I can smell the downgrades being written as I type after sales numbers were released today from Black Friday and folks, it ain’t pretty.  A miniscule increase of 0.5% vs. 3.0% in 2008 and 8.3% in 2007.  OUCH!  If that’s not proof that while the Bernanke states the recession is over, the consumer is just now beginning to show just how cashstrapped his/she truly is.   Looking closer at the retail ETF, XRT, it has retraced over 61.8% from the ‘07 high and is sitting pretty in a triangle.  Daring traders will just try to short it premarket on Monday while others [more prudent] will wait for a break below the triangle on higher volume before jumping in; thus increasing the volume selloff.  I just don’t see how any pundits or tv news personalities will be able to spin this in a Bullish manner, other than to say “it’ll improve by Christmas”.  Come on.  What a joke.  Here are six retailers that have already broken down or are near breaking.  The recession may be over for the banks but for the consumer, it’s down into the firey pit of unemployment Hell.  Let’s at least take the retailers down there with us.  Downgrade ‘em…………..downgrade ‘em now boys.

A holiday card from New York & Co. (NWY). Photo James Perkins

Holidays are more than just nice, they are a necessity. Sure we have the weekends, but many people work on the weekends. So what can really force everyone to stop working? Holidays. We need them to rest and to rejuvenate. Many of us neglect our recreational activities which allow for our re-creation. But we deserve and need a forced break; doesn’t the market deserve one too? So this kind of makes the recession the market’s holiday. I know this doesn’t make it any better, and we all want to be plugged back in to the Matrix, but it does remind us that the holiday will eventually come to an end. -TJP

At $42.95 and half off for black friday, this New York & Co. cotton version of a motorcycle jacket offers a lot of ironic style and value. The cotton motorcycle jacket looks like something American Apparel would have beaten everybody to the punch on. During these times, New York and Company (NWY) may be poised to win important market share away from some the more expensive fashion players, and if they keep getting things like this right, their stock will be as cool as this jacket that also looks great on guys. Photo James Perkins

While Black Friday, by every early indication, had done everything asked of it — and more, it seemed, than pessimists had expected of it — it failed to wrest Wall Street’s post-holiday spotlight from a corporate debt crisis on the far side of the globe.

The Dubai World story had captivated and frustrated markets beginning late Wednesday, when U.A.E. city-state Dubai, the controlling stakeholder, raised a red flag by announcing — with, it should be noted, holidays looming in the Muslim world as well as in the U.S. — a restructuring of the flashy conglomerate and a six-month standstill on its debt.

An ultimate default, of course, is the market’s chief fear, with banks around the world suffering severe collateral damage.

It was, as MarketWatch assistant managing editor Tom Bemis wrote, an important real-world stress test of the global financial system — a test whose results, so far, are mixed, with most European markets recovering from Thursday’s drubbings in Friday action but U.S. stocks only managing to salve Friday’s deepest wounds.

Friday’s declines left the main U.S. stock gauges in the red for the week — the Dow (DJIA) and Nasdaq (COMP) by 0.1% and the S&P 500 (SPX) by a razor-thin 0.01%.

As always I welcome your thoughts and would be more than happy to talk with you regarding any questions or concerns you may have. Please feel free to contact me at 949-209-9441, or matt@mktwealthmanagement.com.  

Best regards,

The indications were almost uniformly upbeat Friday as the holiday shopping season got underway. Five thousand customers outside Macy’s in Manhattan before the doors opened at the crack of dawn. Five hundred free breakfasts snapped up in 20 minutes at a Florida shopping center. Long lines at Best Buy stores in various geographies. Conspicuous consumption at the Garden State Mall in New Jersey. Shoppers in the nation’s capital paying surrogates $20 to endure out-the-door lines in their stead. See full story on retail’s Black Friday.

U.S. banks are likely less exposed than their European counterparts to a potential debt default by Dubai World, but a lack of transparency and the interconnectedness of the modern financial system make it difficult to know which institutions are ultimately exposed, analysts said Friday. See full story on the banking industry’s potential exposure to Dubai World’s debt crisis.

Gold has long been favored by a fringe of the investment world. This year, however, some of the world’s leading hedge-fund managers have loaded up on the precious metal. Some are concerned that government efforts to avoid another Great Depression could undermine major currencies and fuel rampant inflation. Find out more about the latest generation of gold bugs.

Sales of new homes rose 6.2% in October, boosted by strong results in the South, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 was well above the 390,000 pace that economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected. Read more about the latest housing data .

A sharp rise in Chinese car sales and vehicle ownership hasn’t been reflected in nationwide gasoline consumption this year, an anomaly that has some analysts scratching their heads in search of answers. The disconnect has sparked a range of possible explanations — and some suspicious musings. Read more about China’s car sales .

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reported a 14% gain in quarterly profit, despite a dip in sales, as the Silicon Valley behemoth reeled from lower revenue in its key PC and printer segments. But the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company also posted a higher revenue for its information-technology services business, underscoring H-P’s transformation from a traditional hardware maker. Read more about H-P’s results .

Swedish carmaker Koenigsegg backed out of its deal to buy Saab from General Motors, leaving the Detroit giant with another European name plate it had initially planned on selling. GM and Koenigsegg reached a binding agreement on the cash-bleeding Saab brand back in August, two months after the two automakers signed a letter of intent. Read more about the Saab deal .

Hunting for a job is never easy, particularly in labor markets like this one, but it can be even harder when your hair is going gray. Even if age bias were rare — and many say it’s not — after a rejection or three, it can become difficult to go to another job interview without the worrisome feeling that stereotypes are working against you. But that attitude may torpedo your chances of landing a job. Get some tips on finding that job .

The number of distressed banks in the U.S. rose to the highest level in 16 years in the third quarter, and the insurance fund used to protect bank depositors swung to a negative balance, according to a report released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund, which is used to protect depositors, swung to an $8.2 billion loss in the third quarter, the largest drop since the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1990s. Read more about the troubled banks .

Spurred by government stimulus programs, the economy expanded at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported. However, the 2.8% growth rate is below the government’s initial estimate of 3.5% due to downward revisions in consumer spending and business investment in nonresidential structures, as well as changes to imports and exports. Despite the downward revision, growth in the third quarter was the strongest in two years, the government said. Read more about the GDP data .

Statistics

 

“I’m sorry. My Broker-in-Charge does not permit us to do lease options.  She said the percent of people that actually purchase is 8%.”  (Charlotte Realtor)

“Statistics are like a drunk with a lamppost: used more for support than illumination.”  (Winston Churchill)

Wow- 8%!  I still can’t get over that figure.  The things that come to the top of my head when I hear 8% are a:

• Lousy tip
• High sales tax rate
• Decent annual investment return

I began to wonder about where this 8% statistic could possibly be derived from and how accurate it could be.  The last time I checked, the National Association of Realtors doesn’t keep this statistic and I’m not sure how they could.  Non-licensed investors seem to do more of these which would take it out of NAR’s jurisdiction.  Home sales are public record and I’ve never seen them broken down into “Regular Sales” and “Lease Option Sales.”  The only person you need to tell that you want to exercise your option to purchase is the seller; then a normal closing occurs.  So I’m at a loss.  Did they take a representative sample?  Of whom and how did they find these people?  Most people don’t register the options at the courthouse.  Hmmm…  8%…

So I’m going to assume that this BIC was using this clumsily manufactured 8% statistic to support her firm’s wanting to sell homes and get the full sales commission right away.  She was not trying to illuminate the public about her doctoral thesis, “The Myth of Lease Options in the 21^st Century Post-Modern Era” where she painstakingly interviewed all home owners in the largest 20 cities in the United States.

I’m also going off the assumption that her point was that lease option deals don’t close often enough.  That I am most certainly going to agree with!  So the question is why.  It boils down to the lease option tenant either not wanting to pull the trigger and purchase or being unable to get financing.  It’s usually the latter.

To combat his, the top 5 things you can do to increase the odds of your lease option tenant buying the home they are renting are:

1. Make sure they have the ability to buy the home during their lease period!  Taking an option fee when the tenant has no reasonable way of purchasing during their rental is basically stealing!  This also makes a sale impossible.
2. Make sure the tenant has skin in the game by collecting a moderately sizeable option fee.  You can use your own discretion, but 1-5% usually works with a $3K floor. 
3. Entice the tenant to purchase by offering monthly rent credits (10-20% is sufficient).  This makes it so they are walking away from a good amount of cash if they choose not to buy.
4. Use some of the option money to pay for half of the credit repair.  Ask the tenant to pay the other half.  People only value things that they pay for.
5. Align yourself with a good mortgage or credit repair professional that is going to provide on-going credit and budget counseling to the tenant.

If you practice these 5 things, you may help push the national lease option closing average to 9%!

Brett Furniss is the President & Owner of BDF Realty, “Charlotte’s Most Innovative Property Management & Investment Company”specializing in rent-to-own (lease options) and rent-to-sell homes.  You can follow his Twitter thoughts on the Charlotte real estate market by clicking on http://Twitter.com/BDFRealty.  He is the author of the FREE E-Manual entitled “How to Rent-To-Sell Your Own Home” (http://www.RentToSell.com/RTS-Book.html) which details how to get the most potential buyers to your home in this challenging real estate market.

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

The Sunnyvale, California-based Internet firm said revenue declined 12 per cent to $US1.6 billion ($1.67 billion) in the quarter which ended on September 30.

But net profit more than tripled to $US186 million, or 13 cents per share, from $US54 million, or four cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Analysts had been expecting seven cents per share for the quarter and revenue of $US1.1 billion.

“With revenue coming in above our guidance and flat sequentially, we had a solid third quarter that signals our major businesses have stabilised,” Yahoo! chief executive officer Carol Bartz said in a statement.

The better-than-expected performance was chalked up in large part to aggressive cost-cutting measures implemented by Bartz since being named in January to replace Yahoo! co-founder Jerry Yang as chief executive.

“In the third quarter we saw strength in key areas of our business,” Yahoo! chief financial officer Tim Morse said.

“Our efforts to reposition Yahoo! are still in the early stages, but we’re confident that our investments in the business will enable us to capitalise on growth opportunities as the economy recovers,” he said.

Yahoo!’s share price gained 3.31 per cent to $US17.77in after-hours electronic trading in New York.

Source: Yahoo! posts 244 per cent increase in net profit | Business Breaking News | News.com.au

Ten FTSE ST All-Share Industry Indices:

FTSE ST Oil and Gas Sector Index
FTSE ST Basic Materials Sector Index
FTSE ST Industrials Sector Index
FTSE ST Consumer Goods Sector Index
FTSE ST Healthcare Sector Index
FTSE ST Consumer Services Sector Index
FTSE ST Telecommunications Sector Index
FTSE ST Utilities Index
FTSE ST Financials Sector Index
FTSE ST Technology Sector index

FTSE ST Real Estate

Japans currency has been the *in thing* in the carry trade for years but that’s changed now thanks to Uncle Ben’s massive printing leaving the USD in the weakest position on the face of the earth.  I’m not saying it it was done unnecessarily; that’s an argument for another day but it is what it is so we must adjust our mindsets accordingly when it comes to investments.  To that end, Ashraf Laidi has been pointing out the strength in the Japanese Yen over the USD and the fact that their market [Nikkkei] began a series of lower lows in September; ahead of the Dow or S&P.  Today we examine just how much ground the Nikkei has lost; retracing almost 50% of this years rally and Ashraf’s opinion that we are on tract to follow in its footsteps.  If you’ve been monitoring this meager blog at all, you know I’ve been prettymuch short for the last three weeks – and very profitably so. 

Instead of looking at areas of support to *buy the dip*, I’ve adjusted my mindset to look for areas of upper resistance where I’m shorting stock.  Once you view the Nikkei and checkout the S&P, you may want to adjust your mindset as well and short any pops here rather than buying the dips.

Here is a good blog article from The Telegraph.

“Watch out. This may be just the beginning. In the scale of things, the debt problems of Dubai are little more than a flea bite. Dubai’s sovereign debts total “just” $80bn, which counts for nothing against the trillions being raised by advanced economies to plug fiscal deficits.

Small wonder, though, that this minor tremor has sent such shock waves around the wider capital markets. The fear is that threatened default in this tiny desert kingdom is just a harginger of things to come for government debt markets as a whole. According to new estimates by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, the total stock of sovereign debt worldwide will have risen by nearly 50 per cent between 2007 and 2010 to $15.3 trillion. The great bulk of this increase comes not from irrelevant little states like Dubai, but from the big advanced economies – America, Europe, and Japan.

Perversely, they are for the time being beneficiaries of the “flight to safety” that trouble in Dubai has sparked. Government bond yields in the major advanced economies have fallen in response to the crisis in the Gulf. If experience of the banking crisis, when investors removed their money from one bank only to find that the one they had put it into looked just as dodgy, is anything to go by, this effect will not last.”

Read the full article here.

Do you have disc golf gear on your Christmas wish list this year?? If you answered yes, then you have to stop by our family friendly disc shop. Disc Golf Pro Store is offering extended holiday hours. We will be open on Friday, Saturday and Sunday starting 11-27-09 thru 12-20-09. Our hours will be 11am-5pm on all 3 days.  We are located in Garland at Jupiter and Kingsley inside Vikon Bazzar. As always you can also call us for a special appointment on Monday thru Thursday. Be sure to find us on Google for special discount holiday coupons. Happy Holiday’s from www.DiscGolfProStore.com

In a world with constricting budgets and increasing crime, approaching your risks utilizing analytics is critical to building your Loss Prevention program.  Providing enhanced measure where they matter the most is possible.

From LP Magazine

Loss prevention analytics tailored to optimize your business performance. CAP Index is now offering loss prevention analytics to help reduce losses.  Applying sophisticated techniques to a broad array of data, CAP Index builds customized risk models that help clients optimize their business performance.  For more information click www.CAPIndex.com/LPM.

Saving for your golden years sure is a pain in the …  No one wants to put money away that you can’t touch for a long time. Every one wants to use their money now, not later.  There’s all kinds of things that we want to buy.  Maybe it’s a new computer, new furniture for the house, a new car, a new boat etc….  The problem is that if you don’t have a wind fall of money comming your way, then what are you going to have when you get old enough to retire?  Social Security? Don’t count on that!  Did you know that 95% of americans live on Social Security a lone.  That is hardly enough money to pay the bills let a lone live a fun and comfortable life style after you retire.  I suggest putting at least 10% of your net pay in some kind of retirement plan right now.  If you are still young, you will be amazed at how fast your account will start to build up.  It also makes you feel good to have money that you can fall back on during emergencies.  Start investing in yourself right now. No one will do it for you. 

Investing in yourself is the best investment!

www.moneytakingsurveys.com

Immer wieder haben wir Ihnen in den letzten Wochen und Monaten einzelne, neue Firmen hauptsächlich aus dem Rohstoffsektor vorgestellt, die wir für aussichtsreich hielten und halten – und die auch größtenteils bereits eine schöne Performance aufweisen. Mit der Zimtu Capital Corp. präsentieren wir Ihnen heute ein Unternehmen, das sich nahtlos in die Reihe unserer erfolgreichen Vorstellungen einreihen sollte – und das es Anlegern erlaubt, sich gleichzeitig an mehreren Rohstofffirmen aus unterschiedlichen Sektoren zu beteiligen.

Und zwar zu einem frühen Zeitpunkt, der sonst in der Regel professionellen bzw. institutionellen Anlegern vorbehalten ist! Denn bei der Zimtu Capital (WKN A0RDR9) handelt es sich um eine auf den Rohstoffsektor spezialisierte Beteiligungsgesellschaft der etwas anderen Art.

Denn die Zimtu Capital beteiligt sich nur in Ausnahmefällen an bereits bestehenden Unternehmen, hängt sich nicht an bereits vorhandene Investmentchancen an. Stattdessen „bauen“ sich die Experten ihr Investmentvehikel in aller Regel selbst! Das beginnt in der Regel mit der Auswahl des Managements durch Zimtu. Durch die exzellenten Beziehungen in der Rohstoffbranche kann Zimtu sich dabei sicher sein, ein Management einzusetzen, dem man Vertrauen kann. Im Endeffekt ist die Rohstoffbranche doch sehr überschaubar. Fast immer kennt man die handelnden Personen, zumindest über ein paar Ecken und kann sich im Vorfeld gut informieren.

Im nächsten Schritt nutzt Zimtu seine interne Expertise und Erfahrung, aber auch ein umfassendes externes Expertennetz, um sich ein aussichtsreiches und Erfolg versprechendes Rohstoffprojekt zu sichern – und dieses nach einer harten Prüfung von geologischen, rechtlichen und finanziellen Fragen günstig zu erwerben.

Ist das neue Unternehmen gegründet bzw. Management und Projekte in ein bestehendes Unternehmen eingebracht, wird dieses zum Börsengang vorangebracht – der Zeitraum, in dem beträchtliche Werte entstehen, und in dem Privatanleger in der Regel nicht involviert sein können. Für die erbrachten Dienste lässt sich Zimtu zumeist sowohl in Cash als auch in Aktien entlohnen –, die man auf Grund des frühen Zeitpunkts der Beteiligung zu sehr günstigen Konditionen erhält. Ein beeindruckendes Beispiel ist der Kaliexplorer Western Potash (WKN A0QZLM).

In diesem Fall hatte ein Prospektor festgestellt, dass eine Explorationslizenz für Kalisalz in Manitoba verfügbar war, obwohl das Gelände direkt an die Projekte der Branchenriesen BHP Billiton und Agrium angrenzt. Die ersten 300.000 Dollar zur Sicherung des Projekts flossen von Zimtu quasi über Nacht. Das war der Startschuss für Western Potash, die einschließlich Börsengang mehr als 40 Mio. CAD an Kapital eingesammelt. Das Schöne für Zimtu ist, dass man auf Grund des frühen Einstiegs im Durchschnitt bei nur 0,08 CAD beteiligt ist. So macht es noch nicht einmal etwas aus, dass sich die Aktie im Vergleich zum Börsengang bei 1,10 CAD mehr als halbiert hat. Der Hebel, den Zimtu mit solch einem Investment besitzt ist das Entscheidende.

Seit 2001 hat Zimtu Capital auf diese oder ähnliche Weise mehr als sieben Mineralexplorer gegründet. Grundsätzlich ist man auch bereit, mit diesen Unternehmen einen langen Weg zu teilen. Denn auf Grund des gerade erwähnten Hebels kann man auch schwierigere Zeiten z.B. auf dem Weg zur Produktionsaufnahme überstehen – und immer noch eine schöne Rendite einfahren.

Aber diesen Ansatz verfolgt Zimtu nur mit den besten Rohstoffliegenschaften im firmeneigenen Portfolio. In vielen Fällen betätigt man sich als „Makler“, d.h. man bewertet, exploriert und erwirbt Konzessionen für neue Rohstoffliegenschaften, die man dann an interessierte Unternehmen gegen Bahrzahlungen und Anteile weiter verkauft.

Der Clou dabei: Zimtu investiert für das Staking der Grundstücke nur zwischen 5.000 und 50.0000 kanadische Dollar. Und verkauft diese dann wesentlich teurer weiter. Denn nirgends im Rohstoffgeschäft gibt es eine vergleichbare Wertschöpfung wie dort, wo ein einfaches Stück Land zu einer Rohstoffliegenschaft qualifiziert wird (beispielsweise durch historische Daten) und dann auch noch in eine börsennotierte Gesellschaft eingebracht wird.

Und: Allein durch die Barzahlung beim Verkauf der Liegenschaft macht man bereits einen exzellenten Gewinn. Aber gleichzeitig erhält Zimtu auch Anteile an dem Käufer, die man also „umsonst“ erwirbt! Ein Vorteil dieser Art von Geschäft gegenüber der Unternehmensgründung ist zudem, dass diese sich wesentlich schneller abwickeln lassen und es dem Unternehmen so erlauben, in kürzerer Zeit mehr Deals abzuschließen.

Ein weiterer Punkt, der uns am Gesamtgeschäftsmodell des Unternehmens besonders gefällt, ist, dass Zimtu Capital sehr flexibel auf die jeweils am Markt gefragten Themen reagieren kann. So ist Zimtu seit September dieses Jahres über Ultra Lithium Inc. und Mineral Hill Industries Ltd. auch im Lithium-Sektor dabei, einem der zurzeit heißesten Rohstoffmärkte überhaupt.

Unser Ansicht nach bietet sich mit der Zimtu Capital Corp. eine exzellente Chance, um gleichzeitig in verschiedenen Rohstoffmärkten mitzuspielen und von der Expertise der Experten sowie deren Beteiligung an aussichtsreichen Unternehmen noch vor dem Börsengang teilzuhaben. Zumal hier auch ein hohes Maß an Transparenz gegeben ist, denn der Erfolg von Zimtu ist immer messbar – und zwar am aktuellen Wert des Beteiligungsportfolios der börsennotierten Gesellschaften. Aktionäre wissen also immer, welcher Gegenwert an Beteiligungen dem Börsenwert der Zimtu-Aktie gegenübersteht.

Und auch der Zeitpunkt für einen eventuellen Einstieg bei Zimtu Capital scheint uns aktuell sehr günstig! Denn gerade erst am Donnerstag meldet das Unternehmen eine kleine Kapitalerhöhung über 1,02 Millionen kanadische Dollar. Was darauf hindeuten könnte, dass bei Zimtu in Kürze – vielleicht noch vor Weihnachten? – die nächsten Deals anstehen dürften. Risiko bewusste Anleger sollten unserer Meinung nach deshalb jetzt zugreifen, bevor der Kurs der Aktie weiter ins Laufen kommt.

Disclaimer: Die hier angebotenen Artikel stellen keine Kauf- bzw. Verkaufsempfehlungen dar, weder explizit noch implizit sind sie als Zusicherung etwaiger Kursentwicklungen zu verstehen, jedwege Haftung diesbezüglich wird ausgeschlossen. Dies gilt insbesondere für unvollständige oder falsch wiedergegebene Meldungen, falsche Kursangaben und redaktionelle Versehen. Die Artikel und Berichte dienen ausschließlich der Information der Leser und stellen keine wie immer geartete Handlungsaufforderung dar. Zwischen dem Autor und den Lesern dieser Artikel entsteht keinerlei Vertrags- und/oder Beratungsverhältnis.

Cursul Zilei
Cursul valutar valabil astazi (27 nov. 2009) a fost stabilit de catre BNR la data de 26 nov 2009.
Vezi lista completa a valutelor!

As year-end approaches, make time to review and, if necessary, rebalance your investment portfolio. The past two years have not been good ones for many investors, but there are some smart year-end moves you can make to reduce taxes connected with your investments.

* First, remember that any sales you make within your retirement accounts are free of tax. If you need to trade just to rebalance your portfolio, consider doing it in your IRA or 401(k) plan.

* If you’re selling investments to weed out poor performers, remember that losses can cut your tax bill.  You can use capital losses to offset taxable gains plus up to $3,000 of other income. If you still have losses left over, you can carry them forward to use in future years.

* You can often manage the size of your gain or loss when you decide to sell some, but not all, of a particular stock or mutual fund. To do this, you must have kept good records of the date and the price for each share purchase. By selling the highest cost shares first, you’ll minimize your taxable gain or maximize your loss. You must specify the particular shares you are selling at the time you sell.

* Be aware of the “wash sale” rules that prohibit taking a loss on the sale of an investment if you purchase the same or a substantially identical investment thirty days before or after the sale.  

* If you plan to buy or sell mutual fund shares close to year-end, take the fund’s year-end distribution into account as it may affect share price and your taxes.

Please contact us at 619-294-4286 or e-mail us at sleibold@sdbizadv.com if you would like to discuss year end tax planning connected to your investments.

Visit our website www.sdbizadv.com for more great information on various tax, financial, and business items to help you better manage your finances.

Bet that sounds like an online dating tagline. But that’s not what it means. Nerdy, but true, every night I go though my watchlist. Actually, I only go through my growing list of 75 tickers once a week–usually Sunday, highlighting anything interesting. Then each night for the rest of the week, I only keep an eye on the interesting ones (in addition to what I already own). Tonight I had a peek through and I must say, there isn’t anything too hot on my list. However, I did like ACL–it’s just too pricey for me. So I’ll refrain. (For me at least, that’s easier than holding back on a cute dress I can’t afford.) In any case, I also set a trigger to let me know when MFE gets to 40, as it’s rolling between 40 & 44. How ’bout you? Anything on your hotlist?

Happy Thanksgiving!

Trading Girl

Today is US Thanksgiving.  Happy Thanksgiving to all my US friends! 

And a nod to the markets (that were open) as well.  With much of North America closed for the holiday, I still managed a decent gain today as the Canadian dollar was trading somewhere, and it took a beating.  On the news that Dubai might blow up.  Not as in terrorist blow up;  but as in I-can’t-meet-my-payments blow up.  Who would have thought?  A year or two ago Dubai was the great new happening place – the new jewel of the Middle East, and now its the new Argentina of a decade ago.  That spooked the Asian markets overnight, but really spooked the European markets later on in the day.  The big ones all closed down over 3%.   This sent commodities down, (except for natural gas, go figure), currencies down (against the dollar), and appears to have set up a potentially nasty morning for U.S. Thanksgiving revellers – especially with potentially thin (probably thicker now) trading tomorrow.  It will be worth watching Asia tonight.

I’m covered; still have lots of short ETFs.  To me, equities and oil have have had a decidly soggy tone over the past couple of weeks despite trading near the rally high, and I’ve had the sense that any bad news out of left field could pop this balloon.  This Dubai thing might be it.  Real-estate and unemployment are still major boat anchors, and I don’t think it will take too much more weight (a feather perhaps?) to push this market down again.  This rally has felt surreal all along.  It’s been long, powerful, and persistent, but against a backdrop of such bizarre economic dysfunction.

But, whatever.  We’ll trade what comes.  And speaking of trading …

I sold the HNU because I missed a signal early last week, and this kind of evens everything out.  A bit more cash in the kitty if we go down, but lots of shares left to get profitable fast if we go up.

It’s interesting that my co-Scouter Steve’s best friend Brian, who flew 777’s for Emirates Airlines and was based in Dubai, left and came back to Canada a couple of weeks ago.  His decision may have been fortuitous in retrospect.  (I’m now trying to recruit him into Scouts; from the cockpit to the fire pit, as it were.)

Again, Happy Thanksgiving and a hearty Du-bye bye …

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

Q: Is it wrong to play the lottery?

A: Godliness with contentment is great gain. For we brought nothing into this world, and it is certain we can carry nothing out, and having food and raiment let us be therewith content. But they that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition. For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. But thou, O man of God, flee these things; and follow after righteousness, godliness, faith, love, patience, meekness. (1Ti 6:6-11)

“For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith” The purpose behind playing the lottery is to receive easy money and getting rich quick, in which the bible says some desire so much they have error from the faith. The lottery is designed to string along the masses by giving to a few.  Did you know at any given lottery drawing only 1 in 14-18 million is likely to win, and this is consider too be the low end. Some national statistics say the odds are more in the range of 1 in every 100 + million. Ouch! You have a better chance starting a business then winning the lottery. You have a better chance placing your money in a mutual fund or any simple interest barring account and withdrawing the interest over an X amount of years then you do winning the lottery. Even worst you’re better off given your hard earned money to a bum at a convenient store on a promise to return the favor with interest then you do winning the lottery.

Base on the odds alone, it would be a pure act of greed to play the lottery. No educated investors in the world  would dare take a 1in 18 million dollar investment. Perhaps, this is one of the reason many are poor and the rich get richer. The odds alone prove to be unwise and shameful in the eyes of the righteous, not too mention how the bible teaches us to be good stewards over the things the LORD has given us. But they that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition.

The lottery is a false hope that traps many people to believe their greed will bring them happiness.  However, we brought nothing into this world, and it is certain we can carry nothing out, and having food and raiment let us be therewith content. Don’t waste your earnings on the lottery there are real solid investments out there in which you can really maximize your portfolio.

The Mirror, Vol. 13, No. 640

“Phnom Penh: Cambodian families lose between US$35 and US$40 million because of the global economic crisis, resulting in unemployment for 20% to 30% of the workers in the garment and construction sectors, and in tourism. As it is mainly the poor who are facing the impact, the United Nations released a report offering suggestions that can help reduce those impacts.

“In the statement, the UN said that what Cambodia can do to reduce the impacts of the global economic downturn becomes more an emergency topic, as the basis of fast economic growth in the past in the garment industry and in tourism is suffering from the recession of the global economy. 20% to 30% of the workers in the garment and construction sectors and in the tourism industry lost their jobs since late 2008, making them lose between US$35 and US$40 million to be sent to their homes. Impoverished people, mostly women in the garment sector, suffer from the declining economy.

“From a small village in Kompong Cham, 30% to 40% of the people had left their village to Phnom Penh and Siem Reap to find jobs, but now they gradually return home. After two years in Phnom Penh, Mr. Chun Phon and Rany, his wife, lost their jobs at a construction site. They had earned about US$150 per month and could send about US$100 back home to support their children in the village. Rany said, ‘The money that we can now find is just enough only to survive.’

“Such cases are occurring all over the country, while foreign investment for construction projects is decreasing, buying orders for garment products drop, and the number of tourists is declining also. This downturn is not only a challenge for individuals, but also for the growth of Cambodia to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

“The most serious impact from the economic downturn is happening to poor people and to people living near the poverty line, especially those having debts to repay face more difficulties. Such cases happen mostly in rural areas, from where many vulnerable people migrate to the cities to seek employment. Women are among the most vulnerable people, suffering from the impact of this crisis. After they lose their jobs in garment factories or in the construction sector, because of the lack of other professional skills, most women who continue to live in the city have no choice but to work in the entertainment service industry. The report pointed out that also the children of those women suffer under the burden of the impact of the economic downturn.

“The UN had conducted a study to learn more about the impact of the global economic downturn in Cambodia, as well as to identify different measures to reduce the impact on human development already achieved, and to restart development to alleviate poverty, and to be prepared for the future. This report estimated the impact caused by this crisis at the national level as well as the impact on individual Cambodians. The report mentioned policy choices that can help to minimize the impact, including equal rights to receive incentives through lower taxes, structural reforms to improve the competitiveness of the country in the world, and reforms to develop mixed systems for national social protection, to lessen the impact of the economic downturn in the short term, and to bring sustainable and equitable growth back in the long term.

“The UN Resident Representative for Cambodia, Mr Douglas Broderick, noticed, ‘A social safety network is no longer considered as a luxury, as before, where only rich countries had the ability to maintain such networks. Such networks are also related to the success of not-so developed countries.’ However, he remarked, ‘On average, the expenses for safety networks in developing countries are from 1% to 2% of the GDP, but the resources allocated at present in Cambodia are less than 1%.’

“The global economic downturn creates also opportunities to accelerate reforms to prepare for the future, and to improve the competitiveness of Cambodia in the world. Recent events encourage such reforms. The UN vows to cooperate with the Royal Government of Cambodia to accomplish the country’s development goals. The global economic downturn poses new obstacles and political challenges, but provides also opportunities that cannot be overlooked.

“Phon and Rany are so worried about what to do in the future. Rany said, ‘We do not have rice fields, and now we only have little money… we need it for everyday expenses and for our children.’” Rasmei Kampuchea, Vol.17, #5057, 26.11.2009

Newspapers Appearing on the Newsstand:
Thursday, 26 November 2009

Areyathor, Vol.16, #1420, 26-27.11.2009

• Cambodia and Laos Signed a Border Agreement [during the visit of the Laotian Prime Minister Bouasone Bouphavanh, both sides decided to consider many temporary border markers as final border markers]

Deum Ampil, Vol.3, #346, 26.11.2009

• [Twenty one] Japanese Investors Visit Cambodia [to study the potential of the economy and of investments in Cambodia]
• Corruption of Tens of Thousands of Dollars Disclosed at the Chamkar Doung Royal University of Agriculture [lecturers, civil servants, and staff of this university had came to the headquarter of Deum Ampil to discribe the corruption of the rector, Mr. Chan Nareth, accusing him of being involved in corruption, taking US$300,000 to US$400,000 each year]

Kampuchea Thmey, Vol.8, #2108, 26.11.2009

• [Former Tuol Sleng prison chief] Duch’s Lawyers Suggested to Include Armed Conflict [between Cambodia and Vietnam] into the Case 002 [but not in Duch's case, claiming that Duch was not involved in war crimes]
• [Philippine President] Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Promised to Find Justice for the Victims of the Massacre of 52 People [related to elections]

Khmer Machas Srok, Vol.3, #1820, 26.11.2009

• [Chairperson of the Commission on Economy, Finance, Banking and Audit of the National Assembly] Cheam Yeap: The Government Is Preparing a Law to Collect House and Land Taxes
• The Government Should Reduce Advisers, but Should Keep Contracted Teachers [according to the Sam Rainsy Party and the Cambodian Independent Teachers' Association - the Ministry of Education, Youth, Sports ordered to reduce the number of contracted teachers by 50%, more than 10,000 teachers, in 2009 and 2010]

Koh Santepheap, Vol.42, #6815, 26.11.2009

• The Court Hearing of the Tiger Head Group That Planted a Bomb in Front of the Ministry of Defense Is Delayed until 3 December 2009
• During a Two-Days Crackdown on Hectic Wood Transports, Three Cubic Meters of Wood and an Old Car Were Seized [Kompong Chhnang]

Phnom Penh Post [Khmer Edition], Vol.1, #54, 26.11.2009

• Prosecutors at the Khmer Rouge Tribunal Asked to Jail [former Tuol Sleng prison chief] Duch for 40 Years for His Serious Crimes [where 15,000 people were killed]
• The Kompong Thom Authorities Delay Using Force to Evict Disabled People from the Kraya Commune [to take the land for a Vietnamese company]

Rasmei Kampuchea, Vol.17, #5057, 26.11.2009

• Cambodian Workers Lose Up to US$40 Million Due to the Economic Crisis
• Five Foreigners [three Thais and two Chinese] Are in Debt because of Losing while Gambling in a Casino – They Were Detained in a House in Poipet [three suspects were apprehended and two others escaped]
• The President of the National Assembly, Samdech Heng Samrin, Asked Luxembourg to Expand Investments in Cambodia [the export of Cambodia to Luxembourg amounted to more than US$10 million in 2008 while the import was only about US$7 million]

Sereypheap Thmey, Vol.17, #1820, 26.11.2009

• A Committee Demands the Release of [11] Villagers [arrested in a land dispute in Kraya commune in Kompong Thom; while local authorities plan to arrest 20 more villagers]

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I thought it would be appropriate to share on Thanksgiving what I am thankful for.  I have to admitt that every year in the past I could never pinpoint what I was thankful for.  This year it is very clear to me.  Over the years as I managed businesses and put money away for retirement and lifestyle expenses I thought I actually was doing everything right and that everyone else knew as much as I Knew.  It turns out that I may have known the tricks of money but a very small group of people knew it as well.

What I am talking about is that how money works is a mystery to most.  It turns out that we all fell into the trap of believing the media and all the hype and commercials about the stock market and how it always goes up.  It is true that the market has historically always trended up.  It is very untrue that the market always goes up.  It is all relative to where you are in your life or time to retirement.  If you are 25 and have 30 years to retirement a down market is not so bad, you may recover.  If you are 35 and there is a downturn you still have a chance to recover.  If you are 45 and older and the market did what it did in 2008 there is a good chance you will not recover.  even if you could in 20 years come back to where you were in the beginning of 2008 with your investments the rate of inflation will have eroded your money and in real purchasing power you would not be recovered.

So, getting back to what I am thankful for…  I am thankful for knowing that there are ways to put money away, have it grow competitively, have no risk, have access to it, have control over it,  and never worry about what the market is doing.  I am thankful that my family will have access to their money when and where they need it virtually tax free for ever.