Case in point: On Tuesday, I was going to drive from Fort Myers to Sarasota bright and early to talk to the Orioles’ Jason Esposito (No. 5 on the O’s Top 20). I had to drive north anyway, what with an assignment to cover the Twins against the Tigers in Lakeland on Wednesday, so it was no big deal.

As it turned out, Esposito was coming with the A-level Orioles down to Fort Myers for a Minor League game, so I was able to stick around and wait for him there. The interview we did resulted in this story about the third baseman, including some of the video interview we did.

If that’s not enough Espo for you (I hope it’s OK to call him that — you can ask him on Twitter @JasonEsposito), here’s the interview in it’s entirety, uncut.

Pretty well-spoken, mature young man, don’t you think? Those Vandy products do tend to come out with a pretty good head on their shoulders.

The added bonus of being able to stay in Fort Myers is that I got to watch the Twins’ A-level team play (actually, 2 of them, but the game I focused on was the low-A one). Esposito was playing in that game (so was Glynn Davis, No. 8 on that O’s list). But the real fun was that they were playing a Twins team that included Twins’ No. 1 prospect Miguel Sano, No. 4 Eddie Rosario and No. 9 Adrian Salcedo, not to mention first-round pick Levi Michael. Sano and Rosario should make for a very exciting combination in Beloit this year and Salcedo could start the year in Fort Myers.

Salcedo is typically around 93 mph, maybe touching a 94 and he was right around that area in this start, mostly 91-92 mph, from what I saw. He showed some good ability with his breaking ball and his changeup. The outing overall was up-and-down. Salcedo cruised through the first inning and did a fantastic job keeping the ball down in the zone. In his second inning of work, he was up and he got hit as a result. Things unraveled a bit for him and he had a hard time stopping the bleeding — “damage control” as one Twins executive put it at the game.

Now here’s where the luck of the day kind of ran out. I was so excited to see Sano hit — it was fun watching him take BP (he’s the type people are going to stop what they’re doing to watch hit). The previous day stalwart baseball writer LaVelle E. Neal III was excitedly telling me about seeing Sano triple twice and homer in a Minor League game he had just watched.

I had no such luck. Facing lefty Tim Berry, Sano was lost in both of his at-bats, striking out swinging wildly both times. The second at-bat, he swung and missed badly at soft stuff then whiffed on a fastball. I tell you this not because I think it’s some warning sign, that he’s overrated. Hardly. Maybe just take it as a reminder that he probably has a long way to go. Or, as that Twins exec mentioned above, said, “It will take time.”

The Orioles 2011 most-regular third baseman was Mark Reynolds. While it’s easy to focus on Reynolds’ low batting average and lofty strikeout totals, Reynolds was actually a pretty good offensive player in 2011. He hit 37 home runs, which wouldn’t have been too impressive a decade ago but was fourth in the 2011 American League. He drew 75 walks. So, even though he had a .221 batting average, his walks and power made him a batter 19% better than the average American Leaguer. The real problem was his defense. He joined the Gary Sheffield-Joel Youngblood-Butch Hobson club with a .897 fielding percentage in 114 games at third base, and he demonstrated range about 30% below the league standards. In the 2011-2012 offseason, the Orioles announced that they would move Reynolds to first base.

That was a reasonable decision. The question becomes “Who is the new third baseman?” The first thought was Chris Davis, acquired from Texas in the Koji Uehara deal. Davis had been a third baseman in the Texas organization — and was moved to first base because he was just about as bad defensively as Reynolds. Davis isn’t any great shakes as a hitter, either; he has similar skills to Mark Reynolds but he’s not as good. He doesn’t have Reynolds’ power and he doesn’t walk nearly as much. After Davis’ impressive first season, he hasn’t had a season in which he’s been a league-average hitter.

In the offseason, the Orioles signed Wilson Betemit as a free agent. Betemit has been more of a third baseman than he’s been anything else, but he’s never had a major-league season with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. And, he too hasn’t been a good defensive third baseman, with substandard fielding percentages and range. The Orioles announced that Betemit would serve primarily as their designated hitter, and are conceding that he’s not the answer at third base.

So much for the major-league options. Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook listed five minor-leaguers with rookie eligibility at third base in the Orioles’ organizational depth chart. Two of them, Nicky Delmonico and Jason Esposito, are 2011 draftees who have yet to play professionally. Delmonico was signed out of high school and, even if he’s put on and able to handle the fast track, is still three years away. If the Orioles think he’s ready, he’ll start 2011 at Delmarva; if not, they’ll hold him in extended spring training and have him play in Aberdeen. Esposito, signed as a college junior, is one level ahead of Delmonico, and will start 2012 at either Frederick or Delmarva. He’s two-and-a-half to three years away.

The other three candidates are closer to the big leagues. Ryan Flaherty was selected from the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft, so he must stay on the Orioles’ 25-man roster all season (except for minor-league rehabilitation assignments) or be offered back to the Cubs. Flaherty is another power hitter; he has a career .475 slugging percentage in AA. Although he probably profiles best as a third baseman, the Cubs moved him all around the infield (probably because the Cubs have an incredible number of grade C+ prospects and it’s hard to find playing time for all of them.) Flaherty probably won’t end up in Norfolk; the Orioles will give him the benefit of the doubt and keep him in Baltimore so they won’t have to offer him back to the Cubs.

Brandon Waring is yet another low-average, high-home-run, high-strikeout hitter. In 252 AA games, he’s hit 44 home runs and struck out 315 times, with a .234 batting average. It’s hard to interpret his available defensive statistics, but BA’s summary states that Waring has improved his defense to slightly-below-average. Waring has never played at AAA, and in normal circumstances would be set to play at Norfolk this season.

But the circumstances aren’t normal, partly because the fifth name on the Orioles third-base prospect depth chart is Matt Antonelli. Antonelli was the Padres’ first-round draft pick in 2006 and reached the majors in 2008. He was drafted as an offense-first second baseman, and was on track until 2008, when his bat died. He missed almost all of 2010 (playing in 1 rookie-league game) and signed with the Nationals for 2011. His bat has recovered, but he now projects as a third baseman. The Orioles signed him to a major-league contract for 2012; he’s on the 40-man roster and may end up in Norfolk if he doesn’t stick in Baltimore.

The final candidate was Josh Bell, a former hot prospect who failed his real chance to claim the job in 2010. I’ve written a lot about Bell here and here, and there’s really nothing more to add. He was optioned to Norfolk early in the spring, and therefore he’s probably not in the Orioles’ plans.

American League East:

Fifth Place: Baltimore Orioles

Position Starters-

Catcher: Matt Weiters (25) 139 games, .262/.328/.450 22HR 68RBI –  2011 All-Star, Gold Glove Winner

First Base: Chris Davis (26) 59 games, .266/.305/.402 5HR 19RBI (split between Texas and Baltimore)

Second Base: Brian Roberts (34) 39 games, .221/.273/.331 3HR 19RBI

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy (29) 129 games, .269/.310/.491 30HR 80RBI

Third Base: Mark Reynolds (28) 155 games, .221/.323/.482 37HR 86RBI

Left Field: Nolan Reimold (28) 87 games, .247/.328/.453 13HR 45RBI

Center Field: Adam Jones (26) 151 games, .280/.319/.466 25HR 83RBI

Right Field: Nick Markakis (28) 160 games, .281/.351/.406 15HR 73RBI - 2011 Gold Glove Winner

Designated Hitter: Josh Bell (25) 26 games, .164/.215/.154 0HR 6RBI

On the bright side…

Adam Jones still has star potential

The Orioles line-up really isn’t all that bad. There are some very positive things to take away from here. Adam Jones is every bit the five-tool player people thought he would blossom into, playing a Gold Glove-caliber center while providing gap-t0-gap power in the middle of the line-up. There was a ton of buzz generated this off-season saying that the O’s were actively shopping their prize outfielder, but if this team wants to become competitive again in this division, Jones is the player they need to build around, not trade for extra pieces.

Catcher Matt Weiters is another prime reason O’s fans should be thinking towards the future. In his second full season, Weiters blossomed, doubling his power numbers, winning a Gold Glove and appearing in his first All-Star game. His slugging percentage jumped an impressive 73 points from ’10 to ’11. I’m sure fans would like to see Weiters become a little more patient at the plate, but even a slight improvement in that category would drastically improve his stock. 

Right fielder Nick Markakis has become the rock that is the Orioles line-up. Though 2011 saw Markakis win his first Gold Glove (think defense is a strong theme for the Fighting Showalters? Well, you should!), his raw numbers actually took a dip. His 31 doubles were actually a career-low. A career .295 hitter, if Markakis can approach his career averages in home runs (18), RBI (85) and doubles (41), the 3-4-5 trio of Jones-Markakis-Weiters should prove to be a difficult feat to get through. Not to mention, this team also has 30-homer threats in shortstop J.J. Hardy and third baseman Mark Reynolds.

Long story short, the Orioles are going to hit homers and their success is dependent on their young trio of stars.

Ok, the bad news…

Yes, the Orioles have a powerful line-up. No, that line-up is not patient and probably won’t hit for a high average. Getting on base for the power hitters is the key to any offense’s success. Prime examples of the inability last year for the Orioles to get on base: nobody on the team scored 90+ runs or drove in 90+ RBI. Four players hit 20+ home runs. Two players hit 30+ home runs. None eclipsed 90 RBI. That’s insane.

While the power is real, so are the strikeouts

Mark Reynolds is a prime example of everything flawed with the Orioles offense. Teams don’t just trade away young, controllable, 35+ home run potential talents anymore. Yet, the Arizona Diamondbacks were chomping at the bits to move Reynolds, and the Orioles bit. Reynolds is going to hit home runs, that much is obvious, and spacious Camden Yards wasn’t able to hold Reynolds. He led the team with his 37 homers. But, he just isn’t ever going to hit for average. And it isn’t a positive that his .221 average last season was actually a 23-point jump from ’10 to ’11. Oh, and he strikes out a ton, leading the league four years in a row in the category. Its hard to get excited about his ability to draw a walk when he strikes out at a 2-to-1 ratio.

Same can be said for shortstop J.J. Hardy. Yes, he is going to hit home runs for you (30 of them last year). And yes, he’s going to hit for a higher average than Reynolds. But, he doesn’t do anything extra to add to his game. He won’t draw many walks, he won’t hit a ton of doubles, he’ll play a nice, but unspectacular shortstop. He is a nice piece to have, but he doesn’t jump off the page at you.

What to expect…

This team will mash. In another division, they might even be a top-of-the-division offense. But, they’re stuck in the AL East. On a good day, they’re the fourth best offense in the division. And that’s on a very good day.

This team needs to be realisitc on the offensive end. I fully expect the team to try and move second baseman Brian Roberts to a contender if Roberts proves to be healthy. I think there’s a chance you can see Nolan Reimold’s name pop up in trade rumors throughout the year as well. I’m sure the team would love to find a way to upgrade from Chis Davis at first base, but right now, I don’t see how they would pull that off without being patient with the farm system.

The offense will put up runs, but they’re going to have to score a record amount to compete in this division.

Starting Rotation:

Ace: Jason Hammel, RHP (29) – 27 starts, 7-13, 4.76ERA, 170.1 IP, 94 Ks, 68 walks, 1.43 WHIP (with Colorado Rockies)

#2: Tommy Hunter, RHP (25) – 11 starts, 4-4, 4.68ERA, 84.2 IP, 45 Ks, 15 walks, 1.36 WHIP (split between Texas and Balitmore)

#3: Zach Britton, LHP (24) – 28 starts, 11-11, 4.61ERA, 154.1 IP, 97 Ks, 62 walks, 1.45 WHIP

#4: Jake Arrieta, RHP (26) – 22 starts, 10-8, 5.05ERA, 119.1 IP, 93 Ks, 59 walks, 1.46 WHIP

Battle for #5:

Brian Matusz, LHP (25) – 12 starts, 1-9, 10.69ERA, 49.2 IP, 38 Ks, 24 walks, 2.11 WHIP

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (26) – Pitched last season in Japan

Tsuyoshi Wada, LHP (31) – Pitched last season in Japan

On the bright side…

Britton has improving to do, but there is a good chance he can develop into an ace

Just like their everyday line-up, there is a lot of youth in this Orioles rotation. Lefty Zach Britton’s numbers a little bit inflated from the type of season he had. He was dominate in April, going 4-1 out of the gates in his Major League debut. Really, he was solid every month with the exception of three utterly terrible starts in July. He started three games, managed to throw only six innings, and gave up 16 runs. Yeah, that would do a number to any starter’s season. Otherwise, there is plenty of reason to be excited for the future of this young lefty.

Jake Arrieta has a chance to be a nice power righty in the middle of this rotation as well. Of any Orioles starter last season, his K/9 of 7.0 was the best. Obviously, there are things Arrieta has to work on in order to get his ERA back under control, but he only has two full seasons of Major League experience under his belt. He has plenty of road ahead of him.

Furthermore, the Orioles have been able to stockpile a few good gets via trade and free agency recently. Last year’s trade with the Texas Rangers that sent reliever Koji Uehara brought back big righty Tommy Hunter. Though he battled injuries for the better part of last year, Hunter is exactly what the Orioles need from their starters. He moves from the beyond hitter friendly Ballpark at Arlington to the pitcher’s friend Camden Yard. Lest we forget this is the guy that won 13 games for the 2010 American League champions along with a 3.73ERA. Will he have the run support he had every day in Texas? Not always. But, if he can continue to confound hitters with his heavy sinker, he should do just fine in Baltimore.

Then, there are the two free agent imports from the Far East. Of the two, the one that has garnered the most buzz is Wei-Yin Chen. In an off-season dominated by Yu Darvish, many baseball fans didn’t even know who Chen was. However, Keith Law of ESPN.com ranked him as the 19th best available player in his Top 50 free agents. Chen had a 2.68ERA and struck out 5.1 batters per nine innings. Scouts say his fastball sits between 92-94 MPH. How he preforms in the Majors this season will determine how far the rotation could go. Tsuyoshi Wada, six years older than Chen, is another interesting option, though he’s probably destined for the bullpen in the long run.

No but seriously…

As fun as this is, you don't want Jason Hammel as your ace

Originally, I had wrote that any rotation that is anchored by Jeremy Guthrie should heed warning. Well, the O’s decided to trade Guthrie to the Colorado Rockies for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. I know I put Hammel in the Ace slot for this team, but that isn’t really where he’ll be pitching. Truth is, there is no ace on this Orioles staff. That, more than any other reason, is why Baltimore fans should be nervous. By the end of the season, could it be Zach Britton? Sure. But, right now, this is an Ace-less rotation.

Also, uhm, what the hell happened to Brian Matusz? Not more than three years ago, Matusz was one of the brightest prospects in baseball. He was the fourth overall draft pick in the 2008 Amateur Draft. He finished fifth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2010 after winning 10 games. Then…last year happened. He had a WHIP over 2. He was awful. Every which way of awful. I know I put him into the fifth spot competition, but he has got to be the front-runner going into Spring Training. Too much development has been put into him. He needs to rebound. How? That I don’t know.

Also, do we need to remind you that this team plays in the American League East? None of the starters they currently have are sure-fire aces. Britton has a chance. Arrieta has a shot at being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. Diddo for Hunter. What we get from Chen and Wada are yet to be determined. Whatever they get from Matusz is a bonus. But, this is a weak rotation. It will absolutely hurt them next season.

What to expect…

Guthrie’s already been traded. It’s possible Jason Hammel can get moved again, because he isn’t a long-term solution in Baltimore.

I’m looking forward to watching Zach Britton develop. His development, more than anything else, could be the determining factor as to how quickly this ship can be turned around. Arrieta, too, though to a much lesser extent. Also, the team invested $12+ million over the next three years in Wei-Yin Chen. They’ll want to see some positives returns, and rather quickly.

At the end of the day, if this team wants to be competitive next season, something has to be fixed when it comes to Brian Matusz. He has the ability to be a dominant lefty in the Major Leagues. He’s shown flashes of that raw talent that got him drafted so high. He is absolutely capable of competing with the big boys in the East. He just needs to put it all together, and 2012 may be the pivotal season that determines his future henceforth.

Bench -

IF Robert Andino (27) 139 games, .263/.327/.344 5HR 36RBI (started in replace of injured Brian Roberts)

C Taylor Teagarden (28) 14 games, .235/.278/.294 0HR 2RBI (played with Texas Rangers)

OF Endy Chavez (34) Did Not Play in 2011 (injury)

The Skinny…

Really, it is difficult to predict which players will walk out of Spring Training with 25-man roster jobs. A lot depends on how many pitchers the team wants to carry, how many players can play different positions, etc. One thing is for certain, these three are most likely guaranteed jobs on the Major League roster.

Teagarden is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster not named Weiters. So, he is a virtual lock, unless the O’s decide to unexpectedly make an opening for, say, Ronny Paulino, who they just signed to a Minor League contract. My guess, having had to watch Paulino all of last season with the Mets, they won’t be making that opening.

Andino is probably better known as the Human Red Sox killer. He did alright replacing Brian Roberts last season at second, but he really shouldn’t be exposed to Major League pitching as much as he was last season. He’s a good piece to have on the bench, though. He can short, second, third and even spell someone in left field if need be. That’s exactly what you want from a bench player in the AL, who sees a lot less action than a bat would off the bench in the National League.

As a Mets fan, there will always be a warm spot in my heart for Endy Chavez. There were strong tides in Mets fans camps across the country trying to convince Sandy Alderson to re-sign the defensive wizard. But, alas, he ended up in Baltimore. Depending on how he reacts to a full season removed from knee surgery, he should be a perfect fourth outfielder that can play a Gold Glove outfield in any of the three positions. A strong addition to the Baltimore bench.

Bullpen - 

Closer: Kevin Gregg, RHP (33) – 63 games, 59.2 IP, 4.37ERA, 22 saves, 8.0 K/9, 1.64 WHIP

8th Inning Reliever: Jim Johnson, RHP (28) – 69 games, 91.0 IP, 2.67ERA, 9 saves, 5.7 K/9, 1.11 WHIP

Middle Reliever: Brad Bergesen, RHP (26) – 34 games (12 starts), 101.o IP, 5.70ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.50 WHIP

Middle Reliever: Matt Lindstrom, RHP (32) – 63 games, 54.0 IP, 3.00ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.22 WHIP (with Colorado Rockies)

The Skinny…

Clearly, the Orioles are going to have more relievers than just these three. But, much like the bench, its a little hard to predict at this point in time. With Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei-Yin Chen working off guaranteed Major League contracts, if they lose to Brian Matusz in the rotation race, they’ll both be in the ‘pen. In fact, without an incumbent lefty of note available to the O’s, I’d say its likely that Wada ends up in the ‘pen regardless of how well he pitches in the Spring.

While I personally hate the idea of a closer, you don’t want Kevin Gregg as you most reliable arm at the end of games. He has proved time and time again that he really shouldn’t be trusted with the game on the line, and is a much better option in the 7th and 8th innings. Jim Johnson is a good reliever, but doesn’t really have the strikeout mentality of a late-inning reliever. And, you might want to be a little wary of those 91 innings he threw last season. That is a lot of work for a middle reliever.

Brad Bergesen is an interesting arm himself. It seems as though the Orioles are ready to move on from his days as a starter. He just couldn’t hack it. How he handles a full season out of the bullpen will determine his long-term value to the franchise.

Matt Lindstrom adds depth to this bullpen that lacked before the Jeremy Guthrie trade. He isn’t left-handed, which is really what the Orioles needed. Either way, his presence helps, but doesn’t put this team over the top. Not in any stretch of the imagination.

Down on the Farm – The Top Prospects (courtesy of MLB.com)

#1 – SS Manny Machado (19) – Expected 2012 level = AA

MLB.com listed Machado as the #10 prospect in all of baseball, and the #1 overall shortstop prospect. The third overall selection in the 2010 Amateur Draft, Machado was the top high school product the year he was selected. But, he hasn’t necessarily hit his way out of the Minors just yet, compiling a .257/.335/.421 triple slash. 11 home runs is encouraging, considering he was young for the A+ ball, and his 17 other combined extra base hits hint towards plus power. He ended the 2011 season in A+ ball, and will likely get at least a month in the league again to make sure he’s ready for AA, which is considered to be the toughest jump in the Minors. J.J. Hardy will do fine as the shortstop in Baltimore until Machado is ready.

#2 – RHP Dylan Bundy (19) – Expected 2012 level = Rookie-A Ball

Bundy was the team’s first round pick in 2011, fourth overall. Being a high schooler trying to make the transition to professional baseball, I fully expect Bundy’s innings to be limited and to debut for a short-season team that won’t start playing until the middle of the summer. He’s got a deadly fastball and his development will be interesting to watch. But, to think he’ll make any impact on the big-league club within the next three years is wishful thinking. That is, unless the team includes him as a blue-chip trade piece for Major League-ready talent. And that, I doubt very much. He’s around for the long haul.

#3 - SS Jonathan Schoop (20) – Expected 2012 level = AA

Unfortunately for Schoop, he has Machado ahead of him on the team’s depth chart. However, the team has started trying him at second and third in order to prevent a potential road block courtesy of Machado. With that, he’ll likely start a level behind Machado in AA next season. With Schoop being so young, we’ll let time determine what the Orioles want to do with him.

#4 – 3B Nick Delmonico (19) – Expected 2012 Level – Rookie-A Ball

Another product of the 2011 Orioles draft class, Delmonico grew up around baseball. Being out of high school, like Bundy, probably limits him to a short-season team in his first professional season. It is very rare for a player to go from not appearing in a minor league game straight to a full-season Low-A squad. Him and Bundy will make whatever Rookie level team their on very fun to watch.

#5 – 3B Jason Esposito (21) – Expected 2012 Level – A-

Ok, here is what I’m learning about the Orioles farm system today. Either they had a really strong 2011 Draft, or this farm system was putrid before this year. I don’t know enough about the Orioles system through the years to rightfully answer that question. What I do know is that 2011 second round pick, unlike Bundy and Delmonico, is a product of Vanderbilt. That means he will start a class above them in the South Atlantic League. Again, this will be his minor league debut, so let’s not get too excited or too depressed about the initial results.

#6 – OF Xavier Avery (22) – Expected 2012 Level – AAA

Xavier Avery has been touted as the future lead-off hitter for the Baltimore Orioles. He stole 36 bases in AA. He will need to do a little more hitting than his .259 average, and he’ll get a full year in AAA to prove that he can be every bit the lead-off hitter the O’s hope. With Adam Jones in center and Nick Markakis in right, he seems destined for left field at some point. Right now, let him play the more premium defensive position of center. Just so he gets the experience.

#7 – RHP Parker Bridwell (20) – Expected 2012 Level – A-

In 2011, Bridwell was all hype and no results. He struggled in short-season New York/Penn League and struggled in the South Atlantic League. He is still young and raw. He is finally focusing on only baseball after being a three-sport athlete in high school. He will likely repeat Low-A ball. He’s got plenty of time to develop into a middle-of-the-rotation, sinker/fastball pitcher. Plenty of time to go.

#8 – OF Glynn Davis (20) – Expected 2012 Level – A-

Davis can fly. It’s his best tool. He didn’t hit for any power in his first taste of professional baseball, and he, like many other prospects on this list, will get his first taste of full season ball in Low-A. He needs to start hitting and he needs to prove that he can play center field well in order to become a very strong prospect. Time is on his side, and he has the local-kid-done-right feel to him, being from Baltimore.

#9 – RHP Robert Bundy (22) – Expected 2012 Level – AA

The older brother Dylan, Bundy is absolutely a Major League-caliber pitcher. He dominated High-A last season and got his first taste of AA. While he struggled once he got there, he will be able to repeat the level with plenty of time to develop. Should he own the league, he could skip AAA and make his Major League debut this season. More likely, he won’t see the Majors until 2013.

#10 – RHP Dan Klein (23) – Expected 2012 Level – AAA

Klein is the Orioles’ closer of the future. He should see the Majors at some point this season. However, when is the last time you can remember a team grooming a closer as soon as the minors? It just doesn’t happen that much. How it will go for Klein is yet to be seen.

Give it to me straight, Greg…

Right now, the Orioles just can’t compete in the American League East. Their record would be much better should they play in, say, the Central. But, they don’t. They’re here. And they’ll struggle as they continue to develop their younger talent.

2012 Projections – 67-95

1. Manny Machado (SS)
Machado is one of the best infield prospects in the game and that status comes on the heels of his enormous offensive ceiling. He has the potential to be an elite offensive performer, even if the maturation of his body forces him off shortstop. One scout I spoke with wanted to see more consistent effort for him, but that was the outlier in the information I received this season. Whether Machado remains at shortstop or moves to third base, he should profile as one of the best position player prospects in the game.

2. Dylan Bundy (RHP)
One of the top picks in the 2011 draft, Bundy was at one point thought to be in contention to go number one overall to the Pirates. He has an extreme level of polish for a high school pitcher and though that exists, he does not lack raw stuff. Some see a future ace in the making but I personally wonder where the next big step comes from and think he will be more of a number two starter on a first division club.

3. Nicky Delmonico (3B)
One scout I spoke with in the spring called Delmonico a “stud offensive talent” and a “potential plus hitter with power, average arm, above-average defense and a pro body.” Scouts remain mixed on where he should land defensively but there is no question about his offensive ceiling as a middle of the order hitter. Delmonico may require time to develop but the payoff could be worth the wait.

4. Jon Schoop (INF)
Schoop has the tools to play shortstop as he continues to move up the ladder but the presence of Machado has moved him off the position. He has the athleticism to play second and the instincts and strong arm to play third. Offensively he should be able to perform at either position but after seeing him a lot the last two years I believe he profiles better as an offensive minded everyday second baseman.

5. Robert Bundy (RHP)
The brother of first rounder Dylan Bundy, Robert is no slouch in his own right. I like him more than most scouts I spoke to this summer, envisioning a future number four starter with a slim chance to out-perform that projection. He has low-90s velocity and a quality breaking ball that helps him profile as a groundball machine with average swing-and-miss potential.

6. Parker Bridwell (RHP)
Heading into the 2011 season I was a huge Parker Bridwell fan and I still remain on the bandwagon, believing in the projection he offers. He can run his fastball up to 95 and has a curveball that can make hitters look silly. He lacks the ability to sequence his pitches and command the zone and those two attributes must come along for him to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.

7. Jason Esposito (3B)
Another third baseman drafted in 2011, Esposito was a standout player for Vanderbilt for the last couple of years. His defense earns unanimous plus grades for his hands, reactions, range, and arm strength, while his bat lags behind those lofty scores. While he has strength in his swing, Esposito is frequently not ready to hit early enough and finds himself behind even modest fastballs. If he can make adjustments he could become a solid hitter with plus defense and profile as an everyday player.

8. Dan Klein (RHP)
Klein could be the number two pitcher in this system behind Dylan Bundy if it weren’t for a horrific injury history. Klein’s fastball, curveball and change-up all receive at least above-average grades from scouts and he shows an uncanny ability to throw strikes with all three. While he could be a number three starter with his raw stuff, his injury concerns leaving him profiling better in the eighth inning.

9. Ryan Adams (2B)
There is nothing sexy about Adams’ game but he should be a big league contributor, particularly for a team looking to rebuild like the Orioles. He has enough offense to hold down a job at second base, even though he takes advantage of at-bats against lefties more than he does anything against right-handers. His defense is fringe-average at best and may decline as he continues to mature physically. He’s as close to a finished product as you will see and he should spend considerable time in the big leagues in 2012.

10. Mike Wright (RHP)
Scouts that like Wright believe he could be a legitimate number three starter. When I saw him in college I saw that potential in flashes only but recognize that it exists. At worst he could be a back of the rotation starter that helps a club every fifth day. He offers a power sinker along with a slider and change-up that both earn 55 grades on a regular basis. I like the change-up more than the slider and believe it could be a plus pitch in time.

11. LJ Hoes (OF)
Hoes is an excellent natural hitter that can use the whole field and could profile as a 60 to 70-grade hitter when he settles in at the big league level. He has been moved to the outfield and lacks the ability for anything but left field and the offensive profile leaves a lot to be desire that far down the defensive spectrum. He could be a useful fourth outfielder over the next few years.

12. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)
A plus curveball gives him some swing-and-miss ability at the back of a rotation and he has enough fastball to complete that projection. If his change-up more consistently shows in the average range he will lose the stigma of a future bullpen lefty and profile as a workhorse in the Orioles rotation.

13. Michael Ohlman (C)
I am admittedly higher on Ohlman than most scouts and media analysts. I have regularly witnessed an above-average athlete that has some subtle tools that give him a big league profile; albeit as a backup. Ohlman has good arm strength and handles a game well to along with enough bat speed to drive the ball in limited at-bats. He will never be a star but he could be a valuable bench piece on any team.

14. Xavier Avery (OF)
Avery has plenty of tools including speed, athleticism and natural strength. His swing mechanics are a mess by nearly any observation and his swing-at-everything approach doesn’t help make up for any mechanical deficiencies. He can handle the any of the three outfield positions but his profile is helped most if he develops himself into a plus defender in center field.

15. Gabriel Lino (C)
Lino is lauded for his plus defensive abilities including a quick transfer, excellent footwork and a plus to plus-plus arm. He already receives well and handles the pitching staff with aplomb. His bat has yet to make such strides but he has strength and can put a charge in the ball on occasion. If the bat comes alive as he develops he could be a solid regular behind the plate.

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best 1-2-3 prospect combos in the game but it gets a bit muddled after that with low-ceiling high probability guys and high-ceiling low probability guys. It’s a solid mix for a team that needs to develop from within but most of the top talent is at least a full year or more away from helping the big league club.

Below are my top 16 prospects with 2012 opening day age, position, and comments on each player. Below the top 16 is a small list of additional notable names. Enjoy.

A few more names to watch:  Kyle Simon (RHP), Zachary Davies (RHP), Mike Wright (RHP)

I may catch a little flack for not having Xavier Avery anywhere on here but I simply do not like him as a prospect, at all. He has a horrible swing, horrible approach, and projects as a late-inning pinch runner or defensive outfield replacement. I could be wrong but I do not see more than that out of him.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert. Be sure to follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

“We used to be really focused on the entry-level home buyer; $140,000 to $190,000 was our sweet spot.  Now, $150,000 to $300,000 is our range.” Jason Esposito, sales manager for the Charleston division of Charlotte-based Eastwood Homes.

This is an industry and trend story about $140,000 to $300,000 tract home market. It is nice to see the average buyer expand from the $140,000 to $190,000 range, but I cringe when reading Pulte Group’s Division President Will Culter use of the word “positions” to describe the homes his company is building for humans and their families.  Unlike the American craftsman movement, which sought to ennoble middle class housing, marketing for these homes redefines the word quality as a “cheaper copy of something often seen in historic homes” and the word custom to mean “a choice from limited options.”

I am more hopeful when reading Culter’s reflections on today’s home buyer: “consumers are much more focused on the value of the home they are buying, as opposed to the features we may have offered four years ago. We definitely sell more smaller square footage homes,” says Culter when talking about today’s market.  As it says in the side bar “buyers are focusing on square feet for the money.” The market is finally seeing a shift from how many square feet do you have to how are your square feet being maximized.  Consumers who want to maximize their square feet are consumers who may be ready to entertain the quality conversation.

Our old house in Charleston's Ansonborough Neighborhood

I saw this in our own home search.  Not counting the first floor apartment we rented, our downtown house had 2000 square feet but was only two bedrooms.  There were not a lot of rooms, but each room had a wonderful scale and every inch contributed to the whole.  We looked at some of the larger homes on the market.  They offered a lot of square feet but with “ghost rooms” or rooms which sit dark and empty most of the time, we left feeling overwhelmed rather than comfortable.   By dropping the first floor apartment, we lowered our overall square footage from the house downtown, while a  finished attic/playroom gave us an additional 600 sq feet of living space for our family.  It is nice to have an extra bedroom as well as a large playroom/4^th bedroom, but I cannot imagine needing an extra inch for our daily living.  More rooms means more furniture and more space to heat and clean.  The best thing about compact living is the opportunity to focus on quality over quantity.  With less space to fill, it is my hope these middle class homeowners will be encouraged to choose the right piece over just another piece and less expenditures in home maintenance makes it easier to afford the quality upgrade.

“If you can show it’s good for the environment and something that helps them save money, a number of consumers are willing to pay for that.” Jason Esposito

There was a time when talk of energy consumption was lost on home builders and buyers.  The homebuilder did not care about what happened to their “position” after it was off their books, and buyers were convinced that a bigger home did not mean bigger maintenance cost -if they had enough money to buy the home (even with no money down), they must have enough money to maintain it.  Now, according to Jason Eposito,  sales manager for the Charleston division of Charlotte-based Eastwood Homes consumers are learning to speak the energy wise language: “little things that allow them to save a few dollars on energy use — that’s something people are very focused upon.”

Wouldn’t it be great to teach the marketplace to understand and value craftsmanship in the same way they now understand energy efficiency?  I dream of a time when upgrades include custom or at least semi-custom craftsmanship options which personalize each home and introduce elements built to stand the test of time.

This article makes it clear that valuing quality, craftsmanship, and the handmade goes against the existing market’s values for “position,” but I see the consumer opening a window in this house of cards and it’s an opening the craftsman should not ignore.

Owasso HS (OK) RHP Dylan Bundy (3^rd ranked draft prospect) is an elite prospect who, along with last year’s top pick shortstop Manny Machado, gives Baltimore one of baseball’s top pitcher/position player combinations. Bundy has long shown a devastating plus fastball/plus curveball pairing and outstanding top to bottom command, but the progress made with his above-average (at times) changeup (usable as a show-me pitch at the start of the season) and plus cutter (formerly an average slider) is what really stands out for me. The biggest (only?) questions with the former Oklahoma prep star stem from his lack of size, but, as I’ve mentioned here more times than I can count, I don’t give a hoot about size. This is especially true when a “short” (hey, I’m 5’8”…size is relative, you know?) righthander has none of the issues short righthanders supposedly suffer from: his mechanics are consistent, he throws strikes like a pitching machine, he holds his velocity deep into starts, he has plenty of arm strength, and his injury history is clean. So, basically, he’s not 6’5”. Everything else about him indicates greatness ahead. Unfortunately for Baltimore, there isn’t much in the way of potential greatness to be found after their first pick. That’s not to say there are some solid prospects sprinkled throughout, but rather an admission that Baltimore went for high floors over high ceilings this year.

RHP Dylan Bundy (Owasso HS, Oklahoma): 94-95 sitting velocity, 96-97 peak; good to plus 77-82 CB; CU with average upside at start of spring, may have surpassed that already; 85-87 SL that might have been the cutter; really like the FB/CB combo; smooth mechanics; plus 86-89 cutter; Dylan Covey comp?; extreme strike thrower, great control; now sitting 92-96, 97 peak; holds velocity late; 6-1, 205

Sometimes I like high floor picks. Vanderbilt 3B Jason Esposito (55^th ranked draft prospect) and his potential plus defense is a nice example of a high floor selection working for me. A floor of a defense-first utility player – he’s already shown he can hold his own up the middle in a pinch – isn’t a terrible investment for a team with so many young arms, some who could use the confidence boost a strong infield defense would provide, in the pipeline.

Esposito’s defense is big league ready, and his hit tool, raw power, and speed all grade out as average future tools at the next level. I swear I was ready to mention Matt Dominguez as a potential comp before reading Baseball America beat me to the punch, but it is a good enough comp that I don’t mind repeating it. If my instincts count for anything, allow me to go on record as a believer in Esposito. As impressive a college career as he has had so far, I think he goes on to show more at the next level with the bat. Additionally, while his glove at third may not be Adrian Beltre good, he has the chance to be a top five defensive third baseman in the big leagues in very short order. That glove alone will give him very good value for a Baltimore team stocked with a bunch of interesting young arms.

Sometimes I don’t like high floor picks. East Carolina RHP Mike Wright and Arizona RHP Kyle Simon are both considered relatively safe bets to pitch in the big leagues someday, but I’m not so sure on either. I didn’t profile either before the draft because neither cracked my list of top 125 college pitching prospects. Then, lo and behold, Baltimore takes them both within the first 125 picks of the entire draft. I don’t think that makes my pre-draft ranking wrong, nor do I think it makes Baltimore stupid for taking their guys where they did; just differing opinions, that’s all. I do give credit to Baltimore for identifying the type of pitcher they wanted: Simon and Wright are two very, very similar pitching prospects, as you can see from my previously unpublished pre-draft notes on each below.

There isn’t a plus pitch between the two strapping young righties, but both young men have a lot of guts and are unafraid to pitch inside or challenge hitters when necessary. I prefer Wright’s four-seamer, slider and changeup. Simon gets the edge on his sinker, control, and delivery. Neither guy looks like much more than a potential middle reliever to me. Both Wright and Simon have made good use of their time in pro ball by already advancing to Baltimore’s Low A affiliate.

East Carolina JR RHP Mike Wright (2011): 90-92 FB, touching 93 with lots of sink; good but inconsistent SL; average at best CU; shows CB; delivery a concern; 6-5, 195 pounds; (6.93 K/9 – 2.61 BB/9 – 3.73 FIP – 100 IP)

Arizona JR RHP Kyle Simon (2011): 89-91 FB with plus sink, 92-93 peak; good splitter that works well off fastball; inconsistent SL with some promise; very good control; 6-5, 220 pounds; (6.28 K/9 – 0.77 BB/9 – 3.91 FIP – 129 IP)

Baltimore rounded out their top ten with six prospects I like. Middle Georgia JC LHP Matt Taylor brings good velocity from the left side and enough in the way of secondary offerings to profile as a potential back of the rotation arm. Ahead of him for me is Central Michigan LHP Trent Howard, a prospect who had only the following blurb in my notes: “plus-plus command of four otherwise unremarkable pitches.” Considering my love of lefties with the ability to put the ball wherever they want, I think I may have shortchanged him in my pre-draft rankings.

The two college righties selected in back-to-back rounds that have received the most ink are the 3^rd/4^th round duo of Wright and Simon, but I prefer the 9^th/10^th round coupling of Mississippi State RHP Devin Jones and Virginia RHP Tyler Wilson (219^th ranked draft prospect). I’ve written a good bit about both guys over the past two seasons, so I’ll let past me take it away for a bit:

He [Jones] strikes me as a borderline starting candidate in pro ball at this point. Like many young pitchers, it’ll be the development of an effective changeup that makes or breaks him as a high round prospect or not. I really like his present mix (low-90s four-seam, upper-80s two-seam with great sink, and a mid- to upper-80s slider with plus upside) and he has the frame pro teams like to see in a starter (6’3″, 180). I’m a bit biased in my appreciation for Jones, as I’ve always liked the classically built sinker/slider specialists. I like it even more when these classic sinker/slider guys go all out and embrace who they are, so, if I may, a quick suggestion for Jones: ditch whatever version of the change you are currently working on and go with a splitter instead. 

Mississippi State JR RHP Devin Jones: low-90s FB, peaking at 93; 87-88 two-seamer with great sink; 82-84 SL could be plus pitch; CU is work in progress; breaking stuff hasn’t quite developed as hoped, but still peaks 94-95 with FB; 6-4, 180 pounds

Virginia SR RHP Tyler Wilson: Wilson’s solid three-pitch mix (88-90 fastball, good sinking 80-82 change, average low-80s slider) gives credence to the idea he has value either in the bullpen or as a starter. Fastball plays up in short bursts (94 peak). 6-2, 190

Not much has changed since the time of those pieces: Jones is a better version of the sinker/slider arms taken a few rounds ahead of him, and Wilson’s versatility (stuff is good enough to start, but plays up nicely in relief) continues to make him a favorite.

Farragut HS (TN) 3B Nicky Delmonico (94^th ranked draft prospect) was considered a difficult sign heading into the draft and questions about his signability pushed him down the board. I like his bat a lot more as a catcher than as a third baseman, and something about him rubs me the wrong way (though no real fault of his own…it’s just an instinctual thing, I guess), but there’s some power there.

Delmonico is another player who could realistically sneak into the first round who I’m not quite as high on as others. He’ll get the last laugh on draft day, so I don’t feel too bad breaking him down now. In Delmonico, I don’t see a standout tool. His arm works alright and there is some power upside, but there is no one part of his game that makes you stand up and take notice. In his defense, well, I like his defense. So many had written him off as a catcher, but in my brief looks and the scouting reports I’ve read, I don’t see anything that makes me think he’ll have to move to first anytime soon.

It was pretty considerate for Baltimore to draft both Arizona State OF John Ruettiger (169^th ranked draft prospect) and TCU OF Jason Coats (Round 12 and my 114^th ranked draft prospect) considering the two college outfielders were featured in a “Mystery Player” piece I did in early March. Not much has changed on either guy since then. The signed Ruettiger is a contact oriented leadoff type with a chance to stick in center professionally. The unsigned Coats has more thump and a quicker bat, but limited athleticism will keep him in a corner at the next level. I wrote a good bit on both players, so bear with me here. First, on Ruettiger:

[plus athlete; big hit tool; line drive machine; gap power at best; leadoff man profile; good patience; average to plus speed; good defender; iffy arm, more accurate than powerful; strong experience with wood; love the way he plays within himself; great athlete, great body; 6-2, 175 pounds]

Half Glass Full: Capable center fielder and irritating (to the opposition, naturally) leadoff man with double digit home run pop

Half Glass Empty: Modest power upside fails to manifest professionally; as a result, overall hit tool and plate discipline suffer against professional pitching

And now on Coats:

[plus athlete; very strong; special bat speed; decent to average speed; average arm; plus raw power; corner outfielder with good range; pitch recognition could make or break him; 6-2, 195 pounds]

Half Glass Full: Pitch recognition and overall approach at plate improves to the point his plus power allows him blossom as an above-average everyday corner outfielder

Half Glass Empty: Awesome power goes to waste as 4A slugger due to Jeff Francoeur-level plate discipline

Washington State OF Derek Jones (Round 13) is a similar, if slightly watered down, prospect to Coats. He’s strong (like Coats), a probable left fielder in the pros (like Coats), and has power to spare (like Coats. He also didn’t sign (like Coats!).

Washington State JR OF Derek Jones (2011): very strong, good speed, strong arm, best future tool is power; great athlete; holes in swing; stuck in LF; 6-1, 205 pounds

Illinois C Adam Davis (Round 11) can really catch. He won’t hit enough to warrant consideration for an everyday job, but catchers who can catch quickly become favorites within minor league coaching circles. South Carolina OF Adam Matthews (Round 23) will return to South Carolina next year with the inside track on the starting job in center field left vacant by Jackie Bradley Jr. TCU 2B Jerome Pena (Round 38) has decent pop for a middle infielder, but a lack of contact will be a problem.

Illinois JR C Adam Davis (2011): plus arm; very quick release; above-average defender; line-drive swing; 6-0, 205 pounds

South Carolina JR OF Adam Matthews (2011): plus speed; great athlete; good defender

As a speed guy first and foremost, Matthews’s battles with hamstring injuries all season long were a shame to see. 

Temple JC (TX) RHP Mark Blackmar (Round 16) has the chance for three average or better pitches, so there is some hope that he could make it as a starter in pro ball. I view him more as a fastball/slider relief option, but to each his own. Ten rounds later Baltimore took a chance on Mesquite HS (AZ) RHP Zach Davies (Round 26), much to my delight. Davies has that short righthander who can spot four pitches and knows when to use them thing going for him. The Orioles then went shopping right in their backyard as they nabbed Maryland RHP Sander Beck (Round 33). Beck was number one hundred on my list of 2011 college pitchers and will head back to College Park to improve that ranking in 2012. If he can find a way to make his fastball dance just a little bit more (cut it, sink it, float it, whatever) while also drastically improving his control, then he’s a legit prospect. It also wouldn’t hurt if he maintains the gains made improving his secondary offerings, a spike curve and straight change.

RHP Zach Davies (Mesquite HS, Arizona): 90 FB; CB; SL; CU; good athlete; 6-0, 170

Maryland JR RHP Sander Beck: straight 88-92 FB with good command; improving spike CB that I really like; solid straight CU; SL; control an issue; 6-3, 200 pounds

Wetumpka HS (AL) 3B Brad Roney (Round 18) has a scouting profile that reads a lot like 2011 third round pick BA Vollmuth. I’m not just saying that because he just so happens to be off to Southern Mississippi to replace Vollmuth on the left side of the infield either. Also unsigned is Clovis North HS (CA) SS Chris Mariscal (Round 41). Mariscal has gotten a lot of hype as a potential 2014 first rounder, but the concerns about his power upside are grounded in truth. I realize not every player has to be a power hitter, but the threat of an extra base hit goes a long way in how pitchers approach a given hitter. I’ll hedge my bets and say I think he’ll be a top five round prospect after three years at Fresno State.

Broken record alert: Mariscal has really good defensive tools at short, a plus arm, above-average speed, a solid hit tool, and not a whole lot of power. In other words, he is pretty much exactly what you’d expect out of a non-first round high school shortstop prospect. Sorting out these players is something I do for fun here in this low-stakes couple thousands hits a day website; I can’t imagine how difficult it is to do it with literally millions of dollars of future player value at stake.

Last but not least, Virginia Tech RHP Ronnie Shaban (Round 49) deserves a mention as a solid college infielder drafted with the intention of moving him to the mound. He’ll be back at Virginia Tech for his senior season.

Virginia Tech JR SS Ronnie Shaban: strong arm; good pop; good defensive tools; average runner; 6-1, 195 pounds

Bundy, the 4th overall pick in the draft, reached a deal with five minutes left before the deadline. With his brother Bobby already in the Orioles organization, Bundy was expected to sign and, according to reports, got himself a four million dollar singing bonus.

Not only did the Orioles sign Bundy, Esposito and Delmonico, they inked all of their top 10 picks.

As we have seen for years, the Baltimore farm system is lacking in depth and talent. Director of amateur scouting Joe Jordan realized that and made it a point to take a chance with some of his draft picks. With the financial backing of owner Peter Angelos, he was able to secure the services these picks.

Baltimore signed 22 of it’s 50 picks. So it wasn’t a flawless process. But by getting the top 10 done, the Orioles have let their fans know that they understand some of their concerns with the team and are getting serious about fixing them.

Well, at least one of the concerns.

Now. About that major league roster…

BH

Dylan Bundy signed a Major League contract just minutes before the midnight deadline last night.

The Orioles director of amateur scouting Joe Jordan came through in the clutch last night by signing the Orioles top pick Dylan Bundy to go along with 6th round pick Nick Delmonico and 2nd round pick Jason Esposito. I have to admit that I stayed up past midnight waiting to hear that we had signed Bundy. The last news I heard was around 11 pm when the Orioles had signed Delmonico until just after 12 am when it was announced that Bundy signed. Today’s modern technology placed me on my couch constantly reloading my twitter account and my web pages trying to find some kind of insight to the progress on all the negotiations.

I am still a little confused as to whether Bundy can start playing for a minor league affiliate this year since his Major League contract starts in 2012. I have a feeling that if he were to play this year the Orioles would end up using one of his options and he only has 3-4 until he has to be on the MLB roster or be exposed to waviers. My feeling is that Bundy goes to Florida and works out there until spring training next year and I fully expect Delmonico and Esposito to join either the Delmarva Shorebirds or the Aberdeen Ironbirds for the remainder of the season.

I predict that they will only sign two of these three, with one of the m being Dylan Bundy.  I think the family ties will play in the Orioles favor in their negotiations for Bundy. Expect a late night with regards to any announcements.

The second team to get the full College World Series preview is your Vanderbilt Commodores. The setup up for this is about as simple as can be: first category is for players drafted in 2011, second category is for players eligible for the 2012 draft, and the last category is for, you guessed it, players eligible for the 2013 draft. 

1.18 JR RHP Sonny Gray (Oakland Athletics) | 7th ranked prospect overall

plus FB in mid-90s (92-97) with excellent movement; currently rarely dips below 93-96 with nice sink; 81-85 plus to plus-plus CB; average command that comes and goes; 84-87 SL can be a weapon in time; 82-85 CU slow to emerge, but now a weapon more often than not; plus athlete; 5-11, 180

While everybody was making — and wisely subsequently dismissing — Tim Lincecum comps for UCLA’s Trevor Bauer, the closest thing to the Giants star pitcher in this year’s class has always been Sonny Gray. Of course, Gray isn’t really anything like Lincecum (really, who is?), but the three biggest knocks on Lincecum coming out of Washington — control, size, and an unorthodox delivery — are all also questions that Gray will have to answer to at the next level. The inconsistent control and violence in his delivery are a tad worrisome — his size doesn’t concern me in the least — but when you have raw stuff like Gray’s, you get lots of opportunities to work through your other issues. The realistic floor here is a dominant yet occasionally frustrating to watch shutdown reliever; the ceiling is a first division top of the rotation arm. Gray reminds me a little bit of Braves starter Tommy Hanson, give or take seven inches and forty pounds. I’ve also heard a slightly more size appropriate comp (still forty pounds off, but only about a four inch height difference) of Yovani Gallardo.

1.59 JR LHP Grayson Garvin (Tampa Bay Rays) | 79th ranked prospect overall

started 87-89 FB, 90-91 peak; sitting 89-92 now, 93-95 peak; good FB command; 70-73 CB with upside if thrown harder; now up to 73-75 and above-average pitch; average 77-80 CU with room for improvement, could be plus in time; cutter; SL; good athlete; outstanding control; 6-6, 220

Garvin is a classic pitchability lefty (love his FB command and overall control) who has just so happened to grow into above-average velocity from the left side. He doesn’t have a pitch that is a consistent out pitch, but both his curve and change flash above-average enough to give him the upside of a back of the rotation arm.

2.64 JR 3B Jason Esposito (Baltimore Orioles) | 55th ranked prospect overall

Esposito’s defense is big league ready, and his hit tool, raw power, and speed all grade out as average future tools at the next level. I swear I was ready to mention Matt Dominguez as a potential comp before reading Baseball America beat me to the punch, but it is a good enough comp that I don’t mind repeating it.

If my instincts count for anything, allow me to go on record as a believer in Esposito. As impressive a college career as he has had so far, I think he goes on to show more at the next level with the bat. Additionally, while his glove at third may not be Adrian Beltre good, he has the chance to be a top five defensive third baseman in the big leagues in very short order. That glove alone will give him very good value for a Baltimore team stocked with a bunch of interesting young arms.

3.99 JR RHP Jack Armstrong (Houston Astros) | 49th ranked prospect overall

91-93 FB sitting, 94-97 peak; 80-82 flashes plus CU; 81-82 CB with promise but slow to develop due to injuries; clean mechanics; finally healthy, CB better than ever; 6-7, 230 pounds

Sometimes it really is as simple as throwing away the performance aspect and looking at raw stuff. Armstrong’s track record on the mound doesn’t make him a top 100 pick (or a top 50 prospect on my pre-draft list), but his raw stuff ranks up there with almost anybody’s. Injury concerns could have Houston looking at Armstrong as a future reliever, but I’d love to see the big guy get a chance to start.

3.106 SR 1B Aaron Westlake (Detroit Tigers) | 126th ranked prospect overall

Westlake is going to hit as a professional, I’m sure of that much. Will he hit enough to hold down an everyday job at first? That’s the million dollar question, I suppose. He should be able to hit well enough against righthanded pitchers to at least work his way into a platoon role down the line. It could also be possible that his drafting team gets creativity with him, and tries him at a few different spots (corner OF, maybe a little third, perhaps some time behind the plate) a la Baltimore’s Jake Fox.

There isn’t much to add about Westlake that hasn’t already been said. He has one clear big league tool (power), but is held back by the position he plays. If he hits, he’ll make it. If he doesn’t, he won’t. There is no safety net. In the meantime, sit back and watch Westlake terrorize college pitching one last time in Omaha.

3.117 SO LHP Corey Williams (Minnesota Twins)

Williams as a top ten round pick would have surprised me, so his selection in the third had me perplexed. He has a good arm with the chance to consistently hit the mid-90s with some added strength, but it takes a pretty big leap of faith to use a third rounder on an untested relief prospect. As someone who knows a thing or two about jacked up kneecaps, I’ll definitely be rooting for Williams from now on. The question of whether or not I’ll be rooting him on as a member of the Twins organization or as a student at Vanderbilt remains to be answered. There is no reason to think he wouldn’t sign this year — hard to see him rising above third round money next year — but I only count six certainties on next year’s Vanderbilt pitching staff. The opportunity to come back and perhaps pitch in a more prestigious role could appeal to him.

6.187 SR RHP Taylor Hill (Washington Nationals) | 224th ranked prospect overall

88-91 FB with plus sink, 93-94 peak that I’ve seen with my own two eyes, have heard rumors of him hitting 95; 79-85 plus SL; very good 78-83 sinking CU also called a splitter; mechanics need smoothing out; 6-4, 225 pounds

Read that quick scouting report of Taylor Hill above and then check out where I ranked him on my pre-draft board. Pretty low for a pitcher of this caliber, right? Part of that can be explained by the unusually strong draft class, especially in terms of pitching depth. However, part of it can also be explained by me underrating one heck of a quality prospect.

6.206 SR RHP Mark Lamm (Atlanta Braves)

My notes on Lamm were short and sweet: 90-94 FB; Tommy John survivor. The development of a pair of above-average offspeed pitches — a slider and a change — got him drafted way ahead of where I would have guessed. He’s up there as one of the top senior signs around and could be a quick mover through the system.

10.317 SR C Curt Casali (Detroit Tigers) | 87th ranked prospect overall

Every game Casali plays is one game further removed from 2009 Tommy John surgery. The difference it has made in his defense behind the plate (more than just big league ready – he’d be in the upper half defensively of pro catchers) and his offense at the plate (near-plus raw power and a phenomenal whole field approach) give him the look of a future big leaguer to me. It is a rare senior that warrants draft consideration before round five, but Casali is an exception. Love this guy.

If I was a betting man, I’d be happy to put down a cool five bucks on Curt Casali reaching the big leagues in some capacity before too long. There are some really iffy big league catchers This will be the last time I open up the old SEC catcher debate from earlier in the year, so let me get this last shot in: Casali will have a better professional career than the catcher the Tigers first 2011 draft selection, Arkansas C James McCann.

14.446 JR RHP Navery Moore (Atlanta Braves) | 131st ranked prospect overall

92-96 plus FB, 99 peak; plus 81-84 SL that comes and goes; flashes plus CB; iffy control; Tommy John survivor; very occasional CU; “Intergalactic” is his closer music; has the stuff to start, but teams might not risk it from a health and delivery standpoint; 6-2, 205

Moore’s velocity was down late in the year. That’s a significant problem when your most marketable skill is a big fastball. That said, I still think he’s a good bet to settle in as a big league reliever some day due to his good athleticism and above-average raw stuff. The drop in velocity has to be addressed, however, whether or not it turns to be a mere matter of fatigue (treatment: rest, rest, more rest…and perhaps a tweak or two to his delivery) or a more serious health concern (treatment: shut him down, get him to a top surgeon, and hope he comes out healthy on the other side).

30.928 SO RHP Will Clinard (Minnesota Twins)

Clinard is similar to Corey Williams in that both are redshirt sophomore pitchers drafted by the Minnesota Twins. Clinard’s numbers across the board were more impressive than Williams, but you can’t just beat a high velocity lefthander, I suppose. I’m personally not so sure that I don’t prefer the big (6-4, 225) athletic righthander with the low-90s fastball and potential plus breaking ball. While it seems likely Williams will be offered enough to forgo his last two seasons of college eligibility, Clinard would probably need overslot money to head to the pros. If one of Ziomek, Pecoraro, or Selman get hurt and/or pitch below expectations, Clinard has the stuff to potentially sneak into a weekend starter’s gig.

46.1384 JR OF Joe Loftus (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Not sure how signable Loftus is as a 46th rounder because his blend of arm strength, athleticism, and untapped raw power make him an unusually talented late round pick. If he returns to school, he could easily jump up 25+ rounds with a big senior season.

*****

JR C Drew Fann (2012)

Fann isn’t an early round candidate, but the demand for quality catch-and-throw prospects could get him drafted as a late round senior sign in 2012. The Vanderbilt catching job is up for grabs heading into next year, and it would come as no surprise if Fann took the job with a strong fall. I should point out that I’ve read that Fann is a senior who is exhausted his eligibility on a few Vanderbilt-specific sites, but the official Vandy website has him listed as a redshirt junior. In other words, I don’t know what’s going on with Fann, but the possibility exists that I just spent 117 words on an undrafted player without any more college eligibility .

JR 2B Riley Reynolds (2012) | .356/.407/.403 – 11 BB/19 K – 4/4 SB – 149 AB

I’m really surprised that Reynolds didn’t get drafted based on the strength of his solid freshman and junior seasons. His sophomore season was disappointing, no doubt, but at his best he has shown himself to be an average middle infield bat with a very steady glove at second. If he can play competently on the left side of the diamond — something that remains to be seen — then he’ll profile as a potential 2012 late round utility prospect.

SO SS Sam Lind (2012) | .239/.315/.391 – 3 BB/10 K – 46 AB

Lind has bounced from Missouri to Central Arizona to Vanderbilt. Alright, that’s a lie. He was draft eligible this past year, but didn’t hear his name called on the conference call. A second year in one place should do the middle infield with a strong arm and above-average hit tool some good. He was a personal favorite of mine heading into the year (15th on my preseason college shortstop list), so the pressure will really be on if he wants to get back into my good graces. That is what these guys are playing for, right? My approval? Not the fame, money, girls, and love of the game, but the respect of some nobody on the internet that they’ll never meet? Alright, good, just making sure.

SO LHP Sam Selman (2012)

There are way too many teams and players for me to keep track of everybody and everything quite the way I’d like to. The case of Sam Selman exemplifies the limits of my coverage. In doing research for this very piece, I checked out Selman’s 2011 stats, excited to see what kind of numbers a player with a potential plus fastball (mid-90s peak), plus slider, and promising changeup (per my notes) put up. Selman threw a whopping 6.1 innings last year. Based on the reports I had on him from his high school/early Vanderbilt days, some major injury must have popped up for Selman in 2011 to limit his innings that drastically, I thought. Not so fast, my friend. Selman’s lack of work can be traced to an overcrowded (in the best possible way) Vanderbilt pitching staff and a somewhat disappointingly slow transition to the college game, most notably from a strength standpoint. His string bean 6-3, 170 pound physique has not yet proven to be reliable enough to handle any kind of real innings workload and his control has kept him from being able to effectively utilize his array of promising pitches.

Even with all of those negatives disclosed, I’m still pleased to go on record as a huge Sam Selman fan. The fact I think he has the talent to rocket up from 6.1 innings as a sophomore to the 2012 first round pretty much says it all. Command and conditioning issues aside, there has been no degradation of Selman’s pro quality three-pitch arsenal. If he can lock down a weekend job this fall, watch how high he’ll fly up draft boards next spring.

SO OF Connor Harrell (2012) | .288/.354/.492 – 13 BB/38 K – 7/7 SB – 177 AB

As a legit five-tool player with pro size teetering on the edge of solid defensive center fielder and plus defensive corner outfielder, Harrell has a little Mikie Mahtook in his game. That probably won’t be the only time I use the Mahtook comp this upcoming year — Stanford’s Jake Stewart is another player cut from a similar toolsy free wheeling tweener cloth — and it isn’t the most instructive comparison in the world, but it is both a point of reference for Harrell’s style of play and a way to share my generally positive view of what I think he is capable of doing next spring. I’m a huge fan of Harrell’s plus arm, good range, well above-average raw power, and opportunistic ways on the base paths. If he can turn those ugly plate discipline ratios around, he’ll vault close to the top of the 2012 college outfield class.

SO OF Michael Yastrzemski (2012) | .311/.445/.388 – 44 BB/35 K – 23/26 SB – 206 AB

After already typing Michael Yastrzemski’s last name out incorrectly more than a few times, I can appreciate the first brilliant person who called his more famous grandfather “Yaz.” The younger Yaz is another five-tool talent, though more of a speed/defense/leadoff hitter type than his more powerful outfield wingman Connor Harrell. I swear it isn’t because of the similarly impressive lineage (or at least not only because), but I think of Michael Yastrzemski as a similar ballplayer as Orioles eighth round pick Johnny Ruettiger.

SO SS Anthony Gomez (2012) | .350/.366/.408 – 8 BB/12 K – 7/9 SB – 260 AB

What Gomez lacks in tools, he makes up for in his ability to make a crazy amount of contact. The contact is nice, but the unimpressive tool set keeps him from being much more than a marginal pro prospect. To wit, his defense up the middle isn’t yet good enough to have anybody believing his glove will carry him, and his foot speed is average at best.

SO OF Regan Flaherty (2012)

Never bet against a Flaherty, I always say. Actually I’ve never said that before just now, but it’s still true. The biggest problem facing Flaherty heading into next season will be finding playing time in a crowded Commodores outfield; he could see some time at first or designated hitter to get his bat in the lineup.

FR LHP Keenan Kolinsky (2012): 6-1, 210

Kolinsky, a redshirt freshman, hasn’t done a whole lot yet with Vanderbilt, but could see major innings out of the bullpen in 2012. He throws a solid upper-80s fastball and is a good athlete, so, hey, he’s got that going for him.

*****

FR LHP Kevin Ziomek (2013) | 9.67 K/9 – 2.82 BB/9 – 3.40 FIP – 44.2 IP

I’m not so bold to say Ziomek is going to follow in the footsteps of previous Vanderbilt lefthanders David Price (1st overall) and Mike Minor (7th overall) and land in the draft’s top ten, but the fact that the thought even crossed my mind in the first place tells you plenty about Ziomek’s upside. Ziomek is predominantly a fastball/changeup pitcher, throwing the former between 91-94 MPH and the latter in the low-80s. His much improved curve and slider run into each other a bit too much velocity-wise now that that his curve has gained some heat, but right now the slider is the better pitch and a potential above-average big league offering. The whole package — good fastball, potential plus change, above-average slider, an interesting curve, and good athleticism — is first round quality.

FR RHP TJ Pecoraro (2013) | 9.76 K/9 – 2.72 BB/9 – 3.43 FIP – 39.2 IP

The similarities between the 2011 statistical lines of Pecoraro and Ziomek are striking, no? Pecoraro doesn’t quite have the scouting profile of Ziomek — few do — but is no slouch in the raw ability department. He is armed with a really good low-90s fastball (94 peak) with late life and two potential above-average offspeed pitches (curve and change). Short righthanders like Pecoraro will be my favorite undervalued draft asset until those in pro ball catch on. A torn elbow ligament in May puts a damper on his short-term outlook, but he remains a viable early round candidate for 2013.

FR 1B/OF Conrad Gregor (2013) | .351/.454/.464 – 29 BB/23 K – 151 AB

We knew Gregor had huge raw power. We didn’t know his freshman year approach would be so solid. I might seem overly optimistic on all of the players mentioned in the College World Series prospect series, but you have to remember this is an unusually talented CWS group. Gregor has that plus raw power, a potential plus hit tool, outstanding defense at first and average defense in an outfield corner, a strong throwing arm…in other words, just about everything you’d want in a prospect. Aaron Westlake went in the third round this year; it’ll be interesting to see if Gregor, a better player at this point in his development, can improve on that in two years.

FR OF Tony Kemp (2013) | .328/.431/.406 – 33 BB/29 K – 16/20 SB – 229 AB

If any less heralded player is going to steal the spotlight this weekend in Omaha, it’ll be Kemp. The diminutive freshman is a huge fan favorite due to his plus-plus speed, ridiculous range in center field, and keen awareness of the strike zone. I’m really looking forward to seeing how he progresses over the next two seasons, especially at the plate. I mentioned to a guy int he know that Kemp reminded me a bit of Ronnie Richardson, but was told the better comp was Mike Bourn.

FR SS Joel McKeithan (2013)

Objectivity is important, no doubt, but sometimes you just have to throw caution to the wind and just go with a guy you like. Joel McKeithan is that kind of guy for me. He is currently expected to fill a utility infielder role for the 2012 Vanderbilt squad, but I can easily envision his plus speed and plus defensive tools at short earning him time over Anthony Gomez at short. The little bit I saw of him in high school plus the positive college practice reports equal a potential big league starting shortstop in my mind.

FR RHP Robert Hansen (2013)

Hansen was given a redshirt this year to help space out some of Vanderbilt’s young pitching. He has a good low-90s fastball and an emerging low-80s slider.

FR LHP Steven Rice (2013)

Rice’s curve was one of the better breaking balls in the 2010 high school class. That pitch alone makes him an interesting prospect despite a fastball that only sits between 86-88 MPH.

FR C Spencer Navin (2013)

Navin’s glovework and plus arm should get him into the regular lineup as early as next season, but his bat is far from a sure thing.

FR OF Will Johnson (2013)

Johnson is a great athlete who is still working on the finer points of the game. Minimalist commentary like that is why it will forever be free to read this site…

Okay, so I briefly went over the top 20 guys that I felt were available in this year’s MLB draft, which is also sure to change as the final weeks wind down before the draft. Even with that said, players will go to different teams based on the personal draft strategy incorporated by each team, their personal preference, as well as the needs of the ball club. It’s rare for a player to go straight to the majors however, so most teams won’t be drafting solely out of need and will rather take the best player available. At least we hope that’s what they are doing.

** – Denotes compensation selection for failing to sign 1st round pick in 2010.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

• SHOULD PICK – Anthony Rendon
• WILL PICK – Gerrit Cole

Rendon > Cole, and this might not even be how it plays out, as Pittsburgh has been rumored to be looking hard at Hultzen as well as Dylan Bundy. Update: Apparently Cole is the pick, which bodes well for the Mariners.

2. Seattle Mariners

• SHOULD – Anthony Rendon
• WILL – Anthony Rendon

I think we luck out here and end up getting the better of the two players in Rendon out of Rice. He’s been getting pitched around to a ridiculous extent, with 50 more walks than the next highest player total on his team. If we don’t get Rendon, I’d hope we reach for the uber-talented Dylan Bundy, a high schooler that has reached triple-digits this year. 

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

• SHOULD – Dylan Bundy
• WILL – Danny Hultzen

Dylan Bundy could quite possibly be the #1 player out of this draft when it’s all said and done. I’m more sold on the proximity of Rendon and Cole to the majors, but Bundy is the next most talented prospect, and I certainly like him more than Hultzen.

4. Baltimore Orioles

• SHOULD – Dylan Bundy
• WILL – Dylan Bundy

The easy choice gets made for the Orioles by the teams who draft above them. Dylan Bundy will be the best player on the board, at a tough position to fill, and the only other guy that should give them any real thought would be the less-finished product of Bubba Starling.

5. Kansas City Royals

• SHOULD – Bubba Starling
• WILL – Bubba Starling

Another pick that will be dictated by what the teams above KC do. Bubba is a true 5-tool talent that will only add to the juggernaut that Kansas City is about to become.

6. Washington Nationals

• SHOULD – Trevor Bauer
• WILL – Alex Meyer

In what will surely not be the worst pick of the first round (see Houston) the Nationals pass over other highly touted pitching prospects to select the beast of a man that is Alex Meyer.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks**

• SHOULD – Trevor Bauer
• WILL – Sonny Gray

Everyone likes to opine that Kevin Towers is a baseball genius, that he can build teams better than most. If that’s the case, I’d like to see him nab one of the undersized phenom pitchers that will be available, with my gut leaning towards them going for the more traditional Sonny Gray.

8. Cleveland Indians

• SHOULD – Trevor Bauer
• WILL – Trevor Bauer

They loved Lincecum. They picked Lincecum once upon a time. Bauer is like Lincecum. They love Bauer. They will pick Bauer. 

9. Chicago Cubs

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – George Springer

I think with Starlin Castro so young and already in the majors, the Cubbies will go for the outfield splash and select one of the better athletes in the draft. Springer has legitimate All-Star potential, but he has too many holes in his swing and I’m just not much of a fan.

10. San Diego Padres**

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – Matt Barnes

I’m a bigger Barnes fan than most, but I see him being overdrafted by some team that should actually be taking a chance on the multi-talented Lindor. Lindor could conceivably go as high as #2 to us, but I see him slipping a bit more because of concerns about his future power. Barnes will be a solid #2 pitcher when he makes it to the big leagues. 

11. Houston Astros

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – They will screw this up.  (John Stilson)

12. Milwaukee Brewers

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor/Jed Bradley
• WILL – Jed Bradley

13. New York Mets

• SHOULD – Francisco Lindor
• WILL – Francisco Lindor

14. Florida Marlins

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Taylor Guerrieri

15. Milwaukee Brewers**

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Mikie Mahtook

16. Los Angeles Dodgers

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Taylor Jungmann

17. Los Angeles Angels

• SHOULD – Archie Bradley
• WILL – Archie Bradley

18. Oakland A’s

• SHOULD – Daniel Norris
• WILL – Daniel Norris

19. Boston Red Sox

• SHOULD – Jackie Bradley Jr.
• WILL – Josh Bell Cory Spangenberg

20. Colorado Rockies

• SHOULD – Jackie Bradley Jr.
• WILL – Blake Swihart

21. Toronto Blue Jays

• Dillon Howard

22. St. Louis Cardinals

•  Javier Baez

23. Washington Nationals

• Joe Ross

24. Tampa Bay Rays

• Jackie Bradley Jr.

25. San Diego Padres

• Andrew Susac

26. Boston Red Sox

• Henry Owens

27. Cincinnati Reds

• Levi Michael

28. Atlanta Braves

• Alex Dickerson

29. San Francisco Giants

• Kolten Wong

30. Minnesota Twins

• Josh Osich

31. Tampa Bay Rays

• Jose Fernandez

32. Tampa Bay Rays

• Brandon Nimmo

33. Texas Rangers

• Matt Purke??

*** 2010: .407/.544/.832 – 68 BB/21 K – 226 AB
*** 2011: .337/.536/.550 – 82 BB/30 K – 202 AB

There are a lot of amazing young arms in this year’s draft class, but Rendon is still the top prospect in 2011. There is not a single legitimate concern about his on-field performance. Despite his lack of size and some nagging injuries that held back his numbers some this year, there is little doubt that his power upside is substantial. His defensive tools are outstanding. The hit tool is well above-average and his approach to hitting is special. The two most popular comps thrown his way are Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria. I like the Zimmerman comp a lot, but I’ll toss another two names out there as well. Rendon’s play reminds me of a mix of a less physical, righthanded version of peak years Eric Chavez and current Boston third baseman Kevin Youkilis, minus the unorthodox swing setup. Can’t blame the Pirates for going with the rare commodity that is a potential ace with the first overall pick, but if I was in charge — and thank goodness for Pittsburgh or every other franchise I’m not — then Rendon would be the pick without thinking twice.

2. Georgia Tech JR 3B Matt Skole

*** 2010: .343/.448/.708 – 45 BB/34 K – 233 AB
*** 2011: .362/.457/.570 – 43 BB/31 K – 221 AB

It took me a while to warm up to Skole, but I’d rather be late to the party than too stubborn to change my mind. The plus power bat should play wherever you put him (first base is a safe fall back option, catcher is the riskier but more appealing choice), though it would obviously be preferable if he can continue to work to turn his surprisingly strong defensive tools (good arm, decent foot speed, quality athleticism) into at least league average caliber third base defense.

3. Vanderbilt JR 3B Jason Esposito

*** 2010: .397/.492/.660 – 37 BB/33 K – 262 AB
*** 2011: .357/.425/.552 – 16 BB/36 K – 230 AB

Esposito’s defense is big league ready, and his hit tool, raw power, and speed all grade out as average future tools at the next level. I swear I was ready to mention Matt Dominguez as a potential comp before reading Baseball America beat me to the punch, but it is a good enough comp that I don’t mind repeating it.

4. Southern Mississippi JR 3B BA Vollmuth

*** 2010: .380/.495/.733 – 44 BB/50 K – 236 AB
*** 2011: .304/.417/.546 – 38 BB/55 K – 207 AB

Some people believe in it, some don’t. Either way, I figured I’d pass along something two different people said to me with respect to BA Vollmuth. Two words were used to describe the Southern Mississippi shortstop: “star quality.” He has the requisite athleticism, arm, and above-average raw power to play third base in the big leagues down the line, but his loopy swing might need a tune-up

5. Arizona JR 3B Andy Burns

*** 2010: .282/.358/.565 – 20 BB/41 K – 177 AB

The only thing I don’t like about Andy Burns is the fact he had to sit out in 2011 after the former Colorado prep star transferred from Kentucky to Arizona. Every thing else is positive including his very good defensive tools (like the two guys sandwiched around him on this list, Burns is a former shortstop), plus arm, above-average speed, quick bat, and good raw power. He also has what could be a great separator if he hopes to crack this draft’s top five rounds: the proven ability to hit with wood. On top of all those legitimate reasons why I like Burns, I also have a strong instinctual feel for him. That’s almost certainly worth nothing to 99.9% of the readers out there, but I know my Mom likes it when I share stuff like that.

6. Miami JR 3B Harold Martinez

*** 2010: .328/.403/.672 – 33 BB/50 K – 241 AB
*** 2011: .328/.416/.424 – 29 BB/38 K – 198 AB

Had a weird moment when I was just about to start writing about Harold Martinez at the same time he came to the plate in the 4th inning against Florida during Regional play. Then I stepped away for a bit only to return to the still unfinished entry on Martinez exactly as he stepped up to bat in the 7th. Now that I see it typed out I realize it probably isn’t all that weird, but after writing about draft prospects almost non-stop over the past week and a half, I may be beginning to lose my mind.

As a prospect, Martinez does more than just time his television appearances well. He typifies what this uninspiring college third base class is all about: heavy duty of the word “but.” His defensive tools are solid and he certainly looks the part of a player capable of manning the hot corner, BUT his inconsistency making the routine play and erratic arm keep him from claiming third base as a sure fire long-term defensive home. He’s already plenty strong with the frame to get even bigger, BUT his above-average raw power fell off big time in 2011, in no small part because his long swing was geared towards the aluminum. He was a highly touted prep player who has played well over three years of competitive ACC ball, BUT he hasn’t dominated the competition in quite the way many had hoped. He’s a solid, potential top five round selection, BUT not a player you can pencil in as a long-term answer at third unless some of questions about his game are answered professionally.

7. Nebraska JR 3B Cody Asche

*** 2010: .335/.393/.565 – 18 BB/45 K – 209 AB
*** 2011: .337/.437/.668 – 36 BB/39 K – 208 AB

“Really like his approach, but have been underwhelmed by his overall package thus far” – that’s what I had in my notes re: Asche coming into the year. I’m happy to say that I’m no longer underwhelmed and now considered myself appropriately whelmed by his performance. I wasn’t alone in worrying that he wouldn’t stick at third coming into the year, but am now ready to go out on a limb and say I think his athleticism and instincts make him underrated at the position. Despite his very powerful throwing arm he’ll never be a good defender at third, but if his plus raw power would look really good if he can at least play at or around average defense as a pro.

8. Clemson JR 3B John Hinson

*** 2010: .370/.433/.635 – 27 BB/40 K – 230 AB
*** 2011: .333/.389/.504 – 22 BB/28 K – 228 AB

A plus hit tool combined with above-average speed and power will get you far professionally, but people smarter than myself have told me some teams question Hinson’s ability to play any one particular spot in the infield with the consistency needed of a regular. Based on my limited looks of him, I can’t say that I necessarily agree with that assessment, but his defensive skillset (good athlete, iffy arm) may make him better suited for second base than third. At either spot, he’s got the bat to make him a potential regular with a couple breaks along the way. He’s got a relatively high floor (easy to see him as a big league utility guy with pop) with the upside of a league average third baseman.

9. Texas State JR 3B Kyle Kubitza

*** 2010: .332/.433/.563 – 38 BB/41 K – 229 AB
*** 2011: .305/.445/.527 – 52 BB/46 K – 220 AB

Kubitza has many of the key attributes you’d want in a third base prospect – good raw power, solid arm strength, and a patient approach at the plate. The biggest question he’ll have to answer is on the defensive side, but I’m on board with the idea that good pro coaching can help him through some of his concentration lapses in the field.

10. TCU SO 3B Jantzen Witte

*** 2010: .415/.455/.592 – 9 BB/17 K – 147 AB
*** 2011: .365/.431/.515 – 28 BB/31 K – 241 AB

I do love a good draft-eligible sophomore, and Witte qualifies as one of the best in 2011. His defensive tools at third base are outstanding, worthy of consideration as top five (with Rendon, Esposito, maybe Burns…) in the college third base class. His swing and approach is geared towards hitting line drives and getting on base, but there’s still enough pop in his bat to keep pitchers honest.

11. Virginia JR 3B Steven Proscia

*** 2010: .325/.377/.548 – 22 BB/41 K – 252 AB
*** 2011: .354/.399/.527 – 17 BB/30 K – 237 AB

Most people love coffee. Every few months I’ll try a little sip, but it just doesn’t work for me. So many people enjoy it every day that I’m smart enough to know that it isn’t “bad” per se, but rather a specific taste that I just don’t enjoy as much as others. Proscia is a little bit like coffee for me. His defense at third is very good, he’ll show you a nice potential power/speed combo most days, and his athleticism is well above-average for the position. He’s a good prospect by any measure. Yet somehow after taking everything I’ve heard about him and having seen him play a few times myself, I remain unmoved by his upside. Solid player, no doubt; he wouldn’t be on this list otherwise. I just see him as much more likely to wind up a potential four-corners utility player than a starting third baseman.

12. Arizona State JR 3B Riccio Torrez

*** 2010: .386/.482/.627 – 20 BB/37 K – 228 AB – 21/25 SB
*** 2011: .309/.371/.466 – 15 BB/23 K – 204 AB

Torrez seems to finally have found a defensive home at third base. A team could draft him as a true third base prospect now and hope his bat grows into the role, or, and I think this is the more likely outcome, a team could draft him with the idea that he could develop into a versatile utility player. His only standout tool is his raw power, but even that is mitigated somewhat by a swing that currently lacks the proper loft needed to consistently drive balls up and out.

13. Coastal Carolina SR 3B Scott Woodward

*** 2010: .343/.512/.486 – 49 BB/48 K – 210 AB – 58/66 SB
*** 2011: .368/.500/.538 – 32 BB/54 K – 182 AB – 30/34 SB

It’s very easy to envision Scott Woodward playing in the big leagues someday. He’s got an outstanding approach to hitting, a discerning batting eye, and a really good idea of his fundamental strengths and weaknesses at the plate. Woodward ably uses his plus-plus speed to leg out infield hits, turn balls driven to the gaps into triples, and steal bases at a great success rate. Home runs will likely never be a big part of his game, but his is a game based more on speed and plate discipline anyway. He could have the type of career many once projected for former Dodgers prospect Joe Thurston. Another comp that I like a lot is Phillies minor leaguer Tyson Gillies, a comparison made more interesting due to the fact both players are hearing impaired, but one not at all dependent on that fact as the basis of the comp. When I first thought of it a few weeks ago the connection didn’t even occur to me, but the two players share enough distinct offensive similarities to make it work.

14. Kent State JR 3B Travis Shaw

*** 2010: .330/.453/.622 – 49 BB/41 K – 230 AB
*** 2011: .311/.408/.570 – 39 BB/36 K – 228 AB

Lacking lateral quickness and agility, Shaw’s future at third base is a major question as he enters pro ball. If he can stay at third base — good pre-pitch positioning and quicker than you’d expect reactions give him his best shot — then his big power, great approach, and strong track record with wood would make him a fast riser on draft boards. Most of the industry leaders are already moving him off of third, however, so perhaps I’m being unrealistic in thinking he could someday grow into an average-ish fielder there. Probably goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: if he is a first baseman at the next level, his value takes a big hit.

15. Texas A&M JR 3B Adam Smith

*** 2010: .263/.357/.495 – 20 BB/53 K – 194 AB
*** 2011: .225/.294/.387 – 12 BB/50 K – 142 AB

At some point, he has to do it on the field, right? Adam Smith is such a force of nature from a tools standpoint that you have to believe someday he’ll put it all together and show why so many have touted his ability for so long. He has the plus arm and plus defensive tools you’d expect from a former pitcher/shortstop, and his pro frame (6-3, 200) generates plenty of raw power on its own. What he doesn’t have is a good idea of the strike zone or a consistent at bat to at bat swing that can help him put said raw power to use. I’d love for my favorite team to take a chance on him after round ten (tools!), but probably couldn’t justify popping him much sooner than that (production…). One thing that would make gambling on Smith the third baseman a little less risky: if he doesn’t work out as a hitter, his plus arm could be put to good use back on the mound.

16. Mercer JR 3B Jacob Tanis

*** 2010: .354/.417/.668 – 21 BB/51 K – 268 AB
*** 2011: .321/.422/.565 – 35 BB/30 K – 237 AB

Tanis is an under the radar prospect who is capable of doing some good things at the next level if given the chance. His defense is good at third, his bat speed is more than adequate, and his athleticism gives him a chance to play a couple different positions in the field going forward.

17. Oklahoma JR 3B Garrett Buechele

*** 2010: .376/.460/.653 – 21 BB/41 K – 242 AB
*** 2011: .293/.354/.423 – 13 BB/31 K – 239 AB

Here’s what I wrote about Buechele last year at this time: “And so begins a stretch of players with starting caliber upside, but high bust potential. Buechele has one of the stronger pure hit tools of this college third base class, and his quickly emerging power make him one to watch. His defense is plenty good enough to stick at third, so the only thing that realistically stands in the way of Buechele succeeding professionally (you know, besides all of the other things that can get in the way for any player drafted) will be high strikeout totals. He’s not as talented as Zack Cox, so don’t take this as a direct comparison, but it seems that Buechele would be best served returning to school to work on honing his pitch recognition skills like the top player on this list managed to do in his sophomore season.”

I’d say most of that holds up today. His defense at third remains fine, but new questions about his power — was the emergence last year real or more of a juiced bat phenomenon? — keep his draft stock from being any higher. Others seem to like him a lot more than I do, for what it’s worth.

18. Texas-Pan American JR 3B Vincent Mejia

*** 2010: .385/.484/.582 – 41 BB/24 K – 208 AB
*** 2011: .337/.455/.479 – 38 BB/36 K – 190 AB

Mejia doesn’t get a lot of nationally recognized prospect love, but I think the guy can play at the next level. He doesn’t have a clear plus tool and may not have the range to play third base, but his approach is sound and his present power is intriguing. I’ve heard from one source that he is a sure fire senior sign candidate in 2012 (i.e. don’t hold your breath waiting for him to get drafted this year). I wonder if a pro team might look to him as a potential catcher, assuming they believe his arm will play behind the plate.

19. Oklahoma State JR 3B Mark Ginther

*** 2010: .311/.364/.547 – 18 BB/38 K – 225 AB
*** 2011: .306/.351/.541 – 16 BB/31 K – 229 AB

I came into the year thinking Ginther was a better player than he has shown, and I still feel that way after another good but not great college season. His athleticism is up there with any college third baseman in the class and his arm strength is an asset defensively, but his hit tool hasn’t shown much progress in his three years with the Cowboys. Ginther certainly looks the part of a potential big league third baseman with three well above-average tools (defense, arm, power) and special athleticism, but it’ll take much more contact and a less loopy swing if he wants to make it as a regular.

20. Tennessee SR 3B Matt Duffy

*** 2010: .304/.385/.444 – 20 BB/36 K – 207 AB
*** 2011: .302/.423/.481 – 29 BB/25 K – 189 AB

Duffy was a deep sleeper top five rounds candidate of mine heading into the 2010 season, so you know I’ve been irrationally high on his talent for a long time now. The Vermont transfer and current Tennesee standout has all of the defensive tools to play a decent shortstop professionally, but profiles better as a potential plus defender at the hot corner. For Duffy, a Jack Hannahan (with more raw power) or Andy LaRoche (with less raw power) type of career is possible.

21. UC Irvine SR 3B Brian Hernandez

*** 2010: .356/.421/.513 – 21 BB/26 K – 236 AB
*** 2011:  .358/.416/.419 – 19 BB/26 K – 229 AB

Last year I wrote: “he’s your typical ‘whole is greater than the sum of his parts’ kind of prospect, with the upside of a big league bench bat if everything breaks right.” I stand by that today (some pop, some speed, some plate discipline), with one additional comment I’ll present straight from my notes: “PLUS fielder.” All caps means you know I’m serious. Hernandez can really pick it at third.

22. Stetson JR 3B Ben Carhart

*** 2011: .349/.395/.500 – 17 BB/17 K – 232 AB

I liked Carhart more on the mound heading into the year, but now think his plus arm, gap power, and improved approach at the plate could play at third.

23. Penn State JR 3B Jordan Steranka

*** 2010: .309/.352/.483 – 10 BB/45 K – 236 AB
*** 2011: .327/.395/.548 – 25 BB/34 K – 217 AB

Steranka gives just about what you’d expect from a player this far down the ranking: a strong arm and some power upside. He also has the advantage of being a steady glove at third, though there are some rumblings that he could be tried behind the plate as a pro.

24. Louisiana Tech JR 3B Matt Threlkeld

*** 2010: .322/.382/.540 – 22 BB/44 K – 239 AB
*** 2011: .287/.383/.478 – 31 BB/46 K – 230 AB

Threlkeld gives just about what you’d expect from a player this far down the ranking: huge raw power and a strong arm. The reason Steranka gets the one spot edge over him is because of Threlkeld’s questionable defensive ability.

25. College of Charleston JR 3B Matt Leeds

*** 2010: .335/.442/.715 – 30 BB/46 K – 241 AB
*** 2011: .353/.454/.681 – 39 BB/60 K – 232 AB

Leeds has big power and a strong track record of showing it, but his average on his best day defense and just good enough arm temper some of the enthusiasm that he’ll play third base regularly as a pro. If his knees check out, he could have a future as a bat-first four corners backup.

26. Southern Mississippi JR 3B Ashley Graeter

*** 2011: .325/.393/.453 – 14 BB/22 K – 117 AB

27. Winthrop JR 3B Chas Crane

*** 2010: .356/.452/.673 – 39 BB/53 K – 208 AB
*** 2011: .280/.415/.338 – 45 BB/46 K – 207 AB

28. Texas A&M JR 3B Matt Juengel

*** 2010: .359/.424/.629 – 13 BB/30 K – 167 AB
*** 2011: .295/.376/.446 – 19 BB/34 K – 224 AB

29. Baylor SO 3B Cal Towey

*** 2010: .305/.434/.505 – 21 BB/31 K – 105 AB
*** 2011: .250/.424/.422 – 29 BB/43 K – 116 AB

30. Oklahoma City SR 3B Kirk Walker

The Southern Bulldog, Sonny Gray figures to go in the Top-10 of this year's draft.

by: Will Stanley

I put my work in early this past winter and gave you my thoughts on the top of the 2011 draft in a nutshell. The main focus of that article was guys I liked more than the rest, specifically Bubba Starling, and then a brief view of the top of the draft.

Bubba Starling has since become a hot name. When noted ESPN draft analyst Keith Law started hyping the kid, all of a sudden he is appearing in blogs and his name is being heard far and wide. The other guys who have made a meteoric rise from where they were before are Francisco Lindor, a high school shortstop in Florida, and Dylan Bundy, a beast of a pitcher out of the Midwest.

From where we were before the season started, Rendon has slipped a bit and Cole likewise has narrowed the gap between the two. This potentially bodes well, as I still want Rendon over Cole, the caveat being that both are healthy for the forseeable future. There lies the problem however, as Rendon has been bothered by injuries consistently enough all year that people are worried about him being “injury prone,” thus explaining his slippage in others’ eyes.

1. Anthony Rendon (3B) - He’s still something like Evan Longoria Lite at worst, and that my friends is more than we currently have at the hot corner. If Rendon slips to #2, then yippee. If he doesn’t, then yippee, because it’ll mean we are going for the next guy on the list who is just as deserving of the #1 overall pick.

2. Gerrit Cole (RHP) – People think he’s makin’ moves, and though it may seem so, it’s hard to pass Rendon in such a small amount of time. I could honestly care less, because at this point it’s a lock that we get an awesome player, be it a pitcher or a third-baseman. Felix-Pineda-Cole does look amazing though.

3. Bubba Starling (CF) – I love me some Bubba, something that I hope to never repeat again, especially in prison. Regardless, Bubba is probably not moving from this spot unless one of the two guys above him gets seriously injured. Starling is the ultimate risk-reward pick in this draft, as he’s probably the best athlete, has 5-tool potential, and has an awesome name that fans would love. In the actual draft he may drop some, but I project him as the third best player when it’s all said and done.

4. Sonny Gray (RHP) – A bulldog to the end, Sonny Gray is a pitcher that anyone could take pride in having on their team. A true competitor, he never lets his stature get the best of him, and I’m sure he will make the team that drafts him come June very lucky indeed. He uses a fastball-curveball mix, and will advance fairly quickly through the minor leagues.

5. Dylan Bundy (RHP) – No relation to Ted, but he might soon be known as New Hoss Radbourn. Another one of those country-strong white boys from the midwest, Bundy has a legitimate three-pitch repertoire that makes the highschoolers heads spin. He’s got the major helium as of late, and could go as high as #3.

6. Francisco Lindor (SS) – This is the guy that’s been rocketing up the draft boards. With no real SS prospects in the minors, and a dearth of them in the upper rounds of this year’s draft, Lindor has risen above the rest.

7. Trevor Bauer (RHP) – The new-Lincecum, he also has bizarre mechanics (doesn’t make them wrong) and throws extremely high pitch counts. You can’t argue with the results though, as he has absolutely baffled hitters this year in the collegiate ranks, with 142 Ks in 91 IP. Dominance. Any teams worried about his arm or mechanics will surely pass him up, probably to their detriment.

8. Matt Barnes (RHP) – Another top collegiate pitcher – see a pattern here? – he plays his ball up at UConn, and he has all the makings of a #2 or #3 starter when he makes it to a big league team.

9. Danny Hultzen (LHP) – Some love him as a top-tier arm capable of being a #1 or #2 starter while others see him ending up in the bullpen. I think he will be a solid if possibly unspectacular pitcher that should go to a team such as Arizona looking for a fast-moving arm that is sure to contribute in some capacity.

10. Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF) – Another favorite of mine from watching the College World Series, Bradley also raised eyebrows with his play early this year. This will seem far too high to some, but I think the guy will be a legitimate bat that can play center field. That is extremely valuable.

11. Taylor Jungmann (RHP) – Another collegiate pitcher, Jungmann has been a workhorse since his freshman year, but inconsistent results have pushed him down draft boards. Even still, he’s 6-6 200 lbs, so he can easily reattain that workhorse label as a starter in the Majors.

12. Jed Bradley (LHP) – For what seems like the 26th time, we have a pitcher from the collegiate ranks. There’s actually quite a few people that easily have him in the top-10, but I’m a bit more skeptical. Though he’s not easy-top-ten IMO, I still like the guy in the top half of the first round.

13. Archie Bradley (RHP) – A top pitcher in the prep class, he’s another Oklahoman wünderkid. I’m not particularly fond of high school pitchers in the 1st round unless they are the cream of the crop, as Bundy is.

14. Taylor Guerrieri (RHP) - One of the better high school arms around, T-Guerr as he will now be called is going to be picked somewhere in the top-20. He’s not an overpowering ace, but he has solid command and feel for his pitches. Won’t be a particularly fast mover, but he certainly has first-round talent.

15. George Springer (RF) – Touted coming into the season as a possible Top-5 pick, Springer has soured some in the minds of some of the more respected analysts. I didn’t like what I saw to begin with, and though he surely could make a fine big leaguer, I don’t see Top-5 pick written on the man.

16. Daniel Norris (LHP) – Another top prep pitcher, Norris throws from the left side, making him all the more rare and valuable. You might wonder why I have him below Archie then? At 6’2″ 180 on a good day, he’s a bit on the light side, and I’m not a huge fan of slight-framed pitchers. I also refuse to trust anyone from a place called — Science Hill HS.

17. Mikie Mahtook (CF) – I liked this guy ever since I saw him play in the College World Series a couple years ago. At the time, everyone had a massive Tebowner for Jared Mitchell, but I really liked what I saw in Mahtook and I think he can play a legitimate center field and hit enough to make the show.

18. Matt Purke (LHP) – I’m completely fine with his demise, as I never particularly loved the guy, always preferring Cole as the top pitcher. You never want a guy to lose it completely, but I’m just glad that’s he’s dropped down far enough throughout the year for the Mariners to forget about him.

19. Alex Meyer (RHP) – One of the top players in the country coming out of high school, his insistence on experiencing college life at Kentucky made him a difficult sign. His body has grown a bit more than his draft stock, but he is still a hulk of a pitcher (6’9″ 220) that has the ability to get it done on the mound with power. Someone will take him in the top-20, it’s too “good” of a risk.

20. Blake Swihart (C) – I think I’m just biased against catchers in the first round ever since Jeff Clement. He’s the best of the bunch though, so good luck to him.

2. Other notable position “switches”: LSU 3B FR JaCoby Jones played 2B, Tulane JR C Jeremy Schaffer played 3B (a spot where he has some prior experience), and Washington SR 1B Troy Scott played 3B (ditto). Schaffer and Scott are mid-round guys here in 2011, but Jones has first round upside in 2013. I want to sit down and do preliminary rankings for 2012 and 2013 sometime before this June.  In a vacuum, Jones has top ten potential, but I’ll need to see where he stacks up in what looks to be a strong 2013 draft class.

3. The LSU staff has three years to move JaCoby Jones around the infield, and, as mentioned, Schaffer and Scott are mid-round guys at best. That leaves the position switch with the most immediate and significant draft prospect consequence as the move of Utah JR C CJ Cron playing first base all weekend long. The switch was not entirely unexpected – Cron’s defense behind the plate has never been his strong suit, plus he has played 1B for the Utes in the past – but the buzz surrounding it makes it seem less and less likely that Cron will don the tools of ignorance much at all in 2011.

A few completely random interesting hitting lines of the weekend, complete with equally random commentary…

College of Charleston JR “C” Rob Kral (2011): 667/714/778 (6-9, 2B, RBI, 5 R, 4 BB/0 K)

• Kral may not be a catcher professionally, but, man, can he hit. Great patience and great power typically leads to great things…

North Carolina State JR C Pratt Maynard (2011): 538/571/692 (7-13, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 3 R)

Mississippi SR C Miles Hamblin (2011): 444/643/778  (4-9, HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 3 BB/3 K, 3/3 SB)

Oklahoma SO 2B Max White (2012): 467/556/667 (7-15, 3 2B, 6 R, 4 RBI, 3 HBP, 1/1 SB)

• As great as that line looks, White’s defense at second drew the most praise over the weekend. Pretty amazing considering White is a converted outfield learning the position as he goes.

Tennessee JR 2B Khayyan Norfork (2011): 556/667/1.222 (5-9, HR, 3B, 2B, 4 RBI, 3 R, 1/2 SB)

• I ignored all of the positive buzz coming out of Tennessee’s fall/winter practices and, even though it has only been one weekend, I regret it. I did say this: “Khayyan Norfork might just be the player primed to make the biggest rise up draft boards of the players listed.” Really nice blend of speed, pop, and defense…

Florida SO SS Nolan Fontana (2012): 750/786/833 (9-12, 2B, 5 R, 2 HBP, K, 1/1 SB)

Clemson JR SS Brad Miller (2011): 375/643/375 (3-8, 5 R, 2 RBI, 6 BB/0 K, 4/4 SB)

• Didn’t have the power numbers of many players on the list, but easy to love that BB/K ratio.

Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson (2011): 583/667/583 (7-12, 6 RBI, 3 R, 5 BB/1 K, 5/6 SB)

Arizona State JR 3B Riccio Torrez (2011): 462/462/1.231 (6-13, 3 HR, 2B, 7 RBI, 4 R, 2-2 SB)

Oklahoma JR 3B Garrett Buechele (2011): 625/700/1.188 (10-16, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R)

Texas A&M JR 3B Matt Juengel (2011): 455/500/1.364 (5-11, 2 HR, 2 3B, 7 RBI, 5 R)

• More evidence that shows how deep this year’s group of college third basemen is; Torrez was ranked 7th, Buechele was ranked 15th, and Juengel was 23rd.

Texas FR 3B Erich Weiss (2013): 818/824/1.273 (9-11, 2 3B, 2B, 7 RBI, 6 R, 5 BB/0 K, 1/1 SB)

Southern Carolina JR OF Jackie Bradley (2011): 583/615/1.083 (7-12, HR, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 4 R)

UAB JR OF Jamal Austin (2011): 462/462/538 (6-13, 2B, RBI, 2 R, 3/4 SB)

Kent State SR OF Ben Klafczynski (2011): 538/571/538 (7-13, RBI, 2 R)

Stanford FR OF Austin Wilson (2013): 500/500/750 (6-12, HR, 4 RBI, R, 1/1 SB)

• With the first pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, the New York Yankees select…

LSU JR OF Mikie Mahtook (2011): 444/545/1.778 (4-9, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R)

• I tried to limit the list to one player per college, but leaving fellow Tigers JaCoby Jones and Tyler Hanover off pained me greatly. Mahtook’s decision to only hit home runs could really pay off this year…

Honorable Mention! Virginia SR C Kenny Swab (2011): 000/571/000 (0-6, 5 R, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 2/2 SB)

Honorable Mention 2.0! Any JMU player. Five different players slugged over 1.100 over the weekend: Tenaglia, Herbek, Foltz, Knight, and Lowery. I was most impressed with SO OF Johnny Bladel’s 533/720/733 (6/3 BB/K and 5/5 SB) line. He’s my very early super sneaky 2012 first round possibility.

1. 2010 Bowman Draft Chrome Autographed Refractor Grant Green 011/500
2. 2010 Bowman Draft Chrome Autographed Refractor Grant Green 419/500
3. 2010 Topps Pro Debut Gold Aaron Hicks 35/50
4. 2010 Topps USA Autographs Jason Esposito
5. 2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition TOTC Autographs Dustin Ackley 45/75
6. 2010 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Autographs Jameson Taillon 099/699
7. 2010 Bowman Chrome Wrapper Redemption Team USA Autographs Francisco Lindor 81/99
8. 2010 Bowman Chrome Team USA Autographed Refractors Dillon Maples 197/199

Grant Green, Dustin Ackley, Jameson Taillon and Aaron Hicks are guys I’ve been actively buying for a while now. I love the Ackley card as it’s only numbered to 75 and cost me less than $50. Lindor, Maples and Esposito are a few of the 2010 Team USA guys that I’ve been looking to purchase lately. I got the Lindor for below $30 so I was happy with that purchase.

1. Rice JR 3B Anthony Rendon
2. Southern Mississippi JR 3B BA Vollmuth
3. Vanderbilt JR 3B Jason Esposito
4. Georgia Tech JR 3B Matt Skole
5. Miami JR 3B Harold Martinez
6. Arizona JR 3B Andy Burns
7. Arizona State JR 3B Riccio Torrez
8. Wichita State JR 3B Johnny Coy
9. Texas A&M JR 3B Adam Smith
10. Kent State JR 3B Travis Shaw
11. Clemson JR 3B John Hinson
12. Texas State JR 3B Kyle Kubitza
13. Winthrop JR 3B Chas Crane
14. Coastal Carolina SR 3B Scott Woodward
15. Oklahoma JR 3B Garrett Buechele
16. TCU SO 3B Jantzen Witte
17. Texas JR 3B Kevin Lusson
18. Texas-Pan American JR 3B Vincent Mejia
19. San Francisco SR 3B Steven Yarrow
20. Tarleton State SR 3B Chris Casazza
21. Oklahoma State JR 3B Mark Ginther
22. Nebraska JR 3B Cody Asche
23. Texas A&M JR 3B Matt Juengel
24. Virginia JR 3B Steven Proscia
25. Louisiana Tech JR 3B Matt Threlkeld
26. College of Charleston JR 3B Matt Leeds
27. Oklahoma City SR 3B Kirk Walker
28. Baylor SO 3B Cal Towey
29. Liberty JR 3B Tyler Bream
30. East Carolina JR 3B Corey Thompson

via YouTube – Esposito’s walk-off homer in 17th inning.

This video will give you the excitement of Jason Esposito’s thrilling 17th inning home run to lead the Dores to a win over Louisville last evening.

The game lasted over 5 and one half hours, and I regret that I left after the 12th inning.

Vandy came back three times in the game, trailing 4-0, 8-6 and 10-8 before winning the game in the 17th.

The Dores will venture to Starkville, MS this weekend to play a 3-game series versus Mississippi State.

• Vandy received a great pitching performance from Jack Armstrong as well as two solo HR from Jason Esposito
• Auburn salvaged the final game versus the Tide in Tuscaloosa
• Tennessee took 2 out of 3 from Ole Miss in Oxford; a huge surprise in my book
• Arkansas won their game over UK thanks to a 2-out grand slam by Collin Kuhn in the bottom of the 9th-that is the second Sunday loss in the bottom of the 9th by UK in two weeks
• Auburn pitcher Grant Dayton and coach John Pawlowski were ejected after Dayton hit Alabama lead-off man Taylor Dugas in the 8th inning
• South Carolina is tied for the SEC lead with a 7-2 conference record
• Mikie Mahtook hits two HR for LSU in their 15-5 win over Georgia

Let’s take a look at the standings after 3 weekends of play in conference:

Here is a look ahead to the coming weekend:

South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Should be a great series when the SEC leading Gamecocks come to the Hawk to play the Dores

Alabama at Kentucky
UK should be up for the Tide at Lexington

Arkansas at Mississippi State
Arkansas should win the series and may sweep

LSU at Auburn
Auburn will have their hitting shoes on-may be more of a football score than baseball

Florida at Tennessee
Tennessee should be up also after winning their series at Ole Miss

Ole Miss at Georgia
Ole Miss should win this series-if they do not, that is a sign of problems with the Rebels

The video above show Jason Esposito hitting another home run, his second of the season.

Also pitching quality innings for the Dores in the victory were Corey Williams and Will Clinard of East Robertson High School fame.

The Dores will wrap up their trip to LA today when they square off at 10:00 am CST against Oklahoma State at Dodger Stadium (yes, THAT Dodger Stadium).  Sophomore Right-hander Jack Armstrong will take the mound against Thomas Keeling of OK State.  The Cowboys defeated USC on Friday night, but did not play against UCLA on Saturday due to rain.

Vanderbilt returns to play here locally this week with a Tuesday game against Tennessee Tech and weekend games with Kent State, Illinois State and Indiana.  The Indiana game will be a rematch from last spring’s NCAA regional in Louisville and should be a fun one.

To celebrate the return of baseball into our everyday lives, let’s take a stroll around the college baseball landscape and see what we see. What better starting point than the youngest of the young, the players with that wonderful new-ballplayer scent, the college freshmen? After the jump, enjoy a sampling of some of the finest freshmen — non-draft-eligible, although some listed players are actually part of the 2010 draft class — to watch this season…

C – Ben McMahan (Florida)
1B – Chase Davidson (Georgia)
2B – Adam Smith (Texas A&M)
3B – Zack Cox (Arkansas)
SS – Jason Esposito (Vanderbilt)
OF – Zach Cone (Georgia)
OF – Brian Humphries (Pepperdine)
OF – Bryan Haar (San Diego)

McMahon has plenty of power, but will have to compete with four other catchers for playing time with the Gators. Davidson is slated to be the Bulldogs everyday RF, but his long term home could be at first. An eventual position switch to first would do nothing to quiet the Jim Thome comps some scouts have floated out there regarding Davidson’s lefthanded swing, supersized frame, and approach at the plate. Smith is a total cheat on my part – he will start the season out as the Aggies primary shortstop, and, if he ever moves off of short, it will be to third base, not second. 2B are made and not born, however, so we’ll just have to work with what we’ve got. Cox’s profile is that of a watered down version of San Diego’s star sophomore, Victor Sanchez – gifted natural hitter, power that should develop but hasn’t quite yet, currently average with the glove but room for growth. Esposito will join fellow freshman Joe Loftus on the left side of a dynamic Vandy infield.

Cone is part of one heck of a freshman class that Dave Perno put together at Georgia. The aforementinoed Davidson and Cone are both first round position player talents down the line, righthanders Cecil Tanner and Michael Palazzone are in the same potential first rounder boat, and contributions are expected from three freshmen (Levi Hyams, Colby May, and Jonathan Taylor) right out of the shoot. Unlike Cone, who is expected to slowly ease into life as a collegiate athlete, Humphries is a good player right now and a guy expected to help carry the Pepperdine offense in 2009. Haar has a pro body, good defensive instincts, and an advanced approach at the plate.

RHP – Gerrit Cole (UCLA)
RHP – Alex Meyer (Kentucky)
RHP – Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt)

Cole was a first round pick in 2008 and, barring injury, will be a first round pick in 2011. Huge fastball, improving secondary stuff, questionable delivery – that’s Cole. He’s the early favorite for Freshman Pitcher of the Year. Meyer turned down big money from Boston last summer to fulfill a lifelong dream of playing college ball at Kentucky. Sonny Gray is one of my favorite players in his class. It’s hard not to love a plus-plus fastball coming out of an undersized (sub six-foot) frame.

LHP – Brett Mooneyham (Stanford)
LHP – Ross Hales (Texas A&M)
LHP – Nick Maronde (Florida)

Mooneyham shares similar strengths with Alex Meyer (low-90s velocity, above-average breaking ball, average change), but does it all lefthanded. Hales won’t crack the Aggies rotation to start the season, but his long range forecast is a good one. Maronde’s lanky 6-3, 195 pound frame suggests a great deal of projection to come.