What I Feel Is The Best Way To Be profitable At The Races

As most of you may already know I have been using PaceAppraiser since it’s inception. It has been documented that I produced 44 winners out of 121 races in last Novembers Meadowlands Survival Challenge and had a healthy ROI as well. I used PaceAppraiser and The concepts from Randy Giles book. “Extreme Pace Handicapping” as a stand alone tool. After finishing 1st in the winners category I started to look at the value aspect of handicapping and was fortunate enough to purchase a copy of Steve Fieros “The Four Quarters Of Horse Investing”. This in combination with PaceAppraiser proved to be what I needed to take my game to the next level. I am of the belief that win betting is the only way to travel. There are those that claim to be successful betting exotics, Place and show, minus pools and two horse win betting. Being a proof positive person, I would need to see this before the fact on a long term basis, What my left eye sees, my right eyes will believe. Talk is cheap.

If there are those that are willing to show us all how they can do what they say they have done, we can all learn from them. I have no doubt that there are some very sharp people out there that can indulge us all with there accomplishments before the fact and in the long term. I’ve seen lots of rhetoric  and hear say on this subject but nothing to substantiate Many faceless claims.

Making A Living betting Horses (My Opinion Of What It May Involve And Imply)

If you are a casual player or weekend warrior, you do not fit into this equation.

1 – Using Programs

In my opinion, there are very few programs available that will yield  a 10% ROI and you will lose with
most.
Being a mechanical entity, most will fail to see the hidden entities that have a direct impact on a given race.
If you are successful at 10%. You would be putting $ 200,000 at risk to yield a meager $ 20,000 in a year.
can you live on that?
As well, you would be playing and handicapping 50 – 60 races a week and need a minimal $ 2000 bankroll to start.
The trick might be to keep doubling your starting bankroll. I don’t suggest playing low handle tracks.

2 – Betting To Win

Betting to win, in my mind is the only way to be successful at the game in the long run.
If you are not a value oriented player you will more then likely fail.
Betting the exotics will also cause one to fail in the long run.
It is hard enough to play into a 15 – 17% track edge. With the exotics your playing against a 24 – 27% edge.
You may get lucky on occasion but over time you will give it all back and then some.
I cannot say there may be exceptions to this, but if there are, which I strongly doubt, it would have to be proven to me.
I have not see it. Have you?

3 – Betting 2 Horses To Win

Betting 2 horses can be done, value permitting (1 -2% of bettable races) but not frequently.
There are those that say they are successful always betting 2 horses to win.
When asked them to provide their picks before the fact, they decline and say they have nothing to prove.
If this be the case, why make the statement?

4 – Place and Show Betting.

I’ll make this very short. This has never been and never be an option for me.

There are those that will disagree with my thinking. I have no quarrel with that.
However, If you have criticism on my way of thinking I have no quarrel with that as well.
Just add something constructive to the topic and in a congenial manner.

I will address all comments on my blog

Here’s another contentious turf route, that in my opinion will take a (Fast, Slow) race shape and favor the late type runner assuming there are very few scratches. If there are scratches on my odds template,  just put a line through them but don’t adjust the fair odds or add additional contenders. If there are 3 overlays, pass the race. If there are 2 overlays, bet the overlay closest to top of the template. If  there are 2 overlays at 8-1 odds or better, bet them both. If one of the contenders fall to 3/2 or less, pass the race.

http://partsnutspage.blogspot.com
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home
http://partsnutspage.wordpress.com/
http://cid-497ecc8671b97233.spaces.live.com/
http://twitter.com/home

MSN Messenger: bill_hirsch…@msn.com

Saratoga – Race 2

#4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN

Todd Pletcher’s barn has gone a bit cold recently, but that could very easily change with the introduction of a few more first-time starters, for which, Pletcher is very good with.

Keep’em Movin Dan has a lot of positives. 

His entire training regiment has occurred over the Saratoga dirt course, which he’ll be racing over Thursday.

In his last work, he went five furlongs from the gate in 1:00 1/5; the seventh fastest of 93 others at the distance.  He’s had several other good workouts as well, including a sub :48 work at four furlongs.

Among first-time starters, I’m most interested in horses I believe can make the lead out of the gate, and Keep’em Movin Dan seems to be poised to break well and do exactly that.

It helps that DISTORTED HUMOR offspring win 16% of the time in their first start and Keep’em Movin Dan’s dam, QUEEN OF MONEY, has six winners from six starters, including 2 stakewinners.

$10.00 To Win – #4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN
$10.00 To Place – #4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN
$10.00 To Show – #4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN

Saratoga – Race 4

#2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL

In only two starts, Isn’t That Special has the top speed figure in the field and her front-running style should help her win this six-furlong sprint.

Except for LOVELY WILDCAT, the late pace numbers for the rest of her rivals are very poor, and it won’t take much to put the field away if Isn’t That Special is able to make the lead.  The inside post and her early pace numbers should help her bid.

It’s possible she will be clipped at the wire, but I certainly don’t see her finishing out of the top-3, so she seems like a safe play, and should pay on the full wager.

$10.00 To Win – #2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL
$10.00 To Place – #2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL
$10.00 To Show – #2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL

Del Mar - Race 7

#2 CRY AND CATCH ME

Cry And Catch Me will make her three-year-old debut on Thursday, 10-months after winning the grade 1 Oakleaf in September 2007.

In five races at the distance, the speed has not been winning on the Del Mar all-weather track, but I’d expect that to change in this spot.  Cry And Catch Me should make the lead, and she has already won on the lead once over fake dirt, and also has a victory over the Del Mar track as a 2-year-old.

The drop in class is a bit of a concern, but trainer Bob Baffert has kept her on a regular training regiment throughout the spring and summer, so I’m not too concerned.  For the same reason, I’m not concerned about the layoff.

She should outclass this field, and her odds may be short, but she looks like a winner to me.

$10.00 To Win – #5 CRY AND CATCH ME
$10.00 To Place – #5 CRY AND CATCH ME
$10.00 To Show – #5 CRY AND CATCH ME

Another Friday night – and you know what that means around here…Del Mar action on TVG!  To be honest I’m really looking forward to the Saturday card at Saratoga and all of the juicy stakes races (which I”m hearing will be live on ABC across the nation) – but why not take some shots on a beautiful Friday night and try to pad the bankroll?

We’ve got 8 races on the card including the Wickerr Handicap – which features last year’s winner Becrux against a competitive field lead by the show horse from the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Classic – Awesome Gem.  Not too shabby for a Friday night, eh? Now toss in the fact that thanks to Gloria Goodbody in race 8 on Thursday, there’s a hefty pick 6 carryover to chase.  Can’t ask for much more than that on a Friday night.

Race 1:

• #8 Six Pack Man (8/1)
• #5 Lunch Time (5/2*)
• #4 Here Comes Buster (6/1)

We start off the evening with a 40000 Maiden Claimer for 3-year-olds and upward going 1 mile over the main track. #8 Six Pack Man came up as my top selection. Sure, he got blown away in his debut sprint effort, but the pace ought to be a tad slower today and with that race under his belt he’s more than eligible to move forward.  A more alert start and this gelding looks like he could be a force in the stretch. I love getting a seasoned vet like Nakatani as jockey.  #5 Lunch Time is the horse to beat exiting a booming 91 Beyer speed figure effort last out.  Also note that the hood goes on today, although “blinkers on” doesn’t seem to be trainer Kathy Walsh’s ace up her sleeve (0 for 11).  I think you’ve got to be worried about a bounce, although he could regress slightly and still crush this field.  Still, I think he’ll be bet down to oblivion based off that Beyer figure and will likely try to play against come post time.  #4 Here Comes Buster looks like the x-factor to me.  It’s difficult to tell what kind of horse we have here exactly, but this isn’t exactly the strongest of fields.  Of the myriad runners who ran 2nd last out, I tend to prefer the rail runner, #1Warren’s Moonkross as another possibility for the exotic wagers.

Race 2:

• #7 Carrie With a C (5/2*)
• #1 Adarlyn Cat (9/2)
• #5 Born With Eagles (12/1)

The 2nd race of the evening is a 35000 Open Claimer for fillies and mares 3-and-up going 6 furlongs over the main track. #7 Carrie With a C has the always dangerous “King Jerry” Hollendorfer first-off claim angle (31%) and has won 3 of 7 races thus far this year.  The good news is that we may get a respectable price on this favorite as players are likely to go in a couple of directions here.  #1 Adarlyn Cat looks sneaky to me and we may get a better price than the morning line suggests.  I love the third start after a layoff angle and also note that this gal has been in sharp form recently.  You know she’ll put in a good effort at least.  I could see her saving ground from the inside, but being close enough to the pace to not get shuffled to the back of the pack.  She’ll need to make a better move than her main rival, #6 Flower Fusion, turning for home.  Those two have taken turns beating each other in recent efforts – which is common for these types of claimers.  The trick is catching them on the right day. #5 Born With Eagles is the longshot upset threat in my opinion.  We simply have no idea how she’ll run on the synthetics, but that last workout sure looks like she’s taken to the track, doesn’t it (4 furlongs in 47.4)? She lost to a 7-time winner last time out that would likely give this field a run for their money.  She’ll be more interesting if she makes a good post parade impression.  Obviously #6 Flower Fusion is interesting in here as well if I’m using Adarlyn Cat.  I just figured it was Cat’s turn to finish ahead.  You know how claimers are.

 Race 3:

• #6 Celestial Topper (5/1)
• #5 Dashwood (5/1)
• #2 Got Alot Going (9/2)

The 3rd race of the day is a 40000 State-bred Maiden Claimer for 2-year-olds going 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  I didn’t use the favorite at all (#8 Kitty Caliente) as I didn’t see enough from that debut but it wouldn’t surprised me if she spoiled my fun.  I went with two other debut runners in #6 Celestial Topper and #5 Dashwood instead.  To be honest, this is perhaps the toughest race on the card to call.  The bad news is that it’s also the start of the Pick 6.  The good news is that you will have a chance to evaluate them a bit in the post parade before keying up that carryover chasing ticket.  #2 Got Alot Going obviously looks useful underneath, and I suppose could move forward today.  I’d tend to prefer one of the first time starters here though. 

Race 4:

• #2 Solar Miss (3/1)
• #3 America’s Friend (5/1)
• #7 Chosen Royalty (4/1)

The 4th race of the night is a 63000N1X Allowance for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward going 1 mile over the turf course.  #2 Solar Miss looks like a single to me on the pick 6 tickets.  I really think this gal could be something special.  She’s lightly raced and has a very high ceiling.  Her 3 career starts are phenomenal, and she wasn’t running against slouches.  Note that the show horse from her last effort, Gloria Goodbody, is the horse that caused the Pick 6 carryover on Thursday night in the final race.  I like her style, andlet’s be honest – Kathy Walsh has RIDICULOUS stats for this event. 36% going sprint to route?  41% with winners last time out?  Lock and load baby.  #3 America’s Friend could prevail if my top choice runs green against winners in her first effort.  Alex Solis has had this one run three excellent races so far this summer.  Defeats by a neck and a nose in the last 3 starts (sandwiched around a win) show me this gal will be right there at the end. #7 Chosen Royalty is one I’d use underneath in the exactas and trifectas.  I don’ think she’s a win threat , but she should threaten for the money.

Race 5:

• #7 Victory Dancer (5/2*)
• #8 Keep Active (6/1)
• #4 Jet Set Lass (12/1)

The 5th race is a State-bred Md Sp Wt 52k for 2-year-old fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  #7 Victory Dancer is an interesting daughter of Victory Gallop who finished 2nd in her debut for trainer Bob Baffert. With the scratches of the 5 and 10 horses, this looks like the logical play to me.  #8 Keep Active is a debut runner for the very hot Carla Gaines barn.  Victor Espinoza is signed on and note that he does some superb running for Gaines.  #4 Jet Set Lass is a daughter of a usable win early sire In Excess.  The only trouble is that trainer Thomas Blincoe is something of an unknown to me and hasn’t won with a debut runner yet in 5 tries.  There are some decent workouts for this miss, so don’t be too doubtful if she looks live in the post parade.

Race 6:

• #8 Little Boss Chick (8/5*)
• #4 Sayit (7/2)
• #7 Asian Eyes (10/1)

The 6th race is a competitive looking 59000N1X Allowance for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track.  #8 Little Boss Chick is the obvious horse to beat here. She hasn’t really run a bad race and was beaten by the impressive Magnificence late last out.  She’s also faced the talented Placid Lake.  I don’t see anyone of that caliber in here tonight.  #4 Sayit has really improved nicely.  This horse has a bit of a sentimental story behind his name.  If you haven’t heard it yet, I won’t spoil it for the TVG announcers as they’ll no doubt mention it during the post parade.  Even the track announcer says this horse’s name in a specific fashion.  It’ll all make sense once you know the story.  Now, about the horse – she’s obviously moving forward nicely and it would be no surprise if she moved through this level at first asking.  I just thought LIttle Boss Chick might be a tad tough to defeat in her first start against winners.  #7 Asian Eyes – well, with a Chinese wife, I’d probably be ridiculed all day if this horse ran big and I didn’t use her.  All kidding aside, I thought she could run a big one here. #1 Unusually Hot also looks interesting to me. I was between these two for third choice.  I’m not sure I’d use either on the pick 6 if you’re trying to keep cost down, but if you’ve got the dough to go a bit deep – you might want to here.

Race 7:

• #10 Awesome Gem (5/1)
• #8 Becrux (7/2*)
• #1 Porto Santo (5/1)

The 7th and feature race of the night is the 19th running of the Wickerr Handicap for $85,000 going 1 mile over the turf.  #8 Becrux won this race last year and has to be considered…but – he hasn’t won since then and comes off two disappointing efforts in a row in Japan and Hollywood.  #10 Awesome Gem was of course the show horse in the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Classic behind- well, you know who.  You have to look far back to find his last turf effort (12/26/06), but low and behold – it was a pretty darn good one.  I think this guy’s running style fits really well here.  I don’t want anyone near the lead right now on the Del Mar turf.  I just have loads more faith in the closers right now on the grass.  Awesome Gem looks to be the best late runner of the field…if he takes to the turf of course. There’s numerous directions to go underneath the top two.  Lang Field is playable, as is Porto Santo (even off the layoff), and I’d probably toss in One Union and Stoneside on the bottom of the trifectas as well. 

Race 8:

• #10 Lord Albion (4/1)
• #9 Jamie (8/1)
• #4 Celtic Sword (6/1)

We wind up with a 10000 Claimer for four-year-olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track.  I’m all over the place in this one.  I do like #10 Lord Albion best of the field.  I like that last effort. I like the 3 wins in 5 starts at today’s distance.  I am a bit worried about rust coming off that long layoff, but I’m reassured by two victories off rests that I can see in the past performances.   Jack Carava drops him down for his lowest tag yet, and he’s seen fit to reclaim him before.  It’s tonight or never again for the 10 year old (that’s right – this is a 10 year old, do keep that in mind).  #9 Jamie is another that’s seen better days.  He did manage to wire the field at this level two races back, anddueled with a repeat winner last time out.  I wouldn’t discount him tonight.  He’ll probably not be on the lead today as #7 Evolution looks like the speed of the speed, but it’s possible.  #4 Celtic Sword can close like a gang-buster if he gets solid fractions to run at.  Plus, it’s hard to ignore Gomez and Canani – even if Gomez has seemed to have a slight case of seconditis lately.  You know this guy’s too good for that to continue much longer, and he has been in the winners circle this week.  Look for Celtic Sword to be moving well late.  Between you and I – I really like how closers have been moving on this track so far.

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and changes.  Best of luck to everyone – but don’t forget to save some cash for Saratoga on Saturday. 

Saratoga - Race 5

#1 MARKET AT MIDDAY / #1A SMARTY MARTY

This is a safe play, but I believe a good one, none-the-less.

Taking the coupled entry in the fifth race at Saratoga Thursday includes a quality second-time starter and an offspring of SMARTY JONES.

The first is MARKET AT MIDDAY, who didn’t quite make the lead in her first start, but still managed to finish a game third, setting an impressive 94 BRIS speed figure in that run.  She is quite capable of winning in her second try.

SMARTY MARTY has a terrible name, but her mother has seven winners from seven starters, and her father is obviously Smarty Jones, who has sired one winner already in his young sire career.

I’ll take both of them.

$10.00 to Win – #1 Market At Midday / #1A Smarty Marty
$10.00 to Place – #1 Market At Midday / #1A Smarty Marty
$10.00 to Show – #1 Market At Midday / #1A Smarty Marty

Saratoga - Race 9

#4 NOTONTHESAMEPAGE

The feature race at Saratoga Thursday is the 150k grade 2 Sanford Stakes for two-year-olds.

Every entry in the Sanford Stakes is coming off a winning performance and most of the entries are undefeated colts.  It’s a quality field and many of these young colts have exhibited some early speed.

There is a significant speed bias at Saratoga at six furlongs and that could be accentuated by the weather this week, which has been, and continues to be on the wet-side.  Therefore, it is hard not to favor the speedier horses in this six furlong sprint.

NOTONTHESAMEPAGE will be the favorite, but I can’t ignore him.  His works have been nothing short of phenomenal for a 2-year-old and even with all of the opposing speed, he should be on the front.  If so, he’s going to be hard to catch and if anyone is able to go with him, his works and the 107 BRIS Speed Figure he put up in his last race seem to suggest he can outlast them.

Whoever does win this race is going to be a two-year-old to keep an eye on throughout the fall.

$10.00 to Win – #4 Notonthesamepage
$10.00 to Place – #4 Notonthesamepage
$10.00 to Show – #4 Notonthesamepage

Del Mar - Race 2

#6 ZANDA BLUE

For a turf race, there is quite a bit of speed in this one. 

Likely favorite, HARMONY CREATOR comes into the race with a wire-to-wire victory in only her second turf start; however, the early pace numbers show she didn’t need to expend much to get a 2 1/2 length head-start in that race.  She does have one synthetic victory by coming from off the pace, but generally she has done poorly when she is not on the lead.

Harmony Creator will face speed from GOODBYE LUCY on the rail and from GREAT GRACE to her immediate outside.  It will be very difficult for her to carry her speed to victory this time around and I would expect a bounce performance; likewise, the pace scenario bodes poorly for her other speedy rivals, who will face similar circumstances.

Of those most likely to be coming from off the pace, which the Del Mar turf course is playing favorably toward, the one with the most appealing late pace numbers is Zanda Blue, even though she has yet to race on a grass surface.  Her running-style seems to beckon the turf and she improved quite a bit extending out to a route distance in her last race, breaking her maiden in her third career start.  She has plenty of room to improve and her trainer, Thomas Bell, is having the majority of his success on turf, especially with dirt-to-turf starters.

The other possible play is LULLABYTIME, who is also lightly raced, and could also improve.  Lullabytime also won in her third career start last time out and is also racing on grass for the first-time, but unlike Zanda Blue, she has yet to race past six-and-a-half furlongs and her late pace numbers are not quite as favorable as Zana Blue’s.  Therefore, I believe Zanda Blue is the pick here and probably the best bet of the day.

$10.00 to Win – #6 Zanda Blue
$10.00 to Place – #6 Zanda Blue
$10.00 to Show – #6 Zanda Blue

Season / Last Week Summary:

NORTHERN RODES was a scratch last Thursday, which is too bad, because I really thought she was a good play in that spot.

WESTERN LEGEND went of an incredible 53/1 at post-time, and for the life of me, I still don’t understand why he was so ignored.  He finished third and paid a respectable $16.00.  It was a good long-shot play.

DISTANT VICTORY won at Del Mar and helped boost last Thursday’s profits.

Last Week: +$78.00
Season Total: +$70.50

The Virginia Derby is a hard race for me to wager on, as I actually like several of the entries for Saturday’s feature race.  However, I see some betting opportunities for the two stake races leading up to the Virginia Derby, one of which is the grade 3 Virginia Oaks.

Colonial Downs – Race 7 – Kitten’s Joy Stakes

#2 – MINT SLEWLEP

Mint Slewlep won his first career race on the turf over the Colonial Downs surface the last time out, coming from off the pace with a BRIS speed figure of 94.  He also had two solid races in April, setting two speed figures in the triple-digits.  That’s good enough to challenge any of his rivals in this spot, including favorite BALLAST.

Ballast is a solid horse, with a grade 3 win the last time out, but prior to that race, he also had a string of five races without a victory.   I’m going to try to beat him here and go with Mint Slewlep, who is younger and getting 5/1 morning-line odds.

Colonial Downs – Race 8 – Virginia Oaks

#4 – ATHENA’S GIFT

Athena’s Gift has one second and two wins in three career turf starts. She’s won her last two starts with respectable speed figures, demonstrating she belongs among this group, even though she has yet to run against stakes competition.

The Oaks should feature enough pace for her to have something to run at late in the race, and her running lines are what I like to see on turf.  Here late pace numbers are solid and she’s figured out how to win in the last few months.  Getting 8/1 odds, I’ll take them, and expect she’ll get her third victory in a row. 

She also shares the name of my wife, so how can I bet against that?

Colonial Downs – Race 9 – Virginia Derby

#2 – OLD MAN BUCK

The Virginia Derby has a severe lack of pace and I believe several entries could potentially run well. 

I’ll bet against SAILOR’S CAP in this one.  The turf course should be playing firm-to-hard this Saturday and I think that will contribute to a major bounce for Sailor’s Cap coming out of the Colonial Turf Cup.

Old Man Buck looks like the value play.  The pace looks like it will be slow, and Old Man Buck has the versatility to get the lead early or take over a bit late and still win.  He’ll be my top selection, but I would also consider GIO PONTI and it wouldn’t surprise me if COURT VISION runs well.

However, I don’t like the odds on Gio Ponti and though the talent is there for Court Vision, I simply don’t trust him enough to back him with a win wager.

BALTIMORE BOB seems awfully intriguing too.  I’m not sure he is talented enough to win, and you can call me crazy, but I have a feeling we’re going to see a strong performance from him this weekend.  I think he finishes in the money somewhere.

SELECTIONS:

$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9) : #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #2 Old Man Buck
$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9):  #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #4 Court Vision
$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9):  #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #5 Baltimore Bob
$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9):  #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #7 Gio Ponti

$10.00 Win – Race 7 – #2 Mint Slewlep
$10.00 Place - Race 7 – #2 Mint Slewlep
$10.00 Show - Race 7 – #2 Mint Slewlep

$10.00 Win – Race 8 – #4 Athena’s Gift
$10.00 Place - Race 8 – #4 Athena’s Gift
$10.00 Show - Race 8 – #4 Athena’s Gift

$10.00 Win – Race 9 – #2 Old Man Buck
$10.00 Place - Race 9 – #2 Old Man Buck
$10.00 Show - Race 9 – #2 Old Man Buck

TOTAL BUDGET: $505.00
WAGER TOTAL: $98.00
ADJUSTED BUDGET: $407.00

Belmont – Race 2

#6 NORTHERN RODES

Northern Rodes has shown a propensity for wanting to run up-front, and despite some strong early pace numbers, she has had difficulty getting there, running in second many times.  This is probably due to the sprint fields Northern Rodes has been exposed to, but I think she is the lone speed here.

She turned in a good work this past week and was asked to go hard, so I think she is being prepared to go to the front in this one.

E-style and E/P-style runners are winning these races at a 76% clip.  Northern Rodes is a good bet in this spot and I think she’ll win race 2 Thursday.  She’s morning-line 9/2, and is definitely my best bet of the day.

$10.00 to Win – #6 Northern Rodes
$10.00 to Place – #6 Northern Rodes
$10.00 to Show – #6 Northern Rodes

Belmont - Race 4

#9 – WESTERN LEGEND

The betting opportunities on Thursday are thin, so I’m going to go chasing big odds in the  fourth race at Belmont, which features an entire field of first-time starters.

Western Legend’s Dam has two winners from two starters, including a stake winner.  He is bred through Mr. Greeley and Affirmed, so the blood lines are there for him to be a good one.

He’s had two good works over Aqueduct’s plastic dirt track and at 20/1, why not?  Give a gelding a chance.

$10.00 to Win – #9 Western Legend
$10.00 to Place – #9 Western Legend
$10.00 to Show – #9 Western Legend

Del Mar – Race 7

#7 – DISTANT VICTORY

Distant Victory is entering the third race of her career Thursday, and will try to pick up her second win. 

Coming off a solid work last week and a win last time out at the same distance she’ll be trying Thursday, she has a excellent chance of improving. 

Carla Gaines is winning more than 25% of the time under similar circumstances and finishing in the money nearly half.

$10.00 to Win – #7 Distant Victory
$10.00 to Place – #7 Distant Victory
$10.00 to Show – #7 Distant Victory

Season / Last Week Summary:

PIPER’s FORT missed the board.  SPRING ELUSION finished second for a $52.50 payoff.  EL SULTRY SUN was scratched in favor of the Virginia Derby this coming weekend.

Last Week: -$7.50
Season Total: -$7.50

After giving this venture some thought over the last couple days, I’ve determined the only way for this blog to be successful over the long haul is to provide some sort of consistency to my coverage.

I’ve been tracking the larger races throughout the spring and summer, but haven’t been doing so on any sort of established schedule.  That is about to change.

Going forward, I’m going to continue to post information on the races I have the most interest in and track my selections using an established budget I set back in April.

As of right now, I’m up an incredible $5.00 since I began tracking my picks on this blog.  Impressive, I know, but better than being in the red.  My current budget is $505.00.

On the horizon for me are the Virginia Derby (July 19th), the Whitney Handicap (July 26th), the Jim Dandy Stakes (July 27th), the Haskell Invitational (August 3rd) and the Sword Dancer Invitational (August 16th).  I’ll post a formal schedule, which I’ll refer to as my ‘Racing Watch List’ so everyone is aware of the races I’m expecting to track for the foreseeable future.

The Travers Stakes on July 23rd is questionable for me due to a vacation conflict scheduled for Travers week. I’m sure I’ll be posting notes leading up to the mid-summer derby, but I’m not sure if I’ll be able to offer a selection for the Travers.  We’ll have to see about that one.

I’m also going to be unveiling a new feature to the blog called the Thursday 3.

This new feature will highlight my three best picks every Thursday across any number of tracks and I’ll be tracking these selections under a separate budget.

The rules for the Thursday 3 will be much tighter than my feature race coverage.  Each race will include a single selection, and that selection will be measured by a win, place, and show wager of $10.00.  So in other words, I’ll be wagering $90.00 each Thursday across three races.

The Thursday 3 should provide a consistentfeature to the blog that can be counted on each week, which I think will have a very positive impact on the blog’s overall value.  So look for the Thursday 3 to make its debut this week.

I’m also working on a few other wrinkles for the near future, but those will be announced on a later date.

The one race I supported J BE K in was the Louisiana Derby back in March.  That day, I had him win, place and show, and it was the only race in his career so far that he has finished worse than second.

Bitter?  Ok, maybe a little.

But J BE K is a good horse and I’ve come to be a follower of sorts.  However, he’ll certainly have his hands full this Friday in a small, but quality field for the running of the grade 3 Jersey Shore Stakes at Monmouth.

I have a feeling GO GO SHOOT, breaking from the rail, will run with J Be K early, making it hard for either of them to get loose on front.  In order for J Be K to overcome that scenario, he’ll need to prove he is significantly better than the rest of his rivals.  Maybe he is, but I wouldn’t take his short odds.

SILVER EDITION is the logical choice to catch the leaders should they tire in the stretch.

Silver Edition ran second to J Be K last time out, failing to close on him in the stretch.  J Be K was the better horse that day, but with the presence of Go Go Shoot, the pace should favor Silver Edition more this time around.

Not sure if the pace help is enough, but Silver Edition has a win and two seconds in his last three races.  He is working well leading up to the Jersey Shore and could break through for a win over J Be K here.

INDY JOE is the other logical winner, having a win over Monmouth last time out in the Rumson Stakes on a muddy surface. I’d be less inclined to support Indy Joe though, as his wins have also come very close to the pace, and with both Go Go Shoot and J Be K likely fighting for the lead, there won’t be much room for a third.

Indy Joe has the disadvantage of breaking on the outside.  Even though it is a short field, that could be enough to toss him given the other speed in the race.

This one is going to be an entertaining one to watch.  If I had to pick a winner, I’d probably go with Silver Edition here, though I could see J Be K winning on his class alone, or I could see a surprise upset coming from Go Go Shoot, if he were to get a jump on the field from the rail.

J Be K might be a bounce candidate. 

Go Go Shoot could surprise, but I’d want 10/1 or better, and in this short field, that simply isn’t realistic.

So I’d have to go with Silver Edition here, and hope he chases them down from behind.  Not a very good betting race unless you are including it in a multiple pick wager.

Belmont – Race 1

PELELIU is lightly raced compared to the majority of the field.  His main competition for the lead is ALL ABOUT to his direct inside.

All About has not raced well at Belmont and is coming off a bad effort at Big Sandy just two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, Peleliu has been on a break and comes into this race off a solid work just one week ago.  He had a similar work back in February right before he romped a $50,000 claiming field by seven lengths.

Peleliu is backed by Wesley Ward and John Velazquez will pilot.  I’ll take the 7/2 odds, assume Peleliu makes the lead, and wins going away.

Belmont – Race 2

Hard to not like MISS BODINE in this one.  When Bob Baffert ships a horse east and away from his home base, you tend to pay attention.

Miss Bodine is very well bred.  She is out of 2-year-old undefeated champion VINDICATION, who is out of SEATTLE SLEW.  Vindication has had a lot of success in his early stud career, with wins coming 20% of the time for his first-time starters.

Miss Bodine’s broodmare, GUILDED TIMES, has seven winners from eleven starters; three of which have been stake winners.

Miss Bodine has worked well at Santa Anita, has one work over the Belmont track, and I’ve always liked Baffert with young horses. She’ll be short-priced, but she looks like a winner.

Belmont – Race 3

I’ll take the potential lone speed in CALL TIGER.

A lightly raced three-year-old with room to improve has a shot at getting the lead here, and the gelding has never lost when he’s had it.

At morning-line odds of 8/1, this is a good opportunity to boost the pick 4 between races two and five.

Belmont – Race 4

As already stated, I like SEAN AVERY in this one.  I like the breeding, I like the works, I like the jockey, and I like the 6/1 price.  Plus it’s a great pick to kick-off the pick 6.

Belmont – Race 5

Barclay Tagg sends SWEETEST KISS out in this $35,000 claiming turf race, which is the same level she handled by three-lengths last time out.

She is capable of speed figures in the low 90’s, which is better than anyone else in the field.  Her closest competition will be trying turf for the first time, while Sweetest Kiss is coming off her best race over the same surface she’ll run on Thursday.

Edgar Coa has been lethal for Tagg, winning a third of all of his races with the trainer.  Sweetest Kiss will be the favorite, but sometimes you just can’t back anyone else in the field, and the favorites are the way to go.

Belmont – Race 8

I have to stay with the favorites in race 8, and go with POSITIVE PROSPECT.

The Belmont turf is playing to the closers and there is enough speed in the field for the race to unravel for Positive Prospect.

Her last outing was over the Belmont turf and she had a strong move late in the race to secure that win.  Here speed figures are consistently in the 80’s, and that should be enough to win this one.

HOPE STREET is a threat, but is trying turf for the first-time.  I expect DRESSED TO WIN to hang tough, but she is a bounce candidate, and the turf bias doesn’t play to her favor.

Summary

I’ll likely play the pick 4 between races two and five tomorrow.  That ticket will look like this:

$2.00 Pick 4 – Races 2 – 5
R2: #5 Miss Bodine
R3: #4 Call Tiger
R4: #4 Sean Avery
R5: #4 Sweetest Kiss

I’ll probably also throw some support at Peleliu in the first to see if I can get the day started on a positive note. 

If that goes well, I’ll play the pick 6, building a ticket around the horses I’ve identified in races 4, 5 and 8.

Then I’ll play Sean Avery in the fourth, and if that goes well, carry the momentum over into the fifth.  I think those two races are the best bets of the day.

We’ll see.

Saturday was supposed to be a chance to showcase the talents of one of the best older horses in the country, Heatseeker, in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup.  Instead, the heavy favorite has scratched, leaving the field a bit more wide open.  Racing fans should still be treated to one of the stars of the California circuit when Daytona takes to the track in the Grade 2 American Handicap.  In addition, we’ve got 11 races that I must say look quite competitive on paper. 

All in all it should still be a great betting day, even if a “free square” in the multi-race exotics like Heatseeker has scratched. In fact, some of the races are so close that I’ve listed additional horses beyond the usual 3 I give out.  It’s that close trying to separate some of these guys.

Race 1:Md Sp Wt 62k F+M 3↑ (6 Furlongs – Turf)

• #9 Solar Miss (5/2*)
• #3 Sleepin’ In (7/2)
• #1 Gloria Goodbody (8/1)

We open up with a decent maiden special weight race on the turf. Solar Miss and Sleepin’ In look like the top two. I went with Solar Miss as Sleepin’ In tends to fade when it counts. Solar Miss should get the better trip from the outside in my opinion andwill get her nose over the wire for the win. Sleepin’ In will be right behind at the wire after fading late.  I thought Gloria Goodbody had as good a chance as any to be coming late through the stretch for a minor share.  True Bella, Dolly Daggers, and Unusual Strike warrant some underneath consideration depending on how they look in the post parade.

Race 2: Md Sp Wt 62K 3↑ (7 Furlongs)

• #6 Ksar Ghilane (4/1)
• #4 Star Time (3/1)
• #2 Victory’s Cry (4/1)
• # 5 Yankee Station (5/2*)

I know, I’ve listed 4 horses in my selections.  What gives?  Honestly I couldn’t separate these guys without guessing. Point being, I think you should cover all of these numbers if playing the early pick 4.  I like Ksar Ghilane to turn in an improved performance after busting through the gate last time out. Maybe that last Beyer figure darkens his form just enough that we catch a price?  Star Time had a very useful debut posting an 87 Beyer speed figure and looks another good one for Bob Baffert.  Victor’s Cry gets an experience edge with 4 races under his belt – including 3 good enough to win here today.  It looks like his most complete race came at 7 furlongs two back.  The favorite is Yankee Station, who adds blinkers today and cannot be discarded.  He’s been right there in the mix in both career starts and has room to move forward. 

Race 3: Clm 40000 4↑ (6 Furlongs – Turf)

• #2 Giovanni (2/1*)
• #7 Carman (5/2)
• #1 Irish Ty (4/1)

This one looks easy to me on paper – which admittedly makes me nervous.  Giovanni looks like he should be able to get an easy lead over this field, despite some pressure from Irish Ty to his inside.  I could see this race being a merry-go-round with the top 3 finishes being 1-2-3 or close to that the entire way around the track.  I spiced things up a little by predicting Carman would charge late and get up for 2nd.  If the pace is a bit hotter than the race may well fall into Carman’s lap.  As such I’d go at least two deep here in the multi-race wagers.  Irish Ty I thought would hold on for a share either battling Giovanni or more likely being just off him.  Drawing the rail may force him into a pace duel though – then the question will be whether he can even run with Giovani to begin with.  Maybe, but likely not.

Race 4: The Landaluce $100k F-2YO (6 Furlongs)

• #3 Glitter City (3/1)
• #7 Trifecta King (5/2)
• #8 Cosmic Queen (2/1*)

Another tough race for handicappers.  Glitter City exits two solid efforts including a 93 Beyer to break her maiden at the special weight level.  A repeat would crush that field, but was that a freak effort?  Trifecta King exits a listed stakes win in the Cinderella against some of today’s foes.  I can’t come up with any reason to toss this gal either.  Cosmic Queen is listed as the favorite coming off a maiden score which saw her defeat Trifecta King that also produced a return winner in the show horse Streamin Heat.  Would be hard not to cove her name either.  Two others horses that deserve long looks are Atka (who has defeated top choice Glitter City) and Emmy Darling, who ran second to top choice Glitter City.  See how tough this one is to decipher?

Edit: Trifeca King has scratched with 2 hours to post time in race 1 – I’d move Cosmic Queen up to 2nd and make either Atka or Emmy Darling third choice.  I tend to favor Atka at the moment, but I’d cover all 4 of them (Glitter City, Atka, Emmy Darling, and Cosmic Queen) in the early Pick 4.

Race 5: The American Handicap – Grade 2 (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)

• #7 Daytona (8/5*)
• #5 Hyperbaric (5/2)
• #2 Storm Military (7/2)

Daytona, Daytona, Daytona.  This one is all about Daytona.  Barring a bizarre occurrence, this appears to be the easiest race to predict.  Depending on how you look at things, it’s either a shame not to have this “free square” in the pick 4/pick 6 sequences or it’s a blessing in disguise from a betting value standpoint.  Me, I’d like the free square as I like to keep costs down.  Hyperbaric looked like the logical rival here today with the best chance.  I liked Storm Military for show, but would also consider Becrux and Albertus Maximus as they stand similar chances and have much better odds.

Edit: With roughly 2 hours to post Albertus Maximus has been scratched.  This race should still be all about Daytona, but I think you can now substitute Worldy in for Albertus Maximus at the bottom of exotics.  Daytona -Hyperbaric still seems the obvious one-two.  Storm Military, Worldly, and maybe Becrux underneath if he doesn’t look rusty.

Race 6: Alw 66000 N1X (7 Furlongs)

• #7 Usurp (5/2*)
• #5 Bullsby (8/1)
• #2 Cost of Freedom (7/2)

Another tough race awaits bettors venturing into the pick 6 sequence.   Usurp has the standout Beyer figure of a whopping 100, so don’t expect any value here at all.  If you’re looking to beat him, he is moving up a notch in class today, so perhaps a runner like Cost of Freedom could defeat him?  It’s not likely, but it’s possible.  Bullsbay looked headed in the right direction to me and has never missed the exacta in 4 career starts. Well, if you discount the disqualification in his debut that is.  Two other horses that looked playable to me are Black Wolf and Cherokee Tear. I ranked them just a notch lower but won’t be surprised at all if they score here.

Race 7: Alw 40000s (7 1/2 Furlongs)

• #7 Pictural (5/2*)
• #6 Dr. J J (4/1)
• #2 Warren’s Operator (6/1)

These starter allowance races can be tricky ones as it’s hard to decipher who exactly is in the best form.  Pictural appears to standout a bit with some of his Beyer speed figures – but not by much.  There aren’t many to chose from in true winning form in this race, but two that I thought could possibly upset were Dr J J and Warren’s Operator as they both exit victories over maiden claimers.  Theoretically the waters deepen today against other horses that have won maiden claimers, but as none of them outside of Pictural looks particularly impressive, I”ll take their recent form as my 2nd and 3rd choices.  Candy Pull also looks useful – although I’ll likely keep him underneath on the trifecta.

Race 8: OC 62K/N2X (7 Furlongs)

• #5 Barbecue Eddie (7/2*)
• #6 Valiant Effort (5/1)
• #12 Secret Shuttle (9/2)

Barbecue Eddie highlights the field of this conditional optional claimer.  I’m perplexed that he’s only a 7/2 favorite because if the Barbecue Eddie we’ve seen so far this year in both the U.S. an Dubai shows up, this one isn’t even close.  In fact, as far as the late pick 4 goes, I think Eddie is  your logical single.  Secret Shuttle is in good recent form with 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts and should be a factor before all is said and done.  I thought Valiant Effort had every right to wind up in the money as well.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Forest Phantom ran a big one as well, although I’m  a little worried about breaking from the rail.

Race 9: The A Gleam Handicap – Grade 2 (7 Furlongs)

• #9 Intangaroo (9/2*)
• #6 Tiz Elemental (5/1)
• #10 Magnificience (7/2*)

I seem to like another lukewarm favorite here in Intangaroo.  That’s okay though. Like a modern day Rodney Dangerfield, the betting action throughout Intangaroo’s career shows that she gets no respect – despite winning 3 of her last 4 starts.  She’s fresh today and training well.  Magnificience is the x-factor challenger.  She’s got 3 very impressive career races under her belt and would appear to match up well with Intangaroo.  I could see a great stretch battle between these two today.  Tiz Elemental shouldn’t be discarded either - do note that she’s beaten Intangaroo before, as well as another filly I’m fond of named Glorified.  Romance is Diane would be the ultimate thief here.  Might she get on the lead and try to wire the field? It’s a longshot, but those hoping for bombs might just fire away at 8/1.

Race  10: The Holywood Gold Cup – Grade 1 (1 1/4 Miles)

• #4 Tiago (3/1)
• #7 Go Between ( 5/2*)
• #1 Mast Track (12/1)

The feature race of the day is the 69th running of the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup.  We were supposed to get Heatseeker here and I doubt he could’ve been stopped if he was good to go.  Instead a hoof problem scratches the favorite and we’re left with a bit of a head scratcher.  Rather than make this overly complicated, I trusted my gut that this would be a two horse race between Go Between and Tiago.  I gave Tiago a slight nod here, although I don’t think he can allow himself any traffic problems in the stretch.  He may have to be more forwardly placed today , say around mid pack in the early running.  Mast Track would appear to have a  chance to wire the field from the rail.  I’m not expecting swift fractions here, and that would seem to play into his favor and against horses like Tiago and Go Between.  Student Council is interesting here as well.  He can seemingly do it all: dirt, turf, synthetics – and he’s pulled upsets before.  Big Booster looks like a horse you’d have to use underneath in the trifecta.

Race 11: Md Sp Wt 62K (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #10 Ima Offended (9/2)
• #2 Chimera Star (7/2*)
• #3 Smooch Me (8/1)
• #11 Ampys Lil Girl (4/1)
• #9 Hot Little Bug (8/1)

Yup, that’s 5 horses I’ve got up there – and for good reason. Any one of them could win this thing.  Either cover ‘em all or pick your poison.  There’s not much to go on here besides jockey/trainer stats and limited recent form – most of which look good for the guys listed above.  This should be a good one to close out the day.

Best of luck and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.

I’m expecting the Colonial Turf Cup to be a very competitive race this weekend, with any number of horses having a shot to win.

A case can be made for several, and I expect the public to support multiple entries, which means there will be a lot of value regardless of whom one might favor.

I personally favor SPORTING ART at 5/1 morning-line odds.

Sporting Art is a turf veteran, with two wins and one second out of four races as a 3-year-old.  Both of his wins in 2008 were among grade 3 competition, so he carries a lot of class into Saturday’s race.

His trainer, Christopher Clement wins around 25% of his races in this situation, and finishes in the money more than 50% of the time.  I also don’t have any concerns with his jockey Javier Castellano, who is solid in the stirrups.

Sporting Art will break from post-position four, and should get a favorable trip.  With the lack of pace in the Colonial Turf Cup and the equally talented field, I see the potential for the field to bunch up at the top of the stretch, which could lead to a blanket-style finish.

A competitive race is favorable for Sporting Art, who has three wins by a neck and another neck finish for second.  Sporting Art has never been worse than 5th, and has raced in several large fields before.

It’s hard to make a second-choice, as any number of others could figure into the race.  BOSS LAFITTE could run surprising well in this spot.  EL SULTRY SUN also has some positives.  KENTUCKY BEAR scares me, because I feel he could have some hidden talent he has yet to fully show, but he comes with a lot of risk.

I don’t particularly like the ex-Derby Horses, and I’m glad they are in this field to take some money.  It wouldn’t surprise me if COURT VISION finishes in the money, but I don’t like his chances to win.  I expect ADRIANO to be a complete flop this weekend.

With so much value, it’s hard not to play one trifecta-box just to take a stab at a big pool; so with that said, here are my Colonial Turf Selections:

Grade 3 - Colonial Turf Cup
June 21, 2008 – RACE 9
Distance: 1 3/16 miles
For 3-year-olds

1. El Sultry Sun (118 lbs.) – 12/1
2. Court Vision (116 lbs.) – 9/2
3. Your Round (116 lbs.) – 20/1
4. Sporting Art (120 lbs.) – 5/1
5. Baltimore Bob (116 lbs.) – 30/1
6. Nistle’s Crunch (116 lbs.) – 8/1
7. Kentucky Bear (116 lbs.) – 8/1
8. Boss Lafitte (120 lbs.) – 15/1
9. Sailor’s Cap (116 lbs.) – 7/2
10. Adriano (120 lbs.) – 3/1

Selections:

$20.00 To Win – #4 Sporting Art
$20.00 To Place – #4 Sporting Art
$20.00 To Show – #4 Sporting Art
$2.00 Trifecta-Box – #1 El Sultry Sun / #4 Sporting Art / #8 Boss Lafitte

TOTAL BUDGET: $577.00
WAGER TOTAL: $72.00
ADJUSTED BUDGET: $505.00

ADRIANO, riding his fame from the Lanes End Stakes, looks to be the favorite for Saturday’s running of the grade 3 Colonial Turf Cup at Colonial Downs.

At 3/1 morning-line odds, Adriano is the lukewarm favorite.  I expect those odds to hold, or even improve, as the public takes their shot at the tote board Saturday.  Adriano might still go off as the betting favorite, but there are many other possible contenders in the field.

As mentioned before, Adriano was the winner of the 2008 Lanes End Stakes back in March, and that race was used as his final prep for the Kentucky Derby.  He was great on the Turfway polytrack, winning by 2 1/2 lengths and setting a 101 Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) speed figure.

But Adriano has been far from consistant and I’m not sure his recent performances or works dictate making him the favorite in this one.  He could surprise me, but there is simply too much value in the rest of the field.

COURT VISION is the other ex-Derby horse entered in the Colonial Turf Cup this weekend, and he has been assigned morning-line odds of 9/2.

One of the things I look for when horses make their first start on turf is their late pace numbers, especially in past races which featured a lot of pace.

The 2008 Wood Memorial provides a perfect example.  In the Wood, INNER LIGHT was entered as a rabbit to derail WAR PASS, and that created a blistering pace.  The track was also reported to be deep that particular day.

This should have been the perfect scenario for Court Vision, but he still only managed to finish third, and War Pass still out-finished him.  In my opinion, that performance was very disappointing and is reason enough to avoid supporting Court Vision at 9/2.

EL SULTRY SUN is three for five lifetime on turf.  His speed figures are a bit low, but with only five career races, he could step forward.  His works have been very good recently, and he might be primed for a big win Saturday.  At 12/1, he seems like a bargain, but I don’t think those odds will hold.

YOUR ROUND hasn’t won since breaking his maiden eight races ago, but has hit the board three of the last four times.  His speed figures are more in the sweet spot of where they need to be to win this race and he is returning to the turf for the first time in several races.  At the very least, the exotics might be considered for Your Round.

SPORTING ART has a lot to like.  He has two wins in his last three races, all of which have come on turf.  He has three wins by a neck and another neck finish for second, which I think is a major positive going into this weekend, because without much pace to run at, there is a good shot of a blanket-style finish; so I like a horse that has shown some moxy in the past.  At morning-line 5/1, he seems like a live play.

BALTIMORE BOB is too slow and is one I feel comfortable eliminating.  He might end up being the pace-setter this Saturday, but I don’t view that as being a good thing.

NISTLE’s CRUNCH is a solid entry and could figure into the race somewhere.  I personally prefer others, but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see Nistle’s Crunch run well this weekend.  He is also a possible pace-setter, which once again, I don’t think is a good thing.

Saturday will KENTUCKY BEAR’s first run on turf and he could improve.  He’s had a couple of rough trips since breaking his maiden, and while I’d like to have seen him be more competitive in his recent races, he certainly has some talent.

Kentucky Bear is working well, and of the Triple Crown veterans, I actually prefer him over Adriano and Court Vision.

BOSS LAFITTE is yet another entry I wouldn’t be surprised to see run well this Saturday.  Boss Lafitte has four career wins, including a grade 3, and his last win came in an impressive worst-to-first run.  However, It should be noted that two of those wins came in races moved from turf-to-dirt due to weather.

Boss Lafitte is working well and provides a lot of value at 15/1.

And then finally we have SAILOR’s CAP, who is another possible pace-setter among this field and comes in with a short price at 7/2.  Honestly, I’m not sure where the 7/2 valuation comes from and would expect that number to slip on Saturday.

Sailor’s Cap has two wins in six races, and recently ran well in the grade 3 American Turf at Churchill Downs, but his speed figures are ho-hum, he hasn’t raced in 50-days, and the outside post hurts a bit.  At 7/2, I have to look elsewhere.

Free past performances for this race can be found here.

I’ll post a formal selection sometime tomorrow.

Three Triple Crown runners are expected to enter this Saturday’s Grade 3 $600,000 Colonial Cup at Colonial Downs.  The Colonial Cup is part of a four race series.

The second stage is the July 19th Grade 2 Virginia Derby also at Colonial Downs, the third stage is the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park on August 9th, and the series is completed on Breeder’s Cup Day, which is scheduled this year for October 25th at Santa Anita (Oak Tree).

ADRIANO, COURT VISION and KENTUCKY BEAR are the three classic runners expected to contest the Colonial Cup.  They are expected to be joined by EL SULTRY SUN, YOUR ROUND, SPORTING ART, BALTIMORE BOB, NISTLE’s CRUNCH, BOSS LAFITTE and SAILER’s CAP.

I’ll be tracking the race throughout the week.

The Stephen Foster Handicap didn’t unfold quite the way I thought it would.  I thought there was a significant chance EINSTEIN would have gone to the lead Saturday.  He didn’t, but still worked himself through traffic in a gutty performance to get up for second.

Meanwhile, CURLIN showed why he is the best horse in the world.  No surprise there.

(5/1/2008): $500.00
Kentucky Oaks: -$90.00
Kentucky Derby: -$104.00
Preakness Stakes: +$180.00
Belmont Stakes: +$93.00
Stephen Foster H.: -$2.00
Net Profit: +$77.00
Remaining Purse: $577.00

The more I examine the Stephen Foster, the more I like EINSTEIN for the win.

I’m willing to forgive his bad race on dirt in February, due to his recent bullet workout at Churchill Downs, where he was the fastest of 31 others.

I also like his running-style for the race, where I think he could be the surprise pace-setter.   With CURLIN, DELIGHTFUL KISS and SAM P. to his inside, I don’t think it will be a problem for Einstein to make the lead should Julien Leparoux desire to take him there. 

And if he does, I think he’ll get a promising rail trip.

Initially, I really wanted to support BARCOLA at at the 20/1 price, but the outside post position has caused me to think twice about it.  Barcola simply isn’t fast enough for me to confidently support his cause, and I have a feeling he’ll pack it in if he doesn’t get to the front.

Other than Einstein and Barcola, I don’t see much other early speed in the race, and its quite possible that whomever gets to the lead is going to walk away with it.  JONESBORO could possibly threaten the front, but with Einstein to his inside, I have more confidence the lead will be Einstein’s for the taking.

With that thought in mind, Einstein is also more versatile, and even if he doesn’t go to the lead early, he’ll still have a good shot at winning by running in a stalking position, where the fractions should be moderate.

Therefore, I’m hoping Einstein makes me look smart this week, and he’s going to be my final selection for the Stephen Foster Handicap.

Grade 1 - Stephen Foster Handicap
June 14, 2008 – RACE 10
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
For 3-year-olds and older

1. Curlin (128 lbs.) - 3/5
2. Delightful Kiss (114 lbs.) – 20/1
3. Sam P. (113 lbs.) – 30/1
4. Einstein (115 lbs.) – 5/1
5. Grasshopper (117 lbs.) – 5/1
6. High Blues (113 lbs.) – 30/1
7. Red Rock Creek (113 lbs.) – 30/1
8. Jonesboro (114 lbs.) – 20/1
9. Barcola (113 lbs.) – 20/1
10. Brass Hat (116 lbs.) – 8/1

Selections:

$20.00 To Win – #4 Einstein
$20.00 To Place - #4 Einstein
$20.00 To Show - #4 Einstein
$5.00 Exacta Box – #4 Einstein / #7 Red Rock Creek

TOTAL BUDGET: $579.00
WAGER TOTAL: $70.00
ADJUSTED BUDGET: $509.00

I’m surprised as anyone that DA’TARA won.  I’m not surprised BIG BROWN lost.

Sure, I can see why Da’Tara was able to pull-away down the stretch now that we can review the race.  I simply didn’t expect the mediocre fractions he set to be enough for him to maintain the lead.  Actually, I’m a bit shocked he was able to stay clear in the early going.

Had Big Brown been sent to the lead early, the race would have turned out much different, and we may have been talking about him as the next Triple Crown winner.

At the very least, Da’Tara wouldn’t have won.  But he did, so congratulations to Wayne Zito for training another Belmont Stakes’ winner.

I’m quite satisfied with Da’Tara being the Belmont Stakes champion.  Big Brown is a nice horse, but I didn’t think he deserved to be mentioned along side some of the sport’s all-time greats.

As for my selection, it wasn’t pretty, but I feel it is was the best option the pari-mutual wagering pool provided.  READY’S ECHO did as I expected, and came home for a piece of the money.

Depending on how you look at it, it was fortunate or unfortunate 3rd-place was ruled a dead-heat.  Had Ready’s Echo finished in the clear, his show-pool payout would have been quite a bit more than the $6.20 he returned.

But I’m not one to complain about a profit.  I’ll fore-go the prestige of selecting the out-right winner any day if it means I’m able to come out ahead in the long-run.

Here is an update on my season thus far.  Thanks to Ready’s Echo, I’m back in the black, and looking forward to some of the bigger races this summer.

(5/1/2008): $500.00
Kentucky Oaks: -$90.00
Kentucky Derby: -$104.00
Preakness Stakes: +$180.00
Belmont Stakes: +$93.00
Net Profit: +$79.00
Remaining Purse: $579.00

It’s not often I totally bomb in the Kentucky Derby.  Even though my top selection in 2007, HARD SPUN, did not win, finishing second was enough to secure a significant profit.

Not so this year, as COLONEL JOHN finished a distant sixth.  The Colonel was the horse I keyed around, so none of my tickets were able to be cashed.  I didn’t fair much better in the Oaks, as GOLDEN DOC A finished fourth, which may as well have been last.

So revisiting my $500.00 budget, I’m now down $194.00, thus leaving my total purse for the Preakness and the Belmont at $306.00.  So this is what I’ll be basing all of my selections around for the remainder of the Triple Crown.

I’ll actually be at the track on Preakness Day, so I’ll have an expanded selection.  Hopefully this will be an positive opportunity, and not a chance to lose additional money.

Kentucky Oaks: -$90.00
Kentucky Derby: -$104.00
Net Profit: -194.00
Total Purse: $306.00

Grade 1 – Kentucky Derby, May 3, 2008 – RACE 10
Distance: 1 1/4th miles
For 3-Year-Olds

1. Cool Coal Man – 20/1
2. Tale of Ekati – 15/1
3. Anak Nakal – 30/1
4. Court Vision – 20/1
5. Eight Belles – 20/1
6. Z Fortune – 15/1
7. Big Truck – 50/1
8. Visionaire – 20/1
9. Pyro – 6/1
10. Colonel John – 4/1
11. Z Humor – 30/1
12. Smooth Air – 20/1
13. Bob Black Jack – 20/1
14. Monba – 15/1
15. Adriano – 30/1
16. Denis of Cork – 20/1
17. Cowboy Cal – 20/1
18. Recapturetheglory - 20/1
19. Gayego – 15/1
20. Big Brown – 3/1

Selections:

$30.00 TO WIN - #10 COLONEL JOHN
$30.00 TO PLACE – #10 COLONEL JOHN
$10.00 EXACTA BOX – #5 EIGHT BELLES / #10 COLONEL JOHN
$10.00 EXACTA BOX – #2 TALE OF EKATI / #10 COLONEL JOHN
$2.00 SUPERFECTA – #10 COLONEL JOHN / #2 TALE OF EKATI / #5 EIGHT BELLES / #19 GAYEGO
$2.00 SUPERFECTA – #10 COLONEL JOHN / #5 EIGHT BELLES / #2 TALE OF EKATI / #19 GAYEGO

TOTAL BUDGET: $410.00
WAGER TOTAL: $104.00
PAYOUT: TBD

As many people do, I’m planning on tracking my picks throughout the Triple Crown on a budget.  I’ll use Hank Goldberg’s model of $500.00 to start with, and hope that I don’t go bankrupt.

Grade 1 – Kentucky Oaks, May 2, 2008 – RACE 10
Distance: 1/8th mile
For 3-Year-Old Fillies

1. Golden Doc A - 12/1
2. Absolutely Cindy – 20/1
3. Awesome Chic – 20/1
4. Elusive Lady – 30/1
5. Rasierra – 50/1
6. Country Star – 4/1
7. Little Belle – 8/1
8. Proud Spell – 7/2
9. A To The Croft – 20/1
10. Bsharpsonata – 6/1
11. Pure Clan – 6/1
12. Eight Belels – 5/2 (EXPECTED SCRATCH)

Selections:

$30.00 TO WIN - #1 GOLDEN DOC A
$30.00 TO PLACE – #1 GOLDEN DOC A
$30.00 TO SHOW – #1 GOLDEN DOC A

TOTAL BUDGET: $500.00
WAGER TOTAL: $90.00
PAYOUT: TBD