As promised in a prior post, I’ve finished the data entry for the Kuchikomi (クチコミ総選挙) election predictions. The Kuchikomi election prediction algorithm was created by hottolink (ホットリンク) and it is based on internet chatter (口コミ). The algorithm parses through information on the internet from mass media to blogs on individual politicians and parties to produce a prediction percentage based on historical data. You can I guess think it as a souped up Google AdPlanner:

候補者個人に関するクチコミと所属政党に関するクチコミを集め、それぞれがどの程度得票率に影響を与えるかを過去の国政選挙をもとに分析し、予測モデルを構築して算出した値が予想得票率です。

In terms of very general results, Kuchikomi had about 80% of the single district seats correct (mind you, they didn’t calculate the proportional representation seat — a whole another issue). Both Asahi and Nikkei newspapers predicted more than 94% of the single district seats correct. But considering Kuchikomi is still new technology, 80% isn’t too bad. But as you’ll see, there are some major weaknesses.

Party Bias

First of all, Kuchikomi did really bad for minor parties (namely: YP = Your Party (みんなの党), SDP = Social Democratic Party (社民党), PNP = People’s New Party (国民新党)) and independents (= I). See the graph below as I plotted the predicted vote percentage vs the actual vote percentage of each candidate separated by party:

A perfect prediction will show a one-to-one lines. But for the aforementioned minor parties and independents, we see that Kuchikomi had very low predictions, yet resulted in considerably higher numbers (don’t worry about the mysterious acronyms, some of them are uber-minor parties). In the description of their algorithm, they mentioned that they gather information for both the candidate and the party. But it looks like they put more weight into on the party. For example, Your Party has former LDP members that were fairly well-known before the election. But because Your Party only formed as a political party three weeks before the election, Kuchikomi failed to gain sufficient information; thus, the low predictions. The leader (Watanabe Yoshimi) was predicted highly, but they had only two candidates in that district. Kamei Shizuka, the leader of the People’s New Party, was predicted to have 15% of the vote, but he actually got 60% — a semi-educated human being would have predicted that much better. In a similar vein, Kuchikomi just sucks for Independents. Either the media just doesn’t like to talk about them, or again, Kuchikomi doesn’t weigh the individual as much as the party.

Let’s look a little closer at the two main players: DPJ and LDP. The following graph is basically a mash up of the previous graph, where the red dots indicate the DPJ and the blue ones as LDP:

A one-to-one black line is passed through to indicate anything above it constitute underestimated predictions and anything below are overestimated predictions. The DPJ estimates are generally underestimated, and they are underestimated more strongly for lower prediction percentages. In general, the variance of the actual vote percentage is higher for lower prediction percentages. A paradox that happens here, is that even if Kuchikomi is underestimating the DPJ results in terms of percentages, it actually overestimated the number of seats that the DPJ won.

So what is going on? Well, it is hard to tell. One would think that underestimating the percentages would lead to underestimating the number of seats. This parallel can get broken if the prediction screws up (overestimates) big for a few seats, while underestimating moderately. I decided to plot the movements (difference between prediction percentage and actual percentage) on seats that were won by either the LDP or the DPJ and was predicted to win by either the LDP or the DPJ. Of course there are 4 cases: predict LDP -> observe LDP (upper right), predict LDP -> observe DPJ (upper left), predict DPJ -> observe DPJ (bottom left) and predict DPJ -> observe LDP (bottom right):

The red dots show the predicted percentage of both the DPJ and the LDP. The arrow protruding from the red dot “moves” to the actual vote percentage. So if the arrows going straight up, the prediction was underestimated for the LDP, and if the arrow is going to the right, the prediction was underestimated for the DPJ (and vice-versa). We see the red dots very close to black one-to-one line compared to the actual votes. This indicates that the predictions are a lot more flat than the actual results maybe due to lack of information. We see the arrows on the bottom right graph (predicted DPJ seat but actually went to the LDP) going vertically straight up. This of course means that the DPJ prediction was fine, but it fucked up on LDP results big time.

Now who were the candidates for the bottom right graph? Here is the list:

Aomori 2    “Eto Akinori”
Aomori 3    “Ooshima Tadamori”
Aomori 4    “Kimura Taro”
Chiba11     “Mori Eisuke”
Chiba12     “Hamada Yasukazu”
Ehime 1     “Shiozaki Yasuhisa”
Ehime 4     “Yamamoto Kouichi”
Fukui 1     “Inada Tomomi”
Fukui 2     “Yamamoto Taku”
Fukui 3     “Takagi Tsuyoshi”
Fukuoka 7   “Koga Makoto”
Gifu 2      “Tanahashi Yasufumi”
Gunma 4     “Fukuda Yasuo”
Hiroshima 1 “Kishida Fumio”
Hokkaido 7  “Itou Yoshitaka”
Ibaraki 4   “Kajiyama Hiroshi”
Ishikawa 2  “Mori Yoshirou”
Kagoshima 2 “Tokuda Takeshi”
Kagoshima 4 “Ozato Yasuhiro”
Kagoshima 5 “Moriyama Hiroshi”
Kanagawa 2  “Suga Yoshihide”
Kanagawa11  “Koizumi Shinjiro”
Kanagawa15  “Kouno Taro”
Kouchi 1    “Fukui Teru”
Kouchi 2    “Nakatani Gen”
Kouchi 3    “Yamamoto Yuuji”
Kumamoto 3  “Sakamoto Tetsushi”
Kyoto 5     “Tanigaki Sadakazu”
Mie 5       “Mitsuya Norio”
Miyazaki 2  “Etou Taku”
Nara 4      “Tanose Ryoutarou”
Okayama 1   “Aisawa Ichirou”
Okayama 5   “Katou Katsunobu”
Tokushima 3 “Gotouda Masazumi”
Tokyo17     “Hirasawa Katsuei”
Tottori 2   “Akazawa Ryousei”
Wakayama 3  “Nikai Toshihiro”
Yamaguchi 1 “Koumura Masahiko”

I’m not sure anything general can be derived from this list. I do however see former Prime Ministers (Mori, Fukuda, Koizumi (well, his daddy..)) and pols that appear on TV frequently (Kouno, Hirasawa, Gotouda) in this list. This might indicate a big-name bias that can’t be detected from more neutral mass-media articles (although I would think blogs would give some of this info). It could also mean that the LDP really pushed certain candidates at its last rush (many of the big-names also hold high positions).

How about the graph on the top right? The graph shows again the same movement: no bias for the DPJ but large underestimation for the LDP.

Fukuoka8   “Asou Tarou”
Gifu4      “Kaneko Kazuyoshi”
Shimane1   “Hosoda Hiroyuki”
Tochigi5   “Motegi Toshimitsu”
Tottori1   “Ishiba Shigeru”
Yamaguchi3 “Kawamura Takeo”
Yamaguchi4 “Abe Shinzou”

Former PMs (Abe, Asou), TV personas (Ishiba) and pols that made frequent media appearances (Kawamura, Hosoda).

Geo Effects

Another thing that I looked at, were prediction performances according to each prefecture and district. Each district has their own color that may influence media and blog-related chatter that goes onto the internet.

I first created an error measure as follows:

This basically gives me a proxy for how “bad” the prediction went. I put an exponential simply because I wanted to penalize mistakes at higher prediction percentages. The squared difference is to penalize large mistakes. What I did was calculate this measure for each candidate of each district. Then I can take aggregate statistics to explore how bad the predictions went given the location and the candidate.

In this case, I simply took the mean across districts and the candidates to arrive at a Prefecture-wide value. I can plot this (thanks Prof. Aoki (青木繁伸)) on a Japanese map to neatly see this information at a glance:

This basically shows poorly preforming predictions as a darker color. Is there some sort of pattern here? Again, it is hard to see. The error measure that I picked was fairly arbitrary, and I take the mean a couple times anyways — creating a major loss of detail. One thing though, Miyazaki had easily the largest error among the Prefectures. Can this be caused by media-crowding? Meaning, because the Governor caused a huge ruckus, maybe information let out about the election were superfluous.

A nice thing about these measures, is that we can play with them easily by making correlations with extraneous variables. Because I took Prefecture-wide statistics, I can regress it by, say Prefecture-wide population statistics:

We obviously see something interesting here. The Prefectures with high population has contain their error a lot more efficiently than the country lands. An error measure higher than 0.5 were observed at low population Prefectures (Akita, Gifu, Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Okinawa, Ooita, Shimane, Tochigi, Toyama, Yamagata) except for Saitama. Can this be called the urban bias? I am guessing this can happen because there are more media outlets, a larger educated populace and a stronger dependence to government policies for populated areas.

Of course this is all very general, but I decided to stop here since my lower back is hurting. But it is easy to see that further analyses can be done.

Last but not least: Gender

A quickie on prediction performance according to gender. Here is a graph that plots actual vote percentage minus predicted vote percentage, separated into the DPJ and the LDP.

The female politicians going above the zero line means that the predictions were underestimated. This is definitely a good thing since Kuchikomi has stated that they use regression results from past elections to get their predictions — meaning, this is slight evidence that people are more likely to vote woman than in the past. Then again, the LDP women predictions were spot on, so it might just be a DPJ thing. The women in general didn’t perform as well as the men .

ah, So?

Aside from being a statistical exercise, what was the reason for doing this? Once the election is over, who cares about these retrospective-I-predicted-better-than-you-chest-pumping?

The obvious benefit is that we learn a few things about the real world. Any prediction is at best, abstract extrapolations of the real world, and based on how things are setup, it’s a good learning process to articulate what is happening. In this case, Kuchikomi data was based on information from the internet. If there are such biases that I mentioned (flattening, urban, big-name, gender, party, etc.), even though it might be bad in terms of prediction performance, these imperfections tell us something about the elections.

The most important imperfection, IMO, was that the LDP was underestimated by a fair amount (not that the DPJ was underestimated). This is somewhat surprising considering that Kuchikomi was using much of the data from historical elections where it was always the case that the LDP won. For whatever reason, certain LDP politicians just did way better in real life. I called it big-name bias, but it could also mean that the Regime Change (政権交代) meme was played so much in the media that Kuchikomi bought into the hype. Conversely, it could mean that Kuchikomi got it right, but the media overplaying the Regime Change meme influenced voters more than anything online. These tidbits you would not learn from opinion polls because opinion polls grab data from real people instead of information from the internet.

Another reason we should care about predictions is for data checking. Recently, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight accused Strategic Vision (a polling company) of having some shoddy, suspicious polling (Nate has huge balls doing this alone). Predictions can be applied to different datasets, and it usually outputs a general trend. When one results in a departure from the trend, it gives some evidence to look into information rigging. This came helpful in the recent Iranian election.

Anyways, for me, the biggest coup was my new ability to graph Japan in R. I also have maps for the districts (but I can’t show both the whole country and the districts at the same time); thus, now I can create pretty pictures on 県民性.

Feel free to contact me if interested in the data, code or the map.

Today in the market, Wednesday, April 08, 2009: Insurance and technology shares led the market higher in a volatile day Wednesday, breaking a two-day slide. But a dim view of the economy from the Federal Reserve and jitters over looming earnings reports kept buyers in check.

The Dow Jones industrials rose 47.55, or 0.6 percent, to 7,837.11.

Stocks got an early lift from a deal combining two major homebuilders and a report saying the government was poised to extend aid to battered life insurance companies, then wavered throughout the day before ending slightly higher.

The Dow had fallen 3 percent over Monday and Tuesday, which analysts saw as a necessary breather following a powerful rally in March that gave the Dow its biggest four-week surge since 1933. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:

• BIL SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
• BIV Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond
• BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond
• GVI iShares Lehman Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Fund
• MUB iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund
• TIP iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• EVG Eaton Vance Short Duration Diversified Income Fund
• LQD iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• BGR BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust
• EAD Evergreen Income Advantage Fund, Inc.
• EFR Eaton Vance Senior Floating Rate Trust
• HRP Hrpt Properties Trust

ETF/CEF Discussion: Since I had a late meeting tonight I have to make this short and sweet and no charts tonight. Today’s picks ahe heavy with bond and income funds. Plus we have energy & resource CEF plus a real estate trust (not an ETF/CEF). So it’s your choice.

FYI, I have been a long term holder of TIP and it just paid a nice interest payment. The bond funds in my portfolio have been a good, steady anchor that have weathered out this financial storm. Also I booked a nice 15%, short term gain with my position in SRS which was from my “falling knife strategy” that I mentioned recently. That system is still under development.

Catch you tomorrow, but it could also be quite late AGAIN.

Today in the market, Thursday, April 02, 2009: Investors dove into stocks Thursday, extending a rally that gave the Dow Jones industrial average its best four weeks since 1933.

Stocks rose across the board in heavy trading following an accounting rule change that will help banks pare their losses and after commitments from world leaders to toughen regulatory oversight of financial institutions.

The Dow broke through 8,000 for the first time since Feb. 9 but ended slightly below that level ahead of the government’s employment report Friday that could easily upset the market if it comes in below forecasts — or send prices rocketing higher if it’s better than expected.

The Dow is now up 20.4 percent over the last month, its biggest percentage gain in a four-week period since the spring of 1933. Bits of good news about the economy in recent weeks, including better-than expected-numbers on housing and manufacturing, have given investors more reasons to buy. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• BNA – Blackrock N A Govt Incm

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• EAD – Evergreen Income Advantage Fund, Inc.
• HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust
• HYG – iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund

ETF/CEF Discussion: A great market day but a muted response from RSI. What gives, is it getting tired? RSI that is, the market appears to have gained strength. I won’t comment on today’s picks other than they are good, conservative funds. Also HRP is not a ETF/CEF fund, but rather a REIT. Interesting pick that has been picked in the past. So, give them a look as an alternative to the usual market hype.

Catch you tomorrow.

Robots for Daily Life
And they can run, WOW! A new version – amazing Robot Asimo

and

P3 Honda Advances
The Latest Updated Humanoid…

It Walks!
WATCH THE VIDEO UPDATE
Human footsteps are actually a controlled kind of falling. Robot technologists try to be as brave as human toddlers, on the path to building truly mindful Artificial Intelligence.
Credit: Thomas Lucas, Producer / Rob Goldberg, Writer

Robot-Human Convergence
They are increasingly made in our image; yet their core technologies are changing us into entities more like them. They will “take care” of us; one way or the other…
Credit: Thomas Lucas, Producer / Rob Goldberg, Writer

SCIENTIFIC AMERICA

Analyzing What Robots Tell Us About Human Nature:
A Q&A with Will Wright
You don’t truly appreciate the complexity of life until you try to reverse engineer and recreate it, he says.
By Larry Greenemeier

Japan to bring out more sophisticated humanoids…

THE STATISTICS FAVOR JAPAN

The land of Japan is universally renowned for its stupendous contributions in the domain of global science and technology. From the beginning of the post-World War II period Japan is leading the way in the fields of scientific research, particularly technology, machinery and biomedical research. According to reports, almost 700,000 researchers share a US$130 billion research and development budget, the third largest in the world.

What are the greatest technological contributions of Japan therefore? Well, they happen to be in the fields of electronics, automobiles, machinery, earthquake engineering, industrial robotics, optics, chemicals, semiconductors and metals. It is to be noted, that Japan leads the world in robotics production and use, possessing more than half (402,200 of 742,500) of the world’s industrial robots used for manufacturing.

2008 AWARD WINNER

The same vigor was found, in the recent days, when HRP-4C humanoid robot got introduced before the assembled audience. The HRP-4C humanoid robot was found to display her stormtrooper-like silver and black frame and bowed to a fashion-savvy audience at the start of the annual Japan Fashion Week in Tokyo. What was the outcome? Though the approach was applauded, it was also realized that there are still plenty of room for improvement.

Now let’s focus on the exciting features of this HRP-4C humanoid robot. The very robot consists of battery-powered motors in her body and face that enables her to simulate the expressions, pace and poses of a supermodel to a certain extent. Speaking on this Shuji Kajita, director of humanoid robot engineering at the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) stated, “Our robot can’t move elegantly like the real models that are here today.” “It’ll take another 20 to 30 years of research to make that happen.”

What was the total expense? As stated by the AIST designers, only the eyes, face and hair of the robot did cost about $2 million to develop. What are the immediate plans? Japan has the firm conviction to go on with the experiments that will lead to more improvements. Remember that Japan is home to just about half of the world’s 800,000 industrial robots.

Today in the market, Monday, March 23, 2009: Wall Street got the news it wanted on the economy’s biggest problems — banks and housing — and celebrated by hurtling the Dow Jones industrials up nearly 500 points. Investors added rocket fuel Monday to a two-week-old advance, cheering the government’s plan to help banks remove bad assets from their books and also welcoming a report showing a surprising increase in home sales. Major stock indicators surged more than 6 percent, including the Dow, which had its biggest percentage gain since October.

Although analysts were still hesitant to say Wall Street is squarely on its way to recovery after the collapse that began last fall, they said the banking and housing news bolstered the belief that the economy is starting to heal.

the Dow rose 497.48, or 6.8 percent, to 7,775.86, its highest finish since Feb. 13. It was the biggest point gain for the blue chips since Nov. 13 when they rose 552 points and the biggest percentage gain since Oct. 28. when they rose 10.9 percent.

Broader stock indicators also surged. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 54.38, or 7.1 percent, to 822.92, crossing the psychological milepost of 800. The Nasdaq composite index rose 98.50, or 6.8 percent, to 1,555.77. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:

• BIL – SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
• GVI – iShares Lehman Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Fund

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• EVG – Eaton Vance Short Duration Diversified Income Fund

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• CAF – Morgan Stanley A Share Fund
• CHN – China Fund, Inc.
• EVV – Eaton Vance Limited Duration Income Fund
• FCT – First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income Fund II
• HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust
• NCV – Nicholas Applegate Conv&Income Fund
• VTA – Van Kampen Dynamic Credit Opportunities Fund

ETF/CEF Discussion: A huge up day for the market and RSI cheered along the upward progress. Is this a “bear trap” or is the rally for real? I’m beginning to wonder. Time will tell. As for today, RSI picked a rather conservative set of funds, although many soared today. The two Chinese funds put in good gains (FYI – I own CAF) and HRP jumped over 24% today, so don’t chase the big up moves but wait for pullbacks. HRP has been picked several times in the past few weeks; I hope someone out there listened to RSI on this fund pick. All in all this list is not what you hear touted from the financial media. This is a contrary voice in the darkness.

Catch you tomorrow.

Today in the market, Wednesday, March 18, 2009: With the country sinking deeper into recession, the Federal Reserve launched a bold $1.2 trillion effort Wednesday to lower rates on mortgages and other consumer debt, spur spending and revive the economy. To do so, the Fed will spend up to $300 billion to buy long-term government bonds and an additional $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Wall Street was buoyed. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been down earlier in the day, rose 90.88, or 1.2 percent, to 7,486.58. Broader indicators also gained.. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:

• AGG iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund
• BIV Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond
• BND Vanguard Total Bond Market
• BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond
• CSJ iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Credit Bond Fund
• GBF iShares Lehman Government/Credit Bond Fund
• IEI iShares Lehman 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
• MBB iShares Lehman MBS Fixed-Rate Bond Fund
• MIN MFS Intermediate Incm
• SHY 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
• TIP iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• CSP American Strat Inc Pt III
• FXF Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust
• FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
• IEF 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
• TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
• GBF iShares Lehman Government/Credit Bond Fund

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• ASA ASA Ltd.
• CAF Morgan Stanley A Share Fund
• EAD Evergreen Income Advantage Fund, Inc.
• ESD Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund Inc.
• EVV Eaton Vance Limited Duration Income Fund
• GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners
• GTU Central Gold-Trust
• HRP Hrpt Properties Trust
• HYG iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund
• NCV Nicholas Applegate Conv&Income Fund
• SLX Market Vectors Steel
• VTA Van Kampen Dynamic Credit Opportunities Fund
• XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining Index

ETF/CEF Discussion: A nice up day, coupled with a string of many good days has caused RSI to trip all over itself with a plethora of picks. Mostly form the bond arena, but also favoring the metals. This is a curious blend of sectors for RSI to pick as the winners going forward. Again, if you believe this uptrend is in place and the world economy is back on the mend, then by all means do consider these candidates.

Due to circumstances beyond my control I am not able to present the usual performance charts tonight. But be my guest and look at their charts.

Catch you tomorrow.

syllabus II, bag : recruitment

FUNGSI PENGADAAN

PERENCANAAN PERSONIL & PEREKRUTAN

lilis sulastri lagut

A. Perencanaan Kebutuhan Tenaga Kerja

Perencanaan kebutuhan tenaga kerja dimaksudkan agar jumlah kebutuhan tenaga kerja masa kini dan masa depan sesuai dengan beban pekerjaan, kekosongan-kekosongan dapat dihindarkan dan semua pekerjaan dapat dilaksanakan. Perencanaan kebutuhan tenaga kerja ini harus didasarkan pada informasi dari faktor internal & faktor eksternal perusahaan.

Faktor Internal dan Eksternal Perusahaan:

• Jumlah produksi
• Ramalan-ramalan usaha
• Perluasan perusahaan
• Perkembangan teknologi
• Tingkat permintaan dan penawaran tenaga kerja
• Perencanaan karier tenaga kerja/pegawai

a. Jumlah Produksi

Bahwa jumlah produksi yang akan dihasilkan menentukan banyaknya karyawan yang dibutuhkan oleh setiap perusahaan. Semakin banyak produksi yang akan dihasilkan maka akan semakin banyak pula tenaga kerja yang dibutuhkan/direkrut.

b. Ramalan-ramalan Usaha

Hal ini meliputi perkiraan mengenai situasi perekonomian, siklus usaha yang menyangkut ketidakpastian di masa yang akan datang, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang.

c. Perluasan Perusahaan

Perencanaan tenaga kerja juga dipengaruhi oleh rencana perluasan perusahaan dimasa yang akan datang. Jika perusahaan akan diperbesar maka perekrutan/penarikan tenaga kerja akan semakin banyak pula.

d. Perkembangan Teknologi

Perkembangan teknologi juga akan mempengaruhi jumlah tenaga kerja yang

dibutuhkan oleh suatu perusahaan. Perusahaan yang menggunakan alat-alat canggih, maka jumlah tenaga kerja yang dibutuhkan sedikit. Hal inilah yang harus diperhitungkan agar dikemudian hari tidak terjadi PHK.

e. Pasaran Tenaga Kerja

Pasaran tenaga kerja haruslah diperhatikan sebab jika penawaran lebih besar dari permintaan maka tingkat upah akan cenderung rendah. Dalam hal ini perusahaan harus menghitung manakah yang paling menguntungkan, apakah dengan labor intensive atau capital intensive. Sehingga hal tersebut akan mempengaruhi kebijaksanaan kebutuhan tenaga kerja.

f. Perencanaan Karier Tenaga Kerja

Kemungkinan promosi di kemudian hari akan ikut mempengaruhi kebutuhan tenaga kerja. Jika promosi akan dilakukan di kemudian hari, maka calon karyawan/tenaga kerja yang dibutuhkan harus dengan spesifikasi yang lebih banyak lagi.

B. Prediksi Kebutuhan Tenaga Kerja

Berapa banyak jumlah tenaga kerja & tenaga kerja dengan skill yang bagaimana

yang akan dibutuhkan di masa depan itu banyak digantungkan kepada informasi

mengenai keadaan di masa lampau, keadaan saat ini dan asumsi-asumsi mengenai keadaan di masa depan. Asumsi yang biasa digunakan adalah dengan melihat trend di masa lampau, sedangkan hubungan antara variabel dianggap tetap. Tetapi pada kondisi bisnis yang dinamis dan selalu berubah maka asumsi-asumsi tersebut mungkin akan tidak berlaku, sehingga perubahan-perubahan pada perencanaan mungkin dibutuhkan.

Terdapat tiga metode dalam memprediksi kebutuhan akan tenaga kerja, yaitu :

1. Metode Penilaian

Pada dasarnya metode penilaian memanfaatkan orang-orang yang cukup

berpengalaman dalam memprediksi kebutuhan perusahaan akan tenaga kerja di masa mendatang. Metode penilaian mempertimbangkan data kuantitatif, tetapi disamping itu juga dipertimbangkan faktor intuisi dan keahlian.

Metode penilaian yang paling sederhana adalah metode Bottom-Up, yaitu masing-masing unit, cabang, departemen, memperkirakan sendiri kebutuhannya akan tenaga kerja. Idealnya manajer menerima informasi & pengarahan, yang kemudian dikombinasikan dengan pandangan mereka sendiri untuk dapat membuat perkiraan yang dibutuhkan tersebut. Jumlah dari perkiraan masing-masing departemen akan merupakan jumlah keseluruhan kebutuhan akan tenaga kerja yang dibutuhkan perusahaan.

Dalam metode penilaian terdapat beberapa sub bagian :

• metode Top-down

dimana para eksekutif mendiskusikan bagaimana kondisi perekonomian, trend bisnis, perencanaan yang telah dibuat serta berbagai faktor lain yang mungkin mempengaruhi kebutuhan perusahaan akan tenaga kerja. Mereka juga membuat perkiraan-perkiraan mengenai kemungkinan-kemungkinan terburuk yang mungkin terjadi.

• Metode teknik Delphi

dimana para eksekutif pada masing-masing cabang tidak bertemu, tetapi mereka membuat konsensus dengan menjawab kuesioner-kuesioner yang diberikan oleh perusahaan mengenai perencanaan yang akan dibuat. Kuesioner-kuesioner ini dikirim berulang-ulang dengan mencantumkan hasil dari kuesioner sebelumnya, sehingga para eksekutif cabang tersebut dapat membandingkan dan membuat prediksi yang lebih tepat. Teknik ini akan meningkatkan kualitas keputusan yang diambil, karena akan dapat menghilangkan perselisihan pribadi maupun kemungkinan adanya dominasi suara dalam proses pengambilan keputusan. Tetapi teknik ini juga memakan waktu yang lama, sehingga untuk keputusan-keputusan yang membutuhkan pengambilan keputusan yang cepat, maka teknik ini akan sangat sulit untuk digunakan.

2. Metode Matematika Sederhana

Metode ini memanfaatkan informasi-informasi yang tersedia yang menyangkut akan kebutuhan tenaga kerja, lalu kemudian dikombinasikan dengan rasio produktivitas untuk tenaga kerja langsung maupun rasio staf untuk tenaga kerja tidak langsung. Rasio produktivitas tidak langsung adalah perbandingan antara hasil produksi rata-rata dengan dengan tenaga kerja langsung setiap tahun. Sedangkan rasio staf untuk tenaga kerja tidak langsung ialah untuk menghitung jumlah tenaga kerja tidak langsung dalam proses produksi. Rasio-rasio ini dihasilkan dari data-data yang dikumpulkan secara periodik dalam jangka waktu yang lama. Perkiraan dengan memanfaatkan rasio produktivitas mendasarkan pada asumsi bahwa jumlah dari tenaga kerja akan selalu meningkat sebanding dengan peningkatan jumlah pekerjaan yang harus dilakukan. Hal ini tidak selalu benar, karena ada kalanya perusahaan dapat memberlakukan aturan lembur.

Rasio produktivitas juga memanfaatkan learning curves, dimana diasumsikan bahwa produktivitas akan meningkat seiring dengan bertambahnya pengalaman. Karyawan yang telah bekerja cukup lama akan bisa mengetahui hal-hal apa yang dapat membantu meningkatkan efisiensi dan efektivitas dalam bekerja sehingga produktivitas akan meningkat. Untuk memanfaatkan learning curve dipakai progress index, yang menunjukkan persentase belajar yang terjadi dalam setiap kali produksi menjadi dua kali lipat.

3. Metode Matematika Kompleks

Jenis metode ini dapat dipakai pada perusahaan besar yang telah memiliki

pengalaman yang cukup lama dalam perencanaan Sumber Daya Manusia.

Salah satunya adalah Metode Regresi Berganda, yang memanfaatkan berbagai faktor yang berhubungan dengan kebutuhan akan tenaga kerja untuk memprediksi kebutuhan tenaga kerja di masa mendatang.

C. Perekrutan Tenaga Kerja

Perekrutan (recruitment) adalah masalah penting dalam pengadaan tenaga kerja. Jika perekrutan berhasil, maka artinya banyak pelamar yang memasukkan lamarannya, dan tentu saja peluang untuk mendapatkan tenaga kerja yang baik semakin terbuka lebar, karena kita dapat memilih yang paling terbaik diantara karyawan tersebut. Perekrutan tenaga kerja/pelamar dipengaruhi oleh:

1. Balas jasa yang diberikan. Jika balas jasa yang diberikan besar, maka pelamarnya akan semakin banyak. Sebaliknya bila balas jasa yang diberikan kecil, maka pelamar menjadi sedikit.
2. Status tenaga kerja. Jika statusnya adalah untuk menjadi tenaga kerja tetap maka pelamarnya akan relatif banyak. Tetapi bila statusnya adalah sebagai tenaga kerja honorer, maka pelamarnya sedikit.
3. Kesempatan promosi. Jika kesempatan promosi terbuka lebar maka jumlah pelamar akan banyak, begitu pula sebaliknya.
4. Job specification. Jika spesifikasi pekerjaannya sedikit, maka orang yang mencoba untuk melamar pekerjaan tersebut akan semakin banyak, begitu pula sebaliknya.
5. Metode penarikan. Bila perekrutan/penarikan terbuka luas melalui media massa atau lain sebagainya, maka pelamar yang mencoba semakin banyak, sebaliknya. Soliditas perusahaan. Jika soliditas perusahaan cukup tinggi maka pelamarnya banyak, dan sebaliknya.
6. Peraturan perburuhan. Jika peraturan perburuhan longgar maka pelamar banyak, dan sebaliknya. Misalnya usia tenaga kerja, dsb.
7. Penawaran tenaga kerja. Jika penawaran tenaga kerja banyak maka pelamar yang mencoba akan semakin banyak, begitu pula sebaliknya.

Apakah perekrutan itu?

Perekrutan adalah usaha mencari & mempengaruhi tenaga kerja, agar mau

melamar lowongan pekerjaan yang ada dalam suatu perusahaan.

Edwin B. Flippo mendefinisikan sebagai: Recruitment is the process of searching for prospective employees and stimulating them to apply for job in the organizational. Maksudnya adalah bahwa perekrutan itu adalah suatu proses pencarian & pemikatan para calon tenaga kerja/pegawai yang mampu bekerja di dalam organisasi.

Jadi intinya yaitu perekrutan ialah usaha mencari dan menarik tenaga kerja agar melamar lowongan pekerjaan yang ada pada suatu perusahaan.

Siapakah yang disebut tenaga kerja itu?

Menurut Pasal 1 Undang-undang No. 14 tahun 1969, tenaga kerja adalah: tiap

orang yang mampu melakukan pekerjaan baik didalam maupun diluar hubungan kerja, guna menghasilkan barang ataupun jasa untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat. Tenaga kerja ini harus memenuhi persyaratan peraturan pemerintah, seperti batas usia tertentu. Jadi pengertian tenaga kerja ini lebih luas bila dibandingkan dengan pengertian karyawan, karena tenaga kerja merupakan orang yang bekerja baik didalam maupun diluar hubungan kerja. Ciri khas hubungan kerja adalah tenaga kerja itu bekerja dibawah perintah orang lain dengan menerima balas jasa.

Undang-undang No. 14 tahun 1969 dan peraturan pelaksanaannya tidak boleh

diadakan diskriminasi. Dalam Pasal 4 dikemukakan bahwa tiap tenaga kerja berhak mendapat perlindungan atas keselamatan, kesehatan, kesulitan, pemeliharaan moral kerja, serta perlakuan yang sesuai dengan martabat manusia dan moral agama.

Kerja adalah merupakan sejumlah aktivitas fisik dan mental yang dilakukan

seseorang untuk mengerjakan suatu pekerjaan.

Buruh/kuli adalah seseorang pekerja harian atau honorer yang bekerja dibawah

perintah orang lain dan menerima balas jasa yang besarnya itu telah ditentukan.

Karyawan/pegawai

Karyawan/pegawai adalah seseorang pekerja tetap yang bekerja dibawah perintah orang lain dan mendapat kompensasi serta jaminan.

Proses perekrutan karyawan yang baik adalah sebagai berikut:

1. Penentuan dasar perekrutan
2. Penentuan sumber-sumber perekrutan
3. Metode-metode perekrutan
4. Kendala-kendala perekrutan

1. Penentuan Dasar Perekrutan

Dasar perekrutan calon karyawan harus terlebih dahulu ditetapkan agar para pelamar yang memasukkan lamarannya sesuai dengan pekerjaan atau jabatan yang akan dijabatnya. Dasar perekrutan harus berpedoman pada spesifikasi pekerjaan yang telah ditentukan untuk menjabat jabatan tersebut. Job specification harus diuraikan secara terinci & jelas, agar para pelamar dapat mengetahui kualifikasi-kualifikasi yang dituntut oleh lowongan kerja tersebut. Misalnya batas usia, pendidikan, jenis kelamin, kesehatan, dll. Jika spesifikasi pekerjaan dijadikan dasar & pedoman perekrutan, maka karyawan yang diterima akan sesuai dengan uraian pekerjaan dari jabatan atau pekerjaan tersebut.

2. Penentuan Sumber-sumber Perekrutan

Setelah diketahui spesifikasi pekerjaan karyawan yang dibutuhkan maka kita harus menentukan sumber-sumber perekrutan calon karyawan tersebut. Sumber perekrutan calon karyawan itu adalah sumber internal dan eksternal perusahaan.:

Sumber Internal

Sumber internal adalah karyawan yang akan mengisi lowongan kerja diambil dari

dalam perusahaan tersebut, yakni dengan cara memutasikan atau pemindahan

karyawan yang memenuhi spesifikasi pekerjaan jabatan itu. Pemindahan karyawan itu baik yang bersifat vertikal (promosi ataupun demosi) maupun bersifat horizontal. Jika masih ada karyawan yang memenuhi spesifikasi pekerjaan, sebaiknya pengisian jabatan tersebut diambil dari dalam perusahaan, khususnya untuk jabatan manajerial. Hal ini sangat penting untuk memberikan kesempatan promosi bagi karyawan yang ada.

Apa saja kebaikan dan kelemahan sumber internal itu?

Kebaikan-kebaikan sumber internal

• Meningkatkan moral kerja & kedisiplinan karyawan, karena ada kesempatan promosi.
• Perilaku dan loyalitas karyawan semakin besar terhadap perusahaan.
• Biaya perekrutan relatif kecil, karena tidak perlu memasang iklan.
• Waktu perekrutan relatif singkat.
• Orientasi dan induksi tidak diperlukan lagi.
• Kestabilan karyawan semakin baik.

Kelemahan-kelemahan sumber internal

• Kewibawaan karyawan yang dipromosikan itu kurang.
• Kurang membuka kesempatan sistem kerja baru dalam perusahaan.

Bila tidak ada karyawan yang dapat memenuhi kualifikasi-kualifikasi jabatan yang lowong tersebut, maka kita merekrutnya dari sumber eksternal.

Sumber Eksternal

Sumber Eksternal adalah karyawan yang akan mengisi jabatan yang lowong

dilakukan perekrutan dari sumber-sumber tenaga kerja diluar perusahaan, yaitu:

1. Kantor penempatan tenaga kerja.
2. Lembaga-lembaga pendidikan.
3. Referensi karyawan atau rekanan.
4. Serikat-serikat buruh.
5. Pencangkokan dari perusahaan lain.
6. Nepotisme dan leasing.
7. Pasar tenaga kerja dengan memasang iklan pada media massa.
8. Sumber-sumber lainnya.

Apa saja kebaikan dan kelemahan sumber eksternal itu?

Kebaikan-kebaikan sumber eksternal

• Kewibawaan pejabat relatif baik.
• Kemungkinan membawa sistem kerja baru yang lebih baik.

Kelemahan-kelemahan sumber eksternal

• Prestasi karyawan lama cenderung turun, karena tidak ada kesempatan untuk promosi.
• Biaya perekrutan besar, karena iklan dan seleksi.
• Waktu perekrutan relatif lama.
• Orientasi dan induksi harus dilakukan.
• Turnover cenderung akan meningkat.
• Perilaku dan loyalitasnya belum diketahui.

3. Metode-metode Perekrutan

Metode perekrutan akan berpengaruh besar terhadap banyaknya lamaran yang masuk ke dalam perusahaan. Metode perekrutan calon karyawan baru dibagi atas metode tertutup dan metode terbuka.

Metode Tertutup

Metode tertutup yaitu dimana perekrutan itu hanya diinformasikan kepada para

karyawan atau orang-orang tertentu saja. Akibatnya lamaran yang masuk menjadi relatif sedikit, sehingga kesempatan untuk mendapatkan karyawan yang baik akan semakin sulit.

Metode Terbuka

Metode terbuka adalah dimana perekrutan itu diinformasikan secara luas dengan

memasang iklan pada media massa baik cetak maupun elektronik, agar tersebar luas ke masyarakat. Dengan metode terbuka ini diharapkan banyak lamaran yang akan masuk, sehingga kesempatan untuk mendapatkan karyawan yang qualified menjadi lebih besar.

4. Kendala-kendala Perekrutan

Agar proses perekrutan berhasil maka perusahaan perlu menyadari berbagai kendala yang bersumber dari “organisasi, pelaksana perekrutan dan lingkungan eksternal”. Kendala-kendala yang dihadapi setiap perusahaan tidak sama, tetapi pada umumnya kendala-kendala itu adalah:

a. Kebijaksanaan-kebijaksanaan organisasi

Berbagai kebijaksanaan organisasi merupakan cermin utama atas berhasil atau

tidaknya perekrutan calon pegawai. Kebijaksanaan organisasi yang akan

mempengaruhi perekrutan itu adalah:

• Kebijaksanaan Kompensasi dan Kesejahteraan. Jika perusahaan dapat memberikan kompensasi dan kesejahteraan yang cukup besar serta adil maka pelamar yang serius akan semakin banyak, tetapi sebaliknya jika gaji dan kesejahteraan rendah maka pelamar menjadi sedikit.
• Kebijaksanaan Promosi. Apabila kesempatan untuk promosi diberikan cukup luas maka pelamar yang serius semakin banyak, tetapi sebaliknya jika kesempatan untuk promosi sangat terbatas maka pelamar akan menjadi sedikit. Promosi merupakan idaman setiap karyawan, karena dengan promosi berarti status dan pendapatan akan bertambah besar.
• Kebijaksanaan Status Karyawan. Jika status karyawan menjadi karyawan tetap/full-time maka pelamar semakin banyak, tetapi jika status karyawannya honorer/harian/part-time maka pelamar akan semakin sedikit.
• Kebijaksanaan Sumber Tenaga Kerja. Jika tenaga kerja yang akan diterima hanya bersumber dari tenaga kerja lokal, maka pelamar yang serius akan sedikit, tetapi sebaliknya bila tenaga kerja yang akan diterima bersumber dari seluruh Nusantara, maka pelamar akan semakin banyak.

b. Persyaratan-persyaratan jabatan

Semakin banyak persyaratan yang harus dimiliki pelamar maka pelamar akan

menjadi sedikit, sebaliknya jika jumlah persyaratannya sedikit maka pelamarnya

akan semakin banyak.

c. Metode pelaksanaan perekrutan

Semakin terbuka perekrutan maka pelamarnya akan semakin banyak, sebaliknya apabila perekrutannya semakin tertutup maka pelamarnya semakin sedikit.

d. Kondisi pasar tenaga kerja

Semakin besar penawaran tenaga kerja maka akan semakin banyak pula pelamar yang serius. Tetapi sebaliknya jika penawaran tenaga kerja sedikit maka

pelamarnya juga menjadi sedikit.

e. Soliditas perusahaan

Soliditas perusahaan dapat diartikan sebagai besarnya kepercayaan masyarakat

terhadap perusahaan, misal; besarnya perusahaan tersebut. Jika soliditas perusahaan besar maka pelamar akan semakin banyak. Sebaliknya jika soliditas

perusahaan rendah maka pelamarnya akan semakin sedikit.

f. Kondisi-kondisi lingkungan eksternal

Jika kondisi perekonomian tumbuh dengan cepat dan saingannya juga banyak

maka pelamar akan sedikit, tetapi jika tingkat pertumbuhan perekonomian

kecil/depresi, maka pelamarnya akan semakin banyak.

Today in the market, Thursday, March 12, 2009: Investors have been clamoring for months for a bit of good news. On Thursday, they got a load of it.

The Dow Jones industrials shot up 240 points to a two-week high of 7,170, bringing its gains over the past three days to 622 points, or 9.5 percent. It was the index’s biggest three-day jump since last November.

Surprisingly positive signals this week from companies across all industries, particularly banks, have made traders think twice about continuing to drive stocks lower. It’s too soon to tell whether this week’s upturn is the beginning of a bull market or simply a temporary rally within a bear market, but either way there has been a pronounced change in Wall Street’s tone. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• BBH – Biotech Holders
• NPI – Nuveen Prem Incm Muni Fund

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• CHN – China Fund, Inc.
• CHY – CALAMOS Convertible and High Income Fund
• CSQ – Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund
• DBA – PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund
• EFR – Eaton Vance Senior Floating Rate Trust
• EPD – Enterprise Products Partn
• ETW – Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Buy-Write Opportunities Fund
• HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust
• IYZ – Telecom iShares
• KYE – Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund
• VOT – Vanguard Mid Cap Growth ETF

ETF/CEF Discussion: Sorry for the late post this evening, I had a schedule problem. I have to make the commentary brief and no charts. You can see the picks and the potpourri of themes working here. So give them your consideration and with the caveat of that we may be in a countertrend rally of unknown duration and magnitude.

Catch you tomorrow to close out the week.

Today in the market, Tuesday, February 24, 2009: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has given Wall Street a double dose of reassurance. Bernanke told Congress Monday that the recession might end this year, and that regulators aren’t planning to nationalize banks. The news alleviated some of investors’ deepening worries about the economy and the banking system, and the Dow Jones industrial average, coming off its lowest levels since 1997, jumped about 250 points, or 3.5 percent. Other major stock indexes rose about 4 percent. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• BBH – Biotech Holders
• FXC – Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust
• FXE – Currency Shares Euro Trust

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• DBA – PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund
• EWH – HongKong iShares
• EWM – Malaysia iShares
• EWT – Taiwan iShares
• FXI – iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25
• GXC – SPDR S&P China ETF
• HHH – Internet Holders
• HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust
• IHI – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices
• JQC – Nuveen Multi-Strategy Income and Growth Fund 2
• KCE – SPDR KBW Capital Markets Index ETF
• MSF – Mgn Stnly Dean Wtr Emg Mk
• O – Realty Income Corp.
• OIH – Oil Services Holders
• PGJ – PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio

ETF/CEF Discussion: Before I talk about RSI’s picks, I am is disbelief that the market would have such a big lift from anything that Bernanke has to say, especially a “reassurance”. I don’t think he has a clue about the depth of the current recession. And his academic specialty was the great depression. Go figure.

With that said, RSI has made many picks today that reflect its interest in biotech & medical, foreign currencies, Asian equities, real estate, agriculture, and oil services. Virtually all its picks I would categorize as “falling knife” picks. Consider all these picks highly speculative and use caution. If the market continues to fall, these funds will suffer too.

FYI – O – Realty Income Corp. and HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust are both REITs and are not ETF/CEF. They pay a yield of 9.20% and 13.40% respectively.

Catch you tomorrow

Today in the market, Friday, February 20, 2009: Stocks tumbled on Friday, with the Dow industrials closing at a 6-1/2-year low, on fears the government may be forced to nationalize some big banks even as the White House said it supports a privately held banking system.

Fears that some major banks could be taken over by the government had driven the S&P 500 close to a 12-year low before the White House issued its most direct statement yet on banks.

But even though the comments erased a sharp sell-off in bank stocks, the White House statement failed to address persistent uncertainty about how the government will rescue ailing banks. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• FXC – Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust
• FXF – Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• CAF – Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund
• GDX – Market Vectors Gold Miners
• HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust

ETF/CEF Discussion: Finally this bad, shortened week is over…thank heavens. RSI picks for today are a flight to foreign currencies, China, Gold and a REIT. The REIT is not an ETF/CEF fund, but an individual, high quality realty trust. It pays a 13.8% yield but its value is tied to the economy & the real estate market. So beware. These picks should be viewed as good alternative investments to the usual stuff. Give them a look.

Have a great weekend.

Oleh : Zaki HR

Human Resource Planning (HRP atau HR Planning) atau yang biasa disebut dalam bahasa Indonesia dengan sebutan Perencanaan SDM, adalah suatu perencanaan strategis untuk mendapatkan dan memelihara kualifikasi sumber daya manusia yang diperlukan bagi organisasi perusahaan dalam mencapai tujuan perusahaan. Dengan kata lain HRP adalah merencanakan kebutuhan dan pemanfaatan SDM bagi perusahaan.

HRP menghubungkan manajemen SDM dengan visi, misi, target dan tujuan organisasi, sesuai dengan rencana strategis dan resource telah dibudgetkan. Kunci sukses dari HRP adalah mendapatkan jumlah karyawan yang tepat, dengan skill, pengalaman dan kompetensi yang tepat, pada posisi yang tepat, waktu yang tepat dan harga yang tepat.

HRP yang komprehensif memainkan peranan yang vital dalam pencapaian tujuan strategis organisasi secara keseluruhan, dimana fungsi HR benar-benar memahami dan mendukung kearah mana perusahaan akan dibawa. Selain itu, HRP yang komprehensif juga akan mendukung rencana-rencana strategis lain yang spesifik, yang ditangani oleh unit lain, misalnya : marketing, finansial, operasional dan teknologi.

On February 10, 2009, the Chapter 7 Trustee appointed for HRP Myrtle Beach Holdings, LLC filed a motion for authority to sell the assets comprising the Hard Rock Park to FPI MB Entertainment LLC on the terms of an asset purchase agreement dated February 9, 2009.  HRP Myrtle Beach Holdings filed a voluntary chapter 11 petition on September 24, 2008 but determined that it was unable to successfully reorganize and the case was recently converted to chapter 7 (details of the circumstances relating to the conversion can be found here).  Hard Rock Park is a destination theme park located in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina with a rock-n-roll theme.

Prior to the conversion of the case, the company had retained Raymond James & Associates to market the assets for sale, but was unable to generate any bids greater than $20 million for the assets.  Following the conversion, Raymond James has continued to market the assets for sale and, in total, has contacted over 200 parties.  After the conversion, 25 new parties were contacted and the proposed purchaser has offered $25 million for Hard Rock Park.

However, the asset purchase agreement requires that the sale close on or prior to February 20, 2009 in order for the purchaser to be able to have the park reopened by Memorial Day weekend (the motion estimates that it will take at least 90 days for the park to be reopened because of the need to undertake certain capital expenditures to comply with safety regulations).  If the sale does not close by February 20, 2009, the agreement provides that the purchase price shall be decreased by $1 million and that the purchase price shall be decreased by an additional $50,000 for each additional day the sale does not close thereafter.  Therefore, the Trustee has also requested that the motion be heard on an expedited basis, with a sale hearing occurring on February 17th at 10:00 a.m.

Download a copy of the motion, which attaches a copy of the proposed asset purchase agreement, using netDockets.  Sign up now for a free trial account and $100 of free research.

On Monday, 12 January 2009, we had the 100,000th visit to the Mirror – starting from January 2007.

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The Mirror, Vol. 13, No. 595

“On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister and Minster of Defense Tea Banh said that there are 70 military officers among a group of generals of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces who were promoted to the rank of one-star general in 2008, in a ceremony on 31 December 2008. Tea Banh, mentioning the six-month confrontation at the border region during disputes with Siam [Thailand], said that generals from all provinces were promoted according their accomplishments and successes in defending the nation.

“Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Tea Banh – suspected by some people not to be of Khmer descent – said, ‘We have laws for the appointment of officers in the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, from low to high levels, and appointments are based on the special positions in the military and in any specific region where troops are deployed.’

“It should be noted that in March 2006, Minister of Defense Tea Banh said that there were 613 generals ranking from one star to four stars in the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces. However, on Wednesday, Tea Banh did not mention how many generals from one star to four stars exist at present. This creates a strong interest among observers of the field of national defense in Cambodia, while this field loses its importance to a considerable extent.

“According to a figure in 2006, it was estimated that each one-star general could only have 179 soldiers under his command among the 110,000 soldiers in Cambodia at that time. Figures from 2004, released on the website of a World Security Organization, allow to compare figures with the US armed forces, where there were 876 generals, and for each general there were 1,347 soldiers, both male and female. A journalist in Thailand, an expert in security affairs, said in an email on Wednesday that the newly promoted 70 generals of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces seem to be too many, but the awarding of such ranks is frequently based on political reasons.

“Nevertheless, Deputy Prime Minister and Minster of Defense Tea Banh said that the promotions giving higher ranks is completely based on qualifications, but not on political considerations. Also the Preah Vihear RCAF commander Sam Bopharath said that he is one of the military officers promoted, and he was given the rank of a brigadier, having been a captain before. This Preah Vihear military commander said, ‘I was promoted to be a one star-general, after I have worked for 30 years in the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces.

“He went on to say that this promotion is part of the administrative reform of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, requiring all regional commanders to hold the rank of one-star general. As for Neak Vong, the chief of the General Staff of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces of the Fourth Region, assigned to be positioned at the Ta Moan temple region along the Cambodia-Siam [Thai] border, he said that the ranking is based on active work and long term experiences in military affairs. He added, ‘I have worked for the Ministry of Defense nearly ten years, but I am not yet appointed to be a general; I am still a major.’

“It should be noted that among the expenses in the 2009 national budget of up to US$1,8 billion, the Hun Sen government increased the expenses for the national defense, in order to improve this field to be stronger. In the meantime, observers of the national defense in Cambodia said that in order to strengthen the national defense, corruption in the Ministry of National Defense and in the Military General Headquarters must be eliminated urgently, otherwise the effort to strengthen the military will not receive good results, because corruption in the Ministry of National Defense and in the Military General Headquarters has previously even taken away hats, shoes, and clothes of military officers and of soldiers countrywide. Therefore, the elimination of corruption in the field of national defense is crucial, so that it can be compared to neighboring countries.

“Some experienced military officers said that even though at present, Cambodia has many generals, their abilities are still limited, because their promotions do not depend on real skills and work experiences, and on the struggle to serve the nation. In contrast, they receive their ranks for political reasons, which leads to a serious inflation of ranks, making their positions less valuable, and the stars on their shoulders are just worn for decoration.” Moneaksekar Khmer, Vol.16, #3667, 16.1.2009

Newspapers Appearing on the Newsstand:
Friday, 16 January 2009

Cheat Khmer, Vol.1, #5, 16-18.1.2009

• International Human Rights Organization [Human Rights Watch 2009 report] Criticizes Cambodia for Violating Human Rights

Deum Ampil, Vol.3, #107, 16-20.1.2009

• Israel Is Seeking Cooperation in Economy and Investment in Cambodia [according to a diplomatic visit by the first secretary of the Israeli Embassy in Bangkok, Mr. Tzahi Selzer, in Cambodia]
• The 7NG Company Will Wait for Three More Days, Offering US$20,000 [for residents] in Exchange for Leaving [the Dey Krahom region]
• Cambodia Plans to Create [Cambodian National] Television Representative Office in Beijing [according the Minister of Information, Mr. Khieu Kanharith]
• A Danish Woman Is Convicted to Serve 15 Years in Prison and Fined Riel 30 Million [approx. US$7,500 for drug trafficking. Actually, she bought several thousand of over-the-counter painkillers with codeine that can be easily and legally bought at street-side pharmacies throughout Phnom Penh; she was arrested in Phnom Penh when she tried to mail them abroad]

Kampuchea Thmey, Vol.8, #1848, 16.1.2009

• Samdech Dekchor Hun Sen Presented the Potential of Natural Resources of Cambodia to Kuwait Investors [during his visit to Kuwait]
• To Let Their [10-year-old] Daughter Work for Other People in Phnom Penh for Pay Is Like to Let Them Mistreat Her; When a Girl Could Not Bear It Any Longer, She Escaped from a House and Asked for Help from the Police [she could no longer bear the work and the mistreatment, and could not go to school as had been promised to her parents; she escaped and she wants to return to her parents in Battambang]
• The Chinese Economy Reaches the Third Rank in the World [after the United States of America and Japan - the Chinese government estimates that the economic growth of 11.9% in 2007 can grow up to 13%]

Khmer Sthapana, Vol.2, #184, 16.1.2009

• The Sam Rainsy Party and the Human Rights Party Create an Alliance to Form a Democratic Political Movement

Koh Santepheap, Vol.42, #6553, 16.1.2009

• The Co-Judges of the Khmer Rouge Tribunal Decided to Set the Date for the Hearing of Former Tuol Sleng Prison Chief ‘Duch’ in March
• A Detestable Man Who Raped His [12-year-old] Daughter while His Wife Was at the End of Her Pregnancy Was Arrested and Brought to the [Preah Vihear] Court

Moneaksekar Khmer, Vol.16, #3667, 16.1.2009

• Promoting 70 More Military Officers Leads to More Serious Inflation
• The Phnom Penh Municipal Court Summons Khmer Rouge Tribunal Officials to Question Them about Corruption

Rasmei Angkor, Vol.16, #1403, 16.1.2009

• The Ministry of Health Seeks Self-Governing for State Hospitals [in Phnom Penh, in order to make them autonomous in finance, hoping that this will lead to better health care for patients]

Rasmei Kampuchea, Vol.17, #4796, 16.1.2009

• India Asks Cambodia to Produce Grains That Can Be Exported to India [according to a meeting between Deputy Prime Minister Sok An and the new Indian ambassador to Cambodia, Mr. Rajesh Kumar Sachdeva]
• In 2008, Khmer Tourists Traveling Abroad Decline by 200,000 [with a total number of 760,000, if compared to 2007, because plane tickets were too expensive while the fuel price skyrocketed]
• More Than 1,000 [Palestinian] People Died in Gaza [since the war started 19 days ago - among them, more than 300 were children and 76 were women - during the same time 13 citizens of Israel died - 4 in Israel, and 9 while invading Gaza]

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On Monday, 12 January 2009, we had the 100,000th visit to the Mirror – starting from January 2007.

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The Mirror, Vol. 13, No. 595

“In a meeting about textile problems among ASEAN member countries, organized in Phnom Penh last week, the Ministry of Commerce of Cambodia encouraged all garment exporting countries in the Southeast Asian region to join to persuade the United States of America to reduce import taxes. This encouragement was made because the garment industries of many exporting countries, including Cambodia, are being affected by the meltdown of the global economy.

“The Minister of Commerce of Cambodia, Mister Cham Prasidh, notorious for corruption, said that persuading the USA is crucial for exporting markets, and it might help to face the economic crisis. Mister Cham Prasidh added, ‘When there is such a global financial crisis, what you see is the decline of demands. How long can our garment sectors stand with this crisis? As we know, we all, more or less, depend on the market of the USA, and this is the reason why we have to continue to try to persuade the USA to be interested to provide us import facilities with reduced taxes or with no tax.’

“Moreover, Cham Prasidh, an in-law of [the Minister of the Council of Ministers] Sok An, went on to say that the garment sector can continue progressing as long as all ASEAN member countries cooperate to expand markets in the region, before receiving better conditions from the USA. Also the deputy director of the Indonesian Textile Association expressed support with what was mentioned above, saying that this was probably a difficult time which needs an immediate solution among ASEAN member countries. Particularly, there must be an encouragement to cooperate in order to compete on the world markets while all countries are facing this financial crisis.

“It should be noted that from 1999 to 2004, the USA provided garment importing quotas to Cambodia without charging import tax. After the Multi-Fibre Arrangement [also known as the international Agreement on Textile and Clothing, 1974 to 2004] system ended, Cambodia has to pay 12.5% tax on average, making prices of garment products from Cambodia becoming more expensive, and it is difficult to compete with products from many other countries in Asia, such as China, Siam [Thailand], Yuon [Vietnam], Indonesia, and Bangladesh; most of these countries also depend on markets in the USA and in Europe.

“However, since many years, the garment sector became the biggest source of income for Cambodia, and it provides employment to more than 350,000 workers in around 400 factories countrywide. Since 2004, garment exports to world markets increased between 20% and 25% every year. Among the income from the export of garment products of US$2.7 billion in total in 2007, the USA absorbed products from Cambodia – especially garments – and the highest level was more than US$1.9 billion, compared to US$600 million for the export to markets in Europe, and US$146 million for the export to Canada.

“Nevertheless, the garment sector in Cambodia is being affected by the decline of garment demand on the US market, after this country, the most powerful country, faced a serious economic meltdown since 2008. The Minister of Commerce of Cambodia said that the garment export from Cambodia to international markets declined by 2% in 2008, so that the government expects that the USA will have policies to promote this sector again. But economists and other experts said that this expectation seems to be baseless.

“The president of a garment factory association in Cambodia recently said that when the economy falls down like this, the USA also needs to help itself. Now, Cambodia is worrying, because so far, around 60 factories have gradually closed and approximately 25,000 workers lost their employment. From April 2009 on, there are little buying orders, and prices have to be lower than before, making many factories to face serious losses.

“Civil society officials observing the garment sector in Cambodia assessed that in mid 2009, 20 more factories will finally close, because they cannot cover losses by bank loans which are also strongly restricted. In the meantime, a foreign economist said that the situation of the Cambodian garment sector might be out of trouble in at most one or two years, when the economy of the USA is expected to grow stronger again. This means that the decline of the garment sector in Cambodia has to wait until the economy of the USA grows strong again, while tens of thousands of Khmer workers of this sector loose their employment and incomes.

“Analysts criticized that corruption in the Ministry of Commerce, managed by Cham Prasidh, and in the Ministry of Labor, administered by Vong Soth, is also a reason making the garment sector in Cambodia face serious decline, because corruption in these two ministries encourages garment factory owners to pay much kickback while their businesses do not earn much profit. Therefore, in order to prevent that the garment sector continues to decline sharply, the Hun Sen government must take action to eliminate corruption urgently, so that factories owners do not decide to close their factories and one after the other leave Cambodia.”Moneaksekar Khmer, Vol.16, #3664, 13.1.2009

Newspapers Appearing on the Newsstand:

Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Cheat Khmer, Vol.1, #2, 13.1.2009

• The Cambodian League for the Promotion and Defense of Human Rights [LICADHO] Published 84 Cases of Human Rights Violations in the Fourth Quarter of 2008

Kampuchea Thmey, Vol.8, #1845, 13.1.2009

• The Plan to Expand the Capacity of the VietTel Company Is Supported by Prime Minister Hun Sen [VietTel is a telecommunications company from Vietnam, and this company aims to help promote development in Cambodia, especially in education by providing Internet access to schools and by creating a foundation to help the government to alleviate poverty]

Khmer Aphivoath Sethakech, Vol.7, #322, 13.1.2009

• The Leader and His Terrorism Partisans [of four people who were involved in the setting of explosive devices in Phnom Penh recently] Were Accused by the Court of Creating Illegal Armed Forces, and of Terrorism
• Deputy Prime Minister Sar Kheng Said that Cambodia Is Not a Drug Producing Country
• The Sam Rainsy Party and the Human Rights Party Negotiate to Create an Alliance

Khmer Sthapana, Vol.2, #181, 13.1.2009

• More Than 60 People Protest in Front of the Provincial Primary Court to Ask for the Release of Mr. Hun Sengly from Jail [he was a representative of 415 families in Kos Krolor district in Battambang and was arrested in August 2008 regarding a land dispute]
• The Indian Embassy Reacts to the Deaths of Three Indians [in a car accident in Dangkao district in Phnom Penh, and demands the government to take action against the driver who caused the accident – one day after the accident, he escaped from a private hospital and from his house in Phnom Penh]
• [Thai Prime Minister] Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva Received the Majority of Votes in By-Elections [his party and their allies won 20 of the 29 seats]

Koh Santepheap, Vol.42, #6550, 13.1.2009

• A Farmer Couple Brought Their Children back from a Hospital [in Phnom Penh]; the Husband Died along the Road because of Pain [when he complained about strong pain , the taxi driver dropped him and his family along the road where he died – Kien Svay, Kandal]

Moneaksekar Khmer, Vol.16, #3664, 13.1.2009

• To Persuade the United States of America to Reduce Import Taxes of Garment Products Might Face Difficulties
• Khmer and Siamese [Thai] Prime Ministers Will Discuss Border Disputes in Hua Hin [in Thailand during the ASEAN Summit from 27 February to 1 March 2009 – according to the Bangkok Post]
• Can the Japanese Aid [of around US$21 million, promised by Japan on 11 January 2009] Make the Hearings of Former Khmer Rouge Leaders Proceed Soon?
• Result of the Investigation about Illegal Logging in the Kantuy Neak [Ratanakiri] Region Is Not Yet Revealed [four park rangers who were reported to be missing during a mission returned to the Vireakchey National Park, they were not missing, they were on a 15-day patrol in the park]

Rasmei Kampuchea, Vol.17, #4793, 13.1.2009

• Producers of the Opera “Where Elephants Weep” Apologize, as It Was Prevented to Be Shown in All Television Channels, Offensive Scenes Will Be Changed [after complaints by the Buddhist orders]
• Motorbike Competing with a Truck Collided with Another Truck Coming from the Opposite Direction, Causing Three Deaths [Kompong Speu]

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On January 2nd, HRP Myrtle Beach Holdings, LLC, the owner and operator of Hard Rock Park (a rock-’n-roll theme park in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina), filed a motion with the bankruptcy court requesting that its bankruptcy cases be converted from chapter 11 cases to chapter 7 cases.  Hard Rock Park opened in April 2008 but was unable to generate sufficient attendance to meet its cash flow requirements and HRP Myrtle Beach and its affiliates filed for bankruptcy protection on September 24, 2008.

Thereafter, the debtors attempted to sell substantially all of their assets under section 363 of the Bankruptcy Code.  The bankruptcy court entered an order approving bidding procedures on November 20, 2008.  Those approved bidding procedures contemplated an auction commencing on December 15, 2008 and a sale hearing commencing on December 18, 2008.  However, the debtors did not receive any bids for their assets that were on conditions acceptable to the debtors, their lenders and the Creditors’ Committee.  Moreover, the debtors’ debtor-in-possession financing facility has now expired.  As such, the debtors have determined that the best available option is to proceed with a liquidation under chapter 7 of the Bankruptcy Code.

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