Read the debate intro and the arguments from Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer about the NFL potentially insisting players stay out an entire game after a head injury.

The NFL currently has a retirement plan. That retirement plan has been attacked by 25 different federal lawsuits within the past 10 years. The content of those majority of the lawsuits has involved (you guessed it) disability determinations. In other words, a lot of smart people think the NFL does not do a good enough job taking care of its players when their careers are over, and including a mandatory extra one game out of the lineup for a player who suffers a head injury on the field of play is not just good policy. It simply makes sense.

The lawsuit examples indicate that the NFL already does not do enough to protect the long-term health of its players, though it does profit from their health in the near term. The NFL is – because of the way the game is played and the culture that is permitted within the league – obligated to take care of its players because so many long-term health issues result from playing the game hard.

It is hard to question a player like Hines Ward. Ward is a champion – two times over, to be exact – so he knows what it takes to win. He knows the effort and sacrifice required to attain success at the highest level. When he told NBC, “It’s tough… you don’t want to jeopardize your future. It’s a tossup. You either play and jeopardize your future, or you sit out and worry about the big picture.” The players are conflicted, so the NFL must intervene on behalf of a player’s long-term health. If a player makes his own decision to hold himself out of the lineup he is perceived as weak. However, if he plays and suffers a substantial injury because of the existing one he denied, he is permanently weak. The NFL can and should mediate.

From a business investment stand point it is worth a team’s while to lose a player for a single game over the course of the player’s contract when compared against the possibility of losing the player to injury for their entire career.

Whether it is the competitive nature of the player, as Loyal Homer points out, or the general culture that exists within the league, a person playing with a head injury is a risky thing to do. For fans it is easy to view the players as just that – players. They are business assets with a certain job to do. They are not allowed to make errors, and they are not allowed to succumb to injuries that are unseen by the eye. Fans are wrong in this view, and, strangely, agents are correct. A player’s agent must see a player as a person, with long-term plans, family (or families if you’re Travis Henry), other business interests, etc. Fans sometimes forget that players are people, and this concussion rule is a healthy reminder.

A fight from owners and some league insiders on this issue makes no sense. Why? If a team is unable to go one week without a certain player, then the owner, GM, and coaching staff is not doing a good enough job. The roster may lack depth, the coach is not using players well enough, or the owner has hired the wrong people in key positions. The Colts, in Bleacher Fan’s example, should have a better quarterback playing behind Manning. Fighting over greater protection for players who suffer injuries that science has not fully grasped yet makes no sense.

Bleacher Fan made some interesting points. However, the degree of injury – and the level of scientific understanding about a given injury – is extremely important. Bleacher Fan is also right about the difference between being hurt and being injured. However, head injuries need a different classification. The league must evolve to protect.

Bleacher Fan also mentions that a player’s perception of an injury (life-threatening versus non-life-threatening) impacts a team’s culture. I agree. But when the NFL imposes greater protections for injured players – even though the non-doctor teammates are unable to identify the appearance of an injury – it is changing the perception of the injury. Head injuries are not to be taken lightly anymore. By imposing this “extra day off” rule the NFL is forcing the perception of head injuries to change and shifting the league’s culture. That’s a good thing. While this potential rule is not designed to protect all players from all injuries, it is a positive precedent for the long-term health and viability of the NFL and its human employees.

By Monte Poole
Oakland Tribune columnist

THE PLIGHT of the Raiders was discussed in a recent conversation with one of the team’s former stars. Slinging theories is popular among the distinguished alumni, nearly all of whom have one.

But I’d never heard anyone express his so bluntly.

“I hate to say it, because the old man is a legend,” the former player said. “But I think we’re going to be like this as long as he’s around to run things. And I really don’t see him giving that up.”

The conventional thinking is that Al Davis never will sell the Raiders, for they are his life’s passion. That’s the feeling among ex-players, former employees and the broad variety of people who make up the fan base.

Indeed, thousands of fans came together to raise enough cash for a billboard advertisement that went up Tuesday, visible from northbound I-880 above High Street, about a mile south of the Oakland Coliseum. It depicts a Lombardi Trophy — and a plea for the 80-year-old owner and general manager to hire an actual GM.

These fans weeks ago constructed a Web site — messagetoal.com — that, along with record-low attendance, makes clear the widespread disgust with the steady decline of the franchise. Asking Davis to sell, however, sends a message too easily dismissed.

It is entirely coincidental that this billboard went up two days after it was reported, for the second time since January, that Davis is trying to sell a portion of the Raiders. If Fox Sports reporter Jay Glazer is right — and everything I’ve heard indicates he is — at least 10 percent of the franchise is very available. Davis owns by far the largest percentage of the team.

While there are numerous wealthy shoppers gazing at that Silver-and-Black slice of the NFL’s massive pie, nearly all have no desire to invest heavily in the organization as currently being operated.

There is the hope that former 49ers Steve Young and Brent Jones, who have sniffed around in the past, still might consider lending their names to a group.

More intriguingly, one multimillionaire sports figure who does not wish to be identified has several times over the past 18 months expressed an unwavering curiosity. A longtime fan of the team, he is displeased about its decline and, moreover, says he is in contact with one or more billionaires with a DEFINITE interest.

So the desire to buy is there. The money is there. A deal probably could be assembled and presented in a matter of weeks.

The biggest hang-ups, the only hang-ups, are stipulations regarding percentage and control.

The last time Davis sold a portion of the team was in 2007, when he added three minority partners. They are considerably younger than the other partners; they did not, according to the Raiders, receive an option to buy.

They probably wish they had. After the sale was completed, Davis decided to “make it rain” in some of the unlikeliest places, sprinkling gargantuan deals to the likes of Tommy Kelly, Javon Walker, Terdell Sands, DeAngelo Hall and Gibril Wilson — none of whom has proved a sound investment.

Though it’s unlikely another bucket of gold would lead to similarly irresponsible spending, it’s only reasonable that any new investor would demand some influence. Just because the NFL is a cash cow doesn’t mean carelessness is acceptable.

The only way new partners could ensure their participation in the decision-making process is if Davis were to relinquish a measure of the control he has had for more than four decades.

Anybody checking the team’s books would find compelling evidence toward that end. They’d discover Oakland is an NFL-worst 27-80 since losing the Super Bowl after the 2002 season, growing distrust in Davis as a deal-maker and team-builder and, above all, in the language billionaires speak fluently, depreciation of a franchise in a league where depreciation typically does not exist.

After years of rising despite declining performance, the value of the Raiders dropped from an estimated $861 million in 2008 to $797 million in 2009, according to Forbes’ annual report. That figure is the league’s lowest — roughly half that of Dallas and Washington — and others speculate it should be lower.

So moving a piece of this team under the current conditions won’t be as easy as it should be, if it can be done at all.

There is plenty of potential for growth, though, if you bring plenty of money, gain the trust of Al and persuade him to at least share authority. Good luck getting a man with the heart of a gladiator to budge from his favorite seat.

Read the arguments from Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer about if staying out an entire game after a head injury is an excessive by the NFL.

The answers are very, a lot, and completely. All of those questions are important in the NFL, and players must get each answer correct. No exceptions.

Head injuries, however, complicate that cultural mandate. Head injuries are treated the same in NFL locker rooms as any other injury. The league’s treatment of concussions has been well documented, and now the NFL is changing how it deals with them. Sports Illustrated writer Peter King and Fox Sports insider Jay Glazer are both reporting that the NFL – as soon as next week – will announce new guidelines for how severe head injuries and concussions will be treated. If a player shows that he has lost his bearings after a blow to the head, or suffers any memory loss or amnesia, that player will not be allowed back onto the field for the remainder of that game. Fair enough.

However, like most sticky issues in politics and sports, one constituency believes the NFL is going too far, another believes that the NFL has not gone far enough in protecting its players.

In a league where toughness rules, any player who suffers a head injury during a game is not allowed to reenter the game. A growing contingent believes that the NFL is not going far enough, and that a player should be kept out an additional game after receiving a head injury, no exceptions. This currently unofficial, de facto one game “ban” has already been evident in Arizona with Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh with Ben “I like to stop cars with my face” Roethlisberger. On cue, Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward inferred to the media that Big Ben could have played – if he were tougher.

If not for The Sports Debates, it is hard to imagine this issue getting resolved! Fortunately we are here to answer the following: Should the NFL include a mandatory one-game ban for a player who suffers a head injury on the field?

Loyal Homer argues in favor of expanding the removal of a player who receives a head injury from the remainder of the game where the injury occurs to include the following game as well. Bleacher Fan will argue the “ban” is extreme and not something the league should be allowed to control.

Is this potential rule change and extension fair? Does it signal a culture change in the NFL from a predominantly toughness-centered league to something weaker? Would players whose careers seemingly ended too soon due to head injuries – Al Toon, Harry Carson and Wayne Chrebet, for a few examples – have been prolonged with better post-injury care?

While this debate is bigger than just how the NFL treats players with concussions, let’s stay focused on that for this topic.

Cool.  The boys from FOX NFL Sunday are going to be broadcasting a special two-hour pregame show from Afghanistan today (starting an hour earlier than usual).  From FOX News:

During Sunday evening’s postgame show The OT, FOX Sports announced that it would broadcast a two-hour special FOX NFL Sunday on Nov. 8 (11 a.m. ET) from an undisclosed military installation in Afghanistan.

The team of Curt Menefee, Terry Bradshaw, Howie Long, Michael Strahan, Jimmy Johnson and Jay Glazer will do the special just three days before Veterans Day as a tribute to the dedication of America’s service men and women.

‘Our men and women in the military put themselves in harm’s way to protect everything we hold dear, and none more so than those who are stationed in the Middle East,” FOX Sports Chairman David Hill said. “It is our privilege and honor to take FOX NFL Sunday to them in November, right before Veterans Day. Amidst the fun and football, it’s our hope to showcase the dedication of these men and women who have to defend against a lot more than the wildcat..

FOX Sports is doing the special in conjunction with Armed Forces Entertainment, the lead Department of Defense agency for providing entertainment to U.S. military personnel serving overseas.

Good job, guys.  I’m sure the troops will appreciate it.

For those of you looking to increase your football fix, it’s time to get serious about the recent contributions of FOXSports.com to the weekly offerings covering the NFL.

This certainly won’t negate the need to check in on the usual suspects (including, of course, Monday morning’s must-read), but for additional insight into the stories and the personalities of the week, you can do a lot worse than checking in with Fox Sports personalities Jay Glazer and Brian Billick.

Glazer, a key contributor to FOX NFL Sunday and renowned for his top-flight access to the biggest names in the game, is at center stage for the very relaxed The After Party every Monday at 1pm EST.  Based on the recent roll call, it looks to be a comfortable place for just about all of the league to offer up some “inside scoopage.”  No chance of any “vanilla” interviews with Glazer in charge.

And Billick, a former Super Bowl champion head coach with the Baltimore Ravens, has added to his game analyst duties for Fox by leading the weekly series CoachSpeak with Brian Billick every Tuesday.  You can’t really find fault with this deeper look at the strategy of the game with a candid ex-coach and his current coaching guests.  Really good stuff here.

And, on a side note, the entire cast of players for FOX NFL Sunday (Curt Menefee, Terry Bradshaw, Howie Long, Michael Strahan, Jimmy Johnson and Jay Glazer) will be taking the show on the road this Sunday, Nov. 8th.  In fact, the broadcast will actually be a two-hour special from an undisclosed military installation in Afghanistan. 

Set your alarm clocks accordingly.  The broadcast will begin at 11am EST/8am PST.

I am legitimately afraid of the picks that need to be made for Week Eight of the 2009 NFL season; there are so many games between very evenly-matched teams this time around, and this is being reflected by both the expert picks and the simulations. This could be a make-or-break weekend for the season, and I’m keeping myself open to the possibility that this might represent my first losing record of picks for a week.

Unfortunately, since I am beginning work on a novel for National Novel Writing Month this Sunday, my blog posts are going to be very stripped down for the entire month of November. If I have the time, I will continue to break down the picks from my sources, but it might get to the point where I’m just posting my picks and then recapping the results after the games are done. Once November is finished, however, I will return to full writing.

Click ahead for my NFL 2009 Week Eight Picks!

Games on Sunday, November 1st, 2009

Houston Texans (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Texans
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Texans win 50% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Texans win 65.8% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Texans win 31-17
ESPN Pro Picks: 7 for Texans, 1 for Bills
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 3 for Texans, 1 for Bills
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Texans
NFL.com Pro Picks: 2 for Texans, 1 for Bills
Pulse of the Pickers: Texans picked 88% of the time.
My Pick: Houston Texans

Cleveland Browns (1-6) at Chicago Bears (3-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Bears
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Bears win 80% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Bears win 75.5% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Bears win 31-13
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Bears
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 4 for Bears
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Bears
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Bears
Pulse of the Pickers: Bears picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Chicago Bears

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Cowboys
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Cowboys win 82% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Cowboys win 81.7% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Cowboys win 34-24
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Cowboys
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 4 for Cowboys
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Cowboys
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Cowboys
Pulse of the Pickers: Cowboys picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys

St. Louis Rams (0-7) at Detroit Lions (1-5)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Lions
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Rams win 51% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Rams win 57.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Rams win 20-14
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Lions
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 4 for Lions
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 1 for Rams, 5 for Lions
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Rams
Pulse of the Pickers: Lions picked 72% of the time.
My Pick: Detroit Lions

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-0)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Colts
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Colts win 84% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Colts win 70.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Colts win 21-7
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Colts
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 4 for Colts
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Colts
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Colts
Pulse of the Pickers: Colts picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins (2-4) at New York Jets (4-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Jets
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Dolphins win 50% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Jets win 57.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Jets win 31-20
ESPN Pro Picks: 2 for Dolphins, 6 for Jets
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 3 for Dolphins, 1 for Jets
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 2 for Dolphins, 4 for Jets
NFL.com Pro Picks: 1 for Dolphins, 2 for Jets
Pulse of the Pickers: Jets picked 64% of the time.
My Pick: New York Jets

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Ravens
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Ravens win 57% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Broncos win 58.7% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Ravens win 24-20
ESPN Pro Picks: 3 for Broncos, 5 for Ravens
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 2 for Broncos, 2 for Ravens
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Ravens
NFL.com Pro Picks: 2 for Broncos, 1 for Ravens
Pulse of the Pickers: Ravens picked 68% of the time.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Giants
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Eagles win 56% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Eagles win 58.5% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Giants win 41-28
ESPN Pro Picks: 5 for Giants, 3 for Eagles
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 2 for Giants, 2 for Eagles
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 3 for Giants, 3 for Eagles
NFL.com Pro Picks: 2 for Giants, 1 for Eagles
Pulse of the Pickers: Giants picked 56% of the time.
My Pick: New York Giants

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (0-6)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Jaguars
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Jaguars win 51% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Titans win 50.1% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Titans win 30-20
ESPN Pro Picks: 4 for Jaguars, 4 for Titans
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 3 for Jaguars, 1 for Titans
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 4 for Jaguars, 2 for titans
NFL.com Pro Picks: 2 for Jaguars, 1 for Titans
Pulse of the Pickers: Jaguars picked 60% of the time.
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Oakland Raiders (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (3-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Chargers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Chargers win 87% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Chargers win 84.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Chargers win 31-12
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Chargers
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 4 for Chargers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Chargers
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Chargers
Pulse of the Pickers: Chargers picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: San Diego Chargers

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Vikings
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Packers win 51% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Packers win 54.8% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Packers win 25-22 in OT
ESPN Pro Picks: 3 for Vikings, 5 for Packers
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 1 for Vikings, 3 for Packers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 2 for Vikings, 4 for Packers
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Packers
Pulse of the Pickers: Packers picked 72% of the time.
My Pick: Green Bay Packers

Carolina Panthers (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Cardinals
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Cardinals win 74% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Cardinals win 81.7% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Cardinals 38-20
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Cardinals
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 4 for Cardinals
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Cardinals
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Cardinals
Pulse of the Pickers: Cardinals picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Game on Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (6-0)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Saints
Favorite (ESPN Simulations): Saints win 79% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports Simulations): Saints win 81.5% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Saints win 27-24
ESPN Pro Picks: 7 for Saints
ESPN Sunday Countdown Pro Picks: 4 for Saints
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Saints
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Saints
Pulse of the Pickers: Saints picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: New Orleans Saints
Tie-breaker (Each team’s score): Saints 35, Falcons 20

Again, since my time is going to be limited for the next month or so, this is generally what the picks posts will look like until the end of November. It will still give you all a sense of how people feel about the weekend’s games, as well as what my picks are so I can continue to see how I match up against the people who get paid to do all of this.

Join me on Tuesday morning for the weekend’s results!

Through the first six games (the 1:00PM starts) of this past Sunday, I was 6-0 and looking to be in competition for my first-ever perfect week of picks. Unfortunately, the remainder of the day’s games didn’t go nearly as well, reminding me that the life and times of an NFL game picker are always subject to the “Any Given Sunday” maxim; that is, that any team can beat any other team on a particular day. There were some close games and some very surprising results for Week Seven of the NFL season, and in retrospect I was probably lucky to do as well as I did overall.

My final record for Week Seven of the 2009 NFL Season was 9-4 for a winning percentage of .692. Combined with my record from the season so far, this brings me to a season-long record of 71-32 and a winning percentage of .689 based on the first 103 games of the year. Click below for a game-by-game breakdown of Week Seven.

Games on Sunday, October 25th, 2009

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-6)
Pulse of the Pickers: Packers picked 95% of the time.
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
Result: Packers win 31-3
My Record: 1-0
Reaction: Not a surprising result here; perhaps the most surprising stat here is that the Browns couldn’t exploit the Packers’ terrible offensive line to get any sacks on Aaron Rodgers. Bad year in Cleveland; Packers are facing a big challenge next week with their home game against Minnesota; a loss to the Vikings might put them out of the race to win the AFC North. As for the Browns, the best they can do now is play for a high draft pick.

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
Pulse of the Pickers: Chargers picked 76% of the time.
My Pick: San Diego Chargers
Result: Chargers win 37-7
My Record: 2-0
Reaction: Considering the result, it’s a bit surprising that the Chargers were only picked by 76% of my sources. The Chiefs are bad, even with one win on the year. Matt Cassell put up three picks and the Chiefs didn’t score until the third quarter in this very one-sided blowout. Given the comments of Chiefs’ running back Larry Johnson on Twitter after the game, things aren’t getting any better in Kansas City. Chargers are still three games back from Denver, with one head-to-head loss in that mix.

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)
Pulse of the Pickers: Texans picked 81% of the time.
My Pick: Houston Texans
Result: Texans win 24-21
My Record: 3-0
Reaction: A strong start in San Francisco has quickly turned into a 3-3 record and relinquishing the lead in the NFC West. The Texans put up big numbers in the first half but nearly gave it away in the second half when backup quarterback Alex Smith re-took the starting job and nearly led the 49ers to victory. Good show from Smith, but it’ll be interesting to see where San Francisco goes from here; as for the Texans, back-to-back wins for the first time all season has to be looked at as a positive sign. Another solid game from Matt Schaub doesn’t hurt either.

Indianapolis Colts (6-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-7)
Pulse of the Pickers: Colts picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Result: Colts win 42-6
My Record: 4-0
Reaction: Do I have to talk about this game? Another easy win for Peyton Manning here. The Rams are still winless and the Colts still haven’t lost. Good chance for the Rams to get one win on the year against the Lions next week, but aside from that, this game went just as expected.

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
Pulse of the Pickers: Steelers picked 81% of the time.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Result: Steelers win 27-17
My Record: 5-0
Reaction: Big showdown between two tough teams here, but a fumble and an interception from the hands of Brett Favre led to two touchdowns for the Steelers in the fourth quarter; enough to give the Steelers a 10-point win and put Minnesota in the loss column for the first time this year. After a shaky start, Pittsburgh has gotten back into a good rhythm; Minnesota will have to rebound on the road against the Packers next weekend.

New England Patriots (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
Pulse of the Pickers: Patriots picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: New England Patriots
Result: Patriots win 35-7
My Record: 6-0
Reaction: Tom Brady threw three touchdowns and two interceptions. Thankfully, the Patriots weren’t playing a team that had a chance in hell of winning the game. Brandomn Meriweather’s pick-6 put New England on top early in the first quarter, and it was never close from that point forward. Too bad this year’s game in London couldn’t have been more competitive.

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-4)
Pulse of the Pickers: Panthers picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Carolina Panthers
Result: Bills win 20-9
My Record: 6-1
Reaction: So everyone picked Carolina to win, the Panthers outgained the Bills 425-167, and somehow Buffalo managed to win by 11 points. The culprit? Jake Delhomme interceptions. Carolina is addressing their starting quarterback position leading into next weekend’s game, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see someone else starting under center. As for the Bills, two surprising road wins in a row puts them right back into the hunt in the AFC East, despite early problems.

New York Jets (4-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-5)
Pulse of the Pickers: Jets picked 81% of the time.
My Pick: New York Jets
Result: Jets win 38-0
My Record: 7-1
Reaction: After a pathetic game against the Bills last weekend, Mark Sanchez got a gift-wrapped win as game manager in this trip to Oakland. JaMarcus Russell was finally pulled in favor of Bruce Gradkowski, but it didn’t lead to any further progress for the Raiders. A 38-0 game is ugly, and the Jets are back over .500 while Richard Seymour’s playoff prediction for the Raiders is looking a bit bleak now.

Chicago Bears (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
Pulse of the Pickers: Bears picked 67% of the time.
My Pick: Chicago Bears
Result: Bengals win 45-10
My Record: 7-2
Reaction: Surprise! I thought the Bears were a far better team than they showed themselves to be in a 45-10 shellacking at the hands of the Bengals. Five touchdowns from Carson Palmer to three interceptions from Jay Cutler played a big role in allowing the Bengals to remain on top of the AFC North, owning the head-to-head tie-breaker over Pittsburgh. Chicago definitely looks like the loser in the Orton-Cutler trade at this early point of the season.

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
Pulse of the Pickers: Falcons picked 52% of the time.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Result: Cowboys win 37-21
My Record: 7-3
Reaction: This was the closest pick of the week, but I honestly thought that Atlanta would be able to beat a Cowboys team that hadn’t won against a team with a winning record on the season. Surprisingly, Tony Romo had three touchdown passes with no interceptions, while Matt Ryan had two of each. The Cowboys might be a force in the NFC East now with the Giants faltering and Dallas at 4-2. As for the Falcons, they’ll need to play better if they want to keep up with the Saints in the NFC South.

New Orleans Saints (6-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Pulse of the Pickers: Saints picked 90% of the time.
My Pick: New Orleans Saints
Result: Saints win 46-34
My Record: 8-3
Reaction: With the Dolphins leading 24-3 at the two minute warning of the first half, it looked as though New Orleans was on their way to their first loss of the season. With one Drew Brees rushing touchdown as the half concluded, however, the Saints were able to stage a gigantic comeback and win this game quite handily. An early contender for NFL game of the year, for certain. Brees wasn’t perfect, but he was good enough to take the Saints to 6-0. On the other side of the field, terrible loss for Miami that sees them falling back to the cellar in the AFC East with the Bills’ win over Carolina.

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at New York Giants (5-2)
Pulse of the Pickers: Giants picked 95% of the time.
My Pick: New York Giants
Result: Cardinals win 24-17
My Record: 8-4
Reaction: Rough two week stretch for the Giants now; tough loss to the Saints on the road, and perhaps a tougher loss to the Cardinals at home. Arizona has had a tough history of playing games on the east coast, particularly in prime time, but they were able to capitalize on three Eli Manning interceptions to get a huge win on the road. Both teams remain in first place for their respective divisions, but they seem to be going in opposite directions at this point. The Giants will have to regroup with the Cowboys and Eagles knocking on the door below them.

Game on Monday, October 26th, 2009

Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Washington Redskins (2-5)
Pulse of the Pickers: Eagles picked 95% of the time.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Tie-breaker (Each team’s score): Eagles 23, Redskins 10
Result: Eagles win 27-17
My Record: 9-4
Reaction: Just how long can the Redskins continue to pay Jim Zorn to stand on the sideline as a neuteured coach? Obviously, changing the play-caller didn’t do anything, as Philadelphia rolled to a 10-point road victory in Washington. This one came out just as predicted, though injuries to Brian Westbrook and Chris Cooley will affect both teams as they continue on in the season.

Final Week Seven Breakdown
Record: 9-4 (Winning %: .692
Overall Record: 71-32 (Winning %: .689)

Pulse of the Pickers Results
Time to check out how the Pulse of the Pickers breakdown played out in the actual game results. I’ve preserved the original order of the games based on the highest to lowest percentage of picking from the experts I use as my references.

• 100% — Colts over Rams; Colts win; 1-0
• 100% — Patriots over Bucs; Patriots win; 2-0
• 100% — Panthers over Bills; Bills win; 2-1
• 95% — Packers over Browns; Packers win; 3-1
• 95% — Giants over Cardinals; Cardinals win; 3-2
• 95% — Eagles over Redskins; Eagles win; 4-2
• 90% — Saints over Dolphins; Saints win; 5-2
• 81% — Texans over 49ers; Texans win; 6-2
• 81% — Steelers over Vikings; Steelers win; 7-2
• 81% — Jets over Raiders; Jets win; 8-2
• 76% — Chargers over Chiefs; Chargers win; 9-2
• 67% — Bears over Bengals; Bengals win; 9-3
• 52% — Falcons over Cowboys; Cowboys win; 9-4

Interesting results; the results that went against the Pulse of the Pickers were in games that had 100%, 95%, 67% and 52%. The “upsets” on the 67% Bears prediction and 52% Falcons prediction isn’t so surprising, but it is surprising that the 100% favorite Panthers couldn’t win at home against the Bills, and especially surprising that the 95% favorite Giants couldn’t win at home against a Cardinals team that has been historically bad on the east coast. Too small of a sample size to work with yet, but we’ll see how things look after another week of Pulse of the Pickers next week.

And now an update on how I’m doing against the experts through the end of Week 7, including our new expert resources for this week:

• 1. John Czarnecki (FOX) – 75-28 – .728
• 2. Adam Schefter (ESPN) – 74-29 – .718
• 2. Tom Jackson (ESPN) – 74-29 – .718
• 4. Chris Mortensen (ESPN) – 72-31 – .699
• 5. Ron Jaworski (ESPN) – 67-29 — .698
• 6. Brian’s NFL Pick ‘Em – 71-32 – .689
• 6. Merrill Hoge (ESPN) – 71-32 – .689
• 6. Cris Carter (ESPN) – 71-32 – .689
• 9. Mark Schlereth (ESPN) – 70-33 – .680
• 9. Adam Schein (FOX) – 70-33 – .680
• 11. Seth Wickersham (ESPN) – 69-34 – .670
• 11. Keyshawn Johnson (ESPN) – 69-34 – .670
• 13. Jay Glazer (FOX) – 68-35 – .660
• 13. Mike Ditka (ESPN) – 68-35 – .660
• 14. Mike Golic (ESPN) – 67-35 – .657
• 15. Peter Schrager (FOX) – 66-37 – .641
• 16. Alex Marvez (FOX) – 65-38 – .631
• 17. Eric Allen (ESPN) – 64-39 – .621
• 18. Adrian Hasenmayer (FOX) – 63-40 – .611

Note: Since FOXSports.com had not yet updated their records, I had to go through and figure out the numbers myself. Any numbers that are wrong are entirely the fault of my data collection and will be rectified if need be.

Week Eight Match-ups
“Bye” Weeks: Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

Games on Sunday, November 1st

• Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills; Slight Edge in favor of Houston.
• Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears; Slight Edge in favor of Chicago.
• Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys; Slight Edge in favor of Dallas.
• St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions; Tough choice: both teams are bad.
• Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens; Tough choice: big road game for Denver, redemption chance for Baltimore.
• San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts; One-sided in favor of Indianapolis.
• Miami Dolphins at New York Jets; Tough choice: Miami won at home earlier this year, can Jets even it up?
• New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles; Tough Choice: Giants are faltering, Eagles are looking to capitalize.
• Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans; Slight Edge in favor of Jacksonville.
• Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers; One-sided in favor of San Diego.
• Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals; One-sided in favor of Arizona.
• Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers; Tough Choice: emotional game for each team at Lambeau Field.

Game on Monday, November 2nd

• Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints; Slight Edge in favor of New Orleans.

Pick Difficulty Breakdown

• One-sided: 3 picks.
• Slight Edge: 5 picks.
• Tough Choice: 5 picks.

Thank you all for joining me this week, and I look forward to seeing you again this Friday when my picks for Week Eight go live!

As those of you who have already read my NFL 2009 Week Seven Picks are aware, I am introducing a new form of research to my picks beginning this week. I call this research aggregator Pulse of the Pickers and it serves as a single percentage reflecting how a particular game is being predicted based on fans, computer simulations, and expert game pickers from various media outlets.

To give a little bit more of an insight into how this research works, click below and follow a step-by-step breakdown.

For this example, we’re going to use the Falcons-Cowboys match-up from this week’s slate of games, as it was the most hotly-contested pick of the week.

In order to compute the Pulse of the Pickers, I rely on 21 different data inputs to calculate the overall percentage.

1. The first input comes from the Favorite (Fan Picks) line of my write-ups, which is the opinion of the fans using ESPN.com’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. The overall majority team picked by these users can be found on the ESPN NFL Picks and Predictions on the far right. Since the majority for this game was fans picking the Falcons to win, the Falcons get one point.

2. The second input comes from the Favorite (ESPN.com Simulation) line, which is the ESPN Accuscore Game Forecast. This can be a little tricky, however. For the Falcons-Cowboys game, if you go to the game’s intel report, you will see that the Cowboys are winning 65% of simulations. However, if you look at the NFL Picks and Predictions page from above, the pick for Accuscore is the Falcons. Because I’m assuming that the game’s intel report is the actual Accuscore prediction, this goes to the Cowboys and the points are evened up, 1-1.

3. The third input comes from the Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulation), which is the WhatIfSports.com simulation prediction. As you can tell from the Week 7 Picks Page, the Cowboys win 51.3% of simulations. This gives the Cowboys another point and a 2-1 lead.

4. The next input comes from the Madden 2010 Simulation line, which is the result of ESPN’s Video Games page running each of the week’s games in CPU vs. CPU format in Madden 2010. According to the simulations, the Falcons win 27-14, tying the score again at 2 points each.

5-12. The next inputs from from the ESPN Pro Picks line, data gathered from ESPN NFL Picks and Predictions page, this time taking the game predictions of their experts. We can see that the Falcons were picked by 5 experts (Allen, Golic, Hoge, Jaworski, and Schlereth) which brings the score to 7-2 for Atlanta. The Cowboys were picked by 3 experts (Mortensen, Schefter, and Wickersham) to bring the score to 7-5 Atlanta.

13-18. The next inputs are from the FOX Sports Pro Picks line, gathered from Week 7 Expert Picks at FOXSports.com, taking the predictions of their experts. The Falcons were picked by 3 experts (Glazer, Marvez, and Schein) and the Cowboys were picked by 3 experts (Czarnecki, Schrager, and Hasenmayer), bringing the score to 10-8 Atlanta.

19-21. The final inputs are from the new NFL.com Pro Picks line, gathered from NFL.com Playbook Picks. Theismann gave the Falcons a pick while Baldinger and Sharpe picked the Cowboys, leading to a final score of 11-10 Atlanta.

The next step at this point is to take the higher number and divide it by the total number of pick inputs, 21. In this case, Atlanta’s 11 points get divided into 21 to get a percentage of 52%. This means, based on these 21 inputs, the Falcons have been picked slightly more often, 52% of the time.

Since I am primarily a writer and not a mathematician, I’m not going to go through the trouble of weighting different picks based on the expertise of the picker or the reliability of the simulation, so this isn’t a useful aggregator as far as that is concerned. This does, however, give a percentage to the overall opinion among fans, simulations, and experts as to how the particular game is going to play out. It will be interesting to see, once Week Seven is complete, how the results matched up in relation to the picking percentages I’ve reported through the Pulse of the Pickers.

Side note: I found one new source of picks today, but too late to incorporate into my Week Seven picks. Starting with Week Eight, I will be incorporating the ESPN Sunday Countdown picks from Mike Ditka, Keyshawn Johnson, Cris Carter, and Tom Jackson. For those interested in their Week Seven picks, here’s a breakdown:

Green Bay @ Cleveland: 4 for Packers.
San Diego @ Kansas City: 2 for Chargers, 2 for Chiefs.
Indianapolis @ St. Louis: 4 for Colts
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh: 1 for Vikings, 3 for Steelers
New England @ Tampa Bay: 4 for Patriots
San Francisco @ Houston: 4 for Texans
Buffalo @ Carolina: 2 for Bills, 2 for Panthers
NY Jets @ Oakland: 2 for Jets, 2 for Raiders
Atlanta @ Dallas: 2 for Falcons, 2 for Cowboys
Chicago @ Cincinnati: 2 for Bears, 2 for Bengals
New Orleans @ Miami: 1 for Saints, 3 for Dolphins
Arizona @ NY Giants: 4 for Giants
Philadelphia @ Washington: 4 for Eagles

As you can see, many of the picks for this week go along with the other sources already factored in my picks or wouldn’t have an effect (equal number picks), except for the Saints-Dolphins game; this is the only source so far that has the Dolphins as a favorite within the circle of picks.

Hope this is gives you readers a better idea of what this whole Pulse of the Pickers is all about, and I look forward to the results after this weekend’s games are concluded.

Even though Week Six of this 2009 NFL season was wild and crazy with upsets, I still managed to improve to a 9-5 record. That said, I am still hoping for a return to double-digit wins this week; a tall task with a slate of very tight games this time around. With each passing week, the games get more and more important as we approach the halfway mark of the year. Will any teams be able to settle themselves on a strong path to the playoffs at this early stage?

Two quick notes before we head into the games; first off, I have decided to add a new set of expert picks: this time from NFL.com, where Brian Baldinger, Sterling Sharpe, and Joe Theismann pick each week’s winners. I don’t have their records for the season (and am not sure that I want to go through the trouble to compiling those numbers), but I will include their picks for each week forward. Three experts doesn’t make for a very large sample size for the NFL.com picking pool, but added into all of the experts I reference here makes it a better show. Also, I am always looking for new sources for expert picks, so if you know of any other places picking the winners (not picking against the spread), be sure to leave a comment and let me know.

There is also another category I’ve added, just above my personal pick for the week, called Pulse of the Pickers. This is a one-stop number gauging which team has been most-favored by the three simulations I’m using as well as my three sources of expert picks and the fan favorite from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em. Each simulation result and each individual pick has equal weight, and the Pulse of the Pickers reflects the percentage of “pickers” selecting the favorite team out of the whole. It’s not a perfect science, as a simulation favoring one team 51%-49% is not a clear pick for that favorite, but we’ll see how it goes. This is, however, a good way to see what the fans, simulations, and experts think and a good way to pick against the favorites if that’s how you like to play it.

Click ahead for my NFL 2009 Week Seven Picks!

Games on Sunday, October 25th, 2009

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-5)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Packers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Packers win 76% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Packers win 76.6% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Packers win 30-17
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Packers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 5 for Packers, 1 for Browns
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Packers
Pulse of the Pickers: Packers picked 95% of the time.
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
Reasoning: Pretty easy pick here, as even with Green Bay’s porous offensive line, there should be no issue with Aaron Rodgers lighting up the Browns. If not for a terrible game against a terrible team, Cleveland would still be winless on the year; I don’t expect them to get win #2 against a team fighting in a tough NFC North.

San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Chargers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Chargers win 68% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Chargers win 74.4% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Chargers win 27-14
ESPN Pro Picks: 7 for Chargers, 1 for Chiefs
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 3 for Chargers, 3 for Chiefs
NFL.com Pro Picks: 2 for Chargers, 1 for Chiefs
Pulse of the Pickers: Chargers picked 76% of the time.
My Pick: San Diego Chargers
Reasoning: This is a somewhat-popular “Upset Special” pick, as you can see from ESPN’s Chris Mortsensen and half of the FoxSports crew picking Kansas City. And it’s hard to argue, because Kansas City is coming off their first win of the season and San Diego is finding whole new ways to underachieve given the talent they have on their team. Even though the Chargers only have one more win on the season than the Chiefs (crazy, isn’t it?), I think I’m going to have to go with San Diego here. As inconsistent as they have been, traditionally, it’s just difficult to see them losing against such a bad KC team.

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Texans
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Texans win 65% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Texans win 53.4% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: 49ers win 27-25
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Texans
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 3 for 49ers, 3 for Texans
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Texans
Pulse of the Pickers: Texans picked 81% of the time.
My Pick: Houston Texans
Reasoning: I must admit a good deal of surprise in the picks for this game. The 49ers are leading the NFC West, which isn’t exactly the toughest division in the league (I know), but they’re the underdog to an inconsistent Houston team playing .500 football and sitting third place in the AFC South. Matt Schaub has been special in the wins this year, but he’s been quite pedestrian in the losses. The Falcons beat up on the 49ers going into San Francisco’s “Bye” week, so you would expect Mike Singletary to have worked his players into a frenzy getting ready for this game to re-establish themselves in the West. It’s a tough pick to make, and I hate to pick against a team coming off a “Bye”, but I’m taking the Texans here.

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-6)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Colts
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Colts win 88% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Colts win 89.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Colts win 33-20
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Colts
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Colts
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Colts
Pulse of the Pickers: Colts picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Reasoning: Well, this one’s not tough at all. Peyton’s back after a “Bye” week, and the schedule gods granted him a terrible St. Louis team to make his return. The Rams might’ve taken the Jaguars to overtime last week, but they’re facing a much better team from that AFC South this time around. Shouldn’t be close.

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Steelers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Steelers win 54% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Vikings win 54.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Steelers win 24-17
ESPN Pro Picks: 2 for Vikings, 6 for Steelers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Steelers
NFL.com Pro Picks: 1 for Vikings, 2 for Steelers
Pulse of the Pickers: Steelers picked 81% of the time.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Reasoning: Now here’s a legitimately tough game to make a pick for on the weekend. The simulations are split on how the game is going to go, but the pickers are favoring the Steelers. It does seem as though the Steelers are getting a slight edge among those of us who watch the games, and given that they’re defending Super Bowl champions, it’s easy to make that statement. And it’s easy to pick against the Vikings on the road, since the Vikings’ road schedule has been cake so far and now they’re going to face the cold weather and a tough team. On the other hand, the Steelers did a poor job holding onto the ball last week against the Browns; you can do that against Cleveland, but if they do that against Minnesota this weekend, they won’t win. Real tough one to call, but the outdoor hazard of playing at Heinz Field against Troy Polamalu and the rest of the Steeler’s defense will likely end Brett Favre’s undefeated run.

New England Patriots (4-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Patriots
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Patriots win 84% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Patriots win 88.2% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Patriots win 30-13
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Patriots
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Patriots
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Patriots
Pulse of the Pickers: Patriots picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: New England Patriots
Reasoning: Sorry, London. You might get to watch a great team in the Patriots, but unfortunately you’re going to have to watch the Buccaneers on the same field. A great choice for a game in Europe; if Roger Goodell wants the already-waning interest in the NFL to plummet further. Irony watch: you think the Patriots will bring the musketmen and inadvertently start Revolutionary War II?

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Panthers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Panthers win 65% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Panthers win 60.3% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Panthers win 24-17
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Panthers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Panthers
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Panthers
Pulse of the Pickers: Panthers picked 100% of the time.
My Pick: Carolina Panthers
Reasoning: It’s hard to pick the Bills in most cases, even after an overtime comeback win against the Jets. It does surprise me, however, that all of the picks are going to Carolina. Matt Sanchez threw 5 picks last weekend, so who’s to say that Jake Delhomme doesn’t do the same and gift-wrap this one for Buffalo as well? It is hard though, admittedly, to imagine the Bills winning on the road with a backup quarterback. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

New York Jets (3-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Jets
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Jets win 56% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Jets win 61.3% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Jets win 20-13
ESPN Pro Picks: 6 for Jets, 2 for Raiders
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Jets
NFL.com Pro Picks: 1 for Jets, 2 for Raiders
Pulse of the Pickers: Jets picked 81% of the time.
My Pick: New York Jets
Reasoning: Both teams had surprising results last week; the Jets in their overtime loss to Buffalo, and the Raiders in their upset victory over the Eagles. However, despite Richard Seymour’s claims of Oakland being a team that will make the playoffs this year, I can’t say that I’m fully on-board that train yet. As poorly as Mark Sanchez has played in the past few weeks, JaMarcus Russell has played terrible all season long. The Raiders have a chance if they can force Sanchez to make more bad decisions, but the Jets started off 3-0 and are now 3-3; they’re hungry to show that they’re the team that started off the yeard with big wins. It’ll be a battle, but I see the Jets coming out on top. That said, I won’t be crying if “Gang-Green” loses again and falls further behind the Patriots.

Chicago Bears (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Bengals
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Bears win 55% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Bengals win 54.1% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Bears win 23-16
ESPN Pro Picks: 4 for Bears, 4 for Bengals
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Bears
NFL.com Pro Picks: 2 for Bears, 1 for Bengals
Pulse of the Pickers: Bears picked 67% of the time.
My Pick: Chicago Bears
Reasoning: And here’s another game that will have a huge impact on picking records, as even the simulations are split on who will win, nevermind the 4-and-4 from ESPN’s pickers. Not too surprising to see 6 picks for the Bears from FoxSports, as they tend to favor the NFC in cross-conference match-ups. The Bengals, after a strong start, looked quite normal against the Texans last weekend. The Bears, on the other hand, had a chance to win in Atlanta but gave it away. I had a devil of a time picking Bengals games early in the year because they were finding creative ways to lose and then win, but with the loss of Bengals’ top defensive lineman Antwan Odom, one of their big playmakers for the year, it’s hard to pick them in this game. I’ll pick the Bears here.

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Falcons
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Cowboys win 67% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Cowboys win 51.3% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Falcons win 27-14
ESPN Pro Picks: 5 for Falcons, 3 for Cowboys
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 3 for Falcons, 3 for Cowboys
NFL.com Pro Picks: 1 for Falcons, 2 for Cowboys
Pulse of the Pickers: Falcons picked 52% of the time.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Reasoning: And yet another tight game pick-wise. The fans don’t agree with the simulations, the experts are split, all hell is breaking loose. The Cowboys are coming off a “Bye” week and playing another home game, so the pressure is on for them to make a stand for owner Jerry Jones. At the same time, the Falcons are coming off an emotional win over the Bears and are proving themselves a very good team on the season so far. It’s a tough pick to make, because the Cowboys are so rested and Atlanta is likely still drained after a tough win. However, I trust Matt Ryan more than I trust Tony Romo, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Falcons leave the new stadium with a “W”.

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Saints
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Saints win 59% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Saints win 76.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Saints win 38-24
ESPN Pro Picks: 6 for Saints, 2 for Dolphins
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Saints
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Saints
Pulse of the Pickers: Saints picked 90% of the time.
My Pick: New Orleans Saints
Reasoning: Yes, Miami is coming off of their “Bye” week and playing at home; I’m still not picking them. Drew Brees and the Saints have something really special going this year, reminiscent of the Patriots’ 2007 dream season. The only difference is that the Saints probably have a better defense than that Patriots’ team, which makes them even more of a favorite for a chance at the Super Bowl this year. And, ironically enough, the Super Bowl is in Miami. It will be interesting to see how the New Orleans defense will handle Chad Henne and the Wildcat, but if Brees and the offense are scoring, it won’t matter.

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at New York Giants (5-1)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Giants
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Giants win 72% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Giants win 54.3% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Giants win 19-13 in OT
ESPN Pro Picks: 1 for Cardinals, 7 for Giants
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Giants
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Giants
Pulse of the Pickers: Giants picked 95% of the time.
My Pick: New York Giants
Reasoning: Somehow, despite yield over 40 points to the Saints, the Giants still field the #1 defense in the NFL. That could be problematic for the Cardinals, who had an easy defense to toy with in a blowout win over the Seahawks last weekend. Had the Giants been playing anybody but the Saints last weekend, they would’ve had more than enough points to win the game. The Cardinals have a good team, they’re the defending NFC champions, but it’s hard to pick them in the cold northeast over a team as tough as the Giants.

Game on Monday, October 26th, 2009

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) at Washington Redskins (2-4)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Eagles
Favorite (ESPN Simulations): Eagles win 66% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports Simulations): Eagles win 68.9% of simulations.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Eagles win 24-10
ESPN Pro Picks: 7 for Eagles
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 5 for Eagles, 1 for Redskins
NFL.com Pro Picks: 3 for Eagles
Pulse of the Pickers: Eagles picked 95% of the time.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Tie-breaker (Each team’s score): Eagles 23, Redskins 10
Reasoning: When your head coach is no longer allowed to call the team’s plays, you know something is up; that’s the situation Washington faces with coach Jim Zorn. As much as it could be tempting to think that the Eagles will get upset again after their pathetic loss in Oakland last weekend, this is a different game. The Redskins have been giving up wins to winless teams all year, and the Eagles are better than that. Shouldn’t be much of a contest, even with Philadelphia playing on the road; what a bad MNF match-up to follow a great Broncos-Chargers game last week.

Pulse of the Pickers Rankings
This week, since I’m introducing the Pulse of the Pickers feature here, I’m dropping the Upset Watch Games entirely and instead ranking the week’s match-ups based on the percentages I’m getting. In order, from highest to lowest %, here’s Week 7:

• 100% — Colts over Rams
• 100% — Patriots over Bucs
• 100% — Panthers over Bills
• 95% — Packers over Browns
• 95% — Giants over Cardinals
• 95% — Eagles over Redskins
• 90% — Saints over Dolphins
  
  

• 81% — Texans over 49ers
• 81% — Steelers over Vikings
• 81% — Jets over Raiders
  
  

• 76% — Chargers over Chiefs
• 67% — Bears over Bengals
• 52% — Falcons over Cowboys
  

Overall Comments
This is the most research I’ve done for a week of NFL picks to date, and it’ll be interesting to see how the games end up playing out with all of this statistical data in mind. A lot of tough games on this schedule, so I’m surprised to see the Pulse of the Pickers so high on a lot of these match-ups, but we’ll see how it all plays out when I post results on Tuesday morning!

After this crazy Week Six of the 2009 NFL season, I have pretty much resigned myself that it is nearly impossible to correctly pick every game in a single weekend of football action. There were so many upsets and strange results this past weekend that agonizing over every missed pick is an exercise in wasting your time; case in point: how many people could have potentially seen the Raiders upsetting the Eagles, even though the game was in Oakland? How many people could’ve imagined the Jets losing (AT HOME) to the disappointing Bills after early season talk was flirting with a Giants-Jets Super Bowl? Each week answers a few questions and raises a whole ton more, so the best an NFL game picker can do is use their resources and hope for the best.

My final record for Week Six of the 2009 NFL Season was 9-5 for a winning percentage of .643. Combined with my record from the season so far, this brings me to a season-long record of 62-28 and a winning percentage of .689 based on the first 90 games of the year. Click below for a game-by-game breakdown of Week Six.

Games on Sunday, October 18th, 2009

Houston Texans (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
My Group’s Picks: 3 for Bengals
Result: Texans win 28-17
My Record: 0-1
Reaction: I did have some concerns over this pick, but I had no idea that Matt Schaub was going to snap back to life and have another four touchdown game in this easy win over Cincinnati on the road. Even with a three-point lead at the half, the Bengals didn’t look like the surprising team that had stormed out to a 4-1 record with major upset victories. All it took was two third-quarter touchdown passes for the Texans to lock this one up. No late game heroics for the Bengals this time around.

Detroit Lions (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
My Group’s Picks: 3 for Packers
Result: Packers win 26-0
My Record: 1-1
Reaction: The outcome might not have been surprising, but I must admit that I was surprised to see the Lions sack Aaron Rodgers so many times. This raises some major concerns about a Packers’ offensive line that has already been troubled by injuries so far this season. If Green Bay can’t keep their quarterback upright against a bad Lions team, how are they going to handle better teams in the coming weeks?

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Minnesota Vikings (6-0)
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings
My Group’s Picks: 1 for Ravens, 2 for Vikings
Result: Vikings win 33-31
My Record: 2-1
Reaction: The first major pick of the day, and what a game. I legitimately like the Ravens, so it gave me no pleasure to see Joe Flacco struggle in the first half. The Vikings nearly let the game slip away by letting up 21 points in the fourth quarter, however. Really poor defensive play from a Minnesota unit that had kept Baltimore quiet throughout the first half, allowing only a late second quarter field goal. By all rights, the Vikings should’ve lost this game, but a missed field goal kick at the final whistle allowed them to slink away with another win to stay undefeated.

New York Giants (5-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-0)
My Pick: New Orleans Saints
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Giants, 1 for Saints
Result: Saints win 48-27
My Record: 3-1
Reaction: Big game number two of the early afternoon, and what a dominating performance put up by Drew Brees and the Saints. After failing to throw touchdown passes in his previous two games, Brees answered his critics with a four touchdown performance against what was thought to be one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Saints scored touchdowns on each of their first four offensive possessions, and with their revamped defense that was more than enough to take this major showdown of undefeated teams.

Carolina Panthers (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
My Pick: Carolina Panthers
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Panthers, 1 for Buccaneers
Result: Panthers win 28-21
My Record: 4-1
Reaction: Jake Delhomme became “Shaky Jake” again, but a renewed faith in the Panthers’ running game allowed Carolina to take this road victory. Bucs’ starter Josh Johnson outplayed his older counterpart, but it was the two-headed rushing attack of Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart who made the difference, with each running back rushing for over 100 yards. Nice shootout game, although Tampa Bay might’ve been in it for longer than they should have been thanks to Delhomme throwing a pick-six.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) at Washington Redskins (2-4)
My Pick: Washington Redskins
My Group’s Picks: 1 for Chiefs, 2 for Redskins
Result: Chiefs win 14-6
My Record: 4-2
Reaction: As I said in my picks, I initially wanted to go with the Chiefs but I listened to the research and picked the Redskins. Bad call, as Washington put up such offensive futility that starting quarterback Jason Campbell was benched in favor of Todd Collins, who didn’t do much better. This isn’t to say that Kansas City looked much better, as neither team scored a touchdown in the game and all the points came from field goals and a late safety by the Chiefs’ defense. Each of these teams have a multitude of issues to address, and it’s not going to be pretty until they do.

St. Louis Rams (0-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
My Group’s Picks: 3 for Jaguars
Result: Jaguars win 23-20 in OT
My Record: 5-2
Reaction: In my mind, it’s absurd that this game had to go to overtime for the Jaguars to win. You have to credit the Rams, however, for putting up a fight even though their season is pretty much lost with an 0-6 record at this point. Despite putting up big passing numbers, David Garrard proved a liability under center for Jacksonville with two ill-advised interceptions. Thankfully for him, Maurice Jones-Drew came up big with over a 100 yards on the ground to help the Jaguars avoid an embarrassing loss at home.

Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
My Group’s Picks: 3 for Steelers
Result: Steelers win 27-14
My Record: 6-2
Reaction: The Steelers may have won by nearly two touchdowns, but this was an ugly game. Each team turned the ball over four times (Browns had 2 lost fumbles and 2 INTs, Steelers had 3 lost fumbles and 1 INT) and the Steelers’ bonehead decision to punt the ball to Josh Cribbs turned into a Cleveland touchdown. A win is a win in the NFL, but the Steelers have to have their fans feeling a little worried when Pittsburgh has such trouble holding onto possession against a 1-5 team at home.

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks
My Group’s Picks: 1 for Cardinals, 2 for Seahawks
Result: Cardinals win 27-3
My Record: 6-3
Reaction: Yikes. This was an ugly game. Before the Seahawks even had their first offensive possession, they were already down 14-0. The Cardinals didn’t let up and the Seahawks lost even more players to injury, including a big loss of linebacker Lofa Tatupu for the remainder of the season. What seemed like a major match-up to decide who would hold power in the NFC West quickly became a massacre, with the Cardinals on top 17-3 at halftime. After a huge game against the Jaguars last weekend, Matt Hasselbeck came tumbling back to earth as he got outplayed by Kurt Warner. Seattle has a tough road ahead if they want to compete for the division title, while the Cardinals are right back in position to contend.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
My Group’s Picks: 3 for Eagles
Result: Raiders win 13-9
My Record: 6-4
Reaction: This is an early candidate for upset of the year. A strong Eagles team got held to three field goals and JaMarcus Russell managed to complete a long touchdown pass to give the Raiders their second win of the season. I can’t imagine anybody actually picking the Raiders for this game except for in a joking manner or by some arbitrary assumption of an upset being due. McNabb was under constant pressure, and this is bad news for a Philadelphia team playing in the tough NFC East.

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at New York Jets (3-3)
My Pick: New York Jets
My Group’s Picks: 3 for Jets
Result: Bills win 16-13 in OT
My Record: 6-5
Reaction: It’s amazing what a few weeks can do. Three weeks ago, Mark Sanchez was the “Sanchise” for Jets fans and New York had upset divisional rival New England on their way to the top of the AFC East. Now, after a five-interception performance, including one pick that set up Buffalo for the winning field goal in overtime, there is much disarray for fans of New York’s AFC team. It’s perhaps even more amazing that Buffalo was reliant on their backup quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, after Trent Edwards was forced out of the game early due to injury. For a while in overtime, it appeared that neither team was interested in winning, but Sanchez’s final pick of the game was also his most costly as Rian Lindell kicked a 47 yard field goal with 2:44 left in the extra period.

Tennesseee Titans (0-6) at New England Patriots (4-2)
My Pick: New England Patriots
My Group’s Picks: 3 for Patriots
Result: Patriots win 59-0
My Record: 7-5
Reaction: Things were ugly enough in Tennessee before this trip to New England, but after a snowy 59-0 drubbing it’s easy to say that this might be the lowest point possible for the Titans. Tom Brady had a field day with an injured Tennessee secondary and set an NFL record by throwing five touchdown passes in the second quarter alone, finishing with six touchdown passes for the game after an early second half score. The Patriots’ 45-0 halftime lead was the largest in NFL history and the Patriots set a new record for offensive production. On the other side of the ball, Kerry Collins managed to complete only two passes in twelve attempts for a total yardage of -7; ouch.

Chicago Bears (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons
My Group’s Picks: 1 for Bears, 2 for Falcons
Result: Falcons win 21-14
My Record: 8-5
Reaction: The offense might not have been sharp, and Jay Cutler may have outplayed Matt Ryan, but the Falcons defense was able to stand up when it needed to and managed a seven-point victory at home. Though the defense wasn’t as sharp as it could have been (the Bears outgained the Falcons by over a hundred yards), they made the plays they needed to in order to hold on to this home victory. A disappointing result for the Bears, particularly with wins by the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North this week, but they should be able to rebound.

Game on Monday, October 19th, 2009

Denver Broncos (6-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)
My Pick: Denver Broncos
Tie-breaker (Each team’s score): Broncos 20, Chargers 17
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Broncos, 1 for Chargers
Result: Broncos win 34-23
My Record: 9-5
Reaction: My prediction of each team’s score was met by halftime, but I was correct in thinking that a surprising Broncos team would continue their undefeated roll with a road win over the Chargers. San Diego took a 23-17 lead early in the third quarter, but they were shut out for the rest of the game as Denver put up 17 unanswered points to put the game out of reach. It’s amazing to think about how many people (myself included) were down on Josh McDaniels and the Broncos when they made the trade for Kyle Orton and gave up Jay Cutler; after a night like last night, where Orton out-dueled perennial Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers, I can only laugh at how wrong I was. In the meantime, it’s panic time in San Diego; they might be looking at being out of the playoffs for the first time in a while. Finally, props to Broncos kick returner Eddie Royal; a kickoff return and punt return for touchdown, both in the first half, to represent both of Denver’s first-half touchdowns.

Final Week Six Breakdown
Record: 9-5 (Winning %: .643
Overall Record: 62-28 (Winning %: .689)

Upset Watch Results

• 1. Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals; Texans win, 0-1
• 2. Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings; Vikings win, 1-1
• 3. New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints; Saints win, 2-1
• 4. Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Panthers win, 3-1
• 5. Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins; Chiefs win, 3-2
• 6. Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks; Cardinals win, 3-3
• 7. Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons; Falcons win, 4-3
• 8. Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers; Chargers win, 5-3

Overall Comments
Obviously, a 5-3 result in my Upset Watch Games went a long way towards my one-pick improvement over last week’s picks. What was surprising was that the other two losses came from games that appeared to be easy picks; the aforementioned Raiders over Eagles and Bills over Jets. I must admit good fortune in the Ravens-Vikings game, as that could very well have been a loss if not for a shanked field goal as time expired. I did have a good feeling about the Giants-Saints match-up though, so it was nice to see such a good victory there. And, as a Patriots fan, how can I argue with a 59-0, record-setting blowout of the Titans?

Week Seven Match-ups
“Bye” Weeks: Denver, Detroit, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, Baltimore
Note: Week Seven is a thirteen-game weekend due to the extra teams on “Bye” weeks.

Games on Sunday, October 25th

• Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns — One-sided in favor of Packers.
• San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs — Slight edge: Even as inconsistent as they have been, San Diego is the better team.
• Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams — One-sided in favor of Colts.
• Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers –Tough Choice: Vikings’ first big road test, Steelers were sloppy last week.
• New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — One-sided in favor of Patriots.
• San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans — Tough Choice: 49ers coming off “Bye”, Texans are good but inconsistent.
• Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers — Tough Choice: Two fairly mediocre teams.
• New York Jets at Oakland Raiders — Tough Choice: Jets’ stock is falling, Raiders pulled major upset vs. Eagles.
• Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys — Tough Choice: Falcons are good, Cowboys at home after “Bye” week.
• Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals — Slight Edge: Bears seem stronger.
• New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins — Slight Edge: Saints seem like best team in the league, but Wildcat offense is a wild card in Miami.
• Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants — Tough Choice: Cardinals spanked Seattle, but Giants are at home and looking to prove themselves.

Game on Monday, October 26th

• Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins — One-sided: Even after a bad loss to Oakland, Philadelphia is the favorite here.

Pick Difficulty Breakdown

• One-sided: 4 picks.
• Slight Edge: 2 picks.
• Tough Choice: 6 picks.

And, finally, an updated show of where my picks stand against the expert pickers of ESPN.com and FoxSports.com. Note that Ron Jaworski (who doesn’t pick MNF games because he announces them) and Mike Golic (who missed one MNF pick for the same reason) are ranked based on their winning percentages.

• 1. John Czarnecki (FOX) – 66-24 – .733
• 2. Chris Mortensen (ESPN) – 64-26 – .711
• 3. Ron Jaworski (ESPN) – 59-25 — .702
• 4. Adam Schefter (ESPN) – 63-27 – .700
• 5. Brian’s NFL Pick ‘Em – 62-28 – .689
• 5. Merrill Hoge (ESPN) – 62-28 – .689
• 5. Mark Schlereth (ESPN) – 62-28 – .689
• 5. Adam Schein (FOX) – 62-28 – .689
• 9. Jay Glazer (FOX) – 61-29 – .678
• 10. Seth Wickersham (ESPN) – 59-31 – .656
• 11. Mike Golic (ESPN) – 58-31 – .652
• 12. Peter Schrager (FOX) – 58-32 – .644
• 13. Alex Marvez (FOX) – 57-33 – .633
• 14. Eric Allen (ESPN) – 55-35 – .611
• 15. Adrian Hasenmayer (FOX) – 54-36 – .600

Thank you all for joining me this week, and I look forward to seeing you again this Friday when my picks for Week Seven go live!

It was a rough Week Five of picks for me in this 2009 NFL season, finishing with my worst record to date: 8-6. After such a poor showing, I am definitely going to be working harder on my picks for this weekend to try and make up for that disappointment. Week Five was definitely a destabilizing week in terms of what everyone on the outside thought about teams like the Bengals, Ravens, 49ers, Broncos, and Patriots. Will Week Six of the season bring more stability? If this season has set any precedent so far, we’ll be just as surprised come Sunday and Monday night.

Click ahead for my NFL 2009 Week Six Picks!

Games on Sunday, October 18th, 2009

Houston Texans (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Bengals
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Bengals win 58% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Bengals win 65.5% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 1 for Texans, 7 for Bengals
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 2 for Texans, 4 for Bengals
Madden 2010 Simulation: Texans 31, Bengals 24
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Reasoning: The Bengals have come up with some really big wins so far this season, even though every game has been decided on essentially the last play. The Texans are so inconsistent while the Bengals have had consistency in each game (and would be 5-0 if not for the miracle Broncos play), and after the Texans couldn’t score on three plays from the goal line against a mediocre Cardinals team, I don’t have faith in them against a team that cannot string together good plays. True, the Texans are due a win (if you believe in the flip-flop method of Texans wins and losses), but Cincinnati has proven themselves worth picking.

Detroit Lions (1-4) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Packers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Packers win 86% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Packers win 75.6% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Packers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Packers
Madden 2010 Simulation: Packers 34, Lions 27
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
Reasoning: Sorry Lions; I can’t pick you on the road in the division in Lambeau Field. Not that I would be picking the Lions at home against the Packers either, mind you. The questionable health of Matt Stafford makes it all the easier to not put any faith in Detroit this season. Even with a porous offensive line, Aaron Rodgers should have enough proetection to run up the score.

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Vikings
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Vikings win 59% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Vikings win 67.2% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 4 for Ravens, 4 for Vikings
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 3 for Ravens, 3 for Vikings
Madden 2010 Simulation: Vikings 21, Ravens 7
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Reasoning: This is a really tough pick, and the pros at ESPN and FoxSports are evenly split on who they believe will come out of the Metrodome with a win. Even though the Vikings don’t have an overwhelming advantage in the simulations (though the 67.2% from WhatIfSports is surprising), the Ravens have really slipped in the past few weeks. I still have faith in Baltimore to be competitive this season (though a loss would drop them to 3-3), but I don’t believe that they can take out the undefeated Vikings at home. That said, a Ravens victory would go far towards getting them back on track, particularly if the Texans somehow manage to upset the Bengals.

New York Giants (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-0)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Saints
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Saints win 59% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Saints win 63% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 2 for Giants, 6 for Saints
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 2 for Giants, 4 for Saints
Madden 2010 Simulation: Giants 26, Saints 21
My Pick: New Orleans Saints
Reasoning: For all of the faith people have put in the Giants so far this season, and after Drew Brees has failed to throw a touchdown pass in his last two games, I’m a bit surprised at the 10-4 picks from the experts. However, I suppose you have to tip your hat to the home team coming off a “Bye” week when you look for some semblance of reasoning in a battle between undefeated teams. The Saints defense has been a positive revelation this year, but they’ll have a really tough test against Eli Manning and the Giants offense. The Giants defense aren’t slouches either, so it could be a tough game for New Orleans. That being said, I’m trending with the Saints because of the home field advantage and the rest they got from a week off to plan for this huge early season match-up.

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Panthers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Panthers win 63% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Panthers win 69.6% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 7 for Panthers, 1 for Buccaneers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 5 for Panthers, 1 for Buccaneers
Madden 2010 Simulation: Panthers 31, Buccaneers 17
My Pick: Carolina Panthers
Reasoning: Before their “Bye” week, the Panthers were devastated. Three losses to open the season, and a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who was throwing more interceptions than completions, and the season could’ve been declared lost. An easy schedule coming off the “Bye” week, however, leaves Carolina in position to bring their record back to a more reputable level. As bad as the Panthers were to start the season, the Buccaneers are even worse now. Even as inconsistent as the Panthers have been, it shouldn’t be difficult for them to pick up the road victory this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Redskins
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Redskins win 72% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Redskins win 55.9% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 2 for Chiefs, 6 for Redskins
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 1 for Chiefs, 5 for Redskins
Madden 2010 Simulation: Redskins 26, Chiefs 20
My Pick: Washington Redskins
Reasoning: This was a really tough pick for me to make this week, and I originally went with the Chiefs in an upset (though the Redskins aren’t really strong enough to honestly be considered a favorite). However, after re-checking the simulation stats and considering the trends of expert picks, I changed my mind. I still feel as though the Chiefs have a puncher’s chance in this fight, and if the Redskins sputter, Matt Cassell might be able to lead Kansas City to their first victory of the season. However, the Redskins are undefeated at home despite really terrible play, and I could see them pulling out another ugly home win in front of a booing fanbase.

St. Louis Rams (0-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Jaguars
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Jaguars win 81% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Jaguars win 70.1% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Jaguars
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Jaguars
Madden 2010 Simulation: Jaguars 24, Rams 14
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Reasoning: The St. Louis Rams: better known as 2009’s version of the 2008 Detroit Lions. Ugly season, and the return of Marc Bulger at quarterback does nothing to improve the Rams’ chances, even against a Jacksonville team that was blown out in an ugly loss to the Seahawks last week. If anything, the Jaguars will be motivated to run up the score on the hapless Rams to make up for their poor showing last week.

Cleveland Browns (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Steelers
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Steelers win 89% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Steelers win 83.3% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Steelers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Steelers
Madden 2010 Simulation: Steelers 37, Browns 12
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Reasoning: Hope the Browns fans enjoyed their starting quarterback Derek Anderson’s 2-17 passing effort for the 6-3 win last week. They aren’t going into Heinz Field and coming away with their second victory of the season this time around. I’d be surprised if the Browns got half of the 12 points predicted by the Madden 2010 simulation.

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Cardinals
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Seahawks win 55% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Seahawks win 53.6% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 1 for Cardinals, 7 for Seahawks
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 2 for Cardinals, 4 for Seahawks
Madden 2010 Simulation: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 24
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Reasoning: Great divisional match-up in the NFC West this week, with two perennial favorites coming off two very different types of victories. The Cardinals needed to win with defense against the Texans at home, with a huge goal line stand to close it out. The Seahawks, also at home, ran roughshod over a hapless Jacksonville team to the tune of 41-0. With a healthy Matt Hasselbeck back under center for Seattle, it’s really hard to pick against them, particularly with home-field advantage. That said, it should be a close and hard-fought match-up.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Eagles
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Eagles win 85% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Eagles win 89.6% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Eagles
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Eagles
Madden 2010 Simulation: Eagles 17, Raiders 3
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Reasoning: Another easy pick; the Raiders are awful this year, with arguably the worst NFL quarterback in recent history. The Eagles are playing great behind a healthy Donovan McNabb and a tough defense. Even on the road, the Eagles won’t have any trouble taking care of business with one of the NFL’s worst clubs.

Buffalo Bills (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Jets
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Jets win 72% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Jets win 66% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 8 for Jets
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Jets
Madden 2010 Simulation: Jets 30, Bills 27
My Pick: New York Jets
Reasoning: A promising early start for the Bills has been replaced by continual disappointment in recent weeks. A promising start for the Jets has been stunted somewhat with losses in the past two weeks. Which New York team is in a better position to win this game? The answer is clearly the Jets, who put up big numbers in a loss to Miami last week, while the Bills gave the Browns their first win in a performance where they only scored a field goal. A group of Buffalo fans recently raised money to display a billboard calling for change in the city; any response to help the team won’t come in enough time to save this weekend’s game.

Tennesseee Titans (0-5) at New England Patriots (3-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Patriots
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Patriots win 70% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Patriots win 76.9% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 1 for Titans, 7 for Patriots
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 6 for Patriots
Madden 2010 Simulation: Patriots 31, Titans 17
My Pick: New England Patriots
Reasoning: Did anyone imagine the Titans going 0-5 to start the season, honestly? I sure didn’t, but I also don’t think they’ll be 1-5 after this weekend’s trip to Gillette Stadium to take on the Patriots. New England is coming off a tough loss to Denver in overtime, but this week they get to face one of the league’s worst pass defenses; a dream situation for Tom Brady, who’s still trying to lock in a good timing with his receivers. Even though the Patriots have been a little hit-and-miss this season, it’s not hard to see them winning this match-up.

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Falcons
Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): Falcons win 62% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations): Falcons win 63% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 1 for Bears, 7 for Falcons
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 1 for Bears, 5 for Falcons
Madden 2010 Simulation: Falcons 24, Bears 16
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Reasoning: The Falcons surprised me last weekend by coming off their “Bye” week and beating the hell out of the 49ers in a blowout win. The Bears are coming off their own “Bye” week this week, but they have to go into the Georgia Dome to face a strong Atlanta team. Aside from a humbling loss to New England, the Falcons have looked good this year, boasting much more comfortable victories than the Bears have put up so far this season. Chicago has a solid team, but I feel better about the Falcons.

Game on Monday, October 19th, 2009

Denver Broncos (5-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-2)
Favorite (Fan Picks): Broncos
Favorite (ESPN Simulations): Chargers win 62% of simulations.
Favorite (WhatIfSports Simulations): Broncos win 56.1% of simulations.
ESPN Pro Picks: 2 for Broncos, 5 for Chargers
FOX Sports Pro Picks: 3 for Broncos, 3 for Chargers
Madden 2010 Simulation: Broncos 30, Chargers 26
My Pick: Denver Broncos
Tie-breaker (Each team’s score): Broncos 20, Chargers 17
Reasoning: For the second week in a row, the ESPN and WhatIfSports simulations do not match up for the Monday Night Football game. The Chargers have a better overall chance of victory, and they’re coming off their “Bye” week, but it’s hard to pick against an undefeated Denver team after they shut out a strong Patriots offense in the second half and overtime of last week’s upset win. The Chargers have been so mediocre in recent years, despite their division wins, and I’ve never put much stock in them to play hard when it matters. This is a big game for San Diego, as a loss will put them far back in the AFC West; it’s hard to imagine the Broncos’ miraculous start to the season coming to an end, even on the road.

Upset Watch Games

• 1. Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
• 2. Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
• 3. New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
• 4. Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 5. Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
• 6. Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
• 7. Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
• 8. Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Another slate of eight Upset Watch Games; man, I hate that. Hopefully I can put up better numbers in these games than I did last week, though it won’t be hard to pull that off.

Overall Comments
It’s a tough weekend ahead, with a lot of huge match-ups. I am feeling confident enough in my picks, but that doesn’t guarantee anything; somehow, I thought that my picks last week were really strong, and we all saw how that ended up. Should be an exciting weekend of games, and I hope that you all join me back here Monday night/Tuesday morning for the results!

Part of the NFL picker’s life is very similar to the life of an NFL player; you have to have a short memory so that you can rebound after a rough week of picks and hopefully improve in the next week. I’m going to need to get amnesia real quick after Week Five. After a somewhat disappointing 10-4 record for the first 14-game week of the season last week, I managed to fare worse this time around. By the end of Sunday afternoon’s games, I’d already lost five picks, topping my entire week’s total from Week Four.

My final record for Week Five of the 2009 NFL Season was 8-6 for a winning percentage of .571. Combined with my record from the season so far, this brings me to a season-long record of 53-23 and a winning percentage of .697 based on the first 76 games of the year. Click below for a game-by-game breakdown of Week Five.

Games on Sunday, October 11th, 2009

Cleveland Browns (1-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-4)
My Pick: Buffalo Bills
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Bills
Result: Browns win 6-3
My Record: 0-1
Reaction: Derek Anderson completed two passes in the entire game, the only points scored were on field goals, and the Bills managed to lose despite out-gaining the Browns on offense by nearly a hundred yards. As bad as things are going in Cleveland this year, there’s a solid argument that the season is going even worse in Buffalo. After a great opening night showing against New England, the Bills have gotten progressively worse since their lone win in Week Two. The Browns, on the other hand, have been bad all year; this weekend’s win was merely the result of finding someone even worse off.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Detroit Lions (1-4)
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Steelers
Result: Steelers win 28-20
My Record: 1-1
Reaction: Even if the Lions had Matt Stafford at quarterback instead of backup Daunte Culpepper, they still wouldn’t have stood much of a chance against Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger threw for a season-high three touchdowns in the game and, despite an interception returned for a touchdown, led the Steelers to a pretty easy victory. No big surprise here.

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-5)
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Cowboys
Result: Cowboys win 26-20 in OT
My Record: 2-1
Reaction: The Cowboys are not a very solid team this year. Even against the miserable Chiefs, Dallas needed overtime to pull out a victory. Tony Romo put up a solid game, but the Cowboys defense has to be looked at as suspect for allowing Kansas City to put 20 points on the board, including a late touchdown to tie up the game. Kudos to former Patriot linebacker Mike Vrabel for picking up another touchdown catch in the losing effort.

Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-5)
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Vikings
Result: Vikings win 38-10
My Record: 3-1
Reaction: There are a handful of really bad teams in the NFL this year, and the St. Louis Rams can count themselves among them. The Vikings, on the other hand, are undefeated with a good lead on their NFC North competition. Another easy victory for Minnesota here, which may ease the pain of Twins fans after the Yankees completed their ALDS sweep on Sunday night.

Oakland Raiders (1-4) at New York Giants (5-0)
My Pick: New York Giants
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Giants
Result: Giants win 44-7
My Record: 4-1
Reaction: So much for concerns about whether Eli Manning would be able to play or not. The game was decided so early on that backup quarterback David Carr was able to come in to play about half of the game. The Raiders are another one of the really bad teams, and the Giants are undefeated and not likely to face trouble from a team like Oakland. It’s amazing that JaMarcus Russell still has a starting quarterback job after a 100-yard-passing performance.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Eagles
Result: Eagles win 33-14
My Record: 5-1
Reaction: A healthy and rested Donovan McNabb wasn’t necessary for an Eagles win over the Buccaneers, but Philadelphia fans have to be happy to see him back under center, even with strong performances from Kevin Kolb in relief. McNabb picked up right where he left off with a three touchdown performance and the Eagles took a very easy win coming off their “Bye” week.

Washington Redskins (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
My Pick: Carolina Panthers
My Group’s Picks: 1 for Redskins, 1 for Panthers
Result: Panthers win 20-17
My Record: 6-1
Reaction: The Redskins may be the worst team in the NFL with two wins right now; a terrible Panthers team coming off of their “Bye” week was able to take advantage of a bad Washington team for their first victory of the year. The Redskins even had a 17-2 lead shortly into the third quarter and watched it slip away from them as the Panthers were able to storm back for a come-from-behind win at home. Just ugly.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Ravens
Result: Bengals win 17-14
My Record: 6-2
Reaction: Yikes; the Bengals might just be for real. Another late-game comeback, another slate of questionable calls against the Ravens, and all of a sudden Cincinnati is on top of the AFC North and the Ravens are a game behind them. Definitely a continuing unexpected start from the Bengals, a team that was terrible last year and wasn’t projected to get any better this year. As for the Ravens, two tough losses after a 3-0 start means that they’re going to have to take some time to reevaluate where they are and figure out how to get back in the win column.

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers
My Group’s Picks: 2 for 49ers
Result: Falcons win 45-10
My Record: 6-3
Reaction: I didn’t think the Falcons’ “Bye” week had come at an opportune time for them, but I was very wrong. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner tore apart what had looked to be a strong 49ers defense, and San Francisco got toasted at home. The 49ers had become a very fashionable NFC pick after a hot start to the season, but Atlanta definitely cooled them off with this blowout victory.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Jaguars
Result: Seahawks win 41-0
My Record: 6-4
Reaction: Wow. As a Seahawks fan, I’m glad that Seattle was able to take the Jaguars apart like they did, but I am really surprised how poorly Jacksonville played after nearly everyone picked them for a win on the road. The return of Matt Hasselbeck did wonders for the Seahawks offense and the defense held a great rushing attack for the Jaguars to under 40 yards of rushing offense. For at least one afternoon, Matt Hasselbeck was playing the role of Drew Brees in dismantling the Jaguars.

Houston Texans (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals
My Group’s Picks: 1 for Texans, 1 for Cardinals
Result: Cardinals win 28-21
My Record: 7-4
Reaction: Arizona seemed to have the game well in hand at the end of the third quarter, but a sudden stalling in the offense necessitated the Cardinals defense stepping up to win the game. After letting the game get tied in the fourth quarter, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie picked off Matt Schaub for a 49 yard intereception return and the Cardinals defense held on with a goal-line stand as the clock wound down to escape with a 7-point victory. Good show by that defense, but the offense will need to be better in coming weeks. As for the Texans; what’s new? They keep going back and forth in the win-loss column.

New England Patriots (3-2) at Denver Broncos (5-0)
My Pick: New England Patriots
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Patriots
Result: Broncos win 20-17 in OT
My Record: 7-5
Reaction: With a 17-10 lead going into the fourth quarter, it appeared that the Patriots were about to put a halt to the Broncos’ undefeated run to start the season. Instead, on the same day that Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon blew a save to put Boston out of the baseball playoffs, the Patriots yielded the lead and then the game in overtime to Kyle Orton and the Broncos. A costly Stephen Gostkowski missed field goal in the third quarter represented the last time the Patriots even made it within scoring range. The Broncos would appear to be very much for real, and the Patriots will need to regroup after this latest setback..

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-5)
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Colts
Result: Colts win 31-9
My Record: 8-5
Reaction: You have to feel bad for the Tennessee Titans and their fans. A 13-3 season last year has turned into an 0-5 start this year, and this latest loss to Peyton Manning was one of the most one-sided of their season so far. The Colts were scoring pretty much at will, which has been the case for each of their last few games, and the season debut of Titan’s backup quarterback Vince Young (in relief of starter Kerry Collins) resulted in three incompletions and a six yard rush. It’ll be difficult for the Titans to turn things around at this point, given their divisional losses and winless record.

Game on Monday, October 12th, 2009

New York Jets (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
My Pick: New York Jets
Tie-breaker (Each team’s score): Jets 24, Dolphins 17
My Group’s Picks: 2 for Jets
Result: Dolphins win, 31-27
My Record: 8-6
Reaction: What a crazy game; there were five touchdowns scored in the fourth quarter alone, with the Jets and the Dolphins trading leads until Ronnie Brown’s rushing touchdown with six seconds left on the clock. Mark Sanchez played well in a rebound from a bad game against New Orleans, but he didn’t play well enough to put New York up over Chad Henne and the Dolphins’ Wildcat offense. Two straight losses for the Jets bring them back down to earth a bit, while two straight wins for the Dolphins put them right back in the hunt in the AFC East.

Final Week Five Breakdown
Record: 8-6 (Winning %: .571
Overall Record: 53-23 (Winning %: .697)

Upset Watch Results

• 1. Browns @ Bills; Browns win, 0-1
• 2. Redskins @ Panthers; Panthers win, 1-1
• 3. Bengals @ Ravens; Bengals win, 1-2
• 4. Falcons @ 49ers; Falcons win, 1-3
• 5. Jaguars @ Seahawks; Seahawks win, 1-4
• 6. Texans @ Cardinals; Cardinals win, 2-4
• 7. Patriots @ Broncos; Broncos win, 2-5
• 8. Jets @ Dolphins; Dolphins win, 2-6

Overall Comments
And it’s that 2-6 record in the Upset Watch Games that really tells the story of my sub-par Week Five. It’s tough to have eight games in a 14-game week that you’re concerned about pick-wise, and while I’ve been able to break even in the past, this weekend did not go nearly as well.

A few of those games were just real toss-ups either way before the games were played and I had to make an informed decision based on my research. The Browns-Bills match-up was as predictable as a coin toss, nobody expected the Bengals to upset the Ravens, the Falcons-49ers was another too close to call, nobody had any faith in Seattle, and people generally thought that the Patriots and Jets would be road victors. Because these things did not come to pass, it isn’t just my scorecard that looks anemic this weekend; everyone got rocked by upsets.

Sadly, picks for Week Six don’t look any clearer at first glance. Check out the slate of games below.

Week Six Match-ups
“Bye” Weeks: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins & San Francisco 49ers

Games on Sunday, October 18th

• Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals — Real tough pick; Texans are “due” for a win and the Bengals are hot.
• Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers — Leaning towards Packers.
• Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings — Real tough pick; Ravens have faltered but are strong, Vikings are still undefeated.
• New York Giants at New Orleans Saints — Real tough pick; clash of the undefeateds.
• Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Leaning towards Steelers.
• Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Could be tough; Panthers showed resilience in their first win of the year, Buccaneers still looking for theirs.
• Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins — Could be tough; Chiefs pushed the Cowboys to the brink while the Redskins gave up a 17-2 lead to lose to Carolina.
• St. Louis Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars — Leaning towards Jaguars.
• Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks — Could be tough; Seahawks are back in action behind Matt Hasselbeck, while the Cardinals defense had a gritty showing against Houston.
• Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders — Leaning towards Eagles.
• Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots — Leaning towards Patriots.
• Buffalo Bills at New York Jets — Leaning towards Jets.
• Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons — Real tough pick; Falcons came off their “Bye” week looking great, but the Bears will be coming off their own “Bye” week heading into this match-up.

Game on Monday, October 19th

• Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers — Real tough pick; Broncos would appear to be for real after a 5-0 start and wins over Dallas and New England, but now they face the reigning AFC West champions.

Pick Difficulty Breakdown

• Fairly easy: 6 picks.
• Could be tough: 3 picks.
• Real tough: 5 picks.

And, finally, an updated show of where my picks stand against the expert pickers of ESPN.com and FoxSports.com. Note that Ron Jaworski (who doesn’t pick MNF games because he announces them) and Mike Golic (who missed one MNF pick for the same reason) are ranked based on their winning percentages.

• 1. Chris Mortensen (ESPN) — 58-18 — .763
• 2. John Czarnecki (FOX) — 56-20 — .737
• 3. Adam Schefter (ESPN) — 55-21 — .724
• 4. Ron Jaworski (ESPN) — 51-20 — .718
• 5. Jay Glazer (FOX) — 54-22 — .711
• 5. Merrill Hoge (ESPN) — 54-22 — .711
• 7. Brian’s NFL Pick ‘Em — 53-23 — .697
• 7. Mark Schlereth (ESPN) — 53-23 — .697
• 7. Seth Wickersham (ESPN) — 53-26 — .697
• 10. Mike Golic (ESPN) — 51-24 — .680
• 11. Alex Marvez (FOX) — 51-25 — .671
• 11. Adam Schein (FOX) — 51-25 — .671
• 13. Peter Schrager (FOX) — 50-26 — .658
• 14. Adrian Hasenmayer (FOX) — 47-29 — .618
• 14. Eric Allen (ESPN) — 47-29 — .618

Thank you all for joining me this week, and I look forward to seeing you again this Friday when my picks for Week Six go live!

On this episode of The Wheelhouse: Bower and “The Sweet Nasty” Chris Cause kick off the WEEKEND STRIPDOWN by looking at the pre-season game of one of the greatest rivalry’s in the NFL! You know, the DENVER BRONCOS vs. the CHICAGO BEARS! (Wait, what?) Then we hand out our greatest teammate award for the week by giving it to Broncos wide reciever BRANDON MARSHALL! The boys then decide to sign up “The Champ” Jeff Peck for the greatest contest since American Idol…the chance to TWEET FOR CHAD OCHO CINCO! Finally we wonder who bought Ontario Smith’s WHIZZINATOR for $750 & how important a product like this is important to the American Economy!

Download the Podcast – HERE!

Just when you thought it was over…..he’s back….

Just when you thought it was over, Brett Favre is back in the news and not only that but it looks like he is going to be a member of the Minnesota Vikings. That is if you believe the latest reports that are “leaking” out of Vikings camp.

The Brett Favre rumors are still alive. Monday, Jay Glazer of Fox Sports said he believes Favre will join the Minnesota Vikings in the next few weeks.

That’s Glazer’s prediction — and opinion — after spending some time with the

Brett Favre could be on the Vikings soon

Vikings at training camp.

Glazer quotes an unnamed player saying, “I’m telling you, it’s already done. Right after the Indy game. I don’t think anyone here doesn’t think that.”

He says another player told him, “I don’t know if it’s done but I think he’ll be in here by the third preseason game.”

Glazer also said Favre is still working out and keeping in touch with members of the Vikings via text message.

Favre’s agent Bus Cook told the Pioneer Press he didn’t know anything about Glazer’s story.

Jay Glazer goes on to make some quality points on why Brett Favre can be coming to the Vikings and playing this year. As much as we are all sick of hearing about this story it is not going away and it looks like Favre could be the best option for quarterback after seeing what the Vikings have in place right now.

When you look at it from afar it really does make sense. The Vikings have let Favre call the shots from the start of this and one thing for sure is that Favre does not like training camp. This would also play up the role of the dramatic return for Farve and the spotlight he craves so much.

Outside of Bears and Packer fans this could make things very interesting in the NFL this year. As always with any news on Brett Favre, stay tuned…….

PICK 15 Contest: Can you pick winners? Go to Bet Jamaica or click this banner and have a chance of winning $1.1 million in prizes!

The Bet Jamaica pick 15 contest! I am looking for sports bettors that like to pick football games. The contest is simple just pick 15 games between college football and pro football and whoever has the most wins will get cash!

Then after you sign up join my group.

My group is called Regaw World and the password is pickfootball.

The more the players the better, so come and see if you can predict the ost winners this football season!

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Arizona - Arizona Cardinals quarterback Matt Leinart and FOX’s Jay Glazer joined the show to discuss Leinart’s mental and physical makeover. Glazer is training Leinart in mixed martial arts.Apparently, Glazer did the same for the Vikings’ Jared Allen in the past as well.

Glazer said he’s trying to get Leinart to push through barriers. He tries to make the QB throw up and quit every day. “We push him so hard to get him to break down,” Glazer said. Glazer didn’t think Leinart would come back for a second day, because usually no one does. But Leinart did. -SI.com

What the fuck…I didn’t know Jay Glazer was such an MMA enthusiast? I just thought he was an awful announcer and columnist. He looks like an egg with a goatee. When I saw this story I thought it was retarded, then I figured, what the hell, it keeps him in shape and will help sweat out the booze. I don’t really know how much this is going to help him as a QB though; they say it’s mostly a mental thing, to me it seems more like a PR thing. It’s like charity work; when you make a grand production out of it who does it really turn out to benefit more. There are probably a ton of players out there that train in unorthodox ways; you don’t necessarily see camera crews following them around. Just stick to chasing the coed’s skirt Matt… it seems to suit you a little better….shit better yet, bring Jay along.

Points of Interest is the daily link dump for your morning or afternoon commute in and out of Souvenir City.  We’ll be throwing together some other stops from out there in blogdome and the interwebs to peak your interest.  Some of them will actually be what some might consider educational.  Most of them, are going to everything but that.

NBA Finals Game 2.  The Stanley Cup could be carried around the ice in Pittsburgh tonight (we hope not).  The MLB Draft is at 6 p.m.  There’s a lot going on today.  If you’ve ever seen the show Chuck then you know that’s Yvonne Strahovski.  We also thought she kinda flew under the radar.  If there’s any blips out there that we missed, send ‘em to SouvenirCityBlog@gmail.com.

California might completely disband any form of welfare, those crazy radicals…..The new iPhones hit store in a few weeks, we’re upgrading from our Blackberry finally……The last two legs of the newspaper empire are finally feeling the pain……Where we found this, it was labeled as PARTS OF US TO HAVE YEAR WITHOUT SUMMER, it doesn’t sound like the sky is falling to us….

• This sport, now bigger than boxing in Philadelphia.  Actually, we can’t prove that. But, I’ll put $5 on it.  (Uncoached via Hova)
• A case for Yao Ming as the answer to all of General Motors problems  (Style Points)
• For today’s MLB Draft, Jon Heyman has his input on Stephen Strasburg against the Nationals. (SI)
• The think-tank at MLBTR attempt to find a market for 43-year-old Tom Glavine.  NL East just to spite the Bravos?  (MLBTR)
• If there is a former Hawkeye somehow involved, we’ll link it.  We had Bob Sanders hit club t-shirts in college.  (Fanhouse)
• Noticed this about two weeks ago but Deadspin is the first to put in on the internet.  Why is Green Day the ESPN soundtrack? (Deadspin)
• Finally, resolution to Tony LaRussa’s personal Twitter hell.  They should have dragged it out through the summer. (Walkoff Walk)
• This is an oldie-but-a-goodie.  TBL’s interview with Jay Glazer. We had no idea that he’s such an MMA freak.  He’s training Matt Leinart, actually. (The Big Lead)

Video: Leinart ‘Fights’ for a job

As a bit of a primer this week, I wanted to expand upon the information I give in my “Picks” blogs. I’ll go line-by-line through the information I provide for each pick to explain things.

Favorite (Fan Picks): This information is taken from the status bars on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em pick cards. When you select your picks (as I do) each week, a bar is placed next to each team’s name in the match-up. The more green is in the bar, the more people have selected that team to win. Whoever has the greener bar is the Favorite for this line.

Favorite (ESPN.com Simulations): On the game preview pages on ESPN.com (accessible from here), the ESPN Accuscore Game Forecast is displayed as opposing arrows depicting which team has fared better in simulations. Whoever has the higher winning percentage is the Favorite for this line.

Favorite (WhatIfSports.com Simulations) WhatIfSports.com uses algorithims to generate results of each NFL game over 10,000 times each week here. The team winning the higher percentage of those simulations is the Favorite for this line.

ESPN Pro Picks: A slate of ESPN football analysts also pick the games through ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘Em, usually on Thursday or Friday before the weekend. These picks are available from ESPN.com; the pickers are Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Merrill Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth and Seth Wickersham.

Fox Sports Pro Picks: FoxSports.com also has football analysts picking the game each week, though the article is usually tougher to find and posted later in the day on Friday. If you don’t find any data in this line when my “Picks” post goes live, that means I either wasn’t able to find the FoxSports.com picks or they weren’t online yet; if I find them, they’ll be added after the posting. The pickers here are Jay Glazer, Alex Marvez, John Czarnecki, Adam Schein, Peter Schrager and Adrian Hasenmeyer.

Edit: I have added one more research tool to my list, though it is one I don’t put a lot of personal stock in.
Madden 2010 Simulation: Every week, ESPN.com’s Video Games section simulates the results of every game for the week and post the results here. I don’t have numbers on how often the simulations prove correct, but knowing the fallacies of Madden 2010 as a predicting device leaves me hesitant to trust its picks if it was my only research source.

I use a combination of these research assets along with my own personal evaluations of each team and the circumstances of the game to be played when I lock in my own picks on Friday afternoon. Sometimes my picks end up following the majority consensus about a particular game, and sometimes they fly in the face of the logic I have at my disposal. All of it may seem a bit complicated for somebody who isn’t getting paid to blog about his NFL picks, but I take the task pretty seriously each week and lament every lost pick even as I’ve put up four consecutive 10-plus-win weeks so far this season.

For fun, how I stack up against the ESPN.com experts and the FoxSports.com experts:

ESPN.com

• 1. Chris Mortensen — 48-14
• 2. Adam Schefter — 46-16
• 3. Brian’s NFL Pick ‘Em — 45-17
• 4. Mike Golic — 43-18 (missed one MNF pick because he called the game on ESPN)
• 5. Merrill Hoge — 43-19
• 6. Mark Schlereth — 43-19
• 7. Seth Wickerhsam — 43-19
• 8. Ron Jaworski — 42-16 (does not pick MNF games because he calls them on ESPN)
• 9. Eric Allen — 39-23

FoxSports.com

• 1. John Czarnecki — 46-16
• 2. Brian’s NFL Pick ‘Em — 45-17
• 3. Jay Glazer — 44-18
• 4. Adam Schein — 43-19
• 5. Alex Marvez — 43-19
• 6. Peter Schrager — 43-19
• 7. Adrian Hasenmayer — 38-24

Check back Friday afternoon (October 9th) to see the results of this research in helping me make my NFL 2009 Week Five Picks!