I’ve just finished updating my “Jobsearch Diary”, so I thought I’d take a few minutes to post a few thoughts about the process, and some thoughts on the role of external New Deal Providers, when it comes to effective jobsearching…

Firstly, a little bit of background. When you first sign-on, aside from filling out a small forrests’ worth of paperwork, which includes a Jobseeker’s Agreement (Something I hope to address in the near future) you’re also “encouraged” to keep a JobSeekers Diary, or an E4JP. I say “encouraged” because on some peoples Agreement it’s a “suggested” action, where as on other peoples’ it’s actually a requirement.

Either way, when you attend the Jobcentre, to sign-on, you’re supposed to satisfy the person “on the other side of the desk” that you’ve been actively looking for work, and one of the easiest ways todo this, is to complete the JobSeekers Diary.

Now personally, I don’t use the supplied ES4JP, I use a series of notebooks. I’ve had a few negative comments about this, from a certain member of staff, however, at the end of the day, there isn’t really anything he can do about it, as I’m providing them with a written record of my jobsearch activities. (This particular memberof staff just flat out doesn’t like me, however, as my signing-on time has changed recently, I don’t “run the gauntlett” that I might have to deal with him, anymore)

So what exactly are the Jobsearch requirements? Again these will differ from person to person, but from my own personal point of view, these are the requirements that I have to meet:

• Write to at least 2 employers per week.
• Contact Jobseeker Direct at least once per week.
• Ask Family, Friends and People I have worked with before.
• Look in the local newspaper each Thursday (Job Night for that particular paper).

Now “Contact Jobseeker Direct…“, is an interesting point. I’ve never actually agreed to that action, as I don’t see the point of phoning an 0845 number, which costs 4p per minute, with a 7p “setup” cost, just for a callcentre operative to suggest vacancies for me, that are listed on the Jobcentre Plus website. Which I access regularly, from home. The JobCentre staff will happily inform you that you can use the phones within the Jobcentre to contact JobSeekers Direct for free, however, realistically, trying to jobsearch in a busy Jobcentre simply isn’t practical.

As a result, my Jobseeker’s Agreement does contain my signature, however it also contains a note from myself that I won’t access the service, but that instead I’ll satisfy the requirement for weekly “Jobcentre” contact, by utilising their wonderful (sarcasm) website. Said note is also signed by the original member of staff who completed my JobSeekers’ Agreement, so I think I’m covered.

Now of course, that’s all fine and well, but what, exactly, do I do, week after week, as part of my jobsearch? Well rather than post suggestions, I’ll post my actual jobsearch activities, for the last two weeks:

17-09-09: Attended Jobcentre to sign-on
17-09-09: Looked in local newspaper for vacancies. There were two that I will apply for
18-09-09: Applied for Financial Services Administrator vacancy. Send CV+Cover letter, through to company.
18-09-09: Applied for General Warehouse Person vacancy. Send CV+Cover letter, through to company.

21-09-09: Accessed the Jobcentre Plus Website. Found details on three vacancies that I will apply for.
22-09-09: Applied for the Following Vacancies:

• DUA/43406 (Office Administrator. Sent CV+Cover letter, through to company)
• HOW/8681 (Warehouse Operative. Sent CV+over letter, through to company, via e-mail)
• OLD/31041 (Receptionist. Sent CV+Cover letter, through to company, via e-mail)

22-09-09: Looked in local newspaper, for vacancies. All those listed were in areas / fields that, due to legal restrictions, I am unable to persue¹

24-09-09: Looked in local newspaper, for vacancies. There were two vacancies that I will apply for
25-09-09: Applied for Office Administrator vacancy. Sent CV+Cover letter, to company.
25-09-09: Applied for Receptionist vacancy. Sent CV+Cover letter, to company.

28-09-09: Accessed the Jobcentre Plus website. Found details on 4 vacancies that I will apply for.
29-09-09: Applied for the following vacancies:

• STS/46808 (Admin Assistant. Sent CV+Cover letter to company)
• TIP/24633 (Accounts Clerk. Sent CV+Cover letter to company)
• STS/46818 (Membership Officer. Sent CV+Cover letter to company, via e-mail)
• WOL.93983 (Receptionist. Sent CV+Cover letter to company)

29-09-09: Looked in local newspaper, for vacancies. All those listed were in areas / fields that, due to legal restrictions, I am unable to persue¹

¹:The vacancies listed in my local paper, on a Tuesday evening, are always either vacancies that are available through various recruitment agencies, or vacancies at the local Council. Due to the legal restrictions placed on me by the Police & Probation Services, I can’t currently work through an agency, as any potential employer has to be vetted beforehand, so as to ensure that any job there, is appropriate (in other words, that there isn’t the potential to me to start WW3 should I feel like it – that line in and of itself is deserving of an entry ). With regards to the local council, I applied for a vacancy there once, got through to the final selection stage, and was asked if I’d got any criminal convictions. 45 mins later I was asked to leave, and it was “suggested” I not apply for any more vacancies within the local Council.

So that’s an honest indiciation of the steps that I take, to look for work, every two weeks. In total there are 11 “Actionable steps”, as I believe is the terminology.The last two weeks aren’t anything particularly special – I’ve had a look through my notebook, and I tend to average 11 – 14 “steps” per fortnight. Which compared against my “Jobcentre” mantaded actions:

• Write to at least 2 employers per week.
• Contact Jobseeker Direct at least once per week.
• Ask Family, Friends and People I have worked with Before.
• Look in the local newspaper each Thursday (Job Night for that paper).

Comes out favourably, I think. Indeed my argument isn’t that the Jobcentre have every suggested, directly, that I’m not doing enough – Usually the member of staff I’m “Signing-on” with will comment that my jobsearch is either “very good” or “more than good”, it’s the fact that it’s being suggested indirectly, in the form of my referrals either to New Deal (or Flexible New Deal, as may be the case depending on the outcome of my meeting next Monday), or as was recently the case, my referral to the “Programme Centre”.

The previous New Deal scheme contained a “Focused Jobsearch” element, during which I, and I’m pretty sure everyone else who has been through New Deal, was reguired to attend a specific “Jobsearch focused” course. As part of this course, “particpants” are supposed to undertake “intense” jobsearch, and be provided with help, by the external provider running the course.

My latest experience with this kind of “focused jobsearch” came earlier on this year, when I was required to attend “Programme Centre”, a recently developed course, that’s run by PPDG (PerTemp People Development Group).

The recession is bad news for anyone looking to get a job, save some money or sell a house. But it’s great news for fashionistas! Stores that were once dowdy and just screamed “crazy cat lady” are bringing in new designers to create chic lines at lower prices.

Take JC Penney. When was the last time you stopped in there (not counting those post-Starbucks bathroom emergencies)? I know: never. Because their clothes were cheap, outdated and just not cute. Well, that’s not the case anymore! JCP now sells several lines by popular designers (Charlotte Ronson, Nicole Miller, and Allen B. Schwartz, to name a few) and they not only have stuff that is totes cute, it’s totes affordable as well.  I can’t wait to add some of these pieces to my closet…

It’s no secret I am lovin’ all the plaid that’s out right now, and I think this shirt is particularly cute.  Reminiscent of a  lumberjack, with just the right amount of girliness to look feminine and fab.

This skirt is a great addition to your fall wardrobe, as it can be worn bare-legged or with a pair of tights.  Because of the simplicity of the skirt, you can have some fun by amping things up with a funky printed shirt, bold accessories or textured, printed or bold colored tights.

I love the print and details (belted waistline and ruffles) of this dress and, again, it’ll transfer over to colder weather with tights and a cardi or sweater coat.  It’ll look great with flats, boots or a pair of menswear inspired oxfords.

I think this tunic is totally adorable with its cut and flowy chiffon. Or perhaps because I have an affinity for owls thanks to Harry Potter…

Flowy tanks are not only trendy, they’re versatile and they’re great for these transitional months because you can easily layer with ‘em.  This’ll look especially cute with a boyfriend blazer and the bonus is that you can slip it off when you’re in a warm place and still look totally stylin’.

Fall/Winter is all about neutrals, which means grey jeans are a great way to wear denim with a bit of a twist. You can rock grey with black or the popular jewel tones of the season.  And hey, who doesn’t love jeans that are under $15?

Winter is fast-approaching and soon it’ll be time to bust out the scarves, mittens and hats soon.  Houndstooth is a timeless print that translates over for every season and is a great way to add a bit of oomph to your cold weather ensemble without going overboard. And you can get it in four different colors, which makes it that much cooler.

I’m all for wearing an all-black ensemble out to the bar, but only if there is something fun and fabulous to spice it up. Like this bag. Snakeskin, a metal handle, and a hot mixture of gold and black is the perfect combo to add some va-va-voom to your otherwise neutral look.

Measurements from online research site Experian Hitwise show that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has been the most visited e-commerce site during the holiday shopping season since 2006. It is in the process of extending that lead and its dominance of the category.

Hitwise reports that visits to the top 500 e-commerce sites actually dropped 9% this “Cyber Monday” compared with the same day last year.

Over 15.5% of the visits to those 500 sites were to Amazon.com. Walmart.com (NYSE:WMT) followed with 9.5%. The next three sites were Target (NYSE:TGT) which had 5.1% of visits, Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) with 3.6%, and JC Penney (NYSE:JCP) with 2.6%.

The data shows once again how a few companies dominate online shopping and how small the prospects are for their competition. Visits to Kohls’ website were only1.5% of total traffic to the top 500 sites. Visits to the Macy’s (NYSE:M) site were less that 1.4%. Large retail operations including Nordstrom (NYSE:JWM) and Gap (NYSE:GPS) did not make the list at all.

If online shopping is critical to the fate of the largest retailers in the US, some of them are already in trouble this year.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Reuters:   Japan raised the idea that the G7 make a statement about the dollar.

Reuters:   Shoppers move into Black Friday with small budgets.

Reuters:   Dubai’s debt crisis raised the prospect of more trouble in the financial markets.

Reuters:   ING will make a $11 billion rights offering at a large discount.

Reuters:   One of the German states called Opel job cut plans “unacceptable”.

Reuters:   Tighter capital controls are emerging in Asia.

WSJ:   Large Wall St. firms are beginning to fund M&A deals again.

WSJ:   Sony (NYSE:SNE) is betting on 3D TV sales.

WSJ:   The Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone will be sold in Korea.

WSJ:   Data show that the sharp recession may not, in the current case, be followed by a sharp recovery.

WSJ:   Big retailers like Target (NYSE:TGT), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) and JC Penney (NYSE:JCP) have put sales online early to simulate traffic.

WSJ:   Video game sales are running out of momentum as holiday begin.

WSJ:   China is facing a protectionist backlash next year according to one organization.

FT:   Black Friday retail marketing is turning to social networks.

Bloomberg:   RBS (NYSE:RBS) has large exposure to Dubai debt.

Bloomberg:   Shipping prices could drop another year.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Like the markets around the globe I’m taken by surprise by the Dubai’s announcement of a six-month standstill of its Dubai World’s debt. From the initial estimate European banks may have $40billion of exposure to Dubai with HSBC and Standard and Charter having the biggest slice.

When we thought all the worst is all behind us here comes another hit to investors’ confident. It may result into a exodus from the equity markets and flow of funds into safe haven such as gold, Japanese Yen, US dollar and bonds.

I’m keeping a close eye on the JCP order when the US market re-open for half day tomorrow. I expect strong reactions from the US market to the Dubai news.

JCP (6Month Daily)

JCP (20Day 4Hour)

J.C. Penney (JCP) – BUY: 30.404 / R1: 31.82 / S1: 28.50

I have been following up with this one for couple of days waiting for the MACD to come closer together on the 6 month chart. Even though MACD on the 6 month is still not completely crossed but I like the fact that:
1/ on the 4 hour chart both the MACD and EMA 5 have crossed.
2/ seems to have hit a strong support around 28.50 on the 6month.

Since tomorrow is Thanksgiving, come back on Friday for an update on this trade.

So I forgot that I have a meeting tonight, tomorrow night, and then Wednesday I head north for the weekend. So my posts will be short and sweet. I don’t think you will see much from me Wed – Thur unless I have an inspiration of some sort. Perhaps I will throw up a couple of my favorite videos for you to munch on. I will try to do a post tomorrow night, but like I said I have a meeting that usually lasts till about 10 pm AK time or 0200 hrs. New York time.

I expected an up day today, but I did not expect a mega up day like we had. I did not expect the DOW to make a new high, but it sure did. Now, I know this is not a big deal, or perhaps it is, but it is things like this that irritate me. It is either blatant ignorance or blatant propaganda, but none-the-less, throughout the day I saw this headline popping up.

Now if am not mistaken( I am not) , the housing numbers came out at 10 am mkt. time. So let’s look at a thirty minute chart:

The housing news came out at the high of the day, I know I was watching. The mkt. pretty much sold off from there, despite the “great” housing numbers. Now what does this have to do with all the tea in China? Well it does affect sentiment, not on us traders, but on the headliners, the people who read just headlines or watch Letterman and Leno for their news; Basically, overall sentiment. I don’t think it is a huge deal, just one of those little irritants that we all have, or maybe it is just me. Anyway, one thing it does show is that this mkt. continues, for the most part, to rally on bad news and sell on good news. On to some real “news”:

The VIX dropped to another low, despite me thinking that the bottom trend would hold. However, check out that support line I drew last week, it held up rear pretty. We could easily see a bounce off of this support.

This is a weekly chart of the DOW. I put it on here because it just so happened to rally right into my down trend line that started in Oct of 07. This would be another good area for some resistance, the next beyond this will be over 11, 000, but looking at the other indices, I don’t think we are headed there just yet.

Again, as I said in the video, I expected an up day today, just not this much up. However, the DOW, despite being the lowest of the three percentage wise, seemed a little stronger to me today. It was the only one that made a new high. You can see the SPX got close, but pulled back. In the note above, I point out that we had a similar day in about the same place in all these moves. In fact, the last move down, we actually made a new high, but then sold off strong the rest of the day closing lower.

The NAS rallied right into resistance in the form of the bottom of our short-term up trend. We ended the day selling off and leaving a decent top wick. Further, we now have another gap that will desire to be filled.

The UUP broke down again with an almost exact doji star as last week. That star lead to a nice gap up, and I will be looking for more of the same here.

The TLT found some support on the 20 ma, but is beneath a weak down trend line. It may make a move to fill that gap, but it looks like it is wanting to bounce from here. Again, the 200 ma looms overhead.

Most of the sectors were running high into resistance, but the XBI, seen here, found some support on the 200 ma. Further, v has been declining into this down move. However, I would have liked to have seen a white candle here today. Overall, this looks like a potential inverse head and shoulders if this thing bounces. If the 200 ma gives way, this should be a great short.

Going against my trusty Stock Almanac, I entered a couple of Jan put positions today. This was one of them. I like a lot about this chart and about today’s action. I will use yesterday’s high as my stop.

The other one was from a chart I posted a few days ago. I like this because it is completely different that WSM in that it is not at a high but in a down trend with a mini bear flag breaking support. I think we may stall out on the 200 ma, but I will be tempted to hold and see if it gives way.

In closing: Most of the charts I looked at tonight were against some type of resistance, including most sectors. As expected v is low, we have a lot more news coming out Tues and Wed, and that is a recipe for volatility. History says we will likely go up into Thanksgiving, but the charts seem to be saying else wise to me. I am going with the charts. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

I will post more charts on TWITTER.

Once again we fly off to new highs on most indexes. There was no true direction all day today, but we managed to close a little higher, again on weak v. Early in the day the UUP and the VIX were both up, and the UUP managed to stay up, but the VIX finally gave up its gains. Once again the TLT finished up nearly 1/2 percent. The weak sectors seemed to be housing, consumer discretionary, and utilities, while materials, and banks seemed to have some strength. Definitely not a strong up move, but an up move none-the-less. Let’s look at some charts:

This is a 60 min. chart of the VIX. I show this to illustrate how it opened sideways and then began losing steam an hour into the day dropping slowly all day, with an up move the last 1/2 of the day. We have now formed a new wedge on the D chart, and you can see the support line forming here on this chart. I will be looking for a move up from here, even though we took out my 22.77 support. On the D chart we have a hammer on the support.

We are still in a bearish divergence on the DOW. It really looked like we were topping 5 days ago, but we surged right past my 10360 and are headed right towards the top of the range. Note the low of the day, 10360 ( oh all right it was 10361.99, you guys are tough). I really expected that 10360 to offer a lot more resistance, especially in light of the divergence, but it is all the SPX’s fault.

You see the SPX refuses to hit 1120! If the SPX had rallied up to 1120 about the same time the DOW hit 10360, we would have been primed for a sell off. All this for a measly 10 points! Now though, the market makers are going to try to stick it to the option traders, so this mkt. will be manipulated as much as possible the next few days to cause as much pain as possible for us option traders ( at least those holding November).

Even my coveted NASDAQ gave up the ghost on me and alas we have yet another failed head and shoulders pattern and a new high. Sigh. The last move up from high to high was 27 points, if that holds we should top near 2219. But, that is a very loose guide and we could see a reversal anytime, but we will likely find support on that new short-term trend line that was broken once.

A very strong day yesterday on the RUT, but a pretty decent reversal candle today. The 20 ma appears to still be heading down, and the RSI is looking to make another lower high.

After yesterday’s complete disregard for my beautiful support at 22.30, The UUP finally screwed its head on straight and move back above it, even though the mkt. was up. Now, for this series of higher lows on the RSI to stay in tact, we will have to continue up from here. I could see us moving up easily from here, but I think we will need to see some v to have that up move, and we sure haven’t seen that for a few days.

All right, I like these set-ups which I call cliff walkers (cliffs for short). If you want to be a little frisky you could short this to support, but the safe play will be the breach of $5. Once it hits there, it will likely bounce a little and then drop through the $5 support. I have an alert on it already.

Another cliff play on JCP. A near bearish engulfing filling a mini bear flag. If support is broke look for good short entry, with 29.50 as stop. Note the slight v increase today 2 days after earnings. Also look at the widening of the bbs.

I like this as a short because the v is decreasing, the RSI seems to be turning, it is outside the top bb, and a similar pattern emerged not too long ago, and it seemed to work out well as a short. If it does drop, then I would use the top of the range, then the gaps as my stops along the way. I will be watching this one closely tomorrow.

Are picking up a theme? I am seeing a lot of divergence charts out there people, and although you cannot tell how long they will last, the are definitely a sign that the current move is coming to an end. It also helps when you have a possible exhaustion gap followed by a hammer and hang man on resistance. The only knock is that the RSI is still heading up.

In closing: Perhaps all we need is for the bloody SPX to hit 1120 so I can see if that is what is causing this rally. I know it is not the economy, because it is in shambles and getting worse, no matter what you hear on T.V. The dollar is slowly gaining strength, money is flowing into treasuries and yet the mkt. rises on low v. I am suspicious, but I also know that these three days leading into 3f can be brutal and manipulated, so although I want badly to buy some more shorts, I shall be patient until I see confirmation ( what fun is that? ) . Trade well and let’s cheer the SPX on to 1120!

Just to make sure you don’t miss all the latest news posted to the Java Mobile & Embedded Community home page:

• Java Roadmap presented at Symbian Exchange
• Check it out: Project MaiTai – Interactive Artwork
• Samsung announces Linux smartphone OS
• Making the classic Web and intranet obsolete?
• A CNet conversation with Eric Schmidt
• Ten-hut! Snap to w/snaptu on Java ME
• Dell unveils first Android-based Mini 3 smartphone
• Java Store: Now serving payments
• Microlog V2.2.0 is available for download
• Instant (Bad) Karma: Symbian’s OS efforts
• Focus on Java Mobility – Addressing Java ME-specific matters

Cheers,

– Terrence

Some encouraging news for people who have been placed on FND – the mythical “Flexible New Deal” booklet has finally surfaced. During my initial interview with the JCP, I was told that such a booklet was available, but that it was currently only available for staff. However, it’s now available online, so if your Jobcentre “Advisor” hasn’t given you a copy, head over to the following link, where you can read it:

Flexible New Deal: What You can expect and what we expect from you (FND1 10/09) [Via Flexible-New-Deal.co.uk]

Having looked through the content, it seems identical to the version I was able to quickly browse through at the JCP, other than the date (the version I read was dated 09/09)

By Dirk Van Dijk
November 06, 2009

Earnings season is rapidly drawing to an end. There will be only 280 firms reporting next week, and only 16 of those will be members of the S&P 500. That is down from 855 firms that reported this week, including 89 S&P 500 members. Most of the major firms that will be reporting are retailers, which will be reporting fiscal periods that ended in October, not September.

Some of the most important of these are Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT), Macy’s (M) and J.C. Penney’s (JCP). Among the important non-retail firms that will report are semiconductor equipment giant Applied Materials (AMAT), Rockwell Automation (ROK) and Tesoro (TSO), the oil refiner.

The flow of economic data will slow down after the fire hose of the last week. However there are a few things to keep an eye out for. These include:

Thursday:

* (1) Weekly initial unemployment claims, which have been trending down. Last week they fell by 20,000 to 512,000. I would expect another drop, but smaller.
* (2) Oil inventories, which have recently been trending down, but are at high levels for this time of year.
* (3) The Treasury budget. The consensus is that we ran a deficit of $150 billion in October.

Friday:

The Trade numbers are due out. While the trade deficit is dramatically lower than a year ago, it has recently started to trend up again, in large part due to the rebound in oil prices. The consensus is for the deficit to rise to $31.9 billion from $30.7 billion last month. That sounds about right to me. At least the recent increases in the trade balance have come from imports rising faster than exports, rather than seeing both of them decline.

Potential Positive Surprises

Historically the best indicators of firms which are likely to report positive surprises are a recent history of positive surprises and rising estimates going into the report. Some of the companies that have these characteristics include:

J.C. Penney’s (JCP) has seen its quarterly estimate jump by 103% over the last month and last time around they posted earnings that were twice what was expected. On the other hand, because the retailers earn most of their money next quarter, with very small absolute numbers it is easy to have big percentage surprises.

Electronic Arts (ERTS) has seen its estimates for the about-to-be-reported quarter rise by 19.2% over the last month and last time out it beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 45.5%.

Applied Materials (AMAT) has seen the estimates for its quarterly earnings edge up by 3.39% over the last month and last time it posted a 66.7% surprise. However that was a smaller than expected loss of $0.03, so the percentage surprise is much less than it appears.

Just a very, very quick update. I’m currently brainstorming a few different ideas for posts, as well as collecting links for a new page (I want a seperate page full of links, as well as information, so as not to have to cram them into the side), so hopefully, over the remainder of the week, the following posts should start popping up:

1. A4e – Second Interview, Online Assessment results, and seemingly hitting a brickwall.
2. A4e – Full Induction overview, and information (I’m due to attend my half-day induction, on Friday November 6th)
3. FND and Ex-Offenders – Should Ex-Offenders be sent to “regular” FND Providers, and, perhaps more importantly – should other Clients be informed?

Article #1 might be online before the end of the day, and I’ve started a draft of #3, but #2 – The A4e induction, will have to wait until I’ve actually completed the induction

More Fashion Company News – USA

Having looked at the visitor stats over the last few days, the number of visitors has shot through the roof recently – I’m getting 10x more visitors than a few weeks ago, and so obviously I’d like to take a moment to thank everyone who has dropped by, left comments / suggestions, and to other blog  / website owners who have been kind enough to link back here – it’s really, really appreciated.

I’ve also noticed a lot of people are coming across the blog, due to searching for questions relating to the Flexible New Deal Programme itself. Because of this, I think it’s only appropriate that I put a bit of a disclaimer at the top of the blog – Basically, the posts contained within this blog relate to my experience on FND, with A4e. The experiences, arrangements, etc, may not be the same with other providers – in fact, they may even differ between individual “branches” of A4e, around the country.

I also wanted to quickly address some of the search phrases that have been used to find the site – such as “How to get out of Flexible New Deal“, as well as the various criticisms people may have, about A4e…

Firstly, with regards to how you can “get out” of going through the Flexible New Deal Process – This blog isn’t really intended to offer tips on getting out of the programme – For a start, anyone who has been around the “Blogosphere” for a while will be familiar with the horror stories regarding A4e, and their “enthuasiasm” for attempting to remove blogs / sites that are deemed to slander / defame the organisation. It isn’t my intention to do so on this blog – OK, I’ve read some of the many, many horror stories, however, I’m trying to go into the process with an open-mind. Basically, when I’m aiming to simply detail my experience with the organisation, and with their interpretation of the FND Programme. There may indeed be bad parts, and I’ll definitely be writing about them. However, just as equally, there may be good parts to the experience, and I’ll be writing about those parts as well. Although I’m clearly no journalist, I do believe in being as balanced, and ethical as possible.

Plus – given that part of this blog will address the stigma of having a criminal record – and more importantly “Being judged based on a stereotype”, it would be somewhat ironic, if I did the same with A4e – i.e. judged them on the experiences of other people.

Now, with regards getting out of FND – I guess you’d have to talk to your Jobcentre about this – I’m also guessing they’re going to recommend signing-off for 13 weeks, but I honestly don’t know.

To address the second part – The FND Programme itself. Like I mentioned in the previous paragraph, ultimately this blog will be a reflection of my experience on the programme. However, the point with FND, is that everyones experience is different (We’ll wait and see on that one ). However, What I do know, without any doubt, is that there aren’t going to be many people on FND from my background – in terms of having my prior work experience within a specific industry, and having the restrictions and complications that my record brings with it.

If people have got questions, then I’ll certainly do my best to answer them – however, at the end of the day, I’m neither the JobCentre Plus, the DWP, or any of the external providers who are tasked with delievering the FND Programme.

What I will say however, is that as we approach the 1 month mark since FND launched across the country, the level of information that’s being offered to participants, by the JobCentre, is quite, honestly, appalling. It’s not as if this scheme was brought in over the course of a weekend – they’ve been planning it for a considerable amount of time, and the fact that the JCP can’t tell clients anything about it (at least, not so far), is frankly, a disgrace.

The 2nd of three quick posts ahead of my second Flexible New Deal appointment on Tuesday, this article talks about travel costs – or, when it comes to the JCP, getting blood out of a stone…

Firstly I’ll quickly talk about A4E and Travel Costs. As far as I’m aware, when you’re referred onto FND, and by extension, an external provider, they aren’t under any obligation to refund your travel costs. Luckily for me, my FND provider, A4E are located within walking distance, however when I went for my first appointment, I decided to take the bus. Here’s what the A4E “Promotional booklet” has to say, on the issue of travel costs:

“Expenses“

“When agreeing and reviewing your My Deal plan, your Personal Career Coach will discuss the expenses you may be incurring, such as travel expenses. How much, if any, of these you can claim will be agreed and documented. You’ll need receipts or tickets as proof; you’ll collect anything that you reclaim from your A4e branch; and you’ll need to sign to confirm what you’ve received. Should you require any other support, such as childcare, please speak to your coach, who’ll take you through the system”

So, in reality how does that work? Actually, so far *touches wood* it hasn’t been all that bad (though in all fairness, I have only been to one appointment ). I brought a “Day Saver”, which allows unlimited bus travel, for £3.30, as that happened to be the cheapest way to get to A4e. aFter my interview, they made a note of the ticket number, gave me my money back, and asked me to bring it back with me, when I next attend, so they can file it, and send it through, I assume, to the JCP.

If only claiming travel expenses from the JCP directly was as simple. My “Initial” Flexible New Deal appointment took place on Monday, October 5th. According to the letter I received, because this appointment wasn’t taking place on a normal signing appointment, I would be able to claim travel expenses – Provided I attended via the cheapest method (which, much like with A4e, happened to be a Day Saver). At the end of my meeting, I mentioned this, and was told that, unfortunately, they hadn’t got any forms “to hand”, and that I needed to hold onto my ticket, bring it back to my next signin-on session, and they’d sort it out.

So, flashforward to October 15th, and after signing-on, I mentioned to the person I was dealing with (who, incidentially – was busy impressing her manager, quizzing me about my jobsearch activities – so inqusitive was she, that she forgot to transfer my details from one system to another, and as a result, my JobSeekers Allowance was delayed by a week) that I’d been told to bring my ticket in, and could I please have my £3.30? She hadn’t got a clue what was going on, and after asking her manager, she told me that “I’d need to book a special appointment, to get my money back”. So I asked her if she’d kindly book me in and she did – for a day that wasn’t during my signing-on “Day”

“Surely I’m gonna be stuck in a loop, if that happens – I’ll be coming in on a non-signing on day, to claim money for a non-signing on day?” After a bit of a think she realised this was correct, and scheduled the appointment, for October 29th.

Eventually I did get my £3.30, but only after being quizzed for 15 mins, and completing a 4 page form – talk about getting blood from a stone.

First things first – Thanks to everyone who has taken the time to drop by, post comments, links, and suggested reading articles. I’m somewhat infamous amongst friends for taking an eternity to reply to email, so I’ve gotta apologise off the bat, for any delays – I promise I’ll try and get round to them as soon as possible. If only I could get a wearable computer, I could reply to them during my morning runs – it’d certainly make them easier, especially this time of the year

I’ve had a few questions, either as replys, or by email, regarding the “Work Placement” component of Flexible New Deal. So far I haven’t been told anything by A4E themselves, about a work placement, however I picked up some of their “Promotional” literature from my local Jobcentre on Thursday, and it’s mentioned in one of the booklets  – I’ve typed up what the booklet has to say (Good Admin practice, I suppose ) and it’s after the “Read “More link… Also – just a quick heads up for anyone who copies ‘n’ Pastes the text to their own website / blog – Firstly a link back, or a reference to where it came from would be nice Secondly, you might want to run the text through a spellchecker before re-posting it – I tend to post entries, then check the spellings after.
“Stage 4 – Moving Into Work”

“…You’ll also take part in a four-week ‘Work Boost’ – This does what it says on the tin; boosts your chances of finding work. Again, we’ll tailor this to your needs and goals.

Work Boost: Just the Job

Your Work Boost is a crucial part of your Flexible New Deal programme. It’s like a dress rehersal for work; a four-week period of work experiecne to get you ready for full-time employment. You’ll find it’s great for getting into a routine again, and it’ll do wonders for your self-confidence.

Coping well with work experience shows you’ll be able to cope with employment, too. But even if the placement doesn’t work out, the feedback your Employment Coach gets from the employer can be very useful. Learning from your mistakes can be invaulable for the future. [I emphasised that part myself, because it smacks of the problem with work placements on the the "original" New Deal scheme - it was always the clients fault, never the placement provider, as I'm sure many, many former New Deal clients can, unfortunately, confirm.]

Together with your Employment Coach, you’ll decide when and where the best place to take your Work Boost will be.

What Sort of thing will I be doing in my Work Boost?

As well as experiencing what it’s like to be back in full-time employment, it’s also a great opportunity to sharpen your job-search techniques.

You can mix and match according to your needs, but the following list gives a flavour of the sort of skills you can learn:

• Training for job-search success: including CV writing, interview skills and application skills.
• Supported job-search and application activities.

Work experience:

• To gain understanding and skills for a new career.
• To bridge the gap after spending some time out of employment.
• To gain first-time work experience if you’ve never been employed before.

Work-focused training:

• Such as our Step Into courses: comparable to NVQ unit, and nationally accredited via OCN; suitable for gaining training and knowledge within professions such as retail, health and social care or administration.
• Employability skills such as work experience, work skills, personal development or equality and diversity.

Please note that if you find yourself back on Flexible New Deal after being in employment for between four and 26 weeks, that will count as your Work Boost. And if you were working on a work trial just before going on the Flexible New Deal, a Work Boost may not be necessary.

–

So that’s what A4E have got to say on the issue, at least in terms of their “Promotional Literature” – Personally I can’t help but think there are more than enough “Get out Clauses” built into that, to quite easily allow A4E to keep you stuck in a room during the entire process – or for example, allow them to say there isn’t a “suitable placement” available.

Initially I was going to try and cover this in one post, however it would be quite long, so I’ve decided to split it into three seperate posts:

• A4E – The Initial Interview. [This Post]
• Claiming back Travel Costs – Both from External Providers, and the Jobcentre itself.
• A4E – Online Assessments & Communities.

Once all the posts are created, I’ll edit the above list, to point to each post

As detailed a few posts down, Monday saw me up nice and early, ready to attend my local A4E Branch, for my initial interview. I had a phonecall the Friday before my appointmennt, asking if it would be possible to reschedule the appoitment to a slightly different time, so after an extra 45 minutes in bed, I arrived, open-minded, though with a cautious sense of scepticism, based on a combination of previous exerpences with JobCentre mandated Training Programmes, and having read some of the horror stories about A4E on the internet – Would this be another horror story in the making…?

To be totally honest, I’m still not entirely sure what to make of the whole process – First things first, the actual interview process. The first problem I had came with the  induction paperwork, as it asks to put forward a Next of Kin – Unfortunately I can’t actually put anyone forward for this, but, unlike past New Deal Providers who have asked, in my opinion, some quite rude questions about this “How come – Why haven’t you got a family member you can put forward”, the person I spoke to was understanding about it, and told me not to worry about it.

After filling out all the paperwork, I actually got to meet my “Career Coach” who I’ll have contact with for the next 12 months “Even if you get a job – You can’t get rid of me!“, which is a tad worrying, but I guess that’s due to a funding issue (Cynical old me ). Once the interview got started, my FND Advisor (I’m sorry, I don’t believe in the concept of a Career Coach, so I’m not going to refer to the member of A4E that I’ll be working with, as such, and instead sticking with FND Advisor) told me a little bit about what the whole FND Programme is all about. And it’s at this point, where I’m slightly unsure as to the process. I’ll bullit point some of the main points, then expand upon them in greater detail.

• The FND (Flexible New Deal) Programme lasts for 52 weeks. Even if I get a job next month, I’ll still “have contact” with A4E, until October 2010.
• Unlike New Deal, which involved going to an external provider (such as PPDG who I experienced last time), every day of the week, for xx months, A4E want me to attend “For a few hours / half a day”, Every two weeks.
• “There aren’t any fixed jobsearch targets – I.E. Apply for X Amount of Jobs Each Day”

The Programme lasts for 52 Weeks – Even if you get a job.

This is something that’s only going to come up, if I’m fortunate enough to get back into work, however it is a little bit worrying. While I’m all for supporting people when they get back into work (and I’ve got no doubt I’ll need a few pointers, especially with regards to ensuring that when I come off JSA and HB, I do so in a way that means I won’t run short of money until pay day), I think this should be under the agreement of both parties – Once I’m back into work, and settled, then as far as I’m concerned, I should be able to at that point “cut off all contact”, both with the Jobcentre, and A4E, and get on with things.

Attend once every two Weeks “For a few hours, or perhaps half a day”

This one is quite interesting, and one that might cause a few raised eyebrows, when people find out about it. Under the “Original” New Deal (from a Jobcentre POV – not the R00sevelt Original ), at least from my experience, it was broken up into a series of different “Stages”, however, ultimately, it just involved sitting in an overcrowded room, with appalling facilities, applying sometimes for any random job, in order to ensure that I met the mythical “Jobsearch target”.

However, when it comes to A4E – at least based on what I was told, it appears they’re taking a different approach. Because you still have to sign-on whilst on FND, they’re leaving the Jobsearch “responsibility” to the Jobcentre – which in a way makes sense. In order to be eligible for JobSeekers Allowance, you have to meet the qualifying criteria, one of which is that you’re actively seeking work – So I guess,  what A4E are saying is “If you’re still signing on, then you’re obviously meeting the JobCentres requirements when it comes to looking for work, which is good enough for us”.

Also from my point-of-view, I’m not sure exactly what A4E can do for me (nor are they – more on that later), but I do know, that sitting around in a room all day, is a fast track to losing all motivation, so at least this way it’s only for a limted period.

However, for people “on the outside, looking in”, I can understand that this approach is going to raise a few eyebrows. A4E aren’t exactly offering this “service” for free – they’re gettig quite a lot of money from the DWP, and by extension, the tax payer, and so the fact people are “only” expected to attend once every two weeks, is going to raise questions about what exactly they’re going to achieve with such limited contact.

There aren’t any fixed jobsearch targets.

I kinda made reference to this when addressing the last point, and while it’s a good thing, I’m still not sure exactly what’s expected of me, while I’m on FND. I’ve been given two “targets” to achieve before my next appointment (November 3rd) – bring a CV into the meeting, and complete a 107 Question online assessment (more on that later), but other than that, I’m not sure what’s required of me, other than the obvious – attend all the appointments, be respectful, etc, etc, which are all requirements of being a decent person day to day, so they’re not exactly difficult. To be fair, however, I’ve only been to one appointment, so there’s always the possibility that I’ll find out more as the “Journey” progresses.

So after being told a few details about FND, and how it differs from the “traditional” New Deal, we came to what I always refer to as the “Interesting” point of any interview, especially when it comes to this kind of situation

“Why do you think you’re unemployed – What can we do to help you?“

At this point I told my Advisor about my background, my criminal record, my working restrictions, and my aim for the future. Now in the past, when I’ve done this I’ve noticed a look of horror, then depression, appear on peoples faces, before being told “Well OK – We’ll sort you out”. Then, for the next 3 – 6 months, I sit in a corner “Jobsearching”, and not getting any support from advisors.

Well this time round I got both looks, but then everything went off-script:

“*Sigh* – You’re gonna be a bit fucking difficult aren’t you? – Well OK, not to worry. What I think we’ll do, is wait until you finish with Probation & The Police, then we’ll look into what we can do for you”

“But I don’t finish with them until March – What happens until then?”

“We’ll find something for you to do – don’t worry about it”.

That was basically it – I was supposed to complete a 107 question Assessment, however because I can’t use their computer facilities, I’ve had to do that at home (and what fun that was – so fun in fact, that it’s warranted a post of its own).

So whilst I’m not exactly concerned, I AM slightly confused. I’m not sure exactly what’s going to be offered to me, in terms of support, what I’m going to be expected to do, every two weeks, or what the consequences would be, should I not. However, I will say that I appreciated the way I was treated by the staff, everyone seemed friendly enough, and open-minded, and with regards the difficulty my background presents, well I appreciate the honesty.

There are a number of ways to rank brand values. One of the most important is the level at which a brand contributes to the market value of a public company.

24/7 Wall St. asked Corebrand, the brand research and consulting firm, to look at the top 100 brands based their contribution to market capitalizaton. Using this method, the hardest working brand was Hershey (NYSE:HSY), followed  by Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)

Corebrand described the process briefly to 24/7 Wall. St.

24/7 Wall St.: Corebard often refers to the brands on this list as the”hardest working brands”. How did you come to that description?

Corebrand: There are a lot of people measuring and examining the “strongest brands” or the “most valuable brands”.  Our opinion is that examining one without the other is somewhat meaningless.  How “strong” a brand is nice to know but not very relevant unless you understand how that strength benefits business.  Similarly, “value” is little more than a measure of corporate size unless you understand the drivers of that value and how to influence it. By examining the strength of the brand and it’s contribution to total market value, we can help companies and their leadership manage that strength and value over time.

24/7 Wall St.: Is there any advantage or disadvantage to having a brand value be a very large percentage of market cap in the present and as an indication of a company’s future performance?

Corebrand: The brand will need to be in balance with the rest of the company’s assets.  A company should strive to have it’s brand strong enough to fend off competitors or changing market conditions but not so strong that it becomes overly dependent on the brand as a single driver of value.  If a company can achieve and maintain its appropriate maximum strength without becoming over-dependent, it will see greater returns in bull markets and retain greater value in bear markets.

The list:

Each year, on a rolling basis, CoreBrand conducts 8,000 telephone interviews among business leaders to measure their perceptions of some of the world’s best corporate brands. Respondents are business decision-makers from the top 20% of U.S. businesses.

This senior business audience (VP level and above) represents the investment community, potential business partners, and business customers across 49 key industries. 400 respondents rate each company per year; 800 companies are measured each year. Our reports are updated on a quarterly basis to reflect any subtle changes.

CoreBrand collects financial performance data and communications investment information to understand the support behind and impact of these brands. These corporate brand strength ratings, as well as a company’s financial data are used in CoreBrand’s statistical model to determine the percentage of market capitalization that is directly derived from the corporate brand. Once that percentage is calculated, a dollar value is assigned to the corporate brand.

The percentage of market capitalization, attributable to the corporate brand. The percentage is then translated into a dollar value, based on the current market capitalization. The analysis is examined over time, to determine if the corporate brand is a growing or declining asset.

Douglas A. McIntyre

This isn’t a full-length post, just a quick update really. On Monday 5th October, I had to attend a Flexible New Deal Interview (it’s the post below this one), where, despite not being told much (due, seemingly, to the lack of information the Jobcentre had provided their staff with) other than the fact I’d be contacted within 5 days, by A4E, with more information.

Well, today’s October 14th, and so far – nothing. What is interesting, however, is that I had a missed phonecall Friday morning (the answer machine was flashing). Whoever phoned, didn’t leave a message, and, they phoned from a withheld number – wonder what odds I’d get on that phonecall being from A4E?

Either way, I’m gonna sign-on tomorrow, and if they ask me if I’ve been contacted, I’m gonna tell them I haven’t, and if they don’t ask, well then I won’t tell them anything

Reuters:   E-mails and the credit crisis will be key to the trial of Bear Stearns workers.

Reuters:  The approval process for Tengzhong to buy Hummer has started in China.

Reuters:   Philips Electronics (NYSE:PHG) beat expectations.

Reuters:   Liz Claiborne’s (NYSE:LIZ) decision to sell its brands at J C Penny (NYSE:JCP) should help both companies.

Reuters:   Citigroup (NYSE:C)) is expected to be fined $600,000 by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority over derivatives transactions that helped foreign clients avoid taxes on dividends.

Reuters:   Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) chief Bruce Wasserstein is in the hospital.

Reuters:   Small US firms are being crushed by the credit crisis.

WSJ:   CNOOC may offer a rival bid to Exxon’s (NYSE:XOM) for developing a Ghana oil field.

WSJ:   Companies are granting options to executives prior to M&A activity. The practice was done at Omniture (NASDAQ:OMTR), which was bought by Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), and Marvel (NYSE:MVL) ,which was bought by Disney (NYSE:DIS).

WSJ:   China is using futures exchanges to fight high commodities prices.

WSJ:   Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) said the T-Mobile clients using handsets powered by the software company’s products may loss key data on their phones.

WSJ:   The SEC investigation is hurting already struggling KB Homes (NYSE:KBH).

WSJ:   Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) wants the muscle of NBC Sports.

WSJ:   Lufthansa will offer advanced wireless connections on all of its long-haul flights.

WSJ:   Foreclosures are rising among expensive housing.

WSJ:   Investors are betting on Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares ahead of earnings.

WSJ:   Consumers are being asked to save more and spend more at the same time.

WSJ:   Wells Fargo’s (NYSE:WFC) takeover of Wachovia will allow it to expand its mutual fund business.

WSJ:   Financial firms are having to set aside money for off balance sheet funds.

NYT:   The Administration is upping attacks on News Corp’s (NYSE:NWS) Fox News.

NYT:   Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and IBM (NYES:IBM) are offering university students tools to handle vast amounts of complex data.

NYT:   E-commerce companies are getting better at encouraging people to buy things that abandon at online stores.

NYT:   Clicks on display ads are dropping quickly.

FT:   Blackstone (NYSE:BLK) will list a number of the firms that it owns.

FT:   The US pay czar is getting tough on AIG (NYSE:AIG) pay packages.

FT:   Many investors are urging Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)  to hire an outside chief.

Bloomberg:   Soros will put $1 billion into green technology.

Douglas A. McIntyre

As mentioned previously today saw me up nice and early, keen and eager, ready for my Flexible New Deal interview / appointment / induction / indoctrination at my local Jobcentre Plus. Upon arriving at 9:20 for my 9:30 appointment, I was promptly called over at 9:45am by a member of staff, who did her best to tell me all about the Flexible New Deal…

I say did her best, because she honestly hadn’t got a clue how the scheme works. This isnt’ just a case of me implying she wasn’t familiar with the scheme, she openly admitted it, whilst asking if I’d mind if she referred to a series of handwritten notes, that she basically read from during the course of the interview.

What’s concerning is that due to their lack of knowledge, “customers” (I honestly don’t understand why benefit claimants are referred to as customers, as by my understanding, that implies some kind of choice, something that tends to be lacking with regards the JCPsuch as my self are left actually knowing less about the whole programme, than they did beforehand. The only real thing that I know about the programme is that it’s “flexible” (I counted 26 occurances of the word during my interview) and that, somewhat worringly, I’ll be “participating” on the Flexible New Deal, under the watchful eye of A4E.

Based on my interview this morning, here’s what I can gather will happen over the next few weeks:

1. Within the next 5 days someone from A4E will phone me, to conduct an interview, over the phone. The lady from the Jobcentre says they think this process should take about 30 mins. The aim behind this is to gather enough background information on me, based on the interview, as well as information passed on from the Jobcentre, to decide the kind of help that I’ll need from the provider
2. Within 15 days of the initial phonecall, I’ll be “invited” to attend one of A4Es “Centres”, complete with their fancy Cafes, in order to begin the process of developing “My Deal” – the various agreements, restrictions, targets and objectives, that’ll shape my “individual” “flexible” journey.

And that, is about that. With the exception of a “work experience” aspect, which runs for “upto 4 weeks”, that’s about all I know about the whole scheme, based on what I was told by the member of staff. I asked her if there was any supporting information – a leaflet perhaps, maybe even a booklet? and was told that they were waiting for some promotional literature from A4E, which she promised to sent through to me as soon as it arrives.

So what, exactly, have I learnt from my interivew this morning at the Jobcentre. The interview where, and this is a direct lift from the letter:

We will explain that the Flexible New Deal will give you the individual support you need to help you find and stay in work.

I’m still waiting for that information…

Just a quick update – I’ve just finished my Flexible New Deal appointment and found out which organisation I’ll be dealing with, and it’s not promising.

I’m now a member of the A4E “Family”. Based on what I’ve read, and been told, I can’t help but think I’d be better off in Prison I’m also getting a feeling that now might be a good time to back this blog up, lest it suddenly vanishes from the internets.

Anyway, it’s just a quick update – I’ll make sure I post up my initial thoughts about the whole process later on this evening.

In just under 2.5 hours I’ll be sitting in the Jobcentre, waiting for my “introduction” to the Flexible New Deal. I used the speech marks because although the “Flexible” New Deal is being marketed as something new and exciting, I can’t help but think that when it all boils down, it’ll probably be similar to the “original” New Deal (from a DWP pov – not THE original New Deal )

Anyway, that’s all for the moment. I’m going to go and use my rowing machine, to help me wake up properly, then I’m off to the Jobcentre. I’ll post my impressions later on this evening.

As promised in a prior post, I’ve finished the data entry for the Kuchikomi (クチコミ総選挙) election predictions. The Kuchikomi election prediction algorithm was created by hottolink (ホットリンク) and it is based on internet chatter (口コミ). The algorithm parses through information on the internet from mass media to blogs on individual politicians and parties to produce a prediction percentage based on historical data. You can I guess think it as a souped up Google AdPlanner:

候補者個人に関するクチコミと所属政党に関するクチコミを集め、それぞれがどの程度得票率に影響を与えるかを過去の国政選挙をもとに分析し、予測モデルを構築して算出した値が予想得票率です。

In terms of very general results, Kuchikomi had about 80% of the single district seats correct (mind you, they didn’t calculate the proportional representation seat — a whole another issue). Both Asahi and Nikkei newspapers predicted more than 94% of the single district seats correct. But considering Kuchikomi is still new technology, 80% isn’t too bad. But as you’ll see, there are some major weaknesses.

Party Bias

First of all, Kuchikomi did really bad for minor parties (namely: YP = Your Party (みんなの党), SDP = Social Democratic Party (社民党), PNP = People’s New Party (国民新党)) and independents (= I). See the graph below as I plotted the predicted vote percentage vs the actual vote percentage of each candidate separated by party:

A perfect prediction will show a one-to-one lines. But for the aforementioned minor parties and independents, we see that Kuchikomi had very low predictions, yet resulted in considerably higher numbers (don’t worry about the mysterious acronyms, some of them are uber-minor parties). In the description of their algorithm, they mentioned that they gather information for both the candidate and the party. But it looks like they put more weight into on the party. For example, Your Party has former LDP members that were fairly well-known before the election. But because Your Party only formed as a political party three weeks before the election, Kuchikomi failed to gain sufficient information; thus, the low predictions. The leader (Watanabe Yoshimi) was predicted highly, but they had only two candidates in that district. Kamei Shizuka, the leader of the People’s New Party, was predicted to have 15% of the vote, but he actually got 60% — a semi-educated human being would have predicted that much better. In a similar vein, Kuchikomi just sucks for Independents. Either the media just doesn’t like to talk about them, or again, Kuchikomi doesn’t weigh the individual as much as the party.

Let’s look a little closer at the two main players: DPJ and LDP. The following graph is basically a mash up of the previous graph, where the red dots indicate the DPJ and the blue ones as LDP:

A one-to-one black line is passed through to indicate anything above it constitute underestimated predictions and anything below are overestimated predictions. The DPJ estimates are generally underestimated, and they are underestimated more strongly for lower prediction percentages. In general, the variance of the actual vote percentage is higher for lower prediction percentages. A paradox that happens here, is that even if Kuchikomi is underestimating the DPJ results in terms of percentages, it actually overestimated the number of seats that the DPJ won.

So what is going on? Well, it is hard to tell. One would think that underestimating the percentages would lead to underestimating the number of seats. This parallel can get broken if the prediction screws up (overestimates) big for a few seats, while underestimating moderately. I decided to plot the movements (difference between prediction percentage and actual percentage) on seats that were won by either the LDP or the DPJ and was predicted to win by either the LDP or the DPJ. Of course there are 4 cases: predict LDP -> observe LDP (upper right), predict LDP -> observe DPJ (upper left), predict DPJ -> observe DPJ (bottom left) and predict DPJ -> observe LDP (bottom right):

The red dots show the predicted percentage of both the DPJ and the LDP. The arrow protruding from the red dot “moves” to the actual vote percentage. So if the arrows going straight up, the prediction was underestimated for the LDP, and if the arrow is going to the right, the prediction was underestimated for the DPJ (and vice-versa). We see the red dots very close to black one-to-one line compared to the actual votes. This indicates that the predictions are a lot more flat than the actual results maybe due to lack of information. We see the arrows on the bottom right graph (predicted DPJ seat but actually went to the LDP) going vertically straight up. This of course means that the DPJ prediction was fine, but it fucked up on LDP results big time.

Now who were the candidates for the bottom right graph? Here is the list:

Aomori 2    “Eto Akinori”
Aomori 3    “Ooshima Tadamori”
Aomori 4    “Kimura Taro”
Chiba11     “Mori Eisuke”
Chiba12     “Hamada Yasukazu”
Ehime 1     “Shiozaki Yasuhisa”
Ehime 4     “Yamamoto Kouichi”
Fukui 1     “Inada Tomomi”
Fukui 2     “Yamamoto Taku”
Fukui 3     “Takagi Tsuyoshi”
Fukuoka 7   “Koga Makoto”
Gifu 2      “Tanahashi Yasufumi”
Gunma 4     “Fukuda Yasuo”
Hiroshima 1 “Kishida Fumio”
Hokkaido 7  “Itou Yoshitaka”
Ibaraki 4   “Kajiyama Hiroshi”
Ishikawa 2  “Mori Yoshirou”
Kagoshima 2 “Tokuda Takeshi”
Kagoshima 4 “Ozato Yasuhiro”
Kagoshima 5 “Moriyama Hiroshi”
Kanagawa 2  “Suga Yoshihide”
Kanagawa11  “Koizumi Shinjiro”
Kanagawa15  “Kouno Taro”
Kouchi 1    “Fukui Teru”
Kouchi 2    “Nakatani Gen”
Kouchi 3    “Yamamoto Yuuji”
Kumamoto 3  “Sakamoto Tetsushi”
Kyoto 5     “Tanigaki Sadakazu”
Mie 5       “Mitsuya Norio”
Miyazaki 2  “Etou Taku”
Nara 4      “Tanose Ryoutarou”
Okayama 1   “Aisawa Ichirou”
Okayama 5   “Katou Katsunobu”
Tokushima 3 “Gotouda Masazumi”
Tokyo17     “Hirasawa Katsuei”
Tottori 2   “Akazawa Ryousei”
Wakayama 3  “Nikai Toshihiro”
Yamaguchi 1 “Koumura Masahiko”

I’m not sure anything general can be derived from this list. I do however see former Prime Ministers (Mori, Fukuda, Koizumi (well, his daddy..)) and pols that appear on TV frequently (Kouno, Hirasawa, Gotouda) in this list. This might indicate a big-name bias that can’t be detected from more neutral mass-media articles (although I would think blogs would give some of this info). It could also mean that the LDP really pushed certain candidates at its last rush (many of the big-names also hold high positions).

How about the graph on the top right? The graph shows again the same movement: no bias for the DPJ but large underestimation for the LDP.

Fukuoka8   “Asou Tarou”
Gifu4      “Kaneko Kazuyoshi”
Shimane1   “Hosoda Hiroyuki”
Tochigi5   “Motegi Toshimitsu”
Tottori1   “Ishiba Shigeru”
Yamaguchi3 “Kawamura Takeo”
Yamaguchi4 “Abe Shinzou”

Former PMs (Abe, Asou), TV personas (Ishiba) and pols that made frequent media appearances (Kawamura, Hosoda).

Geo Effects

Another thing that I looked at, were prediction performances according to each prefecture and district. Each district has their own color that may influence media and blog-related chatter that goes onto the internet.

I first created an error measure as follows:

This basically gives me a proxy for how “bad” the prediction went. I put an exponential simply because I wanted to penalize mistakes at higher prediction percentages. The squared difference is to penalize large mistakes. What I did was calculate this measure for each candidate of each district. Then I can take aggregate statistics to explore how bad the predictions went given the location and the candidate.

In this case, I simply took the mean across districts and the candidates to arrive at a Prefecture-wide value. I can plot this (thanks Prof. Aoki (青木繁伸)) on a Japanese map to neatly see this information at a glance:

This basically shows poorly preforming predictions as a darker color. Is there some sort of pattern here? Again, it is hard to see. The error measure that I picked was fairly arbitrary, and I take the mean a couple times anyways — creating a major loss of detail. One thing though, Miyazaki had easily the largest error among the Prefectures. Can this be caused by media-crowding? Meaning, because the Governor caused a huge ruckus, maybe information let out about the election were superfluous.

A nice thing about these measures, is that we can play with them easily by making correlations with extraneous variables. Because I took Prefecture-wide statistics, I can regress it by, say Prefecture-wide population statistics:

We obviously see something interesting here. The Prefectures with high population has contain their error a lot more efficiently than the country lands. An error measure higher than 0.5 were observed at low population Prefectures (Akita, Gifu, Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Okinawa, Ooita, Shimane, Tochigi, Toyama, Yamagata) except for Saitama. Can this be called the urban bias? I am guessing this can happen because there are more media outlets, a larger educated populace and a stronger dependence to government policies for populated areas.

Of course this is all very general, but I decided to stop here since my lower back is hurting. But it is easy to see that further analyses can be done.

Last but not least: Gender

A quickie on prediction performance according to gender. Here is a graph that plots actual vote percentage minus predicted vote percentage, separated into the DPJ and the LDP.

The female politicians going above the zero line means that the predictions were underestimated. This is definitely a good thing since Kuchikomi has stated that they use regression results from past elections to get their predictions — meaning, this is slight evidence that people are more likely to vote woman than in the past. Then again, the LDP women predictions were spot on, so it might just be a DPJ thing. The women in general didn’t perform as well as the men .

ah, So?

Aside from being a statistical exercise, what was the reason for doing this? Once the election is over, who cares about these retrospective-I-predicted-better-than-you-chest-pumping?

The obvious benefit is that we learn a few things about the real world. Any prediction is at best, abstract extrapolations of the real world, and based on how things are setup, it’s a good learning process to articulate what is happening. In this case, Kuchikomi data was based on information from the internet. If there are such biases that I mentioned (flattening, urban, big-name, gender, party, etc.), even though it might be bad in terms of prediction performance, these imperfections tell us something about the elections.

The most important imperfection, IMO, was that the LDP was underestimated by a fair amount (not that the DPJ was underestimated). This is somewhat surprising considering that Kuchikomi was using much of the data from historical elections where it was always the case that the LDP won. For whatever reason, certain LDP politicians just did way better in real life. I called it big-name bias, but it could also mean that the Regime Change (政権交代) meme was played so much in the media that Kuchikomi bought into the hype. Conversely, it could mean that Kuchikomi got it right, but the media overplaying the Regime Change meme influenced voters more than anything online. These tidbits you would not learn from opinion polls because opinion polls grab data from real people instead of information from the internet.

Another reason we should care about predictions is for data checking. Recently, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight accused Strategic Vision (a polling company) of having some shoddy, suspicious polling (Nate has huge balls doing this alone). Predictions can be applied to different datasets, and it usually outputs a general trend. When one results in a departure from the trend, it gives some evidence to look into information rigging. This came helpful in the recent Iranian election.

Anyways, for me, the biggest coup was my new ability to graph Japan in R. I also have maps for the districts (but I can’t show both the whole country and the districts at the same time); thus, now I can create pretty pictures on 県民性.

Feel free to contact me if interested in the data, code or the map.