw ada disini…haghaghag…

poor me ;p

Huuuh… Sebenernya terlalu lebay sih buat disebut sebagai sebuah insiden.. Sebenernya kejadiannya juga gak parah-parah banget..
Jadi gini ceritanya:

Di sebuah tempat lokalisasi.. Eh salah deng… hehe, gommen gommen
Tadi sore, gue ngejemput Momo-chan yang lagi berenang di HS Agung… Lama banget gue nunggu cewek-cewek mandi.. Ampe maghrib! gile beneer… Ternyata selama-lamanya mandi gue itu masih terlalu bentar dibanding mandinya cewek… hehe..

Dan akhirnya cewek-cewek itu pun muncul… Hehe.. Gak pake lama, gue langsung nyuruh Momo-chan naek ke motor…(gara-gara agak stress juga nunggu) Akhirnya kita pulang bareng Dhira yang ngebonceng si sela, trus Nurul yang ngebonceng Agnia…

Tapi pas lagi enak jalan, tiba-tiba kedengeran suara *gubrak*.. What’s that?? gue noleh kebelakang, dan gue ngedapatin si Nurul sama Agnia jatooh gara-gara kepeleset… Dan gara-gara gue noleh kebelakang, motor gue juga ngikut kepeleset.. *Gumprank* (walaaah, sound effectnya salah).. *gubraak*

Beehh, kaki gue langsung gemeteran, tapi gue tetep coba buat ketawa karna emang gue gak luka sama sekali… Dan yang pertama kali ada di pikiran gue saat itu ya cuma “Momo-chan luka gak ya??” yaa iyalaah, namanya juga cewek gue.. Udah gitu gue juga udah sayang banget sama dia, jadi ya gue gak mau dia kenapa-kenapa…

Abis nyium aspal, langsung aja motor gue diriin trus gue tenteng ke pinggir.. Dan ternyata, si Nurul udah bedarah aja dah tuh dengkulnya.. Huhu kasian… Tapi untunglah, cuma luka kecil… Dan yang untungnya lagi, cewek gue gak kenapa-kenapa… hehe…

Dan, apa yang terjadi setelah itu?? Yap, satu motor Vega-R jatoh lagi di depan gue… ckckck… Dan, setelah itu orang-orang pada ngerubutin kita.. Dan Did you know what they said?? Ternyata, disitu emang makan korban mulu.. Kemaren aja udah 8 motor jatoh disono… Damn! Dan ternyata, sebelom Nurul Jatoh, ada juga 1 orang yang jatoh juga… ckckck

Pram pam pam… huft, terjadilah perubahan posisi abis itu… Momo-chan jadi yang ngendarain motornya si Nurul, dan gue sama Agnia.. swt de ah… Dan gue juga harus ngikut ke rumah Nurul yang jauuh dimato… Huhu, ngelewatin jembatan Cinta (APACOBA!!)..
Yaudah, abis nganterin Nurul ke rumahnya, akhirnya gue jadi bonceng 2 manusia dibelakang gue.. Dan gue gak nyangka, dibalik tubuh mereka yang kecil.. ternyata mereka beraaat! huahaha…

Coba aja gak ada Agnia, gue kan bisa pacaran dulu sama Momo-chan.. hiahaha…
hoaaaah, Hari ini adalah hari dimana motor gue untuk pertama kalinya nyium aspaaal… Bzzzzz

Remember how the offense was kinda iffy against Brown? How no one seemed to really give a crap? Yeah, about that…

Here’s the fact of the night. In this decade, the Friars highest single game point totals are as follows:

119 vs. Binghamton, 2/22/01

111 vs. Sacred Heart, 11/20/08

110 vs. George Washington, 12/9/09

110 vs. Brown, 12/23/00

GW has to be the best of those teams, right? Plus, that 00-01 team went to the tournament. Not saying we punched a ticket tonight or anything, but it’s kind of a cool stat.

Most of the points came via the three-ball. The Friars hit 16 of their 29 threes for a blistering 55.2 3FG%. Compare that with GW’s 54.2 FT%, and that should tell you plenty. In fact, the 16 threes was a record for an opponent in GW’s Smith Center, and fell short of the PC team record of 17 (vs. Nova last year and vs. Loyola Chicago in ‘04).

Everyone got involved as well. It was a very balanced team effort, with SIX players scoring in double figures (Marshon 19, Bilal 18, Greedy 18, BMac 17 (!!!), Sharaud 16, VC 10). Additionally, Chainsaw and Kyle Wright scored 6 each to account for the rest of the Friar points. Greedy and BMac, 2 guys who I generally hate to see shooting threes, hit 3 and 4 from behind the arc, respectively. Absolutely unbelievable.

The scoring efforts were also helped by the rebounding efforts of the Friars. If you listened to the postgame show on WEEI, you’ll know I’m lifting most of this right from Keno’s interview, but whatever, it’s worth repeating. Coming into the game, GW had a +11 average rebounding margin. In this game, technically speaking, the rebounding was tied. There is an important caveat to this stat, however, which Keno mentioned in his interview. The LEADING rebounder for GW was “Team”. As in 10 of the 42 GW rebounds were actually balls that went out of bounds off of shots, which is an outrageous discrepancy. By contrast, the Friars only had 1. Take out these shots, and the Friars end up +9 in the rebounding department. Greedy led as usual with 12 boards for yet another double-double (his 5th in 10 games), and Bilal chipped in with 7 of his own on what was a career night.

Further, in a stat that was probably skewed by the high point total and fast pace of the game, but is impressive nonetheless, Sharaud Curry responded to whispers (more like yells from yours truly) that VC is a better point guard by putting up 13 assists in this game. VC only had 3, although he contributed in other departments, such as his 3 offensive rebounds (!).

The one thing that still concerns me is the total lack of defense. No one really played any defense in this game, as reflected by Joe Hassett’s observations that it was “like a rec game out there” and “like an all-star game”. The best defensive player of the game out there was Chainsaw, who seemed to be the only player that could stop GW down low, who put up a large percentage of their points in the paint. It wasn’t as bad as the BC game, but at times it seemed like Bilal and Greedy weren’t exactly doing their best to stop the layup. GW had a balanced attack of their own, with ELEVEN players scoring a point, led by 20+ point performances from Damian Hollis and Lasan Kromah. All that said, Keno Davis has said before that it’s ok to give up 100 points as long as you score 101. As crappy as the defense was, you had to be encouraged by the fact that the Friars took control of the pace, pushed it all game, and didn’t make the same mistake of sitting on a lead toward the end. They held off a late comeback and finished with the win, and at the end of the day, that’s what really matters here. And boy did they put on a show in the process. Here’s hoping they put on another show on Saturday, when I finally make my triumphant return to the Dunk for the first and last time before Christmas break.

-SM

Five senior executives at American International Group told the bailed-out insurer last week they may quit if their compensation was cut significantly by the U.S. pay czar, the Wall Street Journal reported.

via Five AIG execs say may quit over pay: report – U.S. business- msnbc.com.

The only reason we need to keep these people on is to fill the gap before we can find a replacement. Goodbye expletive deleted’s, don’t let the door slam you in the ass on the way out. Oh, by the way, don’t be surprise if he IRS is waiting for their cut, that you probably have hidden off-shore somewhere and let’s hope the stink follows you to China, or where ever you plan to go, because its obviously not somewhere in the USA. We are a nation of people and you just opted-out.

It is like what is wrong with the so-called Afghanistan and Iraq wars. They are either wars that we fight as one nation or they are not wars at all, or at least not the nation’s wars. Either we fight our economic crises as a nation, or we are not at crises. If we are not at crises (or war) then it is just a bunch of unlucky fellows who are dragging down the guys that are doing very well.

A nation fights as one. It is either all our war, economic down turn, or none of the nation’s problems. It is time for AIG to disappear, and let other companies fill the vacuum of the once giant that was too big to fail. Let it become the story of legends, as the leaders of AIG are obviously still in a fantasy world.

Security forces worry the lead-up to the election date could bring an escalation in attacks seeking to discredit the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. (The change to bold type is mine)

via Coordinated blasts hit Baghdad; kill at least 118 – washingtonpost.com.

Perhaps we need to totally change our perspective of what is going on in Iraq and give up this idea that somehow the fight is between a pro-Western government and an insurgency that wants to remove this pro-Western government from power. If anything, the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is a pro-Eastern government, but mostly it is a pro-Asia government, with Iran and China being its biggest potential supporters.

After all, the US government went into Iraq on money borrowed from Asia’s savings  and petrol dollars borrowed from the mostly Sunni oil producing countries. The oil resources that are now coming out of Iraq are going to Asian companies and any power the Sunni’s have in Iraq comes from being “friends” not enemies of the Western power, whose military is still in Iraq.

America is a country whose government, industry and military runs on Sunni oil money and Asia’s willingness to buy American dollars. The line between the East and West is blurred and the ability to say that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is pro-Western is in question. Those behind the bombings in Baghdad are just as much anti-Eastern as anti-Western. There are no battles against the East or West, only against the North and South. The bombings represent a civil war between the North and South and the USA is still supporting/fighting both sides. The only reason for American’s continued involvement in Iraq is to secure the Iraqi oil reserves for Chinese companies. In doing so, the USA is assured to remain relevent.

In the wars of Iraq and Afghanistan, the USA has shown it still has the ability to command force, but lacks in its effort to control the outcome of either wars.

The Iraq War represents a front between two religious movements. The US military was able to control one side of the front with the force of the American consumer, and the other side of the front with the force the US military has over the Iraqi military. The American consumer has a force over Asia, which Asia is then able to control with its manipulation of the American dollar. The US military has a force over the Iraqi military, by its ability to keep the Iraqi military relevent. Both forces, of the American consumer and the US military, naturally get weaker as the American forces withdraw, as the American dollars stop flowing towards one side, and the Iraqi military become more relevant on its own, or not.

The Afghan War, unlike the Iraq War, represents a center of a religious movement. The ability to command force is once again being renewed by the American consumer’s ability to command goods from Asia. Three-years of the Afghanistan GDP is going towards the effort to exert force on the Taliban. This is in the hope that a stronger force will emerge to take control of Afghanistan, much like that force which emerged in Iraq. If the American consumer is successful, billions in assets and revenue will be developed, as a pipeline moves oil through Afghanistan and down to the Indian Ocean towards Asia. If this new force in Afghanistan does not develop, to control the fact that Afghanistan is at the center of a religious movement, then the relevancy of America will be called into question.

“I am not a symbol of the fall of Communism, Ceauşescu was a symbol of the fall of Communism. I am a symbol of democracy.”

Even through a translator, Adam Michnik is an eloquent speaker. But during his speech at the Elliott School, this particular biographical point may have been his most contested. There are those who see Michnik as a man unable to give up his glory days.

During Jaruzelski’s rule, Michnik was a hero of the democratic opposition. The intellectual wunderkind of Solidarity, he founded the Worker’s Defense Committee – and by the time he was the age of the students who came to hear him speak last Friday, he had been jailed more times than he could count.

But as the revolutionaries became the founders, things got complicated.

Michnik assumed editorship of Poland’s largest daily, and used it to advocate against lustration. (“The news was lies. Prices in stores were lies. But we’re supposed to believe the KGB records are gospel?”) But he took it a step further. Citing denazification and the post-Franco regime change, he advocated destroying the records entirely.

He argued against the return of property commandeered by Communists. He even praised Jaruzelski. (“Poles ought to say a special mass, that they had a Jaruzelski and not a Ceauşescu.”) Soon he was giving joint interviews and attending the birthday parties of former Communist bigwigs.

Many in Poland began to believe Michnik was more concerned with defending collaborators and informers than democracy. He decried Lech Wałęsa’s presidency as a  first step toward tyranny. Solidarity yanked its famous trademark of his newspaper’s standard.

By the 1990s his former ally, the poet Zbignew Herbert declared him a has-been in a scathing interview:

“Now he stays in his paper citadel [Gazeta Wyborcza] surrounded by true believers of both sexes. I recently talked to a forty-year old ‘youngster’ who confided in me that he adored Michnik and would do anything for him … Thus the pattern of the charismatic leader and dedicated worshippers repeats itself.”

As it happened, I found it hard to resist conversion. For one thing, Michnikism appeals to students of American history. There was never such a revolution, Michnik reminded us several times, where the revolutionaries were not disappointed. He noted that many of the American founding fathers considered their great experiment a failure.

“Revolutions like bold colors, red, orange, green – but democracy is gray.” Michnik speaks with excitement and abandon. His rhetoric is logical and airtight, even if it doesn’t always correlate with his actions.

If Wałęsa is Poland’s General Washington, it’s easy to picture Michnik as a Slavic Thomas Paine. The man who openly criticized Washington after the war. The most loyal oppositionist.

Perhaps Michnik’s most redeeming evidence is the success of Poland’s democratization. Because of him – or despite him – Poland has had an astonishingly smooth regime change. As we talk about exporting democracy and nation building in the Middle East, it might pay to listen to Michnik. Nothing happens twice, but in reality we must not always improvise.

The Department of Consumer and Regulatory Affairs has received several calls from residents over the past week asking if it is legal for landlords to provide space heaters as the only source of heat. While using space heaters in and of itself is obviously not illegal, the District does not allow them to be the sole source of heat – they were not designed to be.

Without too much code/legal jargon, DCRA interprets the 2006 International Property Maintenance Code and 14 DC MR code is that when the space heater is turned off, the building heating facilities must maintain the minimum prescriptive temperature 68 degrees or 70 degrees. (IPMC 68 degrees F, 14 DCMR 501.2, 70 Degrees F). Here’s the code:

HEATING FACILITIES
602.1 Facilities required. Heating facilities shall be provided in structures as required by this section.602.2 Residential occupancies. Dwellings shall be provided with heating facilities capable of maintaining a room temperature of 68°F (20°C) in all habitable rooms, bathrooms and toilet rooms based on the winter outdoor design temperature for the locality indicated in AppendixD of the International Plumbing Code. Cooking appliances shall not be used to provide space heating to meet the requirements of this section.

Space heaters are not designed, per their listing, to be capable of maintaining room temperature in a dwelling. Space heaters are not to be confused with permanent wall mounted electric baseboard heating, when installed with a thermostat, and according to code, is accepted means of heat. So essentially, using a space heater to be the main source of heat is not that much different than using your stove in terms of how we enforce the law.

Many municipalities outright amend their codes to state “Space heaters shall not provide the minimum heat requirements in a dwelling…”. We rely on the interpretation of heating facilities, and that space heaters are not designed to heat an entire dwelling unit.

If you live in a rental unit using only space heaters this winter, we highly reccomend you contact your landlord and explain this to them. If they are not responsive, call 202-442-9557 or email us and schedule an inspection ASAP. 

Here are some other Winter Heating Safety Tips:

Electric Space Heaters
Keep space heaters 3 feet form furniture, bedding, clothing, walls or other things that burn. Use only heaters that have been tested and approved by U.L. or another respected testing lab. Make sure your space heater has an automatic shut-off feature for tip-overs. Do not use heaters that have worn or frayed cords or plugs. Use electrical outlets conservatively. Remember that overloaded circuits can cause fires. Never use kerosene heaters inside a house.

Fireplace & Woodstoves
Have your chimney inspected by a professional annually and have it cleaned as needed. Always use a fire screen. Spark arresters are required. Never leave children unattended around a fireplace or woodstove. Be sure the fore is out before going to bed or away from the house. Never burn trash, Christmas paper or trees in your fireplace or woodstove. When cleaning out the ashes, place them into metal containers only, and dampen slightly. Never store discarded ashes inside or adjacent your home. Woodstoves require a 36″ clearance form combustible surfaces. Woodstoves should be U.L. approved and installed pursuant to all applicable codes.

Electric Blankets
Follow manufacture guidelines regarding proper use, maintenance and replacement. Never leave the blanket on high for any exceeded period. Never bunch or wad the blanket up, or fold it in a heap. Turning you blanket off when you turn your alarm off is a simple, safe habit. Upon rising, smooth the blanket out flat to avoid concentrating the heat. Small children, invalids or the elderly should never use electric blankets because these persons have decreased abilities to sense high heat.

Kitchen Stoves & Ovens
Never use kitchen burners or the oven as heating devices. Remember that an electric burner, left on for extended periods, can reach a temperature of 1000 degrees, and can cause adjacent walls to ignite.

Tips Courtesy of Pierce Township, Ohio.

W rzadkich momentach, gdy budzą się we mnie drzemiące resztki człowieczeństwa, żal mi ludzi nie znających historii (szybko mi zresztą przechodzi: kto się bronił ignorantom uczyć?) – jak oni się biedni muszą męczyć czytając wiadomości ekonomiczne. Nie ma kryzysu, jest kryzys, nie ma kryzysu, jest kryzys, nie ma kryzysu – i na ogół jest to wina PiSu…   A gdyby  czytali trochę (albo spytali rodziców), wiedzieliby, że było kiedyś takie pojęcie jak mądrość etapu: praktyki słuszne w pewnym stadium mogą być kompletnie błędne w następnym - i à rebours.

W szczególności, forma może się czasem rozjeżdżać z treścią – więc obniżający podatki rząd PiS jest socjalistyczny, a wysyłający lotne kontrole rząd PO – liberalny. I nie szkodzi, że gdyby nie szara strefa, to Polska już oficjalnie byłaby krajem Trzeciego Świata. Furda, że nękani przez kontolerów skarbówki ludzie zarabiają promil tego, co obdarowana przez premiera i prezydenta nową ustawą branża hazardowa… Brewerie w rodzaju lotnych inspekcji były specjalnością zakładu za czasów, gdy jego kierownikiem był Gomułka – ale wskutek powszechnej ignorancji, jedyne co kojarzy się ludziom z towarzyszem “Wiesławem” to obelgi miotane przez szalonego entomologa…

Nie pozostaje nic innego, jak tylko wcielić w życie mądrość z tytułu: raz, że w ten sposób uwolnię budżet od konieczności wypłacania mi w przyszłości emerytury, a dwa – skoro i tak przyszedł moment, gdy zgadzam się ze słowami wydrukowanymi przez “GW” (innymi niż data), to albo oni mądrzeją, albo ja głupieję – ale luka między nami maleje.

Ciężkie czasy, jak powiedział rosyjski żołnierz kradnąc zegar z hali dworca kolejowego…

Reminder: DO NOT use the IW’s .com site link!  They lost the domain to a bad site again.

Leaders: http://acparmyofclubpenguin.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/join-page-schedule/ Join page schedule official copy

Update: In response to Icey, the reason we are neutral is to CONTINUE the war, not end it, because we are at least twice the size of everyone else, and wars need to be balanced.  ACP alone is larger than the entire turnout of the Orange Alliance by almost two fold, and thrice for IW.  Whichever side we join would then have a significant advantage, therefore we will leave you to your war in the hopes it won’t be over right away.

Fox : I have a suggestion. What if only one division went to war with IW, like Delta did or something, or Alpha or whatever? And we could split Delta, Alpha, and Echo into branches of divisions so we had Kappa or whatever the other 3 were, because seriously ACP can’t get into any wars whatsoever anymore and I am bored out of my mind…. Boomer we at least need to get into the habit of weekly practices again, one every Saturday, because with Christmas break coming up we’ll have a lot of days off from school and we can do more patrols and such, so it’d be nice to use that time to improve formations and squares and such.

Boomer’s Edit: That is a possibility, although I would prefer not to go to war on our closest ally, as much as I disagree with their actions.  We will probably wait and see how things turnout before deciding any further.

Iceyfeet, the Leader of the Ice Warriors, has declared war on 6 armies, 3 of which are good allies of ours (GW, WW, and HSA).  This situation has been going on since IW decided to invade a bunch of HSA’s servers for no good reason, including Half Pipe, which is also owned by WW, GW, and the Tacos (the reason so many armies are involved).  While ACP will not go to war with IW, we do not in any way support the behavior of the Ice Warriors.

The last time something like this happened, it was the Nachos earlier in the year when their size made them unstoppable to any army other than ACP, and they used their size to cause quite a few wars with a lot of the smaller armies with little reason.  IW is in a similar situation, being larger than most of their opponents, however as the Orange Alliance proved yesterday, IW is beatable.  The team of WW, GW, and Tacos numbered close to 30, defeating only about 15 IW soldiers and a handful of Nachos.  At this time, I am not sure whether the Nachos will be helping IW or not, and frankly I would be surprised if they signed up to help an army who has invaded a handful of their allies for no reason.  Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

~Boomer

Wooow Woooow….. Gila, seneng banget gue hari ini… Seneeeeng Seneeeeng Seeneeeeeeeg….. YAAAA HAAAAA
Hmmm, kenapa gue seseneng ini??

These are the reasons :
1. Gue udah mecahin rekor pacaran gue sendiri.. Yap, gue udah seminggu lebih sama Momo-chan

2. Dia selalu nyandarin kepalanya ke pundak gue.. Huaaaah, baru pertama kali nih gue kayak gini…

3. Daaan Akhirnyaaaa, untuk pertama kalinya gue megang tangan cewek.. hiahahahha

Jadi, this is the story today.. Between me, her, and our relationship (halaah)

Tadi sore, abis pulang sekolah.. Karna anak-anak pada laper, n kebetulan gue sama Momo-chan juga kelaperan… Akhirnya kita mutusin buat ke McD.. (mumpung lagi punya duiiit.. hehe Xp).. Si Bram, Ade, Amel, dan Momo-chan naik Mobilnya Bram… Dan gue sendiri naik gerobak warisan kakak gue yang baru saja gue betulin… Sampe Radin Inten.. zzzzz Macet zzzzzz… Dan pas gue udah nyampe McD setelah perjalanan yang cukup panjang, melelahkan, dan menambah masa cacing yang ada di perutku.. (walaaah, hiperbola banget).. Ternyata kita gak kebagian tempat, tuh McD laknat udah penuh nuh nuh.. huuuh… yaudah deh, kita mutusin buat ke BP aja… Dan motor keramat gue, gue tinggal di McD.. Dan gue ikut naek mobilnya si Bram..

Huhuu, gue duduk samping Momo-chan (yaiyaalaaah)… Trus dia tiba-tiba nyenderin palanya ke pundak gue.. hehe, kaget dikiit.. Tapi biarinlah.. Baru pertama kali gitu looh!!
Udah nyampe BP, kita langsung ke KFC… Huuh, bener-bener norak gue… pas ditanya mau makan apa, gue sepik sepik kebingungan.. padahal gue gak tau ada menu apaan aja disana (keterlaluan sekalii).. Yaudah, akhirnya gue samain aja sama Momo-chan… Dan itung-itung masih dalam suasana ultah gue, Makanannya momo-chan gue yang bayarin.. (padahal ultah gak ultah emang harusnya gue yang bayarin..)

Abis selesai makan, kita pulang deh… Dan disiini niih.. Gue seneng banget… Dia ngegenggem tangan gue… Sumpah, gue baru pertama kali megang tangan cewek. Kecuali tangan Ibu, kakak gue, sama guru2 cewek. Rasanya, gimanaa gitu… aaaaa, mau laaagiiii.. Jadi pengen cepet-cepet besok nih gue… Gue pengen ketemu dia lagi.. Kanjeeen gila guee….

I couldn’t understand the terror people were displaying over the Obama election. The people standing up in outrage at town hall meetings, opponents of healthcare reform, tea-baggers, Palin supporters, and climate change deniers, may not be all old, middleclass and white people, but it seemed like that was the only thing most of them had in common and fear. The video (a link is on my Facebook page), The Fall of The Republic, explains to me what is really common; they are all terrorized by change. 

The video puts the thoughts behind the terrorism these people are going through and brings understanding as to what they are terrified about—the terrorism is in the natural change in the balance of power going on in the world today. While this video shows their fears, if the people, who want to destroy America, need an example of a good terrorist video format to go by, they could do worse than by using this one.

There are three domains that are common to all wars, that is to say most wars generally have all three domains in common. These domains are honor, interest and fear. To let us be consumed by fear, brought about by terrorism as displayed in this video, only brings the possibility of war, civil or otherwise, closer to hand. We need to understand where our honor comes from, what our common interests are, and put away our fear of change or of a future unknown.

America’s honor comes from an idea, image, spirit and experiment on how people should live together, and little more. Our interests are in the individual, and common to all. Our fears should be few—if our country continues to lead by example and deed—if our deeds are accomplished with honor and in the interest of us all. This video has little worth of viewing except to show how wars are started, and how irrational both sides are in the forming of this war.

Round 1 Daemons:
Tough game and tough opponent. List was designed to win at all costs so no real theme or weaknesses. My opponent ended up winning the heat.

Round 2 Dark Elves:
Played my mate Gordo and lost in turn 6. Good and tense game so really thrilling game.

Round 3 High Elves:
Another good game. Castled up in a corner and picked off his units one at a time. Won by a landslide.

Round 4 Ogres:
Another good game. Took my opponents spellcasters out then took down the rest of his army. Another thrilling game.

Round 5 Warriors of Chaos:
Another match up with a mate. Ben Cox this time and a win at all costs game. Took out his lord on dragon in the last turn only which gave me the victory.

Round 6 Vampires:
A win to qualify and his lord to kill. Mission failed. Poorly chosen spells and order and let my opponent in. He then took my army apart.

All in all, for my last tournament it was better than last year but I’m still angry with myself at my last loss. Still, another day of life.

Iraq was about “the war on terrorism.” The Afghanistan invasion, for me, was about the “war on terrorists.” To me, it was about getting bin Laden and depriving Al Qaeda of a sanctuary — period. I never thought we could make Afghanistan into Norway — and even if we did, it would not resonate beyond its borders the way Iraq might.

To now make Afghanistan part of the “war on terrorism” — i.e., another nation-building project — is not crazy. It is just too expensive, when balanced against our needs for nation-building in America, so that we will have the strength to play our broader global role. Hence, my desire to keep our presence in Afghanistan limited. That is what I believe. That is why I believe it.

via Op-Ed Columnist – This I Believe – NYTimes.com.

Friedman does a good job in separating the two alternating strategies of war–revolution and evolution. He makes a good case for The Afghan War being one of revolution, as we cross the Gap between our two worlds penetrate troops into Afghanistan and take-out the terrorists. This is exactly the policy I felt we should have taken with Afghanistan, to the extreme. I would have given the Pakistan government the same option as we gave Afghanistan–give-up OBL or we will come and get him. When I discussed this with someone from the right and more conservative than myself, he was shocked. He asked if I understood that this probably would have led to a nuclear confrontation. I can only say, the longer we fiddle-f**k around in those countries, the more this option still is a possibility.

Friedman says this about Iraq:

To me, the most important reason for the Iraq war was never W.M.D. It was to see if we could partner with Iraqis to help them build something that does not exist in the modern Arab world: a state, a context, where the constituent communities — Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds — write their own social contract for how to live together without an iron fist from above. Iraq has proved staggeringly expensive and hugely painful. The mistakes we made should humble anyone about nation-building in Afghanistan. It does me.

To me Iraq was about WMD’s. I have always believed that any change the USA has made in the world has come from example, not deed. While example and deed goes hand in hand–you cannot led by example without failing to do the deed with blood and treasure–I believe our example after the Vietnam War is more powerful than the deeds we carried out during the war. But our example was getting less transparent, because of corruption and complexity, as we built treasure at home.

We consciously made the decision to destroy our middle-class, to make this country rich, but with less wealth. We forgot about Afghanistan after setting Russia as the example of what not to become. We decided to destroy a POTUS for being human, at the expence of ignoring or giving the POTUS, the needed tools to defend us against terrorist. We let corporations takeover the resources of the USA, which we would have never found out about, except for the attack on 9/11/2001.

9/11 showed us how corrupt our nations resources has become, in their relationship with mult-national corporations, as Enron and WorldCom show their true colors. The Iraqi War showed us how the POTUS and the US government was willing to open the nation’s treasures to corporations, in a crusade, with little oversight or plan. We had become a country of tyranny, and we didn’t even know it.

Tyranny is a war, between past and future generations, held in the here and now. Tyrants don’t get strength from past generations or care about future generations, but, perhaps and only perhaps, their own genetic stock. The spirit of America was becoming cloudy with tyrants, and like the threat depicted in a Delbert comic, we all laughed, or blamed the other guy for acting that way. To depict Obama as a Nazi or Karl Marks is wrong. The tyranny is in the relationships forming within our government and between its people, not in any single individual, if there are any individuals left. But this War on Terror is changing that.

Those on the other side are showing us what we are made of, and we are blinking our eyes at the image it is producing. The new generations in the USA are becoming more disillusioned, while past generations look for what made our country strong in the first place.

I believe the Afghan War is becoming one front in a war against tyranny. A second front is forming in Honduras. The center of these fronts is located in the USA.

I believe Friedman is correct, “To now make Afghanistan part of the “war on terrorism” — i.e., another nation-building project — is not crazy. It is just too expensive, when balanced against our needs for nation-building in America…” However, I believe the nation-building in Afghanistan is one and the same nation-building going on in America now.

Aduuuh, gue disibukkan dengan sekolah dan rapat-rapatan… Jadi jarang ngeblog deh sekarang… Huuh
Oke, mulai ceritanya..

Hmmmm… Lama-lama Momo-chan jadi aneh.. Dia kesannya kayak nyuekin gue.. Apa gue yang nyuekin dia?? huuft… Aduuuuh, pliss deeeh.. Gue bener-bener gak mau kehilangan dia. Gue gak mau bikin dia sakit hati, gue juga gak mau nyakitin hati gue sendiri…

Apa gara-gara gue kurang komunikasi sama dia ya disekolah?? Hooooaaah, tapi gimana doonk?? Gue gak ngerti apa yang mesti gue omongin sama dia.. Arrrghh… Bingung Bingung Bingung…

Gue berharaaaap banget hubungan gue sama dia bakalan lama. Kalo perlu sampe nikah sekalian.. Gue gak mau gonta-ganti pacar.. Kan kalo gonta-ganti pacar, berarti kan sakit hatinya juga berkali-kali.. Hiiii, jangan sampe deh itu kejadian….

Pliss Ya Allah, ane sayang banget sama dia… Gak mau kehilangan dia… I Love her so much… So, please.. Make her my bride in the future.

Incertezze nei modelli climatici

Le equazioni che compaiono nel modello sono solo approssimazioni dei processi fisici che avvengono nell’atmosfera. Mentre alcune di queste approssimazioni sono altamente precise, altre sono alquanto grezze. Questo è dovuto al fatto che i processi reali che avvengono sono o troppo complessi per essere inclusi nel modello (il supercomputer non riesce ad eseguirli) o perché la nostra comprensione di questi processi è ancora troppo scarsa. Quest’ultima è particolarmente vera per la formazione e la dissipazione delle nuvole. Si sta ancora cercando di implementare nei modelli l’influenza climatica delle differenti varietà di nuvole che compaiono nelle diverse regioni del pianeta e nelle varie stagioni. La modellazione del comportamento delle nuvole è molto difficile ed è qualcosa che ancora non è stato realizzato nei modelli climatici globali.
Tutti i modelli climatici IPCC assegnano un feedback positivo alla riduzione delle nubi medio basse e questo è il motivo principale delle differenze nel riscaldamento fornito dai diversi modelli climatici (Trenberth e Fasullo, 2009). Prevedo che questo modello di comportamento (delle nubi) si dimostrerà essere non corretto. E anche se gli autori sono restii ad ammetterlo c’è già qualche elemento di prova nella letteratura scientifica (Spencer et al., 2007; Caldwell e Bretherton, 2009). Credo che i modellisti hanno erroneamente interpretato il fatto che il riscaldamento provochi una diminuzione delle nuvole, mentre in realtà è stata la diminuzione delle nuvole che ha causato la maggior parte del riscaldamento del pianeta. Questo è fondamentalmente un problema di nesso di causalità: una direzione del nesso di causalità è stato ignorata quando si cerca di valutare il nesso di causalità nella direzione opposta (Spencer e Braswell, 2008).
Il problema fondamentale del nesso di causalità nella modellazione del clima non si limita solo alle nuvole. Mentre il riscaldamento provoca, in media, un aumento del vapore acqueo alle basse quote, tutto il sistema di precipitazioni controlla il vapore acqueo contenuto nella parte restante dell’atmosfera. Quindi da un parte l’evaporazione contribuisce ad incrementare l’effetto serra immettendo vapore acqueo in atmosfera, dall’altra le precipitazioni lo riducono. Ma mentre il fenomeno fisico dell’evaporazione è stato capito molto bene, lo stesso non si può dire dei processi fisici di conversione di vapore acqueo in nubi e in precipitazioni, che rimangono piuttosto complessi e misteriosi. E’ l’equilibrio tra questi due processi – l’evaporazione e le precipitazioni – che determina l’umidità atmosferica.
Anche nei modelli fatti ad hoc per studiare il comportamento e l’accrescimento delle nuvole (modelli che presentano molti calcoli complessi) il momento in cui inizia una precipitazione non viene calcolato ma bisogna fornirglielo. Questo fatto è una fonte di enorme incertezza e non viene sufficientemente considerato dagli scienziati. Alla fine, molte delle approssimazioni nei modelli climatici probabilmente non sono così importanti per la previsione dei cambiamenti climatici, ma basta un solo processo critico per portare le proiezioni del modello in una direzione completamente sbagliata. L’IPCC ammette che la loro principale fonte di incertezza è il feedback delle basse nuvole, cioè come la bassa copertura nuvolosa cambierà con il riscaldamento.

La causa del riscaldamento globale: l’uomo o la natura?

L’aggiunta di più di anidride carbonica in atmosfera deve avere qualche effetto sul bilancio energetico del pianeta, ma quanto è grande in confronto allo squilibrio energetico che il sistema climatico impone su se stesso?
Il risultato è stato che questi modellisti considerano il sistema climatico molto sensibile alle nostre emissioni di gas serra e che in primo luogo esso è in uno stato di equilibrio energetico.Vi è una pervasiva e non scientifica convinzione che la natura è in una situazione precaria di equilibrio. Sia che si tratti di ecosistemi o del sistema climatico, si sentono scienziati che sostengono la presunta fragilità della natura. Ma questo è un concetto soggettivo, non scientifico. Proprio perché la natura tende verso un equilibrio non significa che l’equilibrio sia in qualche modo ‘fragile’. E che cosa significa ‘fragile’, quando la natura sembra sconvolgere questo equilibrio comunque?
Perché questo è così importante per la modellazione del clima? Perché se questi scienziati ignorano la variabilità naturale indotta del clima, e la maggior parte dei cambiamenti climatici sono dovuti alle attività dell’uomo, allora inevitabilmente si arriva alla conclusione che il sistema climatico è fragile. Se il riscaldamento osservato nel corso del 20 ° secolo è stato causato dall’uomo, ne consegue che il sistema climatico è abbastanza sensibili (feedback positivo). Ma se il riscaldamento è stato in gran parte causato da una variazione naturale della copertura nuvolosa, allora il sistema climatico è più probabilmente insensibile (feedback negativo). E non c’è modo di sapere se sono avvenuti cambiamenti naturali nella copertura delle nubi semplicemente perché le nostre osservazioni sul secolo scorso sono molto poco accurate.
Così, i modellisti climatologi partono dal fatto che non vi sono cambiamenti a lungo termine delle nubi, del vapore acqueo, ecc, e programmano i loro modelli climatici in modo da essere abbastanza sensibili nel produrre il riscaldamento del pianeta nel corso degli ultimi 50 anni con l’aumento delle concentrazioni di biossido di carbonio. Il presupposto è sempre quello: esso partono dal fatto che la Terra fosse in uno stato di equilibrio energetico, prima che l’uomo cominciasse ad usare i combustibili fossili. Ma, come è dimostrato dalla seguente ricostruzione della temperatura degli ultimi 2.000 anni (dal Loehle, 2007), vi sono state continue variazioni di temperatura che implicano necessariamente continui cambiamenti nel bilancio energetico della Terra.

fonte: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/2000-years-of-global-temperatures-small.gif

E mentre i cambiamenti dell’attività solare sono una possibile spiegazione per questi eventi, è anche possibile che ci siano a lungo termine, internamente al sistema, delle fluttuazioni nel bilancio energetico globale, determinate dalla variabilità naturale delle nubi e del vapore acqueo.

Conclusioni

Non c’è dubbio che molti sforzi sono stati fatti per migliorare i modelli climatici. Ma ciò non significa che tali modelli possono necessariamente prevedere il clima tra 20, 50 o 100 anni da adesso. In ultima analisi, il modellista (e quindi il politico) deve prendere come una questione di fede il fatto che oggi i modelli climatici computerizzati contengono tutti i processi importanti necessari a prevedere il riscaldamento globale.
Questo è il motivo per cui convalidare le previsioni di una teoria è così importante per il progresso della scienza. Purtroppo, non abbiamo un buon sistema per testare rigorosamente modelli climatici nel contesto della teoria che il riscaldamento globale è antropico. Gli scienziati affermano che i loro modelli possono spiegare i cambiamenti di temperatura avvenuti nel 20 ° secolo. Ciò è vero solo in parte, infatti: primo, non è improbabile che la loro è l’unica spiegazione e secondo, loro forniscono una spiegazione conoscendo già la risposta. Il punto è che, mentre i modelli climatici attualmente offrono una possibile spiegazione per il cambiamento climatico (umanità emissioni di gas serra), non è affatto l’unica possibile. E ogni modellista che sostiene di aver trovato l’unica possibile causa del riscaldamento globale è in malafede. Anche l’IPCC (2007) ammette c’è un 10% di probabilità che si sbagli sul fatto che il riscaldamento degli ultimi 50 anni sia di origine antropica.

FINE

Fonti: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/07/how-do-climate-models-work/

ANGELO

Mamma mia leggete l’ultima parte, il nostro angelo (che vi saluta tutti) è come sei ci avesse visto lungo 3 mesi fa quando scrisse questo pezzo… sara mica lui la famosa talpa del CRU???

My guess is that those trained in Iraq (and are planting IED’s in Afghanistan) are applying their knowledge in Afghanistan, but without co-opting the US military in their effort. They are planting the IED’s and swarming the US forces as a tactic to win, instead of continuing the status quo, as was the strategy of the insurgency in Iraq.

via The Image. (Post has not been made public yet.)

Obama told reporters that his strategy will be revealed after Thanksgiving holiday. If this strategy has not been explained yet, I think it will be a strategy similar to the Taliban’s; it will be a strategy to win. It will be a strategy to defeat the Taliban, instead of co-opting it with a fight against AQ and drones. If it is not a strategy to win, then Obama does not understand the strategy of the enemy of his war, or war has only been explained in political terms.

If his strategy is one of winning, the strategy will have a heavy component of cooperation with Afghanistan’s neighbors, specifically India, but possibly Iran as well. My analysis may be just an image I picked-up after reading comments and postings on the internet, or the image of his talks with the Prime Minister of India, that I watched on TV.

There could also be a China component, from China’s interest in Afghanistan as a conduit for oil to the India Ocean, because to win you don’t try to balance the force, but overwhelm the forces.