There could be a Santa Claus rally upon us in the stock market.

Maybe, maybe not.

Volatility still rules the financial markets so don’t believe anybody’s claim that there’s a “strong” chance of a blissful rally to end out the year.

However, there could definitely be one that puts a giant smile on your face. Just, do me a favor and do your homework before listening to the experts.

Stocks that look jolly between now and into the beginning of 2010.

PEP – PepsiCo

12/18/09 – $59.29/share

ROE (return on equity) – 33.17% in 2009

If it drops below $58, buy this baby. It should push itself upward in the first quarter of 2010 and definitely for Q2 after all the college football bowl games and NFL playoffs and Super Bowl are played out. Sales of all soft drinks usually spike around this time of year.

ADY – American Dairy, Inc.

12/18/09 – $20.34/share

ROE – 16.42% in 2009

This company has good numbers and seems ready to jump from its current price due to the high probability that milk will be more expensive in the first half of 2010. I think it’s a good commodity play in terms of stocks and higher milk prices.

JEC – Jacobs Engineering Group

12/18/2009 – 37.74/share

ROE – 16.42% in 2009

While this is a riskier bet, I like JEC a lot going into 2010 and beyond. However, I’m predicting a lot more government infrastructure projects to begin which is where Jacobs should get a healthy load of work from government contracts. Some would say this industry is hazardous for investors but I say JEC is undervalued and ripe for the taking.

HQS – HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries, Inc.

12/18/09 – $6.42/share

ROE – 13.84

I must admit this stock is frustrating for me, personally. I’ve purchased HQS at close to $9/share before and had to sell when it dropped. I will never recommend this stock again above $8 but at $6.50 with good books, it’s hard to pass on. Purely speculative here but I’m sticking with the tilapia farmers and feeling optimistic about the stock moving to the $8-9 range within a few months.

by Gary Larkin, for The Conference Board, December 3, 2009.

While the White House, The House, The Senate and a bevy of U.S. regulators are considering all kinds of financial reform proposals, there are two constant messages: do something very soon and focus on OTC derivatives markets.

In this week alone at meetings of the Joint Economic Committee (JEC), The Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee and The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, those two messages came across loud and clear from such witnesses as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Brooksley Born and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow in Economic Studies Robert Litan.

Geithner’s Testimony

In the case of Geithner, who this week testified before both the Senate Agriculture and Foreign Relations Committees, he actually had some breaking news.

“There are very detailed negotiations going on right now in parallel with what is going on in the House and Senate on financial reform on a global accord on capital standards [for banks], on bringing more oversight to the derivatives markets and for trying to build a framework for managing future financial crises more effectively,” Geithner told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday as part of an update on the G-20 financial reform proposals…(continue reading)

Bangladesh-Turkey direct air, banking links at earliest

Dhaka, Nov 20 (UNB) – Bangladesh and Turkey have agreed to introduce direct air and banking links between the two countries at the earliest possible time to promote bilateral trade and economic cooperation.

The two sides also underscored the need for direct shipping link, as a protocol was signed between the two countries in Ankara, Turkey on Thursday.

Finance Minister AMA Muhith and Turkish Minister of State Mehmet Aydin signed the protocol on the concluding day of the third session of Bangladesh-Turkey Joint Commission for Trade, Economic and Technical Cooperation (JEC) held November 18-19.

According to the protocol received here Thursday night, the two sides agreed to cooperate with each other so they could raise the bilateral trade to US$ 1 billion in the shortest possible time.

To achieve the target, they agreed to encourage their designated airlines to start direct flight between Bangladesh and Turkey at the earliest possible time under a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in 1997.

The two countries would also consider establishing direct banking links through state-owned banks, suitable private banks or other financial institutions on a priority basis.

Other major areas the two sides have agreed to cooperate are agriculture and irrigation systems, contracting services, tourism, telecommunications, infrastructure projects, SMEs sector development, and standards and testing institutions.

The two sides agreed to explore the possibilities of joint venture in the fields of shipbuilding, heavy machinery industries, electronic appliances, textiles, pharmaceuticals, RMG, jute and jute products,
and petrochemical products.

Both sides stressed the need for reciprocal visits of business delegations to promote bilateral trade, economic and technical cooperation, and also the need for holding trade fairs in each other’s country.

Bangladesh expressed interest to export medicines and pharmaceutical products. The country invited Turkish investors to relocate their labour-intensive industries like textile and construction to Bangladesh to utilize cheapest labour and other fiscal incentives.

Both sides agreed to examine the investment possibilities from Turkey in the oil, gas, refinery and power plant sectors in Bangladesh.

The two countries decided to hold the next meeting of the JEC in Bangladesh at a time to be mutually agreed upon.

Source: http://www.unbconnect.com/component/news/task-show/id-9090

Comment: Malaysia is seen as one of the most influential countries in the Muslim bloc. Outside of the Arab world, alongside Turkey, Iran and Pakistan it is seen as one of the big 4 Muslim countries. However the Malaysian economic miracle has been a recent phenomenon and Bangladesh is accelerating its pace of economic growth. Bangladesh is also working with Gulf Arab states who have increased their business acumen and improved their investment strategies. Within a few years Bangladesh may join Malaysia as one of the key players in the Muslim bloc.

One of yesterday’s big losers was Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) which posted mediocre 4Q earnings (poor margins) and then slashed its guidance for 2010.

Brandon Jacobs

 Less you aren’t familiar with this name, you should know that Jacobs provides engineering and construction (E&C) services to the defense, energy and infrastructure sectors. So if you want to build a new gasification plant or modify an industrial process, you give these guys a call. That being said, if you want a little insight into where capital spending is headed in the year ahead, at least as far as big ticket capital projects go, it pays to listen when JEC speaks.

As it turns out, JEC is not the only E&C that recently offered sobering guidance for 2010. At the end of October, Shaw Group, which has a big power business, disappointed the Street when it guided to lower revenues and earnings in 2010. Fluor followed that up two weeks later with a messy quarter and guidance that once again, came in below street estimates for 2010. In FLR’s case, there was also a big order cancellation and mgmt. was cautious when it came to predicting any big contract wins in the near-future. And that brings us back to JEC which said yesterday that several of its end-markets are recovering slowly and it doesn’t really expect a pick-up until the back-half of 2010.

So much for the argument that world-wide capital spending is a coiled spring ready to explode. Now just because the E&C guys aren’t doing cartwheels as they look ahead a year, doesn’t mean that capital spending around the globe is ready to fall off a cliff. Conversely, it does reveal a landscape where companies are still being cautious before committing to big capital outlays. And until these companies get a much clearer signal that demand is picking up, we will continue to see modest capital programs.

So who might this affect? Well, one company that immediately comes to mind is GE.

 Now I read a piece this morning out of Goldman where their options desk was asking investors to get long ahead of two GE meetings in December ….the first will outline business prospects for GE in the year ahead and the other will delve into GE Capital and its prospects in 2010 and beyond. The buy recommendation from GS was largely predicated on how GE has reacted in the past following these type of “outlook” meetings.

Count me in the camp that took this recommendation and threw it in the garbage. From what we have just heard from the E&C guys, I don’t want to bet on GE’s industrial Infrastructure business carrying the company in 2010. It’s not that GE is weak in this area but if GE’s customers aren’t buying, what difference does it make. Moreover, with consumer credit continuing to get marginally weaker every month and commercial real estate getting much worse every month, does anyone really want to tie their wagon to GE Capital in 2010?

24/7 Wall St. asked Audit Integrity to screen  companies with market caps of more than $3 billion to create a list of the firms that use the most transparent and conservative accounting programs and have ”best of class” corporate governance and management. This data is based on the The Audit Integrity Accounting and Governance Risk rating which is a forensic measure of the clarity and statistical reliability of a corporation’s financial reporting and governance practices. To create this data Audit Integrity applies over 100 accounting and governance metrics to a company’s publicly filed information.

After reviewing this data, 24/7 created a list of The Twenty Companies Wall St. Can Trust The Most. The firms are ranked based on their Accounting and Governance Risk scores.

The list represents companies that have practices which should be emulated by every public company that wishes to serve the needs of its shareholders by presenting accurate financial data and providing conservative management of shareholder’s investments.

The Twenty Companies Wall St. Can Trust The Most:

Methodology: The Audit Integrity Accounting and Governance Risk (AGR) rating is a forensic measure of the transparency and reliability of a corporation’s financial reporting and governance practices. The focus of AGR analysis is on identifying the measures most highly associated with fraud, and quantifying those risks for interested stakeholders in relation to company stock price, securities litigation, and major restatement probabilities.

Audit Integrity applies over 100 accounting and governance metrics to a company’s publicly-filed information. The resulting calculation produces the AGR, a percentile score ranging from 0 to 100, with corresponding ratings from Very Aggressive to Conservative.

Companies rated Very Aggressive or Aggressive have proven to be much more likely to face class action litigation and financial restatements, and to suffer severe equity loss. Conversely, those companies that have been consistently rated Conservative have been shown to be the most trustworthy.

AGR significantly improves the predictivity of traditional risk models.

The AGR and its underlying metrics are used by regulators, auditors, insurance companies, investment managers, and corporations, and are often incorporated in reporting by major financial media.

Douglas A. McIntyre

At last I’m home at 9pm and Ads is home at 9:40 pm.  This is a very tiring day for us, I could say…Why?  Kayo na bahalang humusga..

Our yesterday and today’s itinerary:

YESTERDAY

Happy 60th birthday, Papa!

Papa blowing the candle...

Papa and Mama

That was a whole-day affair yesterday.  Si Mama at ang kanyang mga alagad ang napagod ng husto dito.  Sobrang dami ng tao na dumagsa sa bahay.  Maraming salamat po sa mga nakisaya sa amin kahapon.  And higit sa lahat maraming salamat sa Lord sa biyayang binigay nya kay Papa.  (Discounted na si Papa ng 20% sa jeep, sinehan, gamot, atbp.  hehehehe).

At 6:30 PM, I left our house for the Friday Gig in our church.

Friday Gig, Oct. 23, '09

After FG, nakauwi na kami ni Ads sa bahay namin.  Pinagsaluhan namin ang mga natirang ulam at pagkain.  Hehe.  Late na kami nakatulog dahil nag-check pa ng mga emails and ilang sites sa net.  FYI, we didn’t sleep together.  She slept with my sister.

TODAY

6:30 – 10:30 AM

Ads and I woke so early, around 6:30 AM.  We would be meeting with Ms. Cherry of JEC for the signing of agreement of showing the “A Journey Home” in our church.  This was just for formality sake and no really legal terms with the agreement.  The contract signing was done at JEC church in New Manila, QC.  Present there were, Ads, I, Kuya Peter and Ms. Cherry.  FYI:  Some of the scenes in the movie were shot at JEC Church.  Btw, we fetched Kuya Pete in Alabang before we went to JEC.

10:30 AM – 2:00 PM

After the contract signing, Ads and I went to Rob Galleria and SM Megamall to pick up the replacement battery for my laptop at NEO Service Centre.

3:30 – 7:00 PM

Rehearsal in our church for tomorrow’s praise and worship.  As usual, we started late.

7:00 – 8:00 PM

We ate our dinner in Jollibee Liana’s.  So refreshing because that was the only meal we had after our breakfast this morning.

And now, 11:30 PM, I am going to wash up and afterwards…go to sleep.  Aga pa bukas.  Need to wake up at quarter to 5 AM for Sunday service.

Hindi nakakapagod ang araw na ito di ba?

Good night!