140 millions d’internautes accèderont à Internet en très haut débit à l’horizon 2014. En attendant, l’Idate dresse un état des lieux du marché de la fibre optique dans le monde, et décrypte les structures des marchés régionaux.

L’accès très haut débit (FTTH/B et VDSL5 ensemble) devrait connaître une croissance continue durant les prochaines années, pour atteindre les 140 millions d’abonnés au niveau mondial en 2014. Selon l’Idate, les taux de progression resteront très différents en fonction des régions du monde et de la dynamique des marchés nationaux qui les composent.

La zone Asie-Pacifique devrait ainsi à elle seule compter les deux tiers des internautes ayant accès à Internet en très haut débit à l’horizon 2014. A cette date, L’Europe de l’Ouest aura dépassé l’Amérique du Nord en nombre d’internautes connectés en très haut débit, avec un peu plus de 20 millions de connectés.

En savoir plus…

Source : JournalDuNet

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Analyse – L’Asie, notamment grâce à la Chine, continue à jouer le rôle de locomotive. Les technologies FTTH et FTTB sont les plus utilisées dans le monde.

Les déploiements de la fibre optique dans le monde se poursuivent à grande vitesse, selon le dernier bilan de l’Idate. Quelle que soit la technologie utilisée (FTTB, FTTH, VDSL, FTTLA et FTTX+LAN), on comptait à fin 2008 pas moins de 48 millions d’abonnés, soit 39% de plus qu’un an auparavant (+ 8 millions).

L’Asie constitue le premier ‘foyer’ de la fibre optique dans le monde avec près de 5 millions de nouveaux abonnés en une seule année. La concentration la plus importante d’abonnés FTTH/B est localisée, ce n’est pas une surprise, au Japon et en Corée du Sud – avec près des quatre cinquième de l’ensemble des abonnés FTTH/B à fin 2008.

On compte désormais 22,7 millions d’abonnés dans cette zone (+4,8 millions). Une progression qui est également due aux nombreux déploiements en Chine.

Même tendance en Amérique du Nord avec 1,9 million d’abonnés supplémentaires en un an (pour un total de 5 millions). “Le marché US, qui se classe ainsi en troisième position derrière le Japon et la Corée du Sud, totalise 16% des abonnés au niveau mondial. Mais avec un taux de progression de 90% en 2008, les Etats-Unis s’imposent comme le marché FTTH/B à la plus forte croissance”, explique l’Idate.

1,5 million d’abonnés en Europe

Du côté de l’Europe, le nombre d’abonnés est encore faible (1,5 million) mais le taux de progression est important : +60% en un, soit 500 000 abonnés supplémentaires sur la période.

En savoir plus…

Source : ZDnet

A propos de la solution TooFAX® :

TooFAX® est une solution moderne et innovante de Fax dématérialisé, vous permettant l’envoi, la réception, et la sauvegarde de Fax par Internet et ou par e-mail. Depuis votre ordinateur de bureau ou portable, votre PDA, etc, TooFAX® vous permet de faxer par mail sur les 5 continents.

TooFAX® est la synthèse entre les atouts du Fax (rapidité, valeur juridique) et l’aspect pratique de l’e-mail.

- Site internet : http://www.toofax.com

- Site du service : http://www.service.toofax.com

- Vidéos de démonstration : http://www.video.toofax.com

- Groupe Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/toofax

- Club des utilisateurs de la solution : http://www.club.toofax.com

- Actualités en ligne des services TooFAX® :  http://twitter.com/toofax

- Blog  officiel de la gamme de services TooFAX® : http://toofax.wordpress.com/

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Key Statistics:

• Revenue service providers collect from cellular services hit $624 billion in 2008 (up 13% from 2007), and is expected to top $877 billion by 2010, reports Infonetics Research. They also note that between 2009 and 2013, worldwide mobile broadband service revenue will more than double. LTE service revenue is forecast to grow fast, reaching $41.7 billion in 2013, with the majority coming from North America by 2012, due to Verizon’s then AT&T’s LTE deployments. By 2013, W-CDMA/HSPA service revenue will be almost 5 times that of CDMA 1xEV-DO, as the majority of worldwide mobile subscribers are on GSM networks (Infonetics – http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39545.php)
• In Europe, LTE and its successors will be the primary technology to support these trends, according to new research from Coda, which sees a 50% CAGR for LTE in the next four years. In 2013, Europe will lead in LTE uptake, with 15m subscribers, the report says, ahead of north America on 7m and Asia-Pacific on 13m. But by 2016, Asia-Pacific will overtake on the back of Chinese adoption.Between 2012 and 2017, European LTE uptake will be driven primarily by video – which will see CAGR of 93%, followed by music/audio (79%), internet access (78%) and peer-to-peer traffic (77%) (http://www.rethink-wireless.com/?article_id=1871)
• According to iSuppli, a market research firm, IPTV is on track to grow 56percent in 2009 to reach 33.3 million subscribers worldwide. This is up from21.3 million in 2008. By 2010, iSuppli estimates that IPTV will register 52million subscribers growing to more than 115 million by 2013. The vastmajority of IPTV subscribers remain outside the U.S., over half of which arein Europe. (http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS127140+08-Sep-2009+PRN20090908)
• ABI finds that Wi-Fi in smartphones will grow from a 45% attach rate in 2009 to a 90% attach rate in 2014. Business customers are the primary adopters of smartphones and with increased penetration of Wi-Fi smartphones (http://umatoday.blogspot.com/2009/08/abi-researchs-latest-fmc-report.html)

• ABI Research forecasts indicate that the European managed mobile services market will total nearly $9 billion in 2009. The Asia-Pacific region follows a distant second, with a market size of about $5.7 billion. Total managed services revenue for 2009 is forecast to reach $22.2 billion.
• Juniper Research has estimates that the data revenues of MVNOs would increase from $0.5 billion in 2006 to $25.2 billion in 2012 (http://www.telecomcircle.com/2009/04/the-future-of-data-only-mvnos/)
• According to a recent Infonetics report, the overall WiMAX market grew 12 percent in the second quarter to $255 million. Alvarion led the market in the second quarter, followed by Motorola, the report said. Even more stunning, however, was the forecast for the years ahead. The WiMAX gear space is expected to increase to $4.9 billion in 2013 (http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/infonetics-wimax-equipment-market-hit-4-9b-2013/2009-08-28?utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss&cmp-id=OTC-RSS-FW0#ixzz0PabZz7M8)
• Wi-Fi chipset vendors will ship 1 billion units by 2011. By the end of the following year, a cumulative 5 billion such chipsets will have shipped since ABI began tracking Wi-Fi chipsets in 2000 (http://www.wirelessweek.com/News-Projection-1Billion-Wi-Fi-Chipsets-2011-081809.aspx)
• ABI predicts shipments of WiFi-capable handsets will double from 2009 to 2011. The research firm said that 144 million WiFi-capable handsets will be shipped this year, and number that will jump to just over 300 million in 2011 (http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/abi-wifi-capable-handset-shipments-double-every-two-years/2009-08-26?utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss&cmp-id=OTC-RSS-FW0#ixzz0PPLJ6xJo)

1. Ovum Report: Mobile Broadband Users and Revenues Forecast Pack to 2014, Published May 2009

http://www.reportbuyer.com/telecoms/broadband/mobile_broadband_users_revenues_forecast_pack_2014.html

• Total mobile broadband users will grow by 1024% to more than 2 billion by the end of 2014; 181 million users in 2008
• Number of mobile broadband handset users will surge to 1.8 billion in 2014 from 158 million in 2008
• 258 million new users will access mobile broadband on laptops in the next 5 years
• Total mobile broadband revenues grow by CAGR of 33% from 2008 to 2014; revenue will reach $137 billion globally in 2014, representing a 450% increase from 2008
• Emerging markets experience rapid growth throughout the forecast period but the developed markets continue to lead in terms of overall contribution; 40% of total mobile broadband laptop users will come from Asia Pacific, with China and India driving growth
• Total mobile broadband revenues not only stem the decline in SMS revenue but grow operators’ overall revenues
• Handset access to mobile broadband services exceeds laptop access by far but laptop ARPU is six times greater than handset ARPU
• Laptops are no longer the preserve of the enterprise; consumer adoption is growing

2. RNCOS Report: Global Mobile TV Forecast to 2013, Published 6/1/2009

http://www.free-press-release.com/news/200906/1243831156.html

• Number of mobile TV subscribers stood at nearly 70 million at the end of 2008
• Estimated to reach 100 million by end of 2009
• Japan and South Korea continue to be major adopters, collectively accounting for half of total mobile TV subscribers in 2008
• Significant growth expected in Asia-Pacific countries such as India and China over forecast period
• Forecast of number of mobile TV subscribers to reach nearly 450 million by 2013, growing at CAGR of 46%

3. Gartner Research, Published 6/23/2009

http://www.marketreportchina.com/market/article/content/3382/200906/203945.html

• Mobile Service Revenues in India projected to grow at CAGR of 12.5% from 2009-2013 to exceed 30 billion
• India mobile subscriber base set to exceed 771 million connections by 2013, growing at CAGR of 14.3% from 452 million in 2009
• Mobile market penetration projected to increase from 38.7% in 2009 to 63.5% in 2013; growth attributed to
  • Operators increasing focus on rural market
  • Local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment
  • Lower handset prices
• Prepaid connections accounted for more than 93% of all mobile connections in 2008, and are expected to grow to more than 96% of the connection base by 2013, surpassing 741 million, up from 312 million in 2008
• Postpaid subscriber base will exceed 29 million by 2013, growing at 2.5% from 23 million in 2008
• Churn rate in India is 53.2% in 2009; ratio expected to increase to 59.6% in 2013
• Revenues from data services will significantly contribute to overall growth of mobile services, with a CAGR of 16.8% from 2009 to 2013
• Prepaid subscribers expected to adopt data services faster than post-paid segment; bulk of revenues will continue to come from voice services
• Increased growth in data services will lead to the percentage of revenues coming from voice to reduce from 89% in 2008 to 86% in 2013

4. Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC): Global Mobile Phone Subscriber Base Forecast, Published 3/12/2009

http://mic.iii.org.tw/english/press/en_5_press_room_1_1.asp?selyear5=2009&doc_sqno=6869

• Worldwide Mobile Phone Subscriber CAGR in 2008-2013 is expected to be 6.5%
• In 2013, worldwide mobile phone subscriber base is forecast to reach 5.28 billion
• Worldwide penetration rate jumping from 57.3% in 2008 to 74.3% in 2013
• Between 2006 and 2008, mobile phone subscriber markets in many developed markets approached saturation; emerging markets such as China, India, Indonesia, Latin America, and several African countries became the growth engine; worldwide mobile phone subscriber base enjoyed double-digit growth rates during this period
• Penetration rate expected to break 60% in 2009
• WCDMA/HSPA subscriber base share of total global mobile phone subscriber base will increase to 29.1% in 2013, up from 8.2% in 2008
• As mobile operators begin accelerating switchover from 2G to 3G, GSM/GPRS/EDGE subscriber share is forecast to slip to 56.6% in 2013, down from 78.5% in 2008
• Driven by large-scale rollout of 3G systems and services, WCDMA/HSPA subscriber base reached 315 million in 2008
• CDMA/EV-DO subscriber base arrived at 132.9 million in 2008
• CDMA’s share of total mobile phone subscribers will reach 11.4% in 2013

5. Informa Telecoms & Media’s Global Mobile Forecasts to 2013, Published 12/12/2008

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/annual-mobile-revenues-hit-usd1-trillion-2013-global-subs-top-5-billion

• Annual revenues from global mobile market will top USD 1.03 trillion by 2013
• Number of subscriptions worldwide will have risen to more than 5.3 million
• From end-2007 to end-2013, global mobile market will see huge growth, increasing in size by over half (56%)
• Took over 20 years to reach 3 billion subscriptions, but another 1.9 billion net additions are forecast in just 6 years, with the global total nudging past 5 billion in 2011
• Total annual revenues derived from mobile operators will grow by over a third (33.9%), jumping from USD 769 billion in 2007 to USD 1.03 trillion in 2013
• 75% of global net additions between 2007 and 2013 will come from markets in Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America
• Nearly half (47%) of 1.9 billion global net adds will come from just five markets – India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia
• Mature markets of North America and Western Europe will in total contribute just 8% of global net adds, reflecting the high level of saturation in these markets
• Globally, subscription penetration will approach 75% mark in 2013
• Some countries will push past the 150% barrier – Romania (152%), Russia (153%), Italy (168%), Ukraine (173%) and Greece (183%)
• Growth in subscriptions will outstrip growth in subscribers (number of unique users), pointing to greater multi-SIM ownership
• Global ratio of subscriptions to subscribers will increase from 1.29 in 2007 to 1.32 in 2013. In Western Europe, the ratio will reach 1.55 in 2013, and even higher (1.75) in Eastern Europe
• Voice revenues will continue to make up the lion’s share of total revenues, but will see slowing growth, and even a decline from 2010 onwards
• Annual data revenues will more than double from USD 148 billion in 2007 to USD 347 billion in 2013. As a result, the total proportion of revenues generated by data services will increase from less than a fifth (19.2%) in 2007 to over a third (33.7%) at the end of 2013
• 2G will remain the dominant technology by subscription until 2013, when its market share will fall from over two thirds (66.9%) in 2007 to less than one third (32.7%) in 2013
• 3.5G technologies accounted for just 1.2% of total subscriptions in 2007, but will represent nearly a quarter (22.9%) of the total subscription base by 2013, and will exceed the number of 3G subscriptions

6. Cisco: Mobile Data Traffic to grow 66-fold by 2013, Published 2/11/2009

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2009/021109-cisco-mobile-data-traffic.html?ap1=rcb

• Mobile Web traffic volume will double every year between now and 2013, when traffic will total roughly 2.2 million terabytes per month
• Cisco predicts the biggest driver for traffic increase will come from video traffic, which will account for roughly 64% of all mobile traffic in 2013
• In 2008, video traffic will average around 13,000T per month, or roughly 39% of all mobile traffic
• By 2013, video traffic will increase by more than 100 times and will average around 1.3 million TB per month
• Handsets and laptops with speeds of higher than current 3G speeds will account for 80% of all mobile traffic by 2013
• The advent of smartphones and laptops with 3G aircards will lead to an explosion of mobile data traffic over the next five years, as an iPhone typically generates 30 times the mobile data traffic of a basic-feature phone, with a laptop generates 450 times the mobile data traffic of a basic feature phone

7. comScore: Mobile Internet Becoming a Daily Activity for Many, Published 3/16/2009

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2009/3/Daily_Mobile_Internet_Usage_Grows

• The number of people using their mobile device to access news and information on the Internet more than doubled from January 2008 to January 2009
• Among the audience of 63.2 million people who accessed news and information on their mobile device in January 2009, 22.4 million (35%) did so daily, more than double the size of the audience last year
• In January, 22.3 million people accessed news and information via a downloaded application
• Maps are the most popular downloaded application with 8.2 million users, while search was overwhelmingly favored use for SMS-based news and information access, with 14.1 million users
• Overall, 32.4 million people used SMS to access news and information in January

8. Infonetics: Mobile Internet Transformation, Published 12/3/2008

http://www.infonetics.com/whitepapers/2008-Infonetics-White-Paper-Mobile-Internet-Transformation-120308.pdf

• We are seeing a 400% to 800% year-over-year increase in traffic. This growth is driven by 4 major trends:
  • Rapid growth in high speed mobile broadband services based on HSPA, EV-DO, and WiMAX
  • New devices have emerged to consume this bandwidth, including dongles on laptops and a new generation of smartphones – of which the iPhone is the first instantiation
  • A host of new Web 2.0 applications, many of which made the transition from the wired world (e.g. Google Maps, YouTube)
  • Positive market impact of operator flat rate all-you-can-eat data plans

9. ABI Research: Mobile Devices Annual Market Overview, Published 1/26/2009

http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1355-35+Million+Netbook+Shipments+Expected+in+2009:+An+Era+Begins

• Forecast of 35 million shipments of netbooks this year
• Figure expected to rise to 139 million in 2013

10. ABI Research: Cellular PC Card Market Data, Published 2/18/2009

http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1372-Cellular+Modem+Shipments+Exceeded+35+Million+in+2008

• More than 35 million cellular modems used to connect laptops and netbooks to the Internet shipped in 2008
• Majority were external USB modems
• Further 3.5 million were embedded modems
• Shipments of embedded modems expected to double in 2009

11. Research and Markets: Global & China Netbook Industry Report, Published March 2009

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/47cbc4/global_china_net

• There are four main forces that promote the development of the netbook;
  • Consumers reliance on the Internet
  • Technology advance; the launch of the Atom platform by Intel, plus the integration of various technologies such as mechanical technology and electronic technology, led to the birth of the netbook
  • Profit-seeking by mobile operators; the arrival of 3G and 3.5G has laid the solid foundation for applications
  • Low price; like mobile phones, telecom operators may subsidize netbook manufacturers to realize extra low-price or even a free netbook to stimulate the development of the netbook market
• In 2009 the shipment is expected to reach 35 million, which is double that of 2008

12. Electronics Industry Market Research and Knowledge Network: Shifting to Embedded: 2008 Worldwide Cellular Modem Market, Published December 2008

http://www.electronics.ca/reports/wireless/cellular_modem.html

• 2007 shipments of cellular modems reached 12.6 million
• 2008 shipments expected to reach 20 million by year end
• Embedded modem shipments expected to overtake external by 2011
• USB modems are preferred external modem form factor

13. ABI Research: Cellular Modems and Mobile Broadband Connectivity, Published 5/29/2008

http://www.intomobile.com/2008/05/29/abi-research-cellular-modem-industry-will-exceed-200-million-units-by-2013.html

http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1271-Market+Forces+to+Drive+Embedded+Cellular+Modem+Sales+Over+83+Million+Units+in+2013, 10/22/2008

• Shipments of cellular modems expected to exceed 200 million units
• Embedded cellular modem sales expected to top 83 million units in 2013
• GSMA will spend $1 billion on Mobile Broadband Service Mark initiative, designed to create awareness of laptops with embedded connectivity; other drivers include
  • Qualcomm’s Gobi chipset that enables modem connectivity on both GSM and CDMA networks
  • Lower mobile broadband pricing
  • Networks maintaining their current EV-DO Rev A and HSPA air interfaces for at least two more years
• Sales of embedded cellular modems will increase to nearly $9 billion in 2013
• Cellular modem sales will top $22 billion by 2013

14. Nielsen Mobile: Mobile Data Cards, Published 8/19/2008

http://www.nielsenmobile.com/html/press%20releases/MobileDataCards.html

• There were more than 13 million wireless data card users in the US as of Q2 2008
• Recent adoption has been strong, with more than half (55%) of those devices acquired in the past 12 months
• PCMCIA cards accounted for 54% of mobile data cards; USB – 30%, embedded modules – 17%.
• As of Q2 2008, consumers report spending an average of $65 on their data card, excluding service costs
• 43% of mobile data card users report they most often use their data card at home, while 15% say they typically use the card at work
• One in five (21%) data card subscribers take advantage of ubiquitous access by heading outdoors and 9% use their card while commuting
• Of the 1,300 users surveyed, more than 99% had additional means of Internet at home; 40% had cable broadband and 34% had DSL
• 59% of mobile data card users say they might swap their ISP for data card use exclusively, giving wireless carriers one more inroad into the living room

15. Juniper Research: Future Mobile Enterprise: Forecasts, Markets & Devices 2009-2014, Published 3/24/2009

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=176&pr=133

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=176&pr=138

• Enterprise mobile devices to rise by 56% between 2008 and 2014, boosted by increased usage of mobile broadband. Reasons include
  • Wider availability of wireless broadband networks
  • Proliferation of ‘smart’ converged devices
  • Broadening ranges of mobile connectivity solutions
• Revenues from mobile enterprise users will grow to $247 billion by 2014
• The proportion of business mobile devices connected to 3.5G/3.9G networks will rise from 13% in 2008 to almost 80% in 2014
• Throughout the period, handsets will dominate, accounting for upwards of 70% of devices in the latter part of the period
• By the end of 2009, portables will account for 60% of all PC sales
• Usage of wireless dongles is losing ground to devices with embedded wireless modems and will peak in 2010/2011
• Number of enterprise portable computers with embedded wireless connectivity will grow by more than 300% between 2008 and 2014
• By 2014, 722 million business mobile connections will be in use worldwide; this will represent an increase of almost 60% over the forecast period
• Annual portable computer shipment volumes will exceed 300 million by 2014, accounting for over three quarters of all computer shipments that year

16. Juniper Research: LTE Mobile Broadband Report, Published 3/31/2009

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=177&pr=134

• Revenues from LTE Mobile Broadband subscribers will exceed $70 billion globally by 2014
• LTE’s main markets will be the developed nations of North America, Western Europe, the Far East and China, which together will account for 90% of the market of 2014
• Mobile commerce and payments, the mobile web and the need to return to economic growth will all drive mobile broadband

17. Juniper Research: WiMAX Broadband Report , Published 5/20/2009

http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?id=181&pr=140

• Revenues from WiMAX 802.16e broadband subscribers will exceed $15 billion  by 2014
• WiMAX will provide an improved experience for broadband customers who are receiving low speed DSL or cable modem services, or at the limit of DSL coverage
• North America, Far East & China and Western Europe together will account for 70% of market by 2014
• Africa, Middle East, South America, and Indian Sub Continent and Eastern Europe will together be worth $4 billion by 2014

18. MAGNA: Mobile Advertising Forecast, Published 5/5/2009

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/magna-mobile-advertising-forecast-may-2009

• The US market for mobile advertising will grow by 36%, rising from $169 million in 2008 to $229 million during 2009.
• A re-acceleration is expected in 2010 as the emerging mobile applications market organizes to support the sustained growth of ad-supported apps.
• The prevalence of mobile subscriptions (more than 270 million at the end of 2008 according to CTIA) and mobile users (224 million individuals according to Nielsen) has been the first catalyst
• The second catalyst has been the increased access to the mobile web; according to Comscore, 22 million individuals accessed the mobile web daily and 63 million monthly, up from 11 million and 37 million for each frequency during 2008
• 32% of AT&T Wireless’ contract subscribers possessed smart-phones at the end of Q1 2009
• The third catalyst is Apple iPhone and the company’s App Store

19. Pyramid Research: LTE’s Five-Year Global Forecast, Published May 2009

http://www.pyramidresearch.com/store/ins_gl_090513.htm?sc=TL_IGL1.1

• The number of Long Term Evolution (LTE) subscriptions will grow at a CAGR of 404% from 2010 to 2014 to reach 136 million by the end of 2014, a pace faster than any previous mobile standard including 3G
• “To date, 27 mobile operators worldwide have publicly committed to deploying LTE, with 12 of them expected to roll out commercial services in 2010 and the remainder during 2011 and 2012”
• While it took nearly six years for UMTS/HSPA to reach 100 million subscriptions, Pyramid predicts that LTE will take just over four years to reach the same milestone
• LTE will grow 30% faster in emerging markets than developed ones; subscriptions in emerging markets will account for 43% of the LTE total in 2014, up from 5% in 2010
• Fueled by vendor support of TDD-mode, growth in emerging markets will be driven largely by China with 36.1 million subscriptions in 2014.

20. Pyramid Research: Mobile Video Services: A Five-Year Global Market Forecast, Published 5/29/2009

http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=177359

• Mobile video services will generate some $16 billion in revenue worldwide in 2014 and represent 15% of all wireless data sales by that time in leading markets like the US
• Growth will be driven by a 37% increase in the total mobile subscriber base – to over 6.2 billion people – between now and 2014, coupled with the arrival of faster 3G and mobile broadband networks around the world
• At year-end 2008, 37% of mobile subscribers in North America and 29% in Western Europe will be connected to a 3G network. Over the next several years, several other regions will make inroads with 3G; in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, more than 50% of subscribers will be converted by 2014, up from about 5% at year-end 2008
• The Asia/Pacific region will represent 50% of all mobile subscribers by 2014, up from 44% today
• Global mobile video user base will surpass 534 million subscriptions by 2014, equivalent to 8.5% of all mobile subscriptions, up from the current 2.5% level. CAGR is slated to be 28% for the five-year period
• The US, Italy and Japan are identified as three of the leading markets for mobile video and TV today
• China and Chile are markets to watch for future growth, while mobile video is starting to grow in India
• A series of regulatory and technological barriers are still stifling growth

21. Juniper Research: Mobile Music Report, 5/26/2009

http://juniperresearch.com/shop/viewpressrelease.php?pr=141

• Combined revenue from mobile music services and full-track downloads are expected to increase from $2.5 billion in 2009 to $5.5 billion in 2013, driven by an array of factors;
  • Greater variety of applications and content
  • All-inclusive data packages
  • Consumer friendly UIs
  • Increase in handset storage capacity
• Those music services launched using an ad-funded model face a potential shortfall in revenue following a global spending reduction in advertising budgets; under the worse case scenario, adspend could reach just 50% of pre-downturn estimates
• The Far East & China region will account for the largest share of mobile music revenues throughout the 2009-2013 forecast period, followed by Western Europe

22. TowerGroup: From Niche Play to Mainstream Delivery Channel: US Mobile Banking Forecast, 2008-03, Published 5/26/2009

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/towergroup-mobile-banking-hits-mainstream-2009

• Mobile banking usage will grow from 10 million active users in 2009 to over 53 million active users in 2013, representing an annual growth rate of 51.8%

23. Chetan Sharma Consulting Market Data, Published 5/11/2009

http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/story/u-s-mobile-data-revenues-cross-10-billion-milestone/2009-05-11

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/us-wireless-data-market-update-q1-2009

• US wireless data market grew 5% quarter-over-quarter in S1, a year-over-year increase of 32%
• US Mobile Data revenues for the first time crossed the $10 billion benchmark
• Overall data revenues for the remainder of 2009 will grow 24% compared to 2008 totals to $42 billion for the year
• At Q1 2009 end, 62% of US subscribers are now using some form of mobile data services
• Messaging volume jumped 27% in Q1, translating to quarter-over-quarter messaging revenue increasing of 7%; US subscribers now average 485 messages per month, a frequency of one message per sub every 1.5 hours
• Non-messaging services now account for 50 to 60% of US carrier data revenues, the first time non-messaging share exceeded the 60% mark
• Sprint led in data ARPU with $15, followed by Verizon at $14.16
• In terms of percentage contribution, Verizon led with 27.91%, followed by AT&T at 27.2%
• Venture financing in the mobile sector also suffered a rapid decline, falling 58% compared to Q1 2008
• The 3G penetration in the US went past 40% in Q1 2009
• US subscription penetration went past 90%

24. Chetan Sharma Consulting, Global Wireless Data Market Update, Published 9/29/2008

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/global-wireless-data-market-update-1h-2008

• India and China are adding over 9 million subscriptions every month
• India crossed the 300 million subscription mark in August while China whizzed past 600 million in September
• Global subscriptions penetration edged past 50%
• Overall global mobile revenues (including equipment) for the year are likely to reach the 1 trillion mark by end of 2008, with approximately $800 billion attributed to service revenues
• Data revenues now account for almost 20% of the global service revenues

25. Global Industry Analysts, Broadband Satellite Services: A Global Strategic Business Report, Published 6/26/2009

http://www.satellitetoday.com/broadband/headlines/31485.html

• Broadband satellite services market projected to exceed $6.4 billion by 2015 as several new high-speed networking applications using existing bandwidth continue to drive the requirement for higher rates
• The number of global subscribers and sites for broadband satellite services will surpass the 3 million mark by 2010
• Europe is expected to post the fastest compounded annual growth rate between 2006 and 2015
• ·Next-generation broadband satellite systems are expected to equip total capacity in gigabit-per-second systems; GIA projects it is likely systems in the future would feature capacities in the range of terabits

26. Pyramid Research: Mobile Broadband Services in Malaysia, Published 6/26/2009

http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=15774155

• Over the next 5 years, the Malaysia telecom market will grow at a CAGR of 9.2%
• In 2014, it will generate US$11.7 billion thanks in part to increased demand for mobile and fixed broadband services
• Mobile penetration reached 98% in 2008, which is more than double the regional penetration of 47%
• Mobile penetration rate to increase to 133% by 2014
• Mobile broadband subscriptions in 2014 will number 2.6 million
• Three quarters of mobile revenue is generated by voice services; broadband data services will account for an increasing portion of mobile revenues over the next five years; mobile data services will account for 45% of all mobile revenue by 2014, driven by increases in adoption of mobile broadband services and mobile data applications

27. Strategy Analytics: 48% of Americans Would Drop Mobile Data Service Completely; 1,1100 household decision makers surveyed, Published 6/24/2009

http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=PressReleaseViewer&a0=4751

• Faced with the need to reduce household expenditures, 48% of Americans would drop their mobile data plan completely
• Only 10% would drop their home broadband subscription
• 12% said they would drop their pay-tv service completely, while 41% said they would scale their service back to a lower tier
• 56% of respondents said they would make no changes to their home fixed voice service, compared to 51% for mobile voice
• These results suggest that while American consumers consider home broadband service to be a vital utility, they see mobile data service as simply a ‘nice to have’

28. Entropy Economics: Bandwidth Boom: Measuring U.S. Communications Capacity from 2000 to 2008, Published 6/24/2009

http://entropyeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/bandwidth-boom-measuring-us-comm-capacity-2000-08-062409.pdf

• By the end of 2008, U.S. consumer bandwidth totaled 717 petabits per second
• On a per capita basis, U.S. consumers now enjoy almost 2.4 megabits per second of communications power, compared to just over 28 kilobits per second in 2000
• The ability to capitalize on all of the Internet’s proliferating applications and services and serices is on average about 100 times greater than it was in 2000
• Between 2000 and 2008, residential broadband subscribers grew to 80 million from 5 million.
• DSL and cable modems now commonly deliver 5 to 10 megabits or more to the user, up from a maximum of around 1 megabit per second in 2000, with current upstream bandwidth growing to one megabit or more
• Close to 3 million fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) links in the U.S. now routinely offer basic service of 20 megabits per second, with options of 50 megabits and even 100 megabits now possible
• From a total of 7 petabits per second in 2000, residential bandwidth grew to 391 petabits by the end of 2008
• U.S. information and communications technology (ICT) investment in 2008 totaled $455 billion, or 43% of all non-structure U.S. capital investment
• Between 2000 and 2008, nominal U.S. ICT investment totaled more than $3.5 trillion
• Continued investment on this scale will be required to;
  • Deliver more bandwidth to even more consumers and enlarge geographic coverage areas
  • Drive new innovations in crucial sectors like education and health care
  • Accommodate rapid compound data traffic growth with ever-greater real-time latency and quality-of-service requirements
• Over the last 8-year period;
  • Total residential bandwidth grew 54x
  • Total wireless bandwidth grew 542x
  • Total consumer bandwidth grew 91x
  • Residential bandwidth per capita grew 50x
  • Wireless bandwidth per capita grew 499x
  • Total consumer bandwidth per capita grew 84x, for a compound annual growth rate of 74%

29. Point Topic – Broadband and IPTV Statistics Report, Published 6/16/2009

http://www.telecompaper.com/news/article.aspx?cid=676528

• Global broadband subscribers grew by 16.6 million lines in Q1 to a total of 429.9 million
• Last quarter showed growth slightly higher than the previous three month period, as twenty countries grew by 10% of more
• DSL continues to be the most popular broadband access technology with 64.6% of all lines
• Fibre grew by more than 3 million lines to reflect 12.4% of market share
• Wireless broadband added over 1 million lines to a total of 5.58 million
• Number of IPTV subscribers approached 24 million after 9.8% quarterly growth, with expansion mainly in Europe and North America
• Western Europe is largest in IPTV market, with 11.4 million users, up 9.75% from December
• Western Europe is also the largest broadband region, with 108.1 million lines at the end of March, up 2.63%
• Eastern Europe showed a 5.75% improve to reach over 23.5 million broadband users
• South and East Asia is the second-largest market with 99 million subscribers, up 3.87%
• Asia Pacific showed the slowest quarterly growth of 1.82%, to finish March with 64.4 million broadband users
• Country with the most broadband users is China, with 88 million lines, followed by the US with 84 million.

30. Berg Insight, Mobile Broadband in Europe and North America, Published 5/30/2009

http://www.berginsight.com/ReportPDF/ProductSheet/bi-mbb4-ps.pdf

• HSPA now accounts for 12% of all broadband subscriptions in Europe
• HSPA now accounts for 5% of all broadband subscriptions in North America
• Total global number of shipped mobile broadband devices in 2008 was 37.2 million units
• European device market grew by 222% in 2008, but is likely to cool off in 2009 as operators start reducing their inventories
• Growth is forecasted to continue with shipments reaching 66 million units in 2014, fueled by integration in notebook PCs and strong demand for mobility
• The North American device market will experience rapid growth to reach 45 million shipments in 2014
• The ASP in Europe was reduced from about 100 Euros in 2007 to 45 Euros in 2008
• The US device market is still focused on business users and the Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE have not managed to capture significant market share
• ASP has remained as high as $150 in the US
• The total number of mobile broadband subscribers in the EU grew by 74% to reach 14.6 million in 2008, while estimated operator revenues reached 3.4 billion Euros
• European mobile broadband market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% to reach 7.6 billion Euros in 2014
• Number of mobile broadband subscribers in North America was about 4 million at the end of 2008
• Estimated service revenues were about $2.9 billion and are expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.9%, to reach $6.3 billion in 2014

31. Senza Fili Consulting, Bringing Wireless Broadband to Vertical Markets, Published February 2009

http://www.slideshare.net/GoWireless/new-senza-fili-verticals

• Vertical applications in 3G, WiMAX and LTE will generate $43 billion in service revenues by 2014
• Vertical connections will be equivalent to 7% of retail wireless broadband connections
• The largest market will be Asia Pacific, with 29% of connections
• Vehicle telematics and connectivity to the mobile workforce will be the two main applications
• Vertical connections will equal 24% of WiMAX retail connections, 16% of LTE retail conections, and 8% of 3G retail connections

32. Research and Markets, India, Telecoms Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts, Published June 2009

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3c6542/india_telecoms

• Mobile market continues to expand at an annual rate of around 50% into 2008
• By early 2009, India had 350 million mobile subscribers; this has grown from around 10 million in 2002
• A number of factors are responsible for this growth, including;
  • Low tariffs
  • Low handset prices
  • A highly competitive market created by the government and the regulator
• GSM remains dominant technology, but CDMA maintains a solid 25% market share
• Number of broadband Internet subscribers is starting to become more significant, having increased more than 70% in 2008, yet broadband subscribers comprised only 0.5% of the population at the start of 2009
• By early 2009 there were only 6 million broadband subscribers out of a total of around 18 million Internet subscribers
• Paradoxically, the overall level of Internet usage seems to be growing strongly, perhaps boosted by the widespread use of Internet cafes and other points of public online access; there were an estimated 90 million Internet users throughout the country by January 2009, representing a penetration rate of almost 9%
• DSL, representing about 81% of the local broadband market, is steadily losing market share to other non-DSL broadband platforms
• MCIT’s target of 500 million mobile telephone subscribers (fixed and mobile) by 2010 looks likely to be exceeded by around 100 million

33. Parks Associates, Broadband Services: Global Outlook, Published 7/8/09

http://www.parksassociates.com/research/reports/tocs/2009/broadbandglobal.htm

• The number of households worldwide with broadband access will reach close to 650 million by 2013
• Service providers will have to continue investing in network technologies to accommodate multiple services such as video-on-demand and converging social-networking applications
• Number of broadband households worldwide grew by over 18% in 2008 to exceed 400 million
• Asia-Pacific is the largest market, accounting for over 160 million subscribers, and it will have over 49% of the global market share by 2013

34. Coda Research Consultancy, Laptops to Drive Mobile Broadband Uptake, Published 7/17/2009.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/europe/story/laptops-drive-mobile-broadband-uptake-data-growth-40x-2017/2009-07-17

http://www.codarc.co.uk/mbpress.htm

• By 2017 there will be 418 million users of netbooks and laptops, generating 1.8 exabytes of traffic per month – fourty fold increase over 2009
• Mobile broadband revenues of nearly US$50 billion will come from netbook/laptop users by 2017, with the Asia-Pacific region having 162 million users, Europe 94 million and North America 58 million
• LTE will have half of all mobile broadband via netbook/laptop users
• LTE users will hit 38 million in 2013 after a ramp up in LTE production in 2012, and will rise to 209 million by 2017, a 1100% increase over 2012
• Mobile broadband user growth will not correspond with operator revenue growth, particularly in less wealthy regions of the Asia-Pacific, thus significantly affecting mobile broadband ARPU
• Operator revenues from Asia-Pacific will grow at only 50% of the rate of users, contrasting with 63% for Europe
• LTE ARPU will be 17% higher than for mobile broadband in general
• LTE operator revenues will be greatest in Europe, where they will rise by a CAGR of 47% from 2012 to 2017, and will form 83% of all mobile broadband revenues in that region
• LTE revenues from North America will grow significantly more at a CAGR of 59% between 2012 and 2017, and LTE will form 72% of its mobile broadband revenues
• LTE revenues will form only 13% of all mobile broadband revenues in the Middle East and Africa
• LTE usage via portables will lead to more traffic per user than for mobile broadband in general; this will further increase pressure upon network capacity, and will hit 1.1 exabytes per month in 2017; Asia-Pacific alone will take up 45% of this, whilst Europe will take up a third, and North America 17%
• Video will dominate mobile broadband traffic to and from portables, and will account for over half (53%) of traffic by 2017
• Nearly half of video traffic (47%) and nearly two thirds of P2P traffic will be consumed in Asia-Pacific

35. Telegeography, Who Can Access 3G/4G in 2013? Published 7/17/2009

http://gigaom.com/2009/07/17/data-the-future-of-the-internet-looks-highly-mobile/

http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=29304&email=html

• By the end of 2013 the addressable market for next generation cellular services (3G/4G) will have grown to over 4.5 billion potential subscribers; that will represent 71% of all wireless subscribers
• Virtually all wireless subscribers in Western Europe will have potential access to 3G/4G services, but Asia-Pacific will have only reached 60% of wireless subscribers by the end of 2013, held back by the cost and difficulty of extending coverage to vast and widely dispersed rural populations
• Actual take-up rates for 3G/4G services in 2013 will range from 25% of potential subscribers in Africa to 62% of Western Europe, with the differences being driven by:
  • Timing of service launch
  • Degree of local competition
  • Attractiveness of services and applications
  • Service pricing
  • Local income levels
• 28% of all wireless subscribers will be connected to 3G/4G networks by the end of 2013

36. Wireless Intelligence, Global Mobile Broadband Connections to Pass 150 Million, Published 7/21/2009

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/07-21-2009/0005063853&EDATE=

• Global HSPA connections will pass the 150 million mark by the end of summer
• More than 300 networks across 127 countries, approaching 1500 HSPA enabled devices; HSPA has firmly established itself as the worlds dominant mobile broadband technology and the fastest adopted mobile technology of all time
• AsiaPac accounts for almost 50 million live HSPA connections today and will have over 56 million by this September
• EMEA HSPA connections will pass the 50 million mark any day and will have reached almost 60 million by the end of September
• the US currently has almost 32 million HSPA connections with the number expected to rise to nearly 37 million by this September
• The Americas will ahve just over four million connections by the end of September
• 200 million connections expected by Q1 2010
• The success of HSPA mobile broadband is attracting a lot of attention from outside the ‘traditional’ mobile industry:
  • Consumer electronics, automotive, energy and utility industries are beginning to understand the possibilities of embedding mobile broadband into their products
  • Governments around the world are making the right spectrum available to support mobile broadband services today and into the future, ensuring their economics benefit from the GDP growth associated with the technology
  • Businesses and end users are embracing the freedom and productivity benefits offered by mobile broadband, driving flexible working practices and enabling impulsive mobile consumers to access the mobile internet on the move

37. Forrester Research, Mobile Internet Usage, Published 7/23/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=447536&mail=55

• According to a survey of 20,000 Europeans in France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK:
  • 13% of Western Europeans now access the Internet on their mobile device
  • 50% know they can use their mobile phone to access the Internet
• Growth in mobile broadband usage has led Nokia Siemens Networks to predict that data traffic will overtake voice traffic by 2011
• Mobile broadband is on the brink of large scale growth; there are similarities between the 13% using mobile Internet now and the 17% who were on fixed-line Internet access in 1999, before growth on that medium exploded
• NSN expects traffic to double from 400 million GB in 2009 to 2 billion GB a year by 2011, compared to 1.2 billion GB for voice
• 125 out of the 267 HSPA networks are in Europe
• Operators have moved to a more open Internet model, highlighted by Vodafone’s Betavine open API initiative and O2’s Litmus application store
• Over the last 18 months Europe’s mobile operators have deployed a number of other strategies to encourage mobile broadband usage, ranging from iPhone promotions to selling mobile-enabled ASUS laptops
• 6% receive email once a month or more, while 19% listened to music at least once a month
• 39% take pictures, 15% send MMS messages, and 65% send text messages at least once a month
• 44% of Europeans are only interested in using their mobile devices to make calls and send SMS messages

38. AMI-Partners, SMB’s IT Needs and Interests, Published 8/7/2009

http://www.ami-partners.com/index.php?target=news

Eleven-country study highlighted significant changes in SMB’s IT needs and interests; study’s focus was to analyze how the economy is impacting SMB’s perceptions, usage and purchasing behaviors related to IT. Among key changes identified:

• Drastic increase of SMB’s worldwide now showing very strong interest in managed services and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)
• Dramatic increase in SMB’s plans to oursource specific IT needs such as storage, security and telecommunications
• Most SMBs feel the economy is starting to stabilize, however businesses are still seeking ways to significantly reduce costs and increase revenues; this includes exploring IT products and services that can directly and immediately help ease exaggerated pain points like restricted cash flows and limited access to credit
• Over the last 12 months the influence of the business decision makers (or owners or presidents) has increased drastically; for example in a Q4 2008 study approximately 31% of SMBs stated their BDMs were involved in ‘brand selection’ while making an It purchase; this most recent study found the same number jumped to 83$

39. Juniper Research, Low-cost handsets, Published 8/11/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448022&mail=68

• Low-cost mobile phones will account for more than half of all new devices by 2014, according to a new report published by Juniper Research
• In five years mid-range market will be squeezed as low-cost handsets and smartphones together will make up 79% of all handsets shipped
• Low-cost handset shipments will number more than 700 million in 2014, up by 31% from levels in 2008, albeit down slightly from the peak of 716 million in 2012 as some users begin to upgrade to costlier devices
• Operators and vendors are preparing for an influx of new users from low-income socio-economic groups in developing markets, as well as increasing demand for high-end devices from users in developed markets
• Smartphone shipment volumes will grow continuously across the forecast period, reaching almost 360 million by the end of the period. It is expected than mid-range device sales volume will fall by more than 41% over the period
• Companies like Nokia, Apple and RIM, which target their portfolios towards either the the high-end or the low-end (or both like in Nokia’s case) stand to benefit from the trends forecast in the report
• Players operating in the mid-range market like Sony Ericsson and Motorola will have to rethink their strategy
• Indian subcontinent accounted for 23% of all low-cost handset sales in 2008, and that by 2014 it will account for 22%
• Juniper expects sales of cheap mobile phones in emerging markets to be further boosted by the rollout of low-cost localized services such as Nokia’s Life Tools

40. Mobile Future, Welcome to the Mobile Future, Published 8/11/2009

http://www.mobilefuture.org/page/invite/dwhitepaper/?source=huffpo

• Wireless industry in U.S. employs nearly 2.7 million Americans from application developers to retail store workers to network engineers
• Wireless industry contributes an estimated $100 billion annually to the U.S. GDP
• More than $325 billion of capital investment in domestic wireless infrastructure over last 25 years
• 2.2 trillion minutes spent by Americans talking on their mobile phones in 2008
• Since 2001, average wireless plan remains about $50, even though we spend 2.2 trillion minutes on phone in 2008 compared to 500 billion in 2001
• 95% of U.S. population has three or more wireless service choices, 60% of the population has at least five options
• 630 mobile devices available to U.S. consumers, compared with 147 available to UK consumers
• 1 trillion text messages sent in the U.S. in 2008
• Revenue per minute has declined nearly 90% since 1994
• Americans use twice as many minutes per month (829) as the second most talkative country (Hong Kong)
• 91% of wireless Americans keep their mobile device within arm’s reach 24 hours a day
• African-Americans are the most active users of the wireless Internet – and the fastest-growing mobile web population
• Estimated 500 million smartphones in use by 2012 globally
• Took 9 months for 1 billionth app to be downloaded from the day Apple app store opened
• Revenue from mobile applications expected to exceed $25 billion by 2014
• Six app stores offer nearly 100,000 mobile applications, many available for free
• 64% of 18 to 35 year olds relied on digital communications in the 2008 elections, saying it was the easiset way to access and share information

41. Research and Markets, Global – Key Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Statistics, Published 8/13/2009

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2009/08/13/4321730.htm

• While DSL continues to be the most popular access technology around the world, this dominance is slowly to be eroded by FttH in the years to come; as FttH penetration continues, customers can look forward to even faster services and the emergence of environmentally sustainable smart cities, offering advanced e-health, e-education, and e-government services
• Penetration of mobile phones has reached around 60% worldwide by mid-2009 (including multiple mobile subscriptions)
• Over 3 trillion text messages will be sent during 2009
• In 2009 Finland continued to offer the cheapest mobile call charges in Western Europe
• Consumers in the US use their mobile phones for longer per use than in other parts of the world, averaging over 800 minutes each month
• Mobile termination rates and roaming charges remain an important source of revenue for operators; however, pressure continues to mount on operators to lower their charges even further, despite some European operators already reporting a drop in overall revenue as a direct result of declining rates
• Revenue from mobile data, including SMS, now contributes as much as 25% to overall global mobile revenue
• Many users are switching to cheaper prepaid phones which do not generate as much ARPU as postpaid. Prepaid plans are being touted as a way to save money in the economic downturn

42. Frost and Sullivan, Asia-Pacific Fixed Broadband Market, Published 8/13/2009

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-13-2009/0005077076&EDATE=

• Asia-Pacific broadband subscribers are expected to grow 17.3% to reach 182 million users by the end of 2009, clocking estimated billings of US$44.9 billion, a rise of 13.3% over 2008
• Even as mobile broadband grows in tandem, fixed broadband uptake continues, due to various government initiatives such as Malaysia’s high-speed broadband (HSBB) project, Australia’s national broadband network (NBN), and Singapore’s iN2015 masterplan
• Telcos in developing markets continue to deploy basic xDSL infrastructure
• By next year broadband users in Asia-Pac are expected to breach 200-million-mark closing the year 2010 at 212.6 million
• Broadband user base in Asia-Pac region will grow at a CAGR of 14.1 annually from 2009-2014 to reach 342.9 million subscribers by end-2014.
• In 2014 the region’s household broadband penetration would have risen to 37.2%, up from only 18% last year, with revenues estimated at close to US$69 billion
• Consumer appetite for broadband will be spurred by the demand for high throughput value-added services such as IPTV and video-on-demand
• Services such as Web 2.0, social networking, file-sharing, online gaming, as well as falling PC prices and availability of low-cost netbooks have also added towards broadband consumption
• In 2008, top six Asia-Pac countries with the highest household broadband penetration rates were:
  • South Korea – 92.8%
  • Hong Kong – 85%
  • Singapore – 78.5%
  • Taiwan – 66%
  • Australia – 63.7%
  • Japan – 62.7%
• Remaining eight markets have household broadband penetration rates of less than 60%
• By number of subscribers, in 2008 China had the most fixed broadband users with 83.4 million (53.8% of the region’s total subscriber base), followed by Japan with 30 million and South Korea with 15.5 million
• In age of convergence and multi-play devices, both wireless and wireless broadband will be viewed as complementing technologies to offer subscribers with blender services; therefore there is no threat of mobile broadband to fixed broadband services

43. Pyramid Research, Mobile Data to Surpass Fixed Voice, Published 8/24/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39258.php?source=rss

• The U.S. communications market will reach $406 billion in 2014 as mobile data revenue climbs to $94 billion, surpassing fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) during the forecast period
• The U.S. communications market, including traditional pay-TV, generated $359 billion in service revenue in 2008 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5 percent from year-end 2009 to year-end 2014, reaching $406 billion in 2014
• Mobile data is already larger than fixed broadband and it will surpass fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) in 2011, climbing from $36 billion in 2008 to $94 billion in 2014
• Additional growth will be driven mostly by IP networks because IPTV will grow from $2 billion in 2008 to $15 billion in 2014
• VoIP will grow from $8 billion in 2008 to $22 billion in 2014 and fixed broadband will grow from $33 billion in 2008 to about $46 billion in 2014
• The decline of the PSTN voice revenue will result from the substitution of voice platforms both as fixed operators migrate customers to all-IP voice platforms and as consumers opt for mobile voice platforms, which also will eventually turn to IP
• Revenue related to mobile broadband access for laptops and Internet access for handsets will grow rapidly at CAGRs of 28 percent and 18 percent, respectively, from 2009 to 2014

44. Berg Insight, Femtocell Shipments Worldwide, Published 8/24/2009

http://www.wirelessdesignasia.com/article-11399-berginsightforecasts70millionusersoffemtocellsworldwideby2014-Asia.html

• Femtocell shipments will grow from 0.2 million units in 2009 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 127 percent to 12 million units worldwide in 2014
• European, North American and advanced markets in Asia Pacific will account for the vast majority of femtocell shipments
• By 2014, there will be almost six femtocells per macro base station and the number of users that connect to a femtocell on a regular basis is estimated to surpass 70 million

45. Infonetics Research, Mobile Broadband Cards, Routers, Services and Subscribers, Published 3/17/2009

http://www.infonetics.com/pr/2009/4q08-mobile-broadband-cards-routers-market-research-highlights.asp

• Worldwide, the number of mobile broadband subscribers (including W-CDMA/HSPA and CDMA2000/EV-DO) jumped 125% in 2008 over 2007, hitting 210.5 million, and are expected to top 1 billion by 2013
• Sales of mobile broadband PC cards and embedded mobile broadband cards topped $4.1 billion worldwide in 2008, and are expected to continue gathering momentum in 2009
• Worldwide mobile broadband router manufacturer revenue grew 114% in 2008 over 2007, although sales slowed in the second half of the year
• Huawei and Sony Ericsson tie for lead market share in mobile broadband cards by revenue in 2008, with Sony Ericsson’s strength based on W-CDMA/HSPA cards and dongles, and Huawei’s based on both HSPA and EV-DO and a broader mix of PC card and embedded card formats
• Several other major players, including Sierra, Novatel, and Option, also achieved market share in the mobile broadband cards segment
• Service provider revenue from mobile broadband services grew 45% in 2008 to hit $49.8 billion worldwide, and, though the global recession is hampering growth, mobile broadband service revenue is expected to grow in healthy double-digit percents over the next 5 years

46. In-Stat, Mobile Processor Review: The Battle for the Next Generation Consumer Devices,
Published 8/31/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS50954+31-Aug-2009+BW20090831

The mobile market is the highest growth end segment for the semiconductor
industry. Many consumer electronics devices still use MCUs and ASICs. However,
devices such as smartphones, MIDs, and mini-notes require higher level
functionality, programmability, and connectivity. As a result, these mobile
consumer devices are increasingly shifting toward merchant market processors,
reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). 

Merchant market processors offer higher levels of integration and performance
while reducing the device Original Equipment Manufacturer`s (OEMs) cost and time
to market. This is evident as the mobile market for merchant processing
solutions is expected to grow at a 22.3% CAGR through 2013 with the highest
total unit growth resulting from handheld applications like smartphones and
MIDs. By 2013, the market is projected to grow to about 775 million units. 

"Integration will be a key trend for future devices with multiple cores,
graphics/multimedia acceleration, and I/O all continuing to be integrated into
the processor," says Jim McGregor, In-Stat analyst. "Likewise, baseband
functionality will also be integrated into mobile processors for all
applications except PCs, which are less reliant on the connectivity and smaller
device footprint." 

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

* Among smartphones, 87% will feature mobile processors with integrated baseband
functionality by 2013.
* The estimated value of the processing, graphics/multimedia, and baseband
functions will all increase at double-digit growth rates over the next few
years.
* The battle for the fast-growing mobile semiconductor market will intensify in
late 2009 with the introduction of new processors from each camp-ARM and x86.

The research,"Mobile Processor Review: The Battle for the Next Generation
Consumer Devices"(#IN0904447SI),covers the worldwide market for mobile merchant
market processors, including CPUs, applications processors, and baseband
processors. It includes:

* Forecasts of TAM mobile processors by application, and market value TAM of
silicon functions in mobile devices, through 2013.
* Processor and vendor profiles of: Anyka, AMD, Broadcom, Chipnuts, Freescale,
Intel, Jade Chip, Marvell, MtekVision, NVIDIA, Pollux, Qualcomm, Renesas,
Samsung, Texas Instruments, VIA Technologies, and Vimicro.
* Examination of the competing architectures and integration trends for multiple
cores, graphics, I/O, and baseband functionality.

47. Forrester Research, Mobile Internet Adoption in Western Europe, Published 8/31/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/internetNews/idUSTRE57U1IQ20090831

• More than a third of consumers in Western Europe will access the Internet using their mobile phones by 2014
• Mobile Internet adoption is set to grow to 39% in Western Europe in 2014 from 13% in 2008
• Overall the number of individual mobile users in Western Europe is set to grow to 344 million at year-end 2014, from 334 million users by end of this year
• At the end of 2009, mobile Internet penetration will reach 17% in Western Europe, the same level of adoption that PCs with Internet access had in 1999

48. In-Stat, Wi-Fi Connectivity, Published 9/1/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39388.php?source=rss

• Wi-Fi enabled products continue to proliferate across nearly all categories, including computing, networking, consumer electronics and mobile devices. Over 1,000 new products were launched with Wi-Fi in 2008; 2009 promises to surpass that mark
• Among the key growth areas is stationary consumer electronics (CE) devices with Wi-Fi. Stationary CE devices include products that require access to a power source, such as televisions and digital photo frames. In 2008, manufacturers introduced nearly 100 new Wi-Fi enabled stationary CE products, up from 22 in 2007. Introductions are increasing in 2009, with over 55 in the first half of 2009
• Digital photo frames and digital audio players with Wi-Fi were among the key device types to see a surge in product introductions in 2008 compared to 2007. In 2009, Wi-Fi enabled digital televisions are among the highest growth of new product introductions for stationary CE devices
• Philips consumer electronics was among the most aggressive competitors, pushing an array of new Wi-Fi-equipped digital audio players and digital TVs. In the digital photo frame category, adoption of Wi-Fi in 2008 new product introductions was broad-based across 17 different competitors

• Hewlett Packard had the most Wi-Fi enabled new product introductions of any manufacturer in 2008, and nearly tripled their new product introductions in 2008 compared to 2007.
• Cisco leads the market in first half of 2009 with 802.11n-enabled product introductions overall. Samsung electronics leads market in 802.11n consumer electronics.
• 802.11 b/g solutions are still the dominant Wi-Fi technology in new product introductions in 2008. However, 802.11 Draft n 2.0 solutions are gaining rapidly, and are expected to become the most popular Wi-F technology across most product categories by the end of 2009.
• Philips, looking to grab a market leadership position in Internet-enabled television sets, released more Wi-Fi enabled television sets than the rest of the market combined.

49. Www.TelecomsMarketResearch.com, Will 3G Networks Cope? Published 9/1/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS148806+01-Sep-2009+BW20090901

http://www.telecomsmarketresearch.com/research/TMAAASFQ-Will-3G-Networks-Cope--.shtml

• 3G traffic volumes will continue to grow significantly and some HSPA networks will have capacity shortfalls by the middle of 2010
• 3G networks globally have seen substantial traffic growth, as some 2/2.5G customers have moved to 3G services and mobile broadband services have emerged
• Critical HSPA capacity will soon be used up, with the continued take-up of mobile broadband services and the migration of most 2/2.5G users to 3G services within five years
• Mobile broadband services are having a profound impact on networks, despite a mobile broadband penetration of less than 10% in most countries; such services are extremely network intensive; a mobile broadband customer using 1GB a month consumes the equivalent network capacity of over 7,000 minutes of voice telephony
• To the end of 2014, 3G traffic volumes in developed markets will increase 20-fold. Drivers include
  • Increased 3G penetration
  • Continued adoption of mobile broadband services
  • Escalating penetration of smart-phones
  • Proliferation of flat-rate service bundles
  • Increasing usage of 3G devices indoors
• There are significant differences in the outlook for different types of 3G operators; some incumbent 3G operators with large customer bases will face HSPA capacity shortfalls in mid-2010, or even earlier if customers migrate rapidly from 2/2.5G to 3g services. In contrast, new-entrant 3G operators will not suffer from severe short-term limitations of HSPA capacity, and will have a two-year window of opportunity to aggressively promote mobile broadband services

50. Coda Research Consultancy, Laptops and Netbooks: Mobile Broadband Traffic Across Regions 2009 – 2017, Published 9/3/2009

http://newsblaze.com/story/2009090300412500001.we/topstory.html

http://www.gadgetlite.com/2009/09/03/mobile-broadband-watching-videos/

• Portable laptop and netbook users will access 1.3 exabytes of video content per month by 2017 – a sixty fold increase over 2009
• This figure will account for 3/4 of all global traffic via mobile broadband portables
• The region for top video consumption will be Asia Pacific, which will account for just over half (53%) of all video traffic globally. In contrast Europe will account for 26% and North America 14%
• The prominence of Asia Pacific represents its overall broadband traffic consumption via portables
• Just under half (46%) of all global traffic via portables will be consumed in Asia Pacific due in part to mobile broadband being the sole vehicle for many people to access broadband in developing countries. To compare, Europe will account for 26% of all grlobal video traffic, North America 15%, Middle East and Africa for 5%, and Central and South America for 8%
• 2/3 of global traffic via portables will be via Long Term Evolution (LTE) come 2017
• Asia Pacific will consume just under half (45%) of global LTE traffic via portables
• However, Europe and North America will be ahead in terms of LTE takeup. 80% of traffic via portables in Europe will be via LTE, and three quarters of traffic in North America will be via LTE
• By falling behind in passing adequate legislation, many governments have hindered operators from keeping up with the behaviour and expectations of the majority of consumers. LTE will help meet consumers’ demands once it begins to impact the market, but this will not be until 2013
• Of particular note, according to Coda Research, is the type of data traffic that will drive this growth in Europe between 2012 and 2017:

• • Video will lead with a CAGR of 93 per cent
  • Audio traffic will see a CAGR of 79 per cent
  • Data (internet access, etc.) will experience a CAGR of 78 per cent
  • P2P will see a CAGR of 77 per cent
• European users will lead the charge into LTE with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50 per cent. This latest report from Coda Research states that, by 2013, North America will have seven million LTE users, Asia/Pacific 13 million and Europe 15 million. However, Europe will be overtaken by Asia/Pacific in 2016, with the Chinese becoming dominant users in the region.
• LTE revenues will greatest in Europe. LTE revenues in Europe will rise by a CAGR of 47% over 2012, and will form 83 per cent of all mobile broadband revenue in this region, while LTE revenues from North America will form 72 per cent of all mobile broadband revenues for this region

51. Idate, FTTH and FTTB Deployments, Published 9/3/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448593

• Asia accounts for nearly 80% of the world’s FTTH and FTTB subscribers
• Last year ended with over 22.7 million FTTH/B subscribers in Asia, up from 17.9 million at the end of 2007, boosted by recent Chinese investments and underpinned by established, large-scale deployments in Japan and South Korea
• There were approximately 29 million FTTH/B subscribers worldwide, which form part of a larger group of 28 million subscribers to a mix of fibre access technologies, which includes VDSL
• At the end of 2008 China’s ZTE and Huawei, and Mitsubishi of Japan held the world’s three top slots for FTTx equipment sales, according to Idate with market shares of 19%, 13% and 7%, respectively. The analyst firm estimated that as of the end of 2008 a total of 83.3 million FTTx ports had been deployed worldwide
• Although Asia dominates, the U.S. – where Verizon and AT&T both have been laying high-speed fibre access networks to offer triple play services – which experienced the steepest percentage rise in subscriber numbers last year.
• At the end of 2008 there were 5 million FTTx subscribers in North America, up 90% from the end of 2007, with 1.9 million new subscribers alone for FTTH and FTTB, as opposed to other FTTx technologies such as VDSL, fibre-to-the-last amplifier (FTTLA) and FTTX+LAN networks
• Meanwhile Europe, where the EC is still struggling to reach consensus on its new regulatory framework for telecoms, which will define next-generation access regulation, has been lagging
• At the end of 2008 Europe was home to only 1.5 million subscribers, or 5% of the world’s total, up from just over 1 million a year earlier, with Sweden, Italy, Norway, France, Denmark and the Netherlands together accounting for 81% of the subscriber base
• Whereas in large Asian markets the telcos dominated the market at the end of 2008 – NTT had a 73% share of the Japanese market, China Telecom a 65% share of its domestic market, followed by China Unicom with a 30% share, and Korea Telecom had a 33% share of its home market – the reverse is true in Europe.
• Municipalities and power utilities still accounted for 62% of the FTTH/B market in Europe at the end of 2008, with altnets and ISPs taking a further 25% and incumbents a mere 5% share
• The company predicts there will be 140 million FTTx subscribers worldwide by 2014, of which 114.4 million will subscribe to FTTH/B and 25.6 million will subscribe to VDSL. Of these just over 20 million will be in Europe, a further 20 million will be in North America, with Asia home to the remaining approximately 90 million

52. Nokia Siemens Networks, Mobile Data Traffic Growth, Broadband World Forum, Paris, 9/7/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448681&mail=86&C=0

• Mobile data traffic growth will outstrip fixed-line growth by a factor of 10 in the next five years
• Last year data traffic in fixed networks was up 50%; mobile data traffic grew by four times
• Mobile data network traffic will be up 300-fold in the next five years, compared with fixed going up 30 to 40 times
• By 2015 we will effectively be operating mobile data networks
• As the uptake of mobile data services increases, network providers will need to build a closer relationship with end users to enable their operator customers to improve the user experience and therefore reduce churn
• The challenge facing network providers to focus more on end-users is compounded by the increasing complexity in the access network, driven by the rising number of services and applications by consumers

53. Frost & Sullivan, Mobile Services in North Asia, Published 9/7/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39463.php?source=rss

• North Asia is light years ahead of other ASian sub-regions in terms of mobile service innovation and revenues, thanks to countries like Japan which is expected to launch LTE in 2010 – likely to be the first in the world – and along with South Korea, are two nations with the highest ARPU in Asia Pacific (Japan – US$53.20/month in 2008 and South Korea – US$38.04/month)
• Despite such heavyweights and market saturation in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea, juggernaut China ensures that mobile subscriber growth will most certainly continue
• The North Asian region is expected to be home to just over one billion mobile users by the end of 2009, representing a year-on-year subscriber growth of 15.3 percent; China alone will house 80 percent of that billion
• The mobile subscriber base in the region – covering five North Asian nations including Japan – grew 10.1 percent year-on-year to reach 878.1 million users in 2008, accounting for nearly half of the total mobile subscribers in Asia-Pacific (18 countries) last year
• Forecasted to grow at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 7.7 percent (2008-2014), North Asia’s mobile subscribers are expected to surpass 1.37 billion users by end-2014
• Mobile services in North Asia are expected to gross an estimated US$183 billion in revenues this year, and are forecasted to reach billings of US$229.8 billion by end-2014, at a CAGR of 5.2 percent (2008-2014)
• “The bulk of this growth, both in terms of subscribers and revenues, will naturally be driven by China,” says Frost & Sullivan senior industry analyst Jeff Teh. “With a mobile penetration rate of just 51.6 percent in 2008, China remains the largest and one of the fastest-growing mobile services market in the world.”
• Hong Kong’s mobile penetration rate stood at 133.2 percent in 2008, Japan at 86.5 percent, South Korea at 94 percent, and Taiwan at 110.9 percent
• In Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, Teh believes that growth, however marginal, will be driven less by subscriber addition and more by data usage prompted mainly by mobile broadband and 3G service uptake. Even so, just barely, “We expect intense price competition in these markets with the vast majority of mobile data subscribers using flat-rate plans,” he explains
• Given the high degree of competition, Teh expects operator revenues in these markets (ex-China) to grow at a low CAGR of under one percent from now till 2014
• Mobile operators in China however are expected to bill close to US$85.7 billion by the end of 2009, and close the year 2014 at revenues of US$132.6 billion – for a CAGR of 13 percent (2008-2014) – and 1.15 billion subscribers
• In 2008, China had 687.2 million subscribers, accounting for 78.2 percent of North Asia’s mobile users; Japan – 110.4 million (12.6 percent); South Korea – 45.6 million (5.2 percent); Taiwan – 25.6 million (2.9 percent); and Hong Kong – 9.3 million (1.1 percent)

54. Ericsson, Mobile Broadband Subscriber Growth, Broadband World Forum, Paris 9/7/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448676

• Swedish vendor’s new CEO predicts 7 billion subscribers by 2014, rising to 50 billion connections in 2020
• In five years we will have almost 3 billion mobile broadband subscribers
• Currently 4 billion mobile users worldwide; five years we are forecasting 7 billion; this number will naturally include some users with more than one SIM
• By 2020, broadband will move “from the phase of installation to the phase of deployment,” likening the development of broadband to that of steam, coal and iron, which spawned the railways, and steel and heavy engineering, which gave rise to steam ships; both developments created new ‘highways’, or opportunities to explore new places
• In 2020 mobile broadband will be massively deployed; telecoms players have the opportunity to take the lead in defining what applications and services will run on those highways
• 50 billion connections in 2020; not all of these connections will be used at all times, and not all will be human connections; Non-human connections could include the installation of soft SIM cards in cars, that could be programmed to turn on motorway lights late at night as needed, thereby reducing power consumption, or could facilitate virtual universities
• By 2050 the focus will be squarely on sustainability; with some investment, the telecoms industry could have the potential to reduce global CO2 emissions by 15-20%

55. ABI Research, Mobile Cloud Computing, Published 9/8/2009

http://www.internetnews.com/mobility/article.php/3837921

• The number of mobile device users tapping cloud computing services is a tiny fraction of the overall market today
• Over the next five years, there will be almost a billion subscribers to mobile cloud computing services, up from only 42.8 million in 2008
• 1.1% of all mobile subscribers using cloud computing services today will jump to almost 19% (998 million) by 2014
• Location-based services will help power a rapid uptick
• From 2008 through 2010, subscriber numbers will be driven by location-enabled services, particularly navigation and map applications; A total of 60 percent of the mobile Cloud application subscribers worldwide will use an application enabled by location during these years
• More broadly, ABI Research expects business productivity applications to dominate the mix of mobile cloud applications, particularly collaborative document sharing, scheduling, and sales force management apps. The major cloud players will lead the charge, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Amazon (GOOG: AMZN) and Salesforce (NYSE: CRM)
• Vendors are already matching cloud services and mobility to come up with some innovative commercial applications. The research study notes, for example, LiNk, from lock manufacturer Schlage. LiNK is a keyless lock system for the home that enables subscribers to remotely control not only the door lock, but heating/cooling, security cameras and light monitors, all via PC or mobile device
• By 2014, mobile cloud computing will become the leading mobile application development and deployment strategy, displacing today’s native and downloadable mobile applications
• Mobile device manufacturers are also developing new hardware to tap cloud services. Mobile phone chipset giant Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) expects its Snapdragon mobile chipset to appear in “smartbook” devices this year

56. Infonetics Research, Mobile Services and Subscribers Outlook: Voice, SMS/MMS, and Broadband, Published 9/9/09

http://au.sys-con.com/node/1099986

• Revenue service providers collected from cellular services hit $624 billion in 2008 (up 13% from 2007) and is expected to top $877 billion by 2010
• Between 2009 and 2013, worldwide mobile broadband service revenue will more than double
• While service provider revenue from mobile broadband and SMS/MMS (text messaging/multimedia messaging) services is growing rapidly, voice service continues to make up the large majority of service provider revenue
• Voice service revenue will grow slowly through 2013, driven by continuing mobile subscriber growth in developing countries and the gradual move from fixed to mobile voice in developing countries
• LTE service revenue is forecast to grow fast, reaching $41.7 billion in 2013, with the majority coming from North America by 2012, due to Verizon’s and then AT&T’s LTE deployments
• Asia Pacific leads the mobile broadband race, led by early adopters in Australia, Japan, and South Korea
• By 2013, W-CDMA/HSPA service revenue will be almost 5 times that of CDMA 1XEV-DO, as the majority of worldwide mobile subscribers are on GSM networks
• The number of mobile broadband subscribers is forecast to hit 1 billion in 2013

57. Infonetics, Telecom and Datacom Network Equipment, Published 7/15/2009

http://www.infonetics.com/pr/2009/1-total-telecom-datacom-market-research-highlights.asp

• Telecom and datacom equipment tracked by Infonetics Research grew 8% in 2008, with worldwide revenue totaling $150 billion, driven in large part by currency appreciation against the US dollar
• The two largest segments of the telecom/datacom market by revenue: service provider mobile/wireless infrastructure and enterprise router/switch/wireless LAN equipment
• Cisco leads the overall worldwide telecom/datacom network equipment market in 2008, followed by Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson; they dominate the enterprise segment
• The battle for service provider money rages on, with Ericsson maintaining its lead in the carrier network equipment segment in 2008, while Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia Siemens continue their neck and neck race for second
• The biggest increases in revenue market share in the service provider network equipment market in 2008 were made by Samsung, ZTE, and Huawei
• The Asia Pacific region, led by China and India, is forecast to increase its telecom/datacom revenue market share by 5 points from 2008 to 2013, taking from EMEA and North America

58. Infonetics, Mobile Broadband Cards, Routers, Services and Subscribers, Published 9/14/2009

http://uk.sys-con.com/node/1105700

• Huawei leads revenue market share in the fast-growing mobile broadband card market, based on healthy HSPA and EV-DO shipments and a broad mix of PC card and embedded card formats
• Several other vendors are doing well in this market as well, including Sierra Wireless, ZTE, Novatel, Sony-Ericsson, and Option. As mobile broadband spreads to developing countries, Huawei and ZTE expecetd to improve their market share, as both vendors perform strongly in these markets
• Mobile broadband card market grew 10% sequentially in the first half of 2009, driven by increased sdoption of HSPA and demand for netbooks
• Manufacturer revenue from mobile broadband cards is forecast to hit $8.4 billion worldwide by 2013
• Worldwide, the number of mobile broadband subscribers is expected to near 1 billion by 2013 (including phone and PC based W-CDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000/EV-DO, and LTE subscribers)
• Mobile subscriber growth is being fueled by people seeking basic voice service, particularly in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), all migrating to 3G, which in turn will drive mobile broadband subscriber adoption
• CDMA operators have been quicker off the blocks with mobile broadband, rolling out EV-DO earlier than GSM operators upgraded their networks to W-CDMA/HSPA, resulting in significantly higher CDMA2000/EV-DO mobile broadband card adoption
• Between 2009 and 2013, worldwide service provider revenue from mobile broadband services is forecast to more than double
• Companies tracked in Infonetics’ mobile broadband report include D-Link, Huawei, Kyocera, Motorola, NETGEAR, Novatel, Option, Proxicast, Sierra Wireless, SonicWALL, Sony-Ericsson, ZTE, and others.

59. ATLANTIC-ACM, U.S. Telecom Wired and Wireless Sizing and Share: 2009-2014, Published 9/15/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS108287+15-Sep-2009+BW20090915

• Projected 11% CAGR in Consumer VOIP revenue (2008-2014) will not be sufficient to offset the projected decline of 10% per year (compounded) from 2008 to 2014 in consumer switched voice revenue
• This will result in net decline of almost $16 billion in consumer voice market from 2008 to 2014
• Consumers are moving toward wireless-only solutions in some cases, and VoIP substitution in others
• While revenues in this particular segment will decline, this same technology migration is driving growth in other telecom segments such as wireless services and Internet access
• Total wireless revenues will overtake total wireline revenues by 2014, according to the study, and consumer Internet access growth will continue, adding $7 billion to the market through 2014
• Internet access growth will be driven by FTTH, plays by AT&T, Verizon and Qwest, which are projected to benefit fro a CAGR of 28% in revenues for those products from 2008 to 2014

60. Evalueserve, 3G services in India, Published 9/15/2009

http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=448944&mail=93&C=0

• India’s total mobile customer base will be close to 1 billion by the end of 2013, of which 275 million will be 3G subscribers
• This growth will be fuelled primarily by a decline in the price of 3G services, resulting from fierce competition among private players
• Evalueserve said it expects a price war to break out among the private operators as they battle for market share in the early stages of 3G service rollout. Operators will primarily target the under-24 age group, which makes up around 54% of India’s total population
• Unsurprisingly, the company expects customers in urban areas living above the poverty line to account for the lion’s share of 3G subscribers in the early years. Around 80% of all 3G subscribers by 2013 will be from this segment, with 50% of the total urban, above poverty line market having 3G by the same date
• At the other end of the scale, the below poverty line segment – both urban and rural – “is expected to remain dormant over four to five years following the launch of 3G,”
• Meanwhile, 3G will start to have an impact in the rural, above poverty line segment after 2011, when 3G services geared towards rural areas will come on line
• 3G handset sales will also grow rapidly between now and 2013. The number of 3G phones in circulation in India by that date is expected to reach 395 million up from more than 20 million today
• As handset manufacturers are preparing to launch 3G handsets for as low as US$100, it is expected that by 2013 3G handsets will account for over 40% of the total mobile handset base in India
• Evalueserve also said it expects total mobile penetration to reach 78.3% in India in 2013, up from around 30% last year
• Penetration in the above poverty line urban sector will be 142.5%, compared with 79% in the rural above poverty line market

61. Yankee Group, Beyond 4G Rhetoric: Capitalizing the Mobile Internet

http://uk.sys-con.com/node/1107932

• Mobile Internet is spawning new, tougher competition. Service providers are not only challenged to transform their businesses for the mobile Internet, but must also keep up with innovative non-carrier competitors, like device makers Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM and Nokia, as well as new entrants in emerging markets.
• High smartphone usage will continue to stress networks. Yankee Group surveys show 60 percent of users are likely or highly likely to purchase a smartphone as their next mobile device. Data traffic is expected to increase by more than 29 times between 2009 and 2015, with most demand coming from smartphones. In fact, the proportion of data traffic coming from smartphones will increase from 18.5 to 56 percent between 2009 and 2015.
• Service providers must overhaul their infrastructure. “In addition to moving to all-IP cores, service providers must adopt holistic strategies to transform their entire network, IT and operational ecosystems,” says Phil Marshall, senior research fellow and author of the report. “Service providers must capitalize on the mobile Internet or perish.”
• While 60 percent of users surveyed by Yankee Group say they are interested in mobile Internet access, just 3 percent say they are anxiously awaiting 4G and 43 percent say they have heard the term “4G” but don’t understand what it means. That disconnect is just one hurdle service providers must overcome before they can successfully reap the promise of 4G and the mobile Internet

62. Research and Markets, Laptops and Netbooks: Mobile Broadband Traffic Across Regions 2009 – 2017, Published 9/21/2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS107240+21-Sep-2009+BW20090921

* Traffic via portables to reach 1.8 exabytes per month by 2017 - a CAGR of 59%
over 2009.
* Nearly three quarters (1.3 exabytes) of this will be video traffic - a CAGR of
64% over 2009.
* Top region for video consumption will be Asia Pacific, which will account for
just over half (53%) of all video traffic globally. To contrast, Europe will
account for 26% of all global video traffic, and North America 14%.
* The prominence of Asia Pacific represents its overall broadband traffic
consumption via portables. Just under half (46%) of all global traffic via
portables will be consumed in Asia Pacific. This is due in part to mobile
broadband being the sole vehicle for many people to access broadband in
developing countries.
* To compare, Europe will account for 26% of all global traffic, North America
for 15%, Middle East and Africa for 5%, and Central and South America for 8%.
* Two thirds of global traffic via portables will be via Long Term Evolution
(LTE) come 2017.
* LTE to form two thirds of global traffic by 2017.
* Asia Pacific will consume just under half (45%) of global LTE traffic via
portables by 2017. However, Europe and North America will be ahead in terms of
LTE take up. 80% of traffic via portables in Europe will be via LTE, and three
quarters of traffic in North America will be via this specification.
* Service providers, content owners and rights' holders should be greatly
concerned about forecasts for video content consumed illegally in Asia Pacific.
This contrasts with most developed countries, where legal video will tend to
dominate mobile broadband traffic. Overall, the vast amount of traffic people
will consume worldwide will put pressure on operator revenues and network
capacity, necessitating radical efficiency drives.
* In the short term, increased frustration with bandwidth and speed will grow.
In parts of western Europe, as many as three quarters of users are dissatisfied
with the speeds they receive. We understand that government inaction is partly
to blame. By falling behind in passing adequate legislation, many governments
have hindered operators from keeping up with the behaviour and expectations of
the majority of consumers. LTE will help meet consumers' demands once it begins
to impact the market, but this will not be until 2013.

63. Infonetics Research, Residential Voice, Video and Data Services in North America: Market Outlook, Published 9/17/2009

http://blog.telephonyonline.com/briefingroom/2009/09/17/infonetics-residential-voice-video-and-data-services-to-hit-300-billion-by-2013/

- North American service provider revenue from residential voice, video and Internet access services hit $261 billion in 2008 and is expected to grow to $300 billion by 2013

- By 2011, the video services market will surpass the voice services market, but will be marked by high programming costs and tight margins

- Broadband access represents the true growth engine for residential services, with North American revenue growing at a 12% average annual rate from 2008 to 2013

- Comcast and DirecTV are in a tight battle in the residential video services segment, with Comcast holding on to the lead in 2008 by just 2 points

- Through its FiOS service, Verizon captures the majority of North American IPTV subscribers (54%) in 2008

- In 2008, wireline Internet access (e.g., dial-up, cable broadband, DSL, FTTH) had 64% household penetration in North America

- The percentage of North American households with traditional phone lines (PSTN voice service) is forecast to drop from 69% in 2007 to 26% by 2013, as consumers opt for mobile-only services or VoIP alternatives

64. Forward Concepts, 3G/LTE Enabled Notebook Computers, Published 9/17/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39651.php?source=rss

• Future netbook computer users are expected to place more emphasis on pervasive Internet connectivity that will drive increasingly higher penetration of embedded 3G (and later LTE) capability. This, coupled with increasing operator traction, will drive the growth of 3G Netbook category at a 124% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reaching 34 million units in 2014 reaching a 45% 3G/LTE attachment rate
• A report from Forward Concepts also notes that Smartbooks & Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) will ship with near-ubiquitous 3G/LTE connectivity and will benefit from the pent up demand for a compact multimedia intensive, always-on, ultra-mobile device. They project these devices to grow at a 176% CAGR reaching 63 million units in 2014
• As LTE networks begin to emerge in 2010, they will be the fastest growing air-interface technology in 3G/LTE Netbooks and Smartbooks/MIDs reaching 5 million and 4.1 million units, respectively, in 2014
• As a result of limited upward mobility of non-captive Smartphone O/S, Smartbooks are currently lacking an ‘anchor’ web-centric, multitasking and lightweight O/S capable of fully exploiting the ARM-based applications processors. It is unlikely that Microsoft will be porting Windows7 to ARM platforms, but Maemo, Android, and Chrome are among early O/S candidates for Smartbooks, whether they be based on ARM Processors or on X86 platforms, like Intel’s upcoming Moorestown
• The study provides detailed forecasts of Netbooks/Smartbooks & MIDs and compares them with our forecasts of Notebooks and Smartphones, as well. The individual integrated circuits forecast in the study are predicted to total $9.7 billion in 2014 and the report provides detailed forecasts for application processors, basebands, RF transceivers, and for the myriad of ancillary chips that make up the devices

65. ABI Research, WWAN Modem and Router Market Data, Published 9/21/2009

http://www.your-story.org/cellular-modem-and-router-market-on-target-for-46-million-shipments-in-2009-says-abi-research-35161/

http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1003050

• Shipments of cellular modems, which provide direct Internet connectivity to laptops and other portable devices, are forecast to exceed 46 million this year
• In the past two years, USB modems have quickly eclipsed PC cards. 82% of all modem types are now USB
• Their popularity is due to their simplicity – they resemble flash drives – and flexibility: they can be used on a wide variety of devices. The same conditions please the vendors as well
• While only high-end computers currently offer built-in modems, over time they will be included in less expensive models. When world economies improve, there will be more devices with embedded connectivity. Embedded module shipments are forecast to exceed USB modem shipments by early 2013
• Exiting 2008, the cellular module market had a distinctly Chinese flavor: Huawei accounted for 45% of all units shipped, while rival ZTE had captured a further 21% market share. The degree of consolidation on the USB form means economies of scale, and we are reaching a stage at which price becomes more important than availability
• A new product class has recently debuted: the “mobile router,” which provides online access via cellular connection and distributes it among nearby Wi-Fi-enabled devices. ABI characterizes these devices (best exemplified by Novatel’s recently introduced “Mi-Fi” product) as “so far more hype than end users,” but notes that they could, if widely adopted, slow the penetration rate of embedded modems

66. Chetan Sharma Consulting, 1st half of 2009 Update, Published 9/22/2009

http://gigaom.com/2009/09/22/us-leading-the-global-mobile-data-boom/

• China and India may be well on their way to dominating the voice world with billions of users, but when it comes to mobile data, U.S. companies are leading the charge, showing strong growth both in terms of overall traffic and revenue
• A lot of the growth in the U.S. is coming as a result of the availability of 3G services, flat-rate data plans and of course, mobile devices such as the iPhone

• Mobile data now accounts for 25 percent of total global service revenue.
• Verizon is the second-largest carrier in terms of mobile data, edging past China Mobile and closing in on NTT DoCoMo, which had revenues of $8 billion.
• U.S. data revenues were $20.6 billion vs. $16 billion for Japan and $8.6 billion for China during the first six months of this year.
• Top 10 global wireless carriers now account for 63 percent of global mobile data revenue.
• Biggest mobile growth was registered by Verizon, AT&T and Softbank. Two out of those three companies sell iPhones.
• Data revenue for the overall industry was up 10 percent from the second half of 2008, showing that the current craze for smartphones is helping to boost mobile Internet usage.

67. Analysys Mason, Mobile Data and Emerging Markets, Published 10/5/2009

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39915.php?source=rss

• The worldwide telecoms market will grow at a 6% CAGR to reach USD2.4 trillion in revenue in 2013; growth will be driven by mobile data services
• Communication service providers (CSPs) are launching 3G networks in many emerging markets, such as China and India, and LTE technology will become available in most mature markets during the next few years. Analysys Mason predicts that mobile data traffic will grow at a 131% CAGR through 2013
• While mobile data presents the greatest revenue opportunity for operators, it could also be their biggest challenge. They must find ways to monetise that traffic so that all of the value doesn’t go to device manufacturers, such as Apple and Nokia, and content owners. Flat-rate, ‘all-you-can-eat’ plans break the link between traffic and revenue, so are not a sustainable solution
• The report shows that CSPs have managed their costs successfully in a difficult environment. The global telecoms services market grew by 5% in 2008 to reach USD1.8 trillion in revenue, despite the economic downturn. Even more encouraging was the year-on-year growth in EBITDA, which stood at a very impressive 10%
• Mobile services continue to be the leading source of revenue. Mobile voice services accounted for 36% of global service revenue in 2008, and mobile data services accounted for 10%, while traditional voice services represented only 21%. There are more than twice as many mobile subscribers in the world as there are traditional voice lines – 4 billion versus 2 billion. In emerging markets, mobile services tend to account for an even larger share of service revenue – up to 58%, in some cases
• The mature markets of North America, Western Europe and developed Asia-Pacific accounted for 70% of global telecoms revenue in 2008, but the emerging markets registered greater growth rates. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central and Latin America, emerging Asia-Pacific, and Central and Eastern Europe all achieved double -digit revenue growth in 2008

We attended the recent 2009 Internet Dating Conference in Miami Beach (tough venue in late January, I know).  The conference targets the owners of internet dating sites and services (not users — although some of the owners drink their own cool-aid and date online, too). Honesty Online had a high-profile presence, with a booth and sponsorship.  Our CEO, Mark Ezra, and our SVP Biz Dev, Ric Fleisher, both spoke at conference seminars.

Attendance at the conference was down roughly 20% from last year, not surprising given how many companies are cutting back on discretionary spending in the current economy.  The reports we’ve heard from many dating websites, however, are that traffic is either steady or up.  Apparently, online dating is one thing people don’t cut back on when times are tough.

Based on formal and informal comments I heard from representatives of many dating sites, there’s one characteristic that’s true of every successful site, regardless of category — serious-relationship or “casual dating”, paid or free, traditional website or Facebook app.  A successful dating site is run by the numbers, and the most important numbers are sign-up numbers.

There was a spirited discussion at one conference seminar about how innovation and a greater emphasis on user experience should lead to higher user satisfaction, greater retention, and ultimately greater profits.  In the online dating industry, however, that romantic notion is apparently not the path to success.

This makes sense to me.  Online dating is by its nature a fickle enterprise.  The more value you deliver to the user (by pairing him or her up with a significant other), the quicker that user leaves your site.  Success in this industry naturally skews toward acquisition over retention.

Internet dating sites may be built on affairs of the heart, but success is based on unemotional business execution based on good analytics — just like most other web sites.

All content Copyright © 2009 Honesty Online, LLC. All rights reserved.

Hundreds of Democratic Activist and Leaders Statewide, and all over the West, breathed a big sigh of relief when John “Happy 72″ McCain picked that one Veep Candidate that would have probably won him Nevada, Colorado and locked down any …
zekesaysso.blogspot.com

The Democratic presidential candidate made his acceptance speech in an outdoor stadium, and frankly, despite the man’s overwhelming charisma, it wasn’t very good. Even his closest supporters said so. What’s more, most people thought his …
jackshow.blogs.com

[b]Washington Dispatch:[/b] Four years ago, the candidate called the CIA a “rogue organization;” now he’s advised by a former Chalabi promoter and Agency-basher. No …
www.democraticunderground.com

Ayer por la tarde tuvimos el placer de asistir a la presentación del Digiworld España 2008, el prestigioso informe sobre el macro sector TIC que IDATE y ENTER editan en este su cuarto año (post del Digiworld 2007 >>). Actualización: aquí están las presentaciones en un .pdf: dw08_presentaciones_compl

La presenteción tuvo lugar en el aula magna del Instituto de Empresa en María de Molina, donde agradecíamos el aire acondicionado, a tenor de la que estaba cayendo fuera…
¿Qué ha cambiado durante este último año?, ¿hacia dónde tiende el mercado?, ¿cómo vamos evolucinando en España?.
Palabras de introducción y bienvenida de Juan Soto, presidente de ENTER, que realiza una breve presentación de la andadura de ENTER durante sus cuatro años de vida.

A continuación, Andrés Font, director de ENTER, hizo una introducción a las conclusiones de la parte del informe referente a España; destaco especialmente la introducción de un nuevo apartado, el de análisis del sector a nivel de comunidades autónomas, una novedad en la edición de este año.
Las claves de la presentación de Font:
- en general desaceleración suave global del secotr.
- telecomunicaciones: más moviles y más rápidas.
- tecnologias de la información: se hacen portátiles de manera imparable.
- electrónica de consumo: los TV LCD ganan definitivamente la partida.
- equipamiento profesional: dotación versus uso. España va a peor. Hay equipos pero no se utilizan.
- B2B: nos posicionamos en la Europa del Sur…oeste.
- eadministración: una de cal y una de arena. Hay servicios disponibles, mas que en la media comunitaria, pero los ciudadanos no lo usan (increible…)
- TV: la TDT progresa adecuadamente.
- ocio digital: la joya de la corona. Los videojuegos totalmente en alza.
- CCAA: Madrid gana la liga

J.D. Seval (gracias por el esfuerzo de realizar la presentación en castellano!!) se encarga de realizar la presentación de IDATE y de las conclusiones del informe en la parte del resto del mundo.
- iphone y android
- facebook…succeeding Myspace
- microsoft/aquantive, google/doubleclick, yahoo/right media. Publicidad.
- consolidación de operadores: Telefónica-TelecomItalia, francetelecom-teliasonera.
Tendencias de futuro:
-la banda ancha móvil aún no ha encontrado su sitio.
-Internet: ¿hacia dónde camina?
-estructura de la industria: están cambiando los modelos denegocio.

Finalmente intervino Julian Salanave, Telecom Bussines Unit Director, IDATE. La verdad que no me he enterado mucho de lo que decía (presentación en inglés), aunque sí de lo que ponía en las transparencias Destaco la relevancia que le ha dado al nuevo marco de la telefonía; hay un gran descenso en el número de líneas fijas por el efecto sustitución de las móviles y la emergente competencia de la VoIP.

En el momento que esté disponible la versión del Digiworld en pdf y las presentaciones las enlazaremos. A los que hemos asistido, nos han regalado un ejemplar )

Actualización: aquí están las presentaciones en un .pdf: dw08_presentaciones_compl

Un abrazo,
aabrilru
presencia internet
audioconferencia
consultoría telecomunicaciones

ECONOMIE NUMERIQUE – Le câble HONOTUA en 2010 ? Et, après ?

Communiqué de presse publié sur le site de la Présidence polynésienne

Trois experts des sociétés de l’IDATE et ITD-Eu ont restitués, en présence de Gaston Tong Sang, Président de la Polynésie Française, les résultats de deux études menées à savoir la première sur l’impact économique de la mise en place du câble HONOTUA et la seconde portant plus spécifiquement sur le ciblage et le dimensionnement du village « pôle de compétitivité ». Un représentant du Haut commissaire, les élus de l’Assemblée territoriale de la Polynésie Française, les ministres du gouvernement et des représentants de la société civile ont également participé à cette réunion.

Dans son discours d’accueil, le Président a tout d’abord souligné que le 21ème siècle était celui de la communication. Il a précisé que si l’isolement géographique de la Polynésie Française était un handicap pour les entreprises exportatrices, en revanche, l’arrivée du câble HONOTUA permet de s’affranchir des distances et de rivaliser ainsi à armes égales avec celles du monde entier. « Nous ne pouvons ni nous ne devons rester à l’écart du mouvement mondial » a t-il insisté.

Georges Puchon, ministre en charge du développement de l’économie numérique, a quant à lui indiqué que les quelques éléments présentés faisaient parti d’un schéma global de développement de l’économie numérique ; avant d’ajouter que « le câble et l’implantation d’un village pôle de compétitivité représentaient des investissements importants pour la Polynésie et qu’ils permettront sans conteste à de nouvelles filières de naître induisant ainsi des créations d’emplois. »

Pas de « ANTI-OPT »

La première restitution, celle du câble sous-marin, s’est portée en particulier sur l’impact de celui-ci sur l’économie. Les principales problématiques suscitées, liées à l’arrivée de ce nouvel équipement, ont également été soulevées telles que les capacités d’accès, la qualité de service, le coût d’accès et notamment la position de l’OPT dans ce paysage des télécoms qui s’ouvre à la concurrence.

Ainsi, Alain Veyret s’est prononcé en faveur d’un modèle de « gagnant-gagnant ». L’ouverture à la concurrence ne doit pas signifier « anti-OPT ». Bien au contraire, l’OPT doit jouer son rôle de service public tout en assurant celui de régulateur. Cette nouvelle fonction repose principalement sur la définition des conditions d’accès aux opérateurs alternatifs au câble HONOTUA.

Un débit de 2 mégabit au lieu de 128k

L’arrivée du câble HONOTUA permettra aux consommateurs pour moins de 6000 francs de surfer avec une capacité de 2 méga bit soit 20 fois supérieur à celui d’aujourd’hui (128k). L’expert a recommandé au gouvernement d’adopter des actions fortes en direction des entreprises (développement de l’e-commerce, accompagnement de formations et de conseil adaptés), notamment dans les secteurs du tourisme (rapatriement des serveurs de données en Polynésie pour développer le savoir, numériser les bases de données et mieux les exploiter), de l’éducation (équiper les établissements scolaires en ordinateur et Internet) et aussi de la santé (permettre de diagnostiquer des pathologies à distance en équipant efficacement les archipels éloignés) .Un baromètre sera mis en place afin d’évaluer les investissements et décisions pris dans ces domaines.

Qu’est ce qu’un village Pôle de compétitivité ?

Le village pôle de compétitivité se définit, tout simplement, par une combinaison sur un espace géographique donné, d’entreprises, de centres de formation et d’unités de recherche ; engagés dans une démarche partenariale destinée à dégager des synergies autours de projets communs à caractère innovants. Ce même pôle devrait comprendre des bâtiments intelligents, bénéficier de dispositifs d’accompagnement fiscaux et disposer de ressources humaines qualifiées.

Des niches à développer

Les cinq niches préconisées par Michel Lacave, expert de l’ITD-Eu, qui représenteraient des opportunités de développement pour la Polynésie sont :

* 1- Les substances naturelles avec la biodiversité marine et terrestre

Les composantes de cette filière sont la cosmétologie, la pharmacopée, la perliculture, la nacre (utilisation comme bio-ressource notamment dans la chirurgie réparatrice osseuse), l’aquaculture … La valeur ajoutée du câble sur cette filière est, dans cet exemple, l’accessibilité aux réseaux d’organismes internationaux de recherche pour les chercheurs basés en Polynésie.

* 2- Les énergies renouvelables

Face au renchérissement du coût de l’énergie, cette niche constitue un enjeu important pour le fenua. Les composantes étant l’énergie de la mer (thermique et hydrolienne), solaire, éolienne, ce secteur est à développer. « Il y a un important travail de prospection à mener pour attirer des entreprises de recherche dans ce domaine » a précisé Michel Lacave. Le câble permettra d’accéder aux réseaux internationaux de recherche et de développement.

* 3- La maintenance et réparation navale

La Polynésie compte les plus beaux lagons au monde. Les composantes de la niche sont les services aux yachts et voiliers de luxe, aux flottilles de pêche opérant dans le Pacifique et ceux proposés sur le marché local (flottes de plaisance, pêche). Le câble permettra d’accéder en temps réel aux informations sur les disponibilités de services, de pièces détachées, véritable atout pour promouvoir la Polynésie dans le yachting de luxe par exemple. C’est en effet un argument rassurant pour les sociétés internationales de Yachting et pour les navigateurs.

* 4- Le Software et l’économie numérique

Les composantes sont les logiciels médicaux et hospitaliers, la rénovation de logiciels, le développement du logiciel libres, l’archivage numérique, le stockage de données, de banque de données. Tout ces éléments constituent des activités à développer et dressent le profil des entreprises à séduire.

* 5- L’audiovisuel et l’image son et numérisation

Le développement de cette niche pourrait tout à fait, à terme, attirer des entreprises de Californie. Les composantes sont les banques de données d’images, la production et la réalisation audiovisuelles, le web TV , la production d’image de synthèse et d’animation. Ce type de sociétés a bien évidemment besoin de haut débit pour transférer , stocker, chercher ses informations. Permettre aux cinéastes ou autres réalisateurs d’échanger en haut débit est une condition inévitable pour se démarquer des autres destinations exotiques.

* Autres : le secteur de l’aéronautique et l’éco-tourisme

D’autres secteurs ont également été présentés.

Des challenges à relever pour le fenua

Ces recommandations ont été riches et très instructives. L’expert a cependant rappelé que le pôle de compétitivité ne pouvait, à lui seul, résoudre les problèmes liés à l’emploi ou encore attirer des entreprises. En revanche, il a précisé que le nombre d’emplois créé se situerait entre 600 et 1500 sur trois années à condition que le pays relève les challenges suivants :

* – Développer le domaine de la recherche en partenariat avec l’université du pacifique, UC Berkeley (notamment pour les énergies renouvelables) par exemple.

* – Accroître les formations dans des domaines porteurs tels que la biodiversité et également promouvoir, plus efficacement, auprès des entreprises la «formation continue» dispensée aujourd’hui par l’université du Pacifique

* – Régler le problème du foncier et des infrastructures( parc de 6 à 8 hectares) en tenant compte de la disponibilité de la surface mais aussi du coût du m²

* – Attirer des projets innovants en sachant que le concours national de l’innovation a souvent récompensé des projets de polynésiens

* – Améliorer l’environnement fiscal avec notamment une zone franche dédiée à l’export

Lors de la réunion, des professionnels de l’informatique, des télécommunications tout comme des chefs d’entreprises murmuraient : « enfin, nous avons une visibilité sur l’impact du câble en Polynésie, c’est rassurant de savoir qu’on ne s’arrête pas juste à l’installation de celui-ci mais que des propositions sur le « oui, le câble ; Et après ? nous soient présentées. »

Groupe de réunion – de gauche à droite

Moana Blanchard (Président du Conseil d’administration de l’OPT), Michel Lacave (Expert de l’ITD-Eu), Teikinui Porlier (Représentant à l’assemblée de la Polynésie), Georges Puchon (ministre en charge du développement de l’économie numérique), Raymonde Raoulx (Présidente du CESC), Yannick Teriierooiterai (Directeur de Tikiphone) Alain Veyret (expert de l’IDATE), David Cousquer (expert de Trendeo), Maina Sage (Représentante à l’assemblée de la Polynésie), Karl Tefaatau (chef de service de la DDTIC), Michel Cerdini (Président de la Jeune chambre Economique)

Georges Puchon, ministre en charge du développement de l’économie numérique

My dear friend, Katy, got engaged on Christmas.  She is the first of my friends to do this.  I’m sure there will be a few more following her footsteps in the next couple of years, but it’s interesting for several reasons – of which I’m not going to list – that she is the first.

However, the fact that she is planning on doing this as opposed to this is a good indication of where I’m coming from.

Thanks to BreakUpEmail.com you no longer have to put any real thought into the breakup conversation.  It’s as simple as checking the appropriate boxes and an email is generated and ready to be delivered.  There are even clever sign off lines such as “I hope maggots devour your testicles” and “I won’t miss your ugly face” to really go out with a bang.  So head on over, end things in the most painless way possible (for you anyway), and enjoy your new singleness.

…is what I am currently reading. Over the weekend my cousin and I were talking about being single (as we both currently are), boys (naturally), and this book (witty essays by a Sex and the City writer). I would read aloud an excerpt and we would talk about it, laugh, draw a conclusion, and read the author’s solution.

An excerpt of note dealing with juggling a few guys at once: “Use nicknames for easy reference. If you’re having trouble keeping your love life straight, imagine how your friends feel.”

What amazes me is that my friends have been doing this for a long time now because, well, it IS hard to keep other people’s love lives straight. I’ve found the easiest to remember are those referenced by a country, personality trait, or person of fame. My favorite nicknames to date include: Jesus, Columbia, Princess, Diva, Israel, and Matt 1 (of 2 or 3, I can never remember). And, yes, these were all references to men.

Lesson of the day? Boys, we will pick you apart and pare you down better than the best of apple corers. Beware.

*Update* I forgot Tinkerbell. That is by far the best nickname. (Thanks for reminding me, Sarah.)

Another femtocell market forecast
Infonetics Research predicts the femtocell market will reach $630M in 2010. This is less than the most recent ABI Research prediction, but it’s still a big number. IDATE was recently even more aggressive than ABI, predicting 18 million UMTS femtocell shipments in 2011 (compared to ABI’s 13 million). Here’s a nice quote from the IDATE report: “…ip.access has a strong claim to the title of leading femtocell vendor as a result of its long years of experience, end-to-end product set and strong tie-ups with a wide range of value-chain partners and operators.”

Oyster 3G tops Xmas wishlist
Top of the Silicon.com’s list of gadgets to wish for this Christmas is the ip.access Oyster 3G femtocell.

Ericsson stalls on 3G femtocells
Over the last couple of weeks at the two recent femtocell conferences, Ericsson has been saying it favours 2G femtocells and doesn’t believe the market is ready for 3G. But analysts are suspicious that E/// might be trying to slow down the 3G femto market. “Femtocells serve to further commoditize the cellular base station market,” says Heavy Reading senior analyst Patrick Donegan. “Hence Ericsson welcomes the femtocell about as much as IBM welcomed the PC.”

BT evaluating femtocells
One potential customer for Ericsson’s 2G femtocells is BT, which has a guard band licence in the UK. However, femtocells would cause some confusion with BT’s WiFi dual mode service, Fusion, which has tanked in the UK.

Huawei trials femtocells in Ukraine
Unstrung reports that Huawei has secured a 3G femto trial with Ukrtelecom in the Ukraine.

New Analysys report on enterprise femto
Femtocells and picocells will be important in helping MNOs to respond to the threat of dual-mode cellular-WLAN services in the business sector, according to Dr Alastair Brydon of Analysys Research. According to the press release, femtocells can operate using cheaper transmission solutions than picocells. This isn’t the case with ip.access picocells, which use IP backhaul just like femtocells.

ABI’s new business case for femtocells
According to Stuart Carlaw, “It is imperative that carriers look to new value-added revenue streams, subscriber capture from other competitors, and innovative service offerings in order to make money out [of femtocells]. Voice alone will not be a long term winner.” This echoes recent findings from Analysys Research. I agree that “homezone tariffs” are not a compelling enough proposition to drive femtocells, but the simple voice coverage proposition should work just fine if the femtocell makes the difference between being able to make and receive mobile calls and not being able to. 15% of homes in North America have no voice coverage, and a further 25% have patchy coverage. But (I hear you say) surely that’s just America – surely Europe doesn’t have such issues. However, I discovered (from a conversation with a UK operator this week) that 9% of UK homes have no coverage.

Orange data usage surge
If you’re sceptical on the voice proposition for femtocells – don’t worry, demand for mobile data is soaring. Orange UK decided a while ago that they would go public with its mobile data figures through its Digital Media Index. The Index for the last 9 months shows that there has been an explosion in mobile data services, generating nearly 22% of network revenue. For example, Mobile TV revenue is almost double Orange’s forecast.

New UMA phone on T-Mo’s HotSpot@Home service
The Samsung t739 Katalyst is the fourth UMA handset to be offered by T-Mobile US. It’s a slider (wow!) but otherwise isn’t all that exciting. The 1.3 megapixel camera is hardly state-of-the-art, even for the US market.

Cable industry prefers WiFi
Dual mode is the answer, according to the WiFi enthusiasts at ThinkEquity “While dual-mode phones are not common, consumers, hungry for new features, shiny new gadgets,… turn over their phones faster than batteries can run down”. But one thing doesn’t quite add up. Why would these hungry technophiles want a basic 2G UMA phone??

picoChip awards
picoChip is also winning awards left, right and centre.

Telefonica O2 loses femtocell pioneer
Telefonica O2 group announced that CTO, Dave Williams, will be leaving at the end of April 2008. Williams is credited with overseeing the launch of Telefonica O2’s femtocell initiative.

I cannot wait for the movie version to come out. It’s been far too long since the series ended and I have watched my DVD’s (yes, of course I have the entire collection) to the point of exhaustion. Some of them don’t even play anymore. But it’s interesting that even still there is always an episode that I can watch and say “YES, you understand me!”

The girls are completely whacked out for the most part (seriously, most of their problems I’d hope you’d be able to solve by the time you graduate high school), but it’s so easy to relate to them that it’s easy to forgive and enjoy their craziness. You’ll find me at the theater, Snickers Popables in hand, the day it opens.

…if you’ve got a good narrative. The story of life.

Revenge is sweet. But don’t come crying to me when karma comes around and punches you in the face.

Yesterday, I got an e-mail by Stan Relihan, an extremely well connected user of linkedIn. In a recent podcast, he explains how he uses linkedIn to generate business relationships. His description of his usage of linked in is different from what we hear ordinarily, that is to say that you have to invite only people that you know beforehand. Stan is more in favour of an open network approach, and I think he is entirely right. In this podcast, he proves his point by showing that thanks to LinkedIn he has been able to connect to Vint Cerf himself. Thanks to my connection to Stan and others, I realised last night that I was only 2 degrees away from Vint too. Amazing!

This podcast triggered a few other thoughts, namely with regard to technology usage in the US and elsewhere and a potential halo effect. It was interesting to hear Stan say that Australians were lagging behind in terms of technology usage (certainly not in synch with their image on this side of the globe). As a matter of fact, this is something that I have heard in almost any country that I have visited, maybe if we except tiny Lithuania, where weather conditions are so adverse that technology now has almost acquired sacred-cow status. In fact, at the end of the day in an ever more globalised world where we think that everything is similar, that we all think the same, that we all behave the same, reality shows that it is not the case at all. In that ever more globalised world, individual country behaviours are still very different. And I have chosen a few examples in a mobile and telecommunications industry to prove my point. Here they are:

Depending on the technology difference in patterns is proven by numbers. Here are a few examples/questions:

• Who are the biggest users of mobile telephony? Italy (in 2007, equipment rate at 150% or the US at 84%)
• have a look namely at this Idate 2007 report on mobile telephony and compare mobile density in Western Europe and US
• Who is the biggest world user (handsdown, one in 3 in the world) of IPTV: US or France? Check Lynette Webb’s article on Futurelab’s blog
• Who are the biggest world users of 3G? Korea, Japan or US? (Idate 2007 report again but page 28)

Now, of course, the US is so big, that in terms of sheer market value they beat any other country hands down (they ususally account for 50-60% of the world’s market potential but these numbers are decreasing what with the BRIC countries and other emerging markets experiencing double digit growth) .

Tat is really the global paradox in my eyes. We are increasingly similar and uniform and still… behaviour patterns – despite globalisation – are still very very different from one end of the world to the other. At the end of the day, this world is a lot more diverse than people think and I think that this is what is making international business so exciting.

What about you? are you sad that there are differences or on the contrary, do you think that this is a great asset? hit this comment button and share your ideas with us now.

• download the Idate 2007 report on mobile usage

I got an invite yesterday for a new social networking site called Quechup. It came from someone I know, so I gave it a look, and did the minimum sign-up. I always like to check these systems, see how they compare. I’m pretty stuck on Facebook now, but it’s good to know what’s going on on the web.

It didn’t look very impressive to me. I used the facility – which all these networking sites have now – of checking your email contacts for people you know who might already be on Quechup. It returned no results. Well, that’s a rubbish system, then, I thought, and logged out of the page, planning never to return.

I now see that Quechup did not simply check my address book and give me a chance to invite people, like all the other systems do. In their zeal for new members, they seem to have automatically sent an invite for their piece-of-crap system to every single person in my email address book. And single Gmail captures the address of everyone you email, that means every person, every business, everyone I’ve emailed in the last 4 years. Without asking me first. The person who I got the invite from was stung in the same way.

So, if you got one, I’m sorry for the spam from Quechup. It was not my intention, and they did not warn me they would do this. And it seems it’s happening to lots of people. Assholes.

Don’t sign up, and tell others not to. I have cancelled my Quechup account. Speak poorly of them, and their parent company iDate, everywhere.